Pre-opening Comments for Thursday March 4^th

U.S. equity index futures are slightly higher this morning. S&P 500 futures added 1 point in pre-opening trade. Index futures improved following released of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Weekly jobless claims slipped 29,000 to 469,000. Revised fourth quarter Productivity increased from 6.2% to 6.9%.

Overnight lending rates by central banks over the pond were unchanged. Bank of England maintained its 0.5% rate. The European Central Bank maintained its 1.0% rate.

Canadian investors are waiting for the Federal Government’s budget to be announced after the close today. The Canadian Dollar rose overnight in anticipation of a budget that focuses on cost cutting. The Canadian Dollar is testing the top of its six month trading range.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com

Toronto Dominion Bank announced higher than expected first quarter earnings. Consensus was $1.35 versus $1.34 per share last year. Actual was $1.60 per share.

Disney added 1% after Bank of America/Merrill raised its rating from Neutral to Buy. Target was raised from $33 to $42. Disney is poised to move above resistance at $32.75 to reach a 17 month high.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com

Coca Cola added 1% after UBS upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. Target price is $62.

Wal-Mart added 1% after raising its annual dividend from $1.09 to $1.21 per share.

More good news from the Canadian energy sector! Canadian Natural Gas raised its dividend by 42%.

The technical outlook for North American oil service stocks continues to improve. See favourable technical and seasonal comments on Nabors and Trican Well Services at www.equityclock.com

Technical Action Yesterday

Technical action by S&P 500 stocks remains bullish. Six S&P 500 stocks broke resistance (FMC Technologies, International Flavors and Fragrances, Parker Hannifin, Rowan Companies, Torchmark and XL Capital) and two stocks broke support (Staples and Pfizer). The Up/Down ratio was unchanged at (289/126=) 2.29.

Technical action by TSX Composite stocks also remains bullish. Four TSX stocks broke resistance (CCL Industries, FNX Mining, Boardwalk Equities and Sherritt) and one stock broke support (Davis & Henderson). The Up/Down ratio was unchanged at (125/54=) 2.31.

Interesting Charts

Canadian Mines & Metal stocks were a feature yesterday among stocks breaking above key resistance levels. Sherritt and FNX Mining broke resistance levels on higher than average volume. FNX also is showing positive on-balance volume implying that the stock is being accumulated by institutional investors.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com

The TSX Metals & Mining Index has an improving technical profile. It recently moved above its 50 day moving average and appears poised to test resistance at 1,168.83.

‘Tis the season for the sector to move higher into May!

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com

Seasonal influences for copper are positive until mid May. Following is a 20 year seasonality chart recently developed by www.EquityClock.com

Copper Futures (HG) Seasonal Chart

Chart courtesy of www.equityclock.com

Metals and Mining stocks are influenced by weakness in the U.S. Dollar. Intermediate downside risk for the U.S. Dollar is the top of its previous trading range at 78.45.

Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com

FP Trading Desk Headline

An FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Top Copper Stocks”. Following is link to the report:

http://network.nationalpost.com/NP/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2010/03/03/top-copper-stocks.aspx

THE CASTLEMOORE INVESTMENT COMMENTARY

First off, we wish to wish the entire Canadian contingent at the Vancouver Olympics for a collective “job well done”, with perhaps a modicum of additional gratitude to the Men’s hockey team for allowing us to save face for another four years, and almost makes us forget that the two last place teams in the NHL are Canadian-based. Things looked bleak after the loss to the U.S., but, as we fond of saying in our business, okay—we HAVE to say it—“past performance not necessarily indicative of future results.”

And there is no truth, so far as we can tell, that a certain unidentified Canadian athlete was so excited to won the gold medal that he went out and had it bronzed.

Seriously, there may be times when it would be preferable to hold bronze (which is composed mainly of copper) than gold. In other words, copper often makes cents—uh, sense, particularly when the economy is expanding, and consumer confidence is high. Copper prices generally serve as a proxy for the state of the economy. Gold prices, other hand, generally reflect uncertainty, particularly at times when the economic value of the world’s currency, i.e. the US dollar, is considered vulnerable. Gold is also viewed as an inflation hedge (an deflation one too – more this down the road), which is really a reiteration of the falling US dollar scenario; a lower dollar makes imports more expensive and reduces price pressure on domestically produced goods and services.

Copper, like the economy, will soon have to show something here, that its for real

..gold on the other hand appears to be in an intermediate term bull cycle.

At CastleMoore we aren’t yet ready to buy into the inflation scenario as the data is saying the opposite still. We nevertheless need to acknowledge the arguments that favour it, thus giving us the agility to act with dispatch should we ever be forced to alter our thinking. . The main exogenous (external) cause of inflation would be that, given the record high debt levels in the U.S., foreigners start selling their holding of U.S. Treasuries thereby putting pressure on the $US (a widening the TED spread, which the basis point differential between US dollars held in the US and those held outside the US, is useful is gauging the restlessness of foreigners. More on the TED spread in a future commentary). The main endogenous potential cause for inflation would come from an increase in the US Federal Reserve target inflation rate from 2% to something closer to 4%, thereby “inflating” down the deficit The $64 dollar question would then be: how do your effectuate such a change in policy without creating a stampede away from the $US and away from Treasuries and into gold.

We have a position in Gold.

The influential U.S. based financial publisher, Forbes, last week presented a case why this century may well be the “Century of Canada.” It cites, among other this, Canada’s world class banking system, and riches in energy, commodities, and fresh water. You can view the slide show presentation at:

http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/personal-finance/article/forbes/1427/the-canadian-century

And lastly, thanks to all our webinar guests this past Monday for Presentation #2 of 3 in the series, Beyond Bullmanship. It was well attended with almost 100 participants for the East and West coast shows. A playback is available by signing up below. If you are already part of the CastleMoore Investor Centre simply send an e-mail in requesting a copy of it.

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If you like to receive bi-monthly newsletter, know more about our model portfolios or access an audio file of our investment philosophy, “Modern Financial Fiascos”, click on the link

http://www.castlemoore.com/investorcentre/signup.php.

WEBINARS/SEMINARS

If you would also be interested in participating in a CastleMoore online webinar please send an e-mail to info@castlemoore.com after registering above.

If you live in southern On area and would be interested in attending an upcoming CastleMoore seminar, send an email to info@castlemoore.com after registering above

CastleMoore Inc. uses a proprietary Risk/Reward Matrix that places clients within one of 12 discretionary portfolios based on risk tolerance, investment objectives, income, net worth and past investing experience. For more information on our discipline and methodology please contact us.

CastleMoore Inc.

Buy, Hold…and Know When to Sell

www.castlemoore.com

Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide

Tech Talk frequently mentions Brooke Thackray and his book entitled, “Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide”. The book summarizes attractive seasonal trades that are available during the year. The book can be purchased electronically or directly at Chapters, Amazon.ca, Barnes & Noble and Amazon.com. Following are links to most of these book stores:

http://www.chapters.indigo.ca/books/Thackrays-2010-Investors-Guide-Brooke-Thackray/9780978220037-item.html?ref=Search+Books:+%27thackray%27s%27
http://search.barnesandnoble.com/Thackrays-2010-Investors-Guide/Brooke-Thackray/e/9780978220037/?itm=1

Seasonal trades in the book that currently are active include Consumer Discretionary, Small Cap, Platinum, U.S. Materials, U.S. Retail, U.S. Oil Exploration & Production, U.S. Energy and Metals & Mining.

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don Vialoux is a research analyst for JovInvestment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the author and are not necessarily the views of JovInvestment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by JovInvestment Management Inc

HAP Seasonal Rotation E.T.F. HAC $10.38 March 3 2010

· High 10.40

· Low 10.38

· Bid 10.20×5 lots

· Ask 10.39×5 lots

· Volume 700

· Open 10.40

· Previous Close 10.38

· 52-week High 10.65 on Jan 18

· 52-week Low 9.44 on Feb 5

· Beta 2.37

· Net Asset Value per unit: $10.36

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More from the network: Stock Market Outlook for February 9, 2012 Stock Market Outlook for February 8, 2012 Stock Market Outlook for February 7, 2012 Stock Market Outlook for February 6, 2012 Next Report on Monday, February 6th

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