ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Friday February 3rd 2012
U.S. equity index futures are higher in pre-opening trade. The S&P 500 Index added 13 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures moved higher following release of the January employment report. Consensus for January Non-farm payrolls was a slip to 170,000 versus a revised 203,000 in December. Actual was an increase of 243,000. Consensus for Private Non-farm payrolls was a drop to 145,000 versus 212,000 in December. Actual was an increase to 257,000. Consensus for the January unemployment rate was unchanged at 8.5%. Actual was a 0.2% decline to 8.3%. Consensus for January Hourly Earnings was an increase of 0.2%. Actual was a gain of 0.2%. Much of the improvement is attributed to warmer than average weather.
The Canadian January employment report was less than expected. Consensus was a gain of 24,000. Actual was an increase of 2,300. Consensus was no change in the unemployment rate at 7.5%. Actual was an increase of 0.1% to 7.6%. The Canadian Dollar moved lower on the news.
Fourth quarter earnings reports continue to pour in. Companies reporting overnight included Beam, Tyson, Este Lauder, Clorox and AON.
International Paper is expected to open lower after RBC Capital downgraded the stock from Outperform to Sector Perform. Target was reduced from $35 to $34.
Merck is expected to open lower after Davenport downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral. Target is $40.
Research in Motion slipped $0.28 to $16.93 after Jefferies downgraded the stock from Hold to Under Perform. Target was reduced from $17 to $15.
Aetna eased $0.04 to $44.75 after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Conviction Buy to Buy. Target is $54.
Canadian Pacific improved $0.34 to $72.25 U.S. after JP Morgan raised its rating from Neutral to Overweight.
Technical Watch
Aetna, Inc. (NYSE:AET) – $44.75 slipped 0.1% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Conviction Buy to Buy. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock touched a four year high earlier this week. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since mid-October. Seasonal influences currently are positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate at current or lower prices.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/clip_image00112.png "clip_image001[1]")
Aetna Inc. (NYSE:AET) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image18.png "clip_image002[1]")
International Paper Co. (NYSE:IP) – $31.60 is expected to open lower after RBC Capital downgraded the stock from Outperform to Sector Perform. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock touched a five year high last week. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the beginning of October. However, short term momentum indicators are trending down from oversold levels and seasonal influences are negative until early March. Preferred strategy is to accumulate on weakness closer to the stock’s 50 day moving average at $29.47.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/clip_image00312.png "clip_image003[1]")
International Paper Company (NYSE:IP) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image221.png "clip_image004[1]")
Canadian Pacific Railway (NYSE:CP;TSE:CP) – $72.25 added 0.5% after the stock was upgraded by JP Morgan from Neutral to Overweight. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock touched a four year high last week. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index has been positive since mid-September. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Seasonal influences are positive from the end of January to early May. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image005[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/clip_image00511.png "clip_image005[1]")
Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (USA) (NYSE:CP) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image006[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/01/image12.png "clip_image006[1]")
Mark Leibovit’s Daily Gold Comment
Information on Mark’s services is available at
http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp
GOLD – ACTION ALERT – BUY
With the exception of copper (again), metals were in sync to the upside yesterday as silver, gold, platinum and palladium all posted new recovery peaks. When we’re in a ‘markup’ stage, you’re either on the train or you’re left at the station. Elsewhere, crude oil was weak, but natural gas experienced another upward spike triggered by news. Gold into the mid 1800s and silver at 37, possibly 42 remain my next upside objectives.
Updates on Sectors and Equities with Positive Seasonality
Since its close on October 5th, the Industrial ETF is up more than 26%. Seasonal influences remain positive until early May. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. However, units clearly are short term overbought and showing signs of rolling over. They reached a short term peak a week ago at $36.92. Traders can choose either taking profits or withstanding a short term correction for a further upside move into May.
Since its close on October 5th, the Homebuilders ETF has gained over 48%. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. However, short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels. Units closed yesterday slightly below levels reached a week ago. Seasonal influences peak this week. It’s time to take seasonal profits.
Silver has gained 23.8% since recording its seasonal buy point on December 30th. “Sweet spot” is from the beginning of January to the end of February, but the entire period of seasonal strength continues until the middle of April. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of rolling over. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. A short term correction to its 50 day moving average at $30.93 is possible.
Platinum has gained 26.8% since recording its seasonal buy signal on December 30th. Seasonal influences are strongest from the beginning of January to the end of February, but seasonal strength continues into May. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. A short term correction to its 50 day moving average at $1,501.61 is possible.
West Fraser Timber has gained 32.3% since entering its period of seasonal strength on October 5th. Other Canadian lumber stocks also have performed well. Strength relative to the S&P 500 remains positive. Strength in lumber prices in the past week is a bonus. However, two words of caution! Short term momentum indicators for Canadian lumber stocks recently rolled over from overbought levels and lumber prices have a history of peaking in the first week in February. On the other hand, Canadian lumber stocks have a history of seasonal strength lasting until the end of April. Seasonal investors can choose between taking profits or withstanding a short term correction for additional upside potential into April.
Lumber Futures (LB) Seasonal Chart
Tech Talk’s Weekly Commodity Column
(Published yesterday at www.globeandmail.com )
Following is a link:
Following is full text:
Industrial Commodity Prices in the month of February
Investing in the month of February frequently is hazardous for your financial health. Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide notes that February is the second weakest month for performance by U.S. equity indices. The weakest month is September. On average, the S&P 500 Index has lost 0.2% in February during the past 60 years.
The interesting exception in February is performance of industrial commodities. During the past 10 periods, the month of February has been their strongest month in the year. Following is a summary:
The main reason for their strength is increasing seasonal demand during the spring as demand from key sectors such as construction and autos ramps up.
What about this year? Recent economic data suggests that history should repeat. Better than expected Purchasing Managers indices released before the opening on Wednesday by the Eurozone and China as well as slow, but steady economic growth in North America suggest that demand for industrial commodities once again will accelerate this spring.
A word of caution! Silver, platinum, gold, copper and aluminum gained more than 10% in the month of January. Technically, they currently are overbought. Preferred strategy is to accumulate industrial commodities following a brief correction in early February.
A direct investment in most industrial commodities is available either through the futures market or through Exchange Traded Products. Symbols for actively traded industrial commodity Exchange Traded Products are as follows: Silver (SLV $32.80), Platinum (PPLT $159.87), Gold (GLD $169.50), Copper (JJC $49.20), Crude Oil (USO $37.45), Aluminum (JJU $28.59) and Nickel (JJN $30.59)
Don Vialoux is the author of free daily reports on equity markets, sectors,
commodities and Exchange Traded Funds. . Daily reports are
available at http://www.timingthemarket.ca/. He is also a research analyst for
Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are his
personal views although they may be reflected in positions or transactions
in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management.
Eric Wheatley’s Weekly Listed Options Column
Good morning everyone,
My good friend and liege, Mr. John C. Hood, sent me a link* which, if you’ve been paying even slightly attention to my ramblings, covers some self-evident subject matter. In it, Barron’s states that options should have been used over the past five years by investors, as covered calls (and therefore secured put writes) would have outperformed holding shares naked in these perpetually flatlined markets.
(*Having never done this and not knowing if the hyperlink will work after Don’s copy/pasting, here is the link in full: http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052748704895604577179021942415512.html?mod=djembwr_h#printMode)
Notwithstanding the fact that I predicted this ten years ago (and have recently been sent the complete collection of my early-aughts commentaries with the prediction intact. Doubters can order their copy; along with anecdotes of my first wife’s murderous tendencies. All in all, she was a good sport) and that I still believe we have a few more years of this long-term directionless consolidation in the equity markets, the fact is that writing options will most often outperform the straight holding of shares. The further fact is that this isn’t a good argument in favour of writing options either.
In my first commentary here in October, I went over the fundamental thing that makes options and all non-linear derivatives different and, therefore, counterintuitive to people who are used to straight lines in their instruments: options are non-linear; their returns are asymmetrical. Those who say that “writing options would’ve worked” in most situations ignore the extremely salient fact that when they don’t work, you lose as much as you gained all of those times it did work. I’m not faulting Barron’s – the piece did seem to be more of an introduction and they did specify that options writing underperforms in surging markets – but the very fact that one sees a convincing argument in the frequency of success of options writes is disconcerting. Let me make an all-encompassing prediction right now: unless the stock market (or your specific stock) is in a secular bull run, options writing WILL outperform holding stocks naked every time. And, as mentioned, it doesn’t matter in the slightest because during those secular bull runs, holding stocks naked will markedly outperform covered writes and you’d wind up with the same returns had you never heard of options.
Why write options you ask (if you’ve never tuned in to this unpleasantly snarky section of Don’s site)? Simply because, as I will repeat ad nauseam, the returns may be the same… but you would significantly reduce the volatility of your portfolio, thereby skewing the risk-return ratio in your favour. This isn’t glamorous, nor particularly intuitive, but proper investing techniques for your conservative long-term nest egg of a portfolio rarely is.
Once again, I’m not faulting Barron’s at all for the article; nothing in it is incorrect, it promotes the use of options and the writer is obviously well-mannered, impeccably dressed and otherwise must be a truly wonderful, engaging person (being an options guy. As far as I know we’ve never met so there is no intent on my part to flatter someone to whom I owe money or favours). I’m just pointing out that, if we were in a rational market and all participants were fully aware of how finance works, the article would be superfluous.
Happy Super Bowl! (Having never procreated, I can’t really come up with a salient metaphor for the sense of anticipation I feel in the days leading up to my Patriots playing in the Big Game. I’ve been a rabid fan of the team for 28 years – I can’t believe that’s the right number – and we’ve been 3-3 in that time. The only other occasion I’ve felt this way was during my first few weeks at the Algerian Ministry of Finance, taking a damnably slow cab home in order to avoid using the facilities at work. The digression starts now).
Éric Wheatley, MBA
Options Analyst, J.C. Hood Investment Counsel Inc.
eric@jchood.com
Little known fact about John Charles Hood #15
John Charles Hood has travelled numerous times to Africa and doesn’t understand those last few lines. He’s almost camel-like in his ability to casually forego that which lesser humans cannot.
The World Outlook Financial Conference
Friday, February 10 and Saturday, February 11
Westin Bayshore Hotel, Vancouver, B.C.
Mr. Vialoux is presenting.
Here is the link:
CSTA News
Mr. Vialoux is presenting to the Vancouver chapter of CSTA on Thursday February 9th.
Topic is “Timing the market using a combination of technical, fundamental and seasonality analysis”.
Location is TD Waterhouse Investor Center Downtown
888 Dunsmuir Street
Vancouver
Time: 6:00 PM Vancouver time
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Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Forest Products Industry Seasonal Chart
Home Building Industry Seasonal Chart
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Why Wall Street’s Bearishness is Bullish”. Following is a link to the site:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/02/02/why-wall-steets-bearishness-is-bullish/
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC February 2nd 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: AET, CP, IP
February 3rd, 2012 at 7:25 am
To anyone who wrote to me yesterday on here – whether to make a comment OR ask for advice on a stock or ETF or the markets etc.:
I did write a response yesterday (in the evening) to ALL who wrote to me yesterday! So, if interested, that is where you will find those replies.
In my response last night to Kay, I wrote a bit on where the SPX might be heading to in the near term (based on the charts I’m meaning).
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 8:52 am
Good Morning Eve
Well now that the job numbers are out what is your thought on the SPX? A quick run to 1343 and a shorth correction?
Tom
February 3rd, 2012 at 9:24 am
Good morning Eve – I thanked you for your post to me re AMZN in the wee hours of the morning – you may not have seen it. Have a good day!
February 3rd, 2012 at 9:39 am
tom
employement numbers exceeded expectation and unemployment decreasing by to 8.3 from 8.5 Is really good this will probably trigger more confidence for the us market.
February 3rd, 2012 at 9:41 am
Tawny , Libby , do you still own HVU.TO ?
February 3rd, 2012 at 9:42 am
Huge volume spike on VXX this morning 13.3 million compared to the moving average of 15.3 million and only 20 minutes into the market…could this be capitulation? (I watch this ticker on freestockcharts as its pretty good at mirroring HVU).
Wishing I had the guts to wait until today for an entry into HVU….darn, but not worried.
February 3rd, 2012 at 9:44 am
Tom
this week I said through the options there was positive trading at the 1400 and somewhere in the summer I saw some call buying at 1600 for the SnP
All bear bets are off for the time being.
February 3rd, 2012 at 9:48 am
Ouch, my short positions are getting killed.. CP, CMG.. not good.
tony, do you think this rally has legs even after 6 weeks?
February 3rd, 2012 at 9:52 am
Libby , you entry HVU.TO at what price ?
February 3rd, 2012 at 9:56 am
#6
Libby, that’s how I track HVU as well!
Picked up some for day trade (8.95) – we’ll see how it works out – so far not great.
February 3rd, 2012 at 9:56 am
Slava
Look at marh 09 it took more 2 years before the rally came to a halt, and with the recent news which is positive we will have to see at 10AM how HFs feel about this news. at 9.54am I think the running upward is not finished.
February 3rd, 2012 at 9:59 am
Rick
$10.77
Depending on how the day develops, I may sell some higher later and buy lower to bring my break even down. I am more than happy to use daily swings to do this.
I once did this with a swing trade position and ended up with my break even almost a dollar below cash price!
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:01 am
tony, I know.. not sure what to do. It would be very costly for me to unwind all of my short positions right now. I’m down a lot. I underestimated the strength of this rally and didn’t cut my losses quickly enough.
The strangest thing is that both CP and then CMG posted rather disappointing results given their massive valuations but the market doesn’t care, just keeps taking both higher and higher.
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:09 am
Salva
There is a huge amount of resistance just above where the spx is today, take a look back to earlier in 2011. The 200 day moving average is at 1257 and the market is way overbought and complacent and ready to revisit this value.
Think about the black swans that are flying on the horizon too…
Your loss is on paper until you bail.
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:13 am
Read below and we see that “figures don’t lie but liars can figure” – looks like there will be continued manipulation during this election year…. so what can one do? As they say, “can’t fight city hall.”
“Looks like the good folks at the BLS heard us: it appears that the people not in the labor force exploded by an unprecedented record 1.2 million. No, that’s not a typo: 1.2 million people dropped out of the labor force in one month!”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/record-12-million-people-fall-out-labor-force-one-month-labor-force-participation-rate-tumbles-
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:18 am
Tawny
Do you still need me to call you? I need to get back on board with our local activities too but cannot remember who to contact for membership.
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:24 am
Libby, thank you for your support
I’m fully dressed today sitting at my desk perhaps that’s why my positions are going against me.. lol.. (in reference to my post #149 from yesterday.
I’m finding that I do best if I close my positions on the same day. This is how I can consistently make money. If I hold smth overnight, etc. (like FM short from yesterday speculating that copper will pull back today) – a lot of the times the trade goes against me. I just need to concentrate on what works for me.
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:25 am
Eve: Thanks for your indepth report last nite, much appreciate. Looks like we will meet or exceed the numbers for the S&P today. Any idea of next target, I read about 1400.
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:28 am
On Monday re buying bear ETF’s at that point in time, I wrote this:
we just can NEVER KNOW FOR SURE what news is going to come out that will completely negate ALL the indicators that tells us the markets are coming down – so, that is my reason for caution
——————————————————-
TODAY is that kind of UNKNOWN news I was referring to that could negate the picture for the markets coming down! This is why I always advocate being “cautious” rather than buying in AHEAD of what is “expected” to occur.
I also wrote this on Monday:
There is currently a reverse candlsetick showing on the SPX – this suggests tomorrow could be an up day. Also, the 4 day MA has not “yet” crossed the 9 day MA (going down into the 9 day) – so, THAT has not yet confirmed a sell off (JUST YET) – also, the 4 day is currently showing at 1318 – and the keltner top is at 1333 (right now) – also, the mid keltner is at 1297 and the SPX got to 1300 and bounced up today from there (to get to 1312 as of right now) – so, with the last day of the month often being an up month for the markets, then very easily, we could see the markets being up tomorrow – to get to its 4 day MA and MAYBE even give a sprint to the top keltner to give like a BLOW OFF TOP to this market – that kind of prioce action in 1 day would prepare the market for a sell off as “generally” speaking, when traders (not the professionals – but retail investors or traders) see the markets going up big in 1 day, they get excited and buy and buy – and then they get slaughtered by the big guys as the big guys will at that point sell sell sell – and thus drive the markets down.
So, even though stochastics gave a sell sighal last week, we could get a “fake out” day for tomorrow (especially too when Tuesdays tend to be bullish after having a neutral to bearish Monday) and do a big sprint up before the BIG DROP comes in in february to just freak out those novice traders / investors that thought the big move up at end of January meant more boig moves UP in the markets – yet, it simply meant (to the big guys), a chance to short things! So, THAT is a possibility that could occur tomorrow Just wanted to let it be known (as i’ve seen THAT kind of thing occur too often in the markets too )
—————————————————
So, we didn’t get a blow off top on the 31st BUT, the SPX going right to the mid keltner and then bouncing up from there – AND the fact that the 4 day MA had not yet crossed down into the 9 day – these have shown the SPX was poised to go higher in the near term – to vartious resistance levels which i wrote to Kay last night of these levels when I wrote this:
The SPX though is not overbought anymore on the chart – so, it does have room to run higher – the keltner top for the SPX is at 1338 – BUT there is resistance at 1333 (which was the most recent high for the SPX) – IF it gets above 1338, then there is price resistance again at around 1340 to 1345 – 1344 was the TOP reached in Feb 2011 – before the markets sold off and went down to 1249 on the SPX – fnny enough, that is around the SAME level where there is current support for the SPX – and as the markets LOVE symmentry, the SPX could just get up to that 1344 level THIS February before it sells off down to that 1250 area – this would be a mirror image of last February – and the markets LOOOOVE doing that kind of thing – so, that isn’t out of the question for THIS February.
——————————————————————–
This jobs report today may create for next week a “sell on news” kind of thing – this may have the SPX sell down BUT most likely not by all that much – maybe back to the 1300 area and then move up again (just to get the “overboughtness” out of the markets again as stochastics and RSI are once again overbought as of today – today for stoch that is). IF the SPX pushes through resistance in the 1340 to 1345 zone, then the next resistance area is 1356 (which was the high reached last July before the markets started to crash) and then 1370 (reached last year in May before the markets sold off to the 200 day MA of 1258 in June – and then recovered to 1356 by July).
The top of the keltner with the extreme setting of 3.0 is at 1350 – so, the SPX may be able to get up to that level and then sell down a bit from there.
So, these would be areas to watch for on the SPX.
Also, there is a Bradley date coming up in March – on March 3rd – this is when there is supposed to be a “major turning point” for the markets (that is what Bradley dates are supposed to predict) – that is around the time that Greece will know if it’s getting its aid package or not – and that’s when it should be known if Greece will default and whether the default will be orderly or disorderly – the date for Greece to get its next loan is March 20th – so, around that time period, with the bradley date too in there, this could be a market turning point which means – markets could turn around and go down BIG time since the trend has been for the markets to go up BIG time! The Bradley date though doesn’t mean the trend in the markets will go to the opposite of the current trend – it simply means a “TURNING POINT” in the markets (BUT, from what I’ve seen happen around these dates, it usually indicates the markets start going in the OPPOSITE direction to what they had been doing up until the point of around the Bradley date).
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:29 am
I feel like a sucker,
I sold my slf, and its rallying with the banks
must be the sheila Bair comments from yesterday, or yesterdays question to uncle ben about the canadian Bks better performance.
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:31 am
Now can it offically break above and hold above current resistance that’s the question
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:35 am
TSX looking very bullish with the 9ema crossing the 18. Stochastics looking overbought but not yet turning down.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TSX&p=W&b=9&g=0&id=p79814588266
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:38 am
SPX
I know it is just another forecaster, but I follow Carl Futia, and he figures SPX to go up to 1370 +/- before a correction. His long term outlook is major correction. However he will invest in these upturns. His website if you are interested is
http://carlfutia.blogspot.com/
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:39 am
Slava
Here is the deal yesterday there was no clear direction on CMG as there way to much call selling and put selling, today they finally decided what they wanted to do.
They finally decided its going higher and this with a current target of 415
My view Is take the 100% loss and go long with this if it turns out to be right you will have made it back, if I’m wrong and finally decides to turn down stop loss is 3% from 370 you sell it. and look to short it to 340
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:43 am
CJ
good call on the long run, you know the chart is a weekly chart,
so there might be a small correction but overall it should be a long positive road
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:49 am
Hi Canuck2004 and others. FYI, Canaccord issued a Sell rating on Manitoba Tel with a $27 target.
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:51 am
Michael
I have them on my radar and will invest if they pullback. Like their dividend.
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:58 am
Ray,
Something strange is going on with oil. Looking at a 10 min chart, the USD has been trying to reverse and go up since Feb 1. Oil has been acting as expected which is inverse to the USD up until 2pm yesterday when it has started to go up in unison with the USD. In your experience, what typically leads, the USD or Oil price?
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:01 am
HI Tony,
I would like to get your TA and option price for ws.to and ssl.v. I owned them both and looking for the target price to lock the profit.
Thank you very much as always!
Jeanne
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:04 am
tony, thanks for your suggestion in post #24, however given my luck, the moment I cover and go long the stock will drop momentarily..
I’ll just have to wait it out for now.
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:05 am
I see markets are starting to cool off a bit for now, perhaps we’ll see some profit taking into the close.
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:13 am
Tony,
You’re no sucker for taking profits when there was so much potential for a reversal. As long as you didn’t short anything, your fine.
I’m mostly on the sidelines now and just day trading until the dust settles.
I’m looking for long positions but in areas that may benefit from rotation and the market exuberance.
I’m also still continuing to watch for inverse ETFs opportunities but so far there is no confirmation of the setups that we have all been talking about for the past 2 weeks.
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:15 am
Hi All
Just had a problem with TDW.
Bought 2000 shares HSD January 31 put in stop loss for Feb 04.
Sold 1000 Feb 1 for small loss.
Sold 1000 Feb 2 for small loss.Cancelled Stop loss but did not confirm order.
TD shorted 2000 HSD today on stop loss order I thought I cancelled, for a large loss.
My account is not authorized to short stocks.
TDW just called and I had to buy the 2000 shares at a lesser price to cover the short.
They are investigating,but I’m sure I know how this will go.
Any advice would be welcome.
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:25 am
Hi all,
Does BCE.T look attractive here to anyone? I think support should be about $40.00?
Thanks!
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:30 am
#33
Paul, I’m with TDW as well. Had something similar happen and had to eat up the cost – they hid behind they nifty small type print/disclaimer: “Note: All Change/Cancel requests are subject to prior fills executed on the exchange, including those not yet reported on your account.” On the flip side I had another mistake that worked in my favor and made me some money, so I guess I got even.
Good luck with your complaint, sorry couldn’t be more helpful. Let us know how it turns out!
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:31 am
hi, eve,
I really enjoy reading your detailed TA of the market,thank you.
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:38 am
Ron/AB: Many of the rules we have followed in the past are very convoluted. We are in uncharted waters. There are so many geo-political events that affect prices that rules of thumb just don’t work as well. As all commodities are traded in $US, you are correct, that the inverse should happen. $US is up today, but look at the markets. The manipulated jobs number pushes the market higher – go figure. EPS in the 4th Q was lower by S&P 500 that the 3rd Q (1.25 or so). Liquidity will push this market higher. What ever happened to supply & demand? I guess there is a decoupling going on. As the saying goes, forget the news and play the trend. Did you buy today? I stayed away as the set up wasn’t there. Here we are, markets up over 1%, yet Oil is flat give or take 20 cents.
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:39 am
Ric
I think you asked about erf. do you see my post late last night.
And now about carl, a correction we have diffirent type of correction either in a bull chart or a bear chart.
Now back in november I was yelling off the roof tops that the end of the oct bull market was near.
A bull or a bear market takes more time to complete than it takes for the correction to reverse so if you are riding a bull market for 5months, and in one month you lost 50% of profits this is a typical bull with a bearish correction,
If you look at a monthly chart you will see since 1981 (this is the best I can get) it takes less time for the correction to take place then it takes to climb the hill,
from 1983 when this bull market started off, it took 4 years before we had a major correction and the correction in 87 lasted 2months for a 50% hair cut,
then we continued upwards for 2 years, then late 1990 in 2 months we lost 50% value
we had a 9 year uptrend in 2001 we had a 60% correction on a 2year period
And finally we had a 4 year uptrend that ended in 2008 which corrected the markets by more the 100% and lasted 6months,
since 2009 we had two correction if we can put it that way a side way correction in 2010 and 2011. but overall markets are higher then in 2009.
Now the monthly had clear supports here are the dates and the MA used for support.
now if you look at the chart back in ’87 ’91 the 50MA was its support,
’95 thr 38MA was support,
then starting in 96 18Ma was support which was broken in 2001 and found support at the 150MA level
in 2009 support was the 350MA
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:43 am
Hi Eve,
I deeply appreciate your insights posted yesterday. I find it very helpful and educational.
Have a wonderful weekend, Ania
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:54 am
Slava
you do another move on cmg take 50% out of your short and do a pair trade so the 50% you simply buy the shares of cmg if it moves by 5-10% up you simply decide to take out the rest of the short position and wait for price to hit 25% and then put it back on t a short position if it works by 5% you simply take back the longs and put it all for on the short side and let it ride for 20% then take 50% out and put it on the long side you do this with a 5% stop loss.
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:56 am
Ron/AB: There you go. Oil is flat. Dangerous territory. Best to stay away for now as we are right at the Central Pivot.
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:56 am
Any one know what’s up with ATC.V? Up 50% this week and no news and doesn’t appear to be insider buying.
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:59 am
Tony
Thanks for your post last night about ERF. IPO’s do have a negative impact on share price.
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:59 am
Anna/TO
Thanks for answering.
TDW called and said I made money on the trade.I thought a $500.loss
The strange thing they stated was that my cancelation of the stop loss was not triggered because of a problem with my password to do the trade.I don’t need a password.
It would seem TDW has many problems with thier computer program.Three problems came to light on this transaction alone.
Buyers beware of TDW.
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Sorry I feel like a drunk so reading is getting hard,
bce I saw something not to long ago on the options but don’t recall if it were 40 or 36 was it puts or calls have no recollection.
100MA is current support, but if it fails below 200 which is currently 1.40 below here.
but if 100MA fails as support expect 36 as next support level.
if you want to buy it wait for MACD H(6,10,4) to start moving higher, or W%R(7) to move above 50% to enter the trade.
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Paul
was this a naked put in an RRSP account if so I would have a chat with cifp. and see what action you can take against them as you can not have naked puts in an RRSP account
Source the instructor at Tradefreedom.
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Paul-R,
I was curious at first when I read about your problem. HSD has been falling all morning, so I thought that you should have made money.
I had an account years ago with TD Waterhosers – they screwed a couple of trades – so I closed it down.
I have a small account with itrade and have been unable to access it since Monday – a temp fix on Wednesday – but now I’m unable to get back in again. They tell me that it’s a system wide problem. Anybody else having this problem? I’m about to close it. They should rename it “ican’t trade”!
I’ve never had this problem with any of my US accounts.
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Tony,
It was a cash account.
TDW is not autorized to short trade my account.
TDW has problems with thier computer program.
Three mistakes were made on this transaction alone.Scarey.
Thanks for your reply.
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Ray,
I have not day traded anything today as I don’t see any setups that I like either. I’m watching to see how the market is reacting to this jobs data. I feel there is a lot of manipulation going on as well and i agree with you that the traditional market relationships are convoluted now. I am definitely trying to follow the trends for swing trades. The SPX could crash and burn right at these levels or it can continue going to the spring highs of 1370 or higher. All we can do is look to the charts for a confirmation of a particular setup. One thing i am sure of is the longer the market goes up without correcting, the harder the correction will be when it occurs.
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:21 pm
Jeanne
Ws.to to much of a guess I have my say if price does not touch the 4MA I’m either out or in as this is usually a reversal, need confirmation of MACD Hgoing lower or W%R below 50 I would have a trailing stop below 1.90 probably 1.87.
ssl.v stiking with the 4 no 4/9 bear cross insight. MACD H is going south but W%R still in positive territory, I would have a trailing stop just below the 9MA.at 1.37
if earnings were reported and moved this high as both just did in the last few sessions I would stick with them, it could mean good things
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:23 pm
Wayne #47 – no problem here with my iTrade account (TFSA)
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Wayne
I’m with VB and had no problems with them.
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Hurk
you had just in the recent days a 4/9 bull cross, W%R went positive a few days ago MACD also positive.
I would have a trailing stop here. If you missed it wait for a pull back
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Ray,
Another relationship to watch is gold and oil. At the moment they are acting inversely to one another. A risk on trade would see gold down and oil up. So far this is not happening.
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:35 pm
S&P 500
Weekly chart shows bullish “Golden Cross” long term bullish.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p36606930976
P&F charts show possible Bullish target of 1600.85
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$SPX,PLAADANRBOPADF1!3!1.0!!2!20&pref=G
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Re: #33
Hi Paul.
I had the same problem awhile ago, and the best I could get from them was to cancel the trading fees.
Don
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:41 pm
# 26-Michael
MBT: don’t care, hold it in both accounts for the yield. IMO longer term = 40 bucks.
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Wayne,
I do not short stocks so when I saw this trade this morning I thought it was a sale again at a larger loss.I was peeved off so I didn’t take the time to figure out what happened before I called TDW and post here.A little sleepy this morning.
TDW just called and said several issues have come up because they upgraded their programs a couple of days ago.A problem came up while I talked to the TDW rep just now.
I have had good service from TDW and can’t complain to much.I hope they fix the problems soon I don’t need too many mornings like this.
Good luck with “ican’ttrade”.
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:46 pm
43- ERF: recent share issue and low NG prices a damper on share price. However, nice yield and if one has a 5-10 year horizon, good buy at this level as part of a broadly diversified portfolio. Again 2.5% to 5% of portfolio, no more.
I am looking to add to this position, as soon as I can, unless something else more interesting comes up.
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Tawny: Haven’t seen you this morning, hope all is well. Probably selling half of my FAZ, a trade that went really bad. Also HVU is down a lot now, posters did warn there was no fear in the market as such HVU would depreciate itself. An “H”
Canuck2004: Appreciate your thoughts on the market, how much more upside do you see before a pullback. Thanks.
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Canuck, kudos to you – you predicted a bull market back in December when things were looking very bleak.
February 3rd, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Canucck2004,
Are you not wondering about a dividend reduction because the gas companies are losing money?
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Don S,
I guess I lucked out.They cancelled the fees and I made $107. on the transaction.
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Paul-R,
Whoo – hoo!! Yeah.. you lucked out well on that one. I wonder if “ican’trade” and “tdwaterhosers” share the same call centre. I got the same reaction to my question – “we just upgraded our program – system issues”! I very rarely go into this account – I’m leaving for Europe and transferring funds – the first time I’ve been there in over a month. Wonder how long the account was shut down?
The lesson here – make sure you get confirmation of trades. In my futures account, I keep a log, with fill confirm #’s – just in case there’s a problem. Of course, that didn’t help a bud of mine who lost a ton of cash with MF Global.
Best!
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Wayne, I’m not having any problems with trading through Itrade today.
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:17 pm
Wayne: Did your bud ever get his $ back from MF Global? Another Ponzi Scheme.
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:18 pm
Paul-R
Re: #33
Sorry to hear of your predicament.
I am no fan of TDW. About 12 years ago they took 10 days to sell a mutual fund I had. Normally they would sell it that afternoon or the next day depending on what time I put the order in. For some reason they did not do that. I asked why; they said they have the right to take up to 10 days.
I considered going to small debts court for the $2500 that I lost out on due to their slowness but after talking to the securities regulatory board I decided not to. The fellow I talked to said it happens quite often and it had actually happened to him who’s account was also with TDW. He said there was no recourse as they apparently do have the 10 days to execute a mutual fund trade.
Needless to say I have not dealt with them since. I relate the story often and find similar horror stories as well mostly involving TDW but also with other banks.
For what it’s worth in my opinion TDW SUCKS!!
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:22 pm
Can anyone explain to me whats a subscription receipt?
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Paul-R
Re: #62
Way to go. Sounds like they did the right thing. Maybe TDW is feeling the heat with all the competition out there.
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Tony,
“A provisional certificate entitling the holder to a fractional share of stock or the jointly held property.”
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Wayne re #47 : I have an itrade account too. They mailed me a new 16 digit acc. # (replacing the previous 6 digit user ID). I logged in today with the new # no problem.
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Again; between a rock and a hard place…. OUCH!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/greece-draws-line-unity-government-leaders-refuse-cede-further-troika-austerity-demands
But the markets appear to have become immune to fear! Complacency!
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:40 pm
Ok I’m confused Ron
So if they emit a subscription receit at 29$ what will do to a stock is is just as putting new issues on the market or what?
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Don F
A couple of days ago on BNN a rating company was showing the best of the trading companies in Canada.
#one -itrade
#two – TDW
I have had very few issues with TDW until today.One other a year ago I got my money back.
TWH did do some changes to their format a couple of days ago, so that is true.
TD I think is a much better company than they used to be in the past.I used to trade alot of mutual funds four years ago without issue.They did complain to me because I was trading out of their time limitations but that was all.Back then I was making 30% per annum,now its hard to make a buck.I’m still trying to hone my day trading skills.
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Kay Re #59
NTR
I have been busy with paperwork and some reading.
You have to do what you are comfortable with… and only you can decide that. I do not wish to influence that in any way.
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Paul,
its their time but the client is always right and not the other way around.
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Ray – Kitchener,
No. He figures that he’s out of luck – what everybody is REALLY upset about is that the CTC is not doing anything about it. Corzine should be sharing a cell with Bernie and Bubba!! Gives a whole new meaning of leverage!
don/to – I suspect that that’s what will happen. One chap I talked to told me that a lot of new cards just issued are not working – may have to send me a new one. But, I need to transfer cash – over the phone takes up to 48 hrs – online will transfer next day. Go figure!
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Tawny,
Wrote this for you yesterday – don’t know if you read it, so am reposting:
Tawny,
in case you haven’t read it – you copied and pasted to me that “I” wrote THIS to you:
“IF you see the markets only getting down to the mid keltner and then going up, then i’d sell hvu right there – at whatever level it’s at. you will be able to make up the loss (maybe $6000 at that point??”
So, yes, in your own copy and paste to me of my words written to you, as you can see, I DID in fact “suggest” you sell HVU IF the SPX pulled back to the mid keltner and then moved higher – which, the SPX did just that on Monday – and I posted on here right after that, that this suggests the SPX will be going higher – potentially to 1333 (resistance) I wrote – which hasn’t yet occured – I thought it might occur on Tuesday but it didn’t – but nonetheless, as you can see Tawny, I did suggest selling HVU IF the SPX pulled back to the mid keltner but bounced up from there – and that occured this week on Monday.
Sorry about the misunderstanding Tawny if that was not understood in those words I wrote to you – but that is in fact, just what I wrote (as you sent my words right back to me – so, you can see too that I wrote that).
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Wayne, ask for free trades as compensation. I complained to Itrade recently about a certain issue and asked for free trades – they offered 25.
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:55 pm
We haven’t seen Lin for a long time. I hope she is doing well. It would be very interesting to hear her take on the current markets. Hopefully she’ll visit this blog during the weekend.
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Eve
Of course, I saw that and your e-mail too… I do not have a response to half a story and IMO private e-mail’s are not meant for the blog.
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Slava,
That’s EXACTLY what I plan on doing when they call. Although I don’t do much trading -I have a sizeable chunk of cash there. It’s convenient when I am back in Kanucklstan to have an account I can access.
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Wayne, where in Europe are you heading? Oh how I miss Europe..
February 3rd, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Slava,
One week in the Azores – next week in Paris.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Does anyone own Blackberry Bold 9900 and how do you like it? I’m looking for a new smartphone and trying to decide between BB or Iphone. Thanks.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Paul-R
Re: #73
Glad your overall experience has been positive and you think they are improving. Things like what happened to me can happen at any bank. For me it happened at TDW but not at HSBC or the Royal where I also dealt with at the time and still do.
I just like to rag on TDW whenever I get a chance cause I thought their service at the time sucked.
Good thing I don’t hold a grudge. LOL
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Paris.. I die!
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Wayne, take me with you! I don’t speak French but I’m fluent in Russian and that’s all you need in the City of Light.. (because of vast numbers of Russians who live and visit there)
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:08 pm
tony, I was just recalling a very brief feeling of excitement when CMG dropped to $355 in the after-hours after reporting results two days ago… stupid thing is back to $370. Just can’t win with this one for now. May have to hold my short position for a long time, until it becomes obvious that the valuation is absurd.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:09 pm
tony, have you been to “La Ville-Lumière”?
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Can a Canadian open a brokerage account in the USA? Does anyone know? It would be great to be able to participate in after-hours trading..
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Slava
valuation maybe absurd when it hits 500$,
what will you do then with a losing position???? what will your short be worth 0$
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Slava
you should be able to trade the US after hour markets for a stupid reason you can’tin canada but you can from your canadian broker trade anything that moves in the US in after hours.
thats how I got into Csco back in 07
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:14 pm
been a few places in france, Italy, switzerland, should be going to see Belgium this summer.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:16 pm
oops you can’t trade canadian stocks in the after hour unless there is activity on the us side.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:16 pm
RGR – looks overbought but no signs of turning down yet.. I’m putting it on my watchlist.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:17 pm
oops
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGR&p=D&yr=0&mn=1&dy=0&id=p96486836324
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Wayne
NTR: I speak French; but, or darn, bet you do too! Je t’adore France.
Oui, I would love to tag along in de suitcase, bien sur!
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:19 pm
tony, but why would anyone buy a taco stand which will have to deal with increasing costs and expected single digit growth for PE of 55? When comparable ventures trade much cheaper..
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:20 pm
NTR
tony, when in Belgium, you may want to visit”
http://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&cp=6&gs_id=h&xhr=t&q=brugge&rlz=1R2SKPB_enCA391&gs_upl=&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.,cf.osb&biw=1280&bih=544&wrapid=tljp132829684854706&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&ei=lTMsT4i9I6qoiQKV743HCg
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Ron/ab
I don’t know if I should continue holding avl. W%R seems to want to move south,
while a cnq just broke above its current resistance.
and PCX yesterday 13% today 5%,
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Tawny,
i posted that here because i did not know whether you read my email or not as you sent no reply.
Not sure what you mean by “half a story” – but that is in fact what I did write on Jan 28th – and the SPX did go down to the mid keltner and bounced up from it on Jan 30th. So, that was my suggestion IF the SPX did that – yet you wrote to me saying different. Yet you copied and pasted my words back to me which proved yes, that is in fact what i did write to you. So, not sure how that can be disputed then – but it sounds like there was not full understanding maybe on what I wrote?? but regardless, you sent my words back to me of what I did write and that is in fact what i wrote – a few days before it happened with the SPX and mid keltner bounce.
So, as I didn’t know if you read what i wrote, I decided i’d write that info here instead. Sorry to cause any upset if there is any.
i spend A LOT of time in trying to help people on here and it takes me a long time to type responses and emails – so, the info I give OR analysis I give OR suggestions I give are all only just that – info and analysis based on the charts and suggestions are just suggestions – people will still do what they want to do – regardless of what I or anyone on here writes – people are accountable and responsible for their own decisions on trades they make – just as we all know BUT sometimes it might be forgotten?? i will NEVER try to point someone in the wrong direction OR mislead people OR give advice that is NOT in someone’s best interest – it’s not who i am! I hope this is apparent to all on the board.
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Tony
If in Belgium you have to go to Brugge. Spent a week there, fabulous. Excellent beer, restaurants,beer, chocolate, lace, beer, beer. Did I mention beer. Over 450 types. Have to go back one day still have 350 or so to try. If you have time and energy, get a good bike and pedal to the north sea. You need a good bike. Cobblestone is hard on the ass. I believe Canada war memorial is within driving distance also.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Tawny,
NTR
Sounds like you like to travel, have you done a lot of travelling?
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Tony,
I studied at Louvain (Leuven) back in 1975. Enjoyed living in Belguim. I shared a few classes with the Jesuits. The Stella Artois brewery was nearby. My residence was in the Arenberg castle. Louvain was celebrating their 500 year anniversary. Travelled a bit back then. Took some classes at the Sorbonne – back and forth – our prof had a double appointment.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Slava,
I looked into opening an account in the US.
No it is not legal because the Canadian GOV.does not want us to trade in the US.
This is what I was told by a US broker.
I found a company in Vegas that you can by an adress from at a resonable price that can or not include a phone #.Then you can get an acccount with a US address.Vegas has no state tax so this is common practice.
I was going to use my wife’s adress in Mexico.
I do not know being a Canadian myself what Ottawa will say if they find out my address is just a front .
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:25 pm
OK so Slava
why trade something that goes against you???
same reason no?
you should get JACK.
this is to funny I wrote previous sentence and then peeked at JACK and the lousy thing just shot up
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Tony- yes i own it. Just got back on computer and see it pulling back today. Had to take my other computer in to the shop this morning because i found out i was trying to get hacked so now have changed all my passwords and been on the phone with the banks. Should have put in a tighter stop but didn’t want to do anything but pull the plug on the computer this morning. Still up 47% as of now.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Paul-R, but don’t you need to provide a Social Security number and US identification to prove you are a resident?
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:27 pm
Ric,
There was a good movie called “In Bruges” a few years ago. Did you see it? Colin Farrell was in it.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:27 pm
tony, I’m unable to trade in the US after-hours market through Itrade or Investorline.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:27 pm
Guys thx for the suggestion
my inlaws lived there for 10 years, wife still has uncle and cousins living there
and she will be the godmother to cousins baby boy due in a few weeks.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Slava
they changed I see when it was called tradefreedom they would give you the shirts off their backs.
now days they’ll take yours.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Here is a post i did a few weeks back on silver.
I will have to put a date on all my charts so that people will believe me when I repost my charts.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLV&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p86000608435&a=253186847
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:31 pm
tony, Cramer was pumping CMG last night on his show and the CEO of Chipotle was on the show .. when asked about increasing beef prices.. he essentially said that more beef demand leads to lower prices. How stupid is that? The numbers speak for themselves and they are not impressive enough to warrant such valuation. I stand firm on this.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Ron/AB
Yes I did see it. Shot on site. Not a bad movie. It was good to see the central square and the sites I visited.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:35 pm
I’m down $18k on my 3 short positions.. and I’m up about $34k on my long positions since January 1st. Mind you, my long positions include many juniors so it can be misleading until I actualy sell them. Bel.v jumped by 30% today but it doesn’t mean anything until I sell.
I’m just so sick and tired to see CMG, CP and lulu go up all the time – I’m ready to throw in the towel. Probably this is the tipping point.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Tony,
AVL is a tough call. Here’s an old chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVL.TO&p=D&b=9&g=0&id=p78940468776&a=252816881
It’s still having trouble at that 3.45 area but on the other hand the ascending triangle chart pattern looks good. It broke out at around 3.30 and is just retesting so far. Maybe just put in a tighter stop.
Nice stock pick in PCX.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Slava,
I was told I needed a address only for this company and register online.
The reason I did not go forward is because the FED scares me.Will they take my money for some reason or other.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:38 pm
Tony- i used your 4/9 system to buy ATC.V. I use it with search criteria to find stocks. So far with the help of the 4/9ma i have have 3 winners and 1 looser. So far this is working great and not a lot of trading fees. I am maybe being a bit aggressive on the buy point but seems to work more than not. Thank you for explaining this more than once to everyone that has asked because it has all helped.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:39 pm
Wayne, I understand that you’ll need your Canadian winter wear in Europe. Bon voyage!
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Slava
do you use the web based platform or the what its called axis pro,
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Re the SPX:
I spoke of the bradley dates today in my earlier post today on the SPX. Well, I have just taken notice of something that is showing on the WEEKLY chart for the SPX. There is a pattern forming on it – a BEARISH pattern of a long term double top of an “M” pattern where the first stroke of the “M” starts in July 2010 (at 1010) and ended in May 2011 at 1370 (on SPX) – the second stroke of the “M” goes from May 2011 to August/ Sept 2011 with PX at 1100 area – and the final stroke of the “M” (IF the M gets REALIZED) would take the SPX back up to that 1370 level – and then down from there – all the way back down to 1010 IF the “M” gets realized!
With the Bradley date coming up soon (at the beginning of March), this “possibly” could be the catalyst to have the “M” realized.
This is only something I can “see” as a POTENTIAL PATTERN FORMING on the SPX (on the WEEKLY chart) – so, this is just something to keep in mind as it MAY OR MAY NOT come to fruition – as not ALL patterns get fulfilled! Here’s the weekly chart so you can see too this kind of pattern that seems to be forming:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=7&g=0&id=p14498333900
Also, there is an even BIGGER LONGER term pattern that “looks” to be forming on the SPX – and it goes back to the March 2009 low of 666. this pattern is a head and shoulders pattern – on the chart though it isn’t a traditional looking head and shoulder pattern as the head is not very high – so, it may not be one at all – but I thought I would point it out because “potentially” in the future (this year is my guess IF it does get completed), this pattern could complete! This would put the SPX back to the march 2009 lows (and lower) – This may be why i have heard many out there saying the worst is yet to come – the worst bear ever I’ve heard – and that will take the markets BELOW the March 2009 (what i have heard only). So anyway, there is that kind of a shallow multi year head and shoulder formation on the WEEKLY chart for the SPX that goes back to March 2009. So, this is something that “maybe” should be kept in mind?? Justy thought I would warn – regardless of whether it comes to fruition or not! I’ll post the chart of this in a separate post.
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:43 pm
hvu.to at 8, trend is your friend, thank you everybody for the information, my only contribution is start with the trend and train tracks first, then price supports using volume by price and trend lines, then oscilators.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:45 pm
PS to my post 122:
here’s the chart of that H and S POSSIBLE formation:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=3&g=0&id=p08128491702
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:46 pm
Slava,
I deal with Interactive Brokers. They have a Canadian Office.
Here’s the URL:
http://www.interactivebrokers.ca/en/general/about/aboutCA.php?ib_entity=ca
They can answer all your questions.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:48 pm
Michael,
LOL You’re right! I’m lugging my parka and stanfields.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:48 pm
Slava
I know its counter intuitive, but its just like the New Zeland lamb its cheaper than the home grown lambs why? because more you produce and eventually the market will become saturated so and they will have to lower the production.
Here in Qc a few years ago the farmers went to war against the big Corps and the Goverment as the price of beef was increase the farmers didn’t get the cost of production what happened after it became all obscure
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Slava:
The thing is that traders never short stocks that just made new highs. Whether it’s a 52-week high or especially an all-time high. There are no sell orders up there, right. The chart pattern I shared yesterday of CMG showing a break out from a triangle predicts $400+ and Tony just checked to find that options purchases today could bring that $400 number into play.
Also, fundamentals have nothing to do with trading. RIMM traded at a P/E of 200 in 1999. It topped at a P/E of 1500! Also, “the market can remain irrational longer than we can remain liquid”. There is hope yet:
Cramer probably has so much profit that he is pushing the stock now. If you are a contrarian, you may see that as a sell signal. Even the short term chart says to me “Pray” for a break of the lower red trend line.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMG&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p31783771967&a=255870290&listNum=15
That’s why I don’t touch these stocks. I’d rather go to the casino, where at least I’ll have some fun while losing my money.
Have fun everyone.
Frank
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Thanks Wayne, I’ll look into it.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Eve: That chart confirms what I read somewhere..1343 is the line in the sand, should it break out of there upside maybe 1400 with some pauses between. Could I ask your opinion whats next. Thanks.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Hurk
I hope you’ve limited your loss, to a 4-6 % loss below the low of the W or where you bought it at.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Slava,
interactive brokers refused me
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Here is another stock with very questionable valuation:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PNRA&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p63449949102
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:55 pm
slava
PNRA 180 before march expiration,
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Tony- if you are talking about CUM.to i was in and then out. As for ATC.v i will probably sell at the end of the day and wait for a pull back to the 4 at least. Not sure why it has moved so quickly with no news? Hope a buy out is not around the corner. It has worked out great i have been able to sell HVU and still have a gain on the two trades.
February 3rd, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Ron A/B:
The charts and patterns are probably similar to some of mine. I agree with you on AVL. As well, every down day in the last couple of months comes with less volume than up days, which is a sign of strength in uptrends. I’m in and will buy more after a clear break above the next line.
Have fun!
Frank.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:02 pm
tony, CMG makes me so frustrated.. I can’t even explain. I’m down $5,400 on this POS… and they missed their EPS #!
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Hurk
don’t follow all the comments as I post
sometimes I should but I prefer my companies, I feel comfortable with as I know how they will react day in and day out.
Know what atc.v this one as it opens higher then the 4 I would have been a seller in the first 30min.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Slava
I agree with you, but I read they will open a number of stores for 2012 so the market is not saturated people want those burritos and nachos.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Slava
cmg W%R moved below 50% but was to gitty to be pessimistic and moved as fast as lightning to the upside.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Eve,
Re#124
I also spotted this long term potential H & S pattern on the SPX when the 1292 peak was formed. However, in order for this to unfold, the price levels should not reach the 2011 high of 1370 as the right shoulder technically needs to be lower then the head.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Ron
I saw in the past HnS formation that were taken from a huntchback but they still called it a HnS.
don’t recall what happened after.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:13 pm
HVU
Usually, when the bollinger band narrows, like it is doing at this moment, it explodes one direction or another. I am thinking, up. I have noticed this with crude oil for many years.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:13 pm
leaving as not feeling to good,
feel nauseous.
going home probably be back later tonight or by next monday
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Slava,
I thought you would have covered your short yesterday when CMG went to the mid keltner but then bounced up from there! Remember how the keltner channel works: stocks,, indexes, etc. in an upttrernd will stay between the TOP keltner and the MID KELTNER – CMG is in an uptrend – so, it pulling back to the mid keltn YESTERDAY buit then bouncing up again, it meant it would have been prudent to cover it there – even at a small loss. The obnly way CMG will come down to the bottom keltner of $340, is if the markets have a BIG sell off! and that for right now, doesn’t seem to be in the cards for the near term – maybe in the summer?? or maybe in Msrch with the bradley date of March 3rd?? I don’t know but for right now, it doesn’t seem to be a possibility. So, you “may” be waiting a while for CMG to come down to your shorting price – so, it might be best to cover it IF it gets back down again to the mid keltner OR even sooner – at the level where you can’t take the pain anymore of the loss. You can always just go long in it on a pullback as you know now, this thing will go up after having pullbacks. So that might be a better strategy.
Eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Hi Kay,
Don’t know what comes next re the markets – all I can say is what I’ve already written today on the SPX in my 3 posts today on it (post 2 and 3 are at 122 and 124).
Hope this helps Kay
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Eve Re #101
NTR – as I said – that was waaaaay (to use one of your methods of expressing emphasis) out of line, copying and posting private e-mail information. You could have reminded me simply to “check my e-mail.” Even today, you could have asked me to check my e-mail or the blog note yesterday…. BUT, you preferred to spell it all out again. Why is that so necessary? (Actually, I think we all know why.)
Would you like me to cut and paste information that you have sent to me via e-mail?
I respect your privacy and would ask you to do the same.
Eve, no one thinks for a moment that you would deliberately steer anyone the wrong way. I trust that there is not one person on this blog that would do that. I do not mean to be unkind, but you need not continuously remind us of the statements you have said that turned out right. We all consistently and constantly give you our thanks.
Please check your e-mail.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:17 pm
TONY #144 – Be Well Tony! Take care of yourself!
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Tawny,
I want to tell you that you have company, in the HVU department. I bought in my RRSP (which I am so conservative with) shares at 12.50.
Well, if I have to wait until I am 85 years old for this to break even I will. This is what happens after you make several good trades, as someone stated. You think that you can direct the market.
I am glad that I did not do the same in my TFSA, as I need to accomplish so many $ per day, for expenses.
Just thought I would add that. I have been have really good trading days, however I just got out of the market with my TFSA. I have not one idea of where crude oil will be going.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Hi Ron/AB,
Yes you’re right about the right shoulder – but as we don’t yet know IF the SPX will go any higher than 1350, then we cannot really know if that shallow H and s formation will come to be realized. That’s why I wrote saying it’s a “potential” formation I can see on the chart. So, IF the SPX does get up to 1370 or beyond, then yes, the H and S formation would be negated at that point – BUT, the “M” formation at that point might get fulfilled IF that is where the SPX tops out at this year(at around 1370) – and if the “M” is fulfilled, then it would bring the SPX down to around 1010 area.
thanks Ron
glad to get confirmation of you (and/ or others??) seeing it too 
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:26 pm
tony, please feel better soon and get some rest! You must be run down between family, work and the markets. A hot cup of black tea will help as well.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Eve, yesterday it appeared to me that CMG will break down under the burden of institutional selling.
I’ve read pretty much everything there is to read on CMG. I believe it’s irresponsible for the analysts to be giving upgrades at this point since I’m predicting a more difficult environment for Chipotle in 2012. They are opening new stores but in “proven” markets which frequently means almost right next to existing locations… so existing clients stop going to old stores and start going to new stores. There is more and more competition mimicing what CMG does. The price of food whether beef or guacamole or corn is epxected to continue to go up. It’s a decent company but it should be priced at a much lesser value.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:31 pm
Ray-Kitchener:
Still bullish on crude oil?
Just wondering if I should leave a position in over the weekend.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Hi Ana,
thanks for that info re HVU and the bollinger band squeeze taking place. HVU is also right at its yearly low of the $8 area ($8.69 was yearly low) – that low was put in last July as the SPX hit 1356 and then came crashing down within 1 week after that!
So, with the BB squeeze taking place on HVU AND with HVU being at support price which is also the yearly low AND with VIX going down today but bouncing up from bottom keltner (thus showing a reversal in trend candlestick on the chart today for VIX) AND with the SPX being at a resistance point of 1344 where it got to in 2011 before selling off (in Feb last year) AND with RSI being overbought (above 70) and with stoch being overbought again AND with the SPX being at the keltner top AND with Feb being traditionally, the 2nd worst month of the year, then THIS might just be the day we see the last of the highs made on the markets. Next week should be interesting IF that proves to be the case
Guess time will tell 
thanks ana for posting that info
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Hi Kay,
Please read Ana’s post today on HVU – and please read my reply top ana at post 154 as it gives MORE info on the SPX for today – and what “potentially” may be coming going forward.
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Hi Slava,
I believe you hun re CMG – just trying to help out with what I see on the charts. BUT, what YOU do is of course, up to you in the end to decide – I cannot make that deciosion for you OR force you to cover anything at all – just do what feels comfortable for YOU! That’s all I’ll say!
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:40 pm
tony,
just saw Slava’s post to you – and then read YOUR post about not feeling well – please go and relax. Cup of tea is a great suggestion! Ginger tea I think is good for nausea – OR it might be chammomille that’s good?? can’t recall right now – sorry. But yes please do get some rest tony – and I hope you feel better really soon
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Eve, I feel angry with myself for making another mistake. Between lulu, cmg and cp it’s been a disaster. CP had overall disappointing results, their operational ratio sucks but they “promise” it will substantially improve years from now.. and the market is paying more and more every day for this promise.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Slava,
I have had all of my three children go to University in the USA. When there, I have noticed that these companies are always packed every time that I visit:
Lulu
CMG
PNRA
Why short these very popular brands?
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Eve, at least fm.to being up makes sense
even though I’m losing money on that short as well… but at least it makes sense why fm is up.. CP and CMG – doesn’t make sense at this point.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Thank you Eve for all of your posts. I appreciate the feed back on HVU. I always wonder how you find the time, during trading hours, to provide this very important information.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Ana, it’s all a matter of valuation. I agree that they are all good companies. CMG and PNRA are not delivering the numbers which justify their valuations.. These two eateries are priced as if they are about to make a life-changing discovery. They are priced like high-tech stocks. LULU is a bit different even though more and more competition is stepping on its feet which will impact the results as well going forward.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Ana
Actually I liked your remark on HVU about the bollinger band squeeze BETTER when I did not know you had a “vested interest” in HVU going up. LOL Either way, I still like your view on this very much, indeed. Like you I will hold on maybe not until I’m 83 – which may be sooner for me than you – but I can’t help thinking where HVU will be by Spring.
Have just been reading that Israel may attack Iran come April… but no one really knows that or Greece’s fate for sure…. there is just so much ailing the World these days. So whenever, I feel badly about having some paper loss, I try to remember those that are truly suffering. Someone was telling me about a greek lady who left her child at kindergarten with a note saying she could not afford to feed her.
Now that is sad. So, if we have money to invest, win or lose, we are not among the poor.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Eve, do you think it’s prudent to hedge my fm.to short position – short in one account (from yesterday) and go long in another account just in case we have another jump on Monday?
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:54 pm
Eve: Thank you so much for the updates. Please post from time to time re SPX, never looked at BB before but I will read up and explore. Hope you doing well health wise and in your trades.
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:56 pm
tawny,
paste whatever you want from me of what I’ve written to you!! I really don’t care as I don’t have anything to hide! But for you to say I am out of line for posting that but yet you tell me you DID read my email but yet didn’t reply to it from you (for whatever reason), then I am sorry, but I posted a SMALL SECTION of the email on to the board (of what i sent to you)! What is the big deal?? Really! what??
Then for you to say things to me like you just did in your post, that is just really unkind to say such things to someone who’s done nothing but to try and HELP YOU! So why would you say that to me?? And why would you say that to me on here if you’re so concerned with privacy?? That makes no sense!
But whatever tawny, I really don’t NEED to help ANYONE on here – or ANYWHERE really – I do it to be kind – I don’t do it to be criticized later for things I say that some may find annoying at times! So why would you even say such things to someone who’s only tried to help YOU PERSONALLY? And why TRY to throw “threats” out of saying things like:
Would you like me to cut and paste information that you have sent to me via e-mail?
I pasted on here MY OWN WORDS i wrote to you – I didn’t paste on here the words YOU wrote to ME in emails! Like what is the issue here?? Why would you treat someone this way who’s only tried to offer help to you?? I really don’t get that!
Paste on here whatever you want tawny – BUT do not come on here saying the things to me you did today on “PRIVACY” and then say what you did about pasting on here things I’ve written to you in emails – because honestly, that’s just ridiculous!
I don’t NEED to help ANYONE on here Tawny – PLEASE just keep that in mind the next time you feel like saying such things you wrote to me today on here, to someone else who’s ONLY offered you help – with whatever you may have asked for help with.
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 3:57 pm
Tawny,
Yes, I posted a note here, I think in the summer, saying how bad I feel for the people in Greece. It is not the poor or middle class that are trying to take care of families, that got the country into this position. I think I got a post back from someone, saying it was their own fault for this situation.
Mother’s want the best for their children, no matter where they are. When their children do not have enough to eat, it must be heart breaking.
HVU, yes I might have to wait a long time. However, I will try to remember to listen to my own rules that I have established for trading. When I make a mistake with trading, I look upon the loss as a tuition fee toward a degree in trading. I have two degrees, that I no longer use directly in how I make a living today. So, one could see that as wasted money, however it is all an education and it all costs $$$.
February 3rd, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Hi Slava,
re your posts 158 and 160:
i completely agreee with you re CP! re LULU – well, with this one, I think it is now “waiting” for earnings release – and if earnings are as they guidance they would be (when stock popped to $60), then that is when LULU will make a move – BUT, I fear the move will be to the UPSIDE IF the earnings and guidance are BETTER than expected. I saw that kind of thing occur last year with GMCR – it bounced in 1 day on releasing news, from $43 to $55 (last March) – then went to $62 and hung out at tgat $58 to $62 level for about 2 months – until it reported earnings – earnings were good and the stock then JUMPED UP to the $70′s!! Then it just kept going up after that – to when it finally hit the $100′s. So i fear this kind of price action is what LULU will do too IF the earnings and guidance they give are better than anticipated. So, that’s my fear for you with LULU.
With CMG, well, I gave my opinion on that one already – but just remember Slava: whatever loss you take on ANYTHING, you CAN make up that loss very easily in the cpoming months!
Want to hear something REALLY upsetting?? I said to myself in december, IF SINA gets back down to $47/ $48, i am going to load up the truck and buy 10,000 shares! It got to $47/ $48 on Jan 9th – and did i buy?? NO!!! the next morning, it opened at $50 BUT I was sick in bed and couldn’t get up – so i didn’t look at the markets til noon that day and SINA was already at like $53 at that pioint – so, i didn’t buy! I have been watching it daily – and ALMOST put in a bid LAST FRIDAY for 8000 shares at $62.18 (it went to $62.13 – so, i would have gotten filled) – the stock after this shot up to $63.43 and then came down to $62.89 – and I was WAITING for it to come back down to $62.30 area to buy those 8000 shares – but did it?? NOOOO!!! the thing shot right up and went to $71.00 that day!! And by yesterday, it was at over $77!! Today, it came down a bit to the $73′s but I didn’t buy it as it may be coming dpown from here. So, IF I had SIMPLY bought those 10,000 shares on Jan 9th slava, tHAT would have been $300,000 in my pocket for the month!!! and ALL my losses that I’ve previously told you about would have been erased with JUST that 1 trade (plus money made too)!! Or even just with the trades I “thought” to make last week too BUT didn’t as I hesitated to buy when i thought i SHOULD BUY HERE (for COG and SINA and SLW last week). So, imagine how “I” feel with THAT Slava LOL – so, that’s why I say that ANY losses you DO finally take (IF you choose to), you will be able to EASILY make them up in the coming months!!
re FM – yes true – understandable with copper being up by more than 10 cents today!
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 4:16 pm
OMG HERE WE GO AGAIN!
February 3rd, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Eve
I did not threaten you. I gave you an example and said “I would not do that to you.”
So you are supplying partial information.
MY words to you via e-mail were not meant for the Blog. And you are blowing this way out of proportion. All I have said is it is not correct to cut and paste e-mails and I’m sure anyone would agree. I had not responded to your e-mail right away – I read it late at night when I was very tired….I am not a night person. This is not a valid reason to put it on the Blog…. and before I could respond to you, you posted it again today.
I will not get into a word war, Eve. And I will not paste anything you wrote to me.
We all thank you for the generosity of your time and TA analysis.
February 3rd, 2012 at 4:27 pm
Hi Ana,
I posted A LOT more last year on here than THIS year (thus far) – and that is because last year, I didn’t make ANY trades really past July – just a couple here and there for the rest of the year! and why? Because the markets last year scared me!! even though the trades I told myself to make (like I told myself on oct 4th to BUY FFIV when i saw it OPENING at $70 that day – which was a support level – told myself to buy 600 shares of it – yet, i didn’t! the stock went to $124 in January – and $125 TODAY!). I did A LOT of stupid errors last year (aND in 2010 too) of NOT buying things when my GUT told me to BUY NOW!! in 2010: my gut told me to buy BIDU at $66, to buy NFLX at $90, to buy GMCR at $22, to buy MON at $43, to buy SLB at $56, to buy FM.to at $48, to buy PCLN at $175, to buy POT.TO at $88 – and these turned out to be the LOW prices (OR support prices) for EACH one of these stocks at the time i “thought” to buy them in 2010! Sooooo frustrating really!!! But anyway – that’s how I sometimes have a lot of time to post on here – is because I’m not doing any trades – BUT this past month, I’ve been either too sick to post on here OR I’ve been glued to my trading account, looking for trade setups to buy – AND confirming the usuage too of using the 4/9/18 on the 5 min chart – along with the bollinger band too i now have put on my chart (on my 5 min chart) – so, even though i haven’t actually bought when i told myself to buy (in the last 2 weeks ESPECIALLY), I have been able to “see” and “verify” the use of these indicators and moving avgs on my charts – and I’m ok with getting THAT great education
So, IF you see me post on here quite regularly during the trading day, then it means I’m not doing anything with stocks. If you don’t see me much on here at all during the day, except a random post here and there, then it means I’m either sick, out somewhere, busy with something, busy with my nephews, OR am looking at my stocks to get some trades in (HOPEFULLY
).
Thanks Ana – that was very kind of you to say
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 4:29 pm
PS Ana,
OOOPs, in my post to you when I wrote to buy 600 shares of FFIV on Oct 4th – i meant 6000 shares, NOT 600 LOL (i only buy things in the 1000′s – never in the 100′s)
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Ana
Re #167 – A Greek friend told me that there is a lot of corruption in Greece and tht people do not pay their taxes…. but again, it is likely the wealthy who are the biggest non-contributors. It doesn’t really matter… I agree that the suffering must be awful. As a lady from El Salvador who occasionally draws my blood for analysis at the Lab (better make that clear) said, we just do not realize how fortunate we are in Canada. I agreed with her saying I don’t even mind payin high taxes as we have so many benefits, and the only thing we can complain about is the weather! Period.
I love the way you look at trading losses as a fee for your degree. A loss is not a loss until you sell…. right?
February 3rd, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Hurk re #169 – I jknow what you are referring to and no worries… I have nothing more to say on this. Period.
February 3rd, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Eve, so sorry to hear about the missed opportunity on SINA.. I have a ton of examples like that (well, not with such $ amounts but missed opportunites on a smaller scale).
And regarding your kind comment “that’s why I say that ANY losses you DO finally take (IF you choose to), you will be able to EASILY make them up in the coming months”..
This is where I run into problems. In January I thought I could make up for some of my losses which I took in December but I ended up creating MORE LOSSES for myself by shorting stocks which continue to go up. So I’m not that confident in my ability to make up for the losses.. Like I mentioned before, I think I function best if I day trade only as I don’t have the confidence to hold large positions. The problem is that I have a full time job so I can’t day trade. I took yesterday and today off so I made about $1,000 yesterday and over $1,000 today just by trading a few things here and there (and closing my positions)… I traded hgu/hgd again today.
In general, I end up taking profits early and let the losses run away on me. It’s one of the worst mistakes in trading. So I have to create a lot of small profit transactions to cover one big loss. Doesn’t make much sense.
February 3rd, 2012 at 4:38 pm
Well another boring week in which I neither bought (No money left to buy with in market accounts) nor sold (no holdings showing profit) – I think I figured out my problem – Cash Poor !!! LOL
Have a good evening everyone, and please Eve & Tawney kiss and make up! Life is too short!
February 3rd, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Hi Tony,
re: #50. Thank you for your advices to put stop loss for the two stocks.
Thank you and you take care!
Jeanne
February 3rd, 2012 at 4:50 pm
CJ, investing is not that easy, is it? I’m being reminded every day.. at least you are not stuck with a very large short position like I am. Now that is truly scary. Have a wonderful weekend.
February 3rd, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Well, it’s a bright and sunny day here in Vancouver.. those are so rare this time of year! I’m off for a long walk around Stanley park.
Another week is coming to and end.. time is flying by so quicky. I hope everyone had a wonerful weekend.
February 3rd, 2012 at 5:00 pm
” I hope everyone had a wonerful weekend”.. I meant to day “I hope everyone will have a wonderful weekend” ..lol
February 3rd, 2012 at 5:02 pm
Tawny,
I really think you have no clue how much your email to me LAST night (and of TODAY too) UPSET me! IF you DID have any understanding of it, then I doubt you would have written to me today what you did – on this BOARD AND in the email of today!
My words that YOU sent to ME in your email last night: i only pasted them back to you because of what you had “accused” me of in your email last night – it was not me saying to you, “see, I was right!”. You threw out an accusation to me and it REALLY upset me!! because it wasn’t how you were saying it was! And then you copied and pasted back to me my entire email of something i wrote to you! Doing that kind of thing when something isn’t how you are THINKING it is – and making me feel like “I” am to BLAME for something (when I know, i am NOT), is VERY upsetting to me!! and why?? because i don’t want to steer ANYONE in the wrong direction (on purpose or by accident) – so, when something is written to me that is “suggestive” of me having done this (by accident i’m meaning), when in fact, I did not, then that kind of thing REALLY hurts me!! and i find this ENTIRE thing REALLY upsetting! and then today you saying about posting things I’ve written to you in emails, here on the board – you wrote this to me TWICE today – suggesting in the email i wouldn’t want the board to know certain things about me?? i’m sorry but THAT kind of a thing sounds like a “threat” – sorry if you can’t understand how it would! And as I wrote to you in response: I have already disclosed that info on here mYSELF – ABOUT myself! So, it isn’t “necesaary” for you to try and “use” this as some sort of example as it is no threat to me because I’ve already posted that info on here already!
ALL of this kind of nonsense is upsetting to me – and your emails of last night AND today, were VERY upsetting tawny!! and if you can’t understand that, then i am sorry – but that’s just how it is for me! I explained this today in an email to you!
Bottom line:
I don’t want to be ACCUSED of things that aren’t true – and then WORSE, to not even have an “I’M sorry” to come to me afterwards. and I don’t want to be criticized when all i do is to try and offer help to others (when I am ABLE to and when I have the info that will help).
You want privacy tawny?? then why are you posting things on here today (to me) as you did in your posts of 80, 147, and 170?? again, saying one thing yet doing something contrary, just makes no sense to me! So, you want to post these posts here?, then my responses will be posted here then too – just makes common sense!
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 5:12 pm
Hi Slava,
re your post at 175:
I totally get what you’re saying re trying to make up losses – only to then create even MORE losses!! THAT’S why I OFTEN have had TRADING PARALYSIS is because “I” have had the same thing happen with ME too over the last few years – then I missed out BIG BIG TIME on making HUGE gains!! I mean HUGE!!! So, I completely know where you’re coming from Slava in saying that – bUT, the trade set ups WILL come for you – either as a buy OR as a short – in the coming months – you’ll see – it WILL work out!! I have faith it will Slava! Just as I have faith in MYSELF that it will for myself too!
Making $2k today and yesterday though Slava: way to go girl with THAT!! That’s awesome!!! Just make more good ones like that and you’ll be laughing
Have a great walk around the park hun
eve
February 3rd, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Eve
I have only responded to your mesages that you put on the board. But I will not do so anymore. This is not what people come here for. You have my e-mail address.
February 3rd, 2012 at 5:44 pm
Ania
Just saw UTX ticker at 81$ it seems to remember saying it had to break above 200MA resistance well it did,
now I remember BA CAT think last one i mentionned was DE
the one thing i find strage is they are picking up steam,
notice cmi jumped 100 to 120 in 5 trading days.
February 3rd, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Tawny,
Instead of ANSWERING my FIRST post on here to you today of my reposting of my post last night to you – ALL you had to do INSTEAD of writing this:
Of course, I saw that and your e-mail too… I do not have a response to half a story and IMO private e-mail’s are not meant for the blog.
————————————————————-
was to simply have told me you saw my email and say you would write back today when you had time. THAT was it!! But instead, you wrote about a “half a story” (suggesting I’m saying something misleading i guess, with only giving a half a story??) – and then criticizing me in your post of saying your opinion re emails.
please – you know all you had to do was say you’d be sending me an email – instead you chose to suggest something about what I posted AND then criticized me in your post to boot! And then decided to post 3 other posts on here throwing out insults by saying things like:
BUT, you preferred to spell it all out again. Why is that so necessary? (Actually, I think we all know why.)
————————————————————-
“Actually, i think we all know why!”??
——————————————————————
Then the inferred “threat” of putting info on here I’ve written.
Come on – please do not “play” me for a fool Tawny! Because i am NOT one!
e.
February 3rd, 2012 at 5:48 pm
BTW to all thx for the suggestion.
Eve
back on the sina debate I mentionned earlier in the week options going for 80+$ don’t recall exactly what number but looking at the chart previous resistance back in october november was 50MA which was broken right on Jan expiration.
that was the move to go with it.
you can look at my slv chart I gave 32 options after Jan expiration, and that is exactly what it did.
February 3rd, 2012 at 5:49 pm
Hi Hurk,
Re 119 your search criteria. I recently joined Stockcharts and I am trying to use a search criteria there but no luck. Would you mind sharing what your using to find the 4/9 cross? Are you in Edmonton?
Thanks,
DS
February 3rd, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Eve,
your feud with tawny can easily be solved if you you receive an email just answer the email.
and then post a message here saying you got mail.
February 3rd, 2012 at 6:35 pm
DarcyS- I use Vector Vest. There are about 200 searches pre made, i have done extensive back testing to find the ones i like. I then graph the top ten in the search to find candidates. By using the 4/9 it works quite well. Some of the criteria is only available thru VV. I am out of Olds and am part of the executive of the Red Deer VV user group. I am not a everyday user of this site but come here often. Any questions i will help out if i can.
February 3rd, 2012 at 6:47 pm
Wayne, are you there? Been busy here but did you say on a post you are going to Europe. Visit my home country Denmark…excellent beer and people. I don’t need any advice yet btw, just finishing basement project. Call next time in K TOWN and I will have more to ask if you don’t mind. H/Kingston
February 3rd, 2012 at 6:57 pm
Thanks Hurk,
Appreciate the info. Been thru Olds a few times. Nice town. It’s my shortcut to Banff, Radium, etc. Love that drive down Hwy 22 to the Transcanda.
I will check out Vector Vest and see what they have to offer.
Regards,
DS
February 3rd, 2012 at 7:09 pm
Hniel,
LOL. I stop in from time to time. No – I’m afraid no visit to Denmark this time around – but friends of mine are going to Iceland. Tried to talk them into going to Denmark as well. I leave next friday.
I was wondering how the basement was coming.
Always happy to oblige – I’ll call you next time I’m in K-town. This time the fish and chips are on me!
February 3rd, 2012 at 7:26 pm
Frank,
Re AVL in #136
Your obervation of lower volume on down days as compared to up days is a good point. Thanks for pointing it out.
Have a good weekend.
February 3rd, 2012 at 7:35 pm
DarcyS- if you like what you see let me know. I will be able to set you up with the Edmonton user group leader and possibly a free monthly meeting visit.
February 3rd, 2012 at 7:46 pm
Strong Payroll Data
February 3, 2012
This morning’s bullish payroll report aligns with the “another push higher” and probable strength into next week scenarios. The area near 1,343 remains important on S&P 500, especially on a closing basis. We are open to making bullish or bearish adjustments, but we are still leaning toward the correction camp.
Bulls Get Push Higher
February 3, 2012
As we noted in Tuesday’s video, the S&P 500 did get another push higher this week. We closed right in line with the 1,343 number. DeMark aggressive sequential daily for S&P 500 moved to a 9-13 “exhaustion” count as of today’s close. SPY volume traded roughly 27% below a typical day, meaning the conviction behind today’s move was weak. Table still set for next week – we will see what Monday brings.
http://ciovaccocapital.com
PS Who mentioned Demark Indicators and a book the other day?
February 3rd, 2012 at 8:05 pm
Wayne, nono, next time let’s go to a more expensive spot,,,LOL, if you’re paying (I like Woodenheads). I’m really proud of the basement project, tile etc, I’d post a photo here but not really appropriate. Now I almost have more time to try and trade OIL. OH that’s between the ‘dawgs’ as you call them.H/Kingston
February 3rd, 2012 at 8:41 pm
tony
Sorry to see earlier that you are not feeling so hot — hope this doesn’t mean you have the flu again, or maybe you weren’t over it in the first place. As our blogging pharmasist recommends : Cold FX (best buy is at Costco). And it really does work… My husband and I have both managed to keep well and fend off viruses this winter. Also re #188 – said succinctly and that is the point. Stay well, a bien tot. (do not have a french keyboard )
February 3rd, 2012 at 8:56 pm
Hi Ana, Eve and others. I took a half position on HVU this aft (3:59 p.m. in fact). I’ve been selling into this rally; it can’t go up forever…or maybe it can:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46259593
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Ana ,Tawny , regarding HVU.to , You have to take in consideration the possibility that Hvu.to will never go back to 12.50 .
Just look to VXX , another volatility ETN . 3 years ago was 450 , October 2011 was 59 . Never ever will go back to 450 .
Same way hnu.to = will never ever go back to 7.000 ( 7 thousands ) like in 2008 , it is at 4-5 now.
Hoping for a nuclear war in Iran and Israel or a bankruptcy in Greece is ….. , just to recover some money ?
If Greece will go bankrupt tomorrow the S&P 500 will rally actually . The unknown in their case will disappear and markets does not like the unknown and they will rally .
Vix futures are in steep contango .
Maybe HVU.to will be 50 in April . After reverse split 10:1 of course .
Maybe or maybe not .
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Libby re #195
Thank you so much for posting that… it is encouraging for a few bears I know. Papa Bear, Mama Bear, and a couple of Baby Bears. (Sorry, these are a few of Tony’s favorite expressions – you gotta love it.) Thanks for the link to the site – I will explore the Blog on there when my brain reawakens tomorrow.
It was Wayne who spoke of Demark and a book you could read. You could try Google -
“Books about Demark Indicators.”
February 3rd, 2012 at 10:56 pm
Rick
(Is it Ric or Rick? – I have seen you use both) Just caught your note. Thanks for the words of encouragement. There certainly is the possibility that HVU will not get back to 12.50. Also possible that the S&P may get to 800. Who knows.
Please know this one thing, though. I certainly do not wish a war or hardship on anyone or any country in order to make money…. if you have read my posts, I have expressed this in the past. What I mentioned earlier is simply realistic Macro Economic threats in this world that seems to have gone so terribly wrong. How could you even think such a thing!
I am sure I speak for every little bear on this site that we do not wish any evil “to recover some money.” We are simply market traders. There are times to be bullish and times to be bearish. You may not agree with our current slant – but no need to rain on our parade. Okay!
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Tawny,
Re #201. Well said.
b
February 3rd, 2012 at 11:28 pm
Tawny , mea culpa , I apologize if my words upset you.
Please , disregard what I wrote .
By April Hvu.to will be back at 15 , at least .
February 4th, 2012 at 12:04 am
Tawny , I just re-read your 163 post . I am sure now that You mentioning quote : Israel may attack Iran … Greece’s fate …. in same post with with quote : I will hold on HVU , it was just a pure coincidence .
So I am apologize again for that association .
February 4th, 2012 at 12:30 am
Trading is risky no matter what you trade. Double and triple etfs decay over time….we all know that but that is a risk some of us are prepared to take, individual stock are problematic too…as I am sure anyone on the wrong side of an earnings report is only too familiar; they can also go incredibly wrong for other reasons, Lehman being an example. Forex also has it’s risks, as do futures contracts and options time decay too. Being short a stock can lead to infinite losses.
Every trader has their own way of trading and I for one respect that.
I was excited to be introduced to a Canadian forum. I used to post to an American forum but the person who ran it got so much negative feedback that they finally closed it down…and I didn’t blame them.
I ask the members of this forum, especially those who bring negativity and ntr emotion
to this site, to take time over the weekend to consider why a forum should exist….is it not to provide and receive encouragement and learning?
I hope that the slightly toxic and negative feel of today will be over with next week. I have always believed that a positive attitude brings positive results and I, for one, will have to review my connection to this forum if things don’t change and that would be very disappointing. Trading can be a lonely profession….I would prefer to have friends out there.
February 4th, 2012 at 1:11 am
Sorry Libby , I did not realize that this is a bear forum and bulls are not welcome . Sorry but I cannot encourage the bears in this moment .
February 4th, 2012 at 2:26 am
#205- Very well stated Libby.
This generous, educational forum should not become a platform for the emotional petty feuds that seem to have arisen with more regularity in recent months.
There are a number of very gracious, experienced “mentors” who regularly contribute to this blog, and I for one would hate to see them leave out of sheer frustration…I’m sure most would agree that the loss of Ron/BC (and his pearls of wisdom) has already left a gaping hole.
So to all those who continue to share their trading & investing wisdom without the constant need for self-gratification &/or martyrdom… I say thank you very much!
The wide range of trading techniques and technical analysis presented here help all of us refine and improve our own methods and setups.
Don V. has provided a terrific platform for anyone, and everyone, to exchange CONSTRUCTIVE views and ideas about Mr Market. With the best of intentions, let’s ensure it remains that way.
So let’s play nice people… and please remember to take the infighting outside
February 4th, 2012 at 2:38 am
Rick,
I’m confused, which post of Libby’s are you referring to? I don’t read anything where she is implying that bulls are not welcome.
Lot’s of acrimony on the board today
February 4th, 2012 at 7:56 am
Greg, Ron….glad to see you are on board with this idea….have a great weekend and I’ll see you back here on Monday.
February 4th, 2012 at 8:52 am
Libby,
Well said! Trading is a very risky occupation and I have known several traders over the years who have blown up their accounts by not protecting themselves from the risks of excessive leverage. Money management is far more important than making the right call. I would never go near the triple ETF’s – far too much risk.
Yes… we all have our own approaches to the market – and we can all benefit from the experience of those who choose to take a different path.
Ron/Barrie – I totally agree and applaud your post. Well said!
February 4th, 2012 at 9:24 am
Hey, Wayne:
Since you’re here, I would appreciate your opinion on DIG and DUG. If memory serves you have traded these in the past. If my theory on too much optimism on $WTIC and the potential correction on Oil is correct, someone who purchases DUG should do well for a while. I have been watching it for months for a potential buy. Here’s the problem: It’s been performing like a pig!
Whether $NatGas goes down or $wtic goes down, this DUG never pops up for more than a day or 2. Worse yet, it actually continues to make new lows on a regular basis. No real reversal up. Definitely no huge volume that might give us a hope of a bottom. My worst fear is that I make a correct call and DUG does not perform. What gives with this DUG? Any insight would be appreciated.
Have fun!
Frank.
February 4th, 2012 at 9:54 am
I love this forum…and have learned so much from people here. All the different approaches to trading, all the different interpretations and styles (heck, even all the different personalities) lead to a richer forum. I don’t want to see this wonderful mosaic shatter because people start posting without thinking how it affects the overall cohesiveness of the forum.
February 4th, 2012 at 10:29 am
Hey Frank!
Yes,I am familiar with it. Ron/BC follows it very closely and has traded it. I don’t like the nasty gas component. Not sure about the % component of each since I don’t follow it. A trader I follow is still short gas – sees a base building at this point, but doesn’t expect any fireworks. With wells being shut in and production declining, it may turn around – but the inventories are still gigantic! Watch the 20 EMA on nasty. It has tagged it several times over the last several months. Every time it pops over the 20, he loads up on his short position. So far so good! If you want a good play on Nasty – take a look at FCG.
Dig/Dug is a real dogs breakfast (apologies to Hniel!). Nasty is NA based product – simply trades on demand/supply data. Oil trades in relation to the USD, political horseshit over in the mideast and other known/unknown factors. If it just traded on inventory data – we’d be down around 65 – 75.00. So, the metrics of Dig/Dug are skewed.
But as Ron always said – there’s always a BS story to explain movement. Just follow the charts. That’s the real story!
Best!
February 4th, 2012 at 10:49 am
Libby, Wayne.
Guess I was up too late last night while reviewing recent posts and found the ongoing infighting very wearisome & distracting. Being passionate about your trading is one thing, but before entering the Trading Room it might be best to check any inflated egos or rivalries at the door (with apologies to Alexander Elder).
#198-Michael: My gut tells me you made the right call… Good luck!
February 4th, 2012 at 10:54 am
Hi Wayne. Re #210, I can’t remember if you trade the double-leveraged ETFs. I trade the odd one, and had a whole bunch in a “managed” portfolio before I fired the fancy shmancy portfolio manager. With your trading skills, one would think that you would fair well with the leverage on oil.
February 4th, 2012 at 11:01 am
Hi Tony:
Could I please get your assessment of pey.to. I keep thinking this one has bottomed out and buy more only to see it fall further. I started buying this one at $19. Surely nat gas stocks are close to bottoming?
February 4th, 2012 at 11:01 am
Hi Ron/Barrie. I’ve been glancing at HVU for a while, but playing volatility is like playing with dynamite. After Friday’s run up, and seven weeks of rising stocks, and no consideration about risk and volatility, it makes sense that we’re due for a pullback. I didn’t pull the trigger until the last 50 seconds since I figured that it would continue to drop. It’s not, however, going to be a long-term hold. I wonder if I can sell it on Sunday after the Super Bowl?!
February 4th, 2012 at 11:07 am
Hey Michael,
Yes. Actually, Ray and I have been doing very well trading Sco/Uco – daytrading only. These leveraged etf’s can empty your account in a heart beat if you are not familiar with them.
My best advice is to pick one market (Curley’s “One Thing” in City Slickers!) and as I suggested to Ray – “sleep with it” until you get to know how it moves. There are all kinds of derivatives to trade, if it’s a comm like Oil. But, I would never trade a triple – way too volatile for this old fart!
You get to a point where you can narrow your focus – get a “feel” for how it trades – then get in – get out. Once it hits your target – shut down the slot machine – go shovel the driveway or take in a movie (like “Margin Call”). I call them “sniper trades”.
Best!
February 4th, 2012 at 11:18 am
Wayne:
Thanks. I will turn my focus to ECA. Looked at dailies and weeklies dating back years and buy some. It could turn into a real bottom later, and meanwhile, I should catch any bear market rally for a few bucks in my pocket.
Thanks again.
Have fun.
Frank.
February 4th, 2012 at 11:28 am
217-Michael,
Based on today’s point spread in Vegas, if the Giants come out on top you’ll make a killing!
February 4th, 2012 at 11:37 am
Here are a couple of interesting charts. The Nasdaq has moved above the 20,3 Keltner and is overbought on the RSI 14. However, it also moved above the R1 resistance on the pivot points. if it can continue holding above this level it can stay overbought for a few more days before a pull back.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$COMPQ&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p83640537065&a=228634307
The S&P is similar, except that it is not above the 20,3 Keltner yet. the key is whether it will hold above the current R1 resistance, if it can, then it will probably head higher . The way the markets have been behaving, a pull back may not amount to much.
(space added to avoid moderation)
http: //stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p84520323170&a=183214001
February 4th, 2012 at 1:02 pm
…”for many years I’ve referred to the monthly jobs report as ‘The Big One’. That’s because it’s so difficult to predict that it most often comes in with a surprise in one direction or the other. That in turn most often results in a kneejerk reaction by the market that creates a one to three-day triple-digit move by the Dow in the direction of the surprise. The other side of the pattern is that the initial outsize reaction to the report is then usually reversed over the following days and the market returns to normal.
But then, normal may not be a bad thing, given that the market is now entering its fourth month of rally off that October low.”
From;
http://www.streetsmartreport.com/comm3
February 4th, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Ron/Barrie:
Re: “So to all those who continue to share their trading & investing wisdom without the constant need for self-gratification &/or martyrdom… I say thank you very much!”
Well said!
February 4th, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Ron/Barrie and Libby,
I would say that the large majority of users of this board are in strong agreement with your posts #205 and 207, so please Eve and Tawny settle your differences and move on.
February 4th, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Libby & Rob/Barrie, I am another that agrees with both your comments. I too would appreciate the egos checked at the door along with the constant need for gratitude. We are all here to help one another and trading is a business just like the corner store is. Ego’s have no place in business and they always cost you money when they get involved. I hate to say it but the NTR comments on dating should be left to Facebook. This would be very easy with just a new tab. Disagreements are normal but constant disagreements are always a cause of self internal conflict. There is a saying that works extremely well ” Nothing has meaning except for the meaning I GIVE IT”.
This is an awesome forum, lets not screw it up and chase more people away. We are all bigger people.
February 4th, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Hi Slava. I’m sure that you’re enjoying the beautiful BC weather, but here’s something on Lulu:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/336241-why-i-m-short-lululemon?source=email_investing_ideas&ifp=0
February 4th, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Hi Tony, Eve or anyone else,
The other day you were talking about “new issues”. VSN put news out that it will issue 6,000,000 Cumulative Redeemable Preferred Shares, Series A at a price of $25/sh for aggregrate gross proceeds of $150 million on a bought deal basis.
Do Preferred Shares have the same result as regular common shares.
How do you think VSN shares will react to this news?
Thanks
February 4th, 2012 at 7:22 pm
Frank, thank you very much for your post #128… was laying awake last night thinking about all the mistakes I still keep making. I need to find a way to make less mistakes! I started reading a book called “Lessons from the greatest stock traders of all time” by John Boik. Interesting stuff. The common theme between Jesse Livermore, Gerald Loeb, William O’Neill and others is that they frequently go (went) long as a stock approaches a 52-week high while I try to short it thinking the run is over and the stock is very expensive (if a company’s busines model and valuation looks questionable to me). Also, Ron/BC used to say that many intelligent people go broke trying to trade the market because they analyze and analyze and come up to a certain conclusion, take a position and get stubborn if it goes against them. They average down, etc. trying to prove their pont.. sort of what I’ve done with cmg and cp and lulu since all three of them look way too expensive based on the results, etc.
So thanks again, so much to learn still.
February 4th, 2012 at 7:51 pm
Michael, thanks for #226.. but in the meantime lulu still continues to rise
February 4th, 2012 at 8:10 pm
Hey, Slava:
I’m just about to watch an old Marx Brothers movie with my wife and daughter. but you should be out having fun. Anyway, yes, let the winners run, as they often go way beyond where we might expect, surpassing 1 or more resistance levels. Sell the losers quick because it’s not about being right or wrong , it’s about managing money.
I keep thinking about Lin. She’s so cute. She does not want to tell you if she thinks you’re wrong, she very politely says something like……”Maybe more likely to go up, not down.” I can’t remember the phrase she uses, but I love it. She’s probably so quiet and cute but so bloody right!
Also, I do believe that Ron B/C would tend to be more of a medium term trader when markets are strong. Decades of chart reading and I appreciate the expertise. Just think about the bottom after 2009. Everything went up. Just hang on for a great ride. But after 1000′s of points up, how much more upside is there? You might as well just take small positions here and there. The only way I believe we can still get an explosion is if every flipping Central Bank on the planet prints money like crazy. Anyway, I find that those 80 year olds understand to be conservative because most traders, most recent generations of people have never experiences true hard times , especially here in North America. Wait until the Bear market starts up again. It’s going to get bloody.
But I digress. Anyway, have fun.Talk another time.
Frank.
February 4th, 2012 at 8:30 pm
Frank, thanks again
It’s a pleasure to read your posts.. ” Sell the losers quick because it’s not about being right or wrong , it’s about managing money”. I frequently forget about that.. I was to be right, period! I’ve been on this site for two years now.. how time flies! And every quarter there is a new disaster..lol. I somehow manage and make the money back eventually. Then I sort of stop making one mistake but then start making a new one. What the heck? So frustrating 
I miss Ron/BC so much! He never visits anymore. I think he and I had this special bond.. and whenever I got migraines he would perform his famous Reiki and it helped! Anyways, at least most of the other “regulars” are still here which is great.
Yes, Lin is very cute. She is a trading genius! Sometimes she shares what she buys and I’d be looking at the chart and thinking to myself – “really? I’m wondering why she picked this stock”.. I remember Lin was shorting RIM as I was buying it since the stock looked cheap to me.. well, it got much cheaper as we all know over the last 11 months. Sometimes I think that perhaps I should do the very opposite of what I think will happen with a stock short-term. I’m actually thinking of buying PNRA sicne I wanted to short it yesterday. I’ll go long and see if it works! …lol..
Enjoy your movie and the rest of the weekend. I’m off to see my hot Russian – we are going snoeshowing tomorrow morning somewhere in the beautiful BC moutains. We just need a troika to get us there! That would be so appropriate..
February 4th, 2012 at 8:34 pm
“we are going snoeshowing tomorrow “.. lol.. I meant “snowshoeing”, I’m at work, had a long day
February 5th, 2012 at 2:29 am
Greeting Frank and Slava
Thanks for the comments. I haven’t posted for while. But I read sometimes. Many times I input the posts but I delated it. I know myself, I won’t hold any stock which agaist trend and value deprecaition with big hope. I trade what market guides and never ever assume. As we know what is means of assume lololololo.
Have a great weekend!:)
February 5th, 2012 at 9:44 am
Hi all. I like these guys:
http://www.themarketguys.com/end-of-week-wrap-up/
February 5th, 2012 at 11:35 am
Bernie,
peyto added more shares, so this will dilute the earnings and as such shareholders will not be rewarded. you can read the following post.
tony Says:
February 2nd, 2012 at 11:17 pm
I was poking around the IPOs and found these companies I’ve been asked added new shares.
Name Price expiration
ERF.to price 23.45 6days
TransAlta TA.to 22.00 closed
Peyto 23.50 closed
so to all interested in knowing why Pey.to and TA took a beating you now got your answer.
take it from someone who knows.
first time it happened to me I forgot the name of the company but it was trading at around 25 and after the new issues came out I got killed since the issues were worth 20-22 I remember when I saw price take the beating it droped as low as 15$-16$
And I had no clue what happened until it was posted on a website.
Recall this past summer I mentionned Mosaic came out with a new issue of common shares and the shareholders received a nice gift as the shares were evaluated at 55$ if I recall so you can all go and see these companies and see how they did and you will be surprised at how it works out.
its nice for someone who wants to own it just need to be patient and then make your move.
laurentian bank did an issue at 47 so price being at 48 prior to the issue the shares just got a pat on the shoulder.
February 5th, 2012 at 11:44 am
Re #234
I’ve been thinking a lot about the VIX and the SnP. “themarketguys” state that the VIX is a leading indicator of the SnP. I don’t see that. I see the VIX as being driven by the SnP. That is, the current value of the VIX correlates well with the current price of the SnP. There is very poor correlation with past values of the VIX and the current price of the SnP which tells me there is no “predictive” value for the SnP through the VIX. That, in fact, the VIX is an inverse reflection of the SnP price.
Maybe… An indicator based on the ratio of “SnP price to the VIX” can be used to achieve a more pronounced indication of directional change in tops of the SnP or bottoms of the VIX.
Thoughts?
February 5th, 2012 at 11:58 am
Tony:
Interesting…thanks for digging up that info! I think I’ll hold on to my pey.to for a while, as a value play. The dividend isn’t so bad right now either.
February 5th, 2012 at 5:09 pm
Migdu,
I’ve seen the same thing, and it really does not make sence, but the market for some reason, has caught a different bus in the past year. I’m still a believer of fundies and seasonality first and charts second, but that has worked against me a bit for the year, but I’m not abought to change with the present and future globel enviroment. I may have been early when I bought HVU, @ 10.75, but the economy and trends seem to be on a different path then the market, and I can’t figure out why! Maybe it’s because I’m here in south western Ontario (Not TO) and only see the nasty things, like our auto sector moved away, and the long standing locomotive industry being shut down, and moving to the States, where I guess they only have to pay 16 bucks an hour. We can’t raise a family here at that rate, unless the guy works 80 hours a week! So maybe there is a different life beyond what I see, here, and read.
b
February 5th, 2012 at 5:54 pm
Rick
Regarding your posts 203 /204 – that is good of you!
Just wanted you to know that I would never wish “bad things” in order to make money. I wish for world peace! Unfortunately that is not going to happen in my lifetime (I am retired, already) 
I was born during the last one and have often expresed my gratitude that I have not had to live with such reality as an adult and hoped I would never, ever have to. Not so sure now – I fear I will. orry, I did not mean to be so depressing – again, thinking about the realities that exist.
I e-mailed Ana recently, how sorry I am feeling for the Greek people who are suffering so much. And, they are not alone. It is downright depressing how much suffering there is in our world right now…. this seems worse than ever to me, and I fear at some point there will be another world war.
February 5th, 2012 at 5:56 pm
Lin
Nice to see you post. Assume is so cute when broken down!
I got caught in a bad investment to a degree it has never happened before. Like Ana, I feel there will be an opportunity to make at least some of this back.
Hope you had a happy holiday!
February 5th, 2012 at 6:00 pm
My apologies to everyone on the board – I didn’t think when I posted my comment that it would result in such a diatribe. In hindsight (mine is 20/20
), I should have known better. I am really, really sorry. There is nothing more I can say to anyone about this.
February 5th, 2012 at 6:07 pm
Re Greece’ situation: – as I keep saying they are really between a rock and a hard place. An excerpt from this link .
http://english.cri.cn/6966/2012/02/06/2743s679231.htm
“Faced with painful demands by EU/IMF inspectors for further austerity measures and labor market reforms, mass layoffs in the public sector and a dramatic reduction of the income of the average employee in the private sector to slash deficits and boost development, the coalition partners cannot easily accept the draft deal.
“I will not contribute to the explosion of a revolution in Greece due to poverty that could spread across Europe,” said George Karatzaferis, the leader of the small rightist Popular Orthodox Rally party, exiting the Premier’s office after the meeting.
“They ask for further recession. The country can not stand it anymore. We are struggling to avert it,” stressed Antonis Samaras, President of the conservative New Democracy party shortly afterwards.
February 5th, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Hi all
NTR
It is hard to get up at 5am in the morning and watch SUPERBOWL specially online with blurred and sometimes broken feed.so far so good as long as the power is on.I couldn’t watch first 10 mins of game because of power cut.One good thing watching online here in India is to see all US commercial which are mostly overwritten by CTV in Canada.
kam
February 5th, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Kam #243 NTR
You are very fortunate – I could not find even streaming audio never mind video;
finally found a play by play blog – not very exciting viewed that way. Was so very glad to get all the CFL games this past season – even though a day later!
February 5th, 2012 at 10:30 pm
Tawny
Thanks. You are not alone. We could got caught some times. But just how we hand it when this happened. Cut loss quickly or hang it with hope. You will make you maoney back. Tawny.
February 6th, 2012 at 12:00 am
Insider Trades: Friday,03 February,2012
11:48 AM EST – Paramount Resources Ltd (POU): Lloyd Doyle purchased 2,000 shares at $34.96 on 02-03-12 — bringing his total stake to 5,000 shares
11:37 AM EST – Canadian Pacific Railway Limited (CP): Ian Mackay purchased 5,400 shares at $71.54 on 02-03-12 — bringing his total stake to 2,952 shares
11:31 AM EST – Avalon Rare Metals Inc. (AVL): Donald Bubar purchased 25,000 shares at $3.39 on 02-03-12 — bringing his total stake to 1,250,000 shares
11:27 AM EST – ALAMOS GOLD INC (AGI): John McCluskey purchased 100,000 shares at $20.34 on 02-03-12 — bringing his total stake to 335,800 shares