Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday March 27th
U.S. equity index futures are slightly lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 2 points in pre-opening trade. Traders are bracing for the March Consumer Confidence Index to be released at 10:00 AM EDT. Consensus is a decline to 70.4 from 70.8 in February.
Lennar added $0.60 to $27.00 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings.
Walgreen improved $0.61 to $34.98 after announcing higher than consensus fiscal second quarter earnings.
Atlantic Equities initiated coverage on U.S. restaurant stocks. Starbucks was initiated with an Overweight rating and a $64 target. Yum Brands was initiated with an Overweight rating and an $81target. McDonald’s was initiated with a Neutral rating and a $102 billion target.
Bank of America eased $0.09 to $34.98 after RW Baird downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral.
Enbridge is expected to open higher after announcing plans to expand its oil pipeline through the U.S. The expanded pipeline potentially will complete with the XL Keystone pipeline proposed by TransCanada.
Enbridge, Inc. (TSE:ENB) – $38.23 Cdn. is expected to open higher after the company announced plans to expand its oil pipeline in the United States. The stock has a mixed technical profile. The stock recently established an intermediate downtrend. Resistance is at $39.00. Next support is at $35.39. The stock trades above its 200 day moving average and moved above its 50 day moving average at $38.06 yesterday. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to the TSX Composite Index has been neutral since mid-November. Seasonal influences are neutral until the end of April when they turn positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to support at $35.39.
Enbridge Inc. (TSE:ENB) Seasonal Chart
Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) – $71.44 is expected to open higher after Atlantic Securities initiated coverage with an Overweight rating. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since August. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of April. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE:YUM) Seasonal Chart
Lennar Corp. (NYSE:LEN) – $27.00 added 2.3% after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since August. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
Equity markets cheered Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s “accommodative” stance yesterday. The NASDAQ Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index closed at new 2012 highs. The S&P 500 Index is up 31.8% above its low set on October 4th and the NASDAQ Composite is up 35.8%.
Health Care equities and related ETFs led the advance following expectations that the Supreme Court will hear the Obamacare bill despite petitions yesterday that attempted a deferral until after the bill becomes effective.
American Express rose sharply after announcing a dividend increase and a share buy-back program. Many international companies are “cash rich”. Is AMEX setting a trend?
Nice breakout by the Mexican ETF!
Adrienne Toghraie’s “Trader’s Coach” Column
Self Analysis for Traders
By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Success Coach
There are many lessons I have learned over the years from traders. One that I would like to highlight is that new traders do not effectively analyze themselves along the way. Even if a trader thinks that he has learned everything he can from a top level trading teacher, he has not had the everyday experiences that it took for that teacher to develop his skills to become a successful trader.
To be more effective in reaching each new level of success, a trader must be willing to admit to himself that he is not always the best analyzer of what he has to do to improve his trading. A trader could admit to himself and others that he is not consistent; he does not take as much risk as he should, but misses other vital pieces that keep him from growing.
Afraid of success
Barry was a dedicated trading student who followed the rules of one of the best trading teachers available. He knew that he did not always follow his rules and consequently did not make the profits that were available to earn with his strategy.
When Barry did his periodic reviews, he thought he was being as honest as possible in his own analysis of himself. It was not because Barry did not want to face the truth; he did not know what the truth was for his not being able to follow his rules.
When I did my Evaluation of Barry, I found that his chief issue was fear of success. This did not compute with Barry until we delved deeper into his history. Barry’s father was a blue-collar worker who always complained about the big boss and all his wealth. Young Barry saw that his father suffered by not being able to give the family more then a meager lifestyle. He would hear his father say, “Those rich people might have a lot of stuff, but they don’t have integrity and happiness.”
So why would Barry ever want to be one of those people?
Change means suffering
Arnold learned his trading skills from his uncle who was in the S & P pit almost from its inception. He had a good run as a trader for earning top profits. When everything started to go electronic, Arnold fought it every step of the way. He did not consider the fact that when he was a young boy his family moved 21 times before he was 12 years old. Each change was painful, because it meant making new friends only to lose them.
Arnold fought the change until he had to give up trading. For two years he was an unhappy man in and early retirement. Fortunately, he met one of his old trading buddies at a coffee shop who was now trading successfully on a computer. He took Arnold under his wing and now Arnold is happy as a computer trader. What convinced Arnold was the fact that his friend told him about the way he struggled with change. Arnold related to him without considering his past experience. Perhaps, Arnold needed that 2 years off, or perhaps he could have made that transition sooner if he understood, acknowledged and worked through his problem.
You only need to watch programs like American Idol or So You Think You Can Dance to see how delusional people can be about their abilities and talents. Just because they are passionate, have an overwhelming belief and have a fan base of friends and family who think they are talented, does not mean so in the real world. This is also true about traders with little training or those with self-sabotage issues who keep themselves in the dark and see themselves as the next top trader.
It is a good thing to believe in yourself and your ability, but if you are not producing the profits that your strategy will allow, then there is something wrong. You must ask yourself, “How long am I willing to wait to make the profits I deserve?” Then seek out the help you need when you are ready to face the real issues.
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Keith Richards’ Blog
I’ve posted a new blog featuring an interesting study of current investor bullishness and its potential implications. Visit http://www.smartbounce.ca/?p=1152
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Taking stock of the TSX at the quarter pole”. Following is a link to the report:
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Healthcare Sector Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC March 26th 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).