Comments on: Tech Talk for Wednesday November 25th 2009

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 15:49:26 +0000

Hi Vin. Emotion unfortunately has a significant impact on most investors. That’s why Tech Talk has invited Adrienne Toghraie to offer her “trading coach” column that encourages development of an investment plan and the courage (discipline) to impliment the plan. The intention is to minimize emotion when making investment decisions. Tech Talk’s disciplined approach using a combination of technical, fundamental and seasonality research is one of many possible plans. Best to do your homework by developing a plan that fits your investment style before deciding to re-enter equity markets.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 15:37:08 +0000

Hi Joe. That’s one way of putting it. For the past nine year, I have explained why “Buy and Hold” does not work anymore. Equity markets move in 16 year cycles alternating from good (1950-1966, 1983-1999)when markets trend higher to bad (1934-1950,1966-1982)when markets are choppy with no defined long term trend. The current cycle is a bad cycle that is scheduled to last until 2015. The best way to profit during a bad cycle is to complete trades lasting 1-6 months that take advantage of seasonal trends. HAC is designed for investors who would like someone to do these trades for them in a well defined disciplined way. With this fund, “Buy and Hold” works.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 15:27:16 +0000

Hi Neil. ETFs trade approximately at their Net Asset Value. Market makers bracket their bid/ask spreads around NAV.

By: Vin

Vin — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 01:19:56 +0000

Dear Don, It is hard for me to make sense of all this sophisticated analysis. I am sitting on cash I collected by selling the market at the bottom. I have seen the market go up but did not have the courage to get back in. Any advice where I can invest this money. I don’t want to lose any more capital but then this money is not a must for my survival. Thanks for your valuable advice.

By: Joe

Joe — Thu, 26 Nov 2009 00:51:15 +0000

Hi Don,

I want to first thank you for a fresh look at investing in these markets good and bad. My questions is regarding the new ETF, you advise on. So can one assume that the Horizon AlphaPro Seasonal Rotation ETF (HAC), is the couch Potato approach to the Seasonality and Technical investing we follow here? Or for someone novice is a good way to get exposure to this style of investing.

By: Neil

Neil — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 22:40:58 +0000

Thanks Fred
I appreciate you taking the time to explain such a basic concept.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:03:18 +0000

Hi Roy. POT currently has a positive intermediate profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of December. Its short term technical profile is less positive. Short term momentum indictors are overbought. RSI and Stochastics are showing early signs of rolling over. Preferred strategy is to hold until close to the end of the period of seasonal strength. However, short term investors may want to act sooner based on negative short term momentum indicators when they happen (e.g. a move by Stochastics below 80% and/or a negative MACD crossover). That’s your call.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:56:59 +0000

Hi Isabela. Lots of places to put cash, but not much yield. Depends upon the size and the need for liquidity. Possibilities include bank deposits, T-bills, money market instruments and ETFs invested in short term debt instruments.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:54:06 +0000

Hi Fred. That’s a correct reading on CP. Close, but no cigar.

By: Isabela

Isabela — Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:15:53 +0000

Hello,
This is the only Q&A that I follow, so I apologize for the stupid question but I don’t know where else to ask: what do you do with your cash in between the trades? Do you keep it in cash or do you buy something, if you buy then what (example)?

Thanks a lot and thank you Don for all your effort, it is very much appreciated.