ShareThisHi peeps! I feel comfortable addressing you all in such an informal nature now that we have developed this strong bond with one another. So “how you doin?”
So just to reiterate, Daddy Vialoux has run off for a while, and Jonny Vialoux (that’s me) is in charge. He’s actually just taking a much needed break, something he regularly does this time of year to gain exposure to something other than the markets. He will be back, and will be checking in with updates, so enough with the hate mail people. No, just kidding…everyone has been very nice so far. I’m just dreading the moment you figure out that your portfolio is going into the “pooper” because you were too busy reading my comments than researching your own seasonal plays.
There have been a few questions directed my way via email and blog comments, and although I don’t have time to address them all in great detail, I will touch on them briefly.
1. Are you thinking of providing the reports in alternative formats such that they can be accessed on wireless devices?
I have accessed the reports at TimingTheMarket.ca on my iPod Touch and they came out okay. I have been desiring to create a mirror site entirely devoted to accessing the reports through a wireless device, such as a Blackberry or iPod. I’ll see what I can do over the summer.
2. Is it time to buy in for the seasonal play in Gold and Agriculture?
I’m keeping an eye on opportunities to buy into these plays myself. Considering all of the market makers are on vacation, including Donny V, it is no surprise that the market is taking a break as well after trying to gain the approval of its new leader and chief, Barack Obama (he does still have rein over the World, doesn’t he, or is it just the United States? Can’t really tell.) The little market is tired…poor little guy.
Anyways here is the seasonality for the two sectors:
Agriculture – According to Thackray’s 2009 Investor’s Guide, the agriculture sector has a period of seasonal strength from August 1st to December 31st. The trade has been profitable in 11 of the past 14 periods for an average gain per period of 17.4%.
Gold – According to Thackray’s 2009 Investor’s guide gold has a period of seasonal strength from July 12th to October 9th. The trade has been profitable in 18 of the past 24 periods.
3. Is it possible to setup a user forum so that viewers can interact rather than posting comments in the blog?
Guess what, there is! I figured titling it the Tech Talk Forum might be a little obvious, but it was a risk I was willing to take. Anyways, that question gave me an idea of highlighting some of the comments being posted in the forum. At the bottom of this post are some of the comments and questions investors like you are leaving.
4. [Email] Is DV really gone?
Yes
5. [Email] Can we have Donny back?
No
6. [Email] Would you like a herbal supplement that will make the girls go wild?
Yes…yes I would (although I don’t think this question came from a Tech Talk viewer)
Today’s Post: Gold and Gold Stocks Are Starting To Shine
Latest Forum Comments:
[feedsnap]http://timingthemarket.ca/forum/YaBB.pl?action=RSSrecent[/feedsnap]
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: Gold, trading in agriculture, trading in gold
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Discussions from the Tech Talk Forum:
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July 9th, 2009 at 6:38 am
My thanks to everyone who responded with valuable insight about Agrium yesterday. Much appreciated. As a result of all the comments, I’m now wondering whether it might be good to short Agrium and for how long ? Additionally, is anyone putting in shorts on any other equities that I could also benefit from ?
I’ve never used shorts before. I realize its very risky. However, I figure if there is an overall bearish feeling in the market, perhaps there is a worthwhile short out there that might help me mitigate some paper loss in the short term. Look forward to some of your opinions including one from our homeslice JV.
I must add that I am very pleased to have discovered DV and this oh so valuable website.
Cheers,
Richard
July 9th, 2009 at 7:15 am
Is Don going to be giving his annual talk at the Vancouver chapter of the CSTA while on vacation this year? If so, I would be interested to know when.
July 9th, 2009 at 7:16 am
Andrea, regarding uranium seasonality, this is information from Don’s presentation in Vancouver last summer: Period of seasonal strength is from end of July to end of February. Profitable 7 out of last 10 years (based on Cameco up to July 2008). Average gain per period 18.4%.
July 9th, 2009 at 7:34 am
Richard:
If you’re bearish on the market then try HIX — liguid, no margin calls, limited volatility. If you want to short individual companies then I would suggest finding one whose business is failing (e.g. losing contracts) as opposed to one that is merely getting bounced around by changes in commodity prices.
jordy
July 9th, 2009 at 7:40 am
Hi Richard.
A couple of other things you can consider is buying puts (limiting your exposure) or, as Jordy points out, one of the bear ETFs (Horizon, Direxion, etc.). If you follow Thackray’s guidance, the window is a short one on Agrium.
July 9th, 2009 at 7:49 am
Hi Richard,
Also, money earned from shorting stocks in Canada, is considered income, not capital gains. I’m not against shorting, this is just an observation.
Dave
July 9th, 2009 at 8:19 am
Thank you for your excellent tips. Jordy – did’nt think of that, and tips of what might be a good short in that sense ? Michael – what bears are you holding and how bearish is Gold expected to be in the next month, would that be a good short.
Dave – Was’nt aware of that, thanks for the tip. In that case I guess its best to short in my TFSA.
-R
July 9th, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Maybe we can get a 2 for 1 deal on those herbal supplements…You think they have seasonal characteristics?
I’d also be interested in knowing if Don will be making a trip out to the West Coast…hopefully not when I’m on vacation in NY though.
July 9th, 2009 at 12:58 pm
Hi Richard.
It’s really difficult to suggest any shorting without knowing much about your circumstances, and since I’m not registered to give advice, it’s best for me not to provide such. Nonetheless, I’m bearish on the S&P 500 and just bought HSD on the TSX. Over the longer term, though it may be too early, I’m very bearish on US treasuries. As for gold, it seems to be stuck in the lower end of a trading range; therefore, I’m staying away from shorting it.
July 10th, 2009 at 6:40 am
Regarding to post about short selling taxed as income:
I am not an accountant, but my understanding is that short sales are taxed as a capital gain, UNLESS you are a trader, in which case all capital gains (from short and long transactions) are taxed as income. Does any know for sure?
On the same subject, the thing to be very careful with short seliing is that if a dividend is paid, you have to pay the dividend amount without getting a dividend payment to offset it.