ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Monday February 27th 2012
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 6 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to news over the weekend that the G20 finance ministers do not support an additional loan of $500 billion to Europe through the International Monetary Fund.
Fourth quarter earnings continue to pour in. Companies reporting overnight included HSBC and Lowe’s
Viacom slipped $0.25 to $47.20 after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral. Target is $24.
Walt Disney added 40.40 to $41.71 after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from Neutral to Conviction Buy. Target was raised from $44 to $51.
Procter & Gamble added $0.06 to $66.76 after BMO Capital upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform. Target was raised from $0.68 to $0.78.
West Fraser Timber is expected to open higher after BMO Capital upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform
IAMGold is expected to open lower after Macquarrie downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral.
Technical Watch
Lowes Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) – $27.63 added 1.7% after the company reported higher than consensus fourth quarter earnings. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $25.93. Last week the stock touched a five year high. The stock trades above its 200 day moving average and recently bounced from near its 50 day moving average at $26.35. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since last September. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of May. However, short term momentum indicators recently rolled over from overbought levels. Preferred strategy is to accumulate on weakness closer to its 50 day moving average at $26.35.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/clip_image00118.png "clip_image001[1]")
Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (NYSE:LOW) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image250.png "clip_image002[1]")
Walt Disney Co. (NYSE:DIS) – $41.71 added 0.8% after Goldman Sachs updated the stock from Neutral to Conviction Buy. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $38.00. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since mid-September. Seasonal influences are neutral between now and the end of March, but turn positive thereafter. However, short term momentum indicators currently are overbought and have rolled over. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to its 50 day moving average at $39.07.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/clip_image00319.png "clip_image003[1]")
The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image128.png "clip_image004[1]")
Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG) – $66.76 added 0.1% after BMO Capital upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock broke above long term resistance at $66.92 on Friday to reach an all-time high. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned positive at the beginning of February. Seasonal influences turn positive at the beginning of March. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image005[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/clip_image00516.png "clip_image005[1]")
The Procter & Gamble Company (NYSE:PG) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image006[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image326.png "clip_image006[1]")
Mark Leibovit’s Daily Gold Comment
More on Mark’s service is available at
http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp
GOLD – ACTION ALERT – BUY
Spot gold touched 1789.10 Thursday and retraced to 1769.20 on Friday. We should have seen 1764.00. Downside risk is back to the 1730s should we see another ‘smackdown’. Next upside objective 1840. Spot silver continued high Friday trading at 35.84. I would like to see a pullback to 34.60. Still targeting to 37 and then the low 40s. Copper pushed higher touching 3.8823. It’s coming off 3.702. That was the recent low following the February 8 high at 3.9850. I’m looking for 4.48+. Both Palladium and Platinum corrected Friday following new recovery highs Thursday at 729 and 1740, respectively.
Economic News This Week
![clip_image002[14]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/clip_image002141.png "clip_image002[14]")
Earnings Reports This Week
![clip_image002[12]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/02/clip_image002121.png "clip_image002[12]")
Equity Trends
The S&P 500 Index gained 4.51 points (0.33%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. The Index remains well above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking. Short term momentum indicators are not useful until the short term trend line is broken.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 50 day moving average slipped last week from 86.60% to 83.20%. Percent is intermediate overbought and peaked three weeks ago.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week from 82.40% to 83.00%. Percent is intermediate overbought.
The ratio of S&P 500 stocks in an up uptrend to a downtrend (i.e. the Up/Down ratio) increased last week from 5.64 to (376/66=) 5.78. The ratio remains intermediate overbought.
Bullish Percent Index for S&P 500 stocks increased last week from 84.6% to 85.40% and remained above its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
The Up/Down ratio of TSX Composite stocks increased last week from 1.88 to (156/70=) 2.23. The ratio remains intermediate overbought.
Bullish Percent Index for TSX Composite stocks increased last week from 61.26% to 65.22% and remained above its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
The TSX Composite Index gained 267.47 points (2.15%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. The Index broke above resistance at 12,623.98. Support is at 11,420.78. The Index remains above its 50 day moving average and broke above its 200 day moving average last week. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is turning positive. ‘Tis the season for the TSX to outperform the S&P 500 Index!
Percent of TSX Composite stocks trading above their 50 day moving average increased last week from 60.08% to 68.38%. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
Percent of S&P 500 stocks trading above their 200 day moving average increased last week from 53.75% to 58.50%. Percent remains intermediate overbought.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average added 33.08 points (0.26%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. The Average trades well above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking. However, short term momentum indicators are not meaningful until short term uptrend in the Average is broken. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Bullish Percent Index for Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged last week at 97.67% and is tied with its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
Bullish Percent Index for NASDAQ Composite stocks increased last week from 63.64% to 64.15% and remained above its 15 day moving average. The Index remains intermediate overbought.
The NASDAQ Composite Index added 11.97 points (0.41%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at 2,441.48. The Index trades well above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of peaking. Significant momentum sell signals will occur when short term uptrend of the Index is broken. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
The Russell 2000 Index slipped 1.76 points (0.21%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at 666.16 and resistance is forming at 833.02. The Index trades well above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and have rolled over. Their significance was confirmed last week when short term trend by the Index was broken. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive, but showing early signs of turning negative.
The Dow Jones Transportation Average fell 100.38 points (1.92%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at 4,531.79 and resistance has formed at 5,384.15. The Average has broken below a rising wedge pattern. The Average trades above its 200 day moving average, but fell below its 50 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators continue to trend down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
The Australia All Ordinaries Composite Index added 115.74 points (2.71%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at 3,905.20 and resistance is at 4,472.20. The Index recently bounced from its 50 day moving average and broke above its 200 day moving average last week. Short term momentum indicators continue to trend higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
The Nikkei Average gained 263.21 points (2.80%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. The Average trades well above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. ‘Tis the season for the Nikkei Average to move higher!
The Shanghai Composite Index gained 66.45 points (2.82%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at 2,132.63 and resistance is at 2,536.78. The Index trades above its 50 day moving average, but remains below its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. ‘Tis the season for the Index to move higher!
The London FT Index added 30.06 points (0.51%), the Frankfurt DAX improved 16.40 points (0.24%) and the Paris CAC Index gained 27.41 points (0.80%) last week.
The Athens Index plunged 74.57 points (9.05%) last week. Investors are skeptical that the agreement on sovereign debt will last. Resistance is forming at 843.64. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has returned negative.
Currencies
The U.S. Dollar fell 1.11 last week. Short term support at 78.36 was broken on Friday. Next support is at 74.72. Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
The Euro gained 3.02 last week. Intermediate trend is down. Short term momentum indicators have returned to overbought levels and continue to trend higher.
The Canadian Dollar slipped 0.26 cents U.S. last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at 95.03 and resistance is at 101.10. Resistance was found near its 200 day moving average at 100.32. Short term momentum indicators are trending down from overbought levels.
The Japanese Yen plunged another 2.40 points last week after Japan launched another Quantitative Easing program. Intermediate trend is down. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but continue to trend down.
Commodities
The CRB Index gained 8.52 points (2.68%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from down to up on Friday when the Index broke above resistance at 324.99 and above its 200 day moving average at 323.89. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher.
Gasoline jumped $0.11 per gallon (3.44%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Next resistance is at $3.415 set last May. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. ‘Tis the season for gasoline prices to move higher!
Crude Oil gained another $5.25 U.S. per barrel (5.04%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Next resistance is at $114.83 set last May. ‘Tis the season for crude oil prices to move higher!
Natural Gas added $0.02 per MBtu (0.75%) last week. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at $2.23 and resistance is at $2.84. Short term momentum indicators are recovering from oversold levels. Seasonal influences are mildly positive.
The TSX Energy Index added 9.90 points (3.48%) last week. It broke above resistance at 285.86 to complete a reverse head and shoulders pattern. The Index remains above its 50 day moving average and broke above its 200 day moving average. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Seasonal influences recently turned positive.
Ditto for the Oil Services Index! The Index gained 5.85 points (2.30%) last week.
Gold gained $49.50 per ounce (2.87%) last week. Support is at 1,523.90. Resistance at $1,804.40 is being tested. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains slightly positive.
The Gold Bug Index added 21.14 points (4.06%) last week. Support is at 477.93 and resistance is 554.92. Strength relative to gold remains negative.
The TSX Gold Index gained 16.47 points (4.46%) last week. Support is at 346.24 and resistance is at 395.64. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to gold remains negative.
Silver gained $2.14 per ounce (6.43%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from down to up on Friday after resistance at $35.70 was broken. Silver also broke above its 200 day moving average on Friday. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Strength relative to gold remains slightly positive. ‘Tis the season for silver to move higher!
Platinum gained another $87.50 per ounce (5.37%) last week. Intermediate trend changed from down to neutral on a break above resistance at $1,676.40 per ounce. Platinum also broke above its 200 day moving averages last week. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Strength relative to gold remains positive. ‘Tis the season for platinum to move higher!
Copper added $0.14 per lb. (3.76%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $3.20 and resistance is at $3.99. Copper moved above its 200 day moving average last week. Short term momentum indicators have started to trend higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive. Seasonal influences are positive.
The TSX Metals and Mining Index gained 48.66 points (4.19%) last week. Intermediate trend is up. A break above 1,258.87 will complete a reverse head and shoulders pattern. The Index bounced from near its 50 day moving average and broke above its 200 day moving average last week. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. ‘Tis the season to move higher!
Lumber added $8.58 (3.15%) last week. Short term momentum indicators are overbought. Seasonal influences normally peak at this time of year.
The grain ETN slipped $0.03 (0.07%) last week. Resistance at $46.80 is proving to be formidable. Short term momentum indicators remain overbought.
The Agriculture ETF added 0.11 last week (2.07%). It also is struggling to break resistance.
Interest Rates
The yield on 10 year Treasuries slipped 3.3 basis points last week. Yield remains in a seven month range between 1.696% and 2.407%. Short term momentum indicators remain neutral. “Operation Twist” remains the biggest influence.
Price of the long term Treasury ETF added $0.92 last week (0.79%).
Other Factors
The VIX Index slipped 0.47 (2.64%) last week. Once again, it is testing long term support near 15.00.
Macro events will continue to influence equity markets this week. The G20 Meeting of Finance Ministers was held in Mexico over the weekend. The focus is on European sovereign debt. Germany’s Parliament discusses the Greek bailout program on Monday. The European consumer confidence and industrial confidence indices are released on Tuesday. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke delivers the Semi-annual Monetary Report on Wednesday. China and Euro announce their February Purchasing Managers indices on Thursday. Europe’s unemployment rate is released on Thursday. Russia’s Presidential election is held next Sunday.
Economic news this week is expected to be mixed to slightly negative, breaking a string of economic reports that have encouraged investor confidence.
The earnings focus this week is on Canada’s banks. Fourth quarter reports from the U.S. are winding down. A total of 463 S&P 500 companies have reported to date. 59% have exceeded consensus versus an average of 62% in recent quarters. A total of 104 S&P 500 companies have offered first quarter guidance with 31 companies guiding higher and 64 companies guiding lower.
Short and intermediate technical indicators remain overbought in a wide variety of equity markets and sectors. Fewer sectors are leading the advance.
Cash on the sidelines remains substantial and is unlikely to trend lower until equity markets determine who the next U.S. President will be.
Seasonal influences on equity markets turn positive in March. They tend to strength as the month progresses.
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Household Appliances Industry Seasonal Chart
Tom Rogers’ Weekly Elliott Wave Blog
http://www.tomrogers.net/signpost.htm
FP Trading Desk Headlines
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Canadian stocks ready to play catch up”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/02/24/canadian-stocks-ready-to-play-catch-up/
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC February 24th 2012
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: DIS, LOW, PG
February 27th, 2012 at 8:48 am
John & Hubert of Trade the Markets
…. NFLX short? –
…. Plus Two Day sales pitch forex & futures
– Wed Feb 29 – Thur Mar 1
http://www.tradethemarkets.com/public/NFLX-New-Short-Signal.cfm?utm_source=hubertnewsletterfree&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=image
February 27th, 2012 at 9:27 am
http://theuptrend.com/QQQ-NASDAQ-100-ETF-Newsletter-20120227.htm
The Nasdaq – note his discussions and charts on use of leveraged ETFs.
February 27th, 2012 at 9:30 am
Tawny
recall friday when you asked me where I find these odd companies that move so drastically.
I don’t recall the exact date I saw I saw it posted on cnbc’s ticker but I recall vivus(vvus) was positive on that day I saw it scroll on cnbc and look at where its trading now it simply doubled in 4 days.
February 27th, 2012 at 9:43 am
tony
First, thanks for your post on the weekend on finding the “10″ screening etc. I will have more questions later… have been fightig off a virus and well, doing just what I have to do.
What site are you referring to re cnbc’s ticker, could you post a link, please. Also what was it about Vivus that made you buy, please?
February 27th, 2012 at 9:54 am
I never bought and was not in my list of companies to watch for.
Why not put in my watchlist because I already had 10 companies to look for
and the macd was not pushing hard enough for me and W%R was playing the yoyo.
had it bought it in october this would have tripled my profits.
I saw it listed on the ticker while watching the cnbc channel.
February 27th, 2012 at 10:15 am
Anyone : re the RRSP contribution days coming to an end -
Do the Canadian markets always go up end Feb, first days of March?
What about the US markets?
Any way of looking into this?
February 27th, 2012 at 10:18 am
From equityclock’s report today:
Coming into the month-end of February, tendencies for losses are the norm. Losses for the last two days of February average 0.62% and 0.13%, with only 40% of sessions ending with gains, well below that of an average day. Going into the first two days of next month, March 1st and 2nd, averages show a gain of 0.29% and a loss of 0.42%, respectively, with 45% of the sessions ending positive, again below average. Positive tendencies that are typical for month-end as fund-inflows drive markets higher are notably absent this month. As well, the always anticipated Monthly Employment report, which typically acts as a catalyst for fund flows around the beginning of the month, is not scheduled to appear until March 9th. It will be up to the bulls own strength to power this market higher as fundamental and seasonal factors may not be there to influence equities higher over the month-end.
February 27th, 2012 at 10:26 am
Tawny,
Occasionally, look at finviz top gainers – Performance tab – to
review stocks that are moving – sort by weekly gain
VVUS just happens to top that list today
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=140&s=ta_topgainers&o=-perf1w
Right now top gainers = 30, top losers = 37, probably indicating
a neutral to slightly weaker market today.
new highs = 39 new lows = 13, probably indicating a robustly
STRONGER market today.
So take your choice. VXX opened higher on the Greek stuff, but is now
falling like a rock. So, Can you really trust those market manipulators?
I am long azo, short vxx, short lcc, short ual (really a long on oil trends),
short ree, short stp, short type – these are working for now.
Took an upper-cut on fcx long, a left jab on gdx long,
a poke in the eye on aem short, and a kick in the groin on bal short.
Just cutting my losers free.
February 27th, 2012 at 10:40 am
Jimmy
Thanks for that quick reply – I keep forgetting to check out Equity Clock information.
Must admit it took me a long time to digest it – my mind is so fuzzy fighting this virus – I will “likely” have to take my chances here and go to bed… if so, whatever happens, happens.
February 27th, 2012 at 10:44 am
Rol – Lew
Thank you for #8. Picked up your post on Finviz over the weekend and think it is a terrific site and I reg’d for it. However, please look at para 2 of my post #9.
Can’t think – off to bed.
February 27th, 2012 at 10:48 am
Be better soon Tawney!
February 27th, 2012 at 10:54 am
No help for a “virus”, Tawny
- lots of rest and lots of orange juice
February 27th, 2012 at 11:05 am
Hi Tony,
Re: Post #5
When you have a watch list of 10 companies, do you look at charts on daily basis, and what web site do you use to follow your watch list on daily basis.
Thank you, Ania
February 27th, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Ania
yes I look at them everyday not every 5min but three times (the open then 10-10.15 am and after the close) is more then enough.
First I have other things to do during the day to be looking at its every move the stock market everyday is like famous tortoise vs hare big race if its a tortoise well you will die of boredom and if its a hare well you will will be wanting to be on everyside of the trade. in both situation at the end of the day your hair as black as it can be will be all white.
lets start after the close
After the close what ever happened during the day you take out all emotions of saying I did wrong and can see where do you want to put your trade on as an indicator could demonstrate signs its time to trade in or out.
The Open
now what do I look for at the open just to see if I am not getting my head handed to me so with my 6% did something happen in sentiment did it drop by 10% at the open I won’t ask questions and will simply sell. If you play the resource stock anything can be disastrous (natural disaster that hits a mine, drilling results below what was expected)
10.15AM
At 10 AM this is when the Hedge funds in north america had their coffees and can proceed with buying or selling. so any position I have on, the following 15min they will show you their true colors so this is where I want to be either in or out of it.
example, I bought bnp.to last week and currently have a 6% stop loss on it if this morning. had it opened way below my 6% loss I would have triggered it myself it barely bulged 10.0 to 10.15 while I took my coffee nothing happened so everything stays the same for another day or it gets triggered by fat fingers.
February 27th, 2012 at 12:35 pm
GFS.to
I can’t remember who i mentioned this one too. It has moved strongly again today, around 8%. Still has more upside till first resistance but anyone interested in buying may want to wait for a lower entry at this point.
February 27th, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Please any body comment on these two stocks
-SMRT- BUY 5 MAR- SELL 2 APR
-PIR – BUY 14 MAR -SELL 16 APR
-SEASONALITY AS PER BEST CHOICE SOFTWARE
Thanks
February 27th, 2012 at 12:50 pm
ron
gfs Its not that I didn’t like it. since november it hit 150MA and turned south
now is this just a fluke or can the 150MA hold if it does then go gfs go.
February 27th, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Tony
What would be a good entry point for FTS.TO, KEY.TO
Thanks
February 27th, 2012 at 12:56 pm
nirmal
I believe you are talking about the options
I don’t see your smrt trade
Pir love what the indicators are saying.
February 27th, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Ric
fts chart right now holding on the 200MA MACD moving north, and W%R
have a 6% stop and it should do ok
Key they issued new shares recently why have no clue price I think it ws at 43$ MACD started moving north but if I’d buy this one I wouldn’t have a stop loss at 6% but 3%
I would like to see how the HFs would react to a 41.90 bid sometimes you have to lure the fishes in before comiting and this is one trick I like to do see how as the biggest will power me or them.
February 27th, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Tony,
GFS.to is breaking the downtrend but I agree that waiting to see if it holds the 150 ma (which is roughly the same level as where the down trend line is) would be a good idea.
TLM.to is doing the same. It broke the downtrend line and I sold some near the R3 pivot and now I’m seeing it pull back to retest the 150ma.
February 27th, 2012 at 1:15 pm
BBD.B.to
info for those interested it will stop in its tracks in the 5.50 range.
latest from the option pits.
February 27th, 2012 at 1:19 pm
ron/ab
what helped was in tlm was the spike in volume in jan and feb with volume in the 12M, that was people getting intersted in it and then you had to break above 100MA resistance in early January.
February 27th, 2012 at 1:20 pm
Ron
about support either be 150MA or 100MA 1$ below here
February 27th, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Ron
tlm support is either the 150MA or 100MA 1$ below there
February 27th, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Good morning/afternoon all! Happy Monday.. kind of a dull day today. I haven’t done any trading yet because I slept in. Nothing “jumps” at me now.
February 27th, 2012 at 1:56 pm
everything I have looked at seems to be very low volume
February 27th, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Ania, regarding intraday shorting.. Take a look at today’s movement of CP on NYSE. It did this “double top” today again (almost triple).. I shorted as it failed to hold the high of the day. I shorted 1,000 shares and already have around $200 profit.. Now I’ll put a stop loss (“buy on stop” order) to protect some profit since I have to go into a meeting shortly.
February 27th, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Paul, yes, I agree…low volume.. markets are stalling.
February 27th, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Hi Tony,
Thank you for the information. I am reading the “Dow Theory” and find it fascinating to look at the markets from that perspective.
Have yourself a successful trading day, Ania
February 27th, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Slava
Have you thought of shorting AAPL, that could add a bit of excitement to your day.
February 27th, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Hi Slava,
Good for you in making the $200. Thank you for giving me an example of intraday shorting re: CP chart.
Wishing a great day, Ania
February 27th, 2012 at 2:24 pm
mick/inv, no interest in shorting Apple since it’s an amazing co. and reasonably priced
February 27th, 2012 at 2:40 pm
Tony,
“Price spikes” when price spikes are red versus green does that mean it will turn down?
February 27th, 2012 at 2:43 pm
#34
I meant volume
February 27th, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Hi Eve,
Re: Friday’s post #193
Thanks for sharing some of your trading experiences. I thought maybe I was the only one who would buy a stock and then find it goes down almost immediately.
Do you have a preference for buying a stock at support levels after a major pullback and still in an uptrend or one that continues in an uptrend bouncing along the 4sma or do you consider all as equal opportunities to profit from.
Thanks for your input.
February 27th, 2012 at 3:03 pm
mick/inv, I just picked up the latest Samsung Galaxy Nexus yesterday afternoon and I think it’s going to give Iphone some very serious competition. It’s one great mobile phone!
February 27th, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Slava
Congrats on the phone. I have an Iphone and am very happy with it (along with my Ipad). I assume it has the android op system? Did you get a plan with telus, that will make CJ happy (me too).
February 27th, 2012 at 3:10 pm
Slava
Picked up some CYS today on the S&P, not a bad looking chart and pays a nice yield (14.7%).
February 27th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Hmm.. well, I shorted bac at $7.93 and so far it’s not working out too well. Probably should cover before the close.
mick, thanks for CYS.. I’ll take a look.
February 27th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Hi Slava and mick/nv. I’m a proud owner of a Palm (yes, Palm) Treo that is close to six years old! Most can’t believe that it still works. Maybe I should buy shares in the company…lol.
February 27th, 2012 at 3:28 pm
mick, I spent 1 hour at fido and I was comparing iphone 4s side by side to Galaxy Nexus.. and the winner was clear… Galaxy! It’s an android phone, screen size is 60% larger than iphone.
February 27th, 2012 at 3:32 pm
mick and Michael, what do you make of Bank of America? Day low $7.67, day high $8.04.. I suppose the stock has been consolidating in this range for a few days and now wants to go higher?
February 27th, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Slava
Bigger isn’t always better, but i am sure you will be very happy with it. As to BAC, it is in a nice uptrend although it does look like it is flattening out. very high beta stock, looks like it would be a good trading stock.
February 27th, 2012 at 3:48 pm
“Bigger isn’t always better”.. well, it’s a matter of opinion..but I agree that the functionality of an object is the decisive factor…lol
February 27th, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Hi Slava. BAC is back…but it seems to have this habit of doing the opposite when that happens. MACD doesn’t look encouraging, but not sure what the best technicals to look at for this one; and who knows if you can trust the “fundamentals”.
February 27th, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Slava,
One of my sons who is very tech savvy got that same phone for Christmas and I tried it on. First class! I was also very impressed.
February 27th, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Hi Don F.,
No, you’re not the only one at all LOL. And when I bought those stocks, they were on a pullback – the problem though in hindsight for a few of them (like TCK.B, COG, and CLF), was that I bought them only as a day trade – not as a hold! AND, I bought them on a pullback on the day too! Now, each of them did go up – but by less than what I wanted to sell them for in profit (they went up by 10 to 40 cents for each – COG over the course of 3 days it took for it to gain 40 cents) and then came down after those small gains in each. So, I decided to hold just til the next day to get rid of them at break even or a small profit – couldn’t do it with TCK.B as it opened up $1 lower and CLF opened up $2 lower than the day’s before closing price. So, I sold CLF that day and sold TCK.B after giving it a month to recover – due to it being the seasonal period for copper AND for stocks (March 2011 to April 2011) – yet, it never recovered to my buy in price and sold it at $47 – meanwhile, it hasn’t even gotten back up to my sell price since last May – let alone my DAY TRADE buy in price of $55.00 area! So, I’m happy I sold it!
I’ve had to change and tweak my strategy over the last few years with things I’ve observed and things I’ve learned about the markets AND individual stocks. So now, I look at stocks that have miseed earnings and try to buy them on the sell off at a support level (IF I don’t miss the low point support price – which, I often do
) – but that’s the strategy anyway (stocks recently that would qualify would be RVBD, SNDK and GMCR from several months ago and FOSL from several months ago – in the summer – and LULU from several months ago when it last reported in December). Plus, I look at stocks that have beat earnings AND have jumped up in price by a great deal – i’ll then put them on my stock watch list and try to buy them on a pullback at a support point of the 4 day MA OR the 9 day MA OR the mid keltner – stocks that qualify for this would be RAX, KORS, LNKD, FOSL, V, and COG.
I have noticed that when stocks beat OR miss earnings, that they will then trade within a range of price of several dollars or more (depending on the price of the stock) – and they’ll trade this way “usually” until their next reporting date. So, for example, RVBD was at over $30 when it reported and missed (about a month ago) – it went down to $22.93 the next day and then bounced up that day to $24 and then ended the day at $23.50 – it stayed at $23.50 for a few days and then took off and went to $29 within a week – BUT, it will not get back up above $30 UNTIL its next earnings and ONLY IF it beats at that point. So, it will be stuck in a price range between now and then of between $23 area to $29 area (its at just over $28 today). Now KORS for example, it beat earnings (about 2.5 weeks ago) and went from $33 before reporting to $42 AFTER reporting – and then went to $44.97 the next day too – and then started coming down a bit each day BUT would go up from around $41.50 area OR from $40.50 area OR from $39.50 area – and would gain between $1 to $2.50 each day! Today, it went to $41.57 (closed on Fri at $41.51) and then went up to $44.02 as a high today and is now at $43.63 – BUT its 4 day MA is at $41.76 – so, it will come down a bit tomorrow to try to get to its 4 day and then will most likely go up again from there. BUT, it should stay in a price range of between the mid keltner and keltner top between now and its next earnings date – so, in an uptrend.
Another strategy I use is to look at stocks in a definite uptrend and buy them on a pullback at either the 9 day MA OR the mid keltner – an example is LULU – LULU hit a high of over $67 a week or so ago AND was VERY overbought on RSI, stoch, and the keltner – and it started coming down from there. It came down to $63.50 area about 4 days ago which happened to be the mid keltner price point too – and it was no longer overbought on ANY measure and thus, had room to run up again in price – and it did! It bounced off the mid jeltner and in the last 4 days has gone up each day since – and today was over $67 again. So, that’s another strategy too!
Plus, I’m using the 4/9/18 day system on a 5 min chart and have the bollinger band on that chart too plus RSI, Williams %R, and Stochastics to determine overbought/ oversold on the DAY for intraday bounces and sell offs. I use this combined with the DAILY chart and look at the 4 day, 9 day, and keltner to see if a stock will sell off to get back to its 4 day MA OR go higher to get UP to its 4 day MA type of thing. OR if stock is overbought, then I will wait to see if stock comes down to its 9 day OR mid keltner before it moves higher again.
These strategies will work very well in an OVERALL MARKET that is in an UPTREND – as the markets are in right now. Come May, for sell in May type of thing, that is when the markets may sell off by a good amount and “perahaps” become choppy in the summer as they were last year – don’t know really but it is a possibility. So, these strategies will be tweaked again if that occurs as stocks on sell offs will sell off and trade in lower price ranges at that point than what they are doing today – they will sell off to either their break out points OR to a moving day avg support level OR to a strong price support level.
Anyway Don F., hope I’ve answered your question
If not, please feel free to ask anything further 
eve
February 27th, 2012 at 4:18 pm
Anyone,
1. For swing trading (a few days to a few weeks) how long a chart should I be looking at to draw in my trend lines? What time incraments should I be using: Eg. daily, hourly, 15 min. or 5 min. candles?
2. For seasonal trading (one to three months) what length of chart should I be looking at for drawing trend lines (6 months or one yr.)and what time incraments (daily or weekly)?
February 27th, 2012 at 4:19 pm
Hi Eve,
You did. Thanks for your detailed explanation.
February 27th, 2012 at 4:26 pm
mick, Michael – thanks.
February 27th, 2012 at 4:49 pm
Eve
Waiting to see you were on the blog today. WAnt to thank you for your post to me on Friday (? I think it was Friday). I am dealing with a virus bug, hard to think, spending lots of time sleeping today. When I am this unwell and can’t focus or think, I have learned it is best to do nothing. Seems to me like the markets are not really doing much either — going sideways.
Financials are doing well which is surprising. What happened to the 3 U.S. banks that were to get a downgrade from Moody’s? Do you think SLF is oversold..??. I am caught holding some FAZ …
February 27th, 2012 at 4:49 pm
dd Want to thank you for #111 posted on Fridays blog; I finally managed to get in to ADVFN.com (my e-mail was in the “junk” file!) That is impressive, is there a way to remove all the extraneous symbols so there is just the stocks you want and a few index showing? I really like this and know it is going to be very useful – THANKS SO MUCH!
February 27th, 2012 at 5:06 pm
CJ
NP, you can also delete and add the stocks you want to view.
I am glad you liked it.
February 27th, 2012 at 5:14 pm
Tony———Re your input re bomber of 5.50 I checked mx site and was wondering how to come to that assumption thanks for any help.
February 27th, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Hi BJ,
For swing trading: look at the last 6 months on the DAILY chart – then look at the performance on the WEEKLY chart as you may see a stock that gets say to the keltner TOP on the DAILY chart BUT has only gotten to the MID keltner on the WEEKLY chart – thus, this suggests that for the near term (in weeks to a month or 2), the stock is in an uptrend (BUT, most likely NOT a strong uptrend because if it WERE a strong one, then the stock would be above the mid keltner on BOTH the DAILY and the WEEKLY charts)- BUT, on a LONGER term (like over 3 months), the stock is STILL in a downtrend. you should look for stock patterns too on both the daily and weekly charts to see where a stock “may” be going to in price.
Take TCK.B.TO for example: – on the DAILY chart, it went from BOTTOM keltner in October 2011 to top of keltner in Jan 2012 at just over $44. YET, if you look at the WEEKLY chart, TCK.B has BARELY been “ABLE” to get OVER the mid keltner area – this suggests that TCK.B for the longer term is still in a DOWNTREND BUT for the NEAR term (say, until May when copper seasonality ends and stock seasonality ends), TCK.B could be in a mini uptrend. You can see on the WEEKLY chart that TCK.B has been in a downtrend since last January “arguably” when it hit its high price of over $64 AND that took it to overbought zone AND top of keltner channel – BUT that since it went BELOW the MID KELTNER in Feb 2011, that it has only gone between the mid keltner and then down to the bottom keltner – then back up to the mid and then back down to the bottom keltner and repeat – so, for a year now, it’s been in a downtrend for a year. Right now, TCK.B is “essentially” right at the mid keltner on the weekly chart – and it made it to just slightly above the mid keltner to $44 in January but then came down again – this suggests that TCK.B is STILL in its downtrend. It will not be in an uptrend UNTIL it can get to the keltner TOP on the WEEKLY chart. Here’s the weekly chart of it:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TCK/B.TO&p=W&b=7&g=0&id=p81889154706
Then look if you can see any patterns forming on either the daily or the weekly chaets OR both! with TCK.B, you can see a “bear flag” forming on the DAILY chart – this could turn into a double bottom pattern too (as in, a “W” pattern which is a bull pattern) IF the bear flag completes itself – it will complete if the stock goes back down to $37/ $38 level and bounce up from there! YET, on the WEEKLY chart, it looks like a bull flag forming which is “bullish” – BUT, which do you trust will form?? well, since we look at the DAILY chart for the next few weeks to 1 to 2 months, then look for the bear flag to complete for the near term – and if that occurs, then the weekly chart’s bull flag will be negated as the stock price will be going down from here (IF the bear flag completes itself on the daily chart).
So, that is how you would judge a stock for a SWING trade of weeks to several months. Now for using the 5 min, 15 min., and hourly charts – that is used for DAY trading a stock! So, it doesn’t matter if the stock is in a downtrend or uptrend on the DAILY or WEEKLY chart as what you are looking for is simply a DAY trade on the 5 min., 15. min charts type of thing. And a stock can go up when in a downtrend AND it can go down when in an uptrend. So, what you want to look at is first look at the DAILY chart at the 4 day MA and see where the stock’s price is relative to its 4 day on the DAILY chart. Then look to see over the last several months, how many days a stock can be AWAY from its 4 day MA without touching it! Most stocks can be away from it for a full day completely but then will need to at least touch it the next day after that. So, once you see a stock go back to its 4 day MA on the DAILY chart at just after the market has opened at 930 am EST., then look to see if the stock is now moving HIGHER on the DAY or going still lower. And once it gets away from its 4 day MA on the 5 minute chart, the stock will bounce up to get back to its 4 day MA on the 5 min chart – and it will most likely head higher too to get up to its 9 day MA or 18 day MA on the 5 min chart I’m meaning OR will head higher than these too to go to the top of the bollinger band – and if it gets too far away from its 4 day on the 5 min chart, it WILL snap back to it and then will perhaps now go down to its 9 day on the 5 min chart to see if it can find support there OR to the 18 day on the 5 min chart to see if it finds support there OR it will move to the bottom of the bollinger and then bounce up from there. with a stock that is UP on a day, it will usually only pull back to the 9 day and 18 day MA on the 5 min chart on pullbacks INTRADAY – and with a stock trading in the red on a day, it will usually trade intraday between the bottom bollinger band and to the 18 day MA on the 5 min chart which will be ABOVE the lower bollinger. It will trade intraday just as a stock trades on the DAILY chart in relation to being in an uptrend on the WEEK/MONTH or a downtrend on the WEEK/ MONTH type of thing. So, once you know a stock’s direction on the day – as in, what is it doing today?? is it UP today?? or is it down today?? then you can trade it on the 5 min chart in accordance with the 4/9/18 and bollinger bands as support/ resistance lebels INTRADAY!! and at that point, you won’t even need to be looking at the DAILY chart once you’ve established what the stock is going to do on the day that day – hope that makes sense??
For question 2:
Draw trend lines on both the daily and weekly charts of the last 6 months – you will notice how the stock behaves in relation to either channel you draw (on both the daily chart and weekly chart) that you see the stock has “respected” in the last several months – if that makes sense?? – and then just trade the channel price that it is currently respecting and has respected in the last several months – see first though IF the bottom price in the channekl is respected – the stock should bounce up off that lower trendline of the channel – if it breaks through it to the downside by a significant amount, then you know that trend channel may now be no longer useful as being respected by the stock. If it only goes through the bottom trendline by just a small amount BUT then bounces up from there to get back INTO the trending channel, then you know chances are good that the trendline channel is still being respected by the stock and the stock is now safe to buy until it goes back up again to the top trendline resistance area of its channel you’ve drawn in. Hope that makes sense too BJ
Ok, so, “hopefully” I’ve answered your questions that you were looking for
If not, then just let me know 
Eve
February 27th, 2012 at 5:28 pm
dd#54 I found where to ADD but have not found the Delete button yet LOL!
February 27th, 2012 at 5:46 pm
Hi Eve,
When you have time, could please give me an entry point for BHI and TA. I saved the oil chart you posted for me over the weekend.
Thank you for your post to BJ, it’s full of very valuable information, and
thank you BJ for asking the question.
Cheers, Ania
February 27th, 2012 at 5:55 pm
Hi Tawny,
I’m sorry to hear you’re now ill too with a virus – most likely the same virus that’s been going around Canada since December
Hope you’ll feel better soon though 
re the US banks: oh i didn’t hear anything about Moody’s downgrading them – so, i don’t know anything about that – sorry
as for SLF.TO:
Oversold?? No, not at all – it is overbought!! If you look too at the weekly chart, you will see that SLF.TO has gone from the bottom keltner and is now up to the mid keltner – it is also right at price resistance at that $21.50 level AND is overbought on stochastics. IF SLF.TO cannot go higher from here to above $22.30 area (there’s resistance right at $22), then you can expect SLF.TO to come down from here. IF it CAN get above $22.30 area, then it “should” head to top of keltner channel which is currently at $24.26 (on the weekly chart) – there is resistance though at $23.21 that it would need to get through first in order to get to the $24 level. Also, there’s a bear flag showing on the chart (the WEEKLY chart) – IF this pattern gets completed, then the stock price will be coming down from here – and will go back down to that $18 level (and the keltner bottom is at $18.39). IF the $18 level holds and the stock bounces up from there, then that formation would be a double bottom in price AND the POTENTIAL start of a “W” formation – if the W is formed, then the stock will go up to that $24 level AND possibly could surpass it too!
So, as to what the stock does from here, will depend on whether it starts coming down in price OR continues higher – from the looks of the chart though AND with the stock having been in a downtrend now since Feb/ March 2011, it looks like SLF’s next move will be to the downside (it may take several weeks to months though for it to get back down to that $18 area).
Here’s the weekly chart so you can see too what I’m referring to:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLF.TO&p=W&b=7&g=0&id=p59490282197
on the DAILY chart, it is overbought on stoch and is just above the mid keltner. the top keltner is at $22.11 (which is where resistance is too at $22) – so, potentially, this stock could get to that $22 price and then come down from there. Can’t say where price will go next BUT its upside is limited and it’s downside has greater potential – bottom keltner is at $19.78 right now – and there is support at $20.20 AND at $19.69 – so, a pullback to any of these 3 levels in the near term is very possible – OR another 40 cents or so gain to the upside from here before it starts coming down again.
Hope you’ll feel better soon tawny – get more rest
Eve
February 27th, 2012 at 6:03 pm
I use TDW trading platform. Presently I get hardcopy of all trades and month end account statements – needless to say I get a tone of mail. I have the option of going paperless, ie, no hard copies sent to me of anything.
I would appreciate some discussion on the advantages /disadvantages of going paperless – perhaps some real life experiences. Thanks, Ken
February 27th, 2012 at 6:15 pm
Ken/AB
I have been paperless with TDW since they started that process a few years ago, for myself I have no issues with it. If I need a paper copy for some reason I can always print it out but that is a rarity. You can always print or save as pdf if that helps and then save it on your hard drive for ease of use and delete it afterwards. I do not miss the paper.
February 27th, 2012 at 6:17 pm
CJ,
Just check the stock you don’t want on the right hand side.(a square) Then go up to remove checked. Or just go to Streamer Video Tutorial and it will show you all the things you can do. The charts are nice too!
Hope it works out.
February 27th, 2012 at 6:22 pm
Hi Ania,
re my post to BJ: thanks Ania
Glad to know you found it helpful – thanks for letting me know 
ok, re BHI:
It has been in a trading range now for several months of between $46/ $47 to $52/ $53 area. So, if you can get it at $47 to $48 (as it is in its seasonal period for oil until May), then that would most likely be the bottom in price and it should head higher again to that $52 area. Watch oil to see where it stops going down in price to guage when to enter BHI. It bounced off $50 today, so that right now too is a strong support price – so, it needs to get below $50 in order to “suggest” it might be going to $47/ $48 area. It might not get down there – due to seasonality and due to oil being in a strong uptrend. BUT BHI is overbought, so it should come down from here – just watch oil though
re TA:
I’m assuming you’re meaning TA.TO?? if yes, then it is very overbought right now BUT on a pullback, it doesn’t look like it has very much to fall as it is currently in an uptrend and is at the keltner top – thus, on a pullback, it should only pull back to at most the mid keltner which is at $20.71 OR to the 9 day MA at $20.80. IF it goes BELOW that $20.71, then it will most likely find support at its break out point of around $20.50 to $20.40 – strong support though at $20.50, so, $20.50 might be the spot! If it goes below $20.38 (as there is strong support at $20.38 to $20.40), then it will head to bottom keltner which is currently at $20.27.
Hope this helps Ania
eve
February 27th, 2012 at 6:24 pm
Eve
So sorry, I am really not so well, I meant XLF the Financial sector which is why I mentioned FAZ and yes, should say, overbought! …. All your work – merde. Oh boy!
February 27th, 2012 at 6:30 pm
Tawny,
Check out my answer to BJ above – you will find it helpful for day trading on the 5 min charts.
ok re XLF:
Been on a good uptrend since December – each time it has pulled back, it has only pulled back to the mid keltner and then bounced up from there – it did that today too! So, for tomorrow, after it gets to its 4 day MA on the DAILY chart (currently at $14.69), it should head higher from there. Upside is to the keltner top over the next days coming – keltner top as of today is at $15.07 – resistance though at $14.87 that it has to get thru first before it can head to that $15 area.
Hope this helps Tawny
Hope you’ll get better really soon!!
eve
February 27th, 2012 at 6:41 pm
Thank you Eve.
Yes, I meant TA.to, I will keep watching oil prices for a good entry point for BHI.
Have a great evening, Ania
February 27th, 2012 at 6:45 pm
Eve, if you have a minute, what are your thoughts on BAC? Thank you.
February 27th, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Slava,
Hey girl – I will answer you in a bit re BAC – BUT, as a preliminary analysis, it has more downside susceptibility than upside
BUT, I’ll get back to you later tonight with a more in depth answer 
eve
February 27th, 2012 at 7:01 pm
HURRAH! I finally made a day trade that was a day trade LOL! In and out of GFS.TO 200 shares and made a whole .30/share. (I found it too late!) Must study and see if it will do another lift off tomorrow!
Also small gains today on BA.TO; T.TO;TD.TO and RVBD (although they are all still in red ink) Lundin, Potash, FM.TO, and AMZN were losers.
February 27th, 2012 at 7:08 pm
Eve,
Thank you for the info – great explanation. It is going to be most helpfull.
February 27th, 2012 at 7:57 pm
Hi Eve and Tony,
I was wondering how to create a chart for 10 years.
Thank you, Ania
February 27th, 2012 at 8:00 pm
Sorry Eve and Tony,
I meant using the stockcharts, I will like to create a chart for the DOW Jones “$INDU” for the last 10 years.
Thank you, Ania
February 27th, 2012 at 8:03 pm
Hi CJ,
Congratulations on your day trade success, keep up the good work. Enjoy your earnings, Ania
February 27th, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Eve,
i also appreciate your answer to BJ’s question … i am sure many who follow the board in silence appreciate your teachings ..thx.
February 27th, 2012 at 8:35 pm
Comments from John DeGoey – guest @ market call tonight:
Just to highlight another approach to the Markets:
Market Outlook: I have no forecast regarding what the market might do in the future. Owing to my belief in a high degree of market efficiency, I continue to hold that no one can reliably forecast market moves or time the changes in market sentiment. My view is that people who purport to be able to do so are severely overstating their analytical abilities. News will reach the public domain and markets will fluctuate in accordance with that news. However, since news is unknown until it happens by definition, market moves are unknown in advance.
February 27th, 2012 at 9:03 pm
Rim-Kim,
Ya, John Degoey also said tonight that it has been researched (over MANY years – decades I think he said) and found out that the MORE people “TRADE” stocks as opposed to simply buy and holding them, those people will lose money as the research has found that people who sold one stock they’ve made money on, in order to buy into another stock, that a year later the stock they sold will have been higher in price than what they sold it for – and the stock they switched into, would not have done as well! Well, I bought POT.TO last year at $51 and I sold it at $54.00 (3000 shares) – whoah ya boy, I guess I SHOULD have held on to THAT stock – right?? now that it’s almost a year later and POT.TO is trading at just over $46. Oh and I bought TCK.B.TO last year at $55 and I sold at a loss at $47 – and TCK.B.TO has not even made it anywhere CLOSE to my sell at a loss price of $47 – let alone my buy in price of $55 – in that 11 month period – wow, ya, DoGoey’s advice was great for THAT stock too!!! Oh and let’s not forget RIM.TO too – for the people who bought it on a pullback last year at $50 or even $40 and are still holding it now – a year later – wow, guess that Dagoey advice was right on the money there too – wasn’t it?! My buy last year of RVBD at $36 and then my selling it at $40 (2000 shares) – and now almost a year later, it’s trading at $28 – ya, what a fool I was selling it at $40 – wasn’t I?! Hmm, SEVERAL more stocks I can say the SAME thing about too! Ya, John Dagoey tonight was soooo right in everything he said on trading – wasn’t he??
Then you have Larry Berman from 1130 am this morning on BNN who told the viewers that it’s ok for Buffett to be a buy and holder as that is how he made all of his money in stocks since the 1950′s – but yet even in 2008, buffett’s holdings lost 50% of their value – and why? Larry said because Buffett always says, he doesn’t care what the market is doing – he just buys good companies and never sells them – and as Larry called Buffett one of the smartest investors in the business but yet even Buffett lost 50% of 2008, he said! And the point of Larry saying this today?? To tell the viewers that “these days” – in a SECULAR BEAR MARKET – people must TRADE the charts – using TECHNICAL ANALYSIS Larry says – as it will be the “charts” and “TA” that will tell you when to buy and sell a stock to make a profit! He used SU.TO as an example – he said that over the last 10 yrs, if someone had simply bought and held suncor, that they would have made NO MONEY in that stock! YET, he said, there were MANY opportunities to buy and sell suncor at support and resistance levels over those years where a person could have made A LOT of money doing it – as SU.TO he said is a GREAT “TRADING” stock! I guess that person who bought SU.TO 10 yrs ago, would have been wiser to have stuck with Degoey’s advice tonight rather than TRY and go with Berman’s advice of TRADING “using” Technical analysis and the charts to tell a person where a price will go to in order to buy at the bottom range (support) and sell at the top of it (resistance).
Ya, Degoey’s soooooooooooo right – NO ONE can TELL ahead of time where a stock will go to in price – LOL! I hope his portfolio isn’t filled with BUY AND STILL HOLDING of: RIM.TO being bought at $75 from 2010 and TCK.B.TO at $60 in 2011 and AGU.TO bought at $95 from 2011 and RVBD bought at $40 from 2011 – and I can give more examples too!
I like John Degoey – but for things like these that he said tonight (of what YOU have just written and what “I” have just written too of what he said), they are simply laughable!
Eve
February 27th, 2012 at 9:12 pm
Eve
Thanks for the info. Picked up about day trading that you sent to BJ. Not sure when I will be able to trade again. Hope I am well enough tomorrow to do some bailing out if it need be. Back to bed.
February 27th, 2012 at 9:46 pm
Rol Lew,
“Took an upper-cut on fcx long, a left jab on gdx long,
a poke in the eye on aem short, and a kick in the groin on bal short.”
I am just getting chance to read the board and I am only on your post #8 and I am laughing and enjoying your humor…good to see you got right back in the ring…:)
February 27th, 2012 at 10:07 pm
Hi Ania,
You can’t look at a 10 yr chart using stockcharts UNLESS you are a subscriber to them. If you’re only using the free service of theirs, then you can only look at a maximum period of 3 years on a “weekly” chart. If you’re wanting to see though what a 3 yr period was doing in the markets, say from 2005 to 2008, then you can look at that by simply changing the setting of under “range” from “fill in the chart” to “select start/end” and a little calendar will pop up for the start year, month, and day you can choose – and then click on the date box for it to change to that new start date you’ve chosen – and then a second pop up calendar will be showing for the “end” date – and you can choose the day, month, and year for that too and then click on the date box and it will appear there. Then you hit “update” button on the chart and you’ll see 3 yrs of data. IF say you chose a start date of Jan 6th 2004 to Jan 6 2009 – it will lop off the additional years from the chart in order to simply show you 3 yrs and that is it! Here’s a sample of the SPX from Feb 2005 to Feb 2008 to show you what it would look like with the date range showing underneath the bottom left of the chart under “chart attributes” and then under “range”:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&st=2005-01-03&en=2008-02-28&id=p75957412305
Hope this helps
eve
February 27th, 2012 at 10:13 pm
Hi Bob,
Thanks for letting me know that my post to BJ was helpful for you too – i appreciate you that very much Bob
Eve
February 27th, 2012 at 10:14 pm
Hi Sky,
I found that post of Rol lew’s today really funny too – LOL – it had me laughing earlier today too
Good when there’s humour on the board 
Eve
February 27th, 2012 at 10:31 pm
Hi Slava,
ok re BAC:
It keeps bumping up against that $8.05 to $8.15 range and then comes down. There is even more resistance at $8.20 and then at $8.35 too! It is no longer overbought though – and from the chart, it has the capability to go to the keltner top which is currently at $8.43 (IF it can get thru each resistance point to get there).
As it has been rising off the lows, each time it has pulled back AFTER it reached the top keltner in January, it has found support at EITHER the 9 day MA (and then moved higher again to get above keltner top again) OR at below the 9 day at the mid keltner point – like it did today – and then bounced up from there. So, mid keltner today was at $7.78 – and BAC went to $7.67 and then bounced up to end the day at $8.04. This is the FIRST time the stock has actually gone BELOW the mid keltner and then bounced up from there to close much above it – so, that kind of price action could be a bit worrisome as it suggests that BAC may be looking to come down to the bottom keltner rather than head to the top. BUT, IF it can get thru that $8.20 level and then the $8.35 level, then it will be able to get back up to the keltner top.
Also, it looks though like it is trying to get to oversold on stochastics as stoch is at 47 right now (and moving down) – and with it moving in price like this of going down 20 cents and then up 10 to 20 cents in a several day period (each day), this can cause stochastics to get to oversold zone which would mean BAC is oversold BUT its price is relatively stable at that range of between $7.60 to $8.05 type of range. So, BAC might be trying to get that accomplished without having the stock price sell off to go to the bottom keltner which is currently at $7.13.
Right now though, it is hard to tell if it’s going to go higher or lower or simply do this up and down thing until stoch gets to oversold. The markets and what they do overall, should dicatate how the price action in BAC will go – and right now, the markets again are at their respective resistance levels for the DOW and the SPX – so, IF the SPX can break above 1371 DECISIVELY and try to head to the keltner top of 1376 on the 2.5 setting OR 1381 on the extreme 3.0 setting, then this may be the catalyst that pushes BAC above $8.35 rather than sending it below $7.60 area. Without that kind of catalyst, then BAC just may be stuck at that $8.20 and under level before it finally does sell off to the bottom keltner – whenever that may happen!
Hope this helps Slava
eve
February 27th, 2012 at 10:36 pm
PS Slava,
Just happened to see this now on yahoo finance – re BAC – looks like it will be a positive for BAC:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/bofa-8-5-billion-deal-201620877.html;_ylt=AjPB7KCWJWCN85J.HWM_44eiuYdG;_ylu=X3oDMTQzMmExdWo3BG1pdANGaW5hbmNlIEZQIEp1bWJvdHJvbiBMaXRlBHBrZwNlYmJhOWI3Mi0wNjlhLTM1NWEtYWJkMC1hZjM3ZmYxZTViNzIEcG9zAzEEc2VjA2p1bWJvdHJvbgR2ZXIDYTQyMGFjNzAtNjE5ZC0xMWUxLWJmNTktYmI1ZmE2MDE3Y2Mw;_ylg=X3oDMTFvdnRqYzJoBGludGwDdXMEbGFuZwNlbi11cwRwc3RhaWQDBHBzdGNhdANob21lBHB0A3NlY3Rpb25zBHRlc3QD;_ylv=3
Ok, weird link – but I’ve done this twice now and it comes up the same long link. So, must be correct!
Eve
February 27th, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Everyone,
S and P downgraded Greece today to “selective default” – here’s the link:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/p-downgrades-greece-selective-default-222120464.html
February 27th, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Eve
About no. 76
Well 2 things.
ONE: It’s Rim-Jim & not Kim! For me it’s no problem… As it is just an alias, but think of the guy – Jim & not Kim, ‘Ball Silly’ of RIM who destroyed the canadian tech. Leader single handedly because of his foolish & obsessive ambition of owning a ‘for God’s sake’ a hockey team?! While Apple was inventing & successfully launching new products every year. At least those put buyers & call sellers, not to mention the short sellers, are ever so grateful!
TWO: I don’t know much about John DeGoey but I think his time horizon definitely goes above 10years and if I remember correctly he goes with ETFs only. So he can be a little more safe.
So it’s a different story, Eve.
But hey thanks for your view and continued conversation on the subject.
February 27th, 2012 at 11:05 pm
Rim-Jim,
sometimes i type “stocjastics” when i mean to type “stochastics” – it’s just a typo that i didn’t catch before i posted my note – you’ll see I often have typos in my posts – not because I cannot spell – but because my finger hit an incorrect key – that’s all
i’ve even written my name on occasion as “ve” – as i hit the “E” key BUT it didn’t register as I guess I didn’t hit the key hard enough. so, didn’t mean to type anything but Rim-Jim – (j and k if you’ll notice, are right next to each other – i do typos often 
).
My convo was more about discussing Dogoey suggesting – or outright stating – that no one can tell where the market is going to go OR where a stock is going to go in price – THAT was what I took issue with – as yes, with TA tools, one can often tell where a market will go to in price OR where a stock will go to in price too – that’s how TA works
eve
February 27th, 2012 at 11:07 pm
PS Rim-Jim,
yes, RIM is another stock that has been a GREAT trading stock – MOSTLY though for the short sellers
eve
February 28th, 2012 at 12:01 am
Eve,
No prob., I guess I was just trying to highlite why I chose the name RIM-JIM and your typo was nothing but an excuse for it
Everyone who writes does typo, so no worries.
I shall rest now & will try dreaming that Jim of RIM has his own hockey team
February 28th, 2012 at 12:02 am
Last days of Feb 2011 and first days of Mar 2011;
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TSX&p=D&st=2011-02-21&en=2011-03-11&id=p40155897852
Thanks Eve !!!
February 28th, 2012 at 12:50 am
Larry,
RE your post: “Something has changed with my computer setup because now when I leave TechTalk and go to something else for ex. a chart someone has posted, when I return, to techtalk I get bounced to the top of the session.”
Just checking: Did you manage to get that sorted out? Did you try Firefox as I suggested?
February 28th, 2012 at 12:55 am
Hi Tony,
I appreciate your posts over the weekend. Your teaching style is empowering. I remember when you first turned the tables on me – I learned a lot. Thank you.
February 28th, 2012 at 12:58 am
Hi Eve,
Thanks for your weekend posts too.
Your shorting (or not!) examples on the weekend were interesting. I’ve never shorted, but you made a compelling case for it. So I’m curious: Given your experience and reflections on what you coulda/shoulda done, why have you decided to not be a “shorter?”
February 28th, 2012 at 1:18 am
Eve, thank you very much for your posts on BAC.. your posts are always a great read.
February 28th, 2012 at 2:21 am
Eve,
Excellent post you wrote to BJ, very informative and helpful.
Thank you.
Looks like you are back! Hope you are feeling better now.