Comments on: Tech Talk for Tuesday April 21st 2009

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 15:02:35 +0000

Hi Fred. U.S.10 year Treasuries have tested the 3.00% yield level on several occasions during the past three months. Resistance is at 3.07%. Resistance is unlikely to be broken in the short term because the Federal Reserve has pledged to buy treasuries in the 2 to 10 year maturity range. A break above resistance would be ominous for equity and bond markets because it would imply either that the Federal Reserve has abandoned its purchase program or international investors (notably the Chinese) are significant sellers.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 14:54:12 +0000

Hi Ken A. Following is a link to an Elliott Wave count released last night by Anath Acharya through Matt Blackman’s site. The comment supports a short term upside move by the S&P 500 followed by a significant correction.
http://tradesystemguru.com:80/content/blogcategory/39/73/

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 14:49:08 +0000

Hi Ken. Seasonal influences on gold currently are neutral. The next period of seasonal strength is from July to September. Technicals are mixed. Support at its 200 day moving average at $860 is likely. Short term momentum indicators are neutral to slightly oversold. Gold stocks continue to struggle. XGD broke support last week. GDX is testing support. Bullish Percent Index for XGD recorded a sell signal three weeks ago and continues to trend lower from an intemediate overbought level. Be patient. Chances of a seasonal trade this summer are higher than average.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 14:42:40 +0000

Hi John Kys. All Financial Post columns that include “What to do” sections are published in Tech Talk each Monday. Back editions of Tech Talk are available in the archive.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Wed, 22 Apr 2009 14:40:04 +0000

Hi Blondin. Sorry, I have lost contact with Iain Fraser.

By: dj

dj — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 21:42:57 +0000

Ken good post…too bad the search didn’t find it for Stag_de_flation (sp)?

By: Allan M

Allan M — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 21:33:17 +0000

Don
Regarding oih, todays range was outside yesterday and it closed above yesterdays high. Is this a very bullish sign?

thx Allan M.

By: Fred

Fred — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 19:00:32 +0000

Don, I note the US 10 year treasuries yield on Stockcharts shows an almost perfect reverse head and shoulders pattern since about April 10th. But I don’t know exactly how to interpret that. Since it is the yield, not the value, does this mean the yield can be expected to rise?

I was reading Thackray’s 2009 Investor’s Guide for May, particularly the use of the 10 year treasuries yield as an indicator. It does look ominous for equities going forward into the summer, since Thackry says the indicator has been successful 13 out of 15 times.

By: Heinz S

Heinz S — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 18:13:33 +0000

To: KEN A
Thanks for the update.

By: Stagdeflation

Stagdeflation — Tue, 21 Apr 2009 17:27:43 +0000

Ken, why dont you read past comments and posts instead of bugging Don about the same old stuff….