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Editor’s Note: Mr. Vialoux is scheduled to appear on BNN Television tomorrow (Friday) at approximately 4:50 PM EDT.
Pre-opening Comments for Thursday March 29th 2012
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 6 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures moved lower following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus for updated fourth quarter GDP was 3.1%, up from 3.0% previously announced. Actual was unchanged at 3.0%.Consensus for weekly initial jobless claims was 345,000. Actual was 359,000.
Best Buy fell $0.57 to $26.05 after lowering guidance.
Red Hat increased $3.96 to $55.35 after reporting higher than consensus quarterly results.
Wells Fargo added $0.05 to $34.52 after Nomura upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy.
Nexen is expected to open higher after TD Securities upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy.
AT&T fell $0.27 to $31.09 and Verizon eased $0.19 to $38.07 after RW Baird downgraded the stocks from Outperform to Neutral.
Magna International is expected to open lower after Citigroup downgraded the stock from Neutral to Sell.
Potash Corp. eased $0.83 to $45.30 despite initiated coverage by Raymond James with an Outperform recommendation and an initiated coverage by Stifel Nicolaus with a Buy recommendation. Stifel Nicolaus also initiated coverage on Agrium with a Buy recommendation.
Technical Watch
Magna International Inc. (NYSE:MGA) – $48.42 is expected to open lower after Citigroup downgraded the stock from Neutral to Sell. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Seasonal influences are positive. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index has been positive since mid-December. However, short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to its 50 day moving average at $45.17.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/clip_image001114.png "clip_image001[1]")
Magna International Inc. (USA) (NYSE:MGA) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/image.png "clip_image002[1]")
Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC) – $34.52 added 0.2% after Nomura upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since late November. Seasonal influences are positive. Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but continue to trend higher. Preferred strategy is to accumulate at current or lower prices.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/clip_image003115.png "clip_image003[1]")
Wells Fargo & Company (NYSE:WFC) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image435.png "clip_image004[1]")
Nexen Inc. (NYSE:NXY;TSE: NXY) – $17.80 is expected to open higher after TD Securities upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy. The stock has a mixed technical profile. Intermediate trend is neutral. Seasonal influences are positive. However, the stock recently fell below its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index was positive from December to February, but recently has turned negative. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but continue to trend down. No opinion is offered.
![clip_image005[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/clip_image005113.png "clip_image005[1]")
Nexen Inc. (TSE:NXY) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image006[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image483.png "clip_image006[1]")
Interesting Chart
Gasoline prices across most of Canada bumped higher last night. Prices in Canada are directly connected to prices in the RBOB market in New York. Gasoline inventories in the U.S. have a significant impact on gasoline prices. Inventories peaked in mid-February and continue to move lower. Gasoline prices have moved significantly higher since then. Inventories last week fell another 3.5 million barrels versus consensus at 2.2 million barrels. Average retail price in the U.S. reached $3.91 per gallon. A normal retail mark up above the wholesale price is $0.70-$0.80 per gallon implying that the average retail price possibly will reach over $4.00 per gallon before the Easter long weekend. Obama is rumored to be preparing a proposal to releasing crude oil from the Strategic Oil Reserve in order to “jawbone” gasoline prices lower. A similar action was taken by Obama in mid-March last year. Gasoline prices dipped briefly on the news, but broke to a new high before the end of March. Gasoline price are moving higher due to a lack of supply of gasoline, not crude oil.
Weekly Review of Select Sector SPDRs
Technology
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades well above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are irrelevant as long as the uptrend line remains intact.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Materials
· Intermediate trend is down. Support is at $35.66 and resistance is at $37.83.
· Trades above its 200 day moving average, but fell below its 50 day moving average yesterday.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing signs of rolling over.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Consumer Discretionary
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades well above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are irrelevant as long as the uptrend line remains intact.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Industrials
· Intermediate trend is up. Resistance has formed at $38.11.
· Trades above its 200 day moving average and is holding above its 50 day moving average.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought and have rolled over.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Energy
· Intermediate trend changed from up to down on a break below support at $72.30.
· Trades above its 200 day moving average, but fell below its 50 day moving average earlier this week.
· Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Financials
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades well above its 50 and 200 day moving average.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are irrelevant as long as the uptrend line remains intact.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Consumer Staples
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades well above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are irrelevant as long as the uptrend line remains intact.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is neutral/negative.
Health Care
· Intermediate trend is up.
· Trades well above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are irrelevant until the uptrend line is broken.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative, but is showing signs of change.
Utilities
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $33.83 and resistance is at $35.94.
· Trades above its 200 day moving average and moved back above its 50 day moving average.
· Short term momentum indicators are neutral.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
NY Harbor Blendstock RBOB Futures (RB) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC March 28th 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: MGA, NXY, WFC
March 29th, 2012 at 8:25 am
It appears that the lack of pipeline capacity is limiting oil export out of Canada and are likely the cause for depressed SU, CNQ and CVE prices. I saw an article last week saying Canadian oil producers were getting only $80/bbl. Link pipeline bottleneck article.
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2012/03/29/uk-oil-idUKBRE82S04B20120329?feedType=RSS&feedName=GCA-GoogleNewsUK
March 29th, 2012 at 9:08 am
Ron/AB: Yesterday, you said, annotating a chart is visual representation of the trading plan for a stock. Never thought of it that way, I like that.
March 29th, 2012 at 9:17 am
More on crude oil – from anaylst’s report.
While the economic outlook – especially in Europe – remains uncertain, the EIA is
forecasting continued growth. Unusually cold winter weather in Europe contributed to
tighter markets by increasing the demand for heating oil, particularly in February.
Add to this current geopolitical uncertainties, and we think Brent crude oil prices will remain high.
We have increased our Brent forecast to US$115/bbl and US$112/bbl for 2012
and 2013, respectively, while our WTI crude oil forecast increases to US$105/bbl
for both years. Strong Brent prices and WTI prices (to a lesser extent), however, are
only a part of the story for the Canadian producers. Both light and heavy differentials(to WTI) have also risen. This is largely a function of pipeline takeaway constraints and rising crude oil supply out of the oil sands and the North Dakota Bakken. This light differential discount has ranged from US$1.25/bbl to US$23.00/bbl in Q1/12, given growing U.S. and WCSB production and infrastructure
issues at Cushing. We forecast the WTI-Edmonton differential to narrow in H2/12 but to remain at relatively wider levels through 2012. Heavy oil prices have also been
negatively affected by a wider differential, with the WTI-WCS differential discount
averaging US$27.15 in Q1/12. Again, we expect this differential to narrow in H2/12
with refinery turnarounds complete.
March 29th, 2012 at 9:32 am
Morning, all:
Yes, that was brilliant! I have actually almost panicked out of a stock as I was watching the action one day. Then I looked back at my daily and weekly charts. I had annotated the weekly looking for a lower potential buy point. Instead of taking a loss, I stayed in the stock, it turned higher, I bought more and eventually had about 15% on a swing trade. You are correct and the picture is always worth a thousand words. I may have something to do with the way the brain works. I don’t know.
One other thing…. when I look at charts occasionally, weekly for example, I am much calmer and rational in my planning and decision-making. If I catch myself staring at the computer or watching the noise on TV, I can easily make errors.
Still08: What is your guess on GLUU at this point? In my eyes the great volume should lead to much higher prices, but of course, the increased volatility could result in my loading up even more at lower prices.
Have fun.
Frank.
March 29th, 2012 at 10:10 am
Still08, Frank,
Thanks. There is definitely some selling going on today. Good trading.
March 29th, 2012 at 10:28 am
Frank: I’m watching another stock right now, it’s all absorbing.
GLUU is trying to reset. I think $4.62 will be the lowest it can go. The $4.69 might hold. The uptrend is still a ways to go. I can see a high of $5.45 at this time.
Ron/AB: Not a pretty day on the market for selling. Seems like people are “throwing in the towel”.
March 29th, 2012 at 10:33 am
Still08: Thanks. GLUU right at the bottom uptrend line if you look at a 5 day chart. Lower volume today so this needs to hold for the short term if they want to let it explode later. Thanks.
May I ask what stock you are currently watching for a buy? Have fun.
Frank.
March 29th, 2012 at 10:38 am
Frank: Won’t say, not until it’s a done deal!
March 29th, 2012 at 10:42 am
Tony: Bought back some SNC, could you please check if options are still at $44. at your convenience. Thanks.
March 29th, 2012 at 11:34 am
Still08: I’ll share what I’m watching. You would have had to buy this one within the first 10 minutes of trading on the day it exploded, almost doubling a 3 days. Now I would like to see an up day on increased volume for an entry point. Have a look at this beauty. I’d like to catch the next explosive move:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=JVA&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p27421987676&a=262757167&r=60&listNum=13
Enjoy!
Frank.
March 29th, 2012 at 11:45 am
Oilers
Did anyone go long here oil? Or is this a head fake?
March 29th, 2012 at 11:49 am
Margin: Decided to dump BBD.B, not going where I want it to… also AQN… don’t like the charts, yield not great so not worth hanging on to. I also took profits in MFC and SLF…I think I can buy them back lower…both way overbought in here and starting to turn over…so should drop down to support around 50 or 200 DMA….if not, no big deal I’ll move on. But I am very bullish on those last 2 names….
In any case I need to raise some cash so I can buy something more interesting over the next few days….
March 29th, 2012 at 11:51 am
Frank: JVA must be a buy on rumour. Pretty hard to catch those ones. I agree with you that there is time to watch this one for an entry point.
Market seems to be holding. Once the market makers are gone for lunch, I’m thinking the market will fall a bit more.
March 29th, 2012 at 11:56 am
Hi all. What an ugly market today. I’m flying down to AZ now so I’ll catch you all tomorrow!
March 29th, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Webinar later today: You might be interested.
http://webinar.dtitrader.com/20120329/RegisterPage.aspx?ActID=1045
March 29th, 2012 at 12:10 pm
Michael: Have a safe and enjoyable trip. Will miss your posting, let us know when you see the market turning around. Well, guess we will have to wait till tomorrow.
March 29th, 2012 at 12:23 pm
Hey, everyone. Michael, enjoy, golf, have fun.
Markets very interesting. Golds looking like they wish to break down, and if so, we are heading much lower. We may get huge discounts on Gold stocks in a while. Oil is desperately trying to hold the previously breakout point near $103.50. However, XLE, USO and others look like they have already rolled over. The above, other metal stocks, etc. need some great upwards action very soon if the powers that be wish to hold these levels. It doesn’t look promising.
And how about these markets? China looks weak and heading down. Markets selling when they should be getting end of month buys. Perhaps “End-of-month-let-me-take-my-profits-before-they-all-disappear” type of action happening here.
Weeeee! This is fun!
Frank.
March 29th, 2012 at 12:26 pm
BIR.to
I was about to buy bir.to this past week but never came through…
1st that was a lucky break for me,
2nd they weren’t bought out as they put themselves for sale,
3rd they issued new shares that was not there late last night.
-17% would have destroyed my poor heart
March 29th, 2012 at 12:33 pm
Kay
not big action today on SNC.to option, now the bad thing is that 38 is where people are PUTting their downside limit they are trading
there is barely 320 contract traded today and 110 of them is 38 puts. so this is where I would bailout if it breaks below.
March 29th, 2012 at 12:36 pm
Hi Michael,
Have a great trip! Take you mind off these ugly markets for awhile.
March 29th, 2012 at 12:38 pm
Ana: I am going to nibble at buying more long in the next couple of days. Oil is getting whacked around today due to the reserve talk. We still have the Arab spring coming up and Iran is the wildcard. Oil blew past resistance at 104.70 and my target of 104.50. At 103, we have not seen that level since February 17th. I am not sure how much more we could go down , however I will be watching carefully and once we start going back up, I will be buying. Today, I have been in and out of SCO and am hedged against my longs from yesterday when it got to my target at 104.50.
March 29th, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Canuck
if you saw my note tuesday
MFC 200K contracts 75K call contracts for 14$(don’t recall the strike month) and for Jan 2013 they’ve traded 75K call contrats for 17$ strike price.
SLF they are limiting the upside to 24$ this is where they’ve put their call limit for april expiration 500 contracts.
March 29th, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Michael have a nice sunny trip in AZ.
March 29th, 2012 at 12:47 pm
Markets looks like it wants to turn around. AAPL turned up from the low.
March 29th, 2012 at 12:49 pm
Tony: I’ve been watching BIR.TO, not to buy yet. Quite the developments. What do you think of the call buying for April $14 today?
March 29th, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Frank: I bought AVL.TO
March 29th, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Any one read my comment late last night?
Spx tuesday got away from the 4MA.
now if only bears could make their run in an orderly fashion without having to much sugar intake and we would be in for the wildest ride of our lives.
Oh and I would be piling in on aapl, was at the mall yesterday trying to get my 1yr old to fall asleep, and passed by apple store wow it was crowded with old mama’s asked a sales rep if it was above usual crowd and she told me it was dead compared to all other days, (it was 12.45pm) so my first reaction was wow!!!! most electronic stores if they had 3 person was look at that they are not closed.
only other boutique that had the more then 5 people shopping was children place. and this was not including me and time 12.46 as store is just across the Apple store.
March 29th, 2012 at 12:53 pm
# 22 Tony…MFC..nope, was not long on site yesterday.
MFC is the most shorted stock on TSX…this one is a “must own on strength” and a “must sell on weakness”. I love trading most shorted stocks, when they move up shorts must cover stops so domino effect on the upside…
Waiting for a cheaper price in next few days…when it finds support. Very bullish on both names…based on sector rotation model and improving US economy (markets are seeing higher interest rates in the future) and asset management earnings improving. Both have positive trendlines… overbought here, need to cool off a little bit.
Options are like shorts, someone’s opinion of the stock…. interesting but doesn’t mean they’re right. I let the cycle and the charts guide me….
March 29th, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Frank: I agree, as long as you are in cash. I am 90% in cash (10% Oil long and short), so we will watch very carefully and hopefully pick up something good when Ben starts printing.
March 29th, 2012 at 12:59 pm
MFC & SLF
If you’re a believer in TLT, why would someone hold these two beyond just few months?
Currency printing will keep TBT in check.
Even if they don’t print more greenbacks, they will have to keep mortgage rates low (by some financial engineering) for housing support which inturn will support consumer sentiment & ‘perception’ of wealth. Long term job creation is another piece in the puzzle.
But then again, as Stephen Whiteside says ‘never ask why’, understandably these irrational markets can make you lose your own rationale!
Just like another fact – ‘Listen to the Economists but don’t put your money on their views’!
.
Tawny,
Thx for the link & the read in yesterday’s post.
.
Ray – Kitchener,
Are you still playing the daily moves in SPX with spxu/sso/upro? Thx.
March 29th, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Still
I think we are in the same boat…I saw the same activity but these are all sellers at this point trying to get some back.
if you had told me october 14$ I would have said why not but doubling my money after they issued new shares at 7.65$ for a total of 8Mil$ no thanks it won’t be doing this at this time
We could see in a distant future 9.20$ and am I precise they issued flow through common shares(still don’t know what it does) for a total of 1Mil $
so we could see price in the before the end of the seasonal play on oil.
March 29th, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Hi Eve,
I was what’s your take for COG: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p37983416767
It seems that COG is in oversold but still going south.
Thank you, Ania
March 29th, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Still08: That’s funny. AVL I believe Ron/AB has that and Tony and I have been in and out. Interesting! I like to look at REE for leadership and AVL to follow the big moves. I like it.
Good trading.
Frank.
March 29th, 2012 at 1:14 pm
gmsa: I have not recently as I have been focused on Oil and updating my favorite stocks for entry points if we get to 1340 – 1350 area on the S&P. Mind you with May coming up, I may continue to just day trade. This market is so manipulated by the primary dealers, that jumping on the train now is too risky. When Goldman said buy, that was my signal to sell. Once this rhetoric of oil reserves dies down, I plan on swing trading Oil long. Mahmoud is the wild card in all this. I can just hear him laughing at the US and Israel. Higher prices for Brent means more $ for Nukes. Even if the US and Europe don’t buy Iranian oil, there are a lot of others who will (China, India, etc.) And they will not be paying in $US. LOL
March 29th, 2012 at 1:25 pm
Hi Rol Lew,
Thank you very much for the site @ stockscores.com. I created few portfolio for trading and for Canadian stocks I entered “.to” @ the end . Is this the right way to enter Canadian stocks in the portfolio.
Many Thanks, Ania
March 29th, 2012 at 1:26 pm
Yes frank
I still own the lousy avl, getting on my nerves as it doesn’t want to follow suit mcp and ree, these two are better candidates, especially mcp as its one of the largest in the field
think I will be bailing on it before the end of the day and want to see how it will start rallying the 9ma was my guide but looks like it has broken below the 9ma
March 29th, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Hey, Tony:
Watch the close , you may not wish to give up yet. We shall see. Gotta run. Have fun.
Frank.
March 29th, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Tony: Flow through shares is a guaranteed price recovery, more of an incentive for investors to invest in the company, think of it as a guaranteed interest rate. BIR management has stumbled badly. They have to be sure that all this raised money will give some success in increased production. I don’t see how the the April $14 call buyers can expect to make money, which was bought today. Makes me wonder what else is going on. Get cash in place, then sell the company? Large put buys now at April $8 too.
March 29th, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Frank,
I have been in and out of AVL. I have been out for a while as I had 3.13 as a target for resistance and last sold at 3.10 I think. Funny you and Still08 should mention this as I have been monitoring also. The 2.93 area is support and it could bounce. May buy but with tight stop. Here’s my chart (kind of messy as I have been marking this one up a lot):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AVL.TO&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p40716095406&a=252816881
March 29th, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Tony,
I didn’t see your post #36. See #39 re AVL. Watch 2.89 as key support.
March 29th, 2012 at 1:55 pm
Ron/AB, gmsa, Ray-K or whomever
YEsterday I held MCP (the only rare earth co. actually in development and has earnings)
sold it when the market ran down to my entry at $32.21. Today it is doing well an out-pacing the markets. ? is, are some stocks actually able to go against a downturn, that is if this one continues for a little while. Wondering if I should buy it back.
March 29th, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Well Bradley call wsas certainly correct in some geographical areas… exactly March 16th, the slide began…. wish the prediction was more targeted !!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/european-weakness-spreads-and-accelerates
and China too. Wonder if it will spread to N.A.?
March 29th, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Ray-Kitchener,
Totally agree with you…thx for the reply.
.
Ken/AB,
re.#1.
Thx for the article 1st of all.
I hate the long term CDN govt. policies as they never planned to refine things here on our side of the border & export the finished products to Asia & even to the US. Refineries would bring lots of jobs too. Don’t get me wrong, I understand the grade difference as well as the environmental concerns.
Also sell crude to the world. Bring relief to the CDN consumers too. Most of the crude producers in the world provide refined products to their own citizens at a much lower prices. Why do we have to simply depend on the US? They want to call Oil Sands dirty then what about their thousands of coal fired power plants?
Dependency on the US (controlled mainly by powerful oil lobby) will bring misery to our Oil Sand producers, not to mention the average citizen.
March 29th, 2012 at 2:09 pm
Hi Ania,
re #35 – Stockscores fake portfolio – symbols
TSX-V stocks are V.EPO V. GXM V. ADM etc, etc
TSX stocks are T.ABX T.CNQ T.RY etc, etc
USA stocks are just their US symbol
Have fun
March 29th, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Tony , Frank,
I’ve been holding AVL as well. Can’t believe I have had the patience for this one. Should of been in and out 2 or 3 times this past week.
Anybody buying the drillers? I am on the verge of buying ESN.to and possibly PD.to
March 29th, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Tawny,
re.#41
Sorry I don’t follow the rare earth space as I am not able to understand it well, just like the 3rd & 4th derivative VIX products.
To me it’s purely speculation based & news driven binary events. No technicals can really help there consistently. So I stay away…but that’s just me.
March 29th, 2012 at 2:46 pm
canuck2004,
Have you ever invested in CEF’s. The US market has a multitude of them with monthly distributions. I just picked up a couple yielding 10%.
March 29th, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Don, re drillers – OIH looks like it is still going DOWN the last 2 weeks.
My guess is that when it, & the drillers turn around, and start
to go UP, there will be lots of time to jump aboard.
But, I know, buy low – sell high is what make you money.
Your mission, should you decide to accept it, is to
ensure that you do not buy low and sell lower.
Is there anything that I can do to put the odds a little
more in my favour?
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?OIH,PD.TO,ESN.TO,ESI.TO,TDG.TO,DO,SLB,HAL,BHI,RIG,TOT.TO,CFW.TO,|C|V25
Even using these mickey mouse charts from candle glance, it would appear
that, on average, there is a higher probability of success, by buying
when the price crosses the 20 day ma, upward, and selling when the opposite
cross occurs. Or use the 50 day.
And the AROON gives you a heads-up that the trend just changed, if this
happens to be one of your rules.
Have a look at e.g., MUX, PVG, BHI, RIG, SWN, UNG……….
Honestly, are these charts screaming Buy! Buy! Buy! ?
March 29th, 2012 at 2:55 pm
Tawny,
I don’t follow this one. The chart looks good but has near term resistance at 34.95. I don’t know if there is a specific story behind this company, if there is, it definitely can be a catalyst for the stock to buck the market trend. Having said that, all of the rare earths are holding up well today so far. The market direction is not clear right now so I am trading ranges and not making long term bets at this time.
March 29th, 2012 at 2:56 pm
Wayne,
If you can, wondering if have any reply to this please…
——————————————-
gmsa Says:
March 23rd, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Wayne,
You wrote about ‘Island Reversal’ yesterday. I’ve seen it often working fine with Commodities. Haven’t observed if the same works fine with stocks, one stock that I keep watching for that is AAPL and darn, nothing works with that.
Does Peter Brandt -you mentioned in yesterday’s post- say anything about this pattern where or when it works & where/when it doesn’t?
Will appreciate if you could shed some light on it pl.
Thx.
March 29th, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Ana, Ray, Oilers
Missed all the excitment, am just back at my desk now seeing the oil damage – holy toledo! I am thanking my lucky stars for my stop. Need to assess next move…
March 29th, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Tawny re:41 MCP
I have a position in NEM.TO which MCP has offered to buy. It is a lousey deal for NEM and a great deal for MCP. Rumour is the combined company is very attractive as a takeout candidate. MCP shares were at $26 when the deal was announced, since rising to the current $33.
March 29th, 2012 at 3:05 pm
gmsa,
I haven’t traded stock in a long time. But, I have seen it occur.
No, Peter doesn’t mention it. He trades off break out patterns, continuation patterns, and trend lines.
The pattern is a gap up over the previous close – then a collapse, or run – up on huge volume. Very often signals a trend change. The size of the bar is very noticeable. You can’t miss it – that’s why they call it an “island”.
March 29th, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Wayne
Hi. Haven’t seen you around for awhile, but then I haven’t been here much myself.
Could you please share what CEFs you bought in to. Confession – not sure what CEF in US stands for? Like that yield though.
March 29th, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Rol Lew,
Thanks for your input. The charts say it all. Have to continue to remember what the mission is and not get in too early. Do not want to self destruct.
Your comments are much appreciated.
March 29th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Hello everyone,
Exciting day again today. We showever eem to be recovering from our earlier losses. I am trying to see where we are going from here after three days on the downside. I have been focusing on tax reporting unfortunately today. So, I do not feel entirely up to date to make an informed decision. It looks like Europe is rocking the boat again. I would like to hedge before day end if we continue to slide.
March 29th, 2012 at 3:30 pm
gmsa, Ron/AB and Don/to
Thank you all for comments re MCP and rare earth sotcks… appreciated.
March 29th, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Tawny,
Closed end funds. DEX, EAD.
March 29th, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Wanyne,
Thx for the reply. I’ve seen it working and have used it to make money as well.
On the side note, XLY didnot break its back this time as well. 100hr sma on hourly chart has been the support since mid-dec.
March 29th, 2012 at 3:37 pm
don f,
yes we could played this one just shy 15cents/day not to be too greedy since, buy it at 2.89 and sell at 3.01 want to be sure you get filled everytime.
March 29th, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Wayne,
Thank you. I will do my own D.D. – but if you bought in, they must be good…. now how’s is that for high regard.
March 29th, 2012 at 3:46 pm
re.#59
Sorry for the typo there…meant for Wayne.
And I thought by CEF you meant that gold fund, yielding 10%?!! Thx for mentioning those two products.
March 29th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
don/to
in the past I found through an intesive search if a company made a deal to buy a company they usually took a 5-15% beating and then simply recovered from there(this on the basis they didn’t overpay) ABT was the first I noticed the pattern. they bought back in my early trading days an company focusing on eye care abt dropped from near 50$ to 45$ and then simply came back for share price to end up a few months later to 55$.
then there are companies that pay way to much like pfizer,and got obliterated where they had to cut all their expenses to be able to swallow its competition.
mcp is like abt take a little hit and then move on…
March 29th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Whiteside of Uptrend looking at how to Profit from Market FEar
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AFKHCmYcy-8
He is looking at buy volatility – discussion on the products… and he is looking to buy now – worth listening to after market close.
March 29th, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Tony,
Right on!!
March 29th, 2012 at 3:50 pm
gmsa
RE your post on CEF – first thing that came to my mind too… but know they don’t have yield…. so I was curious.
March 29th, 2012 at 3:59 pm
Wayne, re: CEF’s
Not sure if Canuck is off for the day but I have a number of CEF’s in
my portfolio. There are some very solid ones out there with good yields
that have done very well over the past couple years. I particularly
like FSS (managed by front street) – pays only 5% but is low volatility
and chugs upward in all markets. Only problem is it is now quite a bit
above NAV compared to when I got in.
Here’s the globeinvestor closed end fund report.
http://globefunddb.theglobeandmail.com/gishome/plsql/gis.show_closed_end_rep
Good to check out discount to NAV before deciding. Of course, there are some that look
good like CGI (- 26% to NAV) but you have to watch bid/ask spread and liquidity issues.
Also, MER’s can be high. But you can find some real gems to hold for the long haul.
There are a ton of U.S. CEF’s in all different sectors.
Which CEFs have you been looking at?
March 29th, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Wayne, oh I see you already answered my last question (to Tawny).
March 29th, 2012 at 4:03 pm
hey Tony re:#63
I agree with you and thats what ticks me off with this one. MCP agreed to the takeover on March 8 and their share price at the time was $26. After the announcement of the takeover you would expect the MCP share price to drop but what happened?, it popped 20% that day!. And it has continued a steady rise ever since, closing today over $34 !!
So I think the market recognizes a mis-priced sale by NEM.
The deal is $8.05 cash plus 0.122 shares of MCP so at least us poor NEM shareholders might get a bit of the MCP lift, all things equal. I am hoping/expecting a better offer for NEM once the offering document is out.
March 29th, 2012 at 4:13 pm
CEF (central fund of canada) actually is a CEF (closed-end fund) but only pays
a .1% dividend, and is just a play on the price gold and silver.
March 29th, 2012 at 4:16 pm
For U.S. CEF’s, EXG looks good, with 12.8% dividend.
March 29th, 2012 at 4:22 pm
David,
I manage a fund for my local church and as such, do not “trade” the funds, but look for yield.
We have a number of them that have provided a nice income (cuts down on the need to hold rummage sales etc..) – paid the heat and hydro bill this winter.
I have a screen that analyzes each fund – necessity to have ROC (return of capital) and look for a reasonable discount to NAV. I’ll post it at the end of the message.
DEX is trading at a 2.60 % premium, EAD – 6.20 %. The EAD is a Wells Fargo managed product. I actually know the manager – met him when I was in Washington (state) so I have no problem with that.
I am looking at several others (we received an endowment last month), so I need to put the money to work. HIX, CSP (15.5% discount – 9.70% yield – monthly distribution).
The CEF market is still little known down here – but there are several sites that offer analysis (Morningstar is also a good one). The yanks fiercely guard against hanky panky and you can find out rather quickly if there is something amiss.
I normally look for a minimum of daily volume of 100,000 shares to ensure liquidity.
A very interesting market.
I picked this up from another organization that doesn’t need to do any fundraising activities. Almost 75% of their annual budget is covered by the dividends. Very successful operation – and a shrewd manager.
He has a sophisticated model for stops and entries. Think that the church is going to make him a saint in appreciation of how well he has handled the funds. As he told me once ” It’s not all up to God, it’s up to the S & P”!! LOL
Here’s the site:
http://www.cefconnect.com/Default.aspx
Best!
March 29th, 2012 at 4:34 pm
David,
Thanks for the tip. Nice divvy and exceptional MER.
Looks like it’s headed back down to 8.40 on the chart. I’ll put it on my screen.
Thanks!
March 29th, 2012 at 4:41 pm
AVL, MCP and REE
REE has been playing cats and mouse with 150MA, but playing 6% a day with it.
MCP has been catching up to the 150MA by breaking above it this morning.
AVL the last man standing to break above the 150MA (mentioned to ron/ab) if it breaks above 150 watch out as it could be an easy double.
now can tomorrow be the day that it goes to heaven stock???
ok through options
mcp april calling 40$
ree april calling 9$
avl april calling nothing.
will change and get some ree best upside potential even if i should get shy of 9$ its better then waiting eternally for this one to call back
feel like a woman waiting for a guy to call back
March 29th, 2012 at 4:43 pm
David,
This is from Barron’s regarding yield.
http://online.barrons.com/article/SB50001424052970203793504576060212450441764.html
March 29th, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Re US CEFs
If you are a Canadian looking at these don’t forget about IRS withholding tax.
March 29th, 2012 at 4:58 pm
don/to
Re MCP – In all fairness, this stock rose (along with other rare earth stocks) from March 29, 2011 from $59.65 to $77.54 May 23/11. This is not to say the pending deal may be affecting the stock, but it seems like it is a seasonal play as well….
March 29th, 2012 at 5:03 pm
Wayne
I am listening to Brian Heyliger – trading webinar.
March 29th, 2012 at 5:42 pm
Wayne,
Thx for info re: distributions. Morningstar rates CEF’s (gold, silver etc.)
based on sustainability of distributions. Worth looking at.
March 29th, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Tawny,
Did you get my ‘e’ regarding Heyliger?
March 29th, 2012 at 6:36 pm
Hi Rol Lew,
Re: #44
Thank you. I started paper trading and based on my picks I would have lost over $1,000 within 2 days. Have a great evening, Ania
March 29th, 2012 at 8:47 pm
Re: NEM
Wondering what is going on. I held quite a bit of it, sold for 11.03 on the take out news. Was disappointed with the price but figured, “oh well…”. Notice it is up quite a bit today. Are people thinking the eventual price is going to be higher, or is it because the MCP price has been climbing and part of the deal was for MCP shares?
It’s just kind of interesting because you don’t usually see the taken out stock climbing that much post-take out.
March 29th, 2012 at 9:38 pm
Hi Neil
re:#82 NEM
Remember Benj Gallager rule ?, ” never sell a takeover candidate too soon”
March 29th, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Hi Neil
re:#82 NEM
Remember Benj Gallager rule ?, ” never sell a takeover candidate too soon”
March 29th, 2012 at 10:32 pm
Ania,
just curious to know what were your picks to have lost 1K in 2 days…
March 30th, 2012 at 1:20 am
Still08
#13
Thank you for this comment, as for some reason I was rattled today by the market. I did not find it easy to trade today for some reason.