ShareThis(Editor’s Note: Mr. Vialoux is scheduled to appear today on BNN Television at approximately 4:20 PM EST).
Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday January 24th
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 8 points in pre-opening trade. Traders are responding to a breakdown in talks on Greek sovereign debt. The S&P 500 Index is expected to open below short term support at 1,309.89 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average is expected to open below short term support at 12,665.87.
Fourth quarter earnings poured in overnight. Reporting companies included Texas Instruments, Dupont, Coach, Regions Financial, EMC, Quest Diagnostics, Harley Davidson, Travelers, Baker Hughes, Air Products, Verizon, Johnson & Johnson, AK Steel, Peabody Energy, Cooper Industries, McDonald and Kimberly Clark. Responses to reports were mixed.
Molson Coors eased $0.43 to $43.57 after UBS downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral. Target was reduced from $46 to $45.
Merck added $0.26 to $39.03 after ISI Group initiated coverage on the stock with a Buy rating. Target is $45.
Bed Bath & Beyond added $0.55 to $62.56 after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.
Barrick Gold eased $0.60 to $46.35 after RBC Capital downgraded the stock from Outperform to Sector Perform. Target is $62.
Potash Corp. eased $0.69 to $44.87after JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral. Target is $48.
Texas Instruments added $0.95 to $42.82 despite a downgrade by Kaufman Brothers from Buy to Hold.
Technical Watch
Molson Coors Brewing Co. (NYSE: TAP) – $43.57 fell 1.0% after UBS downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral. The stock has a positive, but deteriorating technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. However, strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-December, short term momentum indicators are trending down and seasonal influences are negative until mid-March. Preferred strategy is to accumulate on weakness closer to its 50 day moving average at $41.77.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/clip_image001111.png "clip_image001[1]")
Molson Coors Brewing Company (NYSE:TAP) Seasonal Chart
Harley Davidson Inc. (NYSE:HOG) – $42.82 added 2.3% after reporting higher than expected fourth quarter results. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since mid-October. Seasonal influences recently turned positive. However, short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking. Preferred strategy is to accumulate on weakness closer to its 50 day moving average at $38.31.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/clip_image003111.png "clip_image003[1]")
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image204.png "clip_image004[1]")
Barrick Gold Corp. (NYSE:ABX;TSE:ABX) – $46.35 U.S. eased 1.3% after RBC Capital downgraded the stock from Outperform to Sector Perform. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is neutral. The stock recently found resistance at its 50 and 200 day moving averages near $48.26. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index has been negative since the beginning of September. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Seasonal influences turn negative at the beginning of February. Better opportunities are available elsewhere.
Barrick Gold Corp. (TSE:ABX) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image006[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image457.png "clip_image006[1]")
Mark Leibovit’s Daily Gold Comment
More information on Mark’s services is available at
http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp
GOLD – ACTION ALERT – BUY
Silver continued to push higher yesterday, but so did gold, silver, palladium, platinum and copper – though copper was unable to push above Friday’s 3.8340 recovery peak. Silver touched 32.91, inching toward my targeted 33-35 range. I am giving the metals the benefit of the doubt and remain on my near-term BUY signal. As you know, I’m in the camp that calls for the breaking the COMEX/CME’s back! We need to expose them for the thieves that they are! I am, of course, referring to the phoney ‘paper market’ which is utilized by large market players like JP Morgan to suppress the metals markets, especially gold and silver. I’ve cited this example before, but it’s well worth repeating: On average, 750 million ounces of silver are mined each year. On average, 34,000 contracts are traded on any given day. With 5000 ounces per contract that equates to 170 million ounces of silver traded each day or, believe it or not, 34 billion ounces per year. According to my calculator that equates to a 45 to 1 ratio, assuming 200 trading days in each year. Mind you, this is only the CME/COMEX. It does not include any of the silver ETFs or trading on the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA). Imagine if a large percentage buyers of silver futures suddenly decided to demand delivery of the physical silver. Folks, it won’t be pretty. A short squeeze of monumental proportions would ensue. Of course, the vermin (that’s what they are!) at the CME/COMEX might try and temper things by dramatically raising margin
requirements or even closing the exchange, but that may be too late to save them. My admonition is not addressed against the entire futures industry, but they are still indirectly responsible for permitting this to occur and not demanding the end of this practice indicting those responsible. This goes for individuals such as Jaime Dimon and the CFTC. Meanwhile, there are just too many ‘bad apples’ – with some of those apples so far up the tree we may never be able to reach them and ‘pluck them’.
Early Warning Sign by the Dow Jones Industrial Average?
Following is a 60 minute chart showing that short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels. A move below 12,665.87 will trigger additional selling.
Tech Talk’s Weekly ETF Column at www.globeandmail.com
(Published yesterday at
Following is full text:
Investing in Sector ETFs during U.S. Presidential Election Years
Some sector ETFs are better to own than others during U.S. Presidential Election years. For the most part, sector ETFs follow the same pattern as in average years. The exceptions are Technology and Materials, sectors that significantly underperform after the month of May. On average, the Technology sector lost 4.0% and the Materials sector fell 6.0% by the end of the year.
That’s considerably worse than the average annual performance when all years are factored in; in this case, the Materials sector averages a gain of 7.0 per cent and the Technology sector averages a gain of 12.0 per cent.
Price trends for most sectors were consistent during the first five months of the year. All sectors except Technology recorded minor losses from the beginning of January to the first week in March. Thereafter, all sectors recorded gains until the end of May.
Best performing sectors during Presidential election years were Consumer Staples, Energy and Financial Services. The Financial Services sector was notably stronger late in the year following the Presidential election on the first Tuesday in November. On average, Consumer Staples gained 6.0%, Energy improved 6.2% and Financial Services added 9.0% during the year.
The easiest way to invest in U.S. sectors is through select sector SPDRs. All are Exchange Traded Funds that trade actively on U.S. exchanges. Following is a list of available select sector SPDRs:
Following are seasonality charts showing relative seasonal trends for the Consumer Staples, Energy and Financial Services sectors during a U.S Presidential year based on data that first became available from Standard & Poor’s in 1990.
Don Vialoux is the author of free daily reports on equity markets, sectors,
commodities and Exchange Traded Funds. . Daily reports are
available at http://www.timingthemarket.ca/. He is also a research analyst for
Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are his
personal views although they may be reflected in positions or transactions
in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management.
The World Outlook Financial Conference
Friday, February 10 and Saturday, February 11
Westin Bayshore Hotel, Vancouver, B.C.
Mr. Vialoux is presenting.
Here is the link:
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Natural gas potentially cheaper than coal”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/01/23/natural-gas-potentially-cheaper-than-coal/
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Pharmaceuticals Industry Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC January 23rd 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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Discussions from the Tech Talk Forum:
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January 24th, 2012 at 9:30 am
Good morning all Lets start with Eve
you sold at 173 thinking it could move lower,
back in 07 it when it was trading at 67$ while csco was at 30
In the after market I was listening to csco earnings and pcln earnings and I saw pcln jump 10$ while csco jumped something like 1$ I said to myself ahhh this one should come back to 67 so I’ll invest 10K in csco and wait for pcln, what a bad bet that was,
as pcln never came back, and doubled in less then a year while the most upside on csco was 34 I sold csco at a loss of 300$ before we saw it fall of the cliff,
right now my 10K would be worth 7K in csco while 10K in pcln would be worth 75k
January 24th, 2012 at 9:32 am
One of the most important techniques in successful investing is to “know” your stocks. This means keep a basket of stocks on your watch list and learn how they behave in different types of markets, at different times in the cycle, on open and close, when yields rise or fall, etc.
It takes years…. but after a while you will get to notice when a stock gets very cheap or too expensive, when to take profits and when to buy cheap, regardless what pundits say.
The TSX is probably a better place to do this as there are fewer stocks to track… much easier to focus on. The US markets are very broad, so except for the major players, more difficult, too many distractions.
Just because the TSX is a smaller basket it doesn’t mean one can’t make tons of money there over time… regardless of its composition and overweight in commodities and financials.
For example, recently POW and PWF had yield of well over 5%, historically this is a rare event. Upon research one would find that historically they have been trading recently at a heafty discount to NAV… they have moved up since, as expected.
January 24th, 2012 at 9:35 am
CJ
Why tell slava to short at 82$ and not wait for a confirmation of the 4/9 and indicators have not rolled over,
it got away from the 4MA its a short term trade and the options are simply stating that 82 could be the top.
January 24th, 2012 at 9:47 am
Hi Randy,
re your comment last night:
thank you – except, i didn’t make the buy on that stock when I thought to – so, i didn’t make that money unfortunately – BIG unfortunately
Thanks though Randy
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 9:49 am
Tawny,
There you go – you’re up now on HVU – and if the markets sell down further to support, you’ll be ahead of your avg buy in price
you were just a bit early on buying that thing tho Tawny – so, just sometyhing to consider in the future 
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 9:51 am
Slava,
Good going on that TD short yestterday
Looks like RY would have been an even better short though – and that makes sense as it is the bank that has risen the most since December. But good going anyway on TD 
LULU’s coming down finally too for you I see – FINALLY 
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 9:56 am
Eve
Re #5 – thanks for the comfort on HVU. It will have to go quite far for me to make up losses… but I guess I will be happy with that (if it does get there near term) as opposed to actually making a profit. We will see. However, one day this whole market is expected to belly-up and I hope to be sshort it at the time.
January 24th, 2012 at 9:58 am
Hi Paul. AXR.to continues to be rated a Speculative Buy with an $8.50 target at Canaccord due to the production beat.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:02 am
I am probably the ONLY ONE on this blog that was not aware, but there now exists a TSX 60 VIX which I surmise started last fall!!!
January 24th, 2012 at 10:08 am
Jimmy boy
now about hal on the options front. before we look at it lets take a look at the charts.
on the Fibonacci pivots we have r1 at 37.14 and r2 at 38.93 and the 150MA at 39.89
now about the MAs 4 to 100 are all cramed in a bunch. between 34.3 and 35.8.
now if we look at macd only concern is the H bars seem to be in negative territory. W%R peek started to be lower then previous peek.
now lets look at the options…
right now they are buying the feb 35-34-33 puts so they are protecting their assets.
so right now I would wait to buy I would start picking at it below 33.
now dont forget it could decide to retest oct 27-28$ low.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:10 am
Hi tony,
No no, I didn’t SELL at $173 – I never BOUGHT it as it went to $173 when my buy in price IN MY HEAD was to buy it at $175 – so when it went below my buy in price, I never bought it as i got scared that it would then go further down than just that $173. I feel your pain though tony with losing out on PCLN – just as I did too
thanks tony
eve
January 24th, 2012 at 10:16 am
Hi Eve
At least we are here to tell our stories and cry together on the potential profit we missed out on.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:19 am
Eve,
the pain is missing out its when it drops and never comes back and you have hope it will come back but decides it wants to simply die on you.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:22 am
Thanks for the help Tony! I actually bought HAL at $34.70 yesterday, but am nervous about holding it longer term. In terms of a short term trade, on most charts the 4MA is starting to runaway (in a good way) from the 9 and 18MAs. I will see how it plays out throughout the day and will probably sell for a small gain hoping to buy back later.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:23 am
oops
the pain is NOT missing out….
January 24th, 2012 at 10:29 am
tony,
TOTALLY agree!!
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 10:29 am
Jimmy
I think you might have missed something about running away its not the 4 compared to the 9 or 18 that want to look at, but price compared to the 4MA like today as smart trader would have bought the open at 35.15 as the 4MA was at 35.90 and would expect it to move close to it, before selling out. for a 75 cents profit on 300 shares nice little 225$
January 24th, 2012 at 10:29 am
Hi Ania,
Wrote an answer for you on last night’s board re HBM and SCCO.
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 10:30 am
Michael, thank you for #8. I’ve got 2000 shares bought on avg ~$6.60 and will continue to hold. As you pointed out last year, Axr periodically runs up to ~$8 which is what I’m waiting for again. Nice to see SLW moving up also. I hope that is good for you again. On another topic, I’d like to deploy $15k (~50%) cash in my nieces RESP (the other $15k in BA.to, HSE.to & HAC.to). Any suggestions ? She’s 9 so the $s not needed for some time. Thanks. Paul
January 24th, 2012 at 10:32 am
Jimmy
when you compare the 4/9/18, what you are looking for is a cross of the lower MA above the higher MA to give you an indication as it is time to enter the trade long term.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:35 am
Tony,
Sorry for the confusion! I shouldn’t have used that terminology. I definitely agree entering this morning would have been a good idea. I’ve been following the price against the 4MA. But, I was under the impression that as long as the price is following the 4MA you ride it while the 4MA (and the price) are above the 9/18MAs. It is when the 4MA or price drops below these MAs that you want to get out. That was what I meant the 4MA running away from the 9/18. Please let me know if I misunderstood, I’m still a rookie at this stuff.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:37 am
Michael, Btw, I hope to make it to Whistler this winter. If I do, on my way through Squamish, as much Howe Sound Honey Nut you can drink is on me. As a minimum I’ll be there to climb this summer. Same offer. Thanks again for your watchful help, Paul
January 24th, 2012 at 10:43 am
Jimmy
don’t worry there is so much to know that at times I wonder how traders go about it.
do you use the fundies, the upgrades, TA, options, shorts. you see for me a number is a number. so fundies in my brain it doesn’t work out look at cn 1.34 Est got 1.40$/Share and i think they intend to increase div, expect 10% rise on eps and still they are getting slaughtered.
shorts i have no clue other than to pay 10K a month to bloomberg how to get this number.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:54 am
Paul here is the thing I have learned from Suze Orman. about the stock market as long as your time horizon exceeds 10Yrs you keep your money diversified they way you want it to be diversified. Now when you enter this 10Yrs then the strategy is different every year take 1/10th of capital and gains and invest it in a safe play such as money market gic, you can go into bonds etfs but I think they are to volatile. look waht will happen to greek bondholders they will get 75% of their investment I really don’t feel confortable with this strategy. or you could go with prefered stocks such as a bmo.l.to, where capital is safe and should not fluctuate unless they start rising interest rate.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:56 am
When trades agaist me, I usually cut loss right away. I will never and ever hold any loss in my account.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:58 am
Hi Tawny: Now its frustrating me holding this eft, dips get bought everytime so the market turns around. Looking at the pattern the last couple days I could have sold early morning and buy it back later thus reducing my loss. Also, buying some long etfs or stocks preferably. Are you thinking of selling.
January 24th, 2012 at 11:01 am
Kelly K
Before I forget,
About TRP heard this morning that keystone project is not out of the question its just a matter of where it will go through
US president said it had to consider the impact and blablabla… and looks like its holding nicely to the 200MA
January 24th, 2012 at 11:03 am
re, SU.to
it has been around 200 ma. So, I would take prifit. Until next step long or short again.
January 24th, 2012 at 11:04 am
Lin: Excellent strategy, but sometimes we hold loss hoping it would turn around, as you know stocks can whipsaw you, the moment you sell it turns around. Obviously you are wiser to know when to exit. Waiting for SPY 132-134. Sent you note last Friday in partial Chinese with the help of the internet. Have a great day.
January 24th, 2012 at 11:13 am
Paul. Do you manage your entire family’s fortune?! Since this is for the long term, and if you’re not really looking into trading it, I like the thought of ETFs. XIC.to when it gets a bit cheaper is a better bet than the big-cap XIU. I also, as everyone knows, like the gold and silver story (CEF.A.to or ZCP.to) when the seasonality is starting (so not while we’re closer to the end). The neat thing about this account is that you can buy when things are oversold and sell when they are overbought without any time parameters (except the 10 years).
Too bad Howe Sound doesn’t have any common shares! They’re making a killing off of me! Looking forward to seeing you sometime this year. Until then, maybe I’ll abstain so that I get real thirsty!
January 24th, 2012 at 11:21 am
lin #25 Entering a trade I am usually charged the “ask” price (that makes me already in a loss situation unless stock moves up immediately) Add the trading fee and I am in negative territory until stock rises considerably more. Hate that red!
January 24th, 2012 at 11:56 am
Hi Eve,
Thank you for your insights re HBM.to and SCCO.
You don’t need to feel bad for COG, this market is very unpredictable and I will have the opportunity to buy it in a week or so.
Have a great day, Ania
January 24th, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Tony, I was wondering if you could critique my (very quick) CNR read:
On the daily charts:
Price has dropped well below the 4ma. Looks like the 4ma is about to go through the 18ma as well. RSI is approaching oversold. MACD histogram has negative bars.
Pivot points show that the stock is likely to test support at $76.09. The 38 and 50MAs don’t really seem like much help. The 100, 150, 200MAs suggest support starting at $75.70
On the 5min chart:
The price is sticking close to the 4MA which is below the 9 and 18. MACD bars are starting to turn up so the price may move up a bit today.
Options:
Using the Montreal Exchange, the most open interest is on the calls at $82 suggesting the price will move higher after testing support.
Conclusion:
The stock will move a little higher this afternoon, but then retreat to test support either later today or tomorrow. After this, there is a good chance it starts to move higher. Good entry point would be in the $76 range.
January 24th, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Hi Tony,
I sold POT @ $42.70 and I feel very bad that I sold it so low. What’s your outlook for POT.to for re-entry point.
Thank you, Ania
January 24th, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Hi Canuck2004,
I was wondering if you could give me some dividend stocks for a long term hold and what would be a good entry point. I appreciate your insights, Ania
January 24th, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Anna/TO & Rick,
I just read some of yesterday’s commments. Thanks for those websites re. Vix. Very useful information. It is appreciated.
January 24th, 2012 at 12:18 pm
Hi Eve and Tony,
Do you think this market is going to pullback now or go up a bit further before correcting? The $spx (and $tsx) are fighting to stay above their 4ma’s so far today.
I sold some of my AVL.to at 3.16 last week thinking it would pullback to the downtrend line and I could buy it back. It has sort of worked out but I’m hesitating to buy back cause I’m wondering if a broad market correction is about to occur. Any thoughts?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVL.TO&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p67368494359&a=252816881
January 24th, 2012 at 12:18 pm
Michael, my heart stopped on the word “abstain” until I realized and hoped you must be just kidding. You’re kidding right ? Pls don’t do anything crazy ! ‘Fortune’ sounds huge. More like savings. Like many, I made big mistakes in and after 2008 wrt small caps that still requires lots of recovering from. My own RRSP I gave over to a investment manager 10 yrs ago next month. Due to 2008-11, he’s done even worse, w/return of ~2%/yr after large fees. I’m planning to move it or take it back in-house again this spring though haven’t yet decided what. Thanks very much for the suggestions for the RESP ! I will look at these closely. Any target to move into XIC.to ? It has the sound of a buy in October and hold til May.
January 24th, 2012 at 12:29 pm
Kay re #26
HVU is still reacting to the upside even though it is not up as much as the VIX on percentage basis. I am going to hold on and observe.
Does anyone think that market players believe the Fed is going to do a QE3?
What I find somewhat confusing is that hte markets are moving appoarently on very low volume. Is it the pro players or the sheeple who are buying into this market?
Several of the WISE-ONEs (?)are expecting a pull back and grave outlook for the year???
January 24th, 2012 at 12:30 pm
Tony, thanks for #24. Ms Orman seems a smart cookie. Would be interesting to hear a discussion with her and some of you bright lights here. I always thought that you could do better in the long term if you also did well in the short term. I guess the problem there is that short term mistakes so easily wipe out safer longer term gains. My thoughts on the RESP were to find 6-7 solid companies and just hold them. I spend more of my time than I’d like fussing about investments. Let me know when you and Michael and Eve are planning to open your fund.
January 24th, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Paul, abstaining from beer will never be in my plans. I’m in sunny Arizona right now where the awesome microbrew flows…sometimes directly into me!
As for XIC, if Don is right about a correction, I would like to see it drop to around $18.85, where it will close the gap from December-January.
January 24th, 2012 at 12:33 pm
#35-Ania
Right now….TGA.UN, PWF, CUF.UN, ERF. I own them all.
TGA.UN: Apt. REIT, defensive the most stable type in REIT universe. Smaller cap and cheaper than CAR.UN. Fine in here…watch for an entry point.
PWF: if yield above 5%, has just made a big move so should consolidate a bit, wait for an entry point.
CUF.UN: has just made a large aquisition and recent share issue, merger will keep it weak for a while but merger will be accretive to bottom line and will give it a national footprint above its previous Quebec centric holdings. Well managed, principals hold lots of stock, family controlled, good yield.
ERF.UN: just made large share issue, about 50/50 O&G, more NG than oil… will be weaker until NG recovers some time in the future. Because of recent large share issue stock will remain weak for a few weeks/months…but way undervalued and good yield in here. Near term upside 26-27ish… but when NG recovers, could be a double. However waiting for NG may take years… several years. In mean time, getting paid monthly. Ugly chart but…. nice yield. One of the oldest O&G trusts, now a corp and dual listed in USA…
As always, do your own research, look at charts, and keep amounts to 2.5 to max 5% of portfolio…. that way you can’t get hurt.
January 24th, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Tawny,
I’m not sure if you read the ‘stocktiming’ email today, but it seems positive for you.
January 24th, 2012 at 12:36 pm
Hi Kay. I guess we hear from the Fed tomorrow, but I wouldn’t expect QE3. There’s no reason to; the market is up, housing seems to be recovering (I was told that inventory is at its lowest since 2005 in Phoenix!), and employment is moving in the right direction. I think that the big risk tomorrow is a confirmation that the Fed will stay out of the market, which could cause a short term sell off.
January 24th, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Jimmy – #43
Thanks for that. Darn, I have not got my mail yet today from “stocktiming” – guess they are sent out in som e sort of order, or my server is slower.
Looking forward to reading it since you say it may have positive news for me.
January 24th, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Hi Canuck2004,
I appreciate your insights. I will keep a watch list for possible entry point to these stocks. Have a wonderful day, Ania
January 24th, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Tech Talk says this morning that if the Dow goes below 12,666 it will trigger more selling… it has been below that number, but has not triggered any great sell off, yet. But we are not near the close yet either.
January 24th, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Hi Tawny,
I don’t think there will be a QE3 now but that’s just a guess.
Which “wise ones” have you heard predicting a pullback? The $spx is definitely overbought although all moving averages are pointing up. I think it could pullback to 1285 then 1260. There are signs that momentum is weakening and it’s rolling over but it’s not confirmed yet. We should see 2 closes below the 4ma and the 4ma curl downward. It may be starting today??
January 24th, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Hi Kay,
re the SPX and re QE3, I wrote this yesterday to mick/nv,
Eve Says:
January 23rd, 2012 at 2:38 pm
hi mick/nv,
i don’t think the r2 pivot (1310) though will act as support – as we went above it on friday and today too but yet today, we were also below it at 1309. So, I don’t think that will act as a support point. Yes, I think that when Ben speaks on wednesday, I think he will say no QE 3 is coming – and why would there be any QE3 right now anyway when the markets are rallying – not pulling back significantly like they were in 2010 which is why ben announced QE2 at that point and made the markets rally hard! So, i don’t expect he’ll be announcing a QE3 on wednesday and in fact, i think he’ll say NO QE for the foreseeable future – and i think THAT will ultimately cause the markets to come down – because right now (from what I have read in several sources), the markets are EXPECTING a QE announcement – and that’s why they’re buying up the markets – (buy the rumour), so when the NEWS comes out on Wed of REALITY , I think that will cause the markets to sell off – especially if he says something about bad headwinds still there in housing or from Europe or from china slowing down etc – if he says things are looking better and better these days and that’s why no QE will even be NEEDED, then I can see “potentially” the markets going up on that kind of news – but still, the saying still comes to my mind of “BUY the rumour and SELL the NEWS!”. So, I think they’ll “sell” the news on wednesday – regardless of what the news is!
——————————————————————————-
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Tawny: For what it is worth, I do not think Ben will announce QE3 tomorrow. It is too soon. It may be the last arrow in the quiver. It will need to be timed for the Presidential election. Although some stats have improved, this is s/t only. The market is treading on thin volume and I would not doubt that the primary dealers are trying to suck the retail investor in. However, it looks like the retail investor is not getting sucked in, and is more comfortable with staying in cash. A correction will happen and may accelerate tomorrow after he speaks. The GDP on Friday could also be a market mover. I would not be buying at these levels. Once we see a decline of 3 to 5%. it may be time to catch the trend back up. My 2 cents.
January 24th, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Jimmy and Kay
I didn’t get the e-mail get but I pulled up the report and here it is
http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Problem is though, that the HVU is not behaving the same as the VIX
January 24th, 2012 at 12:54 pm
OOPS! re #51 – that report is from Jan. 18th.
SORRY!
January 24th, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Hi Tawny,
You’ve got mail
eve
January 24th, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Re #51 and #52
Here is today’s stocktiming report
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
January 24th, 2012 at 12:57 pm
For what it’s worth:
I agree with Ray-Kitchener in what he wrote at post 50
Thanks ray for that post
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Slava
there is good news on osk.to, today vol 10000 contracts for july at 14.0 so hold to it and you shall be rewarded.
January 24th, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Ok about QE3,
I am in the camp he did it already under the name “operation twist”
January 24th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Paul, Ania, Jimmy
Sorry didn’t get to anwser you but just been called my 1yr old is feverish so must go and pick him up at daycare.
January 24th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
I agree, I don’t think Benny will do a qe tomorrow, the sheeple are awakening to their game, partly through Ron Paul, and would lose it. The sheeple will blame Obummer for the inflation that would result and it would threaten his re-election. The FED has become a bit of a political hot potato at the moment so they need to be careful here, and besides, the economy is doing really well right now (sarcasm) as per the fixed stats that come out of the US government.
The FEd will need to ave it’s last volly for when things look really bad and the sheeple are about to revolt.
US politics….the best soap opera out there!!!
PS Tawny, I sold my position this morning but haven’t lost interest in this vehicle.
January 24th, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Michael: You are too kind, thanks for the update, but I am reading and hearing so much of this pullback that I won’t believe until I see it, very frustrating even though I know nothing goes up in a straight line. I thought about switching to some longs but most are O/B. Enjoy the sunshine, I looked at Florida during the holidays, there are lots of bargains, homes that were selling for $500,000 now under $200,000.
Eve and Tawny: Thanks for your comments and updates, much appreciate.
January 24th, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Buying house down there is very good idea!
January 24th, 2012 at 1:43 pm
My question – does anyone believe the Fed will annouce a QE3, was not expressed correctly. I don’t expect them to and I know that none of us on this board believe it.
What I meant to express was that the market has been moving up and supposedly there is rumour out there (though I have not heard it) that the Fed will announce QE3. So, I was really trying to say “who the heck does believe it enough to move the markets higher.” But given the low volume I have to agree with Ray that it is not the retail investor, but the “pros” suckering some people into “believe all is well.”
I am still not sure that I have e xpressent what I want to say – did not sleep well last night – and that has nothing to do with the market
Just like that sometimes – can’t sleep with an overactive brain. 
January 24th, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Libby, Kay and others re HVU
Libby, you took a neat one-day profit in HVU – good for you!
Please look at Marty Chenard’s report in #54 and his falling wedge for the VIX.
The time line in this report, breakout beginning yesterday and probability for a breakout will increase as time moves toward Feb 8th. ON THE VIX. which of course is oppositite for the market. He also says that the success r ate on this technical pattern is 90%.
January 24th, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Eve and Michael, shorting TD yesterday was a good idea (thanks for your blessings), now I just need to decide when to cover (this is the toughest part for me). Do you think TD is likely to come down to mid keltner?
For those who don’t short, buying HFD.to is always a good short-term trading vehicle whenever Cdn financials get overbought.
January 24th, 2012 at 1:50 pm
One more thing. Spell check as you type – is not working for me on this site.. Is this a setting on my end or is everyone experiencing this?
January 24th, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Tawny
I didn’t sleep well either…someone told me it gets worse with age…great!
I understood what you meant about QE…and yes, the slow melt up is the smart money trying to sucker in the dumb (retail) investors…totally agree.
Also agree with Tony re Operation Twist.
I sometimes wish I had been around before the markets were manipulated but then again, maybe they always were.
January 24th, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Hmm.. Perhaps the run up in US restaurant stocks is over for now. McDonald’s exceeded all analysts’ expectations yet the stock is at -2.23% this morning. I hope CMG is next!
January 24th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Lin: I personally would hold off buying a house in the US at this time. I truly believe, the US has not yet hit bottom. Foreclosures are increasing (held up for over a year), plus the huge increase in money supply will at some time in the near future push inflation higher. This in turn pushes interest rates higher, and housing prices down. Kicking the can down the road only inflates the short term. Intermediate to longer term, the chickens will come to roost. That is when to buy. I also believe that we here in Canada are not immune to what has happened in the US. Watch our housing market over the next few years. Cash is king.
January 24th, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Same goes for CNR, interesting.. Best ever quarterly revenue, dividend increase, exceeded expectations yet the stock is down almost -4%. CP is at only -1.62%… I can’t wait for it to have a meaningful pullback.
January 24th, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Libby: To a degree the markets have always had some type of market manipulation, however it is much more pronounced since 2008 / 2009 crash. QE, the flash crash, sub prime, bailouts, etc. Free market? far from it.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Slava: Were you able to find some IOC shares to short? I can’t get any from RBC.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Hi Slava. If we’re in for a correction, I could see TD coming down to its mid-Keltner or lower. But over the last month, the 9-day MA has been pretty good support (currently around $78.50), so would want to re-evaluate at that time.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:06 pm
Ray, I can sometimes get IOC through Itrade but I have no margin left.. too many losing short positions in my Itrade account
January 24th, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Michael, thanks for TD.
tony, thanks for OSK.to. I sold 1/2 of my position above $12. Looking to reenter at some point.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:08 pm
I don’t know how CP manages to hold on to this level with CN at -4% on great earnings.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:09 pm
Ray-Kitchener
I am interested in your statement “Watch our housing market over the next few years.” Is this a provincial prediction?
Ana
January 24th, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Ray-K
re #68 NTR
Hi Ray… like to see you here from time to time. Still trading up ande down on Oil?
Re housing and expectation that the market will go down in Canada. Do you still own your home? curious?
January 24th, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Hi, Ray
Thanks for input. House in China is very overvuled… feeling that Chinese Currency might be one day 1yuan=1 dollars…
January 24th, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Slava,
re MCD and CNR:
I’ve written about this kind of thing several times in the past – if you see a stock running up in price just before they report earnings, then the stock will sell off when earnings are reported – regardless of whether it’s a beat or a miss. Look at VMW yesterday for example – it pulled bacvk by over $2 yesterday and it reported earnings today or last night and the stock jumped up by over $7 at one point today. This is what happens with stocks – ESPECIALLY with Cdn bank stocks – you want to see them pull back BEFORE earnings annpouncements so that they have room to run up in price if they beat earnings etc. – IF you see them run up in price and getting to overbought or close to overbought just before they announce earnings, then when they announce, they’ll sell off – regardless of beating or missing. This happens ALL the time with stocks! MCD and CNR have been running up of late and making new highs – then they announce and beat estimates BUT the stocks sell down – it’s: “SELL” the news! Happens ALL the time!
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Ray-Kitchener,
Are you short or long crude for tomorrow? That is crude oil.
Thank you in advance.
Ana
January 24th, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Eve, thanks for #79. I belive CP is reporting today.. need to double check. Too busy at work to follow the markets today!
January 24th, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Ana: Canada wide. Our housing market is at a peak and there are concerns that this bubble may pop soon. Low interest rates propel people to extend themselves. There are so many people who are living pay cheque to pay cheque with little savings, equity and huge mortgages. The average salary/wage increase over the years has been in the 2%-2.5% range (unless you are a CEO). Hosing prices have averaged 5-6% and in some markets, more (Vancouver / Toronto, etc.) If one looses their job or when rates increase, we are going to have issues. No different than the US. It will not go up forever as the cheer leaders keep saying.
As for crude Oil, I am long. Sold my short today, however will take a 1/2 position as a hedge. I have been playing both sides, and many times within the same day.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Hi Slava,
In addition to Eve’s info, CNR could be reacting to the couple of accidents in Edmonton area over the past weekend.
Pat
January 24th, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Paul
you are right to say you want 6-7 stocks good stocks. you want things that even if there is a glitch one quarter will not be affected by it competition, or better yet sticks to its products and doesn’t redefine itself just like Rimm this to me is the next Nokia. I have the best solution but they must want to listen and listen carefully, every analyst agree on one thing RIMM has the best security app, they should make it available on other handset as an app and a fee, by doing this they could
1 generate revenue,
2 just as appl used the ipod to come back from the dead, and people came to the mac world (imac, iphones, ipads) it would make buyers of new mobile devices more compelled to own a Rimm handset.
this being was the intention of this post but what type of companies to look for
companies whos have long term prospects,
such as the ag sector, some miners, area whos focus is not today but tomorrow.
just like rimm was 20yrs ago.
POT(small div but high growth) or TNH around 8%, Westshore terminals in the 8% westport innovations.
will recall a guest on market call back in feb of 09 he said even if bmo trades at 28$ for the next 5 yrs, its 2.8$ dividend is 10% per year your portfolio will have increased by 50% at the end of 5 years. and that my man is what you call great investment.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:42 pm
Paul
don’t necessary recommend buying them today would wait for a pullback.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Tawny: We do own our house at this time, however we will be selling in the next year. I want to sell at the peak. When the dust settles, we will get back in at the bottom. The sub prime did not collapse housing prices in the US. Low interest rates, no $ down, loss of job & low pay increases relative to housing price increases. We were immune to that as our bankers did a better job. Nevertheless, our unemployment is creeping up, government austerity measures are floating around, GDP is shrinking, etc. Time will tell, however buy low sell high.
Oil – yes.
January 24th, 2012 at 2:52 pm
Ania,
pot I think it will retest the 38-39$ low, but as I have mentionned to paul previously.
this is a long term hold I currently own it and I know I need to eat when time comes. and so everyone around the world.
January 24th, 2012 at 3:02 pm
# 84 follow up
Just to add when not sure of a company vs its peers, you could always go with an etf,
doens’t work 100% but you would be immune if the company you are compelled to gets into trouble, here is an example
recall a few years ago, cameco had problem with a mine so during that time price dropped as for its competitors they continued on to their path so you would be immune in this case, but in 2011 the Uranium stocks were badly hurt due to the earthquake so then yes you would be hurt has much.
January 24th, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Ray-K
NTR #86
Selling at the peak sounds very good, but moving is such a hassle. So you rent for a couple of years. If you and your wife can bear the upheaval it is an excellent strategy. Personally, I have (as I always do) put a lot f TLC and a bit of money into our home… and a lot into the garden. Giving that all up again is too much to bear. BUT, I may have to because I cannot imagine going through another Autumn of inhumane sinus headaches (from september til frost) due to fungal spores around here. But I cannot imagine where to go. Perhaps some foreign country where the cost of living is low, the weather is wonderful all year and medical care is excellent but cheap. So dream on…
Will you stay in Kitchener.? You are retired I believe?
January 24th, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Hi Tony Would you please comment on mg.to. where do you see pullback. I own it around $48. Price is up from 4ma,9ma and 18ma. Thanks.
January 24th, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Eve
You have a new e-mail
January 24th, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Jimmy will get back to you after this post.
Ron/AB
here was a chart I did mid dec, on the tsx,
ok just realised w%r(3) and not 7, but 7 is at just below 50.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TSX&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p59577556842&a=250541592
12003-12045 there is major resistance with the MAs and pivot is at 11897. I think for now this is my target on the tsx,
January 24th, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Hi Slava,
Thanks for the heads up on CP.to.
I’ve shorted this just now at 70.50. Short term trendline from Sept broke, with negative divergence and MACD and SSTO rolled over on the daily chart. Not sure if I want to stick around to play the earnings on Thursday though. Have to see what happens tomorrow.
HS
January 24th, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Tony are you following Aapl earnings today?
January 24th, 2012 at 3:42 pm
HS, good for you. Given how CNR shares are reacting to a very good earnings report I think I’ll stick with my short through Thursday. Mind you, given everything that’s going on with CP (Ackman factor), who knows? Current mgmt may decided to be extra bullish with guidance, etc. to keep investors happy and not itching for board changes.
January 24th, 2012 at 3:48 pm
I bought GFS.TO today.
Support is around 6.50. Will see how it goes.
I also put my stop loss limit @ 5% loss.
January 24th, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Jimmy
On the daily charts:
Price has dropped well below the 4ma. Looks like the 4ma is about to go through the 18ma as well. RSI is approaching oversold. MACD histogram has negative bars.
Pivot points show that the stock is likely to test support at $76.09. The 38 and 50MAs don’t really seem like much help. The 100, 150, 200MAs suggest support starting at $75.70
On the 5min chart:
The price is sticking close to the 4MA which is below the 9 and 18. MACD bars are starting to turn up so the price may move up a bit today.
Options:
Using the Montreal Exchange, the most open interest is on the calls at $82 suggesting the price will move higher after testing support.
Conclusion:
The stock will move a little higher this afternoon, but then retreat to test support either later today or tomorrow. After this, there is a good chance it starts to move higher. Good entry point would be in the $76 range.
OK this my analysis first be critical.
1-cnr usually moves 2$ on a good/bad day, so look at it at the end of the day. its already down 4$. this is already a signal to bail out.
2- look back to august and oct look at how the 18 is compared to the 50 yes I already see your ? if you look at a bigger picture. it turned but everytime it does the 18 and the 50 arent dancing cheek to cheek.
3-tomorrow 4 will open lot lower and price might open lower than 4MA if it does then you can buy it for a small day trade.
4-Options. your looking at it all wrong. 82 seems to be its resistance they are putting over its head. now look closely to the cboe they sold the feb,march, april 80 calls, not a good sign and if we go into july they sold the 85$ calls and all small amounts 50 at most, now if you look at puts they are buying the feb 70 and 75, april 70 and finally july 60$ vol 171 there is none that came close to this level on the calls
So they are not expecting a push higher than 80$ but are protecting themselves up to 60 for july you really want to be out after tomorrow.
5- CN should not have proceeded as they did against former CEO, doesn’t look good for the company and it means they aren’t willing to take him back, instead they should have simply went and made a bigger man out of themselves and ask him what is the low down. does he want a position back at the CN,
do you know the expression you don’t catch bees vinegar but with honey. they simply went with the vinegar.
January 24th, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Jimmy
last thing 4/9/18 is good or bad, but when you get 38 or 50 coming and catch you with the rest of the gang don’t ask yourself where price is headed. unless there is news on it I would go in the other direction just as I would with a 4/9 or 4/18 or 9/18.
January 24th, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Tony,
Thanks for #92.
Most on this board seem to have the same view of a pullback.
Most of the cdn stocks on my watchlist are in the red as is the tsx. That’s OK as
I took some profits on my longs and am waiting for lower prices for re-entry but I bought HVU prematurely (should have bought hxd or hix).
The s&p is fighting not to go down…have to wait and see what Ben has to say.
January 24th, 2012 at 3:58 pm
I’m very happy with bbd.b. I wish I had more shares!
January 24th, 2012 at 3:59 pm
Thanks Tawny (re mail) – you too
eve
January 24th, 2012 at 4:00 pm
You may want to take a look at vit.v (Victoria gold). They did a presentation at the Vancouver mining conference yesterday. Looks pretty strong. Openheimer funds now have a 10% stake or smth like that. I expect it to move from $0.44 towards $0.60 in the next 6-8 months.
January 24th, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Mc
mg.to I recall giving info not that long ago on it now where is it headed
MAcd seems like it has no clear sense of direction for the time being, some would say resistance between 44-46. I don’t know
options is saying buy the calls march 44 and 45 selling 47 and 50.
june they are buying the 44 48 and 50
so if it hits 47 before march sell 1/2 and try and get back in it at 44 and have a trailing stop you see 48
January 24th, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Tawny: We may stay in Kitchener or move. Nothing to keep us here. One child in Ottawa, Toronto and one still in Kitchener. Maybe we will house sit abroad for a couple of years. Time will tell. No rush. I don’t expect the bubbles will burst for a few years (2-4). We have time. Retired? Yes & Know. I trade for a living, however if the the right business opportunity comes along, I may bite. Bermuda would be nice. I’m a professional accountant by trade. In this day & age, us baby boomers can’t retire. We lost too much in the crash of 2008.
January 24th, 2012 at 4:06 pm
mick/inv, can you imagine that POS CMG is green AGAIN and is now at $360 on daily volumes of 350,000 shares.. I so regret getting involved with this stock. It’s super manipulated.
January 24th, 2012 at 4:11 pm
ron
recall few days ago how I said they were rotating in the energy sector, it was all rare earth, solar, uranium, nasty and coal.
so now waiting for wind power
January 24th, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Slava
sorry but bbd. I recall you crying your heart out on this board and told you to look at it in the 3-3.5 area and then came back and told you to look 4.5
and now you want some more at what price???
January 24th, 2012 at 4:16 pm
Slava,
re CMG:
It’s forming a “rising wedge” pattern – THAT is BEARISH when it finally breaks through the wedge – so, hold on girl, you should have relief soon as the pattern is getting very close to breaking – IF the pattern gets negated, then expect a large jump UP in price – BUT, i don’t expect that to occur – due to the rising wedge that’s showing. So, chear up Slava – it’s coming soon for you
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 4:17 pm
tony, you are so adorable
January 24th, 2012 at 4:17 pm
Rachel
I just went about Appl options ouch they bought up to the 350 puts in feb and 325 puts in march
January 24th, 2012 at 4:20 pm
Tony :Thank you very much.
January 24th, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Tawny: I am doing a few swing trades these days to attempt to catch those morning gaps. Long Oil with a small hedge, and short S&P.
January 24th, 2012 at 4:22 pm
tony, because of my hot Russian I function on about 2 hours of sleep per night, every night.. I’m so exhausted – I’m sure my brain function is severly impaired (at least it has been in the last three weeks with all the stupid short positions I’ve undertaken). I finally told him this morning at 4 a.m. that I need to get some rest and that we’ll have to see each other every other day otherwise I’ll get fired AND lose all of my money.. he smiled.
January 24th, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Slava
I wish I would have bought this when you came back from your trip and gave your report. I did try but it ran away from me. Maybe Michael is spending all his time/money in one the restaurants while he is in Arizona, driving up the price.
January 24th, 2012 at 4:26 pm
slava,
did you see my note for you at post 108?? if not, please read as it’s something you’ll like.
eve
January 24th, 2012 at 4:29 pm
Hey Eve, just read it
my concern now is that CMG is reporting earnings on Feb. 1st. It looks like the big boys want to run into up into the earnings. I’m already short 200 shares so can’t short more. This stock never goes down… until it does. Netflix anyone? I think Chipotle will lose some market share to Taco Bell whose mgmt said that they can make a tastier burrito than CMG’s for half the price.
January 24th, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Tony,
Thanks for your help re: CNR. Hope your kid is feeling better soon.
January 24th, 2012 at 4:37 pm
rachel
i saw they halted the trading on aaple ab=nd they blew it out of the park
think if u see selling prior to earnings be sure it will go against the trend,
January 24th, 2012 at 4:37 pm
mick/inv, re 114 – let’s find another stock like CMG, buy it and hold it, sounds good? Please let me know when/if you find a stock like that. You may remember that while in Vegas I bought 100 and than another 100 shares of CMG just over $300 and dumped all of them the next day.. Like you always say – it’s best to hold a strong stock in an uptrend vs. fight the trend. I’m really starting to pay attention!
January 24th, 2012 at 4:39 pm
Slava,
Then that will most likely be the catalyst that will bring CMG down – is earnings on Feb 1st. as it is definitely a rising wedge pattern – going up and declining volume, formed over the last few months, etc. – so, I can see it coming down then on earnings – ESPECIALLY if it runs UP into its earnings release – remember what IO wrote today regarding earnings release and a stock that runs up in price just before the announcement? vs. a stock that pulls back in price just before earnings announcement. so, it’s a good sign that it’s running up into its earnings date.
eve
January 24th, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Slava
Maybe if Michael reads this he can visit Chiptole and Taco Bell and then give us a report on which is better. What is the symbol for Taco Bell?
January 24th, 2012 at 4:43 pm
mick/inv, Taco Bell is owned by Yum Brands (YUM). They are not quite ready to compete with Chipotle yet, they are working on upgrading their image/stores/menus as we speak.
January 24th, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Good afternoon all,
I was wondering what your outlook for Nat Gas is. I have been reading that it is time to get in. I have been looking at AAV.to and it looks like there was a large volume spike a few days ago and was oversold. Do you think it is a good time to buy or wait till the second week of February.
I am a newbie and have been trying to educate myself.
Thanks DD
January 24th, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Slava,
here’s a stock you might like – if you’re looking for one like CMG – it’s PNRA.
By the way, see what AAPL did in the last few days before earnings today?? It pulled BACK – and see what it’s doing in after hours now after beating?/ Up 9%!! Yep, happens ALL the time with stocks and earnings and run ups or pullbacks into earnings
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Eve: This pullback seems like it will never materialize. Could you please take a look at FAZ and HVU and provide your analysis. Should have gotten out last week. Tomorrow looks like a break out day for the SnP where its been holding for sometime. Your comments are appreciated. Thanks
January 24th, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Slava
Yum has a similar chart to CMG, up. Although Yum went above the 20,3 keltner the other day and also overbought on the rsi 14, it would have been a good short then. it has dropped the last 2 days.
January 24th, 2012 at 5:01 pm
Ray-Kitchener
NTR
Thanks for sharing! House sitting abroad sounds very interesting – nice way to see more of the world
If you want to stay close to the children, have to say Kingston is a great location being so close to Ottawa, Toronto and Montreal. Nice old feel in the old part of town, lots of history, the lake, thousand islands, etc. Stable economy and better weather than most cities. We have hardly had any snow all winter… really is a slightly different climate here. The big thing here, weather wise, is the WIND. Lots of it so it is also a major sailing site.
With your newly discovered career (trading), you can do that anywhere
I do hope we are right being short S&P
Why is my spelling not being checked as I type?
January 24th, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Ray-K
P.S. to #127
Perhaps your real-estate predictions are somewhat based on After Shock? I still have not got that book. I thought I might be able to get it as an e-book. Bought the PlayBook and considering it also contains KOBO it really is a heck of a deal at $299. But Kobo does not have After Shock in Store so I guess I will go Amazaon.ca. Wonder if Cotco has it.
January 24th, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Eve,
look how google reacted last week they pulled back from 660 to 625 area and then got clobbered,
if you look back at the options on the day they reported options were buying the calls selling the puts today a totally different story they bought the puts and sold the calls.
saying if you have to go higher I will come back and buy you even if I get called away.
January 24th, 2012 at 5:06 pm
Eve re #124
Don V. said on B that Apple will likely pull back and $400. would be a good entry point. I did not see his entire spot, but I will check it out later on BNN.
Now going to check my mail.
January 24th, 2012 at 5:16 pm
tony,
GOOG was going up 5 days into earnings day – AFTER having fallen a great deal before those 5 days of inclining price into earnings – the fact it was rising into earnings was not a good sign that it would continue going up AFTER earnings release – it was a sign it would go down after earnings! I have seen this kind of thing SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO many times over the years – and I wrote about it several times on here last year – wrote about it several times last year too to Nick on the Cdn banks into earnings. It happens so often!! Happened yesterday with VMW (pulled back into earnings and then popped up today by $7 after earnings), happened the other day with FFIV, happened last quarter with FFIV, happened today with AAPL, happens every quarter with the Cdn banks. the only time it doesn’t work this way is when you see a stock not acting “normally” going into earnings – like, every stock in their sector is going up BUT that one stock is lagging and finding it hard to get going – THAT stock is mostly going to miss earnings AND will come down FURTHER in price from it lagging its peer group. I’ve seen that happen often too!
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 5:18 pm
PS tony,
re my post 131:
I meant when i wrote this:
THAT stock is “mostly” going to miss earnings AND will come down FURTHER in price from it lagging its peer group. I’ve seen that happen often too!
That stock is “most likely” going to miss earnings I meant to write…
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 5:19 pm
Hi Tawny,
Yes I saw Don V. on BNN and saw what he said on there re AAPL. Very interesting
Don also said that the SPX and TSX tends to pull back from here into the first week to first half of february. So, good for those holding bear ETFs 
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 5:26 pm
PSS tony,
the day GOOG reported earnings, it went up that day by $7 (before reporting AFTER the close that day) – and had gained around $20 in the 4 days prior to its earnings release – it went from $621 low to $641 high – and closed that day it reported at $639 – it opened the next day at $590.
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Eve: I am hoping everyone is right on this pullback but I just cannot feel it. All I see are my bear etfs going down… Sorry to be so negative when you are trying to help explain and update us on this pullback.
Tawny: Are you still feeling comfortable holding these bear etfs. Just wondering. HVU gave up almost all gains today.
January 24th, 2012 at 5:36 pm
Tony: Wow! look at those earnings!!!
January 24th, 2012 at 5:42 pm
Hi Kay,
It’s coming, it’s coming!
re FAZ: Looks like a falling wedge pattern is forming – this is a bullish pattern when it breaks. When that happens?? I can’t say as the markets seem to be “waiting” for something – some sort of catalyst to take the markets UP or sell off! There is more risk to the downside right now than to the upside. the SPX keeps going to 1315 – 4 days in a row it has gone to this level and closed there – THAT is not normal!! – this is what tells me the markets seem to be waiting for something! Maybe it’s Ben tomorrow?? i feel it might be – and if what I’m reading is true in that MANY are EXPECTING the Fed to announce OR HINT at another QE coming but then doesn’t announce it and in fact announces that NO QE is coming or doesn’t mention anything at all about QE, then that might be what the markets are “waiting” for in order to take the markets down. The hardest thing to know is “when”{ something will happen in the market – BUT when the market is overbought on all measures on a chart AND bullish sentiment AND the VIX AND put to call ratioos etc., then you can be sure the pullback is coming – it’s just a matter of when that is difficult to pin down. I saw someone on BNN today who stated this:
anyone who buys stocks right now is crazy!!! he says there are going to be a lot of bad things that come out of 2012 and that people are right to be on the sidelines and not buying this market – despite so many out there being bullish on stocks and telling people to buy them!
He is Al Corelan? Korelyn? don’t know how to spell his last name – but he is on kitco.com doing broadcasts all the time on gold – i’ve always liked him!! go on kitco and look at the bottom of the page to see audio broadcasts from him – al corlin?? something like that lol.
Plus Don V. said today that from now until the first week to 2 weks of feb., the TSX and SPX are usually DOWN – and that the SPX and TSX should pull back to their 50 day MA of around 1250 to 1260 on the SPX and 12000 on the TSX. Don then said that once the pullback is completed, people should buy stocks that are in their seasonal period like metals and mining and base metals I believe Don said – and others too I’m guessing like oil and the industrials etc.
So, it’s coming kay – just need to have a bit more patience with it.
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 5:50 pm
PS Kay,
Even the futures for the SPX have been stuck at 1315 since after market closing today. So, it’s being kept at 1315 for some reason – and I think the reason is because the market is in “wait mode” – wait mode for “something” to drive it higher OR to finally sell it down.
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 6:06 pm
Hi mick/nv and Slava. I have not ventured into a CMG or a Taco Hell in my life, so I’m not about to do so while in AZ. There’s just so many good restaurants serving Mexican food cooked by Mexicans that I can’t force my way into one of those chains. For lunch, I microwaved a frozen burrito and it was excellent! I may not return to snowy BC!
January 24th, 2012 at 6:17 pm
Kay
Re #135 – Comfortable? Have not been comfortable for the last few days… but I am going to hang in. I am not even comfortable / convinced that seasonality will take its normal course as it hasn’t for a longggg time. But, it certainly seems reasonable that the markets will come down from here. And with the chart from StockTiming posted earlier today on the VIX with its falling wedge pattern, I will give this trade more time. See waht the Fed says tomorrow and the reaction.
Also, I believe Obama is giving a State of the Union address tonight. He could pump things up though
January 24th, 2012 at 6:28 pm
Hi Kay, (Tawny too and others looking for a market pullback):
I’m just reading Jon V.’s daily report on the markets (From Equity Clock) that he wrote today. here’s an excerpt from his report:
With the month of January nearing an end, I thought it might be beneficial to pull up a monthly chart of the S&P 500 to determine the prospects going forward. The chart shows consecutive higher highs and higher lows from the March 2009 low, a bullish pattern for the market. Despite the plunge back in August and doom & gloom speculations that have accompanied, the trend remains higher until the point in time when a lower significant high (or low) can be achieved. Presently very few analysts are forecasting anything above last May’s peak around 1370, suggesting that investors may look to heavily liquidate positions should the equity benchmark push closer to this level. The concern then becomes that a lower high may be fulfilled, which would create a pattern that resembles a head-and-shoulders top; a pattern than would imply downside potential to a range between 800 to 900, or over 30% lower from present levels. The decreasing volume as of recent, showing waning conviction, provides merit to this bearish scenario. This bearish possibility remains just that, “a possibility”, until confirmation of the next intermediate high is obtained. The chart also shows one other bearish quality. The 50-month moving average appears destined to cross below the 200-month average, an event that has not been seen for many decades. This bearish omen is more of an interesting note rather than any tradable indicator due to the extreme lag in these moving averages compared to the price action. The key takeaway from this chart is that markets are nearing an important juncture with much to prove as it pertains to the bullish case. Upside conviction remains relatively absent and momentum indicators are not showing any significant strength either. The longer-term path for the market could become clear fairly quickly over the next couple of months.
Hope this helps allay some concerns Kay
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 6:41 pm
Eve: Thanks for those indept analysis and comments, you are just too, too kind and good. I’ll keep my fingers and toes crossed
hoping for the best.
Tawny: You are one brave sole, hang in their, I maybe with you until Thursday, if this doesn’t turn around I am exiting. Interesting when I bought this etf Wm 7 turned up around Jan 17th to the line if you looked then turned down immediately. As a matter of fact a few more bear etfs have those double dip. Obama may come up with some package to help the housing possible from what I have been reading.
January 24th, 2012 at 6:57 pm
Eve: In the above report is there a typo, it says 50 month and 200 month, should it be 50 and 200 day. Just wondering.
Michael: Just wondering what you think of the house price in Arizona. Do you own or rent there. Enjoy your time out there.
January 24th, 2012 at 7:09 pm
Hi Kay. House prices look like they bottomed here in sunny AZ. I bought a condo here last April when the loonie was around $1.04 US. I paid around 25% of what it was going for in 2007, which is generally what has happened in Arizona and Vegas. While the condo is beautiful, there’s a lot of not-so-beautiful properties up for sale, many of which are foreclosures.
January 24th, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Hi Kay,
No, no typo – it is 50 month and 200 month – that’s why it is so rare when it happens as the 50 day and 200 day are more common than over months of that length of time. Check out the SPX MONTHLY chart in Jon’s report – found here:
http://www.equityclock.com/2012/01/23/stock-market-outlook-for-january-24-2012/
you’ll be able to see the 50 month and 200 month lines on the chart – AND you’ll be able to see that head and shoulders formation too – going back to 2009 – so, a multi-year formation.
Eve
January 24th, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Michael, so it sounds like we have a place to stay when we are in AZ? Great, looking forward to it
I hate Vancouver weather this time of year, so depressing! I can’t recall the last time I saw sunshine around here.. sometime in 2011.
January 24th, 2012 at 8:11 pm
Hi Eve: Never thought someone would look that far back. OK lets see what happens next. Thanks again Eve.
Michael: Congratulations on your purchase…enjoy! My brother will be going to Orlando in February to look and hopefully buy if he finds somethiing of interest, so hoping to rent from him for a few weeks in the winter.
January 24th, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Michael, thank you re: #41 and congrats too on your Arizona home. An investment to enjoy, imagine that
Don’t know where you are in Az but 2 magical places we’ve climbed and hiked are Mt Lemmon and Cochise Stronghold. Really amazing. We also loved the B&Bs with the big telescopes to wander the incredible Az night skies. An amazing state.
January 24th, 2012 at 8:19 pm
Tony, thank you for #84 & 85. I’ll keep a watch on these and the strategy.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Slava,
I’m concerned he smiled when you said you would run out of money? maybe I<m looking at it from the wrong angle or maybe the smile in my mind is the cynical one but I would be worrisome if it is the case.
January 24th, 2012 at 10:33 pm
Kay,
remember back in december I had some concerns with this market because using the monthly chart the 4/9 baby bear and the 4/18 was about to happen but never came true as the price hit the 200MA on a monthly basis, and MACD also turned positive.
now the parameters of the indicators used is always done in comparison with the time frame used. for instance on a 5min chart the 4MA is by using the last 4 5 min bars on the chart so it takes into consideration the last 20mins. and on a monthly basis the 4 is based on a 4month period
January 24th, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Hi Cannuck2004,
Would it be possible to get entry price for tga.un cuf.un & erf.un for longterm hold.
Thanks
January 24th, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Tawny
NTR
Spell check is working for me so I assume it’s your browser. I use Mozilla Firefox which has a built in spell checker. The setting is in Tools/Options/Advanced/General. Make sure the “Check My Spelling as I Type” box is ticked. If you are using Internet Explorer which doesn’t have a spell check, you need to download and install an extension called IESPELL.
January 24th, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Chris/BC
NTR re #153. Thanks for tht. I usr Firefox as well. Checked and tht box is ticked… and as you can see from thes mastakes it is not working. Wonder why.
January 24th, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Hi Kay, (and Tawny too)
I just realized why the SPX is staying at that 1315 level – it’s because the weekly options expire this Friday – and last Friday, when the monthly options expired, the SPX was pinned to 1315 – so, that is what it is being pinned to it looks like for the weeklies expiry too! So, after that, the SPX should finally be coming down.
Eve
January 25th, 2012 at 12:56 am
hi Eve,
good to hear more from you lately.Hope you feel well now.I don’t have much chance to trade here in India but i try to read this site if i have time.
what you see of gold stocks lately? GDX is not trading with gold lately even if gold went up a lot along with euro and spx.Now if spx,gold etc. breakdown then gdx will be in more trouble.What is your take on it.
I sold my hgu few days ago $13+ and put in a buy order of same position at $11.67 and it got filled last night(night here).I don’t like it too much but better as I decreased my break-even to aprox $13.50 from early dec blunder.
here is GDX compared with GLD,EURO and SPX and see it down against then all lately.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDX:GLD&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p55642296236
kam
January 25th, 2012 at 1:26 am
Tawny
NTR
Are you running the latest version of Firefox? I’m at version 9.0.1.
You might be missing the dictionary. To check, right click in the message box and in the pop-up box select the bottom entry “Languages”. It should show “English/United States”. If it doesn’t, click on “add dictionaries” and install the English dictionary. Good luck.