Tech Talk for Tuesday March 27th 2012

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Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday March 27th

U.S. equity index futures are slightly lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 2 points in pre-opening trade. Traders are bracing for the March Consumer Confidence Index to be released at 10:00 AM EDT. Consensus is a decline to 70.4 from 70.8 in February.

Lennar added $0.60 to $27.00 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings.

Walgreen improved $0.61 to $34.98 after announcing higher than consensus fiscal second quarter earnings.

Atlantic Equities initiated coverage on U.S. restaurant stocks. Starbucks was initiated with an Overweight rating and a $64 target. Yum Brands was initiated with an Overweight rating and an $81target. McDonald’s was initiated with a Neutral rating and a $102 billion target.

Bank of America eased $0.09 to $34.98 after RW Baird downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral.

Enbridge is expected to open higher after announcing plans to expand its oil pipeline through the U.S. The expanded pipeline potentially will complete with the XL Keystone pipeline proposed by TransCanada.

 

Technical Watch

Enbridge, Inc. (TSE:ENB) – $38.23 Cdn. is expected to open higher after the company announced plans to expand its oil pipeline in the United States. The stock has a mixed technical profile. The stock recently established an intermediate downtrend. Resistance is at $39.00. Next support is at $35.39. The stock trades above its 200 day moving average and moved above its 50 day moving average at $38.06 yesterday. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to the TSX Composite Index has been neutral since mid-November. Seasonal influences are neutral until the end of April when they turn positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to support at $35.39.

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Enbridge Inc. (TSE:ENB) Seasonal Chart

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Yum! Brands Inc. (NYSE: YUM) – $71.44 is expected to open higher after Atlantic Securities initiated coverage with an Overweight rating. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but have yet to show signs of peaking. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since August. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of April. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.

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Yum! Brands, Inc. (NYSE:YUM) Seasonal Chart

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Lennar Corp. (NYSE:LEN) – $27.00 added 2.3% after reporting higher than consensus fiscal first quarter earnings. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since August. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.

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Interesting Charts

Equity markets cheered Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke’s “accommodative” stance yesterday. The NASDAQ Composite Index and the S&P 500 Index closed at new 2012 highs. The S&P 500 Index is up 31.8% above its low set on October 4th and the NASDAQ Composite is up 35.8%.

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Health Care equities and related ETFs led the advance following expectations that the Supreme Court will hear the Obamacare bill despite petitions yesterday that attempted a deferral until after the bill becomes effective.

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American Express rose sharply after announcing a dividend increase and a share buy-back program. Many international companies are “cash rich”. Is AMEX setting a trend?

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Nice breakout by the Mexican ETF!

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Adrienne Toghraie’s “Trader’s Coach” Column

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Self Analysis for Traders

By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Success Coach

www.TradingOnTarget.com


There are many lessons I have learned over the years from traders. One that I would like to highlight is that new traders do not effectively analyze themselves along the way. Even if a trader thinks that he has learned everything he can from a top level trading teacher, he has not had the everyday experiences that it took for that teacher to develop his skills to become a successful trader.

To be more effective in reaching each new level of success, a trader must be willing to admit to himself that he is not always the best analyzer of what he has to do to improve his trading. A trader could admit to himself and others that he is not consistent; he does not take as much risk as he should, but misses other vital pieces that keep him from growing.

Afraid of success

Barry was a dedicated trading student who followed the rules of one of the best trading teachers available. He knew that he did not always follow his rules and consequently did not make the profits that were available to earn with his strategy.

When Barry did his periodic reviews, he thought he was being as honest as possible in his own analysis of himself. It was not because Barry did not want to face the truth; he did not know what the truth was for his not being able to follow his rules.

When I did my Evaluation of Barry, I found that his chief issue was fear of success. This did not compute with Barry until we delved deeper into his history. Barry’s father was a blue-collar worker who always complained about the big boss and all his wealth. Young Barry saw that his father suffered by not being able to give the family more then a meager lifestyle. He would hear his father say, “Those rich people might have a lot of stuff, but they don’t have integrity and happiness.”

So why would Barry ever want to be one of those people?

Change means suffering

Arnold learned his trading skills from his uncle who was in the S & P pit almost from its inception. He had a good run as a trader for earning top profits. When everything started to go electronic, Arnold fought it every step of the way. He did not consider the fact that when he was a young boy his family moved 21 times before he was 12 years old. Each change was painful, because it meant making new friends only to lose them.

Arnold fought the change until he had to give up trading. For two years he was an unhappy man in and early retirement. Fortunately, he met one of his old trading buddies at a coffee shop who was now trading successfully on a computer. He took Arnold under his wing and now Arnold is happy as a computer trader. What convinced Arnold was the fact that his friend told him about the way he struggled with change. Arnold related to him without considering his past experience. Perhaps, Arnold needed that 2 years off, or perhaps he could have made that transition sooner if he understood, acknowledged and worked through his problem.

Delusional people

You only need to watch programs like American Idol or So You Think You Can Dance to see how delusional people can be about their abilities and talents. Just because they are passionate, have an overwhelming belief and have a fan base of friends and family who think they are talented, does not mean so in the real world. This is also true about traders with little training or those with self-sabotage issues who keep themselves in the dark and see themselves as the next top trader.

Conclusion

It is a good thing to believe in yourself and your ability, but if you are not producing the profits that your strategy will allow, then there is something wrong. You must ask yourself, “How long am I willing to wait to make the profits I deserve?” Then seek out the help you need when you are ready to face the real issues.

New Free Weekly Newsletter

More Articles by Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Coach

Sign Up at – www.TradingOnTarget.com

 

Keith Richards’ Blog

I’ve posted a new blog featuring an interesting study of current investor bullishness and its potential implications. Visit http://www.smartbounce.ca/?p=1152

 

FP Trading Desk Headline

FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Taking stock of the TSX at the quarter pole”. Following is a link to the report:

http://business.financialpost.com/2012/03/26/taking-stock-of-the-tsx-at-the-quarter-pole/

 

Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com

Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.

To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/

Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base

Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:

Healthcare Sector Seasonal Chart

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Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.

Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc

 

Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC March 26th 2012

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Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide

Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064

It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).

Sponsored By...

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140 Responses to “Tech Talk for Tuesday March 27th 2012”

  1. gmsa Says:

    Rol Lew,
    re.#79 & 83 from yesterday.

    Thanks for the reply 1st of all.
    No it’s not the POG, it is PAG…
    I’m pasting some of those comments by Scotia Capital research reports here from diff. reports. Looks like it’s some financial term, don’t know what…

    ***About SNC yesterday:
    From PAG:
     While reported Q4 EPS was slightly ahead of expectations and although the board raised the dividend by a modest amount, we continue to believe that the risks outweigh rewards on the shares of SNC at this time.
     Aside from the expectation of flat year-over-year earnings for 2012, the ongoing saga relating to the $35 million “relating to certain payments made in the fourth quarter of 2011 that were documented to construction projects to which they did not relate” could remain a major overhang – particularly as the company indicates that “sanctions could be brought against it in connection with possible violations of law or contracts.” The “sanctions” are not a certainty at the moment but nonetheless presents a possible risk in the future.

    **** Fixed Income Morning Commentary
    Current PAG Recommendations
    1. Term Call – Given the recent decline in yields, we no longer see value in the mid to long end of the curve and recommend investors stay short at this time.

    **** About Astral Media(ACM.A) being bought by BCE
    From PAG:
     The deal values ACM.A at roughly 10x NTM EBITDA (before synergies, which could be
    material) based on our math. Both BCE and Daily News Alerts Rogers continues to secure content while Telus has been rather quiet on that front. It will be interesting
    to see how this plays out in terms of operating margins going forward, particularly on a relative basis.

  2. tony Says:

    gmsa

    think pag is the name of the analyst.

    pag recommendaions,

    from pag

  3. gmsa Says:

    Tony,
    Thx for the input.
    No it isn’t cause it’s (PAG) on all over securities i.e. many different sectors (Stocks Universe) and also on Fixed income, bonds, currencies etc.
    So don’t think one analyst can cover all that much.

  4. Frank Says:

    Good morning, Tony:

    If you have a few minutes, could you let me know your thoughts on the following stock for the short term. You know I hate daytrading, so I am interested in this from a daytrader perspective. It’s GLUU.

    Have fun.
    Frank.

  5. tony Says:

    Frank

    No day trader here I’m a swing trader. will buy something for a few days or weeks until something either convinces me to get out.

  6. DowTheoryRules Says:

    Tony, I realize that, and I am in the same boat, however GLUU does look good for a swing trade. Your thoughts, if time permits.

    Frank.

  7. CJ Says:

    Finally in the GREEN with TD.TO and am determined to let it run…. when should I get out?

    Tried to get into RAX this morning but it shot up like crazy right at the bell; I think it would have been a good buy before the market opened – have a limit order in, but it will not likely come down that far :(

  8. Ric Says:

    Canuck, Tony, others

    Looking at dividend paying stocks this am. Trying to find breakout stocks with attractive dividends.

    What are your thoughts on the following which have or seem to be about to break out of recent lows.

    TA Broke below Keltner 4ma has not crossed 9ma yet. Really oversold.
    TOT
    CWT/UN
    NPR/UN

    Would you buy at these levels?
    Thanks guys.

  9. Frank Says:

    Tony:

    That’s my moniker on the 3rd computer, DowTheoryRules. Me again.

    Frank.

  10. tony Says:

    Ok on a daily chart I would say

    buy it on the 38MA with a tight stop probably at 3.93 so 4% downside risk,

    Volume spike on friday, and price has not been moving higher, MACD has been showing weakness.
    options not much to say a bit of selling june 5 calls so I wouldn’t expect much of this one other then retest the 5$ high between now and june.

    I would put to much emphasis on gluu

  11. tony Says:

    poost 10 oops

    gluu would NOT put to much emphasis on gluu

  12. Frank Says:

    Tony, thanks. That’s interesting.
    Frank.

  13. Slava Says:

    Good morning Tony and Frank, if you get a minute – can I ask your opinion on RGR from a shorting point of view? Thank you.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGR&p=D&yr=0&mn=4&dy=0&id=p16611141622

  14. Ania Says:

    Good morning Tony,

    Any news for BHI? I am still holding it for now.
    Happy trading, Ania

  15. Frank Says:

    Morning, Slava:

    Figures you don’t do any gambling at the casino. I was afraid of that. The biggest casino is right here with markets. Do you look up new 52-week highs to find potential shorts? Or is it just from the media?

    RGR and SWHC look explosive. I will not buy here but I am actually looking to buy these guns and ammo plays, such as SWHC if they dip to my buy points. Sometimes when volume shows up it can just go parabolic, so trade within the lines until they are broken. Shorting is risky, but that’s you’re middle name. Check out the chart:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=RGR&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p46509961146&a=262513967&listNum=22

    I knew it! I knew you didn’t gamble at the casino. Get the book fast.
    Have fun.
    Frank.

  16. Michael Says:

    Hi Ron/AB and others. Any news on the BBD.B this morn? It’s bombing. Thanks.

  17. tony Says:

    CJ and Eve

    must say I disagree with you.

    yes on the weekly price is above the 4MA, and all. but on the weekly price retreated to the 100MA and took some rocket fuel and if you look closely it even had time to form a W.

    now options they are going for 220 and even more,

    when we are wrong (look at slf I sold it at the right time before every pull back but couldn’t time the entry so always had to buy back when it crossed above the MA that was used as resistance. last time it crossed above a resistance 200 I was in it but price pulled back below and I got out thinking it was going to make a few days and get back in but it was an intraday move I sold at 22.6 and now Its at 24.1)

    Now missing a quarter, how many did they miss in the last three quarters theory of HFs miss two quarters in a row and you simply don’t get back in until you get two good quarters in a row.

    you never want to miss the boat on the way up. if you are wrong you have 4-6% trailing stop underneath. thats how you must play the game.

    look at pcln shares were at 67 at the close I could have bought it at 77$ after it reported earnings after the close now its worth 700$

    if you look at AMZN as a 200$ stock then you could look at slf as a 240$ stock

    if amzn drops buy 3$ you could perceive this as 30cents if you look at it as a 20$ stock and you would get in at 19.70$.

  18. Slava Says:

    Frank, thank you very much for RGR.

  19. Slava Says:

    My hgu is not doing well..

  20. Ken/AB Says:

    RGR stopped taking orders for 3 months because they can not keep up with demand. Mark Leibovit has a $12 target on SWHC.

  21. tony Says:

    Slava

    you really love to play with fire

    rgr is at an all time high,

    38MA (43.3)and 50MA(42.3) is daily support, weekly 18 (39$)and 50MA (31$)are the supports if you look at the monthly support is at the 9MA (34$)

    now options
    they are selling the calls 40,45 and 50 for april buying the 50$ puts
    there is some 40$ call buying in october so going for 43 wouldn’t be that bad if you push it you could get 40 but I would think there would be some bounces one would be at 45.

  22. Ron/AB. Says:

    Hi Michael,
    The only new news I have on BBD.B is that they are agressively expanding their sales team in the US.

    It’s a bit overbought and the resistance I have is 4.49. The near term support of 4.30 was breached and this is a bit dissapointing but the daily 4ma is 4.25 and price is still above that. The daily 9ma has crossed the 18ma which is supportive also. Have to see how it closes I guess. I am thinking there is going to be a lot of weirdness in the market in the next few days as the mutual fund managers do their quarter end window dressing but you would know more about this then me, what do you think?

  23. tony Says:

    Micheal

    options on the bomber volume of 5000 for the 4$ puts. there are more buyers then sellers as we speak 1000 for 250 sellers.

  24. Slava Says:

    I bought hvu and shorted CP this morning.. so far so good (stop losses already placed). But existing portfolio is taking a big hit, including my juniors.

  25. Ron/AB. Says:

    Hi Tony,
    Re BBD?
    Are you saying the options data is pointing to $4.00?

  26. Ron/AB. Says:

    Michael,
    Take a look at CAE.to, it has the same price action today as BBD. Hmmm…

  27. Still08 Says:

    Frank: GLUU, nice looking stock, long-term. I would wait until the end of the day before buying, if the price is right. It looks like it could go down a bit more. Why the gap up in price on the 23rd? Gaps are sometimes backfilled.

  28. Ania Says:

    Hi Tony,

    I was wondering what’s your take for CRK:http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CRK&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p10418468671
    It looks as head and shoulder formation, however, all the oscillators are pointing south.
    Thank you, Ania

  29. Frank Says:

    Still08:

    Correct you are! Gaps are sometimes filled, but if not filled it is a very bullish development. When I have time I will show you some charts with action where 3 or 4 gaps were not filled. Whether it was up or down the stocks just keeps going and going like crazy. Huge moves before an ultimate reversal.

    Gotta run.
    Frank.

  30. Michael Says:

    Hi Ron/AB. I hadn’t looked at CAE in ages! I sold the Bomber yesterday at $4.31, thinking that it was going to sell off in the last half hour like it has been doing. So I got back in this morn at $4.26, but don’t like the sound of $4.00!

  31. CJ Says:

    SLAVA #24

    Same here Slava, TCW.TO, SLW.TO & CNQ.TO in particular :(

  32. Ron/AB. Says:

    Michael,
    Good move selling the bomber yesterday as that 4.34 pivot turned out to be resistance. Seems like a bit of general weakness in the broad market today with the weak consumer confidence data?? Also there’s more Eurozone crisis talk:

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/mar/27/oecd-eurozone-crisis-finance-ministers

  33. Ken/AB Says:

    Energy stocks are down sharply (XLE -0.8%) after Schlumberger (SLB -2.6%) said results will be hurt by low natural gas prices.

  34. CJ Says:

    Ron/Michael – not giving up on the Bomber yet! :)

  35. Still08 Says:

    Frank: I think I talk too much; look at GLUU.

  36. David Says:

    I bought a third of a position of BBD.B here and will add to it
    on further declines as long as it does not close much below $4.
    Will also add if it begins to rise on higher volume. Upside potential
    outweighs downside risk.

  37. Ana Says:

    gmsa

    I have heard PAG referred to on CNBC and they clarify it by stating “price, average, global”. I tried to look it up however did not find anything to further the clarification, perhaps it is some new terminology in the stock market.

  38. Ron/AB. Says:

    Hi CJ,
    Re the Bomber
    I just meant that because the the pivot acting as a resistance was hit yesterday, selling could be expected the following day (which is today). Looking at today, it could be a buying opportunity now that the price has come down to retest the 4ma but I would put in a tight stop because it’s a bearish candle that is forming (although we need to see how it looks at the end of the day). It just depends if you are playing this for 1-3 day swing trades or for the seasonal trend.

  39. Harry vella Says:

    Ron/bc was on the money when he said nat gas at $1 plus. Way the go Ron.

  40. gmsa Says:

    Rol Lew, Tony & Ana,
    Again I tried calling ScotiaCapital (efforts in the past were like banging the head on a concrete wall :( )and this time the guy who answered the call had a definite answer without looking it anywhere or thinking about it. My internet searches lead me to no where in the past.

    Within Scotia Capital:
    PAG – Portfolio Advisory Group
    It is a group within Scotia Capital that advises it’s clients on CDN as well as US portfolios based on given term/horizon & risk/reward metrics. And therefore, it’s very common to read this term on their research reports where all their analysts after giving their own analysis mention the PAG recommendation.

    Wish those reports also explain such acronyms.
    Thanks to you all for helping. It is very much appreciated.

  41. CJ Says:

    Ron/AB #38

    Holding 400 shares in my TFSA Ron; will wait it out!

  42. Anna/TO Says:

    Anyone can tell me why is VIX spiking today? Didn’t have the time to read news; S&P flat, so what’s up? thx

  43. gmsa Says:

    Auto Sector
    Does anyone follow this sector or the stocks?
    I am thinking from the short side…thx

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MG.TO,LNR.TO,ORLY,GM,F,TTM,TM,HMC|B|V25

  44. WLM Says:

    For Ric # 8.
    TA.TO
    End of Sep. – 23.20, end of Feb. – 21.20 = resistance,
    Sep. – 21.26, Mar. 18.83 = support for channel “a la Frank”.
    Maybe during Apr. – May “seasonality” TA.TO has room for 1 – 1.5 $ up.
    http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/lou-schizas/transalta-still-fighting-a-downtrend/article2379308/

  45. gmsa Says:

    Re. Auto Sector
    Does anyone follow this sector or the stocks? I am thinking from the short side…
    thx

    http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?MG.TO,LNR.TO,ORLY,GM,F,TTM,TM,HMC

  46. Ray-Kitchener Says:

    Anna/To: You have US housing prices down year over year, consumer confidence down, and Richmond index down. The Ben Bernanke team is very busy keeping the market up, thus the S&P being flat. Fear up a little today. But don’t despair, the Fed is very busy keeping stocks up /flat. Bankers selling to bankers and vice versa. This could go one for quite some time. Watch the $US. More liquidity = lower US$ = higher stock prices, regardless of how many tacos CMG sells. The trend is your friend.

  47. Ron/AB. Says:

    Hi David,
    Re #36 – BBD

    “Upside potential outweighs downside risk.”

    In what timeframe are you referring to? I agree with you if you are talking about a 2 week-2 month time frame but yesterday the risk was higher then the reward if one was looking at a 1-3 day time horizon.

  48. gmsa Says:

    Anna/TO,
    Further to what Ray-Kitch. says @ #45
    Remeber these? ‘don’t fight the fed’ or ‘trend is your friend’
    Here is something to read
    http://www.blackswantrading.com/blog/bid/76490/It-s-a-lay-up-buy-stocks

  49. tony Says:

    Ania

    Sorry for the delay at home taking care of 1yr old who has an eye infection.

    BHI and CRK

    only news I got is the one posted yesterday as BHI said they are lowering their outlook.
    and option as switched moods in the mean time they are selling the calls and buying the puts all the way to 37.

    just as suggested if price breaks below 41.32 or 41.23 don’t recall.

    CRK

    we have two supports on crk in mid march price retreated to the 50MA, and a few days ago hit the 100MA before heading higher.

    options not much to day there is a little selling the june 17.5 calls so don’t think there is much more upside for the time being.

  50. Anna/TO Says:

    Thank you Ray – agree with your general comments, just thought “something happened” today ;) Looks like “sell in May (April?)” might be self-fulfilling prophecy – some sort of correction would be expected after a 4 month run-up.

  51. WLM Says:

    For Ric # 8.
    TA.TO has pressure from Ontario and Fed. for using coal.

    TOT.TO
    News from BNN Shows;
    TOP PICK 18.590 Jason Donville
    3 divisions within the company giving you a broad diversity to a lot of different areas. One of them is compression, which is not that common. Good management. On a valuation trade-off, this is one of the best priced oil/gas services in Canada.
    2012-03-05
    BUY 18.770 Jim Huang
    Good management team. Inexpensive. Well diversified. Getting into tank storage business, which is exciting. 2012-03-01

  52. Anna/TO Says:

    #46 – thank you gmsa

  53. tony Says:

    Ric

    would be nice if you would state the exchange I have to look for tot is total or total energy…

    tot assuming this is on the tsx.

    total I would buy it on the 150MA which was tested thursday, if it holds we see more upside if not ouch below 4-6% stop loss below would be advised.

    cwt/un this is to hard to give an opinion on as it moves like the titanic, it takes more time to move up then it does falling.

    the only downside I have seen thru the charts was on a monthly chart when the 4 crossed below the 9 this was a definite sell. this was in october of 08.

    NPR/un.to

    now this is a chart we can work with.
    if you look at the chart back in october 100MA was a resistance broke through and just recently penetrated below it but ended up the following day bouncing higher so unless it closes below 100MA(30.42) I would be a buyer but if closes below I would definitely sell it.

  54. tony Says:

    Ric

    NPR indicators for the time being are back saying buy

  55. Ania Says:

    Hi Tony,
    Thank you for the insights. I wish your son a fast recovery and I will send him some reiki tonight.

    Happy trading, Ania

  56. Mike Says:

    An ivested letter I subscribe to just advised to buy AUT.V I know its a penny stock . Does anyone have any comments. This guy has been quite good over the last two years.

    Thanks

  57. tony Says:

    gmsa

    the only sector in the car business is the car parts like a azo, especially when you need to change breaks every 40-50000 km and you can push a car or truck a few extra years.

    mg few months back I think I mentioned something like 50$

  58. Ania Says:

    Hi Tony,

    When you have a moment, I will like to paper trade (swing trade, day trading is too hard for me so far); what will be the best way: write the entry price of few securities (on paper), then keep a daily watch on Open/high/low/close and record on my trading journal.
    Any stocks you might suggest for this kind of exercise?

    Happy Trading, Ania

  59. gmsa Says:

    Slava,
    On CP fight:
    The secret plan to bring the O.R. down to low 60s by Pershing Square/Bill Ackman & Hunter Harrison involves replacing those fuel hungry diesel locomotives by…
    horses & moose – as soon as they complete their training @ a secret American Motivational Camp :D

  60. Ric Says:

    WLM, Tony

    Thank you both for the analysis and articles on TA, TOT, NPR.UN, CWT.UN
    I appreciate your help and guidance.

  61. gmsa Says:

    Tony,
    re.#56.
    AZO would not fit in my ‘short-sight’ then, one because of the business profile + the chart. AZO has a chart similar to ORLY. MG.TO & LNR.TO would be a better candidate to short if they fail just like GM & F – which are in distribution phase for past couple of months. Will keep watching for possible downtrend.
    Thx for the input.

  62. gmsa Says:

    Kicking myself now for not placing the market order earlier today for CG.TO when it was @ 12.86. Placed limit order a nickel below that never got filled & now it’s well over 13.70…
    oh well, there is always another day!

  63. Slava Says:

    I’m going to Cancun tomorrow morning.. Probably worst possible timing from the market point of view to be away for 10 days!

  64. Ron/AB. Says:

    Hi Slava, Michael,

    Bought a bit of HGU.to to keep you company.
    I have short term targets at this time.

  65. Ray-Kitchener Says:

    Slava: Do you need someone to carry your suitcase? LOL

  66. Slava Says:

    tony, thank you for RGR.. I shorted around $50.. 1,000 shares. I feel so uneasy about holding short positions in this market. Will probably cover today. My cp short and hvu are working out well today. Too bad I bought so little hvu.

  67. Slava Says:

    CMG.. what a stock. Nothing can bring it down, it’s amazing.

  68. Slava Says:

    Ray, my Michael and I had a big fight and I may be going by myself.. 5-star resort paid for 10 days plus a non-stop flight from Vancouver. Anyone wants to take his place? :)

  69. Slava Says:

    Well guys, it’s 3 p.m. – which way wil we go?

  70. Slava Says:

    The frustrating part about Itrade is that their Sell on stop orders have to be done either at stop price or stop limit price.. a range can not be indicated. With Investorline I can put a stop and a stop limit price on the same screen. It’s a real problem when I short and try to put a buy on stop order. Any suggestions?

  71. Ray-Kitchener Says:

    Slava: Sorry to hear about that. Have a great time and don’t bring your computer. Enjoy and have fun. Trading and vacations don’t mix. Put your sell/cover targets in and leave them there. Some will get hit.

  72. CJ Says:

    GMSA #61 – exactly what happened to me with RAX this morning :( I lowered my expectations and changed the bid, but although it did go that low I was not filled :(

  73. CJ Says:

    Slava #66 – bet it would drop if I bought some LOL!!!

  74. tony Says:

    Ray ,

    habla espanol

    si senor ;)

  75. Slava Says:

    I am thinking of buying CSX (railroad) for a hold.. much better value than CP.

  76. tony Says:

    Slava

    when going on vacation 2 rules to follow

    1 don’t put trades in knowing you won’t be monitoring them

    2 have a good time

  77. Slava Says:

    short cp long csx? Perhaps this what a hedge fund would do.

  78. Ray-Kitchener Says:

    Tony: Una cerveza, por favor. Vino tinto para la cena.

  79. Slava Says:

    tony, I’m pretty much fully invested so all the trades have been placed.. now it’s monitoring time. Free wifi in the lobby, that’s where I will be found during market hours.. with a large drink.

  80. CJ Says:

    Tony can you reply to my #7 regarding TD.TO – it is dropping today, do you see it still a hold???? Thanks.

  81. Frank Says:

    Still08:

    No worries. You are indeed correct that most gaps get filled, but the odd time they do not they can actually turn into screaming one way moves. I’ll bet you a beer we see GLUU at $6 before $4.20. One way or the other there should be money to be made on this one.

    Have fun.
    Frank.

  82. tony Says:

    Ania

    I<m the one who will need some reiki if he continues on his destruction spree.

    About paper trading,

    go about my trading strategy, 4/9/18…., W%R, MACD, volume. don't forget th4 price vs 4Ma

    take any stock you would like to follow, and see how it behaved using the MAs as resistance and support in the past and from there you will be able to see where most should come back to if something is not good.

    about BHI look how its behaving for a company that gave out bad outlook you would think it would be a lot lower then current price but it hasn't so stick with that 6% downside protection if it fails then you will known it should have more down to go.

  83. Michael Says:

    Hi Slava. I would gladly take Michael’s place but I’m off to AZ on Thursday. Well, at least you won’t be limited to the 10 minutes per day checking the markets!

  84. tony Says:

    Slava

    god girl send me your ticket I’ll enjoy myself more then you will, ok except I won’t ;)

    he can look for another senorita, I’ ll manage my own senorita :D

  85. Frank Says:

    Slava: Sell to the sleep point so you don’t have to worry while on vacation. Make a little money, lose a little, who cares. Have a blast! You only live once.

    Frank.
    P.S. Let me know if you don’t make up with Michael on time, as I’ll send my wife down to meet up with you. LOL! Not exactly the romantic getaway you were imagining. Oh, just make up with him and go have fun.

  86. mick/nv Says:

    Slava

    You should be lying on the beach during mkt hours not sitting in the lobby. you can probably access wifi from there, you will need to give it a try. I did that when I was in Jamaica although I wasn’t glued to my screen, just checked every once in awhile.
    I would love to come with you but I need to save my vacation for dec and another trip to the Jamaica. Have fun and check in on occasion.

  87. tony Says:

    Micheal

    taking The russian rockets place in the sun are you kidding me, Its Slava’s place for the taking enjoying a nice daiquiri in the sun and she will be in the lobby checking her investments.

    I take off all my investments except for big caps when I go on vacation.

  88. Still08 Says:

    Frank: The way it’s looking I’ll not bet a beer, hoping for a low of $4.47 today before it continues up. Money to be made. $6?, I’m thinking $5.30.

  89. Ron/AB. Says:

    Michael, Slava,
    Well that was short, I got stopped out already on HGU. There was a gap that was filled at 10.12 but it has broken below that now. I don’t know if I just got whipsawed but I’m out for now. May go back in if it can close above 10.12.

    Slava, hope you have a great trip.

  90. Frank Says:

    Still08: I’m not talking day trading.

  91. tony Says:

    Total 192596 this is MFC on the M-X

    they are trading the 2013 calls 45K at 10, 75000 contracts 14 , and 75000 contracts at 17

  92. Frank Says:

    Tony: I’m just picturing you trying to type and check stocks while your son wreaks havoc. Been there, done that. LMAO!
    Did you buy AVL back again? I did my weekly check and I see it improving.

    Frank.

  93. Slava Says:

    Well, speaking of the devil, they just delivered flowers to my work from the Russian Rocket.. with a card in which he is apologizing for being “difficult”. I guess he is coming with me after all. And after Cancun – who knows? I may have to end it.

  94. Slava Says:

    I got stopped out of hvu.. what a day for it though.. +20%

  95. Slava Says:

    These days CMG doesn’t even come down low enough to touch 4-day ma..

  96. Ana Says:

    Slava,

    HVU just reached 4MA at 4.12

  97. CJ Says:

    Congratulations on the HVU trade Slava – nice vacation money ;)

  98. Frank Says:

    Still08: Sorry! I need to give my head a shake some times. Painkillers! Never mind. GLUU, 5.30, I’ll take it. Hesitates, dips to $5, Then off again to $6 if volume patterns continue. Don’t you just love the Stock Market?
    Frank.

  99. Michael Says:

    Hi Ron/AB. You just didn’t want to keep Slava and myself company! I bought HZD yesterday and sold this aft. I’m not sure if silver is going to show some strength this week, so I made enough to buy my AZ morning coffee and treat!

  100. Slava Says:

    Well, I have $270k in short positions right now but the shorted stocks are not falling as much % as HGU..

  101. Slava Says:

    CJ, my hgu is down by $7k today. So no vacation money for me.

  102. Slava Says:

    Ironic how gold stocks went down when the markets went up and now they are going down with the market.

  103. Slava Says:

    Good day for Osisko, I’m wondering if I should reduce my position from 2k shares to 1k shares.. hmm. Tony, do you know why Osisko is up today? I didn’t see any news.

  104. Still08 Says:

    Frank: Tis interesting times! Have to leave now.

  105. Ron/AB. Says:

    Hi Michael.
    Well what can I say. I’m seeing a lot of potential buys but they are not quite confirmed yet. Everytime I try and play them I’m getting whipsawed. The stocks I’m looking at are all in the “flypaper” channel as S. Whiteside calls it so they are knid of in their neutral zones with out a clear swing trade signal.

    HGU now at 10.00, could be a pop tomorrow off of the 9ma..

  106. Slava Says:

    I only made $1k on hvu.. I originally bought 6k shares at av. cost of $4.57 but then got stopped out at a small loss.. I bought back later but very few shares. Oh well.

  107. Slava Says:

    Will I be missed when I’m in Cancun for 10 days? ;)

  108. Slava Says:

    mick, I know you’ll miss me the most.. but no worries – I plan to post as time allows …lol

    This is where I plan to be 48 hours from now:

    http://www.google.ca/search?hl=en&sugexp=frgbld&gs_nf=1&pq=hotel+nordeste+playa&cp=18&gs_id=2h&xhr=t&q=isla+mujeres+playa+norte&bav=on.2,or.r_gc.r_pw.r_qf.,cf.osb&biw=1280&bih=843&wrapid=tljp1332879121357228&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&ei=Hh9yT4OyLqWGsAK4mNH9BQ

  109. tony Says:

    Slava

    HVU

    is a child it simply get ahead of itself and ends up coming back to the 4MA every time.

    osk.to
    don’t see any problem problem on osk few days ago price was getting away and now its come back tagged the 4 today, is now +1.81% on the day what can you ask more on it.

  110. CJ Says:

    Well believe it or not I was filled at 58.80 so I now have a position in RAX – pretty volatile stock been watching it all day. It opened at 58.58 and hit a high of 59.43 and closed at 58.64. Underwater already!

    Now I am on the road all day tomorrow; where would you put your limit bid on this one???

  111. mick/nv Says:

    Slava

    that place is beautiful, yes, I will be going thru Slava withdrawals. remember, no tan lines. Have a great trip!

  112. Ania Says:

    Tony,

    I can send Reiki energy as well as your son.
    I have been watching BHI all day and it’s not loosing much ground. I put stop loss below it’s day low (around 6%).
    Have yourself a great evening and many thanks for your help, Ania

  113. Rol Lew Says:

    Anna re # 58

    many sites allow you to set up a fake
    portfolio. stockscores.com can use USA
    and/ or Cdn stocks.
    others to look into….yahoo finance, google finance

  114. WLM Says:

    Tony # 109.

    I found for OSK.TO;
    Transaction Mar 23/12, Disposition in the public market – 170,500 x from $10.88 to $10.93
    Transaction Mar 23/12, Exercise of options – 170,500 x $5.33

    You should be adviser to President, not his bad broker.

  115. Ania Says:

    Hi Rol Lew,

    I went to stockchart.com and what tab I need to click on to create a fake portfolio
    Thank you very much, Ania

  116. Rol Lew Says:

    Ania,

    First get site membership – StockScores Basic.

    http://www.stockscores.com/products.asp?page=membership

    create a user name (create a yahoo or google email address just for this)

    & create your password

    BTW – this is a very good site for the serious, patient, swing trader.

    Tyler covers both Cdn & US stocks

  117. Ania Says:

    Hi Rol Lew,

    Thank you very much for the information. I just registered and I am ready to go.
    Have a great evening, Ania

  118. Eve Says:

    Hi Tony,

    AMZN has missed earnings twice in the last 2 quarters of reporting. I wrote about it missing several times in the last year to Ana last night in my post on AMZN and other stocks in the penalty box like RVBD and SNDK as they’ve also missed earnings several times within the last year and are both now in a trading range in price until their next reporting.

    I wrote about how when a stock only misses once in a long while, they are given leeway by the markets and can go up (just like AMZN did in Aug 2010) but that after missing several times within a short period of a year or so, the stock will be put into the penalty box until it can prove itself at its next earnings release – and beat! AMZN missed in its recent one that you know about too (from Feb 2012) AND it missed its last quarter too from Oct 2011 – that’s why I wrote what I did about it. Here’s the info on it from Oct 2011:

    http://blogs.wsj.com/marketbeat/2011/10/25/amazon-misses-on-earnings-revenue-stock-tanks/

    It also missed in Aug 2010 – so, more than a year agu – so, it has been forgiven for that miss – it was forgiven on the SAME day it missed!!! as it closed the day before at $118, it missed on earnings and opened the next day at $105 and then went up to $120 that day and closed at $118 – then continued on up from there. So, it was given its leeway at that time – but for now it has missed twice in the last 2 earnings (it also missed in April 2011 too – so, several times in the last year) – so, that’s why I don’t see it going to $220 anytime soon.

    Eve

  119. CJ Says:

    Eve dear, can you please comment on #110????

    Will not be able to monitor tomorrow, so I really need some guidance on how to project where to put my sell limit. Thanks so much.

  120. tony Says:

    Frank

    AVL.to

    you can say that again man I just finished putting this house together, now him destroying it good god.

    finally asleep. and one gate broken what a luck I had two of them so had to put up the ugly white metal safety gate.

    well this son of a gun of AVL simply doens’t want to break above 150MA I got in after it pulled back from the 50MA as it tested the 9MA and the next day was exactly at the same place 9MA holding so I got in at 2.76 and holding on as this one could easily in less then a week break above 150MA if it does I simply hope to be able to put as much money as I can in it as it would be nice to double up after 3 lousy trades that simply added up to a 12% total loss on a small part of my portfolio in the last few months.

  121. Eve Says:

    Hi CJ,

    Oh I wished you had bought it first thing this morning and then sold at just over $59. Ok, RAX will most likely pull back tomorrow to its 4 day MA which is showing as of today as $57.48 (so, it will be a higher price tomorrow). And after it pulls back to its 4 day, then it may just move higher from there to get to that $60 price – it could happen tomorrow OR it could happen the next day (like on Thursday). If it goes below its 4 day, then its 9 day MA is close by at $57.18 (this price will be higher tomorrow).

    So, as long as it doesn’t close below $57, then it should head to $60 in the very near term. There’s also support though too at $56 and at $55.50 and at $55. So, potentially, it could pull back to any of these prices before making a run up to $60. But each pullback it has had in the last 2 months has been met with buying – so, if it gets to $55 area, i would expect buyers to step in once again and drive it back up to get to that $60 level.

    The stock has had 3 up days in a row – so, if there is a down day tomorrow to its 4 day MA, don’t worry about that as it will most likely head up the next day after that and try for that $60 (it performed this way the last time it did a strong run up to its high reached – had 3 up days, then 1 down day just to get to its 4 day MA and then up the next day to make a new high – did this about 2 weks ago). It’s been a strong stock – both this year from Jan to March (thus far) and was strong too in 2011 from Jan til beginning of May when it went from $31 in jan 2011 to $48.50 by beginning of May (then started to decline with the markets and hit its bottom at $30/ $31 in October). So, it should stay strong until the markets do their big pull back – whenever that may be – maybe in April?? but maybe in May.

    Top of keltner (2.5) right now is showing as $60.32 – so, that could easily be a price target for it in the near term.

    It’s also been rumoured for over a year now to be a strong takeover candidate – so, that keeps the stock elevated. It got an upgrade in price last week too to $64 from some US firm.

    Hope this helps CJ :)

    Eve

  122. CJ Says:

    Eve#121 – Thank you Eve, I have done my TA and have all my Resistance and support figures. I did try to get in first thing this morning Eve; it just popped up too fast for me LOL Next time I spend hours deciding what stock to buy the next morning, I’m putting in my opening bid the night before :)

    The indicators are somewhat mixed: CCI overbought&neutral;Wm%R overbought&neg; RSI/Stoch “+ive” – so I expect a “mixed bag” Options call for $60 so somewhere close to the top of the 2.5 Keltner seem like a good target; if it does not go there tomorrow, I can watch it more closely Thursday.

    Appreciate your pointing me to this stock; I;m pretty sure I remember seeing it mentioned on here before, but I have a very short memory!!

    Have a great evening!

  123. Brian Says:

    Hi Eve and Tony,

    Can you tell me if it is time to purchase BHI.ny or is there more to the down side. It is looking pretty oversold to me, but I am not sure if it has more to fall

  124. tony Says:

    Ania

    thats not what you want to be doing looking indefinitely to your portfolio, as you have a life to live.

    I look my portfolio twice a day Usually the night before I decide what I will do with my money and the stocks either buy,sell or hold (if I was taken out) and the next morning I take action in put my buy orders on limit trades on limits before the open if everything is intact(no earnings or commentary from the company that could jeopardize my decision or stock price).

    When do I take my decisions 90% taken after a good night sleep and 10% at night.

    why 10% at night because emotions always plays a role in our judgement. In the morning you are not blinded by the way your portfolio behaved the day before.

  125. Eve Says:

    Hi Brian,

    The other oil stocks in the same sector of BHI haven’t been doing well either – SLB especially. So with the warning BHI gave recently, I can’t say right now where it might turn around from here as it hasn’t been this low in price since the Oct 4th 2011 low for all the stocks when the SPX hit its low of 1074. It bottomed there at $41.67 (in Oct 2011) – but I feel it could fall further than that – especially when looking at the “weekly” chart as on the weekly, stochastics is not even “yet” oversold – and the stock hasn’t yet reached the bottom keltner either. Once it reaches the keltner bottom though on the weekly (at $39.28 as of today) (IF it goes that low from here), then stoch should be oversold at that point and that is where BHI may find a bid from buyers (and IF it goes there in price, it will be VERY oversold on the DAILY chart too).

    There’s strong support too at $40 – so, it may just get to that level and bounce up from there. IF it does go below $40, then it might go to the keltner bottom of that $39 level and bounce up from there (OR at the keltner 3.0 extreme setting when the stock’s price is at $37.21 – and there is strong support nearby that price at $36.28 from a low reached in 2010) – so any of these levels IF it goes below $40, could be potential targets for a turnaround in price to come in. OR it could actually just turn around from here in price due to it being very close to the Oct 2011 low where it found support AND due to it now being at the keltner 3.0 bottom which is often where buyers will come in once a stock goes BELOW the keltner 3.0 bottom price – and the keltner 3.0 price is at $42.16 as of today – and price today went to $41.95 on the close.

    Here’s the weekly chart I’m referring to:

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BHI&p=W&b=7&g=0&id=p96686792555

    So, I’m so sorry Brian that I can’t be more definitive than that but when the sector is selling down as much as it is (like SLB for example) AND when a single stock in that sector issues a profit warning which drives it lower than it would normally go to in a sell off of the sector, then it can be hard to know definitively where that stock may find its bottom – as it can fall through past support to get to its next support level – that’s why I say it “possibly” could fall to its 2010 low of that $36 area before buyers come in – it’s just up in the air right now. You’ll know when buyers step in though as the stock will make a big move up on higher volume. So, that’s all I can tell you Brian – sorry :(

    Eve

  126. tony Says:

    Brian

    Already put out my comment on BHI, then they came out with a statement and on this matter two I gave new indication to BHI but first comment should see the downside protection you need.

  127. Muntazir Says:

    Eve
    Nice to read your postings.
    Tony,
    I was pleased to read about your 10 sectors. My ideal portfolio ( not there yet) is combination/hybrid of your 10 sectors ( 2 minute portfolio by Rob Carrick- 2 stocks from each sector) and Cannuks RRSP portfolio with emphasis on dividends + 10 more stocks ( i.e. 2-5% for each stock).
    At the moment I am looking at energy sector & wanted to either add to PGF ( cost price 10.75) OR CNQ ( cost 38.15). Which one would you suggest for short term holding( 1 year) OR should I forget energy sector now as seasonality not working??

    Thanks in advance

  128. tony Says:

    CPX.to

    Someone asked about capital power cpx.to they issued 8.5Mil $ worth of new shares at 23.55$ price is currently at 24.40 so this should be a warning that there is some downside risk to consider.

  129. Slava Says:

    tony, Eve, what are your thoughts on Precision drilling.. pd.to? Looks oversold to me. Decent fundamentals.

    http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PD.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p21661409375

    And how about fm.to? Thank you.

  130. Eve Says:

    Thank you Muntazir :)

    e.

  131. Slava Says:

    NTR

    I just got home from work.. so tired. Now I need to start packing asap. Luckily my flight is at noon BC time.

  132. Eve Says:

    Hi slava,

    FM looks like it wants to go lower – maybe to support at $18.40 to 50 area which is right around the bottom keltner 2.5 at $18.37. Keltner 3.0 bottom is at $17.98 – so, it looks like it should find support very soon at around the $18 level to $18.50.

    PD:

    Looks close to a bottom – lots of support between $9.38 to $9.85 – bottom keltner 3.0 is at $9.88 – so, very close by as the stock went today to $9.99 and closed at $10.00. Looks like a big down day today though but not sure why – so, not sure if there is a fundamental reason there that could cause it to fall below its support level in the $9′s – if it finds support here and goes higher, then upside looks limited for now to around $10.90 to $11.00 area (mid keltner).

    That’s all I can tell you on these 2 hun :)

    Have an awesome flight tomorrow!!! And make sure to stop by here with updates on your wonderful and fun filled trip – ok? :)

    Ok, bye for now hun :)

    Eve

  133. Slava Says:

    tony, have you noticed Osisko’s volume today? It’s up on a huge volume. I made add more tomorrow.

  134. Slava Says:

    Hi dear Eve, thank you for your email and your note above on pd and fm :) I’m not sure I’ll be able to relax since I have so much on my mind. Perhaps if I drink heavily ..lol.. As I posted on here earlier Michael and I “sort of” made up and are going to Cancun together. I hope he doesn’t drive me crazy as he definitely has a controlling streak and I’m not used to that. Oh well.. I’m looking forward to getting out of Vancouver as it’s so cold, rainy and miserable here. I’ll be loggin into my email periodically.

  135. tony Says:

    Muntazir,

    the type of portfolio you are building will be hard to follow,

    so best thing Is get in at good prices on dividend paying stocks, and you let them run, then the rest you need to have time to monitor them this is why 10 is the most I recommend as it takes in avg 1yr if you do a full analysis on a company(fundies, seasonality, TA….)

    About the energy space feel as if they all have lost their traction,

    PGF couldn’t make it above 50MA(this is 5 days ago)
    CNQ mid feb made a run to the 50 just to fall even harder.

    I would have already bailed on both of them here.
    I have to say I would prefer buying into a pwt.to if you look at its chart back in november it hit a plateau at the 100MA and pulled back once completed moved higher, now we are there right on support(100MA) so worst case you have a stop just below 200MA(19.63) which is 5.3% from todays close.

  136. Anna/TO Says:

    Slava, OSK had huge insider buying today:
    Insider Buys Volume: 2,517,107 (Buy Value $ 27,763,690.21)
    Insider Sells Volume: 300,000 (Sell Value $ 3,318,458.00)

    Bon Voyage! :)

  137. tony Says:

    WLM

    what are you getting at with the following statement?

    You should be adviser to President, not his bad broker.

    1st part looks flattering second part I get a slap in the face…
    Sorry if I don’t understand I feel as if you are insinuating that I manage his money. and doing a crapy job at it.

  138. tony Says:

    Slava

    will give you the advice my best friend gave to me when I was going out with this girl he wasn’t fond of,

    go on vacation for 1week if after that week you felt like you wanted to get away from her, or want to kill someone don’t get involved.

    best advice I ever got.

  139. tony Says:

    Slava

    PD.to

    has more room to fall.

    osk.to

    Didn’t mention that options were going for 14$ on this one?

  140. tony Says:

    CJ

    you asked td earlier today.

    I recall saying something on it after you asked about it, now what did I say don’t recall either sell or have a trailing stop.

    so here have a trailing stop beneath 18MA on TD

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