Comments on: Tech Talk for Monday January 25th 2010

By: Steve

Steve — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 07:14:22 +0000

Dear Don,

I was interested in what you thought about stock to bond ratios and charting them. I was hoping to chart the S&P 500 index over the 10 Year US Treasury Note Price over a long period of time like 20 years. I have been able to chart a couple years of data on StockCharts.com but have been much more interested in using 20 years worth of data. I have been able to find historical prices on T-bill yields but nothing on the actual prices of T-bills themselves. From the chart I have made it appears the stock/bond ratio is strongly correlated with S&P 500 chart maybe I am wasting my time.

The whole point of this is I am trying to build upon your HAC fund strategy for a project in school and thought using a tactical asset allocation approach outside of your seasonal investing though sector rotation strategy would help my lower risk and possible enhance returns since you can earn capital gains on bonds as well.

Is the stock to bond ratio a good indicator to help decide whether we should overweight equities or debt?

Steve

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 16:44:00 +0000

Hi Richard. XSP is the hedged version of iShares on the S&P 500 Index (Symbol: IVV).

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 16:40:56 +0000

Hi DaddyO. Natural gas has entered into the January to July period when annual recurring events influencing its price are random. Accordingly, no predictions are offered.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 16:37:12 +0000

Hi Rick. The only direct way to play gasoline is through the futures market. Refining stocks are not recommended despite the bullish seasonal scenario for gasoline because the industry is struggling to turn a profit under a difficult political environment. The column on gasoline is the first of a series of articles on the energy sector. However, timing to enter the energy sector for a seasonal trade this year is early. Stay tuned for addtional reports when timing appears more appropriate.

By: George

George — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 13:59:59 +0000

Hi Joe…….I play HOD (Oil down) and HOU (Oil up), these ETFs are leveraged 2X
so you have to watch them close as the price of crude can move quickly.
I have been pleasantly surprised how close they have been following the traditional/ historic seasonal patterns ( as per Seasonal Charts ).

George

By: Joe

Joe — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 13:52:03 +0000

Hi Joe,

HOU for double bull NYMEX oil contracts and HOD for double bear NYMEX oil contracts.
Be careful of daily rebalancing!

Joe

By: Joe

Joe — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 05:59:18 +0000

Hello,

What is the best way to play pure crude oil through ETFs ?

Joe

By: Richard

Richard — Tue, 26 Jan 2010 05:17:41 +0000

Hi Don,

What is the difference between SPY and XSP.TO ? Is it just that XSP is hedged against USD ? Thank you again.

Richard

By: Richard

Richard — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 21:52:35 +0000

Don,

Can you please clarify Castlemoore’s statement on 22nd Jan, relative to Gold’s period of seasonality. “It appears that the corrective phase of the trend has run its course.” If the period of seasonality for Gold has just ended, do you agree with Castlemoore that Gold will once again be a decent play out of this correction we’re seeing ? Do they and you as well see an upside to $Gold, gold equities and ETFs?

Regards,
Richard

By: Tom Bencsics

Tom Bencsics — Mon, 25 Jan 2010 19:25:18 +0000

Good article on the seasonality of gasoline.
Are only USD ETF’s available?
Having difficulty location a Canadian ETF specializing in this sector.
Any suggestions?

Thanks for the informative data presented on your site.