ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Monday February 8th
U.S. equity index futures are slightly higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 2 points in pre-opening trade. Slight weakness in the U.S. Dollar contributed to strength. Commodities sensitive to weakness in the U.S. Dollar including copper, gold, silver and crude oil traded slightly higher.
Evidence of an economic recovery in Canada continues to surface. Canadian housing starts rose 5.8% to 186,300 units in January. Consensus was a gain of 180,000.
U.S. analysts are becoming more bullish on Canadian energy stocks. This morning Morgan Stanley raised its rating on Canadian Natural Resources from Equal Weight to Overweight.
Credit Suisse upgraded another base metal stock this morning. Southern Copper was upgraded from Underperform to Outperform. Target price was increased from $31.50 to $34.
Morgan Stanley upgraded Home Depot from Equal Weight to Overweight. Home Depot added 2% in overnight trade.
UBS upgraded Harry Winston Diamond from Neutral to Buy.
Hasbro added 9% after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings.
CVS Caremark added 3% after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings.
CIT Group added 4% after announcing that John Thain will become chief executive officer of the company.
Economic News This Week
January Retail Sales are a focus this week.
December Trade Balance to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Wednesday is expected to improve to a deficit of $35.0 billion from a deficit of $36.4 billion in November.
January Retail Sales to be released on Thursday at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase 0.4% versus a 0.3% decline in December. January Retail Sales ex autos is expected to increase 0.4% versus a decline of 0.2% in December.
The February Michigan Sentiment Index is expected to improve to 74.8 from 74.4 in January.
Earnings News This Week
Reports from Canadian companies roll in this week in volume.
Monday sees ARC Energy Trust, Electronic Arts and Toromont.
Tuesday sees Agrium, BJ Services, Cameron International, Coca Cola, Disney, Inmet Mining and Pulte Homes.
Wednesday sees CAE, Canfor, Talisman and TMX Group.
Thursday sees Canadian Tire, Encana, Great West Lifeco, ManuLife, Pepsico and SunLife.
Friday sees Precision Drilling.
Equity Index Trends
The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. the Up/Down ratio) plunged again last week from 2.91 to (239/137=) 1.96. The ratio moved significantly lower for the fourth consecutive week. Despite its downtrend, the ratio remains intermediate overbought.
Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks fell last week from 73.20% to 64.60% and remains below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and has established an intermediate downtrend. .
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Up/Down ratio for TSX Composite stocks fell last week from 76.24% to 73.76% and remains below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The S&P 500 Index slipped 7.68 points (0.72%) last week and 7.33% from its peak on January 14th. Intermediate trend remains up (despite breaking below its intermediate uptrend line). The Index tested and held above support at 1,029.38 and its 200 day moving average at 1,018.85 on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Stochastics are showing early signs of bottoming. Seasonal influences remain positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average fell from 27.00% to 21.20% last week. Percent has declined to a level where a bottom frequently occurs, but it has yet to show signs of bottoming.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average eased last week from 82.80% to 79.40%. Percent remains intermediate overbought and continues to trend lower.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up 55.10 points (0.55%) last week. It is down 6.69% from its peak.Intermediate trend remains up (despite breaking below its intermediate uptrend line). The Average tested and held support at 9,679 on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Stochastics are showing early signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has changed from negative to neutral. Seasonal influences remain positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks slipped last week from 83.33% to 80.00% and remains below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and appear poised to establish an intermediate downtrend.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks slipped last week from 61.04% to 57.42%. The Index remains intermediate overbought and has established an intermediate downtrend.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The NASDAQ Composite Index eased 6.23 points (0.29%) last week. The Index has declined 7.94% from its peak. Intermediate trend remains up (despite moving below its intermediate uptrend line). Downside risk is to support at 2,024.27 and its 200 day moving average at 2,020.61. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Stochastics already are showing early signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Russell 2000 Index fell 9.06 points (1.50%) last week. The Index is down 8.65% from its peak. Intermediate trend remains up. Downside risk is to support at 553.31 and its 200 day moving average at 566.83. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Stochastics already are showing signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 is positive, but is showing early signs of turning negative. Seasonal influences are positive until March 7th.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Dow Jones Transportation Average gave up another 73.33 points (1.88%) last week. The Average has lost 10.4% from its peak. Intermediate trend remains up. Downside risk is to its 200 day moving average at 3,683.59 and support at 3,546.48. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Stochastics already are showing signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The TSX Composite Index added 128.81 points (1.16%) last week. The Index is down 7.02% from its peak. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index bounced from near its 200 day moving average at 10,915.86 on Friday. Downside risk is to support at 10,745.25. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Stochastics already are showing technical signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index appears to be changing from negative to at least neutral. Seasonal influences remain positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above their 50 day moving average was unchanged last week at 38.12%. Historically, Percent has needed to decline to near the 20% level before bottoming.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week from 74.75% to 75.24%. Percent remains intermediate overbought and is trending lower.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Australia All Ordinaries Index dropped another 64.40 points (1.40%) last week. The Index is down 9.55% from its peak. On Friday, the Index broke support at 4,515.30. Intermediate trend changed from up to neutral. Downside risk is to its 200 day moving average at 4,401.88. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. RSI and Stochastics are showing early technical signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains undetermined. Seasonal influences remain positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Nikkei Average fell another 140.95 points last week. The Index is down 8.42% from its peak. Intermediate trend remains up. The Average fell below its 50 day moving average last week and is testing its 200 day moving average at 9,937.63. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Stochastics already are showing signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Seasonal influences remain positive.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Shanghai Composite Index fell another 49.89 points (1.67%) last week. Downside risk is to support at 2,639.75. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. RSI and Stochastics already are showing early signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is turning negative.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The London FT Index dropped another 84.82 points (2.46%), the Frankfurt DAX Index fell another 174.45 points (3.11%) and the Paris CAC Index plunged 175.70 points (4.70%) last week. Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com
Currencies
The U.S. Dollar Index dominated trading activity in equity and currency markets last week. It gained another 0.89 and broke above resistance at 79.51. It now is approaching resistance at 81.47. Seasonal influences are positive until March. Short term momentum indicators are substantially overbought with RSI above 70% and Stochastics above 80%. However, short term momentum indicators continue to trend higher. Technical action in currencies in late trading on Friday (weak U.S. Dollar, strong Euro) suggests that monetary authorities may be stepping in to support the Euro that could trigger a short term peak in the U.S. Dollar. G7 Finance Ministers met over the weekend. The market will let us know soon whether central banks have decided to support the Euro. The 8.7% increase in the U.S. Dollar Index during the past 10 weeks is unusual and is setting the stage for at least a short term set back.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Euro fell another 1.84 last week on concerns about credit defaults by the PIGS (Portugal, Ireland, Greece, Spain). Efforts by the European Central Bank on Thursday to reduce concerns about a default by Greece were met by credit and equity markets with derision. However, the European Central Bank has considerable clout in currency markets. A glimpse of that clout probably was shown in late trading on Friday. The Euro broke a key support level at 137.57 in early trading on Friday, but quickly recovered in late trading. Short term momentum indicators are substantially oversold with RSI below 30% and Stochastics below 20%, but indicators have yet to show signs of bottoming.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Canadian Dollar was on a roller coaster ride last week, but was virtually unchanged (down 0.04) despite strength in the U.S. Dollar Index and weakness in commodity prices. An encouraging employment report on Friday helped. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Technicals suggest that the four month trading range between 92.16 and 97.79 will continue. Additional support is provided by its 200 day moving average currently at 91.86.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Commodities
The CRB Index fell another 2.59% last week primarily due to strength in the U.S. Dollar. It broke below its 200 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are substantially oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Crude oil lost another $1.01 U.S. per barrel last week. On Friday, it broke support at $69.81 and its 200 day moving average at $70.89, but recovered strongly to above those levels in late trading. Short term momentum indicators are substantially oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Seasonal influences turn positive in late February.
Conversely, unleaded gasoline prices added $0.02 per gallon last week and held nicely above support at $1.82.They bounced nicely from their 200 day moving average. Resistance is indicated at $2.20. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Stochastics already are recovering from an oversold level.
The stage is set for a significant seasonal recovery from mid February to the end of May. The recovery is unlikely to match the magnitude of the gain recorded last year, but will be sufficient to attract the attention of the public and politicians. Gasoline already is outperforming crude oil prices.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
A major reason for the recovery in gasoline prices this year is a lack of profitability in the oil refining and marketing sector. Last week, Exxon Mobil announced a fourth quarter loss of over $300 million by its refining and marketing division and Suncor announced a substantial reduction in profits. Crack spreads (i.e. the price spread between crude oil and refined product prices) remain narrow and are just starting to widen. They need to widen significantly from current levels before the refiners can realize a reasonable profit. Without a widening in crack spreads, gasoline inventories will decline more than usual at this time of year.
Chart courtesy of SeasonalCharts.com www.seasonalcharts.com
Natural gas posted a modest gain last week thanks to colder than average weather in U.S. Midwest and East Coast markets. Its period of seasonal strength ended this year in the fourth week in December. Short term momentum indicators continue to trend lower.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The S&P Energy Index remained under pressure last week. The Index fell below its 200 day moving average on Friday. Next support is at 391.54. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Stochastics and RSI are trying to bottom. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative implying that the period of seasonal strength in the sector from February 25th to May 9th has yet to surface. Please be patient!
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Ditto for the TSX Energy Index! On Friday, the Index briefly broke support at 273.30 and its 200 day moving average at 276.00, but subsequently rallied strongly into the close. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Stochastics and RSI are showing early signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the TSX Composite Index remains negative. The seasonal entry point from February 25th to May 9th is approaching, but needs more technical evidence to confirm.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Gold lost another $9.30 last week mainly in response to strength in the U.S. Dollar. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but continue to trend lower. Ultimate support is at its 200 day moving average currently at $1,018.06.
Charts courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Silver broke below support and its 200 day moving average.
Platinum remains the precious metal of choice. ‘Tis the season for Platinum to move higher! Strength relative to gold remains positive. Once again, its 50 day moving average proved to be a reliable support level. Support is at $1,385.40. Resistance is at $1,647.70. Short term momentum indicators currently are mixed. A second entry point during its period of seasonal strength historically from January 1st to May 31st is possible. The first entry point occurred on December 24th. Stay tuned for possible future action!
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Copper continues to struggle on the charts, down another 17.5 cents per lb. last week. Support is at $2.64 per lb and at its 200 day moving average at $2.7489. Short term momentum indicators are substantially oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Grain prices are showing early technical signs of bottoming near long term support. JJG added $0.12 last week. Short term momentum indicators are bottoming.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The star performer last week was lumber, up another 9.1% last week. ‘Tis the season! Demand for the spring construction season is strong this year thanks to a ramp up in infrastructure spending under the U.S. economic stimulation program.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Financials
The yield on long term U.S Treasuries slipped 0.04% last week. Yield remains in an eight month trendless range between 3.20% and 3.98%. Short term momentum indicators are neutral.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
On Friday, the S&P Financial Services Index briefly broke below support at 185.53 and its 200 day moving average at 183.50, but quickly recovered in late trading.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The TSX Financial Services Index held just above support at 163.00 and its 200 day moving average at 164.89 on Friday. It closed at a slight gain for the week. It remains in a seven month range between 163.00 and 181.93.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Other Factors
The VIX Index (better known as the Fear Index) spiked to over 29% in early trading on Friday, but closed sharply lower on weakness in the U.S. Dollar.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
The Baltic Dry Index had another rough week, down 4.7%. Not a good sign for international trade!
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Fourth quarter earnings on both sides of the border continue to exceed expectations. As of Friday, over 340 S&P 500 companies had reported. Eighty percent reported higher than consensus earnings and 70% reported higher than consensus revenues. Most came under selling pressures shortly after reporting fourth quarter results. Look for more of the same this week when major Canadian companies report.
Evidence of a surge in U.S. economic activity this spring has surfaced. Funds from the Economic Stimulus Program finally are trickling down to infrastructure programs that will be “shovel ready” this spring. Following is a headline from the FP Trading Desk that explains the reason for strength in lumber prices.
Economic news this week is expected to be friendly for equity markets. Retail sales are expected to have recovered in January from a dismal, weather-related December. The trade deficit is expected to narrow slightly.
Currencies are a big focus this week. Was the late recovery in equity markets and the Euro on Friday triggered by a reversal of an over-extended market or was it “fixed” by monetary authorities. The former scenario is positive for equity markets. The latter scenario is not.
The Bottom Line
The “hoped for” short term correction has arrived. The correction is setting up seasonal trades in several sectors including silver, mines & metals, basic materials, oil services and energy. Early technical signs for entry into these sectors appeared last week, but more evidence is needed. Please be patient.
Tech Talk’s Weekly Column in the Financial Post
(Published in the National Post on Saturday. Available at www.nationalpost.com )
The U.S. Oil Services Sector
The U.S. Oil Services sector has a period of seasonal strength from February to mid May. Will the sector move higher again this year?
Seasonal Influences
According to a recent seasonality study by Brooke Thackray, the U.S. oil services sector has a period of seasonal strength from January 31st to May 9th. The trade has been profitable in 17 of the past 20 periods. Average return per period was 14.2 percent. Return from the sector during its period of seasonal strength exceeded return from the S&P 500 Index by 11.0 percent.
Seasonality is influenced by rising crude oil and refined product prices during the February to May period as well as an increase in the demand for rigs during the winter drilling season. Following is a chart showing seasonality in the U.S. Oil Equipment and Services Index during the past 20 years.
Chart courtesy of Brooke Thackray
Technical Influences
Oil Services HOLDRs currently have a mixed to mildly positive intermediate technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The Exchange Traded Fund moved below its 50 day moving average this week, but remains above its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Support is indicated at $110.43 and its 200 day moving average at $110.82. Resistance is indicated at $134.45. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the first week in December.
Fundamental influences
Fourth quarter earnings reports released to date by companies in the sector have recorded significant earnings declines, but have beat consensus estimates. Schlumberger and Halliburton quickly came under profit taking pressures following release of results.
Prospects for 2010 are encouraging. Year-over-year earnings comparisons are expected to turn positive in the third quarter. Gains will come from a ramp up of horizontal drilling in gas prone shale areas, drilling and development offshore Brazil and expansion of Middle East capacity. Notable will be an increase in development in Iraq.
The Bottom Line
The seasonal trade in the Oil Equipment and Services sector is lining up nicely this year. A technical entry point has yet to arrive, but is expected to occur shortly. Oil Services HOLDRs is the most actively traded Exchange Traded Fund in the sector. Other liquid ETFs in the sector include Dynamic Oil and Gas Services (PXJ) and Oil and Gas Equipment and Services SPDRs (XES).
Ken Norquay’s Column
Toronto Real Estate: “Déjà vu all over again.”
Baseball’s legendary Yogi Berra is credited with our headline’s déjà vu quotation. It means: “We’ve seen this before.”
The real estate industry released some great numbers this week. Home sales have increased by 87% over last January’s depressed levels and prices have gone up by 15% to 20%. For homeowners and real estate speculators, this is welcome news. Or is it? Is there more to this story than the collective sigh of relief of two thousand real estate agents? Let’s look more closely.
What’s happened so far?
- Many investors are fed up with the stock market after the 2008-09 crash when market averages dropped 50% in only nine months. Many fed up investors turned to real estate for something more wholesome, less risky.
- The stock market crash was followed by a world banking crisis, a crisis in corporate America and the continuation of the US junk mortgage crisis. These crises triggered a massive drop in interest rates, including mortgage rates.
- These two factors combined to give us the flurry of real estate activity that was reported this week. Volume of sales is up and prices are up.
Has this ever happened before? Remember the late 1980s?
- After the 1987 stock market crash, many investors became fed up with the stock market. They turned to real estate for something more stable, less risky.
- The 1987 crash was followed by a US ‘Savings and Loan’ crisis. [In the USA they refer to trust companies as ‘savings and loan’ companies.] And that crisis was followed by a junk bond crisis. Those crises triggered a huge drop in interest rates, including mortgage rates.
- These two factors caused an increase in both volume of sales and house prices.
- In late 1988 early 1989, there was an up-tick in interest rates, including mortgage rates. This triggered a rush to buy houses – that rush to buy resulted in an even greater flurry of sales and house price increases.
- In April 1989 a hush settled over the real estate industry. The top of the cycle was in.
- House prises dropped and did not start up again until 1996. The world’s biggest real estate company, the Reichmann brothers’ Olympia and York, went broke. Construction was stopped on the monolithic office tower between Bay and Yonge Streets in Toronto [just south of The Bay]: the unfinished building stood there for years. The game was over. It took seven years for the real estate down trend to stabilize.
The Warning Signs.
IF mortgage rates tick up ever so slightly AND this triggers a flood of buying – beware. The real estate market will be in the same condition it was in 1989: a long term top.
Warning #2
Our American cousins are already well into the downward part of their real estate cycle. Both their housing and commercial real estate are in trouble. Remember Pierre Elliott Trudeau’s famous words: “When America sneezes, Canada catches a cold.”
Prudent Action
What should a real estate owner do in the face of all this? Here are some thoughts:
- Homeowners: don’t do anything. Just keep living in the home you love. If you are thinking of selling your small house and buying a big one because you need more space, do it. But if you are thinking of buying a bigger home to increase your overall investment exposure to real estate, put off your decision until things stabilize. And if you are thinking of selling your large house and buying a smaller one, do it sooner rather than later.
- Investors in houses: those who buy residential real estate and rent it out. Sell your rental properties when mortgage interest ticks up. You could be selling at the top. And, as the house prices drop, you will be in the perfect position to buy future distress sales.
- Commercial and industrial. How did you feel when the recession was ON in 2008 and 2009? How did you feel when your tenants were laying off employees and subleasing their space? Imagine how real estate investors feel in the auto manufacturing towns of southern Ontario. Or the oil patch in western Canada. Consider selling your marginal properties and reducing the debt on your higher quality properties. Read more about the pickle our American cousins are in. Re-read the story of what happened to the Olympia and York’s $14 billion real estate empire in the early 1990s. This is not a time for complacency. Try to stay positive: if trouble develops, you want to be the strong one when the others are weak. In order to buy at the bottom of the cycle, you have to sell at the top.
In my book, Beyond the Bull, I discuss the correct attitude for stock market investors to take in a long term bear market. This is the same attitude that real estate investors should have now: the attitude of a fighter. It’s like the Kenny Rogers song: “You got to know when to hold, know when to fold ’em. Know when to walk away, know when to run.” There is a strong possibility that real estate investing is coming into a time like 1989 to 1996 – the down part of the cycle. It’s time to fold ‘em and walk away. The down part of the cycle brings opportunity for those in a strong financial position. Having more cash and/or less debt is strength.
Ken Norquay, CMT
President,
Market Street Investment House
416-253-4629
Here are the links to Beyond the Bull on the three major Amazon sites:
Canada
http://www.amazon.ca/Beyond-Bull-Taking-Market-Wisdom/dp/0980923182/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1228246016&sr=8-1
US
http://www.amazon.com/Beyond-Bull-Taking-Market-Wisdom/dp/0980923182/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1228246055&sr=8-1
UK
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Beyond-Bull-Taking-Market-Wisdom/dp/0980923182/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1228245979&sr=8-1
Canadian Strategic Investment Show
Mr. Vialoux is presenting at the Canadian Strategic Investment Show at the Royal York Hotel in Toronto on February 13th and 14th. Following is a link offering information on the show:
http://theinvestmentshow.ca/csishowtoronto/
Tom Rogers’ Elliott Wave Blog
Tom sees continuation of the short term downtrend. Following is a link to his blog:
http://www.tomrogers.net/signpost.htm
Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide
Tech Talk frequently mentions Brooke Thackray and his book entitled, “Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide”. The book summarizes attractive seasonal trades that are available during the year. The book can be purchased directly at Amazon.ca and Amazon.com. Following are links to these book stores:
Seasonal trades in the book that currently are active include Consumer Discretionary, Small Cap, Platinum, U.S. Materials, U.S. Retail, U.S. Oil Exploration & Production and Metals & Mining.
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don Vialoux is a research analyst for JovInvestment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the author and are not necessarily the views of JovInvestment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by JovInvestment Management Inc
HAP Seasonal Rotation E.T.F. | HAC-T $9.73 February 5 2010
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Open |
9.660 |
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High |
9.730 |
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Low |
9.440 |
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Bid x- |
9.660 |
- |
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Ask x- |
9.740 |
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Volume |
14,475 |
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52-wk High 01/18 |
10.650 |
- |
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52-wk Low 02/05 |
9.440 |
- |
Net Asset Value Per Unit: $9.69
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Discussions from the Tech Talk Forum:
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February 8th, 2010 at 4:42 am
Hi Don:
I know you cannot talk about specific trades in HAC before they happen, but will your ETF be capitalizing on the potential seasonal trade in silver, mines & metals, basic materials, oil services and energy that you outlined above? If so I will buy HAC.
February 8th, 2010 at 6:28 am
Ken’s post on Toronto’s real estate was enlightening.
The sharp drop in silver, pld, and non-gold is quite substantial.
This also correlates to Taleb in this interview (select Eng for english): http://2010.therussiaforum.com/news/session-video3/
February 8th, 2010 at 7:18 am
Don,
Is the period of strength in the oil sector not split into two parts? Exploration & Production until the middle of April and then the Equipment and Services until the middle of May?
February 8th, 2010 at 7:35 am
I noticed that you are no longer drawing your trend lines for the major U.S. stock indexes from their March 9, 2009 lows. The trend lines are now drawn from higher points and a few day later in March.
Please explain why.
Thanks for a great service.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:39 am
Don,
Could you tell me the seasonal strength in the airline sector please? I looked into Thackray’s 2009 book and previous Tech Talk, one in October and one in the summer, it was not very clear. I am little bit confused.
Thank you for your time,
February 8th, 2010 at 8:40 am
Hi Don:
You wrote: “The S&P 500 Index slipped 7.68 points (0.72%) last week and 7.33% from its peak on January 14th. Intermediate trend remains up (despite breaking below its intermediate uptrend line).”
What has to occur for the intermediate up trend to be broken?
Regards,
jordy
February 8th, 2010 at 9:29 am
Don:
Fabulous commentary & advice.
Could you please comment on uranium and Paladin Energy (PDN.TO)
thanks very much
Joey
February 8th, 2010 at 10:42 am
Don,
Noticed an incorrect statement on the above Euro currency chart and the reference to PIGS and Ireland? Isn’t the I a reference for Italy?
Great site. When you “get” the information offered, it opens the door to so many opportunities (buying stock, ETF’s, options, etc.) and limits the risk involved in investing.
Thanks kindly, Don (and Brooke Thackery) for all your work.
Mark
February 8th, 2010 at 10:51 am
Don,
Is there any sesonality in uranium and/or uranium stocks?
If there is no specific work done on that, what would be your best guess if it would fit more with energy, or base metals or something like coal?
Thank you for sharing any thoughts on this subject.
IM
February 8th, 2010 at 11:01 am
Correct me if I am wrong,
Hi IM,
for uranium Cameco-end of Oct to end of may, sweet spot is from end of Jan. to end of May.
Phil
February 8th, 2010 at 12:07 pm
An interesting commentary appearing in Bloomberg this morning:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aPkRyJG9weGQ
February 8th, 2010 at 1:58 pm
Don,
With regard to the comment on the strength of $RUT relative to SP500 showing early signs of turning negative. Does this mean that its too late or not advisable at this point, to enter a seasonal trade for IWM or XSU.to till March 7th ?
Regards,
Joe
February 8th, 2010 at 2:10 pm
Hi Don,
Is there a seasonality to global and/or north american commodities in general and is there a US ETF and also a Canadian ETF (hedged) to play commodities in general ? I did do a bit of reasearch on my part and found a few Powershares ETFs but seek your direction/advice. Thanks!
Joe
February 8th, 2010 at 7:16 pm
Hi Ken. For background on the Oil Services trade, please see Tech Talk on January 27th. Both the U.S. Oil Exploration & Production sector and the U.S. Oil Service sector have a period of seasonal strength from January 30th to April 14th with Exploration & Production outperforming Oil Services during that period. The period of seasonal strength in Oil Services extends beyond April 14th to May 17th.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:20 pm
Hi Novice Investors. The trend lines are still there. Just didn’t include all of them this time.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:27 pm
Hi Phil. Sorry, Brooke and I have not completed a seasonal study on this sector recently. Brooke’s 2009 Investor’s Guide noted that the airlines are top performers among subsectors in March and October. However, two featured months during the year is not sufficient to establish a seasonal trend. Seasonal trends normally last 2-7 months.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:32 pm
Hi Jordy. Trends are determined by support and resistance levels. A break by the S&P 500 Index below 1,029.38 will change trend from up to neutral. A break below 869.32 will change trend from neutral to down.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:41 pm
Hi Joe. Just confirming that the seasonal entry points in IWM and XSU were triggered early in December. A second seasonal entry point has not been triggered.
February 8th, 2010 at 7:45 pm
Hi Joe. No specific ETF available for all Commodities in Canadian Dollars yet. Lots of product coming down the pipe. Tomorrow’s Tech Talk provides a list of new U.S. commodity ETFs scheduled to be launched shortly.