Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday May 11th 2010
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 13 points in pre-opening trade. Traders are skeptical about Europe’s financial bail out package. In addition, they are concerned that China will increase interest rates again in order to dampen inflation expectations. Inflation in China rose to a 2.8% rate in April. The Shanghai Composite Index fell 1.9% on the news. Economically sensitive commodity prices including crude oil and copper moved lower.
Skepticism about Europe’s financial bail out package has spilled into the gold market. Gold is up $20 to $1220 U.S. per ounce. Gold is testing its all time high at $1226.40 U.S. per ounce.
Toyota moved slightly lower after reporting higher than expected first quarter earnings.
Credit Suisse launched coverage of the conglomerate sector by giving an Outperform rating to General Electric, United Technologies and Emerson Electric. Target on General Electric is $23. Target on United Technologies is $93. Target on Emerson Electric is $62.
EquityClock.com stock of the day
Quick, get back into gold. The market has fooled you!
http://www.equityclock.com/2010/05/10/quick-get-back-into-gold-the-market-has-fooled-you/
Technical Action Yesterday
Technical action by S&P 500 stocks was quiet yesterday. One S&P 500 stock broke resistance (Ventas) and none broke support. The Up/Down ratio was unchanged at (234/159=) 1.47.
Technical action by TSX Composite stocks also was quiet. Two TSX stocks broke resistance (CGI Group and Primaris REIT) and none broke support. The Up/Down ratio inched up from 0.94 to (80/84=) 0.95.
Interesting Charts
Major North American equity indices recovered strongly yesterday from near their 200 day moving average and are now testing their 50 day moving average, a first level where resistance is likely to be found.
Currency speculators are skeptical about the long term viability of the European bailout package. The Euro opened strongly following announcement of the package, but steadily moved lower throughout the day to close at a small gain.
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Euro/US Dollar rallies expected to fade quickly”. Following is a link to the report:
Weekly Relative Strength Review on Sector SPDRs
Lots of changes during the past week:
- Economically sensitive SPDRs (XLK, XLY, XLI, XLE, XLB) underperformed the S&P 500 Index last week.
- Defensive SPDRs outperformed the S&P 500 (XLU, XLV, XLP).
- Short term momentum indicators recovered from oversold levels for all SPDRs. Indicators continue to trend higher.
Thackray’s Market Letter: Know Your Buy & Sells a Month in Advance
Brooke released his monthly newsletter yesterday. Highlights include:
- S&P 500 Technical Status
- Holdings in Horizons AlphaPro Seasonal Rotation Fund (HAC) on April 30th
- Updates on trades in HAC completed in the month of April.
- Future strategies for HAC (including an explanation on “End of Month” strategies.
Brooke’s newsletter is free. To subscribe send an email to subscribe@alphamountain.com with SUBSCRIBE in the subject line. Also please state your first and last name, city and country.
EquityClock.com reports released yesterday
Investment fraud prevention: Forex traders beware!
http://www.equityclock.com/2010/05/10/investment-fraud-prevention-forex-traders-beware/
Market sentiment: Options activity for May 10th 2010.
http://www.equityclock.com/2010/05/10/market-sentiment-options-activity-for-may-10-2010/
Adrienne Toghraie’s “Trader’s Coach” Column
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What System is Right for Me?
By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Coach
Are you in a state of limbo trying to decide on
what system or methodology in trading is right for you?
There are so many “want to be traders” who are not trading or not to the level they want to be in trading because they cannot make up their mind, go from strategy to strategy or are a constant student of the markets. For those of you who are in these states of search, here are some ideas:
· Read life stories about traders and determine with whom you identify
· Listen to Webinars and listen to questions being answered or ask the right questions
· Go to the Traders Expo and learn from others what questions to ask
If you have already done all of this type of preparation and are still battling your decisions, consider the following:
· If you have a full time job, I would suggest Swing Trading, because of your time
constraints.
· If you have emotional issues dealing with pulling the trigger, you might consider
longer-term time frames. The more trades you take the more you will stir up your
emotions.
· If you have the time and money to trade and get bored easily, then I would suggest
Day Trading. However, if you have not handled psychological issues that deal with
following your rules, these issues will only get worse until you handle them.
Other honing in on other success strategies:
· Pick any one stock, group of stocks or one commodity and stick with it until you can make a profit. In
doing this you will gain discipline, learn lessons along the way and build confidence.
· Choose one person to mentor with and only work with their particular strategy. Even if their strategy
ultimately is not the strategy you use, the process will teach you valuable lessons about discipline and trading itself. What I have found is that any strategy you initially follow will ultimately turn into a set of rules that evolves as you become more proficient.
· Work on your discipline in any area of life by being consistent with an intention to become better at
whatever endeavor you choose. This is one of the best ways to train yourself in what will ultimately be the most important part of your trading.
Inch Worm
If your life activities are overwhelming for you, choose one thing a day that will get you towards your goal. If it is reading a chapter, listening to a CD or working on your business plan, each action multiplied by a month’s worth of actions are 30 steps closer to becoming a trader. This kind of discipline was what enabled me to complete eleven books. And this kind of discipline is what has enabled many of the people that I have worked with over the years to go from student to part-time trader to professional trader.
Conclusion
Taking action is the first step towards any journey. The next step is specializing by choosing what is viable and comfortable for you. Stick with this until something else emerges, and just by this process, you will know the next action to take.
Adrienne’s Calendar of Events
www.TradingOnTarget.com
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6/9-6/12
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Live Event |
Traders Expo – Los Angeles June 9 – 12 Adrienne presents Overcoming Sabotage Workshop
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Adrienne |
FREE |
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7/24 |
Online Event |
Adrienne’s Master Class $500 – Ask about early enrollment special $300 |
Adrienne |
$500 |
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8/7-8/8 |
Live Seminar |
Top Performance Seminar * Call now – 919-851-8288 |
Adrienne |
$2,500 * |
Go to www.TradingOnTarget.com or email: Adrienne@TradingOnTarget.com for more information
* Ask for early enrollment special
Horizons AlphaPro Public Presentations
Discover the Advantages of Actively Managed ETFs
Markham, Ontario
Hilton Suites Toronto/Markham Conference Centre & Spa
May 17, 2010 – 7:00pm – 8:30pm
Click here to register for FREE
Discover the Advantages of Actively Managed ETFs
Oakville, Ontario
Glen Abbey Golf Club
May 18, 2010 – 7:00pm – 8:30pm
Click here to register for FREE
Discover the Advantages of Actively Managed ETFs
Toronto, Ontario
Four Seasons Hotel
May 19, 2010 – 7:00pm – 8:30pm
Click here to register for FREE
Brooke Thackray comments on the Horizons AlphaPro Seasonal Rotation Fund at these presentations.
Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide
Tech Talk frequently mentions Brooke Thackray and his book entitled, “Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide”. The book summarizes attractive seasonal trades that are available during the year. The book can be purchased directly at Amazon.ca and Amazon.com. Following are links to these book stores:
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don Vialoux is a research analyst for JovInvestment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the author and are not necessarily the views of JovInvestment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by JovInvestment Management Inc
HAP Seasonal Rotation E.T.F. HAC $10.63 May 10 2010
· High 10.67
· Low 10.62
· Bid 10.64×2 lots
· Ask 10.75×20 lots
· Volume 76,039
· Open 10.65
· Close 10.63
· 52-week High 10.91 on Apr 14
· 52-week Low 9.44 on Feb 5
· Beta 2.25
· Net Asset Value per unit: $10.62
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Discussions from the Tech Talk Forum:
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May 11th, 2010 at 7:21 am
“The way to make money in the stock market is to buy a stock. Then, when it goes up, sell it. If it’s not going to go up, don’t buy it!”
Will Rogers (4 November 1879 – 15 August 1935) American humorist and entertainer;
May 11th, 2010 at 9:43 am
Speaking of gold, Is that a bullish bowl, or teacup pattern forming on the charts?
May 11th, 2010 at 1:16 pm
Maybius, yes it could be a bowl . . . also an inverse head and shoulders is there which is bullish too.
However, when it reaches near the high where it hit before then it needs to punch through and go higher. Otherwise, a double top can develop, and that is bearish, the price may go down again. If that happens then wait for a buying opportunity.
Season for gold begins near the end of July. Seasonality Investing considers the fundamentals and technical analysis and the seasonality . . . two should be in your favour . . . I prefer all three the way things are going now.
Things can change seemingly overnight, as we have seen the past two years or so. I think Gold is heading higher, but I could be wrong saying that now . . . likely right if I say it later.
May 11th, 2010 at 1:42 pm
DON
Above -I think you mean $23 and not “Target on General Electric is $73.”??
Greg
May 11th, 2010 at 3:38 pm
Don: We have $Gold with an RSI overbought at 75, crossed a resitance point of 1227 & held there and the MACD trending higher with no signs of crossing over. What is your prognosis? Still able to go higher even though overbought? Thanks
May 11th, 2010 at 6:13 pm
I will buy hbu.to in fall when MACD will give a buy signal .
May 11th, 2010 at 7:30 pm
Hello Don,
Can you please comment on the seasonality for Silver and whether it is time to exit SLV yet ?
Thanks,
KC
May 12th, 2010 at 11:12 am
Thanks, Greg DS. Will correct typo.
May 12th, 2010 at 11:13 am
Hi KC. A picture is worth a thousand words. Click on http://www.equityclock.com. Click on Charts. Click on Silver.