Pre-opening Comments on Monday November 17th
9:15 AM EDT: Equity Index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 10 points.
Response to the G20 meeting over the weekend was neutral. European equity markets were down about 2% and the Nikkei Index added 0.6%.
A notable exception was the Chinese markets. The Shanghai Composite Index added 2.2% last night and moved above its 50 day moving average. The Index has gained 22% since announcement of the $586 billion economic stimulus package.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Economic news released this morning also was mixed. Consensus for the October Empire State Index was -26.0. Actual was -25.6
Lowes reported higher than expected third quarter earnings this morning. Consensus was $0.29 versus $0.44 per share last year. Actual was $0.33 per share. However, the company offered negative fourth quarter guidance.
Target reported third quarter earnings in line with expectations. Consensus was $0.49 versus $0.56 per share last year. Actual earnings were $0.49 per share.
Citigroup announce plans to cut 50,000 employees. The stock is trading lower in pre-opening trade.
General Motors is up 5% in overnight trading. Traders are guessing that Congress will pass a bill this week to bail out the company.
Dell is down 5% in pre-opening trade. Merrill Lynch downgraded the stock this morning sighting a slow down in computer demand in the U.S.
Altera is up 3% in pre-opening trade. Goldman Sachs added the stock to its conviction buy list this morning.
Inflation reports are the economic focus this week.
Third quarter earnings reports are winding down this week
Trends
The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. the Up/Down ratio) improved slightly again last week from oversold levels. It improved from 0.05 to (28/452=) 0.06. Eight S&P 500 stocks broke resistance and 40 stocks broke support. However, most stocks breaking resistance moved from downtrends to neutral or uptrends and most stocks breaking support remained in downtrends. Net result was a modest gain in the Up/Down ratio. S&P 500 stocks remain in the Base Building phase.
Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks fell from 43.20% to 27.40% last week. It also broke below its 15 day moving average. The Index already has returned to an intermediate oversold level.
The Up/Down ratio for TSX Composite stocks was unchanged last week at (10/115=) 0.09. Three TSX stocks broke resistance and 24 stocks broke support. TSX Composite Index stocks remain in the Base Building phase.
Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks fell from 41.39% to 26.23%. It also fell below its 15 day moving average. The Index already has returned to an intermediate oversold level.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The S&P 500 Index fell 57.70 points (6.20%) last week. The Index remains is an intermediate downtrend and below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The Index broke below a four week trading range on Thursday, but quickly recovered to its previous trading range. Resistance exists at 1,044.31. RSI and MACD continue to recover from short term oversold levels. Stochastics are short term oversold.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average improved from 4.60% to 5.60% last week. Percent continues to recover from a record oversold level.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average eased last week from 4.20% to 3.20%. Percent continues to try to bottom from a record oversold level.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up 446.50 points (5.0%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down and the Average remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Support established on October 10th at 7,773.71 remains. Resistance is at 9,794.37. MACD and RSI continue to recover from oversold levels. Stochastics are short term oversold. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks fell last week from 43.33% to 36.67% and moved below its 15 day moving average. The Index already has fallen to an intermediate oversold level
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks fell from 29.69% to 21.08% and moved below its 15 day moving average. Percent already has declined to an intermediate oversold level.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The NASDAQ Composite Index fell 130.55 points (7.92%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down and the Index remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The Index broke below its October 24th low at 1493.00 on Thursday, but quickly recovered into its previous trading range. Resistance is forming at its November 4th high at 1,785.84. MACD and RSI continue to recover from oversold levels. Stochastics are short term oversold. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Russell 2000 Index lost 49.27 points (9.75%) last week. Intermediate trend is down and the Index remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The Index broke below support at 441.92 on Thursday, but quickly recovered into its previous trading range. Resistance is forming at its November 4th high at 551.02. MACD and RSI continue to recover from oversold levels. Stochastics are short term oversold. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Dow Jones Transportation Average lost 171.60 points (4.68%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down and the Average remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The Average remained above support at 3,283.12 set on October 28th. Resistance is forming at its November 4th high at 4,094.39. MACD and RSI continue to recover from oversold levels. Stochastics are short term oversold. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The TSX Composite Index gave up 540.25 points (5.63%) last week. Intermediate trend is down and the Index remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Support held at its October 28th low at 8,537.34. Resistance is forming at 10,199.78. MACD and RSI continue to recover from oversold levels. Stochastics are short term oversold. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is neutral.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above their 50 day moving average improved from 11.89% to 13.93%. Percent continues to recover from a deeply oversold level.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above their 200 day moving average improved from 4.51% to 5.74% last week. Percent continues to recover from a record oversold level.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Australia All Ordinaries Index gave up 280.60 points (7.00%) last week. The Index is in an intermediate downtrend and remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The Index broke support at 3,693.90 last week, but quickly recovered into its previous trading range. Resistance is forming at it November 5th high at 4,291.90. MACD and RSI continue to recover from oversold levels. Stochastics are short term oversold. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Nikkei Average gave up 120.62 points (1.41%) last week. Intermediate trend is down and the Average remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Support exists at 6,994.90. Resistance is forming at 9,521.24. MACD and RSI continue to recover from oversold levels. Stochastics is short term overbought and has rolled over. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Finally, an encouraging sign! The Shanghai Composite Index added 238.72 points (13.7%) last week. The Index is up 19.3% from support at 1664.92 set on October 28th. Intermediate trend is down and the Index remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. MACD and RSI continue to trend higher from short term oversold levels. Stochastics already have recovered to a short term overbought level. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has turned positive. The Chinese market is starting to anticipate benefits from its $586 billion economic stimulus program.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The London FT Index lost 154.17 points (3.51%), the Frankfurt DAX Index gave up 226.22 points (4.62%) and the Paris CAC Index fell 177/65 points (5.12%) last week.
The U.S. Dollar remains a prime focus. It briefly broke above resistance at 87.88 on Thursday, but quickly came under profit taking pressures. Support is indicated at 83.10. MACD, RSI and Stochastics are short term overbought and showing technical signs of rolling over. Commodities priced in U.S. Dollars remain under technical pressure and are unlikely to recover significantly until the U.S. Dollar confirms at least as short term peak. That hasn’t happened yet. Declining short term momentum is an encouraging sign, but additional technical evidence is needed to confirm a change in its uptrend.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Euro surprisingly held above support at 123.94 despite the move by the U.S. Dollar to a new high. Resistance is forming at 131.18. Short term momentum indicators (RSI, MACD and Stochastics) are recovering from oversold levels.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Canadian Dollar weakened with strength in the U.S. Dollar. Support is indicated at 77.00. Resistance is forming at 87.14. Intermediate trend remains down.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Japanese Yen has resistance at 109.25. Support is forming at 99.45. Short term momentum indicators continue to move lower from overbought levels.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Strength in the U.S. Dollar caused the CRB Index to break support at 253.85 last week. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels.
Ditto for crude oil! Significant technical signs of support have yet to appear despite an improvement in short term momentum indicators.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Ditto for natural gas! It broke support last week at $6.51
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Despite weakness in crude oil and natural gas prices, energy stocks on both sides of the border have perform well relative to the S&P 500 Index during the past four weeks, an encouraging technical sign for energy prices.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Gold continues to show early signs of bottoming. Support is at $681.00. Resistance is forming at $778.30. Short term momentum indicators (RSI, MACD, Stochastics) continue to recover from oversold levels. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive during the past four weeks. First target on a break above resistance is $881.
Ditto for gold equity indices! A break above 94.74 by XAU implies a target of 159.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Ditto for Silver! Support is at $8.40. Resistance is forming at $10.80. Short term momentum indicators continue to recover. First technical target on a break above $10.80 is to its 200 day moving average at $15.62. ‘Tis the season for the precious metals sector!
Base metal prices (e.g. aluminum, copper) remain under technical pressure. They reached new lows last week on strength in the U.S. Dollar.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Here’s a surprise! : Lumber prices are showing early technical signs of bottoming. They will complete a reverse head and shoulders pattern on a break above resistance at the $200 level. Short term momentum indicators recently have recovered from oversold levels. Lumber has a period of seasonal strength from October to mid February. The trade has been profitable in 9 of the past 10 periods for an average gain per period of 11.9%.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Lumber stocks such as Canfor and West Fraser Timber have recorded impressive gains since our Financial Post column on the sector on October 25th.
The yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries was virtually unchanged last week. Yield remains within a 12 month trading range between 3.25% and 4.32%.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Evidence of a thaw in the credit freeze was not encouraging last week. The yield on one month U.S. Treasury Bills remains stubbornly low. Last week, yield dipped from 0.13% to 0.06%.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The yield on three month Treasury bills fell from 0.31% to 0.15% last week.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The TED spread widened from 1.75% to 2.18% last week.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
On the other hand, the LIBOR rate continued to move lower. Last week it slipped from 1.62% to 1.48% and remains below levels reached before start of the credit freeze in mid September.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Other Factors
Volatility has declined from record levels, but remains elevated.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The height of volatility silliness occurred last Thursday and Friday. On Thursday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recorded an 11.4% range from its low to its high. On Friday, gold gained 5.32% and the Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index (XAU) fell 5.32%. At 3:30 PM EST on Friday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 88 points. It closed down 338 points, a whopping 426 point reversal (4.8%) in 30 minutes. In other words, almost the entire 5.0% decline in the Dow last week happened in the last half hour of trading for the week. No significant news was released during this period. This is madness! It has everything to do with emotion and program trading. It has nothing to do with fundamental analysis, technical analysis or seasonality analysis.
The G20 meeting over the weekend will influence equity markets during the next few months. The G20 meeting set the frame work for stabilization of credit markets. The agreement based on preliminary analysis included extension of powers to an international body called the Financial Stability Forum. This group will monitor and share information about credit conditions at G20 nations and will influence finance ministers toward common goals designed to support stability in currencies. The International Monetary Fund and World Bank, two U.S. Dollar backed institutions heavily influenced by U.S. government policy are to be given a diminished role. Net result is expected to be a lesser role taken by the U.S. Dollar as the world’s primary currency. The devil is in the details. Finance ministers are scheduled to meet next April with specific proposals within the framework.
Political influences on U.S. markets turn positive this week. A framework for agreement to bail out the auto industry is scheduled to reach Congress this week upon its return for a “lame duck” session ending before January 20th. In addition, discussions will start between Congress and President Bush on a second economic stimulation package valued at up to $300 billion. Also, talk about possible candidates for Obama’s cabinet has started. Most prominent rumor over the weekend was the probable selection of Hillory Clinton as Secretary of State to replace Condolesa Rice.
Timing and significance of the $700 billion TARP has become a question mark. Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson announced changes in the direction of the program last week. At best, distribution of the remaining $400 billion will be delayed. At worst, Congress may block or put strings on the $350 billion that has yet to be approved.
Most of the really horrible month-to-month economic data for the month of October already have been released. Other than the new house start report, data such as CPI and PPI could help equity and fixed income markets this week.
History is repeating itself. Seasonal influences for most sectors turn positive in October. Most equity indices and major sectors have bottomed and formed trading ranges during the past five weeks.
Technicals also continue to show continuation of a base building period. Up/Down ratios, bullish percent indices and short term momentum indicators indicate slow, but steady recovery from deeply oversold levels. Volume in equity indices confirms the pattern. Generally, volume in U.S. equity markets has declined since October 10th. On days when equity markets rose significantly (e.g. last Thursday), volume rose slightly.
The “cash and equivalent” bubble remains. Alas, the bubble has not broken yet. When it breaks, a flood of funds will flow back to equities and other fixed income security markets.
Question: How will the Chinese fund their $586 billion economic stimulation package? The answer is, “They will sell part of their $trillion reserve in U.S. treasuries and repatriate funds by selling U.S. Dollars and buying the Chinese currency. Net impact will be ongoing pressure on the U.S. Dollar between now and 2010.
Business media anxiety levels remains high. The “black crepe hangers” are talking about a depression worse than 1929. A quick comparison of U.S. equity market action during the 1929 to 1932 period shows that conditions are very different in 2008 than in 1929. The 1929 to 1932 period saw wild swings in both directions. The current period so far has shown only one wild downside swing . Also, economic conditions are different this time. A major reason for the prolonged depression in the 1930s was a trade war that disrupted world trade and credit. This time, world leaders are trying to work together to solve the credit crisis. Following is a chart showing what happened during the initial part of the “Dirty 30s”.
Please read a column in Saturday’s Financial Post written by Nick Majendie, chief market strategist at Canaccord Adams. The column is entitled, “Market Bottom Takes Shape”. Nick notes 10 positives indications that North American equity markets are forming a bottom. He concludes with a recommendation: Buy Canada!
What could go wrong? If the U.S. financial system deteriorates rapidly from current levels and major U.S. financial service companies (e.g. Citibank, Goldman Sachs, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan Chase) are pushed to insolvency, all bets are off. Keep an eye on Financial SPDRs.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
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The Bottom Line
Preferred strategy is to add to initial equity and ETF positions on weakness from current levels. Stick with sectors with improving technicals and favourable seasonal characteristics.
Adrienne Toghraie’s “Trader’s Coach” Column
Hope – Is It Good For Traders?
By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Coach
www.TradingOnTarget.com
In the popular culture, hope has come in for some serious attacks as the refuge for the desperate or as evidence of a lack of a grasp of reality. But is hope actually good for traders, especially in the current economic climate? Let’s take a look.
An emotional state
What is special enough about hope to make it meaningful for traders? It turns out that science is taking a new look at an old and largely ignored concept as a surprisingly effective tool in dealing with depression, motivation, self-esteem building, and problem solving – all issues that affect trading performance.
The general consensus is that hope is a feeling or belief in a positive outcome. In this definition, hope is defined as an emotional state and is considered to be different from optimism, which is viewed as a generalized expectation and positive attitude achieved through genetic wiring and a process of cognition.
Like many people, I thought that hope required a blind leap of faith or simply the act of wishing for something good to happen – and as a success coach, I have never been into wishing as a means of making things happen.
However, a pair of researchers at the University of Alabama, Drs. Dreer and Cheavens, have been studying hope from a different vantage point. They have been using a definition of hope developed by the renowned psychologist, the late Dr. C.R. Snyder, who spent his career studying the effects of hope on human psychology. In the Snyder definition, hope breaks down into two components:
1. A map to reaching a goal
2. The motivation and strength to follow the map.
In other words, according to Cheavens and Dreer, "If you feel you know how to get what you want out of life, and you have that desire to make that happen, then you have hope." This definition of hope is particularly empowering, it turns out, which is one of the first reasons that I have hope that hope can be useful for traders.
An antidote to depression
It should come as no surprise that people who are depressed have low levels of hope and those who are not depressed have higher levels of hope. But, what is encouraging is the fact that it is possible to increase an individual’s level of hope, just as it is possible to increase an individual’s skill in communication and planning.
Using a special questionnaire developed by Snyder, Cheavens can actually measure an individual’s level of hope. Snyder found that people with a low level of hope:
1. Victim of outside forces. They are guided by an external locus of control; ie, they believe that the good or bad results in their lives are controlled by external forces such as their environment, fate, chance, luck or some higher power and that they have little control over what happens to them.
2. Self-image enhancement. They use this external locus of control to protect “an uncertain sense of low self-esteem.” People with low hope are plagued with low self-esteem, which they conceal by attributing their success or lack of it to forces beyond their control.
3. Blame shifting. They shift blame onto others and use various mechanisms that allow them to avoid taking responsibility for their own mistakes, which results in excuse making.
Those with high hope:
1. Are guided by an internal locus of control; ie, they believe that the consequences they experience are a result of their own actions.
2. They see themselves as being able to set goals and make plans to achieve those goals.
3. They take responsibility for the consequences of their actions and do not shift blame.
What is clear from Snyder’s findings is that people with low hope have boxed themselves into a position of low hope by failing to take responsibility for their actions and for failing to set goals and make plans to reach them. If you feel that forces outside of you control your fate, you will feel that your life is out of your control and you will feel hopeless and depressed. You will be less willing to then take action on your behalf. The situation will have no way to improve. What Snyder implies but does not explicitly say is that low hope individuals may also rely on self-puffery, bragging, and awkward attempts to make themselves look good to cover their real feelings of inadequacy.
The differences between individuals with low and high hope are very important and lead to the benefits that are gained by having high hope:
1. Inoculation against depression
2. A sense of control in life
3. A mature respect for the consequences of your actions.
Snyder found that people with low hope were plagued with excuse making as well as what he called “self-handicapping” issues such as anxiety, shyness, and traumatic life events.
Raising your level of hope
What these dedicated researchers, as well as others in the field, discovered was that hope could be increased by a relatively simple set of strategies that guide a low-hope individual to achieve mastery in setting goals and then in developing the plans to achieve them. This strategy helps an individual to increase his ability to take responsibility, which in turn, increases self-esteem, a sense of control, and the emotional strength to repel depression and anxiety. To deal in the economic climate, traders would do well to have high hope and all the benefits that come with it!
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Tech Talk’s Weekly Column in the Financial Post
(Published in Saturday’s Financial Post. The original report is available by paid subscription through www.nationalpost.com )
A Golden Opportunity
A period of seasonal strength for gold and precious metal equities starts in mid November. Will the seasonal trade work this year?
Seasonal Influences
Gold, silver and precious metal equities have two periods of seasonal strength during the year: from the end of July to the end of September and from the middle of November to February. Today’s focus is on the mid November to February period. Gold gained in seven of the past 10 periods for an average gain per period of 9.8%. Silver advanced in eight of the past 10 periods for an average gain per period of 16.8%. The AMEX Gold Bug Index improved in seven of the past 10 periods for an average gain per period of 10.8%. Following is a chart showing optimal technical entry and exit points during the past seven periods for the AMEX Gold Bug Index.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Technicals Influences
Gold and gold equity indices currently have a negative technical profile, but are showing early signs of bottoming. Gold has an intermediate downtrend and trades below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Support recently was established at $681.00 U.S. per ounce. Short term momentum indicators (Relative Strength Index, Moving Average Convergence Divergence and Stochastics) are recovering from deeply oversold levels. Strength relative to the TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 Index has been positive since mid September. Silver has a similar technical profile. Silver found support at $8.40 U.S. per ounce on the same day gold reached its low. Gold equity indices based on the AMEX Gold Bug Index have a similar technical profile. The Gold Bug Index found support at 150.27 on the same day gold reached its low. The Gold Bug Index recently has outperformed the price of gold, an encouraging technical sign for both gold and precious metal equity indices.
Fundamental Influences
The outlook for the precious metals sector is tied closely to an outlook for the U.S. Dollar. Strength in the U.S. Trade Weighted Dollar has a positive impact on the prices of gold, silver and precious metal equities and vice versa. The U.S. Dollar is responding to events related to the credit crisis. Credit markets around the world quickly froze following the collapse of Lehman Brothers and AIG in mid September. Investors responded defensively by selling lower quality assets including equities and lower quality fixed income securities. Funds from their sale were recycled into U.S. Dollars in order to purchase highly liquid, short term U.S. treasury bills. Net result by the third week in October was a 15% gain by the U.S. Dollar, a decline in the three month U.S. treasury bills rate to as low as 0.03%, a 26% drop in the price of gold, a 39% drop in the price of silver and a 58% decline in the AMEX Gold Bug Index. Since mid October, central banks and finance ministers of developed nations have taken massive action to resolve the credit crisis. Some of their actions are working. For example, the one month LIBOR rate fell from 4.50% in mid October to 1.4% last week. However, most of their actions require time to implement. Although early signs of a thaw in the credit freeze have surfaced, the yield on three month U.S. treasury bills stubbornly remains at 0.20%. As confidence in credit markets returns, the flight-to-quality investment will reverse. Institutional investors will sell their low yielding, short term U.S. treasury bills and sell their U.S. Dollars. The precious metals sector will respond accordingly.
More evidence of a thaw is needed before currency markets and the precious metals sector respond significantly. That evidence could come as early as this weekend. A meeting of G20 leaders in Washington will provide an update on efforts made by central banks and finance ministers to re-inflate their economies. More news on efforts to re-inflate the U.S. economy is likely to be announced next week. The U.S. Congress is expected to reveal more information about a possible bailout of the U.S. auto industry. In addition, Congress is considering a second economic stimulus package valued at up to $300 billion. .
The chart on the U.S. Dollar is showing early technical signs of rolling over. Resistance has formed at 87.88. Short term momentum indicators are declining from significantly overbought levels.
Seasonal influences also favour weakness in the U.S. Dollar. The U.S. Dollar has a history of moving lower from mid November to the end of December when international corporations complete year end currency transactions.
What to do?
The easiest way to invest for the seasonal play is to own Exchange Traded Funds in the sector. ETF symbols include GLD for gold on U.S. exchanges, IGT for gold on the TMX exchange, SLV for silver on U.S. exchanges, GDX for gold equities on U.S. exchanges and XGD for gold equities on the TMX exchange. Horizon Beta Pro offers double leveraged ETFs. Symbol for the Gold Bullion Bull ETF is HBU. Symbol for the Gold Equity Bull ETF is HGU.
Bill Carrigan’s Weekly Column in the Toronto Star
Bill compares General Motors and Bombardier. Following is a link to his column:
http://www.thestar.com/comment/columnists/article/536594
Matt Blackman’s Blogs
Matt offers two comments this week. The first comment discusses, “At support, but for how long”. Link to the report is: http://tradesystemguru.com/content/blogcategory/34/68/
The second comment discusses, “The big bubble bust: Just how smart are attempts to stop it?”. Link to the report is: http://tradesystemguru.com/content/blogcategory/47/81/
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Disclosure: Except for iShares on the TSX Gold Index, Mr. Vialoux does not own securities mentioned in this report.
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.




November 17th, 2008 at 7:57 am
Hi Don
Please tell me , it is time to SELL WFT.
I have a small gain but I se that it has gone from 25 to 25 today.
Is the SEASONAL force exausted now?
Thanks
Nirmal
November 17th, 2008 at 7:58 am
Sorry Don, I made a type WFT is now 32.80
Nirmal
November 17th, 2008 at 8:34 am
Congratulations! Nice trade. Today’s Tech Talk mentions WFT briefly. Its period of seasonal strength is from the end of October to the end of April. Lots of time for additional upside. Watch lumber prices. They appear to be bottoming. A breakout above a base building pattern could add momentum to WFT.
November 17th, 2008 at 2:12 pm
The seasonality chart of lumber shows a huge discontinuity between Dec (96)and Jan (100) – is that just a distortion from the sampling method or is it accurate? and why??
Thanks,
Ken
November 18th, 2008 at 8:38 pm
Hi Ken. The numbers on the seasonality charts are not relevant, just the trend. All charts start at 100, but none end at 100.