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(Editor’s Note: Next Tech Talk report is available on Wednesday December 16th)
Economic News This Week
Look for lots of positive economic news this week!
November Producer Prices to be reported on Tuesday at 8:30 AM EST are expected to increase 0.2% versus a decline of 0.6% in October. Core PPI is expected to increase 0.8% versus 0.3% in October.
The December New York Empire Manufacturing Index to be reported on Tuesday at 8:30 AM is expected to improve to 24.00 from 23.51 in October.
November Capacity Utilization to be reported on Tuesday at 9:15 AM EST is expected to improve to 71.1% from 70.7% in October.
November Industrial Production to be reported on Tuesday at 9:15 AM EST is expected to improve by 0.5% versus an increase of 0.1% in October.
November Housing Starts to be reported on Wednesday at 8:30 AM EST is expected to increase to 578,000 from 529,000 in October.
November Consumer Prices to be reported on Wednesday at 8:30 AM EST are expected to increase 0.4% versus a gain of 0.2% in October. Core CPI is expected to increase 0.1% versus 0.3% in October.
Results of the Federal Open Market Committee Meeting are to be released on Wednesday at 2:15 PM EST. The Fed Fund rate is expected to remain the same at 0.25%.
November Leading Economic Indicators to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase by 0.7% versus 0.3% in October.
The December Philadelphia Fed report to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday is expected to slip to 16.0 from 16.7 in November.
Earnings News This Week
Monday sees Carnival
Tuesday sees Best Buy and Transcontinental
Thursday sees Fedex, General Mills, Nike, Oracle and Research in Motion
Equity Index Trends
The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. Up/Down ratio) improved last week from 2.94 to (320/108=) 2.96. The ratio remains intermediate overbought.
Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks slipped from 74.60% to 72.80% last week. The Index remains below its 15 day moving average and remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Up/Down ratio for TSX Composite stocks fell from 3.83 to (137/42=) 3.26. The ratio remains intermediate overbought.
Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks eased from 79.80% to 78.82% last week. The Index remains below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The S&P 500 Index added 0.43 (0.04%) last week despite strength in the U.S. Dollar, an encouraging technical sign. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index once again bounced from near its 50 day moving average. Short term momentum indictors currently are neutral. Support is indicated at 1,029.38. Seasonal influences currently are positive
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average slipped last week from 68.80% to 67.80%. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average slipped from 90.20% to 90.00% last week. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average improved 82.60 points (0.79%) last week despite strength in the U.S. Dollar. Intermediate trend remains up. Its 50 day moving average currently at 10,109.46 has proven to be a reliable intermediate support level. Short term momentum indicators recently slipped to a neutral level. Support also is indicated at 9,678.95. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Seasonal influences currently are positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks slipped last week from 86.67% to 83.33%. The Index slipped once again below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks inched up last week from 58.22% to 58.44% and moved above its 50 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The NASDAQ Composite Index eased 4.04 points (0.18%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are slightly overbought. Seasonal influences currently are positive. Support is indicated at 2,024.27. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Russell 2000 Index slipped 2.42 points (0.40%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. MACD and RSI are neutral and Stochastics are short term overbought. Support is indicated at 553.31. Resistance is at 606.77 and 625.31. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative, but is showing early signs of turning positive. The sector’s period of seasonal strength is from December 19th to March 7th. Technicals for entry into the seasonal trade are not there yet.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Dow Jones Transportation Average slipped 7.94 points (0.19%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. The Average remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indictors are overbought, but have yet to show signs of rolling over. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral. Support is indicated at 3,546.48.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The TSX Composite Index slipped 86.87 points (0.75%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Support is indicated at 10,745.25. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has returned to negative. MACD and RSI have declined to a neutral level. Stochastics have declined to an oversold level. Short term momentum indicators have yet to show signs of bottoming. Seasonal influences remain positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average slipped from 56.65% to 55.17% last week. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average slipped from 84.73% to 83.74% last week. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index eased 69.80 points (1.48%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains in a three month trading range between 4,515.30 and 4,897.50. MACD and RSI are neutral. Stochastics are short term oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has turned negative. Seasonal influences are positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Nikkei Average gained 85.28 points (0.83%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Support has formed at 9,076.41. Resistance is at 10,397.69 and 10,767.00. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators continued to recover from oversold levels. Stochastics already are short term overbought. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative, but continues to show early signs of turning positive. Seasonal influences are positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Shanghai Composite Index slipped 69.73 points (2.10%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. A triangle pattern has emerged. Support could be forming at 3,080.88 and resistance could be forming at 3,361.38. Short term momentum indicators are slightly overbought. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The London FT Index eased 60.79 points (1.14%), the Frankfurt DAX Index gave up 61.36 points (1.05%) and the Paris CAC Index fell 42.90 points (1.12%) last week. Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com
Currencies
The U.S. Dollar added 0.73 last week and tested resistance at 76.82. Next resistance is at 77.47.The push above its 50 day moving average on Friday December 4th proved to be a significant technical event. Despite strength, the U.S. Dollar remains in an intermediate downtrend. MACD and RSI have recovered from short term oversold levels. Stochastics already are short term overbought. Short term momentum indicators have yet to show significant signs of peaking. Seasonal influences are negative until the end of December. Thereafter, they turn positive. The U.S. Dollar responded favourably last week to better than expected economic news (e.g. retail sales). Most likely scenario between now and yearend is a flat to slightly lower Dollar (Possible head and shoulders reversal?). Stay tuned!
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Conversely, the Euro lost 2.38 last week following a break below its 50 day moving average. On Friday, it broke support at 146.32. Intermediate trend changed from up to neutral. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Canadian Dollar slipped 0.19 last week. Intermediate trend remains up. The Canuck Buck remains in a three month trading range between 92.16 and 97.69. Short term momentum indicators are neutral.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Commodities
The CRB Index slipped 2.12% last week with strength in the U.S. Dollar, but remained in a three month trading range between 267.48 and 285.18. Intermediate trend remains up. MACD and RSI are trending lower from overbought levels. Stochastics already are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Inflationary pressures on a year-over-year basis based on higher commodity prices moved from negative to positive in October and begin to accelerate when PPI and CPI figures are released this week.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Crude oil fell $3.52 (4.66%) per barrel last week. Support is at $65.05. Its 200 day moving average at $65.79 also is likely a support level. Resistance is at $82.00. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Stochastics and RSI may be trying to bottom. Crude oil has a history of bottoming in mid December, forming a base and entering into a period of seasonal strength near the end of February. History is about to repeat.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Gasoline prices have a similar technical profile. Six month trading range is between $1.60 and $2.10. Stochastics are short term oversold.
Chart courtesy of SeasonalCharts.com www.seasonalcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Natural gas gained $0.59 per MBtu (12.83%) last week. Favourable seasonal influences are coming to an end. Short term momentum indicators are overbought. A technical sell signal is pending.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Energy equity indices on both sides of the border are testing the bottom of their trading range. The S&P Energy Index remains in a two month trading range between 417.67 and 457.00. Short term momentum indicators (notably Stochastics) are trying to recover from an oversold level.
The TSX Energy Index has a similar technical profile. Its two month trading range is between 271.29 and 309.46. Short term momentum indicators (notably Stochastics) are trying to recover from an oversold level.
These comments on energy indices are controversial because several energy stocks broke key support levels last week and established intermediate downtrends. On the other hand, colder- than-average weather triggered buying in the sector late last week. Colder-than-average weather in long term forecasts this winter suggests that the energy equity sector is likely to bottom before the end of December followed by a base building period into January followed by a seasonal trade into spring. See additional comments at the end of this report for more information.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Gold fell another $47.20 U.S. per ounce last week in response to strength in the U.S. Dollar. Stochastics are short term oversold, but continue to trend lower.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Gold has a history of reaching a seasonal peak in mid January.
Gold equity indices remain in an intermediate uptrend. Stochastics show that they are short term oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to gold remains negative.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Silver also came under pressure with strength in the U.S. Dollar. It fell $1.34 per ounce (7.24%) last week. Support is at $16.11 per ounce. Stochastics are short term oversold. The sector has a seasonal “sweet spot” starting in the second half of December and continuing until April. The technical entry point is not there yet. Stay tuned!
Ditto for Platinum! According to Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide, its period of seasonal strength is from January to May and has been one of the most reliable seasonal trades during the past 22 years. Short term momentum indicators (notably Stochastics) are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. The technical entry point for the seasonal trade is not there yet. Stay tuned!
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Copper slipped $0.10 per lb. last week, but recovered strongly on Friday. Intermediate trend remains up. Copper responded on Friday to news that China’s industrial production rose at an annual rate of 19.2% in November. ‘Tis the season for copper to move higher!
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Ditto for grain prices: a strong recovery on Friday! Stochastics recorded a short term buy signal on Friday. Favourable seasonal influences for the Agriculture sector finish at the end of December. Stay tuned for a technical signal to take profits on strength.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Lumber prices came under pressure last week. Stochastics are short term oversold. ‘Tis the season for lumber prices to move higher!
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Financials
The yield on long term U.S. Treasuries continued to climb last week. The yield on ten year treasuries added another 0.07%. Yield remains in a six month trading range between 3.21% and 3.98%. Short term momentum indicators currently are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Traders will be watching closely for a possible signal from the Fed this Wednesday. The Fed Fund rate will remain the same, but the Fed may provide insights on when its easy money policy will end.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The S&P Financial Services Index remains in a five month trading range between 185.53 and 212.09. Stochastics are short term oversold and may be trying to recover. Seasonal influences turn positive in mid- January.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The TSX Financial Services Index was virtually unchanged again last week. It remains in five month trading range between 162.75 and 181.93. Favourable seasonal influences expire at the end of December. Stay tuned for an optimal profit taking point based on short term momentum indicators.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Other Factors
The VIX Index increased from 21.25% to 21.59% last week. It continues to test the bottom of a seven month trading range.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Baltic Dry Index fell 12.85% last week. Intermediate trend remains up.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
North American equity indices are following their traditional patterns at this time of year. Historically, they have been choppy, with little or no gain in the first half of December and strongly higher in the second half. December has been the best month of the year during the past 10 years for the TSX Composite Index and third best for the S&P 500 Index.
The stage is set for a typical year end rally. According to Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide, the Santa Claus rally starts on December 15th and ends on January 6th. The trade has been profitable in 44 of the past 59 periods, break even in 3 periods and unprofitable in 12 periods. Average gain per period by the S&P 500 Index was 2.0%. The NASDAQ Composite Index has been stronger during this period. The Index has gained in 29 of the past 38 periods for an average gain per period of 3.0%. Annual recurring events supporting a Santa Claus rally this year include:
- The end of year end tax loss selling pressures. Tax loss selling pressures have been lower than average this year due to gains recorded by most equities and ETFs in 2009.
- Favourable comments by strategists in year end reports released in December. Last year, strategists were cautious in these reports. This year, they are more bullish. On Friday, JP Morgan raised its fourth quarter GDP estimate in the U.S. to an annual rate of 4.5%, up from 3.5%. Look for other strategists to follow.
- The uplifting mood during the Christmas holiday season. Individual investors have greater influence on equity markets during the season. They are in a more jovial mood than last Christmas
- Higher year end bonuses. The headline on Thursday in the Globe and Mail noted that the financial service industry in Canada is scheduled to issue record high bonuses. Other employers also are expected to raise bonus when paid in early January.
Economic news is becoming more positive. Look for lots of economic news this week that will confirm that the recovery in the U.S. has finally here. In particular, watch for news about inflation. When inflation pressures start to increase, people buy more in anticipation of higher prices. That’s the scenario between now and next April, implying higher equity markets until that time.
Technical indicators on equity markets, currencies and commodities were mixed last week. Most remain intermediate overbought, but have yet to show signs of rolling over. In contrast, many short term technical indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. The technicals are set up for a year end rally where short term momentum indicators recover nicely from oversold levels.
Weather conditions once again could influence equity markets this week. Colder-than-average weather and early snow storms dampened consumer enthusiasm last week. Look for a reprieve this week.
Political events this week will not help equity markets. The Copenhagen climate conference will be in the spotlight. Congress is struggling with Health Care and Regulatory Controls over the financial services industry.
Watch out for extra volatility on Quadruple Witching Day this Friday.
The Bottom Line
‘Tis the season for equity markets to move higher until early January! Look for history to repeat.
Tech Talk’s Weekly Column in the Financial Post
(Available by paid subscription at www.nationalpost.com )
Investment Opportunities related to Climate Change
Interesting headlines in the media this week! “Negotiations at the Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change continue”. “Climategate boosts the hope of skeptics”. “First major snowstorm of the year hits the U.S. Midwest”. Investors at best are confused about what to believe and how to invest.
Fundamental influences
Extreme views on both sides of the climate change issues are dominating the headlines. The environmentalists with extreme views claim that world governments must act immediately to lessen the impact of greenhouse gas emissions on global warming. If governments don’t act, world economies will collapse. The skeptics with equally extreme views claim that scientific proof of global warming due to greenhouse gas emissions has yet to be proven. Massive government expenditures to reduce greenhouse gases at a time of fragile economic growth will cause world economies to collapse.
A plague on both their houses! Both sides of the debate are highly partisan and focused on the impact of greenhouse gas emissions. Neither side is willing to concede that greenhouse gases are one of many factors that influence climate including sun spot activity and changes in ocean currents. The extreme environmentalists are not willing to concede that global warming also has its benefits particularly in Canada. Canadians, who paid higher than average heating bills during the past two winters, would love to see warmer weather in winter. Canadian farmers growing grain crops would love to have a few extra days each year to grow their crops. Conversely, the extreme skeptics fail to mention that living in smoggy Toronto in the middle of summer is not a pleasant experience.
The bottom line is that the effort to save on energy is a goal that both sides of the debate can support. Governments should continue to offer policies that move in this direction.
Seasonal influences
Sufficient scientific evidence on the impact of global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions probably exists despite embarrassing revelations revealed in Climategate. Eventually, higher greenhouse gas emissions likely will cause world temperatures to rise. However, greenhouse gas emissions may not be the most significant factor currently influencing climate. Sunspot activity plays a key role.
The Sun acts as an enormous heater for the earth. Greater sunspot activity adds to the earth’s temperature. Shut down the heating, and the temperature on earth decreases. Sunspots have recorded a fairly reliable 11 year cycle since first recorded in 1610. The current cycle peaked in 2001 when over 150 sunspots were recorded. The number of sunspots subsequently declined until they approached 0 at the beginning of 2008. They have remained near 0 since then. In November 2009 the number of sunspots averaged only 4.6. World temperatures have been significantly lower than average since late 2007. Data suggests that the bottom of the current 11 year cycle likely has been reached and a recovery to its next peak in early 2013 has started. However, continued cooling caused by current low sunspot activity suggests that winter heating bills will be higher than average for the third consecutive winter. During this winter, look for the extreme skeptics to say “I told you so!” After this winter is over when sunspot activity recovers and world temperatures begin to move higher, look for the extreme environmentalists to say “I told you so!”
How to invest
A colder than average winter this year triggered by lower than average sunspot activity is expected to have a positive impact on the prices of energy and energy equities during their next period of seasonal strength from February to May 2010. According to Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide, the period of seasonal strength for the S&P Energy sector is from February 25th to May 9th. The trade has been profitable in 23 of the past 26 periods for an average gain per period of 8.9%. The TSX Energy Index has a similar period of seasonal strength. The TSX Energy Index has advanced in nine of the past 10 periods from the end of January to the end of May for an average gain per period of 14.7%. The easiest way to invest in the sector is through Exchange Traded Funds that track crude oil prices and energy equity indices.
A word of caution! Seasonal influences on energy Exchange Traded Funds have yet to surface despite colder than average weather throughout North America last week. Intermediate technical parameters for the sector remain unattractive. It’s too early to enter the seasonal trade.
Mr. Vialoux’s Interview on BNN Television on Friday
Following is a link to the interview
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip245337
Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide
Tech Talk frequently mentions Brooke Thackray and his book entitled, “Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide”. The book summarizes attractive seasonal trades that are available during the year. The book can be purchased electronically or directly at Chapters, Amazon.ca, Barnes & Noble and Amazon.com. Following are links to these book stores:
http://www.chapters.indigo.ca/books/Thackrays-2010-Investors-Guide-Brooke-Thackray/9780978220037-item.html?ref=Search+Books:+%27thackray%27s%27
http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/097822003X/ref=s9_sims_gw_s0_p14_i1?pf_rd_m=A3DWYIK6Y9EEQB&pf_rd_s=center-1&pf_rd_r=0773ED3P045NMSDK94ZA&pf_rd_t=101&pf_rd_p=465532811&pf_rd_i=915398
http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Thackrays-2010-Investors-Guide/Brooke-Thackray/e/9780978220037/?itm=1
http://www.amazon.com/Thackrays-2010-Investors-Guide-Seasonal/dp/097822003X/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1252640152&sr=8-1
Seasonal trades in the book that currently are active include Agriculture, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Natural Gas and Metals & Mining.
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don Vialoux is a research analyst for JovInvestment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the author and are not necessarily the views of JovInvestment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by JovInvestment Management Inc
HAP Seasonal Rotation E.T.F. | HAC-T $10.12 December 11th 2009
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Open |
10.130 |
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- |
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High |
10.130 |
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Low |
10.050 |
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Bid x- |
10.070 |
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Ask x- |
10.130 |
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Volume |
10,890 |
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52-wk High 12/03 |
10.400 |
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52-wk Low 12/09 |
10.000 |
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Discussions from the Tech Talk Forum:
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December 14th, 2009 at 4:55 am
thank you for your informative reports in the FP and on your web site.
With regards to ‘Seasonal influences on Energy ETFs have yet to surface….It’s too early to enter the seasonal trade.’ Will you signal the time to enter in January?
Thank you again
December 14th, 2009 at 8:56 am
Hi Don. Great report and good seeing you on BNN (you should be on every week!). Within the energy sector, is there a difference in seasonality between the integrated, explorers and producers?
December 14th, 2009 at 10:47 am
Don,
Do you see a reverse head and shoulders pattern developing on the TSE index with
the left hand shoulder formed in late September?
December 14th, 2009 at 11:07 am
Hi Don, hope you packed your woolies for Winnipeg this week.
On Friday, you mentioned Forzani on BNN. When 200 shares were not abailable and iTrade warned to expect volatility. I am surprised. Is Forzani not well supported by market makers and what does that say about the stock?
December 14th, 2009 at 1:05 pm
i heard a hedge fund in the states has a huge percentage of forzani and they basically move the stock.
December 14th, 2009 at 1:12 pm
Hi Don
You have mentioned that the period of seasonal strength for the Agri sector ends at the end of december. Based on TA, do you still feel DE.N will attain your target of 65 to 68 and VT.TO will reach your target of around 14.60 in the next 12 or so trading days till the end of the month? Thanks for your reply.
December 14th, 2009 at 1:54 pm
Hi Don,
Can you shed some light on when short term momentum indicators are considered to have peaked or bottomed on a given chart please ? Thankyou.
Joe
December 14th, 2009 at 3:09 pm
I’ve been reading this newsletter for a long time.
Don, please dont wade into the Global Warming debate here – it just isnt your specialization. For example, you say that farmers might want a few more days of warmth-well global warming affects rainfall too and the prairies might be getting less of it, so saying that extra warming might not be a bad thing is a bad argument – one could go on – but this is not the forum….
December 14th, 2009 at 5:54 pm
MMM…”Stagdeflation”(sp)?…last time i looked this is Don’s blog (or what ever these kids call them)so he can say what ever he wants. On the other hand if you don’t agree with him, no need to comment.
December 14th, 2009 at 6:44 pm
i agree with dj, stagdeflation.
December 15th, 2009 at 9:32 am
Blogs are for commenting on….. did you just join us from the over 50′s club? Welcome to the Internet.
December 15th, 2009 at 11:54 am
Hey watch it,Stagdeflation, I’m over 70 and have been on the internet since you were in short pants – back almost to when Al Gore invented it!
December 15th, 2009 at 2:30 pm
Hi Belliard Jay. Yes, we will try to fine tune the entry point for the seasonal trade. Best guess is that trade will come earlier than usual this year. The market will let us know.
December 15th, 2009 at 2:35 pm
Hi Michael. Yes, there is a difference among sub-sectors in the energy sector. The February 25th to May 9th period is the sweet spot for U.S. energy equities and ETFs. Seasonality in U.S. exploration and U.S. oil service stocks usually clicks in near the end of January. Seasonality in Canadian energy stocks tends to appear in mid January when rumors of exploration success in northern Canada during the winter drilling season usually start to surface (not so much this year.)
December 15th, 2009 at 2:38 pm
Hi Roy. Seasonal investors will be looking to fine tune liquidation of equities and ETFs in the Agriculture sector by approximately the end of December. The market will let us know when the time arrives. The focus is on the sector and its ETFs.