Comments on: Tech Talk for Wednesday December 16th 2009

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:25:47 +0000

Hi Jan. XEG is the best of your three selections. However, annual recurring events (other than weather) that favourably influences the sector for a seasonal trade are not there yet.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:20:35 +0000

Hi Bob Hendry. According to Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide, the Santa Claus rally normally starts on December 15th and ends January 6th. Annual recurring events that support the trade are lining up nicely this year (lower than average tax loss selling pressures, a better investment atmosphere for individual investors this year relative to last year, higher year end bonus payments than last year). The Santa Claus rally tends to be a period when all sectors move higher. Honourable mention can be given to the Small Cap sector that benefits from year end transactions.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:13:59 +0000

Hi Roy. According to Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide, the period of seasonal strength for the Metals and Mining sector is from November 19th to May 5th. Recent weakness in the sector early this month has provided a buying opportunity.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:09:49 +0000

Hi Fred. The charts will let us know when action is needed. Currently, many equity and sector indices are overbought, but have yet to show short term momentum signs of rolling over.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:07:44 +0000

Hi Norm. A full report on the Small Cap trade is offered in this Saturday’s Financial Post.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:06:38 +0000

Hi Brendan. The market makers know content of the portfolio and bracket the NAV with bid/ask quotes on a real time basis.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:04:32 +0000

Hi DaddyO. Seasonal trades are based on a series of favourable annual recurring events. Outside of the period of seasonal strength, markets and sectors are random due to a lack of annual recurring events. Accordingly, trading the downside outside of the period of seasonal strength is not a wise strategy.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:01:12 +0000

Hi Richard. Nice breakout last week by MT. Seasonal influences for steel companies as part of the Materials sector is from October to April. The S&P Materials Index has gained in 9 of the past 10 periods for an average gain per period of 12.6%.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:54:11 +0000

Hi Larry. HAC is a buy and hold ETF. Back testing over the past 19 years on trades indicated in Thackray’s 2009 Investor’s Guide showed an average gain per year of 18.5% versus an average gain of 5.9% by the TSX Composite and an average gain of 6.9% for the S&P 500 Index (plus dividends in each case). Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

By: Norm

Norm — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 06:15:04 +0000

Thanks Michael…I’ll look into that one…