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Interesting Charts
The bond market was a focus yesterday. The long term Treasury ETF plunged through key support at $114.36 on higher than average volume. Money moving from bonds to stocks?
The bond market came under pressure partially because of continuing strength in the U.S. Dollar.
Higher interest rates impacted U.S. utility stocks. The sector continues to significantly underperform the S&P 500 Index.
The TSX Composite Index continues to significantly underperform the S&P 500 Index despite completion yesterday of a “Golden Cross” by the TSX Composite Index.
A major reason for underperformance of the TSX Composite Index is weakness in its gold sector. The “Curse of PDAC” continues.
Yesterday, strength in Canadian insurance stocks reduced the sting to the TSX Composite Index caused by the gold sector. Manulife, Sun Life and Power Financial broke key resistance levels on higher than average volume.
Gasoline prices continue to trend higher with falling inventories. Inventories dropped another 1.4 million barrel last week, typical after its seasonal peak has been reached.
ETF News
Free Information about Exchange Traded Funds on the Internet
A wide variety of free internet services are available at no cost. Some are general in nature and others are more specific.
The best general source for information on U.S. listed Exchange Traded Funds is ETFDB, the comprehensive and original ETF database available at http://etfdb.com/ . Useful sections on the site are “Browse by ETF” and “Browse by Ticker name”. The site also has an “ETF by Types” section that is useful for narrowing down selection by popularity, cost, performance, country exposure, issue, Price/Earnings ratio, issuer and dividend yield. In addition the site includes a screen feature that is useful for further fine tuning selection. The site provides daily comments on Exchange Traded Funds in the news and offers information on new issues that have been launched recently on U.S. exchanges.
The best general source for Canadian listed Exchange Traded Funds is a site recently launched by Yves Rebetez. Location of the site is http://www.etfinsight.ca/ . The site offers a search function based on ticker symbol, asset class and ETF provider. The ETF Spotlight section focuses on an individual ETF, its structure and key characteristics including its strengths and weakness, if any. The ETF Insight section includes comments from Mr. Rebetez as well as other contributors. In addition, contact information with Canadian distributors as well as Canadian discount brokers is included.
Email contact information for each Canadian distributor is as follows:
iShares: iSharesCanada@blackrock.com;
Claymore ETFs: info@claymoreinvestments.ca (In the process of merging with iShares Canada)
BMO Financial Group ETFs: http://www.etfs.bmo.com/
Horizons Exchange Traded Funds: info@horizonsetfs.com
Invesco PowerShares: http://invesco.ca/publicPortal/portal/retail.portal?_nfpb=true&powersharesETFs_fundcard_retailpage=advantage&_pageLabel=product_powerSharesETFs_page_label&_nfxr=true&_nfxr=false#page1
Vanguard: info-canada@vanguard.com;
RBC Global Asset Management: http://funds.rbcgam.com/etfs/
XTF ETF Solutions: http://www.etfinsight.ca/providers/xtf/xtf.php
Other useful sources include Morningstar’s Canadian ETF site at
http://www2.morningstar.ca/covers/etf_ca.aspx?region=CAN&culture=en-CA and the Globe and Mail site at http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/funds-and-etfs/etfs/ . The later site includes previous columns authored by Don Vialoux.
INVESTMENT COMMENTARY
Thursday, March 15, 2012
Our latest issue of CastleMoore Investment News is hitting the press shortly, and it’s a doozy with some great articles that will get you thinking. To receive your bi-monthly copy, please sign up at http://www.castlemoore.com/investorcentre/signup.php.
CHARTS of the WEEK
Bonds
The market is expecting interest rates to rise. The recent break out in rates upward may be short-lived, but that said it’s a long way from 2.27%, yesterday`s close on the US 10 year, to 2.80% first major resistance.
CDN Insurance
Not many benefit more from rising interest rates (and equity markets) than do insurance companies. IAG is very levered or sensitive to rates rising, MFC and SLF much less so.
TSX Composite
The TSX has not been doing as well as US or European markets of late with its focus on resources which have been pounded down by either a slowing China or a rising US dollar or both. The only sectors firing right now are financials (see above), industrials and technology (yes we have a tech sector) Oils, metals, and materials should be moving this time of year.
S&P 500
The S&P broke out above resistance and as Don mentioned yesterday, negating the rising wedge pattern. What matters now to become bullish again is that we hold the break out level.
Gold
Again for full disclosure we still don’t own any gold. We have been patiently waiting since last August, our sell date of a significant position in client portfolios, but have not seen the evidence that we are looking for. This graph of the GLD is holding the bottom of the cloud, a positive for now. We also can see in the RSI we are banging on the bottom, but its not enough, nor is the MACD singing Dixie.
If you like to receive bi-monthly newsletter, know more about our model portfolios or access an audio file of our investment philosophy, “Modern Financial Fiascos”, click on the link
http://www.castlemoore.com/investorcentre/signup.php.
CastleMoore Inc. uses a proprietary Risk/Reward Matrix that places clients with minimum portfolios of $500,000 within one of 12 discretionary portfolios based on risk tolerance, investment objectives, income, net worth and investing experience. For more information on our methodology please contact us.
CastleMoore Inc.
Buy, Hold…and Know When to Sell
This commentary is not to be considered as offering investment advice on any particular security or market. Please consult a professional or if you invest on your own do your homework and get a good plan, before risking any of your hard earned money. The information provided in CastleMoore Investment Commentary or News, a publication for clients and friends of CastleMoore Inc., is intended to provide a broad look at investing wisdom, and in particular, investment methodologies or techniques. We avoid recommending specific securities due to the inherent risk any one security poses to ones’ overall investment success. Our advice to our clients is based on their risk tolerance, investment objectives, previous market experience, net worth and current income. Please contact CastleMoore Inc. if you require further clarification on this disclaimer.
FP Trading Desk Headlines
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Expanding P/E multiples to drive S&P 500 higher”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/14/expanding-pe-multiples-to-drive-sp-500-higher/
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Small caps and high oil prices don’t jive”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/14/small-caps-and-high-oil-prices-dont-jive/
Weekly Review of Select Sector SPDRs
Technology
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are not relevant as long as its uptrend line is intact.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Materials
· Intermediate trend is down. Trend changed to down on a break below support at $36.40.
· Trades above its 200 day moving average and just above its 50 day moving average.
· Short term momentum indicators are trying to recover from oversold levels.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Consumer Discretionary
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but should be ignored as long as the uptrend line remains intact.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is positive.
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Industrials
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades above its 200 day moving average and recently bounced from near its 50 day MA.
· Short term momentum indicators are trending higher.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-February.
Energy
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $72.58 and resistance is at $76.50.
· Trades above its 200 day moving average and recently bounced from near its 50 day MA.
· Short term momentum indicators are neutral and trying to move higher.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-February.
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Consumer Staples
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are not relevant until its uptrend line is broken.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been neutral during the past six weeks.
Financials
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are not relevant as long as its uptrend line remains intact.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Health Care
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative, but could be changing.
· Trades above its 200 day moving average and recently bounced from near its 50 day moving average.
Utilities
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $34.14 and resistance is at $36.27.
· Trades above its 200 day moving average and is testing its 50 day moving average.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
10 Year U.S. Treasury Notes Futures (TY) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC March 14th 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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March 15th, 2012 at 10:01 am
I bought Barrick for my Mom’s account first thing this a.m.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:04 am
For myself I bought more HGU at $10.25, now have 20k shares of hgu between two accounts.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:19 am
Hi Michael,
Nice call on the gold trade yesterday! I bought yesterday and am playing it for a bounce to fill the gap not for a hold. We’re getting close. Thanks!
March 15th, 2012 at 10:21 am
Ron, did you buy HGU? If yes, at what price are you planning to exit? Thanks.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:24 am
Hi ya all,
Anybody here a nice chart to show me.
all my companies are simply killing me. there are a few over on the US side but don’t feel like trading US stocks right now.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:25 am
Slava,
I played it safer and bought xgd a few times between 21.10 and 21.24. Sell targets are 21.53, 21.60, 21.69.
Depending on how things play out I may jump on HGD at some time for a day trade.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:25 am
Hi Slava. I’m getting grey hair watching you trade. Nice move, so far, on HGD! I guess with inflation picking up in the US, the gold bugs are swarming!
March 15th, 2012 at 10:30 am
Hi Michael, I’m getting grey hair watching CMG move higher and higher.. still haven’t covered my 300 shares short position. I’ve been waiting for a pullback in CMG but nada!
By the way, your assessment of gold stocks was very accurate, thank you. What are your thoughts now? As long as gold holds steady here do you see a continued upward momentum in barrick and the like?
I already put a stop loss on half of my HGU position.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:30 am
Hi Slava,
Good move! I missed it totally. I could not go ahead and buy back HGU. Just afraid to get burnt again. At what price do plan to sell?
March 15th, 2012 at 10:31 am
Hi all. It’s interesting that ABX, the underperformer, is outperforming today…even more than HGU!
March 15th, 2012 at 10:31 am
Michael, Slava,
If gold can get above the 1650 area now, the next upside intraday target I see is 1663-1680. At that point I would be cautious as it could take one last dip back down to 1600 before rising. If it blows past 1680 then the reversal may be real. Just my take.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:32 am
Tony, how would you play AAPL right now? (i know you dont feel like trading US Stocks right now, but your analysis would be helpful!)
March 15th, 2012 at 10:32 am
Tony, how would you play AAPL right now? (i know you dont feel like trading US Stocks right now, but your analysis would be helpful!)
March 15th, 2012 at 10:34 am
Hi Martine, stop loss was already triggered on 10k hgu above $10.40.. I see that setting up a stop loss right after purchase and adjusting it higher if HGU is moving up is the only way to go (for me, anyways).
I might buy 5k shares back around $10.32.. will decide now.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:38 am
Hi Michael and Slava,
If gold can get through 1650 now, the next intraday target I see is 1663-1680. I would be cautious at that point as there could be a final downleg to 1600 before moving up for real. However, if it blows by the 1680 level, the reversal could already be in effect. Just my take.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:41 am
Michael, HGU was supposed to close at $10.14 yesterday but it closed at $10.19.. this is one of the reasons why HGU is not up as much percentage wise as it’s supposed to be.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:44 am
Sold my XGD at R1 pivot. Watching gold. If it breaks 1650 I may play HGU. If it breaks 1640 I may play HGD.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:46 am
Hi Slava. Well, the good about gold is that it’s oversold. However, IF (big IF) we get a correction, then gold will get hit and gold stocks will take a bigger hit. Right now the US market is up a tad, which should be higher given the economic data, and the VIX is up. Lots of mixed messages, so not even going to guess where gold is going.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:49 am
hmm.. well, the rally in gold stocks fizzled pretty quickly for now. HGU from $10.50 back down to $10.22.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:54 am
For those of you playing gold, thought you might have interest in UpTrend view : Whiteside is now posting on You Tube – this is his WEekly video on Gold & Silver:
Hope this helps … (I am not trading right now)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lAoF2fJMx8w
March 15th, 2012 at 10:54 am
HGU in the red now, very disappointing.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:56 am
I’m jumping back in at $10.17 or so..
March 15th, 2012 at 10:56 am
This is another view of Gold – Kitco site showing changes due to dollar and changes due to buy/sell. This is quite significant I think… again hope this is helpful..
http://www.kitco.com/kitco-gold-index.html
March 15th, 2012 at 10:57 am
Slava
At least you put a stop loss on it so you should be fine.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:59 am
Good morning mick, yes, stop loss was triggered on half of the shares above $10.40.. I bought 5k back just now.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:00 am
Rachel
its not that I don’t feel like playing the US stocks my us money is already tied up.
ok about the apple monster.
ouch
expiration is tomorrow the good news they are buying up to 625$ calls and selling the puts. bad news someone bought 605 puts and someone sold 565 calls for tomorrow. (don’t know where it will expire but someone is smarter then me on this one)
weekly options for march
now this is interesting they are buying all puts and selling almost all the calls except for the 590 and 595
btw 600 calls are being sold vol 3292 contracts wow there is nothing this big on either side of the weeklies for march,
April/May/June/July and even Jan2013 they are buying calls and puts at the same time.
April 820 calls sold for 1.79 net sale 1.47 so you do the math the option was worth 32cents that is almost a 5 bagger.
if we my assumption is right and apple makes its small correction hits the 9MA(553), if medium correction hits 18MA(541) otherwise I have no clues as to many people are bullish on aapl
Can you believe I sold it at 200$ and now its worth just shy of 600$ what a moron.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:01 am
Martine
Just saw your post from last night – sorry if I am late in saying thank you
I truly appreciate you taking the time to write to me. I keep forgetting to check out Equity Clock. Jon said that the markets tend to go down in April & May during election year… which is what I see and mentioned before on the big DJones chart for this year…. not that seasonality has had much real application for somelong time.
So you follow the Almanac? D you find it somewhat accurate?
March 15th, 2012 at 11:03 am
tony
I should feel luck to be such a moron as you
March 15th, 2012 at 11:05 am
tony, don’t even tell me about Apple.. I bought it over 7 years ago and sold within a month. Speaking of what would have been an amazing buy and hold.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:06 am
Ana
Thank you too for your comment last night. Yes, you are right – I have yet to decide what kind of a trader I want to be. I would follow Canuck 2004 in dividend investing as I do not want to spend so much time on the computer. But I do not hold his faith in the market future….
I would love to buy dividend stocks following a big crash
Meantime, I am more watching than anything…. thank you for telling me about your charting.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:07 am
Rol lew
from your good friend R.N Croft on the M-X.ca website
If you take the glass half full scenario predicated on rising global demand for coal, you might consider taking a bullish bet on a long-time Canadian coal miner Sherritt International Corp. (TSX: S, Friday’s close $5.84). More conservative investors would look at covered calls or naked puts, more aggressive traders, long calls.
For the conservative approach look at buying Sherritt at $5.86 and writing the July 6 calls at 40 cents or better. The four month return if exercised is 9.2%, return if unchanged is 7.3% with a downside breakeven of $5.46.
If you prefer the naked put strategy, look at selling the July 6 puts at 60 cents or better. With this trade, you are obligated to buy Sherritt at $6.00 per share until the July expiration. If the stock is above $6.00, the puts will expire worthless and you will simply pocket the premium received.
The risk is that the shares are below $6.00 in July at which point the puts would be assigned and you would buy the shares. You retain the premium, which means that your net cost to buy the shares is $5.40 per share ($6.00 exercise price less 60 cents premium = $5.40).
If you like the long call trade, look at buying the Sherritt October 6 calls at 60 cents or better.
I read the article this morning as soon as I wanted to put my bid shares were roaring 5.6% higher.
BTW did you put the financial trade on?
March 15th, 2012 at 11:09 am
mick and others, speaking of stop losses.. yesterday I bought hvu and immediately put a stop loss and adjusted it twice as hvu was moving higher. I put a stop loss and stop limit price which was several cents below stop loss price. To my dismay, as hvu started going down it hit my stop loss but only a small portion of shares were sold between stop loss and stop limit price.. the rest remained. Luckily I was close to the computer and hvu bounced back so I was able to sell the rest of the shares. This is something to keep in mind for something like HVU.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:11 am
Slava
Good point! If you have a few thousand shares, a stop loss with limit might not trigger the sale of all the shares.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:13 am
Slava
Sorry I missed the hgu trade at 10.17 pls take it off.
expiration Thursday/Friday are turnarounds just to make you nauseous enough to wanting to keep out of the markets indefinitely.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:13 am
mick, CMG at $402
March 15th, 2012 at 11:15 am
tony, I also rememeber buyin Viterra at $7 and selling at $8… I suppose I only have the patience for stocks which are going down
March 15th, 2012 at 11:16 am
So what are the predictions for VIX for the rest of the week?
March 15th, 2012 at 11:17 am
tony, are you buying goldcorp today?
March 15th, 2012 at 11:17 am
Also, anyone holding RIM? I bought some shares a few days ago.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:19 am
Ron, gold above $1,650 now..
March 15th, 2012 at 11:23 am
Sorry to those who own tcw.to
I have to write my rant as I can’t yell it out loud.
Burn Baby Burn…I sold it at a loss yesterday and today it decided to make a jump to 16.60 no but are you kidding me.
ok this is out lets get back to business.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:24 am
Slava,
Nope. It’s having trouble. Just moved lower upon hitting it. Careful with HGU.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:26 am
oil flash crash?
March 15th, 2012 at 11:26 am
Slava,
It’s taking another run at 1650.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:30 am
M-X
BTW for those interested in knowing option volume trades on the m-x yesterday. In my young viewing career of options, the M-X posted 5 companies with above 10K contracts
the most I ever saw was 2.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:32 am
Slava
re:cmg
Just went thru resistance at 402, if this can hold, next stop 410.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:32 am
tony, perhaps if you have a few minutes after markets close you can write another post on how you suggest I play CMG.. both up and down swings. The more detail the better – I would really appreciate it if you get a chance. Also, it sounds like I should sign up for the basic stockcharts.com service in order to have access to better charts.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:34 am
Sky,
I hit my target this morning around 10:45 and got out – but I just saw this. It’s one of those WTF???? moments. It dumped over $ 2.00 in less than 4 minutes. I’ll try to find out. Ray is playing both sides this morning and I think that he was still in SCO.
He must be grinning from ear to ear right now. Here comes his email.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:34 am
Slava,
you can play HGU between 10.20 and 10.30 but it’s not worth it. If gold breaks above 1650 and stays then HGU should be in play between 10.30 and 10.55 (much better).
March 15th, 2012 at 11:34 am
I shorted another 100 shares of cmg at $404.79.. now this 100 I’m covering today, gain or loss.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:37 am
Hi,
Can someone tell me why UCO is showing bid/ask of 44.43/44.47 when the chart
is showing 45.50 or so? Why the $1 discrepancy??? (I’m using an iTrade account).
March 15th, 2012 at 11:38 am
Moving on to the oil trade.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:40 am
Ha! Now the chart is showing the drop of about $1. Too weird.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:41 am
Ray, Wayne,
That triangle pattern we talked about yesterday is broken however the 103 target is almost already there. Do you see a bounce?
March 15th, 2012 at 11:42 am
Sky,
Just announced that the US is preparing to release Oil from it’s SOR inventory. This will drive price down.
Luckily, I’m out!
March 15th, 2012 at 11:43 am
Hi Slava. Before I leave for the morn, RIM reports soon, and you know how bad their earnings can be!
March 15th, 2012 at 11:44 am
TONY #5
In answer to your query on the $Cdn side:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SLF.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p37848117745
March 15th, 2012 at 11:48 am
Michael, thanks for the reminds, good point. I should get out by then.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:49 am
Wayne, thank you appreciate it as I am trading without tv, news etc. Tried to find an update on the net – nada.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:49 am
Ron/AB,
There usually is a bounce – but after this latest news, I’d stay away until we know how much is going to be released and for how long. Remember – this is election year!
March 15th, 2012 at 11:50 am
Slava
cmg here is a chart to better view how I think you could make your money back on cmg.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMG&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p61747298751&a=261080593
this company swings 10$ a day. oh on the chart when I say short you simply short all the shares you have
March 15th, 2012 at 11:51 am
Sky,
Here’s the news release. Notice that “it is rumoured” – that’s all traders need. Buy/Sell the rumor – Sell/Buy the news.
Or, as I used to say “Buy the sizzle – sell the steak”. LOL
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-futures-fall-below-105-a-barrel-2012-03-15
March 15th, 2012 at 11:52 am
Wayne,
I actually read that the US and UK were talking about tapping the oil reserves in a BNN newsletter before the open. I have 103.66 as a line in the sand for oil support. I’m just watching for now…too volatile.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:53 am
David could your Itrade chart have a 15min delay?
March 15th, 2012 at 11:57 am
Rami
Before I forget I posted my comment to your question last night.
March 15th, 2012 at 12:01 pm
CJ
thx for the SLF already traded in and out 4 times since its 18$ low. I simply miss the lousy supports (must be the scepticism that makes me do that
) and this time around I simply missed buying it back at my last sell 21.65$
March 15th, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Tony
any of the Cndn Life Insurance taking off. MFC, SLF, POW, PWR, GWO
What do you think of IGM?
March 15th, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Hi All,
Cog seems to want to go up from here if anyone interested.
Slava look at COG for a day trade
March 15th, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Wayne, Ron/ab
oaky, its me. The first time I left my desk we fell $2+, I just got back to my desk and we had a $1+ bounce. I am strapping myself in…
March 15th, 2012 at 12:08 pm
Tony,
I saw you post for me late at night yesterday.
We have to continue our talk about options later on today if you can.
Maybe after trading is over.
Thanks
Rami
March 15th, 2012 at 12:08 pm
Hello Tony I have noticed that you and others on this blog sometimes use option open interest to determine stock movement and I thought it might be useful to point out that in my experience this information can be very misleading as there is no way to determine if the call and put positions shown as open interest are held as short or long positions. Many are simply there because they are part of hedging strategies. The following excerpt is by Lawrence McMillan a recognized option expert.
“The option exchanges keep track of the amount of opening and closing transactions in each option series. This is called the open interest. Each opening transaction adds to the open interest and each closing transaction decreases the open interest. The open interest is expressed in number of option contracts, so that one order to buy 5 calls opening would increase the open interest by 5. Note that the open interest does not differentiate between buyers and sellers – there is no way to tell if there is a preponderance of either one. While the magnitude of the open interest is not an extremely important piece of data for the investor, it is useful in determining the liquidity of the option in question. If there is a large open interest, then there should be little problem in making fairly large trades. However, if the open interest is small – only a few hundred contracts outstanding – then there might not be a reasonable secondary market in that option series”.
March 15th, 2012 at 12:13 pm
Lots of cash in margin account as per recent stops triggered.
Today in margin account core added to ATP on the low (doubled up on it); added small position in SLF… first bite, too high today for large position. Planning to add more aggressively to all my insurance names on weakness in margin account.This sector is on the move.
Past little while added AQN to my core as well….a new name, have not owned this guy in many years, in better shape now.
Otherwise waiting for my monthly yield to roll in my RRSP, it will show up tomorrow …then I’ll see what to do with it.
BAC-N broke 9 bucks today. This is going to the low teens… for sure. Maybe high teens later. Over 5 plus years, they will restore their usual rich dividend (5% range)I see the stock in the 30 to 50 range eventually. It’ll take a while…
March 15th, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Tony, thank you very much for the chart. I need to summon the courage to take a huge loss and then start from scratch… I’m still certain that cmg will come down hard later in the year but for now it’s a day trade at best
March 15th, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Tony, thank you very much for the chart. I need to summon the courage to take a huge loss and then start from scratch… I’m still certain that cmg will come down hard later in the year but for now it’s a day trade at best
March 15th, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Tony, thank you very much for the chart. I need to summon the courage to take a huge loss and then start from scratch… I’m still certain that cmg will come down hard later in the year but for now it’s a day trade at best
March 15th, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Sorry, my message got posted three times for some reason.
March 15th, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Sky,
Are you male or female? Inquiring minds are asking.
Ron/AB
Yes – I just read that in BNN – so there must be something else brewing. I’ll ask some of my futures buddies.
March 15th, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Potential move in HGU any minute.
March 15th, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Ron/AB
I’ll just bet that Oil closes flat…
March 15th, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Thanks Tony appreciate it!
March 15th, 2012 at 12:37 pm
MCD recovering from recent downturn – I’m in for all the $US cash I have;
out of CHMG for small profit; now if only Amazon could recover……
March 15th, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Gold breaks 1650. Can it hold?
March 15th, 2012 at 12:46 pm
Bought HGU 10.18. Just sold at 10.33. Gold has reached next intraday level near 1660.
March 15th, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Sky, Ron/AB,
Now we get a denial of the release of the SOR.
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-15/report-of-agreement-on-oil-release-inaccurate-obama-aide-says.html
March 15th, 2012 at 12:52 pm
#78
Ron/AB – thanks for the heads up – spot on timing! Unfortunately only watched your call from the sidelines – yet another perfectly executed paper trade for my books!
I have a question regarding pivot points – anyone using the ones from FreeStockcharts? Not sure what kind of calculation they use – wondering if they are accurate (enough). Also, if anyone could post they fave pivot points calc would be great – looking for online version. Thank you.
March 15th, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Ron, congratulations and great analysis. I see the bids are building again for hgu around $10.29.. perhaps it can jump back to today’s high of above $10.50? Looks bullish to me.
March 15th, 2012 at 12:55 pm
Anna/TO
Here you go:
http://www.pivotpointcalculator.com/
March 15th, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Slava,
I thinks so too. Wanting to see gold break 1660 first. May jump back into HGU then.
March 15th, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Wayne,
Female, but with a twist: I hate shopping!
Okay, see, female, but not gaga style. so now you can’t kick me out of the greasers oil trading club just because I have a double x.
lol
March 15th, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Ron, gold stocks still lagging given the jump in gold and the overall strong equity markets.. I just don’t know what to make of it. Tight stop losses is the way to deal with it.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Wayne,
Thanks for #84!
March 15th, 2012 at 1:05 pm
I am surprised with this oil rumour, as it was reported last night on bloomberg that no decision was made. Here we go to where we started!
March 15th, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Sky,
Not to worry – I had a bet ($ 5.00) that you were a female! LOL I’m now 5 bux richer.
Yeuch…. Oil is headed back up big time now – it will probably close flat on the day. That’s what news can do to such a politically sensitive comm.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:06 pm
mick, CMG at $408.. OMG
March 15th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Slava, Anna,
Thanks. Gold is consolidating between 1655-1658 on a minute chart. Watch out for break either way.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Technicals improving on abx, need another green day tomorrow to confirm:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ABX.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p92039210580
March 15th, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Here’s one to watch (when your not busy with oil or gold)
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RVBD&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p33913402882
March 15th, 2012 at 1:15 pm
I have too much exposure in oil for it to continue on a smooth upward trajectory without a hitch.
Anyone interested in a Peter Grandich style bet? (re his gold to 2k before it hits 1k bet)
I bet 1mm that oil goes to 80 before it sees 180.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Wayne, thank you for the calc!
Silly question regarding pivot point data entry – “open” is it yesterday’s open or today’s – ie. for daytrade today do I input all yesterday’s #’s or today’s open price? Big thank you to anyone that can help to clarify this issue.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Anna/TO
You use yesterday’s OPEN/HIGH/LOW/CLOSE to plot today’s pivots.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:24 pm
There’s hardly a week goes by that Jim Puplava and friends don’t devote a segment to “peak oil”.
Last night there was some guy on coast2coast talking about how the planet is awash with oil.
What to believe … it’s all noise and entertainment.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:28 pm
Slava
re:cmg
May be no stopping this until it hits 414. However, it is close to crossing the 20,3 keltner , if it moves above that it may drop a bit within the next few days, but I do not think it will drop to your breakeven point. it is hard to keep a company that has an outstanding product down, especially if the economy is improving.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Gold broke above 1659 and has come back to retest it which is now support. It can hold nd bounce we have another run up. Otherwise it’s wait and see mode.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:32 pm
mick, that’s the thing – I don’t think the product is in any way “oustanding”.. Lots of great Mexican restaurants in the USA. With energy, labour and food prices inflation CMG is going to struggle. Also, their internationla locations are losing money if you read the report.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:33 pm
mick, at the same time I’ve been obviously completely wrong on CMG for the last 2 months.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:38 pm
Slava
I have not been to CMG but if it is busy which I assume it is, that is all that matters. It is like Timmy’s, I do not think there is anything special about their coffee,doughnuts etc, but it is convenient, and it is always busy.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:43 pm
HGU – In at 10.25
March 15th, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Tawny,
For the Almanach, I spent some time cleaning my paperwork yesterday and I came across a reference to it by Ron/BC. Their predictions seem to hold the road. I intend to keep track of their work more closely in the future. I am still skeptical of this amazing recovery. Markets look forward, but I guess I am not a believer. We are probably too early for any bloom and doom kind of scenario. It seems that this rally has legs. We will go probably higher by the end of this year after a few bumps along the road. Thereafter, it is far from being rosy.
Walter Murphy was also at BNN two days ago and he also expects the markets to correct over the next two weeks. Mind you it was before all the financials rallyed like there was no tomorrow. Maybe, his technical work would tell a different story right now.
I am like you. I would prefer not to have to spend so much time in front of my computer. I had good success with day trading initially, but I don`t seem to make it work consistantly right now. I also made a few expensive mistakes lately. Once your confidence is shaken up, it is hard to get back to it. I feel like I am working around the clock with not much to show for my efforts. I am probably doing something wrong. So, I am looking forward to better prospects. A short term correction would be more than welcome.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:46 pm
Ana,
What a crazy day for oil – have you traded your Hou/hod today?
Thinking of using your idea to trade them in my husband’s TSFA and I was planning to watch them closely today but it has turned out to not be a true representative day for these etfs.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Ron, something or someone is holding gold stocks down.. I know I’ve said it numerous times already.. this is a cause for concern, esp. for HGU holders. Gold stocks should be doing much much better. Perhaps we’ll see it in the final two hours? Still holding hgu or already out?
March 15th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Michael, I sold rim at a small profit.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:57 pm
HGU – Was stopped out at 10.27. A new intraday range for gold is established 1659-1666. Need to take a break. I have not even had breakfast yet and it’s noon here!!
Good luck to the gold and oil traders today.
March 15th, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Looks like I should have shorted Apple instead of CMG.
Anyone buying hvu?
March 15th, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Oil,
Falling again. Can not get back above $105.00.
March 15th, 2012 at 2:16 pm
TBE Twin Butte Energy
TA Transalta Utilities
Any buyers at these levels? Thanks
March 15th, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Just finished reading from last week. Nice to see everybodys input.
Michael,
Would appreciate your views on SLW-T
Tony,
Nice to see you feeling better. Post 41 Are you happy or sad about TCW-T
Rami/AB
I have 1/2 postion in CNQ-T at $38.15 & am wondering to average down!
CJ
You must be happy with BA
Slava
NTR
Please give my regards to EVE. Her gold/other analysis would be helpful, though its her right to decide to share info at this blog
March 15th, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Canuck,
Thanks for update on MFC,PWF etc. Still wishing I would have held MBT
March 15th, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Tony or Anyone,
I bot ODP on Mar. 9th at 3.21, put a stop at 3.02. It,s now at 3.48; do I raise my stop to just below the 18MA at 3.23? Also do I maybe put in a limit sell at say 3.59?
Thanks to all who reply.
March 15th, 2012 at 2:24 pm
Slava,
Re #110 – That’s a good observation. There is a lot of weird macro events happening (bonds lower, yields up, but rates being held low,etc). This is why for the time being I prefer to only daytrade what I see.
Just noticed the USD has a potential intraday reversal setting up which would be negative for gold.
March 15th, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Eve,
BTW it was you who recommended ODP for us to play after they reported earnings.
Thank You! Thank You! Thank You!
March 15th, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Muntazir,
I have a big position at CNQ at around $38 in My RRSP and I think I will wait for it for sometime. Not planning to varage down coz the cash is all tied up.
Thanks,
Rami
March 15th, 2012 at 2:32 pm
Ron/AB;
Thanks for your updates on gold, I am holdiing HBU and so far been doing well.
Would you be able to share what charts/material you are usiing when trading. Also could you please look at MFC and CCO both on TSX where you see them heading. Thanks.
March 15th, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Hi Muntazir and others. I just got out of ABX. Gold (and silver) stocks aren’t performing vs. the metal (I may soon take a small position in HZD).
As for SLW, it looks like it wants to continue to drop further so that it reaches oversold (likely below $32). This would be a good set-up because they will announce earnings on March 22, which should be decent.
March 15th, 2012 at 2:44 pm
BNN just said Richardson and Agruim are
March 15th, 2012 at 2:45 pm
BNN just said Richardson and Agruim both want a piece of VT
March 15th, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Slava: I would hold off on HVU for now. The VIX hit a multi year low on Tuesday dipping below 14 and today it is 15.25. The futures show April around 22, May 24, July 26, and Nov 28. Kicking the can down the road has been great for stocks thus far, however some catalyst will appear that will send fear up again. It could be Iran, who knows. The average is 20. Below 18 – no fear. Above 30 – huge fear. Watch it over the next 15 days. If we start moving towards 18, there could be a ride here. Buying today, is just a guess and a gamble.
March 15th, 2012 at 2:46 pm
#117-Muntazir
MBT,own in both accounts. Took profits in this name in margin account a couple weeks ago to by my little car, bought it back the next day at around the same price I sold it.
Now with the rule change on telcos, expect take-overs in this sector…. Like I said last Fall, this guy belongs in the 40s… not too late to get in. Just wait for the hoopla to die down a bit…I was going to add to it when the fed made their announcement….lol… just as I’m looking at it it takes off…lol
March 15th, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Kay,
For the gold day trade, I’m using the Forexpros site to track the gold price on a minute chart. I have horizontal price levels drawn on the chart and monitor price for breaks above/below a consolidation. I then monitor the stock I’m trading on stockcharts 5 minute chart with 4/9/18 ma’s and bolinger band indicators as well as macd, cci(20), and RSI(4).
I’ll get back to you later on MFC and CCO after the close.
March 15th, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Muntazir #116
I’m groaning with Tony on TCW.TO – still holding in TFSA can’t even apply the losses
– Also groaning with the Bomber also in TFSA!
BA has been coming back a little every day; but still $70.19 underwater at the moment.
TD.TO has been doing the same, $42.39 in red ink – first stock I bought way back in May!
March 15th, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Ray-K
Just thinking about Iran and the threat of war. Do you, or anyone else, know what usually happens in the markets in such an event ? I am old enough to know, and old enough to have forgotten
I was just reading
“As a reminder, virtually the entire non-parked naval fleet will be in the Arabian Sea and Persian Gulf in the next 4-6 days, where 3 aircraft carriers and one big-deck amphibious warfare ship are just waiting for the order.”
and that is why I put out the question?
March 15th, 2012 at 3:27 pm
OMG, want to clarify, I hope there is no war – but I read somewhere that it is inevitable.
March 15th, 2012 at 3:31 pm
Michael: Glad you are back on board, trying to decide whether I should sell MFC, chart look extended, sorry to bother you with so many questions but I am trying to spread my questions around. Much appreciate.
March 15th, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Kay,
Sorry, I didn’t know you were making a decision today on MFC. It is extended. It has major resistance at 14.03. Having said that, the inverse h&s pattern projects up to 15.75. I don’t know when you got in, but if you have profits I would at least take some off of the table, wait for a pullback then re-enter.
March 15th, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Hi kay. Re MFC, it’s overbought here and could have hit a triple top (bearish) or it may be forming a reverse head and shoulders (bullish). I don’t follow the stock, but with the good markets and rates rising, always a bullish thing for insurance companies. If it were me (and be glad you aren’t me!), I would sell part of your position and let things calm down (or heat up!).
March 15th, 2012 at 3:45 pm
GOLD – is at the bottom of it’s current intraday range of 1659 and 1666. Does not look great. Even if it were to go up, there is a downtrend line at 1680 where it could get to but if this were to occur it would likey happen after hours so there is no play for me.
March 15th, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Hi Ron/AB. I agree about gold. I was tempted to buy HBD, but layed off (and layed off HZD as well).
March 15th, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Martine
I hear you loud and clear… same sentiments. Bradley date is tomorrow… but I mentioned a couple of days ago, that since it can take any direction, and the markets had been going sideways for some time, perhaps the Bradley was an UP move breakout that occurred on Tuesday. Guess a few more days will tell. I am wondering what will happen if war or a very real “threat” of war occurs. Israel has the U.S. somewhat cornered.
March 15th, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Tawny: If Israel or the US attack Iran, the price of Oil will move up considerably. Think about what happened in Libya, WTI moved up to the $115 range. As Oil moves higher, it is negative on GDP, growth, etc. Volatility would return. No one can invest based upon using this assumption. Nevertheless, if tensions increase watch Oil. Go long.
March 15th, 2012 at 3:58 pm
Hi Ron/AB and Michael:
Thanks for your comments on MFC, I did not get filled but has good profit, however, I sold HBU so feeling more comfortable as MFC I can hold longer period. Hope you both had a profitable day.
March 15th, 2012 at 3:59 pm
Ron/AB
This might be of some interest. I’ve read his book – he takes the REAL longer term view. Here’s Peter’s thoughts on Gold. The key is that he measures gold in Swiss Francs, not USD.
http://peterlbrandt.com/
March 15th, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Ray-K
Thanks, but, I should have said, other than the price of oil going up…. that to me is a given. Just wondering about the rest of the market… Higher oil prices would of course be negative for the economic recovery too. I was just thinkiing immediate reaction to the markets and to Gold, US $. etc.
March 15th, 2012 at 4:09 pm
HOLA,, guys How is trading?? Read your posts and check out to see…
March 15th, 2012 at 4:10 pm
HOLA,, guys How is trading?? Read your posts and check out to see…
March 15th, 2012 at 4:11 pm
Hi Micheal,
I like the potential inverse H&S pattern for gold (also the H&S pattern in the USD) but at this point it’s not clear if the right shoulder has bottomed yet. The 200 EMA is at 1650 which is holding so far but there is the monthly S3 pivot at 1622 that I’m watching as a potential bottom for the right shoulder. Tech Talk mentioned the seasonality for gold as negative until summer but there is a bounce in April. So in the meantime I’ll just monitor the intraday action as a guide. It will be interesting to see which way the gold price goes in after hour trading.
March 15th, 2012 at 4:12 pm
If insurance plays are moving up because of the improving US economy and stock markets, plus the expectation that rates will rise in the future… this is NOT bullish for gold.
March 15th, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Here Is Why Everything Is Up Today – From Goldman: “Expect The New QE As Soon As April”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/here-why-everything-today-goldman-expect-new-qe-soon-april
March 15th, 2012 at 4:15 pm
Lin
Hi — you have been missed
March 15th, 2012 at 4:15 pm
Hi Lin:
Sounds like you are on some exotic island there, we are having balmy weather here, hope you are having a wondering time where ever you are. Bull market going great. See you soon on board.
March 15th, 2012 at 4:20 pm
Question to Board
Does anyone find my “newsy posts” of interest? Definitely NOT looking for thanks.
Just wondering if they are ever read or I am just wasting time – mine that is ???
March 15th, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Hi Lin,
Good to hear from you and hope you and your family are doing well.
Rami
March 15th, 2012 at 4:24 pm
Tawny,
I do check your news posts alot of times. Keep it up. Thanks.
March 15th, 2012 at 4:25 pm
I hope Eve will come back and starts posting again.
March 15th, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Tawny: I do read your post, you are doing a great service by posting these links. Thanks.
March 15th, 2012 at 4:29 pm
Hi Wayne,
Thanks for the article in #140. Very interesting and on topic re the gold chart patterns. I have not considered the gold chart in Swiss Francs before, I need to look into that a bit. The inverse H&S pattern is something to watch but the 200 day EMA and the previous lows are really key as well. The 200 EMA at 1651 is the first key level to watch. Then if the price gets below the sept and/or Dec lows (1535 and 1523) the inverse h&s pattern is negated but more importantly lower lows will have been recorded as he mentions in the article.
March 15th, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Tawny,
I like the newsy posts but tend to go back and read them after the close and after I have stopped trading. I think I’ll go get an espresso and then catch up what I missed. Thanks.
March 15th, 2012 at 5:05 pm
Tawny,
I read your posts, thank you for taking the time to do this.
Ron/AB,
Make that 2 expresso’s, be there in 5. lol
March 15th, 2012 at 5:07 pm
Ron/AB
I can understand, to a certain extent, why he charts gold in the swissy. But the central issue is how what you trade reacts to the move in the USD. All the derivatives trade in relation to the USD, so you should focus solely on the Gold/USD relationship.
His take on it is that “it charts well”. That’s not good enough for me. Other than the fact that the chart is easier to read, I don’t see any relevance. I assume that if his take on it is that the swissy gives you a much better grasp of the actual strength/weakness of gold, you can adjust your trade triggers accordingly. But, for us, in the real world, we still need to base our trades on the USD model.
FWIW, my money is on Silver. I used to trade it a couple of years ago and when it runs – IT RUNS!
I have been short silver in my partner’s account since the end of Feb when it broke down through 35.00 – I monitor it at the eod only. A lot less stressful than Oil – especially after today! LOL
Best!
March 15th, 2012 at 5:37 pm
Okay, guys and gals….. really, really, not looking for any thanks – I get so much help from the board. Just wanted to know whether they actually get looked at. I know T.A. is charts, but I am glad that my links are doing some good. Makes sense to read them after the markets close.
Any one have comments on the latest QE talk?
Martine, we may never get a correction. Skies the limit!
Ray-K, remember what I said in my forecst for the year (which was meant as a chuckle)? Markets, will go up. Once everyone is all-in. Wham O! Surprise.
But with more and more QE????????
March 15th, 2012 at 5:37 pm
Hi Wayne. Well, if silver is a lot less stressful, I’m never going to trade oil! I’ve been playing the short side of silver off and on, and have made a few silver dollars. But it’s not a relaxing hobby; almost as stressful as watching Slava take positions!
March 15th, 2012 at 5:40 pm
Wayne,
I agree, you have to watch the USD for commodities traded in USD’s (along with the underlying of course). Anyway, which book of his did you read (his bio said he had one in 1990 and one more recently in 2011)?
March 15th, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Michael,
LOL!!! I know that it can be quite volatile – but you need to ignore the noise and listen for the music! I don’t day trade it.
The most volatile market is still Nasty Gas – even at this level. It takes the prize!
BTW – my “handle” on the commodity chat sites is “Silverbear”. I get a lot of nagging over that!!
March 15th, 2012 at 5:48 pm
Ron/AB
“Diary of a Professional Commodities Trader” He uses NO indicators – just price patterns. He has held some of his positions for years.
March 15th, 2012 at 5:51 pm
Hi Michael,
You? Stressed? You seem cool as a cucumber. Congratulations to you and Wayne for making money off of silvers’ downward move. I don’t know how but I missed the swing trade on the downside (damn) and have only been daytrading.
March 15th, 2012 at 6:06 pm
Tawny,
Any talk about QE is normally positive for gold. As far as the stock markets go, it feels like a casino right now. How high can it go? Time will tell. Volume is problematic, but we might see more people piling in being afraid to have missed the rally and push markets even higher. Unfortunately, or maybe fortunately, I am not much of a roulette player. The odds are against you and the house always wins.
March 15th, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Hey guys, who is really stressed is your truly! The pressure is starting to get to me.. Juniors all pulled back, short postions are killing me.. dont’ know how to get out of this mess. Keep wanting to hit the sell button on everything at the same time.
Thoughts on FM.TO? It went up to $20.84 and subsequently closed at $20.11.. it’s really struggling.
March 15th, 2012 at 6:35 pm
Slava
yet you keep averaging down, keep trading against the trend, not sure what to suggest .
As for fm.to, looks like it is trying to build a base, if it breaks out to the upside, maybe it will run for a couple of days
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FM.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75733016019&a=246447496
March 15th, 2012 at 6:37 pm
Canuck,
Thanks for the heads up on MBT. I have built large positions in four
family accounts over the past few months. After you mentioned it back
then (somewhere south of $30), I followed it and liked its combinations
of low valuation and volatility, plus the dividend.
These kinds of stocks can really take the wrinkles out of an erratic
market that is subject to all sorts of unpredictable manipulations
and emotions.
March 15th, 2012 at 6:40 pm
For a little spice, Petrobakken has come off a little
and may be attractive here (still, unbelievably, below
book value) though it is up well over 100% in last few
months). Nice rising dividend.
For a spec play, talison lithium has also pulled back
a little after a nice bounce last week. Volume is picking
up and it is getting covered by talking heads on BNN…
March 15th, 2012 at 6:44 pm
Must share this (re several indicators suggesting a market top in March):
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_12/mchugh030412.html
Slava,
read above article for your shorts.
re FM:
REMEMBER: stocks LEAD the commodity! The fact that copper stocks like FM, TCK.B, and FCX are not really participating in copper’s up move in price (see note below) suggests the stocks are telling us that copper is coming down in price. Copper is known as “dr. Copper” as it shows the “health” of the economy. This is the seasonal period for copper – BUT, just like in March- April of 2010 to 2011, copper stocks were performing poorly as compared to copper itself. Thus, in those years, the copper stocks were forecasting that copper was coming down in price AND THAT was telling us, the economy was not as healthy as it appeared – stock markets followed suit soon thereafter (as in, they came down).
NOTE:
What I mean by copper stocks are not really participating in copper’s price moves up:
Copper price is currently at a similar price level that was seen in both January and February of being at or above $3.90 – when copper was at these price points, TCK.B was over $40 (with a high reached in January of just over $44) and FM was over $23 (with a high reached in Jan of $25). TCK.B is struggling right now to get to just $37 and above – FM is struggling to get back to resistance of $23 – with copper price being close to the high seen in Jan of $3.99 (as it was currently at $3.90 today), then the copper stocks not reflecting copper’s price is telling the tale – and the tale is that copper price is coming down – and so then will the equity markets. The only way this scenario gets negated is if the copper STOCKS finally make big moves up in price such that TCK.B goes back to $40+ and FM gets back to $23+ – IF those stocks CAN’T make those kind of price moves IN their seasonally strong period for copper, then the copper price and the equity markets will be coming down – in the very near term – as they are showing us the “health” of the economy can’t be as great as the equity markets are portending it to be – thus, equities are too high for the current health of the economy and will therefore, come down.
eve
March 15th, 2012 at 6:59 pm
Tawny, Kay and Rami
Thanks. Have fun in the market…. Remember what I said. I wouldn’t buy VXX…
Take care and will check out you guys again…
March 15th, 2012 at 7:00 pm
Well I decided to keep Rim after buying a week or so ago at 14, kind of contrary as analysts are seemingly giving bad results out before rim does. I’ve always made money on this stock whether at 70 or over 100 and recently lower here for a swing trade. Hopefully I can do the same this time. I obviously sold Viterra too early, it was up another buck or so today but oh well, a good profit never hurts having bought it in the 10′s. I’m getting killed on Tck.b and pd, great on Canucks past recommendation on Mbt. Too busy in life and work to trade so just try things here and there. Oh, cco was good too, now if tck and pd go up??? Not that anyone gives a fly…ing f. BUT, Have a good evening all. Hniel/Kingston
March 15th, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Tawny et al
So, putting some of the above threads together what I get is: hightened mid-east tensions leads to increase in oil price which leads to slowing U.S. growth which leads to QE whatever which leads to completion of the inverse h&s on gold and hence makes the glittery stuff a big buy at these levels. Is that the “bottom line”? Interesting news story yesterday on how Pres. A.. of Iran was summoned before council and tried to “joke” his way out of the situation. I’ve always seen him as one with a pretty well developed sense of humor. Anyway, the point being I guess that there appears to be some internal political issues in Iran as well. How that may play into the conflict remains to be seen
March 15th, 2012 at 8:25 pm
Hello Eve:
Nice to see your post again, well I post a note for you few days ago that we missed you on board. I am truly sorry for all that was happening last week, please know that I am thinking of you but had no way to communicate with you except here.
March 15th, 2012 at 8:27 pm
Hi Eve, so great to see you back here giving us another excellent update. Thank you so much for taking the time to post this. I’ve covered most of my short positions since I just coudn’t take it anymore. Only 1/2 of lulu left and 400 cmg shares. Perhaps I can stick with these two positions for another week… to see if the reversal materializes. Also very good points about tck.b and fm.
March 15th, 2012 at 8:49 pm
Hi Eve,
Thanks for the article in #169. You mentioned copper stocks underperforming the underlying commodity and may be telling of further downside for copper. I noticed this as well and am wondering if the same may be occuring with gold stocks. We saw today that gold bounced up but most gold stocks underperformed. Just a thought.
March 15th, 2012 at 8:52 pm
Slava you have mail.
March 15th, 2012 at 8:54 pm
Eve; Nice to see you are back.
March 15th, 2012 at 9:04 pm
Ron/AB: Much appreciate your help today, wondering if you can look at CCO please.
March 15th, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Hi Kay,
CCO is a mixed picture from a TA perspective. The price closed at 22.92. It went down and bounced up off the S1 pivot support at 21.45. That’s positive. However the price closed below the 50 ma at 23.02 and there is more significant support at 21.94 and also at the S2 pivot of 21.45. It could bounce here or go down further to test the 21.94 support. I don’t like the look of the 4/9/18 ma profile. Both the 4 and 9 ma are pointing downward and the price is before the 4ma. I would wait for a confirmation of the direction before taking any position at this time.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:06 pm
Gene
Thx for your post and you are totally right about open interest
I was in the wrong in the past have to rectify my study notes on the subject.
For every one option put to action you need one to counteract otherwise you end up getting more interest for that strike price. so if one wants to buy a put you need one to sell him this put at a conviened price otherwise you end up with one extra bid not filled if we can put it that way and they add up on the open interest.
Also my BAF on this website Eric Wheatley
explained it in his column.
we could put open interest in words would be lets say we have 100 customers at a bar as long as there is some beer behind the counter your 100 customers will be satisfied as soon as you run out of beer you will end up with an open interest for beer so lets say we run out of beer at 90 then you have 10 open interest for beer. and if 30 new customers come in and order beer well your open interest increases by 30 so sum it up you get 40.
but as soon as new cases arrive the open interest drops to nil IFF both buyers and sellers are satisfied and we have no more beer to sell. but if you still have 15 bottles of beer then remain with an open interest of 15.
Eric will be proud of me on this one.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:13 pm
Tony,
Re: 180
Luv it!!!
b
March 15th, 2012 at 10:42 pm
Neil Re #172
Chuckling while reading your post – it was amusing.
But I guess we should not really be amused… as the economic situation is not funny. 
March 15th, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Bradley Turn date due tomorrow. The last 6 dates have pretty well nailed it.
March 15th, 2012 at 10:51 pm
Re copper prices:
It is being stated by JP Morgan that China is already in midst of a Hard Landing.
http://www.ifamagazine.com/news/china-in-midst-of-hard-landing-jp-morgan-strategist-says/5371/
Europe: Recession (if not the D word)
China + Europe = global contraction = reduction in copper demand (and other commodities) (= 99 bottles of beer on Tony’s Option Bar #180. LOL)
Re Teck Resources…. is it still correct to include TCK.B as a major copper company when 62% of gross profits in 2011 came from coal, 24% copper and 14% zinc. ???
March 15th, 2012 at 10:53 pm
BJ
ODP
If you are playing for a daytrade, I would say this:
It likes to trade like all most of the others on the 4MA, put a stop below 18MA(11 centes below) would keep you safe if it breaks below this but if reaches near and bounces back your still in the game. and this is what we want.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:03 pm
I looked at Bradley turn dates for 2009 and they were completely inaccurate… so we’ll see how it plays out this time.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Muntazir
like CJ this is grunting growling grrrrrr!!!! … tcw, bbd, bnp ok all small loses below 6%
I was tempted with AKS but couldn’t put all my money at work so I went else where and was punished by it.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:06 pm
So is tomorrow likely to be a good day to trade hvu given the options expiration, etc.
March 15th, 2012 at 11:23 pm
Hi Slava. I sold my TVIX today (I wasn’t telling anyone that I had bought it on Tuesday). I made a few bucks (literally). I may play the volatility game tomorrow.
I’m also interested in shorting the NASDAQ through QID. Yesterday, they had a technician (Doolittle?) that stated that Apple had gone parabolic and was due for a fall. She also had indicated a week ago to short gold and silver, tho was a couple days early.
Nite nite!
March 15th, 2012 at 11:32 pm
# 167-David
RE: MBT
Don’t forget a maximum of 5% hold for any position. Better to have lots of small positions, keeping the good ones, dumping the ones that are not working out ASAP….let your winners ride and cull your losers.
Investors get into trouble when they have too much in any one name or sector…..
March 16th, 2012 at 12:02 am
The Cabot Market Letter posted last night [March 14, 2012]:
“Remain bullish. The market remains in a firm uptrend, with the buyers
clearly in control. All of our market timing indicators look great, as
does the action of leading stocks… further potholes like we saw last
week would not surprise us in the least, but the main goal at this point
is to give your best performers room to breathe, giving them a chance to
grow into bigger winners.”
Cabot is still 86% invested but says it might add two more stocks (the
model portfolio can have a maximum of 12 stocks). Its last additions:
Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. – BWLD
Michael Kors Holdings Ltd. – KORS
From;
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/broken-bull-bouncing-back-2012-03-15