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Editor’s Note: Next Tech Talk report is released o0n Thursday. Mr. Vialoux is in Montreal until late Tuesday.
Pre-opening Comments for Monday October 17th
U.S. equity index futures are mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 2 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures were up 5 points in overnight trade on hopes for a resolution of the European sovereign debt crisis, but settled lower following cautious comments from Angela Merkel.
Index futures eased lower following release of the October Empire Manufacturing Index at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was -4.0 versus -8.8 in September. Actual was -8.5.
Third quarter earnings reports started to flow in volume this morning. Halliburton and Citigroup reported higher than consensus earnings estimates. Hasbro and Wells Fargo reported lower than consensus earnings estimates.
Kinder Morgan has agreed to purchase El Paso in a cash, stock and debt deal worth $38 billion. Value of the deal for El Paso shareholders is estimated at $26.87 per share.
Alcoa eased $0.06 to $10.20 after First Global downgraded the stock from Market Perform to Under Perform.
Procter & Gamble is expected to open higher after BMO Capital upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform. Target was raised from $71 to $75.
Caterpillar improved $0.90 to $84.99 after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. Target was raised from $92 to $98.
Technical Watch
Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSEPG) – $64.89 is expected to open higher after BMO Capital upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the beginning of April. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher, but are approaching overbought levels. Resistance is at $67.17. Seasonal influences currently are positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness to its 200 day moving average currently at $63.20.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/clip_image00119.png "clip_image001[1]")
The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image326.png "clip_image002[1]")
Caterpillar, Inc. (NYSE:CAT) – $84.99 added 1.1% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. The stock has a negative technical profile with improving prospects. Intermediate trend is down and the stock trades below its 200 day moving average. However, the stock moved above its 50 day moving average on Friday and strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive at the beginning of October. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher, but already are approaching overbought levels. Support is at $67.54. Seasonal influences have just turned positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate on weakness closer to support.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/clip_image00313.png "clip_image003[1]")
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) Seasonal Chart
Hasbro, Inc (NYSE:HAS) – $34.48 weakened 0.7% after reporting lower than expected third quarter earnings. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since last November. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher, but are approaching overbought levels. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.
![clip_image005[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2011/10/clip_image00519.png "clip_image005[1]")
Economic News This Week
The October Empire Manufacturing Index to be released on Monday at 8:30 AM EDT is expected to improve to -4.0 from -8.82 in September
September Industrial Production to be released on Monday at 9:15 AM EDT is expected to increase 0.2% versus a 0.2% gain in August. September Capacity Utilization is expected to increase to 77.5% from 77.4% in August.
September Producer Prices to be released on Tuesday at 8:30 AM EDT are expected to increase 0.2% versus no change in August. Core PPI is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.1% in August.
September Consumer Prices to be released on Wednesday at 8:30 AM EDT is expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.4% in August. Core CPI is expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.2% in August.
September Housing Starts to be released on Wednesday at 8:30 AM EDT are expected to increase to 595,000 from 571,000 in August. September Building Permits are expected to slip to 610,000 from 620,000 in August.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released on Thursday at 8:30 AM EDT are expected to remain unchanged at 404,000.
September Existing Home Sales to be released on Thursday at 10:00 AM EDT are expected to slip to 4.94 million from 5.03 million in August.
The October Philadelphia Fed Index to be released on Thursday at 10:00 AM EDT is expected to improve to -9.6 from -17.5 in September.
September Leading Economic Indicators to be released on Thursday at 10:00 AM EDT are expected to increase 0.3% versus a gain of 0.3% in August.
Canadian September Consumer Prices to be released at 7:00 AM EDT on Friday are expected to increase 0.1% versus a 0.2% gain in August.
Earnings News This Week
Monday sees Charles Schwab, Citigroup, Halliburton and Wells Fargo.
Tuesday sees Apple, Bank of America, Coca Cola, CSX, Goldman Sachs, Harley Davidson, Johnson & Johnson, State Street and Yahoo.
Wednesday sees American Express, Blackrock, Morgan Stanley and Freeport McMoran
Thursday sees AT&T, Celestica, Chubb, Eli Lilly, Encana, Ingersoll Rand, Microsoft, Nokia, Nucor, Shaw Communications, Union Pacific.
Friday sees General Electric, Honeywell, McDonalds, Precision Drilling, Schlumberger and Verizon.
Equity Trends
The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. the Up/Down ratio) rose last week from 0.17 to (131/304=) 0.43. The ratio continues to recover from an intermediate oversold level.
Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks advanced from 29.00% to 55.00% last week and moved above its 15 day moving average. The Index continues to recover from an oversold level.
The Up/Down ratio for TSX Composite stocks increased last week from 0.33 to (60/168=) 0.36. The ratio continues to recover from an intermediate oversold level.
Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks increased last week from 34.24% to 41.09% and moved above its 15 day moving average. The Index continues to recover from an intermediate oversold level.
The S&P 500 Index gained 69.12 points (5.98%) last week on declining volume. Intermediate trend is down. The Index moved above its 50 day moving average last week, but remains below its 200 day moving average. Support is at its October 4th low at1074.77. Gain since its October 4th low is 13.9%. Resistance is at 1,230.71. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above its 50 day moving average jumped from 39.80% to 78.80% last week Percent already is overbought and at a level where a peak is likely. However, technical signs of a peak have yet to appear.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week from 23.00% to 32.60%. Percent continues to recover from intermediate oversold levels.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 541.37 points (4.88%) last week on declining volume. The Average has gained 11.9% from its low on October 4th. Intermediate trend is down. The Average moved above its 50 day moving average last week, but remains below its 200 day moving averages. Support is at 10,404.49. Resistance is at 11,716.84. Short term momentum indicators continue to trend higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 stocks is positive, but is showing early signs of change.
Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks jumped last week from 26.67% to 60.00% and moved above its 15 day moving average. The Index is trending higher and already is approaching an intermediate oversold level.
Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks increased last week from 25.99% to 36.99% and moved above its 15 day moving average. The Index is trending higher from an intermediate oversold level.
The NASDAQ Composite Index gained 188.50 points (7.60%) last week on declining volume. Gain from its October 4th low is 16.0%. Intermediate trend changed from down to neutral when the Index broke resistance at 2,643.37. Next resistance is at 2887.75. The Index moved above its 50 day moving average last week, but remains below its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Seasonal influences turned positive last week.
The Russell 2000 Index gained 56.25 points (8.57%) last week. Gain since its October 4th low is 18.4%. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at 601.71 and resistance is at 737.64. The Index moved above its 50 day moving average last week, but remains below its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is changing from down to at least neutral.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average added 331.91 points (7.12%) on declining volume last week. Gain since its October 4th low is 18.8%. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at 3,950.66. Resistance is at 4,778.76. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has turned from negative to at least neutral. Seasonal influences turned positive last week.
The TSX Composite Index gained 493.37 points (4.26%) last week on declining volume. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at 10,848.19. Resistance is at 12,798.53. The Index trades below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week from 19.46% to 44.57%. Percent is recovering from an intermediate oversold level and is trending higher.
Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week from 21.79% to 29.84%. Percent is recovering from an intermediate oversold level.
The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index improved 44.00 points (1.04%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at 3,829.40. Resistance is at 4,425.40. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
The Nikkei Average added 128.09 points (1.49%) last week. Intermediate trend is neutral. The Index trades below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Support is at its post-tsunami low at 8,227.63. Resistance is at 10,207.91. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
The Shanghai Composite Index gained 72.15 points (3.06%) last week following “Golden week” when Chinese markets were closed. Intermediate trend is down. The Index trades below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
The London FT Index gained 162.96 points (3.07%) and the Frankfurt DAX Index added 291.50 points (4.89%) last week in anticipation of a settlement of the European sovereign debt crisis. Both indices moved above their 50 day moving average and short term resistance levels.
The Athens Index added 31.22 points (4.19%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. The Index trades well below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Currencies
The U.S.Dollar Index fell 2.11 last week. The Index dropped to the top of a previous trading range where support is expected to emerge. Its 50 and 200 day moving averages near 76.00 also are likely support levels. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Stochastics already are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.
The Euro gained 4.99 last week. It has recovered to the bottom of a previous trading range where resistance is likely to emerge. Its 50 day moving average at 139.36 and 200 day moving average at 140.46 also likely will act as resistance levels. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
The Canadian Dollar gained 2.79 cents U.S. last week. Current intermediate trend is down. The Dollar is approaching an overhead resistance level near par. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
The Japanese Yen eased 0.85 last week. It remains in a two month trading range between 128.46 and 131.64. Intermediate trend remains up. Short term momentum indicators have declined from overbought levels to neutral.
Commodities
The CRB Index gained 10.13 points (3.34%) last week. The Index has recovered to the bottom of a previous trading range where resistance is likely. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
Gasoline gained another $0.19 per gallon (7.17%) last week. Resistance exists at $2.92. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
Crude Oil gained another $4.50 per barrel (5.44%) last week. Crude tracked above its 50 day moving average last week and is moving toward resistance at $90.52. Support is at $75.71. Intermediate trend remains down. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
Natural Gas popped $0.15 on Friday. For the week, it gained $0.21 per MBtu (6.03%). Short term momentum indicators are starting to recover from oversold levels.
Gold gained another $38.20 U.S. per ounce (2.35%) last week on weakness in the U.S.Dollar. Short term momentum indicators continue to trend higher. Stochastics already are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Support is at 1,535.00. Resistance is at its all-time high at 1,923.70. Seasonal influences turn positive once again near the end of October
The Gold Bug Index added 30.28 points (5.70%) last week. The Index moved above its 50 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels. The Index has started to outperform gold, an encouraging technical sign for both.
Ditto for the TSX Gold Index!
Silver gained another $0.94 per ounce (3.01%) last week. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels. Strength relative to gold remains negative, but showing early signs of reversing.
Platinum gained $55.70 per ounce (3.70%) last week. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels. Strength relative to gold remains negative.
The grain ETN added $2.96 (6.84%) last week. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher after reaching deeply oversold levels. ‘Tis the season for grain prices to move higher!
The Agriculture ETF gained $4.13 (9.33%) last week. The fertilizer ETF gained $1.04 (8.43%). Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. ‘Tis the season for the sector and the subsector to move higher!
Copper added another $0.14 (4.26%) last week. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher.
Lumber gained $1.69 last week. Seasonal influences turned positive last week.
Interest Rates
The yield on 10 year Treasuries increased last week by 16 basis points last week despite “Operation Twist”. Signs of an intermediate bottom have appeared. Yield moved above its 50 day moving average last week. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher.
Conversely, the long term Treasury ETF fell $4.29 last week.
Other Issues
The VIX Index fell 7.96 (22.0%) last week. It fell below a key support level at 30.16 on Friday, an indication that investor fears have been abated. The break below support also confirms that the “risk off” trade officially peaked on August 8th.
Macro issues will continue to influence equity markets this week. Last week equity markets moved higher in anticipation of a deal on European sovereign debt expected to be reached in principal over the weekend at the G20 finance ministers meeting. A deal is expected to be finalized when the first ministers meet on October 23rd. Tech Talk is skeptical. Rumored terms of a deal or no deal could move equity markets significantly this week, one way or the other. Events related to Iran are a possible shadow issue.
Third quarter reports become a focus this week. Results released to date and responses to results have been mixed at best. Google popped on blow out results, Alcoa, JP Morgan and Mattel moved lower after reporting less than consensus earnings. Pepsico moved higher after beating consensus estimates, but weakened thereafter. Weakness in Pepsico, Alcoa, JP Morgan and Mattel following the immediate response to results is related to a subsequent reduction in fourth quarter estimates by analysts. Key companies reporting this week are in the Financial Services and Technology sectors. Delayed weakness following release of third quarter results is an annual recurring event. Brooke Thackray’s says “Mind the gap” in the second half of October. If equity prices start to move higher on rising volume near the end of the month after most of the quarterly results by major companies are released, the stage is set for an important stock market recovery lasting until at least early January.
Economic news could help equity markets this week. Month-over-month economic data for October is expected to turn positive over exceptionally weak data reported in September. A focus this week is on the Empire State Manufacturing Index on Monday and, more importantly, the Philadelphia Fed Index on Thursday.
Short term momentum indicators are overbought for a wide variety of equity markets, commodities and sectors. Intermediate technical indicators continue to recover from oversold levels.
Seasonal influences for a wide variety of economically sensitive sectors recently turned positive.
Technical signs of an intermediate peak in long term Treasury bond prices have emerged.
The Bottom Line
Technical, fundamental and seasonal influences point to another volatile period for equity markets around the world this week. Economically sensitive sectors are following their seasonal patterns. However, most currently are short term overbought after huge moves since October 4th Preferred strategy is to accumulate economically sensitive equities and related ETFs on short term weakness, particularly if they benefit from favourable seasonal influences.
Tom Rogers’ Weekly Elliott Wave Blog
http://www.tomrogers.net/signpost.htm
FP Trading Desk Headlines
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Are U.S. equities really that cheap”? Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/10/14/are-u-s-equities-really-that-cheap/
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Market bottom not in place: Phases & Cycles”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2011/10/14/market-bottom-not-in-place-phasescycles/#more-100826
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The Financial Philosopher |
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Ken Norquay, CMT |
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Partner, CastleMoore Inc. |
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Apple Season |
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October 13, 2011 |
What marvellous creatures we investors are: so different and yet so much the same. Consider the pickle barrel that Steve Jobs and Jim Balsillie were in before Jobs’ untimely death: Jobs was the Chairman of Apple Inc. (AAPL), Balsillie of Research in Motion (RIMM). Both were/are billionaires because of their ownership of industry leading high-tech firms. Since mid-2008, Jobs had seen his AAPL stock rise from under $165 per share to over $400 per share. Balsillie saw his RIMM drop from almost $150 to under $22 in August 2011. (These prices are all in US dollars.) Jobs got way richer at the same time that Balsillie got way less rich. Yet both are way richer than most readers of this article.
Big institutional investors like pension plans and mutual funds might own shares of both AAPL and RIMM — and their holdings have been affected by the rise and fall of these two high-tech giants. Although the professional decision-makers for these mega-investors may not personally own the shares, they participated in the rise and fall of these two high-tech stocks. Their decisions to buy or sell their clients’ shares affect the rise and fall of AAPL and RIMM share prices — and they also affect the rise and fall of the financial net worth of Jobs and Balsillie.
Then there are the ordinary investors who may own shares of AAPL or RIMM. Most of us can buy or sell our whole position without affecting Jobs’ or Balsillie’s net worth at all.
Isn’t it fascinating how different we all are with respect to AAPL’s rise and RIMM’s fall? Different, yet somehow the same. Jobs and Balsillie were both Chairman of the Board and significant shareholders of their respective companies. One is a hero, the other somewhat less than a hero. One became a lot richer than he was, one somewhat less rich.
The mega-money portfolio managers are in the most interesting predicament. Imagine sitting at their computer screens, managing multi-billions. Imagine that, in June 2008, you managed a huge portfolio of high-tech stocks, and that your clients had approximately equal portions of RIMM and AAPL. Now, because of the rise and fall of these two giants, your clients have 20 times as much AAPL as RIMM. As the manager of these mega-funds, what should you do?
One possibility is to re-adjust your holdings so you have equal amounts again. In this case, you would sell a few gigs of AAPL and use the proceeds to buy RIMM. They call this ‘rebalancing’: it’s the kind of thing value investors do when one stock runs way too high and the other way too low. The mega-money managers realize that, years from now, AAPL might not be the hot-stock darling it is today, and RIMM might not be the ugly sister. Because their positions are so big, the mega-bucks managers can’t really sell out of the market altogether. So they adjust the percentages of their holdings, maintaining a diversified portfolio at all times. It’s the prudent thing to do.
And what about you? What should you do? Most professional advisors encourage small investors to behave like large investors. Ordinary investors are encouraged to own large, diverse portfolios and to let the professional mega-managers run them. That’s what mutual funds are all about: small investors trying to behave like big investors.
But that is a serious error.
In my investing book, Beyond the Bull, I encourage readers to develop their own way of investing and to take advantage of their edge. Small investors have one huge advantage over mega-money: liquidity. We can buy or sell RIMM or AAPL without affecting the price at all. So, why would we have owned a single share of RIMM since June 2008? Why not just sell out and be done with it? Why not just own AAPL and nothing else, and get richer, as Steve Jobs did? In fact, why would we ever own any investment that is not in an up-trend? Why should we behave like mega-money at all?
We are all the same, yet so different. If we are high-tech geniuses, we should start a high-tech company and get rich like Jobs and Balsillie. If we love the markets, we should get a high-priced job with a mega-money pension fund manager and prudently rebalance our way to the top of the heap. And if we are an ordinary investor, we should figure out how to tell an up-trend from a down-trend. Whichever of these three we pick, we can be successful in the world of money.
To order your copy of Beyond the Bull and the Five Levels of Investor Consciousness CD, or to sign up for Ken’s free monthly webinar, visit www.gobeyondthebull.com (Bullmanship Code = SS32).
This article and others by Ken are available at http://kennorquay.blogspot.com.
Contact Ken directly at ken@castlemoore.com.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/\
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Canfor Corporation (TSE:CFP) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for JovInvestment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of JovInvestment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by JovInvestment Management Inc
HAP Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC October 14th 2011
· Open 12.61
· Close 12.59 (Up $0.09)
· High 12.61
· Low 12.53
· Bid 12.55×0
· Ask 12.62×0
· Volume 30,708
· 52-week High 12.7510/12
· 52-week Low 10.0106/30
· Beta 2.328
· Net Asset Value per Unit: $12.47 (Up $0.05 to an all time high)
CSTA Annual Conference
September 20-21st
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: cat, HAS, PG
October 17th, 2011 at 9:58 am
Question to the board (Tony, Eve, mick/inv, whoever is reading and can comment). Would it be prudent to cover AMZN short today (I shorted last Friday at $246.38) or is it a double top pattern in the making? Also, Eve mentioned that it’s likely to pull back more this week before options expiration on Friday.
October 17th, 2011 at 10:04 am
Slava
I still think you should put in a stop, somewhere around the 245 to 249 range. Who knows what will happen with the market the next few days.
October 17th, 2011 at 10:10 am
Slava,
No don,t cover yet wait till Wednesday.
I got out of sina at 92.87 this morning.
had impression it would of pop this morning before it would have fallen.
so not bad a 22+$ profit in less than three weeks.
October 17th, 2011 at 10:17 am
Thanks Tony. I’m just worried to be carrying two large (for me) short positions. CMG is continuing to go up (as you predicted).
I’m calling ScotiaItrade to find out why Buy on Stop is not one of the order options on the screen.
October 17th, 2011 at 10:20 am
for those waiting for a bounce in tza,
the time is now.
October 17th, 2011 at 10:30 am
tony
Yes, making some $ back on TZA…. are you suggesting selling into this bounce?
ditto on SPXU ?
October 17th, 2011 at 10:32 am
hi tawny
no not now just as was saying last week we should be going lower for the time being see how it plays out by wednesday pm.
October 17th, 2011 at 10:36 am
tony,
love ya and thanks!
October 17th, 2011 at 10:48 am
oops mean the markets should be heading lower, which is good for tza spxu
look at google with its stellar quarter since it hit 600 its trending lower.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:14 am
Tawny:
Good for you.
I hedged on friday with hxd.
Added to inverse ETF positions this am for extra $, but will exit my additional inverse ETF positions depending on pivot targets and other s/r targets…could be intraday or in a few days as Tony suggests.
Good luck.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:16 am
CFP.TO holding up well, but notice the decreasing volume as the price has gone up. Don V featured it today as well.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:22 am
hi ron/bc:
welcome back to your home site. i and many others have missed your commentaries and humour.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:23 am
Ron/BC
Waht is your take for RIM.To.
Is is now good for SHORT?
Thanks
October 17th, 2011 at 11:29 am
Tawny: Have you sold TZA. Tony said not to sell, but it keeps moving down..up, very volatile. Thanks and have a profitable day.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:44 am
Kay
I have not sold yet. S&P moving back up too. I will not be here to nurture my portfolio tomorrow so I need to feel comfortable at the end of the day.
Just caught some European Market News on CNBC and markets are down and apparently a lot of nervousness with the G20 decisions . I think it is good to watch what is happening in Europe too.
Bank of America and GS report tomorrow – any one foresee how market is likely to act?
Tech side Apple and Yahoo… could be positive for Tech Market.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:46 am
Nirmal
Ron/BC indicated yesterday that he does not have time to answer questions during the day.. perhaps if we all lay off questioning him so much he will make an appearance more often.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:51 am
Ron/AB
It will take further movement down for me to breakeven with my SPXU and TAZ.
I will not be at computer tomorrow. Sooo, if you have an indication with your pivots,etc. please let me know your thoughts ?? Thanks
October 17th, 2011 at 12:04 pm
Ron/AB
From your Post #239 on the weekend : “Most inexperienced traders would be better off if they were not trading at all until an uptrend is established.”
I have to agree with this statement. I spent a great deal of time late last night going over the weekend posts. I have cut and pasted a great deal of good information but unfortunately I am way too tired these days to study at this time.
I really wish I had stayed out of the market from May – Nov. Jerry Minton of Alpha recently published a document showing 10 year data of being in the S&P MidCap 400 from Nov. 1 to May 31 and the in Treasury Bond Index rest of year. Looks good and simple. Maybe this is the kind of thing I should do at this stage of my life. Of course I would have to have an e quivalent of S&P 400 for the TSX, possibly the mid cap also…. just thinking out loud
October 17th, 2011 at 12:04 pm
Tony: At your convience, could you please options and see where TZA is going. Thanks. I bought IVN sometimeago, 500 falling like a rocket.
October 17th, 2011 at 12:05 pm
Tony: should say “check options”
October 17th, 2011 at 12:08 pm
Tawny:
re. SPXU
Short term targets are 17.37 (9ma) 17.57 (monthly s1 pivot).
Daily pivot targets for today starting at 15.75 which was last close, are:
15.75, 15.94, 16.04, 16.13, 16.32, 16.51, 16.80, 17.08, 17.37, 17.65
October 17th, 2011 at 12:15 pm
Ron/AB
If and when you have a minute could you please post link to chart for SPXU per your comment #21. Perhaps I can learn something, if I can un-cross my eyes.
October 17th, 2011 at 12:23 pm
Tawny: Any market is good to make money if you are on the right side. Here is an updated email..chart missing here, you can check the site as well.
DAX, EWG and Siemens
The question is are we in wave 4 of 1, with 5 still to go to complete wave 1 (in black), or did we in fact already complete the entire wave 1 and are now in wave 2 (in blue)? Certainly the black interpretation is the more elegant one, but fortunately it does not matter all that much at this point as wave 3 was the lion’s share of the drop anyway so the proportion of either wave 4 of 1 or wave 2 are not that different. We have already retraced about 40% and are at a wave 4 level, a move to about 62% would not be negligible but certainly not tradeable for most of us. That is why we recommended getting out of longs the other day.
This market is like a casino and roulette is played without the numbers, just black and red and as a result it is a binary proposition, that cannot be controlled too well . This risk-on , risk-off approach does not leave much for error. You should stay short for the next few months as this market has a long way to go. In terms getting short again , or more so, the 62% retracement level is as good a spot as any, but we may not even get there.
October 17th, 2011 at 12:25 pm
Tawny:
Here is the chart I looked at. To calculate the daily pivots, look at the daily chart in the The Uptrend to get yesterdays HLCO (high, low, close, open) values and plug them into the pivot calculator at:
http://www.pivotpointcalculator.com/
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPXU&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p06727743786
October 17th, 2011 at 12:25 pm
Index Volume:
I have a hard time being bullish in here about the markets when I see rising volumes on downdays and declining volumes on updays. This action points to a progressively weaker market… with a negative bias. When I see the reverse, I’ll be happy to be bullish. Until then, I don’t know…..
I read a lot of analyst reports saying that the last bottom we experienced was “IT” … however I won’t feel comfortable with a “bottom” until ALL stocks get crushed, INCLUDING defensive names. We haven’t seen that yet….
Who knows, we may get a seasonal bounce until early in the new year, then perhaps a continuation of the downward trend?…. but in here the macro stories have not been resolved….so why all the bullish sentiment all of a suddden? a futile and desperate hope that it is over? Does not make me feel comfortable.
All the focus on Greece is ridiculous…it is such a small economy…low single digit percentage…. why is it that nobody talks about California? one of the world’s largest economies, number 7 or 8 on a global scale… which is in worse shape than Greece?
October 17th, 2011 at 12:26 pm
Hi Kay,
This is option week so everything that happened until last friday will be undone.
you were asking Options on TZA.
today they are betting on the calls for price of tza to move higher
don’t expect for tza to move higher than 45 by the end of this week.
October 17th, 2011 at 12:36 pm
Eve, have you seen GMCR today? I’m glad I don’t own it today. I was away from the computer for the last hour so I need to investigate what caused it to drop 13% from in the last hour or so.
October 17th, 2011 at 12:42 pm
Tony: 45 is more than good for me. I won’t have access to computer part of Tuesday and Wednesday that is why I am trying to follow it so closely. You are wonderful, have a profitable one and thanks again.
October 17th, 2011 at 12:44 pm
Canuck2004
The last paragraph in point 24 – That’s a good question.
October 17th, 2011 at 12:45 pm
Hi Slava,
No, I haven’t opened my trading account today due to being sick today (cold, sore throat, cough, etc.) – I noticed last week though that GMCR had weakness in it – and when i looked to find out what was going on with it, I found info on some sort of litigation they were involved with – plus found out they were cutting the cost of their keurig machine – so, those could be potential reasons today for the further decline in it. Plus though, on the chart, there was a bear flag showing from last week and with this kind of a drop today, the bear flag is playing itself out to the “T”!
Thanks for pointing this out Slava
Eve
October 17th, 2011 at 12:48 pm
Canuck
I hear you,
A few weeks ago I Posted an interactive chat Bank lending ratio compared to GDP. and the countries that were the most in debt
The countries on this chart were Greece, Portugual, Spain Ireland, Italy, USA,England, Germany and France.
Ireland banks were lending as if they didn’t no how to spend the money. they sent a lot of money to, England and USA.
So if I were in the place of the gov I would have the Irish population investment secured and for the rest well I would have the gov foreclose the culprits and if they have a problem then well the BO Ireland would be collecting the debt payments.
but who am I to decide for a nation that is not mine? plus the G20 will think of something that the big banks told them that would be the best for their interest.
October 17th, 2011 at 12:49 pm
Hi Slava,
re GMCR:
there are SEVERAL articles on yahoo finance about why the drop today (they ALL state the SAME reason) – here’s just one of them from barron’s:
http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2011/10/17/einhorn-nails-green-mountain-in-110-slides/?mod=yahoobarrons
Eve
October 17th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
Wayne: Wanted to get your opinion of SCO, I`ve been waiting for it to come to support and it looks to be doing that today. MACD histogram bar has moved north today . I was thinking about taking a position on this because crude also has seemed to have hit the top the channel at $87. Are you taking a position today or tomorrow on SCO?
October 17th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
Eve, thanks, I saw that too. Why not CMG?..lol.. As it would have worked out much better for me. I just put a buy on stop on AMZN at $241.42 since I can’t watch the price continuously today – I’ll be in meetings most of the day. Too bad since it’s so volatile, I could have made some money from the intraday swings.
October 17th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
Eve: You prediction was absolute right, maybe the charts were telliing, but instead the market is saying its the G20 news. Congratulations. Hope you feel better to take advantage of the trades.
October 17th, 2011 at 12:56 pm
Kay,
And I taught you hated me because I was a bit a head of the curve. especially after reading comment 14,
If I were you I would put a vtso underneath so should it continue go higher than 45 you could gain from it.
October 17th, 2011 at 1:05 pm
Slava
as you asked last week about were gmcr was heading I told you not to be in before it hit 82$ well it seems by holdng out it paid off, staying out of it
as for cmg could be changing direction to the 280 range.
Amzn is heading to 220-225
October 17th, 2011 at 1:06 pm
Hi Canuck2004:
That’s just what I wrote too over the weekend re the rising prices BUT the drop in volume – NOT bullish!
I also wrote a few weeks ago that the “pain” hasn’t yet been felt ENOUGH by EVERYONE for the markets to have hit a true bottom – and that until EVERYONE feels that pain (meaning ALL stocks), then I doubt the bottom will have been put in yet!
I think too that we’ll have a rally into year end BUT that then in january will start the decline once more
Thanks for posting Canuck
Eve
October 17th, 2011 at 1:08 pm
Slava, there is a rule that states that if a stock reaches a 52 week high on Friday, buy it just before the close and sell on Monday night. It works most of the time but looks dubious this time for most of the market including AMZN.
I am not a day trader nor a swing trader but for what it’s worth, it seems too early to tell with AMZN. It could be a double top. This is the season for both tech and retail so is it just an off day before the next surge? The price poked through the upper Keltner on Friday and may account for the pullback today and with the 4 day EMA still holding – the uptrend is still intact. All that said, the volumes are not there and the volume indicators support this. And on top of that, the momentum indicators are overbought. That just about describes the whole market – investors are cautious and don’t know which way to go so they are sitting on their wallets.
Caution would suggest a tightening of your stops.
October 17th, 2011 at 1:09 pm
Tony: No, noooooo, never. I was just checking with Tawny because she contributes to “The Uptrend” and can see these buy/sell points, only for a second opinion. Tony, I have learned so much by buying TZA that its more than worth it as I mentioned before, your system is good, I am using it as well. Just to let you know bought some more this morning so very close to break even. I really do appreciate your help, sorry if post 14 hurt your feelings, wasn’t intended. Wish you a profitable trading day. I was more concerned because I would be away for part of Tue and Wed as mentioned.
October 17th, 2011 at 1:11 pm
Thanks Kay
Yes, markets just don’t go up and up and up – without taking a breather! And so many factors came together to tell us the markets were due to pull back this week – the factors were being right at a price resistance on the SPX, being overbought on stochastics and historically when the SPX gets to that level on stochastics, it doesn’t stay there long but instead comes down, having prices moving higher BUT volume NOT following (it was instead declining), this week being options expiration and most people thinking the rally is now here so they’d be buying calls the last 2 weeks, so those calls need to be trashed this week which means markets need to come down, plus other factors too I’m probably firgetting LOL – but nonetheless, the chart tells it all (stochastics, volume, price resistance). And that recipe spelled a coming pullback
Eve
October 17th, 2011 at 1:23 pm
Slava,
aapl options are trading puts a being bought as low 370 and calls sold as high as 510 there are highr and lower targets but this is where there is a change of sentiment.
so if aapl sends this one out of the ball park then their maybe hope for Amzn’s tablet
and since tomorrow aapl is coming out with their quarterly numbers then I would make sure I’m not holding amzn. or at least not all the position.
October 17th, 2011 at 1:29 pm
Eve: sorry to know you’re sick. I had fever & cough on n off last few weeks. Had tried ginger tea and sometimes it worked. You can get it from Loblaws and just put 1/2 cup of hot water, it’s spicy and sweet, not good taste but not hard to swallow. Give a try and take good care.
October 17th, 2011 at 1:35 pm
Hi Slava,
re AMZN:
Overbought on stochastics, close to overbought on keltner. From the looks of the chart, it should come down to support which is strong – and that would be around the mid keltner AND the 20 day MA AND a price support too – so, all of these are between $227 and $230. Mid kelt is at 228.84, 20 day MA is at $227.66, and there’s strong price support at $230,00, at $227, and at $228.00.
Hope this helps
Eve
October 17th, 2011 at 1:37 pm
Hi ue/tor,
Thank you so much for that tip!! I have lemon thriller tea from Loblaws and cammomille – but haven’t tried the ginger – I will definitely pick that up the next time I’m out shopping to have for when I get another cold/ sore throat, etc. – so, thank you ue/tor for that tip
I appreciate your kind words too
Eve
October 17th, 2011 at 1:40 pm
Hi Canuck2004,
Excellent observations!
We’re are still in the same volatile trading range since August.
Medium and longer term predictions for the market are really speculation at this point. We need to see the trading range broken (up or down) and with good volume for a confirmation of the market direction. Until then it’s still only a short term traders market.
Good to hear from you.
October 17th, 2011 at 1:43 pm
Eve, by the way, sorry you are not feeling well. Lot’s of tea with lemon and honey (or a couple of shots of Stoli and a hot sauna if you want to cure it the Russian way..lol).
Thanks for your thoughts on AMZN. My buy on stop order got filled at $241.42. I’m up about $500 since Friday so it’s okay. I’m afraid that tech stocks may have a pop up tomorrow if AAPL reports extra great earnings. So hard to tell. Preservation of capital is so important. I didn’t take my CMG profits when I had them so it taught me a lesson.
Why are gold stocks dropping like crazy? I just realized that I’m still holding Osisko mining in one of my accounts which I bought last week. It’s getting tougher to manage all of my holdings.
October 17th, 2011 at 1:45 pm
Eve: sorry to say that much not related to market. But…, lemon thriller tea and cammomille are cold material. For YIN and YAN, cold/hot theory, it’s better to take hot materials (ginger, garlic etc.) for winter cold. I used to give alotof ginger tea to my kids when they’re small. It worked.
October 17th, 2011 at 1:49 pm
Hi Slava,
The gold stocks are dropping in order to prepare for their seasonal period that starts at the beginning of Nov. You’ll find that ALL stocks drop like crazy JUST BEFORE they are supposed to rally in their upcoming seasonal period. Ags did this last year and this year and golds did this this past July and then ran up like crazy during their seasonal period of end of July to Sept, and banks did this last year, etc etc – they all act this way just before their seasonal period starts so that during their seasonal period, they can have a great run up in price!
Eve
October 17th, 2011 at 1:51 pm
PS Slava,
the golds did this too in 2010 and in 2009 too just before their seasonal runs that started at the end of july into sept and then again at the end of Oct/ beginning of Nov to around first week or 10 days of dec.
Eve
October 17th, 2011 at 2:04 pm
Tawny,
Re. #18
I agree with Kay in that you can make money in other markets other then an established uptrending market. However, it sounds as though you don’t really want to be actively trading and at your computer all of the time. In a sideways volatile market you definitely need to be actively trading. Even in an uptrending market given the very uncertain economic times we have now, I would not be a buy and hold investor. So some amount of monitoring positions is needed on at least a weekly basis. Preserving capital is most important. I think one could trade successfully and less actively if they followed Don and Brooke’s advice, stick to the seasonal periods of strength for long positions and maybe use weekly charts for monitoring. Or you could just buy HAC.
October 17th, 2011 at 2:05 pm
Tawny: I suggest you put a stop on TZA and SPXU, and then keep moving it up as price goes higher. If price reverses this week, then you will stop out and can buy again at a lower price or revert to a bull if we move higher. I have stops on my SPXU using pivots. I have a stop at $16.32, which is 50% between R1 (16.13) and R2 (16.51). Price is presently at $16.48. If it closes higher towards R3 at 16.70, then I will move the stop to 16.51. Although, it is a tight stop, it is better to be safe in this whacky market.
October 17th, 2011 at 2:07 pm
Slava,
Here is what I’ve noticed in the past when it comes to M&A.
When a company acquires takes over another company, the acquirer drops in price if market see great potential the drop will be between 5-25% but if the potential is bad or the investement is to big then they can bring you to the edge of a collapse.
TCK was on the brinks of collapse after an acquisition of 5B$, but the acquisition was good on the long run so price came back.
PZE dropped considerably back in 06 and still has problem climbing higher,
ABT bought a small eye care company and droped by about from low 50 to 45-46 and recovered even moved to below 60 before the 08 debacle.
And since OSK decide do an acquisition the way the company is behaving it was not the right time.
October 17th, 2011 at 2:08 pm
Hi ue/tor,
Oh ok – well, thank you so much for letting me know this info
I’ll let my sister-in-law know too as my nephews are sick too (they’re where i got this from) 
Thank you ue/tor
eve
October 17th, 2011 at 2:13 pm
All: Can anyone tell me where to find the “open” prices for shares at 9:30am? If I go to the TSX website, they show the open 15 minutes later at 9:15am. On my Level 2 screen, it does not show the open at 9:30, just the high / low, current / volume /etc. I need these numbers to look for set ups in daily gap trading. Thanks.
October 17th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
Hi Slava,
re AMZN:
I think if AAPL reports blow out numbers for their Ipad sales (which, they normally do), then I don’t think this will be a positive for AMZN as their new kindle called the KindleFire is now trying to compete with the Ipad – so, if AAPL shows their Ipads are being bought like crazy, then I think this may cause AMZN to drop in price. Guess we’ll see
Eve
October 17th, 2011 at 2:18 pm
Hi Ray – Kitchener. Check stockcharts.com or yahoo finance.
October 17th, 2011 at 2:19 pm
Ron/AB
I know that one can make money in down markets too which is why I am holding bear etfs. But, yes, I am spending way too much time at the computer – neglecting other household duties and I am over tired. I am largely in cash actually and just put some dollars to work. I have started buying some shares of HAC as well.
I think that
Ray-Kitchener
has an excellent recommendation, especially since I will not be in most of tomorrow.
I will put stop under SPXU….at $26.32.
Where would I put stop on TZA? I just do not have energy to start using charts at this time. So thanks if either of you could give me an idea on this.
October 17th, 2011 at 2:21 pm
Got this today in my email (from one of the free investment letters I subscribe to):
Graham Summers’ Weekly Market Forecast (Resistance Edition)
Traders have gunned the market higher over the last two weeks courtesy of:
Short covering
The Euro rally on French liquidity concerns
Rumors of yet another Euro bailout
Regarding #1, short interest on the NYSE was at March 2009 levels going into this rally. With this kind of short interest, even a small rally will become explosive as the shorts cover (buy stocks)… which sends the market higher… which in turn results in more shorts cover.
This same dynamic is playing out for large financial institutions in France resulting in #2. French banks are facing major short-turn funding shortages. As a result they are selling long positions and cover shorts to free up capital. Because of this, the Euro is rallying hard, just as the US Dollar did in 2008 when the US banking system was in collapse.
Because stocks are moving in lock-step with the Euro, the Euro move has pushed stocks higher in a big way.
Finally, regarding #3, it is obvious to anyone that the EU is completely out of ideas that will possibly work. The kick the can mentality is ending. I know Merkel and Sarkozy claim to be working on some great plan to fix things… but the reality is that if those countries do go for the leveraged EFSF then they will lose their AAA status… which comes with its own set of major problems.
Will France and Germany go “all in,” and choose to lose their AAA status to bailout Greece again? Hard to believe that will be the case. And we see reports emerging of Germany preparing for a Greek default and bondholders taking a 60% haircut.
It is literally a case of “pick your poison.” If German and France backstop Greece again with the leveraged EFSF, they will lose their AAA statuses and we’ll see a bloodbath in Europe. If they don’t backstop with the leveraged EFSF, we’ll see a bloodbath in Europe.
With that in mind, the Euro is coming up against major resistance at 140.
We’re facing a quick correction here to 135 if not 130 in short order. Long-term I expect we’ll see Greece default followed by a domino effect in which all bankrupt European nations restructure. When this occurs the Euro will break below the 2010 lows of 118.
In terms of stocks, we’ve been in a large trading range between 1,125 and 1,220 on the S&P 500. We’re now testing the upper end of this range, which sets us up for a return to the low end of the range
Given the economic backdrop in the US and Europe, I remain convinced we’re breaking out of this range to the low side. I’ve warned to get defensive for over a month now. This week looks to be a good time to add to shorts as I expect we’re going to likely see a top this week as earnings season kicks into higher gear and the usual options expiration nonsense ends.
However, larger picture, I believe we’re facing systemic risk… as in another 2008 event. The most likely culprit for this will be Europe, which is literally on the ledge of a cliff.
Indeed, the facts remain that Greece will default. End of story. Greece is broke. The market knows this which is why it’s pricing a Greek default at 100%.
Once Greece defaults, Spain and Italy will follow suit. When that happens we’re facing a situation that will make 2008 look like a picnic. The powers that be know this… which is why the IMF has warned we are facing a “global financial meltdown.” And the Bank of England says we’re facing the “worst financial crisis in history.”
Folks, these are the guys in charge of holding the financial system together… warning that we’re facing a meltdown. Did they do that in 2008? Nope. So how bad are things going to be? BAD.
————————————————————
that’s all
Eve
October 17th, 2011 at 2:23 pm
Hi Kay,
I would add to ron/ab
that even if your daytime job doesn’t permit you from being checking in on every 5min.
that doesn’t mean someone can’t invest in any market.
One always has to have a vtso instored so that if price moves positively and should start descending your price with a trailing stop it will get kicked in at a higher price than using a fixed stop such as the one ray uses.
Second thing you must do is to look at price aftr the close see how it performed, did it perform accordingly to the rules you’ve set up. and should you see something you don’t like as I mentionned to slava about cmg, your indicators will give you a sell signal. and if not sure well you can move out.
I more often than none sell at a profit that is less than the max I could have made.
look at sina I could have sold at the opening friday, but since I was waiting for a confirmation on 4MA while histogram was telling me to sell. I sold for 3$ loss of profit.
22$ is as much good as 25$ Ok I won’t get the extra IPad on my wish list but I rather have the 22 this morning than the 18 now. that would be one ticket not in the caribeans probably north pole
October 17th, 2011 at 2:36 pm
Eve,
Love the article,
but tell me is this guy an economist or what?
Aapl didn’t have preorders of 1M Iphone 4S from Italy, Greece, Spain, Portugal and so on.
When your heat pump breaks down will the Canadian Gov or Ont gov come and fix it for you, no you’ll have to call in the experts at UTC to either fix it or buy a new one should this one have done its time.
The goverments can over tax us just as they intend to do, that won’t help the economy, would have helped back in 02-03 when everything was flourishing to the extent that we spent our way thru, now it is time for taxes to be lowered so that we can spend and show companies that they must not fear the population and hire locally so that local economies thrive.
October 17th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
Hi tony,
I have no idea if he’s an economist! He’s just stating though what the banks / countries themselves have stated and is pointing out that if the banks/ countries are stating this themselves, then THAT is NOT a good thing!!
Re the rest of your post on AAPL and taxes and heat pump etc.:
I have no idea what you are trying to say tony in stating what you have with all of that LOL – sorry, but I’m not getting what your point is with all of that
eve
October 17th, 2011 at 2:42 pm
add to post 61
gov would get out of debt if we spend for them to put in the safe.
last but not least who are these rating agencies that were giving triple A ratings to bonds that were not even worth junk, or rating mortgages?
October 17th, 2011 at 2:54 pm
ok
what I meant in post 61,
The gov created this problem by having low mortgages rates, now that we are in a really bad economy, is for the people to start spending and having a demand for products, otherwise the gov will for sure lose their credit ratings.
On a last note
I spoke to my cousin yesterday, he went to vegas late sept, every year for a tooling and machine and is reaction after looking how his business was doing in the last year he couldn’t believe he sold more machines than in 09 or 10 and he couldn’t believe how Vegas was thriving with visitors.
October 17th, 2011 at 3:02 pm
tony
pardon my ignorance
but “One always has to have a vtso instored ”
What is a vtso ??
October 17th, 2011 at 3:06 pm
Re Eve’s post #59 – I subscribe to the Free Newsletter as well. Information could be valid but, he is overselling his products which seems rather unprofessional to me. Here is his bio – from himself, though:
Graham Summers is Senior Market Strategist at Phoenix Capital Research, an independent financial research firm based in Charlottesville, VA. He writes Gain, Pains, and Capital, the firm’s FREE daily e-letter covering the equity, commodity, currency, and real estate markets.
Graham also writes Private Wealth Advisory, a weekly investment advisory devoted to helping paying clients navigate the financial markets and produce outsized returns from their investments. To whit, Graham called the 2008 Crash and was one of the few newsletter writers to produce positive gains that year.
Previously, Graham worked as a Senior Financial Analyst covering global markets for several investment firms in the Mid-Atlantic region. He’s made presentations on investment ideas to high net worth clients in Dubai, Singapore, Zurich, Playa Del Carmen and his research has been quoted by Crain’s New York Business, Money Talk Radio, Reuters, and RollingStone Magazine to name a few publications.
Contact details:
Graham@gainspainscapital.com
October 17th, 2011 at 3:24 pm
vtso = virtual trailing stop order so lets say you bought this morning tza at the open 37.5 you put a vtso after you have your bought into your position, in this case you could put it at fridays closing price or its low, but the best would be to put your stop at 35.89 so you don’t get picked up and see price move higher. and as price moves higher then your your stop trails behind so
lets do an example you bought at 37.5 put a vtso at 36 =1.50 below purchase price.
if price decides to go lower after your purchase as long as price doesn’t move below 36 you are ok. as long as price moves between 36 and 37.5 nothing happens to your your stop.
if after you bought price increased as it did to 38 than your trailing stop is not at 36 anymore it moved to 36.5 because 38-1.5=36.5 so now price can fluctuate between 36.5 and 38
so had you decided to add add a vtso today at 36. price moved from 37.25 to 39.88 todays high your trailing stop would currently be at 38.63 so before you would be stopped out price should move to below to 38.63 and this stop would be good until its not triggered.
October 17th, 2011 at 3:27 pm
Tawny: Put stops on SPXU at $16.32 and TZA at $38.69. Let’s see how we close for the day and then I will give you stops I will be putting in for the open tomorrow, that is, unless we get stopped out on the close. If so, we can always buy back in at a lower price. I think Tony is referring to trailing stops like 10%, etc. I cannot put in a trailing stop with my platform (RBC), only fixed. I just change it throughout the day and at close, if I am still in the security. It’s time to let this run and see how we can maximize a profit or minimize a loss.
October 17th, 2011 at 3:28 pm
Hi Tawny:
I think Tony is referring to a Virtual Trailing Stop Order (VTSO). A stop order that adjusts as price moves.
I think Ray’s suggestion is a good one. I think you meant a stop at 16.32.
October 17th, 2011 at 3:29 pm
Sorry Tony and Ray, i must have been typing at the same time.
October 17th, 2011 at 3:35 pm
Hi tony,
ok – thanks. it’s still unclear though what you were trying to say in reference to the article I posted with your comments in 61 – but that’s ok
as for Vegas:
I was there in June 2010 – and yes, it was just booming with visitors!! BUT, that is most likely because the hotels these days are soooooooooooooooooooooo CHEAP there!!! Like $35 to $50 / night in the Luxor or MGM Grand or New York, New York, etc. – just incredibly cheap!! So, it doesn’t surprise me to hear it’s still booming there! I met many Canadians there last year – so, with our higher dollar combined with cheap hotel rates, it will attract a boming amount of people from canada for sure
as Canadians LOOOOOVE going to Vegas!!! Even when our dollar was worth much much less AND hotels cost more, cdns went there in abundance!!! I know because I took many of them there on full full flights for several years (when I was a Flight Attendant) – and EVERY flight was FULL!! We used to have 367 seats on an L1011 that went to Vegas twice weekly and every flight was full!!! So, doesn’t surprise at all that Vegas is booming with visitors 
Eve
October 17th, 2011 at 3:37 pm
Hi Tawny,
LOL – yes I know you subscribe to the same letter because it was ME who gave you the info of the letter to subscribe to
I still don’t know though whether he’s an economist because many economics majors in university went into finance and became investment professionals – so, he very well could be an economist OR at least have a degree or 2 in economics – like ME
– I just have one degree though in economics (and a second one in psychology 
).
Thanks Tawny
e.
October 17th, 2011 at 3:37 pm
ton, Ray and Ron/AB
Thanks to all of you…. I am with RBC as is Ron so I cannot use the VTSO… but sounds good.
Ray, I will take your advice…. much thanks as I will not be here most of tomorrow.
Ron/AB Thanks for your post #24…. when I have some renewed strength I will get more into this. I am going to a town 1.5 hours from year where I had my surgery to get stitches out tomorrow. I really appreciate all your help.
October 17th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
Tawny: Don’t forget to put your stop with tomorrow’s date of expiry.
October 17th, 2011 at 3:43 pm
This is a message for Wayne and tony,
I just wanted to say thank you to both of you for introducing pivots to us (Wayne) and that 4/9 day system (tony) – using both of these combined gives great timing for entry/ exits into stocks – I’ve tested this out with several stocks and have back tested going back a year and have found that using these 2 systems combined with other things like my regular stochastics, keltner, PRICE support/ resis, and MA support/ resis, gives a GREAT signal for when a buy is a low risk/ high reward kind of buy and when to sell at being close to OR at the top of a run up!
So, just wanted to say thank you to both of you for introducing these on this board
Eve
October 17th, 2011 at 3:43 pm
Not very impressed with the volume today – on a down day.
As of 3pm, it was less than what Friday brought…is Mr.Market just giving what people have been asking for after a strong run up?
Now, how did David Einhorn know that I had covered my GMCR shorts?
Why could he not choose the BIDU/LULU/SINA/FMCN & CMG(for slava)…lot of conspiracies out there…lol
October 17th, 2011 at 3:54 pm
Hi gmsa.
re GMCR:
It was showing a bear flag on the chart last week – PLUS it wasn’t performing well in relation to the group it normally trades in stride with (FOSL, SINA, BIDU, FFIV) – so, from looking at the chart only, it looked like a big decline was coming.
Re the markets:
The SPX is still in overbought zone on stochastics – sto hasn’t even budged actually!! Also, stocks are doing the same – still overbought on stochastics and sto hasn’t budged today for them! So, I expect more downside to come as each time stochastics has stayed elevated when the markets were selling down, the markets then had big down days that followed and that action then brought stochastics down too!
I guess we’ll see
Eve
October 17th, 2011 at 3:55 pm
your welcome eve,
October 17th, 2011 at 3:57 pm
Hurk
I see you are using Vector Vest. I have had it a while now but am having trouble with the best way to pick stocks. Do you use the strategies and pick them the way you do when you backtest or do you screen stocks and then buy from them? I can’t seem to pick the right stocks but to backtest and take the top 6 or 10 stocks they have shown you could make good money.If you could help me with some suggestions it would be appreciated.
October 17th, 2011 at 3:59 pm
no…Eve, No…
he just knew somehow that I had already covered my shorts on last Thursday & am still short on others that I mentioned above.
Talk about world not being fair…lol
October 17th, 2011 at 3:59 pm
Just a note tony:
I put Wayne first in my post to you and Wayne because Wayne introduced the pivots first on the board – and you introduced your 4/9 day system a few months afterwards – so, that’s why I put Wayne first in that post
just wanted you to know
eve
October 17th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
Look, can we get back to basics and forget all this political rhetoric :^(
Q. With $USD strengthening today, have we seen a bottom? If so should one be shorting commodities?
October 17th, 2011 at 4:02 pm
Hi gmsa,
LOL – awww, poor girl – I’m sorry to hear
You know, I had thought about putting on the board last week that GMCR was showing a bear flag on the charts AND was not performing normally with the group it trades with, so, it should be dropping from here – BUT, I decided not to post anything about it – I guess, I really should have posted what I was observing with it 
I’m sorry now that I didn’t because I know Slava would have shorted it for sure and now I know YOU would have benefitted from that info too 
so, I’m sorry I kept it to myself gmsa 
e.
October 17th, 2011 at 4:09 pm
Eve,
re.#77, thanks for the explanation on market & GMCR…
was just joking about my luck!
Try to squeeze out 1/2 teaspoonful of ginger juice (get a fresh ginger & squeeze the juice out – not the readymade bottled one) and add equal amount (1/2 teaspoon) of pure honey (you can take pasturized one if you want) and take this mixture 3 times a day (after breakfast in am, mid-afternoon & just b4 going to bed) and try not to eat or drink anything immediately after this for at least 1/2 hr and then drink warm water. In 4-5 days your cough, cold & even the ear infection will go away.
Hope you feel better soon.
Tawny,
All the best to you as well for 2moro.
October 17th, 2011 at 4:09 pm
Hi Eve,
Yes, ginger is great for colds/coughs. You can easily make ginger tea directly from about an inch of mashed-up root – cheaper, and that way you’ve got fresh ginger on hand for cooking too. And if the taste is too strong, add some honey – also helps soothe the throat.
Be well,
Maria
October 17th, 2011 at 4:13 pm
Re: Eve’s post(#59)of Graham Summers’ Weekly Market Forecast:
Comments made by guest Jean Francois Tardif, a retired Sprott Asset Hedge Fund Manager, re:Europe/Investing, may be of interest.
See past videos on BNN ‘Headline’: aired Oct 3rd 2011.
October 17th, 2011 at 4:21 pm
barbd/on,
Thanks for the heads up on Jean Francois Tardif…I loved to listen to his views when he used to be a regular @ market call on robtv/bnn.
One of the successful money managers at an early age who also believes in living the life and also spending time with his family.
I will definately check it out…thx again!
October 17th, 2011 at 4:37 pm
gmsa: I only learned he had been on the program, recently. I agree with you. If you ever hear that he has expressed his views, I would appreciate a post also.
October 17th, 2011 at 4:44 pm
barbd/on,
Sure thing…Cheers!
October 17th, 2011 at 4:59 pm
Hi, everyone;
Here is very interesting Video http://equedia.com/blog/view.php/Decoded-Ft-Knox-Full-Episode
Have a great evening!
October 17th, 2011 at 5:00 pm
Kay, Twany, wonderful trades!
October 17th, 2011 at 5:03 pm
Tawny: Hold your stops for tomorrow at the levels I posted. I will update again tomorrow. If Europe is lower tomorrow and Futures are negative, I will be adding to my SPXU and TZA.
October 17th, 2011 at 5:07 pm
Ray – Kitchener
Tommorrow there would be more sell off, even gap down on spy.
October 17th, 2011 at 5:08 pm
Tommorrow there would be more sell off, even gap down on spy,qqq.iwm…
October 17th, 2011 at 5:24 pm
Lin: I agree. IBM is down $6.50 in after hours trading and they beat earnings estimate. Just goes to show you fundamentals mean little in this market. Europe – Europe – Europe. Interesting video. Who has all the gold?
October 17th, 2011 at 5:28 pm
Eve,
Thanks Eve. Happy to hear that working with pivots has had a positive effect for those who choose to use them. Now that stockcharts has included them in it’s arsenal, everybody can see them. It’s quite surprising how effective they are – when you see your favorite stock bounce off the levels – it becomes one of those “Eureka” moments.
For example, last month the SnP bounced between S1 (1111.16) and the central pivot (1209.00).
Best.
October 17th, 2011 at 5:48 pm
Wayne,
I’ver added pivot on my system anf it works really good. Thanks.:)
October 17th, 2011 at 6:00 pm
Lin,
After working with them for a time, you’ll be able to develop an instinct of how they will react at certain levels.
Did you once trade currencies Lin? I used to trade for a bank. Loved trading the DMark.
I’ll be away from the computer for the next few days – I’ll catch up on the weekend.
October 17th, 2011 at 6:07 pm
Does anyone know of a single inverse US dollar etf that has some decent volume? Ditto for a single inverse Euro etf.
Thanks,
Maria
October 17th, 2011 at 6:37 pm
Here is a link to the monthly Put/Call Maximum Pain Report. It shows that a flat to slightly higher week is needed to trash most of the puts AND call options. With the heavy selloff into Oct 4th and strong rally most of them will expire worthless or be worth much less in any case as long as the markets remain in this present range.
Using Put/Call Open-Interest to Predict the Rest of the Week
October 17th, 2011 at 6:39 pm
Here is the link ……..again.
http://leavittbrothers.com/blog/?p=4952
October 17th, 2011 at 6:43 pm
gmsa
Just to say thanks for the good wishes. I do not anticipate any problem… nice drive across rural Ont. I need to get away from the markets anyway and clear my head
October 17th, 2011 at 6:45 pm
Wayne,
Thanks again for guiding!
Yes, I did in 1990s for personal, bank and inport and export companies. I have trade USD/CAD for personal since 2001. Have a great time without computers!
October 17th, 2011 at 6:47 pm
Ray/Kitchener
Thanks for update to come. I am going to stay home for the market open and I will also check on Europe… and I will also buy more – was tempted to today but I am glad I waited. I’m in there with you. I will be back before the market closes and will look for your new stop suggestions. Thanks a million.
I agree the Ft. Know – I am on to watching part 2 now…
October 17th, 2011 at 6:48 pm
Ron/BC
Thanks for the comments on USD/EUR. Glad you are return!
October 17th, 2011 at 6:49 pm
Hi Eve,
Re.#83: In this genderless virtual community, as such it doesn’t matter whether you’re a man or a woman as it’s only the view points, analysis and help offered/recieved matter…but, thought to let you know my kids call me Dad and my wife (pl. note I’m not writing my spouse) calls me her husband!
Now, pl. don’t feel guilty or say sorry as I know you perceived what ever you thought of me from my avatar here as ‘gmsa’…so I’m equally guilty for keeping it the way it is ‘gmsa’….as I type this, my daughter here is chuckling reading this thing
October 17th, 2011 at 6:52 pm
Hi,gmsa
I thought you are female! A very nice lady! other day , I just find that Sky is a lady! Ok, I know noe.:)
October 17th, 2011 at 6:57 pm
I thought Larry Berman, this morning, had a clever, simple explanation re: the disconnect between gold and gold stocks. He said that what has changed over the last couple of years is the bullion etfs. Increasingly, folks who want to play gold, now buy the bullion etfs instead of the stocks, thus, the stocks act more like any other stocks rather than following the commodity.
October 17th, 2011 at 7:48 pm
Hi Slava,
Re: AMZN
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/638/amznt.jpg/
Very double topish. Note the MFI and MACD and the MACD histogram are pointed down from Sept 18th’s top to the current top while the price is going up. Price going up, momentum indicators going down. It’s a huge negative divergence and stochastics is overbought so not a good sign.
Read a great book in the spring time, The Trader’s Book of Volume by Mark Leibovit which talked about this. He basically said, find positive divergence at the bottom and negative divergence at the top using momentum indicators, but he says just because there’s a negative divergence doesn’t mean it’s the end of the ride. It could still go up, but you want to be out of it when it breaks the trendline. So watch the short term trendline that started on Oct 1, if that breaks, it’s probably a good short till support at $210. If you look at AAPL the same thing just happened. Huge negative divergence from Aug to mid Sept high and that was a 30 dollar short when the short term trendline broke.
October 17th, 2011 at 7:55 pm
Hi Ron/BC,
Thank you for your insights re:323. I have bought RY.to @ $48.50 and looking for an exit point. Please let me if there s a good exit point. My Best, Lyn
October 17th, 2011 at 8:02 pm
Here is a link to a brief CNBC Video with Katie Stockton of M.K.M.Partners. She is a down to earth no nonsense analyst and is always nice to see & hear her observations. Doesn’t just talk the talk like so many do. When she speaks it’s worth taking notes and paying attention. Also on CNBC a very good chart technician with an impressive track record is Carter Worth. He also expects a further sell off from here but expects only a brief pullback to 1160 maximum while Katie expects the SPX 1100 area support to be retested and broken down to possibly the mid 900′s. They both may be right over time but with present high bearish sentiment everywhere I suspect the pullback will be minor and brief as Carter Worth projects to perhaps 1160 and hold for some time. Perhaps they are referring to different time frames. But only the charts will decide what’s next. But it’s worth keeping in mind.
http://video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000051746
October 17th, 2011 at 8:11 pm
Given that we are sharing, I will remove any guessing. I’m a man. LOL
October 17th, 2011 at 8:34 pm
Lyn. Don’t know if you are just trying to really screw my mind up or joking but buying RY.to is not what I would ever suggest doing at this point. If you are paper trading without real money even then this was a bad trade technically. There is major resistance at $49. This is where price broke down in early Sept and has bumped up against this $49 price as resistance a few times now. It is also the major downtrendline resistance point. I would EXIT this postion ASAP and stand aside for now. Especially with the broad market looking to likely selloff further. Price closed at $47.49-.21 today. The high today was $47.95 so you couldn’t have bought in at $48.50. The chart is still bearish with falling train tracks and an RSI 21 below the 50 line. As I said yesterday this is for trend trading not bottom picking for price lows. Trying to buy price lows is like picking up pennies in front of a steam roller. You have to be very fast to succeed at that. Buying in a rising trend is like falling on a rising escalator. You still go higher even when screwing up. And buying in a falling market you still go lower even if correct short term. Don V. has said the banking sector is entering its bullish period. But you still have to wait for technical signals to start buying them. He will tell you in his morning report and on any interview he gives when that buy signal occurs. He is also expecting a low at the END of October. I have changed this chart for you with the standard technical indicators on the bottom that Don V. uses and most other traders. Everything else above on the chart is what I consider important and necessary. You can use this chart and just change the stock symbol and all the technical stuff will remain the same. As I suggested print out a bunch of charts and draw ruler lines across price points that line up horizontally and even the angled ‘trendlines’ as shown. No need to buy anything presently regardless of what occurs. Get a feel for the charts and read Don V.’s report every morning to build confidence.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p47140790992&a=246288212
October 17th, 2011 at 8:42 pm
Lin,
Oh well, now that’s clear. You are definately a very good trader with a great discipline…and have a lot to learn.
Ray- Kitchener,
Thanks for making it clear…lol
October 17th, 2011 at 9:04 pm
To Ron/BC, Tony, Ray-Kitchener, Eve and anyone who can help please.
I’ve a question on ARE.TO (aecon group/construction) and the interpretation of this following scenario.
Take a look at this link.
http://www.stockhouse.com/financialtools/sn_level2.aspx?qm_page=14029&qm_symbol=T.ARE
Now there is only 56 million float out there and this puppy only trades couple of hundred thousands share max. on an average. Many times barely 40-70k shares change hands. As you can see, after the market close 1.8million shares changed hands @4:25pm today. During normal business hours there were couple of trades of 50-200k shares.
Considering it’s going down for a long time & is a classic value trap, what do you think took place?
There is no news, is it just that some big mutual fund booked the loss?
This company has been doing some off & on market purchase (ncib) and cancelling those shares. CEO has been a net seller as per INK reports…while some officers bought @8.29 level several months ago.
Will really appreciate any insight or a rundown scenarios that can take place…don’t see that this is bought-out by someone (hope not as I’m short).
Thanks.
October 17th, 2011 at 9:05 pm
Lin:
At #114, meant to say this at the end “and I have a lot to learn from you”. Sorry for the typo.
October 17th, 2011 at 9:32 pm
Further to # 115 (ARE.TO):
http://www.m-x.ca/f_circulaires_en/160-11_en.pdf
The above lik is from TMX option exchange.
On the 3rd page of this document it shows the ‘position limit’ was set at 22,500…
So someone bought or sold these many options? and therefore, taking the possession on Thursday i.e. 2 day before the opitions expiry?
This one is becoming quite a case study for me!
October 17th, 2011 at 9:36 pm
Hi,gmsa
Thank you for encouragement! You are other wonderful trader too.
I have a chart for you, it was almost same situation with GCE.TO
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GCE.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24077839431&a=238176732&listNum=7
October 17th, 2011 at 9:43 pm
Hi,gmsa:
There was other stock which was took over after few weeks. EGU.to ( forgive me I don’t remember the the name), The stock was hold really good , patterns just like the one you metioned.
October 17th, 2011 at 9:46 pm
There was other stock which was took over after few weeks. EGU.to ( forgive me I don’t remember the the name), The stock was hold really good , institution was trying so hard to mantain it when market was big sold off that day, volume was hug, patterns just like the one you metioned. Hope this helps.
October 17th, 2011 at 9:49 pm
Lin,
Thx for the simplified chart of GCE.TO
I’ve been going long & short on GCE now and then. Same with LIM.TO.
LIM.TO has bounced @ 100% since Oct.4th and now showing weakness not very ripe to short but keep an eye on it…or look at options to sell on it for some income.
By the way, could you pl. shed some light on either #115 and #117?
Even if you don’t know about this Aecon as an equity but since you are pro at trading opitions, what would this ‘positiion limit’ mean for this upcoming Oct. expiration? Especially, when almost the same quantity (today total 2.34million share changed hands) trades before Friday settlement.
thanks a lot in advance.
October 17th, 2011 at 9:56 pm
Re:#113,
Ron/BC, I printed out your charts this weekend and I was so amused about the chart, it looks I am in a candy store, anyway, you are very very good of charting and explaining all the details, BUT whenever I have problem understanding something I use the ‘reversal logic’ theory by reading charts upside down and thought it looks was not that bad, just different way to learn thought.
October 17th, 2011 at 10:07 pm
Hi Ron/BC: Thanks for the video link to Katie Stockton as well as the stockchart set-up for RY. I also saved it to use on other stocks. When I input a new symbol, the chart is quite small in the left corner of the screen. Could you please tell me how to enlarge it like that of RY? Thanks a lot and so happy to read your posts again!! I hope that you are doing well and wish you good health and happiness, always;-)
October 17th, 2011 at 10:09 pm
Teri and Ron/BC
I have experienced same thing, Teri.
It would be great to understand why that happens and if the chart can be adjusted, Ron/BC. Thanks indeed.
October 17th, 2011 at 10:11 pm
Teri,
Below the chart under the ‘chart attributes’, look for ‘size’ and select say, landscape…and hit ‘update’ button below ‘volume’…it will be wider.
Hope it helps.
October 17th, 2011 at 10:23 pm
Hi gmsa…….it worked…thanks so much
October 17th, 2011 at 10:25 pm
gmsa
Ditto!
October 17th, 2011 at 10:28 pm
Eve,
That you mentionned my name before or after wayne doesn’t change a thing to me, I am rarely offended and when I am well you’ve seen me rant against slava two weeks ago (sorry Slava still love you even if you are hard headed worst than a calabrese
)
plus between T and W there are 2
October 17th, 2011 at 10:29 pm
last thing Eve,
I met with Don tonight here in montreal, and he says you try to much
October 17th, 2011 at 10:37 pm
Teri & Tawny,
Glad could help…few months ago I had the same trouble & struggled to find the solution…but hey, at least learnt few extra things too! Like annotate & positioning the indicators above,below or behind the price. Try on your favourite stock & you will see a very clear picture.
Sorry, Tawny did not see your question until I submitted my response to Teri.
October 17th, 2011 at 10:37 pm
Hi tony,
What does don mean by I try too much??
e.
October 17th, 2011 at 10:38 pm
Very good for you Tony,
Did you get a different insight there during the meet with Don there in Montreal?
October 17th, 2011 at 10:39 pm
Oh gmsa,
Oh sorry about that – I thought you were a female – I thought we had discussed that when we had discussed your kids before (you seemed very motherly) – so, I guess that’s why I had thought you were a woman LOL – sorry about that gmsa
e.
October 17th, 2011 at 10:40 pm
Eve & Tony,
If you’ve got few minutes could you please check #115 & #117 and advise? Thx.
October 17th, 2011 at 10:49 pm
Received this today…. from Elliott Wave Theorist … forecasting that stocks will undergo a large upward retracement. Worth looking at the chart.
http://www.elliottwave.com/single-issues/ff/US-Stocks-What-Were-You-Reading-At-The-Start-Of-2011.aspx?code=EMCLUB
Comments???
October 17th, 2011 at 10:52 pm
gmsa,
I now that some use Price/volume correlation as an indicator
I used it to call a top on gce.to few months ago, and pwf.to last week
On both there was big volume, but small price change that meant a reversal was near.
When you have big price change and large volume most often you see this when a company is at the end of its bear trend.
I was looking at the 4/9/18, and 4 has crossed above the 9 and 18, as for the 9 it will be crossing the 18 so this is big positive news.
this one could move to 8.80, but don’t forget construction is about to end soon so this could pop by the end of the quarter and start moving lower.
October 17th, 2011 at 10:55 pm
no worries Eve,
But looks like you’re mixing up me with somebody else…I never discussed about my life/kids.
Now glad that my daughter has gone off to sleep or else she would call me ‘motherly father’ from your writings…lol!
October 17th, 2011 at 10:57 pm
I can’t say more than that because I left the conversation at that,
And i really don’t want to try to put words in his mouth that he didn’t say and miss interpret him.
October 17th, 2011 at 10:59 pm
Teri. I could never figure out why I can see something (like that hot chick that used to be on the right of the chart that left me,lol) and others didn’t see the same thing. I guess Stockcharts somehow knows I’m a subscriber even though I or someone else posts one of their charts on another detached site. But yes as gmas said under size just type in 900 or Landscape to get a large chart again. You can also change Predetermined Range from one year to select 6 months for a better close up view. That will sometimes distort some indicator markings on the chart but you still get a better close up view. I save some charts with 6 months data and some one year and some 3 years so changing the Predetermined Range will sometimes look odd with the words and markings I’ve put in. Today’s chart of RY.to I used the standard MACD and Full Stochastics just so everyone is on the same page when referring to these standard settings. I won’t change the RSI 21 as I am convinced it is a far better setting. Try punching in HXD.to and note the train tracks reverse in May at $8.40 and they are still rising together inspite of all the wild gyrations in the market. To buy on the cross over you would have had wild swings up and down but if anyone sticks to the train tracks direction they will do well other than the odd whipsaw periods of choppiness and then at a trend change. But you can’t use tight ‘swing trade’ stop losses when trend trading. Wild ride but the train was still moving up no matter where you got on. That will end some day of course but that was the point I was trying to make long ago. But the once bitten twice shy kicks in and is hard to do with any negative experience in mind. Notice now the 50ema is above the 50 line meaning this is still in an uptrend. Also notice each time the Stochastics bottom below 20 and turn up ‘above the 20 line again’ is near a low price point like now. I’m not encouraging you to get on that bandwagon again as it has baggage but you can use this chart with those indicators as a guide. This is for ‘trend trading’ not swing or day trading. But you can use an indicator as simple as Stochastics to get on a cross back up over 20 and off at across below 80 and then stand aside until the next cross. That is a nice combination of trend trading and catching ‘significant’ swing lows and highs. Full Stochastics does have a fairly good track record of catching lows but will whipsaw in rallies above and below the 80 line while prices continue to rise. It can get you to exit far too early on those whipsaws at the 80 line. Just something to look for. But getting off the train and standing aside with a profit is good to clear the mind without being exposed to risk. Things become much clearer when off the train. Good luck with it.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HXD.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p20754303667&a=234719595
October 17th, 2011 at 11:07 pm
Tony,
Thanks for the reply re. meet with Don & your interpretation on ARE.TO.
I am not into options so this ‘position limit’ is new to me. Does this mean someone bought the maximum avaiable options @ TMX?…as I said, it’s like a case study to me…will see if 2moro brings any news etc.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:07 pm
I asked how they decide to use a one ETF Vs Another. or a stock pick, and they use is son Jon website Equity clock to time the date.
Here is an example ORCL comes out with Q results before the the seasonality if they see it perform poorly well they’ll decide to go with another sector.
Once the sector is choosen, they will compare it with subsectors and then the underlying stock within the ETF.
How they choose a company they want to see indicators in oversold theory, once all indicators say its a go then they put the money to work,
October 17th, 2011 at 11:09 pm
Ron I.m a subscriber and there is no chicks on my computer, are you sure you don’t have those dancing Hawaiian girl and the extra beer she turns pretty
October 17th, 2011 at 11:10 pm
Hi,gmsa
Sorry, I haven’t followed that very much detail, and I phoned other option trader and she had no idea as well. I hope Rol Lew, Eve, or other may have some view to you.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:11 pm
Teri. Forgot to mention each change on the chart you must click UPDATE. Also in my post I meant to say the RSI 21 must be above the 50 line (not the 50ema above the 50 line) This is an early warning of a change but can whipsaw a little as well. One can watch it to see if it was just a blip or exit and wait. Always nice to get off the train and see when it’s safe to get back on to ride the train again. Why wait for a crash……….
October 17th, 2011 at 11:12 pm
2moro is tommorrow?? lolololo
October 17th, 2011 at 11:14 pm
tony. There used to be a hot chick on the right of the charts wearing hot pick top and jeans. They were advertising the stock “Extreme Jeans”. Then she left me. Haven’t seen her since or anyone else. All alone once again. Story of my life of extremes just like the jeans. I have either had too many people around me and too much work to do or no one around and no work. Just like the extreme jeans,lol………
October 17th, 2011 at 11:17 pm
gmsa,
BTW, It is difficult trade option with dollars stocks. For stocks , I would go short or long than option. It is pain on the neck ,esp our Canadian one.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:19 pm
gmsa: Re Aecon: This large purchase of 1.8 million shares after the close could be a 1) company buy back from a large institution
2) a large institution purchase from another institution
3) sale of shares by the CEO or Board Member to an institution
As it was at the same price as the close, I assume it was a deal based upon Monday’s close. As there were no announcements by the company, I am sure it was above board and not a takeover, etc.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:21 pm
Tony & Ron/BC,
Yes every now & then that ‘hot chick’ in pink top shows up on my stockcharts and that reminds me of Ron/BC. Ron’s right…Tony. Hope he is not wishing for one of those…sorry Ron/BC, I guess time for me to stop.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:26 pm
Tawny
I have read that, I have seen there may be year-end-rally for Xmas, but market is very overbought,and there is no people want buy until it is cheaper again. But no bull market .
October 17th, 2011 at 11:27 pm
Lin,
Great, many thanks for trying to find the answer & calling your friend on that 2day!
Your time & efforts much appreciated.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:27 pm
i’ve used it stockcharts freely and in the lst 6mo i’ve been a subscriber and never saw here
It must be my wife that scares the livin %^$* out of her lol
October 17th, 2011 at 11:28 pm
By the way Don is of the same opinion markets are overbought, and we should see a 50% drop from fridays top to the the oct4 low.
and they are 40% invested and should be fully invested by the end of the month.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:29 pm
Hi, Tony
Thank you for hard working! 
I set up 2 and 4 ma on charts for 5 mints. Are there anythings yet?
October 17th, 2011 at 11:35 pm
gmsa ,
And my hubby just told me that position limit means allow trade that much. If you are interesting our Canadian option, www.http://optionmatters.ca/ this guy is really good just like Don V… But if you are interest US options, you may go option express. The lady I phoned just now who has traded indexes for many years and she is above me a lot.
so I learn again 2day == today.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:37 pm
Ray – Kitchener,
Was expecting your reply as you’ve said in the past to me that you used to follow it.
Thanks for the scenario run down. I just looked at the seasonality of ARE.TO It starts around this time
http://charts.equityclock.com/aecon-group-inc-tseare-seasonal-chart
I hope it’s just some brokerage house buying the entire lot from some other big house and not the takeover. It can’t be a buyback by the co. as if I recall correctly, their NCIB limit is not that big. Do you see a connection to that TMX position limit for 22,500 options only?
I was looking forward to the test of it’s mid-nov 2009 lows as the earnings, guidance and backlogs are not meeting the expectations for quite some time.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:49 pm
Tony, Lin & Tawny,
Re. markets, pl. refer to the ‘Thackray’s market letter for oct. 2011′ and notice the chart on the 3rd page in blue & white with a label ‘mind the gap’
It says it all.
If you don’t have it or seen it just in case, here is the link
http://www.alphamountain.com/randf/TML/Thackray%20Market%20Letter%202011%20October.pdf
October 17th, 2011 at 11:50 pm
Hi Ron/BC: Thanks for your explanation and helpful tips!! It has been really hard for me to get onto trades since I was so badly burned:( I make the odd trade but would love to be able to get things right so that I can start to make back some of my losses. Do you think that hxd is a better to trade than hsd, at this point? Also, could you reference price points that would be attractive for buy/sell on the preferred choice, if it isn’t too much to ask?? If not, it’s okay. (This level on the s&p looks good to trade the inverse, I believe?)Thanks, Ron and enjoy your evening:)
October 17th, 2011 at 11:50 pm
Lin
what do you mean by is there anything yet? you mean to go long?
October 17th, 2011 at 11:56 pm
Lin,
Thx for the optionmatter.ca website. It’s a blog site from TMX itself! Whenever I watched Richard Croft it made me learn these options. Also received some turorial CD/DVD from schaefferresearch and it’s just sitting in my bookshelf. Between job/life/kids/family & the markets….just can’t manage to find time.
One day I will get around it too.
October 17th, 2011 at 11:59 pm
RSI, ADX,MACD? Tony
October 18th, 2011 at 12:04 am
gmsa
Sometime I find Bear or Bull etf is other good choice too for indexes. Simple and best.
October 18th, 2011 at 12:05 am
adx, i tried this one more than once, its out of my league to complicated to read.
rather have a renko chart. than ADX indicator.
October 18th, 2011 at 12:06 am
Have a great nite, everyone.
October 18th, 2011 at 12:09 am
I’m off as well.
Thanks again to all who could help on my question.
Good night all!
October 18th, 2011 at 12:09 am
Eve, Tony, HS, mick/inv – thank you so much for your posts addressed to me in regards to the stocks I’ve been asking about. I just got back home after a very long day and trying to scan through all the posts. I’m glad we’ve been having such a wonderful AMZN discussion and I hope we can all profit from the share price movement (although some of you don’t short – I find it so strange since you all have such great TA skills!).
Ron/BC – all is even better now that you are back
By the way, I think might have misunderstood Lyn, the lady who was asking about RY. It sounds like she bought RY some time ago and was asking for your opinion as to the exit point. I loved your RY chart and will print it when I have a free sec at work in the next few days.
Tony, you are a very interesting person – I have to give you that! Really enjoy your posts and humour (and, like you said “little rant” directed at me, I’m totally fine with that..lol.. yes, I get stubborn).
Eve, re Tony’s post #129 – it sounds like a huge compliment! Yes, you try to respond to all the questions posted by so many different people, you share your observations on a daily basis and take the time to write very detailed posts – be it TA, fundamental, newletters, etc. So in many ways you have become the driving force of this forum AND your knowledge and expertise engage and draw in other knowledgeable invesors (Tony, Lin, Wayne, mick/inv, etc. – the list is too long to mention). So you’ve been definetely noticed by Don and TechTalk.
Tony, did Don say anything about me and my extremely exciting and insightful posts posts …lol
?
October 18th, 2011 at 12:10 am
GMSA,
I know options are overwhelming, I don’t trade options in canada there is not enough volume to go about and use the TA to make a living unless there is volume such as tck.b
but what i use it for is to put target price on stock.
AAPl today was trading put from 425 to 370 all in green.
Calls where going from 425 all the way to 570 also all green
this means there are people betting that if it missed you could see price drop to as low as 370 or it could pop in the 570 area,
in other words it was a battle between the bulls and the bears, the one who wins you will is price be executed.
October 18th, 2011 at 12:12 am
Tony, there is one thing, I use when it cross over I go long or short in my other computer system. I haven’t tried on 5 mints charts but it works really good with daily charts. I will try and will let you know…
October 18th, 2011 at 12:15 am
the meeting started at 5 ended at 7 didn’t have supper,, had to go and get the kids at my mom, got there with barely 5mn to spare, so I didn’t push to much asked about how to interpret indicators that are going diffent direction.
If the meeting was later and wife was home I would have asked a few more questions.
told him I hope he continues giving us the pulse of the market for another 100yrs
October 18th, 2011 at 12:16 am
Tony, have you been investing and using TA for a long time? How did you learn? Courses, seminars, books? You have a very vast knowledge and can tie it all together (TA, hedge funds activities, options, etc.).
October 18th, 2011 at 12:26 am
Ok lin think I got your Question.
does the 2-4MA cross work just as well as on a larger scale, but you must enter for nickels and dimes, and often also, (will have to use 9/8 as Support n Resistance also pivot)look at abx on a 5 min chart 3times on the but some are hard to see the cross of if its skidds off.
October 18th, 2011 at 12:42 am
Slava,
I went to Athabasca U if you don’t read you don’t learn.
I studied the free online education from Online tradng academy, Marketclub tutorials.
CBOE tutorials, optionanimal free webinar, cyberuniveristy (the .2 x 1000shares method)
learned the hardway how to lose money if they say its a duck don’t go against CNBC.
fannie mae killed my portfolio.
Cramer gves good advice on his educational segment. that runs every time hes on vacation.
I tried TA using indicators, some gave me great wealth sar gave me a 40% pop in three days. Some killed me the 50/200 destroyed me,
hedge fund part was a cramer educational segment that comes on when he goes on vacation.
whn ben bernanke speaks bettr be on the sidelines the first 30 min after his speech its never hedge funds tat are trading they are taking a break and commentng where they should go with the market. (i’m assumption) got out when market went down and the opposite when it went up.
options week well its there to scare you.
week of earning statement well go against the grain. I think Aapl is the only company that will not go down after they report.
I try listen to comments on cnbc before 7 gve an idea where we are headed.
October 18th, 2011 at 12:44 am
whn ben bernanke speaks bettr be on the sidelines the first 30 min after his speech its never hedge funds tat are trading they are taking a break and commentng where they should go with the market (my assumption). got out when market went down and the opposite when it went up. the hedge funds came in and did the opposite go figure.
October 18th, 2011 at 12:46 am
all the courses i took were free, just to understand how they think.
October 18th, 2011 at 12:53 am
Slava,
Ron/BC likes to play it safe with holdings that are bullish, and its ok for is portfolio
I like to play the same 3-4 companies but with shorter term parameters. so i can move in and out as quickly as I see something moving south.
October 18th, 2011 at 12:54 am
Teri. Here is a ratio chart like Don V. shows often at the bottom of his chart to show outperformance and underperformance and talks about all the time. Not enough people do this from what I have experienced. He makes many of his decisions based on ‘relative charts’ or Ratio charts as I call them. You wondered which double bear to buy HXD.to or HSD.to. See I have punched in HXD.to:HSD.to on the chart box and I get the ratio of the two. In other words this chart shows if the 1st symbol of HXD.to is outperforming HSD.to. And yes it is. This tells you HXD.to is and has been outperforming HSD.to since the Aug 8th low consistently. This obviously means commodity/resource based stocks are underperforming industrial types. Recall our conversation long ago about a recession and resource based stocks like the TSX would underperform industrial stocks. And see the Canadian dollar fall below par typically and is now bouncing back to par 1.00 which should serve as resistance. Nothing out of the ordinary happening now. No guarantees in this world but if the Stochastics cross above 20 on HXD.to that would ‘suggest’ a rally off support like today did would continue. Being spooked due to a bad experience you will likely bail at the 1st sign of a reversal back as that is normal. But it is worth a try in here presently. HSD.to has about 500k volume which isn’t terrible but not great. And HXD.d has over 1 mil volume which is better for enters and exits. Those are just my observations and nothing more. I don’t expect a crashing market this time down as SPX 1100 has proven itself despite breaking a tad lower with a false breakdown. That was still a successful test of the August lows with that huge reversal bar on the close that double bottom day. I suspect this next selloff just might not be so bad. But the market doesn’t care what I expect. The chart alone knows and HXD.to does look like it would like to run higher especially if Stochastics cross up over 20 like they look to do.
You could also wait for this selloff to end and with the extreme bearish sentiment even more extreme then the Bull train would be what to get on next that would likely run much further and longer than this short bear one now. That should be far better and longer than any selloff here in my opinion.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HXD.TO:HSD.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p67075140815&a=246398049
October 18th, 2011 at 12:57 am
Hi Ron/BC
Just wanted to say I am really happy to see you back posting on this forum.
October 18th, 2011 at 1:04 am
Eve and others,
. For the current cold attack just any cold medication might work based on your symptoms but remember to rest and drink a lot of fluids. Hope this helps
Being a pharmacist I can advice you of keeping Cold FX handy and on the FIRST SIGN of a cold start it at the recommended dose for a quick relief, ie, 3caps twice daily for day 1 then 2 caps twice for day 2 then 1 cap twice daily for day 3 and this dose is for the extra strength version. I find it works well with a lot of people. Just thought of mentioning this since its my specialty area
October 18th, 2011 at 1:16 am
Tony, thanks. I have lots to learn, I just need some free time to dedicate to studying, I’ve been way too busy lately.
October 18th, 2011 at 1:22 am
Ron/BC: Thanks for your response so late tonight….I really appreciate it! Perhaps, I’ll give it a try tomorrow. I am watching for some good lows to buy in for the upside, maybe you can post when you think your ducks are lined up for a run on the bull side;-)Good night:)
October 18th, 2011 at 9:53 am
Eve, Ron/AB et al.
VOLUME: I agree that as an indicator it is most important.
What I look at every day beside the obvious TSX, S&P 500, DOW daily and weekly Charts, VIX, USD, etc. are two leveraged TSX ETFs, the HXD (Down) and HXU (Up).
I see these two ETFs as guides to general market sentiment. These are leveraged so IMO they represent the TSX on steroids, sometimes easier to see clear trends in the TSX as they will move more dramatically with market action.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HXD.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p84993965179
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HXU.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p94174957788
If one compares the two, look at the trend line of the 50 DMA and 200 DMA. Note the Bearish Death Cross on the HXU and the Bullish Golden Cross on the HXD. Note the rising average daily volume on the HXD as compared to the HXU….. note how weak the volume has been on the HXU over the past few months AND the weak volume on the most recent rally…. If these were ordinary stocks, which one would you buy? I would buy the one with a positive trend line and a “Golden Cross” as I have found with experience that I generally make money with charts that have these bullish features.
But most important to note in here is the OBV. The HXD has a strong rising OBV trend line, while the HXU has a falling OBV trend line. A rising OBV always precedes a rising stock price.
“The On-Balance Volume (OBV) indicator, introduced by Joseph Granville in 1963, shows graphically the flow of volume in a stock. The OBV line is a running cumulative total of the daily volume numbers, adding volume on days the price goes up, subtracting on down-days. […]
“The basic premise of OBV analysis is that volume changes occur before price changes. This is because the strength of market action is reflected in volume first, not price. The theory is that “smart money” (institutions, funds, etc.) flows into a stock with a rising OBV before the stock price rises. […]
That is, if the price is rising with heavy volume, the rise is likely to continue. If that same rising price is with declining volume, the rise is not likely to continue.”
http://www.pro-fundity.com/archedits/052899b.html
The P&F chart on the HXD also confirm the possibility a much deeper correction ahead… about 60% lower from here. I suspect, from looking at the weekly TSX chart that we will eventually retest the 2009 lows.
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=HXD.TO,PLAADANRBOPADF1!3!1.0!!2!20&pref=G
October 18th, 2011 at 9:56 am
Rami/AB,
I took Cold FX and it works great, may I have your suggestions for dry cough please?
Thank you,
October 18th, 2011 at 11:41 am
Added to my NAE-TSX- NAL Energy in my retirement account today, an old Income Trust name formed by Manulife to manage their O&G investments. No rocket to the moon here, but decent yield play. My usual mid-month yield purchase.
Overweight in REITS and Utilities in this account, so have to steer myself into other sectors every chance I get.
O&G was only 10% of account this year, so since last summer I have been buying new names and adding to positions in this sector for the first time in years. O&G corps are cheap now … I like the 50%-50% (more or less) O&G old trust names best and am avoiding any names that are either gas or oil over weighted. Best balance for long term steady yield… Long term oil or gas always comes back…. not like we will stop using any of it soon…. got to buy these when they are cheap.
Yields are good in this sector. NAE around 10% … considering near zero for money in the bank …. These are pretty good yields.
Some day the world economy will rebound and these names will do fine.
Main issue for me is yield. I don’t trade much in this account, just buy and hold forever unless positions need rebalancing. Did some of that last summer… as I have some with great gains. I have 2 names that will be merging in a few weeks so will have to trim some off as the position will exceed 5%. I prefer 2.5% per position, 5% is my max. This will prevent the old “torpedoed by one stock” in this 100% fully invested account.
Need the cash flow for retirement pension income enhancement. This is my personal pension fund … so far doing just fine, well above my 2007-8 high. On track to deliver what is expected.