Comments on: Tech Talk for Friday February 5th 2010

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 18:23:05 +0000

Hi Marc. End of month positions in HAC as well as other managed funds are reported publicly once a month on the Horizons AlphaPro site(Usually in the second week after the end of the month). Brooke Thackray reviews changes in the fund in his monthly newsletter (expected to be released this week). Best to subscribe to his newsletter. The price is right: it’s free. In addition to public releases, Tech Talk discusses timing of seasonal trades on a daily basis that provide clues to activity in the fund and Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide gives specific buy and sell dates that provide additional clues. Discussing actual trades in the fund before or just after their transaction and prior to their public release is illegal. Tech Talk avoids coming close to that line.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 18:08:00 +0000

Hi Richard. According to Thackray’s seasonality study on silver (based on data from 1984 to 2008, Silver moves higher until the beginning of May. When available, Thackray’s seasonality studies are preferred over SeasonalCharts.com studies because they are more up to date.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 18:02:53 +0000

Hi David. Seasonality in the U.S. Dollar Index is posted on page 139 in Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Gulde. Generally, it moves higher from January to April, flat from April to September and down from September to December (based on data from 1973).

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 17:59:04 +0000

Hi Rene. The period of seasonal strength in the Canadian energy sector (and its related ETFs)starts on February 25th and continues to May 9th. Brooke Thackray recently completed an updated study on the sector, but Tech Talk has been sitting on it until timing technically and seasonally becomes more opportune. Please be patient.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 17:54:13 +0000

Hi Daryl. A comment on Silver is offered in tomorrow’s Tech Talk. Technicals are not there yet for a seasonal trade.

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 17:52:59 +0000

Hi Joe. IWM (iShares on the Russell 2000 Index) continues to outperform the S&P 500 Index (just barely). More information is offered in tomorrow’s Tech Talk. XSU is an interesting alternative to IWM. Essentially, it is IWM with a hedge against U.S. currency risk. A word of caution! Liquidity is somewhat suspect if dealing with say 10,000 shares or more. Market orders for size occassionally have “blown out” the bid and offer. The market makers are there if prudent (read: price limit)orders are placed for sizeable trades

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 17:45:40 +0000

Hi Larry. Just confirming that natural gas has passed its period of seasonal strength. During a period of seasonal strength, a security has a series of annual recurring events that trigger a favourable influence. Beyond the period of seasonal strength, annual recurring events are not sufficient to have an influence one way or the other. Accordingly, performance of the security is random (some times up, some times down). Tech Talk currently currently does not have an opinion on natural gas based on seasonality.

By: marc

marc — Sun, 07 Feb 2010 14:31:45 +0000

Hi Don,
At what point do the holdings in portfolios usually get updated? Quarterly? as an example – HAC is showing portfolio holdings as of dec 31st and we’re in feb. Same with Sprott Asset Management. I guess my question would be is this standard to wait to post holdings?
Thanks,
Marc

By: P. Ali

P. Ali — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 22:25:27 +0000

Mr. Vialoux. I saw you on BNN the other night and simply loved your approach to investing and looking at seasonal trends. As an active investor, the information you presented is greatly appreciated by small investors like myself. Thanks very much.

P. Ali

By: David

David — Sat, 06 Feb 2010 10:21:19 +0000

I have met Don Vailoux.
I speak in favour of his generosity and work ethic.
I certainly do not speak for him.