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Pre-opening Comments for Thursday November 19th
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 8 points in pre-opening trade. Futures are responding to overnight strength in the U.S. Dollar. Commodities priced in U.S. Dollars including gold, silver, copper and crude oil are trading lower.
The OECD offered an encouraging comment this morning on economic growth by the world’s top 30 developed nations. OECD raised its projection on economic growth in 2010 from 0.7% to 1.9%. Projected growth in China was raised to 10%.
Weekly jobless claims reported at 8:30 AM EST did not have a significant impact on equity index futures. Jobless claims this week were unchanged at 505,000.
Traders are waiting for comments by Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner starting at 10:00 AM EST. He is scheduled to testify to the joint Congressional economic committee on possible reforms to regulations on the U.S. Financial Service industry.
U.S. based semiconductor stocks are trading lower after Bank of America/Merrill Lynch downgraded the sector from Positive to Negative. Merrill downgraded Intel, Texas Instruments, LSI Logic and Marvel Technologies from Buy to Neutral and downgraded another six semiconductor stocks from Neutral to Underperform.
Sears Holdings added 4% after reporting a lower than expected third quarter loss.
The Horizons AlphaPro Gartman Fund (HAG.UN) has been converted to an Exchange Traded Fund. It starts trading on the TSX this morning under the symbol HAG.
Technical Action Yesterday
Technical action by S&P 500 stocks remains bullish. Another five S&P 500 stocks broke resistance yesterday (Campbell Soup, Deere, Monsanto, Pinnacle West and Simon Property Group) and none broke support. The Up/Down ratio improved from 2.62 to (310/116=) 2.67.
Technical action by TSX Composite stocks also remains bullish. Six TSX stocks broke resistance (Agrium, BCE, Chartwell REIT, Metro A and Riocan REIT) and none broke support. The Up/Down ratio improved from 3.24 to (134/38=) 3.53
Horizons AlphaPro Seasonal Rotation ETF Launched
Toronto, Ontario – November 18, 2009 – Jovian Capital Corporation (“Jovian”) (JOV: TSX) and its subsidiary AlphaPro Management Inc. (“AlphaPro”) are pleased to announce the launch of the Horizons AlphaPro Seasonal Rotation ETF (the “ETF”) which will begin trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange (“TSX”) on November 20, 2009, under the symbol HAC. Jovian is also pleased to announce that Don Vialoux, CMT, and Brooke Thackray, CFP, CIM, have joined subsidiary JovInvestment Management Inc. (“JovInvestment”) as research analysts to support the seasonal rotation strategy of the ETF and identify seasonal patterns.
The ETF seeks to provide long-term capital appreciation in all market cycles by tactically allocating its exposure amongst equities, fixed income, commodities and currencies during periods that have historically demonstrated seasonal trends.
“We are pleased that Don and Brooke have chosen AlphaPro to implement their distinctive investment strategies,” said Ken McCord, President of AlphaPro. “Investors now have the means to access the leading analysts in this unique field within an actively managed ETF and to benefit from their seasonal rotation strategy.”
AlphaPro is the manager and trustee of the ETF and its affiliate JovInvestment is the investment manager of the ETF, responsible for portfolio management. JovInvestment will use the disciplined research of Brooke Thackray and Don Vialoux to seek to gain exposure to the performance of markets and sectors that at various times of the year have historically performed favourably.
“I am excited to have this opportunity to combine my experience in seasonal rotation analysis with the benefits of ETF investing,” said Brooke Thackray, analyst for JovInvestment and author of Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide.
“I look forward to introducing our seasonal rotation strategies to investors through the AlphaPro ETF structure,” said Don Vialoux, analyst for JovInvestment and author of the online newsletter www.timingthemarket.ca.
Representatives of AlphaPro and JovInvestment will be ringing the opening bell at the TSX on Friday, November 20, 2009.
About Brooke Thackray, CFP, CIM
Brooke Thackray has nearly 14 years of investment-related experience, most recently as President of MountAlpha Media, where he has written and published several books, including Thackray’s 2009 Investor’s Guide and Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide. He is also the author of a monthly newsletter, Thackray Market Letter. He is a monthly columnist for the Globe and Mail Gold Line Investor and is a regular guest on BNN. Previously he was an investment advisor at major brokerage firms, including TD Waterhouse and RBC Investments. He also co-founded UpWave Media Inc., a financial publishing company. Mr. Thackray has an MBA from York University and has several financial designations, including Certified Financial Planner (CFP) and Canadian Investment Manager (CIM).
About Don Vialoux, CMT
Don Vialoux has 37 years of experience in the investment industry. He is a past President and current Director of the Canadian Society of Technical Analysts (CSTA). He achieved the Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation in 1996 with a thesis entitled “Seasonality in Canadian Equity Prices.” He is a highly regarded expert in technical analysis and provides a daily letter on equity markets at www.timingthemarket.ca, which has visits from 130 countries. He contributes a weekly column in the Financial Post that combines technical, fundamental and seasonal rotation analysis, and is a frequent presenter on BNN. Previously he provided technical analysis services for RBC Investments.
About AlphaPro Management Inc. (www.hapetfs.com)
AlphaPro is an innovative financial services company specializing in actively managed ETFs with assets under management of approximately $100 million as of October 31, 2009. AlphaPro is a subsidiary of BetaPro Management Inc. (“BetaPro”). BetaPro is Canada’s largest provider of leveraged, inverse leveraged and inverse ETFs. BetaPro manages approximately $2.7 billion in assets as of October 31, 2009. BetaPro is a subsidiary of Jovian Capital Corporation.
About Jovian Capital Corporation (www.joviancapital.com)
Jovian acquires, creates and grows financial services companies specializing in wealth and asset management. The Jovian group of companies (AlphaPro Management Inc., BetaPro Management Inc., Horizons Exchange Traded Funds Inc., Horizons Funds Inc., JovFunds Management Inc., JovInvestment Management Inc., Leon Frazer & Associates Inc., MGI Financial Inc., MGI Securities Inc., MGI Securities (USA) Inc. and T.E. Wealth) manages approximately $11.5 billion of client assets ($7.0 billion in assets under management and $4.5 billion in assets under administration). Additional information is available at www.joviancapital.com and www.sedar.com.
For more information:
Ken McCord, President, AlphaPro Management Inc., (416) 933-5746 or 1-866-641-5739; or
Don Sangster, Investor Relations, Jovian Capital Corporation, (416) 933-5744; or
Philip Armstrong, Chief Executive Officer, Jovian Capital Corporation, (416) 933-5752.
Editor’s Note: Ken McCord, Brooke Thackray and Don Vialoux are scheduled to open trading on the Toronto Exchange on Friday at 9:30 AM in celebration of launch of the Seasonal Rotation ETF.
Interesting Charts
Agriculture stocks were notable on the list of stocks breaking resistance yesterday on higher than average volume. Most stocks and ETFs in the sector bottomed in mid July and have gained significantly since then. ‘Tis the season for stocks and ETFs in the sector to move higher until near the end of December!
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
CSTA
Events |
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Toronto Chapter – November 2009: Technical Analysis and Options |
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The Strathcona Hotel |
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Understand how to use options to control risk and optimize outcomes while technically trading. Join Patrick Ceresna in a discussion of how to find optimum risk/reward trade opportunities using Fibonacci and pattern analysis. Followed up by a discussion on how to use options to quantify the risk/reward parameters of the trade. Patrick Ceresna, CMT CIM DMS Chief Derivative Market Strategist www.optionsource.net |
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Next Vancouver monthly meeting, November 27, 2009, featuring Ron Meisels
The Next Vancouver monthly meeting will take place on November 27, 2009 at 5PM and will feature Ron Meisels
Topic: Technical Analysis Explained
Date: November 27, 2009
Time: 5:00pm-6:30pm
Location: TD Waterhouse Investor Center, 5991 No.3 Road, Richmond BC
Admission Fee: Free for member. $20 for repeating non-members.
Ron Meisels bio:
Ron Meisels is one of North America’s most successful technical analysts with over 35 years of stock market experience. He specializes in the independent research of Canadian securities. He is listed in the Canadian Who’s Who.
He has been a private investor since 1963, and has been publishing the technically oriented "Phases & Cycles" since 1970. He was Director and Vice President of the brokerage firm Goulding, Rose & Turner from 1976 to 1982, and Vice President and Manager of Technical Research at Nesbitt Thomson Inc. (now Nesbitt Burns) from 1982 to 1990. Canadian Institutions ranked him among the top three technical analysts for six consecutive years (Brendan Wood Survey).
He has a truly distinguished track record in anticipating stock market moves, as illustrated by his famous "10,000 in 2000" prediction, made in January 1995 when the DJIA was at 3850. Ron contributes a weekly column to the Globe and Mail ("Technically Speaking"), is often interviewed on television (BNNtv), and is frequently quoted in major financial media such as Bloomberg and Reuters.
CSTA Montreal Christmas party is scheduled on December 7th
The CSTA Montreal Christmas party is scheduled.
Date: December 7th
Location:
Le Caveau restaurant
2063, rue Victoria
Montréal Qc H3A 2A3
(corner of Sherbrooke et Président-Kennedy)
Speaker: Sid Mokhtari, CMT of CIBC World Markets
Additional information coming soon
Registration for all events can be completed through www.csta.org
Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide
Tech Talk frequently mentions Brooke Thackray’s book entitled, “Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide”. The book summarizes attractive seasonal trades that are available during the year. The book can be purchased electronically or directly at Chapters, Amazon.ca, Barnes & Noble and Amazon.com. Following are links to the book at these stores:
http://www.chapters.indigo.ca/books/Thackrays-2010-Investors-Guide-Brooke-Thackray/9780978220037-item.html?ref=Search+Books:+%27thackray%27s%27
http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/097822003X/ref=s9_sims_gw_s0_p14_i1?pf_rd_m=A3DWYIK6Y9EEQB&pf_rd_s=center-1&pf_rd_r=0773ED3P045NMSDK94ZA&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=465532811&pf_rd_i=915398
http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Thackrays-2010-Investors-Guide/Brooke-Thackray/e/9780978220037/?itm=1
http://www.amazon.com/Thackrays-2010-Investors-Guide-Seasonal/dp/097822003X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1252640152&sr=8-1
Seasonal trades in the book that currently are active include Agriculture, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Retail and Metals & Mining.
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
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Discussions from the Tech Talk Forum:
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November 19th, 2009 at 2:41 am
Don et al,
Please consider giving Atlantic Canadians lectures in Technical Analysis. Lost to many ‘Upper Canadians’, Canada does extend east beyond Quebec.
Don, I truly appreciate your daily feed of insight.
Regards,
George
November 19th, 2009 at 4:54 am
Congratulations on the new ETF! That’s really exciting. You can credit tech talk for making a HAC.to investor out of me!
Any thoughts on platinum, and specifically PGM? I picked some up at $33 in late Oct. for a seasonal trade based on my own analysis and your June 2nd tech talk report, and have been pleasantly surprised at its very sharp rise. My concern now is that it looks intermediate overbought(RSI) and clearly shorter term as well (full stochastics), in addition to perhaps being in a rising wedge formation. Parabolic growth is nice but I can’t see this keeping up. Should seasonal trade participants simply ride it out until May or look to take partial profits at some point soon? I’m tempted to do the latter but have gotten too cute with some of my trades in the past.
November 19th, 2009 at 4:59 am
Don and Brooke
Congratulations.
I know where a lot of customers for this new ETF will come from.
November 19th, 2009 at 5:27 am
Congrats on the new ETF! HAC will have a good market and the timing is certainly right!
I do hope this column will continue as is though.
November 19th, 2009 at 6:05 am
Congratulations on your new post, Don and Brooke.
November 19th, 2009 at 6:16 am
HAC’s creation is welcome news Don. I expect it to do very well. 2 questions:
1. what is its MER (it isn’t listed yet on the AlphaPro website)?
2. Am I right in assuming that you will have no hesitation in going to cash whenever the market dictates? Not doing so seems to be the downfall of any other ETF/MF.
Thank you, and congrats!
November 19th, 2009 at 6:40 am
Congratulations and good luck in your new venture.It will be interesting to watch the ETF grow and develop.
Ken
November 19th, 2009 at 6:47 am
Don, all the best to you in your new post . . . and as Amelia says: I and probably others here hope you can continue on with the daily “Tech Talk”.
November 19th, 2009 at 6:58 am
congrats to you both
truly deserved your info is very appreciated
ron.
November 19th, 2009 at 6:59 am
Ditto all of the above Don.
November 19th, 2009 at 7:19 am
Congratulations on your moves Don & Brooke, looking forward to the ride.
November 19th, 2009 at 7:24 am
The launch of HAC is very exciting. I can’t wait to be an investor from Day One. Good luck, Don and Brooke.
November 19th, 2009 at 7:30 am
Don,
I’m glad that you’re going to be part of that new ETF.
I have learn so much from you since 2 years.
All the best to both of you .
November 19th, 2009 at 7:31 am
Hi Don
Congrates on your new ETF. When do you expect this EFT to start trading??
November 19th, 2009 at 7:48 am
Congrats, Don!
November 19th, 2009 at 8:00 am
Congrats Don! Can’t wait to see this ETF in action!
November 19th, 2009 at 8:14 am
Hi AK. Platinum once again is approaching the radar screen. According to Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide, its period of seasonal strength is from January 1st to May 31st. A major factor influencing the trade is demand for autos that use platinum in catalytic converters. Demand for autos is increasing rapidly in China and most of the Far East and is showing early signs of a recovery in North America and Europe. Technically, the trade is not set up yet. Stay tuned.
November 19th, 2009 at 8:16 am
Hi Don,
Would a bond ETF with a 5-year duration be a good defensive play in anticipation for rising inflation ? Would you recommend a shorter duration ? Thank you for your advice.
November 19th, 2009 at 8:38 am
Hello Don
Congratualtions from the west coast. You have no idea how your newsletter shapes my day – I get up three hours ealier that I would without it! Please don’t forget us out here should you take to the road as George suggests. Good luck at Jovian.
November 19th, 2009 at 9:12 am
Hi Don,
Congrat to your new endeavor. Can you give us some more details on how your new ETF is managed? Would be just be technical and seasonal. Or would it be on the 3 principle that you have been teaching. Technical, seasonal and fundamental?
What is your opinion of your fund, and how should one fit it into a typical portfolio? Thanks.
November 19th, 2009 at 9:51 am
Don,
Where do you see the entry point for ECA and what is the outlook for this stock over the next couple of months?
November 19th, 2009 at 9:54 am
Congratulations Don on the new ETF HAC. It would be interesting to go back a few years using the strategy for “tactically allocating its exposure sectors” to see how the ETF would have performed had it been in place.
Repeating Carl’s questions:
1. what is its MER (it isn’t listed yet on the AlphaPro website)?
2. Am I right in assuming that you will have no hesitation in going to cash whenever the market dictates? Not doing so seems to be the downfall of any other ETF/MF.
One more:
3. Will it be leveraged?
November 19th, 2009 at 9:59 am
Hi Don
Could you please comment on the unusual weakness in VT- Viterra? Most of the stocks in this sector have recovered nicely, ‘cept this one. TIA.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:02 am
I will wait abit until I figure out HAC’s season of strength and completed fundamental and technical analysis……
November 19th, 2009 at 11:23 am
Hi all,
Google Alphapro and HAC. The first link is the Alphapro page for HAC. It details the MER, performance fee etc. The propectus (available for download there) details the investment strategy, risks, etc, for the ETF.
Don – congratulations on HAC. It’s going to be followed closely by many of us here.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:29 am
Congratulations, Don! This sounds like a very unique and exciting etf offering.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:41 am
Hi Mr. Vialoux,
bonne chance to you and Brooke with the ETF. I’m very interested. Will it be possible to actually view the component holdings within the fund. I notice Horizon has published the prospectus and there’s a general description, but will the real-time asset allocation be something investors can consult.
thanks and regards,
James1
November 19th, 2009 at 12:50 pm
Hi Don,
Congratualtions on your new joint venture with Brooke and the ETF – that is fabulous!! I have no doubt it will be well received and will do very well.
Question re gold and gold stocks:
Gold seems to be overbought (as are the gold stocks like Barrick and Goldcorp etc.), yet each time gold tries to decline, it jumps right back up again fairly quickly (like with today for example). So, would this signify that regardless of whether gold and the gold stocks are overbought, that there is just so much demand out there that there will not be any kind of a correction for these? Or, technically speaking, would you anticipate a decline in gold and gold stocks to be coming within the near future like within the next week or so after the call options have expired? Any insight into this would be greatly appreciated Don!
Thank you so much!
Eve
November 19th, 2009 at 1:07 pm
Congrats Don and Brooke, this is truly exciting!
November 19th, 2009 at 5:09 pm
Congrats Don.
What is your opinion on Financial Post article about natural gas a buy now?
November 19th, 2009 at 6:31 pm
Hi Dave1. Trading starts at the opening tomorrow (Friday)
November 19th, 2009 at 6:36 pm
Hi Heinz S. Best bond ETFs have the shortest duration. Inflation pressures are just starting and will ramp up significantly on a year over year basis during the next few months. Higher inflation eventually will trigger higher interest rates (probably starting in the second half of 2010)and lower bond prices.
November 19th, 2009 at 6:40 pm
Hi AF. Just confirming that selections for the fund are based on a combination of technicals, fundamentals and seasonality. Sorry, securities regulations prohibit me from revealing content of the fund. However, regular reading of Tech Talk in recent weeks will provide a good clue.
November 19th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
Hi Richard. Encana has been hit badly since our review on the stock last week. Today it broke below its 200 day moving average, not a good sign. Next support is at $51.75. Seasonal influences turn positive near the end of January. Look for possible base building between now and the end of January. No rush to buy this one yet!
November 19th, 2009 at 6:53 pm
Hi Roy. VT continues to show a positive intermediate technical profile. The stock has been a stellar performer since August.In addition, strength relative to the TSX Composite remains positive. Seasonal influences remain favourable until near the end of December.However, short term momentum indicators are overbought (most notably Stochastics). Support is at $9.89. Retention is recommended until the end of the period of seasonal strength approaches.
November 19th, 2009 at 7:03 pm
Hi Eve. Gold and gold stocks are short term overbought by virtually any measure. The key is the U.S. Dollar. A short term recovery by the Dollar to its 50 day moving average currently at 76.02 due to short covering would not be unusual. It would immediately cause short term weakness in gold and gold stocks. However, intermediate trend for the U.S. Dollar remains down and the intermediate trend for gold remains up. Gold has short term downside risk to its previous breakout level at $1,070. Weakness would provide a buying opportunity.
November 19th, 2009 at 7:10 pm
Hi SKS. Natural gas is on the radar screen following its recent decline. Technicals remain negative,but are substantially short term oversold. Fundamentals remain grim. Today’s U.S. natural gas inventory report did not help. Canadian natural gas historically have strengthened in December. However, a trade in natural gas this December will not be “for the faint of heart”. This is an extremely volutile commodity. Will monitor and try to provide guidance in December based on technicals.
November 19th, 2009 at 11:02 pm
Thank you Don!
Eve
November 20th, 2009 at 12:28 am
I have been an avid reader of tech talk for a year now and an avid fan of Don and Brooke. Congratulations for the new ETF – HAC.This is my first time posting a comment on this site. I am just so excited on what this ETF would bring specially to followers of Tech Talk. More power to you Don and Brooke!
Loy
November 20th, 2009 at 6:12 am
This new ETF is the best news I’ve heard for the investing community in the 20 years.I love performance enhanced fees. Good luck guys.
November 20th, 2009 at 7:43 am
Hey Don–congrats on the launch of HAC. May it live long and prosper!