ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Friday February 24th
U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 2 points in pre-opening trade. Most of the gains are coming from the energy sector following another increase in crude oil overnight.
Fourth quarter reports continue to pour in. Companies reporting overnight included Newmont Mining, Eldorado Gold, AIG, Salesforce.com, JC Penney and Enerplus.
Stantec is expected to open lower after TD Securities downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold.
Target added $0.39 to $54.89 after Jefferies upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy. Target price was raised from $49 to $63.
Marriott International added $0.64 to $34.94 after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from Buy to Conviction Buy. Target was raised from $41 to $42.
Technical Watch
Target Corp. (NYSE:TGT) – $54.89 added 0.7% after Jefferies upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy and raised its target price from $49 to $63. The stock has positive technical profile. Intermediate trend changed yesterday from negative to neutral. Support is at $46.98 and resistance is at $55.36. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the beginning of January. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of May. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
Target Corporation (NYSE:TGT) Seasonal Chart
Marriott International Inc. (NYSE:MAR) – $34.94 added 1.9% after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from Buy to Conviction Buy. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since mid-September. Seasonal influences are positive until mid-May. However, short term momentum indicators are trending down. Preferred strategy is to accumulate on weakness closer to its 50 day moving average at $36.05.
Marriott International, Inc. (NYSE:MAR) Seasonal Chart
Stantec, Inc. (TSE:STN) – $30.13 Cdn. is expected to open lower after TD Securities downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the TSX Composite Index has been positive since mid-September. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of April. However, short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to its 50 day moving average at $27.90.
Stantec Inc. (TSE:STN) Seasonal Chart
Mark Leibovit’s Daily Gold Comment
More on Mark’s services is available at
http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp
GOLD – ACTION ALERT – BUY
Gold extended yesterday’s gains reaching 1789.10. Silver broke out above 34.62 reaching to 35.73. And, even Platinum and Palladium touched new recovery highs trading at 1740 and 729, respectively, yesterday. It is clear that we’re not getting the expected ‘smackdown’ I was hoping for to provide renewed long entry opportunities and that redirecting our focus to unfulfilled upside targets made more sense. That said, each dog has its day and we could very well still see a shakeout, perhaps coming from higher levels sometime this Spring, especially if precious metals continue to track alongside equities. The breakout in silver reconfirms my January 23 forecast for 37 and possibly the low 40s.
Interesting Charts
Gasoline prices gained another $0.03 per gallon yesterday following news that gasoline inventories fell more than anticipated. On average, U.S. gasoline inventories peak in the middle of February. The peak this year has arrived on schedule. Look for the wholesale price of gasoline to break shortly above levels reached last May.
The Canadian equities in U.S. Dollars simulated through Canadian iShares (EWC) broke above resistance yesterday at $28.74. Strength relative to $SPX has turned positive
Attention “snow bird” investors and Canadian investors holding U.S. funds! EWC will outperform the TSX Composite Index during a period when the Canadian Dollar is moving higher (as it traditionally does between March and May).
Canadian Dollar Forex (FX:CAD) Seasonal Chart
European equity markets are showing early technical signs of rolling over. Sell on news?
The Athens Index already has fallen 11.5% from its high last week.
Other European equity indices also are showing technical signs of rolling over from overbought levels.
Nice breakout by silver above resistance yesterday. ‘Tis the season!
WTI Crude Oil prices are being drawn higher by rising Brent Crude Oil prices.
Updates on other sectors and equities with positive seasonality
Platinum broke nicely above short term resistance last week. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Canadian lumber stocks recorded a nice recovery during the past week. Strength relative to the TSX Composite Index remains positive.
The Shanghai Composite Index continues to move higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 remains positive.
Ditto for the Nikkei Average!
Energy equities and related ETF on both sides of the border have recorded strong gains during the past week. The TSX Energy Index completed a reverse head and shoulders pattern.
The Oil Services sector and related ETFs are about to complete a bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern.
Ditto for the S&P/TSX Metals and Mining Index and its related ETFs! More information is available in a report below.
Comments on Gold and Gold Stocks from David Skarica
Following is a link to an interview with David
http://www.moneynews.com/DavidSkarica/Bargain-Gold-Stocks/2012/02/23/id/430330
Eric Wheatley’s Weekly Listed Option Comment
Hello all,
You may have noticed that the only options strategies I cover in these weekly ramblings relate to either a) speculative purchases of calls or puts or b) investing properly by selling covered calls or cash-secured puts for better risk-adjusted returns. There is a reasonably salient reason for this: while there are an infinite number of ways one can combine calls, puts and the underlying shares to make wonderful and colourfully-named strategies, they pretty much all are going to produce a net loss over the long term if one has to pay both the bid-ask spread and retail transaction fees.
Of course, given that the world’s options markets have unprecedented and ever-improving levels of liquidity (yes, even Canada’s) and that the readers of a technical analysis website may transact sufficiently to get reasonably low brokerage costs, I will suspend my disbelief and start looking into the most common complex options strategies. This week: vertical spreads.
The term “spread” implies the buying of one instrument and the simultaneous sale of another. Indeed, spreads can be done on virtually any security (they are frequently used by bond traders, for example) and are generally quite conservative strategies. As they apply to options, the idea is to set up a position with a short leg that is either partially or fully covered, with limited risks and commensurately limited returns.
Vertical spreads imply the purchase and sale of two options – two calls or two puts, never a combination of the two – with the same expiration and with two different strike prices. Vertical spreads can either cost money (debit spreads) or bring in immediate cash (credit spreads). Regular readers will spot right away that, as always, credit spreads are by far the more popular of the two types because free cash is fun; which is yet another example of human irrationality the extraterrestrial surveillance experts who live among us must add to their voluminous files*.
(*I’m not a Trekkie, nor even a science-fiction fan. At all. I do remember however as a teenager stumbling upon Lilith Crane playing an alien who tries to clumsily seduce Jonathan Frakes. Lilith has always made me feel tingly).
A proper vertical spread is done to capture a perceived mispricing in the market. Each listed option series – a call and a put with its own expiration and strike price – is a discrete security with distinct market forces acting upon its price. If the prices of two options diverge, one becoming relatively more expensive than another, a trader can decide to purchase the cheaper one and sell the more expensive one. This does not mean that the “expensive” one has a higher price than the other however, just that there may be a relative disparity between both options’ prices.
To illustrate, here’s the call options table from last week for an actual bank stock:
|
|
JKL Bank Inc. Call Options (Current Stock Price: $58) |
||||
|
|
March |
April |
May |
July |
January |
|
54 |
$4.20 |
$4.50 |
$4.75 |
$4.95 |
$5.65 |
|
56 |
$2.40 |
$2.80 |
$3.15 |
$3.40 |
$4.30 |
|
58 |
$0.95 |
$1.40 |
$1.85 |
$2.15 |
$3.10 |
|
60 |
$0.20 |
$0.50 |
$0.85 |
$1.15 |
$2.05 |
|
62 |
$0.08 |
$0.12 |
$0.35 |
$0.50 |
$1.30 |
|
64 |
$0.02 |
$0.04 |
$0.14 |
$0.20 |
$0.75 |
Let’s say, quite hypothetically, that Saul, an options trader, sees this table and finds that the January 62 calls are relatively expensive when compared to the January 60 calls. You will notice that the “expensive” calls are, in actuality, less expensive in absolute terms. This isn’t relevant to Saul; he just sees a relative imbalance between the two options’ prices.
To take advantage of his opinion, Saul decides to buy the “cheap” January 60 calls for $2.05 and to sell the “expensive” January 62 calls for $1.30. Given that he receives immediate cash for his sale which partially mitigates his purchase, Saul pays out a net amount of $0.75 for this position. If he turns out to be right, the two options’ prices will diverge – that is, the January 62 calls’ price will drop relative to the January 60 calls’ – and he will be able to close his position by selling the January 60s and buying back the January 62s. If after a month the January 60 calls are trading at $2.25 and the January 62 calls are at $1.25, Saul will be able to close out his position and take in $1.00, making a $0.25 profit.
This example is an illustration of a “debit” spread, by which Saul had to pay out money to set up his initial position. The opposite trade can be equally valid. Had Saul believed that it was the January 62s which were cheap relative to the January 60s, he would have purchased the former for $1.30 and sold the latter for $2.05. In this case, Saul would have taken in $0.75 and he would have hoped that the prices of the two options converged instead of diverged, thereby having to pay out less than $0.75 to close out the position and taking in a profit equal to the difference. In this case, because Saul took in money to set up the trade, it would be called a “credit” spread.
The point here was to present how a spread can correctly be applied in the markets. Now, let’s look at what is most often presented in options literature to justify the purchase or sale of vertical spreads:
Saul’ (pronounced Saul-prime) is an investor who believes that JKL will rise a little bit over the course of the coming five months. He wants to profit from his view while minimising the amount of money he needs to lay out.
Saul’ wants to buy a call, but they’re just too darned expensive. Having done the Canadian Options Course back in the days of the Big Yellow Binder, Saul’ knows that speculators who are slightly bullish should put on a bull spread. Having determined this, Saul’ needs to decide between doing a call debit spread (as illustrated in our first example) or a put credit spread. Given that Saul’ likes getting free money, he sells a bull put spread.
Saul’ buys the JKL July 58 puts for $2.25 and sells the JKL July 62 puts for $4.50. He takes in a net premium of $2.25. In selling the 62-strike puts when the stock is trading at $58, Saul’ is out $4.00 off the bat from his short puts’ intrinsic value. If JKL stays at $58 or drops, this $4.00 is the most he can lose. If he is right and JKL moves slightly up, he will make up this intrinsic loss and at $59.75 ($62 minus the $2.25 taken in) he will break even. If JKL rises above $62, Saul’ will have achieved his position’s maximum profit potential, meaning he keeps the $2.25 he got initially.
***********
I would respectfully and diplomatically call the preceding example “idiotic” (that’s as diplomatic as I get. I could’ve chosen a much more descriptive term, but the carnal knowledge of small ruminants is still viewed as unseemly in Canada). The added costs involved – the bid ask spread on these puts was over twenty cents or $20 per contract and Saul’ has to pay commissions on the extra transaction – most certainly proscribe doing two trades. If you’re a good technical analyst and regularly call your shots right, the simple purchase of a call can take care of a bullish view quite nicely without having to pay the vig on an extra trade. Most importantly, the justification for doing spreads as written by theoretician market virgins – being “slightly” bullish or bearish – is as nonsensical as being “slightly” pregnant or “slightly” lobotomised. If you’re not fully bullish or bearish and you feel that your opinion isn’t strong enough to justify the outright purchase of a call or a put, then forget the trade and move on to another one which will give you a forthright, solid opinion.
…yes, the Big Yellow Binder really micturated me the heck off back in 1998. The sad and incomprehensible thing is that these types of examples are still the default illustration in most options publications.
On that cheery note, have a happy weekend everyone!
Éric Wheatley, MBA
Options Analyst, J.C. Hood Investment Counsel Inc.
eric@jchood.com
*****************
Little known fact about John Charles Hood #17
A John Charles Hood anecdote inspired the Beatles’ Norwegian Wood.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Platinum Futures (PL) Seasonal Chart
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Emerging Market stocks on a roll”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/02/23/emerging-market-stocks-on-a-roll/
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC February 23rd 2012
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February 24th, 2012 at 9:38 am
DD
here is a chart of support and resistance I did a while at the beginning of the year on suncor, the 100MA was resistance and broke through in early January.
Now where would you put supports on this chart? you have 2 answers one is easy the other doesn’t require to much help?
Will tell you this I bought near the october’s low. Sold it on the 3rd arrow in november, bought it back when it broke resistance in January. and sold it when the MACD MA was trending lower as I had no clue if it would hold current support
February 24th, 2012 at 9:40 am
here is the chart for suncor
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SU&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p78516704141&a=253298363
February 24th, 2012 at 9:47 am
Eve,
Re- posts 132,199 and 202 from Thursday.Very interesring and thought provoking.
Thank you.
February 24th, 2012 at 9:50 am
Eve,
Should read interesting
February 24th, 2012 at 9:50 am
Tony,
For energy stocks like SU and CNQ, would you preferable wait for a pullback as the crude has rallied so much in a matter of two weeks due to the Middle East concerns? There should be a pullback, but it is easy to miss the run entirely if it goes straight up. How would you approach it at this stage?
February 24th, 2012 at 9:57 am
USD is at critical support now at 78.40. This could be considered h&s neckline. Critical to watch.
February 24th, 2012 at 10:05 am
Well, I had a chance to get out of hvu at breakeven a few minutes ago but didn’t.. at -3.73% just like that.. such a pure gamble! As close to a casino as can be
February 24th, 2012 at 10:06 am
Thackray’s veiw on SU.TO
FEB 18-MAY 9 1993-2011 produced average of 13.7% , positive 89% of the time
February 24th, 2012 at 10:08 am
i posted this yesterday but not sure how many saw it – so, i’m reposting it today – as there was a lot of talk yesterday on the board re HVU:
Hi guys,
re HVU and the SPX:
I noticed the other day that it could go back down to the $8 level – due mostly to it doing a double top in the over $12 area which was also the start of a potential “M” formation – thus, bearish. Also, it couldn’t get beyond the mid keltner DECISIVELY – even though it tried a few times. So, from the chart of it the other day, it looked to me like it would fall back down to the $8 level (the keltner bottom at that point was at $8.07 and HVU at the time was trading at just over $10). as of TODAY, the chart has changed – the bottom keltner is now at $7.74 on the 2.5 setting – and its at $7.14 on the 3.0 setting. Stochastics is now moving down from a mid point level to head back down to oversold area (below 20 line). At the point when it gets to oversold on stochastics, HVU will most likely be towards the $7.20 level. as the ETF goes down each day, the keltner bottom price will be a lower price too!
The SPX is not at all close to overbought anymore on the keltner and is no longer overbought on RSI either – but is very close to overbought on RSI as its at 69 right now and over 70 on RSI is overbought. The SPX now has room to run to the top of the keltner (2.5 setting) at 1371 which also coincides with last year’s high of 1370 from April. Potentially, it can run to the top keltner 3.0 setting of 1377 (or a bit above this too) and be overbought then on the keltner. If the SPX runs to that 1370 level, then HVU will for sure get down to that $7 level – and for right now, there is nothing to suggest the SPX won’t take a run higher to its last high of the last 4 years of 1370 that it reached in 2011.
As I’ve written before: stocks and indexes LOOOOVE going back to prior highs (and prior lows too) in order to “test” those areas to see if it can break through them (or to see if that level holds as support on a prior low point). So, with that in mind, then at this point with the SPX no longer being overbought on anything except stochastics, then the SPX can easily make a run to that 1370 level and even higher – this is in the near term i’m meaning. The markets could potentially just do these little pullbacks here and there to the 9 day MA and then little moves up again (like 5 to 10 points), right through to end of April – so, it might not be until the end of April that the SPX finally has a “somewhat” significant pullback for May (like down to the 200 day MA) – enough of a pullback such that in the summer leading up to the Nov US elections, the summer could see a good summer rally – IF the excess gets taken out of the markets in that May period which “normally” has a sell off in that time period.
So this is potentially what could occur between now and end of April. If it does end up going this way between now and then, then the SPX will most likely be in a trading range of between 1340 support and 1365 to 1380 resistance area – rather than making any kind of substantial run ups (ie beyond 1380) OR significant pullbacks (ie below 1330 area).
So, this is a very possible scenario of what to expect from both HVU and from SPX between now and end of April.
Hope this helps all
Eve
February 24th, 2012 at 10:11 am
Watching live streaming quotes is really fascinating.. BAC suddenly fell a few cents and hvu moved from $8.22 to $8.32 almost instantly.
February 24th, 2012 at 10:11 am
snif snif tck is already 2$ above my entry price that was missed
February 24th, 2012 at 10:14 am
Ron/AB,
Euro short covering ahead of the next meeting fuelling further most commodities.
February 24th, 2012 at 10:18 am
Slava #10 – Where can you see real time quotes for Canadian Stocks – mine are all 15-20 min delayed.
February 24th, 2012 at 10:20 am
CJ, as an active Gold star investor I have live streaming quotes through my BMO Investorline account.
February 24th, 2012 at 10:20 am
I bought hgd this morning and sold too early.. too bad.
February 24th, 2012 at 10:21 am
Tony, Thanks for the good info. yesterday on GFS and USO. Got lots more to learn. Really appreciate the time you donate to my questions. Going now to look at trainig CDs I ordered from Online Trading Academy.
February 24th, 2012 at 10:21 am
Bonjour Martine
in the last few sessions I gave my view on a few oil picks.
suncor I won’t go into details as I am expecting an answer on support.
cnq can’t seem to break above the 38MA
wtic I was in the camp it would have drawn a nice little M formation but since it broke out of the pattern just let it ride as for the time being you have it ride on the 4MA. The 9 and 100 are supports for the time being on a downturn we will see who the real support will be.
February 24th, 2012 at 10:22 am
Michael, are you buying hvu today?
February 24th, 2012 at 10:32 am
BJ
I am happy that you are taking this seriously, now once you are done with this I would suggest you read Eric wheatlys column on this website every friday especially the last few weeks it has been more to the point very informative (I think he didn’t like my comment about beer and so on). you can also look at the free tutorial from cboe.com and m-x.ca
btw If your in Toronto I suggest you go to the seminar given by the M-X on March 3rd,
If you read between the lines you will know your resistances and supports.
In mtl the seminar is given in september and its not a good month for me as there are to many things going on. I had to rely on pete and Jon Najarian, option actions and my gut instinct.
February 24th, 2012 at 10:35 am
Morning Rol Lew
VLO is very slow dog. it is goos for intraday short.
February 24th, 2012 at 10:35 am
Slava
you got level 2 trading and are not making use of it?
February 24th, 2012 at 10:36 am
Hi Slava. Regarding HVU…maybe! Logic dictates (not that the market has been logical) that the market should end up today, given Asia and Europe, and okay economic stats released this morn. If so, HVU will likely decline, but that would be logical. Too bad about your HGD, but watch it closely, since it has bounced off a support area around $7.75. I almost bought DUST yesterday when it was below $28 (support) but turned away and it ran up. Oh well.
February 24th, 2012 at 10:38 am
21 went out before I had time to put everything in writing.
I recommend you take a look at fausto pugliese from cyberuniversty free webinar, and he will teach you how to make 200$ on the open every single day.
February 24th, 2012 at 10:39 am
Tony, Thanks for the info. Got lots to digest now.
February 24th, 2012 at 10:44 am
Eve
have you read my post a few days ago about lnkd.
after earnings we talked about it i said it was going to 95 through options and did just that.
btw are you thinking of going to the option education day in TO?
February 24th, 2012 at 10:49 am
Good oil stock to follow that has just broke out is CVE.
February 24th, 2012 at 10:57 am
Martine,
Re #12 – It could be. I don’t know the reason, it’s just a technical area to watch out for. Once these areas are reached there is usually some congestion until the break occurs one way or the other. It’s not a good idea to take positions until you know the direction. However, daytraders can benefit from these pivotal areas. Now I see that there is a reversal candle formed on the USD.
February 24th, 2012 at 11:03 am
Posts I made yesterday evening that may not have been read:
Tawny Says:
February 23rd, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Ana
Re #141 : Yes, I do have some – do not think you are on this page later at night but if you are, you can let me know your thinking on this. Thanks.
Tawny Says:
February 23rd, 2012 at 9:30 pm
Martine
Re #45: I am in your court on the “hard to commit long term at this time.” Here you loud and clear. If I felt it was the right time, I would just buy some good divies and check them maybe once a week so that I could go play all day! Not yet, sigh.
You still holding on to your HVU til you’re some ripe old age?
Tawny Says:
February 23rd, 2012 at 9:33 pm
DD
Re No. 150: BTW, I love the “dd” …. it is meaningful to me. Thanks for your comments. And, I totally agree with discipline. I think one of my problems has been reading lots and lots. One is not suppose to listen to all the noise if wanting to be good trader. I have and I do know that Macro events can move the markets, but they also give rise to emotion and thinking too much. One is not suppose to think and feel in this game of T.A.
February 24th, 2012 at 11:14 am
Bonjour Tony,
I`ll review the previous posts. I might have missed a few. Where is 4MA and 100MA for WTIC? 4MA is around $103. 100MA at $96. Possible, but it would be hard to believe. I guess anything is possible. Energy stocks have not rallied as mush as the crude. High oil prices if sustained is not good for the gold sector.
February 24th, 2012 at 11:21 am
Tony, re “you got level 2 trading and are not making use of it?” ..lol.. I thought I was making use of it, in my own way.
February 24th, 2012 at 11:23 am
Eve
Just catching up on posts yesterday and see you back on the board with a lot of very useful information. I do wish I had your memory! Good on you.
February 24th, 2012 at 11:23 am
Thank you Steve
I appreciate you saying this 
Very glad too that it is not only useful BUT is also “thought provoking” – so, thank you Steve
Eve
February 24th, 2012 at 11:24 am
Hi Michael, Tony et al, ERF.to has been discussed here as a good longer term hold and is down somewhat today after reporting this morning. Would you have any interest in it here ? Thank you, Paul
February 24th, 2012 at 11:26 am
Hey everyone,
In Steve’s earlier post to me today, the posts of yesterday that i wrote on the board, the one I reposted today was post 199 from yesterday that Steve has mentioned
The other 2 posts yesterday were also on HVU and the SPX and the VIX too 
Thanks again Steve
Eve
February 24th, 2012 at 11:28 am
PS everyone,
I’ve only read up to post 8 for today – so, if anyone has left me any posts today, I will be reading the board later on in the day – so, won’y be answering anything til later.
Thanks guys
eve
February 24th, 2012 at 11:32 am
Lin,
Refiners => 7 out of 8 RED candles today. Looks ugly.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?UGA,VLO,TSO,WNR,SUN,CVI,HES,HFC|B
But I am not taking the bait. I am not shorting them. VLO on a 15 minute chart, has stopped going down over an hour ago. I am just standing by, waiting to reload on the March 25 Calls. On the 2 hour chart the AROON 18 is still on a buy signal.
February 24th, 2012 at 11:33 am
Another driller, ESI.to , has taken off today. They seem to be rotating.
February 24th, 2012 at 11:33 am
Tawny,
I still have some VXX. I am not too happy about it, but I will be looking to unload on a short term pullback. In a few months, I believe those VIX based ETFs will have better days. VXX is not as wild as HVU being a double, but it is also extremely volatile as I am sure you can appreciate. It is painful when it goes against you. They are also difficult to trade. They turn on a dime.
If you want, I can let you know when I sell my VXX. I am not saying I will be right on the call, but these markets want to foolishly go higher and any shorts get killed. Even if I believe current markets are exuberant and irrational to an extend, it is better for now to stand aside and wait until they go south.
February 24th, 2012 at 11:36 am
Tawny,
If this is any consolation, Bill Gross from Pimco had a bad year last year. Even very reputable professionels with a very good track record get it wrong at times.
February 24th, 2012 at 11:37 am
Tony,
Sorry, having some computer issues, here are my supports for SU.
S1 9ma @ 34.95
S2 18ma @ 34.78
S3 200ma @ 33.20
Thanks Tony
February 24th, 2012 at 11:45 am
Hi Paul and Canuck2004. I don’t follow ERF but assume they had some disappointing earnings/guidance. My rule of thumb is never buy on the day of bad news; wait until at least the second day (after 10:00 a.m.) to see what it’s doing. Looks like good support just above $23. Nice dividend. Maybe Canuck, the dividend guru, can also comment.
February 24th, 2012 at 11:46 am
hf.to is on the move… very low volume but smth is brewing.
February 24th, 2012 at 11:51 am
Martine
if you look at su vs wtic they had the same rally since the october low 44% in upside.
I wouldn’t say everything rallied as hard in the same time frame
petrobakken doubled since october low, while bnp.to moved 40% in two month but issued new shares so its only up 17%.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Martine, I agree with you in #38. If the markets continue higher now there could be an even bigger correction maybe in late spring. But it is better to wait for confirmation before playing the downside. Either stand asside, daytrade, momentum trade with stops, or long value positions.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Lin,
The bullish percents can be reviewed at the bottom of these charts.
Use the — Select a CandleGlance group- dropdown box.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?UGA,VLO,TSO,WNR,SUN,CVI,HES,HFC|B
Most of them are still positive. So there is no real solid reason to
“short the market” or to short the market leaders – such as the refiners.
SPY, DIA, QQQ, are up today, and have been up over the last 2 weeks.
So I am keeping my longs. The music will stop sometime. So I am hedging
a little bit with some solar shorts, and with some cheap VXX long calls.
VXX is 23.90. The march 28 call is 14 cents.
The March 31 call is five cents.
The April 33 Calls are 90 cents.
Takes a little figuring to figure out how
much to spend on this insurance.
I expect these to expire worthless,
but in the meantime my longs will cover a good part of this cost.
If the market goes down, I expect/ (hope?) that the solar shorts
will really get it!
February 24th, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Purchased bbd.a for 4.62 middle of last year. Right now it is 4.97. Any thoughts on whether to sell now or wait till March 1 when they announce their year end results. Should I hold on for several more months. This is not a stock I plan to keep very long.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:18 pm
Hi Tony,
I read all your comments. I have registered March 3rd Seminar on your advice to somebody.
you mentioned about fausto pugliese course. Is it possible for you to give some more detail about course name & stuff.
Thanks in advance.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Slava,
#42
When you talk about HF I get a flash back of TRE. I listened in to several conference calls and always got the feeling they are not very forthcoming.Besides the stock is in a 5 year down trend.I traded it several times for a small gain and finally gave up.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:24 pm
Got knocked off iTrade for about 20 minutes
“technical problems” ????
February 24th, 2012 at 12:24 pm
Thank you tawny
I appreciate that 
Yes, I am indeed very grateful for my memory – they say that everyone has their gifts in life – and intellectually speaking, a great memory is one of mine
thank god!!! as it is VERY useful in my life 
Thanks Tawny
Eve
February 24th, 2012 at 12:27 pm
Slava,
Did you read my post today on HVU and the markets?? i posted it yesterday too on the board. The SPX is no longer overbought – so, it has the room to go higher (to 1570 to 1376)! HVU also has room to go lower – to around the $7.71 area which is the keltner bottom. Best to stay away from HVU at this point in time.
eve
February 24th, 2012 at 12:29 pm
hi tony,
No, I’ve not been paying attention anymore to LNKD – not since it went above $91. I’m focusing on other stocks these days. I’d like to wait for a market pullback to buy into LNKD in the $80′s or $70′s – most likely in May or June.
thanks tony
eve
February 24th, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Hi Slava and others. CMG is overvalued and Timmy’s is cheap:
http://seekingalpha.com/article/382531-tim-hortons-the-cheapest-large-cap-fast-food-stock?source=email_portfolio&ifp=0
February 24th, 2012 at 12:33 pm
PS Slava,
UNLESS you’re looking to buy HVU for like just a 20 to 50 cent gain or so – on like a day trade. Then, that is something you could do with it. But no, I’m not recommending this – just saying, you could do it if you’re looking to scalp 20 cents or so in a bounce. I’d be looking elsewhere though for a scalp – like HGD for example – just because HVU can be so volatile.
eve
February 24th, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Tony Here,s my take on #1 SU.
one support at 200MA.
2nd at 18MA 34.71 and this also at mid-kelter 34.65
Looks like this should have been bot. Feb.15th about as the Wm%R(7) crossed, MACD turned positive and it had support at mid-kelter.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Hi, Eve
What do you take on COG? I know you are very good at this doggie!
February 24th, 2012 at 12:46 pm
Martine
Appreciate your comments – yes please do let me know.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:48 pm
OIL
Just heard an interview on BNN with a Commodity trader – he thinks oil has more downside risk than upside potential at this point – short term… he has sold. Thinks Oil may get to $110. top. Later he sess oil getting to $124 + .
Hope I am providing some de3cent information to all. Least I can do right now as I am so grateful for help when I get it.
February 24th, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Hi, Rol Lew
Thanks for the comment. I have longed more than short. BUT VLO is just a dog for short, it is on that rising flag..
February 24th, 2012 at 12:54 pm
tony, eve or Anyone following the US $
Does it have more downside potential or will it reverse and go up?
February 24th, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Another proof that 4 crossing 9 works like a charm. Husky has had a great run in the last three weeks. I own it, perhaps I should sell now (since it’s touching upper keltner) and then rebuy back on a pullback. Any opinions on Husky?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HSE.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p43420688513
February 24th, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Eve, I picked up hvu at the close yesterday at $8.53 prior to reading your yesterday’s post on hvu.
For now hvu can only be a day trade – even then… total gamble.. a “rush”.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:03 pm
Sap
sorry its not cyberuniversity but cyber trading university.
When I took the seminar thru tradefreedom, itshowed how to use the level 2 data, and profit from it.
am having hard time explaining, basic idea is level2 shows you all the buyers and sellers, so by this you can easily find supply/demand and trade upon it, making easy 20cents on 1000shares would give 200$/day for an easy 1K a week or 50K/yr.
I found it hard using it on companies that have major interest like a bac,
I had found companies with less interest so I used to look at top and bottom price and looked where price was moving
example if bottom bid stopped declining I would look at the top ask price to see when it started to climb and simply moved in and made
tho this is for daytraders as I am more of a swing trader. I did make money but you must cn’t leave your computer for not even a second.
Its not my style.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:05 pm
#60 – Great trade Slava!! Make sure your stop loss is set tight and watch it like a hawk, but nothing is curling down on that chart – it could go on – but who knows what the weekend brings. My motto is – if you have profit – take it!
NTR
I was supposed to be on the road today – but Hubby afraid of driving in the snow – out of practice LOL
February 24th, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Here is the link to level 2 description
http://www.cybertradinguniversity.com/free-courses/discover-level-3-trading-how-shadow-dominant-market-makers
February 24th, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Tawny,
The USD is looking weak. Macd recording a sell signal on UUP. However it is nearing some supprt at it’s 200dma. It could bounce up to it’s 4dma but keep in mind the 4dma is falling (it will be lower tomorrow then it is today).
February 24th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Michael, CMG is super overvalued! Eve posted an excellent article from seekingalpha the other day re CMG’s valuation… yet for now there are no sellers, anemic volume. It traded only 150k shares so far today. If one of the funds presses a sell button watch it drop. Anyways, I really screwed up this trade. I should have day traded CMG only.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:13 pm
IOo IOo IOoIOo
DD BJ good call on the 200MA now below previous resistance 100MA is your major suppor.
Ioo Ioo IOoIOo
get my drift? Snow white and the 7 dwarfs.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Hi Eve,
Thank you for your post # 9. I was wondering if you could give me TA and entry point for XEG.to. Any other oil stocks you can suggest for seasonal play.
Great Thanks, Ania
February 24th, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Just kidding DD and BJ its IO that moved from 7.10 to 7.67 for 8% in 2 single days.
told you prefer it to tck.
so I can say that I am 8% Happy in two days.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:16 pm
#58
VLO is good for intraday short. A break under 25 then 22 would be tested. Be ware, in bull market, sometimes short doesn’t work well.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:17 pm
Tony,
Too funny!
So you bought IO eh! Good for you.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:18 pm
tony #69
IO – WOW how do you find these stocks? using a search filter?
February 24th, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Tony,
My problem is when to hold and where the resistance is. When I am looking at a chart I can find an entry point, but times like this when very uncertain do I make a purchase or just wait for the pullback. I hear so many different views, I get confused. Should I or should I not?
February 24th, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Lin, remember how we were discussing US real estate sometime in 2011? Well, apparently prices are up quite a bit in Miami and the rest of Florida. My parents are so chocked as they were planning to buy two condos in Miami about a year ago but they ended up cancelling their trip twice because of various issues. So US real estate is finally on the move! My best friend is a real estate agent in San Fran and she said the activity is pickingi up tremendously and people are starting to pay over asking! Sounds like Vancouver market from 2001 to 2011 (with a dip in late 2008/early 2009).
February 24th, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Slava,
HVU climbing up
February 24th, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Lin,
I am Not short VLO, but I am doing ok with a couple of solar shorts
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?FSLR,TSL,TAN,STP,KWT,JKS,HSOL,PWER,PBW,SPWR,CSUN,ASTI|B
For some reason, these are being sold. TAN is the etf for solars.
With oil increasing in price daily, you would think solars would rally?
No Way!……. Go figure!
February 24th, 2012 at 1:27 pm
So I shorted 600 CP as it did the “double top” today.. now watching and thinking when to cover.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:28 pm
DD
have to tell the truth when I bought it my stop was 3% below the 50MA as Hist started to move north, If I had bought it when we first talked about it macd showed more promising signs so I would have loosened my stop loss to 6%
oops 8% is my profit since i bought prior to close on the 16th
now I have my trailing stop on.
If it could break through that 200MA on 60min chart would be so nice.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:28 pm
So I shorted 600 CP as it did the “double top” today.. now watching and thinking when to cover.
Also watching hvu.. hopefully can get out at break even today.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:29 pm
Oil: Parabolic
11:58 AM Iran has sharply increased production of enriched uranium over the last 4 months, according the IAEA, which says it has “serious concerns” over the military dimension of the county’s nuclear work. Oil pops higher, especially Brent, jumping about $0.70 to $124.34/barrel.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Tawny,
I was going to suggest that you paper trade hou and hod…mostly hou.
Try different indicators after the day is over to see if anything would help read where hou will go.
Yesterday this was an easy trade, today not so much.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:31 pm
HSE
Slava,
Didn’t ever think you would buy a snoozle stock like hse, this is my pace, normally. I’m thinking you paid around the 24.50 level, so you got 8 – 10% in less then a month. I’m happy with 12% in a year! Guess it depends how loose (or tight) your pockets are.
b
February 24th, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Tawny,
Of course this would be a day trade. See how many thousands of shares you would need to make your goal for the day. Do not worry, your limits with this would always be filled.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Ray-K
Holy (cow manure)! That must be why HVU shot up… FEAR – ha ha the guy on TV – Commodity hot shot – sold his oil saying it would peak out soon at $110. Everybody goofs some times!
February 24th, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Brian and Slava,
Hap Sneddon of Castlemore had HSE as one of his top picks on
BNN last night. I think he recommended buying it on a pullback though.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Eve
Regtarding day trading OIL, Hou / hod – would the sytstem you showed me work with this? I don’t see why not.
Ana,
Thanks – are your still trading NG as well?
February 24th, 2012 at 1:41 pm
I sold hvu at $8.66 since I may have to go into a meeting in a few minutes… perhaps I should have put a stop loss but the way this thing moves I’m not sure how the stop loss would have worked out.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:43 pm
Brian, yes, I own both Husky and Suncor. I used to own BMO but sold all a few weeks ago above $60, may re-enter soon. They have a good dividend and vast operations in the USA.. since US economy is picking up I’m sure BMO will benefit.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:47 pm
3rd time trading hgd today.. with a stop loss. It seems to me that there will be some profit taking in gold stocks before the weekend.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:47 pm
and hvu is on the move.. just like that..
February 24th, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Hi Tony,
I am wondering about the real meaning of future contracts (this represent option trading?) and short and long positions.
Short position (means 1 day to 1 month?), long position (means 1 month to 6 months?.
Sorry for being a pain, I am trying to understand and learn TA.
Happy trading, Ania
February 24th, 2012 at 1:50 pm
Vix has to move into the 4MA territory
February 24th, 2012 at 1:50 pm
oops
again think i’m aging to fast. vix has to close near the 4MA if we want fear to be kept at bay.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Some of my Cdn juniors are starting to roll over again..a sign of things to come for the broad markets.. Russell 2000 is also starting to run out of steam.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
tony
VIX and HVU do not seem to trade at all in tandem.
BTW anyone know that there is a short VIX – XIV. Maybe some day traders want to switch between VIX and XIV : think it would be too wild for me.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:57 pm
74#
Slava
Thanks for input. I think it is still time to buy hourse in US, was better time when we discussed.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Tawny,
No, I find the price of HND too much for a day trade in my TFSA. I prefer to just concentrate on crude oil at the moment.
I have been trading oil, as well in my RRSP.
What system would this be? Is that the sma 4 and 9 cross?
Also picked up more HVU today.
I have always used the bollinger bands based on an 18 day ma, to trade with instead of Keltner Channels, so I use different format. I check the Keltner Channels, to compare at the end of the day with my charts.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Ray
Uranium stocks had a spike in volume in the last week but moved an avg of 50% in 3months
and now they mention this
looks to suspicious to me,
feels like GW bush attack on Irak because of “weapons of mass destruction” which by the way his top officials were telling him there was no evidence of his allegations.
Still dn’t understand why they can’t simply have a quiet talk and finally get it together something in the middle east is brewing but not sure Iran is the cause of it. but they are getting blamed for it.
February 24th, 2012 at 1:59 pm
Slava
If you have profit on CP just take it. this stock just pull back for other run, forgive me to see that. And I may wrong..
February 24th, 2012 at 2:01 pm
These markets are too funny – and sometimes so predictable! I say this because the DOW is “trying” to get thru its high from 2008 of 13000 – and SPX is trying to get thru its high from last year of 1370 – and the TSX is trying to get thru a resistance point of 12763 and then next one at 12798 – and ALL of these indexes today have bumped up or gone over each of their respective resistance levels I’ve just given – SPX got to 1368, TSX got to 13,763, and DOW got to 13,013 – and now ALL of these indexes have rolled over today! Oh and as I’m writing this, they are now going back up again to try those resistance levels I’m sure, yet again! These markets are just too funny! LOL
eve
February 24th, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Hi, Tawny
You were really good at these bear trades you did before. Now Market is trending up, you just simply switch these bull trades. OR if you already in cash position , just take a break to rethink about it again. Say a week, to clear mind.
February 24th, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Ania
Future contracts is a commodity term meaning you are buying something in advance. ex gold trading 1700 today is not the price you will be paying it today you will be paying last month price. same goes for all other commodities.
when you go at the pump and you know the barrel of oil is worth 108$ and ask yourself how come oil at 1.2$/L as when now oil at 100$ oil is at 1.3$/L well this is simply the fact that you are not paying 1.3 is because you fulled on oil that was bought at 96$/barrel.
Being long is when you hold for more then 3yrs when medium you hold between 1-3yrs, and short term you hold below 1yr.
February 24th, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Lin,
I remember you play the long oil trade with short air lines. What happens to the rails, when oil goes up? Do they decline with the transportation index?
February 24th, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Rol Lew
I don’t do too much trading now unless something come on my screen. Have holded these positions. and waiting and seeing.
February 24th, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Here we go with HVU, does today, indicate a double bottom?
February 24th, 2012 at 2:20 pm
HVU,
Guess it’s just trying to get to it’s 18 on the 5 day chart. It’s a wild thing!!
b
February 24th, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Ana
Haven’t looking into that yet, but I have set up some Untilites trades so far.
February 24th, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Stepped out for 20 minutes and hvu is at 9.08.. damn.
February 24th, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Hi Tony,
Thank you very much for the explanation. What does it mean shorting a stock (does this means selling a stock @ lower price than the purchase price).
I appreciate your help Tony
February 24th, 2012 at 2:26 pm
CJ,
#13
Slava #10 – Where can you see real time quotes for Canadian Stocks – mine are all 15-20 min delayed.
Someone on this board suggested ADVFN.com a while back, it shows real time for cnd and 15 minute delay for US. I have been using it and has worked well for me.
Hope that helps.
February 24th, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Hi Eve. Indeed, the markets are too funny for words. Regarding gold, what would you expect gold and gold shares to do up until PDAC (March 4 to 7)? Thanks.
February 24th, 2012 at 2:35 pm
WOW! After watching my stuff go sideways – watching HVU is almost dizzying! Congrats to all that called it!
February 24th, 2012 at 2:35 pm
sold hgd again.. $8.08… hvu! What a recovery. Michael was right about hvu going up almost each Friday afternoon.
February 24th, 2012 at 2:37 pm
HVU
Well it just blew thru that. Oil up, Vix up, maybe Mr. market thinks high oil prices might effect earnings, let alone the economy! Fun watching this, crazy market!!!
b
February 24th, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Well, crude went to $109.89 three times today…so HOD.
February 24th, 2012 at 2:44 pm
PMG is making nice upward moves lately. Could it be the
next Petro Rubiales? (That was my all-time favorite – it
gave me over 3000% profit when I bought warrants for 70 cents
in the darkest days of the 2008 lending crisis that
I later redeemed at $15 when they expired to purchase
the underlying stock that then proceeded to double). Taught
me that trades excecuted during worst case scenarios can be
the most profitable. But also taught me never to trade against
market trends (lost a lot of dough trying to get into the market
when the overall trend was downward).
February 24th, 2012 at 2:46 pm
sorry that was pacific rubiales PRE-T.
February 24th, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Any guesses if Plunge Protection team will step in during the final hour to prop up the markets?
February 24th, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Hi Slava. Actually, HVU has been up at some time during the past two Fridays (today, so far, makes three). I bought and sold a day later a couple of weeks ago noticing a pattern like this. I sat on my hands this morn and didn’t get in…
February 24th, 2012 at 2:47 pm
HVU
The question is will it hold or sell off – was this a few moments of fear or is the fear enough to hold out today ??? It is coming down now.
February 24th, 2012 at 2:52 pm
Michael,
Markets a re all comihng down now – is this just the day traders exiting or will the down trend hold through the close ? You watch closely (as I see with HVU) so maybe you have an opinion on this?
February 24th, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Not that I’m posting a latest video but this is what I just viewed few mins. ago & thought of sharing it here. Still not been able to follow the markets close enough that I used to do but then again, hope is the one that keeps everyone alive!
http://www.theuptrend.com/GLD-SPDR-Gold-Trust-ETF-Trend-Watch-20120223.htm
hope it helps
February 24th, 2012 at 2:54 pm
Jimmy, I hope you bought hvu this morning.. you would have timed it perfectly.
February 24th, 2012 at 2:54 pm
My new greatest wish in life (besides health and world peace) is to have a crystal ball reflecting the movements of HVU!
February 24th, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Ania, Tawny, Michael,
Read your posts / questions – will answer all later today
Eve
February 24th, 2012 at 2:55 pm
CJ, did you sell RVBD this morning?
February 24th, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Chart question, can someone help on this simple thing please.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p41565754592&a=258617566&listNum=11
The bars just above the months at the bottom of the chart – do these indicate volume? Some are red and some blue – does this pertain to buying vs selling? Dah !
February 24th, 2012 at 2:57 pm
gmsa, our goal should be to get so good at trading that we no longer need our day jobs.. corporate slavery is not how I want to spend the next 30 years!
February 24th, 2012 at 2:59 pm
HVU today:
Looks like it was trying to get back up to its 4 day MA on the “daily” chart – that price was $9.26 – HVU made it
Oh just refreshed the HVU chart – 4 day MA has moved up for today to $9.49 – so, will HVU make that new level today too? guess we’ll see
eve
February 24th, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Yes, plunge protection team arrived at 3 p.m.
February 24th, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Tony: Regardless of what Iran is doing, they win. $125 for Brent. More $ for their Oil to finance their nuclear ambitions. Unless the rhetoric tones down, we could see Brent move to $150 soon.
February 24th, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Twany ,
If I’m not mistaken, red bars market was down that day, black bars market was up that day.
February 24th, 2012 at 3:03 pm
CMG is UP. AGAIN. ALWAYS.. this is getting too funny really. How can they get away with it?
And another valuation call:
http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/chipotle-chipotle-stock-panera-panera-stock/2/24/2012/id/39584
February 24th, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Slava #126 – nope Has not reached my breakeven point yet Slava still watching and waiting.
February 24th, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Tawney #127 Yes, Yes & Yes!!!!
February 24th, 2012 at 3:07 pm
turn on BNN:
David Prince in about a minute will be discussing something dramatic will be happening in the markets within the next 2 months – his charts are telling him this! He’s on BNN every Friday! Great guest to watch!!
Eve
February 24th, 2012 at 3:07 pm
Hi Tawny. Tough one to call. But if I were to guess, I would think that HVU would attempt to get closer to the 4-day MA at $9.50 (on the monthly chart), which would mean that the market would likely drift down before we close. However, we will often see reduced volatility in the final hour as we head into the weekend. I say flip a coin!
February 24th, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Tawny,
#97
I was wondering if you could respond to what indicators you would use.
February 24th, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Nick
Thanks for your input. I have pretty much concluded that on my charts which are red and blue – this is when the market is up or down and it does disolay volume. When looking at 30 min charts and lesser time frames one sees many bars which are red or blue… and that ryhmes with, thank you
February 24th, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Anyone, Like to know where to put a trailing stop on SDRL; I was thinking 38.50.
February 24th, 2012 at 3:23 pm
down $10k on CMG short now.. WTF?
February 24th, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Tony. When you bot IO on the 16th you must not have waited for the Wm%R(7) to cross; is that correct?
February 24th, 2012 at 3:25 pm
CMG volume 250,000 shares traded.. it just keeps going up every day. This is the weirdest trading I’ve witnessed on any stocks. Robots move it in 100-share blocks.
February 24th, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Tawny,
That is now post #98.
I was suggesting that you day trade HOU and HOD. I have had very good success with it over the years.
I have corrected a few mistakes that I continuously made and if I could just follow my rules. That is very humorous, I make rules for yourself that work and I have a hard time to follow them!
February 24th, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Anyone, Need help, looks like NG is moving against me. I,m long UNG at 21.29, have a stop at 20.95, wondering if the 18MA will provide support at 21.35.
February 24th, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Hi Michael:
Re: #41 ERF
I posted a question to Canuck about this company either yesterday or the day before, questioning where the company will get the money to pay its huge dividend, since its forward earnings are estimated to be significantly less than the dividend. The CEO was just on BNN with the answer: They’re borrowing to pay for it. So I’m asking again: Isn’t this just cannibalizing the company?
Maria
February 24th, 2012 at 3:44 pm
BJ #146 – Why wait for stop loss – get out now as every indicator on this chart points downward.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=UNG&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p35364409961
Futures on NG have been in the red all day alsoQ
February 24th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Hi Ania,
Re: #68
Did you see Rol Lew’s excellent post from Feb. 18? In case you didn’t:
Rol Lew Says:
February 18th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
“I for one would really love to see the day when people come
here predominantly to give trading ideas, or to talk about
a trade that is working, or even one that is not – but saying why.
But what is more usual here is people looking for someone
else’s opinion on this or that stock. But the truth is – nobody
really knows the future – so my “guess” is as good as yours.
Each person really really needs to have his / her own plan.
His/ her own entry & exit strategies
Do not care what somebody else here or on BNN or on CNBC says.
Do not care about europe or bernamke or merkel – you will never
know beforehand what they will do, and by the time you find out,
you have already been screwed.
Choose your few charts, and just trade those, over & over.
Choose your strategies, and just trade those, over & over.
Write down your do’s and dont’s & stick to them.
There must be over 10000 common stocks you can trade –
all you need to look at is at most a couple dozen of them.
With stocks you just need to understand & do you own thing……”
Excellent advice, thank you Rol. It’s all about learning to fish for oneself. In the end, you’re the only one you can count on.
Maria
February 24th, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Ania
Short selling is when you think stock price is overvalued and feel it will correct soon so you want to put a bid as it goes down you will make money on it.
now you have the longs who think price will move higher and the shorts who think price will move lower
will leave it at that.
February 24th, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Maria: Yes it is is. Borrowing to pay a dividend is a fools game. Take a look at ARF (Armtec) or YLO (Yellow Pages). It only lasts so long, unless you are the US government. Then, you have a few more years.
February 24th, 2012 at 3:56 pm
SandP was higher earlier in the day and now is lower. HAC.to was lower and now wil close higher. Almost directly inverse. Just observing.
February 24th, 2012 at 3:59 pm
tawny
the bars at the bottom of the chart is the volume if red means it closed below the the open if green (blue or black) means it closed above the open of that time frame.
February 24th, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Ana
Re #145 Here is a sample chart at 5 min.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVU.TO&p=5&b=4&g=0&id=p29687762025&a=258308236&listNum=11
Please do let me know if these setting will work with trading HOD and HOU.
Can you let me know anything else that could be helpful, please.
February 24th, 2012 at 4:10 pm
tony
Thanks re the bars. Can you tell me how you find your stocks like IO and the rare earth, etc. How do you come buy tehse finds – pssst! I’ll keep it a secret. LOL
February 24th, 2012 at 4:11 pm
NTR
Something has changed with my computer setup because now when I leave TechTalk and go to something else for ex. a chart someone has posted, when I return, to techtalk I get bounced to the top of the session. Before I used to return to the place I was at in techtalk.
Any suggestions from anyone?
Thanks
February 24th, 2012 at 4:15 pm
hi Ania,
I think you need a more comprehensive explanation on what a short sell is than the explanation that tony just gave
sorry tony but even “I” didn’t follow your explanation on what short selling is 
Ok Ania:
IF say a stock is overbought on the chart and say is trading at $45 – and if you think the stock will be coming down in price from that $45 level, then IF you have a “shorting” account with your brokerage you use (you must apply to have a shorting account BUT if you only have an RRSP account, then you cannot short anything using that account) – so, if you have a shorting acct and if you think the stock will come down in price and get to say $40, then you would put in a sell order in your shorting account of how many shares you want to short – say 100 shares – so your order would be to sell 100 shares at say $44.90 – and if the stock is trading at say $45, then your order will get filled. Then, once the stock drops below that price of $44.90 to a level you think the stock has stopped its decline (say you think it stopped at $41 and will now move up again in price), then you put in a BUY order in your shorting account at $41 in order to buy back that stock you sold. Thus, you would have gained $3.90 on that 100 shares which equates to $390 in your trading account in a gain. Now the issue with shorting is that in order for you to sell a stock that you do not OWN (you can ONLY short a stock that you do not own) – then the brokerage must BORROW those shares from one of its other clients in order to give those shares to YOU – so you can sell them (ie. short them). Now the person doesn’t actually see any shares leaving their account as this is all done behind the scenes at the brokerage such that no one knows if their shares in a stock are being borrowed or not. then when you buy back those shares at the lower price to what you sold them for (as in, for what price you SHORTED them at), then those shares get given back to the person they were borrowed from at the brokerage. The risk in shorting (even though it is a small risk but still a risk nonetheless) is that if say a lot of people are shorting the same stock such that the brokerage has loaned out ALL of their clients’ owned shares in the stock to the clients who’ve shorted the stock, and if say one of those OWNERS of the stock sells their shares and the brokerage has no one at their firm they can borrow more shares from in order to cover YOUR short, then the brokerage could call you at that point and tell you that you MUST buy back those shorted shares right now – and you’ll need to buy back those shares at whatever price they are trading at at that point in time. So, say you shorted at $44.90 BUT the price went up to say $47 BEFORE it started to come down to that $41 level – and say at that $47 price point, the person who owns those shares SELLS their shares and thus, YOU get a call from your broker saying you must now buy back those shares you shorted, then you would be forced to cover that short at that $47 level – and thus, you would be in a LOSS position of $47 – $44.90 = $2.10 which equates to a negative $210 in your shorting account.
So, THAT is what shorting a stock is AND how it works! There’s another rule regarding shorting that must be obeyed in Canada when shorting a Cdn stock – called the “uptick rule” – but when shorting a US stock, they no longer have that rule top worry about. Just google uptick rule in shorting if you’re interested to know what it is.
ok so now for good oil stocks to look at:
in the US – look at: HFC, HAL, BHI, CVE, SU, BTE, SLB, CVX, DVN, – i finf SLB, HFC, HAL, and BHI to be the best.
for Cdn ones: look at: PRE, PMG, PBN, PBG, SU, BTE, CVE, CNQ
As for XEG:
It’s overbought – it is best to wait for oil to come down in price before buying in to ANY of these stocks OR into XEG.
Hope this helps Ania
Eve
February 24th, 2012 at 4:17 pm
BJ
No W%R was not at above 50 until the next day but MACD H moved higher on a 15min chart and it was the MACD MA that puzzled me as it didn’t move lower as price was moving lower, secondly, plus I said to my self If I could move in at the low end of the tail I would take a stab at it,
I am not to tell you that I didn’t have have my doubts after I had bought it to see price continuing to move lower to 7.06 I was there with my questions and what if I did a mistake and tomorrow the sell off continues. but having my 3% protection on my side I knew what ever happened the next day I would move out either being stopped or triggered by me if it broke below my 3%
When I saw the big spike in volume at the close all my worries were gone.
February 24th, 2012 at 4:20 pm
149 # Maria
Thanks for reposted.
Rol Lew
Good say. It is about me… how I trade for living… hahahah have a great weekend!
February 24th, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Thank you Maria.
In process of learning to fish for oneself, in meantime, I have limited knowledge and don’t trust myself in making decisions. Could you please tell me how did you learn. What books or website you rely on.
I am reading chartschool (stochcharts)and reading the book from John Murphy. However, it takes time to understand and apply.
Thanks Maria and thank you Rol Lew
February 24th, 2012 at 4:25 pm
Thank you Tony
Have yourself a great weekend, Ania
February 24th, 2012 at 4:27 pm
Hi Eve,
I am printing the information for reading later. I appreciate your input and have a great weekend, Ania
February 24th, 2012 at 4:28 pm
Tawny,
Yes that system will work with HOD/ HOU – yes, it will work with all stocks/ ETF’s on the 5 minute chart or 15 min chart or hourly chart etc. I’ve also added the bollinger band to my 5 min charts and each stock tends to ALWAYS respect the bollinger band throughout the day on that 5 min chart I use – and on the 15 min chart I sometime use too! I find it is a really good addition to the 4/9/18 AND the other indicators I have on those 5 min charts too
I don’t get the keltner channel with TDW, so that’s why I use the bollinger – but it works well on that 5 min chart, so I’m happy with it!
Hope this helps
eve
February 24th, 2012 at 4:31 pm
BJ
… but on a 15min chart MACD H trended higher then lower and then sideways but as price was coming down and so was the MACD H, the MACD MA puzzled me as it stalled there. Secondly I said to myself If I could move in at the low end of the tail I would take a stab at it,
If you read Sam Sedein you would know this was support area.
here is a daily chart well I put this into practice on IO.
February 24th, 2012 at 4:31 pm
sorry here is the chart I am refering to
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BIN.TO&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p33997622238&a=256794844
February 24th, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Hi Eve,
Re# 157
I deeply appreciate you taking the time and writing the information for oil stocks and ETF.
I hope you don’t mind that I ask questions, it seems some people are suggesting to fish for oneself when you have limited knowledge and new to the trade. Probably, I am not as smart as they are and they are well versed in trading.
Thank you very much Eve.
February 24th, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Michael,
Normally gold goes up at the end of each month and into the beginning of the next month. Yes, normally gold goes up into the PDAC conference. Gold today only pulled back to its 4 day MA of $1773 (it pulled back to $1172 and then closed at $1776 – referring to spot gold). It is overbought on the stochastics and on RSI and looks like it is starting to roll over. So, perhaps gold will pull back just a bit to the 9 day MA at $1747 and then it will have room to run higher into the beginning of March and into the PDAC conference of back up to close to $1800 resistance (or top of keltner which currently is at $1796 – as you know too Michael
).
so, that’s all I can give you on gold re the PDAC conference Michael – hope this helps regardless
eve
February 24th, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Ania
Don’t worry! You are getting there. All the best! And never give up! Have great weekend!
February 24th, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Anybody can make any sense out of VXX after hours trading?
There was a buy at 16:00 – $ 23.7939 – 239,100 shares
and another one at 16:23 – $ 45.0846 (!!!) – 145,859 shares.
Puzzling, to say the least….
http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/vxx/after-hours
February 24th, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Hi Ania,
No, I don’t mind. It is sometimes easier to have things fully explained rather than trying to search several sources online or in books for what you’re looking for. And it’s ok – we all learn differently – so, it is completely acceptable AND understandable to me too that some people prefer to ask questions to someone they think may know the answer AND can explain it to them well too
So, I’m ok with you asking the questions Ania – it helps others on here learn too – others whom are also new to trading I mean OR just may not know the answer themselves but may be too shy to ask type of thing.
So, you feel free Ania to carry on with your questions as I for one, am ok with them
and hey, I’m often the one who’s answering your questions – plus whomever else you put the questions to – like tony for example – so, if I’m ok with it and I’m sure tony’s ok with it too (if he weren’t, I’m sure he’d say so), then it’s ok with me anyway, for you to continue to ask 
eve
February 24th, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Tawny
1 scan CNBC for companies that rarely come up on the scolling ticker,. they are king for this
Options on m-x also can find rare jews.
avl this was on bnn before they changed their ticker.(been trading this one for 7-10cents for the last few days as its stuck between the 50 and 100MA for the past few days) breaks below 50 am gone.
2 Do a search on google for companies with price range you feel confortable with( me its between 5-20) and avg volume > 500K
3 I Stick with 10 companies. at times I will add an extra company like I did with gte (still can’t believe I said on Jan 4th it was going to 6 and I let it slip through my hands arrrgh)
4 must have a diversified portfolio, so all ten companies are in different areas.
won’t have a 2 copper producer in my portfolio but can have on steel and a copper player.)
5 if a company I trade moved from 20 to 50 doesnt mean I will simply take it out of my watch list I keep it as long as i can play with it and make money will only take it out once it goes to 0 but I won’t be riding it there.
February 24th, 2012 at 4:59 pm
Thank you very much Eve. It seems it bothers some people that some of us new to trading can’t learn as fast or are not as smart.
Have a wonderful weekend, Ania
February 24th, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Anna,
there are bids the are put into place as all the others expire in the after hour market.
so I won’t look into it until monday
another few days and rrsp season will be done for.
February 24th, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Hi Paul and Maria. Regarding ERF, I agree that if one has to borrow in order to pay out a distribution would indicate that something is terribly wrong with the business model. I`ll leave it up to Paul to determine if this would be appropriate for his portfolio.
February 24th, 2012 at 5:24 pm
CY, Thanks I was thinking the same thing.
February 24th, 2012 at 6:18 pm
ANIA #166
Long before I began to post here, I monitored and I need to thank you Ania, because your questions and the generous answers given were my learning tools; not that I have learned enough yet, but I got my start thanks to your questions, so thank you Ania and keep asking!
February 24th, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Hi Maria and Michael, re 174, thanks for the discussion. Maria, you make a great point. Hope you both have a great weekend.
February 24th, 2012 at 7:09 pm
eve,ania
congratulations eve on an excellent piece of writing which explained short selling very well.
February 24th, 2012 at 8:40 pm
200 new highs today
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=140&s=ta_newhigh&r=181
8 new lows
103 top gainers
66 top losers
February 24th, 2012 at 11:37 pm
Ania,
SHORTS!!!
I know I’m gonna get feed back from the board, but if you want to short stocks, first learn how to swim in a shark tank, with bait attached to your @ss!!!!!!! You can get squeezed out in a heart beat, and the cost can be huge. Not sure if you’re talking contracts, but the price can be, “on my god!!!! Better off buying lotto tickets, safer anyway. This is a, dedicated full time, high stress trade. Please don’t do it. You might get lucky a couple of times, cocky even, then whamo!!! Special dividend pay out, (and guess who pays the dividend to the owner,) and if the price has doubled and the owner wants to sell, guess who is going to pay the price??? Stops may not always work!!!
Ok guys, give it to me, I’m a big boy!
Take care Ania,
b
February 24th, 2012 at 11:52 pm
#180
should read, “large contracts”
tired
b
February 25th, 2012 at 12:04 am
Hi Brian eh?
I am only trying to understand the terminology and everything fit together.
Thank you for your input.
Cheers, Ania
February 25th, 2012 at 12:25 am
Hi Eve,
What would be the ideal pull back price for oil for a possible entry point -stocks or ETF. I usually watch the price of oil on BNN, any suggestion?
Greatest Thanks, Ania
February 25th, 2012 at 12:33 am
Ania (and others)
Good evening. Guess I should have read your post again. Thought you were really going to take on a short position, just not seeking info.
that’s a wrap
nite
b
February 25th, 2012 at 12:56 am
dd,
Re: real time Canadian quotes
You could buy a subscription to Stockcharts that has that, plus lots of other good features. I find it’s worth the money.
Maria
February 25th, 2012 at 12:58 am
Ray-Kitchener,
Re: #151
Yes, I learned the borrowing-to-pay-shareholders lesson really, really well with my experience with YLO!! Didn’t enjoy the lesson much, but it stuck.
Maria
February 25th, 2012 at 1:01 am
Larry,
Re: # 156
Happened to me too; very aggravating. I think the problem is with IE. Try using Firefox – doing so fixed the issue for me.
Maria
February 25th, 2012 at 6:12 am
Tony & others were mentioning Fausto Pugliese
& Cyber Trading University, a couple days ago….
He will be speaking at 12 Noon – central time today 25th,
with tom busby, & brian sapp of schaeffer’s research
http://webinar.dtitrader.com/20120225/RegisterPage.aspx?ActID=951
February 25th, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Ania, I mostly agree with Brian regarding short selling… I shorted cmg, lulu and cp in January based on the overbought conditions, etc. – well I’m down around $20k on these three short positions. All my fault since I didn’t cut my losses quickly and just kept the positions. I still haven’t covered them (well, I’ve been trading a lot of CP lately and made my money back on that stock).
Overally I think there is nothing wrong with shorting individual securities yet one needs to follow strict rules (especially someone who is new to shorting). To improve your odds of success here are some of my observations based on recent experiences:
- don’t short “momentum” stocks even if they are showing overbought conditions. Lulu and CMG were showing very overbought positions when I entered my trades in January yet they continue to go up
- take a reasonable position and know when you will cut your loss.. even that may not work well since the day after I shorted lululemon the stock jumped over 10% at the opening since the company released a very positive news annoucement prior to the market opening
- don’t short when the overall markets are going up (just like they have been in the last two months – you are fighting a trend).. it’s much easier to short when stocks are falling. When you become more experienced you can try to short certain stocks intraday based on their price movements, etc.
- don’t short stocks with very high institutional ownership and low average daily volume (like CMG)
- don’t short small caps or other companies which may be bought by another co. (so oil/gas, gold, biotech, etc.) – the loss on a short position can be very large.
February 25th, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Thank you novice investor
Glad to be of help 
Eve
February 25th, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Hi Ania,
I would say to wait until oil pulls back to a support level like the 9 day ma (at $104.44) OR, if it falls below that price, then it will most likely head towards the mid keltner at $102.27. This is the seasonal period for oil (until May), so any pullbacks in oil price may not be that deep – so, a healthy pullback would bring oil back to $100 BUT, with these Iran tensions going on AND with seasonality for oil, it may just not get back down to that level in the near term – so, then look for it to pull back to the 9 day MA OR to the mid keltner – and remember: these prices will be different every day as the price of oil is different every day too! So, the 9 day MA in 2 days from now (ie. on Tuesday) will be different than what is showing on Friday’s chart. So, just watch oil and the chart each day and see where oil stops falling in price – it should be at either the 9 day OR the mid keltner. Here is the chart so you can save it and then hit refresh on it daily so you can see the prices change each day on the chart for the 9 day and mid keltner etc.:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$WTIC&p=D&b=6&g=0&id=p20828561697
Eve
February 25th, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Hi Ania,
What to make of your posts #166, #172? “I am not as smart as they are and they are well versed in trading;” “seems it bothers some people that some of us new to trading can’t learn as fast or are not as smart.”
I’m not one to beat around the bush. “They, some people”- are you referring (in part) to me? If so, I’d appreciate it if you’d address your comments to me.
February 25th, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Hi Brian eh?,
While I don’t short myself, I don’t really agree with what you wrote at post 180 on shorts – and this is why:
I personally, bought stocks last year – PRIOR to May – May: the “bad period” starting for stocks – during SEASONALLY strong periods for this sector (copper) – I bought FM.TO in Feb. 2011 and TCK.B.TO in March 2011 – and as soon as I bought TCK.B, it started going down – DURING its seasonally strong period AND during a time AFTER it had come down from an overbought condition (made in Jan at over $60) – I bought it just for a day trade – I ended up holding it for over a month (into April) and it NEVER came back up to my buy in price!! I had bought 4000 shares and ended up selling it at $47.05 for a total loss of over $30,000!! And to this day, it has not even come back up to my SELL at a loss price of $47 – let alone my buy in price of over $50! Now HAD I just SHORTED that stock instead of buying it, I would have held that short all the way down to $30 – and that $30k loss would have been a $100k gain by September!!! on a SHORT!
Similarly, with FM.TO, I bought just 1500 shares one day last Feb. (around $115 / share) and the very next day, FM went up by $9!! YET, I didn’t sell it – instead, I bought a bit more of it (1000 shares at around $124 at closing that day of the markets) – and why did I do that?? because I was going to sell the entire lot the very next day at what I “thought” would be a profit for all shares – yet, the very next day, the stock came down – it meandered for a few days around my buy in price on the SECOND buy I did on it (it went up by 20 cents from my buy in price BUT was mostly DOWN from my buy in price – in those days, it was sometimes down by over $4 from my buy in price but then went up again to get back to my buy in price) – ALL of this was done during the SEASONAL PERIOD for COPPER AND for stocks in general – and FM trades on the copper price!! And what happened after those few days?? The stock PLUMMETTED!!! And I ended up selling ALL the shares – as a big loss on the second buy and just a small gain of around $1600 on the first buy I had done with it. If I hadn’t have sold when I did (at $116), I would have been in a worse position because within the week, the stock went down to $101.00. Now, had I SHORTED that stock at that $124 level INSTEAD of buying those 1000 shares, then within the week, I would have made $23,000 due to the stock going down to $101.00.
I can give you SEVERAL more examples of my “bad luck” last year of buying a stock BUT then it went down (after it had gone up by just a bit each time – mostly by less than 40 cents gain on each stock – one was only a 5 cent gain on 2000 shares on the day I bought it in November – November: another seasonally strong time period for stocks AND in a time AFTER the markets had put in their lows in October – AND after this stock had come down from $45 in price to where I bought it at $41.01 – AND during a seasonally strong period for tech stocks – and this was a texch stock – I ended up selling it the next day at $39.90 and the stock went down to $39 that day. Within 3 days though, the stock had bounced up to $42 – and boy was I annoyed!!!
But anyway, I can give you SEVERAL examples of buying stocks AFTER they’ve come down off an overbought level (which means, they are strong stocks – not in a downtrend – but on uptrends) AND during seasonally strong periods for both the sector AND the month for stocks in general – AND I can even give you an example of a “safe” ETF I bought last year for the dividend – bought it at $15, sold it at $14, it went down to $12 and is now back at just $14 – and yet in EVERY ONE of those instances, the stock went down within a few days of my buying it! Now had I only just SHORTED each one of those stocks, I would have been laughing – all the way to the bank! Same thing occured in 2010 with TCK.B.To – buying it in April, it went down, sold at a loss – seasonally strong period for copper AND for the stock market in general. So many examples… yet in every case, “I” was on the losing end by BUYING something when “it seems” a SHORT SELL would have been a MUCH better option for myself!!!
Same thing too with RIM in 2009 and in 2010 – lost on several tries of buying/ selling – ALL at times when it was in the $70′s – after that experience with RIM – and after my last bad experience with RIM (in March 2010 when RIM was trading at $71 when I last sold it after i had bought it at $75 – the stock went down to $68 on the day I sold it at $71 – and has continued its decline ever since), I never touched RIM again!!! BUT, I was ALWAYS saying to a close friend of mine who LOOOOVED RIM stock, that RIM should just be shorted and NEVER bought – and I told him this because it seemed to me at the time that a person could have done SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO much better back then if one just shorted that stock rather than buying it – and that has proven to be VERY ACCURATE of a statement!!! I never short stocks – YET, last year when RIM was trading at over $60 on the day it was reporting earnings last Feb. (at around $68), i ALMOST short sold it at that $60 price as I figured it was going to miss earnings (as it had done in its last 2 quarters) and sure enough, shorting it that day would have been the BEST MOVE!!! As the stock just kept going down down down to $12.90 where it found its bottom (for now). I had contemplated shorting 4000 shares of it that day – hmmm, would have been a nice cha ching to the bank on that one!!! The next day, it went down over $8!! and of course, kept going all the way to $12.90 several months later!
So, no, I don’t really agree with what you wrote Brian on shorting – because when you get the timing right AND the right stock too, then a short can be VERY “much” MORE lucrative than ANY buy can be!
so, those are my 2 cents on it – and I gave you my personal experience of my examples just so you could see too how well a short CAN work for someone at the right time! IF I were to short something soon, I would short TCK.B.TO at either the $44 level (as that has strong resistance) OR at the keltner top which happens to be close by that $44 level at $43.24. And yes, if I were a “shorter”, I would not hesitate to short TCK.B at this time of year – even though it is a strong season for copper AND for stocks – right up until end of April.
So, that’s all I guess Brian
And I’ll just leave you with this: don’t be afraid to short (I don’t short for other reasons – it isn’t fear of losing based) – because shorting CAN be MANY times even BETTER than going long – EXCEPT for with momentum stocks like CMG, AAPL, or LULU for examples – I would NOT short those kind of stocks (if I were a “shorter” I mean 
).
Eve
February 25th, 2012 at 3:28 pm
Hi Maria,
You know that “I” for one on here, DO use people’s names when I am referring to someone in particular – you know I’m not too shy to do that
but I don’t think Ania was trying to say you in particular Maria – I think she really did mean “some people” – because Rol Lew had originally posted that post and then you reposted it – BUT, I am SURE, there are others on the board who feel the SAME way you both seem to feel about this (just as I am sure, there are others on the board who don’t feel the way you and Rol seem to feel about it). So, I’m sure that is why Ania did not put any names in her post as I’m sure she feels like it is several people on here who feel the way that Rol posted he feels about it (and that you reposted Rol’s post – thus showing you feel the same). So, please don’t take offence to Ania not saying a name directly in her post Maria – as I really do not believe that Ania meant to name any names in particular OR meant to offend anyone by “not” naming names (as some people get offended when other people write things on here but yet, that person doesn’t name in their post whom they’re referring to – yet, it is obvious by the way the post is written) – but with respect to Ania, she seems to be very conscientious and considerate towards others – so, I don’t believe at all that she meant anything about you directly, in what she wrote in her post. It just doesn’t seem like Ania to do that kind of thing.
I think Ania asking questions on here though Maria – or ANYONE asking questions on here of others – is really beneficial for everyone on the board! I have learned a lot from reading tony’s answers to people’s questions about what a stock will do in price etc. and tony’s answers using options calls and puts AND the 4/9/18 day thing – and if it weren’t for others on here asking questions, then tony would not have had any reason to supply the board with that info on options or the 4/9/18 day strategy. And I too would not have had any reason back in 2010 to give info on the board about the keltner channel – and that keltner channel is used now by MANY on this board AND they find it VERY useful!! And if it weren’t for my discussion on the keltner with Ron/BC back in 2010, then mick/nv would not have had a reason to share that HE was using the keltner for a long time and how useful he finds it – AND about his experience of using it with the non-default settings of 2.5 and 3.0 as an extreme setting. So, I think ALL questions on here Maria are ALWAYS good things to have as it helps everyone on the board – helps the person who asks the question AND sometimes helps the person they’ve posted the question to as well as they may bring a stock question to someone who has never looked at that stock before – I know that has happened with me personally with someone asking me a question on a stock – and then now I put that stock on my radar.
So, I’m sorry that you and Rol seem to feel this way about others on here asking questions, but honestly Maria, I really see it as more of a very beneficial thing to the board rather than anything that is unwanted or not helpful or a nuisance type of thing to the board.
I hope you don’t mind me conveying my feelings to you on this Maria – but I thought I should as I really and truly believe that Ania would not do or say anything on here that would be a slight against anyone on here – and so, I just wanted to say my peace on your post to Ania – about this issue and about the issue in general of asking questions on the board about stocks or strategies or how certain things are done (like shorting a stock for example). So, I really hope you don’t mind me sending you a response on this Maria – and just so it’s clear: my post is not meant to cause upset or hurt feelings or any kind of ill feelings at all – to you or to Rol for example – as everyone has a right to feel the way they do – and so I take no offence to you and Rol posting that post – but I just wanted to make it known (by a person whom often has the questions directed to her), that “I” for one, have no issue with anyone on here asking questions – as it helps everyone on here learn
Thanks Maria
eve
February 25th, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Hi Eve,
Thanks for your post. If I ever need someone in my corner, I think I’d choose you
Have I ever written that people shouldn’t post questions? My posts, and my agreement with Rol, are about doing some legwork first. There are many thoughtful, wise, generous people who post here (like you!) It’s respectful of their time that when we ask for help, we show that we’ve done our homework. Everyone learns even more from the thought processes shown in the answer AND in the question. As Rol pointed out, it’s the WHY that matters (that’s instructive) in both the question and the answer.
And I stand by my post to Ania. There’s also a conversation to be had there about what constitutes “fast learning” and being “smart.”
February 25th, 2012 at 5:10 pm
Hi Maria,
I understand what you’re saying Maria – but honestly, for myself anyway, it’s more time consuming for me to go through what someone else on here has done (in their own analysis or thru their own legwork) than it is for them to just ask me the question they want answered and then me just supply the answer. I’d prefer doing it that way – because if I had to first read through what they have done AND THEN critique it possibly and THEN go and do my analysis on it anyway, it’s just too time consuming for me. I know tony like’s people asking him a question with their own attempt at the answer already in the post – but for me, I’d rather just be asked the question and then I can supply the answer – quick and easy – the other, I have no time for really – that’s why I’ll rarely ever click on someone’s chart they’re asking me about with respect to a stock – and often times, I don’t even read their analysis – i’ll just read what they’re asking and then I’ll answer it
so, for me, that works 
Thanks Maria
PS a close friend of mine calls me “the great defender” because I defend so many people in life – people I may not even know but yet HE may have an issue with – like a friend and he’s telling me a story about and he’s upset with the friend – I come in and try to defend the friend’s actions type of thing LOL – hence, his pet name for me
Eve
February 25th, 2012 at 5:29 pm
Hi Eve,
Fair enough. That’s your call.
BTW, I’m cleaning out 4 years of stock market research paperwork (it did pile up before I went mostly paperless!) and came across a Thackray’s January 2009 newsletter with this about “the rising risk of a possible default by the Greek government on its debt obligations. Although an imminent default is not likely, expect the Euro to come under pressure as more Euro countries face their high debt problems, such as Spain and Portugal.”
Plus ca change…
Maria
February 25th, 2012 at 8:55 pm
Eve/ et al. Re SHORTS
When I’m wrong on my longs, it sits, (maybe) Won’t cost me a dime more.
If you’re wrong with shorts, don’t you get a call, or a little extra withdrawl from your cash account, or an outright sell at present market price, when it goes against you??? Wouldn’t you, Eve, agree that shorting is just a tad more stressful, and requires FULL TIME dedication?
Good evening
b
February 25th, 2012 at 10:19 pm
Eve, Maria
If I may, one smart philosopher once said giving a man a fish and he will have food for one day, teach him how to fish and he will never starve again.
I know back in august and october 2011 I could have kept my mouth shut and read the posts give out my feel of the economy how it should work and write more blablabla, but I decided to teach people how to look out for themselves. because yes I can make money trading, yes I make my mistakes getting in to early or exiting either to early or to late.
But simply giving out what someone wants to hear or not is not helping them because we must think this website is here because of Don V, but in a few years will this website still be here for us nobody here really thought of what next.
Giving out advice on a stock is easy to say its a BuyBuyBuy but how often did people here asked anyone of us should I say ByeByeBye to a stock? I for one bought stocks and rode it like a roller coaster only thing is roller coaster starts with a speed of 0 and ends when speed reaches zero stocks aren’t roller coasters as they don’t start with a speed of 0 but can end there.
why do I ask people to give me their assessment on a stock because no matter the work I did when I was younger I always had to learn by watching, and figure out what the person was doing or why this and not that. but when I had helpers I took the other way around I decided to do the opposite explain what we will be doing and how to go about it and finally ask them to show me they understood by putting it in practice.
I for one think its the best teaching you can get.
February 26th, 2012 at 12:20 am
Hi Brian eh?.
No, you only get a call to buy back the stock IF the client the brokerage “borrowed” your “short” shares from, has sold their shares AND the brokerage has no extra pool of sares available for that stock to take the place of the shares that the owner of those shares just sold. If the broker has more shares available for shorting, then they will give you those shares in place of the ones that got sold. This is all done behind the scenes and you as the client, don’t know this wrangling is going on. It is only when there are no more shares left in the brokers clients accounts that are available to short AND if the client they loaned you the shares from has sold their shares, that you would then get a call from the brokerage saying you must now buy those shares back – regardless of whetyher you are in a winning position OR a losing one. And according to TDW at least, getting a call from them in those kind of circumstances, is a rare event. So, that is not a big concern about shorting that a person REALLY NEEDS to worry about. Look at Slava’s short of CMG for example – slava has wrtten on here so often about how the amount of shares traded on the market in CMG is very small – yet Slava has had a short position in CMG for over a month now – and the trade has gone against her – and yet she has never been called by her brokerage that she needs to buy back those shares. She has a short too on LULU from over a month ago too – and she DID get a call from her brokerage telling her (about 3 weeks ago) that she needed to buy those shares back – yet, the brokerage gave her a few days to buy them back – and she was told if she didn’t buy them back, that the brokerage would be doing it for her – yet, she still has that short going on today – 3 weeks later – the brokerage has not covered the short and neither has Slava – and she hasn’t been called again by the brokerage about this either – so, this just tells me that the brokerage was able to find replacement shares for her short from a different client in the meantime of them telling her she needed to cover the short – to now, not even hearing from them since then AND them not covering her short. And, the LULU short is against Slava too as she shorted the stock at around $55 and the stock is currently trading at $66.
Hope this helps clarifies things further Brian
Eve
February 26th, 2012 at 12:35 am
Hi tony,
I can appreciate what you are saying – but as I wrote to Ania, we all learn differently – and for myself personally, I tend to learn better through reading info and taking in info that others are discussing – rather than taking stabs at things myself BEFORE I’ve “learned” the stuff first.
So for me, I am not good at learning through “doing” “BEFORE” I have fully “learned” it! So, I would not fish until I had done the research first of observing what others are doing, reading up in books of how it all works, and doing my own research – at that point, once I feel I’ve “learned” how it all works, THEN I will DO the fishing myself! And THAT’s how “I” learn! So, that’s why I said that everyone learns differently – I don’t learn well through trying something BEFORE I am ready for it – that’s just how it is for me – and I’m sure there are others out there too whom are just like me too! I have rarely ever asked anyone on here to analyze a stock – and why?? because i learned ON MY OWN how to do that by doing research of certain things online – and thru that, I found the keltner channel. I also learned through reading Don V’s daily letter (from summer 2009) and seeing how he used things like stochastics, RSI, and the 50 day and 200 day MA – I also learned through watching BNN and listened to people explain how things work and why things do what they do – for example, I learned that when things are looking good in the broader economy (like the US), then commodities such as oil and copper will then go up in price. If things are worsening, oil and copper will go down. I did not know this relationship before I started watching BNN back in 2009. I also did not know anything about seasonal inmfluences on stocks and sectors before I saw Don V. on BNN back in June 2009.
So, through observation, and thru my own research (online AND in books), and thru my own listening skills, and memory, and ability to notice patterns, and ability to retain things I hear about and read about and see through observation (like stocks having their own unique personalities in how they tend to trade each day as an individual stock), I was able to learn most of this stuff all on my own – not by “doing” but by “learning” through observation mostly and thru research and thru reading – reading posts on here for example and reading sites online and investment/ trading letters I receive, etc.! We all learn differently – that’s just how it is! So, I don’t think anyone should be penalized IF they cannot learn as quickly as others OR if they do not feel “comfortable” in gving an analysis on a stock before THEY feel they are ready to do it themselves, etc etc.
Hope this clarifies where I was coming from in what I wrote to Maria and to Ania, on this subject tony
Eve
February 26th, 2012 at 12:39 am
Hi Maria,
Ya, how strange eh Maria??! The SAME issue of Spring 2009 STILL plages the world and the markets, 3 years later!!! Just ridiculous really!!!
Thanks for shaing that info Maria, re what you found in Brooke’s letter from 2009
eve
February 26th, 2012 at 12:41 am
PS Maria
typo: I meant “plagues” – not “plages”
eve
February 26th, 2012 at 8:31 am
Eve
I know where you are coming from I too had to go through the whole world of factors that can move the market in one direction or the other.
and yes reading has a level of teaching but nothing works better then putting what you’ve learned into practice but sometimes we miss some minor details that can make a difference and this is why I want to tutor other investors and not giving them the whole thing otherwise they will never learn.
And I think people do benefit from being able to recognize good trades and I just point out what to look for to bailout. or put more money into the process.
great example was CJ telus trade where I gave here two supports and the first held great and having put this into work it was a warning that if failed bailout if works well you can simply ride the easy money train.
No need to comment anymore as we both have our styles of teaching or tutoring.
and People will decide how they go about it.
some are taking the easy way to trade put money and hope for the best if it doesn’t work will ask questions later, and there are some well they are doing their homework.
Here are two quotes people should take note of
Cramer : “Do your homework before investing.”
Brian Acker: “we now when to enter but we never have a exit strategy”
February 26th, 2012 at 11:05 am
tony,
LOL – when you say this:
and I just point out what to look for to bailout
and this:
great example was CJ telus trade where I gave here two supports and the first held great and having put this into work it was a warning that if failed bailout if works well you can simply ride the easy money train.
then THAT is “giving” out the info to the person RATHER THAN HAVING THEM FIGURE IT OUT ON THEIR OWN – OR, to reference your analogy: rather than “letting them fish on their own” – and THAT IS exactly what i do on here myself is that i give out the info – i say where there is support and resistance, i give out the top price or bottom price or where price will / “should” get to or sell off to and what people should be aware of IF price falls below that certain level! That is the SAME thing that you just wrote that you do! So, that is not “people doing their own research and doing their analysis” – that is “US” – you and i for 2 – “GIVING” them this info so that they will eventually learn to recognize this kind of stuff in the future for themselves! And that is why i wrote to Maria and to Ania that no, i don’t mind people asking questions at all as any answer that is given to them will be of benefit too to others in helping them learn!
When I talk often about the keltner channel this or that and then people on here who don’t even know what the keltner channel is, see my reference to it so often, then they either start looking up info on it OR have asked me about it – and i have this saved post from last year that i always post in answer to their question on the keltner – and that post will “teach” them all about how it works and how to use it to the best of its utility. Then, after i’ve posted this “info” for people, others will read that info too and then they’ll finally “get” it – they’ll get how it works and how they can use it in trading. That is far better in my opinion than me just saying to someone, “oh, go look it up for yourself – you’ll learn it that way” – and that kind of answer if i gave such an answer to someone, would not beneit anyone on here – AND worse, they may find information on it that is actually “misleading” and thus, they may end up thinking the keltner works in that misleading way (as it is OFTEN described on many sites online – misleading info i mean) and then not use it “properly” and thus, end up losing money with it! Whereas, the info and websites i have put into that keltner post are already verified by ME as giving “accurate” info on how the keltner works and how to use it – and there is nothing misleading that i’ve given out in that post on it – not from the websites i mean i’ve directed people to go to to get the “proper” info on the keltner!
So, if i have info that is beneficial for others AND that others WILL learn from to do better trades – like giving out suppoort/ resistance levels etc – just like YOU do too tony like what you just wrote that you do – then i feel better at giving out that info on here rather than telling people to learn it themselves – as in, “i’ll show you ONE time how to fish and now go do it yourself!” – yes i learned the hard way (i guess) (i say i guess because it really wasn’t all that hard really) as did you – but why should others HAVE to learn the hard way too when there are people and books around that can help them avoid the pitfalls and mistakes that have made it the “hard” way for others?? The answer is: they shouldn’t have to! Hence why i give the info on here that i do – and why YOU give the info that you do – and why mick/nv and Michael give the info they do (in analyses), and why Wayne gave the info he did to Ray-kitchener such that Ray now is using that info on oil and pivots that Wayne gave out AND is making money with that info – etc etc. There are many on here who’ve “GIVEN OUT” the info – rather than giving a “nibble” of info and then told people to go research it further for themselves to get the “full” info. That’s how most people learn – and that’s how “teachers” in a classroom teach too – they give out the info and then help students with questions they have and the teacher helps them with giving more info – until eventually, the student will “get” it!
So, if people on here continue asking questions of where this stock will go next in price OR what should occur in the markets going forward type of thing, then I will just give out that info – and i am sure YOU will too – and eventually, people will just “get” it themselves! That’s normally how teaching works – and that’s how “I” do it – and from your statements above that I copied in this post from yours above, that appears to be how YOU do it too! So, not sure why anyone is saying to go learn fishing for yourself because that just doesn’t make any logical sense to me at all!
Eve
February 26th, 2012 at 11:19 am
Ania,
if you’ve read any of these posts this weekend, please do NOT be afraid or too shy or feel reluctant to ask questions in the future on things you don’t understand and need clarification on – like with Don’s letter sometimes that you ask about – like “bottoming” for example – things like that! Just please feel free to ask anything you’d like to know about! I am sure anyone on here who does answer questions – like Michael, tony, mick/nv, myself, etc. – will be happy to answer your questions! Please just know that your questions (and others’ questions on here) will benefit many on here – so, please do not stop asking them! See what CJ wrote about that above?? Thanks CJ for telling Ania this – as I think it’s important for everyone on here to know that questions and answers given DO benefit others – not just the person who’s asking the question! So please do remember this Ania and don’t feel at all that you cannot ever ask a question on here or ask for a further clarification on here of something you’ve read on here – like short selling or bottoming, etc. – ok??
Eve
February 26th, 2012 at 11:22 am
Eve/Tony
Thanks for your explanations. Here is another way to look at TA, by having what I would consider the basics on a chart.
The rsi shows overbought/oversold, pivots can show simple support/resistance levels, the keltners show the range the stock is trading and the 5/20 gives you some possible entry/exit points (keltners can also be used for the same). The MACD hist and the cci combination can also give you possible early entry points.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p95010755460
February 26th, 2012 at 11:29 am
Looks like the pivots didn’t show in the chart above so here is the same without the keltners but with the pivot points.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p79585691883
The concept is to keep your chart uncluttered. the more indicators you have the more confusing to can get and the harder it becomes to make a buy/sell decision.
February 26th, 2012 at 11:31 am
Oh PS Ania,
Lin too on Friday – she wrote to you saying “don’t worry about it” – and I know Lin was meaning to not worry about asking questions on here – or what may be written on here about it – just continue doing what you’re doing is what Lin I’m sure was meaning in her post
I say this because Lin has said this to me too in the past – when others on here have put me down or tried to post negative things about me directly – Lin always writes to me saying, “don’t worry about it” – or “just forget about it” – or “don’t let them get to you” – Lin always writes such things to me when I’ve experienced certain things on here in the past – so, that’s why I say that this is what Lin was saying to you too in her post to you from Friday 
So, please just keep this stuff in mind Ania – ok?? and just continue doing what you’re doing 
Eve
February 26th, 2012 at 11:39 am
hi mick/nv,
Thanks for that post
As you know mick, I use the keltner for how you’re using it too – and I also put pivots too on my charts (occasionally) (when I’m wanting to see additional support or resistance levels to price supp/res OR moving avgs supp/ resis) – plus I use the mACD histo and RSI too – for how you’ve explained you use them too! I use the 4/9 strategy though rather than the 5/10 as I’ve found the 4/9 on a 5 min chart and 15 min chart works better than the 5/10 (I’ve tried both) – I find this too for the daily and weekly charts that the 4/9 works better than the 5/10 – BUT, that’s just an individual preference thing – just like I prefer using full stochastics to CCI – as I don’t see as much benefit in CCI (for me personally I’m meaning) as I do with stochastics. So, stoch is my preference 
BUT, neither of us is right or wrong in what we are using – just different approaches is all (and yes, I know you know that too mick – I’m just saying this so others reading these posts will understand where I’m coming from when I’m writing this 
).
Thank you mick
Eve
February 26th, 2012 at 11:45 am
PS mick/nv,
I should have told you that i also sometimes look at “your” Elder Pulse bars rather than the candlesticks I normally use
eve
February 26th, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Eve
Yes, you are right about indicators, it is a personal choice. I actually use the 5/20 although I do have the 10 on my charts as well sometimes. For people learning TA, i think it is important to keep a chart as clean as possible, too many indicators can give conflicting results, it makes it alot harder for some to make decisions and frustrating, as it appears that one is being kept out of the market or getting in too late, which I think is worse than not being in at all.
February 26th, 2012 at 1:15 pm
hi mick/nv,
yes, i agree with you! That’s why the charts I look at and send on here are always just very clean looking – with 3 indicators and 3 overlays. I have the 4 and 9 day MA, the keltner 2.5, the MACD, RSI, and full stochastics – and my price bars are candlesticks. That’s how my charts are always set up – and every now and then I’ll look instead at like the 50 day MA and the 200 day MA or will look at pivot points or will look at the elder pulse – but as a default, my chart set up is really simple – looks like this:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p74158422903
And that set up serves me well
Thanks mick for sharing
eve
February 26th, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Thank you CJ. I appreciate your support.
February 26th, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Hi Lin,
Thank you for the encouragement, I will keep studying until I get it.
Cheers, Ania
February 26th, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Thank you very much Eve. I do look at the glossary for meaning of the technical term used, but sometime, there no reference for example “bottoming”. Thank you for the encouragement and I will keep asking questions about chart interpretation, in meantime, I am studying to get the learning I need.
Have a great weekend, Ania
February 26th, 2012 at 1:34 pm
To all of the posters who have
commented on my # 195 post on Sat Feb 18:-
First Let me say that I certainly did not
mean to cause any grief to anyone, or to take
any credit away from all the efforts to help,
that are “above & beyond the call of duty”,
& made here every single day by so many
knowledgeable people.
After all – helping other traders is what
the blog is all about. Take that away,
and we have nothing.
February 26th, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Maria,
I wasn’t referring to you personally. If my questions bother you, don’t read my post.
I don’t have time to argue with you, you have the right to your opinions and I have the right to mine, Ania
February 26th, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Hi Rol Lew,
yes, your post seemed to have opened a can of worms LOL – the funny thing though is that I KNOW “PERSONALLY” that YOU also have helped on here in teaching people things they’ve asked about – I know “personally” because YOU EXPLAINED very fully (in detail) about how to play options! And I copied and saved the info you provided to me! So, when you wrote that post last week, I wasn’t really 100% sure where you were coming from when you wrote it simply due to knowing that you yourself have no issues with giving help and teachings to people on the board who ask you questions on things – myself as an example!
So, i didn’t “really” think you wwere saying that people should no longer ask questions – BUT, at the same time, that is how your post sounded to me – so, with knowing how I’ve received help from you myself on options, I was perplexed with your post – so, I’m glad you wrote today then what you did when you wrote:
After all – helping other traders is what
the blog is all about. Take that away,
and we have nothing.
So, that to me sounds more like the Rol lew on here I know
And I wholeheartedly with agree with you in writing what you did!!! So, thank you Rol for explaining further on this “hot” debated issue from this weekend 
Eve
February 26th, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Hi Ania,
I don’t think Maria is wanting any kind of a fight – Maria’s not really like that (from what I’ve experienced of Maria on the board) – Maria’s more about positivity kind of stuff – so, I think Maria was just looking for a better understanding of what you had written – rather than looking for any kind of upset or turmoil or negative feelings or a fight
And if I’m wrong on that, then Maria can feel free to correct me on it 
Good to know you’ll keep asking the questions though Ania
Have a great Sunday afternoon and evening
Eve
February 26th, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Hi Eve,
Thank you for clarifying what Maria wrote. I joined few months ago and I don’t know people very well on this board. I am very grateful for your kindness and explanations about the market and the Q&A
You are a peace maker Eve. You are right in saying everyone learns differently and I am trying my best to be consistent in learning. I am better in other subject than trading.
Have yourself a great Sunday, Ania
February 26th, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Tony and Eve, As with all teachers you two have different styles and as with all students some learn better with one than another. So to all of those people who post positive things on this site there will always be someone who can benefit. Thanks to you all and keep up the good work.
February 26th, 2012 at 8:09 pm
Good evening all,
I have been reading todays comment and for one feel great to be a part of this board. A place where I read Q&A’s and learn from most everything I read. Like Tony said earlier, Teck Talk is here now but will it be here in the future? One has to learn to for him/herself. I say this from the bottom of my heart, people on here, teaching and learning help out. Keep up the good work everyone, I just wish there were a way I could repay you all for this experience
.
February 26th, 2012 at 10:36 pm
ERF
I baled on this stock on Friday. I do not like a company borrowing to pay dividends. Looks like it cannot sustain itself. But, in all I still made a small profit. I had a stop loss at 24.00 and bought at 23.38 and 23.85. It may take a nosedive here, or may climb with the overall oil stocks. I just felt it was a gamble to keep for dividends when there are other safer stocks out there. If I hold this stock for a 9% dividend at if falls 9% then it would have been a wash. Just do not feel like taking a bath on one particular stock even though I have a lot of different stocks to cushion the fall.