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Interesting Charts
Commodity and commodity equity prices responded strongly yesterday to the higher than expected China Purchasing Managers Index.
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GlobeAndMail.com Headline
Headline reads, “Corporate earnings outlook points to U.S. recession”. Following is a link to the report:
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Why, when and how QE 3 is coming”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/02/why-when-and-how-qe3-is-coming/
Tech Talk’s Weekly ETF Column
(Published yesterday afternoon at www.globeandmail.com)
Headline reads, “Time to take profits in the Industrial sector”. Following is a link to the report:
Following is full text:
An Update on the Industrial Sector
This column recommended accumulation of Exchange Traded Funds in the Industrial sector on October 11th for a seasonal trade lasting until Spring. Since then, the S&P Industrial Index has gained 23.9 per cent. What should holders of Exchange Traded Funds and related equities in the sector do now?
The industrial sector includes a wide variety of subsectors including industrial conglomerates, aerospace & defense, machinery, air freight & airlines, road & rail, electrical equipment, construction and engineering and building products. Investors can choose between 24 ETFs that track the sector or its subsectors. Largest holdings in the S&P Industrial Index are General Electric, United Parcel Services, United Technologies, Caterpillar, MMM, Boeing, Union Pacific, Honeywell, Cummins and Emerson Electric.
The industrials sector has a period of seasonal strength from October 9th to May 31st. Average return per period during the past 20 periods was 15.0 per cent. The current period has recorded significantly higher than average returns through actively traded Exchange Traded Funds. Excluding dividend distributions, the Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI $37.42) has gained 21.0 per cent, the Vanguard Industrial Index Fund (VIS $69.54) has advanced 20.0 per cent, iShares on the Dow Jones Transportation Average (IYT $93.69) gained 15.5 per cent, the Dow Jones US Aerospace & Defense Fund (ITA $67.13) gained 17.4 per cent and Market Vectors Environmental Services ETF added 14.7 per cent.
On the charts, the S&P Industrials Index has a positive, but deteriorating technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The Index trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. However, strength relative to the S&P 500 turned negative at the end of January and short term momentum indicators started to roll over from overbought levels last week. The Index at 323.52 currently has resistance at 329.29. In addition, several key stocks in the sector including United Technologies, Caterpillar and Boeing broke below technical support levels last week.
The sector is vulnerable to news from first quarter earnings report when they begin to appear next week. General Electric, United Parcel Services, United Technologies and Caterpillar are scheduled to report modest earnings gains on a year-over-year basis while MMM, Boeing and Honeywell are expected to report modest declines. Of greater concern, second quarter earnings guidance released with first quarter reports could be revised lower by several key companies in the sector. Most companies in the sector realize more than half to their earnings from operations outside of the United States. Currency translation into U.S. Dollars at a time when the U.S. Dollar Index is high relative to the same period last year will significantly dampen earnings expectations in the second quarter.
Preferred strategy is to take seasonal profits on Industrial sector Exchange Traded Funds and related equities at current or higher prices.
Don Vialoux is the author of free daily reports on equity markets, sectors,
commodities and Exchange Traded Funds. . Daily reports are
available at http://www.timingthemarket.ca/. He is also a research analyst for
Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are his
personal views although they may be reflected in positions or transactions
in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management.
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC April 2nd 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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April 3rd, 2012 at 9:48 am
found this article this morning in my inbox. Finding a Productive Interval to Trade
took the most relevant parts of it.
-As discussed in part one of this series, your trading success depends on both choosing a productive interval to trade, and on recognizing when an interval is, or has become, unproductive.
In choosing an interval to trade, it is important to be as flexible as possible
My process is simple. I look for a chart that has been productive in the past, and I trade it going forward as long as it is productive. If I lose a trade I do a quick re-evaluation.
- Just because a chart may show a winning signal, it does not mean it is a good chart to trade.
- If you are swing trading daily charts, beware of charts with a lot of gaps between the close of one day and the opening of the next. Those gaps indicate a news-driven chart that can defy technical analysis. They can kill you!!
this is a good way of thinking
its not because we had a 4/9 cross on a 5 min chart that it means we are going higher reason why you need all your tools, and to look at a bigger time frame to reevaluate if your decision is good, if your at a resistance on a daily chart and get a 4/9 on a 5 min chart it doesn’t mean the stock will head higher.
April 3rd, 2012 at 9:51 am
Hi CJ and others. Canaccord has put CNQ on its Focus List as a BUY with a $50 target.
April 3rd, 2012 at 9:59 am
Michael #2
Hope some listen to Canaccord – I would be delighted if it reached $40!!!
Any hope out there for TCW.TO ???? Underwater more than 2K on that one.
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:15 am
Tony,
NTR
Sorry to read about your son…may I suggest strongly that if your son has been on antibiotics, that you build back his immune system (in his gut flora = ~ 70 % or more of our immune system).
The antibiotics kill all bugs – the good with the bad and this leaves us prone to other (nasty) problems over time. You can use a child’s probiotic (ask at a quality health food store) or use Bio-k a product with billions of live bacteria (just need a ¼ bottle a day and maybe less depending on your child’s age).
Finally there a handful of foods that also provide a good dose of probiotics (miso, kefir, kombucha, fermented veggies such as quality sauerkraut) BUT the easiest is good quality yogurt with live cultures or the Bio-k.
If your son cannot have dairy, there are non-dairy forms of the Bio-k and Nancy’s brand does a soy yogurt with cultures…
It is changing slowly, but most GPs are not informed in this area so I thought I would share from my experience with lots and lots of related family issues with gut flora.
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:18 am
Tony,
correction:
should read: (our gut flora = ~ 70%…) not (in his gut flora = …)
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:23 am
riptor, Sky
thx for the advice,
read both your notes.
hasn’t taken any meds in more than a month…
but still have been giving him some yogurt every morning.
riptor I am all ears send me an email at starwind1973@ gmail
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:24 am
Tony:
Good morning. Hope all is well. I’ve been having a rough time of it. A little time today to check some stuff. I hope your son is doing better. You may wish to look into alternative health. Some children that are often sich and use antibiotics too frequently end up with weak immune systems later. Then the antibiotics no longer work. All the best.
Frank.
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:26 am
CJ, Tony,
Thx for the websites & alanysis yesterday.
I was just looking for a justification (excuse?)
to be long BHI as a swing.
Found none yet, just as with the
other drillers.
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:28 am
Hi CJ. All the oil services have been trading poorly. I hope that there’s hope…I just bought some more today.
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:31 am
MCP: I don’t recall who was talking about this stock, but in my eyes it does look better than the others I have seen such as REE and AVL. All may be good for a swing trade as long as you have a stop. Have a look at my chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=MCP&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p26337351697&a=262788451
Have fun! Frank.
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:40 am
Frank
AVL, MCP and REE
I was saying ree and mcp are better bets then AVL. if they move by 10% in avl your lucky you will make up 5%, MCP seems to have gotten a bargain buying up neo materials.
as price spiked higher on the buy.
I prefer MCP to its competition.
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:42 am
Frank
why rsi 16? is it better then 14 and 21?
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:48 am
KC
cgx
with this year block busters (usually 3-4) this year 6 if titanic makes a big splash on the screen(young leo will have more then one teenager crying )
usually in july there is a drop of 10 to 20% so I would probably take my money and invest it all there.
If you want to buy it now 18MA seems to be support for the time being(price tends to go a little below its MAs so unless price opens and closes below 18MA stick with it),
indicators are on a buy plus the 5% dividend has a nice touch to it.
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:48 am
KC
cgx
with this year block busters (usually 3-4) this year 6 if titanic makes a big splash on the screen(young leo will have more then one teenager crying )
usually in july there is a drop of 10 to 20% so I would probably take my money and invest it all there.
If you want to buy it now 18MA seems to be support for the time being(price tends to go a little below its MAs so unless price opens and closes below 18MA stick with it),
indicators are on a buy plus the 5% dividend has a nice touch to it.
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:04 am
Tony:
I use different indicators. I have experimented over the years. You know I hate daytrading as I can’t take all the whipsaws and potential to get stopped out prematurely. The RSI 16 works a little smoother than 14. However, different stocks may work better with different indicators. Here’s a funny one. Pull up a monthly Gold chart and you will see that since 2002, the RSI moved above 50 line. Gold was about $300 at the time. It has remained above the 50 ever since. So if you were a boring long term investor you have have bought some bullion or coins and now be up about 500%. Most people sitting on mutual funds are still losing money since 2000. Wow!
Sorry I got carried away. Anyway, I like to use indicators that are slightly different than everyone else, smoother.
Frank.
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:14 am
CJ/Michael
I also hold TCW.to, bought years ago before I learned some TA on TDW’s recommendation. it was a big mistake and one of the reasons I don’t listen to the analysts, or read newsletters. I do hope it does turn around, but from what I can see now, that might not happen for awhile. When the market started it’s upturn in Oct, tcw.to starting going down and has kept hitting new lows along the way. I wouldn’t be a buyer now but I do hope you have picked a bottom here Michael and can make a few dollars in the next few days/weeks. is there any beach in AZ?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TCW.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75582632691&a=226717973
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:23 am
frank
compare your RSI 16 to my MACD 6,10,4 and they are almost identical.
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:29 am
Good Morning All,
Is anyone following CNQ.TO? Does it seem like a good short at around $34 ? Short term Stochastics seem positive, however 9 amd 18MAs still trending downward. Appreciate your comments.
Thanks,
KC
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:30 am
Tony,
Thanks for your comments on CGX, much appreciated.
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:31 am
Tony: That’s interesting. There’s a trader I know that uses a MACD 20,43,7. He says that once a trade is going his way, this keeps him in for a long time, sometimes taking advantage of stocks that go up or down for 1 year or more. Or shorting if it looks weak. Very interesting.
Frank.
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:46 am
Frank
I took a peek under the hood of your MACD(20,43,7)
and I don’t now how you can time the best entries or exits, I would be to scared of exiting just before it turns positive around.
I was looking at it on a daily chart, weekly chart and even a monthly seems the only way to pick your winners with these parameters would be only using MACD H,
the only way the MACD MA are successful is on momentum stocks like APPL
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:47 am
Hi Tony,
Thanks for the idea on the weekend post #94. I have printed. Just to mention I tried that last year with BA-T & Allied properties + other when I had time. I will try & incorporate in my strategy. In the meantime I end up writing covered call on my holdings.
I would appreciate if you come up with trading stock & let us know. For now am going to look at cco-t & would apprecite your comments when you have time.
CJ
I believe you hold POT. Yesterday Don V mentioned JJG was up & I learnt last year from moneyshow & reading here stocks like POT follow JJG. Don V also mentioned about CNQ ( reduce holdings at 36). I hold both + TCW & am underwater.
Slava (& those who look to shorting CP)
I hope you r enjoying your vacation.
Just writing from my memory: Last year I owned CNR ( 100 shares) from oct 2010 i blv & kept writing covered call till it was called away. Then Don V shorted transport ( IYT ,I blv in HAC) & CNR went down. Today Globe & Mail article saying time to take profits from industrial sector ( sounds like dejavu to me) it might be time to look at shorting stocks like CP. Just my 2 cents. NB: I do NOT short & have no intention of doing so. Maybe Tony or others who short or have more knowledge can add to this
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:52 am
Doubled up on TRANSGLOBE APARTMENT REIT in margin account. Reasonably low today, good yield, good uptrend, and great margin rate. Part of my core.
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:53 am
Tony:
This guy uses that MACD only later. It is not a buy signal. As long as the histogram stays positive, he stays in. That has allowed him to catch huge moves and keep the stock often for years. It is terrible as a buy signal or short term.
Frank.
April 3rd, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Muntazir
FYI I don’t short stocks. against my policy, of I don’t believe in a story I stay out.
April 3rd, 2012 at 12:43 pm
Frank
that explains more,so probably uses a smaller macd, and then when is larger triggers positive he stays in as long as nothing changes.
April 3rd, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Tony & those who are interested in options during earnings season
Visit CBOE.COM & watch video for “strategy of the week”by Peter Lusk of 04/02/12. Talks about volatility affecting options pricing. Un fortunately do not how to link the video
April 3rd, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Hi mick/nv. I agree that it might not be the best timing/technicals on TCW, but the fundamentals are good and the oil services could soon turn around. With some stocks, I don’t have to find the bottoms.
As for beachfront property in AZ, are you looking for some?! Oddly enough, there are canals here and its often advertised as “waterfront”.
April 3rd, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Canuck 2004,
Are you getting back in BBD.B or you are doubtful this uptrend has legs? It is behaving well on a down day. I am still in at $4.17.
TCK.B also seems to behave better of late. Could I have your take on that one if you have some time?
Tony,
Would you consider TCK.B as a good bet right now for a potential upside to $39. over the short term? It is retracing some of its earlier loss and it has been up over the last few days.
April 3rd, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Hi Canuck2004. As I enjoy Arizona’s best coffee (50 cents at that!), what’s your take on Pengrowth? Awesome dividend but not sure if its sustainable. Do you think that they will have to issue some shares for their latest acquisition? Thanks.
April 3rd, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Bonjour Martine,
my note pn tck/us says it all as long as as tck is confronted with the 150MA as resistance don’t give to much leg to it.
Yesterday tck hit 150MA, and retreated
April 3rd, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Michael,
I was wondering if you are still invested in HGU. I decided to sell at 10.24 yesterday as the up trend did not seem to get confirmed, even if most gold stocks are looking good right now. I bought some back at $9.96, probably too early, but we should get a turnaround at some point.
I sold some SLW yesterday too at $33.90 for $1 per share profit. I bought them at $33.30 back earlier today. Again, I might be too early, but I find silver stocks have been behaving better than gold stocks over the last few days.
AS for CNQ, I decided to give it some time as it does not seem to turn around. The stock has been weak over the past two months. I am screening other oil stocks to play the seasonal play if it has some legs over the next few weeks. It looked promising yesterday, but no so good today.
April 3rd, 2012 at 1:21 pm
Salut Martine. Yep, still in HGU, but just have a small position. I mentioned yesterday to Ron/AB that I’m rethinking the precious metals area. It seems that it’s one day up, one day down. So like most “H” products, HGU probably shouldn’t be held for a long time until the seasonality kicks in around the summer.
April 3rd, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Martine
follow up,
look at how indicators on tck are trending: higher lows this is exactly what made me move back in december on slf, maybe you we will retest the low of 33-34 and it would be a good opportunity to move in to tck.
April 3rd, 2012 at 1:34 pm
Hi all. Before I leave my new favourite AZ coffee shop, what’s down with dim RIM? Thanks.
April 3rd, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Merci Tony. RE TCK.B, I’ll then stay away from it for now. It will probably get much cheaper in a couple of months. The overall trend is down.
By the way, what are you looking at right now? I bought some SLW (so far, so good) and HGU (more as a trade, but may keep over the next little while). I am still hesitant about gold stocks, but OSK looks good as an individual pick. I am also looking at G.TO and YRI.TO. Oil service providers are cheap, but they are struggling. It is still hard to tell if oil service providers and oil companies will rally for good. Still on the sideline for now, but keeping an eye on them.
The markets seem to indicate they will roll over soon. I therefore prefer to be careful. There might still be some upside over the next two-three weeks.
April 3rd, 2012 at 1:37 pm
Michael
RIM
M-X
there are some trades going on on the 10 and 11 strike calls,
cboe
there are selling off rimm calls and buying the puts.
April 3rd, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Michael
Where are you located in Phoenix? How often do you travel there? Do you own your own place?
April 3rd, 2012 at 1:47 pm
Tony,
RE. TCK.B Noted.
I wish I would have moved on SLF.TO as it was one I was looking to buy. Too bad. Good job on that one. With markets correcting, I expect it will get cheaper. If I can buy it around $20, it would be a good price. It seems to be loosing steem right now. MACD is coming down even if price is still going up.
April 3rd, 2012 at 1:47 pm
Canuck2004: Thanks for your disclosure on TGA.un. I would never have found it, and it does look good; bought a sample to watch.
April 3rd, 2012 at 1:55 pm
Martine
yri.to and g.to
yri or the US auy
not so long ago there was some trades on the option front going for yri at 17.5 and 20 and but time line was towards the august september to late in the year so for the time being you buy th yri when auy hits 200MA and sell it if it breaks below 200MA or hold on if it moves to 18-19 you simply sell it off.
and wait for the pullback towards 200MA auy plays just like that.
g.to
simply a nasty chart to look at.
has changed since I was cnvinced it was a better trade then abx.
April 3rd, 2012 at 2:10 pm
Martine
Almost all the charts look almost the same to me up one day down one day.
only some nke, mcd, ua look good for the time being but it doesnt mean they are screaming buy if you didn’t buy;
April 3rd, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Tony,
Oups! I am getting killed on HGU.To I forgot about the Fed’s minutes. Down 0.46. I don’t know what to do now.
April 3rd, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Thar she blow!
GLD double bottom at 150? .. maybe
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61111018774
At least I should be able to add some CEF.A at a discount.
April 3rd, 2012 at 2:13 pm
I may as well take the blunt and wait for the markets to settle down. It does not take much to get hammered.
April 3rd, 2012 at 2:22 pm
Tony
Could you please do an analysis on VNR.TO
Thanks
April 3rd, 2012 at 2:23 pm
Martine
hgd.to looks a lot better then hgu.to
think the best thing to do when buying these etfs is buy both the 1st that breaks below 6% is a gonner, and buy with the left over the rest of the performing one.
April 3rd, 2012 at 2:29 pm
#29-Martine
BBD.B nope, not until it breaks out of this range….4.00-4.30. Don’t like the looks of the chart anyway…looks like it wants to trend lower…especially on weekly. But keeping an eye on it….
TCK.B don’t own it and don’t like the chart…trending lower…China slowdown will not help this guy…
I don’t see anything worth trading on TSX right now…US markets way better…and place to be.
April 3rd, 2012 at 2:36 pm
#30-Michael
I go down to Scottsdale AZ every year… can’t this year as I am on medical leave (I’d get fired). Next year I’ll be retired… we like to go for breakfast at the Breakfast Club near Fashion Square Mall in Old Town. Great food, fresh and I like the attractive servers….lol…enjoy the sunshine, it’s raining again in Richmond BC.
Pengrowth is fine, I own it in my RRSP (and NAE, so I’ll have more Pengrowth soon). The aquisition strengthens the yield. Like anything else, don’t go overboard, 5% hold max, I prefer 2.5 and own 2.5% of any other name in the same sector. I like to buy and hold in baskets of names. That way one can’t get hurt no matter what happens.
April 3rd, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Tony,
This morning, HGU.TO looked much better than HGD.TO. I lost so much money trading HGU/HGD. It looked relatively safe st that price. Markets always overreact. To sell HGU now does not make much sense but it can keep going down. Gold could go back down to $1550 easily. My timing seems to be always off. I forgot about the Fed’s minutes this morning. Otherwise, I would not have bought HGU and SLW. I would have waited to see what they were saying. To hedge now with HGD could make me undewater even more as tomorrow the markets can reverse. Maybe not. I should have stayed out entirely.
April 3rd, 2012 at 2:38 pm
#40-dougp
I have talked about this one for some time… I own it my RRSP and my Margin account. It is stable and has a good yield…residential REITS are the most stable of all REITs. I can get a bit mmore than 70 cents margin loan on every dollar that I own in this name…nice core name.
April 3rd, 2012 at 2:41 pm
ric
vnr.to
didn’t i comment not so long ago on vnr?
15.01 looks like a good suppport but 15.54(100MA) looks like a good resistance level
so at 15.3 your at a cross road I would wait to see where price heads before stepping in…if above 15.54 go long if below 15.01 i would stay away.
April 3rd, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Well got to go out and buy a new washer and dryer, the old dryer packed it in. The dishwasher motor is dying as well… got to be careful not to spend too much money as I may be selling the house this year…. BUT if we don’t move right away, don’t want to get stuck with a piece of junk either. Looking for good quality, that looks nice, matching the others, and on sale….lol…as cheap as possible… no cadillacs this time around.
Just finished doing full renos on 2 bathrooms…now changing all interior doors. Doing all the work myself, except for tile setting…got a pro for that…ceramic tile is expensive and it has to look great. Again not cadillac, just very good quality stuff as bought cheap as possible. My brother was a builder here so I know some of his suppliers so can get great material at contractor prices. Looks very good so far.
Good chance if we sell, they’ll just tear it down anyway to build another 7k sqft mansion…but it will help the sale if it looks nice, new and modern. Not everybody can afford or want those big mansions….got to appeal to multiple types of buyers.
April 3rd, 2012 at 2:49 pm
Martine
Take a breather, first half hour after the chairman speaks is always the know it all that think market will go in one direction and then the big boys come in.
saw it every so often that I hated his speeches just because of the wild swings.
trading hgu, hgd the way I mentionned, is the safest way not to lose money on a trade.
if hgd moves up by 6% hgu should move down by 6%, holding both in equal amount you should have zero gains zero loss, you sell your loser and buy into your winner should easily make up an extra 10% if not more on the second half of your money combine them both and you should easily get 12%
look at both charts hgd moved from 7.7 to 10.9, while hgu went from 13.6 to 9.9 having invested 5K in each you should be close to 0 % loss.
April 3rd, 2012 at 2:53 pm
Martine
Ok I am wrong if you held 5K ob both at the prices indicated you would have made 700.
not a bad return holding both.
April 3rd, 2012 at 2:56 pm
You crazy canuck
don’t have to go for the extra expensive models but at least go mid range.
and please no crapy fridgidaire look good but stink in performance.
April 3rd, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Tony,
I am going to let it settle down. I just find it too bad. When I sold HGU and SLW, it was well executed yesterday. Today, I get smacked in no time. Silly mistake. I don’t expect to have winners at all time, but this kind of mistakes could have been prevented. I know better. I am just mad at myself.
April 3rd, 2012 at 3:02 pm
tony
So, how do we know this is a one day pull back, or the start of the correction as per Don v.? Please bring out6 your crystal ball!
Also re Insane trader, I have seen the purchase in odd hours like at 2 in the morning??
This isn’t possible is it? If not, maybe this is all paper trading.
I agree with your comment from yesterday – it doesn’t matter how often you are right – bottom line is earnings! Check out CrispyCrunch (I think he used to post years ago on the old Tech Talk Blog – he is up over 300% for month.
April 3rd, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Hi Ric. My condo is mid-town Phoenix. Well, sort of my condo for the next day…I just sold it! I bought last April and am flipping it…and yes, I made some money! I’ve been down here three times in the last 5 months; a great getaway spot.
April 3rd, 2012 at 3:04 pm
Good Call Tech Talk!
http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/09/image33.png
April 3rd, 2012 at 3:17 pm
Tawny
we canadians get the S…. as we are unimportant to the economy of the world from our bankers perspective, she is probably trading off a broker that allows her to trade 24hr a day.
CCrunch 300% of what gains? only way to make 300% is through options…
think of it if you buy ABC 50 strike price at 1$ and if it has all the right ingredients (gamma, delta and what other greek letter you can put at it) and the trade goes in your direction you can double your money. If on the contrary you are wrong and the option goes against you, your options will be worthless.
now if you have 1 contract means you should have 100 shares, because if you are called you will owe someone 100 shares of ABC playing with more contract will jeapordize your trading imagine you sell a 55$ call but don’t own the shares you will have to buy them at 55 so the buyer of your options will take them off of your hands. (not necessarily but imagine they reported earnings and had a blow out quarter and price pops in after hours at 65$ you got to purchase 65$ stock that you sold at 55$ so all your gains will be worthless.)
April 3rd, 2012 at 3:26 pm
tawny
I am not saying that stock market will be up starting tomorrow, just saying market could retrace the high.
if you look at the spx on a 5min chart today everytime price hit the 50MA it pulled back.
gld was bouncing off the 200MA today until 1.30 where price simply broke below this was your warning sign on gld. to get out.
April 3rd, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Tawny
1st post of this morning explains time frame don’t always work on a stock…
recall a few weeks ago you asked on the premiss of a 4/9 cross if a 5min chart was a good deal and if I am correct the 4/9 didnt work on that stock. not sure if it wasnt HVU
April 3rd, 2012 at 3:31 pm
tony and Tawny, (Sounds like flora and fauna!)
Maybe your trader has an account in the FTSE or DAX.
April 3rd, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Ana
don’t know where she’s from, and her broker, so yes this is other reasons why she could be up at 3am putting in trades.
April 3rd, 2012 at 3:51 pm
BTW I did say thx after a few posted an answer back to me on oil vs gasoline.
same goes to the rest of you…
April 3rd, 2012 at 3:59 pm
tony
Re CrispyCrunch – all traders are listed – trades long and short – I don’t see options.
I traded my first option today – would have made $300. (10%) on a quick trade, but commissions killed me: in and out total comm = $245. ($1.25 / trade + $9.95 in and out). WOW there are big charges on options.
April 3rd, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Thanks Tony on VNR comment.
April 3rd, 2012 at 4:18 pm
Hi Tony,
Could you look at PD.to for me. Should we not get a bounce off $9.50?
April 3rd, 2012 at 4:48 pm
Tawny,
How many contracts did you trade? I think that your math is a bit out. I’m assuming that you bot 10 contracts? So, you made $ 255.00!!
What option did you buy?
April 3rd, 2012 at 4:49 pm
Hi Rami/AB,
I hope you’re not still holding SNDK at your over $50 purchase from February. I had written to both you and Lin when you both bought it that it was in a trading range of between $47 to $51 (give or take) until its next reporting date (due to having missed earnings a couple of times in the last several quarters – including its last report from this year) (it reached a high of $51.80 after that – went above $51 just twice to get to $51.40 and then a week or so later to $51.80 – it’s been trading since then from the high $48′s to that $51 level).
It just gave a pre-announcement of their upcoming earnings and they are not going to be bringing in the revenue they had previously forecast AND are below the Street consensus too by $150 million (in revenue). Their margins are also going to be significantly less they’ve said than they previously forecast – as a result of this, the stock is down in after hours to $46.98 thus far. So, hopefully you sold it at that $51 level and are not still holding it.
Eve
April 3rd, 2012 at 5:09 pm
HI Eve,
What is your TA on PD.to, I know the drillers have not been doing real good lately but I was thinking $ 9.50 would be a good buy on this
April 3rd, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Hi Brian,
Ohh that’s an ugly looking chart for PD!! Are you sure you want to buy it?? It’s in a downtrend – so, if when it does finally go up, it has limited upside to the mid keltner which is currently at $10.45.
From looking at the weekly chart, it looks like PD could go down to around $9.10 – 20 area – this is around BOTH the bottom bollinger for the DAILY chart (at $9.24) AND the weekly chart too (at $9.18). If it goes to those price points and gets bought there, this would put stochastics on the weekly chart into oversold zone (it’s close to oversold zone right now but just not yet) – and often when a stock gets to oversold zone on stochastics on the WEEKLY chart, the stock will bounce higher from there. There’s price support too at $9.38 and at $9.48. So, at any of these points points, the stock could turn up from there.
IF the stock goes below $9, then it will most likely head to its low seen at the beginning of Oct 2011 which is at $7.98. I would expect the stock to bounce up from the $9′s rather than go below that price point. So, look for a turnaround coming very soon is my guess on this – it might go below support too of $9.38 just to get to the bottom of the bollinger at that $9.10 to 20 level – so, look for it to find a support point there – but as I said, it “could” find support too at $9.38 or $9.48 areas as there is support at those price points too. Bottom keltner on the weekly chart is at $8.40 – so, that’s a possibility too for support IF it goes below $9.
Here’s the weekly chart I’m looking at for this:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=PD.TO&p=W&b=7&g=0&id=p92616013324
Hope this helps Brian
Eve
April 3rd, 2012 at 5:58 pm
WAYNE #70
Math isn’t out by much (a little quick rounding).
Buy 90 puts @0.32 and sold at 0.35. (Comm. $1.25 x 90 contracts = $112.50 + $9.95 = $122.45 x 2 (buy / sell) = $244.90). Profit 90 contracts x .03 = $270 – $245 = $25 NET! WOW. This was a recommendation from a paid service – tell you when to buy, when to sell but not how many contracts… lots of solid successful history but the history did not show comm. costs as they never do. I can cancel as it is money back guarantee… guy checks out very well. BTW, thanks for the pissedconsumer.com site.
April 3rd, 2012 at 6:18 pm
Tony,
I haven’t had the chance to thank you for YRI.TO.
April 3rd, 2012 at 6:30 pm
Hi Tawny
Please be careful, very careful, with those options.
Honestly, you can get your sweet little face ripped
right off. Buying options are risky, as in – “you can
get your sweet little smiling face ripped right off.”
There was a survey done recently that showed the grief
suffered from losing money is much more hurtful than the
exilaration derived from “winning”.
Anyways the IB options commission are .70 per contract for premiums > 10 cents
.50 per contract for premiums between a nickel & a dime
and .25 per contract for premiums less than a nickel
So your 90 contracts, in & out, would cost you 2 * 90 * .70 with IB = $126 USD.
Not that I am advocating that kind of trading in any way, OK?….. Just saying, OK?
April 3rd, 2012 at 6:49 pm
RIM, should be serving CNBC and Gene Munster (Piper Jaffray Managing Director & Sr. Analyst) with a Statement of Claim for stating today that RIM is “is out of business.”
I do not own any RIM shares, however how can this slander of a corporation, continually be done on CNBC? The mission on CNBC is to be negative regarding RIM, from their skits to their chit chat.
April 3rd, 2012 at 6:50 pm
Tawny,
Rol Lew makes a very good point. Buying cheap options (or any options for that matter) can be very hazardous to your health. You’d be better off buying a lottery ticket. A lot of these BS sites promise mega million dollar returns – if you look closely, they trade options – I came across one that promised 80% successful trades – only if you were prepared to trade $ 5,000.00 per position.
April 3rd, 2012 at 6:52 pm
Muntazir #22 – Sorry you are sharing the pain of CNQ.to; TCW.to & POT.to with me
TCW alone cost me another $225 in my TFSA account today. What a switcheroo; Friday everything on the TSX was gaining and US was struggling, today, my $US portfolio turned green and every single CDN stock was down ??? Since I have been busy punching other peoples numbers into an accounting program – I have not yet heard what caused today’s debacle??
April 3rd, 2012 at 6:53 pm
Yes Eve, that helps lots, thanks much
April 3rd, 2012 at 7:27 pm
Muntazir and CJ
A brief reminder to you on what Tech Talk had on their site last week. I love when Don posts “What to do?”
“What to do? Ben Bernanke gave investors a bonus on Monday. Take it while you can. Investors with a time horizon of three months or less will want to protect themselves by taking profits before Easter in broadly based U.S. equity index ETFs including S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY $141.61), DJIA SPDRs (DIA $132.09) and PowerShares QQQ Trust (QQQ $68.11). Investors with a longer time horizon can hold through the period of weakness. U.S. equity markets have a history of moving higher from the end of May to the end of the year during a U.S. Presidential Election year.”
Here is the chart they are referring to:
http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/image.png
April 3rd, 2012 at 7:46 pm
Horizons ETFs Launches Canada’s First Inverse Volatility ETF – HVI
http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/949963/horizons-etfs-launches-canada-s-first-inverse-volatility-etf
Now we have something to offset our HVU addiction
April 3rd, 2012 at 7:48 pm
Hi Wayne, just in case you’re in Kingston tomorrow and want to buy me ‘fish and chips’ at Pilot house, I’m away for a day or so in TO getting the car serviced. As if that would happen huh? Haha. Hope all is well and you’re preparing to wear that new easter bonnet or cap whatever…… Hi Canuck, glad to hear you like tga.un-t if that’s the one you’re talking about. Bought some a couple of months ago when a bad news article punished the stock which they came back on defending their policies. Nice pay back. Have a good evening. Hniel/Kingston
April 3rd, 2012 at 7:54 pm
Ana #81
Saw that chart more than once – but the phrase “by taking profits before Easter” is one big joke LOL What profits????
April 3rd, 2012 at 8:07 pm
Ana,
Thanks for the reminder.
Tony,
Rim was down today. Nice call from options.
Michael,
SLW closed down on tues.Nice call
April 3rd, 2012 at 9:03 pm
Tony/Eve:
RAX did rather well today, high was 8 cents above my break even point before dropping back – Tony, from the options and Eve from your knowledge of this stock and both as to your best guess at the markets tomorrow – if TSX or DJIA will pop, I would like your advice as to what level I can expect. Cancer drivers picking us up at the ungodly hour of 8:15am
tomorrow morning, I don’t want to miss the peak if it is coming tomorrow. Your take on this would be appreciated. Thanks ever so much!
April 3rd, 2012 at 9:37 pm
Hi CJ,
RAX looks like it is heading for $55 for options expiration on April 21st (RAX doesn’t have weekly expirations – only monthly). For May, it is showing $60. So, it may not get to $60 anytime soon – BUT, if it does make a run again at above $59 to try and get to $60, then I would get out at that point (at anything over $59) as it needs to get back down to its 4 day MA which is at $58 level. So, if the markets start pulling back this week, then if you don’t get rid of RAX at above $59, then you might just be holding it all month and hoping it goes to $60 for options expiration rather than $55 where the most volume of calls and puts are showing right now for April – the next highest is at $60.
Hope this helps CJ.
eve
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:09 pm
Brian
PD.to
Indicators are negative,
resistance is the 100MA
18/50 bear cross
maybe a small(puny little W in recent days if price holds 9.40)
No I would stand on the side its not worth the risk I rather miss out on 10% then risk it at this stage.
options almost nil at present time and best case july 11th calls but its on the sell side. so I wouldn’t bother touching this one IU rather buy southgobi res which I don’t then playing this one.
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Eve #87
Thank you Eve, RAX hit over $59 today, and my breakeven point is $58.999 which is as close to $59 as one can get LOL! So you suggest I get out without profit this time and let it fall back. Will see if I can find a WIFI hotspot to monitor from WCH tomorrow or maybe just put in a limit sell. Thanks Eve, WPRT is not quite ready either so maybe I will just add to my golden arches
Had a lovely surprise dividend from Telus yesterday; that’s another one I would like to get back into – oh yes and Amazon!!! Or APPLE or Slava’s Mexican Chipotle – gee all I need is money to invest and the world would be rosy once more!
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:22 pm
Muntazir,
cco.to
don’t like the story, if Germany has its way after March 2011 earthquake, Uranium will become an endangered sector, Natgas is cheaper and Uranium power plant takes 10 years to build, after regulatory approvals. so you do the math.
the chart,
Nice 4/9/ 18/38/50 and 18/50 bear with a rebound off the 50MA to the 18MA, price is tagging along the 4 on its way down, indicators are negative. not something I would recommend here.
ccj they sold calls as low as 19$ strike price there is some put buying at 21 so I suspect price could reach
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:27 pm
better pricing then on Itrade,
I continue getting mail from them. new pricing starting in may,
Stock :25$ up to 1000 shares and 3cent/share after.
Option: 25$+1.75$ per contract ouch how can you make money with these rates better off calling a HF and tell them you will pay 5 % commission on every trade then doing it yourself.
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:38 pm
CJ
If this is RAX:NYSE, Rackspace Hosting, Inc. it is up .02% in after hour trading.
Why don’t you set up a sell limit price, so that if it does get to $59.95, it will sell while you are gone for the day?
Wishing you a very good day tomorrow.
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:48 pm
CJ
RAX
option wise I can only speak for the month of april as may and june have weird trades on them.
the calls increase by increments of 5$, and they were buying the 45 calls, 55 calls, 60 calls but selling the 65 calls, at the same time they were selling the 55 and 50$ puts.
so as soon as you see 65 in front sell out as it could turn probably to 60( may calls that were traded.
then in june here is the nice part, they were buying the 45 50 and 75 calls in between these prices we got nothing.
April 3rd, 2012 at 10:55 pm
Eve,
Have you found that options can accurately tell you where a price for a stock will go?
Unfortunately, I have not following our option guru, Tony with his instructions, as I always trade oil.
I am trading HVU as well these days, as well and am learning how it behaves. I imagine that it will make a run to at least around the 5.50 area.
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:00 pm
CJ and Eve
Eve I didn’t see Where you saw price going to 55$ as they are selling the puts which is means they are bullish on RAX.
What I see at 11pm is that they sold 65$calls so this is where I see resistance for the time being in april.
RAX chart 4MA was 57.82 and todays low 57.40 that to me is tagging the 4MA.
Indicators
W%R has been having higher lows ever since the end of february.
MACD has curled higher and current low is higher then previous low.
Pivot points March high was shy of 65 this is probably where I would sell out.
coincides with April option 65calls.
so everything is bullish for the time being on RAX
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:03 pm
Ana,
What is your outlook for Oil? My charts are suggesting a fall to the 93 – 94 area. It has just broken a trendline from last September – tried to break through 104 – but is backing off. It needs to clear 104.00 to regain upward momo. If it can’t break through, then it will head down.
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:07 pm
Hi Canuck
I was wondering if ATP.to would be a good stock for the RRSP. It pays around an 8 percent dividend. Thanks.
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Ana
No guru here Lin and Rol are the real gurus, I can only read the tables and put a target price on it.
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Hi CJ,
I am suggesting to try and sell it at over $59 – so, either at break even for you OR a bit of a gain – say around $50.35 to $50.45 (OR higher if lucky) as it will most likely try to get back up to those recent all time highs of that $59.36 and $59.43. So for tomorrow, the 4 day will be at around $58 or so (as today it’s at $57.82 BUT it will be higher tomorrow). So, RAX will either go up right from the open and later in the day come back down to try to get back to its 4 day MA of TOMORROW’s 4 day – OR it will open lower at around its 4 day MA and then move higher from there to get in its $1 gain or so. Look at stockcharts chart tomorrow morn at 931 am to see where the 4 day is showing then for RAX – and then just watch to see where it goes in the day in order to know when to sell it. It should get to over $59 BUT by how much over $59 is the unknown – but either way, you will be able to buy it back at a lower price this month and then ride it up again to that $59 to $60 level (say from around $55 or $56 buy in price).
Hope this helps CJ
Eve
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Nasty Gas players.
I see that NG is approaching my intermediate term target of $2.00. This market has been collapsing for some time now. Look for all time lows in the $ 1.70 – $ 1.80 range.
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Hi Ana,
Yes I find looking at the options on the CBOE is VERY helpful to know where a stock may go to in price. Like for yesterday for example, I saw that WPRT had most volume around $40 area (today, it’s showing the same for both puts and calls – the most volume is at that $40 price – so, it looks like for now anyway, that WPRT will be staying around that $40 price for the month of April) – things can change though each day for the weekly expiries and can change each week for the stocks that expire monthly – so, I check them daily for stocks I’m interested in – and WPRT only trades monthly options (same too with RAX) but there are many stocks that trade weekly options too! You can often see exactly where a stock will go to in p[rice based just on looking at the options for that week or month. So, yes I find them very useful. Here’s what I’m looking at for WPRT for the monthly options expiry:
http://www.cboe.com/DelayedQuote/QuoteTable.aspx
So, yes, I’d suggest getting to know how to use them for getting to know where a stock may go to in price – they don’t work 100% of the time though – like take SINA for example, it has been showing $70 for the last 2 weeks OR $65 – most interest though at $70 – but yet last week, SINA closed right AT $65!! – so weird that it closes EXACTLY at the strike price – yet it did – and it does that often for the weekly expiry – so, even though the most volume is showing at $70, it closed at its next best volume show of $65 – so, it doesn’t work 100% of the time BUT it works more times than not – plus it can give you a good idea of where a stock’s price will go to such that if it is declining say to $35 BUT you see the options are showing that month at $40, then you can feel more assured to buy it at $35 if you see the options price being pinned to $40 for that month – and that often works – not 100% though but it works around 80 to 85% of the time I’d say – so, it gives you good odds.
Hope this helps Ana
Eve
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:24 pm
Wayne
from what I can see in the chart on WTIC it doesn’t look to rosy,
9/18 bear, 4 is 3 cents shy of crossing below 50MA,
Indicators are going south with lower highs.
think its a good thing for the next time I fill up the gas tank.
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:45 pm
Hi tony,
What I am looking at for RAX is the volume levels at a strike price – and I’m looking at which price has the highest volume – and where the volume goes down by a significant amount at the next strike price, then this tells me it is less likely to get pinned to that price if the volume is MUCH lower. So for RAX, the call volume at $55 is 192 contracts – and at the $60 level, the volume is only 59 and at $50, the volume is 0. So, this tells me, it won’t get pinned to $50 for April – and that the most likely pin price will be at $55 rather than $60 due to the big difference in volume at those 2 strike prices (YOU taught me to look at that volume difference between 2 strike prices that are next to each other – and I’ve used that and it works! so, that’s how I use it too!).
Both $55 and $60 are being bought BUT the higher VOLUME at $55 is telling me, it will get pinned more than likely to that $55 price.
I’ve also noticed daily that when a stock is DOWN in PRICE, that the calls are in the red (ie being sold) and the puts are in the green (ie., being bought) – and that when a stock is UP on the day, that the calls then are in the GREEN and the puts are in the red. This occurs for the majority of the time – yes, sometimes it happens where a stock is down on the day and BOTH the calls and puts are in the RED (or UP on the day and both calls and puts are green) – BUT for the MOST part (around 90 to 95% of the time), the calls will be whatever the stock is doing that day and the puts will be the opposite of the calls – so, if a stock is down, calls will be red and puts green – and when a stock is up, calls will be green and puts red.
BUT when you see a stock UP on the day and you see green calls up to different strike prices BUT THEN see a RED call (so, call is sold at that strike price), then that tells me THAT red call strike price will be a resistance price for the stock IF it happens to go up and go higher than the strike price BEFORE the next strike price where the red calls are showing. So, for RAX for example, for today, calls at $55 and $60 were GREEN (as RAX was UP today) and at $65 strike price, the calls were being sold (red) – so IF the stock HAPPENS to get OVER $60 this month, then it won’t go any higher than $65 (for how things stand as of TODAY that is as things can be different next week or the week after too) – so, $65 for right now is showing as the resistance level for RAX for options expiration for April (that’s IF it gets over $60 which I doubt it will IF the markets sell down from here for the month as Don V. is stating what occurs in Aprils of Presidential election years AND in years that end in a “2″). YOU taught me that too
(about the resistance levels for red calls I’m meaning at strike prices above green calls – and ya, i’ve checked this out in the past couple of months and it works!)
Here’s what I’m looking at with RAX:
http://www.cboe.com/DelayedQuote/QuoteTable.aspx
Eve
April 3rd, 2012 at 11:49 pm
Tony,
There is so much Oil out there right now – storage facilities from Egypt to Japan are filled to the brim – in expectation of the Oil embargo cutbacks. Even Lybia is overstocked.
“Shipments accelerated as buyers sought to expand reserves on mounting concern that Middle East supply will be disrupted by conflict over Iran’s nuclear program. Rising stockpiles are coming at a time of slowing growth in China and a contraction in Europe, which together account for about 33 percent of demand. The global market is getting as much as 2 million barrels a day more than it needs, Saudi Arabian Oil Minister Ali al-Naimi said March 20.”
Oil prices “should” be down around the $65.00 – $ 75.00 range. But the “war” premium is holding prices at higher levels. The recent pipeline explosion in Yemen had no affect on prices.
Obama doesn’t need to release the SOR – the key is gasoline.
April 4th, 2012 at 12:02 am
PS Ana,
re HVU:
Yes, good observation Ana – it may just go to that $5.50 area (OR more) as that is the mid keltner point. It will simply depend on how much the markets sell down AND whether people start to worry the decline may be greater than expected – at that point, they will buy more puts for their stock holdings and this will drive up the VIX which in turn will drive up HVU. So, if the SPX sells down to the mid keltner and then goes up from there again (as it has done each time since February when it has sold down), then yes, HVU should go to that mid keltner area too which currently is around that $5.50 price (today, is showing as $5.47) (or more!).
eve
April 4th, 2012 at 12:09 am
PS CJ,
IF it gets above that $59.40 area tomorrow, then just let it ride and see where it goes in price – it should go either to $1 higher than TODAY’s closing price OR $1 higher from TOMORROW’s LOW price of the day (usually made at the opening OR up til 1030 am). See if it can make that $60 – I doubt it will but it might. IF it does go up tomorrow, then it should start coming down around 2 to 3 pm – so, if it goes up, you can let it ride to see where it starts to turn around in price and sell down on the day.
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 12:20 am
Eve
1st part where you have the strike price with the most volume is good when you are looking at the montreal exchange (M-X.ca) as you don’t really know if they are buying or selling as price is always positive.
for example if bmo you have vol of 50 at 65$ calls in may but 750 in vol for 40 calls yes. you are more likely to get pinned at 40 then at 65$
on the cboe, having the opportunity of seeing if the calls are highlited in green or red you can see if people are bullish and where do they become less bullish.
now if you see on either side only one color of trade being placed, they don’t know how far it will go but they now it will go far enough for the timebeing to either be in or out.(
for instance if RAX didn’t have any trades above 60$ you know 60 is an easy target but where would your resistance be only time would tell eventually you would see some option selling somewhere or buying some puts at higher price for instance they could decide to buy 65$ puts. while price moved from 32 to 59 this would signal a sell eventually at 65$.
better yet you could look at march 9th Eric Wheathly commentary as you should get links to other previous comments from him
April 4th, 2012 at 12:21 am
for example if bmo you have vol of 50 at 65$ calls in may but 750 in vol for 40 PUTS, yes you are more likely to get pinned at 40 then at 65$
there was a mistake it was not 40$ calls but puts that should have been read in comment 107.
April 4th, 2012 at 12:26 am
Ooohhhh ok Eve,
post 106 clarified my concern on RAX…
I taught you were telling CJ to get out at 60$ but instead you are giving her your 1$ a day trade.
I don’t want to see her miss out on an extra 5-6 upside potential.
sorry for butting in
April 4th, 2012 at 12:35 am
Wayne
thx for 104,
if as you said an explosion on a pipeline in Yemen had no pressure on oil price, as you said price should be moving lower.
recall 2-3 years ago hurricanes in the gulf had an impact on oil price but when Russia put an embargo on the oil sent to EU price didn’t even spike up. That was the end of that rally.
April 4th, 2012 at 12:40 am
Hi tony,
RAX won’t get to $65 anytime soon – so, CJ won’t miss out on it going up $5 or $6 from here, RAX will stay in the range of $50 to $60 between now and when the markets finally correct – maybe now?? maybe in May?? – but no, RAX won’t go to $65. At most, they’ll go to $61 (top of keltner) – BUT, I doubt they will go over $60 is my guess on it with knowing how RAX tends to behave. RAX will go down to $55/ $56 BEFORE it goes over $60 – so, that is why I am hoping CJ will sell it at over $59 so that she will then be able to buy it back at $55/ $56 and then ride it up to $60 (DEPENDING on what the markets do from here I’m meaning – if the SPX corrects, then RAX will go down – not up).
With respect to you writing this:
for example if bmo you have vol of 50 at 65$ calls in may but 750 in vol for 40 calls yes. you are more likely to get pinned at 40 then at 65$
Yes, that is what I wrote to you too in my example of RAX calls volume at the $55 strike price and $60 strike price and why I think RAX will get pinned at $55 (higher volume – MUCH higher than at $60).
re you writing this:
on the cboe, having the opportunity of seeing if the calls are highlited in green or red you can see if people are bullish and where do they become less bullish.
now if you see on either side only one color of trade being placed, they don’t know how far it will go but they now it will go far enough for the timebeing to either be in or out.
Yes exactly – that is why I wrote to you saying that as the calls for RAX at that $65 strike were RED today, this tells us that there will be price RESISTANCE at that $65 price for RAX IF it DOES happen to get OVER that $60 price where calls today were green BUT where it had much less volume there of 59 than at the $55 strike price of 192. So, yes, what you just wrote to me above, that is what I wrote to you too about that
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 12:43 am
PS tony,
I don’t ever look at the M-X exchange for options – I only ever look at the CBOE
eve
April 4th, 2012 at 1:41 am
Ana #92 – Where do you get information on after hour trading please?
Yes I would like to put a sell limit in for tomorrow, but trying to figure out at what price is my conundrum :0
Eve/Tony I will do my best to monitor RAX where I can; will be riding in a car from 8:15am until arrival at WC Hosp. then have to wait until my 11:30 appointment. Have no idea if WIFI will be available there. If not, will have to take my chances.
Thanks for sending us back to Eric’s March 9th article, the link to that site on “option interest” in relation to price increases/decreases was one I had missed; I HAD picked up on Eric’s saying that “open interest has rarely been particularly relevant to me” so wondered if it was important at all…..now I know better
I fell asleep while composing this – now I’m going to get horizontal!