ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Monday January 23rd
U.S. equity index futures are mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 1 point in pre-opening trade. Traders are waiting for news on negotiations on sovereign debt between the Greek government and private holders of Greek debt.
Research in Motion opened higher but faded after announcing a senior management change. Thorsten Heins becomes Chief Executive Officer and Barbara Stymiest becomes Chairman. In addition, Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock from Sell to Hold. Target was raised from $10 to $18. The stock slipped $0.15 to $16.85 U.S.
Halliburton eased $0.49 to $35.71 after reporting fourth quarter operating earnings slightly less than expectations.
Procter & Gamble is expected to open lower after Stiffel Nicolaus downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold.
ConocoPhillips eased $0.64 to $70.56 after UBS downgraded the stock from Neutral to Sell. Target was reduced from $68 to $60.
Amgen eased $0.57 to $69.00 after JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral. Target price was reduced from $75 to $70.
Altera slipped $0.09 to $40.26 after ThinkEquity downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. Target is $40.
PanAmerican Silver has agreed to buy Minefinders for cash and stock at $15.60 Cdn. per share. Value of the offer is $1.5 billion Cdn.
Technical Watch
Research in Motion Ltd. (NASDAQ:RIMM;TSE:RIM) – $16.85 slipped 0.8% despite news that Thorston Heins was selected at Chief Executive Officer and Barbara Stymiest was selected as Chairman. The stock has a negative, but improving technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades below its 200 day moving average. However, the stock recently moved above its 50 day moving average at $16.27 U.S. and strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index turned positive in mid-December. Short term momentum indicators currently are slightly overbought. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness to its 50 day moving average at $16.27.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/clip_image001110.png "clip_image001[1]")
Halliburton Co. (NYSE:HAL) – $35.71 slipped 1.4% after reporting slightly less than expected fourth quarter operating earnings. The stock has a negative, but improving technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades below its 200 day moving average. However, the stock recently moved above its 50 day moving average, strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive in mid-December, seasonal influences have just turned positive and short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Preferred strategy is to accumulate on weakness closer to its 50 day moving average at $34.72.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/clip_image002110.png "clip_image002[1]")
Halliburton Company (NYSE:HAL) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image003[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image197.png "clip_image003[1]")
Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG) – $66.23 is expected to open lower after Stiffel Nicolaus downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. The stock has a positive technical profile with a short term deteriorating outlook. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. However, strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-December and seasonal influences are negative until the first week in March. Short term momentum indicators are slightly overbought. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock closer to its 200 day moving average at $63.01.
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/clip_image004111.png "clip_image004[1]")
The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image005[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image326.png "clip_image005[1]")
Mark Leibovit’s Daily Gold Comment
More information on Mark’s services is available at
http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp
GOLD – ACTION ALERT – BUY
Silver was the big story today and, as you know, I’ve been targeting silver first to the 33-35 range. We traded at 32.34 today in the Spot market. Smart players are now demanding delivery of physical silver and enough of this goes on, there is a decent chance the silver ‘cartel’ could be broken. If everyone in North America only bought and demanded delivery of only one ounce of Silver (roughly 400 million people) that would equate to greater than 50% of the total annual silver production in the world. Imagine if they bought a few ounces. Just think of it! We could shut down the CME/COMEX and expose their fraud! Gold, however, could not take out yesterday’s 1671.40 high. Copper was also a big standout touching 3.8340 – up eight days in a row before profit taking took price down to 3.745 into the close. Recall, we traded at 2.9940 on October 3. You’ve got to be long or getting long these markets. It’s too early to tell if these are only be temporary, but who wants to miss them?
The Bottom Line
Downside short term risk in equity markets currently exceeds short term upside potential. More sectors are starting to roll over from overbought levels. Fourth quarter earnings reports, economic news and possible macro events point to the high probability of at least a shallow, short term correction. Short term weakness will provide an opportunity to enter into seasonal plays that traditionally outperform during the spring season.
Economic New This Week
Canadian November Retail Sales to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Tuesday is expected to increase 0.2% versus a gain of 1.0% in October.
State of the Union Address in front of Congress is made at 8:00 PM on Tuesday.
The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee releases its Fed Fund Rate decision at 12:30 PM EST on Wednesday. Rate is expected to remain unchanged at 0-0.25%.
Weekly Initial Jobless Claims to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Thursday is expected to increase to 375,000 from 352,000 last week.
December Durable Goods Orders to be released at 8:30 AM on Thursday are expected to slip to an increase of 2.0% from a gain of 3.7% in November. Excluding Transportation, Orders are expected to increase 0.7% versus a gain of 0.3% in November.
December New Home Sales to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase to 322,000 from 315,000 in November.
December Leading Economic Indicators to be released at 10:00 AM EST on Thursday are expected to increase 0.7% versus a gain of 0.5% in November.
Fourth Quarter U.S. GDP estimate to be released at 8:30 AM EST on Friday is expected to show growth at a 3.1% annual rate versus a gain of 1.8% in the third quarter.
The January Michigan Sentiment Index to be released at 9:55 AM EST on Friday is expected to increase to 74.2 from 74.0 in December.
Earnings Reports This Week
![clip_image002[5]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/clip_image00251.png "clip_image002[5]")
Equity Trends
The S&P 500 Index gained 26.29 points (2.04%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. The Index remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased from 77.40% to 86.20% last week. Percent above 80% is substantial overbought and a frequent predictor of a significant correction on a move below the 80% level.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week from 60.00% to 69.60%. Percent is intermediate overbought.
The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. the Up/Down ratio) increased last week from 2.89 to (331/109=) 3.04. Fifty two S&P 500 stocks broke resistance and nine broke support.
Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 Index stocks increased last week from 73.00% to 78.40% and remained above its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
The Up/Down ratio for TSX Composite stocks increased last week from 0.95 to ( 120/98=) 1.22. Twenty eight TSX stocks broke resistance and seven stocks broke support.
Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks increased last week from 51.57% to 55.12% and remained above its 15 day moving average. The Index is intermediate overbought.
The TSX Composite Index added 166.04 points (1.36%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at 11,420.78 and resistance is at 12,542.58. The Index trades above its 50 day moving average, but below its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show significant signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week from 51.57% to57.48%. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
Percent of TSX stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week from 36.22% to 43.31%.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 298.42 points (2.40%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at 11,231.56 and Resistance is at 12,753.89. Most of the gain on Friday (56 of the 97 points) came from one stock, IBM. The Average trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show significant signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative despite strength on Friday.
Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average stocks increased last week from 83.33% to 86.67% and remained above its 15 day moving average. The Index is intermediate overbought and showing early signs of peaking.
Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks increased last week to 55.12% and remained above its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
The NASDAQ Composite Index added 266.34 points (3.13%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from neutral to up after a break above resistance at 2,753.37. Support is at 2,441.48. The Index trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has turned positive.
The Russell 2000 Index gained 20.42 points (2.67%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at 666.16. The Index trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Seasonal influences are positive.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average added another 104.83 points (2.03%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at 4,531.79. The Average trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. The Average is about to complete a “Golden Cross”. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show significant signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index added 47.50 points (1.12%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at 4,047.40 and resistance is at 4,472.20. The Index trades above its 50 day moving average, but below its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
The Nikkei Average gained 266.34 points (3.13%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from down to up after the Average broke resistance at 8,729.81. Support is at 8,272.26. The Average moved above its 50 day moving average, but remains below its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
The Shanghai Composite Index gained 74.54 points (3.32%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is forming at 2,132.63. The Index moved above its 50 day moving average on Friday and remains below its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative, but is showing early signs of change. Seasonal influences recently turned positive.
The London FT Index added 91.91 points (1.63%), the Frankfurt DAX Index jumped 261.31 points (4.25%) and the Paris CAC Index advanced 125.01 points (3.94%) last week.
Wonder of wonders! The Athens Index advanced 63.24 points (9.81%) last week. The Index broke above an intermediate downtrend and its 50 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher and approaching overbought levels. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is changing from negative.
Currencies
The U.S. Dollar fell 1.29 points last week. Intermediate trend is up. The Dollar trades above its 50 and 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have peaked and are trending down.
The Euro added 2.56 points last week. Intermediate trend is down. The Euro trades below its 50 and 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators have bottomed and are trending higher.
The Canadian Dollar added 0.95 cents U.S. last week. The Dollar tried to move above a triangle pattern, but backed off on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are slightly overbought.
The Japanese Yen was virtually unchanged (down 0.10) for the second consecutive week. The six month trading range between 127.48 and 132.18 remains intact. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels and are trending down.
Commodities
The CRB Index added 2.21 points (0.72%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at 292.39 and resistance is at 324.99. The Index moved above its 50 day moving average on Thursday. Short term momentum indicators are rolling over from overbought levels.
Gasoline added $0.04 per gallon last week. It briefly broke resistance at $2.84. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking. Seasonal influences turn positive in mid-February.
Crude oil eased $0.53 per barrel (0.54%) last week. Crude fell below its 50 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels and are trending down.
Natural Gas plunged another $0.32 per MBtu (12.1%) last week. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.
The TSX Energy ETF added $0.40 (2.36%) last week. “Gassy” stocks continued to struggle while “Oily” stocks recorded gains. Short term momentum indicators are neutral.
The Philadelphia Oil Services Index added 10.73 points (4.81%) last week. The Index remains in a three month range between 204.59 and 244.54. Short term momentum indicators are overbought but continue to trend higher.
The S&P Energy Index has a similar pattern. Seasonality turns positive in mid-February.
Gold gained another $24.70 per ounce (1.51%) last week. It remained above its 200 day moving average and is testing its 50 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher and are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Silver and platinum are preferred at this time of year.
The Gold Bug Index fell 17.82 points (3.43%) last week despite gains in the price of gold. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels and are trending down. Strength relative to gold has turned from neutral to negative.
Silver advanced $2.28 per ounce (7.66%) last week. Support is at $26.15. Silver moved above its 50 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to gold has turned from neutral to positive. Seasonal influences are positive.
Platinum gained another $33.00 per ounce (2.20%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at $1,347.60. It moved above its 50 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher and are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Seasonal influences are positive. Strength relative to gold has turned positive.
Copper gained $0.10 per lb. (2.74%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from negative to positive after breaking above resistance at $3.75. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher and are overbought, but have yet to show significant signs of peaking. Seasonal influences are positive. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has turned positive.
Lumber slipped $4.25 (1.66%) last week. Lumber completed a “Golden Cross” last week when its 50 day moving average moved above its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels. Seasonal influences are positive until mid-Feb.
Lumber stocks (e.g. Canfor, West Fraser, Interfor) continue to move sharply higher on anticipation of strength in demand for lumber from China and Japan.
The Grain ETN added $0.85 (2.02%) last week. Short term momentum indicators are oversold and showing early signs of bottoming.
The Agriculture ETF added $1.24 (2.48%) last week. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher and are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
Interest Rates
The yield on 10 year Treasuries increased 17.5 basis points last week. Yield remains in a five month range between 1.696% and 2.407%. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels. . On Thursday, it moved above its 50 day moving average.
Conversely, price on the long term Treasury ETF fell $3.90 last week. Units fell below their 50 day moving average on Thursday and support at 117.36 on Friday.
Other Factors
The VIX Index plunged $2.63 (12.58%) last week to reach a six month low. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming.
Macro events are likely to influence equity markets this week. Greece is a focus as it negotiates a deal with lenders to reduce the value of its sovereign debt by 50%. The “sticky point” is the rate on new debt that replaces existing debt. The market is anticipating a positive result. Other events to watch include the Eurogroup meeting today, Euro’s flash Purchasing Managers Index on Tuesday and the Davos World Economic Forum on Wednesday. In the U.S. the FOMC meeting on Wednesday and the fourth quarter preliminary GDP report on Friday.
Fourth quarter earnings reports from the U.S. flood the market this week. The focus changes from the financial services and technology sectors into Health Care and Energy. Responses to reports released to date have been significant in both directions.
Economic news this week is expected to be mixed to slightly positive this week. Recently, positive economic surprises have diminished.
Intermediate technical indicators are overbought. Most sectors have yet to show signs of a peak. The exceptions are Utilities, Consumer Staples and Energy, sectors that peaked 2-3 weeks ago.
Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but in most cases have yet to show significant signs of peaking.
Cash on the sidelines remains substantial. It likely will remain on the sidelines until a clearer picture of the 2012 Presidential election results become apparent. The outlook became less clear over the weekend when Gingrich won the South Carolina primary.
Tom Rogers’ Weekly Elliott Wave Blog
http://www.tomrogers.net/signpost.htm
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Dow Jones Utility Average (^DJU) Index Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC January 20th 2011
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: HAL, PG, RIMM
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Discussions from the Tech Talk Forum:
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January 23rd, 2012 at 6:06 am
Have a look at HNU-t (GAZ, UNG) & HVU-t (VXX) on a 2-hour timeframe:
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=319cee40-b508-4014-8387-3589a7e019fb
If you got stuck in HVU from 7 days ago, that is understandable, as there
was an apparent turnaround in price then.
hmm……… wonder why there is so much open interest
in the VXX puts at the 25 26 & 27 Feb strikes?
VXX closed at 28.43 on Friday.
January 23rd, 2012 at 9:06 am
Jim Cramer calling RIM another failed Canadian company after he followed Nortel and Gandalf. What a jerk.
January 23rd, 2012 at 9:07 am
Eve
Good morning… just want to let you know I e-mailed you a joke
January 23rd, 2012 at 9:18 am
hi Twany,
What will you do with your Hvu.to?
January 23rd, 2012 at 9:33 am
Nick
Do not know… what would YOU do?
January 23rd, 2012 at 9:42 am
Rol Lew
Re #1… perhaps it this is due to the rumours on a QE 3? But we have also heard tht this is not going to happen, yet.
January 23rd, 2012 at 9:45 am
Twany,
I only have 300 shares… Still holding’
January 23rd, 2012 at 9:53 am
Tawny: Still holding HVU, re post 6 I heard that as well, however, they are talking about improving economy for the markets going up.
Rol- Lew: Could you please give your opinion HVU. Thanks.
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:10 am
hvu.to is easy to trade , like tvix or vxx
when vix futures are in contango= sell
and when vix futures are in backwardation =buy
now ,vix futures are in contango so don’t buy hvu.to ,sell on corrections
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:15 am
hvu.to ?
look at long term charts for hnu.to , hou.to , vxx to see the efect of contango
hnu.to , from 7000 ( yes 7 thousands ) in July 2008 to 4 ( four ) today
hou.to , from 225 to 6
vxx , from 450 in March 2009 to 27 today
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:22 am
hi Micheal, you have a wonderful memory. Thanks for the update you made, on the week-end, on ELR.TO. I sold it at a big loss in december. I am too much of a novice. I learned my lesson.
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:24 am
Amazing – HVU is down over 4% while VIX is up about 2.5%. Is this due to contangO?
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:26 am
whats the news on Nat gas up, hnu 10%, eca by 6% cog 7%
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:30 am
hvu is down because , while vix is up , vix futures are down !
vix 18.75 up 2,57 %
vix futures for February 21.63 dowm 0.92 %
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:30 am
tawny
I know that vxx is always 1/2 the move of the vix so if vix moves 10% vxx moves 5%
but since hvu is 2X vix this means 2.5% for the vix would mean 5% for HVU
so if the vix closes today at 2.5% and hvu closes 4% NAV should be adjusted to 5%.
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:31 am
oops sorry Tawny I tought you said vix -2.5 not +2.5
have no clue.
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:31 am
Hi sw2009. Who are you?! Actually, I have a wonderful memory for the most trivial things (not that ELR is trivial to you). A lot of the times I can remember a specific meal I had at a restaurant 10 years ago, but can’t remember a person’s name from 10 minutes ago! Must be old age. Good trading!
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:32 am
Holders of HVU may want to read Equity Clock for today
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:40 am
#13
Tony – prob. this:
http://www.stockwatch.com/News/Item.aspx?bid=U-b005447-U:CHK-20120123&symbol=CHK&news_region=U
(expectation is other prod. are to follow)
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:43 am
Hi Lin and others. Kung Hei Fat Choi! I hope that the Year of the Dragon is good to us all!
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:49 am
#12
Tawny, you have to take into consideration the actual (Fri) closing price for VIX – while HVU stopped trading at 4pm, VIX didn’t close until 4:15 or 4:30 – during that time the price dropped, therefore you have different starting point for both of them.
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:50 am
Hi,Micheal and others
Kung Hei Fat Choi! Happy New Year! Thanks Micheal!
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:53 am
Thx Anna,
I knew TLM came out a few weeks ago saying they were going to cut on nasty gas production.
now Chesapeek well that looks promising
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:53 am
Thx Anna,
I knew TLM came out a few weeks ago saying they were going to cut on nasty gas production.
now Chesapeek well that looks promising
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:00 am
LIN Kung Hei Fat Choi! Out family will be celebrating at Dim Sum in Toronto Saturday – then the UK family take flight from Pearson bittersweet!
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:05 am
Re: HVU vs VIX (VXX) comparison on Yahoo
Does not show much diversion as per last week’s comments.
Michael: Lucky you, enjoy the sunshine.
Gung Hei is equivalent to Congratulations or Wishing you happiness, and Fat Choi, means Sudden and huge increase on your property. So Gung Hei Fat Choy … to all our cyber friends who celebrate this holiday.
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:10 am
Kay, Anna, Nick
Re HVU and VIX
Here is interesting chart comparing HVU to VIX and VXX-T
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/markets/stocks/chart/?q=HVU-T
For the moment I am oing to stay with it… eventually it has to come back up, right.
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:11 am
Some action in HVU – anything up? (news-wise)
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:11 am
Lin, Happy New Year !
I hope you had a special dinner last night for New Years Eve.
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:17 am
Lin
I am wishing you a happy dragon year too!
Apparently there are no really good Chinese restaurants here in Kingston.
Just what I have heard.
Will see if that brings Wayne or Hniel out to tell us that is wrong. LOL
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:17 am
Cramer, same guy that urged investors to buy Bear Stears…RIMM is not a US consumer story with US being at or below 20% of revenues currently. I think buying/adding through $18 US and again through $20.25US on RIMM makes sense. Relative valuation metrics show it to be too cheap to ignore.
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:21 am
Re: post 26 explanation was for not meant for the ones that celebrate the holidays.
Tawny: I am thinkiing the same way too, at some point the market has to trend down a little if not it will be like the gold and silver etfs. I wish us both luck. Please post if you are exiting. Thanks and have a profitable day. The news out of Greece over the weekend is different from today, today they said much more time is needed.
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:26 am
CJ, sky and Tawny
Kung Hei Fat Choi! Happy New Year! Thanks!
There are a lot of Chinese restaurants here in Calgary. I made big dinner for family yesterday evening!
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:29 am
Marc
I wouldn’t buy rimm unless I had an insurance policy, they are buying puts all the way to 11$.
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:31 am
For the HVU holders from stocktiming:
“Conspicuously missing is the banter from the press about Greece. Bond holder negotiations stalled yesterday. Bond Holders wanted just over a 4% interest rate. The deal that was being dumped on them was just over a 65% loss on the face vale of the current bonds.
Germany wanted the banks to take a very small haircut on these negotiations because many banks would become insolvent if the amount is too much due of the leverage factor used by banks. This is a big deal, and one should wonder why the press is avoiding the topic as much as they are.
Also a concern not being discussed much, is Greece’s dependency on Iranian oil to the tune of 14% of their total oil consumption. There was huge fear about this on Friday because if that oil was lost due to U.S. sanctions, then that would have a very negative effect on Greece’s economy and its ability to meet its bond obligations. So, what happened last night? The European Union joined the U.S. sanctions recommendation and formally adopted an oil embargo against Iran. Greece immediately wanted oil protections from other countries to offset the embargo actions that would injure them.
Tie all that to the British profit picture, and there are plenty of problems that our media seems to be overlooking or down playing. What about the British profit picture? Apparently their third quarter showed a 70%+ increase in profit warnings … and that was the largest quarterly increase in roughly ten years. This should be an interesting week.”
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:32 am
Kay
I might hold HVU for a quite awhile. Markets are overly complacent. This from Equity clock which I checked out thanks to Paul, above.
“Sentiment on Friday, according to the put-call ratio, ended overly bullish at 0.80. Complacency remains at extremes, which suggests that investors are severely vulnerable to a swift market decline. In events such as this, selling momentum can escalate quickly as a result of very subdued selling pressures to start the year. Market volumes so far this month have been dismal, in part because nobody is selling or placing negative bets as a result of this slow grind higher. This is a rather unhealthy attribute due to the fact that too many investors are crowding the bullish side of the boat. As the buying pool depletes or speculation of good things to come evaporates, selling momentum is likely to pick up, putting equity benchmarks at risk of a swift decline.”
I would think if there is a selling momentum the fear factor will also rise…
don’t want to take a loss here, because the VIX / HVU could turn fast and one always has the feeling it is too late to buy in… my experience, anyway.
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:37 am
Jimmy
Re #35. Hi. I don’t think I have seen you on this blog before. Thanks for posting that info from StockTiming… I also get that newsletter…. just saw it in my e-mail after reading your post.
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:38 am
Hi Lin,
Kung Hei Fat Choi!!! All the best Lin for the year of the Black Water Dragon
May the year be a happy and prosperous one Lin, for you and your loved ones 
Eve
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:42 am
re SPX:
Larry Berman just said on BNN that 1315 is resistance for the SPX and that 6 indicators he’s looking at (including bulls vs bears being 2 to 1, put/call ratio being highest level as it was when the market pulled back last July, and February being not a good month seasonally) is telling him the markets are going to pull back. He thinks it will pullback to 1260 area and then push up to 1350 to 1370 and if the SPX reaches those levels, to sell everything as that is most likely the top for this year. He thinks today could be a “reversal” day for the SPX – as in, reaching a high and then pulling back down (gives a reversal candlestick).
Eve
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:48 am
Eve
Kung Hei Fat Choi! Happy New Year and wish all the best to you and family!
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:50 am
Thanks Eve!
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:51 am
Hi Jimmy,
Welcome to the board
Thank you so much for posting that info from that newsletter! Very good points in it for sure!! So, thank you for letting us all in on that info Jimmy 
Eve
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:51 am
Thank you Lin
Eve
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:54 am
Jimmy,
Can you direct me to the Stock timing website?
Thanks
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:59 am
http://www.stocktiming.com/
I am signed up for their ‘free membership’ and receive an email daily.
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:02 pm
tawny , if is ok for you , can you tell at which price you bought hvu , in average ?
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Tawny: I read that article as well and another one which showed graphically where the charts are now compared to previous high and how they turned back. So holding on tight.
Eve: Thanks for the SPX update.
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:04 pm
re SPX:
Oh DEFINITELY a reversal day today!! – thus far that is
eve
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:20 pm
thanks Jimmy…appreciate it!
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:27 pm
Copper looks like it may be topping out and the US $ at support. The market, i HOPE, will go down soon. It better i am a BIT under water on my shorts and i don’t swim so good. Kind of a sinker.
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:51 pm
It would be nice if a few on this board were with me on hoping for things to move UP instead of down – my cash is all in, and I keep hoping against all hope for an upward trend. No shorts, no bear ETFs just stocks and more red ink.
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Hurk: Good sense of humour. You made me laugh.
January 23rd, 2012 at 12:58 pm
CJ,
COG is up big time today!!
I noticed last week that you bought AMZN – BUT, I also noticed that day that AMAZ was very overbought and at the top of the keltner – and away from the 4 day too! So, why did you buy it at that point? especially when you saw that Don V. and the board has been talking of a pullback coming in the markets for over a week now?! Don’t buy anything CJ that is overbought on the chart – just wait for it to come down to a support level to buy it.
Eve
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:01 pm
CJ
I am hoping the market goes up although I do understand the concerns of those that bought HVU as an example hoping for a reversal of some sort. That reversal will come as all markets are approaching overbought on the RSI and are close to the 20,3 Keltner. I have taken profits on some of my bank stocks today and hope to sell some of my oils later. Good Luck with your trades.
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:06 pm
mick , s&p 500 could go to EMA 20 = 1285
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:12 pm
s&p 500 could go higher in 4-6 months from now .
10 year treasury notes $tnx is at 2 % , same level like december 2008 .
last year was at 3,5 %
a rally in $tnx back to 3-3,5 % = rally in S&p 500 , $ vix =15 and lower , hvu under 10 .
maybe or maybe not
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Hi mick/nv. I sold some of my BMO today as well, and it’s still going up! I may sell my HXT.to while the market seems to be inching its way back up.
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Hi all. I didn’t read any postings on the weekend…just in case. By the way, where’s Slava?!
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:17 pm
Michael,
I’ve been wondering the same re Slava! Wonder where she is today! Hope she’s ok.
Eve
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Hi Micheal
isn’t slava with you? after the wonderful dinner you prepared for her. IO taught she didn’t want to leave your arms.
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:20 pm
Michael
yes, the banks have had a good run, and many of them are overbought and above the 20,3 keltner. It is always nice to take profits and have some money available when a pullback occurs. I believe Don V. said similar this morning in his ‘Bottom Line’ segment.
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Hi Eve. Maybe she eloped! By the way, I did pick up some PEY.to on Friday. I don’t understand why it’s not having a better day given nasty gassy prices and other gassy stocks.
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:23 pm
I got this today in my email from a free newsletter:
Improving Market Sentiment:
Why You Should Be Leery of It
~ by Michael Lombardi, MBA
The bear market is doing an excellent job with investors’ attitude towards the stock market. We can see it in the market’s performance…
So far this year, the S&P 500 has gained 4.6%—its best January start in 15 years! Market sentiment—how investors feel about the stock market—has shown a marked improvement.
The eurozone, through its Long Term Repo Operation (LTRO), has provided liquidity to the eurozone banks, which has improved market sentiment there for now. This solves the eurozone’s short-term liquidity problem (but does nothing to solve the mountain of debt on their balance sheets and on the balance sheets of the countries themselves—a crisis that will resurface in the not-too-distant future).
With the eurozone currently calm, U.S. Treasuries yielding close to zero, and market sentiment turning positive, money has found its way back into the equities market.
It sounds like an attractive proposition: China’s economy is slowing and their central bank has stated that it will ease monetary policy, providing more monetary liquidity. The eurozone is providing monetary liquidity. How could market sentiment not be improving?
Here in the U.S., the Fed is determined to hold rates low until 2013 and there have been no fewer than five Fed governors talking about the need to provide more support to the economy by buying more bonds, specifically, mortgage-backed securities—QE3. Should this occur, it is more money printing—liquidity. This will do wonders for market sentiment!
The problem with this story, as I have been documenting over many months, is that this liquidity hasn’t resulted in growth. In order for equities market to continue to perform well and market sentiment to remain positive, earnings are going to have to grow and, in order for that to occur, consumer demand is going to have to come back to life.
With almost every part of the world currently experiencing slow growth, and with the eurozone already most likely in a recession, I don’t see how consumer spending will improve.
Over the last few years, China and India have been the strongest growing economies in the world. However, as 2011 came to a close, their growth rates began to slow noticeably. These countries themselves have slashed their growth forecasts for 2012. Here in the U.S., anemic job growth and stagnant wages continue to pressure consumers.
With the consumer missing in action, and growth a fleeting mirage, investors should tread very carefully with this latest rise in market sentiment and corresponding rise in the equities market.
You shouldn’t see the sign of investors turning bullish on stocks as a positive. On the contrary, I believe the secular bear market is simply achieving its goal of luring more investors back into stocks during this phase of the bear market, a rally often called the “sucker’s rally.”
Michael’s Personal Notes:
A stronger sign of inflation headed our way…
Late last week, the U.S. Treasury sold $15.0 billion in 10-year Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (more commonly known as “TIPS”) at a negative yield (interest rate), for the first time in its history. Demand for this issue was strong from bond investors.
TIPS are instruments that are purchased by bond investors from the U.S. Treasury as a hedge against inflation.
TIPS are tied to the Consumer Price Index (CPI). This means that, should inflation rise, TIPS would pay the bond investor the interest plus the change in inflation that occurred over the previous year. Should there be deflation, however, the bond investor would lose money on his/her investment.
For the first time, bond investors paid a negative yield, which means bond investors paid extra to purchase these TIPS from the U.S. Treasury.
This, dear reader, tells me two things. On the surface, if we look at this (bond investors buying Treasuries with negative returns), we think investors are finding fewer and fewer places to park their money safely—they are sacrificing profit for the actual return of their money. But there is more to it.
With the eurozone crisis unresolved and global growth slowing significantly around the world, which I’ve been writing a lot about lately, investors are looking for safety. Right now, the safest of currencies to be in is the U.S. dollar…and maybe only because it is the reserve currency of the world.
When bond investors buy TIPS with a negative return, it really tells me that bond investors are worried about inflation. Why pay more for something unless you are fairly confident it will appreciate in value in the future?
As I’ve been writing since the credit crisis started, the Fed is trying desperately to generate inflation. Bond investors are telling the market that they think the Fed will be successful. Combine this with the Fed governors indirectly continually talking about QE3 and the argument for buying TIPS from the U.S. Treasury becomes that more attractive to bond investors.
In my opinion, if you are going to buy an inflation hedge, gold-related investments do really make the best play. TIPS are fine, but not at a negative yield and not when they pay out in dollars. Should the Fed continue to expand the money supply aggressively (i.e. printing money), then the value of those U.S. dollars will continue to fall, which means a bond investor would be paid back in the future with dollars that are worth less than today—evaporating any return earned by the bond investor from higher inflation.
Gold offers protection from currency depreciation, since historically, it rises when currencies depreciate. History has repeated itself over the last 10 years. As the dollar depreciated in value, gold embarked on its bull run.
This is why gold has been a store of value for thousands of years. It can’t be printed, its supply is limited, and it is very difficult to mine.
Inflation is coming. The recent action in the TIPS market is just another sign of that. But if you want to protect yourself against inflation, the best vehicle, in my opinion, is still gold-related investments.
Where the Market Stands; Where it’s Headed:
You have to hand it to this market. Quietly, without much fanfare, January is turning out to be a banner month for the Dow Jones Industrial Average. With seven more trading days in the month still to go, the market is up four percent for 2012 already.
I’ve been writing for months that the bear market rally that started in March of 2009 is alive and well. We’ve been seeing the proof since the beginning of October. But each time the market moves higher, more investors and stock advisors enter the bullish camp. Nothing alarming yet, but once enough people are in the bullish camp, that’s when we will see the bear market rally finally run for the exit gate.
What He Said:
“Prepare for the worst economic period ahead that we have seen in years, my dear reader, as that is what I see coming. I’ve written over the past three years how, in the late 1920s, real estate prices fell first before the stock market and how I felt the same would happen this time. Home prices in the U.S. peaked in 2005 and started falling in 2006. The stock market is following suit here in 2008. Is a depression coming? No. How about a severe deflationary recession? Yes!” Michael Lombardi in PROFIT CONFIDENTIAL, January 21, 2008. Michael started talking about and predicting the economic catastrophe we began experiencing in 2008 long before anyone else.
————————————————————————————
Tawny, this is similar to what YOU wrote a few weeks ago – about luring people into the markets just to pull the markets down right after that!
Eve
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:34 pm
Jimmy, thanks for the website!
I have too many free subscriptions and paid subscriptions with free trial periods.
Now I’m more confused than ever!
Many predicts short term drop (within 2 weeks), but also one huge drop between end of march and may.
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Lin,
Happy Chinese New Year!
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Eve
I think that you should create a newsletter also, I bet your predictions would be far more accurate than some of these pundits.
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Young
Kung Hei Fat Choi! And Have a very Happy New Year to you and family!
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:46 pm
Thanks mick/nv – that’s such a nice endorsement
BUT, RECENTLY, my “predictions” haven’t been doing so well as I thought for sure by now, the SPX would have started to come down – although, I did say last week or the week before that if it got to 1315, it could head higher to around 1325-1330 before it came down (with resistance at 1340 to 1345). Today it got to 1322 – so, not too bad on that one I guess 
Thanks mick – you’re very sweet to say this
I’d never do it though as I would be too afraid of getting things terribly wrong 
and thus, costing people too much in bad trades on my potential calls 
Thanks mick
Eve
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Mick #54 – Yes Mick I also am concerned for Tawney and others that are in HVU – just like I am frquently concerned with “SLAVA THE SHORTER”
I am beginning to wonder if negativism begets the same? What makes a Stock go up? Buyers of stock – Believers in the company! What makes them go down Sellers and shorters I think. Simplistic view, but I find reading the blog lately very depressing, so I am just watching – none of my stocks are in an area to “take profits” there are none. All I can do is watch and wait.
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:56 pm
From Mark Leibovit this morning:
The American Association of Individual Investors (AAII) Sentiment Survey says investors are 49% bullish and 17% bearish. That’s extreme bullish sentiment… well beyond the average levels of 39% bullish and 30% bearish.
In a simple weekly survey, AAII asks a self-selected group of investors if they’re bullish, bearish, or neutral on stocks for the next six months. It tends to be a decent contrarian indicator. So the bullish sentiment right now appears to be a near-term sell signal.
But hold on a minute…
If you take a slightly longer time frame into consideration, maybe investors look really scared, not bullish…
Through December 2011, investors made net withdrawals from equity mutual funds for eight months in a row – eight months of selling. That’s the first time that’s happened in at least 20 years, according to Bloomberg. That’s really bearish sentiment. The market bottomed in early October… but investors just kept selling.
Investors’ actions last year have yielded a clear result: Stocks are cheaper than they were a year ago. Last year at this time, the S&P 500 was trading for more than 15 times earnings. Now, it’s less than 14 times earnings.
If you’re a trader, you should be careful going long stocks right now. But if you’re a long-term, value-oriented investor, you’re probably finding some good deals.
January 23rd, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Eve
I think you would do quite well, these analysts are wrong alot, doesn’t seem to bother them as they keep putting out the same nonsense again and again. they will get it right eventually and they will let all know about it. For the SPX, here is the daily chart. It went above the top Pivot point (R2) Thursday and so far has held. The other indices are similar. As you know, this is now support. As long as this holds, the market can continue higher, it can also continue higher without getting overbought or above the 20,3 keltner, although I would not expect that to happen. I am expecting some type of pullback ( mid-keltner ??), maybe after Ben speaks this week?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p50731707426&a=183214001
January 23rd, 2012 at 2:13 pm
CJ
Hope you still held on to your ENB.to, it pulled back a bit but now looks like it is turning around and on it’s way up. it appears that T.to is starting to do the same.
January 23rd, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Lin
Happy new year which you a red envelope with some gold jewelry
January 23rd, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Mick #72
Yes my TFSA is OK Mick – that’s with iTrade; but everything else is tanking – T.TO at 56.36 a favourite spot. Needs another 1.38 just to break even!
January 23rd, 2012 at 2:38 pm
hi mick/nv,
i don’t think the r2 pivot (1310) though will act as support – as we went above it on friday and today too but yet today, we were also below it at 1309. So, I don’t think that will act as a support point. Yes, I think that when Ben speaks on wednesday, I think he will say no QE 3 is coming – and why would there be any QE3 right now anyway when the markets are rallying – not pulling back significantly like they were in 2010 which is why ben announced QE2 at that point and made the markets rally hard! So, i don’t expect he’ll be announcing a QE3 on wednesday and in fact, i think he’ll say NO QE for the foreseeable future – and i think THAT will ultimately cause the markets to come down – because right now (from what I have read in several sources), the markets are EXPECTING a QE announcement – and that’s why they’re buying up the markets – (buy the rumour), so when the NEWS comes out on Wed of REALITY
, I think that will cause the markets to sell off – especially if he says something about bad headwinds still there in housing or from Europe or from china slowing down etc – if he says things are looking better and better these days and that’s why no QE will even be NEEDED, then I can see “potentially” the markets going up on that kind of news – but still, the saying still comes to my mind of “BUY the rumour and SELL the NEWS!”. So, I think they’ll “sell” the news on wednesday – regardless of what the news is!
thanks mick
eve
January 23rd, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Freddebuoy,
Thank you so much for sharing that info with the board
It’s nice to “see” you on here Fredde
You’re on very infrequently, so, it’s nice to “see” your posts 
Eve
January 23rd, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Tony – have you checked nat gas prices recently? Woahhhh… Short covering????
January 23rd, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Anna,
don’t know but just looking at ung, hnu.to, gaz they all add a spike in volume as if anybody holding it got fed up and decided to throw in the towel.
January 23rd, 2012 at 2:52 pm
#78
The funniest thing is, last week every single analyst was shouting about $2 nat gas. Should have loaded up – after news like that opposite usually happens! Ehhh…. market analysts… what do they know….
January 23rd, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Eve
the funny thing is that when QE2 ended they started pushing the markets lower,
then came operarktion twist and markets started rallying.
now why are they pushing the markets higher? probably because they know the only way to make money is it the push the markets higher
January 23rd, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Anna
they are the shrinks of the market, if they say jump you will jump and they will make sure to be on the other side of the call and waiting for you.
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:01 pm
#81
Thx Tony – that was the best! (and prob. so very true!) I’m curious – when they make calls like that do they buy long positions at same time? Wouldn’t be surprised at all!
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:05 pm
For all the HVU/Greek debt deal watchers:
Latest from twitter (yeah, I know) – “GREECE: Greek govt official says Eurogroup decided to continue PSI negotiation” @ 3pm
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Anna
just took a peek at the options on UNG they are buying the calls
Feb 7$ calls
April 8$ calls.
July 7$ calls.
I recall reading news on a company saying they were hedged to 5$ Nat gas.
so now the question is do I have the guts to take ung for a 1.5$ to 2.5$ ride or not?
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Tony
That is very nice of you! Thanks!Kung Hei Fat Choi! Happy New Year and wish all the best to you and family!
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Anna
A free tutorial class from Online trading academy said you go against every the upgrades and downgrades and you will make money for sure.
and I recall one company I did tested the theory on was dman, GS gave it a 14$ target it was trading at 9$ it fell in the 5$ area before heading to 14$ then it came back to 6$ and lately got bought out at 14$.
only thing is you need to have nerves of steel to live through the roller coaster ride.
recall Nortel they gave a 200$ price target and dropped to being a worthless company.
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Thx anna for the heads up on greece,
I am beginning to think this market is rallying only to see how much money banks will lose on every $ invested in bonds.
probably someone knows something by now and are pushing this market higher only so that they can kill the market by the loss in capital they will have to sustain.
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Eve , Ben will say no QE3 because is not necessary , economy is holding ok , so we will have a rally in stocks with money moving from bonds and to stocks .
maybe or maybe not
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:23 pm
NTR
Eve, Michael – I just logged in a few minutes ago. I’ve had such a busy weekend! I worked on Saturday and then in the evening Michael and I headed to a fabulous birthday party in Kerrisdale. One of Michael’s gay friends was turning 50 (and the guy doesn’t look a day over 36). It was a sight to be seen to walk into a room with about 100 really hot gay men! I was one of 5 women at the party… Amazing music, dancing, drinks and then after midnight we headed over to that $3 million house which I’m house sitting this week. Their main bathroom is the size of my Yaletown condo! We soaked in the tub for a while while drinking cold champagne and then the rest I’ll leave up to your imagination (tony, yes, we did a lot of talking
). So another amazing weekend, I think I’m falling in love (I’m probably already in love since I can’t wait to see him and it’s only been about 16 hours).
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Happy to report that last Thursday my predictions were spot on – I said to buy hnu, buy cog and short fm. All of these trades would have worked out very well. HNU is at +18% today. I hope this marks the reversal in my bad luck in the markets!
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Lin, wishing you and your family a very Happy year of the dragon – much health, prosperity and happiness! I have many Chinese friends here in Vancouver and we’ll be going out to celebrate this week at one of the fabulous Chinese restaurants in Richmond. Thank you for sharing your knowledge and wisdom with the rest of us and looking forward to reading your posts in the New Year!
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:31 pm
My posts #92 is awaiting moderation sine it has two links.. So I’ll break it into two:
Eve, tony, mick/inv, Lin, Michael, others – what do you think of the following as today’s trades?
1. Short TD at $80.45
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p04312914830
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:31 pm
2. Long SDS at $17.53
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SDS&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p81276182444
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Slava,
I hope you stuck by your hnu call.
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Slava
re: #90
I still think you should be on market call.
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Slava
I would stay away from the SDS trade, it has been going down for a very long time. The banks are probably rising because of the talks out of Europe (guessing) but most of the banks are now overbought and above the 20,3 keltner. it is better shorting here than shorting where it was a week ago, keeping in mind that it can stay overbought for awhile and the pullback may not be that much.
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:36 pm
mick/inv, re post 96.. even a broken clock is right twice a day
I’ve made some really bad calls lately so it’s good to see smth working out..
What’s still not working out is CMG and lulu short.
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Back in December I was suggesting on here to buy pta.v. I own 185,000 shares.. It’s up +33% on large volume. Thank you God!
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Slava
TD at 82$ area not before unless greek gets it on the chin and you see a reversal befofe 82 has been hit.
sds Ok the activity on the puts is some selling so this looks good, but what doesn’t look good for now is they are also selling the calls, starting at 16 going to 19 so I would wait between 16 and 17 before I would go long on this one.
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Kay – re #8 – HVU.t – I do not trade this one,
but I use it’s counterpart VXX.
I feel that HVU / VXX will conntinue to decline in Feb,
or at least, it will not rally very much during the monnth.
Today HVU = 11.69 -0.56 & VXX = 27.67 – 0.75
Specifically, I do not believe that HVU will get to 26 by Feb 17th
expiration, which is like saying that I do not believe that VXX will
get to 40 by that date. So I am short the Feb 40/50 Call spread @ 16 cents.
This is not as aggressive as actually shorting HVU-t or shorting VXX,
actually, it]s downright chicken! but it should make me a few dollars,
without losing me any sleep.
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Slava,
Congratulations on recent trades + pta.v!
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:43 pm
I was reading an update from Mark Leibovit and he thinks tomorrow will be a turn around Tuesday. Perhaps I’ll take 1/2 short position now in td and the rest if it goes to $82?
I was reading Eve’s note and Larry Berman also thinks that S&P will be pulling back.
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Slava,
Sounds like an AWESOME weekend!!! Good for you honey!! So happy for you that you are having such a good thing with your new beau
re LULU:
I hope you didn’t short LULU as it is now at $62.50!! What a weird stock!!
eve
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Young, thank you. I bought a bunch in tfsa at $0.10.
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Slava
Yes, that is why I suggested that Eve write her own newsletter.
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Eve, lulu is at +3%.. and I still haven’t covered. Investorline hasn’t covered it for me yet either.
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Hi Slava. Re #92, go for it! TD is uber overbought…just do it small (not thousands of shares!).
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:50 pm
I’m also looking at my CP short and wondering what to do with it. CP is reporting earnings tomorrow.. Hmm.. Any suggestions?
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:51 pm
PTA-v
Way to Go Slava!
Your patience is being rewarded!
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Michael, I shorted 300 shares of TD at $80.25. Wish me luck! It’s not paying a dividend any time soon so I can hang on to my short position.
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:54 pm
Slava
it is interesting that you are able to short more without covering your prev short?
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:54 pm
Hi Slava: Congrats on your pta gain!! I’ve been watching the bears for a buy also…sds, spxu, hsd, hxd…. they have to be putting a bottom in soon…on the US side they are make new lows daily. I will watch the level that Tony has suggested. There hasn’t been any dialogue on here about the bears for awhile…..a contrarian indicator, perhaps???
Happy, happy new year to all and I wish everyone a healthy and prosperous 2012
January 23rd, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Slava
Kung Hei Fat Choi! Happy New Year and wish all the best to you and family!
Yes. You had great call on AMZN, HNU and FM! Way to go ! Just keep size small!
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Tawny
Following our telephone conversation this morning, I am still confident that you will make money on your HVU position and to back my confidence I started buying in myself at $11.60.
I looked up their prospectus http://www.horizonsetfs.com/Pdf/prospectus/VIX_Prospectus.pdf
Page 22 talks about risks and this paragraph left me sure that HVU will trade in a range as we discussed and sooner or later will recover your capital…like I said ‘not if but when it rallies’
Risk that the VIX Index Level will be Constrained
In the past, the level of the VIX Index has typically reverted over the longer term to a historical mean, and its
absolute level has been constrained within a band. Unlike conventional stock based indexes and funds, it is not
expected that the return of the Underlying Index or the ETFs will generally rise over time. Rather the return of the
Underlying Index and the ETFs will rise and fall (or fall and rise) as volatility increases and decreases (or decreases
and increases). For most investors this likely implies that the ETFs should only be used as a short term tactical tool
rather than a buy and hold investment. It is likely that the VIX Index will continue along a similar trend in the
future, especially at times when there is less economic uncertainty. If this happens, the value of futures contracts on
the VIX Index will likely decrease, reflecting the market expectation of reduced volatility in the future. The
potential upside of an investment in an ETF will correspondingly be limited as a result.
Hope this settles your mind.
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:04 pm
Lin, Teri, thank you. If one is lucky enough to pick a good junior it can be very lucrative… +38% in one day doesn’t happen very often with senior stocks unless there is a take over. At the same time most of the time it is a pure gamble.. and much more often than not a person loses money in juniors (I’ve learnt the hard way in 2011).
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:04 pm
Slava
# 91, Thank you very much! You are very sweet! Very same back to you too.:)
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:05 pm
mick/inv, I have three margin accounts so I short in different accounts.
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Hats off to those who short on margin accounts….I used to trade futures both ways back in the 1990s but found I couldn’t always sleep at night. I admire anyone who has the nerve for shorting…good luck to you all and maybe one day you will give me the confidence to try again.
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:11 pm
NTR
Eve, re #104, thank you sweet Eve! At the same time I’m starting to feel very anxious and vulnerable – what if this doesn’t work out in the long run? Like I said I have some very big concerns about his finances. Also, I feel this high I’m experiencing with him is “too high”.. if this doesn’t work out how will I be able to get over this? Hopefully not a “crash and burn” scenario in the future like in “9 1/2 weeks”. I suppose I should just enjoy this for now.
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Slava #110 – Sorry I’m not able to support you on this one
My TD shares need to get above $85 so I’m hoping it continues to climb out of the hole it has dug since I bought May 30th 2011!
I’m really surprised that Tony did not even mention the 4ma crossing the 9ma before shorting, but he did say “TD at 82$ area not before” but you went ahead anyway – strange????
RSI – not yet overbought; stochastics, overbought but showing a turn UPWARD, MACD histogram positive, volume last few days buyers not sellers I just do not understand your trading??? Still – I wish you well!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p65775508065
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:15 pm
Libby
Thanks for #114. So you jumped in or are you testing the waters. What I mean, did you buy a portion of a position or did you go full throttle?
The info from the prospectus is interesting… it seems, given the futures that many believe there is less economic uncertainty. I do not understnad where they are getting this idea. I for one, have seen mention of a possible Q3 coming from only one source where most of what I read think NO Q3. Maybe I am reading only the smart guys??
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:17 pm
Slava
NTR
I don’t know you or exactly what is going on exactly but through my own experience I have discovered that mistakes are not that important, you learn by them, but regrets are….you take them to the grave. You are clearly a risk taker or I wouldn’t be reading you on this forum. You go girl…go with your heart and your gut and live your life to the full….just use a stop loss!
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:18 pm
I have a suggestion – if you have a close relative who doesn’t take advantage of the TFSA – ask to “borrow” their tfsa room for trading. I did this with my younger sister. She is 25 and tfsa contributions are not on her mind so I’ve given her $20k (by now) to put in her tfsa and I’m the trading agent. Our agreement is that at some point in time (when she is ready to contribute) she’ll make a tfsa withdrawal, give me the balance back and then she can start contributing since one is allowed to recontribute what’s been withdrawn in the previous calendar years.
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Tawny
I went in 33% an will average in over the week….I think Bennie’s meeting later in the week will start to stir things up. For everything we discussed earlier…qe3 is looking very unlikely and as I said the fed is politically poisonous right now and a qe3 would damage Obummer’s chances of re-election; god old Ron Paul would be all over it!
Hey did anyone read that Ron Paul’s son got detained by TSA this morning for refusing a pat down….go Ron and Rand…go!!!
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Slava
That’s an ingenious idea!
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Hey CJ, re 121.. you and Tony are probably right… TD can go higher. I based my decision on two things – TD is very overbought on the keltner (went above the top line even with setting at 3) – I haven’t seen that with TD, I know that mick/inv and Eve look at this TA parameter a lot. Also, I read from several sources that markets are highly likely to pull back tomorrow. So based on these two factors and also based on the fact that TD is not a high beta stock (like cmg or lulu) and it’s not paying a dividend for a while I decided to take a chance.
TD is a very good company and I’m sure it will get back up to $85 for you at some point in time.
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:29 pm
Libby, my little sis is doing this for a fee! She wants at least 7% a year. She is such a little negotiator!
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:31 pm
tony, thank you for your analysis of td and sds.
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Libby, re “just use a stop loss!”.. how does one use a stop loss when it comes to men?
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Slava,
LOL….she is obviously learning well from her big sis!
I was thinking of setting up tfsa for my two daughter’s in college….18 and 20…but in this case to build them savings but when i think about it I know loads of people who don’t take advantage of this savings option…hmmmmm…lol
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Lin,
Kung Hei Fat Choi! How do we say it in Mandarin?
恭喜發財!
PL
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Libby, yes, she is one smart cookie. She doesn’t know much about the stock market yet she’s now starting to log into the account and scrutinize my trades! ..lol.. I think she is starting to get attached to the balance
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Slava…That’s hilarious.
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:41 pm
IOC is also very overbought at $66.55, but I don’t think I’m brave enough to touch this stock.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=IOC&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p94634817713
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:45 pm
I’ll catch everyone later, hopefully in the evening.
Michael, are you still on Phoenix? I hope so.. Vancouver is cold and grey, I’m ready for an overdose of vitamin D, pills will have to do for now
Cheers everyone.
January 23rd, 2012 at 4:56 pm
Hi CJ,
re TD.TO:
RSI is VERY overbought – it’s at 77 – and anything over 70 (on the standard setting os RSI 14 – NOT on Ron/BC’s setting of RSI 21) is overbought! Also, it is now ABOVE the top keltner on mick/nv’s EXTREME setting of 3.0 (standard setting is 2.0) – top of keltner 3.0 is $79.92 – and TD is at $80.17 – so, shorting it was a good call Slava made – especially when the seasonality for Cdn banks ends in January and then there’s another seasonal period for them that starts at the end of February. So, shorting it was a good call CJ as ALL the indicators are in place for TD to come down anytime now.
Sorry CJ as I know you’d prefer it continue to higher to get above your $85 buy in price – it will most likely get above your level though once they do their second seasonal up move in February to May.
Eve
January 23rd, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Hi Eve and Tony,
When you have time, what’s a good entry point and TA for HBM.to and SCCO (for a seasonal trade).
My Best, Ania
January 23rd, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Hi Lin,
Re: Chinese New Year
My Best wishes of health, joy, and success, Ania
January 23rd, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Another Greek twitter update: “EU rejects offer of Greek PSI reached w/ private holders – asks for coupon on new Greek bonds below 4% -EURO ZONE SOURCES” @ 5 pm
January 23rd, 2012 at 5:20 pm
#84
Tony – thx for pointing that out. Short term I think there’s going be a bounce, but long term I’m bearish (unless fundamentals change – ie. more shut-ins, fracking ban, coldest march of the century or something like that). Just look at the YOY storage #’s – pretty scary – I can’t see how they can decrease much before spring, therefore creating nat gas glut (unless again, something out of ordinary happens). Just my 2c – good luck with nat gas trading!
January 23rd, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Hi CJ, Slava and Eve. This is what I look at as a first step:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p57874283422
As Eve says, TD is very overbought (or uber overbought as I say). As a second step, it’s far away above the 4-day MA. It may not go down tomorrow, but it shouldn’t stay up here for long.
Slava, if TD goes down, you’ll have take me and Eve to the Blue Water Cafe! Oh, and you can pay for CJ’s flight out here as well!
January 23rd, 2012 at 5:47 pm
#140
More info:
“Eurozone finance ministers have sent back a Greek debt restructuring offer for further negotiation, Reuters is reporting. According to the news agency, the Greek government and the country’s bondholders had put forward a deal which assumed new 30-year bonds issued, to replace its exisiting debt, would have an average coupon of 4pc. The eurozone finance ministers want the coupon to be lower than 4pc, Reuters said.”
January 23rd, 2012 at 5:58 pm
Libby,
In post 114 you wrote : left me sure that hvu will trade in a range .
Vix will trade in a range 10-85 but not hvu
in long term , contango will push lower and lower .
Just look to a long term chart for vix and vxx ( the longer vix ETN on the market )
Vix was 15 in April 2010 , January 2011 , July 2011
vxx was 71 in April 2010 , 35 in January 2011 and 20 in July 2011.
Why the difference ? only one answer = contango
the high of vxx last summer ? 59 , never reached back 71 from April 2010 .
so vix 15 with vxx 71 in April 2010 and vix 48 with vxx 36 in August 2011 = contango effect
Backwardation effect push vxx from 36 in August to 59 in October , in the same time VIX drop from 48 to 47
How long you will hold hvu ( which is 2 x levereage of vxx ) how more damages will be .
January 23rd, 2012 at 6:03 pm
#143
Rick – bang on! I’ve tried to explain these issues to no avail – hopefully you’ll have more luck!
PS. The only reason HVU was doing so well last fall (besides high volatility) is the fact that the futures were in backwardation not contango! Today’s contango $2.2 – ouch!!!!
January 23rd, 2012 at 6:23 pm
Slava: I tried to short IOC, however RBC rejected claiming they can’t find any shares to borrow. Let me know if you get any. Price is crazy given their balance sheet.
January 23rd, 2012 at 6:34 pm
rick and Anna/TO,
I don’t know why the 2 of you keep saying this same thing – there was contango going on in the VIX since the beginning of December – YET, when the SPX went DOWN in the first half of December, the VIX had several bounces UP in that first half of Dec.(first jump up was from 25 to 30.91 around Dec 5th to Dec 12th – and in that time, HVU went up from $23 to $30 – so a $7 gain in about a week – 2nd jump up was for only 2 days from around Dec 13th to Dec 14th – the VIX went from 23 to 27.5 and HVU went from $23.80 to $26.99 – so, a $3 gain in 2 days – 3rd time was near end of Dec when VIX went from 20 to 23 – and HVU went from $16.14 to $19.86 – so, another $3 gain in a short period of time) – and yet throughout December, the VIX futures were in contango! People are simply trying to time the bounce up in the VIX and HVU when the market does eventually pull back as they can gain a few dollars in HVU when the SPX does finally pull back.
Having contango or backwardation doesn’t mean there won’t be opportunities along the way to catch countertrend rallies or declines in the underlying ETF – it just makes it more difficult due to trying to time a “COUNTERTREND” in something – but if a person can “time” it right, then yes, they can make a bit of money when that countertrend rally or decline does take effect. And THAT is what people are trying to do by timing buying into HVU. HVU won’t DECLINE when the SPX declines – it will GO UP – just like it did TODAY when the SPX had declined SLIGHTLY to 1309 – HVU went from $12.18 on opening to high of $12.40 – and sometimes, a 20 cent gain in an ETF is all a person is looking for on a day trade!
So, what you are both saying to people can be a bit misleading as it sounds like you are trying to say that a person will not make ANY money in HVU while it is in contango – and that, as can be seen by today’s price action in it and in December’s price action in it (while contango was taking place then too) is just not the reality of it!
Eve
January 23rd, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Hi everyone,
Something else to add to the mix: The following was reported in The Week, a US news magazine, in early January
“The US is about to be hit by another surge of home foreclosures. Foreclosure auctions and new default notices were up sharply in November, suggesting that the backlog of 4 million delinquent home loans could begin moving through the pipeline. Foreclosures have been backed up for more than a year following the ‘robo-signing’ scandal, which led to new safeguards and procedural delays. A new wave of distressed homes hitting the market could push US home prices still lower.”
January 23rd, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Eve, you are correct .Is just we are looking to different time frames .
You look to 1-5 days trade and I am looking to 2-4 months trade .
You use the word countertrend . But why somebody will make a trade on countertrade instead to go with the trend ?
If the trend is down , why buying at 16 and selling at 19 when you can sell at 19 and buyback at 12 ? and going with the trend = less risk .
Of course you can make money on buying hvu in contango in a short time trade . Is just more riskier .
Shouldn’t we reduce the risk in our trades ? if is possible of course .
January 23rd, 2012 at 7:00 pm
Slava,
It sounds like you subscribe Mark’s VR trader.
Which one? Do you think it’s worth it so far?
January 23rd, 2012 at 7:03 pm
#146
“So, what you are both saying to people can be a bit misleading as it sounds like you are trying to say that a person will not make ANY money in HVU while it is in contango – and that, as can be seen by today’s price action in it and in December’s price action in it (while contango was taking place then too) is just not the reality of it!”
No, what I’m saying is if VIX stays flat-ish, or fluctuates a bit up and down and comes back to the same price, a person won’t make money in HVU going LONG. The only way to play above situation is to have impeccable timing and be quick on the trigger to take advantage of the swings – which can be hard. THAT is what I’m saying.
BTW, from Horizons site regarding HVU: “Generally, many investments are made with a long-term horizon in mind since prices historically increase over long periods of time. Historically, sharp spikes in volatility occur only during short periods of time. HUV and HVU can be used for diversification or as a partial hedge against market conditions and it is strongly recommended that these ETFs only be used for short periods of time and are monitored on a daily basis. “
January 23rd, 2012 at 7:08 pm
#150 cont.
Bottom line is – if VIX stays flat-ish, or fluctuates a bit up and down and comes back to the same price, a person won’t make money in HVU going LONG – they will LOSE money, even if VIX comes back to original price.
January 23rd, 2012 at 7:15 pm
Eve , all I want was to say that I do not agree with Libby that hvu will move in a range . Vix will move in a range not hvu .
The difference is the contango . Please look to other etf’s that are affected by contango = hnu.to and hou.to
light sweet crude $wtic in July 2008 = 147 , in February 2009 = 34 ,
hou.to from 225 to 4$ !!!
$wtic back to 114 in April 2011 but hou.to only 10 $
from 147 to 114 is a loss of 22,5 %
from 225 to 10 is a loss of 99,5 %
why ? contango
oil futures were in contango many months
of course , this was in 3 years not in 3 days .
and of course there were many 1-5 days trading countertrade opportunities
But clearly hou is not in a range and will never be .
This all I want to say to Libby that we cannot make the assumption that hvu will move in a range like vix .
Depends on how many days the vix futures are in contango or backwardation .
But making money by buying hvu ? of course it is possible ,no arguing there .
January 23rd, 2012 at 7:32 pm
#152
Rick – something I thought might interest you regarding recent vol. curve – pls. type “Volatility Meltdown continues — DR Volatility Recap 01.23.2012″ in the search engine.
January 23rd, 2012 at 7:36 pm
#153
if it doesn’t work try “DR Volatility Recap” and navigate to today’s date or click home
January 23rd, 2012 at 7:41 pm
Hi Tony,
I’m still working on your options strategy to predict movement. If you have the time I was wondering if you could see if I’m on the right track with Halliburton (HAL). I am using the CBOE website and only looking at the February 12 options. HAL closed at $35.44 today.
There seems to be a range of strong open interest on the calls:
$36 – OI 12,764
$37 – OI 15,152
$38 – OI 2881
$39 – OI 10,930
$40 – OI 14,800
So, I would want to pay close attention when the stock gets to $38 and if it shows signs of falling back I would sell. Thanks for your help!
January 23rd, 2012 at 8:08 pm
Anna , Thank you for that webpage , very useful .
Very risky to buy volatily etfs or etns with a future’s forward curve so steep , deep contango .
Of course S&P 500 can have a small correction to EMA 20 =1285 , VIX will go up , hvu.to will go up .
But because the trend is down , and futures are in contango , I will prefer to sell tvix or vxx or hvu.to on any strength ( maybe EMA 10=14 or EMA 20 =16 )
If somebody will buy hvu.to at 11.60 and sell it at 14 or 16 of course he/she will make money.
January 23rd, 2012 at 8:09 pm
but I will prefer to sell at 14 or 16 and buy it back at 5 in April . Maybe .
January 23rd, 2012 at 8:14 pm
and my stop loss will be when first month vix futures will be higher than second month vix futures and it will stay there . That mean backwardation and the trend will change to the upside .That will be the moment to go long on hvu.to or any other vix etn or etf .
January 23rd, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Hi rick,
No, no, i understand what you’re meaning by contango in post 152 – but to answer your post 148 as to why people would want to buy something as a countertrend “short” term trade rather than a longer term “trend” trade as you wrote that YOU like to do – well, some people just like to trade that way – that’s all – and there’s nothing wrong with that BUT it’s the TIMING of it that needs to be done right in order for their day or several day trade to be successful – and that’s why people have bought HVU – it is because it is expected that a pullback in the market is coming any day now – and when it does, the VIX will go higher – and then so will HVU – just like HVU did today – but it was short lived because the SPX regained its lost ground of today – BUT when the SPX finally does sell down to its support level of around 1260, then HVU will have gone up in that time period from here by about $3 or even more – depending on how many puts are being bought by traders in the market sell off – and the more puts are being bought, the higher up the VIX will go – and then HVU will go up at that time too.
So, that is why some people are buying HVU – not for a HOLD over a month or something – they are simply buying it for a TRADE – over like a week or so – or even a day or 2 days – just until the markets get back down to a support point on a pullback – but it’s the TIMING of the pullback that is challenging – and thus, makes “knowing” when to BUY HVU for a SHORT term trade a challenge too!
So, I hope that answers your question then rick, on why people are buying HVU these days??!
Thanks rick
Eve
January 23rd, 2012 at 8:17 pm
and hvu.to , tvix ,vxx they are volatility etfs and etns and we cannot trade them like stocks . Big difference .TA is different too .
January 23rd, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Eve , I agree with you .
You are looking to short term trades against the trend and I am looking to long term trades with the trend .
I agree with you that we are due for a correction in stocks . That will push hvu.to up !
But TIMING is everything .
And who is buying against the trend has to be fast to pull the plug if the trade is going against them .stopp loss !
Especially when contango is involved .
January 23rd, 2012 at 8:34 pm
for me short term trends against the trend = russian roulette
I can win once , twice but in the end ….
so stop loss and good money management is necessary
after I got burned I will go only with the trend
January 23rd, 2012 at 8:42 pm
#158
Rick – you are so right – the only safe strategy for “trending” HVU is to buy when you notice the futures spreads tighten and (hopefully) enter backwardation (which is quite rare). Selling on strength (at least part of your position) combined with tight losses is prudent; averaging down rarely recommended (unless you KNOW something is going to happen). Otherwise, you can try to rely on S&P TA or timing of other potentially volatile factors – unfortunately my crystal ball broke and I’m having hard time figuring out the markets (thought this rally would run out of steam a while ago…)
January 23rd, 2012 at 9:10 pm
Rick,
Could you provide a reliable website where futures for the Vix may be tracked down on an ongoing basis? This would be useful when trading the Vix going with the trend when the market reverses for good at any given point of time in the future.
If this is something you watch very closely, you could also share your observations when it takes place for the benefit of all who are interested to invest those instruments .
Thank you for pointing out some of the weaknesses inherent to some ETFs. This is certainly useful information.
January 23rd, 2012 at 9:13 pm
CJ, Tawny & Wayne,
Thank you for recommending Chez Piggy in Kingston. Great spot. This is a keeper. We had a wonderful time.
January 23rd, 2012 at 9:24 pm
Martine, this is the website I use on daily basis:
http://www.forexpros.com/indices/us-spx-vix-futures
If you click on contracts tab you’ll get up to date futures prices
also, this page:
http://www.cboe.com/micro/vix/vixfuturesprices.aspx
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:04 pm
Thanks Anna for your info and webpages .
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:05 pm
Anna/TO & Rick
Okay. Thanks for all this information. I am now duly worried and will watch to get out ASAP…
If you have more comments on this very current situation tomorrow… they would be most welcome by me (probably others too)
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Hi all. Here’s a must read for those that are interested in commodities:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/320815-top-commodity-plays-for-february?ifp=0&source=email_the_daily_dispatch
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:23 pm
Hi Tawny – I’m sorry to get you worried…
Didn’t want to freak anyone out or make them dump their positions asap – the posts were meant as a warning regarding long term HVU hold and “waiting for the volatility to happen”. Many people do not know ins & outs of these etfs and get burned badly – they do not behave like any other stocks! Trust me, I’ve been in “average down HVU hell” and it’s not pleasant – sometimes it worked, sometimes it didn’t, but it cost me many sleepless nights (due to overnight market moves and gaps up/down in am).
As Eve said markets are due for correction soon and Europe’s problems seems to be getting worse by the hour (still no deal). Don’t panic – see what tomorrow brings and re-evaluate your situation – right now the futures are down quite a bit all around – should be a morning pop for VIX/HVU.
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Anna ,Tawny , Libby ,Martine ,Eve because you trade hvu.to , probably you know this webpage : http://www.ipathetn.com/product/VXX/#/dollarweights
It shows how much first month vix futures and second month vix futures influence hvu , tvix , vxx ,xiv …..
January 23rd, 2012 at 10:59 pm
It changes every day until vix futures for February will expire in third Wednesday of the month
January 23rd, 2012 at 11:34 pm
2 things I thought I should highlight today:
One: Many of the rates on the forexpros.com site are CFD rates and most of the time they donot exactly match with the values of the indices or the commodities, however they mostly show the correct trend near & long term. For example, DXY rates or the CBOE Vix Index Future rates/values are CFD quotes. CFD prices are derived from the market makers & NOT the exchanges and they are just ‘indicative’ and differ from actual market prices.
So don’t bet your trades based on real time CFD prices, please!
Two: When looking at the options buy/sell on Call/Put side for possible price movement of the underlying, keep in mind that most Hedge Funds & Port. Managers use options to protect their actual positions. So if they are short something they will go out & buy OTM calls to protect their actual/underlying position for portfolio stability. Similarly, if they are long certain thing and doubt some catalyst may cause it to go down/some binary event in calendar etc. they will buy OTM puts for protection.
So, unless there is any BIG Unusual Volume & Price movement associated with it, just looking at the options going green/red means ‘mostly nothing’. Now who is going to ever tell you what Percentage of options are bought/sold for hedging/investment/trading or just pure speculation? Smoke & mirrors!
So it’s just another marker to check, if you want to…just like the ‘OptionPainCalculator’ site…rely heavily/exclusively on these & good chance that you will feel cheated afterwards!
Fundamentals & related sentiments/expectations come first, they get baked into technicals/charts and then comes the options – the betting game further tightened by time frames i.e. weekly,monthly,quarterly etc.
I’ve mentioned here in the past this site that has heck lot of research done on this very subject: schaeffersresearch.com
so pl. don’t take my word for it & go research the data yourselves.
Goodnight all…
January 24th, 2012 at 12:01 am
hvu.to is trending downward, drawing a line under and above price, the lines are downward. RSI 21 trend change at october below 50 line to bearish. Volume by price indicates major support around 8.69, pivot points 7.69 ish. Identfying the trend is one of the first pages of John Murphys book, and the trend is down, trading the oscilos can’t help that.
January 24th, 2012 at 12:28 am
PL and Ania
Thanks ! Very same back to you and you guys” family. All the best wishes!
January 24th, 2012 at 1:15 am
Hi Ania,
I feel badly for having told you on Friday to wait for COG as I didn’t know where it would stop falling (due to not knowing where Nat Gas would stop falling), It could have been bought today though on opening and a quick $3 could have been made. But like I wrote, it will be doing a 2 for 1 stock split in about a week from now – so, you’ll be able to buy it at that point in the $30′s.
Ok, for HBM:
It is overbought on RSI and on stochastics and is at the TOP of the keltner with extreme setting of 3.0 – this means, it’s going to come down from here. So, it may just pull back to the mid keltner which would be to $10.66 – OR as it’s in an uptrend, it may just pull back to the 9 day MA of $10.91 currently. There’s further support though underneath these 2 price points at $10.50. So, look for it to get down to any one of these levels Ania before it moves higher. If it goes below $10.50, then there’s A LOT of support at $10.00 to %10.15. IF it happens to go BELOW $10.00, then it will be headed then most likely to the bottom keltner of around $9.66.
for SCCO:
EXTREMELY overbought!!! Better entry price would be at the mid keltner which is currently at $32.92. There’s also STRONG support at $32.00 to $32.20, and at $31.00 too! IF it hjappens to go below $31, then next support would be the bottom keltner which is currently at $30.44 – and there’s also support below this at $30.00.
Hope this helps Ania
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 1:17 am
Hi Maria,
Nice to see you on the board today
Thank you so much for the info you posted on the US homes market 
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 1:22 am
Good of you to notice, Eve – and you’re welcome! Always great to read your excellent posts, so I’m glad I could contribute.
Maria
January 24th, 2012 at 1:27 am
Hi Anna/TO,
You wrote to rick saying he was BANG ON in what he wrote about contango, backwardation, and making money with HVU – that is why I wrote to both of you with what I did in post 148!
As I wrote in that post, people CAN make money with buying HVU – BUT, they have to time it right! I wrote this EXACT same thing last week too when I wrote that the TIME to REALLY buy HVU for any kind of a LONG trade – as in, longer than a day or 2 to a week – is during the times when the VIX is over 30 and thus there is high volatility in the market. I wrote in those same posts last week (wrote this to Ron/AB) that HVU should NOT be used as a hedge and should not be HELD in an account when there is very low volatility in the markets – you can read my posts from last week to read what I wrote if you’d like to – you’ll then see I’ve NEVER said to go LONG HVU OR to HOLD it for any length of time OTHER THAN in times of HIGH volatility in the markets. So, not sure why you then wrote this in your post at 150:
No, what I’m saying is if VIX stays flat-ish, or fluctuates a bit up and down and comes back to the same price, a person won’t make money in HVU going LONG.
Because YES, a person CAN make money with HVU AND with the VIX being in contango for SHORT term trades – like for a 1 to 5 day trade type of thing – and I proved that in my post 148 when I discussed its price action in December. And I’ve never written about anyone being LONG in HVU in their account (except in times of high volatility – like from July til Oct 2011) – so, again, I don’t know why you seem to be “suggesting” that this is what I’ve been telling people regarding buying HVU!
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 1:28 am
Thank you Maria
I appreciate you saying that too 
Just getting caught up right now on the pposts I missed from earlier tonight – so, that’s why I’ve only just commented now Maria
Thanks Maria
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 1:34 am
Hi rick,
re your posts at 161 and 162:
I completely agree with you!!! Many people though do like to play the countertrend – Slava is one on here that we KNOW likes to do this
so, if their timing is right, this is when a countertrend trade will work for them – but yes TIMING is EVERYTHING!! This is something I wrote actually to Slava about 3 weeks ago – I wrote that TIMING is ALMOST “THE” MOST important thing when it comes to buying and selling ANYTHING – stocks, futures, ETFs ETNs, currencies, commodities, etc. etc. So, yes, I agree with you in saying one has to TIME it just right in order to make money in any countertrend trade – like buying HVU when one expects a pullback in the markets is on the IMMINENT horizon.
Thanks rick
eve
January 24th, 2012 at 1:36 am
I posted this CNBC Pre-Market page the other day, to use for FUTURES FAIR VALUE
http://www.cnbc.com/id/17689937/
Ana
January 24th, 2012 at 1:40 am
HVU
This should be traded much like HOD – HOU, or HND – HNU.
It works well, but really is a day trading ETF, unless a major trend is in.
Ana
January 24th, 2012 at 1:45 am
Eve,
You’re up very late. I’m on the west coast and it’s late enough here, much more so for you. You must get by on very little sleep. How do you stay sharp for trading?
Are you back to 100% health-wise?
Maria
January 24th, 2012 at 1:46 am
Hi gmsa,
So nice to see you tonight
It’s been so long since you’ve posted!!
Thank you too so much for all of that VERY useful info you posted about (post 173). I am sure many on here will find it very helpful – I know I do
Thanks gmsa
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 1:51 am
Hi Maria,
I do get very little sleep – that is true! Sometyimes I’m not sharp at all in the mornings LOL – even though I wake up daily around 6 am, then try to go back to sleep and wake up again at around 7, then watch BNN until around 730 am, then try to sleep some more until around 830 (but it’s usually choppy sleep at best between 6 and 9 am) – so, yes, I go to bed late and am up quite early LOL – even on weekends too!! NOT by choice though LOL – just how my body works these days
(in the ladt few years that is).
No, still not 100% – I’m about 70% is my guestimate. I’m so tired of being sick and tired of coughing like crazy and bringing up phlegm – yet I’ve been told the virus takes between 6 weeks and 3 months to go away!! UGGHH!!! It’s been 4 weeks already!!! So, I can’t wait for it to be gone!!! Thanks for asking Maria
How are you doing these days with the markets? Well, I hope?? Do you work during the day Maria at a regular job too? (like others on here) – or just trade like Lin and Tawny for example (and myself etc.)?
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 1:54 am
Ana,
re this:
Ana Says:
HVU
This should be traded much like HOD – HOU, or HND – HNU.
It works well, but really is a day trading ETF, unless a major trend is in.
Ana
——————————————————-
EXACTLY right Ana!! Thanks for posting – and thanks for posting that link too
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 1:57 am
Ana,
Try this link for all that same info you have in your link (plus other things too in this link) – you don’t have to scroll down the page to see everything that you need to see – it’s all just right there! Someone on here told me about this site in the summer (I wish I could recall the person’s name so I could give THAT person credit for this site
) – I find it really helpful to be able to see things so easily at a mere and quick glance:
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
Hope you find it useful
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 2:09 am
Eve,
That must be so frustrating. I can’t stand feeling unwell for even a few days, so weeks at a time would be crazy-making. I’m so sorry to learn that you’re still in the midst of it. I’ve often wished for a magic wand; if I had one, I’d wave it in your direction and PRESTO! you’d be completely well
Then I’d wave it over my portfolio and PRESTO! no more losing positions. Oh well…
I work from home and do some trading, some days/weeks more actively than others. How am I doing with the markets? Could be better. Like Slava, I have some juniors that seemed like good buys at the time (a year or two ago) and which still haven’t recovered. They are lessons in patience, and in the folly of holding on when trends break. Like others on this board, I have a (small) bit of HVU. ‘Nuff said. The good news is that more and more of the trades I’m making are better considered and executed. I’m much more cautious now, and have – thanks to the great guides on this board (you, Tony, Mick, Ron, Canuck, Gmsa, Lin, and so many more) developed systems that are working much better for me. Some people may be natural traders/investors; I have had a steep learning curve!
Thanks for asking, Eve. I’m off to get some sleep. Hope you sleep well, and long, for a change!
Maria
January 24th, 2012 at 2:18 am
Eve,
Thank you for your help. I use Finviz.com for commodity charts.
I have grown so familiar with this CNBC site, I guess I like to see the green or red for easy reading.
I like to see what the currencies, commodities, volatility and futures are doing in the evening, so this CNBC page has it all.
Also, futures for the Dow are -30, however futures fair value are -35.82.
Ana
January 24th, 2012 at 2:27 am
Eve,
I have a hobby of learning about natural remedies to take care of the body. One item that my children and I would never be without is “Green, Black Walnut Hull Extract.” Yes, I do not know why they call it green, first. You can purchase this at a health food store, it is an anti bacterial, anti viral, anti parasitic and will cure any and all flu.
Hope you get better soon.
Ana
January 24th, 2012 at 2:59 am
Hi Maria,
Thank you Maria – that is very sweet of you to say
I too have many losing trades – mostly due to not selling when i SHOULD be selling – just my own stupidity really as I can easily sell at profits but then i continue to wait and wait and hope it goes higher – and then when it falls, I have no stop loss in place and i end up selling anyway but at a loss. I never used to be like this – in 2009, I never was like this – but in the past year, it has become all too comon with me – BUT, i haven’t traded much either in the past year – if I had, I would have been BIG TIME HUGE ahead of the game just from 2010 and 2011 alone!!! And I am meaning BIG TIME HUGE!!! Like, I almost bought PCLN in July 2010 at $175 (3000 shares) – BUT, the stock went to $173 and it freaked me out as i thought, “oh no, what if i buy and it goes down to $150??” – well, $173 was the low at that time AND was a “W” bottom – EXCEPT, i didn’t KNOW about “W” formations at that time and it was only when I discussed this failure to buy to Ron/BC in Feb 2011 that he told me of the “W” pattern- and boy was i ticked for not having known of that pattern back in july 2010 because that stock went to $560 by July 2011!! So, close to $1.2 million on that trade alone I would have made had i only done what I had in my mind to do in July 2010 of buying it at $175!! So, I’ve made dumb errors too – and many of them – yes, even ME!! But yes, we all learn and we do get better at it! That’s the beauty of it I guess!
Glad though to hear the site has been so helpful for you Maria in your trading these days – that is always so great to hear
Good night Maria
sleep well 
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 3:01 am
Hi Ana,
Thank you so much for that info on the anti everything pill LOL – I am going to go to a health store and look into buying it now!! I hope it will work even retroactively for me!! So thank you so much for that tip Ana
Good night
Sleep well – I’m off 
eve
January 24th, 2012 at 3:43 am
Eve,
3000 shares, 1.2Mil???? You sure are a high roller. I’d be tremendously overjoyed if I were to rake in 1/1000th of that on my trades!