Pre-opening comments for Monday February 2nd
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are off 14 points in pre-opening trade. Weakness was triggered by news that Moody’s has reduced the debt rating on Barclays. Bank stocks were notable on the list of stocks trading lower in pre-opening trade.
Economic data released at 8:30 AM this morning was mixed. Consensus for December Personal Income was a decline of 0.4%. Actual was a decline of 0.2%. Consensus for December Personal Spending was a decline of 0.9%. Actual was a decline of 1.0%.
The U.S. Dollar is higher this morning. Commodities priced in U.S. Dollars including gold, silver, copper and crude oil are weaker in response.
Mattel is trading lower after reporting lower than consensus fourth quarter revenues and earnings.
Applied Materials is trading lower this morning after the company issued negative guidance.
Aecon has offered to purchase Lockerbie & Hole for $8 per share in cash and stock. Value of the transaction is estimated a $220 million. Lockerbie & Hole is one of Canada’s top mechanical construction contractors. The combined company is well positioned to take advantage of Canada’s recently announced infrastructure spending program.
Outlook this week
The focus this week is on the January employment report.
Source: www.cnbc.com
Fourth quarter earnings continue to pour in this week.
Sources: www.cnbc.com for U.S., www.globeinvestor.com for Cdn.
Trends
The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. the Up/Down ratio) rose last week from 0.69 to (174/205=) 0.85. The remaining 121 stocks were neutral. Forty six S&P 500 stocks broke resistance (including Amazon on Friday) and 13 stocks broke support (including six stocks on Friday).
Bullish Percent Index rose last week from 46.00% to 51.80% and moved above its 15 day moving average. Intermediate trend is up. However, the Index already has recovered from an intermediate oversold level to an intermediate neutral level.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Up/Down ratio for TSX Composite stocks improved last week from 1.24 to (80/60=) 1.33. Nine stocks broke resistance and four stocks broke support.
Bullish Percent Index improved from 46.91% to 48.76%, but remained below its 15 day moving average. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index has recovered from an intermediate oversold level to an intermediate neutral level.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The S&P 500 Index eased 6.07 points (0.73%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Index briefly moved above its 50 day moving average last week, but was unable to sustain that level. Support exists at 741.02. Resistance exists at 943.85. MACD and RSI are neutral. Stochastics are recovering from a short term oversold level.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average eased from 41.40% to 39.00%. Percent remains at a neutral level.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average inched up from 3.00% to 4.00%. Percent remains stalled near record low levels.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average eased 76.70 points (0.95%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Average remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Resistance is at 9,088.06. Support is at 7,449.38. MACD and RSI are neutral. Stochastics are recovering from a short term oversold level. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks improved from 33.33% to 40.00% last week, but remains below its 15 day moving average. The Index has returned to a neutral level after briefly reaching an overbought level.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite Index stocks inched up from 32.51% to 32.85% last week, but remains below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains slightly oversold.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The NASDAQ Composite Index eased 0.87 points (0.06%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Index briefly moved above its 50 day moving average, but was unable to sustain that level. Support is at 1,295.48. Resistance is at 1,665.63 points. MACD and RSI are neutral. Stochastics are recovering from a short term oversold level. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Russell 2000 Index slipped 0.83 points (0.19%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index briefly moved above its 50 day moving average, but was unable to sustain that level. Support is at 371.30. Resistance is at 519.00. MACD and RSI are neutral. Stochastics are recovering from a short term oversold level. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Dow Jones Transportation Average slipped 0.20 points (0.01%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. The Average remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Support is at 2,909.29. Resistance is at 3,707.01. MACD and RSI are trending lower. Stochastics are trying to recover from a short term oversold level. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The TSX Composite Index improved 66.93 points (0.78%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 50 day moving average. Support is at 7,647.11. Resistance is at 9,505.72. MACD and RSI are neutral. Stochastics are recovering from a short term oversold level. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased from 46.09% to 49.59% last week. Percent remains at a neutral level.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average was virtually unchanged at 10.33% last week. Percent continues to try to recover from a record low level.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Australia All Ordinaries Index improved 177.80 points (5.39%) last week. Intermediate trend remains neutral. Support exists at 3,201.50. Resistance exists at 3,762.50. The Index is testing its 50 day moving average. MACD and RSI were neutral. Stochastics are recovering from a short term oversold level. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Nikkei Average gained 248.80 points (3.21%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Average remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Support is at 6,994.90. Resistance is at 9,521.24. MACD and RSI were neutral. Stochastics are recovering from a short term oversold level. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Shanghai Composite Index was unchanged last week. Equity markets were closed for the Chinese New Year. Intermediate trend is neutral. The Index remains above its 50 day moving average. Support is at 1,664.92. Resistance is at 2,100.80. MACD and RSI are neutral. Stochastics are short term overbought. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The London FT Index improved 97.17 points (2.40%), the Frankfurt DAX Index gained 159.41 points (3.81%) and the Paris CAC Index rose 124.78 points (4.38%) last week.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com
The U.S. Dollar improved 0.37 last week. The Dollar remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Resistance exists in a range between 86.81 and 88.46. MACD and RSI are approaching short term overbought levels. Stochastics have rolled over from a short term overbought levels.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Conversely, the Euro slipped 1.50 last week. The Euro is testing support at 123.94. Stochastics are trying to recover from a short term oversold level.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Canadian Dollar improved 0.33 last week. Support is at 77.00. Resistance is at 85.02. Stochastics continue to recover from a short term oversold level.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Japanese Yen eased 1.35 last week. Resistance is at 114.75. Support is at 105.70. Stochastics continue to trend lower.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The CRB Index was virtually unchanged last week. Intermediate trend is up. Resistance is at 244.31. Stochastics are recovering from a short term oversold level.
The Baltic Dry Index, a measure of shipping costs for commodities other than energy rose another 9.2% last week
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Crude oil fell $5.45 U.S. per barrel last week, but continues to form a base building pattern. Support is at $35.13 U.S. and resistance is at $50.47. A break above $50.47 will complete a reverse head and shoulders pattern. Seasonal influences turn positive in mid February.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of SeasonalCharts.com www.seasonalcharts.com
The idea on the following chart came from David Skarika, author of the paid subscription website www.addictedtoprofits.net . David was on BNN Television on Friday just before my appearance. He has an interesting approach toward equity markets and commodities. His interview on BNN can be seen at http://watch.bnn.ca/commodities/january-2009/commodities-january-30-2009/#clip134995 and at http://watch.bnn.ca/commodities/january-2009/commodities-january-30-2009/#clip134996
David observed that crude oil and gold prices occasionally can “get out of whack”. When extremes are reached, a unique investment opportunity occurs. During the past twenty years, crude oil became extremely undervalued relative to gold on three occasions when the gold/crude oil ratio moved above 24 ounces of gold per barrel of crude oil. When the ratio rolled over, crude oil proved to be an attractive buy that lasted for an extended period of time (frequently several years). Conversely, crude oil became extremely overvalued relative to gold on three occasions when the gold/crude oil ratio fell below 7.2 ounces of gold per barrel of crude oil. When the ratio recovered, crude oil prices moved lower. The ratio briefly moved above 24 times in December and subsequently slipped to 22.7%. Current trend for the ratio is up, but is showing technical signs of rolling over implying that now is an exceptionally attractive time to own crude oil relative to gold.
Another reason why crude oil prices are likely to recover is because current prices are significantly lower than break even costs at major oil producing nations. A recent study completed by the IMF noted that break even prices in U.S. Dollars required to avoid a country’s budget deficit were as follows: Bahrain: $60, Kuwait: $34, Oman: $78, Qutar: $24; Saudi Arabia: $54, United Arab Emerates: $24, Algeria: $60, Azerbaijan: $35, Iran:$90, Iraq: $94, Kazakhstan: $67, Libya:$53 and Venezuela: approximately $90.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The first technical signs of positive seasonal momentum in the energy sector appeared on Friday. U.S. gasoline futures broke above resistance at $1.25 per gallon and completed a reverse head and shoulders pattern. The period of seasonal strength for gasoline from mid February to the end of May has appeared earlier than usual this year.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Heating oil also is forming a base building pattern. A break above $1.669 U.S. per gallon will complete the pattern.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Natural gas remains the weak sister in the energy sector. Intermediate trend remains down. New intermediate lows were reached last week.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Energy equity indices on both sides of the border were virtually unchanged last week. The S&P Energy Index remains in a four month trading range with support at 310.56 and resistance at 420.95. Momentum indicators remain neutral. Fourth quarter earnings released to date have declined sharply from third quarter levels, but generally exceeded consensus estimates. More “difficult” fourth quarter reports are scheduled to be released this week. Look for the sector to bounce nicely after fourth quarter reports are out of the way. It’s time to start nibbling at the sector. Positions can be increased when additional technical evidence of seasonal momentum appears.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Ditto for the Canadian energy equity sector! The TSX Energy Index has formed a three month trading range between 176.40 and 246.65. Stochastics are trying to recover from a short term oversold level.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Gold recorded an exceptional gain last week, up another $30.70 U.S. per ounce.
However, technical signs of a pause in its intermediate uptrend have appeared. Gold is facing resistance at $936.30, $989.60 and $1,033.90 U.S. per ounce. Also, short term momentum indicators (MACD, RSI and Stochastics) are overbought. In addition, gold currently is overvalued relative to other commodities (e.g. crude oil, platinum). Also, gold has a history of underperforming equity market indices and other commodity prices from January to May. Thackray’s 2009 Investor’s Guide notes that platinum has gained an average of 8.3% per period during the past 22 periods from January 1st to May 31st while gold has gained an average of only 0.9% per period.
Seasonal Chart.com shows graphically that gold historically has a difficult time from the end of January to the end of June.
Chart courtesy of SeasonalCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Tech Talk remains an intermediate and long term bull on gold, but investment opportunities during the next few months appear more attractive in other sectors (e.g. Energy, Silver, Platinum, Palladium).
Silver has a more attractive technical profile than gold. Next technical target is $13.88 U.S. per ounce where resistance exists.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Platinum has the best technical profile among precious metals. Platinum recently completed a bullish double bottom pattern on a breakout above $896.00. After a move to $1011.60 U.S. per ounce, it returned to the top of the double bottom pattern and bounced higher. A break above resistance at $1,011.60 implies an upside technical target of $1,150 U.S. per ounce.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The 20 year chart on the gold/platinum ratio is revealing. Platinum is a sell when the ratio falls to 0.43 and recovers. Platinum is a buy when the ratio moved above 0.70 and rolls over. The ratio reached an amazing 1.00 in November and has rolled over.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Palladium also has an improving technical profile. A break above resistance at $207.95 U.S. per ounce will complete a bullish reversal pattern.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Gold equity indices remain in an intermediate uptrend, but are likely to find resistance near their 200 day moving averages. MACD and RSI are short term overbought. Stochastics are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Base metals (particularly copper) continue to show early technical signs of bottoming. Copper briefly broke above resistance at $1.6225 U.S. per lb. last week, but was unable to sustain that level. Copper remains above its 50 day moving average. The key to the seasonal trade in base metals and base metal stocks is an increase in demand for base metals by China. The Shanghai Composite Index as a leading indictor for the sector.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Other Factors
The VIX Index (i.e. Fear indicator) fell last week from 47.27% to 38.09% last week, but spiked on Friday to 44.84% on concerns about content of the U.S. economic stimulation package.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Additional technical evidence of a thaw in the U.S. Credit freeze appeared last week. Switches from U.S. treasuries into other securities were notable:
- The yield of three month Treasuries rose from 0.11% to 0.24%.
- The yield on two year Treasuries broke a bottoming pattern. Yield increased from 0.83% to 0.94%.
- The prices of 10 year U.S. Treasuries (measured by TLT, the long term U.S. treasury ETF) continued to collapse.
- The TED spread eased from 1.07% to 0.94%.
- LIBOR remained steady.
All charts courtesy of StockCharts.com
The technical profile for the U.S. financial service sector continues to show signs of bottoming. The S&P Financial Service Index is showing early signs of support at 108.30. Short term momentum indicators (MACD, RSI and Stochastics) are recovering from deeply oversold levels. MACD is showing positive divergence relative to the Index.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The technical profile for the Canadian financial service sector is less attractive than its U.S. counterpart. Concerns about large reserve requirements to be announced by Canada’s major banks when they report fiscal first quarter earnings at the end of this month are weighing on the sector. However, the first signs of potential bottoming action appeared last week. Short term momentum indicators are substantially oversold and trying to bottom.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Responses to dreadful fourth quarter earnings reports have been consistent:
- Equity prices move lower prior to release of reports.
- Earnings frequently are lower than consensus and repots are accompanied with negative guidance.
- After a brief period of weakness, equity prices recover.
Look for more of the same this week. Following are a couple of examples from last week:
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Currencies will continue to influence equity markets this week. The U.S. Dollar has recovered to the bottom of a range between 86.0 and 88.5 where resistance is formidable. Short term momentum indicators are overbought. Weakness will trigger strength in commodities such as copper and crude oil.
Political events will have a significant influence on equity markets this week. The U.S. economic stimulation bill appears before the Senate today. Weakness in U.S. equity markets on Friday can be attributed at least partially to concerns about a “Buy American” trade clause in the package. The House of Representatives included the clause in its bill passed last week and the Senate version of the bill is rumored to include the clause. On Friday, spokesmen in Davos expressed alarm about the provision and its potential negative impact on international trade. The clause potentially could trigger the start of an international trade war if included in the final bill. President Obama promised to review the provision. This is a pure partisan issue that was slipped into the bill by a small group of left leaning Democrats and it has little or nothing to do with economics or stimulus. Ironically, the clause could do more harm to the U.S. economy than good. Focus of the issue is its impact on trade in iron and steel. Canada exported $6 billion of iron and steel to the U.S. and imported $7.3 billion in 2007. Proposed trade restriction on iron and steel would be met very quickly by a retaliatory move by Canada. Disruptions in trade flow would hurt both countries, but the U.S. would be hurt more. Let’s hope that sanity wins over partisan political rhetoric. At the very least, the bill should indicate that the U.S. will honor existing trade agreements such as NAFTA, thereby exempting iron and steel trade between Canada, Mexico and the U.S.
News on TARP also is expected to be in the headlines this week. A “good bank, bad bank” proposal has reached a road block. “Toxic” mortgage backed assets held by major banks using a mark-to-model method are valued at close to $0.50 on the dollar. Treasury believes that a mark-to-market method of valuation reaches a value closer to $0.22 on the dollar. The banks are reluctant to sell assets at a mark- to- market value. Treasury is reluctant to buy assets based the mark-to-model method. Both sides are guessing the true value of these assets since there is no market for them. The valuation problem is a core reason for the current credit freeze. Last year, the SEC changed the rules on bank reserves by requiring the banks to provide reserves based on market-to-market valuations. The banks were forced to increase reserves to reach to satisfy regulatory requirements. Bailouts through TARP and other Treasury programs provided additional reserves, but the additional reserves have been insufficient to encourage additional lending.
Cash positions sitting on the sidelines remain huge. Early evidence of a thaw in the credit freeze already has appeared. Cash from the sale of treasuries will start to trickle back to into the equity market shortly.
Economic news remains dismal, but is about to change. The focus this week is on the January employment report to be released on Friday. Consensus is a decline of 500,000 people. However, December data is likely to be revised higher and consensus for January likely is too low given the number of layoffs announced by major U.S. companies during the past two weeks. And now the good news! Economic reports for January likely will be the low point for the current economic cycle. Data beyond January will be “less bad” and will set the stage for a significant recovery in equity markets. Early signs of this phenomenon appeared last week when Leading Economic Indicators and U.S. real GDP came in better than consensus.
The technical picture for broadly based North American equity indices and sectors was neutral last week. Most indices and sectors bottomed on November 20th, recovered to neutral technical levels similar to the half way point of an intermediate upswing and have at least one more good move on the upside before reaching an intermediate overbought level.
Seasonal influences are relatively negative in February. The S&P 500 Index has slipped in seven of the past ten periods. Average loss per period was 1.83% per period. February was the second worst month of the year (August was the worst). The TSX Composite Index rose in five and fell in five of the past ten periods. Average loss per period was 0.13%. February was the fourth weakest month of the year.
According to Thackray’s 2009 Investors’ Calendar, top performing sectors in the month during the past 19 periods were (in order of significance): Energy, Materials and Consumer Staples. Worst performing sectors were Information Technology and Telecom. Best performing sub-sectors were Oil & Gas Exploration and Production, Semiconductors and Metals & Mining.
The Bottom Line
Additional upside potential by North American equity market remains. However, time for the recovery (possibly to April) and upside potential is significantly less interesting than opportunities that appeared in late November. Selected sectors with favourable technical, fundamental and seasonal prospects remain attractive.
Tech Talk’s Weekly Column in the Financial Post
(Originally available on Saturday at www.nationalpost.com )
The Super Bowl Indicator and Other Stock Market Myths
Traders are cheering for a victory by the Arizona Cardinals over the Pittsburg Steelers in the Super Bowl on February 1st. The Arizona Cardinals are the National League champions. According to the Super Bowl indicator, the S&P 500 Index will rise for the remainder of the year if the winning team is a National Football League team. Conversely, the S&P 500 Index will fall if the winning team is an American Football League team. Adherents claim that the indicator has an 80% success rate.
The Super Bowl indicator is one of many indicators and myths that are fun to discuss, but have absolutely no predictive value. All may have a high correlation with the S&P 500 Index, but they do not have a “cause and effect” relationship based on significant recurring annual events.
Academic research has discovered several other indicators that show a strong positive correlation with the S&P 500 Index. The indicator that had the highest correlation is butter production in Bangladesh. Other indicators with a strong positive correlation include ice cream production and airline travel.
Other myths that frequent U.S. equity markets at this time of year are the “First five trading days in January” myth and the January myth. Both myths suggest that a gain by the S&P 500 Index during these periods will lead to higher markets for the rest of the year. Conversely, a decline in the S&P 500 Index during these periods will lead to weak markets for the rest of the year. Both myths are backed by data that is highly correlated to the S&P 500 Index. This year, the myths cancelled out each other. The S&P 500 Index moved higher during the first five trading days of January and moved lower for the month of January. Both myths are useless because they are not related to significant annual recurring events.
Some myths are not even supported by highly correlated data. The classic example is the “Sell in May and go away” myth. The myth suggests that U.S. and Canadian equity markets decline from the end of May to the end of September. Therefore, equity investors should sell in May and stay away from equity markets until the end of September. Ironically, root of the myth is based on an actual seasonal influence backed by annual recurring events. The myth originated from seasonal weakness in base metal prices and base metal equities from May to September. Base metal smelters in Europe shut down operations for an extended holiday in July and August. Demand for base metal concentrates begins to contract in May and recovers in September. To this day, base metal prices and base metal stocks continue to show this seasonal pattern, but the pattern has become muted over the years. Market share of base metal smelting capacity in Europe has declined while market share in the Far East and South America has increased. The “Sell in May and go away” phrase became adopted by the media over the past decade, but with a slightly different twist. The phrase was transformed into expectations for weakness by broadly based indices such as the TSX Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index from the end of May to the end of September. The myth is not supported by fact. The S&P 500 Index has gained in four of the past 10 periods and the TSX Composite Index has gained in seven of the past ten periods. Performances of North American equity indices are random from the end of May to the end of September because significant annual recurring events are not sufficient during this period to influence markets.
In contrast, the period from the end of September to the end of April/May usually is impacted favourably by a series of well defined annual recurring events that influence equity markets. They include:
- Negative corporate guidance released with third quarter reports in October/November when over-estimated annual results become apparent.
- Tax loss selling pressures into December.
- Relief of tax loss selling pressures near the end of December.
- The Santa Claus rally.
- Investment of year end bonuses in January.
- Investment of RRSP contributions in Canada into March and investment of 401 K contributions in the U.S. into April. Adding to this event in Canada this year is contributions into the Tax Free Savings Account.
- A tendency by Chief Executive Officers to offer hopeful and encouraging news in annual reports and at annual meetings.
The TSX Composite Index has advanced in nine of the past 10 periods from the end of September to the end of May. The S&P 500 Index has gained in eight of the past ten periods.
Following is data showing random performance of the TSX Composite Index and S&P 500 Index from the end of May to the end of September during the past 10 periods:
Matt Blackman’s Blog
Matt talks “Of barometers and emerging markets”. Following is a link to his blog:
http://tradesystemguru.com/content/blogcategory/34/68/
Mr. Vialoux’s appearance on BNN Television on Friday
Following is a link to the interview:
http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call/january-2009/market-call-january-30-2009/#clip135000
http://watch.bnn.ca/market-call/january-2009/market-call-january-30-2009/#clip135001
Hap Sneddon’s appearance on BNN Television
Hap Sneddon from CastleMoore is scheduled to appear today at 8:50 AM EST. ![]()
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Disclosure: Mr. Vialoux does not own securities mentioned in this report.
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report are for information only.
They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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February 2nd, 2009 at 7:05 am
Don,
What sort of seasonality does the infrastructure sector exhibit? I have been holding CIF and SNC thinking they will be leading out of the current slowdown with the amount of government money globally being put into infrastructure projects.
Thanks
Martin
February 2nd, 2009 at 8:35 am
Hello Don,
Great show on Friday. Is there a book you recommend on TA? Perhaps you have one in the works and I would go for that!
February 2nd, 2009 at 9:02 am
Hi Dave. Lots of good books on technical analysis. Edwards and McGee’s book still is the classic. John Murphy’s books are excellent. Go to http://www.stockcharts.com for background. Brooke Thackray’s 2009 Investor’s Guide is a good book on seasonality. Jay Kaeppel recently released a book entitled, ” Seasonal Stock Market Trends”. In my opinion, it’s a rip off of Brooke’s book, but offers a few new ideas (almost identical format to Brooke’s 2007 Investors guide). Buy Brooke’s book for less than half the price. Best source for technical analysis books is the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts. It has an extensive library. Books, videotapes, DVDs, etc. are free if you are a member. Check out http://www.csta.org for information.
P.S. Yes, Brooke and I are in the early planning stage of writing a book together.
February 2nd, 2009 at 9:11 am
Hi Martin. Sorry, have not completed a seasonality study on the infrastructure sector. Most infrastructure indices and their ETFs are relatively new and have not be around long enought to complete a study. Technically, the sector has a positive profile despite moving sideways during the past two months. Intermediate uptrends in stocks such as SNC Lavalin and Aecon remain intact. The next major news event expected to influence the sector favourably is a series of contracts to be announced this spring on infrastructure programs announced by Canada, the U.S., Europe, China etc. Preferred strategy for the sector and its stocks is to continue to hold/ buy on weakness.
February 2nd, 2009 at 10:16 am
Don, this is a very helpful entry today. I found this to be particular disturbing:
“The clause potentially could trigger the start of an international trade war if included in the final bill.”
To Martin, I believe there will be a lag for infrastructure as it takes time for money (gov t expendature announced recently) to flow in this sector.
February 2nd, 2009 at 5:19 pm
Hi Don,
I’m confused. Your text states “The TSX Composite Index has advanced in nine of the past 10 periods from the end of September to the end of May. The S&P 500 Index has gained in eight of the past ten periods.” But when I consult the table following the text I count 6 out of 10 for the S&P and 7 out of 10 for the TSE. Am I missing something ?
February 3rd, 2009 at 10:12 am
To Jim : reread the table title vs the text. They are opposite seasons. Text: Sept to May. Table: May to Sept.
February 3rd, 2009 at 2:38 pm
Thanks Viraj !