Tech Talk for Monday May 10th 2010

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Pre-opening Comments for Monday May 10th 2010

U.S. equity index futures are sharply higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 46 points in pre-opening trade. Strength came into equity markets following news that European finance ministers have set up a line of credit valued at $970 billion designed to purchase sovereign debt of European nations. Notably stronger in overnight markets were financial service stocks, particularly in Europe. European banks hold large positions in European sovereign debt.

The Euro strengthened on the news and the U.S. Dollar weakened. Commodities priced in U.S. Dollars other than gold moved higher. Strength in commodity prices is expected to add to strength in the TSX Composite Index at the opening.

Not all the news was bullish this morning. Fannie Mae announced a first quarter loss of $13.1 billion. It also announced that its long term financial sustainability is uncertain. Fannie Mae holds residential mortgages with a principal value in excess of $500 billion. Most of its portfolio of mortgages are “under water”. Congress eventually will need a plan to bail out Fannie Mae.

Goldman’s Sach’s influence on equity markets appeared once again. Boeing gained 5% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from Neutral to Conviction Buy. Target was raised from $82 to $90.

Devon Energy added 4% after Argus upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy. Target price is $76.

Cott Beverages was upgraded by Stifel Nicolaus from Hold to Buy. Target is $10.25.

Gildan Activewear was upgraded by TD Newcrest from Hold to Buy.

Eldorado Gold was upgraded by Credit Suisse from Neutral to Outperform

EquityClock.com comment

Can the survivors be trusted?

http://www.equityclock.com/2010/05/09/can-the-survivors-be-trusted/

Economic News This Week

The focus is on April retail sales

March U.S. Trade Deficit to be released on Tuesday at 8:30 AM EDT is expected to increase to $40 billion from $39.7 billion in February.

April Retail Sales to be released on Thursday at 8:30 AM EDT is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 1.9% increase in March. Excluding autos, retail sales are expected to increase 0.5% versus 0.9% in March.

April Capacity Utilization to be released on Thursday at 9:15 AM EDT is expected to increase to 73.8% from 73.2% in March.

April Industrial Production to be released on Thursday at 9:15 AM EDT is expected to increase 0.6% versus an increase of 0.1% in March.

The May Michigan Sentiment indicator to be released on Thursday at 9:55 AM EDT is expected to improve to 73.5 from 72.2 in April.

March Business Inventories to be released on Thursday at 10:00 AM EDT are expected to increase by 0.4% versus an increase of 0.5% in February.

Earnings News

U.S. first quarter earnings reports are winding down.

Monday sees Pan American Silver and Silvercorp.

Tuesday sees Fannie Mae, Toyota Motors and Disney

Wednesday sees Macy’s, Quebecor, Rona and Silver Wheaton

Thursday sees CAE, Canadian Tire, Finning, Gammon Gold, Gildan Activewear, NVIDIA, Quadra Mining, Sony, Stantec, Tim Hortons and Wendy’s

Friday sees JC Penney and Toromont

Equity Index Trends

The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. the Up/Down ratio) plunged last week from 6.40 to (234/159=) 1.47.

Bullish Percent Index plunged from 84.20% to 61.40% and remained below its 15 day moving average. The Index is intermediate overbought and trending lower.

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The Up/Down ratio for TSX Composite stocks plunged from 2.78 to (80/85=) 0.94. Decline in the ratio below 1.00 implies that TSX stocks have moved from the Break Down phase to the Mark Down phase.

Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks plunged from 79.00% to 70.00% and remains below its 15 day moving average. The Index is intermediate overbought and trending lower.

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The S&P 500 Index fell 75.81 points (6.39%) last week on higher than average volume. Intermediate trend remains up. Resistance has formed at 1,219.80. The Index fell below its 50 and 200 day moving averages last week. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Support is indicated at 1,044.50. Favourable seasonal influences have expired.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average plunged from 70.40% to 14.80%. Percent already has reached a level where a bottom frequently occurs. However, Percent has yet to show signs of bottoming.

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Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average plunged from 87.60% to 67.00%. Percent remains intermediate overbought and trending lower.

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The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 628.18 points (5.71%) last week. Resistance has formed at 11,258.01. Support is at 9,835.09. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index broke below its 50 and 200 day moving averages last week. Nice bounce on Friday from near its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Favourable seasonal influences have expired. Strength relative to the S&P has changed from negative to at least neutral.

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Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks plunged from 93.33% to 62.22% last week and remained below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and is trending lower.

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Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks plunged last week from 73.47% to 62.27% and fell below its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought and is trending downward.

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The NASDAQ Composite Index lost 195.46 points (7.95%) last week. Resistance has formed at 2,535.28. Support is at 2,100.17. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index broke both its 50 and 200 day moving averages last week. Short term momentum indicators are short term oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive, but is showing early signs of change.

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The Russell 2000 Index fell 63.60 points (8.88%) last week. Resistance has formed at 745.95. Support is at 580.49. The Index broke below its 50 day moving average last week and is testing its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive, but is showing early signs of change.

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The Dow Jones Transportation Average dropped 372.61 points (7.98%) last week. Resistance has formed at 4,812.87. Intermediate trend remains up. The Index broke below its 50 day moving average last week and is testing its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.

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The TSX Composite Index plunged 518.27 points (4.24%) last week on higher than average volume. Resistance has formed at 12,321.76. Support is at 10,990.41. Intermediate trend remains up. Favourable seasonal influences have expired. The Index fell below its 50 and 200 day moving averages last week. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index recently has turned positive.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average fell from 50.50% to 22.50% last week. Percent is close to a level where a bottom is reached, but signs of a bottom have yet to surface.

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Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average dropped from 70.50% to 55.50% last week. Percent remains intermediate overbought and continues to trend lower.

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The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index fell another 326.50 points (6.75%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from up to neutral when support at 4,483.30 was broken. Resistance exists at 5,048.60. The Index fell below its 200 day moving average. Favourable seasonal influences have expired. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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The Nikkei Average plunged 692.81 points (6.27%) last week. Intermediate trend remains up. Resistance is at 11,408.17. Support is at 9,857.38. The Average broke below its 50 and 200 day moving average. Favourable seasonal influences have expired. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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The Shanghai Composite Index lost another 182.23 points (6.35%) last week. Intermediate trend remains down. Resistance is at 3,181.66. The Index remains below its 50 and 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.

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The London FT Index fell 430.27 points (7.25%), the Frankfurt DAX Index lost 420.61 points (6.86%) and the Paris CAC Index plunged 424.40 points (11.12%) last week.

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The Athens Index plunged 239.52 points (12.81%) last week and closed at its low on Friday. Intermediate trend is down. The Index remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. An agreement was reached by European bankers over the weekend in an attempt to stabilize the Euro. A reaction to the agreement comes this morning. Traders remain skeptical.

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Currencies

The U.S. Dollar gained 2.76 (3.37%) last week, an extraordinary event. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at 80.03. It remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The Dollar fell sharply on Friday in anticipation of a bailout package expected to be reached by European finance ministers over the weekend. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.

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Conversely, the Euro fell 5.42 points (4.08%), an extraordinary event. Intermediate trend remains down. It remains below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but continue to trend lower. The Euro rose sharply on Friday in anticipation of an agreement by European finance ministers over the weekend.

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The Canadian Dollar fell another 2.39 cents U.S. last week. Resistance is at 100.51. Support is at 92.83. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Nice bounce on Friday from near its 200 day moving average!

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Commodities

The CRB Index fell 16.39 points (5.90%) last week on strength in the U.S. Dollar. It broke support at 266.64 and is testing next support at 256.89. Resistance is at 280.83. The Index fell below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but continue to trend lower.

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Weakness in commodity prices was led by a fall in crude oil prices. They dropped $11.04 U.S. per barrel (12.81%) last week and fell below their 50 and 200 day moving averages. Resistance has formed at $87.26. Support is at $69.50. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.

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Gasoline plunged $0.27 per gallon (11.25%) last week. It broke below support at $2.23 and its 50 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.

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Natural gas remains in a trading range between $3.82 and $4.42. Short term momentum indicators currently are mixed.

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The S&P Energy Index fell another 35.33 points (8.87%) last week. The Index broke below its 50 and 200 day moving average as well as support at 397.67. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Favourable seasonal influences have expired.

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The TSX Energy Index dropped 22.45 points (7.48%) last week. The Index fell below its 50 and 200 day moving averages and support at 272.20. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Seasonal influences remain positive until the first week in June. Time for a recovery during the current period of seasonal strength remains, but the question about this trade is “When to sell?”

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Gold gained another $29.30 U.S. per ounce last week and is testing resistance at its all time high at $1,226.40. Gains were recorded despite strength in the U.S. Dollar, an encouraging sign. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.

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A word of caution! Gold equities are not responding to higher gold prices.

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Ditto for Silver and Platinum!

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Copper remains under technical pressure. It lost another $0.21 per lb. (6.23%) last week, in line with weakness in the Shanghai Composite Index. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.

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The grain ETF remains in a trading range. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels.

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Technicals for lumber continue to deteriorate. Lumber dropped another 6.5% last week. Momentum indictors are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.

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Interest Rates

The yield on 10 year Treasuries plunged 0.23% last week (flight to quality).

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Conversely, the long term T-Bond ETF broke resistance at $97.95 last week. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.

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Other Factors

The VIX indicator jumped 85.7% last week and closed near its high on Friday. A spike of uncertainty of this magnitude will take time to unwind. Please note that previous spikes above 35% historically have provided an intermediate buying opportunity after the peak has passed. However, signs of a peak have yet to be identified.

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The Baltic Dry Index gained another 7.6% last week, an encouraging sign that international trade continues to recover.

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Substantial technical damage was registered last week in equity markets around the world and in most sectors (the exception was gold). Markets are short term oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Time is needed before technical damage is repaired and a significant recovery is possible.

Favourable seasonal influences for most equity markets and economically sensitive sectors have expired.

Favourable influences from anticipation of better than expected first quarter earnings reports has expired in the U.S. and is close to expiring in Canada.

U.S. equity indices are following their historic trend during mid-term U.S. election years. They peaked on schedule in the third week of April and are expected to trend lower (with short term recovery rallies) until the end of September. The peak this time corresponded with Goldman Sach’s receipt of a civil suit by the SEC on April 16th Goldman Sachs was in the news again last week. Recently, whenever Goldman Sachs has been in the news, its share price and U.S. equity markets have moved lower. Look for more of the same until at least this fall. More comments on the “Goldman Sachs effect” are offered below.

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Political events will continue to impact equity markets. Is the Greek financial crisis over? More national strikes are scheduled this week. Will the political deadlock in the U.K. be resolved following the election last week? Negotiations continue. Will President Obama’s selection of a Supreme Court candidate this week raise political concerns and economic uncertainty? Probably! Will a resolution on financial regulation be reached this week? Probably not! Will the oil spill crisis in the Gulf of Mexico be resolved? Probably not! Will the U.S. press for economic sanctions against Iran through the U.N? Probably! None of these events individually are significant. However, together, they are raising economic uncertainties. Equity markets do not respond well to growing economic uncertainties

Economic news this week is mildly friendly for equity markets.

The Bottom Line

The intermediate trend for equity markets is down. Short term opportunities in equity markets and sectors will appear between now and September. However, now is not the time to initiate new equity positions. Indeed, short term strength is an opportunity to reduce existing positions.

Tech Talk and EquityClock.com’s Weekly Column in the Financial Post Published on Saturday

(Available by paid subscription at www.nationalpost.com )

The Goldman Sachs Effect

Goldman Sachs has been at the forefront of news lately due to allegations surrounding creation of subprime mortgage products and investment positions placed against these products. Those who benefited are alleged to have made billions of dollars. Events and negative news on Goldman were one of the reasons why equity markets were reeling last week. Investors are losing faith in the company and the markets that it makes.

This “too big too fail” firm has clout in the marketplace. Over the past ten years when Goldman’s shares recorded a daily rally of 5% or more, the S&P 500 gained an average of 2.39% and increased 91percent of the time. Gains of this magnitude certainly did not occur on quiet days or during isolated events.

The same holds true when Goldman’s stock had a bad day, losing 5 percent or more. The ripple effect through equity markets saw the S&P 500 Index lose an average of 2.81 percent and the S&P 500 Index drop 94 percent of the time. When Goldman moves, the market follows.

Stances on equity markets, sectors and individual equities taken by Goldman are highly followed and have the strength to influence the direction of recommended equities. Stock components of the Dow Jones Industrial Average, that received recommendation upgrades by the firm over the last 10 years, gained an average of 1.84 percent on the day of the upgrade. Conversely, equities lost 2.30 percent on the day when the company’s analysts downgraded Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks. However, responses to new equity ideas only have a short term impact. Many investors, who purchased equity investments marketed by the company beyond the first day of a new idea, have experienced greater success. If holding a stock that plummets as a result of a Goldman downgrade, the 2.3 percent one-day loss quickly levels out to a loss of only 0.4 percent within one month of the demotion as investors partake to the cheaper equity.

The “too big to fail” has become “too big to ignore”. When investors observe that Goldman has lost faith in a particular investment, traders react. Stocks taken off its “recommended list” have dropped an average of 5.35 percent during the day of removal, even though a market perform or a market outperform rating is maintained. Lost prestige due to removal from its recommended list has a significant negative impact. Question: with the company’s ability to move markets on individual securities, is there reason to oblige the company to disclose its interest in these securities?

The bottom line is that it is detrimental to act as a contrarian to new equity ideas offered by this company. Investors take great faith in the strength and intuition that Goldman brings to the marketplace.

How can we increase our odds of success by following opinion changes offered by this financial giant? First, May is documented as the worst performing month for Goldman’s shares, losing as much as 5 percent on average during the past 20 years. May represents the period that the stock tops out following seasonal gains in anticipation of strong first quarter earnings. The January to April period of seasonal strength in Goldman coincides with a period of seasonal strength by the S&P financial services sector that has generated an average return per year of 8 percent over the past 10 years.

Second, seek alternatives to Goldman in the month of May and invest in gold, man. During Goldman’s period of weakness in May, gold usually rallies as a safe-haven investment prior to more volatile summer months for equity markets.

Third, when Goldman is subjected to news and scrutiny, step back. Public interest in the stock gauged by the number of internet searches performed on the term “Goldman Sachs” shows that attention is high. If attention increases, volatility in its stock will increase, placing severe pressure on its value. Losses averaging 20 percent over a two month period following a period of notoriety have been the norm based on past history.

Goldman Sachs leaves a giant footprint on equity markets when it takes action. Investors may not have Goldman’s insight on equity selections, but they can develop a plan designed to profitably respond at the appropriate time to its actions.

Jon Vialoux and Don Vialoux are authors of free daily reports on equity markets, sectors, commodities, equities and Exchange Traded Funds. Reports are available at www.timingthemarket.ca and www.equityclock.com

Tom Rogers’ “Elliott Wave” Blog

http://www.tomrogers.net/signpost.htm

FP Trading Desk Headline

FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Yet another systemic failure”. Following is a link to the report:

http://network.nationalpost.com/NP/blogs/tradingdesk/archive/2010/05/07/yet-another-systemic-failure.aspx

EquityClock.com reports released on Friday

What do these eight technical indicators mean for the markets? Following is a link to the report:

http://www.equityclock.com/2010/05/07/what-do-these-8-technical-indicators-mean-for-the-markets/

Procter&Gamble (PG): After the crash

http://www.equityclock.com/2010/05/07/the-procter-gamble-company-nysepg-after-the-crash/

Market sentiment: Options activity for May 7th 2010

http://www.equityclock.com/2010/05/07/market-sentiment-options-activity-for-may-7-2010/

Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide

Tech Talk frequently mentions Brooke Thackray and his book entitled, “Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide”. The book summarizes attractive seasonal trades that are available during the year. The book can be purchased directly at Amazon.ca and Amazon.com. Following are links to these book stores:

U.S. Customers: Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide: How to Profit from Seasonal Market Trends (Thackray’s Investor’s Guide)

Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don Vialoux is a research analyst for JovInvestment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the author and are not necessarily the views of JovInvestment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by JovInvestment Management Inc

HAP Seasonal Rotation E.T.F. HAC $10.60 May 7 2010

· High 10.62

· Low 10.54

· Bid 10.57×0 lots

· Ask 10.60×0 lots

· Volume 7,908

· Open 10.60

· Previous Close 10.60

· 52-week High 10.91 on Apr 14

· 52-week Low 9.44 on Feb 5

· Beta 2.29

· Net Asset Value per unit: $10.60

Sponsored By...


Discussions from the Tech Talk Forum: An error has occurred, which probably means the feed is down. Try again later.

16 Responses to “Tech Talk for Monday May 10th 2010”

  1. Amelia Says:

    When I checked Bloomberg this morning the European markets were up between 5.07% (FTSE) and 11.98% (IBEX)

    The last time the RSI of SPX touched 30 was 14 months ago at the bottom. I may take advantage of the bounce I think to get out of positions that I was going to keep for income in the next 6 months because I see the risk of 15-25% more coming out of the markets to where Grantham (and maybe Rosenberg) sees fair value.

  2. Jake Says:

    Above, Don says TSX stocks have moved “from the Break Down phase to the Mark Down phase.” Anyone know what this means?

  3. Jeff Says:

    Hi Don
    I have a question for you regarding interest rates.
    Do you see the B.O.C. raising rates this year?
    Where do you see interest rates by the end of 2010, and 2011?
    I am looking at buying bank perpetual preferred shares yielding around 6%, but am I too early?
    Thanks
    Jeff

  4. Darcy Says:

    Hi Jake,

    Keep in mind, I’m not an expert nor authority, but . . .

    Briefly, the Breakdown Phase occurs when the up/down ratio is falling but it’s still above 1.0, i.e., a large number of stocks are moving below support. It’s recommended you sell more stocks.

    The Markdown Phase occurs when the up/down ratio is falling below 1.0, i.e., more stocks are breaking support than breaking resistance, it’s reccomended you sell only special situations.

    The above is according to a Tech Talk article I printed, it was on/for Tuesday May 23rd., 2006. I don’t know if that article is still available in the archives. I think it’s likely not.

    The two phases happen to be number 7 and 8 in the order I give here. there are 8 phases . . . I have the other six (1-6) but I don’t know if I can get them all in here.

    Anyway, Don might cover that one for us again sometime soon.

    Here’s the next one below. We start from scratch, so to speak.

    Number 1 is: the Bottoming Phase, the up/down ratio is Low, i.e., A large number of stocks have reached or exceeded their downside technical target. Short term support levels are being established . . . it’s recommended you choose stocks to buy. (It doesn’t say or mean you buy then).

    I hope that helps you.

  5. Andrew Says:

    Hi Don & co.

    Related to the Goldman story, it would be interesting to get your take on this story at some point. Are they in too dominant a position in the marketplace for this to be possible?

    http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=a5BwJAfaalEw

  6. canuck2004 Says:

    In this kind of wild swing market fundamentals and charts mean little…. it’s pure emotion. Chances of making money on short term trades are 50/50 at best… not good enough odds for me… too much risk in here. I like have the odds in my favor and an upward trend to follow.

    I’m not as bearish as Eric Sprott, but the market is in need of a decent correction anyway….. I agree with Don and I think the bias is downward for the next few weeks or months… until the fall.

    IMO The Euro thing is not finished… and California is in even worse shape, and nobody is looking at that.

    When the VIX drops down to more normal levels I’ll look at it again.

    No rush jumping in here.

  7. Darcy Says:

    Hi again Jake,

    Don has a special report and talks about Breadown & Markdown Phase and the other phases in more detail . . . go here http://www.dvtechtalk.com/specialreports/specialreport3.htm

    You may have to accept an active X control from Microsoft, I think, to view parts of the page properly.

    Scroll down to >> “Understanding the Eight Phases Of the Stock Market Cycle” it’s about 1/3 or so of the way down the page.

  8. MTD Says:

    Is there a seasonality to XIN or CBQ or other international stocks/indexes? Thanks!

  9. marc Says:

    Don, what do you make of Shanghai after overnight action? Appears we may get a counter-trend move, at least shorter term, in my opinion. CAGC and CNAM, 2 big movers in recent mos have been hit hard in recent correction,also have a chance to bounce.

  10. KC Says:

    Hi Don,

    Is there a period of seasonal strength for BCE.to ? What is a good entry point ?

    Does anyone know what the percentage yield or dividend is ?

    Regards
    KC

  11. Darcy Says:

    Kay,

    Answering your second question . . . annual dividend is about $1.74 per share or about a 5.7% yield.

  12. Don Vialoux Says:

    Hi Jeff. The Bank of Canada’s next meeting on overnight lending rates to Canada’s major banks is scheduled on Tuesday June 1st. Consensus is that Bank of Canada will raise rates for the first time. Best guess is the overnight lending rate goes to 0.50-0.75%. Look for additional gains in the second half of 2010 as strength in the Canadian economy relative to the economies of G8 nations becomes apparent.

  13. Don Vialoux Says:

    Thanks, Darcy. Good explanation.

  14. Don Vialoux Says:

    Hi Andrew. Goldman likely isn’t too dominant. Latest trading data shows that Goldman has been knocked back a notch and profitability by its trading desk has matched two other major firms. Goldman currently is a “ligntning rod” for politicians who are looking for a way to shift the blame for the 2008 economic meltdown during a mid-term election year. Meanwhile, the politicians conveniently are ignoring the growing financial crisis that they have built (i.e.Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). As long as Goldman remains on the front page of U.S. newspapers (probably until after the mid-term election), its stock is expected to underperform the market. In addition, its performance is expected to continue to impact U.S. equity markets.

  15. Don Vialoux Says:

    Hi MTD. Yes, most equity markets in the world have similar seasonality. A study done by a U.S. professor a few years ago showed that 34 of 35 equity markets in the world had what he called a “Halloween effect”. That is, equity indices have a history of moving higher from the six month period from the end of October (Halloween) to the end of April. My studies show that seasonality in major European equity markets is slightly stronger than in North American equity markets. Seasonality occurs because of a series of annual recurring events. Many of the events are tax related. Most of these events are universal.

  16. Don Vialoux Says:

    Hi KC. BCE has several short term periods during the year when it records positive performance, most notably from mid May to mid July and early October to the end of November.

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