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October 1st 2009
S&P 500 Index ($SPX 1,039)
News event: A break below key a technical level this morning.
Technical comment: This morning the S&P 500 Index broke below its intermediate up trend and completed a rising wedge pattern. The breakdown occurred shortly after short term momentum sell signals and bullish percent index sell signals were recorded. Intermediate downside risk is to its 200 day moving average at 900.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
TSX Composite Index ($TSE 11,193)
News event: A break below a key technical level this morning.
Technical comment: This morning the TSX Composite Index broke below its intermediate uptrend and completed a rising wedge pattern. The breakdown occurred shortly after short term momentum sell signals were recorded. Intermediate downside risk is to its 200 day moving average at 9,685.
Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC $16.82)
News event: Ken Lewis to leave at year end
Technical Comment: Bank of America currently has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive until recently. Support exists at $16.02 and resistance exists at $18.24. However, short term technical indicators are showing caution. Strength relative to the S&P 500 has turned neutral recently. The stock is testing its 50 day moving average at $16.47. MACD, RSI and Stochastics recently have rolled over from short term overbought levels. A break below support at $16.02 implies downside risk to $14.00 where longer term support is indicated.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT $25.10)
News event: Removed from Goldman Sach’s Conviction List
Technical comment: Microsoft currently has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since May. However, early technical warnings signals have appeared. This morning the stock broke below its intermediate uptrend. MACD has rolled over during the past few days and is trending lower from a short term overbought level. RSI recently recorded a short term sell signal on a move below 70%. Downside risk is to support at $21.88.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Cisco Systems, Inc: (NASDAQ: CSCO $23.34)
News event: Proposed purchase of Tandberg for $3 billion
Technical Comment: Cisco currently has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive during the past year. However, short term momentum indicators suggest caution. MACD and RSI recorded short term sell signals during the past few days. In addition, MACD has established an intermediate downtrend from an overbought level. Downside risk is to support at $20.68.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Alcoa, Inc. (NYSE: AA $13.47)
News event: Upgraded by Deutchebank from Hold to Buy
Technical Comment: Alcoa currently has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since March. However, early technical warning signs have appeared. This morning the stock fell below its intermediate uptrend. MACD, RSI and Stochastics have recorded short term sell recommendations during the past week. Downside risk is to support at $11.29.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS $27.22)
News event: Target raised by Morgan Stanley from $30 to $35
Technical Comment: Disney currently has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. However, short term technical indicators suggest caution. This morning the stock broke below its intermediate uptrend. Short term momentum indicators (MACD, RSI and Stochastics) have recorded sell signals during the past week. Downside risk is to support at $24.89
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Don Vialoux
Director of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts
Comments offered in this report are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. An attempt to provide accurate data has been made, but accuracy is not guaranteed. Comments are from Don Vialoux and not from the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts.
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: AA, BAC, CSCO, DIS, MSFT
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October 1st, 2009 at 1:39 pm
Hi Don,
Thank you! I am a daily follower of Tech Talk and I am currently sitting on the sidelines (in cash) and I have missed this recent downturn. Therefore, my substantial profits from the recent rally are intact. I really appreciate getting timely and objective (and free!) advice from someone who doesn’t have a hidden agenda.
- Gary B.