ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Thursday April 5th
U.S. equity index futures are lower again this morning. S&P 500 futures are down 4 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to growing concerns about European sovereign debt. The yield on Spanish and Italian debt continues to move higher.
Index futures improved slightly following release of the Challenger Gray & Christmas report on employee layoffs. Layoffs in March fell to 37,800, down 27% from February and down 9% from March last year.
Index futures recovered slightly following release of the weekly initial jobless claims report. Initial jobless claims slipped last week to 357,000 from 359,000 last week.
Canada added a surprising number of people to the employment roll in March. Consensus was a gain of 10,000. Actual was a gain of 82,300. Consensus for the March Unemployment Rate was unchanged at 7.4% from February. Actual was a drop of 0.2% to 7.2%. The Canadian Dollar moved higher on the news.
The Bank of England maintained its overnight lending rate at 0.5%.
Cenovus Energy (CVE $34.34) is expected to open higher after CIBC World Markets upgraded the stock from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform.
Target added$0.48 to $58.30 after raising guidance for first quarter earnings.
Technical Watch
Cenovus Energy (NYSE:CVE;TSE:CVE) – $34.34 is expected to open higher after CIBC World Market upgraded the stock from Sector Perform to Sector Outperform. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades below its 20 and 50 day moving averages and fell below its 200 day moving average yesterday. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index has been negative since mid-February. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Preferred strategy is to reduce positions on strength to its 50 day moving average at $37.22.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00112.png "clip_image001[1]")
Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) – 58.30 added 0.8% after the company raised guidance for first quarter earnings. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the beginning of January. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of May. However, short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock closer to its 50 day moving averages at $55.14.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00212.png "clip_image002[1]")
Interesting Charts
Warning sign on major U.S. equity indices have appeared. The S&P 500 Index closed at its 20 day moving average at 1399.53 (Actually slightly below). Short term momentum indicators are showing early signs of rolling over from an overbought level.
A stronger warning came from the Dow Jones Industrial Average. It broke a rising wedge pattern and closed below its 20 day moving average at 13,138.49. A move below short term support at 13,002.77 will trigger additional technical selling.
The NASDAQ Composite Index also is flashing a warning sign. It recovered to close just above its 20 day moving average at 3,066.49. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has started to turn down. Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels.
The short term head and shoulders pattern by the TSX Composite Index continues to evolve. Strength relative to the S&P 500 remains negative.
Weekly Review of Select Sector SPDRs
Technology
· Intermediate trend is up. Its intermediate trend line was tested yesterday.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving average and is testing its 20 day MA.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are irrelevant as long as the uptrend line remains intact.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Materials
· Intermediate trend is down. Support is at $35.66 and resistance is at $37.83.
· Trades above its 200 day moving average, but fell below its 50 and 200 day moving average yesterday.
· Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
· Seasonal influences are positive.
Consumer Discretionary
· Intermediate trend is up. Resistance may be forming at $45.56. Its uptrend line was tested yesterday.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought and showing signs of rolling over. However, indicators are not relevant as long as the uptrend line remains intact.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving average, but tested its 20 day MA yesterday
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Industrials
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $35.79 and resistance is at $38.11.
· Trades above its 200 day moving average, but tested its 50 day moving average and fell below its 20 day moving average yesterday.
· Short term momentum indicators continue to trend down.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative
Energy
· Intermediate trend is down. Resistance is at $76.21 and $75.47.
· Trades above its 200 day moving average, but remains below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are trending down and already are oversold.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
· Seasonal influences are positive
Financials
· Intermediate trend is up. Resistance has formed at $16.01. Its uptrend line was tested yesterday.
· Trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages, but fell below its 20 day moving average yesterday.
· Short term momentum indicators have rolled over from overbought levels, but are not relevant until after the uptrend line is broken.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is turning negative.
Consumer Staples
· Intermediate trend is up. The uptrend line remains intact.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are not relevant until the uptrend line is broken.
· Trades above its20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index is turning positive.
Health Care
· Intermediate trend is up. Its intermediate uptrend line remains intact.
· Trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are overbought, but are irrelevant as long as the uptrend line remains intact.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has turned positive.
Utilities
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $33.83 and resistance is at $35.94.
· Trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages
· Short term momentum indicators are trending higher.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 is turning positive.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Shoppers Drug Mart Corporation (TSE:SC) Seasonal Chart
FP Trading Desk Headlines
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “These sectors will outperform when bond yields rise”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/04/these-sectors-will-outperform-when-bond-yields-rise/
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “TSX slumping or slipping against the S&P 500 Index”. Following is a link to the report:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/04/tsx-slumping-or-slipping-against-sp-500/
Adrienne Toghraie’s “Trader’s Coach” Column
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Conditioned Rituals for Trading
By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Success Coach
Conditioned rituals give our neurology the message that it is time to focus on a specific activity. Rituals assist us in all areas of our lives. A simple overview of rituals in various professions might look like:
· A pilot checks his aircraft and turns on switches and buttons before he is ready
to take flight
· A surgeon checks out his plan of action before an operation, puts on his medical
garb, washes his hands and makes sure his instruments are all in order
· A lawyer goes over the key points of his case, gives a reassuring nod to his client,
stands when the judge comes into the room and then listens to the words of what is
about to take place
· A performer and sportsman warms up his muscles before the actual performance
· A trader in the markets goes over his rules, turns on the computer and then begins to
look for opportunity
Each individual may have more specific rituals to get ready for positive actions in the day. For example in the case of a trader:
· Meditate
· Repeat a mantra of one positive affirmation such as: “Each day I am more consistent in my trading.”
· Eat a protein breakfast
· Do a short routine of exercise
· Read what is going on in the world
· Go over the rules of his strategy
· Do a repetition of a mental rehearsal in which he sees himself taking action on an
opportunity in the appropriate way for his pre-determined strategy
Unfortunately, there are unwanted rituals that a trader can create that are harmful to his progress as a trader. These rituals are a result of bad habits that take away energy and focus such as:
· Eating simple carbohydrates, smoking, drugs and generally not taking care of his health
· Negative pictures that lead to negative emotions, i.e., seeing losses that can result from taking risk
· A stressful environment that takes away from focus
· Negative experiences from the past that interfere with good performance
If a trader does not reap the profits that a strategy promises to give if he follows his rules, then he should consider designing a consistent ritual that will support positive results. He can either follow the positive ritual that I have structured above, ask other successful traders for advice about what they do, or design one that fits his personality. Once a trader has done this, he needs to anchor the past, present and future.
Past
See each of the past events of your life with a positive outcome.
Future
See yourself reaping the rewards of following your strategy.
Present
See yourself repeatedly going through the new ritual that you have embraced until you feel uncomfortable with any other routine.
Conclusion
When a trader adapts, follows a routine, and makes it a ritual for taking positive action, he creates an atmosphere for a good outcome for receiving profits. If you want to improve on your profits, add to your trading ritual until it is perfect for exceptional trading results.
New Free Weekly Newsletter
More Articles by Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Coach
Sign Up at – www.TradingOnTarget.com
INVESTMENT COMMENTARY
Thursday, April 5, 2012
Our latest issue of CastleMoore Investment News is out and its one of most chalked full issues, with some killer articles that will get you thinking. To receive your bi-monthly copy, please sign up at http://www.castlemoore.com/investorcentre/signup.php. We will send out your copy quickly.
TOP ASSET CLASSES AND SECTORS
CHARTS of the WEEK
Bonds
US Federal Reserve comments (minutes) left the impression that QE III is not coming, and hence Operation Twist will simply expire in June. Rates have the potential to back up to 2.8% on the 10Year before you may get a brand new buy signal. We have tightened up the stops on what has been a good bond run for clients. We are excited that we may get a great buying opportunity down the road as long rates north of 3% today would not be constructive for the economy, especially now in Canada
TSX Composite
This chart, which does not reflect yesterday`s TSX close at 12,179, is revealing that the index in danger of testing the 11,500 level. We know the rotation into the pro-cyclical sectors – industrials, energy, materials and technology – did not occur as expected by market participants to date, and much of the reason for the weakness. At present we have very little TSX client exposure.
S&P 500
The S&P too is flashing some warnings, although the US market has had a far better run than the TSX over the last 4 months. A break below 1398 (it closed yesterday bang on the 20d MA – blue line area- at 1398), should see some support at 1370, the 50d MA, then at the previous low in early March at 1342.
Gold
Again for full disclosure we still don’t own any gold. We have been patiently waiting since last August, our sell date for what was a very significant position in client portfolios. We are now undertaking position considerations for gold across all portfolio types (please request our Risk Reward Portfolio Matrix if you want to know more) with predetermined buy and buy add levels, as well as risk management levels (stop losses). All risk management levels are known by CastleMoore before we enter any position.
If you like to receive bi-monthly newsletter, know more about our model portfolios or access an audio file of our investment philosophy, “Modern Financial Fiascos”, click on the link
http://www.castlemoore.com/investorcentre/signup.php.
CastleMoore Inc. uses a proprietary Risk/Reward Matrix that places clients with minimum portfolios of $500,000 within one of 12 discretionary portfolios based on risk tolerance, investment objectives, income, net worth and investing experience. For more information on our methodology please contact us.
CastleMoore Inc.
Buy, Hold…and Know When to Sell
This commentary is not to be considered as offering investment advice on any particular security or market. Please consult a professional or if you invest on your own do your homework and get a good plan, before risking any of your hard earned money. The information provided in CastleMoore Investment Commentary or News, a publication for clients and friends of CastleMoore Inc., is intended to provide a broad look at investing wisdom, and in particular, investment methodologies or techniques. We avoid recommending specific securities due to the inherent risk any one security poses to ones’ overall investment success. Our advice to our clients is based on their risk tolerance, investment objectives, previous market experience, net worth and current income. Please contact CastleMoore Inc. if you require further clarification on this disclaimer.
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC April 4th 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: CVE, TGT
April 5th, 2012 at 8:59 am
Interesting post on Goldman Sachs:
That’s right folks – Goldman Sach’s Chief Forecaster, David Kostin latest monthly chartbook has a 3-month target for the S&P 500 at 1,275 (down 9%) and a 12-month target of 1,250.
I don’t agree with the longer-term forecast as I think inflation will kick in by then and we’ll be off to the races (in price, not value) but that 90-day target is right on the money. I know you may be saying to yourself: “Say, didn’t Goldman just tell us last month to BUYBUYBUY?”
Of course they did. If you don’t BUYBUYBUY, who were they going to SELLSELLSELL to. See those S&P calls at the bottom – Nove 30th: “SELL Internationa Sales Basket,” January 9th: “SELL S&P 500″ – that’s what GS tells their insiders – if you somehow got a slightly different impression of what they were saying from the MSM or ex-GS alumni Jim Cramer or any of the 300 stooges on CNBC – you must have simply misunderstood.
Doesn’t Cramer sound like one of those hosts on the Home Shopping Network when they get stuck trying to sell an item that isn’t moving? Clearly the Banksters did not expect that their Pavlovian attempt to train retail investors to buy every dip would wear off so quickly and this is why we “Sold into the Excitement” last week, rather than waiting for the charts to tell us what the Fundamentals were whispering in February, when we made our plan to “Sell in March and Go Away”. In fact, the title of my Friday post was the last in my series of warnings: “March Goes Out Like a Lamb (to the Slaugher).”
April 5th, 2012 at 9:36 am
Hi Ron/AB. As an FYI, Canaccord has a BUY and a $10 target on LIM.to. I like Canaccord because they cover the smaller cap, but they tend to be far too bullish. They also will recommend holding stocks with a lower price target than what it’s trading at…go figure.
April 5th, 2012 at 9:50 am
SINA Saga begins to play out – @ 9:52 an
OK on the open SINA is 62.48 up 1.13 —- UP ABOUT 2% on the day (22 minutes)
The April Wk 1 Calls are 2.45/2.63 up .79 —- UP ABOUT 47%
The April Wk 1 62.5 Calls are .60 / .70 up .30 —– UP ABOUT 100%
The April Wk1 65 Calls are .05 / .06 – NO CHANGE –
So as I was mentioning last night, sometimes it is a better “bet”
to go with deep in the money options, especially when there is NO TIME LEFT
The traders who had the guts to do that have cashed out already/
Those who went for the feal cheapos – the 65′s are down on their luck
right now – still waiting for that moon – shot. They do have until 4 pm though.
April 5th, 2012 at 9:55 am
Eve,
RE above, can you maybe screen capture the whole SINA chain
now, for April WK1, and then do it again at the close.
And compare the two in detail afterwards…. this will
give you a good feel for what happens…
OK… the 65′s are .06/ .10 up three cents….
So maybe they will get to that .25 gain today!!!?
April 5th, 2012 at 10:01 am
Hi Michael,
Thanks for update from Canaccord. I added LIM to my watch list a few weeks ago and yesterday I noticed early buy signals forming but are not confirmed yet. I’ll be watching closely.
April 5th, 2012 at 10:15 am
Markets not too interesting for trading in here for me.
However, I did add a small position in my RRSP of XHY, US corporate junk bond in past few days as some dividends came in.
It is getting harder and harder to find high yield stocks, so I decided to add this ETF.
As a rule I do not own ETFs in my RRSP, but I have been testing this one for a couple of years in my Margin account. It will bounce around with the equity markets as it is corporate, so not super steady, but the yield is good and steady.
I need to secure the diversification of cash flow in my RRSP… it is hedge to the CAD so no problems there.
I have also owned CHB in my margin account for the same time as XHY. Both do the same thing… but I like to have more than one name in one sector just in case I happen pick the runt of the litter (Murphy’s Law)…. I will add CHB ASAP as cash flow permits.
I am not planning huge positions here, just as a yield enhancer… maximum 2.5% each name…eventually.
Not much cap gain here, that’s why I prefer stocks (mergers, take outs and general growth), however as I noted above, really hard to keep my yield UP these days.
April 5th, 2012 at 10:17 am
Oh by the way, I hold no bonds in my RRSP, these would be the only ones I would hold, as per good cash flow.
April 5th, 2012 at 10:18 am
When one sees the actual manipulators, one wonders how we simple morons have a chance :
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/meet-people-bringing-you-currency-manipulation-daily-basis
April 5th, 2012 at 10:21 am
Oil and related trades,
Be nimble today, as the day after large storage numbers are reported, oil drops big time, the day after. The day after is today, so just do not dig in the cleats.
April 5th, 2012 at 10:53 am
Hi Canuck2004
Do you hold ATP.to, PGF.to and VNR.to in your RRSP and would you be adding to these names. I am starting to follow your stategy and accumulate high dividend stocks in RRSP. Will be retiring in 10 years and want to have steady cash flow. I tried to trade more short term, but working 10 hour days and trading is to stressful. I really like your approach. Thanks.
April 5th, 2012 at 10:58 am
Canuck2004:
Have you ever looked at FAP.TO?(FAX amex)
It’s mostly slow and steady; 8% yield at this time;
likely some complications with dividend reporting because it’s Asian.
Occasionally a scarey dip will come out of nowhere;
the most recent being last fall to $6.33
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FAP.TO&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p48850920172
April 5th, 2012 at 11:02 am
As a US citizen and Canadian resident, I have just become aware of the onerous PFIC rules that make it inadvisable to own non-US ETF or Mutual funds. Can someone point me toward non-PFIC options for investments not at risk of US-Can currency risks? I think EWC, CNDA and EEM all work, but does anyone know for sure? …any others?
April 5th, 2012 at 11:16 am
canuck2004
Do you hold any CEF’s in your portfolio?
April 5th, 2012 at 11:17 am
Re: Miners
Nice bounce on several of the miners today. Many are in a bottoming pattern but are volatile.
April 5th, 2012 at 11:20 am
Re: Miners
I should say “may” be in a bottoming pattern. Many at short term resistance already. Caution needed.
April 5th, 2012 at 11:30 am
Hi Rol lew,
Ya, see what I mean about SINA?? LOL – it isn’t though the “traders” that do this (as in, the little trader guy) – it’s some BIG institutional people who must do this because this kind of thing in SINA happens EVERY week with SINA weekly options expiration – and then it happens too with the monthly expiration. It’s one of the best stocks I know that you can tell so clearly where it might go to in price by Friday after seeing what it is doing from Mon to Wed in price and then looking at what the volume is showing at the options strike prices for that week – and usually on Mon to Wed, it will be LOWER than what occurs on the Friday – and by the Friday, the price ends the day at around a strike price point BUT throughout the day, it can go up to the next highest strike point to just touch it there or go over that price and then fall back down again and end the day at the lower strike price where the highest volume had been on Wednesday type of thing.
So, yesterday, the vol at $65 was 358 and at $62.50, it was 540. Today, the vol at $65 is only 37 and at $62.50, its 224. BUT, it still might try and get up to that $65 strike price anyway (which will have those calls then gaining today on the day) and will then most likely end the day at around $62.50 to $63 area. SINA does this EVERY week – that’s why I say it is HIGHLY manipulated!! And it isn’t the little trader guy doing that – it’s the big guy with the HFT robocomputers that do this! Watch it weekly too and see if you find it acting this way each week (while looking daily at the volume on options strike prices).
That’s why those traders yesterday on yahoo finance were saying they see this going on every week and were expecting the price today to go to $65 as that was where the highest volume was for calls at that point in time – but by closing on the day, the highest volume had moved down to the $62.50 strike price. Interesting hey Rol??
Yes, I will take a screen shot of yesterday’s option chain as I still have that window open on my computer – and then i’ll compare it to today’s chain at end of the day.
Thanks Rol
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 11:32 am
#9.
I should have said “sometimes,” in my statement.
April 5th, 2012 at 11:39 am
Hi Ray-Kitchener,
Thank you so much for posting that info from GS!! Did you find that right on their own website? (I haven’t checked their site to “look” for it – so that’s why I’m asking).
Thanks Ray
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 11:49 am
# 10-DKW
Yep, I own these in my RRSP and I would add if I needed to.
Again I’m a big believer in accumulating a position rather than buying a big chunk at one time. Also keeping my positions rather small, quite easy these days with low trading costs, keeping lots of different positions at 2.5% of the total portfolio is better than 5% for an RRSP.
I also keep both my accounts with the trading arms of big banks, safer that way.
Right now for me, I can’t buy more of ATP as I am overweight as per recent merger… same story with PGF.
For me VNR I would add in here since I have a smaller position…long term fine and anytime I can buy a company with a monopoly in its space I never hesitate. This is not a trading stock, accumulate over time, try to average down your cost. Long term it tends to travel between 13 and 16 most of the time… very low beta as a rule….Dividend is quite secure, unless something new comes out of the woodwork… one can never be 100% sure, so a broad diversification and keeping positions small keeps one safe and one does not have to watch it everyday.
# 11-Irwin-nope.
#13-Wayne-nope, don’t like funds or managed products; one bitten twice shy…don’t even like ETFs in RRSP, but have bought a small bite recently…reluctantly…see above.
April 5th, 2012 at 11:50 am
PS Rol lew,
The person who posted that yesterday on yahoo finance saying it is being sold today (yesterday) so it can gop to $65 tomorrow (today) – he wrote this earlier today:
RT @kevinzhang $SINA YEAH, good start!>>like I said, we re headed to 65+to collect on those options..and leave 60 puts worthles! Seen it B-4
——————————————————————–
Yup, I’ve seen it before too – every week in fact – close to 90% of the time I’d say, it happens this way. Soooo highly manipulated!!!
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 11:54 am
Eve: Picked it up from Phil’s Stock World. Typical Goldman Sucks, I mean Sacs.
April 5th, 2012 at 11:59 am
Rol lew,
So yesterday, the $62.50 PUTS had the highest volume and were going for $1.47 in price (vol of 224) – and today the PUTS at that strike price are down to 18 cents (vol of 120 – still the highest vol of all the strike prices).
So, selling the puts YESTERDAY at that strike price- would that mean you collect that money of $1.47 per contract – and then today, they expire almost worthless such that anyone having sold the put yesterday at that price would then just get to keep that money?? Is that how that would work to profit from that strategy yesterday that was discussed on yahoo finance?? did I get that correct Rol lew in how that would work in order to make the profit on the PUTS AND the calls for today (from yesterday)??
If I didn’t get that right, can you let me know please where I went wrong and what exactly would happen today given that strategy from yesterday??
Thank you Rol
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 12:02 pm
PS Rol lew,
Re my post 22:
Here’s that strategy again from yesterday (taken from yahoo finance):
game is; buy $sina long, sell puts for premium, buy calls cheap, turn on HFT computer, collect on: calls, longs, keep $ from worthless puts
Thanks Rol
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 12:04 pm
Hi Ray-Kitchener,
Ohh from phil’s stockworld – I like him
he’s really good at what he does 
Thanks Ray for letting me know! I’ll check there for it too then
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Oh Rol lew,
One other question if I may please:
So, IF SINA got to its strike price by say 10 am today (or on any Friday) (from the strike price that was showing yesterday as the one where it seemed the SINA price would go to – so, $62.50), would that be good enough to get what was wanted from the calls and puts?? Like, would going there by 10 am mean that it “could” then fall down to say $60 and then end the day at say $62 and still have the same effect wanted for those calls and puts at that $62.50 strike price in profit gains? OR, would it need to CLOSE the day AT that strike price in order to guarantee getting the profit wanted from doing that strategy of yesterday with that $62.50 strike price in mind as a goal? What if it closes at $61 today?? Would that strategy still work for the profits for selling puts yesterday and buying calls at that $62.50 strike??
I ask because I’m never sure IF a stock MUST close the day AT the strike price it is showing with the highest volume OR if simply GOING to that strike price during the day but then closing the day somewhere else would still be ok to do and still get what was wanted from the calls and puts from the day before OR from earlier in the week! So, will you please let me know Rol lew?? Thank you!
Thanks Rol so much for helping me with this
I really appreciate it!! 
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 12:25 pm
Canuck, DKW
HSE
Took a small position in Husky Energy (4.8%) div. Holding for long term. May not be bottom yet, but good price from recent highs.
April 5th, 2012 at 12:31 pm
#26-Ric
Have traded it many times before, good trading stock.
O&G is a late cycle play…and for me, in RRSP, I would prefer some of the old income trust names that pay a higher yield.
April 5th, 2012 at 12:37 pm
Canuck
Can you list some of these old income trust names. Can you also repost the cyclical chart you referred to in the past.
Thanks
April 5th, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Ric, Canuck
Just wondering if you own or have owned any DH.to Davis Henderson. Pays a 6.62 % dividend. I was thinking of slowing accumulating on price weakness. Any thoughts.
Thanks
April 5th, 2012 at 12:48 pm
DH
Good dividend, but is it sustainable? Maybe good for a year or two. Printing checks in the internet and on line banking is losing market share. Growth not there. If buying I would not buy at these high prices, wait for lower price. Discussions below.
http://www.stockchase.com/Company-sl–slq-ID-slv-Davis—slplussl—Henderson.php
April 5th, 2012 at 12:52 pm
Just purchased a position in EPV (Ultra short Europe index)… with a stop at $37.89 and I intend to hold. Comments?
April 5th, 2012 at 1:00 pm
Thanks Ric, I will stay away from this one.
April 5th, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Rol Lew,
Interesting analysis on SINA by you along with Eve.
Is it time to own G or ABX by selling puts?
If so which month you would go for? Apr/May/July?
For G.TO I was looking at $40 put @ .88 apr
I don’t mind owning it below 40
Thanks.
April 5th, 2012 at 1:06 pm
#29-DKW-
I have never owned DH, as it is a dying business… yes I know they have moved on to broaden their business model… but I don’t feel comfortable with it in an RRSP.
In RRSP, I avoid mutual funds; REITs that are focussed on hotel, retirement, LTC; avoid stocks in retaurants, retail, clothing, etc.; high beta stocks; low yield stocks unless the potential is there for dividend increases and foreign stocks (ADRs), etc. This is from experience in these sectors… NOT going back, EVER, once bitten twice shy.
I like to keep to the old 30% foreign ownership rule, and this for me is USA only. I don’t know what going on stock wise outside NA, so no point buying outside my knowledge base…. this is a Buffet principle anyway, buy what you know.
My mantra is buy quality names with a growing dividend yield and keep positions small, broad diversification will protect your cash flow and keep it steady. A lesson learned the hard way…lol
I do like pipelines best as they have a solid business model that has nothing to do with the fluctuating price of O&G, they just just moved it from here to there…. on long term contracts like 20 to 30 years, as Buffet once said, nothing beats owning a toll bridge; I like Utilities, larger caps over small caps; household names like JNJ-N (don’t own it tho); low beta over high beta; potential for growing yield and cap appreciation, etc. you get the idea.
However, Utilities do not like rising interest rates and we are at the bottom of a 30 yield collapse in rates…at this point, rates have nowhere else to go but UP, so I would NOT be aggressive in this sector…. should have bought them a few years ago when nobody wanted them. I’m now taking profits in this sector.
For me RRSP is for pension income supplement…and I don’t want to have to raid the RRSP monthly, but if I do, it would be ideal to take half the cash flow so I can reinvest the rest to keep the account growing.
It’s fairly simple really…. and it’s worked very well for me.
April 5th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
SINA Apr Wk1
Eve,
Over the last 5 days the 65′s declined from 3.80 to .02 today
Today’s high looks like .11, with yesterday’s low ~ ~ 0.06
Over the last 5 days the 62.5′s declined from 5.60 to .35 today
BUT today’s high was .93 Yesterday’s low ~ ~ 0.29
Over the last 5 days the 60′s declined from 6.15 to .2.77 today
with today’s hi being 3.20 & yesterday’s low = 1.45
So, to me, it looks like it is not all that easy to have made
money this week by being long these calls. BUT your point
is still well illustrated today – the weeklies tend to go UP
on opex day, but I am seeing the ITM calls do this moreso.
They really made out like bandits today, the 60′s returned 100% overnight.
The 62.5′s also over 100% day / day(now off those highs).
How about the Apr Wk1 Puts, over the last 6 days?
The 60′s declined from .40 to .03
The 62.5′s declined from 1.10 to .49
The 65′s gained, 2.10 to 2.77
But with all three of them, if you were nimble,
you could have made some money day/day.
BUT overall, given that SINA is in a downtrend,
the weekly puts were disappointing – I would guess
that the monthly puts fared far better.
April 5th, 2012 at 1:12 pm
# 28-Ric
Old income trust names you can find easy enough by Googling…
Sector Rotation Model:
There are several versions out there, but I like this one best so far as it is very easy to read and figure out.Some versions differ somewaht as well… Switch back and forth between Graphic to Table view (top left).
http://marketscalpel.com/approach/rotation/sectorRotationConventionGraphic.htm
April 5th, 2012 at 1:29 pm
Hi Rol lew,
Yes but by selling a put yesterday at that $62.50 strike price, then you would collect that price for a contract – right?? If right, then TODAY, it would NEED to go to $62.50 or OVER that so that you could KEEP the premium paid to you yesterday AND NOT have the stock “PUT” to you today due to it being AT or ABOVE $62.50 – right?? Is that right Rol?
I know it sounds ballsy – BUT, watch this stock every week and look at the options on it every day – you’ll see too that it performs this way every week for the Fri options expir day for the weeklies! That’s why those traders yesterday, posted that this is what is going to happen with SINA for the end of week options expiration – but they were thinking it would go to $65 today – instead, the higher volume yesterday by day’s closing, was showing at $62.50.
So question then: it needs to close around that price or higher ($62.50) in order to not get put the stock IF you sold puts yesterday at $62.50 for expiration TODAY – right??
I look forward to your response on this
Thanks Rol
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 1:30 pm
#36
Thanks for the link to the sector rotation. What part of the cycle are we in? I am thinking late recession. Thanks
April 5th, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Canuck
Sector rotation
Do you believe we are in the bottom of the utilities/telecoms and moving into financials/consumer services/consumer goods?
Thanks
April 5th, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Hi gmsa,
Thank you – it wasn’t my or Rol’s strategy thouigh – it was discussed yesterday on the yahoo finance board – so i posted the strategy yesterday to ask rol for his thoughts on that strategy AND how to gain from it AND what kind of profits could be made? I reposted that strategy today to Rol in post 23 (taken from yesterday’s yahoo finance board under “market pulse”). SINA does this kind of thing ALL the time!! It does it every week for the WEEKLY options expiration – and then it does this every month for the MONTHLY options expiration too! It does it about 90% of the time. So if you can figure out each week and each month WHERE the stock will get pinned to each week/ month for the weekly and monthly options expir days, then you can make great returns by using the strategy that was posted yesterday on yahoo finance. And those traders too stated they see this happen all the time with SINA – and I see it happen all the time with it too! It’s uncanny really how it works this way every week!!
Watch SINA for today – it will most likely close right AT $62.50 OR VERY close to it! Right now, it’s being kept very close to that $62.50 price (has been all day for the most part – been kept at not too far away I mean from that price which is the options strike price yesterday that had the highest volume for BOTH calls and puts – right now it’s at $62.42 LOL).
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 1:44 pm
# 38- DKW
Yep, right on…. we are in: “Late Recession-Early Expansion” area… the two will always be muddled together as the economy tries to recover late in a still active recession, both problem and solution will be present at the same time. By the time it is clear that we are in an expansion, the opportunity to apply the formula will be lost. Like Buffet says, if you wait for the robin to show up to announce the Spring, it will be too late.
As a rule, Financials always lead on the way DOWN as they are alway guilty of funding the excess… and lead on the way UP as they also fund the expansion and earnings improve.
The US Fed will always raise interest rates as the economy expands and overheats causing an “Inverted Yield Curve” which we saw in 2007-0; this is applying the “brakes”; and will always cut interest rates in the recession to stimulate an expansion, and cause a “steep Yield Curve”. like presently; this is applying the “gas”.
The business cycle will follow this US Fed rate manipulation. Canada always follow the US, we have no choice in the matter as it is our biggest customer… if our BOC tries to do something different, we will suffer and they will have to back-track. Never fails.
April 5th, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Eve / Tony,
Would really appreciate your thoughts on my post #19 if you have a chance please. I’d love to buy in today, but I’m a little uncertain.
Thanks,
KC
April 5th, 2012 at 1:46 pm
sorry,correction above @ 2007-8.
April 5th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Hi KC,
I don’t see any post today from you on the board – except for the one you just posted at 42. The post 19 from today is showing as “canuck2004′s” post. So, what is it you’re wanting to know KC – please re post?!
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 2:09 pm
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/bank-downgrade-forward-calendar
April 5th, 2012 at 2:13 pm
Eve,
It seems to be the xray machine
“KC Says: Your comment is awaiting moderation.”
April 5th, 2012 at 11:49 am
Good morning,
Eve, Canuck, Tony, Ron/AB:
What do you folks think about a buy on SPXU or similar inverse indicies(Russell, Nasdaq, tsx as well) today and hold into next week? Do you see any risk of those going against me next week? If I do decide to buy today, where should I look to get out at the top, if they do work in my favor?
Thanks,
KC
April 5th, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Eve,
Re. your comments from yesterday 1) Thank you immensely! and 2) I will email you and forward you our few emails exchanges from last year.
KC
April 5th, 2012 at 2:33 pm
KC,
I have been watching anxiously for an inverse S&P play…It is so close but not quite there yet. However, things may change nearer the close for today. I’ll wait to see what the close looks like.
Eve and I discussed the S$P yesterday with targets and charts, etc. Please see yesterday’s posts.
April 5th, 2012 at 2:38 pm
#38 I was just watching BNN and one of the analysts said that Technology and Industrials are the area’s to be investing in. Which is the early expansion part of the rotation model. I just started looking after my portfolio 2 years ago. Got tired of our investment advisor, seemed like after 20 years of investing we were not getting further ahead. It has been quite a learning experience. This rotation model is really going to help. I find that I was getting into the stocks when the media is hyping them up, then they fall, I need to start looking ahead to get in before the crowd. I need to follow the sayings of Buffet. When everyone is in fear of a sector buy and when they are overly bullish sell. DKW
April 5th, 2012 at 2:39 pm
Eve, Michael, Ray, anyone..
I know there is a positive market bias going into the long weekend. This doesn’t necessarily mean it goes up but could mean (in the current situation) that the downside is muted. Does anyone have any statistics on the market for the Monday after the long w/e?
April 5th, 2012 at 2:47 pm
Hi KC,
re post 47:
Ok – just forwarding 1 email to me that I sent to you last year would be enough for me. And if you’d like, you can forward the emails that you wrote to me within this past year that you wrote about yesterday (the ones I haven’t seen though as I don’t know which email acct they’re in LOL).
As for buying an inverse ETF at the moment:
Let’s use SPXU as an example:
The risk of buying ANY bear ETF right now to hold into next week is what the employment report shows for tomorrow for the US. So, if say it’s a GOOD repoort, the markets may sell off further due to realizing further that a good report means no further QE is coming from the Fed due to the economy improving (this was why the markets sold off this week since the Fed minutes were released on Tuesday). Now IF the report is bad, then it “could” have the effect of causing the markets to go UP next week due to thinking “oh good!! more QE will be coming then in the future!” – OR it could sell down further due to it being a bad report – thus will be punished by selling off the markets. Same too if it’s a good report – it could go up OR sell off – going up because the good report will be rewarded by having the markets go up – sell off due to the reason i just stated.
So, for right now, it just cannot be known for sure which way the markets will go to next week due to 1) the employment report coming out tomorrow AND also to 2) earnings starting next week too! So, if earnings next week have many misses to start off with, then the markets will sell down.
And as for SPXU:
It has been in a downtrend for several months (due to the markets going up) and as of TODAY, it has gone up to just get to the mid keltner – and each time it has done this (as the SPX has come down and went straight to the mid keltner and then bounced up from there), it has then turned around and gone back down to the bottom keltner. So, until SPXU can get DECISIVELY ABOVE that mid keltner, then for now, it should be “assumed” that SPXU will just continue to go back down again for next week – which means the markets will be going up for next week. Same goes with other bear ETFs too!
So for right now, it is simply a wait and see for both the markets AND for the bear ETFs as we’ll first need to see what happens next week AFTER the employment report comes out tomorrow AND then must also see what happens AFTER companies start reporting earnings next week. Now what you “could” do if you wanted (if you didn’t WANT to “wait” for confirmations I mean of where the market will head next week), would be to buy a partial position in SPXU and then if it goes against you next week, then sell it quickly on Monday – OR you could buy the equivalent of the BULL ETF AND bear ETF on the SPX (taking a partial position in each) and then selling the one that doesn’t work on Monday and adding more then to the one that seems to be working. So, that’s something you “could” do IF you didn’t want to wait for confirmation on the markets.
Check out the posts written on where the SPX may go to in price point that were posted yesterday by Ron/AB, mick/nv, tony, and myself (and I think by gmsa and Michael too – but not sure if they both posted on this yesterday or not). Ron/AB and I wrote a couple of posts each on this – plus provided charts to look at too! mick/nv provided a chart too! So check out those posts from yesterday.
Here’s the chart for SPXU for today so you can see what I’m looking at:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPXU&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p77550423256
see how it’s just hanging there at that mid keltner level?? it’s “waiting” too to see what will happen next week too!
other bear ETF’s to look at might be TZA, FAZ, SDS, SDOW, and the VIX ETFs of: HVU.TO, VXX, TVIX, UVXY, and VXX.TO – these will all go up IF the markets sell off!
Hope this helps KC
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 2:52 pm
Hi Ron/AB,
post 50:
I personally do not have any such stats for that – sorry Ron
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 2:58 pm
# 49-DKW
Beware of the talking heads on BNN, most of them are just talking their book….takes a while to learn who to listen to. They are very few Industrials nad Technology names worth holding long term on the TSX….
Watch Nightly Business Report on PBS daily for USA comparison. I do and have for decades.
Read the Globe and Mail Business section daily as well, I have for decades.
April 5th, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Ron/AB
Re: #50
Read Equity Clock for today. There are some comments on that about 3/4 way thru.
http://www.equityclock.com/2012/04/05/stock-market-outlook-for-april-5-2012/
April 5th, 2012 at 3:07 pm
Has anyone noticed that the markets sold off quite a bit just before 2pm?
I have noticed this to occur on other occasions on the Friday before a long weekend and wonder if this might be when the pros head home or should I say off to the bar or perhaps to hop into their luxury vehicle and drive off to their expensive cottages!
If it is the pros taking off, it would seem their market view is negative.
April 5th, 2012 at 3:11 pm
SINA SAGA….. SINA SAGA…. Read all about it….
Eve “Yes but by selling a put yesterday at that $62.50 strike price, then you would collect that price for a contract – right?? If right, then TODAY, it would NEED to go to $62.50 or OVER that so that you could KEEP the premium paid to you yesterday AND NOT have the stock “PUT” to you today due to it being AT or ABOVE $62.50 – right?? Is that right?”
no – not required – sina is 61.80 right now – 2:57 pm
and the 62.5 puts are .70 right now
they could have been sold yesterday, anywhere from .73 to 1.82 (high) to 1.39
into the close at 4 pm yesterday. So you could have made money just by buying back the short puts at the open – somewhere between 1.15 and 0.19
Unfortunately, these creatures are not like stock – they move fast.
“Traders” do not generally wait for “expiration” to do anything, to them
that day just means, ah well, I cannot trade those ones any more.
“I know it sounds ballsy – BUT, watch this stock every week and look at the options on it every day – you’ll see too that it performs this way every week for the Fri options expir day for the weeklies! That’s why those traders yesterday, posted that this is what is going to happen with SINA for the end of week options expiration – but they were thinking it would go to $65 today – instead, the higher volume yesterday by day’s closing, was showing at $62.50.”
Yep – they showed balls of steel yesterday by guessing the 65′s – but if they are
still there, they lost on the calls. It looks like the chicken little deep in the money call traders won today. They are always the first ones to win, then if
we get a moon shot, the OTM traders win big,big, huge.
“So question then: it needs to close around that price or higher ($62.50) in order to not get put the stock IF you sold puts yesterday at $62.50 for expiration TODAY – right??”
Say you are a medium sized trader, with 500 contracts short, now why in the world
would you wait around to have the stock put to you for 500 * 100 * 62.5 = $3,125,000?
You won’t – that is not the game you are playing.
Sell the puts yesterday for 1.00 or better, and buy them back today for .50 or less, something like that, pocket the money 500 * 100 * .50 = $25,000 for an overnight hold.
That is the game they are playing.
April 5th, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Hi Eve,
Re #52 – Thanks anyways.
BTW Your reply to KC is so much better then mine!
One thing I am noticing with regard to SPXU and other bear ETFs is that although the price is near the mid-keltner, unlike the last time at the begining of March, the 4ma is just crossing the 9ma now while the price is already above the 18ma. This may indicate more support for the potential reversal. If it does pop on Monday, there is the CP resistance at 9.51 to watch for. I suspect we will test that.
April 5th, 2012 at 3:12 pm
Hi Jon V.,
I think your site Equity Clock may have been hacked by some site called “blogarama” – I say this because when I clicked to read your report today )clicked it just now), I got a “WARNING” pop up page from Google chrome telling me that page may have been hacked – and that if I continue to that page (of yours) to read it, that my computer may get infected with a virus. The warning states that blogarama has already been notified of this – but it didn’t state that YOU had been notified of this on Equity Clock – so I thought I would let you know about this! The warning states: WARNING: Something’s not right here! and it then goes on to tell you why it is not opening the Equity Clock report – for the reasons of the potential hacking etc. So, i thought you should know this!
Not sure if others have received the same message or not – but I got this through Google Chrome browser.
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Equity Clock
Just went on site with no problem, no warning. Also did so earlier today – no problem.
???
April 5th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
Hi Rol lew,
OHHHH ok – so THAT was the game!! AHH, SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO interesting!! WOW!! So cool too! So, what if they sold the puts yesterday at $62.50 AND bought the stock yesterday at $61 – and if say SINA closes TODAY “AT” $62.50 OR VERY close to there – would that mean that trader would have profited from SELLING the puts YESTERDAY “AND” from NOT having to buy them back today due to the stock closing right at $62.50 today by 4 pm??
(Plus then too, they’re UP in the stock price from buying yesterday at $61 and selling today anywhere up to the high of today of over $63).
Thanks Rol
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Hi Ron/AB,
re 57:
LOL – thanks Ron
I’m just very verbose is all 
as we ALL on here know 
re SPXU observation:
Ahh ok – interesting! i wasn’t even looking at that actually (at the 4/9/18) – just looking at where it is relative to the keltner vs. what happened when it got there in the past few months too! Here’s something else though too ron – is that in March when SPXU went up to $9.51 (it happened after that too when SPXU went up to $9.38), the 4 “looked” like it was just about the cross the 9 then too (right as it is showing today on the chart), yet it didn’t cross it as it came back down the very next day. So, that is currently where it is today too – so until the 4 crosses decisively ABOVE that 9, then it still is a wait and see at this point (in my opinion anyway). Here’s that chart that shows this of what I’m looking at:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPXU&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p72056114064
So, still a wait and see – do you concur Ron?
Thanks Ron
eve
April 5th, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Eve,
I was just looking at #22
when you sell the puts, you do not “get” the money right then – it’s not
yours just yet, because the trade is still open. You have to buy it back,
or have it expire worthless for you to “get” the money – to have & to hold.
All your gains are unrealized, until something happens to let you realize them.
With IB you can chart all the strikes, & see exactly what is happening
minute by minute. Do not bring a knife to a gunfight, ok.
I am sure other platforms do it too, but I do not know about them.
Hi There…. Does anybody here know of others???
=====================================
SINA 61.99 @ 3:42
65 call = worthless
62.5 call = .05
60 call = 1.85
60 put = .01
62.5 put = .70
65 put = 3.10
70 put = 8.11
18 minutes to expiration
April 5th, 2012 at 3:45 pm
Hi Eve,
I agree that it is still a wait and see. I think the odds are a little better this time and so one could take a small partial position if they wanted to be more aggressive. I say the odds are better because of where the price is relative to the 4/9/18 ma’s, the longer consolidation period as compared to last time (i.e. there was no real Darvis box present at the beg. of March, and last but not least, because there are positive divergences in the momentum indicators that weren’t there before. This chart is of the HSD.to but it shows the same thing:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HSD.TO&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p40716095406&a=261928405
April 5th, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Thanks for letting me know Eve.
Equity Clock has not been hacked, however, there was a link-back on the page to Blogarama, which has now been removed to avoid any issues. It appears that Google has red-flagged Blogarama, for whatever reason, hence the pop-up warning. Should be good now.
April 5th, 2012 at 3:51 pm
Hi Jon V.,
I just sent you an email of a picture of the warning box I got today from Google Chrome (I tried opening your letter 3 times and each time, I got that same warning page show up – so, I “print screened” the pic). That way, you’ll be able to see what I’m getting when I’m clicking on your letter link of today.
Thanks Jon
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 3:52 pm
Ron/AB: In 2011, there was very little change on the Monday from the Thursday close before Good Friday. The market did not stat to tank until June 1st. This year, who knows?
April 5th, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Rol Lew,
Take a look at FSLR. Just closed my Apr 23 put – bot it Monday – just sold for a very nice pop (.90 – 2.58).
April 5th, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Hi Jon V.,
Oh ok – sorry – I hadn’t read the board as I was typing that post for you – so, i hadn’t seen you had already posted a note for me on this – sorry about that
Thanks though for letting me know
Glad it has cleared up now
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Hi Rol lew,
Oh ok – is that how that works (in not receiving the money UNTIL it expires) – see, I didn’t know that as NO ONE on BNN who talks about getting a call or put premium has ever explained that – so, I always thought you got that money STRAIGHT AWAY when you sold the put! Thanks for clarifying that for me Rol
So, now that it closed today at $61.84 – does that mean if you had sold the puts yesterday at $62.50 strike for say $1.50 AND IF you DIDN’T buy those puts back TODAY at say 30 cents or so, that the person you sold the puts to could PUT the stock to you today for $62.50?? Thus, putting you in the hole now on the stock itself by 66 cents?? Is that right Rol?
BUT you’d still be ahead anyway by the premium you got yesterday of say $1.50 – so, you’d still be up in profit of $1.50 – .66 = 84 cents – is this correct Rol?
Thank you Rol
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 4:02 pm
PS Rol lew,
Last week for the weekly expiration, SINA on Wednesday was showing the highest volume on the CALLS at $65 – and on friday, the stock CLOSED at 4 pm RIGHT ON $65!! LOL – it went as low as $64.80 at around 340 pm – then bounced up and went to around $65.13 – and then closed RIGHT AT $65!! Can we say “manipulation” or what??
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Thanks Ray.
Surprise surprise, the S&P started to go lower right after the close. Monday could be interesting.
April 5th, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Hi Ron/AB,
Ah ok – yes I see what you’re saying – thanks too for the chart
I agree with you though in saying it is still safest to simply “wait” until it gets to ABOVE that mid keltner DECISIVELY – and $7.12 price on HSD would be a decisive move above the mid kelt in my opinion 
– so, I concur Ron 
Thanks Ron
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Hi KC,
Please have a look at Ron/AB’s post at 63. I concur with what Ron has written
(wrote a response to Ron at post 72).
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Hi Ron/AB,
What do you mean by saying the SPX started to go lower AFTER the close? How did you know this? You weren’t looking at the futures were you??
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Don F,
Thanks for #54. Just saw it now.
April 5th, 2012 at 4:24 pm
Hi Eve,
Yes, sorry I should be more specific. I was looking at the $SPX futures on forexpros.com.
April 5th, 2012 at 4:37 pm
Hi all, hope everyone is planning a lovely Easter weekend, bonnets and all. I wanted to ask if anyone heard any news on FM-t today, stock was up 6.9% on big volume and while visiting my local hardware store, the owner mentioned this and said some interest showing to buy it. Not sure where he heard this and I couldn’t find anything. I did buy some late afternoon so just curious? Any thoughts are appreciated. Of course then I think about what my new son-in-law said to me when believing tips, why not just stop the mail man and ask him?? At least I went to a hardware store owner.. Hniel/Kingston
April 5th, 2012 at 4:43 pm
Hi Ron/AB,
Oh ok – I was afraid that is what you were looking at LOL. On Fridays (as is true actually for every day of the week), after the markets close at 4 pm, the futures you see (on any site you’re looking at) are reflecting that which occurred TODAY on the markets – so, the SPX and DOW were down today – thus, the futures after 4 pm are down – the nasdaq was UP today – thus the nas futures are showing as UP. The futures don’t change over to the NEXT day’s trading (on Mons to thursdays) until around 430 pm to 445 pm. On Fridays, they don’t change at all – not until Sunday when they start trading again at 6 PM EST.
Now the futures market for tomorrow MAY be trading due to other markets globally being open tomorrow (Europe is closed – BUT Asia “may” be open – not sure though). So, what you’re seeing right now (up until around 430 pm to 445 pm today) in the futures for the DOW, SPX, and Nasdaq are simply just a reflection of what happened TODAY on the markets AND where they closed at today at 4 pm (Dow and SPX closed in the red and nas in the green). So if the futures ARE being traded globally into tomorrow, then you’ll see the new futures reflective of TOMORROW’s trades, taking place at around 430 pm to 445 pm today. IF the futures are NOT trading tomorrow and are now closed until Sunday night (same thing occurs on Fridays after the market close at 4 pm), then the level you’re seeing today at say 405 PM EST is going to simply remain the same AND is reflective of TODAY’s trading only (sorry, I’m repeating myself here
).
So, you can’t go by the futures UNTIL Sunday night of what will occur Monday
The US bond market is open tomorrow for trading – so, maybe the futures will be too! And if they are open tomorrow, then “often” but not always, the futures showing for a closed holiday in the US on the Friday, will carry over to the following Monday – such that whatever they do on the Friday while the US stock markets are closed, they CAN carry over to the Monday trading day of what will happen in the markets on monday – BUT this isn’t ALWAYS the way it goes though
as news over the weekend will of course affect the futures for Monday trading – and you’ll see this on Sunday night at around 6 pm EST.
Hope this helps Ron
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 4:48 pm
Hi Hniel,
Your hardware man was correct!! There was an article in some business magazine (can’t recall which mag though it was) that stated that FM is being looked at as a possible takeover candidate from 3 potential buyers – one in China, one from the U.S., and I think the other one was from the US too. but anyway, yes, that is why FM was up today!
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 5:00 pm
PS Ron/AB,
Futures ARE trading tomorrow (even though US markets are down) as I can see them trading right now on BNN. Right now, the DOW is up 5 points, the SPX up by .5 and Nasdaq are unchanged.
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 5:02 pm
PS Ron/AB,
Oops sorry – in my post 80 above – I meant to write “even though US markets are “closed” – NOT “down” LOL).
eve
April 5th, 2012 at 5:14 pm
Thanks Eve. You are so helpful to everyone. I know it’s a gamble but that’s the way I felt today. I was going to call you yesterday when I was in TO for a few hours (as I seem to recall you said you lived in TO) but didn’t know your number… I don’t like using lol or haha but how about ‘smile’ Cripes, that’s sad too. What about ??? sheesh, what would be good? Hniel/Kingston
April 5th, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Hi Hniel,
call me? LOL – that’s cute
Yes I’m in the Toronto area 
If you use a colon: : and then a bracket sign: ), you’ll make the smilie faces that I often have in my posts here. Using a semi colon: ; and then a bracket: ) will give you a wink face – so, : + ) gives you a smile of this:
and ; + ) gives you a wink of this: 
Glad to help Hniel
eve
April 5th, 2012 at 5:45 pm
NONO Eve, I’m not a smiley face guy either…what about grumpy faces? I’m kidding, I’m a happy person but have trouble doing ‘smiley faces’ GRRRR, yes that me.
Hniel/Kingston
April 5th, 2012 at 6:24 pm
Hi Eve,
Back from running errands.
Re #78
I was assumming that the after hours trading of futures was as a result of other global markets that are still open.
April 5th, 2012 at 6:45 pm
Hi Ron/AB,
No, the futures of the US exchanges of the DOW, Nasdaq, SPX, are traded 24/7 from 6 pm EST Sunday to Friday at 4 pm EST. Most of the global markets right now are closed (like Europe, Asia, etc.) (Asia will open later on tonight – Europe is closed for tomorrow). The takeaway though from what you wrote vs. what i wrote in response to your post was to just let you know that the futures you see trading on forexpros at like 405 pm EST or 410 PM EST are not reflective of what the markets will be doing the following day for the US exchanges – they, at that time of day, are only reflecting what occurred THAT DAY in the markets of the DOW, SPX, and Nasdaq etc. So, when you wrote just after 4 pm EST that the SPX just turned lower AFTER 4 pm (then told me that you were meaning the SPX futures had turned lower), I wrote to let you know that what you were looking at, at that time of day of just after 4 pm, are not anything to do with the markets for the next trading day (of Monday) and this is because the futures for the next trading day only show the reflection of what comes tomorrow, at around 430 pm to 445 PM EST. So, tomorrow for example, you will see the futures at 405 pm showing at some level (up or down) and that will be reflective of what happens tomorrow during the trading day (regular trading hours for the US exchanges) but in the FUTURES market (normally, it is reflective of what occurred that day on the markets themselves – but as the markets are closed tomorrow, then the futures showing at 405 pm tomorrow will be reflecting what occurs tomorrow in the FUTURES trading of the DOW, Nasdaq, and SPX).
So, just know that when you see the futures for the SPX at 405 pm or 410 pm type of thing on forexpros, those amounts you are seeing at that time of day are ONLY reflecting what occurred THAT day on the markets – they are not telling you what will be taking place tomorrow on the markets (you had written that the SPX turned down just after 4 pm and then stated something about what may then happen for Monday) – to see what may occur the NEXT day in the markets, you will need to wait until around 430 pm to 445 pm (or even 5 pm EST) and then look on forexpros again and see that what you’re seeing at that time of day ARE reflecting what IS to occur in TOMORROW’s trading market (of course though, things can change overnight too to the morning at 930 am opening) (but tomorrow being closed, then you’ll of course then be looking on Sunday at 6 pm to see the futures for Monday – and if tomorrow, the futures are showing green all day, then it may mean Monday will be an up day for the markets – barring any negative news that may come out over the weekend from say China or Europe).
Hope this clarfies it further Ron
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 6:47 pm
No worries Hniel
Just do whatever you yourself are comfortable and happy with 
Eve
April 5th, 2012 at 7:59 pm
Hniel/Eve,
fm.to they traded 3500 options today, 2300 contracts on the call side, and 1200 contracts on the put. 750contracts put for may at 17$
so there was more bullishness on the name then bearishness.
probably by sunday night we will know exactly who bought them out.
probably slava
April 5th, 2012 at 8:10 pm
Hi Eve,
Thanks for taking the time to clarify that for me in #78 and #86.
Have a great evening and long weekend
April 5th, 2012 at 8:40 pm
#9
Well, $WTIC went up today. What a dufus remark that I made, sorry if I caused any confusion. My error. (Not the first and certainly not the last!) I thought that oil would get to $97. It simly does not want to go down. Here is the problem, when day trading, it helps to know where the trend is however if you are execting oil to go in one direction, you are caught on your heels and swearing a great deal! Why is it that I like to swear but do not like to listen to others swear? I am glad I am the only one in the house while trading, just for that reason. I especially found Hniel’s remark the other day, “if anyone gives a flying ____” hilarious. I have not heard that for awhile.
Well, Happy Easter to those celebrating it. I am in Banff, Alberta for a ski weekend!
By the way Eve and Rol Lew, you might as well be speaking Greek when you are talking about those options regarding SINA. I am glad I have found a way to make some $$$ day trading oil, because it is really frightening of how little I know!
April 5th, 2012 at 8:41 pm
Hi Tony,
Thanks for the response on cco & alleviating my fears by saying you do not short.
Today after a long time I saw Joseph Schacter on BNN ( my recollection is he was always bullish on his sectors- oil & gas) who was bearish saying energy index can come down 20% and I remembered your post to Rami in the past saying CNQ can go down to 28.
CJ
If you have not watched “Market Call Tonight” for Apr 5/2012 then pls watch as some stocks we own is covered, cnq,tcw,energy index. FYI its predicting down side.
Rollew
Thanks for all the info on options for Sina. BTW where can I find a simulator?
Eve,
I do not follow sina. Rollew gave detailed answer. I will only add that its a good strategy if you are bullish on the stock.However, you might want to explore “Bull put spread” as this is being bullish on stock with some protection in case stock goes in opposite direction. This strategy can only be done in non-registered a/c.
I also wanted to let you know that me & my wife own ABX. Using Don.V seasonality guidance & your specific ( buy in jul, sell 1st week of sept, buy end of oct etc)
+ Rollews ( Lins) education on rollingover am happy owning the stock & writing covered call. Only drawback is I find there are no options in some months like sept,feb.
Finally if you have time will appreciate your outlook on ABX, YRI ( I blv you own this) & CNQ
Have a nice Easter
April 5th, 2012 at 8:46 pm
Eve,
Do the futures after the closing, not indicate the USA after hour trading (4:00 to 5:00 pm EST)?
Where does this information go?
April 5th, 2012 at 10:31 pm
Eve
- #69
” So, now that it closed today at $61.84 – does that mean if you had sold the puts yesterday at $62.50 strike for say $1.50 AND IF you DIDN’T buy those puts back TODAY at say 30 cents or so, that the person you sold the puts to could PUT the stock to you today for $62.50?? Thus, putting you in the hole now on the stock itself by 66 cents?? Is that right? ”
Eve…. Yes. The person who bought those puts from “you”, will now exercise his/ her
option (actually it is done automatically by the brokers) to put the shares into
“your account” and take from you 62.50 per share. So let us hope that “you” have the
margin available in your account to pay for them.
” BUT you’d still be ahead anyway by the premium you got yesterday of say $1.50 – so, you’d still be up in profit of $1.50 – .66 = 84 cents – is this correct? ”
Correct………
You get the shares put to you @ 62.50
Maybe you wanted to have this happen.
Your net cost is (62.50 minus 1.50) = 61.00
The stock is 61.81, so you just bought it at a discount!
Yes – some people actually do want this to happen.
This is their way of initiating a position. Makes sense.
Ana –
Actually you are one of the lucky ones that trade just one
instrument. All these options strategies run from quite arcane
to very simple & clever, but even here, it is often best to just stick
to one recipe…. “Set it up, monitor, take profits, (hopefully), rinse, repeat.”
(I think it was Wayne who said that – Thanks Wayne.)
So “options” could be the same as what you do, execution wise.
Different tool, same objective.
Muntazir,
As you approach those months where the options
are “missing”, they will appear. You always have the current
month, & the next month. But there are three series & not
all options follow the same series – hmmm….I wonder why……..
jan-apr-jul-oct
feb-may-aug-nov
mar-jun-sept-dec
the simulator is here
http://www.optionseducation.org/tools/position_simulator.html
lots of ideas on this site too.
April 5th, 2012 at 10:40 pm
Good Evening Eve,
What are your thoughts on NSC? I see it has broken up through the downtrend line. I think, sitting below keltner on weekly, but above on daily chart. RSI(21) about to break 50, stochastics moving up(?), 4/9ma crossed over, 9/18 about to cross and two positive closes above the 4ma. Do you see this as a buy please ?
Thanks,
KC
April 6th, 2012 at 12:37 am
Has SC.TO been acting counter to its seasonality since Jan or Feb this year ? Seems overbought but maybe rolling over? Has it gotten away from those of us who wish to pick it up as a short term defensive play ?
KC
April 6th, 2012 at 12:47 am
大家好！ Hi, just check out to see if there is anything interesting…
April 6th, 2012 at 2:50 am
Lin, very nice to see you on the site! Miss your little bright posts.
Happy egg hunting for your babes!
April 6th, 2012 at 3:02 am
Ana,
just wanted to say that I appreciated the oil remarks and understood that you were mentioning a pattern you had seen in the past…thanks for posting your thoughts!
April 6th, 2012 at 9:30 am
KC
sorry didn’t answer you yesterday in spxu.
1st yesterday they saw people buying in for the w-e some vix for protection.
now spxu.
Since it broke below 150MA back in october hasn’t been able to stay above an MA for more then 2 days. so we want to see this on monday before going totally bearish on this market, we could take a position at these price with a stop loss below 9 probably at 8.89
Indicators Williams W%R since early march they highs are lower and lower,
but since last week the lows are also higher and higher.
MACD going north slowly.
April 6th, 2012 at 10:23 am
Re US futures right now and the markets for Monday:
I just stopped in to say this:
US futures right now are down CONSIDERABLY!!! (yes, the US futures are trading today – as is the US bond market). Dow futures down 120 points!! SPX futures down 14 points!!! This suggests that Monday may be a VERY down day on the markets
The employment report for the US came in at 120,000 jobs added in the month of March – 220,000 jobs were expected
Their unemployment rate dropped to 8.2 from 8.3.
Looks like the futures market is “punishing” the bad report rather than taking the bad report to mean, “hey great!! things looking worse in the economic data means more QE is coming!!”
I didn’t know which way they’d take it (I wrote about that earlier yesterday on here in my post to KC on SPXU) – funny enough, Randy Cass on last nights BNN “Market Sense” show from 5 pm to 6 pm said the exact same thing as I had written earlier here yesterday – he said that if the report is a bad one, the markets would most likely go up because they’d then be thinking “Yay!! More QE is coming!” – I at least wrote that it could go either way – on either a good or bad report – as to how the markets reacted to it 
Anyway, now we know 
So, Monday should be a very down day (unless something great comes out over the weekend 
).
To those who’ve written to me last night asking me questions:
I will get back to you later today OR over the weekend with those answers
Just no time right now 
Thanks guys
Eve
April 6th, 2012 at 10:25 am
Hi Rol lew,
Thank you so much for confirming my thoughts on that SINA put stuff and profits in that strategy! I really appreciate the time you took to keep explaining this stuff to me!! You’re very sweet to do so
Thanks Rol
Eve
April 6th, 2012 at 10:31 am
Anyone cares to comment on the US employment numbers and the implications for the stock market on Mon? Is it going to be a catalyst for the bigger correction? Interested in reading your thoughts – have a great Easter weekend!
April 6th, 2012 at 10:39 am
PS to my post 100:
Looks like the US futures are done trading for the day (at around 915 am) as right now, they are no longer moving (looking at bloomberg futures AND at forexpros sites). Around 5 am EST, I checked them on the forexpros site and saw they were up 30 points for the DOW and up 5 points for the SPX – guess when the employment report was released, that is when the bull futures turned to the bear
So, if you’re looking up the futures on the forexpros site OR on Bloomberg, you’ll see the time of “15″ in both times on those sites (915 on Bloomberg and 1315 on forexpros) and you’ll see the futures no longer moving. So, this is why I say, I guess they closed already for today. The US bond market closes early today too – I think around 10 or 11 AM EST (when it usually closes at 3 pm EST).
Here’s a link to the Bloomberg site that shows how the futures were trading for the DOW, SPX, and Nasdaq (top of the page):
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/
Yes, Monday will be an interesting day (as Ron/AB wrote just after 4 pm EST on Friday on here
).
Eve
April 6th, 2012 at 11:14 am
Hi, Sky
Thanks. Hope you have made lots of $$$$$. I am still on the road. But I miss that pop quick dollars on day trade. Happy Easter
April 6th, 2012 at 11:19 am
Repeating my message #55 from around 3pm Thursday….. I do believe the pros quit early on long weekends and as noted the pros sold off and markets were down between 1:30 – 2:00.
MY NOTE FROM THURSDAY:
Has anyone noticed that the markets sold off quite a bit just before 2pm?
I have noticed this to occur on other occasions on the Friday before a long weekend and wonder if this might be when the pros head home or should I say off to the bar or perhaps to hop into their luxury vehicle and drive off to their expensive cottages!
If it is the pros taking off, it would seem their market view is negative.
April 6th, 2012 at 11:23 am
Hi. Tawny
Happy Easter! So Glad to see you there!
April 6th, 2012 at 11:30 am
KC
NSC Nice looking chart
1st reason latest low is higher then previous low (formed a W)
Indicators both MACD and W%R have been trending higher
and last 18Ma was its Resistance to break it made through the 38MA
plus the big volume spike mid march tells me people are putting money to work so this should be a great work horse next resistance should be 69$
option wise, 72.5 maybe 75 before MAy expiration.
september you could see this one probably in th 80$ range but thats a long shot.
April 6th, 2012 at 11:32 am
Tawny its the same issue every long w-e especially 4th of july where they close their books and go for a long deserved vacation wonder if its for us or them they do it.
April 6th, 2012 at 11:32 am
Personally, I am not counting on QE3 any time soon. The Republicans will jump on this and attack Obama… of course if the markets get worse or employment figures get worse, they will still attack Obama!
As Don V. said, the political attacks will heat up, and he said the markets usually go down April/May in Election year and in years ending in 2.
BTW next Bradley dates (minor ones) are April 11, and April 23 which is the day after the France election, which could be a big hullabaloo if the Socialist Government wins. And yes the last Bradley date was right in some parts of the world – in Europe, China. Actually TSX is down and S&P has not done much either.
Just saying, that’s all
April 6th, 2012 at 11:37 am
Lin
Hi and Happy Easter to you and your little bunnies too! I have been wondering where you were, did not know you were on the road — wherever you are, hope you are having a grand good tim.
I am not spending so much time on the board anymore – way too time consuming. We are getting into Spring and it is time to be outside enjoying life.
One of the Investment sites I follow Ciovacco Capital Management, Short Takes Blog – slogan is
Focus on your life, not the market
And I am getting there!
April 6th, 2012 at 11:38 am
KC
Shoppers DrugMart.
big volume spike indicators have turned negative, I wouldn’t be to attached to this one unless 43$ can hold as support which had been a long time resistance,
April 6th, 2012 at 11:42 am
Tony RE #108
And, it is worthwhile noting what they do in the market before they take-oof for the w-e. As I said, I noted a big drop down. I am holding some bear ETFs. TZA has actually been on a buy signal, also bought EPV – ultra bear Europe also on a buy sig., and a little bit of HVU…. which I intended to day trade, but after the pros left, the public came in and bought bullish, so I am holding the HVU too.
April 6th, 2012 at 11:43 am
Tawny
Markets are so much higher that it would be absurd for the fed to get an extra QE out.
If they do it would be named lets bomb the US$ as they already used operation twist the US$ dry. There is nothing more left to do.
rates are low, SnP is near its all time high why spend more money in the economy?
April 6th, 2012 at 11:46 am
My last post now as I am taking this day to
a) clean up mymessy office and
b) rake the back and fertilize
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/treasury-yields-drop-most-5-months-market-reacts-equity-futures-slide
April 6th, 2012 at 11:49 am
Tee Hee,
Just noted that the last several notes from 107 on are from TnT !
April 6th, 2012 at 12:16 pm
Tawny
Thank you! I haven’t trade so much since I have few positions in hand. Less work until market turns. I have more focus on the real life intead of glue on PC, typing to other people, who may never meet in the life lately. And I have discovered that there are so much things to learn other just than trading.
April 6th, 2012 at 12:18 pm
Tony
Happy Easter to you and your little bunnies there. I will wirte you a mail when I get time…
April 6th, 2012 at 1:30 pm
So good to see you Lin – I have been “nose to the grindstone” ie working hard on taxes/bookkeeping, and have no cash to trade with anyway
– at the end of the day I come and count up my losses – it is very disheartening.
Sounds like everyone is expecting even greater losses come Monday; wish I knew what to do – NOT getting into options – Eve & Rol have my head spinning LOL!!
April 6th, 2012 at 2:03 pm
thx Lin
And Happy Easter to you and yours
don’t have them eat to much chocolate bunnies otherwise mine won’t get their eggs.
April 6th, 2012 at 2:12 pm
CJ
Thanks. I am hearing you!
April 6th, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Lin
will be happy to get an email.
April 6th, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Happy Easter to everyone.
April 6th, 2012 at 2:15 pm
suger. chocolate should ban or limit sell… Tony, my kids says that they have sweet teeth….
April 7th, 2012 at 1:17 am
Tony and DWK,
Curious about your strategy with holding high dividend yielding stocks in your rrsp. If the stocks themselves lose value, what is the point in holding such stocks with high dividends? Downside of that is you can’t even claim the capital loss correct?
Thanks
KC