ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Wednesday January 18th
U.S. equity index futures are mixed this morning. S&P 500 Index futures are down 2 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of December Producer Prices at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus was an increase of 0.1%. Actual was a decline of 0.1%. Consensus for Producer Prices ex food and energy was an increase of 0.1%. Actual was an increase of 0.3%.
The World Bank has reduced its estimate of world GDP growth in 2012 from 3.4% to 2.5%.
The International Monetary Fund is exploring development of a one trillium dollar fund designed to stabilize nations under financial stress.
Fourth quarter earnings have started to pour in. Goldman Sachs added $1.16 to $98.84 after reporting higher than expected earnings. Bank of New York Mellon fell $0.52 to $20.75 after reporting lower than expected earnings.
Research in Motion fell $0.93 to $16.54 after Samsung denied rumors that it plans to bid for the company.
Yahoo added $0.52 to $15.95 after its Chairman Jerry Yang resigned.
Canadian Pacific is expected to open lower after BB&T reduced its rating on the stock from Buy to Hold.
Google slipped $3.64 to $624.94 after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock from Outperform to Market Perform. Target is $640. Google reports quarterly earnings tomorrow.
Office Depot is expected to open higher after Barclays upgraded the stock from Under Weight to Equal Weight.
Radio Shack improved $0.10 to $9.90 after Barclays upgraded the stock from Under Weight to Equal Weight.
Technical Watch
Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) – $624.94 slipped 0.6% after Wells Fargo downgraded the stock from Outperform to Market Perform. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since mid-June. However, short term momentum indicators are trending down. In addition, seasonal influences are negative until mid-March. Preferred strategy is to accumulate closer to its 200 day moving average at $561.79.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/clip_image00118.png "clip_image001[1]")
Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) Seasonal Chart
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE: GS) – $98.84 added 1.2% after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at $83.95 and resistance is at $117.61. The stock trades below its 200 day moving average, but above its 15 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since January 2010. Short term momentum indicators are overbought. Seasonal influences are mixed until mid-February when they turn positive. Preferred strategy is to sell into strength closer to resistance at $117.61.
Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image195.png "clip_image004[1]")
Radioshack Corp. (NYSE:RSH) – $9.90 added 1.00% after Barclays upgraded the stock from Under Weight to Market Weight. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since the end of July. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.
RadioShack Corporation (NYSE:RSH) Seasonal Chart
Mark Leibovit’s Daily Gold Comment
More information on Mark’s services is available at
http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp
GOLD – ACTION ALERT – BUY
Like stocks, metals pushed higher across the board, despite my expectation that we were going to see a pullback here along with equities. Of course, yesterday could have been a ‘bull trap’ and we can still get that pullback – but a pullback in a short to near-term uptrend. Silver at 33-35 and Gold around 1700+ still appear to viable short to near-term targets. That said, I am not a bear here though I am watching my back. The tops made in silver last April/May and in gold August/September could very well be significant, suggesting it could take many months or more before the bull reasserts himself. Regardless, I would continue to dollar-cost-average the physical metals and keep them in a secret place. Desperate governments do desperate things including dramatically devaluing currencies or confiscating valuables or making it unpatriotic not to do so
Technical Action by S&P 500 stocks Yesterday
Technical action by S&P 500 stocks was strangely mixed yesterday despite strength by major U.S. equity indices. Nine S&P 500 stocks broke resistance (Danaher, Dell, Fiserv, Flowservice, Sealed Air, Time Warner Cable and Whole Foods) and six stocks broke support (Carnival, Compuware, RR Donnelley, Public Service Enterprises, Supervalu and Watson Pharmaceutical). The Up/Down ratio slipped from 2.89 to (306/107=) 2.86.
Compuware and RR Donnelley broke support after lowering guidance.
The World Outlook Financial Conference
Friday, February 10 and Saturday, February 11
Westin Bayshore Hotel, Vancouver, B.C.
Mr. Vialoux will be presenting.
Here is the link:
Interesting Chart
Sector rotation continues. Previously, short term momentum indicators for consumer staples, utilities and energy rolled over. Yesterday, financial services began to roll over.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Automobiles & Components Industry Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[4]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/image211.png "clip_image002[4]")
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC January 17th 2011
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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January 18th, 2012 at 8:10 am
Tony
Trp seems to hold around 42. What is option tell you now? Direction is not clear to me yet. Thanks.
Im on traing for a whole week. Happy trading.
Kelly
January 18th, 2012 at 8:53 am
Slava,
re nat gas:
looks like you were right girl (re your post on it from yesterday) – nat gas is up today by 4 cents so far
eve
January 18th, 2012 at 9:09 am
Can you comment on MG please? It seems as it’s trying to go higher. Seasonally it also appears interesting…
Please provide commentary. Thank you
January 18th, 2012 at 9:12 am
In case you missed this post last night from Jeanne
“Jeanne Says:
January 17th, 2012 at 11:35 pm
HI All,
From Stewart Thomson.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/thomson_s/thomson_s_011712.html
end quote. I had a look at this and it is such a different take on the markets from what I have seen. Anyone others familiar with Stewart Thomson? What do you think of this report for a fantastic 2012 and the disaster coming in 2013?
January 18th, 2012 at 9:21 am
Hi Eve,
I know how you feel reading posts on options especially from me
, I’m not an expert on the matter, just above novice who from the readings on the options was able to dechipher some trends in the past.
I think I have mentionned this in the past, I owned SU.to, and looking at option activity back in 09 for a few months activity was for the 39$ calls, everytime it hit this area it would sell back down to 34-36, so for a time I owned at 35 and change and everytime it reached the target I kept on hoping it would break through, and the month there was no more activity, I decided to step out at 39, so I made 3$+
if I had traded it I would have made 12$. just goes to show you how someone can make easy money just adding a trailing stop at 38 so If it broke through, your still in and if not well you know that you can make another easy 3-5$/share.
Trading stock is easy you e
January 18th, 2012 at 9:22 am
Toni,
Good Morning,
Do you use the OEXA200R or the OEXA50R for market direction?If not take a look at it and use all your various indicators.You will get a good sense of the direction of the market.
January 18th, 2012 at 9:26 am
#4 Follow up
Trading stock is easy you either say its going up or down.
trading options is more of an art, you can decide you where you think there is resistance, support, you can protect your investments from any surprises, you can chose to buy on side and sell the other just so that you can reduce your cost basis, there is like 20 different strategies if not more, its enough to feel overwhelmed, when you don’t know anything.
but when you consider 1 contract is worth 100 shares, if you have 1000 contracts you are dealing with 100 000 shares we are talking lots of money.
January 18th, 2012 at 9:29 am
Tony,
If you have a chance, would you look at my question from last night (#135)?
Thanks
Deb
January 18th, 2012 at 9:46 am
Hi Eve, yes, HNU is at +4% (but I’m not in it
) and I just covered my FM short and made $510.
January 18th, 2012 at 9:47 am
Twany,
Yes bought Hvu.to @ $13.99 and sold yesterday before the close @ $14.99
January 18th, 2012 at 9:47 am
tony, re “Trading stock is easy” – I wish it was easy!
January 18th, 2012 at 9:51 am
Eve, it looks to me like many stocks are struggling and don’t know which way they want to go, especially momo stocks.
January 18th, 2012 at 9:52 am
Eve
Could you please look at BA stock. It is hovering around the middle of the Keltner channel, Sto is low, but RSI is at 50, I would like to buy this stock. Is this a good entry point? Thanks for your reply.
January 18th, 2012 at 9:53 am
Kelly K
Trp, bright spot is that MACD H is moving north,
Options has a warning in effect for the JAn 45$ calls Feb 45$ calls and May 45$ calls and Feb 35$ puts.
So this is how I would trade it, have a trailing stop when price reaches 44$ at 43.15, so you if it should move to 45+ before it pulls back down you get the most profit.
wait to see what feb has in store, probably it moves close to 35 so if it does look if anything changed by then, if not you ride it up to 45, and do this again until the month of may. once you see where feb stopped prior to its upside reversal use this target as support to buyin, and sell in the 45$ area.
January 18th, 2012 at 9:53 am
Slava
It is easy. I also learned a few harsh lessons. Like someone on this board said yesterday, “let it come to you”.
January 18th, 2012 at 9:53 am
Eve, Tony, CJ – are you trading COG today?
January 18th, 2012 at 9:54 am
Tony, CP keeps going up – just like you predicted.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:02 am
Nick
HVU – Congrats. I did not do as well as you as I was in at $14.70. RBC Direct was down this morning – I wanted to sell at $14.99, but I got $14.81 by “slow phone” – don’t we all hate it when we cannot get our trade through. hmm . wasn’t so long ago, that was the only way – slow phone! Anyway small profit. I may buy it back if it comes down far enough.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:02 am
Deb
I read your post, I needed some more info on the options since their was no trading on it I was waiting to see what they are doing with silver.
Ok here is the best I can do, and I think I’ve mentionned it not to long ago,
silver they are buying
They are buying the Jan 27, 28 and 29 calls and selling the 30, 31,32 calls,
They are buying the Feb 29 and 30 calls and selling the 33 calls,
They are buying the March 28, 29, and 30 calls and selling the 40 calls,
Basically what this means is that by friday you should sell in the 30 area,
and try buying it back in the 29 and sell it back at 33 for feb,
finally march buy it in the 28 to 30 area, and sell it at 40
the 50MA looks like a short term resistance and it is currently at 30 and change.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:05 am
Deb
should read this as so everytime it hits your targets you either buy or sell don’t hold on cause it can swing in both direction and you want to make the most out of it believe me I know read post 5
January 18th, 2012 at 10:08 am
Hmm.. I can’t even “enjoy” green markets like today since I have too many short positions. I’m surprised we haven’t seen any kind of a market pullback in almost three weeks.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:08 am
Slava
trading stock is easy not in the sense of how to make money, but in the direction you can take its either up or down.
as for options I can’t even tell you how many ways you can trade it here is one example I’ve heard in the past on the options action show buy 1 call sell 2 puts. And you are supposed to own how many stocks
as for stocks you buy 100 and sell 100.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:09 am
SLAVA #16 – not trading it, I’m holding it from way back when and watching it inch slowly to my breakeven spot then maybe some more ??? I live in hope !!!
January 18th, 2012 at 10:10 am
Thanks Tony – didn’t know how the options effected it. Appreciate your help!
Deb
January 18th, 2012 at 10:17 am
NG “rally” didn’t last too long.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:22 am
DM,
MG are you talking about magna, if so,
a few weeks I was asked the same question and I had a 40 target on it and we are there
Macd H is going south, so I recommend you buy it in the 35$ and sell it in the 40 to 42 area
where do these numbers come from. you see this on the options mga on cboe they are buying the 35 and 40 calls and selling the 42calls, for march, as for june they are buying both 32 calls and 42 calls so you probably want to have a trailing stop in june around 41 just in case it leaves the train station.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:22 am
Slava#25 – NG Futures still in +ive territory Slava, better than the red we have been seeing for days.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:23 am
It’s amazing how markets don’t care about this:
”
(01-17) 22:17 PST BEIJING, China (AP) –
The World Bank warned Wednesday of a possible slump in global economic growth and urged developing countries to prepare for shocks that could be more severe than the 2008 crisis.
The bank cut its growth forecast for developing countries this year to 5.4 percent from 6.2 percent and for developed countries to 1.4 percent from 2.7 percent. For the 17 countries that use the euro currency, it forecast a contraction, cutting their growth outlook to -0.3 percent from 1.8 percent.
Global growth could be hurt by a recession in Europe and a slowdown in India, Brazil and other developing countries, the Washington-based bank said. It said conditions might worsen if more European countries are unable to raise money in financial markets.
“The global economy is entering into a new phase of uncertainty and danger,” said the bank’s chief economist, Justin Yifu Lin. “The risks of a global freezing up of capital markets as well as a global crisis similar to what happened in September 2008 are real.”
Developing countries that have enjoyed relatively strong growth while the United States and Europe struggled might be hit hard, Lin said. He said they should line up financing in advance to cover budget deficits, review the health of their banks and emphasize spending on social safety nets.
Many governments are in a weaker position than they were to respond to the 2008 global crisis because their debts and budget deficits are bigger, Lin said at a news conference.
In the event of a major crisis, “no country will be spared,” Lin said. “The downturn is likely to be longer and deeper than the last one.”
The bank’s outlook in its “Global Economic Prospects” report issued twice a year adds to mounting gloom amid Europe’s debt crisis and high U.S. unemployment.
“It is very likely that most European countries, including Germany, entered recession in the fourth quarter of last year,” said Hans Timmer, the World Bank’s director of development projects.
Investors have cut investments in developing countries by 45 percent in the second half of last year, compared with the same period in 2010, Timmer said.
The report follows similar warnings about the global economy by its sister organization, the International Monetary Fund, and private sector forecasters.
For the United States, the bank cut this year’s growth forecast to 2.2 percent from 2.9 percent and for 2013 to 2.4 percent from 2.7 percent. As reasons, it cited the anticipated global slowdown and the on-going fight in Washington over spending and taxes.
Global growth might suffer from the interaction of Europe’s troubles and efforts by China, India, South Africa, Russia and Turkey to cool rapid growth and inflation with interest rate hikes and other measures, the bank said.
China’s expansion slowed to a 2 1/2-year low of 8.9 percent in the three months ending in December from the previous quarter’s 9.1 percent.
As Europe weakens, developing countries could find “their slowdown might be larger than is necessary to cope with inflation pressures,” Lin said.
A global downturn would hurt developing countries by driving down prices for metals, farm goods and other commodities and demand for other exoprts, the World Bank said.
Slower growth is already visible in weakening trade and commodity prices, the World Bank said.
Global exports of goods and services expanded an estimated 6.6 percent in 2011, barely half the previous year’s 12.4 percent rate, the bank said. It said the growth rate is expected to fall to 4.7 percent this year.
Prices of energy, metals and farm products are down 10 to 25 percent from their peaks in early 2011, Timmer said.
The United States is already feeling some pain from Europe’s crisis. Exports to Europe fell 6 percent in November, the Commerce Department said last week.”
Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/n/a/2012/01/17/financial/f221719S75.DTL#ixzz1jp8JAyEc
January 18th, 2012 at 10:30 am
Just reshorted FM at $24.18.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:31 am
It’s a little bit encouraging to see that Kinross didn’t fall apart today.. I was afraid it will head down to $9.. it can still do that, of course.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:31 am
#28
I don’t understand the markets lately – why the big rally??? Is everything OK now? Somehow I’m not all convinced. Sorry if I’m cranky; must be perma-bear talking in me…
January 18th, 2012 at 10:32 am
It’s all momentum… after I covered my FM short I was trying to buy 1,000 shares at $23.40 but it ran away on me. Would have been a great purchase.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:33 am
Did the “test” post to see if it had to be “moderator approved”.
Posted a couple times before, but by the time they were approved, the posts were way up the thread where no one would see them.
Just wondering, does anyone follow Morris Hubbartt’s work?
January 18th, 2012 at 10:33 am
Irwin its working fine unless you have a link then they might moderate your content.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:34 am
Thanks Tony
January 18th, 2012 at 10:36 am
Whoever was asking about Suncor yesterday – I can answer that question now. Yes, Suncor was a good purchase yesterday
January 18th, 2012 at 10:36 am
My bet is that we end the day lower than current levels.. any other thoughts?
January 18th, 2012 at 10:36 am
SU.to resistance is at 200ma34.5, we can take half off the table. other half add it when it break up.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:36 am
Anna
Here is one stupid argument Bankers won’t get a bonus this year or if they do it will be a box of doughnuts.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:41 am
Thanks Tony for making me laugh! Right now I find it very hard to trade with the up trend – I don’t believe it and want to trade the opposite… Prob. should stay out for now…
January 18th, 2012 at 10:44 am
Slava
I bet SnP will turn at 1320 for a mild correction.probably 70 points lower
January 18th, 2012 at 10:46 am
Hey Anna
I’m the one with this theory but the no bonus I read it on Swqack
January 18th, 2012 at 10:51 am
Hi Tony: I have been following your post for a long time. May I ask you how do you know how many are buying call and how many are selling call? I only looked at Yahoo website say for example BHP or POT. We have open interest and volumn but how do I know people are buying or selling. Isn’t it always a buyer and a seller for each contract? I am just a beginner and sorry for my beginner’s question. Thanks from your reader.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:56 am
BTW, To all su.to potential buyers….according to E-W theory, bail out at approx. $34..
January 18th, 2012 at 10:57 am
Good morning Lin, if you get a chance – if you were to short boe.v, what would you be looking for to short it? Thanks.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:00 am
Lin,
Thanks for your email!
January 18th, 2012 at 11:01 am
All of a sudden the light bulb went on and I realized what my biggest mistake has been lately. I’ve been taking very large $ positions.. I was thinking about how did I end up with 3,200 shares of Kinross. Madness! Anyways, I need to scale back. Shorting 200 shares of CMG is just a press of a button – but it’s a $71k position! So it’s not like I’ve been making big mistakes – it’s that I’ve been making small mistakes but on very large sums of money.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:03 am
Hi Carol
isn’t this deja vu I think I answered a question of yours in the past.
I don’t look at yahoo I prefer: http://www.cboe.com/DelayedQuote/QuoteTable.aspx
they are the real deal being where options are traded on the US side.
now i don’t know how many have been buying or selling per se or who did get a chance to sell.
What I look at is where do we see some green on the net is it on the calls or puts, and where do you see the green become red on the calls. this is one indicator of where price is headed then there is also where do people are turned off.
look at last friday post to CJ or tawny and Eve will hve a better understanding.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:08 am
Carol
Here is what you see on bhp Jan 77.5 calls net is positive, bhp 80 calls net is negative so don’t expect more than 80$
if you look at the puts they are in sell mode for january so they are probably willing to risk the downside
January 18th, 2012 at 11:10 am
Bankers will still get their bounuses. Thanks to the “Fractured Banking System” which creates 9 times the amount you deposit out of thin air!
January 18th, 2012 at 11:16 am
morning, Slava
BOE.V , this is very good stock. I would buy dip rather than short it.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:17 am
Slava
Re #48 lightbulb. I hear what you are saying… large positions like you have been playing are probably best for a day-trade, focused on the computer on 5 min. charts! I find it very scary to take a large posiiton. I often $ cost into a purchase in thirds of a posiiton. I have seen Lin suggest this too at least for longer term trades like holding US currency. So, you are likely right here with small mistakes, large positions multiply big time.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:18 am
Slava
Re:48
I think Paul-R suggested this yesterday, you may have missed his post.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:18 am
Lin
Can we have your view on the S&P (or SPY) please?
January 18th, 2012 at 11:19 am
Shorting this is very tempting but I’ve had such bad luck lately that I should probably stay on the sidelines.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BOE.V&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p44940729185
January 18th, 2012 at 11:22 am
Anyone going to the mining conference in Vancouver taking place on Jan. 22/23?
January 18th, 2012 at 11:25 am
Tawny, spy (ETF)130-134.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:26 am
lin answered you at 52 SLAVA it is far too soon to short, since you are having losses with your shorting why not concentrate for a while on uptrends and positive thinking!
January 18th, 2012 at 11:27 am
mick/inv, lots of snow in North Van? I’m about to leave for work and I was thinking of wearing my red shearling purchased by me in the mountainous region of Turkey last summer. Good memories!
January 18th, 2012 at 11:28 am
Young, my pleasure! Thought you might keep it.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:29 am
CJ, Lin, thanks.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:30 am
For a junior gold – take a look at tye.v at $0.045. Very good properties.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:32 am
Slava
NTR
Just sprinkling snow, nothing heavy but enough to cover the sidewalks. What’s it like downtown? Working from home today.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:35 am
mick/inv, it’s grey and gloomy downtown with a bit of snow.. lots of fog! Depressing all around. The only ray of light is that my hot Russian is coming for a visit tonight
Really looking forward to it. Okay, I’m off to work!
January 18th, 2012 at 11:36 am
Sector Outperformance Over The Business Cycle – The Conventional Sector Rotation Model
IMO this is where we currently are so position yourself accordingly
Stage of Recession
Stage 2 – Late
http://marketscalpel.com/approach/rotation/sectorRotationConventionTable.htm
January 18th, 2012 at 11:38 am
NTR
When I said “my hot Russian” coming for a visit imagine the movie “9 1/2 weeks” and then multiply that intentsity by 10! ..lol.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:38 am
Hi Slava and other Lower Mainlanders. I’m not going to the Resource Conference next week as I’m flying down to Arizona tomorrow. Winter has returned to the mountains!
I have just registered for the following:
http://go.metastock.com/forms/van021112p?elq=43325b787d184fb8a80e003ac293977c
January 18th, 2012 at 11:42 am
Kelly K
I hope you didn’t buy TRP yet.
BNN just anounced Obama has rejected Key stone pipeline
January 18th, 2012 at 11:43 am
Lin
RE #58 – thanks for that – so you think the S&P is topping out now, right? So how far down do you think we will go – if you have an opinion, please.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:43 am
Slava
#67 NTR. WOW, I am jealous! Enjoy!
January 18th, 2012 at 11:45 am
Michael #68 – That looks great and I like that it is FREE!!! LOL PLEASE take Slava with you
January 18th, 2012 at 11:49 am
Hi Eve,
I am wondering the entry point for PPLT and IWM. Thank you so much, Ania
January 18th, 2012 at 11:49 am
Hi Eve,
I am wondering the entry point for PPLT and IWM. Thank you so much, Ania
January 18th, 2012 at 11:51 am
Off to brunch with the UK kids! Happy Trading everyone!
January 18th, 2012 at 11:59 am
I wrote this yesterday (in case anyone missed it):
re HVU.TO:
HVU hit a low a week ago at $13.70 – it then went up to $16 and has pulled back from there to where it hit its low today of $13.70 – so, this is a double bottom it looks like AND IF it IS, then it would be a “W” pattern formation – and THAT is a bullish formation! It suggests an up move for HVU to around the mid keltner of $17.88 (currently) – that would complete the “W”. So, if HVU doesn’t go below $13.70 by any great amount, then it looks like there is upside to around the $17/18 level that is coming VERY SOON!!
I wrote last week to Kay that the SPX would most likely get to 1300 and would most likely then go a few points above that level before it comes down. Today, it did just that as it got to 1303. Today, there is a “reversal” candlestick showing for today on the chart – and MACD histogram is going lower (while SPX is going higher) – and stochastics is looking like it is rolling over -both of these suggest that the SPX will be coming down. The SPX could still do one move up again in order to try to get to the keltner top of 1308 before it comes down by a good amount (like down to around 1250 or lower). If the SPX DOES go up tomorrow to try to get to the keltner top OR to TODAY’S high and then falls down from there, this would be a very bearish signal (along with the rolling over stochastics AND MACD histo turning lower) as THAT would be considered a “double top”.
So, look for a confirmation of a pullback of a good amount of either a double top in the next day or 2 on the SPX OR simply a decline from here. Either scenario could easily play out. IF however, the SPX manages to get ABOVE 1308 and goes above 1310, then look for it to head to around 1330 or so before it has a more significant pullback. Here’s the chart with the rolling over stochastics (at bottom) and the MACD histo going down too:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p18638852194
Eve
January 18th, 2012 at 11:59 am
Post 76 is on the SPX too!
eve
January 18th, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Hi, Tawny
If SPY can’t heading higher,127 would be first support. Once we get there then we will see what is next.
January 18th, 2012 at 12:08 pm
BTW, Chinese NEW YEAR, stocks exchange will be closed 21 Jan–31 Jan. Chinese stocks usually are going higher for 1st week.
January 18th, 2012 at 12:14 pm
Hi Tony, thanks for your comment. So net positive means more buyer? and negative means more seller? thx again…Carol
January 18th, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Hi Ric,
are you talking about BA in the U.S.? or in Canada?
Eve
January 18th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Michael…You asked me about PEY.TO yesterday. I thought Eve did a good job of answering in a later post. The problem with Peyto is it is a “gassy” stock. Don V. talked about it and several others in a blog last week. They are all suffering but why Peyto more than others? I dunno.
But in checking the charts, Don might say, “better opportunities exist elsewhere”. The price may be trying to form a bottom today but that could simply be the slight increase in natural gas prices (it’s cold today in Vancouver – that’s the answer, right?) It’s only one day and one swallow doesn’t make a summer. And the “bottoming” we see could be just that the price broke considerably below the bottom Bollinger.
All the indicators show no turnaround in sight. I like using Bollingers instead of Keltners. They both show the same info, kinda, but Bollingers are not price based but are based on volatility, giving a slight alternative to most of the indicators. Also, when the Bollinger Bands narrow, it signals there is a change in direction but you can’t tell in which direction. The more narrow the Bands, the more severe the change. Based on that alone, since the Bollingers are extremely wide, more so than they been all year and follow a very narrow, don’t expect a turnaround this week. But you may want to examine your shorts.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PEY.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p38985664607&a=254206798
January 18th, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Eve:
Re: #75
I read it last night and thought ‘WOW’ what a great explanation of what you think the charts might do and how we might play it with HVU. Thanks for the clear and precise analysis. It will be interesting to see how it plays out.
January 18th, 2012 at 1:22 pm
Freddebuoy:
re PEY.TO
Thank you fredde for the compliment
eve
January 18th, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Don F.:
thank you so much!!
That is so sweet of you to say 
Let’s see now how it plays out 
eve
January 18th, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Hi Eve,
Do you analysis on Gold prices as you did on SPX. It would be great. Thanks.
January 18th, 2012 at 1:33 pm
NTR
Tawny, I think you were referring to my post #66 in your post #70? I know, too much information on my part but I felt compelled to share this little bit of joy in my life..lol.. since I complain too much on this board. I’m curious to see how long our little fling will last and what, if anything, it may lead to. Also, the question is – do I go for love/amazing connection or money? If I want money the Hot Russian is not the guy to pick as a husband.
Eve, what do you think? Do I pick a man who makes me laugh, we have amazing chemistry, he has great personality but financially not settled or do I go for one of those lawyer types (like the one I went on two dates with back in the fall?)
January 18th, 2012 at 1:40 pm
tony, I bought 3,000 shares of GTE.to at $4.77 on January 13th. It’s at $5.01. At what level would you suggest to put a stop loss? Thanks.
January 18th, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Carol
you must be careful yes if there is some red on the calls it means you should see price resistance in the area, and if you see green on the puts then you will see price move lower.
but use open interest to see where it could stop (usually you will either see a higher than usual interest, or a plunge in open interest.
I use it as a guide to see where I can put a resistance or support if I don’t see a clear support level.
January 18th, 2012 at 1:47 pm
Eve
BA.TO. thanks
January 18th, 2012 at 1:47 pm
Ok Just read keystone was stopped by the US,so the trp is off limits
So please don’t ask me how far it can go I have no clue for the time being.
only thing I know is they are buying the 40 and 35 puts so 35 is one objective, can it go lower yes it can.
January 18th, 2012 at 1:58 pm
This is from the top of this page: “Canadian Pacific is expected to open lower after BB&T reduced its rating on the stock from Buy to Hold.”.. and CP is up, again, +1.66%. The most expensive and the least efficient railroad in NA.
By the way, no Keystone pipeline probably means extra profits for CP?
January 18th, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Hi Eve,
Thanks for your TA on HVU and $SPX. I feel a shallow correction is close at hand although the SPX could keep inching higher a bit more yet. There seems to be less correlation between sectors then last year when everything went up or down based on headlines in the news. It could be that even though there is a pull back near term in some areas there will be rotation into other sectors that should keep the correction in the broader market “shallow”. Please keep us posted with your TA on the SPX and HVU:)
January 18th, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Slava
gte wait till it reaches 5.80 to have a trailing stop at 5.50
on the US side there is some open interest at 7 so if it reaches this level just take your profits and run.
January 18th, 2012 at 2:09 pm
tony, thanks. I’m glad you agree with me that GTE is a buy at this level.
January 18th, 2012 at 2:10 pm
tony, Eve, why do you think copper is so strong even though the global economy is slowing down and is expected to slow down even more throughout 2012?
January 18th, 2012 at 2:31 pm
I sent this email to BNN today. The linked article sounds credible to me, and listening to “Butler on Business” online, they refer to this issue as if it’s fact and old news.
[quote]
I find it astonishing that with all the research BNN staff have done on the Keystone XL project, that no one has mentioned these points:
> opposition to the pipeline through Nebraska is led by a group called BOLD Nebraska
> BOLD is funded by Dick Holland
> Dick Holland is a close friend and business partner of Warren Buffett
> Warren Buffett owns Burlington Northern (BNSF)
> if Holland and BOLD are successful in blocking Keystone XL, Berkshire Hathaway will be the beneficiary
> the oil will still be moved from the oil sands to the USA, but it will go by rail, not via pipeline
The above found here:
http://www.readmorejoe.com/id92.html
Regards,
January 18th, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Re:HVU.TO Down 6% today, skirting $14, lowest level in one month, bollinger squeeze. Thoughts? Anyone tempted to buy?
January 18th, 2012 at 2:38 pm
FM.to is up 33% in one month, good stock.
January 18th, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Ron/Barrie:
Re:#97
Been watching all morning. Waiting to see if it gets any closer to yesterday’s low of $13.70 which I think it will before today’s close. Read #75 and Eve’s comments if you have not already. I like her thinking.
January 18th, 2012 at 3:13 pm
re my post at 75:
Top of keltner as of today for SPX is at 1311. So, the SPX could get up to that level – if it goes above 1315, then look for it to head to 1330 to 1344 (there’s resistance between 1340 to 1344).
Options pain is now showing at 1260 for the SPX for this Friday. There’ll need to be some really bad news by Friday in order to pull the SPX back to that level – so, I doubt that that 1260 can be relied upon for options’ expiration this for Friday.
eve
January 18th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Slava,
I think LULU is going to be pinned to $60 for Friday this week for options expiration. So, if it goes below $60 by any great amount before you need to cover on Friday, then I’d look to cover it at that point – you’d be lucky if you could cover below $59.
eve
January 18th, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Eve, thanks.. I have just two more days to cover lulu in my Investorline account. Any ideas where lulu is likely to head after Friday? I can cover in my Investorline account and immediately reshort in my Itrade account (if it’s feasable to remain short). Itrade has shares available.
I’m glad I covered fm short at $24.06 since it jumped to $24.89 a few minutes ago. Crazy stock! From $23.37 to $24.89 in one day on no news. That’s FM for you!
January 18th, 2012 at 3:27 pm
UBS recently gave FM.to a 12-months target of $25 and it almost reached it today (from $18.27 to $24.89 in one month).
January 18th, 2012 at 3:29 pm
I think it’s due for a short-term pullback:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FM.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p50576011959
(sorry Tony, I know you are not keen on this chart).
January 18th, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Slava
you asked a few day ago about fm, and my response was wait the upside resistance was 25 and downside support is 21, now you have this exact scenario why try to play with fire wait till you get at one of the two areas before pulling the trigger.
January 18th, 2012 at 3:49 pm
tony Says:
January 17th, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Slava,
if you look at the m-x you will see it in the top 3 of the day
with 21 jan calls and 25 Feb calls with most volume, now if you look this looks like we could get a short term retracement at 21 or 150MA and will see 25 as a top.
January 18th, 2012 at 3:51 pm
You mean to wait until $21 to short FM? I don’t think it will fall that low anytime soon.
January 18th, 2012 at 3:57 pm
Slava,
re copper price and FM:
FM trades PURELY with the copper price – so, when copper is up, FM will be up too – THAT’S the “news” re why FM is up today (copper is up 4 cents) and why FM has been up so much in the past month – because copper has been up by such a large amount too!
next week, the Chinese are on holidays for their New Year – usually, copper prices go down at that time of year when the Chinese are off for the New Year celebrations. When they return to the markets, they usually buy copper as they like the depressed price it gets to during their week off – so, they buy at that point. So, look for a pullback next week in copper and in FM and then a rise again in both the week afterwards.
eve
January 18th, 2012 at 3:59 pm
No slava you want to short at 25 up to 21… with a stop loss 5% above 25.
January 18th, 2012 at 4:00 pm
My tye.v is up $0.01 per share… on 300,000 shares. At least some good news.
January 18th, 2012 at 4:04 pm
Slava
you would be surprised. how markets react look at goldman, revenues are down and they are up today. so they are buying all the bad news.
January 18th, 2012 at 4:07 pm
Slava
if you short fm use 25 with a 5% stop loss
January 18th, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Tony,
Re GTE (5.11 + .29) I am a little surprised to see
the May 7.50 Call going for 0.25 and the May 5.00 Call for 0.70
The Feb Calls are fetching 0.35 cents at the 5$ strike (now ITM)
and just 0.05 cents at the 7.50 strike – where there is the most
open interest (3893), but the delta here is just .05.
I just find these premiums rediculously cheap.
So Tony, what’s up with this do you think? So high volume, and so cheap!
Slava,
As perhaps you would recall, I have traded GTE a few times
before, but just from the short side. Looking at the 1-year chart,
it has ben in a downtrend since Feb 2011. So I am not yet a
believer in the bull case. There have been 7 various rally attempts
since March 2011, but these always fizzle out after 20 to 40 days,
except for the 50% move off the Oct 4 bottom @ 4.20. But with that
rally, almost every stock on the exchange was bid up – So No, that
to me, was just a flash in the pan, so to speak. Almost everything
has since retested reality.
So let’s see, (5.11 – 4.77) by 3000 is $1020 on this “risky” stock,
of a little company, operating somewhere out in the jungles of Colombia,
and forever missing production targets…. uuhhhhmmm..
This is not me, but, if it were me, I would be saying,
Hasta la vista, Muchas Gracias Amigo, Hasta Manana Colombia.
BUT, just in case this turns out to be a hasty move,
I would also buy maybe 40 contracts representing 4000 shares
of those Feb 7.50 Calls @.05. Total premium = $200. This is a very
long shot – for 30 days only. But it keeps the other 820$ safe.
Even if you use a stop loss, say at 5.00, if it is hit, you
would be down 14 cents a share from here, which is $420.
If for some reason GTE will perfoem a moon shot in the next month,
these cheap calls will do the trick – & the more
it goes up, the more the delta will increase.
I am just saying, there is more than one way to do this.
FD Slava, I have no position in GTE today. But if it breaks
below 4.65 on my 2 hour chart, I will happily short it, this point
being where it broke out from the week’s congestion on Dec 27, and
got over the 38 period sma on this latest rally attempt.
January 18th, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Slava
I wonder if you want to short lulu but must cover, can you cover it and then reshort it would it work?
I think someone knows something and they want you not to be able to profit from it, cause everything on the US about lulu is a saying we don’t know if where its headed for the next few months but they are selling the calls and the puts, but by june 42.5 puts are being bought.
Just my word of advice I would try to defy them on this one.
January 18th, 2012 at 4:19 pm
PS Slava,
re copper price – look at what it’s done in the past few weeks:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COPPER&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p83617995256
It’s close to the top of the keltner – AND is VERY close to overbought on RSI too (above 70) – so, it definitely should be pulling back next week while the Chinese are not able to buy anything due to being on their holiday week.
Eve
January 18th, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Slava,
I’ve posted another note for you – BUT, it is in moderation currently too! Don’t know why though.
eve
January 18th, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Rol lew
you are asking the wrong kid about options,
I only know how to read them as support and resistance. delta,gamma,epsilon this is all greek for me. And I am italian just the other side of the pond ok in my case one whole boot and a pond.
January 18th, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Hi Ric,
The chart is hard to read for BA.TO – and this is why:
it is close to being oversold on stochastics – and the MACD histogram looks like it may be going up (sideways right now really) – BUUUTTT, the pattern showing on the chart is a bear flag – and if this DOES play out as a bear flag pattern, then the stock will DROP – and it will go towards the keltner bottom at $27.17 – OR it could find support at the last 2 prices it found support at which were $27.54 and $27.35. Also, 3 prices nearby to these were resistance points a few months ago – so they should now act as support. These 3 prices are $27.43, $27.33, and $27.23.
So, I would wait first to see if BA can get to oversold on stochastics (to see if that bear flag completes itself) – and at that point, there are many different price levels between $27.50 area to $27.17 area with $27.30 to $27.35 being the most likely area where it would find support – due to that area having both a prior resistance to it AND having a more recent support to it. $27.97 at this point would act as a resistance level too as that is the 9 day MA.
So, as the stock is still below the mid keltner and still below the 4 day MA AND is showing a potential bear flag playing out AND has not “yet” gotten to oversold on stochastics, then ALL of this tells me there “should” be more risk to the downside on it at this point than there is to the upside. If it goes instead up from here AND can get thru its 9 day mA, then it should then go above there to its next resistance which is at $27.36 to $27.40 area. IF it can get ABOVE there, then it could head to the keltner top at $28.87 – with resistance at a recent double top price of $28.85.
Here’s the chart so you can see what I’m refering to Ric:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BA.TO&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p28630083971
Hope this helps
Eve
January 18th, 2012 at 4:41 pm
PS Ric,
ooops, re this:
If it goes instead up from here AND can get thru its 9 day mA, then it should then go above there to its next resistance which is at $27.36 to $27.40 area
Those prices above should be: $28.36 to $28.40 area.
eve
January 18th, 2012 at 4:58 pm
Eve
Hi and good to see you on board today. I have not been on board much for a couple of days… saw your post on HVU , sold today at a small profit at $14.81. bought back in today at prices ranging from 14.32 – 14.15. The daily chart does not look so promising. Think I will be good to go in the a.m. ? What do you suggest? I suppose it depends on the futures — guess I’m just rattling my chain . Well, let me know your thoughts on this if you can. What are you trading anything these
days? Hope today has been better for you health wise
January 18th, 2012 at 5:20 pm
I wrote a long response to Eve, Tony and Rol but it seems to be missing! I have to concentrate on work now but I just wanted to express my gratitude to all three of you for sharing your strategies and helping me out! I really appreciate all your hard work and support.
January 18th, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Eve
Thanks for the response to the TA on BA.TO
This is really good stuff and helps me understand how to read charts better. I owe you a big thanks, and if you were close a big glass of vino tinto! Awesome.
January 18th, 2012 at 6:16 pm
Slava
Re#86
NTR
What you do is ask this guy to give you money to invest, if he does and he can sleep at night with your method of investing, then he is a keeper.
January 18th, 2012 at 6:39 pm
Hi Mick/nv
Re post# 123. Then they will both end up in the poor house.You call Slava’s investing a method? I call it sheer madness.
January 18th, 2012 at 6:45 pm
mick/inv, lol
He already told me that if we are “together” I’m not allowed to touch the stock market until I “know what I’m doing”. Investing is not his passion anyways.. Thank God!
P.S. mick, you were right about FM yesterday. I got a bit lucky on this one today since I covered both shorts at a profit before it took off.
January 18th, 2012 at 6:51 pm
Steve, why is it “sheer madness”? I now only short very overbought stocks (using TA).. what’s wrong with that? I got very unlucky with lulu and Kinross but both events were completely unexpected. I suppose the only crazy thing is the $ amounts of the positions, I need to reduce this in the future.
P.S. I remember when I shorted Netflix in the summer people on a different board were calling me mad and how did Netflix turn out? Unfortunately I didn’t keep my short long enough to realize substantial profit.. only $2k or smth like that (could have been $43k had I stuck with the short position until the bottom). I didn’t even mention my short here since I knew I would be in the “doghouse” with the regulars.
January 18th, 2012 at 6:58 pm
I need advice (anyone is welcome to comment). Here is the average cost of my short positions as of now. What is the probability that the prices will pull back to my cost and/or below?:
CMG av. short cost $346, 200 shares (current price $357)
LLL.to av. short cost $55, 600 shares (current price $61.18)
CP.to av. short cost $68.73, 800 shares (current price $71.91)
All three stocks have had a big run up lately, near 52-week highs and overbought. Which short positions would you cover and which ones would you keep? Thank you!
Above short positions total $160k.
January 18th, 2012 at 7:02 pm
steve, by the way, I made $80k from trading last year (on top of my full-time job income). My net worth is much much higher than that of an average 34-year old single female in Canada, so I must be doing smth right (perhaps just not in the last two months).
January 18th, 2012 at 7:05 pm
Slava
You made money on FM, that’s all that really matters. Now Fm.to is overbought on the rsi and just below the 20,3 keltner it also closed for the second day above R1 resistance, which is now support. Depending on what happens with copper tomorrow, FM may go above the 20,3 keltner and then might be considered for a short.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FM.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p49814319459
January 18th, 2012 at 7:13 pm
mick/inv, where do I see R1 resistance on the chart?
January 18th, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Slava
I meant R2, which is the top pivot point. In the chart above it is just below the 20,3 keltner
January 18th, 2012 at 7:20 pm
By the way, if CP shares were priced similarly to CN shares from a valuation point of view CP should be at $50 or so.
January 18th, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Hi all. Not that analysts really know much…
http://seekingalpha.com/article/320179-10-most-undervalued-large-cap-stocks-by-target-price?ifp=0&source=email_authors_alerts
January 18th, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Twany
Was watching Hvu.to today but did not buy any. Maybe tomorrow.
January 18th, 2012 at 7:42 pm
Hi Slava,
I have been playing the stockmarket for over 50 years,and along the way I have learned a few things.My way of looking at the markets is like Ron’s/BC.
Buying junior stocks on the venture exchange and shorting stocks in a strong uptrend over time will end very badly.I feel sorry for your troubles but you keep asking for help and you don’t follow the advise provided.I told you in a short note some time ago when HNU was around $9.00 to short it and go long HND.I use trend lines and stops and I do not ride any stock down.If you keep on going like this for any lenght of time your health will suffer as well as your hard earned cash.
On another topic Steve Jobs had a philosophy towards the end of his life, he said if I only have a few days to live what would I want to do ? Make money? run the company?etc. etc. this way it was easy to make the correct decisions.Good luck in whatever you do.
January 18th, 2012 at 7:51 pm
Slava: Re: 128…Congratulations, you goooo girl and ignore anyone that make silly remarks.
January 18th, 2012 at 8:01 pm
steve, I respect what you are saying. At the same time most uptrends end at some point and the downtrends begin. When I shorted CMG, lulu and CP I looked at a variety of factors – their valuation, their prospects, their P/E ratios in comparison with similar companies in the same industries, recent run ups in stocks prices (lulu is up over +30% in two weeks based on slightly improved guidance).. CP is up over 50% since September (although it’s the same business as back in September). I also look at the charts and watch for overbought levels. So the above three stocks do not look as a near-term buy at all.
As for the juniors I’ve learnt my lesson and I’m much more careful these days. I don’t invest more than $12k per junior co. and even then I read about the company, research their properties and make sure I buy at a low price. Many of them got really sold off in the last few weeks of December so it was a good time to pick some of them up.
January 18th, 2012 at 8:08 pm
kay, thank you for your kind words. Steve is right in some aspects and I know that I need to take much smaller $ positions. Sometimes it pays off, sometimes it doesn’t.. timing is so important. Overall my “sheer madness” method has not worked since early December when I bought HGU. I do regret not covering 1/2 half of my lulu short back on Jan. 9th.. and all of my CMG short on Jan. 12th. It is an exciting feeling to short 200 shares of CMG at $346 and see it at $344 within minutes.. $400 profit – just like that! I should have taken that and been grateful. Some people have to work a full week to make $400.. however when CMG short goes against you, those pesky 200 shares can create big losses.
January 18th, 2012 at 8:21 pm
Hi Tawny,
Oh Tawny, I am so sorry to hear you bought HVU today at over $14!! Once the markets started to show strength (around 10 am), it would have been best to just stay out of HVU altogether – and just have waited to see if it was going to break UP OR break DOWN from when it was flatlining around 1030 to 12. So, just something to keep in mind for next time.
As for where I see HVU going – it depends where the SPX goes. HVU could just go down though to its recent low of $13.70 and then bounce up from there – OR it could break support and go lower. It really depends what the SPX will do next. At some point soon, a break to the downside has to come in. But until that occurs, if you can get out of HVU at a profit tomorrow, I would do so – IF the markets are looking like they’re very bullish again I mean – and right now with oil and copper being up again, it looks like the markets will be bullish again tomorrow. I wrote this today re the SPX:
re my post at 75:
Top of keltner as of today for SPX is at 1311. So, the SPX could get up to that level – if it goes above 1315, then look for it to head to 1330 to 1344 (there’s resistance between 1340 to 1344).
Options pain is now showing at 1260 for the SPX for this Friday. There’ll need to be some really bad news by Friday in order to pull the SPX back to that level – so, I doubt that that 1260 can be relied upon for options’ expiration this for Friday.
—————————————————–
So, I hope this helps Tawny – patience though these days for shorting OR buying bear ETF’s OR buying HVU etc., is needed as these markets are just really bullish right now – BUT, nothing goes up forever!!
Eve
January 18th, 2012 at 8:21 pm
Also, most growth stocks with very high P/Es need to “grow” into their P/Es, deserve them, so to speak, over time. Look at Apple, Google – they are growing at a fast pace but their P/E ratios are now 15.51 and 21.57 respectively. CMG’s and Lulu’s P/E is over 55! McDonald’s has much better profit margin and return on equity, it’s also growing and its P/E is at 19.90.
January 18th, 2012 at 8:29 pm
Hi Ric,
glad to help – and glad to know you’re learning more with my posting of the chart and the TA
as for wine: )’m probably one of the oNLY women you’ll ever know of who doesn’t AT ALL “like” wine LOL. I’m either a fruity drink person OR a premium micro brew or imported from outside of North America beer person
But no wine!! yuck 
but thank you nonetheless for the thought – that was very sweet 
eve
January 18th, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Slawa – post 132;
By the way, if CP shares were priced similarly to CN shares from a valuation point of view CP should be at $50 or so.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/eye-on-equities/charts-turning-ugly-for-rbc-shares/article2306882/
CIBC World Markets Inc. analyst Jacob Bout has jacked up his price target on Canadian Pacific Railway Ltd. (CP-T71.911.371.94%) by 18 per cent as the high-profile battle over who should lead the company rages on.
Mr. Bout raised his price target to $77 from $65. He reiterated his rating of “sector perform.”
January 18th, 2012 at 8:34 pm
Hi Eve, thank you again for your comments re copper and the chart.
By the way, what are your thoughts on my post #127 when you have a few minutes? What would you do in my position? I’m quite certain the pullback will arrive soon.
January 18th, 2012 at 8:39 pm
WLM, $77 provided that “Mr. Bout notes that the hope is that CP’s operating ratio, which has significantly trailed that of rival CN, could eventually come down within a few percentage points of CN’s under Mr. Harrison’s leadership. Mr. Bout estimates that every 1-point improvement in CP’s operating ratio adds 10 to 15 cents in earnings per share, so lowering its operating ratio from current levels to CP’s 70 per cent target would add approximately 90 cents to CP’s earnings per share.”
He HOPES that their operating ratio will improve while the current board of directors says it’s not possible.
January 18th, 2012 at 8:41 pm
WLM, by the way, most analysts are COMPLETELY useless and are more frequently wrong than right. Now that CP is north of $71 he is giving it a target of $77.. where was he earlier? Most analysts’ upgrades arrive when the stock is at its top – look at Nortel, Netflix in the summer of 2011, etc.
January 18th, 2012 at 8:52 pm
Slava
NTR
Re my earlier comment … enjoy the heat while it is available. A physical chemistry + good humour vs. money ? I say, go with your heart…. passion can burn out, laughter together is grreat stuff, same values, important. I must say I think it’s great that you are using your brains in the situation and evaluating, not just giving in to emotions. Time will play everything out as it is meant to be.
BTW Re #128, did you make all your capital investing, or is some from real estate, inheritance, etc…. noin of my business… just curious, because, as you say, you are unusally well positioned – financially speaking LOL – for a woman your age.
January 18th, 2012 at 8:55 pm
Eve
Thanks so much for answering my ramblings… I guess I have been jumpring the gun but with so many talking correction, and more dowside potential than upside risk, I feel that I have been buy8ing HVU with less risk than buying anything long at the moment.
AT the moment, US futures don’t look great, but I know that can change greatly by morning. The thing with HVU is it can spike up so fast you feel like it’s too late to get in. Will watch carefully and listen for news in the a.m. Thanks so much.
January 18th, 2012 at 8:55 pm
Well, I think I posted enough for one day. You guys would be so bored without me here!
I suppose I had to assume the role of injecting some “sheer madness” into our conversations. Anyways, I hope someone gets a chance to glance at my post #127 and respond with an opinion. I’ll get up extra early tomorrow morning to review this evening’s posts. I’m off to my fitness class and then I’m meeting my dear Michael for sushi.. I think I’m falling in love or smth like that. Have a great evening everyone 
January 18th, 2012 at 8:59 pm
Eve
Just looked at the daily chart for HVU. The 4ma is 14.77 and the price closed at 18.33. Doesn’t that mean the price should come back up? Just trying to understand
January 18th, 2012 at 9:02 pm
NTR
Tawny, some from real estate (I sold my condo in 2011), most from the savings of employment income and investing. No inheritance, nothing was ever given to me (well, except for gifts from ex-boyfriends). As you can tell I’m currently down around $10k on my short positions, all in just over ONE WEEK. Pretty scary. I just hope that I don’t break under the mounting pressure and cover right before those three stocks pull back. I just didn’t expect this much strength.. three weeks of rising markets. Okay, I’m off now.
January 18th, 2012 at 9:04 pm
Tony,questions re options. The Call options on BHP for Jan & Feb are all green (puts red) & open interest is higher on calls than puts.Does the NET change from day to day or in any time frame…in other words is what I see now be the same tomorrow a.m. Thx..
January 18th, 2012 at 9:10 pm
PS Tawny,
The good thing is though that the SPX should try to get back to its 4 day MA tomorrow – which is showing on the chart today as 1296 – so, tomorrow, it might be at around 1300 – check it in the a.m. at just after 930 am on stockcharts to see the new 4 day MA – and if it goes down even 4-6 points tomorrow BEFORE going higher (IF it goes higher tomorrow I mean), then you should be able to get out of HVU at a small profit. But anytime now really the SPX should be doing a pullback. So, that’s something to always keep in mind.
Eve
January 18th, 2012 at 9:17 pm
Slava
Just a quick thought on stop-losses ’cause there was some discussion of them the other night re: your kinross fiasco. First, let me say that I don’t use them as much as I should either. Second, let me say that I’m writing from Edmonton so my fingers may freeze to the keyboard at any moment. You are right that a stop loss would not have saved you from the huge drop, however, had you put in a stop when you bought the stock you would have been out months ago. The effect of that may have been to at least have you re-evaluate whether you really wanted to be in the stock or not. If you still felt it was a good investment, then you would rebuy (and then probably have been stopped out again as the stock kept underperforming). The point that I’m starting to see is that given that one can get in and out of stocks for 10 bucks and given how easy it is for us to sometimes just let things slide, one of the real benefits to the stop-loss is to get us out fairly early and have us then re-think our postion. Just for what it is worth…
January 18th, 2012 at 9:17 pm
Tawny,
Your question re HVU and the 4 day:
HVU can stay away from the 4 day for 2-3 days in a row – without even touching it. BUUTT, as I said, the markets should be pulling back anytime now – especially when the keltner top is at 1311 (and we’re close at 1308) – and the keltner top at the extreeme setting of mick/nv’s of 3.0 puts the SPX at 1320. But with getting to 1320, HVU should be well below $13.70 – maybe around $12?? at that point. maybe lower.
eve
January 18th, 2012 at 9:25 pm
Hi Eve,
Re: Post 72
I was wondering if it’s still good sector to get and if it’s not too late. Thank you and have a great evening, Ania
January 18th, 2012 at 10:10 pm
Eve #108 – Very interesting, I was enjoying small gains in LUN.TO due to the copper and base metal prices. Looks like that will slide again next week?
Sell now ($250 loss) and get some back on FM.to as it goes up after the Chinese Holidays?
NTR: The last family outing before the kids leave for the Airport is Dim Sum, complete with Dragon Dances
A family tradition!
January 18th, 2012 at 10:19 pm
Tony and Paul
Thanks for the comments about trp.to today.
I was in training for a whole day. Did not have time to look at market. But i did set up a buy order @42.13 for 300 shares. Guess it was filled. I was surprised about the chart after close. It came back up but still under 42.
I will Check open today . Most likely i will have to dump this one.
Kelly.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:28 pm
CJ
I have been wanting to get back to you re PB. I did nopt say that I didn’t like – It was not really “out of the box” yet.
No, I have been concerned that I need a new regular computer for my home office as it is almost as tired as I am. LOL And my thinking is that the $300. for the P.B. could be applied to the purchase of a new P.C.
I am now just in the process of getting my PB set up to see if I will like it or not. I went in to talk to computer expert at Staples (I bought mine on line)… he thinks P.B. is the best. So there are a variety of opinions on it. I have seen on-line reviews and many are very keen on it. Hopefully, if all goes well, I will keep it and postpone a new PC until later on.
Thanks for offering to help… that was not what I was asking though. You get 90 days of free on-line support – hope you are aware of that. If you haven’t you should register and get on-board for help.
I am really not a night person. I am not a morning person either.
Well, I guess I like mid day best!
January 18th, 2012 at 10:29 pm
CJ or Eve
Could you please give me the link to the site you use for stock market futures… much appreciated.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:31 pm
CJ
re P.B.: Also there is a “Getting Started Video” – lots of good information. I am using this to get set up and going. Just don’t have much time and energy for it.
http://ca.blackberry.com/support/playbook-support/
January 18th, 2012 at 10:36 pm
#159
Tawny, for futures I use http://www.forexpros.com/indices/indices-futures (you can pick all kinds of futures from the top menu – real time quotes). Hope it helps!
January 18th, 2012 at 10:41 pm
Anna/To
Thanks. Appreciate that site and it sure helps.
January 18th, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Tawney #159
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
January 18th, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Tawney #158 NTR
I have techie son-in-law here now working on my desktop – not old, but something slowing it to a crawl; lots of room on HDs that do not need defragging, Diskclean done regularly, 2Gigs RAM and running Win 7 Pro. Hope he can speed it up for me. He may be able to help me figure how to cut and paste too
(on the pb I mean!)
Had it with me today to use as camera (wish I had taken my Nikon instead) pb does not respond to a tap from a gloved finger LOL – so I near froze my digits!!!
UK daughter laughed as she slipped on a special pair of gloves I bought her for Christmas 2010 – that keeps hands warm AND allows transmission on digital devices like smart phones etc…. I think I might get me a pair (if I ever make any money to spend)
January 18th, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Speaking of futures – anyone trading Orange Juice ???? Suggested $US stocks for same?
Should be good for a DAY TRADE?
Thanks to any who respond!
January 18th, 2012 at 11:14 pm
CJ
Thanks for futures and good luck with your computer. You are so lucky to have others to turn to…. I have no one. Makes me independent, self-sufficient, and exhausted
January 18th, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Hi Slava,
I was thinking of you girl, and recall mr Whitney tilson from T2 capital was short on Nflx until it fell off a cliff, and then he said it was time to buy into it.
also during the 2002-2007 house bubble on a documentary with host D Faber from cnbc he talks to one HF who shorted the market all the way through investing a 1B$ and from the report he made quite some money of the trade.
so you can short Lulu until my previous comment 42.5 but I recommend have a stop loss. chart wise it will be moving south pretty soon probably starting monday.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Hi Ania,
I’m so sorry – I never saw your post earlier! I did’t read all the posts today, so, I’m sorry about that.
re PPLT:
I don’t know about seasonality for this BUT I can tell you that it is close to the top of the keltner – top is at $151.73 and today the stock is at $150.54. It is overbought too on stochastics. If it gets above the top keltner, then there is resistance at the $154 to $155/56 area. So, it may still have further to go BUT it might only have another $1 to $5 to go at this point. A better entry would be around the mid keltner at $145 – this is also the 9 day MA.
for IWM:
It’s gone above resistance of the $76 area – that’s a good sign. It is overbought though – and with the top of the keltner being at $78.47 for the 2.5 setting, the upside seems limited as it closed today at $77.72. The keltner top for the extreme setting of 3.0 is at $79.14 – so, it has the potential to run up to there in the near term – and possibly to $80. But just as with so many other stocks these days, it seems a more prudent move would be to wait for a pullback – it would most likely just pullback to the mid keltner which is currently at $75.13 – OR, if it does get to that $79/ $80 area, then the mid keltner would most likely be at around the $76 level which, being that it was resistance in the past, it should serve as a support point on a pullback. As of TODAY, the 9 day MA is at $76.12 – so, once the price goes higher from here (as I suspect it will), when it finally does pullback, it might just pullback to the 9 day MA (which will be at a higher price each day the ETF goes higher) and then resume the uptrend.
So, an eventual pullback would take it back to either the 9 day OR to the mid keltner – so, look for a chance to enter at either level (if you’re looking to enter that is) once the ETF does its eventual pullback.
Hope this helps Ania.
eve
January 18th, 2012 at 11:27 pm
Slava,
On another note Recall CP people were asking me where it was headed And back then I said we should see a short term retracement before it heads higher in the 60s, the following day RBC came out and changed their vue on it, the stock simply ignored the comments and went to my target and beyond.
.
CP is not the best compared to CN but if they get the ex-executive of CN and rrestructure the company this not only will boost the outlook on CP but will make them fierce competitors to the rest of the rail industry and this is what you are looking for good managers executives to run a company or put it on a good track
January 18th, 2012 at 11:31 pm
Hi Tawny,
I use BOTH those sites that CJ and Anna/TO have provided to you! I gave out that forexpros site on here last summer – and someone else on here told me a few months later of that finviz site (I can’t recall whom it was though). But I do have BOTH of them set up on my computer as 2 tabs – so, I check the forexpros to see what the European and Asian and U.S. markets are doing each day – and then I look on the finviz site and at a glance I can see EVERYTHING I need to watch like US futures, copper, oil, gold, cdn dollar, Euro dollar, grain price, corn price, gold, silver, etc etc. It is an awesome site to just be able to view everything at a single glance
And each page refreshes automatically – except the finviz refreshes every 10 minutes or so whereas forexpros does it by the second – so everything on there is in current real time.
Eve
January 18th, 2012 at 11:33 pm
Hi CJ,
Yes, next week copper “should” pullback – and then the week afterwards, it should go up again with the New Year celebrations being completed and everyone back at work in China buying again.
Eve
January 18th, 2012 at 11:33 pm
151 Jos Qc.
the net changes daily as it is what people think the option is worth, so they can drive it up or down. but this is just an indicator of where its headed, need to use open interest and volume to see if where the activity lies,
If strike price is close to current price and you see some buying you know its headed highr, if Strike is 10$ above and see some selling the calls then this is your resistance target.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:36 pm
Jos,
btw are you a member of the montreal ctsa?
just curious thats all.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:37 pm
Slava,
re your post at 127?? Here’s your post at 127:
Slava Says:
January 18th, 2012 at 6:45 pm
mick/inv, lol He already told me that if we are “together” I’m not allowed to touch the stock market until I “know what I’m doing”. Investing is not his passion anyways.. Thank God!
P.S. mick, you were right about FM yesterday. I got a bit lucky on this one today since I covered both shorts at a profit before it took off.
——————————————————————————
Not sure though what you’re asking me to comment on?? So, please explain Slava??
Thank you
Eve
January 18th, 2012 at 11:38 pm
Think my computer has a virus…I felling more and more congested.
Stupid machine have to give you a treatment for viruses.
so please be careful my messages may be have the flu.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:40 pm
Eve her post she directed to us never got through,
I think my stuffy nose is contagious, as some posts don’t seem to get through.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:41 pm
gmsa is conspicuously absent from the board for several days – should we be concerned or did I miss a post somewhere?
January 18th, 2012 at 11:44 pm
Kelly K
Sorry for todays remark on trp, this is why at times its better to have some options so that if there is news on stand by, we can always bailout, and have securities fixed.
January 18th, 2012 at 11:48 pm
Well, will pop back tomorrow to hopefully see COG move higher come on Natty Gas one or two more days would be nice!
What happens Friday with all the option expiration’s?? Can we tell from looking at an individual stock’s Jan options, how the market will go for that stock on that day?? Or is it just a good day to sit back and stay out of trouble?
I must spend all the time I can with my company, but must also be here in the morning!
Night all !
January 18th, 2012 at 11:51 pm
cj visa is getting close to 105
January 18th, 2012 at 11:52 pm
CJ
gmsa must be trading like crazy
January 18th, 2012 at 11:55 pm
Ok im gone for my beauty rest.
other wise no one will fix my nose.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:00 am
Nasty gas tanking HARD as I type ($2.410). Tomorrow EIA inventory report at 10:30 – will go prob. even lower after that.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:09 am
Slava
Re: #127
CMG
This stock has been in an uptrend since 2009 with no signs of faltering. The daily chart shows that it is trying to break resistance at 357, with the next stop the 20,3 keltner, before it pulls back. CMG keeps making higher highs and higher lows, I would not want to be short. On a pullback, if that occurs, it may drop to the mid-keltner and make your money back, but don’t count on it.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p06006472759&a=254298910
LLL.to
This stock has also been in a nice uptrend since 2009 with a couple of minor pullbacks along the way. It is now dropped below the 20,3 keltner, but there is support at $59 and $56, if it drops thru those then you will get your money back (probably) but that is a long way to fall.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LLL.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p90887278708&a=254299174
CP.to
Too much noise with this stock. It’s downtrend line was broken in Oct and has been essentially up since then. it’s now coming up against resistance at 72.10, if it breaks thru that then it will head to the top of the 20,3 keltner and possibly go to 75 before pulling back. this stock has been driven by news so no telling what will happen next.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CP.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p66423221442&a=254299348&listNum=15
I think you need to wait until stocks are overbought on the RSI and above the 20,3 keltner before considering shorting as that is when they will usually pull back. Trying to short on the way up might not work out as well.