Comments on: Tech Talk for Thursday July 29th 2010

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 21:22:50 +0000

Hi Doug. Technicals on sugar remain positive, but the period of seasonal strength is ending. Best to watch momentum indicators closely and take profits at the earliest signs of a peak (e.g. Stochastics falling below 80% and/or RSI falling below 70%).

By: Don Vialoux

Don Vialoux — Fri, 30 Jul 2010 21:19:35 +0000

Hi Heinz S. Percent figures on the side of a seasonality chart are not relevant. The key is the trend at any particular momentum on the chart as well as the magnitude of the change.

By: Doug

Doug — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 20:52:29 +0000

Ron:
Thank you for the good advice.

DOUG

By: Roy

Roy — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 19:55:21 +0000

Hi
Anyone care to suggest an Agriculture stock with the best looking chart?
Thanks

By: Ron/BC

Ron/BC — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 18:48:41 +0000

Doug: You don’t have to decide to sell your SGG. You can just place a trailing stop at reasonable distance below price. At some point in a sell off it will get filled and you’ll be out. There is price resistance at 55 as that is a Fib 38.2% retrace pt and the June/09 highs resistance. Draw a line across 55 on the chart and you can see the price action at this level. Next resistance is major at 60-61. Draw a line across that and you’ll see what I’m referring to. That was major support in the last few months of 2009 and broke down and is now major resistance. It’s also a Fib 50% retrace pt resistance as well. Don’t see any negative divergences on any of many oscillators yet on these new rally highs. But for now 55 is price resistance so must clear and hold 55 on the close to suggest a rally towards 60.

By: Doug

Doug — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 17:23:28 +0000

Hello Don:
Thank you for your suggestion regarding SGG (Sugar ETN). I know we are very near the end of it’s seasonality. However, given the late start this year, will we see the season linger for a few more weeks?

It has had a fantastic run, a big pop today! I did take some profit on the run up to $54.50. Do you see further upside. Or, what about a move into Imperial Sugar, or an agriculture ETF?

Any advice from anyone is welcome.

Thank you.

By: Heinz S

Heinz S — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 13:45:25 +0000

Hello Don,
Thank you for this report. Please help me with the left-hand scale for today’s Potash Corp seasonality chart. It is not likely the mean monthly price rise ? Thank you.

By: Amelia

Amelia — Thu, 29 Jul 2010 11:41:20 +0000

Thanks for the comparison of XIU and HEW.
For the part of my portfolio that is managed I use mutual funds (international, small cap, precious metals) sector ETFs or sector leading stocks and invest in a fundamental/seasonal/technical basis as explained on this site OR just simply buy HAC which is really proving itself relative to this index.

Just look at a chart of HAC compared with XIU on the same chart. In six months HAC has a return just over 10% while XIU has a return just under 4%.