(Editor’s Note: Next Tech Talk report appears on Monday December 28^th)

 

Pre-opening Comments for Thursday December 24^th

U.S. equity index futures are higher again this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 2 points in pre-opening trade. Weakness in the U.S. Dollar supported early gains. Commodities priced in U.S. Dollars including gold, silver, crude oil and copper moved higher.

History is repeating itself. Equity markets have a history of moving higher on Christmas Eve day. Since 1900, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has recorded a gain 70% of the time. The Santa Claus rally continues.

U.S. Health Care stocks are unchanged despite the Senate’s passage of the Health Care bill this morning.

Index futures moved slightly higher following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Weekly jobless claims fell 28,000 to 452,000, the lowest level since September 2008. Consensus for November Durable Goods Orders was a gain of 0.4% versus a decline of 0.6% in October. Actual was a gain of 0.2%. Excluding transportation, consensus was a gain of 1.0% versus a decline of 1.3% in October. Actual was a gain of 2.0%.

U.S. and Canadian equity markets are closed today at 1:00 PM EST for the Christmas holiday. Canadian equity markets also are closed on Monday for the Boxing Day holiday.

 

Technical Action Yesterday

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks remains bullish. Another 14 S&P 500 stocks broke resistance (Amphenol, Apartment Investments, Becton Dickenson, BMC Software, CB Richard Ellis, Conagra, Cognizant, Federated Investments, Omnicorp, Peabody Energy, Priceline, Public Storage, Southwestern Energy and Staples) and two stocks broke support (Cintas and Time Warner Cable). The Up/Down ratio increased from 3.68 to ((344/90=) 3.82.

Technical action by TSX Composite stocks also remains bullish. Another four TSX stocks broke resistance (Canadian Natural Resources, Fairfax Financial, Stantec and Westshore Terminals Trust) and none broke support. The Up/Down ratio improved from 5.24 to (154/27=) 5.70.

Interesting Charts

The technology sector continues to lead U.S. equity markets on the upside. ‘Tis the season for the sector to move higher until mid January!

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com

Interesting observation on the U.S. Dollar

Following is a link to a report offered yesterday on the FP Trading Desk

http://network.nationalpost.com/np/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2009/12/23/us-dollar-likely-in-bottoming-phase-not-new-bull-market.aspx

Events that will influence U.S. equity markets in 2010

Tech Talk has drafted a report that offers an outlook for equity markets in 2010. The report will be released at the end of next week in the Financial Post. A couple of interesting tidbits that likely will appear in the final version:

A surge in temporary employment will help to increase confidence in the U.S. economy in the first half of 2010. People will be hired to prepare and to follow up the 2010 census (held every 10 years). Census day is April 1^st. The number of federal employees spikes every ten years, particularly in the months of March (preparation) and May (follow up). Estimated number of temporary employees needed for the census is 500,000.

In 2010, North American equity markets likely will track historic performance during the second year after a U.S. President is elected.

Chart courtesy of SeasonalCharts.com www.seasonalcharts.com

Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide

Tech Talk frequently mentions Brooke Thackray and his book entitled, “Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide”. The book summarizes attractive seasonal trades that are available during the year. The book can be purchased electronically below at Amazon.ca.

U.S. Visitors click here: Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide (from Amazon.com)

Seasonal trades in the book that currently are active include Agriculture, Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Small Cap and Metals & Mining.

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don Vialoux is a research analyst for JovInvestment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the author and are not necessarily the views of JovInvestment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by JovInvestment Management Inc

HAP Seasonal Rotation E.T.F. | HAC-T $10.22 December 23, 2009

 

Net asset value per unit $10.19

 

Merry Christmas!

From Don, Jan, Jon and Karen

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