ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Wednesday April 4th
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 11 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of the March ADP Private Employment report. Consensus was an increase of 213,000. Actual was 209,000.
The European Central Bank maintained its overnight lending rate at a record low 1.00%.
Monsanto added $1.28 to $83.08 after reporting higher than consensus fiscal second quarter earnings and after offering positive second half guidance.
General Electric slipped $0.30 to $19.66 after Moody’s downgraded the company’s credit rating one notch to AA3.
IBM fell $3.25 to $206.35 after Bank of America/Merrill downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral.
McDonald’s dropped $0.85 to $31.00 after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Conviction Buy to Buy. Target was reduced from $114 to $110.
Tim Hortons (THI $54.15 Cdn.) is expected to open lower after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral.
Bond holders of Yellow Media have proposed a debt-to-equity swap.
American International Group added $0.23 to $31.10 after Bernstein upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform.
Starbucks gained $0.09 to $57.00 after Goldman Sachs upgraded the stock from Neutral to Conviction Buy. Target price was raised from $49 to $66.
Technical Watch
International Business Machines (NYSE:IBM) – $206.35 fell 1.6% after Bank of America/Merrill downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral. IBM has the highest weight of the 30 stocks that are part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock closed at an all-time high yesterday. It trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since mid-January. Seasonal influences turn positive in mid-April. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock closer to its 20 day moving average at $205.17.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00111.png "clip_image001[1]")
International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE:IBM) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image218.png "clip_image002[1]")
McDonald’s (NYSE:MCD) – $98.55 fell 0.9% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Conviction Buy to Buy. Target was reduced from $114 to $110. The stock has a deteriorating technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. Resistance is at its all-time high at $101.51Short term momentum indicators are overbought. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since mid-December. Seasonal influences currently are positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to support at $95.13.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00311.png "clip_image003[1]")
McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image267.png "clip_image004[1]")
Tim Hortons, Inc. (TSE:THI) – $54.15 is expected to open lower after Goldman Sachs downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Last week the stock touched an all-time high at $54.15. The stock trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the beginning of February. Short term momentum indicators are overbought and have rolled over. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to its 50 day moving average at $51.47.
![clip_image005[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00511.png "clip_image005[1]")
Interesting Charts
Gasoline prices reached new highs again yesterday. Gasoline prices in Toronto were scheduled to increase overnight to $1.40 per litre, up more than $0.04 per liter. ‘Tis the season for gasoline prices to move higher!
Equity and bond markets came under pressure yesterday following release of the FOMC meeting minutes for March. Trader interpretation of the minutes was that the possibility of Quantitative Easing 3 has diminished. Long term Treasury bond price were notably weaker. The long term Treasury bond ETF fell below its 20 and 200 day moving averages.
European equity markets have returned to the spotlight and the picture is not looking good.
FP Trading Desk Headlines
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Loonie should climb higher if the Bank of Canada takes more hawkish tone”. Following is a link to the report:
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Risk on trade makes some big assumptions”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/03/risk-on-trade-makes-some-big-assumptions/
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Home Building Industry Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC April 3rd 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
| Sponsored By... |
|
|
Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: IBM, MCD, THI
April 4th, 2012 at 10:20 am
Eve
your last posts clarified everything,
so we were on the same page, as we both saw resistance at 65$…
and the bmo analogy should have read volume 750 for the 40$ puts strike price of.
At times we don’t post everything and we see confusion in the writings as I said you were giving your 1$ trade on RAX, as I am more of a swing trader try to limit my entries and exits and ride the momentum for a period time that lasts longer then a few hours to days.
April 4th, 2012 at 10:28 am
Ana
HVU
not sure if it was a typo, you mentionned yesterday 5.50 for HVU,
since early december HVU almost every upswings ended short of the 18MA, so for price to reach 5.50 it should break above 18MA (5.05), it does then 38MA is its next resistance.
April 4th, 2012 at 10:36 am
on a nice (??) down day like today, i just wanted to mention
the strategies archive on the cboe site
particularly this
http://www.cboe.com/Strategies/WeeklyStrategy.aspx?DIR=LCWeeklyStrat&FILE=03_19_2012_1.ascx&CreateDate=19.03.2012&Title=CBOE
April 4th, 2012 at 10:37 am
Michael:
Hope you are enjoying sunny AZ. Whats up with drillers, I bought CFW and now under water, do you see turn around soon. Also, just wondering if you would be able to say what percentage return you will be getting on your condo, if you don’t feel comfortable saying please don’t. As you know I am always looking in the US but hasn’t made up my mind. Thinking of buying brand new with long closing as an alternative to resale, most likely Florida or Virginia, any thoughts???
April 4th, 2012 at 10:41 am
and this one also – (e.g., to protect around earnings)
http://www.cboe.com/Strategies/WeeklyStrategy.aspx?DIR=LCWeeklyStrat&FILE=12_28_2011_1.ascx&CreateDate=28.12.2011&Title=CBOE
…….. but all 20 of these segments can be useful
and they do not cost a cent – you do not have to pay $5000 or 10K
to get 16 big binders from one of the gurus who come by every so often.
April 4th, 2012 at 10:54 am
Rol Lew
Thank you very much for your comments last night – much appreciated!
I am aware of risks and would not want to get my pretty face squashed!
The only thing long today in my portfolios, other that a couple of small divie positions, are bear etfs.. so in good shape today.
Could you tell me what is I.B. company?
April 4th, 2012 at 10:55 am
Hi Tony,
Well, the thing is, is that with RAX, it won’t be getting to $65 anytime soon – not in weeks anyway (it could though if it beats earnings on its next report – then at that point, it could get to that $65 level) – but CJ didn’t want to hold on to it for any long term time frame – she wanted to unload it when she could – at hopefully a profit. The problem was her buy in price was at close to the highs made in the stock (high had been $59.43 and then CJ bought it at $58.80) – and that is never good to buy at close to the highs – UNLESS you’re doing it with a stock like PCLN, CMG, AAPL, LULU as these will keep going higher – but with a stock like RAX, it will find a “range” in price and it will just trade in its range. Earnings beats can put it up into a new range – but between earnings reports, it will just trade in an established range – and it has already established its range of between $48 and close to $60 – so, that’s why i wrote what I did on this yesterday to CJ as it won’t go to $65 anytime soon from this point – maybe it can do it at its next earnings report but that will depend on where it starts from in price when it reports – and where its price is at that point will depend on where the markets overall are trading at.
So, I was hoping it would go above $59 today so CJ could sell it and then buy it back at a lower price (if she wanted to) as I knew it would go down to $55/ $56 area – especially if the markets overall were declining – which, they are. So, that is why I told CJ last night what I did re RAX
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 10:55 am
Tony or Rol Lew or anyone willing to take this ?
How can we tell if this is a one-off down day, or beginning of a downtrend?
April 4th, 2012 at 11:00 am
Good Morning,
Can someone please comment on whether UUP looks like a buy? RSI(21) climbed over 50 and stochastics are turning positive. Although today’s bar is quite high over the 4ma, it seems like it might end up being the second close over the 4ma. Also, the 4/9 ma crossed over. Could someone please tell me whether this could have some short term upside?
Thanks
KC
April 4th, 2012 at 11:04 am
Tawny,
re.#8
Key is daily lower lows & lower highs, then the weekly charts for the same and then the monthly – but this (monthly) lags too much with my time frame anyways.
cheers!
April 4th, 2012 at 11:07 am
Hello Eve,
Any chance I could get your views on SAP.TO please? I’ve owned it since last year and I guess I picked it up at the wrong time at around $47. Now thats its back up around that area, I am hoping to sell it above $47. Should I hold on to it or sell it now before we see a bit of a pull back later this month ?
Thanks,
KC
April 4th, 2012 at 11:08 am
KC,
re.#9
UUP position? – Keep a close eyes on EUR/USD & JPY/USD…JPY/USD has very close correlation to the US market indices. DXY did hold 78 and now on it’s way to test it’s previous high from March 15.
If holding lot of risky trades (metals etc.) watch AUD/USD…trending down (fxa- etf)
April 4th, 2012 at 11:12 am
Hi kay. What’s down with drillers? All of them are trending lower, especially with today’s sell off. CFW, TCW and HAL are all very profitable but like other energy stocks, are having a tough time here.
As for my condo, on paper, I made around 35 per cent! After real estate fees, condo fees and taxes, it’s closer to 20% Not bad for a year in a stagnant market! I bought in AZ because there are no lawyers involved (savings), no extra property tax for foreigners (FL has or had this), and prices were/are so depressed. I can’t comment on Virginia, but lots of activity now in FL and heard that prices are up around 15% in a year. Today is my closing so will only be checking in periodically.
April 4th, 2012 at 11:12 am
gmsa
Re #10 – thank you. So, so we need to wait for the close and see what happens tomorrow, I guess?
April 4th, 2012 at 11:18 am
Hi Tawny, regarding market direction here’s something I’ve read and agree with:
http://ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/index.php/stock-market-us/market-needs-to-pull-back/
April 4th, 2012 at 11:21 am
This is interesting and could create another major downturn as we know what happened in Aug 2011.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nyse-margin-debt-highest-july-means-threat-margin-calls-high
“Sure enough, as of the end of February, margin debt was $289 billion, the highest since July 2011, while Net Free Credit (Free Credit Cash plus Credit balances in margin accounts less Margin Debt) of negative $33 billion (meaning investors have negative net worth) was the lowest also since July. What does this mean? Simply said, that if the cross asset rout continues, which means bonds yesterday, and stocks and commodities today, the margin calls will once again resume, as they used to in the fall of 2011, leading to a toxic liquidation spiral, pushing prices even lower.”
April 4th, 2012 at 11:22 am
Anna/TO
You too! I follow ciovacco – very good site… I like the research they’ve been doing lately. I am just trying to decide whether to take on more bear etfs.
April 4th, 2012 at 11:26 am
Hi KC,
WOW!! Haven’t seen you on here in about a year now!!! Not since I gave you my opinion on shorting magna
Hope you’ve been ok and there was nothing dire going on that was preventing you from posting on here.
So, for SAP:
Looks like the most it could get to on the upside is to $44.50 area (top of keltner AND a recent previous high it couldn’t get over). But for right now, MACD is turning lower as is stochastics too – so, it looks like it is heading lower from here – possibly to the bottom keltner at $41 area – for the past 3 months though, it has been staying above the mid keltner – and it is there right now (mid is at $32,76 and SAP is showing on my delayed time chart of $42.80). So, if it doesn’t go too far below that mid keltner, then it has the capability of running up again towards that $44.50 area.
Also, in the last 3 months, each time it has declined and hit the bottom bollinger band, it has bounced up from that to go up from there – and right now, the bottom bollinger is showing as $42.11 – so, it could just get to there and then bounce up from there. It’s hard to tell only due to the MACD and stochastics looking to head south. So, that makes reading the chart a bit more challenging to know where it might head to in price AND where it might find its bottom price before it heads higher again.
One other thing though too is that an “M” pattern is showing on the chart – and if it gets completed, then it suggests a downside to the $40.50 area – so, that’s something to keep in mind too!
Here’s the chart I’m looking at:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SAP.TO&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p44869926734
Good thing is that it seems to be in an uptrend now – so, as long as it doesn’t go all the way down to the bottom keltner, then the uptrend should be intact.
Hope this helps KC
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 11:30 am
Tawny
I.B. I am ASSuming Rol was refering to Interactive Broker.
now about is this the end of this bullmarket…
SPX should break below 38MA if it does watch if the 100MA can hold if the 100MA doesn’t then we are headed to the 200MA and if this major resistance we had in november and december.
April 4th, 2012 at 11:30 am
Tawny: Key is 50 day MA. It’s about 1370. If we close below that number this week, look out below. Mind you, Uncle Ben will be there at least until the election.
April 4th, 2012 at 11:31 am
Michael: Congratulations, great return on your investment. I keep looking and shying away but maybe I need to take the step probably very soon. Good luck with your closing and as I am writing looks like markets are holding/going up so maybe the drillers will follow. Have a great day.
April 4th, 2012 at 11:33 am
Tawny,
re.#14
Intraday levels need to be watched as well, depending on your trading horizons.
Only twice or thrice since late dec. spx breached 100hr sma. Watch it very closely with past 10 days lows.
1388/90 will be the key test today if it tries.
DXY need to go above 80.10 and close above that.
April 4th, 2012 at 11:38 am
Post 19
Basically what I am saying is if we break below 38MA then we are in for a short bearish trend only if the 100 or 200MA can hold would I say the bear has been tammed, if not then we get one nasty bear.
April 4th, 2012 at 11:39 am
tony
Thanks for both!
April 4th, 2012 at 11:41 am
Ray-K
Thank you too for your view on the SPX. As for Uncle Ben, I have read that he dare not do any more QE becuase the Republican’s are against this and will use it strongly in the political fight. Of course, there are other views on this. Who to believe.
April 4th, 2012 at 11:54 am
Hi Michael and Kay,
Hope you’re doing well.
I have been sitting in cash for awhile except for some HXD I bought on Friday. I also bought ESI.to on Friday and sold on Monday. That was a bit risky which is why I hedged it with the HXD.to.
The drillers are oversold but the trend is down. I guess if one is a value investor they could accumulate them if they’re prepared to hold them till the end of the seasonal period. I prefer to wait to get a swing trade “buy” signal before entering the seasonal trade. I might miss 5% but I’m OK with that. There are no buy signals in sight but they will eventually come.
Michael, congratulations on the condo sale. Pretty good return for 1 year, better then the stock market!
April 4th, 2012 at 11:55 am
Ana,
re. Gasoline gouging conversation two days ago & my partial disagreement to your sole point about higher taxes in Canada.
There are some refineries in Canada including sarnia/edmonton/near montreal etc. But that’s not enough.
Most of the world’s major producers provide cheaper gasoline/petrol & diesel to their domestic crowd. They can tell you about Brent/WTI etc. But if you’re producing crude oil in your own back yard (irrespective of the grade) refine it, distribute it fairly to your own citizen w/o allowing those cos. to gouge. By the way, as a tax payer we all pay directly/indirectly to those major projects through diff. levels of govt. It’s NOT just their own money/efforts/profits entirely. Don’t get me wrong I’m not asking all for free. But won’t listen to their accouting & marketing gimmicks about ‘international prices’ etc.
Bottomline, it’s a complete failure on the part of Canadian Govt. long term – not just one party. These people always thought they are sitting next door to the world’s largest consumer & don’t need to look for another buyer/market. That’s completely nuts!
It’s simple as this – if you own a dairy farm you would not let starve your family/friends of milk/butter/curd/buttermilk, no matter what the market prices are of the same.
‘Nuf said on this already.
April 4th, 2012 at 11:57 am
Hey Michael,
way to go with the condo profits for the year!!! Will you be buying another condo out there with your proceeds? Just curious.
but, way to go bud
eve
April 4th, 2012 at 11:58 am
# 4-Kay
Florida property taxes are very high for foreign owners, for example I’ll pay more property taxes for a house worth 120k in Florida than I pay for a million dollar house in Vancouver. A few years ago I looked at a 300k townhouse and property taxes were over 6k a year, and the HOA is on top of that.
My brother has a place down there and I checked it out. They have no state income tax, but they have high property taxes as they have a large seasonal population base. They have 4 levels of property taxes, in order of highest to lowest: 1)foreign; 2) homesteaders (permanent residents); 3) veterans; disabled veterans pay the least.
As a rule the Atlantic coast more expensive than the gulf coast, it’s also has a higher density of population. Hollywood Beach is mostly Quebecers…. to the point that one can buy French daily newspapers and Canadian cigarettes in many stores. Miami and the south has a large Cuban population.
Northern Florida, like Daytona Beach is a lot cooler in the wintertime than South of Palm Beach. I usually go to Gainesville (North Florida) as my younger brother likes the NHRA races… it’s ok for me, I go to keep him company.
AZ has much lower property taxes.
And one has to keep the AC on at 72 F all year round in both places. Florida has very high humidity in summer, the dry seaon is winter; Phoenix 120 F every day in summer….very very hot, bottled water will boil if left in the car and people buying groceries put their frozen foods in coolers to get them home intact.
Florida electricity costs are much higher than in Canada. In Phoenix one has to avoid Western exposure, the least desirable exposure … too hot in the late afternoon… AC cost are much higher with a western exposure and harder to sell. Both places will have Palmettos scrurrying around when one is not there… these are very large cockroaches…and other pests.
Lots of little details to factor in.
April 4th, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Hi Kay,
I think it was for you that I posted a chart of the TSX last week. It showed the H&S pattern and the notes indicated a downside target that may need to be adjusted. There is a gap in Dec between 11900-12000 that may get filled. Here is the chart again:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TSX&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p40716095406&a=262751157
April 4th, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Hi canuck2004,
I know your post 29 was for kay but I just wanted to say thank you so much for that info!! as those are GREAT things to know about when looking for places to buy in the hot US spots of Florida and Arizona for Cdns – so thank you for posting that info for kay – as it helps ME out too
eve
April 4th, 2012 at 12:17 pm
Michael
AZ condo – I think it is more than fair to add in to your profits the vacation time you spent in it vs. paying rent for house or condo…. that should add well to your profits. So, now where will you go for your esca pes to the sun?
April 4th, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Re oil and gasoline prices:
They just discussed this now on BNN – saying that the N. American gasoline prices are being based on the Brent crude price (I gave out that same info the other day of what had been written on this in the Globe and Mail newspaper last September). They (BNN) said it also has to do with oil refineries shutting down refining right now as to why the gasoline price is high – but that as both Brent and WTIC come down in price, gasoline prices will “eventually” catch up with the oil such that that price (gas) will come down too – just have to wait for the catch up I guess
eve
April 4th, 2012 at 12:28 pm
Canuck2004: Re your post on homeownership in the US, must say very informative. I really enjoy the four seasons in Canada, not too fond of very, very days. I was informed of the HOA fees but they present it as a benefit in the US. The reason why I am looking at these places as I will have a partner to invest and who will be the end user, only need for winter getaway. Imagine 2600 sq ft bungalow in Florida, 2005 built asking $148,900, these prices are unbelieveable and tempting but still hesitant for some reason. I will have to do some research into Arizona as well as I may know someone there. I visited Ft L, Miami, Tampa, Orlando and other places but my family lives outside Orlando. Thanks again for the info.
April 4th, 2012 at 12:29 pm
Hi Eve,
I would love to get your take on the $SPX. Amazingly, this thing is still in an uptrend. It has now pulled back to the 18ma and mid-keltner. So far it has always bounced off of the mid-keltner and so one could make the argument to buy it BUT their are so many warning signs on the chart that I wouldn’t do that. On the other hand I can’t really go short either because it hasn’t broken down yet. It seems close to breaking down and maybe this will happen at the close today.
Warning signs include the negative divergences between price and the momentum indicators as well as the MACD sell signal. Also the price is at resistance on the weekly chart. However, the 4ma is still above the 9ma on the daily chart (today anyway). I’m waiting to get that sell signal.
April 4th, 2012 at 12:32 pm
I had the TSX reaching a low of 12,136, so far it has hit 12,140. So I don’t think it will go any lower than my figure. Did anyone else do any calculation on the TSX anticipated low?
April 4th, 2012 at 12:36 pm
Tawny
On a 30min intraday chart I have found what T.Analyst try to look for.
since march 19th. we have higher highs and higher lows,
and if you look at the same chart, everytime the 18 crosses below the 50MA there is a big downward push before coming back higher.
April 4th, 2012 at 12:38 pm
Hi Ron/AB, Eve and Tawny. I think that I will come visit one of you for an escape to the sun! It’s been great having a winter escape. I came down in November and January and missed the two snow storms; now that’s timing! I looked at around 10 places while I’ve been down here this week, but there’s very little inventory. Apparently, it’s comparable to 2006 but with prices more than 50% off. I’m in no rush, but would like to buy something for next winter. As Canuck2004 pointed out, in the summer it gets over 100 degrees frequently. You have to have a pool and a cold beer to tolerate that; unfortunately, I don’t swim so you know what that leaves me with!
April 4th, 2012 at 12:39 pm
Ron/AB: Re post #30, sorry I missed the post on H & S on the TSX. I know the drillers are underperforming but took a swing, I was up but now lost my profit and some. I will hold for seasonality play unless I see the TSX crashing. Timing is everything, maybe we have a rally coming in the next day or so, but CFW dropped like a rocket. You were smart to sell ESI. Thanks again and please post if you see much more downside.
April 4th, 2012 at 12:43 pm
#31 Eve
I forgot, Florida in wintertime is much warmer than Phoenix…about 85 f while Phoenix one can expect 73 f from 2 pm to 6pmish….quite cool in the morning… I’ve seen frost on my car first thing in the morning….this is Xmas time and a few weeks before and after.Once in a while one can get cold in Florida as well.
As for AZ north of Phoenix can be very cold… I’ve seen a foot of snow just a few miles North of Phoenix as there is higher elevation. I’ve below 0 and snow in Flagstaff in May… the Grand Canyon is high up in the mountains. Phoenix is in a desert valley… not a lot of green and can be quite windy at times. It’s desert so it is very dry, have to walk around with a water bottle in summer to keep hydrated. In July and August one gets the Monsoon up from Baja… very stormy for a couple of hours.
April 4th, 2012 at 12:50 pm
RE GMSA # 27 Crude pricing
I agree with you that we are lacking a national energy policy and almost nobody is talking about it. Almost all oil/gasoline used east of the Ont/Man border is imported from the likes of Venezuela at Brent pricing, $ 124.86 yesterday. West Texas is getting $ 105.23 yesterday but due to the glut of oil in Cushing, the US is paying western Canada only $ 79.30 for light crude and our oilsands producers are only getting $ 70.56 a barrel. Canadians are subsidizing US drivers. I would be happy to pay western Canada the west Texas price. What is our current governments solution ? Pipeline in BC to sell to Asia so all of North America then has to pay Brent. We need a pipeline from the west to the east. Sorry for the rant. Lots of good discussion on the board today as usual.
April 4th, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Michael
If you haven’t been, check out Jamaica. Did consider buying a place there on my last visit, condo on the beach (1/2 bedroom) around 115/120,000 U.S. , although I didn’t check into the other costs associated with living there, may do that on my next visit.
Wonder how Slava is enjoying her trip, she hasn’t checked in lately.
April 4th, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Hi Michael,
If you can believe it, we have a spring snow warning in effect for today and tomorrow and cool temperatures. Yesterday was 16 degrees. Crazy weather here especially in spring as it swings often, kind of like the market now.
April 4th, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Mick
Slava is either having a great time with Micheal or she is drunk because of Micheal…
otherwise she would be here almost everyday…unless Micheal decided to throw her phone in the water
I choose the last option with a cerveza por favor.
April 4th, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Is anybody going to the stockcharts conference in Seattle June 16th?
April 4th, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Tony
Could be all of the above, I miss her posts!
April 4th, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Damn, I didn’t calculate in the tails and heads of the candlesticks, just the bodies. Guess I should have added the tails and heads.
April 4th, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Brian K
I am with you on this one, we have a government that prefers to please the US and others before they even consider its people.
this is why Chavez decided it was better to Ousted outsiders from its resources…
and I simply don’t want to continue on this path because I think it would not bode well for some countries.
April 4th, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Hi Ron/AB,
I don’t think you need ME as YOUR assessment is exactly what I would say too!!
Everything you wrote, I completely agree with!! I would add something though Ron and that is this:
If you look at the WEEKLY chart of the SPX, then you can see that each time in the last several months that the SPX has pulled back, it has gotten to the LOWEST of the 9 day MA (so, the 9 week MA) – and that MA on the weekly chart is showing as 1379. So, the SPX could pull back to that level very easily in a pullback – I wouldn’t expect this to occur all in just 3 days or so but to take a week or 2 as the SPX goes up again to its 4 day (showing right now as 1409 on the daily chart – so tomorrow, it may be at around 1404??) and then goes down again after that – doing this until it gets to that 9 week MA on the weekly chart (which, this will be a lower level than it is today as the SPX goes lower from here).
IF however, the SPX goes lower than that 9 week MA, then it will head to the mid keltner on the WEEKLY chart – and that is showing as 1335 right now – and there is REALLY strong support at 1340 – so, going to 1335 would be a reasonable level for it to get to before it bounces up again from there. Bouncing up from that mid keltner on the weekly would mean the uptrend of the SPX would still be intact.
Also, if the SPX is pulling back just around 5% to 8% in this pullback, then from its high hit of 1422, a 5% pullback means going to 1350 – and an 8% pullback means going to 1308 – and at those 2 levels, there is also strong support (at 1340 AND at 1300). BUT, as the SPX has gone up approx. 12% since the start of the year, then very easily, 50% could be given back in a pullback (as in a Fib retracement of 50%) – so this would mean a decline of 6% from its high which puts that level down to 1336 – and “coincidentally” (not really a coincidence
), that price point is right around the strong support level of 1340 AND the “current” mid keltner on the weekly chart of 1335 – and as I wrote, bouncing up from the mid keltner on the WEEKLY chart means the uptrend is kept intact.
So, I would expect the SPX to pullback to anywhere between 1300 and 1350 in this pullback between now and June – when one level is breached (like 1350), then look for it to get to its next support level to see IF it CAN find support there (so, 1340), and if it can’t find support there, then look for it to go down to the next significant price point which would be the 6% pullback level of 1336 – and if that gets breached, then look for it to head to its next support point which is the HIGH reached in January before the markets pulled back – that high is 1333 – which again, is very close to that 6% pullback level – so, that area of 1333 to 1336 is an important support area too! And if that 1333 level is breached, then see if it finds support at its next support level, etc etc – and just know where the MAJOR support levels are to see whether these hold and then to see if the uptrend resumes after that (just like what occurred at the beginning of March when i wrote to you telling you that 1340 should hold as it is STRONG support and I told you to not buy any bear ETFs UNLESS the SPX goes BELOW 1338 – and that 1340 level did hold and after that, up it went – and that 1340 level happened to be a strong PRICE support PLUS at the mid keltner on the DAILY chart too – and those 2 things combined meant that 1340 was REALLY a strong level – and thus, just as one would expect in a strong uptrending market, it did hold!). So, this is what I expect to occur this time around too – as long as the SPX is to remain in its uptrend. If it isn’t, then you’ll see the SPX go below the mid keltner on the WEEKLY chart and head towards the bottom keltner which is currently at 1246 (another STRONG support point!
).
Here’s the weekly chart I’m looking at:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=W&b=7&g=0&id=p94938475750
Also, on the weekly chart (and daily too), the RSI and stochastics AND MACD, look to be rolling over – so, this is further confirmation of a sell off in the market to more than just 2 to 3% type of thing as we’ve been having since January on pullbacks. These things of course too can change course and do the oppsite of what they’re showing today – BUT, given that the SPX has had a really good run since October basically, then I would expect the pullback will be at least 5% to 8% from here until June.
Hope this helps Ron
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Sorry Derek
I am in Montreal if lived closer I would have jumped in a plane.
plus I am going in EU this summer. if they come in the TO or NY area I drive there.
In TO I would probably try meeting some posters(such as Eve, CJ, Don/To…)
April 4th, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Ooohhh and not to forget Martine this is where the… come in handy
April 4th, 2012 at 1:11 pm
Recalculating with tails, the TSX should reach a low of 12117.
April 4th, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Come on, turn now!
April 4th, 2012 at 1:16 pm
Mick
I too miss our Slava,
and I think you are right
Micheal threw her phone in to the ocean and she is having a great time and drunk all at the same time
April 4th, 2012 at 1:18 pm
Still
you to call on your horses
April 4th, 2012 at 1:20 pm
re:SPX
The S&P has been trading in this nice box for about a month now, as long as it does not break below the box (like the tsx did today)I think the upward bias will continue until mid may.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p66198586038&a=183214001
April 4th, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Well lets all hope Slava is having the time of her life because HGU isn’t.
April 4th, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Brian K #41
Good comment and I agree 100% with the west to east pipeline idea.
I usually get blank stares when I say this, but I’ll repeat it anyway: What’s wrong with a few small refineries along said pipeline? a refinery in SK, MB, Northern ON, etc. Makes more sense to me than building one huge refinery and then trucking refined products thousands of miles. Then perhaps everyone could pay AB gasoline prices; I heard $1.18 today in Edmonton.
April 4th, 2012 at 1:40 pm
Tony: POT is just above its 18 MA, are you selling? Please comment and thanks.
April 4th, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Tony: Horses are turning, only 19 points off!
April 4th, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Arizona
If anyone requires info on retirement communities (not condos) with single family dwellings, I checked out over a dozen in the Phoenix area and bought one year ago.
HOA fees $115 per month, every sport facility imagined, crafts, wood shop, the best pool, Trune golf course, full service restaurant, and very little pollution, extremely quiet, 10 minutes to town.
Ownership 55+ for used homes, 45+ for new homes. 50% canadian owned.
April 4th, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Canuck
Are you topping up on any dividend paying stocks at these levels?
April 4th, 2012 at 2:09 pm
Hi Eve,
Thanks a lot for #49. I know what I’m looking for but it is easy to start seeing what you want to see after staring at charts for too long. I value your TA and it is always great to get your confirmation. Your analysis is always very detailed which I appreciate very much.
The index is so over extended it seems more risky to play the long side but yet the trend is up so you can’t really play the short side either.
There are still some decisons to make like whether one should play the counter trend trade to the downside to the 9ma and or mid-keltner OR wait for the trend to really break before playing the downside.
Your TA helps a great deal Eve, Thanks!
April 4th, 2012 at 2:13 pm
$BPGDM chart is going to show another ugly down turn after the markets close today.
Notice for over past year it’s showing lower lows & lower highs.
Q. is when does this train halt & head back up?
.
Brian K
re.#47
Thx for adding your voice and putting it better than I ever could.
April 4th, 2012 at 2:21 pm
#2
#2
tony
Yesterday, the middle of the bollinger band for HVU was at 5.47. That is the reason I thought it would get there. However, as you know this is a Horizon product and evolves daily, because of the daily balancing. At this moment, it is at 5.05, but changes depending on the price.
This is one wild product to day trade.
April 4th, 2012 at 2:27 pm
Hi canuck2004:
re post 40:
Oh that sounds like better weather then (for me I mean) in Arizona as I prefer a dry heat and cooler (wouldn’t go there or to Florida in the summer – been to Vegas in June – was MEGA HOT!!! even though a dry heat). But oh yes those awful bugs in Arizona – YUCK!!! same with the tarantulas there I’ve heard too – UGHH!! That sounds dreadful!! I know Florida has them too – the bugs I mean – not sure if they have those kind of cockroaches but they have cockroaches for sure that I’m not fond of AT ALL!! YUCK!! Things for sure to be mindful of when contemplating house purchases in the US. Thanks too for that extra info cancuck – I appreciate that
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 2:30 pm
Hi Michael,
Oh I don’t think you’d be interested in coming to Toronto for a vacay during the winter months – not when you love the sun as much as you do and don’t like the snow
But if you ever come this way, I’d be happy to meet up with you for a few micro brew beers somewhere 
Toronto has MANY great places for that 
– tony – you too 
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 2:31 pm
Ric,
I would be one person who would like to know more about your information about Phoenix.
Where do you live in the summer time?
April 4th, 2012 at 2:40 pm
Hi Ron/AB,
Glad to help
And yes, I COMPLETELY AGREE with YOU too!!! In that, I too always prefer to wait to see a confirmation as to where something will go to in price (or what support point will be breached OR held) before knowing which side to take. So, the fact that the SPX is currently holding the mid keltner level on the DAILY chart (mid is at 1397), means that it “could” simply resume its uptrend from here.
So, yes, i feel too it is prudent to simply wait for now and see whether it will go higher tomorrow than just to its 4 day MA at 1410 currently on the daily chart (maybe 1404 tomorrow ??) OR to see whether it will “just” go to its 4 day MA tomorrow and then resume the pullback again (either tomorrow or next week I’m meaning to resume the pullback). I think the employment report on Friday will determine where it decides to go to next week. So, that might be “THE” catalyst for one way or the other way
Thanks Ron
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Hi Ric,
Thank you so much for posting that info on condos in Phoenix! I’m nowhere near the age of retirement – BUT, i do find the info useful nonetheless – so, thank you
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Hi Ana,
I too now use BOTH the bollinger bands AND the keltner (they work really well together I find). And as you and I were discussing HVU yesterday, the mid kelt was at $5.50 area (same too with mid bollin). Today, both are showing around $5.35 area (mid bb is at $5.35 and mid kelt is at $5.37). So, that would potentially (for now) be where HVU could get to – depending on how far back the SPX goes to in price. Here’s the chart I’m looking at:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVU.TO&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p47024352988
Also, each time HVU has moved up off its low price in the last 3 weeks, it has only gotten up to the 9 day MA and then pulled back to go back down to bottom keltner again. At the beginning of March when the SPX pulled back to 1391 (which was the mid keltner) before resuming the uptrend again, HVU went ABOVE the 9 day MA and went to the mid keltner (at $10 level) and then came down again to go back to the bottom keltner again. Today, HVU is ABOVE the 9 day MA – so, this too is suggestive of it going to the mid keltner area if it can remain above both the 4 day MA and the 9 day MA on the DAILY chart.
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 2:52 pm
PS Ana,
here’s the DAILY chart of HVU with the 9 day MA on it so you can see what I’m looking at too:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HVU.TO&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p50528848617
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 2:59 pm
PS Ron/AB,
I forgot to ask – was what I wrote in my post 49 on the SPX also your assessment of it too?? You alluded to that being the case but I wasn’t 100% sure if it was – so, please let me know Ron?!
thank you!
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Florida
We lived in Florida for 6 years (I loved it), and in addition to what Canuck says about property taxes (we paid almost double what our next door neighbour paid), house insurance is way more expensive due to the hurricanes, and you also have to get flood insurance in certain areas. Mold is a problem if anything goes wrong with your A/C.
April 4th, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Hi Eve,
Thank you for your comments on HVU. I usually set my bollinger band to (18) (2), that is where I found the middle of the band at
5.05. That is where I think we might get to in the next few days.
You might not be of physical retirement age, but you are certainly of financial retirement age. The “quiet” might be too quiet for a youngster like yourself!
April 4th, 2012 at 3:20 pm
re OPTIONS plays on a volatile stock of SINA (can go up $4 to $5 EASILY in a day – and for options expiration on the weeklies, it often does this) – I just took these comments off the SINA page on yahoo finance – seems like a good strategy (and I’ve seen SINA do this kind of thing OFTEN) – so, here it is:
Look at $Sina options today, biggest vol. Is 65 calls? Longs must have faith in the options factor..its going to 65, at least by fri…
game is; buy $sina long, sell puts for premium, buy calls cheap, turn on HFT computer, collect on: calls, longs, keep $ from worthless puts.
——————————————————————–
Rol lew,
what are your thoughts on that strategy (if it pans out as it is looking right now I mean)?
Anyone else who plays options: (Eric Wheatley maybe?? if he’s here today I mean)
what’s YOUR take on that strategy?
Any replies are welcome
Thank you!
eve
April 4th, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Hi Ana,
Oh I see (re your bollinger band setting) – I didn’t know you used a different setting – sorry about that.
What do you mean by “the quiet” Ana? LOL – sorry, I’m a bit lost with that statement
Thanks Ana
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 3:31 pm
Hi Wendy,
Thanks for that info on Florida. My uncle and aunt have a house there too (for the winter months) – they recently got a green card (maybe 5 yrs ago now – but have had the house there for about 20 yrs) – but even with their green card, they pay different taxes than the residents there – I think it has something to do with only living there for 6 months of the year AND having their “main” residence in Canada – something like that anyway. I know they often complain though about the taxes they have to pay down there as compared to full time residents there – maybe thaT was pre card days though? hmm, not sure now – guess I’ll need to ask my Aunt about that LOL.
Thanks Wendy for that info on Florida
You going this year to seattle for the stock charts conference (as you did last year)?
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 3:34 pm
Ana
Arizona
I still work full time in Edmonton. I bought so I could take advantage of the Canadian dollar, and the low housing prices in the USA. I spend about 8 weeks a year there. My friend who is in his forties also bought. There are no cockroaches that I know of. You do have to spray for termites every five years, crickets and scorpions also.
http://www.golfat55.com/communities.html
I have attached a web site that lists golf courses on retirement communities.
I live in Sun City Festival. Absolutely the best decision albeit a hard financial decision I have made other than building my own house in Edmonton. No regrets, plenty of fun.
April 4th, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Eve,
Do not worry, about the setting of the bollinger band, as I jump around on the charts to analyse price action from the Keltner to the Bollinger Bands at 20,2 and at 18,2. I just day trade “most” of the time with the 18,2.
In #61, when Ric was describing the Phoenix homes, he said that it was “extremely quiet.” I just meant that you are too young for “extremely quiet.” (However I have quite a few male friends, in their late 50s who have their companions, in their 30s living with them at these retirement communities.)
April 4th, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Markets
Strangely enough my wifes RRSP Portolio of dividend paying stocks with low beta was up today.
April 4th, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Ana
Believe me when I say it is definitely not quiet socially at our AZ house. But at night it is dead quiet outside, no cars, no noise, no planes, a million stars. Yup there are few fifty year old guys down there with some nice eye candy hanging on to their arms.
April 4th, 2012 at 3:50 pm
KC,
re SAP:
Oh there you go – went to just below the mid keltner TODAY but then bounced up from there (just as it has done in the last several months) (as I wrote earlier today). So, looks like SAP will try to get back up again to that recent high of $44 and possibly to above that price to get to the top keltner area at $44.70 right now (was at a lower price earlier today).
So, as it bounced up from the mid keltner today, then this suggests the uptrend is still intact. Stochastics is confirming this too as it has now turned around since this morning and is showing it as going up now (this morning, it was showing going down – but since then, it has now curled up which suggests going up from here). SAP could get stopped though at the upper bollinger band which is at $43.90 right now – BUT, I feel it will go above there to test that $44 level (its recent high price) and see if it can head higher from there.
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Hi Ana,
Oh I see re “the quiet”
Well, I actually like calm and quiet – so, I wouldn’t mind that really 
Just wouldn’t be interested though in living around a retirement community as I just wouldn’t fit in LOL – I’m surprised that 50 yr olds are even living in retirement communities as to me, that is too young for that! I have several male friends in their early 50′s and their looks, bodies, and energy are that of a late 30′s, early 40′s male (they’re all built and have all their hair and dye it too LOL – plus have very young looking faces too) – so, for sure they’d never live in a retirement community even though they are in their early 50′s now (oh, one WILL be 50 in May – so, he’s not “yet” there – the others I know are 51). I’m surprised though that the 30 yr olds are living in retirement communities – ughh – I couldn’t do it myself!! But quiet is fine by me 
Just a nice pool and music and some fruity drinks – and sunshine!! – and no outside noise of traffic or horns or crowds etc (I don’t like crowded places) – sounds perfect to me 
Thanks Ana
eve
April 4th, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Hi Eve,
Re #73
I’ve done less work on the SPX vs the TSX but I do agree with your numbers.
Assuming the 1386 low is broken and the 4ma crosses the 9ma then I expect a first target of between 1340-1358. The next target i would expect is 1290-1310.
If the pullback turns into a downtrend then the targets are 1248)and 1202.
Here’s my chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p40716095406&a=254470331
April 4th, 2012 at 4:37 pm
AAAARRRRRGGGGGHHHHH!!!!!!
Kay
if tomorrow price opens and closes below the 18MA. thursday I will definitely sell.
I got there lousy annual doc from pot, and they ask for the investors to accept their bonuses and raises,
the board as decided they are allowed a bonus 176% for the CEO, on performance company after the take out offer from bhp at 140 basically at a bonus should be allowed only if share price is above the close from the previous year, assuming they closed the year in march, they should give that money to the shareholders.
176% bonus equates to 2Million $.
how can I accept. I am not even voting for the board to be reelected.
where is carl icahn when you need him. he would have their asses on a plate.
April 4th, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Hi Ron/AB,
Oh thank you for your chart
I see that there is a support pivot at that 1340 level – and as that is price support from February and from March in the sell down in march (at the beginning), then having a support pivot point there PLUS the mid keltner being nearby that price level (on the weekly chart) (of 1335) AND the 6% pullback price (50% give back of this year’s rally from Jan til March) being close by there too (at 1336), then that 1340 level is even MORE significant of a price level that the SPX seems likely to go down to. So, IF that price point doesn’t hold on the sell off (including the 1333 to 1336 area), then yes, it would seem that the next “significant” price level it would look to test would be that 1300 level (a support level too from February’s sell down). So, good to see our analysis has produced VERY similar price points for support 
Oh also, there’s support too at 1378 that the SPX could get to and then bounce up from there – so, that’d be another point to watch for too! But I think it’s that 1340 level that it will be drawn to – I guess time will tell
Thanks Ron
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Florida and Phoenix a little more…
Avoid manufactured homes, can’t insure them if they are over 20 years old and as they older, the insurance premiums get higher and higher in each and every year.
Also Florida more expensive to insure manufactured homes than block built… hurricanes I guess. My younger brother is trying to sell his refurbished 3 bdr manufatured home to get a block home as per insurance issues…getting way too expensive to insure. He already got wacked by a hurricane a few years ago…got FEMA money to rebuild.
I looked at an old one in his complex for 85k a few years ago, that included the lot, but it was 20 years old and could not be insured. It needed a lot of work…. To remove and put in a new manufactured home I costed at 100K… but no outbuildings or carport… so around 200k-220k minimum really…for land and complete new ….for that much one can buy a very nice regular house, cheaper to insure and goes up in value (one assumes). Manufactured homes cannot be mortgaged, just the land if you own it. The manufactured home is a personnal loan (in Canada anyway, I assume in USA as wel… 5 years only amortization). Harder to sell as it limits your buyers.
In addition, a Canadian (foreigner) cannot do any work on your own house, you have to hire an American to do it, any work kind of at all, no renos permitted. Your American neighbours will watch you and rat you out… I know. The irony in this is most likely the American contractor you get will hire illegal Mexicans to do the work for him….lol
# 79 Ric oh yeah there are cockroaches…Palmettos…they live in the drains and come out at night … they are about an inch or two big and they are all over the Southern US:, the American Cockroach. I use to live in Southern California in the early 70s (Imperial Beach) and we had them there too. They are everywhere, it’s their natural habitat.
One more thing, health insurance while you are there… cheap when you are young and healthy…but once over 60, it goes up….once you have health issues, it goes up again… andit is not for months, good for 120 days at a time only, then one has to come back, then go back out. If you fudge anything, they will not pay….insurance companies are not in the business of paying out claims, they are in the business of collecting premiums. I know a guy in his 70s with a heart issue and it cost him 2k a month for health insurance.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:01 pm
Everyone
I have been thinking about what could move the markets and in which direction in the short term. (outside of the problems with China and Europe, that is.)
1) First Quarter Earnings (Don brought this up Monday I think) I found this:
http://www.factset.com/websitefiles/PDFs/earningsinsight/earningsinsight_3.30.12/
I googled “earnings estimate and dates for first quarter” and found considerable information, including individual companies, if you wish to look them up.
2) Fed Delivers more quantitative easing. If and when? Anyone found any VALID info?.. there is so much information leaked on purpose that has not been true.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:08 pm
mick/nv #56 – Nice box Mick – Darvas would be proud!! LOL
Well, back from the big smoke and looking at the disaster that is my portfolios; looks like all the indices $US & $CDN alike were down today. I had lots of time to try to connect on the playbook, but no workable WIFI where I was – FRUSTRATION
Got home to see the bloodbath.
Tony/Eve after all your kind help and trying to work out what to do – RAX & MCD both spreading red ink again. Was there a particular event that triggered this or is it just profit takers (sigh)
April 4th, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Hi Eve,
re # 76 – the SINA question……
This is a daring BULLISH outlook on a stock that has
been retreating for maybe a month, but I can see why it
would be tempting at this point – today 61.41 down -2.19.
Ist – it is now sitting at support @ 61.41 that was
established each day Feb 22 23 24 & 27.
2nd – It also spent a week consolidating in the 63
area during Jan 23 – 30. So yes – it could bounce here.
And those bounces have been good for 10 – 20 dollars
over 4 – 6 weeks just this year alone.
So let’s look at some numbers. The 4-6 weeks period is
significant to me, so I would be looking at May or June
options – definitely NOT April – with 2 1/2 weeks to go
on those. Lets us go with the 10$ possible move up.
The June 72.5 Call is 3.10/ 3.20 OI = 1704 (good)
The June 52.5 Put is 3.00/ 3.05 OI = 1208 (also good)
So if I were to sell this put and buy this call, the COST would
eventually be $10 cents per spread, if SINA cooperates, and goes
UP from here to the 3rd Friday in June (72 days from here).
Eve, Can you maybe go to the simulator and see what the VALUE of the
spread would be, if, say, SINA goes to $70 in, say, 20 days?
I will look at that on the weekend & post some words about it.
So what are the dangers here?
On the calls, you could lose the whole 3.20 if SINA disappoints.
10 contracts – loss would be $3200.
On the naked short puts, the ultimate danger is that you will
have to buy 1000 shares (assuming 10 contracts) at 52.50, if
SINA is “at” or below this mark on June 15th. BUT, remember,
you DO NOT have to just sit there, and see it continue falling,
and just do NOTHING all the way to June 15th.
But if SINA finishes at 52.51 @ opex, then you get to keep
the $3000 – for 10 contracts. But you lose the $3200 paid for
the calls.
……………………………………….
So what would I go for right here?
Well, if you put one of Slava’s lugers to my head, & told me
to clickit or else! I would take the opposite trade, something
BEARISH, and something cheap, (of which there are many, many, options,
so that if I am wrong (again), I would not be taking a bath.
My thinking is, SINA is still going DOWN, so I just cannot get
my finger to click a bullish trade.
…………………………………..
You can also hedge that double bullish trade above, by selling
and off-setting call, probably say the June 77.5 for 2.10 / 2.16;
and also buying and off-setting June put, say the June 47.5 for 1.60 / 1.65.
This lowers your risk a great deal, but not necessarily your % return.
That can be simulated too.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:38 pm
Hi CJ,
Oh this is why I was so anxious for you to sell RAX at over $59 (since last week I mean) because I knew RAX would be going down to $55/ $56 area BEFORE it would head to $60 and over. Although, it COULD have made it to close to $60 today IF the markets hadn’t sold off today. I wish you had sold it yesterday when it went to over $59 – at least then you could have gotten out at break even rather than being in the hole with it of over $2 (from buying it at $58.80 last week). Argghh, I feel so bad for you about this CJ!!! It will go back up again BUT if the SPX goes below the mid keltner, then it will go lower from there – and RAX then will go below the mid keltner too (mid kelt is at $56.38 right now) – but it does have support at that $55 level (which is why I keep writing about it going down to $55/ $56 area) and it did bounce up from there today after it hit $55.74. But where it goes from here will be dependent upon where the SPX goes from here – same thing too with MCD – although with MCD, it was taken OFF Goldman’s conviction buy list today (and replaced by Starbucks) – that’s why MCD sold down today.
So, look at Ron/AB;s, mick/nv’s, tony’s, and my assessments from today of where we all see the SPX going in price (POTENTIALLY) – I’ve written a few posts to Ron/AB on this today – and Ron/AB has written a couple of posts to me on this today too! So check out all our posts on this. Oh, I think gmsa wrote a post on this today too – so, check out his post too! Not sure if others wrote (I’m sorry if I’m forgetting anyone) – oh Michael may have written on this today too. So anyway, several ppl’s posts today to check out to see where the SPX may go to next from here.
As for why the markets sold off? – it was due to several reasons – but basivcally, the fact that the fed minutes released yesterday showing that they are not prepared right now to do anymore easing (UNLESS the economic data starts deteriorating again they said), this is when the markets started to sell off yesterday as this rally since 2009 has been fueled by quantitative easing measures globally (and low interest rates) – so if the fed is saying they are not going to do any further easing (UNLESS warranted), this is why the markets sold off – also, the markets are thinking this means the Fed may start to increase interest rates sooner than 2014 IF the economic data continues to get better from here – thus, higher interest rates are not good for borrowing money (or for margin) for buying stocks – thus, the markets sold off. It was basically just an excuse to sell the markets off as they have had a substantial gain since January 1st of 12% for the SPX and 30% gain since the low of october 2011 without any sort of a significant pullback – so the Fed minutes just gave the markets the catalyst they needed in order to sell these markets down. Is nothing more than that really!
So, have a look at the posts today from Ron/AB, mick/nv, tony, and myself (and others) for potential price targets of where the SPX may go to in this pull back (the pull back should complete itself by June sometime – IF this IS “the” pullback we’ve all been waiting for rather than just a simple 3 day decline and then up again that has been seen each month since January – which, it could just be that again and then the “REAL” sell down could come then in May instead).
I hope things went well today for you CJ at PMH
eve
April 4th, 2012 at 5:42 pm
Tawny,
This will be the mover for the market in the short term:
“March Non-farm Payrolls to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to fall to 200,000 from 227,000 in February. Private Payrolls are expected are expected to fall to 215,000 from 233,000 in February. The March Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 8.3%. March Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.1% in February.”
Our markets will be closed on Friday. So we will see the result in the Monday session.
China was on a holiday yesterday, however open today, so perhaps their market will take futures down more as they did not particiate yesterday.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Gold has been in a 3year weekly channel, recent mos putting the lower trendline support in jeopardy. Significant support in $1480-1500 zone. Measurable tgt. would be $1150 if $1480 broken. Sept 140 GLD puts good way to play it /hedge in my opin.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:53 pm
I have not posted here in a long time.
I have an hypothesis that I wonder if anyone agrees with:
The most recent selloff yesterday, today and likely feeding into tomorrow is really just to position “smart money” and algos to scalp the NFP report early Monday (NFP comes on Friday when markets are closed).
Unless of course the NFP is the precipice for a manufactured crisis that will imply the need for QE3 and an ever bigger scalp after.
April 4th, 2012 at 5:58 pm
Hi Rol lew,
WOW!!! I feel so bad Rol, that you posted such an in depth response to me on that strategy
as I know SINA really well – so, I know its supports and resistance levels etc. and what it tends to do daily (but thank you anyway so much for your in depth post Rol 
) – I was really just interested in knowing what you thought of the strategy that had been posted today on it on yahoo finance because what that person is saying about SINA going to $65 by this Friday for the weekly options expiration, is VERY achievable for SINA as it is HIGHLY manipulated on a daily AND weekly basis – it always has been!! (the strategy is for the WEEKLY options expiration – not for the monthly on April 21st).
I’ve often seen it sell down to around $64 on a Wednesday for example, and then the calls at $70 are REALLY cheap BUT that is where the most volume is for the calls – and then by Friday of that week, sure enough, it goes straight to that $70 level – thus, the calls have gained significantly at that point in those 2 days – so, the market makers sell it off to make the $70 weekly calls REALLY cheap (on Tues or Wed that week) and they buy the cheap calls there and then they run the price up to $70 by the week’s end and collect on those higher priced calls at $70 – “they” do this ALL the time with SINA!! It is so highly manipulated!!
So, the strategy that was posted today on it is very achievable – oh wait, markets this week are closed on Friday – so, it would need to go to $65 by tomorrow in order for the strategy to work – BUT with SINA, it is doable – simply due to the high manipulation in this stock. So, that’s really what I was interested in knowing – was your thoughts on doing that strategy IF you can assume that the stock today will go to that $65 level by week;s end (and yes, I’m asking you to please “assume” that it can) – so, if you can assume it can, then what kind of gains could that strategy (in my post above – taken from yahoo finance) give under such circumstances of going to that strike price of $65 by week’s end from that $61 level??
Thank you so much Rol!! You are very sweet to have taken such time to give me all of that extra info
Hope this helps clarify what I’m looking for
Thanks Rol lew
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 6:06 pm
Hi Canuck2004,
thank you again so much for that extra info you gave on purchasing Florida homes – it is appreciated
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 6:21 pm
PS Rol lew,
After that person on yahoo finance posted that options strategy for SINA, they then posted this as well (to someone else on there – these posts are all taken from stocktwits site and are linked to yahoo finance):
@yordy16 we ve seen this $sina game played many many times haven t we my friend?
and then that yordy person posted this as a reply:
@Dlerch yes we have, and more and more to come $SINA
and yes, I’ve seen it happen too – ALL the time with SINA – almost EVERY week actually (for the weekly options expiration).
After that, someone else posted saying the markets are closed on Friday, so then the person that posted that options strategy then wrote this:
@executorx Oh ya that s right! So $Sina has to start today to get those 65+ calls
- so ya, the board is also looking at options for calls and puts and are assuming that SINA will go to $65 tomorrow so that the calls at that price today will be much higher tomorrow (they traded today at 8 cents) – BUT, looking at the $62.50 level, there are more calls bought at that price point for tomorrow’s expiration than at the $65 level (volume at $65 is 358 and at $62.50, volume is 540 – earlier today, the $65 strike price had the higher volume on the calls) – so, it might instead just get pinned tomorrow at $62.50 rather than $65 – but still, the $62.50 options today were selling for 30 cents – so, if SINA goes to $62.50 tomorrow, then those calls will be worth a lot more – right?? and then the puts they sold today for a premium at say $62.50 would expire worthless if the stock goes to $62.50 tomorrow (or to $65) – is that right Rol lew??
Thank you!!!
Eve
April 4th, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Hi guys, .. well, I logged in just now for the first time since last Friday and just gasped.. HGU! OMG! Wow.. I never put a stop loss and it dropped froom $10.35 on Monday to $8.77 today and I still own my huge position. So down -$32k in two days plus my other gold stocks are down as well. Not feeling too good. What happened? I see gold pulled back a bit but.. just speechless. What do I do now with my hgu?
P.S. Thank you for thinking of me to those who mentioned my name
I’m really touched.
April 4th, 2012 at 7:43 pm
Tony
There is a conference in NY in October. I am in St. Albert near Edmonton so it is just a 2 hour flight for me. It would be good to meet up with some posters here. Everybody is quite a distance away, though, for the most part.
Derek
April 4th, 2012 at 7:56 pm
Slava: Just hold on. When the US tanks after the election and the $ goes in the crapper, Gold will be the play. Be Patient. It will pay off.
April 4th, 2012 at 9:27 pm
Hi Eve,
I cannot help letting my own “biases” influence my posts.
With respect to weekly options, there are two extremes, and
everything in between –
people either buy the really cheap ones (i.e. out of the money,
with just a i or 2 days to expiration, or they buy the
more expensive weeklies – i.e,. those issued on fridays,
for the next week expiration, PLUS deep in the money.
These people are talking the real aggressive route at least
on the calls. The AprWk1 65 Call is .05/.08 OI 1313, Volume today 1427.
The delta right now is 0.07 – This means (approximately) that there
is a 7% probability that these will expire in the money. It also means
that for each $1 increase in SINA, these calls will gain 7 cents.
So if SINA goes to 65 tomorrow (BTW, I guess there is no trading on Friday),
then this call will gain at least .25. Another factor to consider, is that,
as the call gets closer to the money, the delta will increase, so this .25 is
a conservative estimate. The delta of the 60 call is .78, so if sina goes to 65
that .07 delta could be .4 or .5 (the fact that there is no time left is a drag
on delta increasing more)
So let’s guess .4 – meaning the calls will increase by (65 – 61.41) x .4 = 1.44.
So that is the outcome that they are hoping for. So what % is that, from .08 to 1.52?
Some people would say that those are great odds!
Add to that the AprWk1 62.5 Puts. They could have been sold today at the close for 1.42 /1.50. If SINA goes to 65 or even 62.51 by tomorrow, they get to keep that
premium ( again assuming that the markets are closed on Friday). So what % would that
be on your risk? BTW, what is your risk in doing this? And do you want to take it on?
Some people would say, yes! indeed!.
The other approach is to wait for the AprWk2 options to begin trading, I guess on monday morning, and buy deep in the money calls, and also sell far out of the money
puts, for a better probability of getting a SMALLER % return.
As you can see from my previous reply, i.e., using June options,
with 72 days to go, I really do not like playing with fire. BUT if someone
does it & it works – then more power to them! – No guts, No glory?
April 4th, 2012 at 10:12 pm
Ana Re #93
Yes, the Non-Farm Payrolls are certainly a near term call for the markets to react.
I still think that earnings and more importantly the guidance will be a major market catalyst.
Although, with the retail investors still mostly on the sidelines, one would think the institutional buyers would already be aware.
It seems I am not alone here in thinking that our world is a global one, and in spite of the so-called improvement in the U.S. economy, it cannot make much of an advance with Europe in recession and China faltering. Europe is now down 5% which commenced on the Bradley date of March 16th, perhaps N.A. is just begining to play catch up.
Very interesting charts in this article:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/more-echoes-2011-european-stocks-signal-trouble-ahead
Hope I made some sense here as I am way over tired and heading to bed.
April 4th, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Ray, thank you… It’s like there is an all out war on gold stocks out there, I definitely didn’t expect this. Oh how I wish I could go back to Monday morning to sell my hgu, another costly mistake. I got carried away having a great time in Cancun. I suppose I’ll have to hold it for now.
April 4th, 2012 at 10:21 pm
For those thinking of buying U.S. real estate –
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/second-foreclosure-tsunami-coming-and-about-kill-any-hopes-housing-bottom
April 4th, 2012 at 11:38 pm
Eve,
Thanks for your take on SAP.TO I actually emailed you a couple of times in the past year so I figured you were just busy.
Thanks,
KC
April 5th, 2012 at 12:25 am
Hi Rol lew,
Thank you so much!! Your info in that new post really does help me in trying to understand how they would / could gain from that strategy posted! As the poster stated, they (we) see this occur over and over with SINA – it tends to happen almost every week AND every month too for monthly options expirations – if you’re interested at all in seeing this too for yourself, just look at options volumes for SINA on a monday to Wednesday during any week – and see if by Friday if SINA goes straight to the price that had the most volume in calls on that Monday to Wednesday of that week. So, “they” sell it down at the start of the week only to buy the higher strike price call options at a really low price – and then take the price up to that strike price by Friday of that week (plus I guess they sell puts too to collect the premium and then trash those puts by the Friday by driving up the price in SINA – very clever really!!). They do this all the time!! It’s just “sometimes” unclear as to which strike price they end up choosing for the Friday weekly expirations.
Yes, the markets for trading stocks and options are closed on Friday this week – the bond market though in the US is open – go figure
Thank you so much Rol lew for the explanation on this!! It really helps me understand this stuff!!
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 12:33 am
Hi KC,
You’ve emailed me several times in the past year?? I’ve never received any emails from you – that is so strange!! Are you sure you’re emailing the correct address? I only just posted my email address on here in November 2011 – but since that yime, I’ve not received any email from you (I’ve received emails from others on here – so, I do receive them). But i didn’t check that email account for the entire month of February – I only checked it around March 8th – so, when I did check it, I had over 200 emails waiting there (and i didn’t go through all of them) – so, that’s the only time I didn’t check the account. So, maybe you had emailed a different email address?? especially if you had emailed prior to November as I only set that account up IN November – specifically to post it here on Tech talk.
Sorry for any misunderstanding with this KC – I would have answered your email (as i would anyone’s email) if I had received it. So, I’m thinking you might have sent the email to an address that wasn’t actually mine. Sorry KC.
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 12:52 am
Eve,
If you remember, I gave you my email and asked you to email me. Thats how I got your address and you did write a couple of emails to me, before I went off radar for a while. Earlier this year, I did rememeber you and thought I should email and see how you were doing, so I did, twice I think. I’ve had your address for over a year now.
I even remember writing to you about your Arthritis and explained I had two family members with it.
No need to apologize, thats alright. I dont have your other email address. I could try and forward my past emails to you.
Btw, what parameters do you use for stochastics, macd and keltner please ?
Thanks,
KC
April 5th, 2012 at 12:58 am
Eve,
What sign should I look for to determine that SAP.TO will not head about the $44 area? I too saw some resistance there (double, triple top I think?). Should I wait till close tomorrow to see if it fails the upward trend or sell and wait till it drops back to 41 area?
Thanks again and good night.
KC
April 5th, 2012 at 1:08 am
KC,
Oh my god!! you are totally right!!! I completely forgot about that (funny too as my memory is usually excellent!!). I don’t think I use that email account any longer – was it my yahoo account?? Or a gmail account?? I have several email accounts (I have several in yahoo and several in gmail too – plus one hotmail acct that i haven’t used in about 5 yrs now LOL) and I haven’t used several of them now in about a year! A friend of mine from Germany emailed me at christmas time in one of my yahoo accts I gave to her a few years ago – then she sent me another email to my personal email account to tell me she had sent me an email to my yahoo acct (with pictures attached) as i had told her to send pics to the yahoo acct but that i don’t check it often – so, she emailed me to my personal acct just to tell me she had sent me mail to my yahoo acct LOL – and i still haven’t even checked her email from then (at christmas i mean) as i haven’t checked out that yahoo acct in over a year now!! So, I’m wondering if that is the account I gave to you too?? I guess I’ll need to check that account then – so sorry about that KC!! I will check the acct i’m thinking of and then send you an email with a new email address for you to use! i check that new one now about twice a week (a gmail acct) – so, i can be reached through that account.
As for my parameters used for stochastics and MACD – i just use the default settings supplied on stockcharts – but for the keltner, i change the default setting to 2.5 for the middle number (instead of 2.0 which is the default) – and if a stock goes above the top keltner or below the bottom keltner on that 2.5 setting (and doesn’t come down from that top OR doesn’t go up from going through the bottom on that setting), then i change the middle number to 3.0 as when a stock goes through the top keltner OR bottom keltner using that 3.0 setting as the middle number, the stock VERY SOON THEREAFTER will start coming down in price (if above the top keltner) OR start going up in price (if below the bottom keltner) – like almost immediately it will change direction once it breaches the top or bottom keltner using that 3.0 setting. Hope that helps KC
I’m going to go check that yahoo acct now and see if that’s the acct address I gave to you from before
Sorry again about that KC 
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 1:42 am
Hi KC,
Ok, I checked the acct I thought it was – and it wasn’t that acct! So now I don’t even know which acct it was – so, I’ve just set up a new acct address – and here it is: eve12333@yahoo.ca
So, if you email me there, then I’ll get your email – if you do write to me though, then please tell me something in the email that you and I would know about from our past emails from last year – that way, I’ll know for sure it is you emailing! Sound good?
Thanks KC
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 1:51 am
Hi Eve,
I know you have an amazing memory, but remembering that I went to the StockCharts conference last year – that really is good! Yes, I’m going to ChartCon 2012 this August. I learned so much last summer, met some really nice people, and had a great time. This year I’m going with a friend. Will you be there? It would be fun to meet you.
Re: Florida property taxes – We lived in Broward County, which is the Ft. Lauderdale area. When we were there (we bought a house in 2001), once you buy your house, you start off paying taxes on the new market price of your home. So for the first year, a foreigner would pay the same as an American who bought the same priced house at the same time. As a foreigner, your taxes go up each year at market. An American (and I think people with Green Cards)could apply for a “Homestead Exemption”. This gives them a small break on their taxes, but more importantly it caps the increase to a fairly low amount (I think it was 6% when we were there). So, with increasing property values, you can see how a foreigners property tax would go up quickly, while an American’s property tax would stay low. I have no idea if this is still the same now, we’ve been back in Vancouver for 6 1/2 years now.
This used to really bother me as our neighbours were receiving the same services (fire, police, road improvement etc.)as we were. However, we were really lucky to have a fantastic public school, for which I was willing to pay more for (through property taxes) as a non American.
April 5th, 2012 at 2:01 am
Hi KC,
The only way you can tell if SAP will make it above that $44 level is to wait to see if it does go above that level – that’s just how resistance works (I’m not being flip about this – that’s just how it works). IF it gets say to just shy of $44 and then falls back again, then that will be its 3rd time trying to get through there! Each time a stock tries to get through a resistance area, it makes that price point weaker and weaker as the more people that sell at that resistance point (who’ve been holding the stock for months who bought at that $44 level and then saw the stock decline), then the more people who sell it there in order to get their money out at break even, then the less sellers there are at that price point – and eventually then, the price WILL go above that resistance. So, the fact that it was just at $44 recently (thus, people haven’t been holding it for MONTHS and waiting to get back up there) means the resistance shouldn’t be THAT strong that it would take say 5 tries to break through there – but then again, one never knows for sure about that! So, usually after 3 or 4 tries, a stock WILL get through a resistance point – and if it breaks through on higher than normal volume (like 2 to 3x higher than normal), then that is considered a “breakout” – and a stock will usually head higher after a breakout – and then on a pullback, the break out price point becomes support – this is what is SUPPOSED to happen with breakouts – BUT, it doesn’t ALWAYS happen this way as even though a stock does have a “break out” (and remember, a break out will only be one IF the volume of it is 2 to 3x that of normal daily volume AND the stock is going through a resistance price that has been resistance for several times in the last several weeks to several months) – the stock on a pullback may not find support at its break out price point and it can fall below that support level (COG is an excellent example of this). The good thing going for SAP right now is that it is in an uptrend – and it confirmed this again today by not going significantly below the mid keltner – IF it did go significantly below the mid keltner, and kept falling, then it would most likely head to the bottom keltner – and this would be suggestive of the uptrend turning then into a downtrend for the stock. But as long as it continues to stay above the mid keltner when it does pull back, then it will continue to be in an uptrend and thus, will eventually break through that $44 resistance point. Top of the keltner 2.5 setting is currently at $44.77 – so if it does get to the top keltner, then it could easily get to $45 before it pulls back again to test that mid keltner area again to see if it holds there again (like it did today). Here’s the chart I’m looking at:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SAP.TO&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p25885448469
Also, it’s bought as a defensive stock too – so when the overall markets decline, SAP is usually one that goes up – along with the other defensive stocks too like SC.TO, ENB.TO, RCI/B.TO, T.to, BCE.TO, etc. So if the markets right now are going into corrective mode for the next 2 months or so, then SAP should be bought up as a defensive play – and for its dividend (IF it has one that is).
Its next resistance level after $44 is at $45 (the top keltner on the WEEKLY chart) – top of kelt on the WEEKLY chart is currently showing as $45.15. Next resistance after that is at $46 and then at $47 and then its yearly high at $48.
Hope this helps KC
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 2:12 am
Hi Wendy,
Yes I remember you going to the conference last year – you had sent a post on here asking if I were there too as you had heard while there, that I WAS there too
Sadly though, it wasn’t me whom was there 
I remember our posts on that 
As for this year – no, I don’t think I’ll go this year – maybe ne year though I will as I think it’d be a fun thing to do!! I’d probably learn a lot too!!
Thank you so much Wendy for that info re Florida homes and taxes. Maybe my uncle has that Homestead Exemption – I’m not sure though – I do know that he LOOOOVES it there though and prefers the people there much more there than he does here! He says they will give you their clothes off their backs to help out their neighbours – and that here, that is rare he says. He was born and raised in Toronto (with my Mom) – so he is a true Torontonian (plus a retired airline Captain too – so has travelled extensively his entire adult life) – yet his favourite place to live is in the States
My Aunt doesn’t feel the same LOL – she can’t wait to come home this May – as she feels EVERY May!! – poor lady 
ah well.
Ok, thanks again Wendy – I appreciate you giving me that info
Bye for now
Eve