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Editor’s Note: Don Vialoux is scheduled to appear on BNN tomorrow at 7:00 PM EST.
Pre-opening Comments for Thursday March 1st
U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 3 points in pre-opening trade. Investors are responding to encouraging economic news from China. China’s Purchasing Managers rose in January to 51.0 from 50.5 in December.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for weekly initial jobless claims was 355,000. Actual was 351,000 versus 353,000 last week. Consensus for January Personal Income was an increase of 0.4% versus a gain of 0.5% in December. Actual was 0.3%. Consensus for January Personal Spending was an increase of 0.3%. Actual was a gain of 0.2%
Investors are waiting for Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s second appearance before Congress. This morning, he testifies before the Senate Banking Committee.
Three Canadian companies reported quarterly earnings overnight: Royal Bank, Toronto Dominion Bank and Bombardier. Royal Bank and Toronto Dominion reported higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings and raised their dividend.
Wendy’s is expected to open lower after Janney Capital downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral. Target is $5.50.
Trican Well Services is expected to open lower after First Energy downgraded the stock from Outperform to Market Perform.
Thompson Creek Metals is expected to open lower after RBC Capital downgraded the stock from Outperform to Sector Perform.
Technical Watch
Royal Bank of Canada (NYSE:RY;TSE:RY) – $55.68 Cdn.is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings and after increasing its quarterly dividend. The stock has a positive technical profile. An intermediate uptrend was confirmed earlier this week when the stock broke above resistance at $54.87. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index has been positive since mid-November. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Seasonal influences recently turned positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/clip_image0011.png "clip_image001[1]")
Royal Bank of Canada (TSE:RY) Seasonal Chart
Toronto-Dominion Bank (NYSE:TD;TSE:TD) – 80.83 Cdn. is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings and after increasing its quarterly dividend. The stock has a positive technical profile. Its intermediate uptrend was confirmed earlier this week on a break above resistance at $80.57. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index has been positive since early November. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of May. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/clip_image0031.png "clip_image003[1]")
Toronto-Dominion Bank (TSE:TD) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image496.png "clip_image004[1]")
Wendy’s/Arby Group Inc. (NYSE:WEN) – $5.07 is expected to open lower after Janney Capital downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. Support is at $4.67 and resistance is at $5.50. The stock trades below its 50 day moving average and could move below its 200 day moving average at $5.04 as early as today. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since the end of December. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Seasonal influences are positive. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.
![clip_image005[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/clip_image0051.png "clip_image005[1]")
Wendy’s Arby’s Group Inc. (NYSE:WEN) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image006[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/04/image71.png "clip_image006[1]")
Mark Leibovit’s Daily Gold Comment
More information on Mark’s services is available at
http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp
GOLD – ACTION ALERT – BUY
Perhaps I had a sixth sense that something may be ‘rotten in Denmark’ when I wrote yesterday morning: "Though I am on a BUY signal, remember, chasing any market is not a wise financial practice. If you have been slowly accumulating positions all along (at all levels), there is less stress in trying to ‘catch up’ and chase prices when they are rising. The ‘boys’ have the power to pull the plug at any time. We learned that last year. I suspect the ‘big’ players (hedge funds) are also part and parcel to the current upside action. When they change their mind, watch out. I suppose NOT seeing gold and silver into new record highs this year might act as such a catalyst on their part."
Gold prices were selling off Wednesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated that an additional round of quantitative easing was becoming increasingly unlikely. We experienced a ‘flash-crash’ type scenario yesterday. Short-term, a ‘Key Reversal’ and Negative Leibovit Volume Reversal patterns on some daily and weekly charts. At the worst levels, spot gold declined $106.00 measuring from Tuesday’s 1792.40 high to yesterday’s 1686.40 low. Silver declined from the morning high of 37.62 to 33.88 or $3.74.
Central planners can’t announce they are going to have constant and massive QE or everything would go to the moon. So the idea is floated around that QE3 is off the table. If gold and silver are going to head a lot higher from here, this is what you would expect the manipulators to do ahead of that move to make sure as few people as possible are on the long side. The bottom line here is we will still see a big move to the upside because we have a tight physical market and that’s going to cause the price to explode higher.
Seasonals warn of a top at the end of February for Gold and an equivalent top by mid May, so much of this may be just a cyclical phenomenon regardless of Bernanke. That said, technicals rule and until we clear highs from earlier today and/or Positive Leibovit Volume Reversals are formed, some caution needs to be exercised if you’re trading. I am in the camp that any washout (including this one) is a buying opportunity, so I remain on my BUY signal. That said, picking the exact bottom of such events is more of an art than a science – so I cannot provide you a precise downside target for this correction. Indeed, we could have seen the lows yesterday. If you believe as I do that silver is headed into triple digits (maybe high triple digits) and gold could see $11,000 an ounce in the current decade, any washout is an opportunity to do some buying.
Interesting Charts
Gasoline prices rose yesterday following news that gasoline inventories fell 1.6 million barrels last week. This year gasoline inventories have passed their traditional annual peak 10 days ago and they have peaked at a lower level than last year. Gasoline prices normally escalate into the end of May as inventories fall. Look for gasoline prices to ramp up significantly from current levels by May. ‘Tis the season!
The Canadian Dollar was the star performer yesterday despite strength in the U.S. Dollar. Nice breakout above resistance at 101.10 cents U.S. to establish an intermediate uptrend!
The precious metal sector was significantly impacted yesterday after Bernanke confirmed that the Federal Reserve does not intend to provide additional monetary stimulus any time soon. The Gold ETF and the Silver ETF recorded Leibovit volume reversal signals.
The Russell 2000 Index and its related ETFs continue to show technical signs of rolling over. The period of seasonal strength from mid-December to the first week in March has come to an end earlier than usual this year.
Weekly Review of Select Sector SPDRs
Technology
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages
· Short term momentum indicators remain overbought
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Materials
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is forming at $36.40 and resistance is at $37.97. Note the volume reversal on higher volume yesterday (i.e. Leibovit volume reversal).
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought and have rolled over.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is positive, but showing signs of change.
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Consumer Discretionary
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
· Seasonal influences remain positive.
Industrials
· Intermediate trend is up. Note the volume reversal on higher volume yesterday.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought and rolling over.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has turned negative
Energy
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
· Seasonal influences recently turned positive.
Consumer Staples
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is showing signs of change from negative to at least neutral
Financials
· Intermediate trend is up. However, early signs of a change have surfaced
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving average.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought and have rolled over.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is positive, but showing signs of change.
Health Care
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought and have rolled over.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Utilities
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $34.14 and resistance is at $36.27.
· Fell below its 50 day moving average this week, but remains above its 200 day moving average.
· Short term momentum indicators are neutral
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
NY Harbor Blendstock RBOB Futures (RB) Seasonal Chart
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Financials to lead global equity markets higher”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/02/29/financials-to-lead-global-equity-markets-higher/
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC February 29th, 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: RY, TD, WEN
March 1st, 2012 at 6:22 am
Good Morning BJ
About trendlines vs MAs. MAs is more of my tool but I do occasionally use trendlines.
I dont know how to write this one down. its the third time I write it down but it doesn’t come out as I would like it to make it simple to understand.
MAs are good trendlines as long as you can find an MA price bounces off you know when to get in or out and when it breaks (cross of the 4 or 9 vs support or resistance) you get go with the flow.
take a look at the CAT major support since Jan 2010 was the 150MA but as time went on support became the 38MA and the 50MA until may 2011, before breaking down to the 200MA so the next time you got in at the 200MA it broke but having a 4-6% fail safe your loss would had been small compared to the one who held on to it. In august 2011 you could have used the trend line slightly below 80 as support and with 38 resistance.
if you would have drawn a trendline on the 2010may and august tops but had you moved in the bounce in september 2011 on oct 4th you would had been 7% below and would had probably missed the whole thing saying it will come back
nothing is an exact science
now if you look at apple aapl, its currently in uncharted territory so putting a top 6% above the head fake it had earlier in feb its like playing with fire with a company that could easily move to 700 before the end of the year(just speculating still hitting my head that I sold it below 200$ after a 40% pop in 4months back in 2007 and nver bothered bying it back grrr ), would have put a stop below 9 as it is minor support and 200 major support.
March 1st, 2012 at 8:24 am
Eve:
Re: Feb. 29th – #168
Thanks for your response. I appreciate your explanation.
March 1st, 2012 at 9:49 am
Toni,
Thank you for your heads up call on BBD.B last week when you mentioned the $ 4.50 area for a possible pullback.Sold last friday.
March 1st, 2012 at 9:52 am
CJ, still own TD? Congratulations if you do..
March 1st, 2012 at 10:07 am
I got lucky with HGU.. from $12.37 to $12.55 on 6k shares and I’m out..
March 1st, 2012 at 10:10 am
HGU managed to go from $12.24 to $12.60 in 15 minutes.. +3%.. It would take 2 years to earn that in a GIC in Canada.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:11 am
CJ, FM at $23.30..
You must be smiling today.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:12 am
Good work Slava. Glad it went your way. Do you still hold HF.to ? I remember you bought it a while back. I have it in my nieces RESP and am debating to hold on or cash out after its recent good run. Thanks, Paul
March 1st, 2012 at 10:16 am
Tony,
you got it right again saying the banks are going up.
D.V. just said last week the banks are going to underperform.
Is it to late to buy HFU.T?
Did you get ADVFN level 3 working?
Thanks
March 1st, 2012 at 10:22 am
Am thinking of getting into PSN.TO as they have a nice dividend… Price has gone down recently.
What are your thoughts ?
Thanks in advance
March 1st, 2012 at 10:24 am
Paul.. re hf.to .. I’m still holding but it’s had a really good run lately so we may see some profit taking next week – who knows?. It trades so little volume that if someone decides that they want out it can come down. I hope to sell at $4 one day.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:25 am
HVU at $8.52 is starting to look interesting but I’ll wait. Michael, thoughts on HVU? I think it will definitely be in play tomorrow (Friday). I’m trying to assess if I’m in the gambling mood.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:26 am
Eve, thank you again for your market update yesterday.. your prediction came true. The markets are up today climbing the wall of worry, yet again.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:28 am
Slava #4/7
Busy morning – Yes still own TD and nice to see it pop after earnings – but my breakeven on it is $84.73 (held this a long time)
I am out of FM at 23.31025 so a little exta change! My TFSA all sitting in cash and I need to find somewhere to put it!!
March 1st, 2012 at 10:28 am
NG drawdown.. ouch! say bye bye NG.. HNU at -9.75%, congratulations to hnd holders.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:32 am
Bough back BBD.B in Margin account today on weakness and added to my BAC in RRSP (only trade there). These are trades, not married to these stocks.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:32 am
Darn – Telus popped at the same time – high today right at my breakeven point.
hopefully another day or two and I will be able to take some off the table there as well
March 1st, 2012 at 10:35 am
Paul, you may pick up a little bit on HFU but Cdn banks are looking very overbought at this time – take a look at TD, for instance. So risk/reward does not warrant hfu purchase now as a “buy and hold” (you are too late) in my opinion.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TD.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p76050177551
March 1st, 2012 at 10:35 am
” I got lucky with HGU”
Slava, Your finger was itching to go long
on ABX yesterday – because of the steep selloff -
You made the same move on SNC two days ago – after that selloff.
So you have to face it…. This is NOT luck.
This is a well thought out strategy…..
Keep doing it until it stops working for you.
Way To Go!!
March 1st, 2012 at 10:37 am
The moment NG inventory numbers were released was the exact moment to short COG.. I missed it, of course, because I feel lazy today. Overworked. I came home from work at 9 p.m. last night (midnight EST). Completed another 15-hour day. Time to book a getway to Cancun or Bahamas.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:38 am
I missed hgd and hvu trade .. oh well.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:40 am
Til,
If I’m right ,this company is a spin off from a fracking company.
The problem with this company is that they make and rent tanks that any other company can produce.I believe it is just a matter of time somebody else does this.
Just my opinion and others comments I have heard.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:42 am
Slava,
Thank You
March 1st, 2012 at 10:45 am
Rol, thank you very much
I’m learning. I think I’ve been staring at hgu/hgd, abx/gg and gold itself for so many hours in the last several months that I am developing a sixth sense. Doesn’t always work, of course, but can be pretty accurate. For instance, when HGU hit $12.60 and stalled there, and I was watching abx struggling to move higher and started to turn down, I knew it was time to buy hgd.. it was around $8.32 at the time. but I just want to have some peace prior to departing for work. HGD is now at $8.38.. so it would have bene $0.06 on 7k shares.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:46 am
Re COG Just food for thought.
I have viewed again about it, if current level can’t hold, next would 30, if next 30 can’t hold, 17 would other target, it can be $$$$ a day, Hay, better chance elsewhere, took loss.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:46 am
Morning, Rol Lew
Please check you mails.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:49 am
Paul, also, have you seen daily average volume on hfu.to? 33,000 shares.. so it can’t even ben used for day trading very well.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:50 am
Hi Slava. When aren’t you in a gambling mood?! Fridays have been generally good for HVU over the past month. Also, it seems to like the $8.50 support level and bounce back up, but over the past week, there isn’t a clear direction. Roll the dice. I tried picking some up yesterday but missed it (walking the dog again!) at $8.48.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:51 am
I don’t know why bbd.b is being so severly punished. They always do it to this poor stock on the earnings day.. I believe it also has the tendency to fall for a day or two after the initial sell off – shorts just overwhelm it!
March 1st, 2012 at 10:52 am
Michael, what kind of a dog do you have? I hope it’s a Great Dane or a big German Shepherd?
March 1st, 2012 at 10:54 am
Soooo….the US economy is improving…..really???
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-if-market-rolls-over-here
The current rally has stalled right at a multi-year line of resistance, and a potential A-B-C pattern in a long-term channel suggests a return visit to the March ’08 lows around 666, or perhaps even lower.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-lowers-q1-gdp-second-time-one-day
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/ism-misses-big
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/personal-income-spending-come-weaker-ahead-gasoline-price-shock
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-backpedals-housing-recovery-delays-housing-bottom-forecast-mid-2013
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/only-54-young-adults-america-have-job
March 1st, 2012 at 10:56 am
Soooo….the US economy is improving…..really???
Just headlines in case it won’t pass vetting…all zerohedge in last two days…
guest-post-if-market-rolls-over-here
“The current rally has stalled right at a multi-year line of resistance, and a potential A-B-C pattern in a long-term channel suggests a return visit to the March ’08 lows around 666, or perhaps even lower.”
goldman-lowers-q1-gdp-second-time-one-day
ism-misses-big
personal-income-spending-come-weaker-ahead-gasoline-price-shock
goldman-backpedals-housing-recovery-delays-housing-bottom-forecast-mid-2013
only-54-young-adults-america-have-job
Yup, looks like the US is just fine and dandy….
March 1st, 2012 at 10:57 am
I’m now a firm believer that my style of investing is day trading. I have a good sense for day trading but as soon as I start to “hold” positions for days/months most of the time they go against me. One very interesting observation I just made.
March 1st, 2012 at 11:06 am
Hi Slava. I have a Siberian Husky she-devil. Blonde, blue-eyed, and a mind of her own (sounds like someone on this blog!).
As for day trading, if it works for you, go with it. I think that Canuck2004 has a brilliant strategy: buy/hold primarily dividend payers. So, you could follow this for part of your portfolio and then day trade the rest.
March 1st, 2012 at 11:06 am
I heard a comment from a US HF manager that makes you think about a correction.
He said we may not have a correction for quite a while because the market is far from normal because the retail customer is not in the market in a big way so this limits volality.He believes the market might just trade sideways at times then continue grinding higher.
March 1st, 2012 at 11:10 am
# 29 Slava: BBD.B
It is usually the most shorted stock on the TSX, so because of the liquidity it will bounce around…very high beta. Great trading stock… small price, great liquidity.
Today is not out of the norm…long stops getting triggered….on the upside though, when it moves up, it will move up dramatically as the shorts try to cover….either one in a cascading effect.
This the period of seasonal strength for this guy until June Paris airshow…to me, set-backs are buying OPs….until then….but I’m not trying to make money on this name by the end of today or new week… I don’t mind holding some…unless it continues to break down next week, then I will reassess…lol
One day at a time…
March 1st, 2012 at 11:17 am
Re#35
make that limit volatilty.
need anothr coffee
March 1st, 2012 at 11:18 am
Steve
your welcome its all in a days job or should I say part time job
March 1st, 2012 at 11:28 am
Michael, Siberan Husky – nice! I call my hot Russian “Husky eyes”… He has beautiful blue eyes.. remind me of a Husky.
March 1st, 2012 at 11:31 am
Volume is so low.. markets moving higher on low volume – it’s not a good sign, is it? Algorithms at work.. today they are programmed to buy, buy. LULU up +3.5% on no news.
March 1st, 2012 at 11:35 am
Paul-R
thx for advfn as it showed me a new company I hadn’t looked for in years.
one question how come the time stamp isn’t upto date?
even if time is central take one hour off of 11.35 is not 10.24
March 1st, 2012 at 11:40 am
Other thought , for readers who read this notes, please don’t take in person. I try not to offend anyone on this board.
I like all the comments and repect people’s point of views , but I don’t read them especailly TA or click the charts . Unless there is very interesting topic. I don’t even follow any TA man or woman on BNN or CNN,news whatever they say.That just Noise. Because other’s view and style may just fit themselves.
March 1st, 2012 at 11:42 am
Paul-R
HFU my only concern is volume but for the time being financials should be moving higher for sometime.
March 1st, 2012 at 11:45 am
#42, But if my name has addressed, I will like to discuss! Thanks!
)
March 1st, 2012 at 11:48 am
Tony,
I noticed the time,I have no idea.
I watched it while I made a large trade and it was up to the second
March 1st, 2012 at 11:49 am
Lin, watch out my friend! You may get bombarded with questions
I have a million questions I’d like to ask you.. perhaps when we meet in Richmond for dim sum one day..
March 1st, 2012 at 11:50 am
MICHAEL/TONY – Any thoughts as to why Visa is faltering last couple of days? Would you buy at this price? $117
March 1st, 2012 at 11:54 am
snc is on fire..
March 1st, 2012 at 11:55 am
Lin
Sorry if my question will seem some deja vu I don’t like askling others questions I already had an answer to. well not true think rol was out so he didn’t complete on this one.
I know it will help others in the process
Previously on timingthemarket.com
I asked why sell cog 36$ put when price is at 32
and then I followed with this one.
tony Says:
February 29th, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Ok rol
no I don’t own cog, just trying to understand why someone would try and sell puts higher then current price.
I would have waited for price to reach 32 and then sell the 30 call and buy a 28$ puts. but still I don’t know if this is even thinkable of doing.
I am either complicating options or getting myself in trouble to iundestand the basics.
Sorry there was a mistake in my sentence
should have read… waited for price to reach 32 and then sell the 30 PUT and buy a 28$ puts. but still I don’t know if this is even thinkable of doing.
March 1st, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Hi Michael,
Well, it seems to be TCW’s turn today….19.50 is near term resistance.
March 1st, 2012 at 12:12 pm
Hi, Tony
I repect you and Eve’s comments very much!
I will get this back to you later on..
March 1st, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Out of RVBD @ 29.0902 – Thanks Eve – it took a while but finally got there!
March 1st, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Michael,
On Feb 15 RBC dongraded CFW and TCW. Since then CFW is up 20% in 2 weeks. Today TCW was downgraded by First Energy and it was up 6.5% today. Think the banks are self serving?
March 1st, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Buying DECK 1/2 position
March 1st, 2012 at 12:21 pm
Lin (& others)
You may have an interest in this investment that I came across KGJI which has had a breakout above $2.00. It trade s at about 3.5x earnings. Tell me what you think, please?
“WUHAN, China, Feb. 23, 2012 /PRNewswire-Asia/ — Kingold Jewelry, Inc. (NASDAQ: KGJI), today announced an agreement with China Citic Bank (Wuhan) (“CITIC” or “the Bank”) to design and manufacture 24-Karat gold investment-oriented products for resale throughout the Bank’s local retail banking network. China CITIC Bank is one of the leading commercial banks in mainland China, with more than 600 retail footprints and has operations in nearly 130 countries and regions around the world.
The agreement with CITIC, which is initially for two years and renewable thereafter, calls for Kingold to design and manufacture 24-Karat gold investment-oriented products, including coins, bars and ornaments, on behalf of CITIC.”
March 1st, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Sky,
Congratulations on your CET, also up 6% today!
March 1st, 2012 at 12:35 pm
Tony, #49
Are you selling naked 36 puts ( means you don’t have stocks) ? I will get back to later.
March 1st, 2012 at 12:51 pm
bought DECK at 76.71
March 1st, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Slava,
LULU is a monster stock!! It has doubled in a year!!! It is unreal!! Heading for the keltner 3.0 top now too at $70.85! Don’t know what to say on your short
e.
March 1st, 2012 at 1:02 pm
#58, DECK April 75 Call at 5.40
March 1st, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Thanks Lin
CJ,
Instead of selling it outright (RVBD), you could have just put a stop loss at that price you sold it for – and then just let it ride higher for today to see where it goes in price – then move up your stop loss like every 10 cents – that way you can guarantee yourself more upside gains. It’s broken out above resistance today it had at $29.20 – price resistance AND a pivot point resistance too! Just a strategy then to use for a future trade in a stock – instead of selling, put a stop loss at that sell price and then let it ride higher – and move the stop loss higher. You’ll make more gains that way
Eve
March 1st, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Slava
NTR
re:20
Try the Negril part of Jamaica this time rather than Cancun/Bahamas. I think you would enjoy the area (i’m sure the other area’s you mentioned are good also), just something different this time.
March 1st, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Lin
I don’t own cog…
Rol answer to my why sell 36 puts when price is below strike price means that you are bullish on the stock.
my question is can I sell a 30put and buy a 28 put?
f
March 1st, 2012 at 1:23 pm
RVBD money rolled into CRUS @ 23.70
March 1st, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Slava,
I wrote to you yesterday in regard to SNC. I suggested that you try to find out as much as possible about the allegations regarding this company. The stock fell, not only because of their advanced warning on financial reports. I think that this information will take the stock down further. I think they will soon be under investigation from some governments.
March 1st, 2012 at 1:24 pm
so when DECK drop to 72. I will be out…
March 1st, 2012 at 1:28 pm
my question is can I sell a 30put and buy a 28 put?
Tony, is that same month?
March 1st, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Tony
If it is same month, then you would have 30-28= 2 credit. I think you can google search. Richard Clifford tells me that “YOU don’t like spread???? too bad.” Nope I don’t.
March 1st, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Snc was part of a group awarded the darlington nuclear referb. Project. ?… Billions / 15 year project
March 1st, 2012 at 1:51 pm
Hi CJ. Sorry, I was out for a bit. Visa has recoverered and it likes to ride along the top of the Keltner, so it’s a momentum play right now, which is Lin’s specialty. I would stay away from it. There are two gaps: one at $108.64 and another at $102.70. If you really want to buy, put in a stop just below $110.
March 1st, 2012 at 1:52 pm
Tony,
TCW.TO, FRC.TO, CFW.TO
The oil servicing companies all seem on fire. I should have jumped on the bandwagon while it was time. I am so wary of the overall market that it makes me nervous to hold on to long positions. I screened them out last week. Would you believe it? They are overbought right now, but they probably still have room to run. What would you consider a good entry point?
TCW.TO mid-keltner $17.13, MA9 $17.44 So, $17-17.50 could be a good entry point. ($15-16 would even be better, but unless the market comes down significantly) target $20 based on options and recent top last November. Peak last July $26.60. So, not much upside short term unless there is a pullback.
That is my analysis for TCW.TO For the other two, They are already very closed to thier highest level of the jpast three years. A pullback would be necessary to make them attractive.
March 1st, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Tony/Eve/Slava/Michael/Everyone/Anyone
Decision Time!!!
Telus approaching my breakeven point – do I get out with small profit or hold past ex div date of March 7th??? (Div: 200 shares @ 0.578492) What do you think??? I have already made up my mind, but maybe you can change it LOL!!
March 1st, 2012 at 1:55 pm
COG – Selling Puts
” my question is can I sell a 30put and buy a 28 put? ”
Hi Tony – yes you can do that.
March 30 Put .05 / .10
March 27.50 Put .00 / .05
But based on the current prices – you would get a credit of 0.00
So let us look at some other strikes
March 35 Put 0.90 / 1.00
March 30 Put .05 / .10
Sell the 35 & buy the 30
You would get a credit of .80
This is also a bullish trade – Bull Put Spread.
It is “safer” than selling the one put naked.
The spread is $5 wide. You got .80 credit, so your risk is 4.20
vs on selling the 30 naked, your risk is $30, theoretically,
if you get put the stock, and then it goes to zero. OK, I know
that you will not sit there and watch that happen.
If you sell the 30 naked, and the stock falls to 23 by expiration,
you will be put the stock, at 30, then you can sell it for 23,
for a loss of $7 less the .80 that you were credited.
You can also buy back the put at any time, if you see that it
is not working out (COG not going UP) as you had hoped.
Take the loss before it gets worse……
Anyways, today the March 35 COG calls are up from 1.14 yesterday to 1.45 today,
So the son of a gun IS bouncing…. 31/114 is 27%…… Money for nothing!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlPjxz4LGak
Blondie @ 1.06 minutes….. Is that one of the chicks?
Or blondie @ 2.21….2.54
OK… Never mind the chick-a-dees, Eric will live for ever !!
March 1st, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Tony
You can talk to your broker, they give you level to trade option. And those questions , they will help out.
BTW, big open interests sometime just like a set up for people get in and then shake them out. Be ware!!
March 1st, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Hi Ron/AB. I sold half of my TCW with a limit order at $19.40 while I was at the gym! I’d like to repurchase if it drops to the 4-day MA of $18 or so. And don’t get me started on the banks…
March 1st, 2012 at 2:00 pm
bob,
If you are investing in a company, you have to find out everything about that company.
SNC:
http://www.cbc.ca/news/business/story/2012/02/29/f-snc-analysis.html
March 1st, 2012 at 2:00 pm
CJ,
Keep telus – it should move up into the div payment. you can always sell it the day before the ex div date – that way, you’ll get all the upside in the stock for ppl that buy it for the div – BUT won’t get the div – which is ok as telus should go down on ex div date by the amt of the div anyway.
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 2:04 pm
lin
if I should put this spread it would be something like 3months ahead to sell the 30 call and 28 i would play it 6months so always have time to get a nice fix on the price should it drop below 28
March 1st, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Lin Rol
so 30 /28 put spread is basically I’ll take it off your hand and if it should go against me I will sell if lets say cog drops to 17$ as Lin pointed out
am I getting this correctly?
March 1st, 2012 at 2:11 pm
ZOld DECK on April 1/2 position 10 contract 6.60, so far At this trade I made about 1200.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Ron/Michael
the frackers downgrade at the levels they were was cut and paste with the name cp. after my recommandation if you recall I mentioned in the past to it could have a small pullbak to 48 before running higher, and the next day RBC downgraded it and Slava knows first hand how much she lost on the short trade, while Rachel (i think it was) benefited from my recommandation.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:12 pm
RoL… ROL…. Am I worng?? Sorry Tony….. That is why I don’t spread .
March 1st, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Lin, Rol
so 30 /28 put spread is basically I’ll take it off your hand if it reaches 30$ and if it should go against me I will sell it if it takes a beating and drops to 23$
am I getting this correctly?
so should it move higher I would benefit from it should it move against me I will sell and not take the beating.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Slava
Sure, why not?? I like read your posts too. doesn’t matter date or trades.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Hi Eve,
Tech Talk wrote: The Gold ETF and the Silver ETF recorded Leibovit volume reversal signals. I was wondering if “Leibovit” is a technical indicator created by “Leibovit”.
Thank you very much, Ania
March 1st, 2012 at 2:18 pm
BTW Lin and Rol thx for the explanation
And Lin thx for the respect coming for a successful trader such as you I am flattered.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Martine
Ok, I have done some live trades so far, And how make this for living and I can live wherever I want. And the most importance is. When We place trade we need understand, comfortable what we belive. That is all the posts I have done for you.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Eve #77 – Hmmmm! A dividend of $115.70 or a Capital Gain of the same (if what you say is exactly on – I won’t hold you to it Eve LOL) – I kinda like the Divs -cannot visualize getting that high in the next few days. Thanks for your thoughts Eve.
Anyone else got some input?
March 1st, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Canuck
Warning on bbd.b I saw 4$ puts strike being traded on the m-x
just so you don’t get to caught up with it.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Hi Eve,
I am watching the oil chart $WTIC, the price went down to $104 and bounce off to $106. Do you is still time to get to BHI, when the oil closes @ $104 or lower.
Great Thanks, Ania
March 1st, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Yes Tony – going out further makes sense too,
although I would be a little leary of doing 6 mths,
Yes – you would get more premium, but the time decay would be slower.
It decays fastest in the last 3 weeks. But there is no law
against 6 mths.
Also doing that gives you a chance to pick strikes more
out of the money, and still get some premium credit.
July 35 Put 3.30 / 3.50
July 30 Put 1.45 / 1.55
CREDIT 1.75
July 27.5 Put .90 / 1.00
July 22.5 Put .25 / .40
CREDIT 0.50
COG has a greater probability of being above 27.5
than being above 35 by July expiration.
A more aggressive trader would maybe do the 35/30,
or even higher – since the thought would be
COG is SURE to go UP by then.
A higher probability – lower risk trader
would maybe opt for the 27.5 / 22.5
just in case everything does not go
swimmingly nice.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:24 pm
CJ
V the only concern is MACD MA that is moving lower so I would have a stop loss below the 18MA probably 112$ but W%R is good to go and and the 9MA is holding for now.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:29 pm
CJ
These lower beta stocks will have a lower cap gain but higher div than the higher beta stocks, generally speaking. So the end result depends on your investment philosophy, for Telus, I added to my holdings on Friday, I do not plan on selling anytime soon. I also added to my BCE holdings this week, and am looking at ENB for another entry point (not there yet). I’m sure you will make the right decision either way.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:29 pm
Hi Eve, I meant the price bounced off $104. I meant do you think that entering the oil sector is not too late.
I missed on entering COG @ $30.00, it seems I am always too late in the game.
Thank you very much, Ania
March 1st, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Tony , Eve ,Micheal, Rol lew and others
I wish when I started my trading life, I could have some people like you have done here. Hat to you guys.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Eve, Well you were right about USO, only pulled back to the 9MA, damn! I missed my 2nd buyin. What does BTW mean in the posts?
March 1st, 2012 at 2:34 pm
CJ,
Well, my gut feeling initially was to say keep it for the div – why not? BUT, IF it goes down in price ON the ex div date by the amt of the div., then you wouldn’t have gained anything by holdind it for the div – HOWEVER, EVEN on ex div dates, a stock can initially go down by the amt of the div BUT THEN go up again price – so, IF telus does this ON the ex div date, then you’ll get the div PLUS you’ll get the price higher than the div payout IF the stock goes up again that day OR even the day after. So, that’s something to give thought to as well
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 2:39 pm
kay,
Did you collect on the HND trade today?
March 1st, 2012 at 2:39 pm
So other 1/2 Deck
If the price drop 72, I will out.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:39 pm
Hi BJ. BTW means “by the way”. I won’t ask what BJ stands for…
March 1st, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Ania,
re Leibovit reversal – yes that is Leibovit’s own indicator – you can go to his website and see his commentary on it – just google his name for the site.
re BHI:
seems the price to have bought was at $50 level as it went to that price point for the last several days and then bounced off it from there. I question though why BHI isn’t participating today in the run up in oil price when SLB and HFC ARE participating in it – so, either BHI is going to run higher in the next 2 days OR it is waiting to see if the oil price is about to fall again – maybe on the jobs numbers when they’re released?? not sure what to tell you with it! But it isn’t really doing much today as those other ones – BUT, neither is HAL or SU doing anything much today either! So, don’t know what to tell you with this Ania – sorry. But it does seem that that $50 price for now IS where strong support is for BHI – it went to $50 yesterday and to $50.28 today – and to $50.05 on tuesday I believe – and then bounced up from those price points each day – and to $50.15 I believe on Monday too and then bounced up from there.
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Tony As we know target price is just probability, I did some number of SINA last years. The target prices was 50 zone, it happened. I had mails send some people from the board. So just share what I have seen on COG. I wouldn’t short it . because “Tis season” …
March 1st, 2012 at 2:46 pm
Thanks Lin
I wish I had all this great info too from this board when I first started trading too! Would have made things much easier than learning as you do the trades – although I did do REALLY well in the first 2 months of my trading – with not knowing anything really LOL – just traded gold and oil stocks each day – that was all! When oil and gold went up, I bought the stocks, when they went down, I sold the stocks LOL – that’s all i was doing! Made good money 
Thanks Lin – hats off to YOU too
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 2:46 pm
mick/nv#93
Eve #97
Mick – I have nothing to “add” to my Telus position and it has been tying up a lot of my capital for several months so the Dividend does look good.
Eve – “Bless you – it all depends” quote from the Mikado LOL – I think I might chance it. Going to see if I can figure out what happened last year at this time….
March 1st, 2012 at 2:47 pm
89-tony
No big deal, one position among many defensive ones…. I’ll see next week how it goes….leaving it alone here.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:48 pm
BJ,
BTW – as Michael said, by the way
Yes, I got that 9 day support thing from tony when he introduced to the board using the 4/9/18 day MA as support/ resistance points AND for trading daily on the 4 day
So, thanks tony for THAT invaluable info on that combo of ma 
Thanks BJ
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Martine
tcw.to breaking the 100MA Jan resistance was your entry point especially playing with it like a dog on a bone, so how high can it go I don’t know for sure but 21$ looks feasabile
now where to enter is another story price ran away from the 4MA can we get back to the 100MA not sure price broke above the 150MA and is contemplating breaking above the 200MA
so this is a guess where my strategy would be 50% now and 50% you can divided that some you buy the 4MA, some the the 150 and some the 100MA, if it runs like a crazy lunatic well at least you have some on it.
frc.to is a head scrather if breaks above 16 the sky is the limit as this is uncharted territory for this one.
cfw.to
all time high 45$ breaking above 200 is good
now my only concern is when you’ll get a golden cross this is where I would have a trailing stop cause more often then none golden cross is the end of the cycle.
Man I think next time someone mentions JF tardif I will listen carefully as this guy knows is stuff can I have him as my portfolio manager I know this guy will make me much mula I should devote a shrine to his honor.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Lin
I don’t short
I just want to understand what it means selling a put at one price and buying a put at a lower price
I know how to call the calls but the puts is all giberish in my mind i easily get confused.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Ania,
re COG:
every time it gets to the mid keltner area (around $34.70 to $34.85 right now), it gets bought. So, it just doesn’t want to go below that mid keltner right now. It’s going to $35 for options expiration (I’m thinking) for March – this might go to a higher price later in the month.
re oil and oil stocks:
this trade goes to May – just best to buy on weakness on pullbacks – so, no, it isn’t too late – BUT if you want to buy BHI, it might go up from here as it is currently trading above its 4 day ma of $50.64 AND it is currently showing a bull flag pattern on the chart which “suggests” it can move higher from here. OR, you could play it safe and just wait to see if it pulls back again to $50 to $50.25 area and see if it bounces off there again. Oil may just be going to $110 again to see if it can break through there – if it can’t, it’ll be a double top. I think jobs report will give more help on where oil will go to next – if report is bad, oil will go down – if its good, oil will go up.
hope this helps
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 2:56 pm
I like your style Michael.
Good move with TCW. I have found that rotating between a few of these drillers has been successful.
March 1st, 2012 at 2:58 pm
Hi Tony,
Re #81
Are you saying CP was downgraded just before it took off?
March 1st, 2012 at 3:01 pm
CJ
T.to
telus I would be a seller on the 6th.because the macd H started rolling over. never a good sign.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:02 pm
“” Rol answer to my why sell 36 puts when price is below strike price means that you are bullish on the stock.”"
Tony, COG is at 35.67 today.
If you were super bullish, you could even sell the 36 Put or 40 Put,
any month. These Puts are already in the money, so there is a chance
that the lady you sold them to would exercise them early on you. As long
as there is intrinsic value in the option, early exercise should not happen,
but “should not” does not mean “will not”.
So one reason to sell the puts lower than the strike price – i.e. out of the money -
is to avoid early exercise. But the main reason is to give yourself a
margin of safety, in that if you sell a lower strike than the current
price, then the the stock has to fall, for you to be in a loss position,
but, having done your analysis and stuff, you expect the stock NOT to fall,
or if it falls, you expect it to find support BEFORE it gets down to your
sold strike. So the lower the strike you sell, the “safer”, but the premium
is also less that you collect.
The CREDIT you show from the tables, is the maximum money that you can
possibly make from this trade, and that will reach it’s full value at
expiration. If COG suddenly shoots up to $55 next week, then maybe 90%
of that CREDIT will be available right then, because both the Put options
would fall a lot, to maybe .10/.15 & .5/.10
But if you do not get a sudden big surge, you will just have to grind
it out and wait for expiration to approach, all the while hoping that
COG does not go down too much. And the more time you sell, the more
time there is for something BAD to happen (pessimist), but also the more
time available for something really super to happen (optimist).
Lin,
Yes, Spreads can often be a pain in the A$$ETS, because, again,
you have to wait for expiration to approach, for the wisdom of your trade
to show itself in money. But, on the other hand, if you are wrong, you do
not get as big a kick in your A$$ETS, so it is a trade-off.
And you can do 1$ (= timid) spreads or $25 spreads (= agressive),
or not spread at all (super-aggressive = mainlining).
March 1st, 2012 at 3:04 pm
PS Ania,
Oil did a reversal in price candlestick yesterday too – PLUS it was far from its 4 day MA at $107 area when it went down to $104 yesterday – so, those are 2 reasons it went up today – the reversal cs pLUS trying to get back up to its 4 day MA at that $107 area – plus, the first of the month usually has oil and gold and stocks going higher – so, there’s another reason too
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 3:07 pm
Hi Lin,
Are you still holding SNDK?
If yes do you plan on keeping it overnight?
Thanks Lin
March 1st, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Eve, between lulu and cmg short positions I’m down over $21k now.. I honestly don’t know when to cover.. It seems crazy to cover now but I’ve been saying it for the last two months!
March 1st, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Looks like CMG wants to go to $420 and lulu to $75..
March 1st, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Lululemon is up +52% since January 1st.. wow
March 1st, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Eve, and this is why I said earlier that I should be day trading only. “Buy and hold” generally doesn’t work for me. I also shouldn’t have taken such large short positions.. and Investorline should have covered my lulu short at $60 just like they promised.. but they didn’t and the stock is now near $70.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Hi Tony –
Buying Calls is Bullish – You expect/ hope the stock will go up by expriation
Selling Calls is bearish
Buying Puts is bearish
Selling Puts is bullish
Buying Call Spreads is bullish
Selling call spreads is bearish
Buying Put spreads is bearish
Selling put spreads is bullish
If it gets more complicated than that,
it is harder to figure out.
You will have to simulate it, to see
how stock price changes affect the profit.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Hi Ron/AB. I got a bit lucky today with TCW. It’s up close to 25% in 2 days from its lows and the momentum was good this morn at $19.20 Looking at level 2 quotes, I saw that there was nothing offered at $19.40, so that’s where I put in my limit order. Now debating on BBD.B…it would break my rule of not purchasing the same day as bad news.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:15 pm
mick, thank you for the advice.. We just booked Cancun for 10 days – March 28 to April 7th, can’t wait! Also looking forward to visiting Isla Mujeres which is just off Cancun.. such a great little island.
http://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&q=isla+mujeres&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.,cf.osb&biw=1280&bih=843&wrapid=tlif133063315594710&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&ei=0NlPT-KqE4fdgQeonrHxDQ
March 1st, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Time to buy HOD soon when oil its 115$ in the next day! Any opinions on HOD?
March 1st, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Hi Slava,
But when they told you you needed to cover LULU, then you could have covered it then too – at $60. I know though why you didn’t – you were hoping it would come down. i wrote to you though in January when it jumped up to $62 that i saw this SAME thing occur last year (in March) with GMCR when it jumped up $15 in one day (from $43 to $55) – and then drifted higher from there (into the $60′s) til it reported earnings – then bam, it went up again to the next price level of the $70′s – and it kept moving like this right to the $116 price several months later that it hit! It only came down in price due to that accounting scandal – but i don’t think that will happen with LULU. So, I told you in January that i can see LULU acting just like GMCR acted last year when it bounced up by that $15 price overnight – and I still believe it with LULU. The only way it will come down to the $50′s is if they miss earnings – they report this month – OR if the markets as a whole, sell off by a LARGE amount – maybe this will occur in May to June?? Don’t know. But IF LULU beats, I feel it will go higher – just like GMCR did last year! From here though, it should come down in price – maybe to $67 area?? its breakout point – to test there – stocks usually test their breakout points – so, if that happens this time, look maybe to cover it?? but it’s at the keltner 3.0 top right now, so it should be coming down from here rather than going anytime soon to $75.
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 3:26 pm
OOps – PS Slava,
i meant GMCR bounced up from $43 to $58 overnight – it pulled back that day to $55 – BUT that was the low price AFTER it went above $43 that day! It never saw $50 again – UNTIL it sold off from over $100 to $40 – several months later.
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Hi,Rami/AB
Yes, I do. This trades for a little longer times, IF market internal is still up or sideway ( most likely) I may go for fe weeks. IF it reach 53 today, I would very happy to exit, wait 53 hold and buy more until 60..
March 1st, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Eve, yes, I’m like an ostich who burried her head in the sand when it comes to cmg and lulu.. these two are actively destroying my portfolio. I try so hard to trade but it seems the gains I make are just being absorbed by such huge increases in cmg and lulu.. it’s so tough to make a decision to cover and take such big loss.
I think lulu would have to beat by A LOT to justify current valuation. I believe they are reporting earnings on March 15th. If it continues to run up at this speed for the next two weeks .. hmm – it would be very painful on my 600 shorted shares.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Rol Lew
Lin,
Yes, Spreads can often be a pain in the A$$ETS, because, again,
you have to wait for expiration to approach, for the wisdom of your trade
to show itself in money. But, on the other hand, if you are wrong, you do
not get as big a kick in your A$$ETS, so it is a trade-off.
And you can do 1$ (= timid) spreads or $25 spreads (= agressive),
or not spread at all (super-aggressive = mainlining).
Yes, I am very simple woman, I like simple…, I have really PRO on the street tells me about it. Nope. I don’t like it.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Thanks Lin
One more thing , what do you think about SINA here?
March 1st, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Eve, so I will need to make $500 per day, every day, from trading for 44 business days in a row to cover the losses on my cmg and lulu short positions which were entered by me by clicking a few buttons on the computer about two months ago. Wow is all I can say. Complete lack of discipline and risk managment. I’m so angry with myself right now.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Footnote to #130.. or I just need one of my juniors to make $22k quickly
March 1st, 2012 at 3:38 pm
Hi All,
Anyone is in HVU.TO it started its upward movement about 1 hour back. Just wondering if its wise to keep overnight?
March 1st, 2012 at 3:38 pm
Hi Michael,
Funny you should mention BBD. I was just looking at it. It has fallen a lot and is near S1 pivot. I think this one might reach S2 pivot at 4.05 but could also bounce. I don’t know.
EFL is another that I have my eye on. It’s pulling back and has reached the 9ma. It could pull back further still though.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Ron/AB
It must be love that I always mention rachel
instead its Kelly.
tony Says:
October 6th, 2011 at 1:17 pm
Kelly K,
CP.to
price should move down to in the 49.5 to 51.50 and change this would be good place to start buying your core position for CP.
and then it will have a nice run up near 65-70
will find the post rbc downgraded cp…
March 1st, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Slava
NTR
Looks like a great place, I am sure you will have a wonderful time
re: cmg/lulu
You could buy call options on these to take advantage of the run or maybe sell puts to offset what you currently hold. I’m sure you thought of this already. Maybe Rol Lew can advise better on the option front.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:41 pm
TONY #112 – The way it has dropped this afternoon, I think I will be holding for another long while – will just have to ride this roller coaster until it makes me some money!
March 1st, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Tony
It took for me a while even after I took cousre from Lawrence G. But once get it use to it, it is really good vicheal to ride. Good luck, may next year you are the one going to option here.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Kelly K Says:
October 7th, 2011 at 4:04 pm
Anybody has opinons About RBC downgraded CP.TO today?
CP.TO held it very well today. feels like it has intention to go up.
Tony
do you still see that it will pull back before it goes up?
thanks
Kelly
tony Says:
October 8th, 2011 at 9:38 am
Kelly K
CP.to it moved away from the 4MA on the 6th should move in the 50 range, but it could move to as low as 45-47 but I doubt it will hit this target.cp.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Rami/AB
SINA
I had some number I send to my freinds who riding on short since then. The hacker delate all my file and I sent mails to my freinds to see if they still have copy. If not, I will make other one. And let you know, gmsa has my email address, you can get him, send me a note. once I get it. I will mail to you. As far as not too much mails a day , I can handle it.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Hi Ron/AB. On BBD.b, there’s a slight gap that could close at $4.06, so the S2 point would look like a better entry.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Rami/AB
I have been day trading HVU for some time. It has been great for day trading.
Take profits often.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Tony
http://www.m-x.ca/evenements/optionsdayTor12_en?r=MXW
option day. I am not sure if Rechard is going to be there. but It is really good.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Slava
you should sue investorline for not keeping their promise or at least give you what you lost above 60$
March 1st, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Thanks Micahel, I decided to hold off on BBD. Tony also mentioned puts at $4.00 so I agree that around the S2 pivot is better.
March 1st, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Rol thx
for the spreads comment.
Lin
would love to attend the educational segment in TO but I’m in MTL
March 1st, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Slava
here is my trade …
Damn and to think I could have been out at -3.5% on bnp.to ok will take my loss 4.2% like a big boy… lucky I only took half position so It hurts me less.
will let slf run, you listened to Ron/bc on love matter, but you are not on trading.
never let your losses run on you.
March 1st, 2012 at 4:02 pm
tony, re “you should sue investorline for not keeping their promise or at least give you what you lost above 60$: .. Good one! Well, back then I told them I would sue them for forcing me to cover..lol – I’m sure they record conversations with customers.. What can I say? I screwed up!
I believe overall I’m up around $20k since January 1st.. but it could have been $44k. I know I have to take the loss since it’s mentally killing me. When CMG crashes from $396 to $270 later in 2012 please remind me that I was right, just poor timing.
March 1st, 2012 at 4:04 pm
tony,
Really, if you make a poor move in shorting stocks then the institution, where you trade, is responsible?
March 1st, 2012 at 4:06 pm
slava
btw stifel nicolaus upgraded lulu from 70 to 77
March 1st, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Eve
My pleausre. Keep it up!
March 1st, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Ana
just kidding, because not so long ago bmo asked her to cover with and forced her a deadline while price was around 60$.
March 1st, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Busy day!!
Slava – 20K sounds like a fortune to me LOL
My 2012 activity 3 losses and 10 gains net +13.94
TFSA account, all gains 457.35
Little by little – at least it is positive!
March 1st, 2012 at 4:16 pm
Slava,
I sent you two messages here in regard to SNC. Are you still trading that company? Were you able to read the link on the company? If people think that they will not be under investigation, they are not understanding what this situation is about.
March 1st, 2012 at 4:17 pm
Slava,
I will repeat myself
cmg short if breaks below 18MA, or a 4/9 babybear
lulu same goes for lulu.
March 1st, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Hi Ana, thanks for the heads up on SNC.. for me it’s more of a “momentum” trade.. in and out quickly during the day. Will not hold overnight.
March 1st, 2012 at 5:13 pm
Tony
when sell put or call , time is close the better. And take profit if there is, my hubby has got few times, his worthless postion on fire a day before expire .. when buy always 45 day away , is better..
March 1st, 2012 at 5:19 pm
CJ, I agree – to lose $20k+ is a fortune! Especially in two positions over two months. And I don’t know when to take the loss so it keeps growing… on paper. Mind you Netflix also kept going up and up until it crashed hard. So that’s how it is sometimes. I just froze with these two and can’t deal with it.. very strange feeling.
March 1st, 2012 at 5:24 pm
Tony, thanks again for the advice. I wish I could turn back the clock and go back to January ..
March 1st, 2012 at 5:34 pm
CJ,
RE. Telus
Wait until we get close to the ex-div. date and then see what the capital gain would be vs the dividend payment. If this is a non-registered account, take into consideration the after-tax amount. Then, it will be easier to make a decision. If you sell, it will free up some cash and you can then reinvest in the same stock or something else. (Don’t be a rush as we should get a correction short term as we have been going up for two and half months which is highly unusual.) I also attached the seasonal chart.
http://charts.equityclock.com/telus-corporation-tset-seasonal-chart
Seasonally, the stock normally moves up till sometime in May and then tends to correct. If you hold, you might want to consider to sell at that time. Food for thoughts! I hope it will help you in your decision.
March 1st, 2012 at 5:49 pm
SLAVA #157 – I WAS TALKING ABOUT YOUR 20K GAIN FOR 2012!!!!
#147 “I believe overall I’m up around $20k since January 1st.”
You are only thinking/talking about the losses – glass pretty full – don’t look back!
March 1st, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Martine #159
Thank you for your input on T.TO I will certainly not sell at a loss after all this time, so I am hanging on and getting paid a nice Div to do so :0
Merci Martine!
March 1st, 2012 at 5:53 pm
Slava,
$21k is nothing!! You can easily make that back in a week! or LESS! with trading the right stocks – stocks where you can make $3 a day in on avg and trading 3000 shares at a time. Do you remember that I wrote on here a few times over the past year that stocks tend to try and make a $1 gain or more “dollars gains” each day?? like round dollars I mean – so, $1, $2, $3, $4, etc. – well, stocks are STILL doing this!! AND they OFTEN do these kind of moves DURING the day!! For example, today, take these examples:
LULU – opened at $67.81 – went down to $67.52 – high of day at $70.98 – so, a $3 move off the open price this morning
COG: low of the day was $34.81 at support – it went to high of the day at $36 – there’s the $1 move off the low of the day
LNKD: low of day was $85.25 at support – went to $87.25 in 5 minutes – there’s a $2 intraday move – then came down to $85.76 to $85.81 and hung in that price area for a full 30 mins from 10 am to 1030 am – and then went up to where?? yup, a $2 gain – it went to $87.90 at 11 am – so, within 30 mins, another $2 there! Had another couple of moves today too of over $1 gains. – so, all told, could have made approx. $6 intraday with this one – with having made $4 by 11 am alone!
KORS: opened at $43.69, low of day at $43.60 – only made it to $46.50 – BUT, it TRIED to get that $3 gain in there – but still, $2.90 on the day is a good move! This stock moves at least $1 or $1.50 or $2 each day – plus intraday moves too of catching 50 cents here and there.
SINA: low of day done at 935 am at $67.05 – then went to $68.50 within 15 mins – so, $1.45 right there. Then back down to $67.60 – then up again to $68.81 – so, the $1 move there again. then back down to $67.78 – then went up over the course of a couple of hrs during lunch and into the afternoon to $69.94 by 210 pm – so, there’s another $2 move! Then went back down to $69.16 and then up again to $69.94 – so, about 75 cents there! This stock makes moves like this EVERY SINGLE DAY!!! So, today, it made approx $6.30 to $6.50 in intraday moves that can be looked at on a 5 min chart using the 4/9/18 and bollinger bands and stochastics and williams %r on the 5 min chart to get in and out at the proper price points – usually at either the bottom bollinger (to get in) OR top bollinger (to get out) OR after it has done a round number move like $1 or $2 or $1.50 or 50 cents or 75 cents, etc etc.
WPRT: sold off from its high today at $43.18 to support at the 18 day on the 5 min chart at $41.19 (done by 10 am) – then went up to $43.50 (done by 125 pm) – so, a $2 move right there – well, $2.30 – but still, it’s a $2 move intraday!
I have other examples I can give too – as these things – these round dollar moves occur EVERY day in stocks – US stocks especially! So, if you even trade these moves at just buying saying 1000 shares on each trade, you can make back that $21k in a week to 2 weeks soooooooooooooooo easily!!! So, just something to think about
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 5:58 pm
PS Slava to my post at 162:
re KORS: I should have said that it DID make its $3 gain on the day – it just wasn’t from a low price of TODAY – it was from YESTERDAY’s closing price which was at $43.25 – so, KORS went to $46.50 – so, $3 move there!
Remember from the past, I have stated that stocks will do these dollar moves from EITHER the OPENING price of the DAY OR the LOW price of the day OR from the CLOSING price of the DAY BEFORE! Still going on to this day!!! DECK made a $4 move today from its closing price from yesterday – there’s another exa,mple
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 6:07 pm
To the board:
I wrote the 2 above posts to Slava BUT the information in the posts is good to know info for anyone on the board. I’ve posted this info several times in the past year (first time I posted it was to Michael in the winter of 2011 – March I believe it was) – so, I have been observing these dollar moves phenomenon thing for a year now – and to this day, AND throughout the bad months of last year too, this info is still good as this stuff still occurs every day! So, just something to keep in mind when looking at trading stocks daily OR for buy and holds over the course of a few days. It will help you in knowing where the price might be going on the day – based on the opening price that day OR based on the low price made in the day OR based upon the closing price of the day before.
Hope this info proves useful to anyone who reads these posts
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 6:08 pm
Here’s what happened last year in Q1 with Telus:
T.TO LAST MARCH HISTORY:
MAR 08/11 PRICE 46.58
Assume the ex div date in here
MAR 10/11 PRICE 45.62 almost $1 drop
All uphill from there:
MARCH 31/11 PRICE 48.55
I feel pretty good about holding – which was my original “gut” feeling – Thanks for all the input.
March 1st, 2012 at 6:09 pm
Tony,
Thanks for your comments. JP Tardif used to be with Sprott. I think he left because he had it with them.It is like a sweat shop. He is a smart guy. For most companies in that sector, fundamentals are good, but this is a very volatile sector. I don`t know the players. Otherwise, I would have gone ahead with the trades a couple of weeks ago. My loss! Again! However, I never invest money in sectors (unless there is great value and I would remain careful)I don’t know and I stay away from momentum stocks. I know a lot of people make money out of them. In my opinion, there are just inflated names with barely any value fundamentally. Very dangerous business. They always revert to mean, i.e. their true value and you do not want to be there when they do. For those stocks, I will keep them on my radar.
Do you still think we will correct in the short term? This rally is to say the least unreal. I have been strictly daytrading for the past few weeks as we go higher and higher. Extremely unusual. It has not been very profitable. I find it demanding and hardly rewarding for the amount of work. I wish I would have gone long this past December. It is always easier in retrospect. So, I do not want to be hit when the markets go down. I am probably too cautious.
March 1st, 2012 at 6:13 pm
PS to my post to the board:
that only works though on stocks that trade with high volumes and are “usually” over $30 in price AND popular stocks among traders – doesn’t work on all stocks like penny stocks for example. Don’t know if it works on ETF’s either but I doubt it does as ETF’s don’t tend to make such large moves in a day – unless they are in relation to gold or oil or silver maybe type of thing. I haven’t checked this out though for ETF’s – only for stocks – and only high traffic stocks or popular stocks etc. that I tend to follow.
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 6:27 pm
CJ,
Re. Telus
If I were in your shoes and the gain gets to around $1, I would sell and buy back at a lower price. The stock was at $56 just recently. As Tony also highlighted, MACD is also going south. Of course, you have to do what seems fine to you. You have time to decide as you get closer to the ex-dividend date. Glad to help!
March 1st, 2012 at 6:56 pm
CJ
You are getting alot of opinions of Telus today, here is another way to look at it. There were 2 nice run ups, one in Oct and another in Dec. Notice how the MACD hist was neg in the Dec run. this shows that you cannot make a decision based on just one indicator. The rsi 21 has been essentially above 50 since Oct, the 2 drops it had in Nov and Feb were short lived. Who know whether the current trend that started at the end of Feb will continue in a similar fashion to the Oct/Dec runs, time will tell, you are still getting paid nicely in the mean time.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=T.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p18121097577&a=259499663
March 1st, 2012 at 7:02 pm
Dear Eve, re “$21k is nothing!! You can easily make that back in a week! or LESS!” I wish! Such a confidence boost for me
Well, if I could make $1k per day I’d be very very happy!
Also, one of my junior stocks (bel.v) made a move from $0.11 to $0.17 in the last two months and I own about 300,000 shares so here is $18k right here (on paper for now, just like the losses on cmg and lulu).
So it sounds like I should take the loss, regroup and start over… These losing positions are also tying up my margin so it limits future opportunities.
March 1st, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Slava,
Just use the strategy i just gave to you – pick several US stocks to trade – maybe even use LULU as you know it well – and use CP too – then add other ones too – but you can make it back within a weeks to 2 weeks if you follow that strategy i just gave you – on those stocks alone!!! If the higher price stocks scare you, then look at using the strategy with lower priced stocks sych as COG (mid 30′s), HFC (oil stock – low 30′s), KORS (Michael Kors – HUGE earnings beat – stock won’t go below $40 as these markets are going sideways to up or down just a little to mid keltner or to 9 day MA as they did yesterday – KORS should stay above $40 though – until at least next earnings in about 2 months from now), MSFT, C (bank), FM, etc. Trust me – you can do it in that time frame!! ESPECIALLY with using SINA or LNKD or FOSL for examples.
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Slava,
If you want to preserve capital, let alone make money, I wouldn’t day trade,
esp. if you have a job (besides day trading that is!). There are so many more
reliable and relaxing ways to make money, esp. in a market like this. But if
the whole gambling thing is something you enjoy and you have the funds to
support it, go for it.
March 1st, 2012 at 7:20 pm
PS Slava,
oh another good trading stock is WPRT – in the low $40′s. You need to get to know these stocks first though to motice how they move each day. Another good one is ZNGA – in the low teens for price.
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 7:23 pm
mick/nv #169 – Great chart! I spent a few days last week tracking FM.TO by the indicators daily and sure found out that while it is nice to have all the ducks in a row, it just isn’t always so!! Interesting to see the MACD Hist sloping down while the price was running up!
Last night my notes on Telus read:
ex div date Mar 7
Current options $56 – 58
52 week high $57.90
All indicators very +ive
And result was a run up to 57.74
Impressed with the volume over past few days – but much less today and the bears won out in the end. I like Martine’s suggestion of selling at small profit when it spikes again, then buying back at lower price. Tomorrow I am on the road again, always hard to keep watch
March 1st, 2012 at 7:28 pm
Eve, great examples… This is what I’ve been doing (only not taking such huge $ positions as you mention). So I’ve been making money from trading (knock on wood) and losing this money by supporting my short positions). So I need to cut the cord on the losing short positions. My favourites for day trades are hgu/hgd, fm, cog.. snc (in the last three days..lol). I should keep an eye on fosl and the others you mention. But I now see that the most important thing is to cut the losing positions.
Thank you for your guidance, as always
March 1st, 2012 at 7:29 pm
#55
Thanks Tawny. have a great evening!
March 1st, 2012 at 7:29 pm
Hi Eve,
Thank you very much for your insights. I appreciate your help, Ania
March 1st, 2012 at 7:31 pm
Martine
I hope that I have answered your questions couple days ago. And I have done today again live trading. Thank you very much for you commets.
March 1st, 2012 at 7:32 pm
David, re “There are so many more
reliable and relaxing ways to make money”… I’m not sure about this, especially as it pertains to me. I used to “buy and hold” but I got burned with mfc, rim, etc. I mean take a look at Kinross or even SNC Lavalin! Even large-cap “blue chip” stocks can drop 20+% overnight on some news release, update, etc. So one never knows. Look at Yellow pages, Sino Forest (largest forestry co. on TSX at one point), etc. I no longer like to buy and hold (or now “short and hold”) unless I have a smaller position in a security (under $10k).. I’m also holding some juniors some of which I’ve been following for many years. So I’m finding long-term investing rather stressful, or perhaps I’ve had bad luck and just feel not comfortable.
It would be great if you could share some examples of what your strategy is and what you invest in.. be it stocks, etfs or mutual funds.
March 1st, 2012 at 7:37 pm
EVE – Thanks so much for your recent posts to Slava and to the board. Have copy/pasted those! I can now see both Cdn and US stocks in real time, and the US charts at 1 min intervals, so I should be able to take advantage of this – when I find some $US to invest that is!! LOL You have taught me so much and I am so grateful Eve!
March 1st, 2012 at 7:39 pm
I’m learning. In the future, I’ll always use stop losses. But what advice would you guys have for someone who’s been shorting the markets since Christmas and is well underwater. Do I bail? Do I stick with it because we’re closer to the top than the bottom? We all know someday the SPX will be back below the 200-day MA, but the waiting is getting harder. Thanks
March 1st, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Hi Eve,
Post: 162,163,164, and 167
I appreciate your insights and strategy for day trading. I would like to watch these stocks and try to have a good entry point and exit point.
Would suggest entering these stocks around 9:300 am, then watch for an exit point.
I have never did any day trading before and would like to start looking at the stocks you mentioned to Slava.
What would you suggest I need to do before I jump in.
Thank you very much Eve
March 1st, 2012 at 7:47 pm
CJ, in your post 180 – which website are you referring to where you can see Cdn stocks real time? Can you see real time Cdn charts as well?
March 1st, 2012 at 8:17 pm
Ania,
I would suggest you get to know the stocks first! Get to know how they act each and every day! You’ll start to notice patterns in how they perform each day. It’s with these patterns (combined with using a 5 min chart and those things on it that I’ve mentioned of the 4/9/18 day MA and bollinger bands and williams %R and RSI) that you’ll start to see how they act each day in price – then just watch them daily to see these price moves. For example: SINA will often go down in the first 15 minutes of the day to a support point OR it will go down by $1 or $2 from its previous days closing price and then it will bounce up from there by the $1 or $2 move – then it will come down again to get to a low around 1030 am and then move up to do a $2 move – things like that – that is how it acts on a regular trading day – when it is not reporting earnings or selling off to get to oversold area type of thing – you need to get to KNOW the stock 0 also, look at options and see where the price might be getting put to for the weakly options – IF the stock trades weekly options – SINA does trade weeklies, and for tomorrow, it is either going to be pinned to $70 OR to $72.50 – hard to tell for tomorrow from the options prices for 100% where it is getting pinned to – but I feel it will be to $70. COG makes a low each day around 11 to 1130 AM and then moves higher after that by that $1 to $1.50 gain – “USUALLY” it acts like this – it might start off up on the day and then just sprint higher – depends on certain things like nat gas price that day – but often, that is how COG acts each day. COG has weekly options too!
Here;s the website that is showing what SINA options are doing right now for the WEEK (where it states 1202 in the options code – that means expires on March 2nd – thus, 02) and monthly options expiration – shows 1217 in the options code = that is for March 17th MONTHLY options expiration (April monthly options are shown here too):
http://www.cboe.com/DelayedQuote/QuoteTable.aspx
So, you need to just set up a 5 min chart with those things on it i’ve mentioned – and just watch certain stocks to see how they move in price each day. Then just paper trade them BEFORE you do it for real – and see if you get the hang of it. Other good trading stocks for this strategy are RVBD (in the high $20′s – RVBD only has monthly options expiration) and RAX (in the low $50′s – it only has monthly options expiration too) – so, get to know them first – then paper trade them until you’re comfortable – after that, you can try them out for real – if you’re game to.
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 8:22 pm
CJ,
These strategies work best on a 5 minute chart rather than a 1 min chart as that chart will be more difficult to see the indicators and moving avgs on the chart as the chart will look too bunched together. So, the 5 min chart is better. OR even the 15 min chart – I sometimes use the 15 min chart for a confirmation of it being at the moving avgs OR the bottom bollinger etc.
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 8:31 pm
Eve, you subscribe to stockcharts.com, right? Basic service or smth more in depth?
March 1st, 2012 at 8:43 pm
Slava,
No, I’m not a subscriber to them – just the free version. I get all my real time charts of 5 min, 15 min, etc. from TDW (no charge due to having a Presidents Acct with them). They don’t have the keltner channel – so, that’s why I use the bollinger bands on those 5 min charts. But on stockcharts, I use the keltner. I keep stockcharts open so I can quickly see the 4 day MA on the DAILY chart for a stock – it’s easier than switching my charts on TDW to a monthly or 3 month chart.
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 8:44 pm
Hi Lin,
Sorry for not getting back to you sooner. I appreciate your comments that you made the other day. I did not get a chance to get to you. I can tell that you are very experienced at trading. It is just good to know when a trade is considered the rational behind it and the setup (day trade, swing trade, longer term hold for portfolio, setup as why this is viewed as an opportunity, target,..). Comments can be very brief, but this is a way to see where you are coming from. For example, I just read your information about DECK. Initially, I thought that you bought the stock, but later you indicated that you sold the options. Tell me one thing. Why do you trade DECK in particular? Great momentum stock? It seems to fluctuate a great deal. Is it always day trading? Would you buy to hold for a few days or weeks? If you do not look at charts, what makes you choose a stock like DECK or another one for that matter? Do you use stop loses at all to protect the downside? Again, those are some of the questions going through my mind. Otherwise, this is interesting to know about successful transactions, but it is not possible to gain experience from it. I personally would never trade a stock mentioned on this platform without getting comfortable about the transaction and I would do my homework as well. When you have the time, keep sharing you knowledge and I am sure over time we will all gain from it. I certainly appreciate you taking the time. That`s too bad we could not spend a few days with you for real life trading. That`s how I learn personally. It would be so great. Have a good night.
March 1st, 2012 at 8:49 pm
Tony, Post#1 Thanks for your info. and help on yesterdays question.
March 1st, 2012 at 9:03 pm
In his recent letter to stock-holders, and interviews on TV, Warren Buffett pretty much said dump bonds.
A few days ago Leon Cooperman, famed manager of Omega Advisors said, “The most widely traded instrument in the world is now U.S. government bonds. I don’t think people understand how risky a US government bond now is with a 2% yield.”
As the intermediate-term chart shows, just another decline back to its long-term trendline would be a 16% plunge in the value of bonds.
At this point a 2% yield is not paying for that kind of risk.
From;
http://www.streetsmartpost.com/
March 1st, 2012 at 9:19 pm
CJ,Eve
CJ I am glad you’re trying to put some sense in the girl (Slava)
Eve I gave Slava cybertrading university a great way for her to enter the trades, using the 1000Shares (the guy setup is trades to make 200$ a day in the first 1hr)
If Slava uses that technique on the companies you mentionned with her portfolio, she could quit her job before the end of the year. and put all her energy into trading.
March 1st, 2012 at 9:31 pm
Hi Eve,
I will follow through and watch the stocks daily. By the way, can I use stock chart for 5 min chart (or there is an other I can use). I don’t recall the book you suggested for day trading, I will like to borrow it from the library again
My deepest Thanks, Ania
March 1st, 2012 at 10:00 pm
EVE #184 – Noted, copied/pasted – thanks again Eve
March 1st, 2012 at 10:07 pm
Slava #182
Free, Real Time Ticker not charts for TSX dd posted it a few days back, Tony was also playing with it today – Here is where you register.
http://ca.advfn.com/p.php?pid=register
I use freestockcharts.com to see real time $USA stocks, complete with charts.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:38 pm
Cj
when you mentioned 3 loss and 10 wins for 2012 do you mean you traded 13 companies in all in and out for a total of 26 transactions if you did with your 19.99$/ trade you would have lost a total of 520$ in commission.
the same number of trades for 100 shares through virtual broker you would have paid a total of 26$ in comission so you would have not 13$ in profit but 533$
just something to think about.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Slava
is your cmg and lulu are they in your rrsp account or in a margin account? if its in a margin account I would take the loss and then would differ the loss in the future when you get a substantial gain.
March 1st, 2012 at 10:52 pm
Eve,
Would you suggest that I pick 5 t 10 stocks from the list that you mentioned to Slava and paper trade for few weeks , including, looking at 5min charts and 4/9/18 em’s. Am I correct or did miss anything else
March 1st, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Hi Eve,
I meant to write using 4/9/18 day MA, Williams %R, Bollinger bands, RSI, and STO.
Have a great night, Ania
March 1st, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Martine and Jeff
My outlook for the market is positive, whats the expression “seulement les fous ne change pas d’idee” Only fools don’t change ideas.
looking at the SnP Nasdaq and Dow they all have the same pattern they have been bouncing off the 18MA and running higher each time
if they break this rule SnP goes to 100MA (1258) Dow Jones 150MA (11900)Nasdaq 200MA (2670)
March 1st, 2012 at 11:02 pm
Rol and Lin
one final question on which exchange do you trade? US or CDN
March 1st, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Lin Says:
February 29th, 2012 at 12:38 am
Hi, Martine
I am full time trader. I do longer term I may hold stocks from months and years and short term a day to days, which pending on my target price. If it reach in one day , I would be very happy to exit.
I started as longer term trader, for those trades I write option with it for extra dividends, I check it up twice a week. I trade short term for income. Usually I can handle 4-5 trades in a short period. Again pending on internal market, I use option to control risk, especially last August to Dec. eg. RIG, I bought at 2.10 55 April Calls yesterday, when it was under 200SMA, I am looking for 3–5 bucks gain on RIG. Glue on PC?? yes, sometimes. Risk ?? yes. RIG 2.10 I spend could be worthless. Any way, love challeng. Thanks again! All the best!
175.Lin Says:
February 29th, 2012 at 12:44 am
Slava
Have look at EMN, Can we short it? NOT NOW. I have waited and waited.
March 1st, 2012 at 11:26 pm
Tony,
It pain to trade Canadian one , stocks or options. I trade most US one. It takes me about almost 7 years to get today. But you are very smart, may not take that long.
March 1st, 2012 at 11:29 pm
Hi Ania,
You can’t use a 5 min or 15 min chart on stockcharts unless you are a paying member for their site – the basic service costs around $14 U.S. a month I belive. Otherwise, you’d need to ask your broker if they have that kind of service available for their clients – and ask if it’s a free service or if you’d have to pay for it. OR, you could ask the board if anyone uses a free service to use the 5 min and 15 min charts that change price in real time without having to click refresh OR update all the time (as you need to do on stockcharts as a non-paying member).
Yes, you can use those stocks I mentioned to Slava – BUT, must be careful with LNKD, SINA, and FOSL as they can be volatile. Really good ones that move basically in a price range of not wild price swings AND seem to be moving upwards would be: KORS, LULU, RAX, ZNGA, and COG – other good ones would be HFC (trades with oil price), BHI (trades with oil), FM.TO (trades with copper), SLW (for a silver trade), WPRT (but for the next couple of weeks, it will be getting sent to around $43.50 as it did a share offering in the last 2 weeks at that price point – and the share offering closes sometime in March – so, until the share offering closes, it might just stay around that $43.50 price point – it could move up though to like $44 or $44.50 BUT, it seems to then come back down again to that $43.50 price after that – if it goes below $43, then it will be bought and go back up to that $43.50 price – so, that’s why I say that it seems to just want to hang out there until the share offering gets closed).
CYOU is another good one too! It looks like it has found a bottom recently at the $25.50 area and is now looking to head back up to its recent high of just over $29 – you can see it looks like it is creating a kind of elongated box on the chart – that would be called the “Darvas box” – and it tends to close itself – so, once it gets to $29.50 area, it will have closed itself and at that point, the price could continue higher and then come down to that $29 level and stay there for a week or 2 to base there – that would create another box and it would then go up to close itself at the higher price it went to after closing the first box at $29.50 area – that’s how the “Darvas box” works. So, keep an eye on that one and see if in fact, it does go up to that $29 price point (it’s currently at $27.11) – if it does, you’ll know it’s completing the Darvas box
Here’s the chart so you can see that box I’m referring to:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CYOU&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p69644583085
RAX recently completed the Darvas box too – it based at the $42 level after having been at a high of $45.45 – then it completed the box at that $45 level (from basing at $42 for about a week or so) and went up to $50 – after that, it came down to $48 and then reported earnings and beat – so, the price then went up to $56.94 that day after it beat – and then came down from there each day – so, from the looks of that chart, it looks too like RAX is trying to set up to complete another Darvas box – but not sure yet where it will base at – it should be at the gap point and previous high of the first Darvas box high at $50 – but so far, it has only gotten down to $51.26 and that was just TODAY – but then went up to $52.57 (so, it got almost a $1.50 gain in there today). I’ll send you the chart of RAX in a separate post.
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 11:32 pm
Hi Ania,
here’s the chart of RAX – see how it looks like it’s trying to form an elongated box?? See the first box formed from that high of over $45 and then it went down and stayed around that $42 level – and then completed the box when it ran up in price from $42.30 area to get to $50 within just a few days?:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RAX&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p99358518172
So, ya, THAT’S the “Darvas box”
just more TA info stuff for you to know
but it is useful WHEN you see it occuring on a chart with a stock 
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 11:34 pm
CJ, (and anyone else who may be interested in more TA stuff that is very userful for making money),
Check out my posts above to Ania – in those posts, I discuss the “Darvas box” – if you can spot one forming on a chart, they can be very lucrative – so, check out what I wrote on them to Ania
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 11:46 pm
Tony,
Yes, with those stocks I gave out to Slava, for sure she could make AT LEAST $1000 a day (by trading blocks of just 1000 shares in each trade daily) – BUT, could easily make more money too as she has the cash in her accounts to make $6000 daily EASILY!! (Slava told the board a few months ago the value of her portfolio – so, that’s how I know the amount she has in her accounts and how I can say what I did about easily making $6k daily
).
Thanks tony
eve
March 1st, 2012 at 11:49 pm
Martine
I just like work in my office, 4 computers, 7 screens. I don’t turn on BNN.
Thanks for you comments. I thought you questioned my trades. I have many readers following my trades. They trade options and stocks. I bought 20 contracts ( means 2000 shares DECK) calls toady on DECK , 10 was sold.
I don’t really like input too much, one chart than 1000 words.
I like you questions, which were mine when I officially visited FRANK EXCHANGE 1990s!
I have had all my answers up to now.
In real life?? I don’t wear pajama
March 1st, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Ania,
Oh here’s another Darvas box forming – in NA.TO:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NA.TO&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p57477548173
See it?? It had the high price of close to $78, then came down to base at that $74-$76 range for the last couple of weeks – and it looks like it started heading up today – so, it should complete the box tomorrow AND move higher in price after the completion. It’s a rather shallow Darvas box but it is one nonetheless.
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:06 am
Eve,
Re: Darvas box”
What would the maximum duration we should use for this theory. I see in your example you used 3 months, would that be your default?
Thanks
b
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:25 am
Hi Brian,
Oh there’s no maximum duration – it’s just wherever you see such a thing forming on a chart – it could take 1 week to form – it could take 2 – it could take 3 – you’re just looking for the formation of it on a chart so you can take advantage of getting in on it IF you want to. I missed getting in on the RAX one this year BUT I caught the one RAX did last year around this same time in 2011. I noticed it on the chart and I jumped in at $37 – it went up to $41 to complete the box and then went up to $44.50 by end of April – before the markets fell apart in May. So, if you can find them on a chart OR happen to see one, just watch it and see if it forms – then you’ll see it first and know by experience how the darvas box works – so, then when you see it another time, you can take advantage of it if you want to! Google Darvas box and learn more about it – Darvas wrote a book about it (several I believe) – he made many millions using this method back in the 1960′s – the box was thus named after him.
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:37 am
Thanks Eve. More work I gotta do!! Now I know why Lin dosen’t wear PJ’s, she never sleeps!!
b