Pre-opening Comments for Wednesday March 10th
U.S. equity index futures are mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures are unchanged.
Crude oil added $0.13 per barrel after OPEC raised its forecast for crude oil demand in 2010 to 900,000 barrels per day. ‘Tis the season for crude oil prices to move higher. l Futures (CL) Seasonal Chart
Chart courtesy of www.equityclock.com
Allergan gained 2% after the company received FDA approval to market botox for additional health care purposes.
Chevron was downgraded Bank of America/Merrill from Buy to Neutral.
Pengrowth gained 1% after BMO Capital Markets upgraded the trust from Market Perform to Outperform
Intermune rose 15% after receiving an FDA panel approval of its lung disease drug.
Celestica was downgraded by Scotia Capital from Outperform to Sector Perform.
Brown Foreman is slightly higher after reporting better than consensus quarterly earnings.
Introducing the new Tech Talk
We have now become the Tech Talk Financial Network upon acquisition of http://EquityClock.com. The purpose of Equity Clock is to provide complementary data and analysis to that of Timing The Market. On EquityClock.com you’ll find technical, fundamental, and seasonal analysis of individual equities on the market. You can find seasonal studies and timelines, situational analysis, stock profiles, market sentiment and more.
You’ll find links to recent reports on the front page and in the daily reports under the heading “More from the Network”. Make it your source for up-to-date seasonal charts, daily analysis and market data, all for free.
We have also setup an initiative to share links with our audience. If you have a financial website and are interested in participating in a banner exchange with us, please visit http://TechTalkFN.com. It’s completely free and allows our audience to share in the traffic of the new Tech Talk Financial Network.
Enjoy!
Technical Action Yesterday
Technical action by S&P 500 stocks remained bullish yesterday. Eight S&P 500 stocks broke resistance (ADP, Citigroup, Coach, Compuware, Jacobs Engineering, Office Depot, Thermo Fisher and Yum Brands) and none broke support. The Up/Down ratio increased from 2.87 to (318/106=) 3.00.
Technical action by TSX Composite stocks also remained bullish. Seven TSX stocks broke resistance (Advantage Oil & Gas, AGF, CAE, Cominar REIT, Labrador Iron Ore Trust, Research in Motion and WestJet) and one stock broke support (Yamana Gold). The Up/Down ratio rose from 2.33 to (129/52=) 2.48.
Interesting Charts
Nice breakout by CAE to an 18 month high. ‘Tis the season for aerospace stocks to move higher! Current intermediate upside potential is to $10.75.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Selected Canadian energy stocks are breaking to new highs. ‘Tis the season for the sector to move higher!
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Another key U.S. equity index broke resistance yesterday. The Dow Jones Transportation Average reached an 18 month high.
Chart courtesy of StockCharts.com www.stockcharts.com
Uranium prices are trying to bottom near support. They added $0.25 to $40.75 U.S. per lb. last week. (Chart courtesy of www.uxc.com )
ETF News
Deborah Fuhr from Blackrock released her always interesting monthly report summarizing developments in the ETF industry. Following are highlights for February:
- The Global ETF industry traded 2,090 ETFs with 3,997 listing with assets valued at $1,001.5 billion U.S. Year-to-date, the number of ETFs increased by 7.3% with 143 new ETFs launched. The launch of another 840 ETFs is planned.
- The U.S. ETF industry traded 807 ETFs with assets valued at $678.6 billion U.S. Year-to-date the number of ETFs increased by 4.5% with 34 new ETFs launched.
- The Canadian ETF industry traded 132 ETFs with assets valued at $29.7 billion U.S. Year-to-date the number of ETFs increased by 21.1% with 23 new ETFs launched.
Adrienne Toghraie’s “Trader’s Coach” Column
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Life is Bad Tomorrow
By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Coach
Many people are living in fear of a doom and gloom scenario for their future because of how they view the economy. Yes, it is true that the economy is not good for many people. It is also true that the threat of losing your job, losing your retirement and losing your insurance could be your next reality. But if you create a dark, negative world in your mind, you are more likely to create it in the real world. While the unemployment rate is high, what is also true is that a good majority of the population is working.
Taking Stock of the Present
No matter what your situation, the fact is that there are people that have it worse than you. While knowing this is not a comfort to those who are struggling, if we look at the fortunate side of our life, we will be a lot less stressed and more likely to be able to recognize opportunity.
We are a society where status quo is not okay. This year has to be better than last and next year has to be better than this. I have been preaching this for the last twenty-five years, and I certainly live my life with goals to make life richer. The bottom line for us as human beings is that we want to feel good. This is the one area that we do have control over in our lives. In the final analysis of life, we will look back on the special moments with special people as being the most rewarding parts of our life.
Trading and Traders Are Forever
Unless the whole world collapses, we can pretty much count on trading opportunities being there. This is why trading is so attractive to many people. But, it cannot be just the desire to make money for you to have trading success. You must enjoy the process. In order for this to happen, the resources of money, education and overcoming self-imposed limitations are key factors in your success. I know it is not easy to think about trading when you have to put food on the table, and you do not have these resources. However, if you dwell on a future that is without what you want, it is most likely that you will make it a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Inch Worm
Bill was a person who would not let his present situation define his future. He was a computer programmer for twenty-five years and lost his job. His wife, who was employed with a high paying job, decided to leave him for another man. I met Bill a little over a year ago thru a Webinar when he wrote, “I want to reap the rewards of a trading career, but I do not have money. My education is just from a few books, and I don’t know how I am going to support myself. Do I have a chance?” I told him that it was unlikely unless he was willing to change his circumstances. Here is the advice that I gave him:
· Find a creative way to look for a job instead of following the method everyone
else is using, and you will have less competition
· Clean out all the clutter in your environment
· Make good choices about creating energy
· Check out free Webinars for traders
· Go to trading and investment clubs and borrow the books that others recommend
· Or, if you want to know who to study with, take my Trader Evaluation
· Use your time as if it were your most precious commodity
Bill attended another Webinar that I was presenting two months ago. He wrote me after the Webinar to thank me for my advice, and to let me know how he had progressed. The first thing he did was clear out his environment. He said this enabled him to see a bright future.
Bill found a part time job by going to a meet-up group where he gave a speech about how to protect computers and make them more effective. One of the members of the group asked him several questions related to his own computers. Happy with the answers he received, he hired Bill. With this job, Bill made enough money to pay his bills. This gave him confidence to work harder on his trading. Happy with the trading mentor that I recommended; eventually he purchased all of his books. Bill developed a strategy and tested it to see that it was viable. The only problem was that he was only able to trade one contract. Over a six-month period he slowly started to grow his small account. Sharing the enthusiasm with his boss about trading and showing him the results he was getting, his boss asked if Bill would be willing to trade some of his money. They shared Bill’s success in trading with their meet-up group. Bill is now managing two million dollars, and he met a lady who has captured his heart.
I asked Bill how he sees his future and he said, “The sky’s the limit.”
Conclusion
It is easy to go down that dark road when you are depressed. If you remind yourself that you get to choose how you see your future, you are more likely not only to see a bright future, but manifest it as well.
Adrienne’s Calendar of Events
www.TradingOnTarget.com
|
DATE |
EVENT |
TITLE |
PRESENTER |
FEE |
|
3/17 |
Webinar |
Introduction to MetaStock |
Jeff Gibby |
FREE |
Registration for MetaStock URL:
http://tradingontarget.omnovia.com/registration/pid=57071268160576
|
3/20 |
½ Day Webinar |
Master Class for Traders * |
Adrienne |
$500 * |
|
7/17-7/18 |
Live Seminar |
Top Performance Seminar * |
Adrienne |
$2,500 * |
Go to www.TradingOnTarget.com or email: Adrienne@TradingOnTarget.com for more information
* Ask for early enrollment special
CSTA News
The Canadian Society of Technical Analysts is launching a chapter in Winnipeg. Following is the contact information:
Wednesday, March 17th at 7pm (Winnipeg time)
Meeting of the Winnipeg Chapter of CSTA
Guest Speaker: TBA
At: National Research Council building,
435 Ellice Avenue (Ellice and Vaughan)
Contact Allen Hosey 925-5204 days, to confirm attendance.
Lou Schizas’ Blog
Lou Schizas offers an interesting comment entitled, “Gold Wheaton: The bigger the base, the better the case”. Following is a link to his blog:
http://www.happycapitalism.com/2010/03/the-bigger-the-base-the-better-the-case/#comments
FP Trading Desk Headlines
Headline reads, “Gold stock performance in rate hike cycles”. Following is a link to the report:
Headline reads, “Scotia Capital stays bullish on Canada”. Following is a link to the report:
Headline reads, “12 reasons to be bullish”. Following is a link to the report:
Headline reads, “Four reasons to be bearish on stocks”. Following is a link to the report: http://network.nationalpost.com/NP/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2010/03/09/4-reasons-to-be-bearish-on-stocks.aspx
Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide
Tech Talk frequently mentions Brooke Thackray and his book entitled, “Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide”. The book summarizes attractive seasonal trades that are available during the year. The book can be purchased directly at Amazon.ca and Amazon.com. Following are links to these book stores:
Seasonal trades in the book that currently are active include Consumer Discretionary, Small Cap, Platinum, U.S. Materials, U.S. Retail, U.S. Oil Exploration & Production, U.S. Energy and Metals & Mining.
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don Vialoux is a research analyst for JovInvestment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the author and are not necessarily the views of JovInvestment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by JovInvestment Management Inc
HAP Seasonal Rotation E.T.F. HAC $10.50 March 9 2010
· High 10.55
· Low 10.38
· Bid 10.38×5 lots
· Ask 10.55×5 lots
· Volume 6,975
· Open 10.38
· Previous Close 10.50
· 52-week High 10.65 on Jan 18
· 52-week Low 9.44 on Feb 5
· Beta 2.33
· Net Asset Value per unit: $10.48
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March 10th, 2010 at 6:53 am
I have been considering a trade in uranium through Uranium Participation Units (ticker U). It is presently very close to support at $5.95 and looks way oversold. With some positive news I think it could really move as it did to $18.50 three years ago when there were real concerns about the uranium supply chain.
Canada is considering relaxing foreign ownership rules to encourage more investment. China and India want stability in prices as they embark on ambitious nuclear plant building programs so they could be interested in opportunities.
What do you think of U as an upcoming trade and is there any seasonality to prices?
March 10th, 2010 at 7:49 am
Good Morning Don,
Would you say that the 50dma has been a safe support for $gold lately? If so can that level be used to play GLD or XGD ? I think in the past XGD has not always closely followed $gold ? Appreciate your TA on gold please n thanks.
Joe
March 10th, 2010 at 8:43 am
Hello Don,
Is Boeing (BA) overbought at this point? I’d like to buy in for this seasonal run, but am very reluctant since Stochastics, RSI are in overbought range and MacD seems to be as well, from my amature skill set. Should I wait for a drop to support (which is?)?
Thanks,
Richard
March 10th, 2010 at 8:50 am
Hello Don
Whats your TA for WTN.TO? Thanks
March 10th, 2010 at 8:51 am
Hi Don,
Consider most strategy use are related to S&P and US ETF. Should one treat HAC as US Equity for asset allocation perposes?
March 10th, 2010 at 8:58 am
Don,
Love the new site http://www.equityclock.com/ and appreciate that you incorporated all the seasonality time frames in a one chart. I found it much easier than having to read through Brooke’s book. One questions here: I could not find the charts for EEM and EFA on Equityclock and what’s your take on them?
Thanks!
March 10th, 2010 at 9:09 am
What would be the next resistance level for Citigroup? thanks
March 10th, 2010 at 9:14 am
Don – target for aav???
March 10th, 2010 at 9:58 am
Don,
Like your new format and the added features you have recently made.
Appreciate the option addition as I used to plug you for info when we were both ar RBC DS.
Thanks and keep up the good work
Thoughts on SU as I have written calls and they expired. Would you recommend I rewrite even though SU has fallen in price since latet Feb?
March 10th, 2010 at 10:07 am
Hi Don,
analysts at banks are saying that they see the cdn $ rise and to and above parity by the end of the summer.
While an article today on Bloomberg talks of the USD strenthning.
I am holding USD cash and want to convert it to CDN at some point this year.
I converted some last month at 1.07 while the current rate is 1.025 do you think it can go back to the same level at some point this year.
what is your short and long term analysis on the cad vs the usd.
Thanks
March 10th, 2010 at 1:42 pm
I’d be interested in your comments to Amelia on Uranium and then my own questions as well; i) by including the chart are you implying that it may be bottoming and either seasonal or fundamental factors could drive it higher. ii) You included the chart but not much commentary which is odd. Is it a play that you believe in? As Amelia points out her analysis shows near oversold and hitting support. iii) So your expanded thoughts on uranium, including what vehicles may be a way to play it would be appreciated.
March 10th, 2010 at 2:20 pm
Hi Don,
I am a regular reader & appreciate your efforts.
Just wanted to enquire about seasonality of Nat Gas going into spring/summer.
Thanks
March 10th, 2010 at 2:32 pm
TT’s acquisition of equity clock looks like a good fit.
March 10th, 2010 at 2:53 pm
As per the seasonal charts on Equity Clock for natural gas it looks like the best strategy is to short and hold. Am I correct in reading the charts to mean from Jan 1 to Dec 31 natural gas prices decline:
Natural Gas Futures (NG) decline 5%
Natural Gas miNY Futures (QN) decline 14%
If that would be correct shorting HNU should yield high.
March 10th, 2010 at 4:04 pm
Hi Roger,
You are correct in the reading of the chart. Problem is that Nat Gas has been extremely volatile over the last couple of years to the point that the seasonality has become somewhat distorted. If you were to short HNU come the June timeframe then that may present a decent play depending on what the technicals and fundamentals are revealing at that point. Coming from an analyst that reports on individual equities, have you considered investing in energy companies that are engaged in the commodity? SWN was mentioned in yesterday’s report, but flipping to the Canadian side and CNQ.TO shows a decent run-up this time of year into early spring. Thackray indicates that the sector tops out at the beginning of May, and therefore this may be the ideal time to close out of positions before the summer rolls around.
March 10th, 2010 at 9:24 pm
Amelia and DaddyO, you two should read Don’s response on March 1.
March 10th, 2010 at 9:57 pm
Don,
Your TA on CCO.to as of 10th March would really help me make my decision on whether to put in a buy tomorrow or not. Thanks,
KC
March 11th, 2010 at 8:40 am
Hi Amelia. Long term fundamentals on U are positive. Sorry, units have traded only since 2005. Data is insufficient to complete a seasonality study. The key is timing. When it comes to technicals on uranium and uranium stocks, I usually defer to the expert, Merv Burak. Merv offers a free blog that offers technicals on uranium and uranium stocks. Merv is kind of neutral at present but wants to become bullish based on recent technical consolidation in the sector. Following is a link to his blog:
http://techuranium.blogspot.com/
March 11th, 2010 at 10:29 am
Hi Richard. Nice seasonal trade in BA so far! The stock currently is substantially short term overbought. Preferred strategy if looking for a second seasonal entry point is to wait for a pullback.
March 11th, 2010 at 10:32 am
Hi Roy. WTN looks interesting on the charts. It currently is testing resistance at $4.42. On balance volume shows that the stock is being strongly accumulated.
March 11th, 2010 at 10:39 am
Hi AF. According to Brooke Thackray’s March Newsletter, HAC held a 36.2% interest in Canadian ETFs, 58.8% U.S. ETFs and 4.9% cash at the end of February. All U.S. positions are hedged to protect against currency risk. Weights will vary significantly during the year based on seasonality in sectors and markets. For example, the weight in Canadian securities likely will approach the 80% level on average during the summer. Technically, HAC is a Canadian based ETF that trades in Canadian Dollars.
March 11th, 2010 at 10:40 am
Hi George. Next resistance for C is at $5.43.
March 11th, 2010 at 10:56 am
Hi Reg. SU has good support at $30.00 and strong resistance at $35 and above. Writing call options against existing positions with expiry in May or June makes sense.
March 11th, 2010 at 7:29 pm
Hi Kim. Current intermediate upside potential for AAV is to $9.00.
March 11th, 2010 at 7:33 pm
Hi KC. Short term momentum indicators (notably Stochastics recovering from below 20% and MACD establishing an uptrend from an oversold level)finally have turned positive. Looks like an opportune entry point for the seasonal play lasting until early June.