Economic News This Week
Economic news is expected to be mixed this week.
October existing home sales to be released on Monday at 10:00 AM is expected to increase to 5.70 million units versus 5.57 million units in September.
Preliminary third quarter GDP to be released on Tuesday at 8:30 AM is expected to slip to 2.9% from 3.5%.
September Case Shiller Home Index to be released on Tuesday at 9:00 AM is expected to recover to -9.05% from -11.30%.
November Consumer Confidence to be released on Tuesday at 9:00 AM is expected to slip to 47.5 from 47.7 in October
October Personal Income to be released on Wednesday at 8:30 AM is expected to improve by 0.2% from 0.0% in September.
October Personal Spending to be released on Wednesday at 8:30 AM is expected to improve 0.5% versus a 0.5% decline in September.
October Durable Goods Orders to be released on Wednesday at 8:30 AM is expected to slip to up 0.5% versus 1.0% in September. Excluding transportation, Durable Goods Orders are expected to increase 0.7% versus an increase of 0.9% in September.
October New Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM on Wednesday is expected to increase to 405,000 versus 402,000 in September.
Earnings Reports This Week
Reports are sparse during a holiday shortened week.
Monday sees Campbell Soup and Hewlett Packard
Tuesday sees Couche Tard, Bank of Montreal, George Weston and Heinz.
Wednesday sees Deere
Equity Index Trends
The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. the Up/Down ratio) rose last week from 2.43 to 308/117=) 2.63. Number of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend increased by 12. Number of stocks in a downtrend fell by 5. The ratio remains intermediate overbought, but is trending higher.
Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks increase last week from 76.60% to 77.00%. The Index remains above its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Up/Down ratio for TSX Composite stocks rose last week from 3.05 to (134/39=) 3.43. Number of TSX stocks in an uptrend increased by 3. Number of TSX stocks in a downtrend slipped by 4. The ratio remains intermediate overbought.
Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks increased last week from 76.96% to 77.94% and remains above its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The S&P 500 Index slipped 2.10 points (0.19%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Support is at 1,029.38. MACD and RSI are moderately short term overbought. Stochastics are significantly short term overbought and showing early signs of rolling over. Seasonal influences currently are positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average fell last week from 66.20% to 57.00%. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average slipped from 91.60% to 91.20% last week. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 41.68 points (0.46%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is positive. Short term momentum indicators (MACD, RSI and Stochastics) are overbought. Stochastics are significantly overbought and showing early signs of rolling over. Seasonal influences currently are positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks was unchanged last week at 83.33%. The Index remains just below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite Index stocks slipped last week from 58.87% to 58.14% last week and remains below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The NASDAQ Composite Index slipped 22.84points (1.00%) last week. Intermediate trend resumed after the Index moved above resistance at 2,190.64. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Support is at 2,024.27. Short term momentum indicators (MACD, RSI and Stochastics) are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Seasonal influences currently are positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Russell 2000 Index slipped 1.60 points (0.17%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains below its 50 day moving average and above its 200 day moving average. MACD and RSI have recovered to a neutral level. Stochastics are short term overbought and showing early technical signs of rolling over. Support is at 553.31. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. The period of positive performance from December 19th to March 7th is approaching, but technical are not there yet. Stay tuned.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Dow Jones Transportation Average slipped 15.05 points (0.38%) last week. Its intermediate uptrend resumed last week when the Average moved above resistance at 4,066.40. The Average remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Support is at 3,546.48. MACD and RSI are short term overbought. Stochastics are short term overbought and showing early technical signs of rolling over. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Favourable seasonal influences, which normally ended on November 13th, have been extended this year. Technical requirements for taking a profit likely will occur as early as today.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The TSX Composite Index added another 171.65 points last week. Its intermediate trend changed from down to up when the Index broke above resistance at 11,648.55 to reach a 13 month high. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Support is at 10,745.25. MACD and RSI are short term overbought. Stochastics are short term overbought and showing early signs of rolling over. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative, but may be showing early signs of changing. Seasonal influences currently are positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week from 55.39% to 60.78%. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week from 81.37% to 84.31%. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index slipped 15.90 points (0.34%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index slipped below its 50 day moving average on Friday, but remains above its 200 day moving average. Support is indicated at 4,515.30. MACD and RSI have recovered to a neutral level. Stochastics are short term overbought. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains undetermined. Seasonal influences currently are positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Nikkei Average fell 272.62 points (2.79%) last week. Its downward intermediate trend was confirmed last week when the Average broke support at 9,628.67. The Average remains below its 50 day moving average and its testing its 200 day moving average. MACD, RSI and Stochastics are short term overbought, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Seasonal influences currently are positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Shanghai Composite Index added 120.70 points (3.79%). Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Resistance is at 3,478.01. Short term momentum indicators (MACD, RSI and Stochastics) are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The London FT Index slipped 44.97 points (0.85%), the Frankfurt DAX Index slipped 23.68 points (0.42%) and the Paris CAC Index dropped 77.65 points (2.01%) last week. Seasonal influences currently are positive.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Currencies
The U.S. Dollar added 0.38 last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Once again, the Dollar is testing its 50 day moving average where resistance has consistently appeared during the past eight months. MACD, RSI and Stochastics are recovering from short term oversold levels. A move above its 50 day moving average currently at 76.00 likely will trigger a significant short covering rally. Next resistance is at 76.82. Should be a very interesting week!
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Conversely, the Euro slipped 0.41 last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Its 50 day moving average currently at 148.04 has proven to be a reliable support level during the past eight months. Short term momentum indicators are trending lower. A significant break below its 50 day moving average likely will trigger stop loss orders.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Canadian Dollar fell 1.61 last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Short term momentum indicators are trending lower from overbought levels. The Canuck Buck fell below its 50 day moving average last week. Support is indicated at 92.16
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Commodities
The CRB Index added 5.46 points (2.03%) last week despite strength in the U.S. Dollar, a sign that demand for commodities instead of just strength in the U.S. Dollar is having an impact. Intermediate trend remains up. Resistance is at 285.18. Short term momentum indicators are neutral to slightly overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Crude Oil added $0.44 per barrel last week. Resistance is at $82.00. Short term momentum indicators are neutral.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Gasoline added $0.06 per gallon last week. It remains in a six month trading range between $1.60 and $2.10 per gallon. Short term momentum indicators are neutral.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Natural Gas added $0.06 per MBtu last week. Short term momentum indicators are oversold and showing early signs of bottoming. Seasonal studies show that December historically has been a strong month for natural gas prices. The trigger frequently is the first major winter storm in North America. According to the weather channels, the first major winter storm this year passed through the Pacific Northwest over the weekend. In addition, the forecast for most of North America is for colder than average weather in December. Could be an interesting short term trade!
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Possible strength in natural gas prices has yet to show up in U.S. energy equities. The S&P Energy Index remains in a tight range between 417.67 and 457.00. Short term momentum indicators are neutral.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Ditto for the TSX Energy Index! Range is between 275.59 and 309.46!
Gold added another $31.30 U.S. per ounce last week despite strength in the U.S. Dollar. Short term momentum indicators remain overbought, but continue to trend higher. Intermediate trend remains up. Gold remains well above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. A significant break by the U.S. Dollar above its 50 day moving average undoubtedly would trigger a short term correction for gold possibly to its breakout level at 1,070, but a correction would provide another opportunity to add to positions.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Philadelphia Gold and Silver Index continued to move higher last week with strength in gold prices. Intermediate trend is up. Strength relative to gold remains weak.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Silver resumed its intermediate trend last week on a break above resistance at $18.08. Strength relative to gold remains negative.
Economically sensitive commodities such as Platinum recorded exceptional gains last week. Platinum gained $53.20 U.S. per ounce. Momentum indicators are overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Ditto for copper, up another 13.45 cents per lb. last week. Nice breakout above $3.0690 per lb to a 14 month high. Tis the season for copper to move higher!
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Ditto for Grain prices! JJG broke resistance at $41.97 and gained another 3.6% last week. Concerns about the size of this year’s North American corn crop are having an impact. ‘Tis the season for grain prices to move higher!
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Ditto for lumber prices, up another 12.3% last week. ‘Tis the season for lumber prices to move higher.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Financials
The yield on 10 year U.S. Treasuries slipped another 0.07% last week. Yield remains locked in a six month range between 3.21% and 3.98%
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The S&P Financial Sector was virtually unchanged last week. It remains locked in a four month trading range between 185.53 and 212.09.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The TSX Financial Service Index improved slightly last week despite a significant drop by ManuLife, one of the largest components in the Index. ManuLife fell on news of a $2.5 billion equity issue. Bank stocks within the sector continued to move higher in anticipation of encouraging news to be released with fiscal fourth quarter earnings reports. Reports start appearing this week (most of them are released on December 3rd ). ‘Tis the season for Canada’s bank stocks to move higher prior to release of fiscal fourth quarter reports! The Index remains locked in a tight trading range between 163.00 and 181.93.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Other Factors
The VIX Index slipped last week by 5%. The Index continues to test the bottom of a six month trading range between 20.10% and 31.84%.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Baltic Dry Index gained another 9.6% last week. It broke resistance at 4,291 to set a 13 month high. World trade continues to recover.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Intermediate technical parameters remain overbought, but continue to trend higher.
Trading in U.S. and Canadian equity markets will slow to a crawl around noon on Wednesday prior to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. Historically, the two best consecutive days to own the U.S. equity market has been the day before and the day after U.S. Thanksgiving Day. More information is offered in a column below.
Economic and earnings news to be released this week are expected to have a mixed impact on equity markets. The economic focus is on third quarter GDP. The earnings focus is on Hewlett Packard and Deere in the U.S. and Bank of Montreal in Canada.
Political news this week could dampen enthusiasm for equities. The Health Care bill finally was approved for debate by the Senate over the weekend. Rhetoric will ramp up this week. The next major political focus is on the Copenhagen climate change conference from December 7th to December 18th (Just after a major snow storm in North America. LOL).
Cash positions continue to move from the sidelines into equity markets.
The U.S. Dollar will be watched very closely today and tomorrow. Will it break above its 50 day moving average or once again finds resistance at that level. Currency markets (although officially open) are virtually closed on Wednesday and Friday. Fluctuations during those days should be ignored. The strength in economically sensitive commodity prices last week despite strength in the U.S. Dollar was an encouraging technical sign. Will there be follow through this week? Stay tuned.
‘Tis the season when weather can have an influence on equity markets! Remember the phrase, “Buy when it snows, sell when it goes”!
The Bottom Line
Equity markets continue to trend higher. Stick with the trend (particularly in sectors that benefit from favourable seasonal influences).
Tech Talk’s Weekly Column in Financial Post
(Published on Saturday and available by paid subscription at www.nationalpost.com )
The U.S. Thanksgiving Rally
The U.S. Thanksgiving holiday arrives next Thursday. Historically, equity markets on both sides of the border have moved higher during the day before and the day after Thanksgiving. Will it happen again this year?
Seasonality
Two of the strongest days of the year for U.S. equity markets are the day before and the day after U.S. Thanksgiving Day. Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide notes that, “The day before Thanksgiving and the day after have had an average cumulative return by the S&P 500 Index of 0.8% per period”. During the past 59 periods, the Index gained in 49 periods, was unchanged in three periods and slipped in seven periods. The gain last year was exceptional when the S&P 500 Index rose 4.5%.
Performance of the TSX Composite Index during the U.S. Thanksgiving rally period also has been positive. The TSX Composite Index since its relaunch in March 2000 has advanced in nine of the past nine periods. The gain last year was exceptional when the TSX Composite Index rose 9.8%.
Two recurring events help to explain the phenomenon:
- Individual investors dominate the trading on Wednesday, the day before U.S. Thanksgiving and Friday, the day after U.S. Thanksgiving. Most institutional investors and market makers close their books at midday on Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving. They take an extended long weekend including a holiday on Friday, the day after Thanksgiving.
- Individual investors are in a buoyant pre-Christmas mood. Thanksgiving Day in the U.S. is the start of the Christmas shopping season. The day after Thanksgiving Day is known as “Black Friday” and historically has been the busiest shopping day of the Christmas season. It became known as “Black Friday” because historically that is the date when retailers finally turn a profit for the year: their profit and loss statement turns from red to black.
Technicals
Technical conditions for a rally by U.S. and Canadian equity indices are less than ideal this year. Short term momentum indicators (Moving Average Convergence Divergence, Relative Strength Index and Stochastics) currently are overbought.
Fundamentals
Prospects for the Thanksgiving rally in U.S. and Canadian equity markets from next Wednesday to next Friday are mixed this year. On one hand, October retail sales in the U.S. reported last week were higher than consensus implying that consumers are returning to the stores for the Christmas season. Consumer electronic goods are a particularly hot item this year. In order to prepare for the annual crush on Black Friday, Wal-Mart recently changed its policy on store openings after an employee was trampled to death last year. People stampeded the doors when opened at 6:00 AM. This year Wal-Mart has decided to open its doors at midnight instead of 6:00 AM. On the other hand, consumers on both sides of the border are changing their buying practices. Fewer sales are completed with credit cards. In addition, consumers are purchasing more gift cards and are buying more items through the internet instead of at their local mall.
How to invest
Preferred strategy is to defer the sale of stocks, Exchange Traded Funds and mutual funds until after the U.S. Thanksgiving rally period.
Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide
Tech Talk frequently mentions Brooke Thackray and his book entitled, “Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide”. The book summarizes attractive seasonal trades that are available during the year. It could be an attractive Christmas gift for an investor friend. The book can be purchased electronically or directly at Chapters, Amazon.ca, Barnes & Noble and Amazon.com. Following are links to these book stores:
http://www.chapters.indigo.ca/books/Thackrays-2010-Investors-Guide-Brooke-Thackray/9780978220037-item.html?ref=Search+Books:+%27thackray%27s%27
http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/097822003X/ref=s9_sims_gw_s0_p14_i1?pf_rd_m=A3DWYIK6Y9EEQB&pf_rd_s=center-1&pf_rd_r=0773ED3P045NMSDK94ZA&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=465532811&pf_rd_i=915398
http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Thackrays-2010-Investors-Guide/Brooke-Thackray/e/9780978220037/?itm=1
http://www.amazon.com/Thackrays-2010-Investors-Guide-Seasonal/dp/097822003X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1252640152&sr=8-1
Seasonal trades in the book that currently are active include Agriculture, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Retail and Metals & Mining.
Brooke is scheduled to appear on BNN Television this evening at 7:00 PM.
Update on the U.S. Retail Sector
Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide notes that one of the periods of seasonal strength in the U.S. Retail Sector is from October 28th to November 29th (i.e. essentially to Black Friday). Technically, the entry this year was triggered on November 3rd. Subsequently, ETFs in the sector have performed well. However, technical indicators during the past few days suggest that the end of the seasonal trade has come earlier than usual this year. Traders can respond accordingly.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:08 am
Hi Don,
Do health care stocks have a seasonal sweet spot? And do you know of any etfs that cover them?
Appreciate all your efforts. Thanks Jon
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:37 am
Don – quick question for $SPX, why is RSI overbought at 54? I thought the RSI overbought level was 70 or greater. Please advise.
Jonnie check out the health care spider in the US – ticker XLV
November 23rd, 2009 at 5:15 am
A number of very large options contracts on the US dollar expired on Friday implying “risk off” trading going into Thanksgiving.
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:48 am
eric says:
interesting index charts this a.m.,if i draw trend lines touching march and july lows for spx, compq, tran and tse i can conclude those lines were broken in october and are now at best in trading ranges. please tell a novice investor what is wrong with this analysis.
thanks for a great daily column.
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:16 am
Don,
You mention that cash positions are moving into the market. Is this strong or weak money in your opinion. If weak and the market turns lower they will cash out in a hurry and maybe take the market much lower and offer a good buying opportunity. Your thoughts would be greatly appreciated. Thanks
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:43 am
Hi Don;
The RSI for COW.TO has reached 70- does this mean its time to dump it?Thanks.
November 23rd, 2009 at 8:27 am
Hi Don,
May I have your opinion on CLT.TO and GO.TO as short term gas play? Both are showing early signs of recovery from oversold levels. Thanks.
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:37 am
Hello Don:
Do you still think gold will fall back to $1070 as mentioned in your report seeing it had such a huge breakout today.
Thanks for your opinion.
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:57 am
Hi Don…lots of questions for you this morning. And here’s another:
I am trying to follow the seasonality as an investment strategy (note I deliberately didn’t say a trading strategy). The sweet spot for IT is now, and I held TXN (Texas Instruments). On Friday, Stochastics rolled over and dipped below 80, a short term selling signal. Today, it’s up over 1.5%.
OK, so here’s the question: For investors, would it be better to use the weekly charts? If so, Stochastics is skirting along the 80 line but hasn’t broken above it. Had I followed the weekly chart, I may not have sold and maybe made a better return.
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:11 am
As far as CGL.WT-TSX expiry date is concerned (ref. my previous post), the last trading day is this coming Friday, Nov-27, so it’s really a play for gamblers at this point. However, it’s good to keep in mind that Claymore issues warrants, personally I’ve never thought about checking that.
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:15 am
Hi Don, I love your commentary – for the TSX you mention that “MACD and RSI are short term overbought”. I am wondering how you determine this for these indicators as RSI is at 59.07 and MACD seems to be still trending upward.
Regards,
Paul
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:24 am
Don,
Not sure you able to answer this questions about HAC. In particular, do you and Brooke make all the decisons on the investments? Converseley are they recommendations to be considered by the manager? If you make decisons, is it a 50/50 split between you and Brooke?
Thanks,
Dave
Thanks,
Dave
November 23rd, 2009 at 10:58 am
Hi Don,
A few days ago you described a new corporate bond ETF that had fixed maturity dates. I seem to remember that they were Claymore ETFs but I called Claymore and they said they had no knowledge of such ETFs. Could you please clarify.
Rgds,
Dave
November 23rd, 2009 at 12:40 pm
Hello Don,
Your comments on AGU last week were “Agrium currently has a positive intermediate technical profile. Take over rumors … in the Agriculture sector likely will trigger a break above resistance at $60 Cdn. shortly. Intermediate upside potential on a breakout is to $71.85 Cdn.”
However, could you please indicated whether it is short term overbought and are we seeing it rolling over in the short term to the downside? I see RSI and FullStoch rolling over slightly, is MacD to follow ?
Thanks,
Joe
November 23rd, 2009 at 2:15 pm
Mug shot of Donny V and his gang… http://www.tmx.com/en/images/highRes/Nov20-2009.jpg
November 23rd, 2009 at 3:08 pm
My question is the same as Joe above, except it applies to POT.TO. Thanks for your reply Don.
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:18 pm
Gee Don how do you manage to hold so many hands and answer so many absurd questions? Is Tech Talk expanding into the investment counseling business on a no fee basis?
November 23rd, 2009 at 4:46 pm
Don,
Could I please get your opinion and short term TA on BWC.to ? Thanks so much.
Richard
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:27 pm
Hi Jonnie. According to Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide, the period of seasonal strength is from August 15th to October 18th.
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:43 pm
Hi Shawn. RSI is overbought when above 50. Momentum indicators such as RSI, MACD and Stochastics is most useful when fine tuning a seasonal entry or exit point. For example, an exit point occurs when RSI breaks below 70% at approximately the identified date (plus or minus two weeks). Using Stochastics, RSI and MACD outside of these conditions is interesting (i.e.degree of being overbought or oversold) but is not action oriented for the seasonal investor. Technical signals using RSI, MACD and Stochastics are frequent between the identified seasonal entry and exit points, but should be ignored if using the seasonality discipline. Short term momentum indicators may be useful for short term traders, but are not a focus of this blog. Feel free to use them if it fits your investment style.
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:45 pm
Hi Eric. Major U.S. equity indices (S&P 500, NASDAQ Composite, Dow Jones Industrial Average recently moved to new 2009 highs implying a continuation of an intermediate uptrend. Trend lines need to be adjusted accordingly.
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:47 pm
Hi RG. Please refer to comments to Shawn above. COW currently is in a period of seasonal strength lasting until the end of December. An exit point for the trade will be fine tuned as the end of December approaches. It’s too early to make that call using the seasonality discipline.
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:49 pm
Hi Roy. CLT and GO are interesting “gassy” stocks. However, short term momentum indicators continue to trend lower. Would prefer to see more evidence of a bottom before commiting.
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:52 pm
Hi Kay. Downside risk for gold is $1,070 and upside potential is $1,300 between now and early February. Technical action by the U.S. Dollar and gold today was encouraging for gold and gold stocks. Additional comments are offered in tomorrow’s Tech Talk.
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:55 pm
Hi Fred. Please refer to comments offered above for Shawn and RG. The end of the period of seasonal strength for TXN is mid January. It’s too early to use short term momentum indicators to fine tune an exit.
November 23rd, 2009 at 6:59 pm
Hi Dave A. Brooke and I are research analysts employed by JOV. We jointly advise the manager on transactions based on our fundamental, technical and seasonal analysis.
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:01 pm
Hi Dave. Claymore bond ETFs mentioned in the article are ETFs to be issued by Claymore Securities in the U.S., not Claymore Investments in Canada.
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:08 pm
Hi Joe and Roy. Ditto to comments above. POT and AGU have a period of seasonal strength until the end of December. If using the seasonality discipline, it’s too early to consider the use of short term momentum indicators to fine tune an exit point. Feel free to use short term momentum indictors if you are a short term trader. Tech Talk usually does not attempt to offer suggestions based on momentum indicators in between the identified seasonal entry and exit points.
November 23rd, 2009 at 7:12 pm
Hi H. Hunter. LOL. Service continues as long as we are having fun. Not all questions are answered, but all are welcome. Some of the questions and comments generate interesting ideas. Keep them coming.
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:20 pm
Don – Truly appreciate you taking the time to help us small time investors, so when your new fund opened, I was one that bought shares in HAC. Im not sure if you benefit financially in any way by us buying shares, but this is my way of saying thanks and Im sure you’re appreciated by others who have bought HAC shares as well since it opened, just because you are one of the analysts involved. Again a most sincere thank you- and I say this with utmost sincerity (and am sure others feel the same way too) as your guidance (unbiased and free) has helped make a better life financially for me and my family.
November 23rd, 2009 at 9:48 pm
I must say that’s a very nice looking photo http://www.tmx.com/en/images/highRes/Nov20-2009.jpg . . . All smiling and obviously happy . . . nice to see that today . . . I wonder if you can tell us who are the better halfs? . . . anyway, our many thanks to them for allowing you and Brooke the time to do this for us.