(Editor’s Note: Next Tech Talk report will be available on Monday January 18th)
Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday January 12th
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 8 points in pre-opening trade. Futures are responding to lower than expected earnings from Alcoa and negative guidance from Chevron.
Futures weakened further after the November U.S. trade deficit figure was released. Consensus was a deficit of $34.5 billion versus $32.9 billion in October. Actual was a deficit of $36.4 billion.
Canada’s trade balance moved to a deficit of $344 million in November from a surplus of $503 million in October. The Canadian Dollar came under modest downside pressure following the news.
Alcoa is down 7% after reporting less than consensus fourth quarter earnings. Consensus was a profit of $0.06 per share versus a loss of $0.28 per share last year. Actual was a profit of $0.01 per share.
Chevron slipped 2% after offering negative guidance on fourth quarter earnings. The company noted that profits from its refining and marketing business were down sharply in the quarter despite higher production. Other U.S. refining stocks also are trading lower.
The energy sector is expected to come under profit taking pressures this morning partially because of the Chevron news and partially because crude oil and natural gas prices are trading lower. The period of colder than average weather during the past week has ended.
U.S. semiconductor stocks are slightly lower after Bank of America/Merrill downgraded several stocks in the sector including Xilinx, PMC Sierra, Analog Devices and Altera.
Electronic Arts fell 8% after the company pre-released fourth quarter earnings that were lower than expected.
Bank of America/Merrill upgraded U.S. Steel from Neutral to Buy. Target was raised from $45 to $80.
Technical Action Yesterday
Technical action by S&P 500 stocks was quietly bullish yesterday. Four S&P 500 stocks broke resistance (Caterpillar, Convergys, Eaton and Textron) and one stock broke support (Colgate). The Up/Down ratio slipped from 6.05 to (380/64=) 5.94.
Technical action by TSX Composite stocks also was bullish yesterday. Five TSX Composite stocks broke resistance yesterday (Empire Companies, Freehold Royalty, Lundin Mining, Pengrowth and Sherritt) and none broke support. The Up/Down ratio increased from 6.92 to (169/21=) 8.05.
Relative Strength Review of U.S. Sector SPDRs From November 5th
(i.e. The Seasonal Buy Point for U.S. and Canadian equity markets)
Only modest changes in relative strength since our last report:
- Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Industrial, Materials and Health Care continue to outperform the S&P 500 Index since November 5th. The Technology sector is showing short term signs of losing its outperformance rank.
- Utilities lost its inclusion on the list of outperforming sectors. It now ranks market perform
- Consumer Staples, Financials and Energy continue to underperform the S&P 500. Energy. Energy is showing short term signs of outperformance.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
CSTA News
Next Montreal CSTA Meeting
Location: 2300-1200 avenue McGill College
Date: Monday January 18th
Time: 5:00 PM -7:00 PM
Speaker: Mark Bennett
Topic: Using advanced order types and technology alongside charts
Cost: Members: Free
First timers: Free
Non-members: $20
Registration: www.csta.org
Next Ottawa CSTA Meeting
Location: Suite 220, 1140 Morrison Drive
Date, time, speaker, topic and cost are the same as the Montreal meeting
Registration: www.csta.org
ETF News
Bank of Montreal plans to launch another nine Exchange Traded Funds in Canada later this month. Stay tuned for more information.
Six New iShares ETFs List on NYSE Arca
January 8, 2010–NYSE Euronext announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary, NYSE Arca, today began trading six new ETFs. The funds are advised by BlackRock Fund Advisors.
iShares 2012 S&P AMT-Free Municipal Series (MUAA)
The fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the S&P AMT-Free Municipal Series 2012 Index, which measures the performance of investment-grade U.S. municipal bonds maturing in 2012.
iShares 2013 S&P AMT-Free Municipal Series (MUAB)
The fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the S&P AMT-Free Municipal Series 2013 Index, which measures the performance of investment-grade U.S. municipal bonds maturing in 2013.
iShares 2014 S&P AMT-Free Municipal Series (MUAC)
The fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the S&P AMT-Free Municipal Series 2014 Index, which measures the performance of investment-grade U.S. municipal bonds maturing in 2014.
iShares 2015 S&P AMT-Free Municipal Series (MUAD)
The fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the S&P AMT-Free Municipal Series 2015 Index, which measures the performance of investment-grade U.S. municipal bonds maturing in 2015.
iShares 2016 S&P AMT-Free Municipal Series (MUAE)
The fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the S&P AMT-Free Municipal Series 2016 Index, which measures the performance of investment-grade U.S. municipal bonds maturing in 2016.
iShares 2017 S&P AMT-Free Municipal Series (MUAF)
The fund seeks investment results that correspond generally to the price and yield performance, before fees and expenses, of the S&P AMT-Free Municipal Series 2017 Index, which measures the performance of investment-grade U.S. municipal bonds maturing in 2017.
WisdomTree Grows Two New American Dollar ETFs
January 7, 2010 at 2:19 pm by ETF.com
WisdomTree has filed with the SEC to create two new funds that track the change of the American dollar against a basket of world currencies. The new funds will compete with PowerShares US DB Dollar ETF (UUP: Quote, Profile, Advanced Chart, News), which has attracted more than $3 billion from investors.
The WisdomTree Rising Dollar Fund, one of the new funds, will seek to provide performance equivalent to the change in the value of the US dollar against 15 other world currencies. The fund will invest in Treasury bonds, as well as money markets and currency contracts, to derive returns for its investors.
WisdomTree Commodity Currency Fund will seek out currency investments in countries with strong commodity producing industries. The fund is centered on the relative value of the currencies represented by the following countries: Australia, Brazil, Canada, Chile, Indonesia, Mexico, New Zealand, Norway, Russia and South Africa, according to the SEC filing
Actively-Managed ETFs Open New Growth Opportunities
January 7, 2010 at 2:12 pm by ETF.com
The actively-managed ETF space has opened a new horizon for growth in an industry that has forced itself to issue multiples of very similar index funds. Improving performance from active managers and a bevy of new funds are paving the groundwork for the next ETF growth explosion.
Traditional mutual fund companies like John Hancock and T. Rowe Price are already toying with the idea of actively-managed ETFs. Unfortunately, marketing active products in a bear market has proven to be difficult. The Wall Street Journal reports that as of December of 2009, 14 active ETFs contained just over $93 million in assets, which is enough to pay the listing fee for just one ETF issue.
However, as the market recovered in 2009, actively managed funds enjoyed a leg up on the indexed competition. The average stock fund posted gains of 32.8%, beating the average of 31.7% for indexed offerings. If active managers can continue to beat the market, investors may be more willing to pay the higher costs of having an active manager for prominent ETF families.
AdvisorShares Stays Neutral in Turbulent Waters with a New ETF
January 5, 2010 at 2:12 pm by ETF.com
To bridge turbulent market waters, AdvisorShares has filed to release a new actively-managed international ETF that will hold both long and short positions in other ETFs.
According to the SEC filing, the fund will be titled the HTE Global Relative Value ETF (GRV), named after the management firm HTE Asset Management. The fund seeks to remain neutral and avoid correlations with the general market trend to profit on both short and long positions in any market climate.
As with any market neutral or actively-managed investment, investors will need to review how the management firm performs before making any sizable investments. Achieving profits with a market neutral fund requires a skilled investment team, as well as timely market entry into new positions. Details including the planned annual expense rate have yet to be made public.
Adrienne Toghraie’s Traders Coach Column
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Getting Back Your Trading Mojo
By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Coach
The definition of “mojo” is: A magic power or magic spell. My own definition as it applies to traders is: Having the passion for enjoying the process of becoming a successful trader. This is an important ingredient for a trader because without trading mojo you may never start to trade or reach your full potential.
Losing your mojo
If someone were to put a work related activity in your in-box and say, “This is important,” you most likely would stop what you are doing and attend to that matter. What if, however, someone else were to say while handing you another assignment that it takes priority over what you are doing. Through the day the stack to complete priority assignments would grow to the point that the original assignment would now be at the bottom of the pile. Because of too many priorities in life, many people get emotionally weighed down and lose their mojo for trading
Lewis, a trader buried in life’s priorities
Lewis had the passion, the ability, the resources and the support to become a trader. Many traders could get hung up on not trading because they do not have any one of these necessary ingredients to become a trader, but Lewis had them all.
Just as Lewis started his first week as a professional trader, he received a call that his father had passed away. Naturally, he had to rush to his family’s side. Later in the week at the reading of the will, he was to find out his father left everything to him with the particular instructions that his brother and sister were to not receive anything. Lewis realized that this would be contested and cause problems between himself and his siblings. He agreed with his father’s choice with the caveat that he would share the wealth with his brother and sister if they were to change their negative choices for their lives. He let them know that he would spend any amount they needed to rehabilitate and educate them in order for them to have a good life. What this meant was that they would have to overcome their addiction to drugs and a generally depraved life. This met with violent anger on his brother’s part and depression on his sister’s part.
Lewis found his home ransacked by thugs hired by his brother. The violence kept escalating until Lewis’ children’s lives were threatened. One dramatic incident took precedent over the other. This ended with his brother being jailed, his sister going into rehab and his wife leaving with the children. Now, he had to contend with a divorce and losing his children. With all of this Lewis lost his trading mojo and his trading was at the bottom of the pile of his priorities in life.
Time gremlins
A trader does not have to have the drama of Lewis’ story to take away his mojo. It can be as unearth-shattering as priorities of time. Joe’s wife had to go out of town on business for a week leaving Joe with homemaker duties. The time gremlins started to accumulate from there. Joe’s church asked if he would take the place of the usher’s duty on Sunday. His mom asked him to take her to the doctor during trading hours and on top of all of this he caught a cold from one of his children. I think you get the picture.
Getting back your trading mojo
You will not be able to take control over your life until you make trading your priority. Yes, in Lewis’ case that was nearly impossible, but in most situations a trader becomes his own saboteur of time. In Joe’s case, he perhaps could have hired someone to take over the duties of the household, said “no” to his church and hired a taxi for his mom. Ideally, these contingencies should have been handled in his business plan.
Whatever your reason to side-step your trading and lose your mojo, here are some tips for getting it back:
· At the beginning of every week, and perhaps every day, review what trading
means to you and the benefits that you receive from being a trader
· Focus on the positive part of life and particularly your life
· Read inspiring stories of traders and other high achievers
· Attend a seminar that focuses on the psychology of trading
· Plan for as many contingencies that could interfere with your trading
· Make sure that all the significant people in your life are on board with helping
you by not being time grabbers
· Keep a journal to learn from your mistakes
· If you are not profitable, go back and revise your plan, find a mentor
· If you cannot follow your rules, hire a coach
Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Success Coach
Presents
Adrienne’s Master Class
Saturday, January 23rd – 10 AM – 2:00 PM
Washington DC Area
$500 US – pro-rated early enrollment – limited seating
Register – Now $300 – Call 919-851-8288
Brooke Thackray’s Monthly Newsletter
Highlights in Brooke’s newsletter released yesterday include the following:
- An equity market overview
- Holdings in the Horizons AlphaPro Seasonal Rotation ETF as of December 31st
- Comments on sectors that currently are in a period of seasonal strength including Small Caps, Platinum, Metals and Mining and Consumer Discretionary.
- Comments on sectors that have passed their period of seasonal strength including Technology, Agriculture and Canadian Financials
- Comments on sectors that are approaching their period of seasonal strength including Materials and Retail.
- An outlook for the U.S. Dollar relative to the Canadian Dollar
The newsletter is free. Subscribe by sending an email to subscribe@alphamountain.com with SUBSCRIBE in the subject line. Also, please state your first and last name, city and country.
World Outlook Financial Conference
Mr. Vialoux is speaking at the World Outlook Financial Conference in Vancouver on January 22nd /January 23rd. The conference features many well known North American speakers. Everyone is welcome. Following is a link to the conference:
http://www.worldoutlookconference.com/
FP Trading Desk Highlight
The following link summarizes expectation by U.S. institutional investors for 2010:
Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide
Tech Talk frequently mentions Brooke Thackray and his book entitled, “Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide”. The book summarizes attractive seasonal trades that are available during the year. The book can be purchased directly at Amazon.ca and Amazon.com. Following are links to these book stores:
Seasonal trades in the book that currently are active include Information Technology, Consumer Discretionary, Small Cap, Platinum and Metals & Mining.
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don Vialoux is a research analyst for JovInvestment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the author and are not necessarily the views of JovInvestment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by JovInvestment Management Inc
HAP Seasonal Rotation E.T.F. | HAC-T $10.45 January 11 2010
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Open |
10.560 |
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High |
10.560 |
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Low |
10.410 |
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Bid x2 |
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Ask x10 |
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Volume |
69,750 |
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52-wk High 01/11 |
10.560 |
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52-wk Low 12/09 |
10.000 |
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Net Asset Value per Unit: $10.39
Unit price reached an all time high at $10.56.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
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January 12th, 2010 at 6:13 am
Correction coming!
January 12th, 2010 at 7:14 am
Hello Don
Could you give me the seasonality for XLB and if possible the TA for Nucor(NUE)? Thanks.
January 12th, 2010 at 8:09 am
Hi Don. What are your thoughts on Biovail? Fundamentals seem decent, but looks like it has some good resistance around $16. What’s the seasonality of biotech? Thanks.
January 12th, 2010 at 8:54 am
Don: In your comments at the top of this article you state under the Energy sector “crude oil and natural gas prices are trading lower”. Where do you access info that we the public can access for futre trading on commodities like Natural Gas or Oil. In other words before the market opens how do you know they are trading lower? Thanks
January 12th, 2010 at 9:10 am
G’Morning Don,
Could you please indicate whether KO, PEP, PG, JNJ fall into consumer staples sector? If so, what is the period of seasonality for those names and the sector? What do you see as a good entry point into PG and KO especially. Please n Thanks!
Joe
January 12th, 2010 at 12:33 pm
Michael, fyi I’ve followed BVF for a long time. My target price is $17USD.
http://www.kaching.com/research/4135
January 12th, 2010 at 1:02 pm
daddyO, fyi one place to look at futures prices is Bloomberg.
Commodity futures:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/commodities/cfutures.html
Index futures:
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html
January 12th, 2010 at 5:32 pm
Trevor: Bloomberg works for what I am after. Appreciate your contribution…..
January 12th, 2010 at 10:22 pm
Hi Don,
I wonder what is the seasonality for coal? and I would appreciate your thought on GCE-T.
Thanks
Reza