Pre-opening Comments for Friday September 10th
U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 index futures are up 3 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are trading higher in anticipation of President Obama’s speech on the economy scheduled at 11:00 AM EDT. He also is expected to announce the names of new members on his economic policy team.
Economic news from Canada was encouraging. Consensus for August employment was a gain of 25,000-30,000. Actual was a gain of 35,800. Canada’s unemployment rate increased from 8.0% to 8.1% mainly because more people entered the employment market. The Canadian Dollar added 0.4 cents U.S. on the news.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture released a crop report showing expected grain production for the current crop year. The report was mildly bullish for corn and mildly bearish for wheat and soybeans.
Nokia added 4% after announcing the name of its new CEO. He is Stephen Elop, a Canadian.
Lululemon added 9% after reporting higher than consensus second quarter earnings.
Cisco was unchanged after RBC Capital downgraded the stock from Top Pick to Outperform.
Pan American Silver was unchanged after RBC Capital upgraded the stock from Sector Perform to Outperform.
Texas Instruments slipped 1% after the company narrowed its third quarter guidance.
Technical Action Yesterday
Technical action by S&P 500 stocks remained bullish. Fourteen stocks broke resistance (Apple, American Electric Power, Duke Energy, Exelon, Humana, Invesco, Johnson & Johnson, Metro PCS Communications, Pfizer, Rockwell Automation, Stanley Black & Decker, Tyson Foods and Varian Medical) and one stock broke support (MasterCard). The Up/Down ratio increased from 0.85 to (198/221=) 0.90.
Technical action by TSX Composite stocks was quietly bullish. Three stocks broke resistance (Cogeco Cable, Major Drilling and Methanex) and none broke support. The Up/Down ratio increased from 1.87 to (121/62=) 1.95.
Interesting Charts
High yielding utility and health care stocks were notable on the list of S&P 500 stocks breaking resistance yesterday.
An Update on the Biotech Sector
Thackray’s 2010 Investor’s Guide notes that the biotech sector on average has a period of seasonal strength from June 23rd to September 13th. This year, technical indicators recorded a buy signal in the first week in July. The seasonal trade has been profitable once again this year. When should profit taking in the sector occur? The answer: not yet! Short term momentum indicators currently are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Preferred strategy is to retain positions until technical sell signals appear.
The bonus this year was news of a pending takeover of Genzyme by Sanofi Aventis. Negotiations continue. The latest news is that Sanofi Aventis is unwilling to raise its $18 billion offer above $69 per share. Yet, the stock continues to trade above $69. Significance of the takeover is an expected partial return of funds into the biotech sector when the deal is done. In addition, valuations in the sector have been raised.
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Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don Vialoux is a research analyst for JovInvestment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the author and are not necessarily the views of JovInvestment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by JovInvestment Management Inc
HAC Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC $11.09 September 9th 2010
· Open 11.08
· Close 11.09 (Down $0.01)
· High 11.10
· Low 11.05
· Bid 11.05 x61
· Ask 11.09 x65
· Volume 12,233
· 52-week High 11.37 06/03
· 52-week Low 9.44 02/05
· Beta 2.25
· Net Asset Value per unit: $11.05 (Down $0.02)
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September 10th, 2010 at 7:45 am
Hi DV:
What did you think of the price action in GDX yesterday? Is the seasonal trade ending early?
September 10th, 2010 at 8:10 am
Hello Don,
1. What is the seasonal trade for the Canadian gold miners index (ie XGD Toronto) ?
2. Have you worked out the seasonal trade for Canadian REITs ?
Thanks very much.
September 10th, 2010 at 9:44 am
I have had the same question about REITs as well. Any comments would be much appreciated. Thanks!
September 10th, 2010 at 9:51 am
Don,
With all of this better than expected bad news, will September still see a seasonal drop consistent with previous mid-term election years?
September 10th, 2010 at 11:34 am
EFL is doing great today!
September 10th, 2010 at 1:03 pm
Lin: EFL-T was one of Ron Meisels top pick Wednesday on Market Call Tonight. It jumped yesterday and again today.
He also picked RIC-T. Look at what that did yesterday and today, and note volume.
September 10th, 2010 at 1:20 pm
Glenn: Thank you very much for the comment. I have got both of them in the basket. Thinking add more when it break out. I had RBI.IMAX form Ron Mesiels’news letter last year. It had a great ran.
September 10th, 2010 at 5:44 pm
Lin – Excellent! You got a good basket going there.
September 10th, 2010 at 7:26 pm
Glenn: Thanks. Happy hunting!
September 13th, 2010 at 7:51 am
Glenn.
As much as I respect Ron Meisels is not RIC looking a little overbought and in need of a correction? My knowledge of TA is a little limited. Can anyone offer a comment on the chart of RIC?