Pre-opening Comments for Thursday December 10^th

U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures added 6 points in pre-opening trade. Weakness in the U.S. Dollar helped futures. Commodities priced in U.S. Dollars including crude oil, gold and silver are trading higher.

Response to U.S. economic news released at 8:30 AM EST was muted. Consensus for the October trade deficit was $36.5 billion. Actual was $32.9 billion. Exports were notably stronger. Weekly jobless claims unexpectedly rose 17,000 to 474,000.

The Canadian Dollar gained 0.50 U.S. after reporting a lower than expected trade deficit in October. Consensus was a deficit of $700 million versus a deficit of $850 million in September. Actual was a deficit of $428 million.

Media reports suggest that Citigroup plans to raise up to $20 billion in new equity to help repay its TARP loans. Citigroup added 1% in overnight trading.

Rogers Communications was downgraded from Buy to Hold by Canaccord.

Cenovus Energy was initiated as an Outperform by Bernstein.

Costco added 1% after the company reported fiscal first quarter earnings in line with consensus at $0.60 per share.

Technical Action During the Past Few Days

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks has been slightly bearish since last Friday. The Up/Down ratio for S&P 500 stocks fell from 2.94 last Friday to (318/109=) 2.92 on Tuesday and to (316/111=) 2.85 yesterday. Yesterday, three S&P 500 stocks broke resistance (JDS Uniphase, Broadcom and DeVry) and five stocks broke support (Assurant, Family Dollar, GAP stores, Kroger and Devon Energy).

Technical action by TSX Composite stocks turned bearish yesterday. The Up/Down ratio improved from 3.83 last Friday to 3.86 on Tuesday, but fell to (135/40=) 3.38 yesterday. Two TSX stocks broke resistance yesterday (Keyera Trust and Fortis) and four stocks broke support (Altagas Trust, Pengrowth Trust, Talisman and Vitera).

Interesting Charts

The U.S. technology sector continues to show an improving technical profile. JDS Uniphase and Broadcom closed at new highs yesterday. Apple had a big new on new product news. ‘Tis the season for the technology sector to move higher!

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com

‘Tis the season for the energy sector to struggle on the charts! Equity energy indices on both sides of the border broke key support levels yesterday. Seasonal influences historically don’t turn positive until February. History is about to repeat. It’s too early to enter the sector.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com

Selected energy stocks and trusts on both sides of the border are breaking key support levels despite colder than average weather and a snow storm across the U.S. mid-west.

Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com

ETF News

The FP Trading Desk has an interesting article on “New ETFs for Christians”. Following is a link to the article:

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2009/12/09/new-etfs-for-christians.aspx

Thackray’s December Market Letter

Brooke published his monthly Market Letter yesterday. Highlights in the letter include:

• An overview on North American equity markets
• A list of content and weights in the Horizon AlphaPro Seasonal Rotation ETF on November 30^th
• An update on the Canadian Materials sector, U.S. Technology sector, the Agriculture sector, the Consumer Discretionary sector and the Canadian Financial Services sector. All are held in through ETFs in the fund.
• A review on seasonal trades that are on the radar screen including the U.S. Small Cap sector, Platinum, Metals and Mining and Materials

Brooke’s report is available by subscription. Cost of the subscription is $0. To subscribe, send an email to subscribe@alphamountain.com with SUBSCRIBE in the subject line. Also, please state your first and last name, city and country.

Ken Norquay’s Column

Country and Folk songs: Financial Wisdom in Disguise.

It’s early December and the days are getting really short. Our native ancestors called this time of year The Season of Dreams: the time of thinking and remembering. In the stock market, we can turn thinking and remembering into money. For this reason, in my book, Beyond the Bull, I encourage investors to be objective in their thinking and objective in their remembrance.

Critics would say, “That’s crazy: we remember what we remember. There’s no ‘objective remembering’ or ‘subjective remembering.’ There’s only remembering and forgetting.”

This is not true. The human brain is not wired that way. We are creatures who seek pleasure and avoid pain. I suggest that your memory is like this. Sometimes we forget those painful times.

Do you remember what the stock market was doing in early December 2008, one year ago? Investors were afraid to open their monthly account statements. There was blood in the financial streets. People’s retirement plans needed to be re-written.

We’d rather remember that, one year ago in December ‘08, the S&P 500 index was around 9000 and now it’s around 1100. We’d rather forget that two years ago, in December ‘07 it was around 1500. And we definitely want to forget that ten years ago it was around 1500 in the year 2000.

The days are getting shorter and shorter for those who would have us buy and hold for the long term. It’s just not working any more.

For guidance in this area, I recommend some simple philosophy from country singer Kenny Rogers. In his song, The Gambler, Kenny received the following advice from an old man on a train:

"If you’re gonna play the game, boy, ya gotta learn to play it right.
You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em,
Know when to walk away and know when to run.
You never count your money when you’re sittin’ at the table.
There’ll be time enough for countin’ when the dealin’s done.
Ev’ry gambler knows that the secret to survivin’
Is knowin’ what to throw away and knowing what to keep.
‘Cause ev’ry hand’s a winner and ev’ry hand’s a loser,
And the best that you can hope for is to die in your sleep."

The problem with today’s investors is they don’t know when to fold ‘em. They think they should always hold ‘em.

Further advice on this topic comes from folk singer Bob Dylan, who sang: “The Times, they are a-changin’.” It appears that the times have changed: buying and holding no longer works. Now we have to know when to fold ‘em too.

As you ponder your dreams in the next few weeks, remember. Your financial dreams are woven in this world of harsh reality: in this world of survival of the fittest. If your dreams of easy wealth in your retirement have vanished, remember that. Remember it objectively. For, when the Season of Dreams ends, it will be time to wake up.

There is real risk in the stock market. It requires offence and defence. It’s not a cake-walk to riches: “You got to know when to hold ‘em, know when to fold ‘em.”

Ken Norquay, CMT

Chief Market Strategist and Partner

CastleMoore Inc

“Buy, hold and know when to sell.”

Links to Beyond the Bull:

Canada
http://www.amazon.ca/Beyond-Bull-Taking-Market-Wisdom/dp/0980923182/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1228246016&sr=8-1
US
http://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Bull-Taking-Market-Wisdom/dp/0980923182/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1228246055&sr=8-1
UK
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Beyond-Bull-Taking-Market-Wisdom/dp/0980923182/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1228245979&sr=8-1

Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide

Tech Talk frequently mentions Brooke Thackray and his book entitled, “Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide”. The book summarizes attractive seasonal trades that are available during the year. The book can be purchased electronically or directly at Chapters, Amazon.ca, Barnes & Noble and Amazon.com. Following are links to these book stores:

http://www.chapters.indigo.ca/books/Thackrays-2010-Investors-Guide-Brooke-Thackray/9780978220037-item.html?ref=Search+Books:+%27thackray%27s%27
http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/097822003X/ref=s9_sims_gw_s0_p14_i1?pf_rd_m=A3DWYIK6Y9EEQB&pf_rd_s=center-1&pf_rd_r=0773ED3P045NMSDK94ZA&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=465532811&pf_rd_i=915398
http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Thackrays-2010-Investors-Guide/Brooke-Thackray/e/9780978220037/?itm=1
http://www.amazon.com/Thackrays-2010-Investors-Guide-Seasonal/dp/097822003X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1252640152&sr=8-1

Seasonal trades in the book that currently are active include Agriculture, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Natural Gas and Metals & Mining.

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don Vialoux is a research analyst for JovInvestment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the author and are not necessarily the views of JovInvestment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by JovInvestment Management Inc

HAP Seasonal Rotation E.T.F. | HAC-T $10.10 December 9,2009

Open	10.070			-
High	10.100		-
Low	10.000		-
Bid x2	10.040		-
Ask x50	10.110		-
Volume	22,705		-
52-wk High 12/03	10.400		-
52-wk Low 12/09	10.000		-

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