Comments on: Tech Talk for Wednesday January 27th 2010

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 01:18:40 +0000

Hi Allan. HAC reached a new low today, not a good technical sign. On the other hand (from a completely biased point-of-view) Stochastics at 9.47% began recovering today (positive cross over of its moving averages) and are about to record a Stochastics buy signal on a move above 20%. Cheers!

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 01:13:54 +0000

Hi Debra. Seasonal studies on individual stocks within a sector is a new service that will be expanded over time and includes information on Canadian sectors (A study on the Canadian energy sector recently was completed and will be issued when more timely)

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 01:11:03 +0000

Interesting idea, Steve. Sorry, haven’t completed an equity/bond ratio study yet. Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide may be helpful. The book shows that total returns from long term U.S Treasuries have a period of strength from May to December. Equities have a period of seasonal strength from November to April.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 01:05:12 +0000

Hi Jeff. Brutal draw down during the past two weeks, down 15%. Momentum indicators for JJG are short term oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Support is indicated at $34.23. Better opportunities are available elsewhere (including opportunities in several sectors that shortly will enter their period of seasonal strength.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Thu, 28 Jan 2010 00:59:48 +0000

Hi Huy. Several technical indicators are used including Stochastics ( a move above 20%), RSI (a recovery from 30%), MACD (a narrowing of the moving average spread when the moving averages are below the 0 line), price (at least one day when trading moves above the previous day’s price range) and recent positive strength relative to a benchmark index such as the S&P 500 Index).

By: Allan

Allan — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 22:53:53 +0000

Don,
Noticed that HAC had a lower low and higher high compared to yesterday and todays close was higher than yesterdays high. According to your teachings this is a very Bullish event. Any comment?
Allan

By: Debora

Debora — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 22:35:42 +0000

Hi Don,

Thank-you for including the appropriate seasonal ETF’s with your analysis. I also really appreciated the inclusion of U.S. individual company names with their return/profit information. How did you find the individual company information? Is there a possibility of including Canadian companies as well?

I find your weekly/daily analysis is the fast track to increasing my skill level.I also purchased the Brooke Thackray book as a way of accessing more information on seasonal rotation and as a way to track how the current season is progressing. Thanks for all of your great work.

Debora

By: Steve

Steve — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 19:38:20 +0000

Hi Don:

I was interested in what your thoughts were about stock to bond ratios and charting them. I was hoping to chart the S&P 500 index over the 10 Year US Treasury Note Price over a long period of time like 20 years. I have been able to chart a couple years of data on StockCharts.com but have been much more interested in using 20 years worth of data. I have been able to find historical prices on T-bill yields but nothing on the actual prices of T-bills themselves. From the chart I have made it appears the stock/bond ratio is strongly correlated with S&P 500 chart maybe I am wasting my time.

The whole point of this is I am trying to build upon your HAC fund strategy for a project in school and thought using a tactical asset allocation approach outside of your seasonal investing though sector rotation strategy would help my lower risk and possible enhance returns since you can earn capital gains on bonds as well.

Is the stock to bond ratio a good indicator to help decide whether we should overweight equities or debt?

Steve

By: ftse

ftse — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 17:16:20 +0000

Hi Don:

Can you pls comment on the seasonality of small cap stocks with a highlight on those listed in the venture exchange. Is the market correction going on right now lying up for a good entry point?

By: Jeff

Jeff — Wed, 27 Jan 2010 17:05:22 +0000

Hi Don
I know agriculture is not in seasonality now. I am looking at JJG-N, as it is getting close to it’s low over the past year. Any advice on JJG-N would be greatly appreciated.
Thanks
Jeff