ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Thursday January 19th
U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 5 points in pre-opening trade.
Equity markets were virtually unchanged following release of economic data at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for December Consumer Prices was an increase of 0.1%. Actual was no change from November. Ex food and energy, consensus for December Consumer Prices was an increase of 0.1%. Actual was a gain of 0.1%. Consensus for weekly jobless claims was 387,000 versus 402,000 last week. Actual was 352,000, down 50,000. Consensus for December Home Sales was 670,000 versus 685,000 in November. Actual was 657,000, down 4.1%.
Fourth quarter earnings flooded in this morning. Companies reporting fourth quarter results included Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, eBay, Union Pacific, Johnson Controls and PPG Industries. Most reported better than consensus earnings including Morgan Stanley and Bank of America moved higher after reporting better than consensus earnings. Johnson Controls moved lower after reported worse than expected earnings.
UBS downgraded the U.S. homebuilder sector. Lennar, DR Horton and Toll Brothers were downgraded from Buy to Neutral. KB Homes was downgraded from Neutral to Sell.
Eastman Kodak declared Chapter 11 bankruptcy.
Technical Watch
SPDR S&P Homebuilders Index ETF (NYSE: XHB) – $19.12 is expected to open lower after UBS downgraded five stocks in the sector. The sector and its related ETFs have a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $14.92. Units trade above their 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the beginning of October. However, short term momentum indicators are overbought. Preferred strategy is to accumulate units on weakness closer to its 50 day moving average at $16.77.
Freeport McMoran Copper & Gold (NYSE: FCX) – $44.47 added 2.9% after reporting higher than expected fourth quarter earnings. The stock has a positive technical profile. Yesterday, the stock broke above resistance at $43.23 and moved above its 200 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive at the beginning of October. However, short term momentum indicators currently are overbought. Seasonal influences are just turning positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to its 50 day moving average at $38.51.
Freeport-McMoRan Copper & Gold Inc. (NYSE:FCX) Seasonal Chart
eBay, Inc. (NASDAQ: EBAY) – $31.22 added 2.9% after reporting higher than expected quarterly results. The stock has a mixed and deteriorating technical profile. Intermediate trend is neutral. The stock fell below its 50 and 200 day moving averages earlier this week, but could move above these levels today. Short term momentum indicators are trending lower. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since the middle of September. Seasonal influences are neutral until the end of February. Preferred strategy is to use strength closer to resistance at $34.43 to liquidate positions.
eBay Inc. (NASDAQ:EBAY) Seasonal Chart
Mark Leibovit’s Daily Comment on Gold
More information on Mark’s services is available at
http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp
GOLD – ACTION ALERT – BUY
Silver at 33-35 and Gold around 1700+ still appear to viable short to near-term targets. That said, I am not a bear here though I am watching my back. The tops made in silver last April/May and in gold August/September are still very well be significant barriers, suggesting it could take many months or more before the bull reasserts himself and we breakthrough to new highs. Regardless, I would continue to dollar-cost-average the physical metals and keep them in a secret place. Desperate governments do desperate things including dramatically devaluing currencies or confiscating valuables or making it unpatriotic not to do so. But, just as importantly, the game is fixed. I presented the www.gata.org story to you a couple of days ago clearly documenting that rallies in the Asian markets (which are the true cash markets) are ‘smacked down’ when the phoney paper market and the London AM and PM fixes take over. Just as Ron Paul correctly calls for the abolishment of the Federal Reserve we also need to abolish phoney markets such as the CME/COMEX and even ETFs that cannot fully document and back the physical assets they claim to hold.
Weekly Select Sector SPDRs Review
Technology
· Intermediate trend is up. Units broke above resistance yesterday at $26.44.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but trending higher.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is negative, but was positive last week.
Materials
· Intermediate trend changed from neutral to positive on a break above resistance at $35.89.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Consumer Discretionary
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $36.12.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Industrials
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $30.87.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Energy
· Intermediate trend in neutral. Support is at $63.56 and resistance is at $72.88.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are rolled over from overbought levels and are trending down.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has turned from positive to at least neutral.
Consumer Staples
· Intermediate trend is up. Resistance has formed at $32.78. Support is at $29.92.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels and are trending down.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is negative.
Financial Services
· Intermediate trend is neutral. Support is at $11.65 and resistance is at $14.08.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is positive.
Health Care
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $31.50.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is turning negative.
Utilities
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $32.81. Resistance has formed at $36.27.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels and are trending down. Stochastics already are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Conclusion: Materials, Industrials, Technology and Consumer Discretionary are leading the S&P 500 Index higher. All other sectors have rolled over or showing early signs of rolling over.
INVESTMENT COMMENTARY
Thursday, January 9 2012
Our latest issue of CastleMoore Investment News is out. To receive your bi-monthly copy, please sign up at http://www.castlemoore.com/investorcentre/signup.php. We’re sending them out right now. Please join Hap Sneddon, Chief Portfolio Manager and President on BNN’s Market Call Tonight to take your questions on technical analysis and macro portfolio strategy
CHARTS of the WEEK
S&P 500
We presented this chart last week of the S&P 500 noting the overbought conditions…….
…and today a week later things have become more overbought. We are modestly short in our Two-Way portfolio, but expect things to hold in the 1225-1235 range
TSX Composite
The TSX too is still in overbought territory, but as many investors should know, things may stay in this state longer than makes any logical sense. Support is between 12,000 and 11,800
Gold
This daily chart of gold bullion shows overhead resistance nearby around $1700 USD/oz. We do not own gold, and are more inclined to become modestly short for certain portfolio types just below $1700 than to become long
Bonds –US
US long bonds are still in buy mode, though Canadian bonds have seen better action lately (below). This chart which shows 30 year yields has support at 3.10-15% and resistance at 2.70%. Its all backwards to what you are used to with regular equity or commodity securities. i.e. Down is good = profit
Canadian long bonds are still in an uptrend having broken to new highs after US long bonds plateaued. The action this week is bearish with an engulfing pattern made yesterday on the dailies. The long term chart is still quite bullish. This chart of an ETF of a basket of long bonds, which also includes high quality corporates and government bonds, would register a short term sell upon breaking the early January low.
Crude oil is looking a little toppy and maybe set for a pullback and shorting opportunity if it breaks below $98.50 USD/barrel.
If you like to receive bi-monthly newsletter, know more about our model portfolios or access an audio file of our investment philosophy, “Modern Financial Fiascos”, click on the link
http://www.castlemoore.com/investorcentre/signup.php.
CastleMoore Inc. uses a proprietary Risk/Reward Matrix that places clients with minimum portfolios of $500,000 within one of 12 discretionary portfolios based on risk tolerance, investment objectives, income, net worth and investing experience. For more information on our methodology please contact us.
CastleMoore Inc.
Buy, Hold…and Know When to Sell
This commentary is not to be considered as offering investment advice on any particular security or market. Please consult a professional or if you invest on your own do your homework and get a good plan, before risking any of your hard earned money. The information provided in CastleMoore Investment Commentary or News, a publication for clients and friends of CastleMoore Inc., is intended to provide a broad look at investing wisdom, and in particular, investment methodologies or techniques. We avoid recommending specific securities due to the inherent risk any one security poses to ones’ overall investment success. Our advice to our clients is based on their risk tolerance, investment objectives, previous market experience, net worth and current income. Please contact CastleMoore Inc. if you require further clarification on this disclaimer.
The World Outlook Financial Conference
Friday, February 10 and Saturday, February 11
Westin Bayshore Hotel, Vancouver, B.C.
Mr. Vialoux will be presenting.
Here is the link:
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Short selling best returning hedge strategy in 2011”. Following is a link to the report.
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/01/18/short-selling-best-returning-hedge-strategy-in-2011/
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC January 18th 2011
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
| Sponsored By... |
|
|
|
Discussions from the Tech Talk Forum:
An error has occurred, which probably means the feed is down. Try again later.
|
January 19th, 2012 at 7:24 am
Re 127 from Wed 18th
CMG av. short cost $346, 200 shares (current price $357) = $11 change
LLL.to av. short cost $55, 600 shares (current price $61.18) = $6 change
CP.to av. short cost $68.73, 800 shares (current price $71.91)= $3 change
Slava, my commenting after the fact, on these trades or any trades, is really
next to useless, because I don’t have any exposure here, plus, each person
trades differently, so what makes sense to me would be completely out to
lunch for many other people, but I will give it a try, knowing that we are
all wired differently…… This is more of an approach than specific advice, OK?
My approach to trading is always to have diversification and balance,
always to have longs and shorts at the same time – no matter what “the
market” seems to be doing at the time. Probably just the mere thought
of doing this would not make any sense to many people, but I cannot
“live” without it.
So if some positions are making loses, I would have other positions
that are making money. This allows me to not to have to panic if some
of my positions are not working out. It also allows me to take more
pain, longer, in individual names.
So what I would do is reduce all of these positions above and use the money
freed up to get some other shorts and / or some other longs, depending on
what distribution I already have, and whether I wanted to be net long
or net short.
The finviz screener is a good site with a list of ideas every day.
I have a list of longs and shorts that I revise every month or two.
I very rarely have more than 5% of my portfolio in one name.
As you know, this sort of approach will not make you 378% per year, so right
of the bat, it may not appeal to everyone. But on the other hand, I cannot
remember any time when I was in a panic to sell something quick, or to cover a short.
When “the market” is trending down, I reduce my longs, & I go to my list
of small useless companies, that are in a down trend, and short a bunch
of them, gradually. When the market reverses, I reduce my shorts and get
more long, gradually.
Some stocks will be trending down, no matter what. I do not have the nuts
to short strong stocks, nor the courage to go long on a loser. Again
many people have no trouble at all doing these counter trend trades.
Each of us has to figure out what our method is.
With your experience, you can do it too. We each need a method
that allows us to sleep easy night or day.
I think it helps if people start just giving ideas instead of
asking for ideas, or for valiidation.
When you try give ideas, you realize that you have also to “think through”
what you are saying. This makes each of us a better trader.
So I guess my comment to #127 is… start writing out the main points
that make up your approach to managing your money.
January 19th, 2012 at 7:35 am
Tony
No need to be sorry for giving advice. Im very thankful for getting advice from anybody here. That takes a lot of time type and thinking for other people.
I was not so sure about buying trp.to. It only stood above 4ma for one day. Plus $39 on the put side. That is why i only bought 300 shares. It is a loss that i can take. Don’t worry.
Kelly
January 19th, 2012 at 8:27 am
Rachel I don’t know when google will come up with earnings usually after the close,
with current in the last week or so, I have a funny feeling it will jump higher afterwards. only something I picked up when I traded rimm back in 07, and tried this theory on other companies,
here is the theory if in the last week prior to earnings price declines after earnings they jump higher if instead price increases then price will fall off a cliff.
This is why it is important to know when a company reports earnings.
so you don’t get suckered in. I rather buy after earnings then before. so you don’t get a surprise the next day.
January 19th, 2012 at 8:33 am
Rol Lew,
I love your approach on trading the trend.
January 19th, 2012 at 8:40 am
Hi Slava ,
NTR
I have been reading when I can and hope you n other members have good trading. I am going to a night before marriage party as I write and same party n another marriage on 22. So 4 days in a row going to be drunk, lol.
I am out of all including hgu at 13.25 so no concern while I can’t trade and drunk. I unlocked my iPhone so online 24/7 now although it’s not much fast but I got 2 gb of data for less than $2.
Later
Kam
January 19th, 2012 at 8:44 am
Kelly K
thx for not keeping as grudge, this is why trailing stops are important and if they don’t get triggered you must do what you must do, even if its a glitch in the system.
January 19th, 2012 at 8:56 am
Just read castlemoore review,
and they are saying the same thing as i posted a few days ago, where I think gold is going lower, after it reaches the 50MA/150ma cross.
they target 1700 as a top I’m more inclined to say 1676.
January 19th, 2012 at 9:12 am
Tony, Re#173 yesterday.
Not a member of montreal ctsa,only a member of Jos ctsa (which only has 1 member).
January 19th, 2012 at 9:17 am
hehe,
you ‘re in st-lambert.
January 19th, 2012 at 9:23 am
Tony
I hardly hold grudge on anybody.
I am in the training room again. so no time to watch market. I set up a sell order. looks like it is fighting for $42 for OE this week. but the certainty is unsure now. I don’t like riding it down.
Kelly
January 19th, 2012 at 9:42 am
Tony
Off the western tip of the island..west of Vaudreuil
January 19th, 2012 at 10:14 am
Jos How was 2011 trading for you?
January 19th, 2012 at 10:15 am
tony, Rol Lew, mick/inv – thank you very much for your responses. Rol, this is what I’ve been trying to do as well – keep some short positions to offset long positions. Obviously as of now it doesn’t look like I picked the right stocks to short. I just didn’t want to be “long only” and then feel devastated on the days when markets take a plunge. So I picked expensive stocks which have had a big run up recently. Momentum still seems to be there for them.. Everything continues to be one big expensive learning lesson. I need to open a practice trading account and use virtual money to experiment with various trading techniques, not my hard earned cash.
January 19th, 2012 at 10:18 am
Slava,
you don’t need a practice account, you can write on paper, what you think using your judgement from PE peg, fundies, TA, options and see if it comes true.
January 19th, 2012 at 10:24 am
how do think I learned how to trade I used different parameters and puted to a stress test before becoming not to shabby tradr.
January 19th, 2012 at 10:28 am
Tony…have made good money this fall and so far this winter, thx to your 4/9/18 which has made it EASIER
January 19th, 2012 at 10:30 am
Eve,
what did you do with sina?
was it just a trial test with options reading or did you trade it.
January 19th, 2012 at 10:30 am
Tony….NTR
are you on the island..
January 19th, 2012 at 10:31 am
Tony,
Out of curiosity, what usually happens on the option expiry date – sell off at the open? Probably will sell SLV today.
Thanks
Deb
January 19th, 2012 at 10:33 am
Jos
glad I could help.
you know on top of it I add the 38/50/100/150/200 it helps to see a clear picture of where to add your resistance and support.
January 19th, 2012 at 10:36 am
Jos
NTR
I’m on the second island. ok 2nd biggest there so many islands around that it can be confusing.
hey I have nothing to envy to our Vancouverites.I to live on an island
January 19th, 2012 at 10:38 am
COG
not a natty day lower we go.
January 19th, 2012 at 10:39 am
Tony, is ~$24 a reasonable entry pt for Husky HSE.to ? the 4 is creeping up towards the 9 and except for the October low, $23 something appears to be it’s low most years with it going higher starting around now. Is it ill-advised to buy until the 4 actually crosses the 9 ? Thanks, Paul
January 19th, 2012 at 10:43 am
tony
Hi! I am in HVU and at a loss, so hedging with SSO. I feel like I am watching paint dry! As Eve said, the S&P reached 1311 and is at a cross road – which way do you think it will go?
January 19th, 2012 at 10:48 am
De
good question
usually depending on where price action is starting on the thursday, you tend see erractic moves about 2-4% oscillations. trying to move and catch up to open interest levels if its in a close range, and then on friday it will move on to the other direction depending if it was able to catch up and in the afternoon you see a reversal.
January 19th, 2012 at 10:53 am
Slava
gte why did you have to give me this one? I traded it from 4.77 to 5.20 then waited and simply forgot about it, and now its back to 5.40
no but couldn’t you ask me for my opinion like 3 days ago….
damn this is this would have been 1.20 on a below 5$ stock 25 % and more cause I wanted to ride the W….argghhhhh
January 19th, 2012 at 10:55 am
For all the fans of Nasty Gas here – In and out of HSD right after the inventory report. Had to be nimble and make 2 trades in less than 1 minute but it was worth it! There’s always a bit of lag between the news and the stock action there; if report is bearish (below expectations) you’re guaranteed to make some $$$ on HSD side. Thought I share this (risky) trading idea – only for the quick and brave!
January 19th, 2012 at 10:55 am
wow love apple and mcgraw hill vision on the text book an interactive book looks amazing just to think about it
ok the steel construction text book at 347$ that is simply insane I don’t think the egyptians and the romans had such books and their structure are better then the ones we have here as they fall during construction.
January 19th, 2012 at 11:00 am
Tawny, I’m “trapped” in HVU as well, but do not want to throw in the towel before Greece talks results. If they reach agreement I think I’ll have to take the loss – markets seem to be rallying no matter what! Can’t wait for that elusive pullback on S&P…
January 19th, 2012 at 11:01 am
SU.TO is breaking the resistance. we can add other half sold yeasterday, and set up stop loss under 33.
January 19th, 2012 at 11:02 am
Paul,
HSE, produces the heavy oil is not recommended and looking at the chart unless it can break above the 50MA, which seems to be current resistance
and looking at it without the price bars, I would wait till I see 4MA cross above the 50MA to say its headed higher.
January 19th, 2012 at 11:06 am
Oh my – wish I had seen this earlier!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FFIV&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p81006110596
January 19th, 2012 at 11:08 am
Wow, I sure can pick some losers
thanks Tony. Any oils you would buy in here ?
January 19th, 2012 at 11:10 am
CJ
re #32. You have 20/20 vision (thru the rear view mirror) LOL
Why don’t we know about these great moves in advance… someone must?
January 19th, 2012 at 11:17 am
tawny
hvu being volatility will not work using the 4yr old running to the street analogy,
this one is a big boy the only way you will see it run home its because it knows it did something really bad, probably stole something, or smoked a nice bat and saw the cops,
my w%R is doing lower highs, so I would keep a close high on when it would move north
if it breaks below 13.14 expect it to move to around 11.50 this is using pivot points.
as for options on this one there are none.
January 19th, 2012 at 11:19 am
Just a reminder to our Torontonians March 3rd Toronto option education
45$ at the toronto hilton you have breakfast and lunch,
so thats not such a bad deal,
January 19th, 2012 at 11:21 am
Anna
Re#29 Good to know I’m not alone in my thinking. But I know the markets will do what they do no matter what I think… they just don’t give a d—-. The S&P is going up a little, while HVU is going down a lot.
Do you have any long positions as well?
January 19th, 2012 at 11:27 am
tony re ##35
Okay – I didn’t know that the 4 yr. kid did things differently – so thank you for this new knowledge. Also, thanks for your thoughts on this. I was wonderiung where to give up; but Anna’s point on greece is also good thinking. hmmm.
I am watching closly. As I said to Anna, the SSO is really not going up at the same pace the HVU is going down.
January 19th, 2012 at 11:28 am
Paul
not true cause as I was looking at the m-x website they just made the top 10 list with 1900 contracts ok most is for tomorrow I wish it was for February. probably something brewing but wha?
maybe management change, or something great expected I cant say but no guts no glory as they say look at daylight last Cdn Thxgiving it came up good with a 2X your investment.
this is the beauty of canada may it be a Mickey stock market but when you see a company go on the m-x wonder why? if not a regular,
look at National bank this week its been there at least 2 times and last time i took a peak they were trading 76$ feb contracts and the stock was at 72$ thats 5% in 2-3 days.
January 19th, 2012 at 11:33 am
#37
Tawny – with HVU you have the issue of daily re-balancing and contango which right now it’s huge. Even if VIX stays flat you’re guaranteed to lose money daily on HVU due to contango – that’s why it’s not good long-term investment. For me right now it’s more like a “lottery ticket” – I’m counting for some event (Greece default?) to shake the markets. Unfortunately (for me) all the news is already priced in the markets and I’m loosing big time on HVU… On the brighter side, I’m long silver and doing quite well on it (HZU). My other longs aren’t doing that well – mostly junior companies that got hit last fall.
January 19th, 2012 at 11:35 am
Hi Tawny: I am also on the side with both of you on HVU. Profit gone and in negative territory. Thinking as well whether I should exit, markets feel like 2009 after the bottom was put in, dips being bought. I don’t think Greece will default on debt as this may cause turbulence in the markets and Governments around the world worked hard at avoiding these kinds of situation and will do whatever it takes to avoid the default. Just my opinion.
January 19th, 2012 at 11:35 am
TAWNEY #34 – LOL – Yes, I noted my query about a day trade last night went unanswered, so those that are in the know are not us
I do try not to look back; f’r instance – I didn’t even reply to Tony who posted to me that Visa was at 105 when I had sold it 2 days earlier at 102.38 LOL – never look back.
Finding something that is just starting a trend upward is not easy, and should be done the night before, when I am dead tired and bleary-eyed *sigh*
January 19th, 2012 at 11:35 am
Tawny
look at anything thats in the clouds crm 6% nflx 5%,
banks gs, ms have popped on misses, this means this market is in the buy anything mode it will make you money.
HVU is a volatility index so you can not deal this one as you would an suncor if it pops above the 4MA short to it if it opens below the 4 you buy it.
January 19th, 2012 at 11:38 am
One last note
don’t forget jobless estimate 387K and was 350K this is good news so it must be considered into the equation,
January 19th, 2012 at 11:38 am
Tony: another “Too Late”????? Likely coming down to mama today or more likely tomorrow? ……and then?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AMZN&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p35547718664
January 19th, 2012 at 11:40 am
Slava,
I agree totally with your post from #28 yesterday:
“It’s amazing how markets don’t care about this:
(01-17) 22:17 PST BEIJING, China (AP) –
The World Bank warned Wednesday of a possible slump in global economic growth and urged developing countries to prepare for shocks that could be more severe than the 2008 crisis.
The bank cut its growth forecast for developing countries this year to 5.4 percent from 6.2 percent and for developed countries to 1.4 percent from 2.7 percent. For the 17 countries that use the euro currency, it forecast a contraction, cutting their growth outlook to -0.3 percent from 1.8 percent.
Global growth could be hurt by a recession in Europe and a slowdown in India, Brazil and other developing countries, the Washington-based bank said. It said conditions might worsen if more European countries are unable to raise money in financial markets.
“The global economy is entering into a new phase of uncertainty and danger,” said the bank’s chief economist, Justin Yifu Lin. “The risks of a global freezing up of capital markets as well as a global crisis similar to what happened in September 2008 are real.”
Down on HOD.
The market is really saying:
“Frankly my dear, I don’t give a damn”.
January 19th, 2012 at 11:42 am
Slava,
lulu look at her its waiting patiently for the 9 to catch up with the 4MA, this could be the turning point, macd and w%r have already turned south so its just a matter of patience. keep a stop loss on
January 19th, 2012 at 11:46 am
Kay
Re HVU.To . I told you that if I were you I would get out. Sorry. When I set up trades if agaist me. I will be out right way.
January 19th, 2012 at 11:46 am
Hi Eve,
Thank you very for your insights re: PPLT and IWM (I think they are in their seasonal trading)
I would like to understand the charts for the consumer staples, posted today by D. Vialoux for educational purposes. D. Vialoux wrote:
“Consumer Staples:
Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels and are trending down.”
I am looking at STO @ 36.16, RSI @ 58.18, and MACD of the consumer staples and I don’t understand why the ETF is overbought and trending down.
Thank you and happy trading
January 19th, 2012 at 11:51 am
Hi Tony,
Re: Post 36
Could please give the link for the workshop in Toronto.
Happy Trading, Ania
January 19th, 2012 at 11:52 am
Ana, I would short Oil. if it can’t break 103.80
January 19th, 2012 at 11:59 am
Cj
what about V are you holding on to it? or did you sell this morning at the open.
Amzn
W%R the lows are increasing and currently above 50, MACD positive nothing to shy away about.
chart 9/18 papa bull so it will rise, now 200MA was a support for august, and oct but failed in nov. I will come back to it after I speak about options
Jan 200 calls are 1600 in volume and open interest 13000, and buying
Jan 205 calls are 223 in vol and open interest 6000 and biuing
Jan 210 calls are 4 in vol open int 6000 and selling .
Feb they are buying everything up to the 220 options.
SO now the 200 MA is currently at 202 so I think you could get to it buy tomorrow,
and sell off probably to the 50MA at 190weeklies
then feb you should see 215 to 220 area at 220 open interest falls by half on the option open interest.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Lin: Wondering if you can comment on the markets for next, do you see much more upside, if so I will get out of HVU. I got out and stupidly bought back in and wiped my profit and now in the negative. Thanks.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Hi Ania
here is the link for the workshop.
m-x.ca/evenements/optionsdayTor12_en?r=MXW
January 19th, 2012 at 12:08 pm
can someone tell me why i must watch the tickers at the bottom of the tv?
I had to take a peek at ipgp from when the it turned positive on the 4/9/18 it jumped from 35 to 56 ans this is in less than a month.
btw hvu has to be bought only when it has a 4/9 cross and if it goes 9/18 well you can make big money.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:09 pm
CJ re #42
NTR
I am feeling rather defeated and confused right now.. and dead tired and bleary eyed and fed up with this whole trading thing! My husband says I need a vacation – and – I am supposed to be retired! I would say LOL, but it’s really not so funny.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Lin,
I am already in HOD, (too soon) it is my own fault because I am not listening to my own rules. Maybe my brain has been frozen, here in the Edmonton area.
What is happening with oil, as it trades up every, single night in the futures and then trades down during the day. It continues to inch higher just like the S&P.
Thank you for your input.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:11 pm
Hi, Kay
I remember in the mail, I told you get out these bear.
Re, market. DIA’s GOLD Cross happened few days ago. SPY is on C wave possible 130to 134. If 134 happened, than other gold cross going to happened???? If can’t reach 134 or so, it may pull back 127 on spy would be first support. SO, so far , I am more BULLISH than Bearish until trend change. My style for trading, I don’t pick at bottom and don’t sell to peak.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Anna, TO re #40
Cooincidentally, my long besides my entry into SSO this morning has been HZU, but been trading it and not enough shares… think I will buy more and hold for a swing trade. Also holding SXC which is struggling for a bigger breakout.
This is so frustrating. REcent reading has warned that the markets are getting too bullish now and “there will be blood.” WOW … that’s my verbage not what I read.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:23 pm
#59
Regardless, we’re in for some interesting times!
Tawny, I agree with you regarding the market sentiment, but as Keynes said “Markets can remain irrational a lot longer than you and I can remain solvent.” Holding on to some of my bears for now – knowing my (bad) luck would sell out at the bottom just before the markets corrected!
January 19th, 2012 at 12:27 pm
Ana
My pleasure. oil is formimg inverser Head-shoulder pattern there. if it break 10380, next may be 107. But it is underperforming the market so far.
It is -29 today here. But this weekend is going to warm.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:29 pm
tony re #43
Are you in CRM and Nflx? I just checked out some cloud stocks – here is another wonderful hindsight:
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/summary/?q=SFSF-N
January 19th, 2012 at 12:33 pm
tawny
sfsf??? from the looks of the chart it seems as they have been bought out.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:34 pm
Tony #52 – You really must take time to read these postings Tony
I sold Visa 2 days ago and posted the fact, and I wrote the same today to Tawney – no looking back!
Thanks for the option info on AMZN I’m in!
January 19th, 2012 at 12:37 pm
CJ
I read every posts but i tend to forget with all the analysis I do.
I taught you were going to keep it after you asked me were I saw V going that is why I asked again.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Anna/Kay
Well S&P going south, HVU north… do we take this opportunity to reduce risk on HVU or hold?
January 19th, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Slava,
didnt I tell you to short fm at 25 its already 95 cents down.
See how options work great add it to your TA list using and you will make muyo mula.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Lin:
I usually enter trades too early or sell too early and thats where I make losses. So my logic is to hold HVU and hopefully it will turn around except: 1) these horizons products are brutal if you are on the wrong side and 2) if the SnP goes to 1340-1400. So I have to make a huge decision today…..Most stocks I am looking at are O/B and I am afraid I may buy at the top.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:43 pm
tawny
what time frame are you looking at.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:46 pm
tony #69
Whatever time it takes to make money and also to not lose money…. lousy answer, but that is how I feel.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:48 pm
sorry tawny
i meant hvu i dont see it turning neithr the snp
January 19th, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Re #64 – and of course as soon as I’m in it starts dropping
January 19th, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Kay,
That feeling many people has it. May stay sideline watch couple days.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:53 pm
cj
i know you only use daily charts but don’t worry to much or else i’ll get gray hair…oh i do have some
January 19th, 2012 at 12:55 pm
tony
the hvu got to 13.35 and the sso was down also…. changing again now.
January 19th, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Tawn: Price HVU.to = 13.32, broke S1 at 13.53 next 7.66. Well if its goes to S2, I don’t think I want to be there. I can hold for another $1-$2 down. Once I get these two bears out of my A/C won’t buy so early and probably would start focusing on stocks instead. Horizon probably making huge $ with these products on my account.
Eve/Tony/Lin:
Hold or not to hold until HVU turns around. Your comments please.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:00 pm
cj
190 stock needs to move by 10 to represent 1$ move on a 19$ stock so i wouldnt be worried here.
sorry if Wasnt clear enough about the selloff to 190 Im out swith a sinus congestion and the brain is simply writng witout thinking.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Eve, Tony – what do you see for COG now? I suppose to buy here is like catching a falling knife? I wish I was shorting this stock instead of others..
January 19th, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Tony #74 – I have plenty of Grey hair LOL – more today – my UK daughter (on holiday here) has just received notice her company back home is going under and shutting down – all will be made redundant. She has been there 10 years. A few tears around here.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Tony, I did short FM today and made around $360, your advice was spot on! That damn CP is holding up so well..
January 19th, 2012 at 1:05 pm
man i think my brain his fried out,
Slava
i tought you ere talkin bout cmg and i was thinking that ou only like things hat go down not good for the boyfriend.
cog i think i said it would move to 62.5
January 19th, 2012 at 1:06 pm
ask cj she mus remeber
January 19th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
god slava didnt i tell u to drop it against cp
your like a dog with a bone in its mouth no meat but contiues to chew
January 19th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Tawny: If I sell I will only sell 50%, because its always difficult for me to time it rightly and buy at the bottom. Are you exiting. I will post if I do, I was also reading those negative articles as well, however, those articles did mention it was too soon to become bears, so its my fault.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Ana
I draw this chart fot you refence.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p09461783864&a=254343456
January 19th, 2012 at 1:17 pm
ok kay, cj
i just took a peak at the indices
and good news they all decided to make a run for it compared to the 4MA thses ususally tag alon,
so i should warn you to stay in hvu.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:18 pm
Kay
SPX – 1315 is top of Keltner which is where it is trading now… so if it closes well above that… I will sell some HVU also. Like you I would only sell half – I usually do that in such a position – I call it hedging my bets. Or, I will be half right and half wrong : LOL
Agreed… we are in too soon…. but sometimes the downside comes fast and furious!
January 19th, 2012 at 1:20 pm
Slava #78 – been a rollercoaster ride – it almost gets to my breakeven point, and I think after all this time you have to make something on this, and then it turns around and does a nose-dive
I wouldn’t short for any length of time though – this one is too much of an individual – Eve said she doesn’t even know it anymore!
January 19th, 2012 at 1:22 pm
OK Slava,
Maybe you can experiment with shorting some of the LOSERS
from the finviz screeners for new lows and most losers lists.
For me, a loser is a stock in a one- to three- month downtrend.
It tries to rally again & again, but it can’t, because it’s
just mainly rubbish or fraud or incompetence. The persistent
downtrend tells you that. Insiders & others just sell their
worthless paper in droves week after week.
This is a never-ending process, because these small stocks
can move independently of the major markets, or in synch with them,
up or down, but in a major sell-off they also tend to get wacked pretty
hard & this is why they offer an efective hedge. Last november-december
I posted some of the items in my little-hedge-that-grew.
Have a look at what spy, dia, qqq did over this period, verses what
these losers did.
http://www.easystock.com/tkchart/tkchart.asp?stkname=tse_rim,tse_tmm,TSE_HNU,SQNS,ALSK,SQNM,SQNS,GNOM,XNPT,PWER,SPWR,FORM&prt=0&sz=1
Six of these are still effecctive, and 6 have had to be replaced.
(The crown jewels I was protecting were / are ALA PPL ENB REF-UN
IPL-UN ARX TET IBM CXO)
This is not the only way to hedge. The inverse etf’s (eg, DOG, SPXU) could work
GREAT also, but as you have found out over the past 2 years, the single etf’s are somewhat tame, and the leveraged ones can really mess up your account, as timing vs their bull counterparts is paramount. PLUS their daily rebalancing just kills you, something you do not have to worry about with the “little losers” that can give
big gains.
As I said before, we all have our own way of doing things – if the method behind it has a history of working out more often than not, then it WILL also work for you, but not necessarily every single time.
SPY puts are another way, these are cheap and liquid. Yes I do
throw in a couple here and there, but it is not my preferred option.
This has turned out to be another long post, (sorry), but there is really
nothing new here. You already know all of this, You even talked
about limiting your position sizes a couple days ago.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:28 pm
Tony:
“so i should warn you to stay in hvu”
Tony, just clarifying the above statement. Is there a typo, ‘warn’ I think of not good, do mean hold ‘HVU’, sounds silly but can’t think too much and have to leave shortly, finally we are experiencing winter.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:36 pm
tony, nothing can ruin my mood when I’m with my hot Russian.. I had about two hours of sleep last night but it was well worth it
We have this incredible connection – it’s out of this world.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:38 pm
So I picked up COG at $63.68 for a trade, 500 shares (on margin). Will probably dump now at $64, it can’t seem to go higher.. or perhaps a stop loss just under $64.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:38 pm
sorry kay
sinus congested don t think to clarly.
orv
mean hold hvu .the indices arent holding 4ma this is wat to look for wen buying hvu,
January 19th, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Rol, thank you again for taking the time to write your post #89. I really appreciated the guidance. I printed it and will take a look at the website mentioned later.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:40 pm
It there a chance that natural gas will have a technical rally? Everyone is bear on NG, at some point I think we might have a brief but rapid short-covering rally. Thoughts?
January 19th, 2012 at 1:41 pm
slav
thats good you talked til the we hours of the moning.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:41 pm
tck.b is up quite a bit again.. hmm.. I bought teck around $44 last summer and still sitting on it. Probably should put a stop loss at some point.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:43 pm
tony, absolutely! Talking is very important..
January 19th, 2012 at 1:43 pm
tck 44 -45 top
January 19th, 2012 at 1:47 pm
Slava
Re #95
Just listening to Levine on BNN – he is one that I really respect opinion. Saying it is too late to short ng. IMO it might go up but I wouldn’t hold my breath yet… he says when the nat. gas producers shut and produce less, eventually it will go up. I would not take such a risk as to leap in and buy on speculation that it might go up! I am trying to find a trend in something – a newish trend that is.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:48 pm
#58
sorry for error, gold cross has crossed.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:49 pm
Lin,
Happy New Year!
Gong Hei Fat Choi! (Please correct if this looks ridiculous!)
Thank you for the chart Lin! This is why I thought that $WTIC would have to go down to at least the $97.00 before it takes off for the seasonal trend. Then it will go up, to hammer the last nail in the coffin for the economy. I am thinking that the cost of fuel has also taken away the purchasing of fertilizers this year for the farmers, along with the break down of the cartel for the industry.
Ana
January 19th, 2012 at 1:49 pm
Kay
I felt the exact same thing about tony’s post. LOL
Tony – thanks for the clarification.
I get severe sinus headaches and I know how difficult it is to concentrate when having sinus problems. Thank you for helping everyone out in spite of it!
January 19th, 2012 at 1:52 pm
Slava: You are fogging up one of my screens – I am trying to trade here.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:55 pm
Ana: Oil is being held up by the Iran situation. It is the wild card. If the tension increases, we could see Oil blow past resistance. As long as it exists, I believe Oil will stay around $100.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Tawny: Did you see Levine’s past picks? That is what you get for buy and hold.
January 19th, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Ray-Kitchener
#104 – well, now I know what it takes, to get you to show up here! LOL
Slava sure is providing a lot of heat on the blog.
Slava
So happy for you the relationship is good – again, ENJOY!
January 19th, 2012 at 2:00 pm
Ray-Kitchener Re #106
No I didn’t see… and I don’t buy picks from these guys – anymore that is!
Still I like Levine’s low key approach.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Slava,
Good one, Ray-Kitchener.
Keep it up, (bad pun) you might melt some snow in Alberta!
This post will probably be deleted, but I could not resist the opportunity!
Nice to hear that you have found happiness.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:02 pm
Tony
HVU – guess it doesn’t mean much, but HVU on the 5 min. chart 4 crossed 9 ma ??
January 19th, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Ray-Kitchener,
Do you not think that this situation is manufactured, (oil at $100.00) by the countries that rely on oil for their income for their nation?
I guess it does not matter what the situation is, it is what it is.
Ana
January 19th, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Ana: You gotta have some fun. As Tawny said on a previous post, it’s like watching paint dry some times. I prefer the 600 point swings versus the 60. Nevertheless, the Oil trade continues to work.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:07 pm
NTR
Ray, Tawny, sorry – I know I’m being a bit inappropriate.. blushing now. I just never experienced anything quite like this even though I dated a lot in the past. He said the same thing. I think I’m going to marry this guy. I have had a permanent smile on my face all morning long even though kinross and hgu are going down while cp is going up. I feel like I don’t care about money as much as I used to, etc. – my priorities are shifting, I feel so alive, all my senses are heightened. Had I married my ex I would have never experienced this type of a connection.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Is it completely crazy to roll the dice again on HNU at $4.22.. for a small amount? overnight?
January 19th, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Something is definetely happening with tye.v.. volume is way way up. I think it’s going higher.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:12 pm
HGU has been dropping like a rock. I bought a bit of hgd yesterday but not enough..
Thoughts on gold stocks?
January 19th, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Slava
#113 – no need to apologize, personally I am enjoying your excitement vicariously!
I don’t think there is anything on the board in need of deleting.
#114 – if you do this at least YOU KNOW YOU ARE GAMBLING, again!
January 19th, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Slava,
I think “the boys” are taking $NatGas to 2.00.
Wait, for it to bottom, at least. Draw some support lines, there are none! Last support at 2.409.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:14 pm
I got my answer.. hnu at $4.16 now. Hmm.. rebound for ng is in the cards, but when? It’s freezing cold on the West coast, isn’t it cold on the East coast as well? We should see a decent drawdown in the next week or two.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Ana: Absolutely. The whole market is rigged. Oil at $100, means big $ for the Middle East to pay for all their ambitions. The higher the better. Demand apparently is falling, yet prices continue to be above $100. Look at the trade today. It will most likely close flat or slightly up based upon this. The low today was $100.25. As it approached $100, it bounced as the buyers came back in. I traded both SCO & UCO thus far, just buying the valleys and selling for 20 cent profits. I am presently in UCO and will keep some in my L/T account as a bet on the Iranian play.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Tony, Eve, Lin & Everyone,
According to seasonality, the market will consolidate from NOW until next friday.
It seems we are seeing an extended rally. Do you see anything that this market will continue to move higher into February without consolidation?
January 19th, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Slava,
I gave my opion on gold earlier.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Slava: In my experience Gold stocks normally lead Gold down. Barrick & Goldcorp are both down today. No guarantee, however we may see a further decline. I would sit on your HGD and ride it for awhile. At least you have it as a hedge against your bull position.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:20 pm
#114
Slava, I agree with Ana. Don’t try to pick the bottom here! If you want to gamble with nat gas you’re much better off day trading HND – check out the charts – cash to be made if you’re nimble, but it’s very stressful. You’re much better off picking a safer and more predictable stock – just my 2c.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Tony,
I am trying to understand the options method you have been talk about recently. Please let me know if I understand it correctly.
For POT.TO:
$43.3 – 9472 open interest, 415 vol.
$44 – 2033 open interest, 59 vol.
$45 – 15671 open interest, 3047 vol.
$46 – 2141 open interest, 83 vol
$46.7 – 18099 open interest, 1053 vol.
$47 – 143 open interest, 10 vol.
So since options expire on the third friday of every month (i.e. tomorrow), I should see the price end up between $45 and $46.70?
I don’t really understand options that well so I could be completely off. Thanks for your help.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Ray-Kitchener,
I am staying in HOD, for now. I really think this has to go lower to make the big push to the upside for the seasonal trade. Just me, though .
Tawny,
I was not saying that Slava’s post would be deleted, I was saying that “my” post would be deleted! I really am happy for her, as well, I love the distraction from the painful trades that are happening.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:45 pm
$NatGas
Information on $Nat Gas
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46032083
Also I use this site as a supplement for futures, as I like to see the Futures Fair Value:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937/
Ana
January 19th, 2012 at 2:46 pm
Ana
Totally, totally agree! A very nice distraction!
I am also playing with my new Play book… not easy to learn this when I am so tired.
Just got a new Canadian Gardening magazine in the mail – so nice to see pics of flowers!
January 19th, 2012 at 2:48 pm
Jimmy are you looking at the options thru m-x or thru your broker.
cause the values you give me 46.7 I don’t see it. the volume and neither the open interest.
but if you see positive net on all of these I would have to say 46 area is where I would look for an exit or trailing stop if there is no interest in future months. because between 45 to 46 there is a step drop in volume and interest.
now I found where you are looking at for pot, next time please give me your source, cause having pot.to in my sinus congested mind told me to look at the M-z
on the cboe, ok so lets restart Jan everything on the calls is in the red so basically they are selling the calls, so this means it probably saw the most upside for this month. and will head lower probably to 44-45
now lets look at febuary. they are buying the puts up to 42.5 so its probably going to this level especially its got the most open interest for the month.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Wow..hgu back down to December 30th level. From $13.40 to $11.69 in exactly one week!
January 19th, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Tony, that is a great theory, thanks so much!
January 19th, 2012 at 2:52 pm
Tony #52 “SO now the 200 MA is currently at 202 so I think you could get to it buy tomorrow, and sell off probably to the 50MA at 190weeklies”
Are you certain it isnt planning to do it the other way around? first drop down to the 50 then up toward the 200??? Where do the puts selling at 180 come into the scenario??
January 19th, 2012 at 2:54 pm
OK Tawny
sorry for the delay needed to eat and take a power nap
thx for the heads up on the 5min chart looked at it ond wait for 4 to cross above 50MA on the chart yesterday 18Ma was resistance from 1 til close.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:54 pm
Tony,
What are you doing with AVL.to…a trailing stop perhaps? It’s off today but the longer term looks good.
CS.to (similar to TCK/b) has also taken off today and is approaching resistance at 3.46. I think I mentioned this one before. I’m really hoping this one pulls back to provide another buying opportunity because the long term looks good.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CS.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p07856489520&a=250534321
January 19th, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Ana and Anna,thank you both. Better safe than sorry.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Eve, just like you mentioned a few weeks ago – gold stocks went up during the first two weeks of January and have been heading lower this week. So seasonality works.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:59 pm
slava,
that is exactly why i did not recommend hgu to martine,
where is martine by the way.
January 19th, 2012 at 2:59 pm
slava,
that is exactly why i did not recommend hgu to martine,
where is martine by the way.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:02 pm
tony
#133: HVU – the 4 is above the 50 ma… this is good, right? for me, I mean.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Ron/AB
So nice to see you! Wondering if you are finding the Uptrend has been working once again?
January 19th, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Man cant recall what peeps are talking about and i know i guided them thru this.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Rachel
probably tomorrow it will hit 660 at the highest.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Hi Tony,
I would like to get your TA on WS.TO.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WS.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p80778695718
Thanks
Jeanne
January 19th, 2012 at 3:12 pm
ron
I feel like this market wants to trade all the crazy energy stuff such as Rare Earth, Uranium and solar.
but don’t want to play with oil, nat gas or the coal stuf
January 19th, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Tony, would you get in the feb’s or jan call options?
January 19th, 2012 at 3:19 pm
ron cs update,
on daily chart, 150MA was resistance so it should be support, its at 3.04
60min chart 50MA is support and this is at 3.09 so this is where I would get in.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Tany
4 going above 50 is good
January 19th, 2012 at 3:35 pm
rachel now you are asking the wrong person I don’t trade options, there are to many strategies,
Im to confused on what i can do with it,
here is what i would do sell 650 jan calls buy 610 puts. but you must own it right.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Hi Tawny,
Yes The Uptrend has been much more useful now that there are actually some trends to follow:) I’m consulting The Uptrend these days along with my own TA.
I see that you have posted re. HVU.to. According to The Uptrend, you want to see price break above around 15.00 for the first sign of optimism and a confirmation will be triggered if it closes above 16.05. There is a pressure zone forming for HVU but there’s no buy signal yet.
Of course there may still be opportunities if you are day trading HVU instead. The price is currentlt near the S2 pivot and bottom of the Keltner. Also the price has gapped away from the 4ma, so maybe it can open at 14.00 tomorrow??
January 19th, 2012 at 3:40 pm
tony, COG at $62.50.. but looks like it wants to come down more. Still a falling knife? Looks extremely oversold now:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p22304502402
January 19th, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Tony COG now below 62.50 – time for a turnaround!
January 19th, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Jeanne
volume seems to be picking up slowly now can it break tru 1.63
oscillators are positive.
looks like a flag so if it breaks below 50MA don’t get in if above 150MA(1.63) get in.
best i can do
January 19th, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Ron/AB
Thanks for #149. I have started checking the Uptrend as well. i know HVU is not yet a buy and I jumped the gun because it can soar so quickly. There is a huge presure zone. When you say price is near S2 pivot – do you mean 2nd pivot? If not can you please post me your chart. I have pivots on, but do not understand S2? My chart – 5 min. shows the price right around the 50 ma; but it is the 5 min. chart.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
cj
about amzn,
190 is the weeklies so they don’t expire tomorrow but end of month.
so this is where it is headed. before it heads north to 220
January 19th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
CJ, I bought 300 COG a few minutes ago and will hold overnight.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:49 pm
With NG being so cheap in North America why aren’t we seeing more usage from different industries? Someone told me that in India all public buses use LNG for fuel.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:49 pm
cj slava,
cog 60 feb
best i can do.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:51 pm
slava
earlier saw cnbc say not cold enough, I have cold so i find cold. but canada is not part of the USA so we don’t count.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Tony,
Thanks for the update on CS. It just shot up further to 3.43 (7.5%). There is significant resistance here so maybe it will start to pull back now.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:53 pm
ok zz is good for me
now.
and im suppose to be resting go figure. will have to babysit alone tonight wife as a meeting.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:55 pm
tony, Washington state is freezing just like Vancouver.. but yes, it’s the East and MidWest of the USA which count the most. I suppose not cold enough there.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:57 pm
Hi Tony,
I am around, but I have been busy. I played around with HGU and HGD.TO last week and it worked out fine. HOwever,I entered HGU.TO three days ago and I was not successful at exiting the same day. I should have hedged over the past three days, but did not and hate myself for making such a mistake. Silly mistake! My price is $12.90. It currently trades at $11.90.
I was thinking about selling 50% and hedging the other half if the trend continues and try to recover my loss.
Sorry, I messed up. Any idea?
January 19th, 2012 at 3:57 pm
re, COG, I am very interesting to see IF it hit 55 ZONE.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:57 pm
tony, I remember when I shorted a lot of COG at $86 or smth like that and it kept moving up and I ended up closing my short position quickly… if only I had stayed with my short COG position!
January 19th, 2012 at 3:58 pm
Lin, wow.. you think all the way to $55? I suppose anything is possible. Do you think it’s way to risky to hold overnight? I bought 300 shares at $62.90.
January 19th, 2012 at 3:58 pm
ron
probably someone reading the post here read my cmnent made it push higher so that peeps buy it before it drops to my tgt b4 drops to its 5oma
January 19th, 2012 at 3:59 pm
Tony #154 AMZN Options:
puts (CBOE)
Open Interest 13372
Expiration Date 01/21/2012
you have not taught me about “Weeklies” I am truly confused
January 19th, 2012 at 3:59 pm
Tawny,
Here is a chart of HVU.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVU.TO&p=D&b=9&g=0&id=p73494839280
The centre pivot is labelled as P on stockcharts. The pivots above the centre pivot are labelled as R1, R2 … because they are resistance points. The pivots below the centre pivot are support points and are labelled S1, S2…
January 19th, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Slava #155 – All the best to both of us Slava – nice to see you aboard the upside (we hope!)
January 19th, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Thanks Tony, lets see what the earnings say
January 19th, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Young,
Markety has done gold crossed and overbought. Will see what happened next.
January 19th, 2012 at 4:03 pm
RACHEL
MAYBe stupid my call on goog buy put would have been a good bet
man what did larry do Laurence will be in the penalty box
January 19th, 2012 at 4:04 pm
Lin #163 – ooooooh my that’s not nice lin – Slava and I think you should jump in and help it go the other way!
January 19th, 2012 at 4:04 pm
OK my calls on hvu will be profitable
goog missed and ibm missed.
January 19th, 2012 at 4:05 pm
Today’s activities:
- sold half of my GTE
- bought/sold COG, bought again for overnight hold
- sold HEM
- shorted and covered FM
- bought and sold 4,000 hgu
- bought a little bit of hnu for overnight hold
- sold 1/3 of my tye.v in the am
January 19th, 2012 at 4:06 pm
this is the reason you want to sell your holdings before earnings so you don’t get killed.
January 19th, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Ana
Happy New Year!
Gong Hei Fat Choi to you too! Hope We make good move!
January 19th, 2012 at 4:11 pm
CJ, I am very sorry. I didn’t know Slava has jumped in.
But that is trend leading to!
January 19th, 2012 at 4:11 pm
Ron/AB
Thanks, I have saved your chart – so different than what I am ussing – me newbie to these charts, as you know.
What indicators do you make your decisions on? Are you using Pivots for that, or? BTW, HVU did get to well over $15. in the last few trading days…
January 19th, 2012 at 4:12 pm
CJ
if you look at AMZN they have to listings for JAN options. the 1st batch ends tomorrow second ends at the end of the month.
not all stocks have weeklies.
January 19th, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Hi Tony,
re#152. Thank you for your analysis for WS.to. I owned it right now and went thru 2 waives already and I am looking for the target price to get off.
Jeanne
January 19th, 2012 at 4:13 pm
cj
180 two listing not to listings sorry but think you get what am saying’
January 19th, 2012 at 4:15 pm
tony – re 174
WOW… where did you see news on Goog and ibm so fast?
Get some rest now, tony…. I am exhausted with this trading.
Holding HVU and some SSO as well as some HZU. So, tomorrow is another day!
January 19th, 2012 at 4:16 pm
jeanne,
think this one if it goes higher could be around 2$ cause every single MA are turning positive.
January 19th, 2012 at 4:16 pm
yeap, COG 57-55 CJ.
January 19th, 2012 at 4:18 pm
Lin,
Yes, if I was in Calgary I would gift your children $$$ in a red envelope and to celebrate as well, I will be wearing my red, warm, sweater for added good fortune.
Happy New Year of The Dragon! I was born in a Dragon Year, so this year is good fortune for me. (I might add, it is about time!)
Many good wishes for you and your family!
Ana
January 19th, 2012 at 4:20 pm
Wow! OUCH!!!!!
January 19th, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Re: equity analysts…
“Kinross Gold Corp : RBC cuts price target to $14 from $20″
So stupid. When it was at almost $18 they were upgrading to $20, now that it’s $10 they are downgrading. Just like when COG was at $82 it was being upgraded to $90+..
Conclusion – analysts’ ratings are totally useless.
January 19th, 2012 at 4:21 pm
tawny
cnbc, im home recoup
January 19th, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Google missed and is down 10% in the after-hours… probably tomorrow might be a good day to short very overpriced AMZN.
January 19th, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Lin, how are you able to determine $55/57 by looking at the chart? What parameters are indicating this? Thanks.
January 19th, 2012 at 4:29 pm
slava
recall cp, was downgraded by rbc the day after i said it ws eventually going higher.
the best downgrads and upgrades are the ones twhere thy change target by 2 $ when its like 7 dlars difference why give a rating just to spend time?
January 19th, 2012 at 4:29 pm
Hi Tony,
Re#184. Great. Thank for your help to confirm the target selling price.
Jeanne
January 19th, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Ana
Thank you so much for very thoughtful red envelope for my kids. Yes, red is lucky color for the people who born in the year of dragon.
Hopefully one day we can meet so we can disscuss trading.
Best wish to you and family!
January 19th, 2012 at 4:31 pm
slava
goog is right on the 100ma right on nov support
January 19th, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Slava
I will get back to you later today! don’t worry!
January 19th, 2012 at 4:39 pm
btw,
all indices traded higher than 4MA, so watchout longs hvu is coming to bite u.
January 19th, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Hi Lin,
When you say “DIA’s GOLD Cross happened few days ago. SPY is on C wave possible 130to 134. If 134 happened, than other gold cross going to happened????” under 58 and “gold cross has crossed”, could you explain? It is really not clear to me what your analysis is and how you get to that conclusion. Maybe, you could post a chart too which would be very useful. Very appreciated!
January 19th, 2012 at 5:40 pm
Eve, Lin, tony – what do you think of the crazy stock IOC? Thanks.
January 19th, 2012 at 6:32 pm
Slava
If Tony is right with his #197, why not watch to see futures early tomorrow and if markets are heading south, jump on with SPXU, HVU, HXD or some other bear?
January 19th, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Tawny, good point. I should swtich from shorting individual stocks (I’m obviously not that great at picking them) to just buying inverse etfs, it’s much less risky.
January 19th, 2012 at 7:01 pm
Tawny,
On the daily, weekly and monthly charts I use the 4/9/18/50/200 ma’s and also the Keltner (3.0) and Pivots (fib) are overlayed. In term of indicators I use mainly the RSI (21), MACD histogram, and CCI (20).
On the intraday charts (60 min, 10 min, and 5 min charts) I use the 2/4/9/18 ma’s and pivots. The indicators I use include the RSI (4) along with MACD histogram and CCI (20).
Of course I also consider volume and some charts use elder bars and others use candlesticks as I like to look at both.
Lately I’ve been playing around with Ichimuku cloud charts as well but this is a new thing for me.
January 19th, 2012 at 7:04 pm
Hi Kam, great to hear from you. It sounds like you are having a wonderful time in India! It was a very smart move on your behalf to sell HGU at $13.25. I sold 5,ooo of mine above $13, still holding 4,000.. bought some hgd yesterday but not enough to offset the HGU losses. Have you noticed what happened to the “slow dog” Kinross? It’s down 25% this week.. you can imagine how I feel being stuck with my 3,200 shares. I’m also holding a bunch of losing short positions. So pretty bad all around. I placed a few successful trades today but will need to repeat today about 40 times to make up for all the recent paper losses. I’m sure you’ve also noticed HNU – from $8 to $4 in once month!
So please put that Iphone to work and keep in touch.
January 19th, 2012 at 7:20 pm
Hi, Martine
Sorry, for error. I was reading a chart which was print a few days ago when I was inputing and later on I found out other one .
Yes, $SPX has done the Glod CROSS. Please see the Blue circle. And there is break out, a big Head shoulder formed.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p51200557557&a=254382268
Currently, market is overbought. It may pull back. May not. Or sometimes.
January 19th, 2012 at 7:24 pm
Slava
COG. yes, I read from Chart. But I don’t trade this stock until your guys talked about it.
Eve know better , she has followed it.
I will get back IOC for you.
January 19th, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Some people are shorting HND.TO (NatGas Bear Plus)
Wouldn’t one accomplish the same thing buying HNU.TO (NatGas Bull Plus)?
Thanks
January 19th, 2012 at 7:44 pm
Hi Lin,
Oh I see! You were referring to the golden cross (MA50/MA200) for the Dow and, now, the $spx. Many thanks for the chart. That`s now crystal clear.
I certainly would like the market to pull back right now. It should after such a run since mid-December but, even if overbought, it could always trade sideways. Next week, we will see. Thanks again!
January 19th, 2012 at 8:12 pm
Slava
re #200: If you use the leveraged ETFs there is still risk, but not of one stock getting hammered. I really prefer to wait until they get the buy signal… you can watch Uptrend daily – new signals are often mentioned… also best to ease in to a position and add to it, if you are right about the trend or get out if your not…
Icould take a lesson here from my own words.
January 19th, 2012 at 9:21 pm
Hi Slava,
I’ve taken a break from the markets, mostly enforced because I haven’t been well. Catching up on posts and I don’t see any reference to you shorting LLL. From its chart, I would have thought you’d be all over this. I don’t short, but this looks like a natural now. Am I missing something? Just trying to learn.
Maria
January 19th, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Slava; Thought you maybe interested in this. Analyst discusses two stocks you own. Osisko being a top pick.
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip603788
One thing I will say about this board, is that there is too much emphasis on charts. Company fundamentals are rarely if ever discussed. Company fundamentals have alot to do on the performance of a stock. I am not talking about natural gas price, but specific company initiatives to improve or reduce company profitability (returns to the shareholder.
January 19th, 2012 at 9:52 pm
Tony/Slava #190 – Tony please read Slava’s comment about shorting AMZN and talk her out of it?
I now have as much red ink on this one as I have on COG and only held it half a day!
January 19th, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Ken
would love to trade on the funnies, but if you miss by a penny you get clobbered, if you exceed by a penny they kill you.
so how in hell can you trade using funnies?
January 19th, 2012 at 11:25 pm
Slava
OIC Invesco Municipal Income Opport (OIC)-NYSE, It is on very nice up trend. If you have it. Keep it, and stop loss just 7.90. I hope you aren’t going to short it.
January 19th, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Hi,Martine
My pleasure! Good trades!
January 19th, 2012 at 11:31 pm
AMZN is just start up trend, Slava!
January 19th, 2012 at 11:48 pm
lin
slava asked about ioc interoil and not oic
January 19th, 2012 at 11:49 pm
Maria,
Slava has to cover her short on lulu tomorrow.
January 20th, 2012 at 12:01 am
Tony
Thanks,:), I see a lot of stocks are forming Head-shoulder. Very interesting.
January 20th, 2012 at 12:09 am
Eve
We haven’t seen you all day
I sure hope you are okay?
January 20th, 2012 at 12:15 am
Maria, I did short 600 lulu shares, unfortunately right before the annoucement of increased guidance so my timing was off
So I’m down a lot on this one right now. To make matters worse, BMO Investorline no longer has lulu shares in inventory and is forcing me to cover my short position by tomorrow. Now, if I were confident that the price will pull back more I’d be trying to short the same 600 shares in my Itrade account.
Tony, Lin – does lulu look like a decent short at this point? RSI, CCI 20, Full stoch. are pointing down. Also, volume has dried up and it’s been going down on the days when market are up.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LLL.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p66719709209
January 20th, 2012 at 12:15 am
tony, re 217 – you have excellent memory!
January 20th, 2012 at 12:19 am
Lin, re AMZN – Google missed and is down -9% in the afterhours, this makes me think that other internet stocks, including overpriced AMZN with its P/E of 102 will head down again. At the same time, I pay a lot of attention to what you say so it sounds like I should stay away from AMZN.
January 20th, 2012 at 12:21 am
Michael, looks like we sold MSFT too early. Oh well..
January 20th, 2012 at 12:28 am
AMZN resistance is at 202. But this stock declined since Oct high. I wouldn’t short it. good nite, girl. I am worried about you. Hopefully I don’t get heart attack..:)
January 20th, 2012 at 12:29 am
Ken/AB, thank you very much for remembering I own Osisko
You know, I do pay attention to the fundamentals and I’m finding that especially lately they don’t mean a thing. Most of the trading is based on TA. Does AMZN warrant to be priced where it is with P/E of 102? No, it has razor thin profit margins, growing competition from google and such, its results constantly disappoint yet it is where it is. Does CMG deserve to be priced at $358? No. But this is where they are.
January 20th, 2012 at 12:30 am
Slava, take some course about option use less money for trade. NEVER put so much money like 160K for short term trade.
January 20th, 2012 at 12:30 am
Lin, thank you
I’m trying not to have a heart attack myself. If the pressure is too much I’ll just go 100% cash, this is what I decided tonight. Have a great night sleep.