Comments on: Tech Talk for Monday June 22nd 2009

By: Amelia

Amelia — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 03:11:46 +0000

Canuck2004
Thanks for your sage advice. I will be reading Swenlin regularly now. My problem for the time being is whether to sell my core dividend stocks: pipelines, utilities, consumer staples and some industrials. I bought them for the rising yield initially. What do you think? I will be dumping my energy trusts for now and get back in at a higher yield when the fundamentals look better.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:03:19 +0000

Hi Yin. Agrium has support at $38.20. Downside risk for the TSX Composite Index is to 9,100.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:03:18 +0000

Hi Yin. Agrium has support at $38.20. Downside risk for the TSX Composite Index is to 9,100.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Tue, 23 Jun 2009 01:02:01 +0000

Hi Jason. The Biotech sector is the key sector discussed in tomorrow’s Tech Talk. Recommendation is to wait before entering for a seasonal trade.

By: Yin

Yin — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 21:52:05 +0000

Hi Canuck 2004

Where do you thing the TSX is going? By looking at the chart, it looks like it has some good support at 9000ish. What do you think?

By: canuck2004

canuck2004 — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 21:10:58 +0000

Amelia

Swenlin posts every week or two… I always read his charts as he has been quite accurate so far…. but support at 670 is a pessimistic retest of the March 9th low. I don’t know if we will get there… but today’s TSX big red candlestick says probably… TSX broke 50 DMA… and seems like it wants the 200 DMA. We will see… Healy and Tardif both said we will see the March lows again.

I was stopped out of one my core pipeline trusts late last week… not in a rush to re-enter. Moved my other stops higher…. Even have stops on all my various Short Term Bond & Corps. ETFS. I have no intention of giving the market more than 4-5%, even less on the Bond ETFs. The safest is the CMR-TSX., it won’t do much, but one can still margin it at 50%.

I watch the VIX daily, but you should do a “weekly” 3 year chart on the WTIC (Stockcharts: $WTIC). Note the break-down with a “death cross”… and a 60% or so retracement from this year’s low to last year’s peak…. Very strong resistance at 73.90 and now rolling over. This longer term chart looks very bearish to me… in any case, fundamentally it makes no sense for oil to be where it is when the world is awash with oil and demand dropping… as it always does in a recession. I think what we have just seen is a typical “dead cat” bounce from peak to trough, and back more than half-way again… and the usual follow thru is a further break down to retest the low.

In my experience, indices tend to form very simple bottoming patterns…. a herd instinct I suppose… double bottoms, inverse head and shoulders, stuff like that. A 660 followed by a 670 double bottom would be very bullish…. I expect to see something of the sort eventually. Once support is firmly established, one can be more secure as to the risk/reward profile of the markets.

Since March 9th it’s been a pure gamble. The trend is your friend until it isn’t anymore…. And now it seems we have shifted trends.

By: Yin

Yin — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 20:00:07 +0000

Hi Don

I have question regarding Agrium. It looks like it has support at $44 and $40. Where do you think is a good place to put my order? Thank you every much.

By: Stagdeflation

Stagdeflation — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 18:52:12 +0000

Please dont start discussing global warming here – otherwise we might be flooded with comments by the minority of naysayers…

By: Amelia

Amelia — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 18:19:30 +0000

Canuck2004
I used a similar (but much simpler) analysis as the one you posted to see support at 880 and I am tending to agree with Swenlins assertion that a medium term correction has begun. I look at the VIX and the flow of institutional money it implies (many institutional investors must use VIX thresholds to indicate their degree of market participation), the Yen Euro cross and spreads like LIBOR OIS and corporate bond spreads. Volatility for now.

By: Bubbles

Bubbles — Mon, 22 Jun 2009 16:26:13 +0000

Don, I read all the material on your educational section and refer to your site daily. Do you also incorporate the Decennial and 4 year US Presidential Cycle in your investment strategy? Have you read those Harry Dent books and if yes…what do you think? Your site is great!