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Editor’s Note: Be sure to tune in to BNN Television tonight as Don Vialoux is scheduled to appear on ‘Market Call Tonight’ at 7:00 pm EST.
Pre-opening Comments for Friday March 2nd
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down four points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to strength in the U.S. Dollar.
The Canadian Dollar was virtually unchanged after Canada’s fourth quarter real GDP growth was reported in line with expectations. Consensus was 1.8% versus 3.5% in the third quarter. Actual was 1.8%. December GDP growth was slightly better than expected. Consensus was 0.3%. Actual was 0.4%.
National Bank is expected to open higher after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter results.
Royal Bank of Canada is expected to open lower after TD Securities downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold.
Pan American Silver is expected to open higher after Scotia Capital initiated coverage on the stock with an Outperform rating.
Eli Lilly is expected to open lower after JP Morgan downgraded the stock from Neutral to Underweight. Target is $40.
Bombardier is expected to open lower after Societe Generale downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold.
Blackrock is expected to open lower after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral.
Staples is expected to open higher after Caris upgraded the stock from Average to Above Average.
Technical Watch
National Bank of Canada (TSE:NA) – $77.48 Cdn. is expected to open higher after reporting higher than expected fiscal first quarter earnings. The stock has a positive technical profile. Its intermediate uptrend was confirmed yesterday when the stock broke resistance at $78.00. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Strength relative to the TSX Composite Index has been positive since the beginning of December. Seasonal influences currently are positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/clip_image00111.png "clip_image001[1]")
National Bank of Canada (TSE:NA) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image482.png "clip_image002[1]")
Bombardier (TSE:BBD.B) – $4.30 is expected to open lower after Societe Generale downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. The stock’s technical profile turned negative yesterday. Intermediate trend changed from up to down yesterday when the stock broke support at $4.39. The stock remains below its 200 day moving average and fell below its 50 day moving average yesterday. Short term momentum indicators began to trend lower yesterday. Strength relative to the TSX Composite Index has been negative since mid-February. Seasonal influences are negative in March, but turn positive in April. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/clip_image00311.png "clip_image003[1]")
Bombardier, Inc. (TSE:BBD.B) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image459.png "clip_image004[1]")
Blackrock, Inc. (NYSE:BLK) – $198.50 is expected to open lower after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the end of October. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image005[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/clip_image00511.png "clip_image005[1]")
Mark Leibovit’s Daily Gold Comment
More information on Mark’s services is available at
http://www.vrtrader.com/login/index.asp
GOLD – ACTION ALERT – BUY (And Take Delivery of the Physical Metals)
Metals rebounded yesterday and it is beginning to appear that Wednesday’s ‘smackdown’ in gold and silver was a central bank operation. Hugo Salinas Price, president of the Mexican Civic Association for Silver, told King World News yesterday that the smashing of the gold price was a central bank operation that should not deter anyone from continuing to acquire the monetary metals. Salinas Price says: "If I saw the price declining little by little, day after day, that would be a worrisome signal. That would mean the market is not eager to acquire more gold or silver, but that’s not the case. … When I see that kind of collapse in gold, I know it’s not the natural market doing that. Nobody getting rid of their gold and silver is going to dispose of it in that manner. They are going to do it little by little. This seller was definitely not interested in losses. What they were interested in was suppressing the price."
This doesn’t mean they are done with their dirty work, but we need to focus on both the seasonal patterns this time and year along with the technical patterns. For now, we held support during the ‘smackdown’ which is a positive as we shook up traders (myself included). This is also a positive. We declined 106 dollars in gold and rallied back 41 dollars. Halfway back would have been 53 dollars. Silver declined $3.94 and rallied back $2.08, more than halfway back. Now the burden of proof is on the bulls in coming sessions following the orchestrated ‘Key Reversal’ and Negative Leibovit Volume Reversals that formed. If it indeed, it was ‘flash-crash’ type scenario, this is even more reason to be bullish.
I am in the camp that any washout (including this one) is a buying opportunity, so I remain on my BUY signal. That said, picking the exact bottom of such events is more of an art than a science – so I cannot provide you a precise downside target for this correction. Indeed, I did speculate yesterday that could have seen the lows. If you believe as I do that silver is headed into triple digits (maybe high triple digits) and gold could see $11,000 an ounce in the current decade, any washout is an opportunity to do some buying. If everyone in the sound o f my voice both in this newsletter and as a result of radio or television interviews would go out and simply buy a few ounces of silver and demand physical delivery, we could very likely break the back of JP Morgan and others who are running are actively engaged in protecting their short positions and depressing the physical market. They will ultimately lose, but let’s try and expedite the process. Jaime Dimon is better suited working for Vladimir Putin than for a U.S. bank.
Interesting Charts
The Dow Jones Industrial Average is meandering above and below the 13,000 level with little momentum one way or the other.
Nice breakout by the TSX Financial Services Index on better than expected quarterly reports from Royal Bank and Toronto Dominion Bank!
Chinese ETFs and related closed end funds are responding to encouraging economic news from China. Following is a chart on a closed end fund with a history of tracking the Shanghai Composite Index.
The Euro is showing technical signs of rolling over (Sell on news?)
Updates on sectors and equities with positive seasonality
Gasoline prices spiked following news of a 1.6 million barrel fall in U.S. inventories last week.
Canadian equities in U.S. Dollars are benefitting from strength in the TSX Composite and strength in the Canadian Dollar.
Nice breakout by the Canadian Dollar this week!
Despite volatility this week, silver continues to outperform the S&P 500 Index
Ditto for Platinum!
Canadian lumber stocks continue to outperform the TSX Composite Index.
The Shanghai Composite Index continues to outperform the S&P 500 Index.
Ditto for the Nikkei Average!
Energy equities and related ETFs on both sides of the border continue to outperform. The TSX Energy Index recently completed a reverse head and shoulders pattern.
The Oil Services sector and related ETFs are about to complete a bullish reverse head and shoulders pattern. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Ditto for the S&P/TSX Metals and Mining Index and its related ETFs!
Eric Wheatley’s Weekly Listed Options Column
Preamble: Last week, I perused the comments section of this site for the first time since October (I had stopped looking when I noticed no one was writing about me. Efficiency, thy name is narcissism). I noticed that one of the apparent alpha-posters, a gentleman who goes by the name of “tony”, hypothesised that I had changed my style due to one of one of his earlier comments about beer (see #19). Being a curious masochist, I went back and found the comment in question (see #99).
To tony: a) thanks for reading and recommending my ramblings, b) no I haven’t consciously changed my style but I’m glad you think that my silliness has become more interesting to you and c) I had seen something previously which I was reminded of on reading your comment. Please take this as the playful jab it was intended to be and don’t flame me. I’m quite a sensitive and fragile waif.
*****************
Good morning,
I have a rather happy announcement to make which will be of little-to-no interest to anyone reading this: I have completed the required examinations to hold the designation of Chartered Investment Manager and as of this week, I am legally allowed to put another three-letter abbreviation after my name at the end of this commentary.
*Holds for applause*
And now for something completely options-related.
I’ve just finished writing the first draft of the J.C. Hood Investment Counsel Inc. Options Guide. In it, we cover at length the most important and fundamental concepts and uses of options as they relate to investors. We also discuss cavemen, zombies and $250 napkins. Stay tuned for the official launch date.
As I was writing the guide, I was reminded of an oft-posed question from back when I gave seminars on the subject. One of the most basic uses of options is the purchase of a put as an insurance policy on one’s holdings. Many people, upon hearing that you can eliminate all risk of loss from a portfolio perk up and ask why they shouldn’t do this all the time.
The answer is both simple and pretty complex. First off, paying out money to protect money should, intuitively, strike most people as being counter-productive. In the guide, I went to lengths to explain the basics of hedging, but here I will stick to the principle of insurance and how it applies to options.
Futures can be used to hedge off a string of counterparties’ risks. The oft-used example of the farmer, the miller and the baker remains relevant. The baker can hedge off his exposure to fluctuations in the price of flour by signing a contract with the miller in the Spring, by which a specific quantity of a specific grade of flour will be delivered in the Autumn for a specific price which is amenable to both parties. Similarly, the farmer can sign a contract with the miller ensuring that the latter gets the desired quantity of wheat for a price which ensures a profit to both parties.
Futures are therefore great for hedging off price risk. The only risk left in this particular chain is called first-order risk. You will probably have figured out that the baker’s risk is fully hedged. So is the miller’s (they’ll both receive that which they need at a reasonable price). The farmer however has to deliver his wheat in the fall no matter what. If his crops get wiped out, he will have to find wheat elsewhere and pay a heavy premium in order to fulfil his obligation to the miller. This is the first-order risk – the risk at the bottom of the chain (some people will recognise the potential for the use here of the wholly inappropriate three-word expression which ends with “rolls downhill”). The only way to hedge off first-order risk efficiently is the use of insurance.
An insurer pools the first-order risks of disparate people (in this example, farmers) and is able to spread its exposure across various geographical areas or economic activities. Everyone shares each other’s risks and the farmer is ensured of at least earning a living wage from his labour.
In the preceding example, insurance is an efficient hedging vehicle because it spreads risk out –not everyone will suffer damages at any given time, so the insurance premium will be the total cost of claims divided by the number of policies outstanding (plus the operating costs and proft of the insurer, of course) – which lowers each individual’s cost basis. While options are very often compared to insurance policies (and there ARE significant similarities), they do not have this risk-spreading component.
Options are priced to compensate the option’s seller for profits foregone by taking the position. A consistent covered call seller wants to get AT LEAST the aggregate amount of profits foregone, otherwise he or she would not be interested in selling the calls. The same thing works for puts: if you sell a put rather than purchase shares, you are taking on an opportunity cost should the stock’s price rise. The premium taken in must at least compensate the put seller for this cost.
Essentially, a put works like an insurance policy, but where a single farmer is an insurance company’s sole client. The insurer would spread the farmer’s lifetime risk out and the premiums would reflect the farmer’s average annual claim. There would be no significant advantage to it because there is no risk reduction other than smoothing a lifetime’s losses.
In conclusion, buying puts to keep your portfolio constantly insured is not effective. It is perfectly rational to buy puts to insure yourself against punctual risks if you are constrained and cannot sell your shares. Over the long term however, you’re simply giving away ALL of your returns to the put seller to go along with the risk.
Cheers,
Éric Wheatley, MBA, CIM
Options Analyst, J.C. Hood Investment Counsel Inc.
eric@jchood.com
*****************
Little known fact about John Charles Hood #18
Winnipeg was named after a pirates-only raffle organised by John Charles Hood.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Cameron International Corporation (NYSE:CAM) Seasonal Chart
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Iran-Israel oil shock would deal blow to loonie”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/01/iran-israel-oil-shock-would-deal-blow-to-loonie/
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC March 1st 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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March 2nd, 2012 at 4:27 am
Do you know why there is a divergence in the relationship that has occurred in the past week between hvu.to and tvix?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVU.TO:TVIX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p37013665526
Thanks
March 2nd, 2012 at 9:34 am
Libby,
If you have not already seen it look up”Countdown to Market Peak has begun.”by Chris Puplova
March 2nd, 2012 at 9:48 am
I shorted CP at the opening.. so far so good.
March 2nd, 2012 at 9:56 am
Hi Ray-K,
Are you thinking of playing UCO?
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:00 am
Agreed that there are too many big experts following Gold & Silver and all have their own views. Also interesting to read from many of these experts that they at times follow the price movements and then at times go back to their theories about ‘invisible hand’ or ‘phantom traders’ or various conspiracies and don’t give a damn about the technicals/price movements.
Not critisizing anyone as all are entitled to have as many views as they want…and switch back & forth!
Here is one from Peter Brandt, I often like to listen to.
http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/silver:-second-highest-weekly-volume-since-the-april-top.-what-does-it-mean%20-115743
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:09 am
Covered CP at $75.54.
I think volatility will pick up towards the end of the day.. only makes sense going into the weekend after yet another strong week.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:10 am
Slava,
Read your trades this & past week and the self analysis you did -neutral as always- on your own style, trading, weakness & strength. Congrats on that behavioural analysis as well as keeping the a/c of your winners & losers.
If you’re proving to yourself as a short term trader than so be it, nothing wrong. Money made is money made. With shorter term trades one has to be swift enough to detect changes in the market & NOT getting married to his/her own views. Wayne & Ray Kitchener have been doiing it consistently and I’m sure many more do it as well.
Just write it down on the wall as we all, as human being, have habit of falling out of our strength & go back to weakness at some point of time.
Pros excel at doing what they do the best.
Cheers to you!
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:12 am
Hi grand master (gmsa). Good article. I’m neutral on silver at this point, but one cannot ignore Brandt’s view. If you are going to short SLW, go small. With earnings coming out in a few weeks, it will be interesting to see what happens with the stock. We could see a good run either way. My guess is that we would see a decline in SLW so that if (when!) they beat the consensus, the shares will gap up.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:15 am
Ron/AB
Ray is golfing down in Florida for the week.
I was in SCO at the open (32.23)target hit at 32.73. Out.
May re-enter UCO on a bounce here.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:15 am
Eve, Ania
NA.to
Last week there was activity in the 78$ range on the option calls.
and it did just that tagged and falling.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:22 am
Morning all,
@ Paul – thanks for your reply yesterday re: PSN.TO. Yes i have also heard on BNN that someone else can enter their space. Although that will take a few years.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:22 am
Slava,
Try ADVFN.com it has real time cnd streamer and charts, and it is free. It has been working great for me.
Hope this helps!
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:22 am
Wayne,
Thanks for letting me know. BTW, thanks also for this day trading approach with Oil. I’ve only been trying it for a few months but am getting better. Greatly appreciated!!
I’m considering playing the bounce here as well.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:22 am
NTR
gmsa, thank you for the compliment
I am trying to become more consistent. My family and friends do not understand my interest in the markets.. I can be dead tired after a long day and spend the rest of the night reading articles on barrons, etc. I suppose this is smth I’m really passionante about. I really enjoy it and find the inner workings of the markets truly fascinating (and also very frustrating at times as I try to “understand and justify” certain moves instead of just accepting them).
And then, of course, I’m also chasing that elusive dream of being able to make a living out of this.. probably will never happen. I’d love the idea of living anywhere in the world and be able to trade.. how cool would that be? A dream.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:23 am
Slava
you need to look at the advfn website for level 3 will help you spot trend changes and since you want to be a daytrader and shorting is your thing you would greatly benefit from it once you understand how it works just by looking at the buy and sell volume you should get the hang of it and with the buy indicator well it will be more visual
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:25 am
Ron/AB
Watch the 107.94 level. My trigger for UCO entry.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:26 am
dd and tony, thanks for pointing me to advfn website.. I’ll take a look on the weekend.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:26 am
Michael, please let us know if you’ll be buying our volatility friend.. in hopes of the Friday bounce.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:27 am
Wayne, how are things in Europe? I miss Europe so much.. first Cancun on March 28th and then perhaps Europe in June for me.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:28 am
DD
How was your vacation?
Are your studies coming along?
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:29 am
SNC on the move.. it was upgraded today by Macquarie wealth. I’m sure the big boys have known about this since yesterday morning when they started accumulating at $37+.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:30 am
Michael,
Thanks. As for SLW (US) it’s in a rising channel since late dec. and since this next one is going to be my final battle with it, trying to be very cautious. Scalping, may be, I could be successful at but looking for a bigger $$$$ gain.
And you’re the SLW as well as the swing trade master!
So appreciate your input. One positive with SLW from short angle is that street is very much enthu. about it so don’t know how many more can be on the wagon. But then again, quarterly results could give them all a chance to jack up the target price. And that momo can give me a final defeat, that I’m not prepared for this time.
May be I will consider the shorting from options front…as I am kind of understanding a bit more than B4.
Of course thanks to very educational & informative analysis by our Options Host (drum roll) Master Rol Lew!
.
)away from the daily market noise.
Rol Lew,
Just to let you know I’ve been copying your notes/comments on options and looking forward to reading it during this weekend with calm mind (if it’s ever possible with human being
Many thanks.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:30 am
Wayne, can you plesae say hi to Ron/BC from me? I really miss him (well, I really miss communicating with him on here
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:33 am
#1
Roger, Credit Suisse suspended creation of new units for TVIX few days ago – that’s why it is trading at premium right now.
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Credit-Suisse-Temporarily-prnews-3084612990.html
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:33 am
Wayne,
Will do. Do you ever watch the USD for a trigger or just the oil price?
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:34 am
Til,
Why would it take so long to make tanks?Nothing realy to difficult to make.Rent one and copy making small modifications.
I just caught the end of a conversation on BNN yesterday that somebody else was going to do this possibly.The speaker was stating he was just waiting for confermation from the company,unfortunitly I did not hear the name of company.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:37 am
I don’t know how significant this is…………there was this news released on Jan 29th that people in Beijing bought 1500 kg gold (in jewelry form) during the Chinese New Year week off (Jan 21 – 28th) from 2 big department stores (Caibai and Guohua) in Beijing. This was in one week and 2 stores in Beijing (these 2 stores have the biggest jewelry sections). Should this make me bullish on gold or not? Is that a lot of gold in the world market of gold?
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:37 am
tony, I read last night that someone bought a large volume of puts on TD.. I believe you mentioned smth about that as well. Do you happen to remember the details?
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:38 am
Tony,
Vacation was great, spent some time with my daughter and her kids, great feeling! Thanks for asking. I think I am getting the hang of it, but, I still need time. Good thing I sold bbd too soon eh. I would have quit if I had been holding it.:(
But ya, I have read mostly about daytrading but I don’t wanna be glued to the computer all day. I like your stadegy and I think I am getting the hang of it, just need to practice, practice, practice.
Hope your trades have been good, making the money. Are you still interested in tck.b?
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:40 am
Hi Slava. Our volatility friend doesn’t seem to want to do anything today. It had a tiny pop this morn, but looks like the market is complacent. I probably won’t be trading it until late next week at earliest. Volatility should pick up by next Friday or the following Monday because of options expiry.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:41 am
Slava,
It was cool and damp in Paris – but Paris is lovely in the rain (aka Midnight in Paris). Lots of wine and cheese – phenomenal dinner at Maxim’s – not far from my friend’s apt.
Azores was amazing. Swam in the thermal springs at Lagoa do Fogo – cheap food, cheap wine ( best wine was 5 euros!!!). We hiked up into volcanoes – lush vegetation! We had an apartment in the centre of Ponta Delgada next to a cathedral – bells chimed every hour. Dinner for 4 including wine and tips – 68 Euros!!
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:43 am
Slava
SNC.to
after the big debacle didn’t SNC should see 44$ ? but nobody believed me wonder why?
tony Says:
February 29th, 2012 at 10:22 am
Slava
three subjects for you to answer…
SNC going to 44$ so are you in for the ride at 37?
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:43 am
Wayne, wow.. now this is exactly what I’m talking about.. Joie de vivre, dolce vita
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:45 am
Ron/AB,
I tracked the USD for a couple of months – no appreciable signals. I watch Oil only. I have trigger levels set on the chart – still no penetration of 107.94.
You can go cross-eyed watching too many charts.
Slava,
I was talking to him last night – I’ll pass on your “hello”.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:45 am
I missed HGU trade his morning.. oh well.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:50 am
Wayne, great, thanks. Can you please ask him if there is a chance he’d like to keep in touch with me sometimes via email? By the way, I’ll send you my new email address on the weekend.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:51 am
Slava
yes I mentionned TD in recent days they were trading the puts 10000 put contracts at 76 and another 10000 contracts at 80 I think it was.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:52 am
Hi Wayne. Welcome back. I’m glad that you solved the European problems over those phenomenal dinners. We should send you off to the Middle East. It’s amazing what can be accomplished over a good bottle of (cheap) wine!
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:54 am
Tony, Osisko chart looks very encouraging now. I still own 1,000 shares but thinking of adding more.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:55 am
Hey Lin,
you mentioned yesterday night: 4 computers & 7 screens you’ve in your home office.
Woah…how often do you go see the opthalmologist?
You must have got good eyes, as for me 3 screens are way too much. Any more I add, I will definately go blind!
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:00 am
Wayne,
I hear you re. too many charts – yikes. I swing trade as well so I tend to only day trade at key times like 10:00 and 10:30 and maybe 12:00 and 2:00 and only when there is an obvious setup. I just can’t focus on too much at once.
Your trip sounds great. My wife and I love Paris, the last time was a year ago for her birthday.
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:01 am
DD
As you know I wanted TCk but price never hit my target before pushing higher, so I resigned on it
I saw another miner hudbay my entry point was the 200MA but for an unknown reason I took it off cause something scared me of the miners and my doubts were correct. this week miners got slaughetered I posted my fears
so now I’m looking at another one ivn if you compare W%R and MACD MA, IVN is trending higher as for HBM is trending lower.
so I rather play the winner then the loser.
ivn has 1$ upside while hbm has .50 downside risk for the time being.
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:02 am
Slava
Didn’t I give you 14$ target on OSK.to through the options?
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:03 am
tony, yes you did.. I wish you could manage my money!
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:04 am
Slava
OSK needs to break above 200MA for it to tag 14$ see how options can easily give your targets.
look at bbd.b earlier this week they were trading bbd 5.50 calls, and yesterday they changed their view and traded 4$ puts. and where is bbd.b right now at 4.23
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:05 am
SNC stalled around $40.55 range.. hmm, I’m wondering which way it will break?
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:07 am
Morning, Rami/AB
)
How that feel?? 1.2 buck gain on SNDK!! When U come to C buy us bigger dinner at CMG.
Re, SINA. you already know how to do it. So save me time for input now..
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:10 am
bbd.b is looking quite oversold. I see from the chart that it tends to really respect the lower keltner channel with setting 3. It’s almost at that point right now. Anyone buying bbd.b today at $4.21?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBD/B.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p96463966367
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:12 am
Lin, “When U come to C buy us bigger dinner at CMG. )”
…lol.. you are too funny!
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:12 am
gmsa,
The opthalmologist is my freind.. well, she tells my eye so far so good. Be aware that COG, I posted it for yesterday.
I have four screens, my hubby has three, he uauslly down his trade about now and flying his plane.
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:16 am
Wynne, greeting
Would you please tell Ron/BC drop by ? Thanks!
I have followed USD for last 20 years. I find that USD up, market down, so last year you were at wrong boat.
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:18 am
Tony,
SNC is a tempting swing trade to fill the gap it’s just that I have seen many bad outcomes with companies that have had to re-state their finances so this makes me hesitant. Are you in?
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:19 am
Slava,
So when I come to V we will have dinner at CMG,
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:21 am
Lululemon is driving me crazy! Why can’t I take a loss on my short position.. just can’t hit the buy button, it’s killing me.
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:22 am
If anyone is interested, I gave really good info last night on the board to Slava, Ania, and CJ – on dollar gains and the Darvas box – RAX today did a $3 gain from yesterday’s close – it is closing the Darvas box – just like I wrote last night that it would! NA.TO today also closed its Darvas box as I wrote last night that it would.
So, if interested, just some things to read from last night’s board as these things are useful in trading.
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:23 am
Brain,eh?
I heard many people they make few hundreds from market and still in them pajama, I don’t. That is what I mean.!
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:24 am
Slava
buy bbd.b.to above 4$ probably 60% here and put a bid at 4.05 4.10 for the rest and after that you are in you put a 4% stop loss
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:26 am
Michael,
VNTR
LOL If only it was THAT easy. Perhaps a couple of cases of Molson’s Golden would do it!
Ron/AB
I spent some time in Paris when I was studying in Belgium years ago. I’ve been back several times – problem is that everywhere you go – massive crowds!!! But, who’s complaining.
BTW – gas in the Azores was at 133.00 euros per litre. When I returned to Canada – price in Toronto was 1.29 per litre!!
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:28 am
Hi Slava and Ron/AB. I took a half position in BBD this morn. Yesterday Ron/AB mentioned $4.06 (?) as lower pivot support, but it has changed. There is a gap at $4.05 that could close, but every time over the last six months it has poked through the bottom of the Keltner, it has bounced back:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BBD/B.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p68637586813
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:31 am
Lin, re “I heard many people they make few hundreds from market and still in them pajama, I don’t. That is what I mean.!”
Sometimes I wear nothing at all – just lay on the couch with my laptop and look our at the magnificent views of the water and the mountains from the 21st floor. My best trading takes place that way.(but I already mentioned it before..lol)
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:37 am
Slava…
I remember trading the “bomber” (BBD.B) back in 2001 when it was trading around $ 24.00!
Ron/AB
Done for the day. Oil is ranging between 107.94 and 107.07 – no momo.
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:39 am
PS to my post 55:
i LOOOOOOVE TA!!!!! It is so amazing!!!! and so ACCURATE – well, for the MAJORITY of the time
e.
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:39 am
Slava. hhahahahah, Be ware we are trading, NTR
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:39 am
Ron/AB
I hear you loud and clear, but they wouldn’t be trading options for the past 2 weeks or so if the Cdn HFs didn’t believe this one is worth north of 40. believe me I know what I’m talking about
recall when a russian company made a deal with Uranium One, every analyst on the bnn were saying not to touch UUU.to I had just bought it because back in december they were trading the 6$ calls price was 3$ so as A fool I listened to the talking heads whiloe they continued their spending money in the option pits me as a fool sold it took a loss 10% loss because they made sure we were all out before they made a run at it on the expiration price was below 3 after but by the end of the year price was well above my purchase price and went on not to 6 but shy of 7$
while HFs comment are bad or good we retail investors follow the lead they give us when we shouldn’t as they are pilling in at better price.
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:40 am
Tony,
Looked at ivn. Looking good, like you said WR and macd moving higher, trading over the 50(17.76). So your target is when it hits the 150(19.01) and if it keeps running it may hit the 200(20.21). Support would be at the 50ma and RS1 at 150, RS2 at 200. Is this correct?
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:40 am
Slava,
Are you trading naked puts – OR – naked calls??? Inquiring minds need to know!@!
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:42 am
Re market, by read tape, I have seen some weakness unfold on the way, may be start today , or next week, How big pull back I don’t know as far as 130 zone on spy hold…
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:45 am
So, bought TLT 170 Calls to hedge.
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:45 am
Lin, your post 67 is music to my ears..
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:46 am
Wayne, “nakes anything” tends to get person in trouble, right?
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:46 am
..lol I meant “naked anything”
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:47 am
Wayne ntr
Thanks, I haven’t thought about that…
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:47 am
Eve, yes, I was looking at RAX this norning – very impressive on your part.
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:55 am
Hi Slava and others. Are you having problems with BMO InvestorLine’s streaming quotes? Thanks.
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:59 am
Ania – plus to anyone else who may be interested in this kind of info on commodities and their respective stocks:
Recall I told you the other day (and To Ana too) that “stocks lead commodities” – and I told you yesterday that BHI isn’t acting normally yesterday for oil being up as much as it was – same with HAL and SU I wrote yesterday – well, the fact that these oil stocks were not up by very much when oil was up by $1.80, this told us that oil would most likely be coming down today – and it has! The only wrench yesterday was that SLB was up by over $1.00 – and that is a normal price for it to be up by, when oil is up by over $1.50 – so, I wasn’t sure then for 100% IF oil would be down for today due to what SLB was doing yesterday and due too to what HFC was doing yesterday (was up by over $1 for most of the day) – BUT by looking at SU, HAL, and BHI yesterday, I had a suspiscion that oil would be down.
The same thing too for the copper stocks yesterday of IMN and TCK.B – BOTH were down but yet copper was UP – so, what gives with that?? well, that was telling us that “most likely”, copper today would be down – and it is! Now, looking today at IMN, it is UP – yet TCK.B is down – so, what is that telling us?? well, wait til end of day to see where these stocks are at that point – that will give greater insight as to what copper will do on Monday. FM is really the only copper stock i know of that more often than not, just trades with the price of copper – it doesn’t seem to LEAD the price of copper – so, if copper is up on the day, then usually so is FM – if copper is down, then so “usually” is FM down too! It rarely leads the commodity – last year though I did see it lead at times – so, that’s not 100% – BUT, it “seems” that more often than not, it doesn’t lead the copper price – it instead simply follows whatever copper is doing on the day.
Similarly with silver price yesterday – it was up by over 2% (over $1) – yet SLW closed up by only 38 cents – not a lot of a gain with silver price being up by so much – thus, SLW was telling us that “more likely than not”, silver would be down today – and it is.
So, when you see the commodity up A LOT on the day BUT their respective stock is only up by just a bit OR in fact, down in price on the day, then look for the commodity for the next day, to be down – except of course with FM – don’t look to it for “guidance” on the copper price – for the most part that is – as it will usually just do whatever copper is doing on the day.
Eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Wayne,
I’ve moved on from the oil trade for now as well. Thanks.
So you must know people in Belgium and Paris, that would be great. I have been four times in Paris but it was my wife’s first. Stayed in the 7th in a nice appartment. I have always went early spring or mid-fall to avoid crowds. Never been to the Azores, it sounds amazing.
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:04 pm
The US Dollar
Comments Please,
I’m totally in CDN.dollar and think I need US for better trading ops.
is this a good time for switching or wait for CDN.$ to go up more
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Michael,
BMO`s streamer is down. Trading in the dark! I don`t know what the problem is.
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:11 pm
DD
yes actual Resistance is 150MA if breaks through watch for 200MA so low risk high reward as we both know where to stop
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Hi Michael,
Sorry about that 4.06 pivot area. I don’t know what I was looking at, it could have been the intraday S2 pivot yesterday. Today the intraday S2 pivot is 4.13. I may take a partial position today as well.
I mentioned EFL.to. It is a low volume stock but I like for a small position if it can get closer to 0.82. It broke it’s long term downtrend line with good volume and is now trying to retest it. If it does, that will be a good entry.
Wayne has me day dreaming about travelling again – lol. I need to get back to business.
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Tony,
Thanks for the reassurance.
Lin stated we may be in for a pull back. Will this not effect ivn?
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Merci Martine. I even tried launching in French (which is in English?), and the new streamer (which I hate). Nothing works…c’est domage!
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:27 pm
Sold last pieace DECK 75 C, bought 90 April C.
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Hi Ron/AB. I’m pretty sure that you weren’t imagining the $4.06 yesterday on BBD, since I recall that it was fairly close to the $4.05 gap that I was seeing. As for EFL, it’s a bit too small cap for me.
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:36 pm
dd,
I may wrong, but hay, if I am wrong I just get out, and I will never fear to pull the triger for other trades..
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Michael,
It looks BMO is back in business. It is now working.
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Tony,
Thanks for the option info re SNC, I may take another look at this one. I am only intereted in good value stocks this close to a potential market correction.
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:44 pm
Lin,
The Deck April 90 call was trading at .50 on Wednesday. Now trading at 1.40. Almost 3x your $$$’s in 3 days. Do you have a target price? Where’s your stop?
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Lin, I understand, thank you!
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Question I have been meaning to ask for a long time.
If you buy a stock say at $20 and put a stop loss at @19, and the stock falls to $15. What happens to your stop loss, does it get triggered at $15?
TIA
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Wayne
I like to read what do you see on DECK, please? Thanks.
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Lin,
Here it is:
http://www.cboe.com/DelayedQuote/DQBeta.aspx
March 2nd, 2012 at 12:58 pm
DD,
Re.99
If you do not set up a stop limit, it will become a market order and be sold at the market price. It is rarely a win situation for you since you are out at the worse price unless it continues to keep going down. However, normally, it bounces back at least partially. You are almost always better off setting a limit which will not trigger the order if it goes below that price. You can check your discount trading provider or google it for further information, but this is really important to understand.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:02 pm
Slava:
Can ‘t really believe you @ post no.60
2nd para.- send us some pic. As a proof
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Martine,
I didn’t know there were 2 different types of Stop losses.
I appreciate your response.
I want to start trading but would like to fully understand all I can before I get in again.
Thanks
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Lin,
I see that it brought up the CBOE home page.
1. Enter “Deck” in ‘Get Quote’.
2. Hit the “Options Chain” tab
3. Change Expiration to April 2012. Hit “View Chain”.
4. Scroll down to the 90 call. Hit the April 90 call symbol (blue code at extreme left)
5. Hit the “Advanced Chart” tab.
6. Change the time frame to 1 week. Make sure that you have the OHLC function.
You can see the trades over the past week.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Okay, back at the computer now.. I see I covered CP way too early
Volatility is picking up.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:09 pm
dd
heres the thing stop loss don’t get triggered if price opens below your stop loss until price moves back up to your trigger.
SNC is a great example, if you look at the charts MACD H was moving higher so if you had bought it at 47 with a stop loss at 44.50 since it opened lower you would have not been triggered would have to wait for price to cross 44.50 before being triggered.
now if you had bought a put at 44.50 on tuesday you could have called your broker after SNC took a nose dive. and exercise your right and they would be obligated to fix at 44.50 take the money the 44.5 and buy it back at 37 if you had decided to do so.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Wayne
Thanks for the links. I made money on 75 Call, for 90 call that is next possible target price, I will see what happened. Thanks.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:10 pm
DD:
Further to what martine wrote, it really depends how it falls from 20to 15.
Gap down at 15 scenario will kick you out at market price when it opens at 15 as your stop loss was set @19.
If it is slow motion decline through out the day or week then once it touches 19 it will become market sell order
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Michael,
EFL is not for everyone, I know. It’s not even my type either but I have a soft spot because I made money with it in the past. Especially with oil so high and the liklihood of green technologies surfacing as a headline topic the closer we get to the US election. It moves very hard and fast once it starts.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=EFL.TO&p=M&b=9&g=0&id=p14412309878&a=259478165
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Lin
did you buy 205 contracts of deck?
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Hi Eve,
Great information posted to Slava, CJ, and to me. I see what you mean by darvas box by looking at the charts for RAX, NA.to, and CYOU. Great technical indicators to add to my tool box.
Have a great Day, Ania
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:18 pm
Wayne.
Thanks for the link and instructions. I don’t use this web often.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:20 pm
SPX right now is at its 9 day MA of 1366 – IF that can’t hold, then look for SPX to go to mid keltner at 1354 right now.
I haven’t read the board today – so, if anyone has messaged me, i haven’t read your post – I’ll read the board later – and will reply to posts during the weekend.
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:20 pm
Tony
5 contracts means when price hit 90, I can buy stocks at 90 for 500 shares DECK.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:20 pm
Ania,
I told you that IF BHI went below $50, that it would be headed then to $47 as support. So, look for it to head there.
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Ron/AB
I would be very careful, classifying SNC as a good value stock.
They have delayed their year end financial statements.
Wait until they have found out what where $35 Million has gone.
Sorry tony, I think that the results could trigger some funds to pull out of this company, when that happens it could be a water fall.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Wayne, what do you see DECK on this price action.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Tony, if price can’t hit 90, it may worthless.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Here is the link,
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/02/29/snc-brass-hire-own-counsel-following-gaddafi-connection-claims/
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Oil:
Oil had a double top yesterday when it hit $110 and then came down from there. This was ALSO an “M” formation too – so, IF the M gets completed, then look for oil to get back to between $100 and $102.50 where both these levels have support pivot points AROUND those price points AND would complete the “M” IF oil goes to S1 of AROUND $100 (S1 is actually $99.14).
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Ana,
Re. SNC
I share your concern about the company. I wrote about it a few days ago. Their accounting practices have always been questionable. Also, if you mix with the wrong crowd, I do not think government contracts will pour in your direction. Careful there! At least, wait until there is clear sky on the horizon. It looks murky for now.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Hi Ana,
I’m not saying that SNC is a good value. I’m hesitant about the company for the same reasons as you have stated. If one only looked at the technicals, there is a potential swing trade to the 9ma which would fill the gap…But because of the unknown’s regarding the company, it is tough for me to enter this trade. So i hear you, thanks.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Oh PS to my post 112 on oil:
there’s a pivot point too for oil at $104.85 – that’s the central pivot. So, oil “could” bounce off from there.
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:33 pm
Eve,
Great call for the oil sector RAX. It made a move of $3.00, I wish I bought RAZ last night.
I am trying to be patient and get to know the stocks first before we start dating, I meant trading.
Cheers, Ania
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:33 pm
Tony, this trades, I don’t expect price move like what it did yeasterday, and internal of market if pull back could impact my trades. So I took profit on last pieace, I made about 3000, now paid about 650 for 5 contract 90 Calls.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Ana
Sorry, you asked me about oil and transportation. I did view it,it shows weakness. But I don’t follow it. So I can’t comments on it. How do you think?
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:42 pm
dd, re stop loss would you please give a stock I will show you.
I don’t use stop loss at intraday.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Eve,
Thank you for the update on Oil. Yes, yesterday, when there was a false rumour, crude rose to $110.56 and then dropped very quickly down to $108.56 in two hours, you know traders were saying “what are we doing up here?”
Just another reminder that HOU and HOD are day trading vehicles and once you see the pattern changing, ring the register.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:47 pm
Ron/AB,
Re. SNC
You could do like Slava and just daytrade it for now. It could be a wild ride. The shortsellers are probably all over this one.
I missed my gold and oil trade today. My streamer was down. That is too bad since they were easy trades today. Just a slow slide without too many bounces along the way. It is rarely this way. However, am not about to chase it. We will see how the day ends.I will wait till next week and see if we contine to correct.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:47 pm
Lin
from what I understand you bought the 90$ strike if it moves higher you will be selling never wanting to own the stock.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Lin: I see DECK trending down in a couple of days.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Tony
It pends, and again IF both internal and stock strong, I will. Just like I have done with SHLD, end bought the stocks. IF not I may just sell if I can, It may be worthless.
March 2nd, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Ana,
When you daytrade HOD.TO and HOU.TO, do you set up stop limits? I try to protect my downside but it seems that I often get kicked out and it continues in the right direction. Each time I did not set it up, it went against me big time. This is what happened to HGD.TO yesterday. I had no stop loss and it went against me. I held it overnight which could have been ill-advised, but it worked out. However, I set up my stop loss at $4.54 to protect what I had recovered and I got hit just before it took off. I would have reentered but my streamer was down and I decided that maybe, just maybe, the Gods were trying to tell me something!! Not really! Just kidding! Would you have some advice in that regard as it is getting some kind of frustrating?
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:01 pm
still08
I have prepare for that.
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Lin,
I have never traded Deck. But, buying an option so close to expiry is a very risky venture. A very negative Theta, or time decay works against you. I usually go out a minimum of 90 days. Time decay is extreme during the final 30 days – there is also the “weekend effect” where time decay expands over the weekend prior to expiry. I read an analysis about that several months ago.
You are just over $ 10.00 out of the money – but, I noticed the gap (88 – 80) – so hopefully if that gets filled, you could see 90 – there is also a whopping 1700 contract open at this price level – so you are with the majority.
When did you buy the 75 call??
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Wayne
I bought at yesterday, at 5.40.
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Salut Martine,
Re SNC, I agree, if I play this one it probably will be as a day trade for all of the reasons discussed.
I am sitting on lots of cash now and mostly day trading as the markets could correct at anytime. However, as stocks start to fall, I’m looking to re-build partial positions in the ones that i like for swing trading like BBD.B.
I’m also keeping an eye on those inverse ETF’s to swing trade them during a market correction as i don’t short stocks per se.
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:14 pm
still 08. how are your trading going?
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Wayne
Thank you very much for teaching, I am very appreciate.
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Editor’s Note: Be sure to tune in to BNN Television tonight as Don Vialoux is scheduled to appear on ‘Market Call Tonight’ at 7:00 pm EST.
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Ron/AB,
Same here. I don`t short either as the idea of unlimited losses is totally unattractive to me. Even if it takes months, which I don’t believe it will, I prefer to be patient at this stage. A correction of some magnitude has to occur at one point of time. As you start building some of your positions, keep us posted. I agree about BBD.B. With the recent correction, it starts being attractive.
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Lin: I’m spending lots of time marking charts. Took some profits. Waiting for some long-term trends. Not a day-trader. TSX appears to be at a cross-roads, some short-term rockiness over the next week, but then will continue up.
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:38 pm
Hi Ron/AB. So did you pick up some BBD? I’m thinking that it could get up to $4.40 by Tuesday so that it will be around the 4-day MA. TCW is dropping to its 4-day MA as well (glad I sold some yesterday), and may pick some up if it drops below $18 (and hits the 9-day MA). As for inverse ETFs, I’ll be looking to play later next week. With the options expiry and the Bradley date (March 16) the following week, I would expect to see some downward movement.
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:41 pm
I’m trying hgu at $12.07.. with a stop loss.
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Lin, Wayne
If you buy an option for .10 and you have 5 contracts, and the price goes up to .15, have you made .05 x 5 contracts or have you made .05 x 5 contracts x 100?
I would like to try option trading but am still learning about them.
Thanks
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Anyone buying hvu for the final hour?
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Larry,
Each contract represents 100 shares.
In this case, your cost is $ 50.00.
If it goes up to .15 – it is now worth $ 75.00.
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:55 pm
I think I hate Kinross as much as I hate lulu.. but for entirely different reasons..lol
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Slava,
You got your HGU fill?
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Wayne, yes.. but the price is stalling.. I’m monitoring carefully. Any advice on hgu?
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Still 08
Glad to hear that :”took Profit” , I have done my income for March. Learning some staffs..
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Michael, good purchase on bbd.b
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Larry,
Start here.
http://www.optionetics.com/
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Hi Michael,
Stepped out for some lunch. Yes i did pick up a little at 4.24 and 4.30. Still only a partial position (less then 1/2 position). It could even get to 4.49 by Tuesday. Good point about the options expiry and Bradley date next week, thanks for reminding me about that.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Slava,
Not a gold trader, but I would go HGD. Have a look at the 5 hour chart, things are much clearer, as to the direction.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:04 pm
I suppose as long as oil stays expensive gold mining companies will continue to lag…
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Slava,
HGU is in a downtrend. Closing near the low of the day is not a good sign. Where’s your stop?
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Larry
Nice try!
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Michael, well, it turns out that hvu would have been a great purchase in the a.m. – from $8.30 to $8.70.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:05 pm
M formed at 1788 and M formed at 1725 & 1720.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:06 pm
It’s rather disappointing that equity markets are so strong and price of gold is so high yet Barrick is still 18% away from its 52-week high.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Larry – $100 less commission.
Watch the bid / ask spread
do not pay more than 10 cents between the bid & ask
for this reason also, stick with higher priced options,
very liquid options say over a dollar to buy.
QQQ options often have a 1 cent spread, SPY also – 1 or 2 cents.
remember also that when you buy a put or a call,
before the day ends, you could be down by 80%,
so, do not bite off more than you can chew.
for this reason, many options traders prefer
to buy in the money options, with lots of time
remaining – more than a month or two, instead
of taking a flyer with buying cheap, illiquid,
far out of the money puts or calls, with just 5 days
to expiration.
When considering a long put or long call, look at the
delta of the option also. This % is “roughly” the probability
of that option expiring in the money. So if the delta is
15% (as it would be for way otm options) then you have
a 15% chance of winning, and an 85% chance of losing.
So, just be careful. “It’s a jungle out there”. You
are trading against the big boys – they give no quarter.
Lots of web sites will give you
much more information.
Just google the terms.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Wayne, just removed the stop.. will probably sell now at 12.03, mental stop at 12.02.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:10 pm
I wrote this last night to Ania on WPRT:
WPRT (but for the next couple of weeks, it will be getting sent to around $43.50 as it did a share offering in the last 2 weeks at that price point – and the share offering closes sometime in March – so, until the share offering closes, it might just stay around that $43.50 price point – it could move up though to like $44 or $44.50 BUT, it seems to then come back down again to that $43.50 price after that – if it goes below $43, then it will be bought and go back up to that $43.50 price – so, that’s why I say that it seems to just want to hang out there until the share offering gets closed).
—————————————————————–
Look at the price action of WPRT TODAY – went to just over $44, then came down to just under $43, then went back up to $44 (so, a $1 gain intraday), and now down at $43.47 – LOL – too funny – honestly – BUT, good info to know as it’s a good way to make money with knowing info like this on a stock
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Wayne, Rol Lew, Lin
Thanks for your help.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:13 pm
I shut my office door and told everyone not to disturb me.. lol.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:14 pm
PS to post 156:
WPRT went to $42.83 and got bought there – then went to $43.88 (on the upper bollinger band on the 5 min chart) and now down to $43.47. It opened at $43 and then went to $44.18 (so, $1 gain there intraday), and then came down to that $42.83…
funny stuff 
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:14 pm
oops —- 75$$
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Larry
Make sure you take profit before it expires.. My great pleasure!
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Not a good day for me.. many of my long positions are down. “They” are trying to manipulate f-g CMG back into the green (like they always do in the final hour).
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:15 pm
154#
Rol Thanks for input. Good teaching..
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Hi Slava. Indeed, HVU has performed well since its low of the morning. I was looking at HGU as well since the US markets looked like they would move up to being flat. We’ll see.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:17 pm
I’m feelig really chocked about missing HVU trade and covering cp short too early.
Trading is such an emotional struggle sometimes..
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Wayne, Nice to talk to you. Have great weekend..
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:17 pm
re RAX:
I wrote about RAX last night to a few people – it’s getting pinned this month (thus far), to $55 – so, IF that doesn’t change by march 17th when options expire, then it should hang around that price this month. Went to $55.65 today – then went down to $54.12 – then back up to $55.20 (so, $1 gain intraday – on top of the $2 gain from opening at $52.45) – then came down again to now being at $54.27. So, that’s a good price to keep in mind this month for RAX is $55. It only trades monthly options – not weeklies.
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Have great weekend everyone. I am offline.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Michael, it looks like hvu in the $8-range is “in play” for now.. we should keep it in mind. Also, the “Friday” phenomena as you mentioned.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:20 pm
HGU is not tracking very accurately.. unless they just withdrew their MER..lol
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Lin, Rol Lew, Wayne
re.#161
why would Lin suggest that?
If one is confident that it will not get exercised, then what’s the point in spending trading commission?
Question as I’m trying to learn.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:26 pm
gmsa
These questions can be answered by broker, belive me these girls or guys are really good at it.
Be ware, COG. Be Ware!!! bye..
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:27 pm
SNC
More news
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/class-action-proposed-against-snc-lavalin/article2356830/
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Lin, have a great weekend and thank you for all of your advice and posting some of your trades this week. I really appreciate it.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Well, I’m out of hgu.. very stressful for $200 profit.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Lin, 周一?
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:35 pm
I wouldn’t buy VIX now.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:36 pm
My pleasure! I hope you make a lot of &&&& so we can go CGM in V
)
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Bought HVU at 8.36 this am. Presently at 8.67. Anyone else
holding this over weekend?
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Martine,
I only set up a “stop limit” order when it is storage reporting for Nat Gas and I have no idea where the price will go. This is different that a “stop loss” and no I do not use a stop loss while trading HOU and HOD. I take profits, though very often. I usually have three to four trades each day with crude oil. I guess I was not that successful with trading stocks. I found success trading oil and now I trade oil in my TFSA for my monthly income and also in my RRSP with usually much larger amounts. I also day trade HVU. I really do not know how traders focus on so many stocks.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:38 pm
Eve
any idea why on a 60min chart hvu 38MA has startedf curling while 18 is not there yet?
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Lin,
re.#172
Lol…reading your reply. Yes, I could always do that but since you suggested it, thought of asking your reasoning behind it.
Thx anyways.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Hi all – just home from T.O. looks like an abysmal day on the markets; I set limit sales on a few things before leaving, but I need not have bothered, everything dropped.
Will read the comments shortly to see what you have all been up to!
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:41 pm
181
eve
38MA is curling up…
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Have you ever seen a larger manipulation than CMG on a daily basis on a small number of shares? How is this allowed?
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Slava,
Look to those stocks I mentioned to you last night – instead of trying to get 20 cents here or there on trades!
Stocks I told you about yesterday:
SINA – up today by $6,
RAX up today by $3,
KORS up today by $3.50 off its low price today,
LNKD, UP today – but had 4 chances today to make over $1 in each intraday move
WPRT – up today by $1 in first hour, then sold off to below $43, then up again by another $1
Look at the “dollars” to make each day in a stock or 2 – not 20 cents here and there on a few different stocks or ETFs.
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:48 pm
David, if I were you I’d take the profit on hvu for now. This thing moves like crazy. Can always buy it back next week.. just my two cents..
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Michael, Martine,
I took profits on BA earlier today. It may be premature as it has not started to break down yet. It’s still riding above the 4ma but it’s coming up to horizontal resistance as well as the 50dma resistance around 27.80. It could easily get to the top of the keltner though. I will wait and see if it can punch through the 50ma.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Ana,
Stop limit, not stop loss, as protection. I guess you are buying and selling at market in order to move quickly. I probably set up the stop limit too tight.
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:54 pm
To the board,
Just out of curiousity, does anyone on the board gain anything by things I write about on here like the dollar gains each day in a stock, the Darvas box, the stocks i give out at times in my posts that are really good to trade… stuff like that. So, does anyone get anything out of my posts? (besides CJ, Ania, Kay, Slava, BJ, Brian eh?).
Please let me know!
thank you!
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Hey Eve, to be honest I don’t follow a single stock on the list which you mentioned in post 186. I’ll have to add them to my watchlist and start following them first. With my luck instead of making $1 per share I’d be losing $2 per share
So I need to get to know them first.
CMG is up again. Is this legal to manipulate a close on the stock like they are doing with CMG every day?
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:57 pm
Ania and CJ,
re COG:
looks like it’s going down to a support point (in the coming short term) around $31.30 area – or even to $30 maybe. So, just wanted to let you both know this as I know you were both looking to buy it at around that price level.
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Slava,
I didn’t think you followed them – that’s the precise reason why I told you about them in the first place! As I know you could easily use them daily to make an easy $1000 or more each day! (THAT’s why I gave them to you) – rather than looking to scalp 20 cents here and there from HGU/ HGD, FM, etc. Yes you have to get to know them first – that’s always the way to do it!
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Slava
MCD is known for their clean washrooms thruout the world, look how well it is doing, maybe CMG is following suit that is why it keeps going up.
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Hi Eve,
I don’t follow the US stocks in #186 but I read all of your posts especially re. the S&P, TSX and USD as well as the cdn stocks you write about. Very much appreciated!!
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:03 pm
Martine,
I buy at a “limit price”, not at “market price”.
I sell at a “limit price”, not at “market price”.
No, “stop limit”.
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:04 pm
Eve,
Also read everything on oil, gold and commodities in general:)
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Slava,
re CMG being manipulated – Slava, ALL the big time stocks in the US are manipulated! You see this EVERY day – that’s how you can get those $1 gains or more each day in a stock – like clockwork!! THAT is of course manipulation as how can a stock go to “exactly” a $1 gain? (within 10 cents here or there) or $3 gain?? or $6 gain (like with SINA today) and then come down in price after that dollar gain has been made – BOTH intraday several times in the day and just once per day too – HOW? It’s just manipulation. It’s ALL manipulation! every single day!!
eve
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Eve
I read especially the TA we both give our insight, just to view your take on it,
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Eve,
You constanly amaze me by your posts.
When I see you post anything about crude oil, nat gas, Hvu, I am beyond happy. I want to thank you for your time, you take to post these and also for the posts.
Yikes, I have to work today and have to run!
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Hi Ron/AB,
Oh my posts with those US stocks mentioned in the posts, weren’t about THOSE stocks – the posts were about making dollar gains EVERY day in a large cap US stock – and I used those stocks just as examples. It happens with MOST US stocks – even our banks traded in the US. It happens on CAT, FDX, GS, V, FCX, DE, etc etc – not just those ones I mentioned. That’s why I wrote the post – to tell everyone about these dollar gains that get done every day in the big stocks in the US – OR momentum stocks – OR highly traded stocks – happens every day. So, that was the reason for my post – so, if you’re not aware of those dollar gains, and are interested in what I wrote about that, then take a look at the posts I wrote yesterday to Slava, and the board last night on how that works each day. It’s good info and strategy to make money daily IF a trader.
Thank you Ron for telling me – I appreciate it greatly!!!
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Lin: Have a wonderful weekend. Wish you alert us when its time to enter shorts and exit. All the best.
Eve: I have been reading your posts and would like to say ‘thank you’. Off the board this week and concentrated on trading. It was a good week in a looong time.
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:13 pm
Ana,
Understood. This is how I do it too. Thanks.
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:13 pm
” ” 161.Lin Says:
March 2nd, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Larry
Make sure you take profit before it expires.. My great pleasure!” ”
………………………………
gmsa – calls and puts are very volatile creatures.
so, once you have a profit, you take it, and do the
what-if’s after. it is NOT like owning stock, where,
if you are wrong, TIME can set it right. Yes – this could
and does happen with long calls & long puts too, BUT “Time”
is NOT on your side here. especially with fron month options.
One day, you have a profit, and the next day the stock gaps
down, and it’s ALL gone!
Look at DECK MARCH80 Calls over the last month (dates approx)
FEB 4 – 9.00
Feb 6 – 10.30
Feb10 – 9.15
Feb11 10.00
Feb13 6.05
Feb14 5.14
Feb18 12.90
Feb19 11.45
Feb20 13.45 – 10.75
Feb25 12.00
Feb26 3.62 – 2.18
Feb29 0.84
Mar 3 2.20
So timing IS EVERYTHING – If you snooze, you lose
Lin just timed this one perfectly.
She blogged about it, but I for one did not listen.
Big mistake on my part – good analysis, if I may say so,
but piss poor execution.
Also, I think that trading options is really NOT about
getting exercised or not. Whether you are long or short them
you just want to get your money out of there as soon as possible,
you have until expiration to get that done, but if you can do it
before, than that is what you want.
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:15 pm
Thank you tony – thank you ana – I try to give info too that people can use to make money with – like those dollar gains info from last night and the Darvas box info from last night – things like that. So, it’s usually good info I give out – not just TA. So, that’s why i was curious if people read my posts on the info i give out OR if they get anything out of the info when i do give it out.
thank you both for letting me know
I appreciate it – A LOT!! 
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:15 pm
Hi Slava, I decided to hold tight and will sell like a shot if HVU
dips below 8.52 (a strong support), but thanks for the two bits.
I just saw your response to my email from yesterday. What I meant
by more reliable and relaxing ways of investing is to have the
majority of your portfolio (I’m talking registered plans here as
that is what I mainly deal with) in low beta, undervalued stocks,
preferreds, closed end funds etc. that generate a reliable stream
of dividends. If you buy these on support and the equity has secure
rising dividends, you will be doing well in all environments except
washouts when everything tanks. I have done well with some of these
names: AGNC (almost 20% dividend, uptrending profile, backed by fedral
agencies), CPL, KMR (beautiful profile and nice dividend) and Canadian
names like PBN (up over 100% since oct. but still trades below book
value and has rising dividend payments (currently around 6%). I also
hold a bunch of the pipeline, telecom. and real estate dividend players
(PPL, BA, ETP, CUF.UN, HR.UN and others mentioned by Canuck et al). There
has been quite a mania developing for these over the last while with bonds
and GICs giving such pathetic yields, but I think you can ride the rising
tide for quite awhile if you buy when they are undervalued relative to their
peers.
So in these cases, buy and hold is still possible (I just don’t allow any
to lose more than 5% or I am out, but that doesn’t seem to happen often). In
the meantime you can enjoy the ride. I also have a big position in HAC in all
our accounts ’cause I trust the management to do the right thing. I still play
with resource stocks but more around the edges and for short term gains when
the trend is our friend. I just don’t like gambling too much with retirement
money, that’s all. If I don’t make money in a given month or year, I’m doing
something wrong.
Hope this helps clarify my earlier comment.
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:18 pm
Hi Kay,
thank you Kay for letting me know! I included you already in the list of people whom i know for sure read my posts AND get things out of them – but thank you Kay nonetheless for letting me know – I really appreciate it!!
Michael should be included in that list too – and Lin and mick/nv too – sorry guys for forgetting to include you in my list
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:21 pm
oh tony –
sorry, i wasn’t looking at HVU today – and I don’t use the 38 day MA – BUT, what is it you were asking me re HVU as I didn’t really understand what you were looking for in your question to me – so, please let me know?!
thank you!
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Hi Eve,
The same approach works as well with low priced U.S. stocks.
I have been going long & short on these for several years now.
You just need daily / weekly volatility, and very good volume,
so that trends are a little clearer (than low priced Cdn stocks)
Sandridge going from 8.03 to 8.75 in 2 days, is similar to
the higher priced stock going from 80.30 to 87.50.
There are lots & lots of these – check FINVIZ screeners.
Other names are ALU, KOG, DAL, ALU, CX, KOG, AKS, LCC, HGSI,
MHR, TIVO, COCO…… all good traders because they have a
decent average true range (for small stocks) and good volumes.
Yes – I do very much appreciate what you are saying, but not
everyone may want to trade the high priced stocks.
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Hi Eve,
This is useful information, mainly for indices and commodities as far as I am concerned. I do not trade momentum stocks. I have a problem fundamentally with this type of stocks. I guess, if you daytrade them, this is OK. You make it look easy. However, if you get on the wrong side, those stocks move up and down as fast , if not faster. I do not think this is for everyone. You can make big money, but you can lose as much. Thank you for all the information.
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:47 pm
Re;Darvis Box
it’s nice that Eve brought up the Darvis box again. This is something Ron/BC and I talked about some time ago. What Darvis noted (at a high level), that for uptrending stocks, the price would rise, stop and consolidate, forming a box. The stock would then break out of the box (up buy, down sell). here is an example with BCE.to
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BCE.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p49271825612&a=257204438
Thanks Eve for bringing up this subject again.
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:48 pm
Hi Rol lew,
Yes, in my post last night on the stocks that do these dollar gains, I wrote that they had high volume and were usually over $30 in prioe – so, yes, I wrote that too yesterday Rol – but thank you! And thank you for those extra names – I can see about adding them to my watch list – thank you Rol
Oh and it’s great to hear that yopu too have noticed that same dollar gain thing done daily in these stocks – so, thanks for telling me about that too Rol – I appreciate it!!! 
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:49 pm
David, thank you very much – sounds like a solid strategy.
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:52 pm
re: Darvis
I should mention that Darvis always used stop losses (which would be at the top of the box) . Sometimes the breakout did not last and the stock dropped, stopping him out. He would wait until the box formed again and reenter the trade, very disciplined approach.
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:53 pm
NTR: now that it’s weekend already…
Sub.- Oil, Politics, Pres. Election, US policies, Tensions of the world
Michael,
re.#38
You touched the subject that I was thinking about just last night.
Now mind well, these are just my views & not to hurt/harm any community/country/religion.
There is enough talk about Presidential elections & related market behaviour. I think as it becomes more clear that Obama could win his 2nd term, market pros. (mainly right wing class) are going to keep the markets higher and therefore giving boost to oil prices via financial derivatives stimulus into already frothy oil market. Making it more difficult for Main Street American to get cheaper fill at the pump…and therefore, proving Obama ‘bad’ to middle/lower class American to Win the election for Republicans. Markets will really react badly if Obama wins or if it gets ‘certain’ B4 elections. So, it’s time for pros. to inject more speculation in oil markets and thereby keeping SPX up as well.
All it takes is to make TelAviv make some statements that Republicans have very close & cozy ties with. I guess yesterday afternoon it was Iran’s turn. Iran media had fun claiming Saudi oil line/refinery burst or something like that & watch people gushing to the oil pits in hoards.
It’s time that America stops running it’s foreign policy dept. from TelAviv. Netanyahu’s visit to N.A. – he is here in Canada today- is just to show the escalation that Right Wing Republicans want in Middle East. Watch the weekend events -annual one as I hear- with Pro Israel & dominant group in US. British left enough political nightmares in many parts of the world like Israel vs. Arabs/Palestine, India vs. Pakistan just to name a few. America better be stopped from being run by few influential class of people and let REAL democracy flourish.
Agreed that US needs to maintain & expand their no.1 exports – Weapons & Weapons related technology- at any cost. Those rouge states that US keep hammering at all the times did get those missiles, centrifuges & nuclear bombs with US blessings only. And if one rouge state has one thing but needs another thing, another rouge state will help achieve it. Pakistan was given nuclear technology, warheads & bombs, and now it’s giving it to Saudi (not going to be acclaimed until the Iran issue is lost or won) & selling things to North Korea as it wants missile tech. in exchange. Iran getting centrifuges will force Saudi to get it too, remember Saudi is the biggest indirect financial donors to Pakistan. And where US can’t sell its weapons directly it uses Israel as a middle agent. Speaking of margins, this dirty business is 1000% + by the time it reaches to the end user.
At the same time, US is very slow to learn that some countries/regions can’t have democracy as public itself don’t deserve it cause the book comes 1st before the humanity or the common sense of administration or equality.
2 years before 911 US was warned by a foreign head of the state -in a joint session of both the houses- about being too overconfident & complacent that they are protected enough by two oceans on its sides for terrorists to penetrate & attack on their own home land. Unfortunately it occurred & it’s now called ‘Black Swan’ event!! Similarly, real grass root democracy has been steadily ignored by US media/wealthy/Right Wing and they are going about their routine business of manipulation/lies/corruption/cover-ups at the expense of common man.
The Oil and Auto lobby won’t make it easy to popularise the use of Nat. Gas as a fuel of choice. No matter how much they sit on or how good it’s for environment. Then again, they tried to label OilSands dirty oil(and now it’s Europe’s turn), while Coal fired energy is much more polluting than the oil fired energy. US also launders its weapons trade by binging/buying oil from many nations.
Lots of dough is at stake by Conservatives & Right wing that own lot of media too. Common sense is a distant thing for US when it comes to practising what they preach to the world all the time. US is the only state that has dropped the nuclear bomb on a living country – no matter whether it was war- and nuclear non-proliferation talk and lectures don’t need to come out all the time from them.
Getting back to the Gasoline price @ the pump and the Presidential Elections politics: While the social media revolution has greatly reduced the ability of Main Stream Media (& their barons) or State Owned Media (as in many other countries) to keep B.S.ing the public, it remains to be seen how strong actually the democracy is. I hope that the testing time is not too far out.
So yes Michael, it will be worth if Wayne -our new Peace Ambassador- with his wine diplomacy can resolve that issue and we can get back to being in harmony & peace with mother nature, focus more on betterment of human beings & next many generations to come. Or even to prepare together for poss. Alien attack!
Well at least US can first start by throwing out the Imperial and US customary units and get rid of gallons/miles/ounces/pint/foot etc. just to name a few. International System of Units is followed all over the world except for 3 nations: Burma, Liberia & you guessed it correctly- USA
‘Nuf said already!
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:53 pm
Eve, everything you write is super useful.. you have no idea what kind of a difference you are making on here. Your memory is so incredible! You remember all these moves in various stocks – to be honest I can barely keep up
I print many of your posts and my desk at home is covered in these pages which I, one day, plan to summarize in a binder. If I only had more time!
March 2nd, 2012 at 4:57 pm
Hi Martine,
Thank you for letting me know! One of the stocks I wrote about on here back in December for people to look at (as a good trading stock) was DECK – yesterday, I saw you post a note to Lin on trading DECK – DECK is a higher priced stock AND can be volatile too – the ones I wrote about in my posts are not ALL higher priced – they are mostly in the $20′s to $50′s range of COG, WPRT, RAX, RVBD, KORS, – and just a few of them are higher priced – like LNKD (in the $80′s) and SINA (in the $70′s) and FOSL (over $120), etc. – but using the smaller priced stocks are great for trading – AND they are really safe as in they don’t do extreme moves each day such that you’d need to worry IF you got caught holding one, that it could lose like $4 or more the next day – they don’t have those kind of large price moves – AND when they come down in price, they go to support and then quickly rebound after that – that is true of RAX, RVBD, WPRT, and KORS – so, those stocks are nothing to fear – AND they’re good money makers! I wrote about ZNGA as being another good one and it’s a $14-$15 stock – as well as CYOU too – it’s a mid $20′s stock. So, no, not all the stocks I discussed in those posts are highly volatile OR high in price – BUT, they are still great for trading purposes!
thanks for letting me know Martine
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:04 pm
” ” Wayne Says:
March 2nd, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Lin,
I have never traded Deck. But, buying an option so close to expiry is a very risky venture.” ”
Wayne,
I cannot stress enough how much I totally agree with you.
But in spite of this, I still do it sometimes. Many months it is
my buy & hold longs & shorts that keeps me in the game, and also
my selling of options to collect the premiums from the option
buyers. But some months the long calls or puts are the leaders.
Q. So why do I still insist on doing that?
A. Low risk & high reward if I am right.
Here is what some March DECK Calls did the last few days,
not withstanding what I just said in #204 to gmsa.
——-LOW TUE—-HIGH FRI—-% GAIN—-PROFIT ON $5,000—-N0 CONTRACTS
MAR70—6.00——-10.20——–70%———- $3360————- 8
MAR75—2.50——–6.20——–148%———-7400————– 20
MAR80—0.95——–2.85——–200%———-9500————– 50
MAR85—0.30——–0.90——–200%———-9600————– 160
The further out of the money you go, the higher percentage return
if you are right, but the more you lose, if you are wrong.
Always a trade-off.
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Hi mick/NV,
I wrote about the Darvas box last night in a few posts as RAX just completed one AND was looking to complete its second one – and NA.TO was looking to complete one too (it did today). So, that’s why I brought it up again today on the board – as i know this info IS really useful to know about – for sure!!
it was I who wrote last year on the board about a stock completing a “box” pattern – and I had not heard of that pattern – so, I had posted on here about a box pattern forming on this one stock and that i heard it was “bullish” (it was discussed on BNN by a US trader from New York – Todd from Adam Mesh trading) – so, when I posted that info, Ron/BC asked me what kind of a box – I told him i didn’t know – all i knew was it was a box pattern – and it was Ron/BC who then told me it was most likely the Darvas box – and that is when it was discussed on here with you and Ron/BC and I – and Ron/BC explained what it was – and then i looked up more info on it from online. Ron told me about Darvas and his history and method from back in the 1960′s. So, that’s how I came to know about it last year mick
thanks mick
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:07 pm
Rol Lew,
re.#204
Just saw you note, many thanks for details & explanation.
My scenario was with already sold cog calls @ 39 strike for this month.
They are now 0.15, So why to worry about covering it?
As you earlier explained the term ‘delta’, for this it is 0.137 only, on my short calls. So even if the premium goes 300% above today’s price I am fine, as Theta is working in my favour heavily right now.
Is this kind of reasonable? or I’m going on a wrong track pl.?
I understand your & Lin’s point of taking profits & poss. roll over to the next or the one after month.
Will appreciate your input.
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:11 pm
Hi Slava,
Yes, thank god for my memory!! And I will tell you Slava, ALL of this stuff that I write on here of things I’ve learned in the last 3 yrs – I have NONE of it written down!! It’s all just in my memory box
in my brain 
– is that not the greatest thing??!! Like, just now to mick/nv, I wrote about how last year, I had seen the box pattern being discussed on BNN by Todd from adam mesh trading – THAT is just from my memory!! I don’t have that stuff written down anywhere!! LOL – is that not the collest thing to have sucxh a great memory??!! LOL – yes, I am truly blessed with that – I swear 
Ok good, I’m glad you get a bit of usefulness from the things I post – but really look at some of those things really closely – they will help you make money – like at least $1000 a day!! No joke!! Just look at SOME of the stocks I’ve posted about – you’ll see for yourself Slava
thanks girl
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:14 pm
Eve
You do have extraordinary memory, you are right, i remember now that it was you who brought up the ‘box’ pattern. Glad you brought it up again, I hadn’t looked at the Darvis box in a long time. Always nice to review these things. Thanks again.
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:15 pm
Currently I own 33 holdings between 7 accounts .. 30 long and 3 short (but very large short positions).. No wonder I can’t keep up! 14 of them are juniors.
At the end of each week I calculate my net worth in a spreadsheet.. I compare my weekly non-registered and tfsa balances. Sometimes I just want to get rif of everything, be in cash and not log in for a week or so, but it’s not an option for now.
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:17 pm
Rol Lew,
WOW!!! Such great info in that post 218 to gmsa on DECK!! I saw yesterday that DECK would go today to $80 (as options were saying this) – and yup, it did just that!
So, with those contracts you just posted on DECK from Tues to Friday, did you BUY the calls?? OR sell the calls?? (when you wrote about the calls and how many contracts were involved for $5000 invested in each trade).
Thanks Rol lew
I always come to you when I’m trying to learn more about options – so, thank you Rol lew for all that you do on here re options’ “classes” 
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:21 pm
Eve, there is the Darvas box and then there is “Eve’s box” – one powerful brain! I can’t say I was blessed with really good memory. Mine is more photographic..
I also vividly remember the mental pain I felt from taking a large loss on a position.. about to relieve it again soon when I go to cover CMG and lulu
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Thanks mick/nv
re my memory: i know eh – isn’t that wild?? My memory has always been this way – going back to childhood! People in my personal life are always so amazed at how I can remember things AND in such DETAIL as i do! LOL – it amazes them!! aND it AMAZES ME too!!! Just very grateful I’m blessed with this 
re Darvis box: yes, very grateful Ron/BC taught me about that – BUT, grateful too to Todd Horowitz who discussed the box on BNN last year
yes, always great to review such things – that is for sure!!
Thanks mick
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Hi gmsa. All I was suggesting was that Wayne have a little food and drink over there (lol!). Mind you, I’m sure that he can solve all those other issues that you mentioned!
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:23 pm
Hi Eve,
Thank you for your insights for BHI, it closed at 49.03 and I am watching for an entry point at 47.00.
Great information posted to Slava and I would follow these stocks for 2 weeks and see I can understand how they behave on daily basis .
have great
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:27 pm
re:Darvis Box
For those that are interested, there is someone out there that is building a portfolio using the Darvis box method, he started at the beg of Jan 2012
http://breakoutreport.com/BOR2012/newsletter.htm
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Slava,
LOL – that is too cute!! “eve’s box”! a very close good male “friend” of mine always tells me I was blessed in life with the 3 b’s: brains, beauty, and breasts LOL – he just told me last night that he hates how smart I am – BUT, that he also gets really turned on by it too
LOL. He’s always telling me, “you’re so sexy!! AND you have a brain too!” – like the 2 are mutually exclusive is I think what he’s trying to suggest LOL. He’s too cute sometimes!!
Thanks Slava
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Slava #185
How close have you been watching this Slava – has CMG done the same runup between 3pm and closing as it did today?
By the way, did you see my reply to you yesterday when you asked where I got real time Cdn quotes?
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:28 pm
NTR
Eve, I also wish I had more memories of growing up in Russia.. after all, I lived there for 19 years of my life and some of it now seems so blurry and distant. It’s like memories from a different planet.. cold, snow, hard life, a lot of turmoil, fear, excitement.. tanks of the streets, being a young pioneer, etc. etc. I competed in track and field as a child/teenager. Once even kidnapped by people who thought that I was from a wealth family.. (I escaped). I went through so many different experiences while growing up that most people in the Western worls would not experience in their whole lifetime! But everything is quite blurry now.
Now YOU would have remembered every single little detail and would be able to capture it in an autobiography.
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:30 pm
Eve, wanted to let you know your posts are very good. I had recently been using the darvas box, but I’m trading Canadian stocks only for now. Do you have a few recommendations for Canadian stocks? And to Slava, from what I have learned over the past couple of years, focus on fewer stocks, write down your trading rules and stick to them. This is the strategy I am working with right now and I believe over time it will be profitable. PATIENCE is very important in trading I have found.
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:31 pm
Eve, re “3 b’s: brains, beauty, and breasts LOL “.. Ray would be saying “Eve, stop fogging up my screen, I’m trading!”
Now all we can think about are the other two b’s ..lol
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:34 pm
CJ, just the mention of “CMG” makes me nauseous.. same run up in the final hour. Chart is a straight upward line from Feb. 3rd.
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:36 pm
hi Ania,
Thank you Ania
re BHI – don’t buy it though til you see it get bought at a support level of like $47 OR at $46 or at $45 too – wait til you see it getting bought before you buy into it. Also, look for it to get to oversold too on stochastics – that’s usually when the stock starts going up again from there.
Those stocks: yes, do watch them for AT LEAST 2 weeks – see how they act each day – use a 5 min chart with those indicators on it I told you about – that’s “almost” the only way you can tell when it is overbought or oversold OR at support OR resistance during INTRADAY trading (meaning, throughout the course of the day). Focus on RAX, WPRT, KORS, COG, RVBD, ZNGA, LNKD, and SINA – they’re all really good ones to watch! LNKD and SINA though can be quite volatile – so, caution is needed with those 2. KORS is VERY overbought too on the keltner – IF the markets sell off here for a bit, then KORS will only sell off to at most $40 before it heads higher again.
SINA has resistance at $77.80 – options show now that it can go to $75 or to $77.50 by next Friday for the weekly options expiry – and that it could go to $80 by March options expiration on March 17th. BUT it is overbought on stochastics – so, it might just get up to that $77.50 area and then come down from there – BUT, it could go higher too as it just broke out of a bull flag pattern too! So, we’ll see if it can go higher from that $77.80 area OR if it hits there and then comes down again.
thanks ania
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:38 pm
Rol Lew
Have you ever bot LEAPS – and sold calls against the position? A trader I know does this and rolls every month. That’s all he does. He stays with the high volume liquid names US only and has made close to 40% since January. He has a system that triggers if the calls gets close to the money. He told me that close to 90% of all calls expire worthless.
I have been following a couple of candidates for my partner’s account.
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:38 pm
mick/nv,
thank you so much for that article
I appreciate you posting this!! 
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:40 pm
gmsa,
My guess would be that time is on your side here.
With three weeks to go, COG would have to go up
by 5$ to cause you any grief.
Not very likely, I don’t think so.
……………………………….
I do believe that some brokers charge $9 – $29
plus $1.00 or $1.50 per contract, for options trades.
If you have one of those, then it “may” be time
to look elsewhere.
Some brokers also charge 0.75 per contract – that’s all.
So in spite of what I said above, in my case, I would
be closing the trade, & paying the 0.75, plus the spread,
maybe on monday, when it may be able to be done for 9 cents?
If COG gaps up again, like it did 9 days ago, you will
lose more that 15 cents or 9 cents x how many contracts?
COG moved to a sell signal today, when it broke under 34.60,
2-hr bars & AROON so not very likely it will decide to gap up… but….
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:46 pm
Eve, I agree that it is possible to be successful in day trading. Today I made $425 taking two positions – and I had to commute to work, was constantly interrupted at work, had to step out for three brief meetings .. Now had I been able to do this properly, I would have made way more money today.
So I defintely think it’s possible. All the support and help from this forum makes a huge difference, of course. Today was a great example of team work when we had an excellent discussion about bbd.b and that it was probably time to buy.. it was trading at $4.18 or so at the time.. closed today at $4.34. So here is +3.8% right here! So I think we have a great group of people on here and everyone has smth unique to add.. Also, so happy to see Wayne back and Lin posting more frequently than she ever had!
I hope everyone has a great weekend. I’m heading to Washington state again tomorrow and will come back on Monday night. I hope I can trade from the USA on Monday
March 2nd, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Slava,
you were kidnapped as a child and escaped??? OH MY GOD!!! That is UNREAL!!!! That sounds like a Bond flick!!! I am so sorry to hear this!!! Well, it’s good that you don’t have a great memory then as those are things that are best to be forgotten!! That’s for sure!!!
I don’t have a good memory from my childhood – my memory works best for things going back to when I was around 15 – 18. Not from childhood though
oh well, can’t have everything 
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 6:02 pm
Wayne, RE #236
I prefer to mainly sell otm put spreads and or otm call spreads,
often on the same stock, instead of buying long puts or calls.
The money is not fantastic, but it is more reliable so it can
be done in size. Who knows maybe one day I will change,
to les balles d’acer. (hope I got that right)
Yep – I know that “covered calls” with leaps works,
same idea really as above – i.e., buy an option that decays
slowly, and sell one that decays faster. My slower
decaying option is in the same month but @ a more in the money
strike.
March 2nd, 2012 at 6:15 pm
Hi Slava. I’m glad that you bought some BBD. When I looked at the charts this morning, I noticed that when it pierced through the lower Keltner, it bounces back. So I chose to ignore yesterday’s conversation with Ron/AB about support and gaps and bought at $4.22. That’s what Eve has been talking about…getting to know a stock! I may soon sell if it gets above the mid-Keltner.
March 2nd, 2012 at 6:21 pm
Hi Erin,
Thank you erin for letting me know! I’ve not seen you post before – so, welcome to the board if this is one of your first posts
Re good Cdn stocks to follow, yes, I can give you a few good ones that have fairly good price moves in a day OR move between support and resistance levels fairly regularly such that you can feel comfortable in buying them on a sell off and selling them when overbought on the chart OR at resistance on a chart. Cdn stocks like this that would be good for trading are: FM (copper stock), SLW (silver stock), G (gold stock), ABX (gold), ARX (gas stock), SU (oil), BTE (oil), SLF (insurance), NA (bank), TD (bank), RCI.B (Rogers), ALA (gas), WPT (innovation re producing nat gas vehicles), CPG (oil), ANV (gold), – so, that’s a good list to get you started Erin
if I think of other good ones, I’ll let you know 
Hope this helps
Thanks Erin for letting me know
Eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 6:23 pm
Thanks Michael
Eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 6:25 pm
NTR
Eve, I was actually 14 years old at the time.. 1991, the end of the Soviet Union.. and my parents don’t even know to this day! I was grabbed near the lake close to my grandmother’s datcha outside of the city – people who did this mistook me for someone else. I suppose I resembled the girl who was the real target.. I think her Dad was up-and-coming oil magnate or smth like that and he had some enemies. They were not real “professionals” and it was pretty easy to run away.. I ran through the forest and was back at the datcha in time for dinner. As I mentioned I was in track and field and trained a lot at that time so running was not an issue. I also knew that forest like the back of my hand (and they didn’t). I remember my heart pounding so hard I could feel it in my throat. THAT feeling I remember well. Anyways, those times were so turbulent – it made one very tough.
March 2nd, 2012 at 6:35 pm
NTR
Eve, also, when I was 15 years old a very close friend of mine (almost like a boyfriend of sorts) hanged himself from a gigantic construction crane.. and the following year one of my close friends died from a heroine overdose. So I had to deal with A LOT. It’s amazing I turned out so comletely normaly
.. okay, I suppose I do have a lot of memories to share!
I’ll catch everyone later. Sorry for so many NTR posts.
March 2nd, 2012 at 6:39 pm
Hi Eve,
To follow these stocks: RAX, WPRT, KORS, COG, RVBD, ZNGA, LNKD, and SINA, I will need to have 5 min charts and 4/9/18 ma. Do I need to add MACD, RSI, and full STO.
Thank you for being so generous with your knowledge and time, Ania
March 2nd, 2012 at 6:44 pm
Slava
NTR
You are an amazing person! I am glad you are on this forum.
March 2nd, 2012 at 6:54 pm
Slava,
WOW!!! That is incredible that you had to deal with such tragedy at such a young age!!! I am so so sorry to hear this!!!! well, I am very glad that your life has not been altered in a negative fashion from all that loss and horrifying and terrible experiences as a child!!! God bless you Slava!!!
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 7:09 pm
Ania,
You need the 4/9/18 on the chart and bollinger bands and Williams %R and RSI and maybe volume too. With williams and RSI, adding stochastics isn’t necessary BUT you could add it as just a confirming indicator – as in, if stock is showing oversold on Williams, then you look at stochastics and see if it is oversold too – all on the 5 min chart that is – and then you buy when they are oversold AND will often be at the bottom of the bollinger band then too! Here’s an example of what occured TODAY – from open at 930 am til closing at 4 pm – on LNKD – with JUST the bollinger band on the chaert:
http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=LNKD+Interactive#symbol=lnkd;range=1d;compare=;indicator=bollinger+volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined;
See how each time it hit the bottom of the bollinger band, it bounced up – and went up by usually $1 to $2 each time it went up – it went up to the top bollinger and then came down and went to bottom bollinger (which was also at price support of the $85 area) – and then went up from there for anothr $1 or more gain – which took it to the top of the bollinger and then it came down and went back to bottom bollinger and repeat….
So, if you have the bollinger PLUS the 4/9/18 PLUS the Williams %R and RSI on the chart, then you can see if stock is oversold on the williams, RSI, and sometimes the bollinger too – before you step in to buy. Sometimes, a stock doesn’t get to the bottom bollinger band before it gets bought and goes higher. It sometimes just gets to around the 18 day MA (on the 5 min chart) and then gets bought there and goes up again. Depends on the stock you’re dealing with.
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 7:11 pm
Eve
Wow, trying to catch up on posts. I went for a rest when the markets closed. Came back here an hour or so ago and cutting and pasting so much good information.
Eve, I am surprised; you left me out as one of your established “appreciative” followers…. possibly because I have not been on the blog much. I think your posts on the big movers the last couple of days has been very valuaBLE INformation. Thank you very much.
Question:
When we have the correction which is imminent, how will the stocks you are day trading behave?
I have been $ cost averaging on HVU because it has to go up during a correction…. this I feel absolutely certain of. Do you agree?
It will be much easier for me to make profits by doing this now. I may even trade some intra-day over the next few trading days. It seems March 8th could be a risky day as this is PSI deadline for Greece. I think it is also Options week????
Then mid-month is Bradley date.
March 2nd, 2012 at 7:13 pm
Eve, I read and copy almost everything you post here. Absolute great info! I have a file an in. thick of your stuff and I,ve only been on this site for a couple mos. I would give my eye teeth if I could learn how to do just what you talked about in the last two days. I have so many ques. and I hate to bother you. I do the same for Tony and all the other people who post great info. Thanks to you all.
March 2nd, 2012 at 7:18 pm
Eve
Here is a daily chart of HVU. I think I have too much information and should remove some of the MAs (this is Tony’s chart style) as it is hard to read compared to oathers I have seen.????
Point of this chart is I see a similar pater right now as we had July 2011. What do you think?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
March 2nd, 2012 at 7:35 pm
mick, you are too kind.. Nothing amazing about me.. just a regular person with a somewhat interesting background (not like I chose it – I just happened to be born and raised in a crazy country during volatile times and coped with it to the best of my ability)
I do contribute to charities on a regular basis since I know what it’s like to have a difficult time… but I could be doing much more..
Now who is truly amazing are all the people on this forum (yourself included) who so generously share their knowledge and experience with other investors who need the help – that’s truly amazing.
March 2nd, 2012 at 7:49 pm
gmsa,
Great piece! Now you do enjoy the weekend and forget about the evil world at work. We are certainly not all born equal under the sun.
March 2nd, 2012 at 7:51 pm
Tawny,
Oh sorry tawny – sorry, I didn’t mean to! I left out other people too like Ron/AB – as I know Ron/AB reads my stuff too – as does Ana too! So, it wasn’t intentional – sorry.
Good that you’re trading HVU – that will help AND is better than just holding and waiting for it to get back up to your break even price. When a correction comes, yes HVU should go up IF it is a bigger correction that just the SPX going to the 9 day MA and moving up from there (as it did today) – a bigger correction though “may” not come until May – BUT, yes, the Bradley date is coming (march 16th) and options monthly expiration is March 17th – so, THAT “COULD” be a good time to turn the markets and actually have a corerection. HVU will move a really good amount IF the SPX goes BELOW the mid keltner (currently at 1354) OR if it goes below its 50 day MA at 1316.
the stocks I watch will pull back with the markets – USUALLY! BUT, today, 3 of them were UP – and UP BIG TIME!! and why?? well, it’s only my theory but I have seen this occur before with stocks, so it might actually be a correct theory I’ve found
But, I think these stocks run up in price in order to prepare for a pullback in the markets that is coming in the very near term (just like a stock that is going to miss earnings and you see it run up in price a week before it reports – I think it is so it can get to overbought zone – so that when it misses, it has room to fall down – like DECK just did recently – a week or so ago, it was getting to oversold area AND a support zone – it got to $79 area and then went up to $91 area within 1 week – and it was then overbought on the chart – then it reported and it missed – the stock went down from there for a few days to $74 – found support there 2 days ago and has gone back up to over $80 as of today). So, IF there’s a market pullback coming, then stocks NEED to get themselves to overbought zone IF they’re not there right now – that way, they have room to fall back down when the markets do sell down – hope that makes sense?? So, that is what I think was going on today with SINA, KORS, and RAX (although KORS is already VERY overbought – BUT, it is “establishing” a price range for itself – so, on a pullback, it will most likely just pull back to the mid keltner which as of today just got up to $40 as the stock went to close to $49 today. So, when I see a stock running up like that in price, I’ve often seen that it is because it wants to raise its price UP so that when the stock pulls back with the market, the stock has room to fall back but just to a support point or breakout point as $40 is for KORS. KORS shouldn’t fall below $39 UNLESS the markets sell off really awfully!! So, in order to NOT go below that $39 level, then it had to get far above its recent high of $44.97 so that on a pullback, it had room to fall to just $40 – if that makes sense??
So, ya, my stocks will pull back with the markets too ONCE they get to overbought zone – BUT, they will find a low price in a trading day (around 945 am to 1030 am) and then will move up from there to still get their $1 gain in on the day – they will then “trade” like that throughout the day by selling down, then finding buyers and going up $1, etc etc. – this is especially true of SINA. SINA is a great trading stock!!
Hope this answers everything Tawny
Eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 7:57 pm
Hi BJ,
AWWW, thanks BJ so much – I really appreciate you telling me this!! I just really do hope people do learn with the things I post – so, thatr is really great to hear that you ARE getting good info that you can use, from reading my posts.
So, thank you BJ
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 7:58 pm
Slava,
I agree with mick/nv. You are are amazing and I specially enjoy your sense of humour. Some guys must have fog in their glasses from time to time. It makes me smile each time. It takes the pressure off. You went through a lot it seems . One of my sons who is nineteen years old always tell me I have good karma. I believe you do and you shall get back a lot in return. Enjoy the weekend! Lucky you to go away for the weekend.
March 2nd, 2012 at 8:05 pm
Tawny,
Your chart didn’t come thru as you didn’t first hit “linkable version” before you copied the address line.
So, for HVU, here’s my chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVU.TO&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p06142730477
And the chart from back last year, I’ll put in a separate post….
March 2nd, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Hi Tawny,
It is nice to see on the board. Maybe just one suggestion. Take your chart or Eve`s chart for HVU and check the $VIX directly. I believe it will give you a better picture of the trend. One thing of interest is the MACD slowly grinding higher. I always find that double ETFs, even single like VXX, don`t give you a good picture of the trend. You have a good weekend.
You too Eve. Bye for now!
March 2nd, 2012 at 8:15 pm
Tawny,
Now here’s HVU from last year – from July when it started going up:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVU.TO&p=D&st=2011-03-02&en=2011-08-31&id=p17311049340
So, right away, you should notice that in the july chart, HVU was at a price low AND at the BOTTOM of the keltner – HVU right now is NOT at the bottom keltner as the bottom is at $7.51. Only things similar is that stoch and RSI are oversold on both charts AND RSI is at a similar level right now as it was last July. Also, there was a “W” pattern that formed on HVU last July too – you can see it really easily on the chart – and a “W” of course, is bullish – thus, the start of the up move in HVU last July
So, right now, there’s nothing bullish on that chart – it won’t get bullish UNTIL it can get DECISIVELY ABOVE the mid keltner – until that happens, any uptick in HVU will only go to the mid keltner and then back down again. But it is a good sign that HVU keeps finding support above $8 – you want to see it staying that way though because if it doesn’t, then it “could” go below $7 – BUT, that’s just a possibility – not at all a probability as it could find support at that $7.50 point as that right now is its low at the keltner.
Hope this helps tawny
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 8:16 pm
Eve,
Sorry I haven’t been on since noon, but yes,I enjoy all of your post and did read the posts you wrote about the Darvis box and the dollar gain stocks. I appreciate you sharing your knowledge. I have also copied alot of the info you put on this board. I have so much on file, I wanna learn everything I read cause I know you say everything from the heart. I am trying to set up a watchlist that I like, I have a few that I will stick with and checking out a few more at a time. The more dollars gained the better right!
Thanks and your teachings are very appreciated.
March 2nd, 2012 at 8:23 pm
Thanks Martine! You have a good weekend too
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 8:26 pm
Oh thank you dd for letting me know this!!! It makes it more worthwhile then for me to post this info, when I know others do in fact find it useful and beneficial for their trading or investing
So, thank you dd for your comments with this – it is very much appreciated!!
eve
March 2nd, 2012 at 9:18 pm
Hi Eve,
Thank you for being patient with me. The information you provided is very valuable for me and everyone who’s interested in day trading.
Have a good evening, Ania
March 2nd, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Slava,
NTR
I am so sorry that you had a such traumatic childhood and teenage years. I trust you are doing well now and feeling strong
Have a wonderful weekend, Ania
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:15 pm
Eve: re #190 “Just out of curiousity, does anyone on the board gain anything by things I write …”
For sure. Haven’t got much time lately to be here that often, I deeply appreciate you and everybody share their knowledge and info here. thankyou.
March 2nd, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Hi Eve,
Thanks again for sharing your knowledge. Your kindness is much appreciated.
Jo
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:29 pm
Eve and all the posters on this site:
I read most of the posts every evening – cut and past some of them into a word document if I think I might make use of it. Not a day trader though – so skip quickly over some. Trying to do seasonal investing and also a big fan of gold and silver – so that is my focus. The 4/9/18 has been great! The Darvis box looks interesting as well. Looking for more swing trades – so looking for longer outlooks. Hard to find entry points – so miss many as I generally leave for work shortly after the market opens.
Currently wanting to catch the energy seasonal trade – but it started early – don’t want to do what I did last year – picked a stock and an ETF – too late to the party and still own them.
Enjoy the NTR posts as well – Slava – you are very entertaining – glad to see you using stop losses also and doing better with your trades!
Still miss Ron/BC -such an interesting person!
Keep up the good work.
Deb
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:52 pm
Eve, What parameters do you need for Bollinger Bands for these day trades and what would be the settings that you would find on TDW.( I can,t see what parameters that they use.) How do you trade when the Band becomes very narrow? After a squeeze and a breakout how do you know that it is not a headfake?
March 3rd, 2012 at 12:03 am
Thank you Eve for all the suggested TSX stocks, greatly appreciate the info, I will watch them over the next while. Yes, first time posting, have a great weekend!
March 3rd, 2012 at 12:22 am
@ Eve,
Wanted to let u know that i also really enjoy ur posts…great info indeed!!
like Erin, I am looking at the TSX and not US so thanks for the Canadian picks earlier…
If I may add AGU and IMN to that list also…i have noticed they sometimes like to bounce atleast 1 dollar many days. what do you think?
Many thanks
great weekend every one!
March 3rd, 2012 at 10:42 am
Eve
my question is the following on HVU 60min chart: the 38MA has started curling but the 18MA has barely started could this be a precursor to volatility spike up?
Have you decided to go at the M-X option education day in TO
March 3rd, 2012 at 11:44 am
Slava,
NTR re-post 232
Congratulations on your success in Canada.I understand what you are talking about I grew up under Russian occupation in Austria.Be careful with your personal information you reveal on the internet as you could easily be tracked.
March 3rd, 2012 at 4:29 pm
Steven Place …..volatility trade discussion….
http://www.investingwithoptions.com/
Iwo Brunch – March 3rd – First 15 Minutes
I myself & me, we cannot pretend to understand all of this,
But if YOU can understand it, and if Steven is correct,
then those who are LONG HVU-t & LONG VXX could be in for some grief.
Also, @ 20 mins ….long USO???
March 3rd, 2012 at 8:57 pm
Hi Eve,
When you have some time, could you please give me an entry point for NXY.to and PBG.to and I am also watching $WTIC and see where it goes from here.
Great Thanks, Ania
March 3rd, 2012 at 10:44 pm
Ron Lew
Steven sounds as if he “is” short tvix and is trying to profit on his trade, convincing all, of this position. I would like to call himm a “twerp”. You heard me, I said “twerp”.
March 3rd, 2012 at 11:24 pm
The Greek debt crisis: it’s, like, totally over – video
Have you heard about the Greek debt crisis? After a year and a half, Europe has agreed something that might not work at all and, in the best case scenario, will take eight years to reduce Greek debt to a level that is still too high. Hopefully
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/video/2012/feb/22/greece-debt-relief-animation-video
March 4th, 2012 at 1:55 am
Hi Eve,
I read your comments on oil,gold,banks,hvu & genearal market trends & they are very helpfull. I tend to read this blog sporadically & my comments would be out of time, hence, do not comment/ask questions that often. Also I do not trade that often.But now you gave some cnd names i will try & follow. ( PS i try & skip US names — Sorry But keep writing as others like it… I think. Some of Cnd names I hold/follow are ABX,RY,TCK.b, BA, BCE, XEG, XIU, IPL,EMA,PWF,MFC (lately TCW & BBD) & of course HAC.
Also thanks to all other post contributors & Don & Jon Vialoux.
GMSA
If your question was about closing option positions ( Covered call or Naked puts) then Eric answred that in one of his columns 2-3 weeks ago. Maybe you want to read that.
March 4th, 2012 at 6:52 am
To Eric Wheatly
Thx for the laugh, this is just a trading column and I don’t have the answer to everything but I like to read things that I can put my arms around.
Thx for fridays column it answered my questions on puts buying and selling that I have asked this past week to fellow posters Rol lew and Lin.
very informative and
March 4th, 2012 at 7:18 am
post 281 your column is very informative and helpful to a simpleton like me
congrats on your new title
March 4th, 2012 at 9:55 am
Hi Eve,
I’ve been watching the Russell 2000 Small Cap Index ($RUT)for some time. Friday it finally broke to the downside after a month of relatively being range bound. I’m interested in your TA as the small caps usually lead the market on the way up but not sure about a change in direction? Thanks for all you work…this is a nightly read for me and very educational.
T
March 4th, 2012 at 10:08 am
Hi Ana,
Re #278, first I would like to repost a previous post
specifically, the 4th line from the bottom re VXX.
—————————————————-
60.Rol Lew Says:
February 17th, 2012 at 12:07 pm
Eve, Re # 45 to Tawny,
The cyclying stock strategy is one that I follow.
The tricky part though, is that I am always reluctant
to believe the buy-sell signals when they are given,
for example, pandora has a sell signal now, and sears
and dupont seem to be on a 2nd buy. Another drawback
is that it requires extreme patience. I do not have that.
Here are a few that I look at. Looking back over the
last six months, there are lots of soulda-coulda-woulda
points. But is is soooo hard to believe your eyes today!!
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?VXX,AGU,DD,GLD,GM,HFC,LNKD,P,PCAR,RIG,SHLD,SU|C|V25
I am not sure whether the AROON 25 indicator will show up.
Yeah!!! Who needs another indicaor? But with this one,
I feel that the green line creeping along the BOTTOM, seems
to say “OK – Get ready to go long” – sort of like an oversold
stochastics or oversold MACD. Opposite interpretation for the
green riding the top.
FD – I am short VXX out of the money calls, & and long DD atm calls.
FD – I am kicking myself on sears and suncor. Why? because sears
announced that it was losing tons of money and closing many stores,
and suncor is a polluter – all non technical reasons for doubting the charts.
———————————————–
OK now my comment for Mar 4th….
Back on Feb 16 when VXX was 26.80,
I shorted the Mar 29 Calls for 2.00.
It was then $2.20 out of the money.
On Friday, VXX was 24.27, so the short calls
are now $4.73 out of the money, & trading for 47 cents.
I do not know exactly how to calculate the profit here,
but it’s $1530 on 10 contracts, less comissions.
Max risk was possibly infinity – if VXX went up past 28,
and if I got exercised, and if VXX made a moon shot.
But Ana, look at the chart, now honestly, does that look
anything like a moon-shot in the making? I had my doubts
& that is why I took on that simply insanely stupid risk
of selling naked calls on something that has been trending DOWN
(lower highs, and lower lows) for 5 months.
My point is – it does not matter what Steven says,
that is just HIS opinion. He has his, I have mine,
and you have your own.
My second point is – there are safer ways to trade
volatility than buying or selling VXX (or HVU) directly.
In my trade on Feb 17th, I was trying to give myself
room for error – as in, “Suppose I am WRONG?” Again?!
March 4th, 2012 at 1:19 pm
Hi Lin,
Lin says:
Lin Says:
March 2nd, 2012 at 11:07 am
Morning, Rami/AB
How that feel?? 1.2 buck gain on SNDK!! When U come to C buy us bigger dinner at CMG. )
Re, SINA. you already know how to do it. So save me time for input now..
Well I was very busy Friday and Saturday but I was sure you will write something to me about SNDK when I saw the big jump it did on Friday thats why I went back and checked the comments from Friday morning and there it is. Definitely I feel better now about it and when I go to Calgary I will definitely be glad to buy you a CMG lunch and maybe buy you a LULU LEMON gift voucher
(I think some one on this board will not like this) hehehehe.
You are a very good trader and I wish I could learn from you. I am reading some books slowly (because I have a family as you might know) and its helping more but I would love to know how and based on what do you make your trades. Do you mind sharing with me if I give you my E-mail?
Also re SINA It goes way up everytime I THINK of buying but I don’t really buy and I would appreciate it if someone here forward your e-mail that you sent about it (I think you said GMSA have that email) and if no one have it can you try sending it to me. You might be able to filter it from your sent folder in your e-mail.
Thanks again Lin and I will try to come to Calgary in the summer and meet you for sure. You are a very nice person.
March 4th, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Hi, Lin
I am one of your followers, I like to thank so much for SPM.to, I bought at 0.95 since your posted on this board, now it is 2.03, so double my TSA, Other one is CRY.to , I bought after your posted 1.45 now 2.4 I like buy something for you and kids if there is any chance. Hopefully I can see you on March 17.
March 4th, 2012 at 4:59 pm
@tony:
Thanks for reading. Don’t worry about my feelings and go ahead and comment whatever you want. That’s the point of a community – tossing out ideas and complaining about that which one doesn’t like.
…especially, let me know if there is anything I can use in my commentaries. I’m starting to run out of ideas
March 4th, 2012 at 10:14 pm
Rol Lew,
re.#239
Thanks immensely for the details + your tech. analysis on COG.
Yes, I’ve those -calls- with two diff. brokers and it is 1.25 per contract + the commission (6.99 and the otherone 9.99)
But after speaking to them realised that
(1)In regd. a/c can’t sell other covered calls (apr or may) without closing the march position first… And
(2) In non-regd. a/c the broker is asking for whole lot of paper work to have naked options trade, so will leave it for now.
Therefore poss. will sell march ones when get 1st opportunity next week.
I am thinking of doing some aggressive option trading in either SLV or SLW in nearfuture with my ‘short’ view. Hopefully in next few days should be able to do some analysis of my own & poss. place some bets. If you have time in next week would like to hear your views on this please.
Thanks again.
March 4th, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Michael, Martine & Muntazir:
Thanks for your respective notes.
Michael, hope you convinced Wayne to give up his retirement & go solve those problems!
Martine, I guess probably something hit me on the nerve & ended up writing all that much. You’re right we all are different & so are the nations. The way world works!
Muntazir, will definitely go back & look @ Eric’s Fridays comments. This Options thing is exciting but I wish I didn’t have FT work & family to look after while studying these options – needless to say the desire for better, balanced & fairer world…migraines are not too far away, it seems!
Thanks for pointing to those articles.
Goodnight all.
March 4th, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Rol Lew,
re.#239
Thanks immensely for the details + your tech. analysis on COG.
Yes, I’ve those -calls- with two diff. brokers and it is 1.25 per contract + the commission (6.99 and the otherone 9.99)
But after speaking to them realised that
(1)In regd. a/c can’t sell other covered calls (apr or may) without closing the march position first… And
(2) In non-regd. a/c the broker is asking for whole lot of paper work to have naked options trade, so will leave it for now.
Therefore poss. will sell march ones when get 1st opportunity next week.
I am thinking of doing some aggressive option trading in either SLV or SLW in nearfuture with my ‘short’ view. Hopefully in next few days should be able to do some analysis of my own & poss. place some bets. If you have time in next week would like to hear your views on this please.
Thanks again.
March 4th, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Michael, Martine & Muntazir:
Thanks for your respective notes.
Michael, hope you convinced Wayne to give up his retirement & go solve those problems!
Martine, I guess probably something hit me on the nerve & ended up writing all that much. You’re right we all are different & so are the nations. The way world works!
Muntazir, will definitely go back & look @ Eric’s Fridays comments. This Options thing is exciting but I wish I didn’t have FT work & family to look after while studying these options – needless to say the desire for better, balanced & fairer world…migraines are not too far away, it seems!
Will have to find out ‘New Equilibrium’ in my life now…
Thanks for pointing to those articles.
Goodnight all.
March 4th, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Rol Lew, Michael & other Silver Traders:
Take a look
http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/silver’s-set-to-get-slammed-115784
March 4th, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Hi Tony,
I was looking at bbd options & looks like there are Apr puts $3 (17000+) & 3.50(19000+). Does it bode bbd can go down to 3-3.50 by Apr?? Thanks
March 5th, 2012 at 1:19 am
Ron Lew,
There is no argument with the data. Just thoroughly disppointed with his disdain with the retail trader. The market is what it is.
March 5th, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Rami/AB
My great pleasure!
I was just kidding, you don’t have buy me anything. I put my stop liss at 47.40. Let it run, it may come back.. yes, .gmsa has my address, ask him if he like pass mine to you!
March 5th, 2012 at 12:15 pm
sunny
I am so glad to read you have done great trades there, this is strategy called longer term. keep it up. March 17 ?? where?? meeting ?? will see. have a great day!