Comments on: Tech Talk for Friday November 13th 2009

By: Rob

Rob — Sat, 14 Nov 2009 04:09:06 +0000

Hi don ,,

You are doing really great job i would like to know if You are Invested in Market right now or sitting on cash if Invested what you are holding now .

Thanks

rob

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 20:00:29 +0000

Thanks, Jay. The spot chart does not make sense given the persistent downward trend that existed in gold prior to 2001. Sorry, I don’t have access to the data and am unable to confirm seasonalcharts.com’s report.

By: Jay

Jay — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:09:02 +0000

Don,

Just to clarify, the 37 year chart was for Spot (whole year rally) and the 32 year chart (what you posted) was for Gold Future. But I was surprised there is such a big difference here.

Jay

By: Jay

Jay — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 19:04:25 +0000

Don,

I just checked http://www.seasonalcharts.com and it appeared they have updated the Gold Chart to cover 37 years, which indicate a rally for the whole year from Jan to Dec. This is quite different from the one you posted on Nov 2.
http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2009/11/clip_image035_thumb.gif

I suspect this is an error on their site but would like to double check with you.

Thanks!

Jay

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:33:26 +0000

Hi Fred. Short term momentum indicators for Canadian Pacific and Canadian National Railway are similar to indicators for the Dow Jones Transportation. The same strategy applies.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 18:32:08 +0000

Hi Arthur. My read is similar to your yours. The sector tends to reach a low late in November, form a base into January and moves higher from January to May. Individual stocks in the sector (e.g. Encana’s break down today)are early warning signs of caution for the sector in the short term.

By: Fred

Fred — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 17:42:01 +0000

If I may be permitted another comment, COW.TO offers a very interesting pattern. It has touched it’s resistance of about $18.00 no fewer than four times since August 10th and currently shows what I interpret as a sort of reverse head and shoulders ending November 9th. RSI is just above 50, MACD is still positive but Stochastics is riding along the 80 line and may drop below at any time. (As an aside, I am seeing a lot of indexes and stocks with reasonably healthy RSIs but with Stocastics well above 80.) There was a huge sell (single order?) at about 1PM yesterday without a seriously delaterious effect on price (down 0.11% on the day). The accumulation is dropping as a possible consequence of the sale yesterday.

Any other comments or interpretations? Mixed signals all over the place it seems. Is it looking increasingly dangerous out there?

By: Fred

Fred — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:52:59 +0000

At the top of your report this morning, Don, you state we should, “Hold for now, but put your finger on the trigger” in the Dow Transport sector. In answer to a question above, you state that the US Transport, amongst others, is in a period of strength. Fine so far, but how can we relate that to stocks in the Canadian transport sector, ie. railroads that have shown strength of late?

By: Arthur

Arthur — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 16:52:57 +0000

Hi Don,

I was very pleased to meet you at CSTA conference last weekend. Thank you for the great information you share with us via this web-site and National Post.
Please help me with a small TSX Energy sector puzzle.
I am tracking the performance of iShare TSX Energy XEG.TO. It had previous major trend low in July the 8th 2009 same date as S&P 500. From that date the intermediate trend went up again same as for S&P. Recently S&P 500 hit low on the 2nd of November 2009 (same for XEG.TO) and expected to trend higher. One would expect that XEG.TO will continue being in sync with S&P but my calculations of smaller cycle harmonics tell me otherwise. According to these calculations it is very unlikely that the favorable trade on TSX energy can be expected before 24th of November and can be easily delayed till the beginning of December 2009. This is not far off the traditional cyclical strength for TSX Energy sector that I learned about from your very informative articles in National Post and the web-site.
Am I off the mark here or am I still on track and the dates I am getting make sense?

Thank you in advance,
Arthur

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Fri, 13 Nov 2009 15:44:23 +0000

Hi Ken. Short term stochastics is just one of four factors that are used when considering an entry or exit point for seasonal trades. Short term momentum (daily)indicators are particularly useful when trying to fine tune the trade. Weekly and monthly momentum indicators are not used for this purpose.