ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Friday December 9th 2011
U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 4 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to news that a majority of European Union leaders have agreed to a framework of an arrangement that includes fiscal ties. The United Kingdom, Hungry, Sweden and the Czech Republic have opted out of the arrangement. Negotiations continue.
Index futures also responded to news that China’s inflation rate fell to 4.2% in November from 5.5% in October. A lower inflation rate is expected to prompt the Chinese government to stimulate the economy.
The October U.S. Trade Deficit was slightly lower than expected. Consensus was $44.0 billion versus $44.2 billion in September. Actual was $43.5 billion.
Canada’s October Trade Balance was worse than expected. Consensus was a surplus of $600 million versus a surplus of $1,200 million in September. Actual was a deficit of 890,000.
Texas Instruments fell $1.53 to $28.39 after lowering fourth quarter guidance.
Duke Energy (DUK $20.49) is expected to open higher after FBR Capital upgraded the stock from Underperform to Market Perform. Target is $21.
Mosaic eased $0.83 to $50.30 after JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral.
Costco is expected to open lower after Susquehanna downgraded the stock from Neutral to Negative.
JDS Uniphase (JDSU $10.69) is expected to open higher after UBS initiated coverage with a Buy rating. Target is $13.
TransAlta (TA $21.29 Cdn.) is expected to open lower after Scotia Capital downgraded the stock from Sector Perform to Underperform.
Fedex added $0.19 to $82.66 despite Sterne Agee lowering its fiscal 2012 and 2013 earnings estimates.
Dupont fell $2.32 to $44.20 after lowering its fourth quarter earnings guidance.
Technical Watch
FedEx Corp. (NYSE:FDX) – $82.66 added 0.2% despite a reduction in earnings estimates by Sterne Agee. The stock has an improving technical profile. Intermediate trend is neutral. Trend becomes positive on a break above intermediate resistance at $85.75. The stock recently bounced from near its 50 day moving average at $78.34, but found short term resistance at its 200 day moving average at $85.03. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive in mid-September. Seasonal influences currently are positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate at current or lower prices.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/clip_image00116.png "clip_image001[1]")
FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image167.png "clip_image002[1]")
TransAlta Corp (TSE: TA;NYSE:TAC) – $21.29 Cdn. is expected to open lower after Scotia Capital downgraded the stock from Sector Perform to Underperform. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades below its 50 day moving average and is likely to open below its 200 day moving average at $21.22. Short term momentum indicators recently rolled over from overbought levels and are trending down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index has been negative since the beginning of October. Seasonal influences currently are positive, but turn negative early in January. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/clip_image00316.png "clip_image003[1]")
TransAlta Corporation (TSE:TA) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image494.png "clip_image004[1]")
Dupont Co. (NYSE:DD) – $44.20 fell 5.0% after lowering fourth quarter guidance. The stock has a mixed technical profile. Intermediate trend is neutral. Resistance is at $49.49 and near is 200 day moving average at $49.24. The stock is expected to open below its 50 day moving average at $45.40. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over. On the other hand, strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the beginning of October and seasonal influences currently are positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate on weakness closer to support at $43.79.
![clip_image005[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2011/12/clip_image00516.png "clip_image005[1]")
E.I. du Pont de Nemours & Company (NYSE:DD) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image006[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image124.png "clip_image006[1]")
Mark Leibovit’s Daily Gold Comment
More information on Mark’s services is available at
http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp
GOLD – ACTION ALERT – NEUTRAL
It was rumored yesterday that BIS, Bank of England, and the Federal Reserve sold gold today in an concerted effort to drive down prices. Perhaps they just needed the cash! In any event, it took the stuffings out the gold and silver bulls visions of dancing sugar-plums in their heads. We remain in a wide range bounded by 1655 and 1804 in spot gold. Silver is 30 to 35. I believe a move above 1804 could result in seeing new highs (or at least a test of highs), while a break of 1655 could send gold back to the 1531 low from back in September or even lower. Silver is a tough one to call, but if gold rallies here, we could see the mid to high 30s into the first quarter of 2012. This is why I’m NEUTRAL. There are plenty of fundamental reasons to be bullish on the precious metals and longer-term I recommended continuing to hold your physical metal. However, the ‘powers that be’ are apparently working against gold and silver – so short-term rewards may not be in the offing. We could be in the throes of an extended correction.
Interesting Charts
Equity markets around the world responded yesterday to news that the European Central Bank was unwilling to leverage itself to buy and to support European sovereign debt. Net result for U.S. equity indices was sign of at least a short term stall. The S&P 500 once again failed to move above its 200 day moving average currently at 1,2663.44.
Despite weakness in world equity indices yesterday, none broke intermediate support levels.
Updates on Sectors and Equities with Positive Seasonal Characteristics since recommended after October 4th
Despite weakness in equity markets yesterday, sectors and stocks recommended for their favourable seasonality following market lows on October 4th remain technically intact and continue to outperform the S&P 500 Index. Following is an update.
ETF News
(Source: www.etfdb.com )
Direxion Launches Insider Sentiment ETFs
by Michael Johnston on December 8, 2011
Direxion, one of the largest issuers of leveraged and inverse ETFs, announced the launch today of a pair of non-leveraged funds that will utilize insider sentiment indicators to achieve exposure to domestic equities. The new ETFs will seek to replicate indexes that filter the universe of U.S. equities using quant-based strategies to eliminate stocks with aggressive accounting. The methodology behind the new ETFs will analyze public company filings related to frequency of trades, purchases of stock and increases in holdings by “insiders,” as well as positive earnings analysis. The companies with the highest “insider sentiment” scores are included in the funds.
The two new ETFs are:
· Direxion All Cap Insider Sentiment Shares (KNOW): This ETF is linked to the Sabrient Multi-Cap Insider/Analyst Quant-Weighted Index, which consists of 100 stocks that are included in the S&P 1500. The underlying index is “quant-weighted,” meaning the top 50 stocks are weighted exponentially (the top stock represents 2.6% of the index), while the bottom 50 stocks are equal-weighted, with each representing 0.35%.
· Direxion Large Cap Insider Sentiment Shares (INSD): This ETF is linked to the Sabrient Large-Cap Insider/Analyst Quant-Weighted Index, which includes 100 stocks from the S&P 500 Index. This benchmark uses a similar “quant-based” weighting methodology.
Both new ETFs will charge an expense ratio of 0.65%.
Global X Debuts First Greece ETF (GREK)
by Michael Johnston on December 8, 2011
Global X continued a busy week of product development; after rolling out a pair of ETFs linked to NASDAQ indexes, the New York-based issuer followed up with the first product offering pure play exposure to Greece. The new FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK) will seek to replicate the FTSE/Athex 20 Index, a benchmark that includes 20 of the largest companies that are domiciled in, principally traded in, or whose revenues are derived primarily from Greece. GREK is the first ETF to specifically target Greek equities, and the fund launches at a time when the Greek economy is on the brink of a fiscal nightmare.
Greece has become the center of Europe’s sovereign debt crisis, as the country’s generous social benefits have resulted in a massive debt burden that has now grown too large to realistically manage. Last year, Greece agreed to a series of aggressive spending cuts in order to receive more than $100 billion in aid from the EU and IMF. So far, Greece has received about 20 billion, and has made only moderate progress in reforms and privatizations as a result of intense public pressure to avoid austerity measures.
Greek markets have been pummeled as the debt crisis has intensified. The Athens Stock Exchange General Index, a broad-based measure of Greek stocks, has lost about half of its value since the year started. Since reaching a peak market cap of about $220 billion in 2007, the market cap of the Athens Stock Exchange has fallen by about 90% to less than $30 billion in November. If the new Greek government is able to implement the reform packages to which it has committed, it’s possible that Greek stocks could begin to recover the ground lost as a result of the extended fiscal crisis. But there are certainly a number of obstacles in the way to that goal; strong opposition to any form of austerity threatens to collapse the aid needed to pull the economy out of its malaise.
GREK’s 20 holdings feature a tilt towards the financial sector, which accounts for about a third of total assets. Other sectors receiving big weightings include industrials (22%) and consumer discretionaries (18%); those three account for about three quarters of total holdings. According to the fund fact sheet, there is no allocation made to health care, technology, or consumer staples.
The largest holding in GREK i sthe National Bank of Greece (about 14%), followed by Coca Cola HBC (13%), Greek Organisation of Football Prognostics (12%), and Hellenic Telecome (9%). The top ten holdings make up about 75% of the portfolio [see the GREK fact sheet].
Global X Debuts NASDAQ ETFs: QQQM, QQQV
by Michael Johnston on December 7
Global X, the firm behind a wide-ranging lineup of exchange-traded funds, announced this week the debut of two funds linked to NASDAQ indexes. The Global X NASDAQ 400 Mid Cap ETF (QQQM) will be linked to an index consisting of the top 400 mid-capitalization domestic and international non-financial securities listed on NASDAQ. The Global X NASDAQ 500 ETF (QQQV) will be linked to an index consisting of 500 of the largest domestic and international non-financial securities listed on NASDAQ.
The two new Global X ETFs will essentially offer additional depth to stocks traded on the NASDAQ; existing products such as the ultra-popular QQQ already focus on the 100 largest NASDAQ-listed companies, a list that is dominated by stocks such as AAPL, MSFT, and GOOG. The NASDAQ tends to be the preferred listing destination for tech companies, though firms in other sectors of the U.S. and international economies are certainly welcome as well. “We are pleased to be pairing with NASDAQ OMX, a recognized leader in the development of innovative indices, to bring these products to market,” said Bruno del Ama, CEO of Global X Funds. “Both new funds expand the coverage beyond the NASDAQ 100 Index, providing greater diversification and possibly capturing the next Apple or Google.”
The largest holdings in QQQV will be Apple (11.6%), Microsoft (6.7%), and Oracle (4.8%). The broad-based NASDAQ fund, like QQQ, will feature a heavy tilt towards tech stocks; this sector represents about 60% of the underlying portfolio. The next largest allocation is to consumer discretionaries (17%), followed by health care (13%). No other sector makes up more than 5% of holdings [see QQQV fact sheet].
QQQM’s portfolio doesn’t feature many household names, but does offer considerably more balance than its top-heavy counterpart. No stock makes up more than about 1.5% of the mid cap fund, with the largest weightings going to Pharmasset and Perrigo Company. QQQM’s tech bias is also not quite as significant; tech stocks make up about 37% of holdings. Other sectors with big weightings include health care (22%), consumer discretionaries (18%), and industrials (10%) [see QQQM fact sheet].
The appeal of these new products may lie not in the securities that are included, but those that are excluded. Specifically, both underlying indexes avoid financial stocks–a corner of the market that has weighed heavily on many index-based equity products in 2011. Every member of the Financials Equities ETFdb Category has lost value in 2011, while most other sectors are actually up on the year.
WisdomTree also offers a couple of “financials free” ETFs; DTN has beaten the S&P 500 by a wide margin so far in 2011, while the International Dividend ex-Financials Fund (DOO) is well ahead of products linked to the MSCI EAFE Index [see Some Surprises In YTD ETF Returns].
Both new NASDAQ ETFs will charge expense ratios of 0.48%. All Global X ETFs are available for commission free trading on the Interactive Brokers platform.
2011: A Year Of ETF Firsts
by Jared Cummans on December 6,
2011 has been arguably one the busiest ever for the ETF industry, as we are on pace to break through 300 new launches for the year. As we rapidly approach 1,400 total funds in the space, it can be a daunting task to try and keep up with the tidal wave of new products that seem to hit the market each week. For those who have been overwhelmed by this year’s debuts, they may be missing out on a number of new and innovative products. Below, we outline the ETF firsts that 2011 brought to better educate investors on the options that currently exist.
First VIX ETFs: ProShares introduced the first true ETFs offering exposure to the VIX, rolling out VIXY and VIXM at the beginning of 2011. Previous ETPs in the Volatility ETFdb Category had all been structured at ETNs.
Managed Futures: WisdomTree rolled out its Managed Futures Strategy Fund (WDTI) which takes an active approach to futures contracts. The fund charges 0.95% and has been holding its own compared to other futures-based funds.
Target Date High Yield Bonds: After discovering that traditional fixed income ETFs have some exposure flaws, Guggenheim took it upon themselves to offer four new high-yield products with clear cut maturities for its investors; BSJC, BSJD, BSJE, BSJF.
Active Bear ETF: A new AdvisorShares product, Active Bear ETF (HDGE), features an actively managed strategy to maintain short positions through out the market. The fund has performed well since its inception but charges 185 basis points to do so.
Leveraged Spread ETFs: 2011 saw the first-ever leveraged spread funds from FactorShares. These products seek to return the spread between two asset classes or indexes with a 2X leverage to make things a bit more interesting. See FSU, FSG, FSE, FSA, and FOL.
Argentina ETF: This year saw Global X release the first product to dedicate itself to the Argentinian economy, the FTSE Argentina 20 ETF (ARGT). The popular South American emerging market features high volatility but also the potential for massive gains for investors.
Asia Bond Fund: One of the most popular new products came from the Asia Local Debt Fund (ALD) which invests in Asian debt using local currencies from countries like South Korea, China, Hong Kong, and many others.
Italian Bonds: With such a volatile year in Europe, the Italian bond ETFs make for an extremely dangerous but potentially very rewarding play on the euro-zone. See ITLY, ITLT.
German Bonds: This year also saw the first bond products focused on Germany hit the market with two from PowerShares in March (BUNT, BUNL), and a third from PIMCO towards the end of the year (BUND).
Japanese Bonds: Keeping kosher with the international bond strategy, PowerShares also released the first fixed income funds to dedicated themselves wholly to the Japanese bond market. See JGBL, JGBT.
Small Cap Germany: The first product to focus itself on the small cap sector of Europe’s most powerful economy came in the form of the Market Vectors Germany Small-Cap ETF (GERJ).
BDC ETNs: Business Development Companies have long been popular among investors, but had never made their mark on teh ETF space. That changed mid-way through the year when UBS launched the E-TRACS Linked to the Wells Fargo Business Development Company Index (BDCS).
Fishing ETF: Global X continued their reputation for innovative products when they launched the Fishing Industry ETF (FISN).
Mexico Small Caps: Another Global X fund, the Mexico Small-Cap ETF (MEXS) offers unique exposure to our neighbors to the south. But with less than $1 million in assets, this fund doesn’t have a good chance of making it to this time next year.
Auto ETFs: After patiently waiting, investors were treated to not one, but two new funds that were focused on the automobile industry. First Trust’s CARZ and Global X’s VROM.
Latin America Bond: Van Eck rolled out the first fund to offer exposure to Latin American debts with the LatAm Aggregate Bond ETF (BONO).
Hong Kong Small Cap: Exposure to the Hong Kong market was hard to come by as far as ETFs were concerned, and small cap allocations were non-existent. That changed with IndexIQ’s IQ Hong Kong Small Cap ETF (HKK).
Investment Disciplines: One of the more intriguing firsts of the year came in the form of investment discipline ETFs, which focus on strategies like low P/E ratios, contrarian investing, and more. See LWPE, GRPC, EQIN, CONG, CNTR, and AGRG.
International Preferred Stock: Preferred stocks have been investor favorites for years as they often have juicy yields. This year saw two international preferred funds launch, Global X’s CNPF and iShares’ IPFF.
Leveraged ETF Firsts: While leveraged funds have been around for quite some time now, 2011 saw new additions that had never entered the levered ETF space. Direxion launched two Russia products (RUSL and RUSS) along with two agribusiness funds (COWL, COWS).
ABC ETF: ABC is an acronym that stands for the three of the biggest commodity-producing nations in the world, Australia, Brazil, and Canada [see Easy-As-ABC ETFdb Portfolio 
] . 2011 saw the first ETF dedicated to these nations with the launch of ABC High Dividend ETF (ABCS).
Hedged Equity Exposure: Though hedged equity exposure had previously been offered by WisdomTree, it was limited to Japan and EAFE. This year saw three more ETF additions to brand new regions, with the Brazil (DBBR), Canada (DBCN), and Emerging Markets (DBEM) products.
Natural Gas & Oil “Contango” ETNs: Natural Gas and Oil ETFs have long been under fire for the contango issues that often came handcuffed to their exposure. This year saw two funds debut that aimed to combat contango for a unique futures strategy: UBS’s GASZ and OILZ.
Emerging Markets Sectors: Sector investing was one of the very first innovations that the ETF industry offered, but it wasn’t until this year that the exposure was offered for emerging markets. EG Shares changed all of that when they rolled out eight sector-based funds that were all focused on emerging markets: VGEM, UGEM, TGEM, QGEM, LGEM, IGEM, HGEM, and GGEM.
Cloud Computing: The tech industry has long been though of as the last remaining growth segment in the U.S., as investors have grown impatient with our economy as of late. The introduction of the very first cloud computing ETF, the First Trust ISE Cloud Computing Index Fund (SKYY) is a play on what many feel to be our next big growth segment. Later in the year, UBS released a leveraged cloud fund with LSKY.
Muni Bond CEF: Closed-ended funds, while different from ETPs, come with their own list of benefits that investors seem to enjoy. This year saw the first-ever muni bond CEF with the launch of Van Eck’s XMPT.
Nikkei 225: Exposure to the Japanese Nikkei 225 Index didn’t exist in the ETF world through the end of 2010. This year saw Precidian debuted NKY, allowing for investors to gain exposure to this ultra-popular equity benchmark.
Merging Markets Mid Cap: With ETFs now being dedicated to countries like Argentina and Colombia, it seemed like only a natural evolution to expand the varying kinds of market cap exposure into emerging markets. The fund that broke the ice was IndexIQ’s EMER.
India Consumer ETF: India is one of the fastest-growing countries in the world and likewise, it has one of the most important economies. This year saw an expansion on exposure to this up-an-coming nation with INCO, the first India consumer fund.
Targeted VIX ETNs: While VIX-based funds have been immensely popular over the last two years, the exposure typically consisted of broad based strategies. 2011, however, saw UBS roll out a long list of targeted VIX funds that focused on a specific maturity date for VIX contracts. See AAVX.
Solid State Drives: Solid state drives (SDDs) utilize microchips to store data, and feature no moving parts, making them much more secure and sturdy than other drives. 2011 saw two products debut to hone in on this niche market with the introduction of SSDD, SSDL.
Wheat Fund: Wheat is one of the most popular agricultural commodities in the world, so it is a wonder that it took so long for an ETF to offer direct exposure. 2011 saw the introduction of Teucrium’s WEAT to give investors the much needed wheat addition to their portfolio.
Soybeans Fund: Another popular agriculture product which is one of the most traded contracts on the CME Group comes form soybeans. Teucrium also broke ground when it released SOYB.
Chinese Bonds: One of the biggest “gold ruses” of the year was the race to offer exposure to Chinese bonds. RMB, from Guggenheim won the first to market crown, followed by DSUM and CHLC from Powershares and Van Eck respectively.
3X Leveraged Gold and Silver: Gold and silver have long been two of the most popular commodity products on the market. So the news of 3X leveraged funds for each metal had investors chomping at the bit before their release this year. See DGLD, UGLD, DSLV, and USLV.
2X Leveraged Platinum and Palladium: Another set of firsts was 2X exposure to the other two precious metals, platinum and palladium. See IPAL, LPAL, IPLT, and LPLT.
Australia Bonds: 2011 was definitely a major year for fixed income firsts as it also saw the launch of the first ever product to offer exposure to the Australian debt market. AUD from PIMCO launched and WisdomTree converted BNZ to AUNZ, turning focus on the land down under.
Canada Bonds: Yet another exposure gap that was filled in came from our neighbors to the north. The very first Canadian bond fund was debuted as CAD.
Eric Wheatley’s Weekly Listed Options Column
Hello everyone,
Got an email last week (just one. *sigh*). Jason asked a few rather interesting questions regarding time and options. Since time value is the least well-understood concept in options trading, I’ll just reprint our correspondance. There, another week’s work avoided.
1) What is the optimum timeframe for writing covered calls?
The erosion of time is one of the weirder aspects to options. Essentially, time value erodes faster as the option approaches expiry. This means that, as a general rule, it is preferable to sell shorter-term options and buy longer-term options. Of course, reality, with its bid-ask spreads and transaction fees plays with this.
Try to sell as short a term as is possible, yet reasonable. There are no hard rules, so you have to evaluate your situation. If you have a large position of a volatile stock, you can sell one-month options without having commissions erode too much of the premium taken in. If you have a smaller position on a bank or an index, three- or six-month options may be more appropriate
2) Is this optimum timeframe the same for volatile stock or less-volatile stock?
A more volatile stock will have higher-priced options. Higher-priced options are more expensive, so you get more cash in, which makes the transaction costs less material so you can sell more often. Note that the options on more volatile stocks may be less liquid and have wider bid-ask spreads also, which work against more frequent selling.
3) What is the optimum timeframe about speculative calls/puts? I found that even though I generally get the trend right, I’m wrong on the timeframe thus the options expire worthless. In order to pay less on the options premiums, I generally have a shorter timeframe on options.
If you are using options to speculate – something I believe is important – you need to include time in your evaluation. When buying options, the rule I’ve always set was to buy the time you need. While buying too short a term can make you lose money, buying too long a term also has its problems. As an example, let’s say the stock makes the anticipated move when your option still has six months to go. The option’s delta will be lower than a nearer-term option, which means that the option’s price may not move all that much, even if the stock moves nicely. On top of it all, higher-volatility options will have even lower deltas than lower-volatility ones, which means the option’s price will be less correlated to that of the stock in the short term.
Sorry I can’t give you a magic key. I’d like to have it myself 
*****
Now, I’ve been asked many times WHY options prices aren’t linearly dependant on time. In other words, why aren’t six-month calls worth six times more than one-month calls? The answer is both mathematical and intuitive. To an options trader, prices aren’t quoted in dollars, but in volatility (while it may sound odd at first glance, volatility is the single variable with which we try to buy low and sell high). Volatility is measured with the standard deviation of returns. If a $50 stock has a $5 standard deviation over the past month, one can intuitively deduce that, while a six-month standard deviation would be higher than $5, it shouldn’t be as high as $30 either (giving the stock an acceptable range of $20 to $80, when over a single month it ranges from $45 to $55 is a little much). As it turns out, to calculate the six-month standard deviation when given the one-month standard deviation, one should multiply it by the square root of the number of periods. In this case, the $5 should be multiplied by the square root of six, which is nearly 2½. While there are other factors at play in pricing options, this is the main reason behind the non-linearity of time value.
Have fun Christmas shopping with your spouses! I know I will. Oh yes.
Éric Wheatley, MBA
Options Analyst, J.C. Hood Investment Counsel
eric@jchood.com
Little known fact about John Charles Hood #9
John Charles Hood naturally secretes antifreeze into his bloodstream when temperatures fall below 0°. Luckily, temperatures rarely go below freezing in British Columbia, otherwise Mr. Hood would be ineligible to drive there under its new blood-alcohol laws.
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Apple only returnee in Fortune’s top 10 stock picks for 2012”. Following is a link to the report:
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Silver Futures (SI) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only.
They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
HAP Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC December 8th 2011
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Tech Talk comment: It’s now available. Great Christmas gift! Following is additional information:
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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December 9th, 2011 at 8:09 am
Good Morning All.
Tony, re: POT, with the 4 below the 9 but yesterdays close to the low side of the 4, does this mean that it should head back to ~$43 this morning ? Thanks.
December 9th, 2011 at 9:03 am
Just wanted to say that I wrote a few notes last night to several people (in response to their posts to me – or to a post they wrote on the board yesterday) – so, for these people, there are posts for you from last night’s board:
Jerry A., Freddebuoy, Slava, gmsa, and tony.
———————————————————————————————
Freddebuoy,
I wrote a reply to you last night but my posts at after 11 pm EST to “tony” are in relation to my post to you a bit earlier (re volaility and the VIX) – so, you might want to have a look at the posts I wrote too to tony last night (3 posts) as they contain info in them that elaborate moreso on what I wrote to YOU in my earlier post last night.
——————————————————————————————–
kay,
thank you for telling me about what that money manager had told you – I always like knowing (and hearing) IF what I’ve said has matched up with the professional guys out there – so, thank you for letting me know that kay
————————————————————————————————————
Happy trading all!!
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 10:12 am
Goldcorp and Barrick are holding hgu back.. too bad.
December 9th, 2011 at 10:13 am
Michael, good job on purchase bbd.b yesterday at the close. Nice gain today. One of bbd’s executives was on bnn last night talking to Howard Green. Sounds like their C series may become popular in China.
December 9th, 2011 at 10:15 am
Eve, if you have a minute, may I please ask for your TA of abx and g (on Toronto). Thanks.
December 9th, 2011 at 10:19 am
Any thoughts on where oil is going today, figured I could make a trade on HOU but not working right now. Thanks, Hniel/Kingston
December 9th, 2011 at 10:21 am
Tony, pot going down farther so obviously I need to re-look at this
would appreciate your comments if/when you have time. Thank you.
December 9th, 2011 at 10:26 am
BNN people are taking a very extended coffee break.. this would never happen on US business networks. So big deal that Rogers and Bell are taking a large stake in Maple Leafs group. Why show it live for 45 freaking minutes on bnn?
December 9th, 2011 at 10:29 am
Slava
The world revolves around Toronto.
December 9th, 2011 at 10:33 am
Hi Slava. Oh my God! Couldn’t agree with you more about BNN. Sure it’s newsworthy, but not THAT newsworthy! It’s interesting that Canadian stocks aren’t doing much today.
December 9th, 2011 at 10:33 am
mick/inv, so true… You should see the view from my 21st floor Yaletown condo right now… Absolutely spectacular view of the sunrise and Mount Baker, so crisp and clear. The sky is is bright orange/yellow and purple.
December 9th, 2011 at 10:37 am
Michael, I bet there are some nice views where you live. The Chief! What a spectacular looking mountain. Just breathtaking. I remember seeing it for the first time when I first moved to Canada. I was very impressed since I grew up on the “Great European Plateau” (which implies very very flat landscape).
December 9th, 2011 at 10:40 am
Eve, how are you this morning? By the way, did you notice that StagDeflation’s comment was removed? It was right above my response to him and last night kam and i noticed it wasn’t there anymore.
December 9th, 2011 at 10:42 am
Eve, by the way, I was thinking of picking up some COG for a trade but now that it’s gone below $80 I’ll wait to see if it holds $79. Most other energy stocks are up today so it’s not a very good sign for COG, is it..
December 9th, 2011 at 10:44 am
Tony
Have some question about day trade based on 4/9/18MA on 5min chart.
I’ve been buying when 4MA cross up 9MA the last two days, it gave me good entry. but i found that sometimes, it is better to buy when the price retreats back to 9MA and 18MA. because short term (within a few mins) retreats do not leave even a dent on 4MA. that is the best buying opps but hard to catch. it requires hand fingers and hands:) and fast computer too.
How you buy after 4MA cross up 9MA?
Do you wait until 4MA cross up 18MA? I do for most of my buying. but sometimes it is a little late for rally?
Have you ever bought when 4MA is still below 9MA when you feel it is too oversold on 5 min chart? or you feel that price has got support from the lowest a few times?
Happy trading today. which side are you in today?
Kelly
December 9th, 2011 at 10:46 am
Slava
I am envious of your view!
December 9th, 2011 at 10:52 am
mick/inv, you have nothing to complain about
You live in North Van (and probably in a townhouse or a house which is a much better accommodation in my opinion than a small condo in Yaletown).
December 9th, 2011 at 10:53 am
Ray, trading hgu/hgd today by any chance?
December 9th, 2011 at 10:54 am
Paul
If you saw my post 56 on the tsx yesterday I mentioned the end of the tail we would retest it also goes for pot.
So today looking at both the tsx and NYSE POT symbol, yesterday the bar was still holding the 4MA so it had more downside, but today it decided to run away, so this low is a buying opportunity.
Pot low could be 38.90
and for Pot.to as for TSX we are right there at support level, so I would consider this as a buying opportunity.
December 9th, 2011 at 10:58 am
Jeanne
about SRQ.un.to
they payout ratio is 146% this means they are overpaying, yes 18% looks good but it will be cut because they are paying more than they are making. mentionned it yesterday to Teri.
if you get an opportunity to see dennis mitchel on bnn this is a definite no-no
December 9th, 2011 at 10:59 am
Thank you Tony.
December 9th, 2011 at 11:04 am
Slava: No. I am trading Oil SCO/UCO. I have been playing the bounce off both all week. It looks like we are heading higher in oil and the overall market. Hopefully gains can hold and we don’t give it back at the end of the day. What’s your take on the Gold move today?
December 9th, 2011 at 11:04 am
Slava,
Good morning
you are right about barrick and goldcorp.Look like both want to test their 200ma +50ma for abx in US.Came within 20 cents for abx.GG already jumped back off its 200ma of 49.80. Believe it or not canadian listings are just ‘followers’ of US ones unless main S/R like 20ema,50ma,200ma extra. Example- When GG jumped back from 49.78 , g.to traded down to 50.93.I don’t see 50.93 anywhere as support.So better to watch what older brothers do in NYSE.Another thing is that US listed also have free live charts everywhere and canadian one’s are only on very few sites.Lot easier to day trade watching US listing and buy canadian at same time when US listed find support.
However The way they are trading today they just want a reason to go down.If SPX goes down GDX will be way more down IMO.So Unless something changes ABX and GG might break their 200ma.:(
ps- As I finish writing this gold has moved towards 1721 and gdx reaching its 50ma 57.78 we will see what happens.4ma for all of majors are trading below 9 and 18ma as of now.
December 9th, 2011 at 11:05 am
Tony/Eve: Is this a QE in a different form in Europe, if so the markets should rally for days. Your thoughts please and thanks.
December 9th, 2011 at 11:13 am
Anybody trading HVU today?
December 9th, 2011 at 11:14 am
Ray, I’m holding hgu, wanted to pick up 5k shares for a trade when it started moving off its lows this a.m. but didn’t get filled and decided not to chase it. I sold my FM today which I bought yesterday near the day’s low. So baby steps.. I triggered $20k in losses in the last two days on my failed juniors, need to trigger another $60k in order not to pay any income tax on the realized gains this year. I still can’t imagine why I put so much money in spec stocks back in the spring and didn’t cut my losses when they were much less. One expensive year indeed.
December 9th, 2011 at 11:18 am
Hi Michael,
fr.to on jet fuel again today.Opened up 5% but came down fast and now back up again to 17, over 50ma.Is their any news? However all silver stocks are higher too.
December 9th, 2011 at 11:19 am
Ray, I think kam summarized the views on gold stocks very well in his post #23. In general, I think gold itself should do okay over the next 6 weeks. Too much uncertainty out there and Europe will obviously need to “create” some euros to inject liquidity, etc. So money supply keeps expanding, can’t be good for paper currencies.
December 9th, 2011 at 11:26 am
I was just thinking that those with a lot of capital must be extremely frustrated and itching to get back into the market. CSBs are paying 0.50%, high interest savings accounts around 1.30%, locked in GICs around 1.60%.. per year! Minus taxes. So we may see capital move back into stocks as soon as the geopolitcal situation gets a little better.
December 9th, 2011 at 11:32 am
Kelly
I have mentionned it previously, the 4 crosses the 9 while after it fell off a cliff, it will retest the 18 resistance before pulling back to testing the 9 now support and this is when you get low risk high reward,
But at times if market are bearish, you think it will move higher but you can get sidetracked it happens the 9 or 18 will be resistance levels, such as in a bull market the 9 and 18 could be support.
Also this is why you want to see the 9 cross above the 18 to consider it a bullish sign
here is a chart of cat on a 60 min time frame,
you will see exactly what I mean
December 9th, 2011 at 11:33 am
oops here is the link Kelly
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CAT&p=60&b=5&g=0&id=p03394364924&a=250618315
December 9th, 2011 at 11:38 am
Hi kam. No news that I’ve seen on First Majestic. Indeed, it has been on some sort of roller coaster ride this week, whereas Silver Wheaton has been relatively quiet.
December 9th, 2011 at 11:53 am
Tony
On RY.to I see resistance at about the $50.50 level off a weekly chart !
On keltner it is riding just over top of keltner line – bearish !
Fast Stochastic topped out pretty well
Shawdow on macd showing a decline
Riding on top of R1 – but R1 for the last 3 months has been declining
BUT
On weekly chart – price is away from 4 (top) by about $4, however 4 and 9 turned upwards heading into 18 – bullish ?
On daily 4 seems to have turned east ( sideways and hopefully down soon ) plus a couple gaps down to about $47
to fill – would this explain the concept that price should head back down to 4 on weekly hence the discussion of a short ?
There is talk about more capital moving back into the market ?
This afternoon should tell more about how next Monday should open, so are you seeing what I am seeing technically
and are the markets to dangerous to hold over the weekend ( short anyway )
Regards
Riptor
I too will send you a Christmas gift for all your help – I will send you and e mail address and
get you to give me a mailing address to somewhere !! so I can send you a good old Timmy’s card
or OK a Starbucks card if you really prefer that
Seriously Thank-you
December 9th, 2011 at 11:58 am
Hi everybody,
So this is my 2 cents that may help some people here since I am not a TA expert but I thought this might be something of help coz I saw alot of people that ask this question. Where can we get a chart that show real time and can adjust to use the MA 4,9,18 that Tony introduced. Well if you go to tdameritrade us side then I think you can open an account with them for free. I have an account with them that I opened about 10 years back but doesn not have any money in it but I use their tools and charts for free. So try opening an account with them but they might not open an account for you if u mention that you live in canada so maybe put Zimbaboy or something lol.
Rami
December 9th, 2011 at 11:59 am
Eve,
Regarding your thoughtful comments on volatility last night. I read them in a sleepy, late evening way. This morning I was reading Brooke Thackray’s (& Bruce Lindsay’s) book “Time In, Time Out”. I think it’s his first book on Seasonal Investing. One of their building blocks for their concept was seasonal volatility. Thanks to your timely comments, I was more closely tuned into this important factor.
December 9th, 2011 at 12:02 pm
Slava,
Would it not be worth your while to talk to your accountant to see if selling your losses to offset your gains?
December 9th, 2011 at 12:12 pm
Rami/AB #34 – Thank you for that Rami, I will certainly be looking into that possibility!
December 9th, 2011 at 12:20 pm
Hi kam and others.
Nasty gas is getting even nastier! It’s amazing that HNU.to jumped to over $10 yesterday after the inventory draw down, but dropped below $9 this morning.
Is anyone trading or watching cocoa (NIB)? Don mentioned it a few weeks ago and it’s way oversold.
December 9th, 2011 at 12:25 pm
Michael
If they did not keep reverse spliting HNU it would be worth nothing by none.
The safe bet seems to HND.
December 9th, 2011 at 12:27 pm
Hi CJ. I can’t believe that the Pickle Barrel is still there (I’m assuming that you went to the one north of the Eaton Centre). I used to go there while in High School! I miss the great delis around and along Bathurst, but nothing beats Schwartz’s in Montreal.
December 9th, 2011 at 12:32 pm
NTR
Michael #40 – No the one we frequent and enjoy is the original just off Leslie south of Steeles; the one with the nasty Latte was at Vaughb Mills. We have also often joined friends at the Yorkdale one!
December 9th, 2011 at 12:35 pm
Thanks, Eve, for your reply. It tends to be my style to re-invent the wheel. But, interestingly, when I do, it tends to make the subject stick more solidly.
I added $VIX to the chart that I presented yesterday and although it is not exactly the same as the standard deviation since VIX is based on options and standard deviation is on the actual price changes of the index, it is very close, the difference being immaterial.
StockCharts Chart School has an interesting article on VIX and how it can be used. And they suggest a book, “Short Term Stategies that Work” by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez. Has anybody read it and can you recommend it? Certainly in this market, it is very difficult to trend trade since there are few bullish trends to trade.
December 9th, 2011 at 12:41 pm
You are welcome CJ
December 9th, 2011 at 12:47 pm
Freddieboy,
Thank you for introducing the idea of volatility and thanks for the comparison of VIX to standard deviation. I was wondering if the “futures” aspect would off-set the curves. Brooke used standard deviation for his investigation.
December 9th, 2011 at 12:54 pm
So I think cp.to is finally starting to show signs of weakness.
gmsa, Ray – do you think it’s a good short?
December 9th, 2011 at 12:55 pm
Rami/AB
I was complaining to TD Waterhouse yesterday that TD Ameritrade has great charts and I asked why we do not have the US system available to us in Canada .
I ask others to complain as well,just maybe the B’S will give us a better platform to trade with.They claim I need a million $ for a better platform other than their frequent trader platform that I think stinks compared to the US platforms.You don’t need a million in the US to get great charts from TD.
Just my 2 cents worth.
December 9th, 2011 at 1:00 pm
Tony
How often do you use 60 min charts?
I recently only used 5min/daily charts for day trade.
Kelly
December 9th, 2011 at 1:03 pm
Paul-R;
Freecharts.com , Rol lew has really good set up. Yes. For better platform, I paid for the service.
December 9th, 2011 at 1:13 pm
Slava
GS, C would be my next short! I am waiting the time.
December 9th, 2011 at 1:15 pm
larry,
hnu will not get to ‘nothing’ but I get your point.
Michael,
hnu looks tempting but it also looked that last week when it was trading around 10.50!better to stay away and only put money which you gonna lose at Riverrock casino.
It might get some support around 3.25 and spring might be coiling for winter blast off but won’t be too much.demand might be coming more alongside coal switching for power generation.no need to look for bottom though.Even daytrade is not easy if you don’t know the market and what time weather models run during daytime which cost lots of money and I can’t spend that unless I trade natgas for living.
December 9th, 2011 at 1:15 pm
traderstation would cost about hundreds per month for the service.
December 9th, 2011 at 1:18 pm
Lin,
I use the free version of Freecharts.Thanks Lin
TD Waterhouse has a great system call thinkorswim for free.I think TD canada should offer this as well.Canadians get nothing from our banks compared to what US customers get.
We will only get better services if we complain.
December 9th, 2011 at 1:25 pm
I don’t like CAD service at all. They don’t have much inventry to short as well. Ron/BC metion about Quest Trade. Should you take look!
December 9th, 2011 at 1:28 pm
Michael and other hnu trader,
just adding p.s. to post-50
Remember what I said some days ago natgas.It is called ‘WIDOWMAKER’.And it is if one bets on ‘seasonal’ or winter demand etc. on natgas.No seasonality on it any more as per equityclock charts as shale gas is the game changer and those charts are old which should be updated with this structural change in supply of gas. hnu is trading at $2.24 if ‘not’ adjusted for reverse split.It was trading over $4 in sept. when few bought thinking of ‘seasonality’.You have lost 50% capital in less than 3 months.Stay away folks.On the good side my natgas bill is also low too.:)
December 9th, 2011 at 1:28 pm
Lin and other trading specialists, so if you look at the chart of fm.to for today, how likely is it to come down? It opened at $19.50, proceeded to reach $20.88 and is now stuck in this $20.70 range. So it’s up +6.5% which is much more than other copper stocks on the day.
December 9th, 2011 at 1:29 pm
Lin,
I used Quest trade but they have extra charges that added up to be more expensive than the account I have with TD
December 9th, 2011 at 1:45 pm
Migdu,
Thank you so much for letting me know my posts last night re the VIX were helpful for you
I always like to hear when I’ve been able to give info on here that has been helpful for others (as I never know if things I’m saying is just already known for the most part, for the majority of people on here). So, thank you Migdu for letting me know 
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 1:46 pm
Oh sorry, PS Migdu,
Thank you too for telling me about that book – that is good info to know
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 1:50 pm
Slava, thanks! FM.to is sideway now. If intraday, I will wait today if sell off for weekend happened and take profit. But you want hold for next few days then put you stoploss under 19.
December 9th, 2011 at 1:54 pm
Hi Freddebuoy,
Oh I thought for sure you would have already known about the VIX – so, I am so surprised to hear that you didn’t know of it! I’m glad to hear though that your hard work of doing the SD for the volatility lines up quite well with the VIX – as to me, that just reaffirms further, the discussion we were having about the BP index with respect to volatility (from yesterday). So, thanks Fredde for taking the time to do that SD calculation (I had to do those kind of things in my psychology degree in 2004 in my stats class – oh fun
– no, I love math, so it was ok 
– I just don’t like doing stats so much like “the null hypothesis” etc.). So, good to know your SD lines up well with it – but yes, easier I guess to just check the VIX and see where its trading to guage the volatility in the markets 
as for the book you mention: No, i myself, have not heard of it – so, I can’t comment on it at all. Maybe someone else on here though whom has traded for a very long time (like Canuck 2004 or Ray-Kitchener or Wayne or Ron/BC if he were posting here) would know of this book and could comment on it?!
Ok, thanks Fredde
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 1:59 pm
Lin, thank you so much. Actually I was thinking of going short fm.to for the rest of the day.
Lin, one more question – what do you see for abx and goldcorp? I’ve been asking about these stocks a lot lately since I bought hgu the day before yesterday, not working out too well so far. Thanks Lin.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:04 pm
A few people on the board have emailed me since I left my email address on here (and no, i have NO ISSUE with that AT ALL!!! as long as it’s from people I have good relations with on this board OR from anyone who doesn’t feel comfortable in writing on the board but would like to discuss things anyway – I’m open to hearing from anyone – BUT, negative kind of emails will be deleted and the person blocked – so my invitation isn’t simply a “BLANKET” OPEN invitation as it does have a caveat
) – and yesterday, before Kay had asked for an opinion of holding bear ETF’s overnight into today, another person from the board had emailed me to ask me the same thing! This is the response I gave:
yes buying the bears before we hear from europe would definitely be too risky because europe may come out with some big big thing that the markets love and this could pop the markets to go above 1270!! BUT, i don’t think the pop would be sustained into next week – but that pop could trash the bear etf’s. and with the pullback today, it might mean the spx is “gearing” itself to do a big pop up tomorrow to go to that 1270 area. i liken it to a slingshot: it pulls back, way back, just to let go and pop – there it goes!! the sling shot gets shot up! if the spx had stayed relatively even today as it has all week, i would have moreso expected that the spx would sell off tomorrow on news from europe – BUT with this pullback today, it looks like the slingshot effect taking place – i say this term as i’ve seen this kind of thing occur often before – in indexes and in stocks too! yet no, i’ve never used that term before on the board even though i do have it in my head and have seen it occur so often that it does make me think of a sling shot.
————————————————————-
I’m only sharing this email I sent yesterday because it discusses something that I’ve often seen in both stocks and indexes BUT have never written about on here (it’s just based on my own observation – this isn’t a term that is used in the professional world of trading) – and that is: “the slingshot effect” – so, if you ever see me writing the slingshot effect in the future, then anyone who reads THIS post of today, will know what it is I’m meaning when I use it
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 2:10 pm
To the Vancouver people on here:
Just out of curiousity, what is your gasoline price right now out there? Gasoline here in Toronto area is $1.17 (the lowest it has been in many months) – so, just wondering what your gas price is out there? And, is it at the lowest level it has been at in months? (like since the Spring).
Thanks all!
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 2:10 pm
Slava , welcome.GOlD resistance is at 1730 zone. Once hit there I will short it. ABX watch out 48.90 and G at 49. Well, if you hold theses stock you need use to $$$$k down and down each day. Buy low sell high for these day.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:11 pm
Slava: You asked me about shorting CP. I would not at this time, especially today. Markets are happy, Monday may continue with VIX moving towards the magic line of 26. CP is still in an upward trend. All the indicators are still pointing North according to what I see. (RSI, MACD, Momentum, etc. I would wait on this one until the new year.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:12 pm
Eve
I am glad to see your happy face . I have note for you. I know you are busy. You don’t have to reply.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:15 pm
Paul,
When I had my account with TDameritrade US I had only $10,000 or less in my account and I had all the function to use through them. US traders definetly get better tools at a much lower cost.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:16 pm
Gas here in Calgary 104. but disels 125. Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 2:19 pm
Michael: Did you buy Oil at the close yesterday? Nice pop today. I am presently in UCO and will hold for a swing trade. Oil appears to be heading back towards that $100 mark. It’s Black Gold at this time.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:21 pm
Max options pain for next Friday’s options’ expiration for the SPX is at 1240
(taken from the Max options pain calculator) (this calculator can be off by quite a bit though – so, caution is prudent – BUT in the last 2 months, it’s been accurate for the SPX for each months’ Options’ expiration Friday).
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 2:21 pm
Eve: Toronto – you are getting gouged, In Kitchener we are paying 1.13 and in some spots even lower to the 1.10 range. Mind you, Big City versus Little City.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:24 pm
Hi Lin,
thanks Lin
Re your post at #66 – you have a note for me?? Oh – where Lin? Your note at #68 you mean? or a different note somewhere?
thanks Lin
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 2:26 pm
Eve, I haven’t used my car in three weeks so I don’t even know.. it’s all skytrain and walking for me now that I live in Yaletown. mick/inv will know.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:28 pm
Michael, my Mom is happy – I bought her 3,000 shares of bbd.b at $3.64 yesterday, sold today at $3.73 and told her that it’s part of her Christmas gift.. then she says – “what about the losses from before”? I said “those don’t count towards the gift”…lol
December 9th, 2011 at 2:29 pm
Just got off the phone with TDW. New platform coming out in 2012 that will be very similar to TDAmeritrade.
Gas in Edmonton $.98/liter.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Eve
I posted it at yeasterday.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:31 pm
Slava. LULU is really good one for intraday trade.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:35 pm
Re gas:
Slava,
Oh ok – thanks Slava for letting me know! Michael I guess would know too?? (as would mick/nv I mean).
Lin and Ron/AB,
WOW!!! You guys have it made out there in Alberta for gasoline!!! You lucky ones out there
Thanks you 3 for the replies
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 2:36 pm
Lin,
Oh I see. Do you know around what time on the board yesterday (in EST time) you posted it??
Thanks Lin
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 2:38 pm
Hi Eve. It’s $1.25 here PLUS the $0.15 “premium” for the better gas. I think on the Island, Ron/BC is paying around $1.11. Now why would it be cheaper on an island that has no oil?!
December 9th, 2011 at 2:40 pm
Ken/AB
I’ve been complaining for over one year including today and last week.
I wonder why I was not told about the change.
Will it be free as in the US do you know?
December 9th, 2011 at 2:41 pm
Hi Ray – Kitchener. Nope. I was looking at buying Suncor because it was getting hit yesterday, but couldn’t pull the trigger.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:42 pm
Eve. #228 yesterday. Sorry!
December 9th, 2011 at 2:42 pm
Hi Michael,
Oh ok – thanks for that info Michael! Is it at its cheapest right now since around the Spring this year?
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Hi Slava. For a real gift you should buy your mum CMG! Cramer was promoting it again this week. I prefer planes, trains and automobiles (BBD and MG)! Mind you, it looks like the market wants to melt up today, so I may sell some BBD.B.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:49 pm
Ah ok Lin – thank you for letting me know
I will check it out 
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 2:53 pm
Thank you Lin for your note on yesterday’s board Lin – I really appreciate your very kind words
You are very sweet for saying Lin 
So, thank you so much 
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 2:53 pm
Hi Eve. It’s been slowly dropping over the past few months, and probably the lowest since the spring. Our prices don’t move as much as Vancouver’s, since the big city retailers play that silly game of lowering the prices throughout the late afternoon and evening, and then jacking them up in the morning.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:56 pm
Canuck,
Are you familiar with Horizon Pro ETF called HEX?
Enhanced Income ETF.
Currently paying 17.7% dividend with a beta of 1.09
December 9th, 2011 at 2:59 pm
Kam: Thanks for your comments on nat gas. Is it too late to short.
Eve: Question to you on shorting was bad timing, sold holdings yesterday. This market is up by more today than loss yesterday, anyway it hasn’t broke out to 1270 as yet maybe next week.
December 9th, 2011 at 2:59 pm
Hi Tony,
I tried going to the Montreal Stock Exchange site for options. You mentioned in previous posts about checking options activity to determine possible support and resistance, as well as to determine if something is going on with a stock (eg. QUX).
Is there a way to check this out without going through each option on each stock individually? I can’t seem to find a list.
Thanks
Wendy
December 9th, 2011 at 3:01 pm
Eve,
Pleasure! Have a great weekend!
December 9th, 2011 at 3:01 pm
Hi Eve and Ken/AB,
1.02 per litre in Calgary.
0.98 in Edmonton, that’s the best so far! Haven’t seen that in Calgary for some time.
December 9th, 2011 at 3:03 pm
Michael, actually I shorted CMG today, too premature by the looks of it. Also, it tends to go up on Monday so I may short more then. I just can`t buy into this story at this price. Perhaps if it comes down to $280 or under it would be slighly more reasonable.
December 9th, 2011 at 3:03 pm
Paul-R
The new TDW platform will be free. Supposedly the new platform will be the best platform out there. The rep I talked to has seen it and was impressed. Thingorswim is intended for option traders. I don’t do options and do not short individual stocks.
December 9th, 2011 at 3:04 pm
Michael,
Re: BBD
That was a great purchase, congratulations!
December 9th, 2011 at 3:08 pm
Michael, also, take a look at CMG`s volume.. the movement in the stock price it totally manipulated. Wait until January, I think it will come down a lot. Valuation is ridiculous, it`s just a burrito place. Taco Bell is very similar.
December 9th, 2011 at 3:09 pm
Other then BBD, has anyone taken a flyer on the so called seasonals like POT,CFP,TCK.B, …?
December 9th, 2011 at 3:14 pm
#89- Ric…nope… as a rule I hold NO ETFs in my RRSP… they are a packaged product and like mutual funds, too popular. I take my chances on good stock picking of individual names. Right now I like GE-NYSE going forward (not today) as it is a proxy for the US economy…eventually the US will move forward. Again 2.5% to 5% max.
I do use ETFs in my margin account for short to medium duration, swing trades and the like. But I don’t use that one. Don’t like that chart…humm…have not researched it tho, so know nothing about it.
December 9th, 2011 at 3:15 pm
Ken/AB
Thanks Ken
May be all the complaining paid off.
December 9th, 2011 at 3:16 pm
Hi Kay,
Oh I sent that email yesterday at a time when the SPX was around 1240 yesterday – so, it jumping up to 1270 today would have meant a 30 point gain from that point yesterday when I wrote that email (it was just an arbitrary number I chose just to illustrate what I meant by “the slingshot effect” – going up today by 20 points is just as good and I would consider that kind of move as “the slingshot effect” for today from yesterday’s sell off). It’s just a typical thing that I’ve seen occur time and time again with both stocks and indexes – and that’s what I have termed in my own head “the slingshot effect” – so as I wrote about it yesterday in an email to someone from here, I just thought I’d share it anyway with the board as it did come today (just as I had “thought” yesterday afternoon, that it would). So, 1270 was just an arbitrary number I chose Kay – I wasn’t meaning to suggest that the SPX would go to that number today – especially when the 200 day MA is now at 1263. But as I wrote in that email, I don’t think the jump up will be sustained into next week – BUT, I still do expect the last 2 weeks of Dec to be positive weeks.
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 3:21 pm
Hi Michael,
Ah ok – thanks for letting me know
that’s what I was thinking too due to it being the lowest here since around the Spring.
Hi Ron/AB,
THank you too for letting me know
Like I wrote earlier, you lucky people you (out there in Alberta that is 
).
Thanks guys
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 3:21 pm
Thank you Lin – you too Lin
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 3:23 pm
Hi Slava. I don’t really follow the American restaurants in great detail, tho love a free coffee at Ronald McDonalds. Here’s Cramer’s thesis on CMG and others:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/45588874
December 9th, 2011 at 3:24 pm
Eve: Quiet a few times the SPX attempted to break thru the 200 DMA. As per your post above doesn’t look like the SPX will make it thru again. I always make the mistake of looking at the current SPX number vs MA. Bye the way I like that term “slingshot” described what happened to a ‘T’. Good luck with your trade. Do you think its best to exit longs today. Thanks.
December 9th, 2011 at 3:24 pm
re:15 minute canadian delay
eve and others
i am a subscriber to stockcharts. individual canadian stocks are shown with 15 minutes delay.
canadian indexes are shown in real time with $ being the first letter in the symbol:for example, $tsx.
a good weekend to all
December 9th, 2011 at 3:29 pm
Ken/AB,
Glad to see someone who trade stocks here from Edmonton coz I live in Edmonton too
December 9th, 2011 at 3:29 pm
Paul-R and Ken/AB,
Thanks so much for guys for that info on TDW – I haven’t heard of ot myself – so, I’m now excited to see what’s coming too! My very close friend at TDW (my ex bf from when I was 20 to 23), I was out for dinner and drinks with him this week and he told me there are A LOT of changes going on right now at TDW – like John Cee (not sure how his name is spelled??) (he’s a big top management guy like the President maybe?? I can’t recall what my friend told me his title is) is being let go from TDW – and so is Patricia Lovette Reid too (she’ll be going to BCE TV I think he told me – something like that – so, her show of Money Talks will no longer be sponsored by TDW – BUT, as she’s going to a TV affiliated new employer, her show may still be on TV somewhere?? like still on BNN maybe?? not sure – my friend wasn’t sure either). He said these shake ups are taking effect in 2012. He told me there will be new things coming too for the client in 2012 – so, I guess that was one of the things. So, lots of change out of TDW for 2012 will be coming! Hopefully, all good for the client!!
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 3:36 pm
Hi Ron/AB and Slava. So far my BBD purchase has been lucky. I’ve been eyeing it since I sold at $4.26 in October, and was adament that I was going to pay less than $3.60, and ended up buying at a somewhat oversold $3.59. So it wasn’t the most technically sound purchase, but I have found with this silly stock that technicals don’t always work…and now it’s dropping!
December 9th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
Kelly K and Riptor
As I have said in the past a 5min chart is just to scap quarters and dimes off the bottom,
It is a tool used mostly on a microscale, this is why you need bigger charts daily and weekly and monthly charts will give you a sense where the markets will go If you use a 5min chart you need to know what the big picture is telling you.
but in this harsh environment, a 60min chart could be a good tool to be in and out on a daily basis,
this is like the SnP monthly chart it as clearly indicated we could will be going lower,
the 4MA (1229) has crossed below both the 9 (1269) and the 18(1238) and price has retested the 9 know it a matter of time for the 9 to cross below the 18 we are talking 30 points once the 9 goes below the 18 hell will be loose
December 9th, 2011 at 3:42 pm
Hi Kay,
Re the slingshot effect – yes, that’s how I came up with it as it just described it to a “” (like you wrote Kay) as to how often I have seen this occur wth so many stocks and the indexes themselves over the pas year especially. I’ve also referred to it in the past few months as “it’s gearing up”… as in “it’s gearing up to POP – like, pulling back, pulling back, to takke a run for it [the price target] and pop up to run right through it!) – so, like a slingshot does LOL.
Yes, always best to try and remember to check the MA’s with the index and with ETF’s and stocks too (especially the 4 day for daily moves) and then the 50 and 200 day MA’s for longer term trends. These will give guidance as to where things “might” go in the short term and in the intermediae term too!
As for Monday:
well, holding over the weekend these days (just my opinion is all), is not so much of a good idea as we just can never know what “may” come out over the weekend! OR how the news of today may be digested over the weekend such that the markets feel on Monday, “nope – not enough out of Europe, so time to sell down again”. That’s only how “I” view thinhgs though – others may be feel differently AND may feel comfortable enough to hold over the weekend – but for myself, no. Plus, the 4 day rght now for the SPX is at 1252 – so, we could easily come down by just a bit on Monday to get to that level BUT then bounce up from there to get to the 200 day MA again – BUT, maybe fall lower again?? Just cannot know for sure – so, that’s why I feel these days it’s almost safest to just trade in a day rather than buy and hold overnight – but again, that’s just me and how “I” feel on it – others may feel much differently. So, it’s an individual thing for sure to make that kind of decision Kay
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 3:43 pm
Lin,
SWI and TLEO have nice big moves today. ISRG may lift off very soon.
December 9th, 2011 at 3:47 pm
Hi novice investor,
Yes, we discussed that very thing re the TSX and cdn stocks on stockcharts – discussed yesterday on here
Thanks though n. i.
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 3:47 pm
Olds at 99cents.
Virtual Brokers is also coming out with a new platform. Some of the free things are depth of the market, options,futures,market movers, heat maps that can be drilled down into sectors and insider fillings. Cool thing is that you can click on each icon and it will all be on one page that you can scroll up or down.
December 9th, 2011 at 3:51 pm
Eve: Thanks for your comments. Even though I know daytraders existed for a long time but seems like most traders turn into day trades now. Its the way to go. Buy and hold has so much more risk in this environment. I think I need to do a course on daytrade soon. Thanks again Eve and have a wonderful weekend.
December 9th, 2011 at 3:55 pm
Riptor
I identified you in my previous cmment to kelly so that you can see a daily scale is short term trend, weekly mid term trend and monthly is long term trend.
you can have a 4/9 cross on a short term scale but it will only be lived while in the channel.
probably heard this ususally price will move in a channel up down or sideways. so If you put a daily chart into a weekly chart who s moving upwards you could be buying the bottom on and selling the tops of the channel that you have drawn by using a daily chart you could clearly see when you reach the real bottom because as we know the bottom could be 1 $ higher and we missed the move
look at aapl monthly chart I told Rachel about it wednesday night this one moves for 6months at a time in a channel, just in 2011 it had two channels 330 to 360 until july and since then 360 to 400, and if true the channel should end soon and we will eventually know if people are bullish of Tim Cooke.
RY opinion will follow.
December 9th, 2011 at 3:58 pm
Ken, Rami
I am from Edmonton also. Nice to hear from you.
December 9th, 2011 at 3:58 pm
Kay,
yes, exactly right kay these days – buy and hold really is dead these days (for now anyway). A day trading course might be a good way to go kay – i think there are some free day trading courses out there plus free seminars online too.
Have a great weekend too kay
thank you 
eve
December 9th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
Eve: With stockcharts.com, do you know how pivot points are calculated? When I plotted them on one of the charts I track UCO, they do not appear correct versus what I get using the pivot calculator. Tks.
December 9th, 2011 at 4:03 pm
Hi, Sky
Yes. Keep eyes on them. ISRG is my one of ATM. Here is other one. RL.Ralph Lauren Corp if price is above 150.Long.
I have done my week! Have a great weekend! Sky and everyone. loloololoo
December 9th, 2011 at 4:09 pm
Wendy
I know there is a monthly report from the m-x, but you must suscribe and I think there is a fee to it but you will get this at the end of the month.
What I tend to do is to look at the top 10 most active of the day, that you can find in the bottom left of the web page.
QUX has been there since the tender offer, and I think price will be higher probably 18$ there are option calls at 15 for april so people don’t know when a new bidder will come in but are betting if it does it will be higher than 15, plus there are speculation in the 18$ calls.
today ENB and PMG are the two odd men out
PMG with an 18$ target for next friday,
ENB this is more intersting 13000 contracts with a 38$ target for jan. very feasible.
December 9th, 2011 at 4:12 pm
Hi Ray-Kitchener,
Yes I do! They are calculated based upon the prior month’s high low/ opening closing prices of the stock – so, that’s why using the daily pivot calculator gives you different pivot points than what you see on stockcharts
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 4:16 pm
Thanks Eve. Cheers. TGIF.
December 9th, 2011 at 4:18 pm
My pleasure Ray
Yes, TGIF 
Have a great weekend Ray
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 4:24 pm
Tony, thanks again for your thoughts on POT this morning. I’m in @ $40.80 and its going the right direction.
December 9th, 2011 at 4:27 pm
Ray and Eve,
Here are three charts of USO on stockcharts with daily, 60min, and 10min bars. Pivots for the daily chart are based on the previous month, pivots on the 60min chart are based on the previous week, and pivots on the 10min chart is based on the previous day. So the 10min chart should be the same pivot data that you get when you use the daily pivot calculator.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=D&b=9&g=0&id=p32001516611
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=60&b=9&g=0&id=p55818581787
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=USO&p=10&b=9&g=0&id=p08334260355
December 9th, 2011 at 4:31 pm
Hi, Kay and others:
I still hold some bull longs some very good stocks. Not very much short, I trade option for shorting, I perfer more CONFIRMTIOM for it, Timing is so important for option trader.
We have get day up and day down. Like yesterday, I was on the bears ride sametimes I hold my longs to hedge. End of yesterday, I sold my bear.
The most important is TAKE profit and don’t let winning trade trun to loss.
I am more longer term trader. Usually, like last couple years, I just did a few trade a year , I didn’t glue on PC until Ron/BC showed up on this board.
Now, I rutine base has been changed, everyday in the morning,kiss my kids and hubby and check market. Maket is really very tough.
Market is on the Year-End Rally. These Pro are very busy to make their sheet looks better. Many indicators doesn’t support BIG BULL. Especially TSX. There might be some News bummpy the market like yesterday. After new year there would be other LOW. All the best!:)
December 9th, 2011 at 4:39 pm
I posted this link last week or so, but in case anybody missed it, here it is again:
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/pivot_points/pivot_points.php
It is for daily pivot points; you just have to type in the symbol and it calculates it for you.
December 9th, 2011 at 4:40 pm
Awesome post Lin
Thanks for taking the time to write that for everyone on here
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 4:41 pm
S&P 500 chart….
The index’ failure to break-out above its 200 DMA after repeated attempts is not a bearish thing, in fact it’s quite bullish. It is showing that the index wants to rally, and it is looking for a “reason” to rally, an excuse…..
I think the market is now suffering from “headline exhaustion” is is starting to ignore the daily news…..
I remember a similar chart on Noranda years ago after it rallied from a 52 week low upon cutting its dividend… it kept bumping its head on that 200 DMA resistance repeatedly over several weeks, I forget if it was 3 or 5 times…. but eventually it broke out and rallied strongly above its 200 DMA, shortly after, an offer came to buy it out, and it rallied even more… in the end almost a double above its original 200 DMA resistance. A virtual melt-up…. happened very quickly too….
I’m not saying the S&P 500 will do that, I’m just saying that repeated attempts to break-out of a 200 DMA resistance is NOT bearish, it is quite the opposite.
My old broker once said: ” if you miss the top 10 days of the market, you miss the year”. Who knows when those top ten days will come….lol
December 9th, 2011 at 4:44 pm
Hi Derek,
I missed your post from last week on this! AWEESOME site!!! I just checked it for a stock I watch daily to see how it did today in relation to today’s pivot calcs – and it did just as predicted on that pivot calculator! I’ve used a different daily pivot calculator in the past but I didn’t like it very much (for various reasons) – but this one is really clear and easy to follow! So, thank you derek so much for posting this again
I’ve saved it now in my faves column 
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 4:47 pm
Hi Guys
There has been discussion of late on this board re time frames. I will throughout a thought for the weekend: I have been experimenting with 4 hr. time frames on freestockcharts.com . What I have found is that re the 4/9/18 system, it tends to give one the hourly insight with the daily outlook. The support/resistance areas appear more evident with the 4 hr charts. Food for thought…..
December 9th, 2011 at 4:48 pm
Hi Slava!
Kinross has a really big mine in Ecuador that they aquired by buying Aurelian. This week Equador has pulled out on agreements with foreign mining companies. You can check for this news.
Pat.
December 9th, 2011 at 4:48 pm
Eve
The last time i filled up, gas was around 127.5 .
Slava
I am a seabus/skyrain person, I only use my car for running errands and visiting .
December 9th, 2011 at 4:51 pm
Hi Derek and Eve
If I say pls., any chance of getting the posted site that Eve refers to in #130? Thx in advance.
December 9th, 2011 at 4:59 pm
Hi Ray and Eve,
I have a post for you regarding pivots but it’s in moderation, just to let you know.
December 9th, 2011 at 5:00 pm
RE POST #131, I use the 4/9/18 syatem (4 hr. charts) along with Eve’s Keltner. I wld. NEVER EVER give up my Keltner’s.
December 9th, 2011 at 5:00 pm
Hi jos/qc,
The one i said I didn’t like you mean?? Yes, sure you can have the site for it – it’s this:
http://www.mypivots.com/calculators/pivot-point-calculator.aspx
The one Derek provided is so much better in my opinion.
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 5:02 pm
Hi mick/nv,
Oh ok – thanks for that info re gas
I guess it’s quite high where you are (IF you recently filled up I mean) as it’s only $1.21 where Michael is (in Vancouver) (for today that is I mean).
Thanks mick
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 5:03 pm
Hi Ron/AB,
Oh ok – great! Thanks for letting me know
I will keep an eye out for it 
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 5:06 pm
jos/QC,
Oh aren’t they (the keltner) just the BEST!!! I just love them too and soooooooooooooooo would NEVER be without them myself either
I am sooooooooooooooooo thankful I found them in 2010 as they are just the BEST to see where price is going – and whether we’re in an uptrend or downtrend for a stock or market! They’re just the best!!! And thankful too that mick/nv introduced the better settings too of the 2.5 and 3.0 – they are the best ones to use (in my opinion anyway).
Glad you find them so useful too jos
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 5:09 pm
Hi Ron/AB,
Oh very good info for paid subscribers to stockcharts (as paid subs get those minute charts) – I’m not a paid subscriber though, so I only get the daily and weekly time frames on stockcharts. Maybe Ray though is a paid subscriber on stockcharts – so he can use that info for sure!! Thanks Ron for letting us know this
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 5:14 pm
Ron/AB,
I am not even “ABLE” to “VIEW” it in anything but the dauly time frame (as a non paid subscriber) – so all the pivot points on each of your 3 charts are all the same prices LOL – so, I can’t even “SEE” what YOU’RE seeing Ron
but thanks anyway 
Maybe Ray can use the info (if he’s a paid subscriber) – or someone else on here may be able to use the info anyway – so, thanks Ron 
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 5:22 pm
Hi Eve
If you cld. forward Derek’s site, much appreciated.
Also re Keltner: for a buy/sell signal I use 13,0.5: for overbought/oversold I then use 20,2.5….Long Live the Keltner.
December 9th, 2011 at 5:28 pm
Hi jos/qc,
This was dErek’s site he posted:
http://www.livecharts.co.uk/pivot_points/pivot_points.php
Thanks for those levels you use in the keltner
yes, long live the keltner LOL – too cute 
Eve
December 9th, 2011 at 5:35 pm
Eve
Thx for the site…
December 9th, 2011 at 7:01 pm
jos/qc,
I wonder if I might ask you about your use of the 13,.5 keltner for buy and sell. What would have made good buy and sell points from say, Oct using the 13, .5. using Abx.to as an example.( Or any other stock you prefer to use as an example).
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ABX.TO&p=D&b=9&g=0&id=p91060516367
December 9th, 2011 at 7:03 pm
Eve,
do you tend to use the 13, 0.5 with the keltner at all?
December 9th, 2011 at 7:39 pm
Sky
Kindly find the link below re abx.to…I do not have a subscription to stockcharts therefore cannot annotate on the chart.
Look at the wk of Oct 24 to Nov 1.,I wld have bought on the close above the kelt. 13,0.5…
As per our Madame Keltner (EVE), look at where the candle stick. of Nov 1 started, at the mid pt. of the kelt.,therefore as per Eve, this was an indication of strength & ABX.to continued on it’s merry way. Hope this helps a little…
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ABX.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p96733752898
December 9th, 2011 at 7:43 pm
Eve, Sky et al
Let me state here that the Kelt 13,0.5, I have modified it to approximate what Stephen Whiteside of the UpTrend appears to use.
December 9th, 2011 at 7:52 pm
Hi, Eve! You are welcome! Talk to you soon!
December 9th, 2011 at 8:01 pm
Hi Eve,
Sorry, I thought you were. That’s weird that you can’t even view the links properly.
I don’r know if Ray is a subscriber but maybe he can use it.
Have a great weekend!
December 9th, 2011 at 9:13 pm
jos/qc,
thank you for your answer. Nice color choice for a gold chart. I see that the close above the 13, .5 nicely coincides with the PPO crossover. I will have to study more closely.
thanks for bringing this up.
December 9th, 2011 at 9:14 pm
Hi Jos/qc,
Re #132 – 4 hr timeframes, Yep – I hear you. I use that as well.
And I have taken it a little further, and set up the 15min, 30 min,
60 min, and 2 hr time-frames as well. See if you like
the 60 min for swing trading – a few days at a time. My approach for
this is an “unsophisticated” trend-following one, with just 2 simple
moving averages 9 & 38, but as you can see, these exact settings are not
critical. The trick is, to be lucky, and find a stock that trends well
in both directions. As a for example, look at tmm-to recently.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=b79feba8-43cb-438f-9a43-531a2b7d9f72
(I am currently short this one – it appears to be independent of the crapola)
(coming out of Europe these days)
December 9th, 2011 at 9:29 pm
Tony:
Thanks very much explaining the RY.TO. I think you had mentioned it before if a lot more than average volume can’t push up the price then, a price drop would be follow. I also pulled out a chart from Jun 2006 to Dec 2007 and compared it with this year.
Here is the chart of present:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p08289679463
Here is the chart of 2007:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY.TO&p=D&st=2006-07-03&en=2007-12-31&id=p39448112960
Both charts showing strong bounced up late Oct and early Nov, then dropped to new lows, and then bounced up strongly again late Nov and early Dec. In 2007, the uptrend didn’t hold. And this year, we have to wait and see. Thanks.
December 9th, 2011 at 9:41 pm
#154 continued..
I also find that the 2 hour chart gives a better picture than the dailies,
for the higher priced stocks – just my perception/preference. Here as well,
just 2 moving averages, but with a 4 month window, which is long enough to show
recent support & resistance areas. But still a trend-follwing approach -
thus the movng averages. I really do not believe that charts have a high
degree of predictive power, therefore the next move really does not surprise
me, I just react to it, i.e., I will get stopped out, or I will hold, or add.
CXO is an example with the 2- hour chart. I will have to see the hook get to
102 before going long. The shorter time-frames tend to be full of noise,
because the ATR is bigger than for tmm-t.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=bb5d42fd-c592-4c75-94eb-e74300f94348
If you can save this layout, you will see that the 2 minute time-frame
could/ might appeal to some very short term traders. Look at UCO today.
A “tough row to hoe though”, using moving averages for this – but it
could be done if you are not greedy. But this is where cycling through
a short watch list at 10 AM could be useful.
December 9th, 2011 at 9:59 pm
Riptor
On RY.to I see resistance at about the $50.50 level off a weekly chart !
-Yes but using Price channel 49.73 is current resistance
On keltner it is riding just over top of keltner line – bearish !
I dont use keltner
-Using indicators it all depends the paramters you use,
Fast Stochastic topped out pretty well
-To fast to furious rather use W%R(3)
Shawdow on macd showing a decline
-True
Riding on top of R1 – but R1 for the last 3 months has been declining
- Not good this means there will be more resistance overhead
BUT
On weekly chart – price is away from 4 (top) by about $4, however 4 and 9 turned upwards heading into 18 – bullish ?
-This is good but want to see 4/9 cross not the case here.
On daily 4 seems to have turned east ( sideways and hopefully down soon ) plus a couple gaps down to about $47
to fill
– would this explain the concept that price should head back down to 4 on weekly hence the discussion of a short ?
-Will head back down to test the 9MA and then hold the 4MA moving fwd.
There is talk about more capital moving back into the market ?
-Don’t care HF have to make money they will have it retest the level they prefer
This afternoon should tell more about how next Monday should open, so are you seeing what I am seeing technically
-Exactly same view.
and are the markets to dangerous to hold over the weekend ( short anyway )
-You only forgot one thing Monthly chart this will give you a clear picture where we are headed. 4/9 and 4/18 have been crossed for the bears.
9 has also crossed below 18.
4@ 48.35
9@ 51.81
18@ 52.91
so RY should retest 51-52 and then bye-bye here comes the floor.
where is it only the 1st bull to stand will know. and this is when you will see a monthly bar so far below the 4MA
December 9th, 2011 at 10:50 pm
Ray – Kitchener,
Re: Eve’s post # 122.
Stockcharts does NOT use the open price in pivot calculation. They use High, Low, Close only.
“Pivot Points for daily charts use the prior month’s data. Pivot Points for June 1st would be based on the high, low and close for May. They remain fixed the entire month of June. New Pivot Points would be calculated on the first trading day of July. These would be based on the high, low and close for June.”
ChartSchool – Stockcharts
December 9th, 2011 at 11:30 pm
Derek #128 – The results are quite different from the Stockchart pivot points – are these the numbers Stockcharts will portray Monday’s opening?? If so – very helpful; if not I’m confused (again). Thanks Derek.
December 9th, 2011 at 11:48 pm
Hi, CJ! See Wayne’s post # 158. Stockcharts pivot points are monthly. I am not sure if there is a daily pivot point indicator on there. There could be if you have a paid subscription with more options, but the free one just offers the monthly pivot points. The site I mentioned calculate pivot points for the day. Also, traders calculate pivot points differently than other traders. For example, one trader may use the high, low, and close while others use the open, high, low, and close and yet another alternative is multiplying the close x 2 in the calculation. One reason a trader who multiplies the close times x 2 want there numbers/prices skewed to the close is because they may believe that professionals set the close. This stems from the belief that amateurs set the open, bulls set the high, bears set the low, and professionals set the markets closing prices. I suggest back testing these formulas on the stocks that you like to trade and see what works best for you. I hope this clarifies things for you. Talk to you soon!
December 9th, 2011 at 11:52 pm
Grammar correction for post #160. One reason a trader who multiplies the close x 2 in there calculation to determine the pivot point is because they may believe that professionals set the close. This stems from the belief that amateurs set the open, bulls set the high, bears set the low, and professionals set the markets closing prices.
December 10th, 2011 at 12:17 am
DEREK – Thanks so much – I had not got to Waynes post when I asked that question; that makes quite a difference then, and I have only used the freestockchart pivots (f) – never felt they were as useful as the 4,9,18 + the Keltner, RSI 21, and various MACD settings – now I have something new to “play” with LOL
December 10th, 2011 at 8:32 am
Starting the Christmas season off with a smile – - Happy December . Makes me feel like jumping with Joy!!!
This will make you feel good and get you smiling! A must see! Take a minute to enjoy!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4_EdJ-XkUA
December 10th, 2011 at 8:48 am
Rol
Re your post #154, what purpose do you find that the offset of -1 day serves? I have often looked at this but do not really comprehend the advantage/disadvantage of this feature.
December 10th, 2011 at 10:09 am
Hi jos/qc,
As I have hinted, I have a hard time getting all adamant & over-excited
about any particular, exact values. The main objective should be to
use whatever “looks great” too you. For me, I just try to keep it
simple, and not over-analyse it. Look at the hourly chart of TMM-to
with the 9 (-2) SMA removed. Tell me, honestly, would your decisions
really change, using just the 38 SMA cross as your signal?
This company is a small gold producer in Mexico. As such, they are always
drilling around their property to find more gold. If they have a lucky
strike on Monday, my short will be blown clear out of the water!
In that case, all this technical analysis would have helped me lose
my money! So Jos, always take this all this TA stuff with a grain of salt,
and always have your Bromo extra-strength standing by!
December 10th, 2011 at 10:15 am
UE, riptor Larry
heres royal bank chart for 2007 look at volume spikes and look how it plays with both the 20MA and 50MA I added 200 just to show you how much money emotions could make you lose.
the 4/9 was not conclusive enough for 2007 you are really scalping for dimes and quarters.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY.TO&p=D&st=2006-10-01&en=2007-12-31&id=p34205186391&a=250687902
I will do the same chart for 2011
and post it.
December 10th, 2011 at 10:15 am
Oh, To try to answer your question, Jos, I am not using the 9 (-2)
here as a moving average, instead I am using it as a smoothed “line chart”
for price, on top of the hourly candles.
(Jeez, Some people just cannot get to the point!
Best of Luck next week!
December 10th, 2011 at 10:44 am
UE riptor and Larry and al.
here is 2011 chart to look at
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RY.TO&p=D&st=2010-06-30&en=2011-12-9&id=p03562662114&a=250687902
see post 166 how markets were less volatile, we se used 50 as support and resistance
now we use 20 as support and resistance levels.
this is what we call a market of traders.
December 10th, 2011 at 10:54 am
UE riptor and Larry and al.
btw I just remebered to look at a 20/50MA on a monthly chart,
4 is about to cross below 50 just like in 08 we have
4@48.35
50@48.17
So yes going higher but not at 61$ probably 53$ where the 50MA is currently at on a weekly chart. its still 6$ more than my 47$ buy point.
but this is a short run.
December 10th, 2011 at 11:04 am
Just one note about MAs
Rol and Jos are talking about a 38MA,
the 38MA after testing it on 5 different charts its an excellent on the downside as resistance level.
December 10th, 2011 at 11:07 am
oops forgot to mention on daily charts the 38MA is good indicator for resistance level.
December 10th, 2011 at 11:08 am
Can someone tell me why the following phrase is good?
“The United Kingdom, Hungry, Sweden and the Czech Republic have opted out of the arrangement.”
taken from Don V comments on friday
December 10th, 2011 at 11:19 am
Tony, Re #166 – RY-to,
You are correct, my emotions & misconceptions & misunderstanding
cost me a pretty penny this year with The Royal.
I bought this cur back in early July when it poked its head above
the 50 MA. It had just announced stellar earnings, best ever! bla bla bla.
It was above it’s 200 day, Canadian banks are solid institutions, moreso than the likes of city, BAC, WAC, etc….. so what could go wrong?
I did not know about Dexia.
I ignored the big volume spikes down in May and June.
I ignored the down-trend line from late May to early July
when I bought.
I ignored the fact that it was not even close to retaking
its recent Apr high around 60.
The down draft in late July jammed me & stopped me out.
But it cost. Fortunately, I have not returned.
The question now is, has it turned around?
Is that a Buy Signal I see on the weekly chart?
http://tinyurl.com/6tzl3ob
(free stock charts dot com – weekly time frame)
My answer would be, I don’t know, but use a stop ~~ 48.36 if it
is bought here @ 49.47. So 100 shares could lose you ~~ $100.
And 1000 shares could lose you ~~ $1000.
Congratulations! to those who bouught at $43 on ~~ Nov 23,
and Good Luck to everyone else.
December 10th, 2011 at 11:36 am
Hey, CJ. The pivot points (f) are fibonacci pivot points and are calculated differently than the standard pivot points. You would just leave the box blank if you wanted the standard pivot points.
December 10th, 2011 at 11:48 am
Tony –
Would you please take a look at Walgreen – WAG. I’m seeing the 4 above the 9,18 on the daily and weekly but below on the monthly. Is this a buy or a wait till monthly 4 crosses the 9. Thanks for your insight.
December 10th, 2011 at 11:48 am
CJ: Here are a couple of examples of how pivot points are calculated:
Regular pivot points can be calculated as follows:
PP = (HIGH + LOW + CLOSE) / 3 or PP = (High + Low + Close + Close) / 4 (you can also add the open to these calculations as well)
S1 = (2 * PP) – HIGH
S2 = PP – RANGE
S3 = S2 – RANGE
R1 = (2 * PP) – LOW
R2 = PP + RANGE
R3 = R2 + RANGE
Fibonacci Pivot points are calculated as follows:
R3 = Pivot + 1.000 * (H – L)
R2 = Pivot + 0.618 * (H – L)
R1 = Pivot + 0.382 * (H – L)
Pivot = ( H + L + C ) / 3
S1 = Pivot – 0.382 * (H – L)
S2 = Pivot – 0.618 * (H – L)
S3 = Pivot – 1.000 * (H – L)
December 10th, 2011 at 1:00 pm
IWO Brunch today – by Steven Place
http://www.investingwithoptions.com/
December 10th, 2011 at 2:47 pm
Interesting discussion;
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/looking-for-signs-of-a-year-end-rally/article2262192/
December 10th, 2011 at 3:56 pm
Rol Lew
I use Elliott Wave a lot, don’t know if you do. I took a look at tmm.to,& if you shorted this stock, it looks like a safe short play for a while from an Elliott wave point of view. Be advised, wave 3 was extended & therefore wave 5 (which this stock is in now) will not be as long. As soon as it stats to point north, I wld. advise to bail out of my short position.
All these observations based on a 4 hr. chart.
December 10th, 2011 at 4:00 pm
Rol Lew
Re post #165 last paragraph….as you say, TA is simply an expression of what shld. occur & not necessarily of what will happen.
December 10th, 2011 at 7:18 pm
So, I see Stockcharts has now put the tsx on their “scooters”. While it was nice to see three of my small caps in the top ten (ONR, SPM, RIC), I must say it makes one question the ranking formula they are using. I know it is supposed to be based on John Murphy’s T.A.system, and he, after all, is one of the big guys, but, really, checking out the charts causes one to wonder if the system doesn’t need a little tweeking. Anyone else check it out? Any thoughts?
December 10th, 2011 at 9:34 pm
Eve. On options expiration Friday when we say 1240 would be maximum pain…Does that mean it would need to close at 1240 on Friday to achieve that or does it just have to at some point on Friday for that to occur?
Thanks
December 10th, 2011 at 10:43 pm
Tawney #163 – Thanks for the giggles
December 10th, 2011 at 11:08 pm
Derek #176 – in the first set of numbers what is “Range” please?
Seems you can have quite a few different Resistance and Support levels using various calculations; surely over the years, one set has become more consistently accurate???
December 10th, 2011 at 11:19 pm
Derex – PS – here’s another set of caloculations:
Formula
PP = (H + L + C) / 3
then:
* R1 = (2*PP) – L
* R2 = PP + (H – L)
* R3 = H + 2*(PP-L)
* S1 = (2*PP) – H
* S2 = PP – (H – L)
* S3 = L – 2*(H – PP)
I’m not seeing the KISS principle here LOL!
December 10th, 2011 at 11:42 pm
Hi Jim,
Daily yes 4 is above both 9 and 18m also the 9 has crossd above the 18Ma.
but 4MA seems to want to move lower, but it is currenlty sitting on support at 33.91. it could try I do say try to test 33$ but this is long shot.
Weekly 4 is below 9 and 9 is below 18 but seems like it wants to go higher.
4@ 33.11, 9@ 33.17 18@ 33.81
the monthly only thing I can give you is higher highs and higher lows. there is major resistance in the 43$ area. 9seems to be closer to close below 18 than the 4 close above. but oscillators say its a buy right now.
December 11th, 2011 at 12:43 am
Derek – I did the Pivot calcuations for your 2nd (F)range of formulas and also the formulas I posted from http://thetrader.hubpages.com/hub/Pivot_Point. Turns out the latter are exactly what comes up at the Calculator site posted yesterday! And neither are the same as the daily stockchart (f) (Because they are last months calcs I assume)
I was using COG as my test Oh, and one does need to watch where you add brackets in those calculations!!! I first tried: R3 = (Pivot + 1.000) * (H – L)- that was way out of line – I needed R3 = Pivot + ((1)*(H-L))
December 11th, 2011 at 9:59 am
So nobody found the odd thing in volume on the link in post 168?
Will give you another hint, it occured only 4 times since july 2010 on daily chart.
But if you look at weekly chart it only occurs in the last week of december only exception was in 08 where it never occured.
OK heres the answer to my riddle, volume was below 1 Million on daily chart. most of the time it occurs in december.
En
December 11th, 2011 at 10:32 am
Hey Tony, can you look at 182 and comment?
Thanks
December 11th, 2011 at 11:09 am
jos?qc and others
how do you get a 4 hour chart? that setting does not seem to be available on stockcharts.
thank you in advance
December 11th, 2011 at 12:35 pm
Tony -
#186 Re:WAG
Thank you. What specifically makes you say that on the daily chart that “the 4 wants to go lower”. In other words what are you seeing that gives you the “seems” thought? Trying to learn from you here. BTW I’m using freecharts.
December 11th, 2011 at 1:58 pm
CJ #184; The range is calculate by subtracting the high from the low of the day. I have not backtested these too much since I work full time and have a baby coming in January. I recommend back testing these on your favorite stocks to trade. You may find that some work better than others on certain stocks, but vice versa on other stocks. Generally speaking, some indicators just work better on some stocks than others.
#185: Yeah they can be a bit time consuming to do all of the math for pivot points and there support and resistance levels. Thank goodness for the calculators on line. LOL!
#187: Yeah the stockcharts is different because that is calculated using the monthly numbers as opposed to the daily on the calculators. You can apply the formulas to weekly numbers as well.
Hope this helps! Talk to you soon!
December 11th, 2011 at 4:06 pm
Hi Tom,
“Max options’ pain” price is the price of a stock (or index) that the market makers will “need” to “pin” the stock price to or index price to throughout the entire day in order for puts and calls to expire worthless – so, yes, they try to keep the price “kept” (ie. “pinned”) at that price level throughout the entire day _ BUT, if it deviates away from that price point (like say for RAX the price it is trying to be “pinned” to is $41 – this was the max pain price for Nov options’ expiration for RAX – the price can go above that or beloe that during that Friday BUT you will often find, it will “close” at that price point OR within a few cents of it in order to make the puts and calls at that price point of “maximum” pain, expire worthless. So, for this month, that price of the SPX that it will be trying to be kept “pinned” to on Friday will be 1240 (according to the Max Options’ Pain Calculator – which, this CAN be OFF on the price each month – sometimes it is bang on but other times, it is somewhat off. Last month in Nov., the SPX max options pain price shown on the calculator was showing at 1250 – and for most of the options’ expiration week (including the expiration Friday), the SPX was being kept at 1250. Here’s the website for the calculator for the Max Options’ Pain price (just plug in any stock to see the price of Max Options Pain – BUT, just know that it CAN be OFF base in what price level it shows on the calculator versus the price a stock actually gets pinned to in price on the Options expiration Friday – look at various stocks in the calculator and see where the stock’s price is RIGHT NOW – and see if you think it can get to that Max Pain number that comes up in the calc by next Friday):
http://www.optionpain.com/OptionPain/Option-Pain.php
Hope this helps Tom
Eve
December 11th, 2011 at 5:15 pm
Novice Investor
I use freestockcharts.com to see the 4 hr. time frame as I do not have a subscription to stockcharts.
December 11th, 2011 at 5:46 pm
Hi Eve
Re:ipl/un.to(interprovincial pipeline)
Would appreciate your comments as an entry price.Thanks
Walter
December 11th, 2011 at 7:53 pm
Hi Eve,
Thanks so much for your explanation. I’ve heard you and others talk about this but didnt understand how it worked. Now I know. Thanks again. T
December 11th, 2011 at 10:15 pm
Tony
About ry.to, i read your post twice. Not sure if i got your idea right. Here is my understanding, the recent price spike indicates that direction will change. In short term, it will go up to 52-53 before it comes down again.
Kelly
December 11th, 2011 at 11:19 pm
Hi Kelly
you misinterpreted the spike is not a price spike if it was that was indication that it will move higher,
instead volume spiked, with no significant price movement. this is always the warning that people are abandoning ship
I see price move in the 47$ range, before moving to 53 area.
look at the indicators are movng lower.
December 12th, 2011 at 6:56 am
Opps, i mistyped price spike. Tony. I was looking at charts. I don’t know why i typed price instead of volumn.