ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Thursday January 26th
U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 6 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to news that private sector creditors are ready to accept an interest rate of 3.75% on Greek debt as part of a restructuring proposal. Previously, the Greek government proposed a 3.5% rate and private sector creditors proposed a 4.0% rate. European equity markets moved higher on the news. U.S. equity index futures quickly followed.
Index futures moved slightly higher following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for weekly initial jobless claims was 375,000. Actual was 377,000, up 21,000 from last week. Consensus for December Durable Goods Orders was an increase of 2.0%. Actual was 3.0%. Ex Transportation, consensus for Orders was an increase of 0.7%. Actual was a gain of 2.1%.
Fourth quarter earnings reports continue to pour in. Companies that reported overnight included MMM, Amerisource Bergen, Baxter International, AutoNation, Colgate, Ratheon, Lockheed Martin, Time Warner Cable, AT&T, Sherwin Williams, Netflix, Sandisk, Bristol-Myers, E*TRADE and Caterpillar.
Canadian reports started to trickle in. Potash Corp and Cogeco Cable reported less than their consensus earnings estimate.
Thomson Reuters is expected to open lower after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Neutral to Sell. Target was reduced from $28 to $25.
E*TRADE plunged $0.81 to $8.55 after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Neutral to Sell. Target was reduced from $10 to $9.
Hess added $0.43 to $57.74 despite a downgrade by Deutsche Bank from Buy to Hold.
Delta Air Line gained $0.21 to $10.17 despite a downgrade by Evercore from Equal Weight to Underweight.
UBS downgraded ManuLife and Sun Life from Buy to Neutral.
Technical Watch
Caterpillar, Inc. (NYSE:CAT) – $111.40 gained 2.2% after reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings and after raising its 2012 guidance. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock is testing its all-time high at $114.91.The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Yesterday, it completed a “Golden Cross” when its 50 day moving average moved above its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the beginning of October. Seasonal influences have just turned positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/clip_image001112.png "clip_image001[1]")
Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image85.png "clip_image002[1]")
AT&T, Inc. (NYSE:T) – $29.70 eased 1.7% after the company reported slightly lower than consensus fourth quarter earnings. The stock has a positive technical profile with short term concerns. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving average. However, strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been neutral since the beginning of October, its short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels and seasonal influences are negative until the end of February. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to its 50 day moving average at $29.05.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/clip_image003112.png "clip_image003[1]")
AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image397.png "clip_image004[1]")
3M Co. (NYSE:MMM) – $87.87 added 1.6% after reporting slightly higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock recently broke above resistance at $82.80 to complete a reverse head and shoulders pattern. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the end of October. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Seasonal influences have just turned positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image005[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/clip_image005111.png "clip_image005[1]")
3M Company (NYSE:MMM) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image006[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image274.png "clip_image006[1]")
Mark Leibovit’s Daily Gold Comment
Information on Mark’s services is available at
http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp
GOLD – ACTION ALERT – BUY
All metals pushed to new recovery highs yesterday as it became abundantly clear that Bernanke had signaled the ‘all clear’ regarding running his infamous ‘dollar printing’ machine for what now appears to be an indefinite amount of time well into 2014 and perhaps beyond. Physical assets, especially gold and silver are truly the only safe refuge in this kind of environment, though stock market indexes will clearly and temporarily play along for the ride. Gold entered my initial target range of 1700-1725 yesterday, so that may be a good place to pause a bit. Silver also entered my 33 to 35 initial target range. Next big resistance in gold is at 1800 and in silver at 37. Stay tuned. Can we see new highs all the metals in coming weeks and months? Anything is possible, but I’m taking it a day at a time. Like stocks, if you’re not long, you have to weight risk/reward if you choose to jump in without waiting for a retracement – a retracement which should come, but may not when too many suddenly realize they may have missed the train.
Responses to News From The Fed
Initial impressions in equity markets were positive. Equity markets responded strongest to news that the Fed intends to maintain an accommodative monetary stance until the end of 2014 instead of mid-2013. Ironically, the Fed’s reason for extending was anticipation of a less-than-robust recovery in employment, but combined by a muted inflation scenario. However, a word of caution! Response was surprisingly quiet. Volumes rose slightly, but remain below levels reached in recent weeks. Probable reason is realization that U.S. equity markets remain overbought.
Interesting Chart
iShares FTSE China ETF is moving higher despite no trading in China. A good sign!
Weekly Select Sector SPDRs Review
Technology
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $23.91.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but trending higher.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index recently turned positive.
· Seasonal influences tend to peak just after Apple reports its fourth quarter results.
Materials
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $31.19.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Consumer Discretionary
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $36.12.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 remains positive.
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Industrials
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $30.87
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Completed a “Golden Cross” yesterday when the 50 day MA moved above the 200 day MA.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Energy
· Intermediate trend is neutral. Support is at $63.56 and resistance is at $72.88.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators have returned to overbought levels after briefly showing signs of a peak earlier this week.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains neutral.
Consumer Staples
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $29.92. Resistance recently formed at $32.78.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators recovered after a brief period of trending down.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is negative.
Financials
· Intermediate trend changed from neutral to up after units broke above resistance at $14.08. Support is at $11.655.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is positive.
Health Care
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $31.50.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has turned negative.
Utilities
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $32.81. Resistance is at $36.27.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators have moved lower to a neutral level.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
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Friday, February 10 and Saturday, February 11
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Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
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Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Marathon Oil Corporation (NYSE:MRO) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC January 25th 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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January 26th, 2012 at 6:35 am
Hi Slava,
Sorry to hear about your stoploss.I might have sold mine hgu last night if my iPhone have better coverage but it didn’t load any pages so I slept and found out in the morning about hgu elevator up. Sometimes not having coverage also turn out to be good too in this part of the world.
Good to hear about you having good time with Russian rocket!
It is very stress free time here and stress free life here if one have lots of money . Otherwise not that good for normal people as prices are so high that is very hard for poor people to make ends meet.
Went to lots of malls and every big names like nike, adidas, Tommy are selling same clothes here for $100+ which we can buy in vancity for $50-80 range.hard to believe but true. Even the damn toothpaste is more expensive than us. How can someone making 3-10$ a day afford that?
Land prices are thru the roof and agricultural land we own here is worth $150,000-175,000 per acre and three years ago was about 50-70,000$ per acre. We can buy agriland in Langley Abbotsford area for about $70-100,000 per acre. Residential lots close to main cities in Punjab are 2-3 times more expensive than in surrey Langley area.
So in end it is not my father’s india anymore and prices here are not in normal person’s reach. That being said good news for us is that our land and house here is appreciating fast and already in 7 figures.
later
kam
January 26th, 2012 at 6:52 am
Hi kam. And I thought that I was in the land of opportunity (Arizona)! Gold is up this morning; I’ll likely be selling my HGU. This market is now on steroids, and will be looking to do some hedging as well.
January 26th, 2012 at 9:32 am
Good Morning Michael, Must be another beautiful day in Arizona. What are you currently doing with SLW ? Are you planning to hold or to move out again soon ? I see bid/ask is up today from yesterday. Thanks, Paul
January 26th, 2012 at 9:56 am
Nasty Gas pulling back today – not good for COG or HNU.to anyone holding HNU.TO ? I bought a little and it did well yesterday, but not well enough to cover my costs.
cut my losses or hang in???
Also COG has done it’s split. QTrade still has me holding original shares but I guess I have twice as many at half the price now
January 26th, 2012 at 10:03 am
CJ – nat gas report in 30 min. It will move after that – the question is which way?
If you don’t want to sell pre-report, watch the numbers they come up with – if its bearish you can sell then – prices expected to drop in that scenario. Good luck – this one is tough to time/trade.
January 26th, 2012 at 10:06 am
Anna/TO #5
Thanks Anna – where are you looking for the report info?
January 26th, 2012 at 10:14 am
CJ
http://ir.eia.gov/ngs/ngs.html
January 26th, 2012 at 10:17 am
Anna/To – How did you come by that one – interesting – counting down to the big announcement – thanks for that Anna! They nstill calling for Fog/Rain/Snow mix in TO this evening? We will be traveling the 400 South again tonight
Happy Trading!
January 26th, 2012 at 10:22 am
#8
CJ, that website is THE most important site for many (esp. on Thursday mornings)!
Also, you can look it up at Forex Factory – go to the calendar section – it’s not only for nat gas, but other news releases/reports as well – easy to see everything at glance.
Drive carefully!
January 26th, 2012 at 10:24 am
CJ
On Thursday, it is all about the Natural Gas Storage Numbers. Put in a stop loss under for protection right before the report numbers come out (in ten minutes), however give the stop loss some room, because it sometimes changes very fast.
Estimates are for http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-01-26/u-s-natural-gas-stockpiles-probably-fell-5-3-analysts-say.html
January 26th, 2012 at 10:38 am
Twany,
How are you? You usually post in the am.
January 26th, 2012 at 10:38 am
Hi Michael,
Congrats on your HGU and other silver positions!!
Unfortunately I missed HGU. BTO.to was my gold stock though I could have traded it better then I did.
What are you doing with your silver stocks and are you are getting interested in NG?
January 26th, 2012 at 10:41 am
Lin and Tony:
Thanks for your comments yesterday, I was out for most of afternoon so just wanted to say thanks.
January 26th, 2012 at 10:46 am
Natural Gas:
This is a very, very difficult market to trade in. Futures trade around the clock and with storage numbers reporting on Thursdays, this is really not a market to pop into, you have to know the volatility it is capable of.
This sometimes trades right on the storage numbers and then changes to the future weather! Very difficult to trade at the moment.
January 26th, 2012 at 10:47 am
Kay
you’re welcome.
January 26th, 2012 at 10:48 am
Nick
I am here and hanging in there… after having a good study of one year chart of the VIX and HVU, I have decided to hang in, at least for now. Seems like it cannot get much lower and the upside can be fast and furious. I have been concerned because of the Presdidential Year history for the Dow; but had a look at expectation last year for the cycle, compared to reality and it was a total miss. So, same thing could happen this year. Sometimes it is difficult to look at a situation rationally as emotions can get in the way.
January 26th, 2012 at 10:50 am
Twany,
4 & 9 ma just crossed the 18 on the 5min chati
January 26th, 2012 at 10:55 am
CJ
I posted my analysis on the companies you gave me late last night?
January 26th, 2012 at 10:55 am
Markets can stay overbought for some time….. it maybe un-natural, but so is emergency zero percent interest rates for an extended period of time… 2014 now….This is fuel to stocks, like pouring gasoline on a camp fire. Not saying there can’t be a correction, but it should be more of a pause… on the way UP.
The DOW has made a buillish “Golden Cross” some time ago, the S&P 500 is in the process of making one, and the TSX is lagging, but very close to breaking out above its 200 DMA. The TSX weekly chart is more telling as it shows a tendency to bullishness and a climb that looks like it will develop into a Golden Cross.
Since the DOW and the S&P 500 have already done this break-out, no reason to expect the TSX to not do this eventually.
The US economy has show signs of life… I’m bullish and have been bullish since the OCT. lows. Still over 200% invested in margin account… letting it ride.
Margin and RRSP outperforming, making new highs daily. Can’t complain.
January 26th, 2012 at 10:56 am
Twany,
I was hanging on to Jcp , big move up but did not see any news, so I sold at 38.43
January 26th, 2012 at 10:56 am
Anna/TO – I thought the report of gas storage lower would increase demand/price – but COG & HNU.TO both falling – Futures also continue negative
January 26th, 2012 at 10:56 am
Cj
did you have a chance to read it.
January 26th, 2012 at 10:57 am
Paul. I missed my sweet SLW trade. If I owned, I would take some off the table. Close to being overbought and it’s gapped up this morn, and when there’s a gap up when the stock is trading the way it has been, the gap tends to close (at least for day trading). I sold my HGU this morning, but will hold on to my CEF.A.to and SVR.UN.to for now.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:01 am
Hi Ron/AB. Nasty gassy. I would probably stay away from HNU; however, there could be an opportunity over the next few days as, Eve pointed out, nasty gassy does well the last week of January. I’m more interested in PEY.to (missed out on ECA). As for silver, see post #23 to Paul.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:05 am
Canuck2004,Markert overbought can stay there for a while. I agree with you.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:06 am
CJ
when you get a stock split it always takes a few days before you see the shares modified at your end.
It happened to me once with Sap.to they split the stock 2:1 and i didn’t want to trade it until this was fixed because I wanted to get rid of 33% of my shares… The brokers have to manually make the change in to their system before and then the update is done automatically to all clients.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:07 am
Nick re #20
Curious so I check out JCP
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/news-sources/?date=20120126&archive=prnews&slug=DA42164
Good for you – hope you made a tidy profit!
January 26th, 2012 at 11:07 am
Good morning, I slept in and missed selling 1,500 shares of FM.TO… it dropped from $24.61 at the open to $23.45.. damn! It’s so important to pay attention.
In other news, CP’s results were rather disappointing (as I expected) yet the stock is holding up quite well (for now). I’d expect a few downgrades or at the very least some target price readjustments in the next couple of days. I’m short 800 shares and will stick with my short position as I’m expecting the stock price to pull back in the next few days.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:08 am
Hi,Michael
Silver guy, always gets nice trade with it..
January 26th, 2012 at 11:09 am
I picked up hgd.to at $8.11 as a hedge to my hgu.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:10 am
Nick
news from JCP, Mr Johnson (the same who was behind the apple stores)
they menhoutionned they will reprice every items in the stores. and there should be a conference in the next few days.
Just because he is behind the apple store and decides there will be some changes in the store people see this as good news.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:12 am
Hi Tony,
Thank you for your analysis of COG in #90 yesterday.
Wendy
January 26th, 2012 at 11:12 am
Tawny
re, spy March 120 put, that is one of option trade to hedge people’s long, and with less money.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:13 am
Tony #22 “it” ??????? The NG report – or your posts to me last night??? I replied in the wee hours if you have not read it.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:16 am
Tony #26 – I bet they take more than a few days – takes almost a week to transfer funds from one portfolio to another. Today it is taking forever to come up with a quote, and 9/10 it sways symbol not found Grrrrrr frustrations!
January 26th, 2012 at 11:16 am
slava,
fm, already told you 25 resistance level. cp hunter harrison until this name is in cp yard don’t expect cp to move lower.
now if you go about my comment from tuesday what cn should do this would have a reverse effect on both stocks.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:18 am
CJ
didn’t get a chance to read yesterdays post.
will go and read it right now.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:19 am
Michael,
I’m just starting to get a little interested in NG so I also missed ECA. I’ll have a look at PEY.to. Thanks!
My silver sob story is MFL.to. I had it on my buy list after watching it for awhile. Then woke up to find it was bought and had jumped up by 25% … arggg
January 26th, 2012 at 11:21 am
Slava, I’m curious as to why you would bother ‘hedging’ hgu with hgd (or any other pair)? I can’t see any advantage over simply selling some or all of your hgu and waiting for a re-entry point. Managing one position has go to be easier than managing two.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:22 am
Thanks Michael. Sold SLW. Holding onto AXR. Save the receipt for your beers today. I’ll reimburse. Paul
January 26th, 2012 at 11:25 am
Tony, Twany
Thanks for the information
January 26th, 2012 at 11:35 am
Hi Eve and Tony,
I am still hanging to FLY, where do you the stock goes from here: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FLY&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p39363438332
Thank you very much, Ania
January 26th, 2012 at 11:37 am
Hi Paul. Thanks for the offer. I’ll be drinking American beer today (had a Kona pale ale yesterday), so I hope you have some US Dollars! Don’t worry, I love the happy hours down here, so it won’t cost that much. As for AXR, keep a watchful eye on it. This stock (according to what I can see on my free stockcharts.com) pays a lot respect to the Keltner channel. It touched the upper limit of $7.70 or so today. I can’t see if this is true further back.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:38 am
Greg
are you greg/tw are you the one and the same as greg/ds?
why go hgu/hgd. here is a simple explanation,
I gave this technique a few weeks ago,
by buying 50% of one and 50% of the other if you increase one by 5% the other should lose 5% then you have 0 profits. hen you could sell the loser and invest all into the winner and come back when you made 20 to 30 % and try to see which one will lose so if you are right that you think price will come down well at least you will not have lost to much profit as you can switch on the right side of the trade.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:38 am
LOONIE almost @ par!!!
January 26th, 2012 at 11:39 am
Ania
did I give you my analysis on this one or not? no recollection.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:42 am
Ania
Fly, Are you talking about fly leasing if so it has used the 18MA as a short term support as it moved higher on it.
macd since last week has been moving higher. so this looks good for this one.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:44 am
Tony,
I didn’t see your reply, I have asked the question, yesterday.
Thank you , Ania
January 26th, 2012 at 11:45 am
Greg, long term I believe in HGU.. so in one of my accounts I’m holding a position purchased at higher than current price. From time to time I buy more hgu or hedge with hgd in my other account as a trade depending on what’s happening on a particular day.
I put a stop loss at $8.15 on hgd when it moved to $8.17 and am already out of hgd.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:46 am
Tony,
Yes, I am asking re: FLY Leasing. I was wondering the exit point and how high can the stock go. Great Thanks, Ania
January 26th, 2012 at 11:48 am
Hey Tony, I think CP is all talk and not much progress… also, from what I understand it will be extremely difficult to change the board. Ackman’s fund only owns 12% or smth like that.. I haven’t done the research as to who are some of the other shareholders but making a major change by proxy rarely works, esp. when existing CP shareholders are quite happy with the recent movement in share price.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:49 am
Tony HNU.to fallen to $5.00 should I get out or is this gg to come back eventually?
January 26th, 2012 at 11:50 am
Hi Tony,
Thanks for the explanation. Up until the last couple of days I’ve been an occassional lurker on this board. I’m a completely different person from Greg/ds?
Mathematically you make alot of sense but I think it would be a difficult strategy to pull off from a practical standpoint. You’re timing and focus would have to be very good. I guess it would be a good way of betting on a potential break out without having to worry about setting an initial stop loss point.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:51 am
Ok this was my next comment
funny feeling but think its time to get out of the financials.
not now but before the day is over I wish you take some profits or take some loss for the time being.
better yet have a traling stop between 3 and 5% below the current price. I rather have my trailing stop 3%
January 26th, 2012 at 11:52 am
Hi all. Speaking of nasty gassy, was the inventory build a lot more than expected? At first, it looked bullish, then within the hour, the traders blew gassy down.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:54 am
Ania
fly if price breaks below 18MA, i would try to catch the rebound the to 4MA or the 9MA and then would get out.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:56 am
I use buy EWC to hedge my USD hold.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:57 am
WOW Slava,
You set some incredibly tight stops! 2 cents below current price is almost guarenteed to get hit. Looks like it worked out ok for you today though.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:57 am
I buy EWC to Hedge my USD.
January 26th, 2012 at 12:03 pm
CJ
#10 Were you able to get a stop loss in on your trade in $NAT GAS?
#14 This was also directed to you, to be prepared for prices to drop on future weather reports.
I did not see ANNA/TO, posts to you, as I forgot to refresh my screen.
My last bit of advice, HNU-HND is a day trading vehicle. Maybe only holding when there is a definite trend established.
Ana
January 26th, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Greg, I got burnt with hgu/hgd in the past so I try to be very careful, esp. if I can’t watch the price. Also, when I buy 4k to 8k of hgu or hgd it’s a very large (for me) $ amount so I want to protect my capital. Off to work now with very limited access to my accounts for the rest of the day. Have a great day everyone!
January 26th, 2012 at 12:08 pm
Thank you, Tony, for your time and insights, Ania
January 26th, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Ania,
was there another company you asked for,
January 26th, 2012 at 12:12 pm
Hi Slava. It looks like the unionists are on the same side as the hedge fund:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/321929-bill-ackman-vs-canadian-pacific-rail?source=email_investing_ideas&ifp=0
January 26th, 2012 at 12:12 pm
Hi Eve,
COG is down to $32.45 and still going down as you predicate. I am watching COG for an entry point. Do you still is still going lower than 32.45.
Happy Trading, Ania
January 26th, 2012 at 12:13 pm
For those following OTC.to:
It’s on the move. Strong upward season that goes till the end of Feb has started. Note there is upcoming resitance at 54.00 though 56.00 may be attainable.
January 26th, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Tony, Eve
Your thoughts on OTC.TO?
some analysis would be appreciated.
Thanks.
January 26th, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Eve: Hope you are doing well, haven’t seen you on board for sometime.
Tawny: Hope your research comes up with some good news.
January 26th, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Tony,
Yes, I asked TA and exit point for BIN.to.
Thank you very much Tony
January 26th, 2012 at 12:24 pm
Sap
Ron Ab is right on resistance in the area he pointed out.
no on my part I see price getting ahead of itself so I see price retreating between 50 and the 4MA so this would be my entry point after this is done It will move higher probably 57-58 and then will have to see how it reacts.
January 26th, 2012 at 12:26 pm
Slava,
I completely understand and stopp losses are a good idea. I merely think you were setting them far too tight. 0.02 from the current price is pretty much in the bid/ask spread and certain to get triggered. For me, that would seem pretty much the same as just putting a sell order in on the stock.
Anyways, I’m not judging, Of course I don’t know your entire situation and even if I did it wouldn’t be fair to judge. I was just curious.
I envy you living in the Lower Main Land. I lived in Richmond for 12 years before moving here to Taiwan. Getting up for the market open at 6:30 am and being done by 1:00pm was nice. Here the N.A. market opens at 10:30pm local time and closes at 5:30am so watching the market for the full trading day here bites.
January 26th, 2012 at 12:26 pm
Ana #60
Still in it Ana – I bought in when Natty Gas was on an uptrend and the HNU.TO 4ma had just crossed the 9ma. Earlier it bounce up from the S3 Pivot (f) support and now it has bounced back from the S2 support. It may attempt the S2 once or twice and break through or it may head back to S3. Weather???? I’m a firm believer that WINTER will come eventually LOL !!! Hanging in for now….
January 26th, 2012 at 12:27 pm
Tony,
Here is the chart for BIN.to: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIN.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p91241380567
I bought the stock at 22.20 and wondering should I exit or hold for now.
I appreciate your generosity and insights, Ania
January 26th, 2012 at 12:35 pm
Tony can you give me your thoughts on BIDU, earnings are coming out Monday I believe.
January 26th, 2012 at 12:42 pm
NAT GAS – I would forget this trade and buy what JF Tardiff suggests – fracking companies TCW, CFW, FRC. I lost my tshirt on this year’s NAT GAS trade.
GDS
January 26th, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Hi Tony,
I was remembering you on Tues when Rim was going down ( I believe you said can go to 11). Also ipl.un is going down + mfc went above 12 & now coming back to 12. so good calls there.
Sorry I visit this blog sporadically & my comments/questions might seem out of time.
Post #54 you mention to exit financials.I was hoping you can give more details as I hold RY,ZEB,ZWB & MFC ( all in TSX).Thanks
January 26th, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Greg DS,
The fracking companies are interesting here and you might be right about being a safer wat to play NG. I’m monitoring GFS.
Is Tardiff out of retirement these days? I use to like listening to him way back when he was at Sprott.
January 26th, 2012 at 12:58 pm
tony,
re: January 25th, #114
“wake up!!!!”
Is that comment really necessary?
I was referring to the lack of media exposure to Foxconn, their working conditions and the fact that 14 workers have committed suicide, “as a result of horrendous working conditions.” Knowledge is power, and I expect the media to report as what expense companies are profiting. Ethical purchasing by consumers follows information of how products are made and at what expense they are made.
January 26th, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Ana
Wake up we the people are at fault in this whole mess, we want products to cost us less so that we can afford, them.
Yes the apples Nike, sony, mattel and others are faulty as even though they give their specifications doesn’t mean the subcontractor will keep up their end of the bargain.
January 26th, 2012 at 1:15 pm
Tony can you please comment on #52, #60 and #72 – Do you think I’m right to hold HNU.TO for now?
January 26th, 2012 at 1:15 pm
Ania
Bin.to
every thing looks over bought but still on the upside for now if you see price running away from the 4MA without tagging it I would have to say get out.
January 26th, 2012 at 1:18 pm
tony,
Knowledge is power. How, pray tell, do people find out the knowledge of the unethical treatment of people, if it is not reported? If this story broke on one’s television on the 6:00 pm news, I have confidence that the pressure that people would place upon these companies would have a positive effect on their suppliers.
January 26th, 2012 at 1:20 pm
Your comments are appreciated re the following:
Thinking of getting out of bears today??? Markets are O/B so what do I trade now.
Thanks.
January 26th, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Tony, CJ, Ron et al
What do the numbers tell you on EEP? The divdend is dynamite. Riding north of its 20/50 day. Not too volatile. I am thinking it a safe place to hide and make some yield….
GDS
January 26th, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Hi Tony,
Re: Post 81
Do you mean if the price run away from the 4ma on the upside, then I need to get out. I still don’t fully understand the 4/9/18ema.
Thank you, Ania
January 26th, 2012 at 1:22 pm
Rachel
I would stay away from bidu for the time being.
I would suggest asking me on monday to see if they are buying or selling the calls vs the puts.
it looks for now as if price could move to 120
January 26th, 2012 at 1:24 pm
RE. OTC.to
I like Tony’s retracement to 50 as this is roughly the downtrend line support which I respect a lot. There is also horizontal support at the breakout at around 51.20 that might provide a buying opportunity.
January 26th, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Ania here is a chart of the price running away from the 4MA
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HGU.TO&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p66563072420&a=252722252
January 26th, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Ana, this Foxconn story has broken it’s been in the news for quite sometime. There’s no conspiracy of silence here. There was a rash of suicides at Foxconn a year ago or so ago and there’s been another rash recently. Both have made the international news and the local news here in Taiwan and in China.
January 26th, 2012 at 1:25 pm
The latest interview about APPLE on CNBC:
“They execute especially well!” Really good pun here!
January 26th, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Greg/TW
I was speaking about the media in North America. More emphasis should be placed on this issue. That is how things change.
January 26th, 2012 at 1:34 pm
Greg DS #84 – I’m in ENB.TO in my TFSA – why do you prefer the US side?
EEP – 4/9/18 is in right order – price holding close to the 4ma – right at R1 resistance, but nice long trend RSI, MACD H & Full stochastics all point to further upside, but watch volume – pretty scanty.
Maybe Tony can look at the options and what they indicate.
January 26th, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Creg DS:
They are SELLING the Feb calls 32.50 that does not bode well!!
TONY????
January 26th, 2012 at 1:43 pm
So was I, I read and watch the N.A. media. You also have to remember the social situation in China. These workers aren’t prisoners. They are free to quit just like an employee in anyother company. Look at the numbers we are talking about what 14 suicides? Out of how many thousands of employees? Did you know that the suicide rate at Foxconn is half the national rate. The reason it’s been getting airplay here is it is good politics for the PRC. Also, have it your way. Make it a paradise and when the factories close what happens to ALL of those thousands of people? They go back to their farms eeking out a living or perhaps they take their chances in one of the state owned coal mines.
Yes I guess 14 suicides would make a juicy headline or 30 second sound bite but there’s always more to the story.
January 26th, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Ania
I wanted to put you a chart with a 4/9/18 but seems they are all out of range. or deleted.
Once you read post 88 use the 4/9 cross as your bull or bear indicator,
I added the 18, 38, 50, 100, 150, 200MA they are great indicators to use as past support or resistance.
the more MAs crosses the one MA the more push you will get in that direction.
January 26th, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Greg,
Re #84, I also watch ENB.to though I don`t own it at this time. I agree with CJ`s TA observations but I would also keep an eye on the trendlines as well:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ENB.TO&p=D&b=9&g=0&id=p78648486174&a=255186142
January 26th, 2012 at 1:52 pm
ENB.to:
The uptrend line is acting as resistance for the time being. It needs to clear this for a buy.
January 26th, 2012 at 1:52 pm
Greg/TW
It is not ever wrong to have a better world.
Your post leaves me speechless.
January 26th, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Really? Rationality leaves you speechless? Look I’m not going to defend Foxconn or say that they care about their employee’s but you need to look at a situation objectively rather than emotionally.
You say you want a better world? So in the name of that better world you would threaten the employement of 800,000 factory workers at Foxconn in the name of what? 17 suicides. Have you read any of the details of this story? Seriously, there have been more suicides at the US postal service!
So how much misery are you willing to spread in the name of your better world?
There’s nothing wrong with asking questions but jumping to conclusions is not helpfull.
January 26th, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Muntazir
sorry for not responding earlier,
now about those rimm ipl and mfc, have no recollection of what I said about them when I said it must understand, with all the comments that come thru my mind is a bit overused probably need some brain food.
now as I said earlier on the financials i think they are overdone.
I took my profits from the banks. remember I said a few weeks ago NA vs Slf i went with slf made a nice 10% instead of 20% but I’m happy for the time it took to make that money have nothing to complain about.
especially if you look at the volume on zeb was at its highest last week HFs were selling and I recall mentionning about options on zeb and zwb with a high volume of contracts and the price its at looks pretty darn close to what I mentionned the last time.
RY same thing options were giving us upside potential in this area.
now if you look at slf today 5000 contracts at 21$ for feb so I’m waiting for a 5-10% pullback before entrering the trade again.
January 26th, 2012 at 2:14 pm
CJ
34.5 to 35 I would take my profits and run.
recall prediction is not an exact science it its like the weather man when he says there is 70% chance of rain doesn’t mean it will rain.
so when I said win.to 6$ 5.85 for me is close enough.
January 26th, 2012 at 2:15 pm
oops cj
eep 34.5-35 you run, why you ask they are selling the april 35 calls.
January 26th, 2012 at 2:23 pm
TONY:
I was helping Greg DS in answer to #84. I did warn him about them selling Calls and we were looking for your confirmation (goodness knows I’m not an expert at reading options!) Still looking for your reply to #80 PRETTY PLEASE??
January 26th, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Tony,
Can you give me your outlook on AC.B.TO. Looks like huge volume today. It made a new low of .95 on Tuesday. All indicators look like the were overbought but the 4 hasn’t crossed the 9 yet. I bought some at .96 would you hang on. Where would you get out. The pilots are still having issues with the company, not sure what the outcome will be.
TIA DD
January 26th, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Ana, Greg/TW
i have spent enough time writing how we can fix the issues we are facing until someone decides to act upon it this world will not turn on its axis as it should.
But i am a mere mortal, and unless we want to fix this world we live in, we will never get passed the issues cause us investors don’t want a company to have 1.3 EPS when estimates are for 1.04. we want more.
but in the mean time we also want more of ipads, tvs for a fraction of the price it costs if done in NA,
so as the french saying goes peut pas avoir le beurre et l’argent du beurre. can’t have the butter and the money it costs.
so we have to decide are we willing to have factories around the world and produce ipads at 50$ and sell them 600 or have ipads built for 500 and buy them at 2000$
January 26th, 2012 at 2:31 pm
CJ
HNU i think will retest its low area between 4.2 and 4.90 area before heading higher.
but not to forget it erodes itself through time.
would I keep it here no want to see price fall some more and then try my luck at it with indicators telling me its go time.
January 26th, 2012 at 2:33 pm
Hi, Tony
How can we tell they are selling put or call? Thanks!
January 26th, 2012 at 2:36 pm
DD
I still hate airtravel.
mid dec big volume on a selloff and today big vol and buying that is good.
about macd its moving north, w%R already above 50 good sign, how high is a wild guess 1.25 could be nice but this is pure speculation.
January 26th, 2012 at 2:42 pm
TONY #106 – I thought there was a go signal – what was wrong with my analysis at the time? Oh well – spilt milk again
January 26th, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Hey team, any good short candidates that you can recommend?
January 26th, 2012 at 2:52 pm
Joe
On the M-X its more complicated to clearly see it if price its buying or selling puts.
I only look at where price is compared to the puts usually you will see price 50 and highest volume on the 45 then I would say they are buying and I will target this level. In canada since we don’t trade options that much its so more targets to reach.
You could also look what is current bid and ask and last sale. if last sale is smaller than current bid they are buying it (demand is increasing so will price for the protection insurance)
I prefer looking at option calls for the M-X.ca if price is currently 50 and I see activity either at 49,50,51 for the current month it will move higher how high don’t know unless there is activity at another target lets say 55 then I would say this is where I’ll target.
if instead look at osk.to price was in the 11$ yesterday and they were calling july 14 now I know I have big resistance at 14,
if in july I would have seen only volume closer to 11(10,12) then upside potential wouold have been unlimited.
January 26th, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Slava
canadian financials. are ready to be shorted just for you. just as I told you not so long ago 82 on td was a nice short and look at now 77 and change.
but not for long. until end of feb but IU would go long gold. as that is where is all the activity for the time being they are all there.Yri, osk, K, abx, g
osk 14, abx 56 g 54, k having difficulty reading 12 for feb is where all the activity is being held. yri 21
January 26th, 2012 at 3:02 pm
OK thanks on EEP.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:06 pm
HNU went to high to fast.
you want it to retrace to this level to form what is called a W as price moves higher retest the low area and then moves higher. with low volume as everyone bought at the middle being scared of missing the upside there is no push highr as HFs are smarter then we think they let it come back and then when we are scared of loosing then they simply remove their shorts and buy all they can and then slowly they make us fell stupid.
I know I’ve been in that situation oh so many times that I did the stupid move of buying when this 10% move has happened and then selling and then crying my eyes out. just to see it move higher and higher.
now I wait til price pulls back put 5% protection below the 1/2 half of the W low and or wait for a 4/9 confirmation.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Thanks Tony, would have held on but sold AC.B @ 1.06, made .10. I just can’t hold on to stocks when I have made a profit. I am always scared of loosing.
DD
January 26th, 2012 at 3:11 pm
CJ
one last comment have you seen the volume on hnu for today? all the selling was done before noon and now all newbies are getting slaughtered I’m keep my rage to buy in a cage
January 26th, 2012 at 3:16 pm
DD
i know how you feel. as the 50MA is current resistance but support in the .95 but with volume spike I think it had room to grow but airlines are so unpredictable that I prefer things that make more than 200$ a flight.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:17 pm
I’m expecting a pull back un short time. But I really wonder what I should do with my mining stocks.
I gained from 4%-9%.
Any suggestion on FR.TO?
January 26th, 2012 at 3:19 pm
HNU is a good short, not the other way around.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:20 pm
DD
if you take a look at Bac you will see the exact same thing happened earlier this month in volume spiked and price rose since and this is exactly what I think will happen to it.
you should have had a trailing stop 5% below .95$ and let it ride.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Kay
Re #69. I said that I had done some research – just studying what has happened past year with VIX etd. I do not like the way HVU plays out comparitievely. But I am holding it for now.
Hope you have not sold your bears. FAZ? Looks like financials are going down as Tony said. HFD would be good too. Financial seems to be the worst sector performer today on the TSX.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Hi Micheal,
Re-2,
true things but with all that wealth there is also lots of property crime because people with power misuse it and politicians are biggest crooks you can find in this part of the world.
anyways I also sold my hgu within first ten mins of market open(8pm) at market order and was sold at 13.48 n 13.47. pretty much top of the day. We went on a party and i just came to see that it was a good decision.I am putting in an order to buy it at 12.94 and going to bed.hope all folks are doing ok along with Slava as I only read 5 posts and am half sober and too tired to do anything.
later
kam
January 26th, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Tony #114
Nothing goes “too high, too fast” if I am riding it up LOL!!!
HNU Price below the 4ma – Is that what you mean by “you want it to retrace to this level” or do you really expect it to go lower yet?
“now I wait til price pulls back put 5% protection below the 1/2 half of the W low and or wait for a 4/9 confirmation.” The 4/9 confirmation was there when I bought yesterday and is still – ???
You also said “with low volume” Volume has been quite high last few days, higher still today but sellers not buyers.
I really struggle with your explanations sometimes Tony – sorry
January 26th, 2012 at 3:25 pm
Slava , You can short HVU.to . Half of the capital that you want to use = short at EMA10 and the other half = short at EMA 20 ( just in case the price will go up to EMA 20 ) . Use TVIX if you have an acoount in US $ ( better volume ) .
But for that to happen you will need a small correction in S&P 500 , correction that will happen sooner or later .
January 26th, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Young
I expect fr to move in the 17$ area or around the 50MA and then move higher.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Hi kam. Good for you; I sold HGU at $13.44. I have found that when gold and silver stocks are in an uptrend, you can sell in the morning if it gaps up (usually within the first hour; often within the first 15 minutes) to get the high price of the day. I’ll look at tomorrow when I’m hoping that it will gap down. Nite nite.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:28 pm
Micheal
Adding to #122,
One more thing that abx.to and g.to are both stuck between 50ma and 200ma right now and couldn’t hold 50ma and g.to 200ma. what can they do in next 30 mins might change this story.So pretty good resistance around here for hgu holders along with 4ma tony runaway child formula.
kam
January 26th, 2012 at 3:28 pm
michael
the gap up is in the first 30min i find as its just before the west start trading at 7am.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Thanks Tony, I have traded stocks and made a bit of money, but I have lost alot on those little ventures. I know you’ve heard that over and over. I am still holding on to some of them hoping for a rebound(you’ve heard that before too!) Anyways I have been following your theory and practicing (on paper) I still have alot of fear of loosing. I would like to be fully confident before I start trading daily. I am now taking the free online courses on Online Trading Acadamy like you suggested in the past. I do not participate in the blog as I am still lacking confidence, but I hope to in the future. I just wanted to let everyone on here that it is a great learning tool and I appreciate everyones input, you guys ROCK.
DD
January 26th, 2012 at 3:30 pm
kam
expect this summer abx and goldcorp in the mid 50 area.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:33 pm
DD
good for you as learning is the tool for success.
I haven’t heard the horror stories I’ve lived them to loose up to 95% of my capital.
in one weekend. didn’t even got the chance of getting out. as it was all done during the w-e.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Thanks Tony on FR.TO.
Can I bother you again for ZJG.TO?
January 26th, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Tony,
Wow, and was that before you became a master?
January 26th, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Tawny: Away from home now, but before I left heart told me to buy some more FAZ, everything that I would like to buy is O/B or almost there, so hanging onto my bears and keeping myself warm. Good luck again to both of us and thanks for the update. Very kind of you.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Kay #134 – not sure if I would mention heart-talk on the board, the guys will be LOL, LOL!
But I understand…. you mean your gut, right? Nothing wrong with a strong intuition!
January 26th, 2012 at 3:52 pm
CJ – nat gas prices are very weather dependent and right now the forecast is waaay above average:
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif
January 26th, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Tawny: Thank you, indeed I should say gut feeling, trying to average down a bit so that I can unload when the times comes faster. However averaging down can be dangerous as well if it keeps going down. Seems like the market went up a bit in the last few minutes.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Hi Kam, I’m wondering if I should sell my hgu as well… 5,000 shares swinging all over the place is giving me a headache.
January 26th, 2012 at 3:58 pm
CJ
sorry should better explain myself… for at times I have so many things to think about that i go on but forget to structure all what goes through my brain.
ok yes I see the 4/9 already confirmed. as you recall using the MAs 18 is always the 1st resistance. you will encounter so this being said you should see it retrace and do a W shape. so price should retrace to the low of the 1st 1/2 of the W.
so wait the for price in to retreat in the 4.2-4.9 area before making a break for it on the upside if it should break below 4.2 have a stoploss 3-5% below.
January 26th, 2012 at 4:00 pm
DD
the 95% its not all my capital its all the capital invested in one company called fannie mae bought it on the friday and on the sunday the treasury took a 95% stake of it.
so my 8000K was worth 400$.
January 26th, 2012 at 4:03 pm
young
zjg if you look the 150MA was previous resistance and its there now
so I would think of either putting a trailing stop 5% below from here or simply sell out.
January 26th, 2012 at 4:03 pm
Anna/TO #136
Thanks for the info – I will chew the cud on that overnight, perhaps sell tomorrow.
Time to head South to the big smoke. Thanks Anna. Have a good evening.
January 26th, 2012 at 4:05 pm
Kay
I kind of expect the market might go up in the early morning – gut-based – when I will likely add to bears – took starter positions in HFD and FAZ, and I added to UUP. The S&P has been up and down this week but is almost back where it started. Does not seem to have enough energy behind it to really push up – sounds like I’m talking about myself! LOL
January 26th, 2012 at 4:07 pm
tony re #139… I am sure it is difficult to keep everything sorted out – so many questions to you! Wonder where Eve is… I am worried about her again. There is a lot of demand from you on this board…
January 26th, 2012 at 4:08 pm
DD
I learned the hard way, missed out on great opportunities, then it was all the earnings option and fed to understand simply relying on indicators doesn’t cut it.
January 26th, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Eve
Can you just give us word that you are okay, please.
January 26th, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Tawny, good point – I hope Eve is doing well. I’m going to check my email and see if she dropped me a note recently.
January 26th, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Tony:
And you are still trading, good for you, I am sure if that happened to me I would’ve threw in the towel. You’ve got guts! You have educated yourself well and I see it is paying off. This is what I am hoping to accomplish. Baby steps.
Slava:
I was checking out VIT.V as you’ve talked about this one, I think you own it. It had a volume spike today, maybe it is gonna make up some of your losses. The 4 just crossed over the 9, the MACD and full solistics are turning north and the W%r is above the 50. Maybe someone else can help on this
DD
January 26th, 2012 at 4:14 pm
tony
SPXU on the 60 min. 4 crossed 9. Is that significant?
January 26th, 2012 at 4:18 pm
Slava: #148 the 4 didn’t just cross the 9 I was looking at the Kinross chart when I wrote that, but Kinross looks like it maybe starting to turn around too.
January 26th, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Hi Tony,
Thank you very for the education, I will keep an eye on the the the 4/9 cross, including
the 18, 38, 50, 100, 150, 200MA.
Happy trading, Ania
January 26th, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Thanks Tony will do
January 26th, 2012 at 4:25 pm
DD, thank you. I recommended vit.v on here a couple of days ago when it was at $0.44 or so. I own 20,000 shares.. nothing too crazy. I have faith in this company.
Also, take a look at hf.to.. I bought 5k shares today.
January 26th, 2012 at 4:27 pm
CJ – one more thing about nat gas daily price trading patterns – watch out for noon (The Nooner
– that’s when weather runs/forecasts come out and it often influences the prices for the rest of the day – sometimes you can see the prices drop or raise dramatically depending on the weatherx outcome
January 26th, 2012 at 4:38 pm
Slava, Thanks but I don’t think I would invest in hf.to. I don’t think it has enough volume. I would be more comfortable if I could get in and out quickly because I have invested in those kinds before and it is hard to sell even below the asking price sometimes. DD
January 26th, 2012 at 4:38 pm
Hi Tony,
Sorry to bother again. I was wondering how you can add 38, 50, 100, 150, 200MA on stockcharts. I can add 3 parameters like 4/9/18ema.
Thank you very much Tony
January 26th, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Tony,
Ooops, I meant to bother you again
January 26th, 2012 at 6:30 pm
DD, by the way – good name! Double D – sounds perfect, I’m sure most would agree
..lol..
P.S. I just had to interject smth funny.
January 26th, 2012 at 6:36 pm
Hi Tony,
You usually mention green & red when quoting options. I would appreciate if you once again explain where to look for it. Also I was looking at xiu highest puts is at S17.50 & calls at $17 for feb. For march highest puts at $14 , 43122 & calls is 20502. highest call is $18, 30000+. Does this mean support is at 14 & resistance at 18?? Just find a big range for etf?? Thanks
January 26th, 2012 at 6:44 pm
Slava
I was thinking Dee Dee, my mind must work different.
January 26th, 2012 at 6:50 pm
mick/inv, I digress.. I have a very active imagination – never a dull moment!
January 26th, 2012 at 7:11 pm
Slava
NTR
It must be the new guy in your life.
January 26th, 2012 at 7:29 pm
NTR
mick/inv, yes, we get along very well
But will it last? I keep asking myself.
January 26th, 2012 at 7:34 pm
Slava
You keep this board interesting 
You are too funny
January 26th, 2012 at 7:37 pm
Mick/nv
Dee Dee, You got it!
January 26th, 2012 at 9:23 pm
DD
Sorry, but the only DD I ever knew had four feet, being a dog. The name they give this cute critter, stood for Daddy’s dog. LOL
January 26th, 2012 at 9:44 pm
DD
as they say no guts no glory
its when you put it all on the line that you know if it will be profitable, but just like in everything you must know your limits especially on the downside must be tighter than on the upside. and when something doesn’t work you must give up on it don’t try to chew on the bone. otherwise you get side tracked.
January 26th, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Tawny
spxu the 60min chart I love the volume it had at the open this morning but if you look closely spxu can’t seem to break above the 50MA, let the 4 MAs cross above it and then see how the indicators are trending.
January 26th, 2012 at 9:49 pm
Ania
as soon as you become a paying member you can add all of these. and all the other indicators that you want.
January 26th, 2012 at 9:55 pm
tony re #168
are you speaking of the “daily chart” re the 4ma above the 50 ?
I own some SPXU and will buy more if it breaks out and up. thanks
January 26th, 2012 at 9:56 pm
Eve
If you happen to check the board here – I sent you an e-mail along with some medicine!
January 26th, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Tawny
I gave you my view in on the chart you’ve asked me to review.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:18 pm
tony
Right you are but it is very close – maybe tomorrow it will cross the 50.
Thanks so much and will see your tomorrow. Night now.
January 26th, 2012 at 11:30 pm
Muntazir
today we are trading the month of February. price has been hitting 18$ for the last few sessions
Feb
xiu calls
strike op-int. vol
16 15
16.5 4000
17 5700
17.5 8800
18 8700
18.5 850
xiu puts
Strike op-int
15.5 15
16 4300
16.5 15000
17 21000
17.5 7500
18 1500
18.5 15
looking at these numbers think of a stone that you trow in the air in a closed room. when looking at calls and puts. were do you think it will start moving when you open your hand and do you think it will hit the ceilling or will it start falling before?
so looking at the calls and puts 18.5 looks like the ceiling as open interest has dropped so dramatically could it move to this level I really don’t think so I think it will start falling at 18 where its trading right now.
now where will it fall to on the calls at 16 the open interest is slim but there is enough to make a case at 16.5
On the puts side we have 16 with 4000 interested at this level.
So analyzing these two strikes I think price could plunge in the 16 to 16.5 area before heading higher depending on the time it takes to reach 16-16.5 area. if done in 7 to 10 days probably will see it rebound otherwise will have to look beyond February to see how it will react
Now in march there 5000 put contracts traded at the 17.5. This is someone who bought at a lower price 16$ and and now he doesn’t know what to do and decided just in case it drops lets buy an insurance policy as it is dirt cheap .35$ as for actual profit is 1.5- insurance =1.15 I would get a total profit of 1.15 in case I drops back to 16 well I can always recoup capital and profit.
as if it should decide to move to 14 you know where people are putting there money in insurance protection.
now for september we have the same case they are trading the 18$ calls now september is 7 months away anything can happen so for now I would not consider it as I prefer to look at most 3-4 months ahead as anything can happen between now and then.
January 27th, 2012 at 12:27 am
muntazir,
when i’m looking at red or green
1st off this comes from the delayed quotes from the cboe.
2nd look at the net column if its in the red or the green.
if puts are screaming green this means get out. if the calls are green get in.
if the calls are red look just like my previous example at vol and open interest with where it takes a beating.
if the puts are red this means they don’t want insurance.
if both sides of the isle you see relatively the same color or green or red (usually you’ll see more red then green.) stay on the sidelines until a definite side has won the battle.