ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Thursday March 22nd
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 8 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to news that the HSBC China Purchasing Managers Index for March fell from 49.6 to 48.1.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the weekly initial jobless claims report. Consensus was an increase to 355,000 from 351,000 last week. Actual was a decrease to 348,000.
Exxon Mobil slipped $0.41 to $85.60 despite an upgrade by JP Morgan from Underweight to Neutral. Target is $92.
Conagra is expected to open higher after reporting higher than expected third quarter earnings.
McDonalds slipped $0.70 to $96.02 following news that the companies Chief Executive Officer will retire at the end of June.
FedEx fell $2.37 to $94.50 despite reporting higher than expected fiscal third quarter earnings. However, the company offered lower than consensus fourth quarter guidance.
Lululemon fell $1.07 to $73.00 despite reporting higher than consensus fourth quarter results. However, the company guided first quarter earnings below consensus estimates.
Technical Watch
FedEx Corp. (NYSE:FDX) – $93.45 fell 2.5% despite reporting better than consensus fiscal third quarter earnings. However, its guidance for the fourth quarter was less than consensus. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $87.90 and resistance is at $97.05. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since September. Short term momentum indicators are overbought. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of April. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock closer to support at $87.90.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/clip_image001110.png "clip_image001[1]")
FedEx Corporation (NYSE:FDX) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image167.png "clip_image002[1]")
Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) – $85.60 eased 0.5% despite an upgrade by JP Morgan from Underweight to Neutral. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Resistance is at $87.83. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Seasonal influences are positive until mid-June. However, short term momentum indicators are overbought and strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since the end of December. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to support at $82.74.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/clip_image003110.png "clip_image003[1]")
Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image441.png "clip_image004[1]")
McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE:MCD) – $96.02 slipped 0.7% after the company’s Chief Executive Officer announce his retirement at the end of June. The stock has a deteriorating technical profile. Intermediate technical trend is down. The stock recently broke support at $97.02. Resistance is at $100.58. The stock recently broke below its 50 day moving average at $98.88, but remains above its 200 day moving average. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-December. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of May. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to its 200 day moving average at $90.97.
![clip_image005[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/clip_image00517.png "clip_image005[1]")
McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image006[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image267.png "clip_image006[1]")
Weekly Review of Select Sector SPDRs
Technology
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are irrelevant as long as the uptrend line remains intact.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Materials
· Intermediate trend is down. Support is at $35.66 and resistance is at $37.72 and $37.83.
· Trades above its 200 day moving average and just above its 50 day moving average.
· Short term momentum indicators are trending higher.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Consumer Discretionary
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades well above its 50 and 200 day moving averages
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are irrelevant as long as the uptrend line remains intact.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
· Seasonal influences are positive
Industrials
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing early signs of rolling over.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Energy
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $72.30 and resistance is at $76.21.
· Trades above its 200 day moving average and just above its 50 day moving average.
· Short term momentum indicators are neutral.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Consumer Staples
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are irrelevant as long as the uptrend line remains intact.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has returned to negative.
Financials
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are irrelevant as long as the uptrend line remains intact.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Health Care
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are irrelevant until the uptrend line is broken.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Utilities
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $33.83 and resistance is at $35.94.
· Trades above its 200 day moving average, but fell below its 50 day moving average yesterday.
· Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative
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Nikkei 225 USD Futures (NK) Seasonal Chart
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “What sectors are best positioned to return cash hoard”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/21/what-sectors-are-best-positioned-to-return-cash-hoard/
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC March 21st 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: FDX, MCD, XOM
March 22nd, 2012 at 4:00 am
To Darcy and others about options.
there have been some modification to this post if you compare it with when I first wrote it.
thx to rol lew, lin and my TAPBAF to being great tutors as I am learning.
so if anybody copied it I think this one is more accurate. and I will accept you throwing darts at my picture, but I am learning to as I progress probably the reason I haven’t traded options until now as I am constantly learning.
darn this adds up to three pages long
Options 101
When you are willing to invest in a security but don’t know what to do about a security since the charts seem to have no sense of direction use the options to guide you.
Options Dailies expire the 3rd friday of the month.
Options Weeklies expire at the end of the month.
One option contract represents 100 shares.
We have the cboe.com for stocks that trade on the US and the M-X.ca for those who trade in Canada.
I prefer the US because you can see what traders in the pit are doing (buying or selling).
We have 2 sides to options calls and puts. And this can be split each in 2
Calls can be either seen as a resistance (selling or red) or unlimited profits.(buying)
Puts can be seen as a protection to downside (buying or green) or support(selling).
So lets start with the calls seen as resistance.
If ABC is trading at 50$ and you see 55$ calls being sold this is considered a resistance in my book so at 54.50 I would put a stop loss if it breaks above 55 you sell for that extra money cause it will come down..
If instead they would be buying every call from 50 to 58 and then it stops how high can it go I don’t know (probably you can find a put traded higher or a following month call higher strike price) if you see no clear evidence when it will turn around look at the open interest volume for discrepancy. If open interest hovers around 1000 up to 59$ and then at 60 drops to 200 and then picks up again this could be your sign where to put your trailing stop.
Look at rachel’s trade of google late last year I had exactly this scenario open interest fell to 0 at 630 before picking up again. I told her this was where I taught price would pullback being a novice in options I told her to sell instead I should have told her if it breaks above 630 put a trailing stop underneath price flew to 670 before retreating.
Now puts traded as insurance policy
Puts are considered as an insurance policy protection giving the owner of the policy the right to have the security fixed at a set price.
When a security ABC is at 50$ and most of the trading is buying puts you know this is not where you want to be putting your money to work, because the HFs are buying insurance(usually after a big run). You can look at open interest volume again for discrepancy to see where it should stop falling this could be your next support (buying opportunity)
If instead they would be selling every put from 50 to 40$ this means they are being optimistic so this could mean a turnaround is about to happen.
Now if on either side of a spread be it call buying or put selling, you see one value not being traded 0 volume(probably a MA close by) ask your self why is this value not important to the big HFs.
So if they are buying calls 50 to 58 and at 55 there is no trading being or selling the calls this could be a warning sign.
If going into the w-e you get the urge to buy a security and you see people lining up to buy some puts be sure price will open much lower on monday.
Now if you have bought a security and you either see selling on both sides or buying on both sides wonder why. Usually this will be done prior to an event (earnings, w-e)
How far should you look into a security here is a great example of me doing a stupid move.
Back in December of 09 I saw UUU.to going for 6$ in july, it was trading at 3 and change, so wow 2x your money that ain’t bad bet so foolish me I bought it, oh yes it did go to 6$ to be exact it moved all the way to 7$, problem it was so far ahead that in the mean time a Russian company took a stake (they added a special dividend) but it didn’t stop CDN HFs from bashing it, price droped I sold it because of the bashing at 2.5, price fell to just above 1.5$ in the month of may (when everyone was scared of it) then it moved to 7$
Always try to look at a 2-4 month ahead don’t try to go 6months or longer (events can kill your portfolio uranium got killed because of the earthquake in march 2011.
Now what is open interest?
I will put it as I did not so long ago in a way Eric will approve
You own a bar you have 100 customers but have 90 bottles of beer, once you run out of bottles you have 10 unsatisfied customers asking for beer, so your open interest is 10, you get another 24 bottles your 10 customers drop to 0 but you are left with 14 extra bottles and you are the unsatisfied seller.
Open interest is basically orders of buying and selling that are not satisfied where you either have to much supply not enough demand or have to much demand not enough supply this is usually where HFs put there bets on read Friday March 9th commentary from Eric Wheatley on this matter.
cboe.com
under the quotes and data tab
use the delayed classic quotes
choose all options
m-x.ca
there less volume on the montreal exchange, most security that make the big 10 are the big banks, suncor, tck, cnq, ABX some material stocks and some etfs such as xiu, xfn, xeg
Occasionally you will see some bce, bbd,d, cos and other big securities
And at times they go big on companies we rarely see on the top 10 like daylight this means someone probably knows something is in the making but don’t want to spill the beans
On Friday October 7th there was a big volume on daylight it had the most volume for that day and on the Monday it was bought for 10$.
March 22nd, 2012 at 6:49 am
Ron/AB,
re.#103 yesterday
Yes, the ScotiaItrade & ScotiaMcleod have been planning this merger/common-site/platform etc. since late summer/early fall of last year. I saw those screen snapshots of merged platforms in Nov. last year. Things are coming together finally sometiime in April I hear.
Also, heard that RBC Action Direct is changing many features/pricing etc. effective Apr.2nd. One of the things that I was looking forward with RBC Action Direct was the ‘trade consolidation’ feature and I have been told that they are going to cancel this program.
I guess, Ray-Kitchener might know more about these changes as he uses this particular feature very well with his multiple UCO/SCO Oil Trades daily with them.
If they really cancel this ‘trade consolidation’ feature, then who else (other brokers)is left that provides this? Pl. let me know if anyone has any ideas on this.
March 22nd, 2012 at 6:58 am
re. brokerage selection/comparision
Few days ago or may be last week there were some posts here about looking for right broker that would suite your trading/investing style/frequency/lots etc.
Here is a site that someone posted few months back – if someone missed it back then
http://www.cbc.ca/news/interactives/online-brokers/
March 22nd, 2012 at 7:40 am
Re. Gold:
Why Gold Looks Terrible (Part II)
http://www.forexpros.com/analysis/why-gold-looks-terrible-%28part-ii%29-117828
March 22nd, 2012 at 9:24 am
Tony,
Many thanks, I see you really did have a sleepless night. Hope you can get some catnaps in today at work.
DS
March 22nd, 2012 at 9:41 am
HGD is up and HGU is down equally – what fun to watch from the sidelines!
March 22nd, 2012 at 9:45 am
mick, I covered my lulu short from yesterday first thing this a.m. – made a bit of money on 300 shares.
March 22nd, 2012 at 9:46 am
I’m now full of regrets for not having sold at least some of my hgu yesterday. Hindsight 20/20..
March 22nd, 2012 at 9:50 am
It’s hard to imagine but CMG is up. Again. Always.. how many times have I said it? It’s the weirdest stock on this planet.
March 22nd, 2012 at 9:51 am
P.S. But the good thing is that I’m watching CMG from the sidelines..
March 22nd, 2012 at 9:51 am
So what now for gold stocks? Predictions?
March 22nd, 2012 at 9:56 am
Gold broke minor support then bounced a little to resistance. I’m out. This is a good example of taking only small (1/3) positions on bottoming patterns that have not been confirmed.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:00 am
Ron, is there a chance that the current share prices of gold stocks already reflect lower bullion price? In other words, can GLD and GDX sometimes become negatively correlated?
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:00 am
Hi Michael,
You’re observation of Goldman Sucks’ bullish equities report a sign of the top may have been right on.
BBD.B pulling back worked out as well.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:01 am
mick, just like you predicted – Darvas box didn’t lie.. there was no reason to rush into TCW yesterday.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:02 am
Momo stocks like pcln and cmg pushing to new highs..
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:06 am
Hi Ron/AB. As an ex-banker, I’m soooo suspicious of the Goldman types. Their bullish report on equities should have been published three months and a couple thousand points ago!
The Bomber has another gap at $4.05, but wouldn’t be surprised if this insignificant gap doesn’t close anytime soon.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:11 am
I would appreciate if someone could comment on fm.to.. Thanks.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:20 am
(BBD.B-T)
Industrials – Transportation & Aerospace 21Mar12: C$ 4.18
1-Year Target: C$ 6.00
1-Year ROR: 46.0%
Risk: High
Rating: 1-Sector Outperform
Recent Update Text as of 21MAR12.
We provide some thoughts on the BBD/COMAC announcement.
Commonality on the CSeries/C919 will be on pilot interface, electrical systems,fuselage, and customer service. Pilot interface is a key factor as it should
help to reduce training costs for airlines even though separate type
certification will be required on both aircraft. On the electrical system, both
aircraft are likely to have a similar Hamilton-Sundstrand system, which should
help costs and provide maintenance-related efficiencies for airlines. The
benefits will be similar on the fuselage, which is being sourced by Shenyang for the CSeries.
The risk of technology transfer to China is always an ongoing issue; however, BBD has managed this well in the past at BT.
We see this move as a positive step for the CSeries to gain momentum in China.
The C919 has garnered 235 orders/options all of which are from Chinese
airlines. BBD’s forecast for 7,000 planes in the 100-149 seat segment assumes
~1,400 planes in China and this move provides them with a good opportunity to
gain strength in that market. We maintain our 1-SO rating on BBD shares.
Scotia Capital Inc. – Canada
(Of course this is a trade NOT for an RRSP.-Canuck2004)
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:22 am
Hi Michael,
I didn’t know you were an ex-banker, no wonder you have the jump on the rest of us. Thanks for sharing your insights, please keep it up!!
The resource stocks seem to be the weakest right now (even though there are some exceptions that seem very cheap). There was weak Chinese Mfg. data that is probably adding to the weakness in resource stocks.
BBD.B and RIM are two non-resource stocks that still seem good.
Starting to look at VXX, HSD and the like.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:26 am
Ron, I think HGU looks okay for a trade here at $9.76 with a tight stop loss.. Gold slightly recovering, gold stocks not selling off too badly, my gold juniors are all flat (always a good sign). Of course I myself is fully invested and won’t be adding more to hgu.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:30 am
SLAVA:
FM.TO – For whatever my opinion is worth; no signs of turnaround from its current free fall; below the lowest S3 Pivot(f) support; All indicators are neutral to downturning; in bearish territory below Ichimoku cloud, oversold, with no sign of recovery: clearly too late to short and not ready for going long. 18 above the 9 above the 4ma. I did not check options. Client phoned to say she had a flat tire so I had time to answer your request but DYODD!!
Have not checked
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:31 am
Is anyone else having problems with ScotiaItrade all of a sudden? I can’t seem to log in..
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:36 am
Hi Ron/AB. Hardly a jump…more like a stumble! Just as an aside, and like the Goldman exec that resigned stated, the banks are in it for themselves. Years ago I was in a meeting with a senior exec who wanted some training to teach employees about employee contributions to the company and shareholder value. When I said that we needed to also address what was in it for the employee, he cancelled the training! Unbelievable.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:38 am
OOPS! Lost the balance of the sentence in #22 Slava; “I have not checked the options” LOL
With HGD in positive territory, HGU in negative territory and the index they both track ($SPTDG)down $2 + WHY ARE YOU CONSIDERING HGU???? I really am trying to understand how your head works – I am puzzled (and on the sidelines re gold!)
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:39 am
Slava,
same sh*t here with itrade!
need to trade on few equities that I entered earlier & now stuck
their merging of platforms with mcleod is possibly going to give us more chills until mid-may…I fear.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:40 am
CJ, what goes down must come up..
or something like that.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:41 am
Confirmed: Cannot log in to iTRADE at the moment here either!
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:42 am
gmsa, I just called Itrade and after 7 minutes on hold I was told that their online system is down, they dont know when it will be fixed and that I should speak with a trader if I want to place a trade.. This is truly terrible.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:42 am
SLAV #27 – is that your comment on FM.TO or the golds???? Or maybe both???
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:45 am
CJ,
Can you sue the heck out of ScotiaItrade on slava & my behalf pl.?
thx for the info. slava.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:46 am
CJ, gold stocks.. they have been depressed for too long… most of them are reflecting $800 gold not $1,600 gold.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:47 am
Itrade being down like that is costing me money.. I would have shorted CMG, cant do it through Investorline
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:50 am
congratulations to those who were crazy enough to buy hvu yesterday.. its having a good day.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:50 am
Watch out iTrade, class action law suit brewing in the tech talk forum.
I can’t get in either.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:53 am
Slava,
Re, #13
Yes I think the gold stocks usually does lead bullion (especially in a bull market)and some of the weakness in the bullion is already reflected in the stocks. One exception to note, is that in a violent market correction where fear spikes, depending on what the catalyst is, sometimes gold will hold up better while the the stocks get hammered because of the safe haven characteristic of gold.
One scenario is for the GLD to go doen further to 154-155 (1600 gold) and then go up to complete that inverse h&s pattern. That is why I tried to play the HGU as I thought it might be predicting (leading) this and the technicals were also setting up. But, the gold stocks did not follow through, maybe it still will but I’ll wait for the technicals to indicate this first. As I write this, I see gold has recovered already so who knows…wait for a confirmation.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:53 am
Ron, a positive sign is that this morning GDX did not drop below Tuesday low at $48.45 or so.. bounced off that immediately. I think it bodes well for gold stocks. Your thoughts
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:56 am
Ron, we posted at the same time.. thank you for your note.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:56 am
HGU is in classic down trend with lower lows and lower highs. It is anyone’s
guess when the train tracks will head north. Don’t look for gold equities to follow
price of bullion because it hasn’t been doing that until now.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:01 am
David,
re. Itrade & my earlier post# 2 to Ron/AB
because of their platform mergers between two entities, I fear more headaches on the way, until all things are sewn firmly.
merger is pushed back from mid-apr. I hear
Just finished placing 3 orders with their trading desk over the phone for 3 positions. Watching LULU, CP & POT now.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:02 am
Ron/AB #36
$SPTGD now down over $3 Where is the “recovery” ?? Gold futures down also.
I’m staying away – have so little money to play with, the few cents movement on HGU or HGD is not worth the risk.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:03 am
FCX at -3.9%.. ouch. I was planning to buy it but will hold off for now.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:07 am
Itrade is still down.. so frustrating
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:08 am
CJ,
#41
I’m not advocating playing the gold stocks, just the opposite. There is a potential inverse H&S gold pattern scenario but it has not been established yet. I am saying I am NOT playing the gold stocks until the technicals indicate otherwise.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:09 am
I recall the “good ole days” when gold was often spanked on Friday. Such event has not been so obvious recently.
I wouldn’t mind a 5% take-down tomorrow.
Any chance we’ll get it?
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:09 am
Just got back in to Scotia trading plaatform.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:12 am
Slava: China’s PMI was down again this past month (maybe manipulated – who knows). Less need for copper plus price is down. A flight to the US$ also. Also the VIX is up to 16.42, still low, however a little fear is creeping in But don’t worry – we always have burritos and Iphones to save the day. At least you can eat.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:13 am
gmsa, you are watching cp and lulu as potential shortsÉ
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:14 am
ScotiaITrade issue:
bob.grant@scotiabank.com
President of ScotiaItrade
Just sent him an e-mail from myside…hope others do the same.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:15 am
Hmm.. Im still unable to log in. Oh well.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:17 am
Slava,
I shorted LULU this AM near 74level B4 the Itrade platform crashed. Already have enough cp shorts.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:25 am
Hi Ray,
Do you think that UCO gap will be filled?
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:32 am
gmsa, LULUs numbers were pretty incredible.. guidance is weaker than expected but Im sure they will be revising the numbers in the near future, they tend to do that.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:34 am
Rob, Goldcorp and Kinross green now.. lets see what happens
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:35 am
Slava,
re. LULU
here is from briefing.com – not really incredible.
Lululemon Athletica (LULU $72.75 -1.43) reported fourth quarter earnings of $0.51 per share, $0.02 better than the Capital IQ Consensus of $0.49, while revenues rose 51.4% year/year to $371.5 million versus the $361.97 mln consensus. Comparable stores sales for the fourth quarter increased by 26% on a constant dollar basis versus the low to mid 20s guidance.
Gross profit for the quarter increased by 45.7% to $209.0 million, and as a percentage of net revenue gross profit decreased to 56.3% for the quarter from 58.5% in 4Q10. The company issued mixed guidance for the first quarter with EPS of $0.28-0.29 versus the $0.30 consensus and revenues of $265-270 million versus the $257.28 million consensus, The company issued guidance for fiscal year 2013 with EPS $1.50-1.57 versus the $1.61 consensus with revenues of $1.30-1.325 billion versus the 1.3 billion consensus.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:36 am
Ron/AB: I am not sure at this point. I want to wait to see what the fallout of Obama’s announcement this a.m. is. We touched 104.50 this a.m., which is the last 5 week average low. Oil has been trading in an average range between 104.50 and 108.50. Since I have been tracking it, it sits in a range for about 5 weeks or so. This may be the time to go long, however I am little unsure whether the range may be shifting. The one issue that still is hanging on is the Iranian fear. This will keep Oil up.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:39 am
Ray-Kitchener,
Further to my comments @ post # 2.
RBC action direct is planning to cancel the ‘trade bundling’ feature I am told. Is it true? They say effective Apr.2nd.
thx
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:44 am
Slava,
where do you think the LULU goes by 2moro end? thx.
Michael,
SLW @ NYSE where do you see it after the earnings? currently sitting pretty @ 32 US support line. thx.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:46 am
Ray,
Right now i’m looking at that 104.50-105.25 range. If it can break that to the upside then 105.70.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:49 am
gmsa: I have not heard of that. i will advise when I do. Did you see that on their website?
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:49 am
gmsa, hard to tell but lulu is a very strong stock.. did you notice how it ran up upon opening as the markets were going down.. thats lulu for you. I would only short and cover intraday at this point until the whole retail sector starts heading down.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:53 am
gmsa, another thing about lulu is that it may get an upgrade after hours from one of the firms and the stock can open up +5% tomorrow..who knows.. it happened to me in January when I lost 10% in my lulu short overnight.
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:59 am
Ray-Kitchener,
I wanted to transfer a/cs out of TDW & after going through lots of comparatives when finally called-in to do the paper work, I was told of that thing being taken out eff. apr.2nd. And now I’m back to square one! Undecided + they say RESP a/c can’t trade in US markets…everyone else allows but not RBC!!
Slava,
I hear you…just watched an analyst on cnbc 15min. ago – who has investment business reolationship with LULU- says all’s well & rosy. will watch closely. very high volume right out of the gate…let’s see how it closes today.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:00 pm
Slava,
Your little derringer maker is making out like a howitzer today,
Sometimes you win – sometimes you lose – them’s the breaks.
Smith & wesson too….uumm…wonder what that means?
Everyone already has three guns
I just noticed….. DGAZ ….. who would want a three times
bear natty, one time is enough already.
And some of the usual suspects are acting up again today
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?RGR,SWHC,GOOG,BIDU,PCLN,DGAZ,DSLV,KORS,DG,PM,LVS,DFS,PM,LTD,|C|V25
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:12 pm
Rol Lew,
re.#64
SWHC will keep going up as long as Obama is leading the presidential election polls.
That’s what happened (I guess) in 2008. So it’s inverse to the popularity of a black presidential candidate…trust me, I don’t smoke anything
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:27 pm
CHICAGO (MarketWatch) — Shares of Sturm, Ruger & Co. jumped about 10% early Thursday, the morning after the firearms manufacturer stopped taking new orders due to overwhelming demand. In the first quarter of 2012, Ruger /quotes/zigman/242215/quotes/nls/rgr RGR +7.87% said that it has gotten orders for more than one million units. And despite “efforts to increase production rates, the incoming order rate exceeds our capacity to rapidly fulfill these orders.” The company said that it expects to “resume the normal acceptance of orders by the end of May.” Shares were up $3.91 at $46.21 in early action. 2012. Rival Smith & Wesson /quotes/zigman/87396/quotes/nls/swhc SWHC +5.80% gained 4%.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:30 pm
Re:#3 brokerage selection/comparison
gmsa, Thank you for your post, I thought you were using TD Waterhouse, maybe I was wrong…
PL
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:33 pm
gmsa,
thank you very much for #3, #63! I was asking Canuck about broker yesterday and mentioned I would look for broker survey. You saved me the time, appreciate this.
Also, I too was considering RBC to take advantage of the trade bundling…very disappointing move from them if they indeed pull it.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:41 pm
gmsa: Wow. That tells you a great deal with what is going on south of the border. Either Hollywood are making more westerns, or folks are getting ready for some forcasted doomsday event. I find it hard to believe that one million people are taking up shooting targets as a hobby.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:41 pm
gmsa,
Thanks for #2.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:44 pm
PL & Sky,
You are welcome!
PL: I’ve TDW & ITrade…not very happy with TDW for quite sometime…
finally made up my mind with RBC action direct & these two things were told (trade cons. + RESP a/c can’t trade in US) + Shorting is always delayed by few mins. for manual intervention at their end like TDW (inventory checking for borrowing) – This is a big plus with ITrade as most of the shorts are always available instantaneously.
Wish interactive brokers would allow registered a/c and I will close my eyes & move everything with them.
Anyways, hope you both find suitable brokers per your needs. For now, I’m still undecided…but after apr.2nd I’m planning to call RBC and if they do allow ‘trade consolidation’, I’m going to switch from TDW for sure. For shorting purpose will keep Itrade – as long as there are not many days like today AM.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Hi Tony & Canuck2004,
When you have some time, could please look at the attached chart for BHI:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BHI&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p39411647185
Based on my interpretation, this stock is heading south and I need to upside of MACD, RSI and Full STO, before I buy any shares.
Thank you very much and welcome any feedback from anyone, Ania
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Hi Tony and Canuck2004,
#72
I meant I need to see the MACD, RSI, and Full STO curbing to the upside.
March 22nd, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Ray-Kitchener,
Remember after Obama’s victory in late 2008 stores all across US ran out of guns?!
Enough for a nation that calls itself developed & leading! I better stop right here…
Spkng of shooting targets as a hobby reminds me of Ron/BC. Hope he has not moved out of BC and still doing his target practice in Stanley Park every evening
Besides, since you’re an existing (and poss. long time) rbc action direct client would you be able to confirm by calling them about consolidation of trade for sure?
I tried calling again but the next rep. says can’t comment on it until apr.2nd. If you come know, drop me a note please. Thanks.
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:00 pm
gmsa, I agree – Itrade is great for shorting.. at the same time it got me into some deep trouble with cmg, lulu, etc.
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:02 pm
HGU back to $9.65.. this really worries me. Gold itself is at -0.75% only.
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:05 pm
We haven’t discussed COG for some time.. Thoughts on COG? It has strong support in the $30 range.. Lin was so right about COG a couple of weeks ago.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p28532586752
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Slava,
re. Gold
Further to what Muntazir posted few days back about additional taxes on Gold Imports by Indian Govt. Now there are protests by jewellers & 50% of the stores are shutdown.
further reading-
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304724404577297351032549674.html?mod=googlenews_wsj
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:19 pm
gmsa, that’s exactly my point.. All these bearish news from every angle yet gold is down only $10 right now. Shouldn’t all these bad news be already reflected in the price of gold? To me it looks like there is some serious buying taking place which is holding up the price.. -0.63% is nothing really. I’m just very very disappointed in gold stocks.
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:20 pm
I bought Trican yesterday (despite mick/inv’s warnings) and it’s at -4%.. just my luck. I’ve had very very bad luck this month.
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:28 pm
Slava,
COG is down in sympathy with nat.gas inventory data. ECA & CHK all down about 4%. cog 5%. Could be a good short term buying oppo. in cog @ 31.70 level.
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Chipotle added $1 billion in market cap in one month.. yes, you are reading this right.. despite increased competion, major food inflation, slightly missed earnings last quarter and a P/E 2.5 times higher than Yum brands (which are growing at a similar rate). What gives.. I just don’t understand it.
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Slava,
re.#79
All your questions are already answered in that link I posted at #4 today…pl. read it carefully.
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:41 pm
re. LIM.TO
In past few days there were some posts re. LIM.TO, was it Michael or someone else?
It’s currently testing a major support. 4th test since last oct. Price Channel is still trending down & fundamentals don’t support the iron ore/steel/molybdenum stocks (chinese slow down, bhp warning etc.)…not sure if I want to take a small position as a start…have a feeling that finally it’s going to have to be bought out by someone. Any ideas pl.?
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Hey, guys:
Ron/AB, Michael, mick, Ania, canuck2004, gmsa, Slava, Rol Lew, etc.: Brilliant stuff in the past couple of days. Keep up the great work.
BBD/b.to: Most years this stock truly does power up as canuck mentioned. My own calendar says to buy near the beginning of the year and let the excitement build until they show their new products at the Paris air show, when the Pros always sell the news. Lots of work to overcome the $5 range but it could be explosive after that. Acumulating.
Michael: In 2008 Oil approached it’s high near $147 and a Goldman guy came out with a report that Oil would move to near $200 with Middle East turmoil. It may get there one day, but it went to $34 first. Yep, their call to buy stocks may be the perfect contrarian indicator for at least a market correction, if not the ultimate top. Be alert.
Slava: Let me start by saying I am impressed when I hear that you are placing hard stops on some of your orders. I have been stopped out an inordinent amount of times in the past month, which kept me from taking the “Big Loss”! There’s hope for you yet! LOL! Ah, I know you can take a joke. You will get there.
Also, bullish stocks often go up in the morning, rest or dip when the Pros go to lunch and get an afternoon pop. You are correct in that observation, and remember the contrary also works on downtrending stocks.
Slava, one more thing for the big picture: In the 1970′s Gold bull, stocks underperformed for years even as they continued to pay higher dividends and Spot went up and the Dow eventually bottomed. As the public gave up on the stocks, the Pros backed up the truck at much lower levels before the 3rd phase began. Judging by recent action we may be in for an instant replay of 2008, when gold stocks got crushed before exploding once again. We cannot rule this scenario out. I suppose you did not lighten up yesterday on HGU. Remember the “Sleeping point”.
Rol Lew: Holy Cow! What to say? Great work on organzing your charts and sectors. I do that also, but it takes quite some time for me to draw my lines and annotate them on stockcharts with weekly and daily charts.. We should perhaps put our favourites in Stockcharts Public charts.
SWHC: has been on my list for a little while. Even though it is up 300% or thereabouts in several months, it is quite interesting. If the volume keeps coming and it can hold above $7.50 this puppy could explode. Otherwise a dip to around $5.50 is still possible. As canadians we just bend over and take it when people like the Premier of Ontario hides about 500 tax increases over his watch, however Americans will not be so calm. For years the US powers-that-be have been preparing for some sort of great civil disobedience or something. The evidence is definitely out there. I have some ideas about what might happen, but they would be considered too drastic by many. Keep in mind that in the US they are loading up on guns and ammo. I will try to draw a chart and get back on here some time.
The Finviz screeners are excellent. The older versions elsewhere were lousy. Finviz is great. I entered some chart patterns and it spit out the results. Eliminating the low volume ones and those that I did not like I came up with just a couple of candidates to watch. This is a great tool for learning. I learned with a ruler, which you can imagine would be painstaking. If you want to learn Pattern Recognition, you can now get a good book, scan these screeners, and quickly learn the nuances. What a great site. Here’s the link with a screen for potential double bottoms:
http://www.finviz.com/screener.ashx?v=111&s=ta_p_doublebottom
Keep up the great work everyone. Sorry for the long post but I don’t get out to play much. Have Fun!
Frank.
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Ania,
re.#72 BHI @ US
Not familiar with the moving parts of bhi, but just looking at the sector itself OIH. 2/3rd of the stock moves generally come from the sector itself.
Picture is not pretty sectorwise… barely managed to go over 200sma, 50sma struggled to cross 200 but failed & now it even broke below the falling wedge pattern. Macd & rsi both trending down since late feb.
I would not long this unless you’re doing a real short term trade. I am thinking OIH as a short.
hope it helps
March 22nd, 2012 at 1:58 pm
gmsa, thanks for sharing that article in post #4.. It’s interesting to read various opinions. By the way the author does say that “though oversold gold miners may be ripe for a tradeable bounce” and also Gold chart doesn’t look as bearish as mentioned. As a matter of fact for now at least it resembles inverse head and shoulder formation (which has been originally brought up to our attention by Michael, I believe, a few days ago).
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:03 pm
gmsa,
That was me re LIM.to. I tried to catch it as it went over 5.00 but it couldn’t sustain the move and I was stopped back out the next day. It’s way over sold and is on my watch list but I would not play it for a swing trade unless the 4ma can cross the 9ma. In the current climate, it could easily hit 4.44 or 4.37 which are lower support areas. I don’t know if you are considering it for a day trade or swing trade.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:06 pm
Slava
Congrats on the LULU short, you will make all your money back soon.
You are the Darvas box queen, so good that you did not buy TCW although I would gladly sell you my shares.
here is the chart for FM.to, it fell out of the Darvas box a couple of days ago.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FM.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p23786691368&a=261712565
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:06 pm
Hi gmsa. My, you’re back with a vengeance! Re SLW, I think that the earnings will be decent, but the price movement will depend on silver (of course!). I could see it closing the gap at $34.40, if the Mayan silver gods are in their favour, with an upside to close to $40 (the top of the downward trendline. However, SLW has known to disappoint, so the low could be targeted at $26 (the bottom of the trendline). I took a half position this week.
RE: LIM, I don’t follow the stock, but commented to Ron/AB, who bought and I think sold it the same day. Fow what it’s worth, the smaller investment houses like the stock. I stay away from companies that aren’t reporting profits.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Frank, thank you. Still holding all of my HGU and barely slept last night.. I also have too many resource oriented stocks – metals, energy – a lot of them juniors. Hmm.. not sure what to do now.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:09 pm
Does anyone know why TVIX down 16% or so today. Glad my Lulu is performing well. Thanks Ron for the heads up on FCX, sold yesterday.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Hi Frank,
Re: Post #85
Thank you for the encouragement. Please keep posting any new information you might have.
Happy Trading, Ania
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:17 pm
mick, I did buy Trican.. and didn’t sell it yesterday although I had $200 profit.. now $400 loss
kay, congratulations with lululemon.. it’s a “monster” stock. They lowered guidance yet it had a $5/share turnaround since morning on huge volume and is up +2.75% right now.
I got very lucky – I shorted yesterday and covered first thing this a.m. – made a bit of money. I should have gone long once I saw the strength.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:21 pm
Hi Frank,
Thanks for #85. Good to hear from you.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:25 pm
kay, from another board:
“TVIX might have lost at least one fan today. OptionsMonster’s Jon Najarian told Benzinga a big hedge fund was taking a hit on a TVIX position and decided to liquidate that position today
Read more: http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/lo...
http://www.benzinga.com/trading-ideas/lo... “
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Michael: Appreciate your thoughts on CFW.to, have a profitable one.
Slava: Timing, I didn’t buy right at 71.00 higher, but nevertheless made some profits.
I guess HGU is killing you, I still have 1K HZU waiting for a bounce.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:27 pm
Frank,
It’s real easy to organize lists on www . freestockcharts . com
You can day trade USA stocks using this. But NOT CDN stocks.
So between finviz and freestockcharts and interactive brokers,
that can really be a winning combination, (for unregistered accounts)
I just find the hourly, and 2- hour charts so easy to follow.
Just one sma and an aroon 20 – 25. that’s all.
No MACD, no stocastics, no bollingers, no cci, no volume, yep – that’s right,
no parobolic SAR, no ichimoku cloud. I just want to see if it’s going up on those
timeframes, if so I nibble. And if it’s going down, then I short a little bit.
So I sold RGR today, and covered PVG-t.
Just compensation for all the times I get my head
handed to me. Tomorrow is another day.
It really, really, really helps me to “see” if a stock is
“Going UP”, or “Going DOWN”. Really. I just try to follow
the trend in those timeframes. And of course a timely tip
from this board does not hurt either. Thanks Slava!
Slava, Thank you, thank you, thank you!!! for RGR.
I would not have bought it if you had not pointed it out
a few weeks ago.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:27 pm
Ron/AB,
Sorry I didn’t remember exactly who as I was reading almost 5-6 days of posts together one night. Thx for clarifying.
All right, LIM.TO I mostly played on short side. At one point I was almost 14K shares short when it was hovering above $14 price. Very profitable to me 100% of the time. But since late dec. have been sort of out of touch w/markets & have not ventured into this. But this time, I’m thinking of going long. This one is sort of less followed stock & therefore, I don’t feel that confident with the fundamental story & related developments. When I used to follow it very closely, would do exactly the opposite of what Jennings Capital & Scotia Capital would suggest & made money 100% of the time!
I will need to invest more time again. Thanks for sharing your views & levels.
Michael,
thx for your comments on LIM as well as SLW. I’m still waiting…(at least not losing my shirt with slw this time).
Sorry for so many posts today…after a long time spending full day on markets, the funny thing is that I’ve NOT slept at all last night. So my clock is running non-stop for 33hrs now. Not sure what will happen after 4pm…at present I’m over caffeinated
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:28 pm
ABX at -0.58%, G at +0.21%, Kinross at -0.20% but HGU is at -2.31%.. some other components of HGU must be contributing to the downside.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:30 pm
kay, looks like some kind of mispricing.. volume on TVIX is huge. This is why such investments are truly scary. I remember reading that TVIX can’t create more shares – so if a hedge fund is liquidating at the bid.. not sure how it all works.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Rol, you are most welcome
I sold my RGR some time ago.. so didn’t take part in today’s rally.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:35 pm
I am wondering if TVIX is going bankrupt, never seen this slide in price.
Ron/AB: would you be a buyer of FCX at this price? Thanks and happy trading.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Wow.. big swing on HGU since yesterday’s high. Perhaps I should switch a portion to HVU.. I think volatility will pick up even more tomorrow.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Re RIM.TO
Hmmm – don’t know if I should add or sell. Any one following this. Any thoughts would be welcome. It has come doen to intraday support at 13.90.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:38 pm
kay, I think we need to see copper stabilize before commiting funds again to FCX.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:40 pm
$10k swing on my HGU since yesterday.. I’m feeling slighly faint.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Hi kay. Re CFW, good support around $26 (tho it seems to like to drop below that price before bouncing). It’s not oversold yet, so either the market likes (relative to others) the company or it hasn’t figured that it should be lower. There’s a bit of a gap at $30.84 that could be a magnet. However, the market hasn’t bounced back even with some good economic numbers this morn, so I would be reluctant to jump in (unless it gets to support).
By the way, did you find out what was down with TVIX today? I sold mine last Thursday.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:44 pm
Kay,
Kay congrats on your LULU trade, it’s opposite for me
Media is spinning the story about possible interest by Nike in LULU.
Know I need to start my own media co. to spin some stories for my profits.
Frank & Rol Lew,
So true, simple strategies make the win easier without any headaches!
thx for sharing.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:49 pm
TVIX at -25% now.. wow
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Kay,
Re FCX
No i wouldn’t. I has some support at this level but it couldn’t sustain it’s upward move. I would just watch for now.
March 22nd, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Ron/AB: Thanks, maybe I’ll wait for gold and copper to find direction.
Michael: Lucky you again, I am still hold 1K , there is probably something serious going on here, I try goggle but nothing showed up as of now.
Slava: Keep your fingers crossed gold equities reverse soon, I don’t like to hold “H” product overnite. Wish us both well, some things doing well, some aren’t. Tommorrow better luck to both.
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Hi gmsa,
Thank you very much for your feedback.
Happy Trading, Ania
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:04 pm
I would buy hgu now at $9.69 for a trade.. gold is moving up.. good sign.
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:05 pm
gmsa, at what price are you planning to cover CP?
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:05 pm
Slava:
I have to run again, but a have a very serious questions for you……….wait for it. When you go to the casino how much money do you bring along as your stake? Seriously. I would like to know.
Have fun!
Frank.
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Perhaps gold will complete reverse head and shoulder today? Day’s low was just below $1630..
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:07 pm
I also bought HVU at $5.20 with a stop loss.
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Frank, I never go to a casino.. unless it’s in Vegas and I’m walking through a casino in a nice dress on my way to dinner or a show.. I believe I once lost $5 in a slot machine..lol
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Eve, has been MIA since her birhtday. I hope she is well and comes for a visit soon
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:13 pm
In my post 116 I meant to say “complete the shoulder”..lol
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:16 pm
I think the market “feels” different.. banks and transports are down quite a bit today why crazy overpriced momo stocks traded by robots/hedge funds are up again.
I think perhaps today warrants a purchase of vxx (not as volatile as hvu) for an overnight hold. VXX also completed its roll over into April today, I believe.
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Hi Rol Lew,
#98
That’s great if you don’t need the STO, RSI, MACD to do your trade. What do you use instead for day trading. Do you have a membership with stockcharts.com? I hope you don’t mind me asking
Thank you, Ania
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Slava,
re#114
Had 1200 shares short on cp originally (committed the sin of adding to a losing position) Took loss on 600shares. Still holding 600…not sure but may be will hold until after the vote/meeting on May 17th. Was tempted to cover during early march correction but was away & missed on taking action.
Pain for not putting HARD STOP. Today heard about some +ve comments from royal bank analyst on cp. Although FDX bad news is weighing on the transport sector & getting some relief on cp.
—
Re. VIX index & related products:
I’m sure lot of traders here know it very well but came across this video from Jimmy – the Cramer. Thought of posting the link here for the basics review & its interpretations as of market close on march 20th.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46800122
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:31 pm
tck.b is below $35 now… from $65 to $35 in one year.
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:32 pm
TCW
Thinking worst case scenario $1.00 more drop to go, however technicals are turning positive…
slow stochastics – K just crossed over D
Money flow – oversold
RSI – 31 (lowest since oct 3rd)
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:36 pm
getting a little nervous on TCK.B now… below 34.71 and i might be forced to sell half
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Well, I give up.. VXX just plummeted in the last 20 minutes. Luckily I was stopped out of HVU at a small profit. Markets are just too hard right now.
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:47 pm
tsx composite keeps flirting with its 200 day moving average and it’s making me sick!
i want to just give it a shake and tell it to break through already!
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Ron/AB,
re.#105 RIMM/RIM.TO
I guess everyone has their own risk profile & trading/investing style. So things are interpreted differently. Here is how I think about it.
Did lots of long & shorts on it. Finally after $45 price @ rim.to stopped shorting it.
Then took few jabs at it from 25 to below 19 on short side. Then decided it’s way too risky to short as fundamentally, it’s worth more than $20..(I know there are many different views, but that’s how I see it).
Started taking long position @19…added some to a/c @ 13 fewmonths back & sold those for profit @ 17 level. Still holding 19 entry position, if anything worst comes & it drops to say 8-10 range will double up on my long. How I see it is – speculation on a fundamentally sound co. that is still producing huge cashflow with lots of assets…just the poor mgmnt -that’s been addressed somewhat already by the co.
If it gets bought out by someone, I know I will get much higher price @ high 20s-30. If not & they actually manage to turn it around, will hold it longer term.
if it gets below $4 or $5, will take a loss & devote more time in the ‘prayer room’
Bottomline -if you’re still w/me & awake
– to me, very little downside & huge upside potential. I’m long across many of my a/cs. I am actually considering to buy some more at this price in some of my own a/cs….but it all depends how much time I can spend in the market next week to monitor & decide.
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Hi all. Who needs an iPad or Playbook when an Etch A Sketch will do?!
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-03-22/etch-a-sketch-maker-ohio-art-triples-after-romney-aide-s-mention.html
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Ania,
I do a “day-trade” off & on – 2 trades per week? –
so that is not really the frequency of a day-trader.
freestockcharts dot com is a worden brothers completely free
web product. They do offer a premium product also, that comes
without adverts takin gup 1/3 of your screen, which allows
you to set alerts, and to do scans. On the free one minute chart,
for very liquid (mostly USA) stocks, you could day-trade those.
“Indicators” (in my opinion) do not work all that well for day-
trading, because most of the day, the action is accompanied by
lot of “noise”, & head-fakes, and the trends are, more often than not,
just minutes long. So since most of the indicators on freestock charts
are “trend-following”, by the time you decide to act, the trend is
already over, and so you lose money.
There is a fib retracement tool there, but I do not understand
how to use it – That is the only thing there (I think), that is
not trend- following. There is no pivot tool.
Maybe pivots make day trades win more often – don’t know for sure.
What I look for when I do, is the 10:00 to 10:15 start of a reversal,
or a strong contination. Then at 12 noon, the action tends to die down.
Then at 3:30 there is often another acceleration or reversal into the close.
But some days nothing happens all day. So for me, day-trading is difficult.
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:55 pm
tck closed above 35!
March 22nd, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Could be the curse of the presidential cycle confirmed by Goldman:
http://seasonalcharts.com/zyklen_wahl_dowjones_election.html
March 22nd, 2012 at 4:04 pm
Hi Slava,
I was so worried about you when I saw HVU.TO crashing before the close coz I was thinking of buying at $5.15 but did not do it coz I had a customer. Good to see you are out with a profit.
I found out that I lost alot of money last year and don’t want others to get hurt.
March 22nd, 2012 at 4:09 pm
gmsa,
It’s ok, I am still awake. Good discussion.
The thought of AMZM or MSFT buying out RIMM for $25 a share,
prevents me from shorting it again. Ant the thought of AAPL
being AAPL prevnts me from going long. I did short it a few
times last year, and those worked out fine, but I would not
push my luck any further. I have golds, silvers, gas & solars
to short, and retailers, health care, gun makers & sea-weed
pants to go long on.
That is what makes a market, I guess, There is nothing you can
say to tempt me to touch the Rimmer again, unless “something”
happens. Just as my mind is set on golds…. no long trades for
me, until the trend changes to UP. I have to see the whites of their
eyes before I fire a shot. And even then I can miss.
March 22nd, 2012 at 4:09 pm
gmsa
RE #138
Thanks for the RIM/RIMM comments. I did not add to my existing RIM position today, just traded around my core position for a few pennies.
March 22nd, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Ugly!!!….. or Very Beautiful…..
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?HGU.TO,OSK.TO,PVG.TO,MUX.TO,ANV.TO,GOLD,AUQ.TO,ELD.TO,RR.TO,TMM.TO,NSU.TO,SMF.TO|C|V25
March 22nd, 2012 at 4:17 pm
Rol, a picture is worth a thousand words.. Someone is shorting the hell out of gold stocks..
I took a deep breath and looked at my account totals today.. ouch! I’m down a lot. I mean an LOT in three weeks and since yesterday. I got it wrong.. should have been long cmg, lulu and short gold stocks. Pretty ironic.
March 22nd, 2012 at 4:56 pm
Rol Lew,
I couldn’t agree with you more. Indicators are useless if you are daytrading. Most of them are lagging indicators and will not provide you with the timing you need to trigger your trade.
I saw a trading video a few months back. The “pro” was explaining how he used pivots to anticipate a turn in the market. He had a double ma up on the screen – along with his pivot levels – he pointed out where he got out and where the ma crossover occurred – several points after the turn. So, while he was out, those who followed the ma’s (9/18) waited for the cross – and exited several points later.
The 10:00 bounce is a classic move. I keep track of it in Oil – it has almost become mechanical – even today with such a drop in price – it turned at 10:00. Another turn happened just after 1:00 – it does this quite often.
Ray and I use ForexPros – a free charting service. It has numerous indicators. I just use the horizontal lines and trend line to indicate pivot levels. I trade off these levels.
Fibs, like pivots, are levels to watch for. So many traders follow them – they become almost self – fulfilling – and you can often predict where your stock will move in reaction to the fibs – Oil also bounces off the fibs – and I have worked on a study of how often this happens – is one level more common than another etc…
But, it sounds like you have a workable strategy. I don’t go in that often everyday – Ray might go in 6 times a day – I know of others who speed trade and complete up to 30 – 50 round trips in a day. Much too frenetic.
I still do some swing trades – I think that I mentioned on this board that I was short Silver from the 34.50 – 35.00 level at the beginning of the month, when it made an island reversal. I’m still short.
Good post!
March 22nd, 2012 at 6:10 pm
Hi Rol Lew,
Thank you for sharing your insights. I think this helps to understand how day trading is different from trend trading
Have a great evening, Ania
March 22nd, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Hi Wayne:
Congratulations on your silver short, wish I had noticed that on the board. I have 1K of HZU, any hope here or should I just take my loss. Also do you use HZD to short. Thanks.
March 22nd, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Kay,
No, I use ZSL.
Thanks. It could bounce between the 29 – 30 area – so I am tightening my stop. It made a perfect island reversal accompanied by huge volume on the 29th – I shorted the next day.
Best!
March 22nd, 2012 at 7:21 pm
Thanks to all for sharing your views/thoughts.
Slava
There was a coup in Mali ( W.African country) where some gold producers ( Rangold,Avion etc) operate which might explain underperformance of HGU cf to ABX etc.
FYI I bought TCW @ 15.95 on Tues B4 reading Micks comments so am underwater as well( for Tony & CJ).
Wish Eve would give her outlook on the markets now that s&p is under 1400.
Maritime/Mark
Thanks for the info on HAC + saying TCW might be bottoming(Mark).
Cannuck
Thanks for your updated views & portfolio mngmnt. I am still holding PWF,MFC & PGF from higher prices.
Tony
Hope you r doing fine. If you have time would appreciate your outlok on TSX & s&P.
Michael
Looks SLW beat the results. will see tomorrow the reaction
March 22nd, 2012 at 7:42 pm
Hi Wayne,
I was wondering when you swing trade, what are the chart patterns and/or indicators you use. I am trying to trade the ascending triangle and also looking at MACD, RSI, and full STO.
Great Thanks, Ania
March 22nd, 2012 at 7:55 pm
Wayne: Thanks and good luck.
Tawny;
Hope all is well with you, missed you on the board. Well if you are holding TVIX please read Slava’s post 96 or go to Market Watch. MAYBE you have to watch VIX/VXX as well. Strange yesterday and today as the market was going down so was TVIX.
March 22nd, 2012 at 8:13 pm
Tony & those who follow options
TCW was among top 10 on MX yesterday & FRC today ( Apr 16 calls). Just thought this might be interesting
March 22nd, 2012 at 8:14 pm
Ania,
I use the monthly pivots, 21 RSI, trend lines. That’s all. Trader Vic (Sperandeo) told me at a trading seminar I attended in Las Vegas years ago that “most indicators don’t work”.
But, I have read Peter Brandt’s book “Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader” and he trades according to several patterned entries – so I do watch for certain patterns. Like the island reversal in Silver on Feb 29.
It’s a bit more complicated than it sounds – but it works.
Best!
March 22nd, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Today’s TVIX action explained – latest news release:
http://www.bizjournals.com/prnewswire/press_releases/2012/03/22/NY75388
“….Beginning March 23, 2012, Credit Suisse may from time to time issue the ETNs into inventory of its affiliates to make the ETNs available for lending at or about rates that prevailed prior to the temporary suspension of issuances of the ETNs…”
That would be what, $17-ish? Shorter’s paradise – that would explain today’s panic IMHO.
March 22nd, 2012 at 8:46 pm
Hi Wayne,
Thank you, I will try to use your strategy and see how it will work out for me. Isalnd reversal is in fact a complicated pattern and need the understanding of gaps. Will read on it.
Have a great Evening, Ania
March 22nd, 2012 at 9:15 pm
Frank and others, according to your assessment do you think CMG has more room to run? I’m actually thinking of going long.. need to make my money back on this beast, perhaps I should just buy it with a stop loss.. Mind you, those don’t work very well if it plummets overnight on some downgrade one day soon. Tough decisions ahead.
March 22nd, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Slava,
What you are thinking of doing is called “Revenge Trading”. It never works. You are so emotionally connected to this “beast” that it is impossible to trade it rationally. There is no room for emotion in trading.
March 22nd, 2012 at 9:32 pm
Slava
Re: cmg
Just accept that you missed the boat on this one. Don’t buy it here and don’t short it.
March 22nd, 2012 at 9:47 pm
Anna/TO: Thanks for the link re TVIX, sold today at a loss, it was dropping too fast and didn’t have the courage to hold overnite to see what tomorrow would bring. Don’t know if I ever want to buy this beast.
March 22nd, 2012 at 9:53 pm
Central Fund (CEF.A) still at premium 2.7%
I’d like to add to this at slight discount
but it’s hanging in there.
http://www.centralfund.com/Nav%20Form.htm
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:04 pm
slava
answer to 27 what goes down must come up are you kidding me,
it goes by the symbol NT.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:05 pm
Slava: I feel your pain, thought today I was on the right side of the trade not knowing TVIX had issues, it took me by surprise because I was expecting it to go up and took too long to react. Jim Rogers is hoping for China’s economy to collapse because he wants to buy when its less expensive. Don’t stress yourself, most you can do is lighten up on some trades and relax. Best of luck tomorrow.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:23 pm
Wayne. Revenge trading sounds about right.. I feel like I need to prove smth with CMG but like mick said – I missed the boat. He forgot to add that while missing it I fell into a pool of ice cold water and the price of rescue was $17k.. what a lesson learned.. cut losses quickly!
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:24 pm
Tony, I thought you would like that
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Guys, tell me – how are you so disciplined with your investing? Does it come with experience?
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:27 pm
Wayne, judging by your silence Ron/BC was not keen on my idea to exchange email addresses?
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:33 pm
Slava,
Not really. He has moved on.
Sorry.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:39 pm
Slava
I was looking for cog back in feb when I was telling CJ not to get involved with it and on the Feb 15th your loss on cmg was 8K and you mentionned you were going to dump it.
can you imagine if you had done that at that moment.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Ania
post 72-73
yes you want to see them indicators curling higher I prefer when they cross the 50 mark, or but I use smaller parameters then you, cause I want to make the most money with the smallest loses as possible.
fst change the parameters it will help you enter sooner and exit sooner.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Muntazir, thx for the concern
doing fine but very sleepy bed is soon.
will get back tomorrow.
March 22nd, 2012 at 10:59 pm
Slava
have trailing stops or stop loss.
on the road
March 22nd, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Slava
Look how you have adjusted recently, you are using TA, stops, darvas box, the old slava would never had done that, so you are changing but slowly, you now need to do this on a more consistent basis, especially your exit strategy, not having a consistent one will kill an account. What i have noticed, no disrespect intended, is that many people’s exit strategy is to average down, i think that is a big mistake. You may get lucky and things will turn around, but more than likely the trend will just continue down and your loss will only increase.
March 23rd, 2012 at 3:50 am
Bought TCW @14.95, better put stop loss, incase it’s not in my favour. shorted LLL.to now i have to book my losses. and TVIX bought too.
Market had great run, need to rest, but keep running.
I don’t understand GS’s comments to buy equity after a great run.
I am confused with US economi- healthy, improve lot better and faster than expected, who needs guns?
Do u think their is something I am missing here?
March 23rd, 2012 at 3:50 am
Bought TCW @14.95, better put stop loss, incase it’s not in my favour. shorted LLL.to now i have to book my losses. and TVIX bought too.
Market had great run, need to rest, but keep running.
I don’t understand GS’s comments to buy equity after a great run.
I am confused with US economi- healthy, improve lot better and faster than expected, who needs guns?
Do u think their is something I am missing here?