ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Wednesday January 25th
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 future are down 5 points in pre-opening trade. Negotiations on Greece’s sovereign debt have yet to reach an agreement.
Fourth quarter earnings continue to pour in. Companies reporting overnight included Apple, Boeing, General Dynamics, Ericson, SAP, United Technologies, Xerox, U.S. Airways, Corning, Textron, Praxair, Occidental Petroleum, Abbott Labs, Conoco Phillips, Exelon, Nvidia, Granger, Advanced Micro Devices, Yahoo, Hess, St. Jude Medical and ADP.
The focus was on Apple after the company reported “blow-out” quarterly results. The stock gained $37.70 to $458.20.
BCE fell $0.45 to $40.76 U.S. after RBC Capital downgraded the stock from Outperform to Sector Perform.
McDonalds eased $0.55 to $98.20 after CLSA downgraded the stock from Buy to Outperform.
Starbucks added $0.40 to $48.05 after Oppenheimer upgraded the stock from Perform to Outperform. Target is $56.
Goldman Sachs fell $1.53 to $107.34 after JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral. Target is $120.
Morgan Stanley dropped $0.22 to $17.92 after JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Overweight to Neutral. Target is $23.
Baker Hughes slipped $0.68 to $46.76 after Susquehanna downgraded the stock from Positive to Neutral.
Potash Corp eased $0.33 to $44.10 after Dahlman Rose downgraded the stock from Hold to Sell. Target is $41.
Oracle slipped $0.19 to $28.32 after Macquarie downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral.
Societe Generale changed its opinions on several energy stocks. Marathon Oil and Encana were upgraded from Hold to Buy. Talisman and Murphy Oil were downgraded from Buy to Hold.
Technical Watch
McDonalds Corp.(NYSE:MCD) – $98.20 slipped 0.6% after CLSA downgraded the stock from Buy to Outperform. The stock has a positive technical profile with a short term caution. Intermediate trend is up. The stock reached an all-time high last week. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Seasonal influences turn positive near the end of January. However, the stock broke short term support at $98.68 yesterday, short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels and strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned negative in mid-December. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock closer to its 50 day moving average at $97.21.
McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) Seasonal Chart
BCE Inc. (NYSE:BCE;TSE:BCE) – $41.59 Cdn. is expected to open lower after RBC Capital downgraded the stock from Outperform to Sector Perform. The stock has a positive technical profile with short term technical concerns. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. However, the stock broke short term support yesterday at $41.58, short term momentum indicators are trending down and strength relative to the S&P 500 Index, TSX Composite Index has been negative since the end of November and seasonal influences are slightly negative in February. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness to its recent break out level at $40.00 Cdn.
BCE Inc. (TSE:BCE) Seasonal Chart
United Technologies Corp. (NYSE:UTX) – $77.90 added 0.2% after reporting slightly better than fourth quarter results. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock is in an intermediate uptrend. Support is at $70.41 and resistance is at $79.87. The stock trades above its 50 day moving average, but below its 200 day moving average. Seasonal influences have just turned positive. However, short term momentum indicators are overbought and are starting to rollover and strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-November. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to support at $75.17.
United Technologies Corporation (NYSE:UTX) Seasonal Chart
Mark Leibovit’s Daily Gold Comment
Information on Mark’s services is available at
http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp
GOLD – ACTION ALERT – BUY
Metals started to correct a bit yesterday and I am pretty much in the same camp for the metals as I am for equities. We’re overbought, but I don’t want to chase them. The current game plan is to look for a re-entry point under the market for our silver, gold, uranium and copper plays. FOMC day is a good day to keep a low profile. Investors? Metals have a real shot to push higher this year, so I remain on my BUY signal until technicals and seasonal suggest otherwise. New highs? That I cannot say
Technical Action by S&P 500 stocks on Monday and Tuesday
Technical action was mixed. Thirteen S&P 500 stocks broke resistance (mainly on Monday) and seven stocks broke support (mainly yesterday). Stocks breaking resistance included Adobe, H&R Block, Coach, Covidian, EMC, Hewlett Packard, IBM, Janus, Quest Diagnostics, Simon Properties, Tellabs, Verisign and Waters Corp. Stocks breaking support included Altria, American Electric Power, Frontier Communications, Kimberly Clark, McDonald’s , Newmont Mining and Reynolds American). The Up/Down ratio increased from 3.04 to (331/104=) 3.18.
Response by the Dow Jones Industrial Average following the “State of the Union” Address
Data shows that the Dow on the day after the State of the Union Address moved higher in 26 of the past 52 periods and moved lower in 26 of the past 52 periods.
Mr. Vialoux on BNN Television
Following is a link to the interview yesterday (done just prior to release of Apple’s results)
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip606487
Adrienne Toghraie’s “Trader’s Coach” Column
Overwhelmed
By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Coach
In a split second the feeling of being overwhelmed can overtake you and your decision making process. It is during times like these that the only smart thing to do is to stop trading and have a predetermined plan to put yourself back in a state of calm. Sudden overwhelm can come as a result of:
· A huge project with time constraints
· Bad news
· An accident
· A computer glitch
· Trying to get information through a maze of computer answered phones
· Someone getting angry with you
· Disturbances in your environment
· An expectation not realized
· A loss
· Doing something stupid
· Your doing everything right and getting bad results
When overwhelm overtakes a trader, this is the time when huge losses can occur. This is why it is so important that you plan for them in advance. Even though a plan is individualistic to each person’s needs, here are some actions to consider:
· Stop what you are doing – get out of the trade, get off the ladder, take your fingers
out of the boiling pot.
· Take a break and walk around the block
· Call a friend who will listen
· Take Pantothenic Acid (with a doctor’s permission)
· Eat some protein
· Do simple productive tasks of organization
· Break the problem down into small achievable tasks
· Play a computer game
· Take the day off
· Go over what the problem is that you are dealing with and the actions you can take
to overcome this problem to minimize it or to prevent it from happening again
· Revisit your trading business plan
· Simulate trading for the rest of the day
· Take on smaller risk
· Have a checklist for what you need to do to be ready for trading again
Passing through with vengeance
Bob created an environment that was conducive to profitable trading. Knowing from past experiences of becoming overwhelmed, he knew what he had to do to be consistent in his trading.
Just after the opening of a trading day, his sister came to the door with suitcases in hand a baby and two toddlers. She had just left her husband and needed a place to stay. Bob stopped his trading, listened to his sister, called to arrange for a motel for him to go out to trade the next day. Due to this situation, he lost out on a particularly good opportunity, but knew he had done the right thing by stopping trading for the day.
The next day Bob went to the motel and found that he did not feel comfortable enough to trade. He forced himself and went through a series of losses, which made him even more overwhelmed.
Checklist
Bob initially made good choices, but he should have had as part of his plan a checklist for when he was ready to go back to trading again.
Conclusion
It is important to understand what happens to you when you feel overwhelmed and what it takes for you to pull out of that state. In trading it can make the difference between being profitable and being inconsistent.
Trader’s Expo New York City – February 19 – 21
Adrienne Presents Recognizing 15 Sabotage Traps
In Trading & Investing
Monday, February 20 – 1:30 pm – 2:30 pm
And Visit us in Exhibit Hall Booth # 5418 on the 5th floor
Marriott Marquis Time Square
www.moneyshow.com
Announcing Adrienne’s New Book – Trading On Target
Order Now on Amazon.com – great reviews!
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Equities are rallying, but what about bond yields”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/01/24/equities-are-rallying-but-what-about-bond-yields/
The World Outlook Financial Conference
Friday, February 10 and Saturday, February 11
Westin Bayshore Hotel, Vancouver, B.C.
Mr. Vialoux is presenting.
Here is the link:
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Gold Futures (GC) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC January 24th 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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Discussions from the Tech Talk Forum:
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January 25th, 2012 at 9:16 am
Last night – our OWL Eve said:
Eve Says:
January 24th, 2012 at 11:39 pm
Hi Kay, (and Tawny too)
I just realized why the SPX is staying at that 1315 level – it’s because the weekly options expire this Friday – and last Friday, when the monthly options expired, the SPX was pinned to 1315 – so, that is what it is being pinned to it looks like for the weeklies expiry too! So, after that, the SPX should finally be coming down.
Eve – if this is so, it is so unfair, but unfortunately, believeable that the market can be so rigged!
January 25th, 2012 at 9:49 am
Tawny: Thanks for the above info., indeed Eve stays up late. Another day will watch and wait to see what happens. The board is very quiet this morning.
January 25th, 2012 at 9:50 am
Tawny: E=W recommended buying HXD, but I had enough of these bears, please do your own DD as he has also been wrong at times as well. Happy trading.
January 25th, 2012 at 9:57 am
Kay Re #3
Who is E=W ?
January 25th, 2012 at 9:59 am
feed is down test
January 25th, 2012 at 10:02 am
Top 9 stocks from moneysense mag earned with both growth and value for 2012.
If you bought equal amounts of their original All-Star stocks seven years ago and rolled your gains into the new batch each year, you would have an annual return of 15.5%
ATD.B, ACO.X, CCL.B, UFS, ELF, EMP.A,IAG,MAL,UNS
Good reading in their latest magazine.
January 25th, 2012 at 10:06 am
Tawny: Hamilton’s E-Wave Theory website
January 25th, 2012 at 10:14 am
Hi Kam, how is your trip going so far? I suppose that festivities are in full swing.
I’m also eyeing to buy more hgu. As you may remember I sold a chunk of my position above $13.. I hedged with a bit of hgd after that but dumped hgd (should have kept it).
I hope that Eve, Tony, Lin and others can comment on gold stocks at this juncture.
January 25th, 2012 at 10:18 am
Kay
#7 – I figured E=W was Elliott Wave but wondered where from – so thanks for that. The bears work really well if your are on the right side… timing is important. Should wait for a trend – when I bought HVU, it was starting to trend but did not continue. It is still looking good as long as Bernnie Boy doesn’t say something to excite the markets.
January 25th, 2012 at 10:32 am
Ric re #6
Thanks for that information. Will check out Money sense – I have read it from time to time and it was the report they do on best Canadian Cities to retire that brought us to Kingston 3-1/2 years ago.
January 25th, 2012 at 10:34 am
kam, I bought another 4,000 HGU at $11.63 and put a stop loss.
January 25th, 2012 at 10:39 am
Called Horizons,
Hxd does not work off futures and goes up and down with the market by two times.
EW is correct.
January 25th, 2012 at 10:40 am
Slava , stop loss at …. ?
January 25th, 2012 at 10:59 am
Top Dividend Picks
Top dividend pics to retire on moneysense nov 2011
Retirement all Stars – graded for yield, reliability and value. If you purchased all-star pics starting in 2007 and moved into the new crop each year, your portfolio would be up 39%
GWO, HSE, POW,, PWF, SLF, TD
January 25th, 2012 at 11:01 am
Tony
NTR
Which version of linux do you recommend?
January 25th, 2012 at 11:06 am
Ric re #14
“and moved into the new crop each year, your portfolio would be up 39%” this is quite vague – are any more details supplied? New Crop = same stock? Moved = ? into new crop. Each year = ? time of year?
January 25th, 2012 at 11:06 am
Ray-Kitchener,
I respectfully disagree with your position of the housing market in Canada. I believe that after our very, very low dip in the stock market somewhere in the summer of 2012 and after letting several European countries, leave the Euro currency, then that will be the bottom for the next many years.
Our trump card in Canada is CMHC (Central Mortgage and Housing Corporation) allowing for mortgage insurance to take care of situations, where people get into homes with less than 20% as a down payment. All mortgages without 20% must purchase default insurance, which ranges from 1.00% to 3.50% of the principal amount that is added to the amount of the mortgage.
Our commodity based economy will be a saviour for us. Our housing market never did take the hit that the USA did because of CMHC and the strict mortgage lending policies of our banks.
So, that is my humble opinion, based on some 30 years in the housing market.
Ana
January 25th, 2012 at 11:11 am
Ric,
I find the top picks a little strange because two of them are insurance companys that depend on interest rates and the stock market .Fund managers don’t like them at this time of low interst rates and crazy markets.If Europe goes the wrong way Td will likely go the wrong way.
January 25th, 2012 at 11:17 am
Ana,
One problem,CMHC does not have enough money to cover all the morgages it covers and that would leave us tax payers to cover the balances.
January 25th, 2012 at 11:18 am
#11 HGU
Slava – good for you! Gold inching up – don’t forget to move up your stop-loss limit!
January 25th, 2012 at 11:19 am
rick, just moved my stop loss on hgu to $11.69.. I covered TD short this morning near the low, however CP, lulu and CMG short positions continue to lose money for me. Okay, off to work now.
January 25th, 2012 at 11:20 am
Trying HVU for a day trade – hoping for some action from Europe & before FOMC meet. Stop loss in place.
January 25th, 2012 at 11:24 am
Where is the social outrage about APPLE making all of the money while using slave labour to produce their products. Where is CNBC on this story?
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-1382396/Workers-Chinese-Apple-factories-forced-sign-pledges-commit-suicide.html
The workers get paid $140.00 per month, work 14 days without a day off and sometimes work for 24 to 36 hours in a row.
Gotta love that I pod !
Ana
January 25th, 2012 at 11:28 am
#23
Ana, did you notice the name – “Foxconn factories”? Isn’t THAT ironic!
January 25th, 2012 at 11:29 am
Jos
my laptop is running on linux mint 12
tried fedora and had a few glitches.
January 25th, 2012 at 11:33 am
Tawney Paul-R
Looks like the list comes out every Nov. 39% includes dividends reinvested annually, since the list started up 4 years ago. Some on the list were from last year and some were deleted and new ones in place. Buy and sell would therefore I guess be done in Nov, when the list comes out. Quite a lengthy article. I borrowed it from the library,
as it is off the store shelves.
Article also explains the list is based purely on the numbers, did not factor in personal opinions. And as for all purchases you should investigate in more detail. No mention of interest rates. IMO I do not believe interest rates will rise in the near future as the economy is still struggling and rising rates would mean less growth and employment.
January 25th, 2012 at 11:35 am
Paul-R
CMHC just celebrated their 65th anniversary last year. CMHC is one of Canada’s largest companies, it is rated by the International Monetary Fund as one of the most financially secure institutions among all nations.
Ana
January 25th, 2012 at 11:36 am
Anna/To
Yes, I thought that name was a bit ironic!
Ana
January 25th, 2012 at 11:44 am
Anyone following HNU, looks like RSI and MACD Hist turned up. Maybe shorted lived as per analyst on BNN last nite who predicted nat gas bottom at $1.50 approx., meanwhile enjoy the ride. Tomorrow will probably give an indication as to upside/downside after inventory.
January 25th, 2012 at 11:51 am
Kay
no clue about price of nat gas but everytime they go with these wild prediction it doesn’t realize in the short term.
only thing i know is that tlm cut capex on nat gas, and so did chk so this means others should follow, but some corp are hedged to 5$ so as long as price stays to those levels they don’t care its when price will be above this price that they will start selling the hedges.
January 25th, 2012 at 11:57 am
kay
look at 08 they were predicting oil 200$ we saw oil 150 but not 200
so same goes with the bottom they were all saying price of nat gas below 2 I think this when the bottom comes into play.
I should probably get involved with an eca, or something close to it.
don’t forget the xom cvx of this world went on a shopping spree in buying these nat gas producers. so this should bold well for the sector I don’t think these companies would invest in something they don’t believe in. so the future is now.
the state of the nation did they talk clearly on what energy they are focused on
January 25th, 2012 at 11:58 am
Ana: That’s the beauty of living in Canada. We have the ability to disagree with opinions. I wouldn’t want it any other way. Time will tell what happens. If you believe interest rates will stay low for the next 5 years, then yes it will stay steady in the housing market. I believe that they will increase and that inflation will rear its ugly head. We can talk again in 2015.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:03 pm
oops forgot then when all hell was loose they were calling oil to hit 40$ it stopped at 50 before retreating to 100
January 25th, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Ray are you saying I should go for a 4year mortgage at 2.99% instead of a 5 yr 2.99?
I could go for a 3yr 2.89, and try to consolidate both the 3X and the house.
oh how many ? on what to do especially the 5y
January 25th, 2012 at 12:13 pm
Tony,
Very nice bounce off the downtrend line for AVL.to and RES.to as we talked about yesterday. Right on cue.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Tawney,
Was it you who was interested in OTC.to?
It has started to perform as per it’s seasonals (they only last till the end of Feb). It could get to 52 and maybe 54. This one moves fast once it starts.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Tawny, sorry about the “e” in my last post:)
January 25th, 2012 at 12:22 pm
Tony: I would get rid of your mortgage, take a homeline instead. Write off the interest on your tax return against your investments. It is called the Smith Manoeuvre. That is provided your investment account is similar size to your mortgage. If not, you could do it in stages. As for locking in, I would wait until the Bank of Canada lowers their rate. They still have that arrow in the quiver. Governments will try everything, rates, QE, swaps, austerity, etc. to ward off what is coming at us longer term.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:23 pm
Tony: When in doubt I will stay. These analyst are always behind the curve as you mention and so are the rating agencies for corporation. Could you please provide your thoughts on the market. thanks.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Bens comments:
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/25/us-usa-fed-idUSTRE80N1DQ20120125
I don’t see anything unexpected…
January 25th, 2012 at 12:39 pm
I’m back in front of a computer now.. so my HGU got sold at $11.69 and now it’s at $11.82… this is why I’m not keen on stop losses. Oh well. I suppose a stop loss is an “insurance” policy.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Can anyone comment on what sectors does well in the economy with low interest rates.
Thanks.
January 25th, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Slava, sorry to hear about you getting stopped out but, that was an incredibly tight stop to put on. Wasn’t it actually 0.03 above your purchase price?
January 25th, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Slava
re:#41
Are you complaining about making money?
January 25th, 2012 at 1:04 pm
SPX:
Being kept at 1315 – expect this to continue until friday for the weekly options expiration.
re NAT GAS:
As shown on seasonalcharts, it seems to be acting as it is supposed to act at this time of year which is down for the first 3 weeks of January, then up for the last week of January – for Feb., it shows down the first 2 weeks of Feb and then up from there into April – i guess we’ll see. Here’s the chart showing this seasonality for it:
http://seasonalcharts.com/future_energie_naturalgas.html
It’s fascinating to me that this year, it is acting EXACTLY as per what the seasonal chart shows! plus, down all of Dec., and this is also what is shown on the chart – and this is just what nat gas did in Dec.! Just fascinating really!
Eve
January 25th, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Slava,
Your stop loss was too tight I think.
But you made money anyway! Nice work!
January 25th, 2012 at 1:06 pm
#44 – LOL. Slava – I’m happy for you – your luck is turning up!
Got stopped out from my HVU day trade with a few $ of profit – literally.
So, after the FOMC minutes – anyone would like to take a stab at guessing the market’s direction? SP 1340 and beyond? Would love to hear your comments – thank you.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Hi Eve. I think you must have been reading my mind! Finally my/your PEY.to is moving up (but still not much as ECA). I’ll likely hold until I see the mid-Keltner. Thanks.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:13 pm
#46
Something I’ve heard from currency traders – risk/reward ratio is very important – always allow for more upside than loss, so you can let your winners run. For example set up a sell on stop 3% below and 6% above your price – different people use different risk/reward ratios (1:2, 1:3, 1:5) – there’s lots of info and research available regarding this topic.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Ray
they are offering me 3.25 for 5 yrs because I would have to break current mortgage or simply pay the 2200$ penality. of how many questions I got.
I should probably ask wayne as he was a mortgage guy.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:22 pm
Hello Anyone
What is a good entry point for CCO.TO and TCK.B.TO? Thanks.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:23 pm
In Slava’s case I think she mere set her stop loss far too close to the current price of the stock. I you were going to adjust you’re stop loss when she did a better stop point would have been at the opening price (11.59) if you wanted to be conservative. Or even at (11.50).
Oddly enough I was considering jumping in today even at the current price (12.39) it looks like it wants to go higher. I would have put a stop at around 11.91 or 12.02 depending on how conservative I felt.
However for some reason I decided to jump into HNU at 5.53 with a stop at 5.33. I have a feeling I’ll be out of this position soon.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Roy:
You could jump into CCO at this price (23.62) and use the 200d MA (22.72) as a stop.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:28 pm
Just logged in after coming back from a meeting.. hgu at $12.45.. damn! Left $3k on the table.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Eve,
Thx for the info re. the SPX and the weekly options expirey.
Any insight into the TSX?
January 25th, 2012 at 1:36 pm
S&P 500 now 1322.57…Hmmm
January 25th, 2012 at 1:38 pm
Ron/ab
I just want to see avl above its 100MA ths is where I see resistance on it for the time being will it poke above it?
Ree is about to have a 38/50 bull cross so it looks very promising but it has been trading along the 100MA so if iy could find a new lover would be good.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:38 pm
Ron/ab
I just want to see avl above its 100MA ths is where I see resistance on it for the time being will it poke above it?
Ree is about to have a 38/50 bull cross so it looks very promising but it has been trading along the 100MA so if iy could find a new lover would be good.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Slava what type of stop loss did you put on?
how low below your entry point was your stop loss.
My strategy is leave it there you only move it when you get close to a resistance point this is when you have a trailing stop in.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:44 pm
guess, we need to pray market crash like 2010 Sept.
January 25th, 2012 at 1:55 pm
Hi Kay
snp is headed to 1345 for the time being but this could change after the fomc report we could see either a small bounce then we would be headed lower or a drop before headed higher it all depends on what Uncle ben brings to the table.
Is Uncle ben the right name to call our beloved friend or should we call him willy the ground hog?
January 25th, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Tawny: My heart is telling one thing and I did the opposite
, says nothing will happen after B speaks, if anythiing markets will be up as you can see most indicies turned up. Just a feeling, hope I am proven wrong.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:09 pm
Hi Michael,
yes FINALLY PEY is coming up!! It was rated a TOP PICK today on Market Call too at 130 pm EST on BNN – due to being the lowest cost producer of nat gas and due to growth potential. Can’t wait to see what happens though in Feb with nat gas price – should be interesting.
Thanks Michael
Eve
January 25th, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Tony,
I’m not in REE or RES.
AVL has even shorter term resistance at around 3.15 to contend with. If it can get above that I have 3.40-3.50 target which is similar to your 100 dma level.
I’m still not too exicited about anything at this point. The TSX at 12500 is at resistance. I tend to think the markets will pull back soon but I need to see confirmation one way or the other.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Kay re #62
Was out – came back to find HVU under 11. Ouch! Since market is so oversold now, right, (?) and I am sooo tired and need a nap, I am going to have a nap and when I wake up maybe things will be better. I feel if the moment I give up, the markets will turn around. I have a bit of a history with this!
January 25th, 2012 at 2:27 pm
CJ
I know you’ve been on the sidelines since last week
just want to let you know cog will be heading to 75$ so hope you are hanging in there. after the brutal beating it got.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:29 pm
kay,
Markets moved lower after Ben started speaking – as i guess you see too
eve
January 25th, 2012 at 2:29 pm
TONY #66 – Your source???
January 25th, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Is the Fed trying to take the shock factor out of the European countries defaulting? I believe that they know something that we do not. That is the timing for the defaults.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Eve
Moved lower or higher? I saw that the Fed released a statement about interest rates around noon or so ET. Once that happened Golds took off, not sure if it is related or there is other news. Would you know?
January 25th, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Ron
I know, I feel the same way with this market.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:38 pm
CJ
options are calling for price to move to 75.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:39 pm
Tawny and Kay: Thoughts of day, re holding HVU.to. Tawny and Kay, we can just buy some puts with less than 1k, such as spy March 120 put to hedge our long. The max I lost is 1k if market break 134 and hold. And March is still 2 month away from now, which is far better with a lot of money bit on a possible.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:40 pm
Ana
fed just postponed raising rates till late 2014.
it will help every div paying stock.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:44 pm
but let me think every time the fed opens its mouth and price rallies this is always a bad sign. and on the contrary when price stumbles this is the good sign.
oohhh I getting a chill. better turn on my portable heater
January 25th, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Tony #72 – you are looking at actual vol then and discounting open interest at 82.50?
January 25th, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Cj
no just looking where they stop trading it. I’m trying not to be greedy.
January 25th, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Hi Eve and Tony,
I am wondering TA and entry point for UUP. Thank you for your time and insights, Ania
January 25th, 2012 at 3:00 pm
I have made $87 so far in 2012 meantime the paper losses are humungous
I’m gg to have to get greedy soon. Other half want to see some results or stop wasting time 
Can’t say I blame him.
January 25th, 2012 at 3:01 pm
OOps #79 for Tony re: #77
January 25th, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Ania,
uup.
you have the bears running down a cliff so I wouldn’t want to be caught with the trade.
4/50, and also the 9/18
I know MACD H is saying to buy but I have 2 against 1 now on the options front they are selling the calls, this to me says wait before entering the trade.
don’t know they way gold reacted to
January 25th, 2012 at 3:11 pm
CJ
I am curious, what are you buying that is losing money(i.e. venture stocks) and more important, when are you buying them (at the top of the channel)?
January 25th, 2012 at 3:11 pm
CJ
if you don’t mind me asking
what do you own and at what price just the symbol and price you entered the trade.
will try to give you some good advice on them.
January 25th, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Hi mick/nv,
yes, the Fed’s statement was released at 1230 PM EST today – in that statement the Fed said they’d be keeping interest rates on hold until end of 2014 (previous to that, it was to mid 2013) – keeping interest rates low is positive for equities and for gold too (plus other commodities too). So, this is why you saw gold and silver take off after this info was released.
When Ben started his news conference at 215 pm, equities started to lose ground but have since then at around 230 PM, they popped back up to where they were when Ben started to speak.
eve
January 25th, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Hi Tony,
I just had a look at COG and noticed a negative divergence on both MACD and RSI related to the Oct. low at $55.50. Was that low too far away to have any meaning? What makes you think COG is headed to $75?
Thanks
January 25th, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Tawny,
Don’t forget that bullish falling wedge on the VIX!…it has to break out very soon and there is very little downside to it.
I bought in at $11.08 this afternoon as either a short term trade or for longer depending how the s and p behaves, especially Friday and beyond.
January 25th, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Eve
Thanks for the info, just catching bits of it.
January 25th, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Hi Tony and Eve,
What is your TA of ssl.v(Sandstorm Gold Ltd, a Gold streaming company. The CEO is used to be a CFO from SLW(SILVER WHEATON CORP). I bought it at $1.28 and want to see what is the exist price.
Thank you!
Jeanne
January 25th, 2012 at 3:28 pm
tony,
Yes, I am listening to Ben Bernanke speak. I think with the rate extension to 2014, they are preparing all for a “situation” and signalling a prolonged period of weakness in the economy.
I wonder why Greece and Portugal, can not just get it over with. As soon as Europe can sort through after defaults, the better it will be for growth.
January 25th, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Wendy
first I took a peek at the options and they decided they want to buy the 62 to 75 calls on cog this to me says we are willing to see price rise until we see 75$ then we will see what will be the best option sell it or keep it.
1st I should say COg had its price run away from the 4MA last friday.
2nd my parameters are shorter so I don’t have to wait till price moves by 10-15% before deciding to get in or get out.
MACD (6,10,4) I use the histogram, monday it went above 0 and for those looking at when bars started to move north it started monday the 17th to be precise.
And W%R(6) crossed above the 50 in the last few days so these are all signs to put together gives me good buying opportunities for low risk high reward.
January 25th, 2012 at 3:35 pm
TONY #83
US$___avg cost
AMZN_$194.9717
COG__$67.51875
CDN$__avg cost
BA___$29.3526
EDR__$10.9422
SSL__$1.5777
WIN__$5.8878
LUN__$7.3824
POT__$56.7989
T____$57.6742
TD___$84.3813
January 25th, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Thank you Tony for your insights. I am wondering TA and exit point for FLY and BIN.to.
I appreciate your help and kindness, Ania
January 25th, 2012 at 4:01 pm
This might just be the “blow off top” that usually happens right before a reversal.
January 25th, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Ray-Kitchener,
Are you still $WTIC?
January 25th, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Sorry, Ray-Kitchener,
Are you still long $WTIC?
January 25th, 2012 at 4:33 pm
You snooze, you lose! Just up and se e I have lost a significant amount of money on paper!
January 25th, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Lin
Re your post #73. Interesting. But do not understand. Do you want to give us exact thing to do with option on HVU? Please.
January 25th, 2012 at 4:36 pm
CJ
Re #79: I here you loud and clear and agree with your other half – that is if he were nagging me ! LOL I am thinking the same way about myself – hope you understnad what I am trying to say.
January 25th, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Tawny
Did you get your spell checker working? I left you a note late last night.
January 25th, 2012 at 6:03 pm
Ana: Yes with some hedging.
January 25th, 2012 at 6:04 pm
Chris/BC
re #99 – I saw your message last night – have yet to find where to get my English Dictionary on the Firefox site… I use the same version as you… just have not spent the time to look into it. Thanks for your help.
January 25th, 2012 at 6:57 pm
Hi all. Here’s something on the Year of the Dragon, which Don also mentioned on BNN:
http://www.moneyshow.com/trading/article/25/Charts09-26347/Year-of-Dragon-Is-Bullish-for-Stocks/
January 25th, 2012 at 7:34 pm
I was away most of today.. left $5k on the table with HGU.. damn stop loss! Always works against me and almost never in my favour. The “old” Slava would not have put a stop loss, would have walked away into the meetings for the rest of the day.. and now I’d be $5k richer! Oh well. Overall not a bad day.
January 25th, 2012 at 7:35 pm
This is week #4 of consistent stock market gains.. hard to believe!
January 25th, 2012 at 8:21 pm
new here but have followed these conversations … a very cordial board, nice to see …. not yet a trader as such but trying to balance work and grow an investment as the same time and so i hope someone / anyone can help with occasional advice, much appreciated…..i will ask one question for any comments, with everyone expecting a correction has anyone taken the other side and maybe no serious correction at hand just consolidation for awhile ..or is the smart thinking to expect a 5% down period … thx
January 25th, 2012 at 8:54 pm
Eve
Trust you are well enough today? I see you have posted a little, so I hope so.
Well, I am down a great deal on my trade as you know and looking for a comment from you… should I hang in there? Or take my loss. Timing sucks as I need to withdraw a substantial sum for Feb. 13th… hope I can make some of this loss back before then. Anyway, please let me know your thoughts.
January 25th, 2012 at 9:19 pm
Tawny You are only Bear Left here what that means ?????
January 25th, 2012 at 9:26 pm
COMEX Options Expire Thursday
With the gold market already more choppy than usual at the end of a two-day meeting of the Fed Open Market Committee (FOMC), Thursday’s expiry of February gold options could further increase volatility in the gold market.
Prior to the FOMC, the gold options market showed that investors would like to protect against downside risk in underlying futures, as most open interest is clustered around puts with lower strike prices.
Put options give the holder the right, but not the obligation to sell gold at set price by a set date.
George Gero, vice president of RBC Capital Markets, said that Wednesday’s gains could be partly attributed to huge short covering ahead of Thursday’s option expiration.
From;
http://freeinternetpress.com/story/Gold-Surges-Above-1700-Over-Fed-Reserve-News-33670.html
January 25th, 2012 at 10:10 pm
cut losses on hvu.to, i have been there, as recently as tre.to, trend is down, train tracks are going the wrong way, 7 or 8 bucks is major support, and it will stay down until may-august.
January 25th, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Hi Tony,
You mentioned about one of the seminar that will be held on March 3rd. Can you again share the link please.
Do they explain some of the strategies that you apply when looking at any stock? or yours is more experienced based of your own that you came up with.
I have never looked into options & then buy stocks accordingly, the way you look.
Can you share your thoughts around it please?
Thanks.
January 25th, 2012 at 11:01 pm
Tawny; Unfortunately it sounds like you have a large position in HVU.to I have been following this for awhile and feel sorry for you. There is virtually no volatilty in the markets. The markets are rigged…. Obama wants in again, the last things he wants to see is volatility in the markets. Europes issues have been throught the laundry already. There is several “so called experts” on this site who have been calling for S&P 1000 in Dec and an imminent pull back for the last two weeks. Forget that, with low interest rates here for awhile, allot of money in going into the markets – hence any pull backs are bought up.
January 25th, 2012 at 11:13 pm
CJ
Amzn,
is hard to depict if you recall I said 180 would be my entry point, now not every month as the same targets feb they you could see resistance between 200 and 210 there is more buying up to 225. but march they are selling eveything above 200 calls.
so Suggestion at 200 I would add a trailing stop just below probably at 197.
cog
the indicators are in a good trend but the 18, 38 and 50MA are going south so at 75 I would have a trailing stop at around 73.
options same thing as mentionned a few days ago they are buying the calls up to 75.
Ba.to
likes to move just below 150MA(currently 27.15) before moving higher, so I’m expecting it to move in this area pretty soon as the indicators are negative.
if it breaks below 200MA(26.96) I would cut my losses at 26.50
EDR.to
good call this one likes to test twice its MA before moving higher back in june twice the 150 before moving way higher, then came back in august to retest the 150MA. then oct it was the 200MA, so I think you have 3-4$ upside before retreating lower and retest a MA
SSL.v
Ok this can’t read the chart every MA is between 1.23 and 1.31 the W%R tells me its going higher. Volume wise earlier in the month had a big spike on a selloff but price came back to the upside and today price moved higher so I think its goinf to move much higher but were will it stop i can’t tell.
Win.to
even the 150MA is crossing below the 200MA, if it breaks below 5.31 get out when to come back with a 4/18 mama bull cross.
January 25th, 2012 at 11:30 pm
CJ
Lun.to
lately everytime price hits 9 it comes back up and this is what it did today, MACD even if macd h looks is below the 50 its bars is headed north. stick with it but don’t ask me for a target I would have to say a 4/9 baby bear is what I would look for.
POt.to us side says june 55,
we had 18/50 bull cross good there might be some resistance at the 200MA but should be short lived.
T.to
if it breaks below 54.79 i don’t know where it will stop on the low end. if you a tighter stop 55.61
MACD seems like it wants to move north so I would have to say this is your call.
TD
if the pull on this should stop at around the 200MA, the 50MA is moving north. but it has lots of resistance thru cnd options at the 82$ range.
January 26th, 2012 at 12:28 am
#23 Ana
wake up!!!! few months ago I spoke on about this matter but not intended to apple but more on how to get out of this global recession if we can call it that
but unless you change your way of shopping companies will continue outsourcing jobs.
when you go shopping for a new blouse do you look where it comes from (china,bengladesh…)
as long as people think the dollar store is the way to shop our economy will do poorly. or I agree I can not buy bananas from ontario, or oranges from the rookies, but I can buy a pair of pants made in canada.
so don’
January 26th, 2012 at 1:15 am
Tony #109/110
Got home about 11:30 pm and have been going over your notes; you are very kind to have taken all that time; Win.TO – disappointing – could have got out without a loss but couple of weeks ago you said target of $6 – been waiting, but another poor cdn tech stock *sigh* Did you know they are suing RIMM stateside???
May take the loss on TD.TO eventually or just hang on for the divs. Lun.to has been moving up with the recent copper price trend and of course my little Mexican silver mine needs a hot day for silver and the TSX.
T.To is the scary one – way too much money in it!
Tomorrow is another day – best get some shut-eye; again much appreciated Tony; you are a sweetheart! (I can say that being old enough to be your mother!)