ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Tuesday April 10th
U.S. equity index futures are mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures are unchanged in pre-opening trade.
European equity markets are lower on growing concerns about sovereign debt. Interest rates on Spanish and Italian debt increased again.
Harley Davidson (HOG $46.92) is expected to open higher after Citigroup upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. Target was raised from $50 to $55.
Thompson Creek Metals (TC $6.21) is expected to open higher after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock from Sell to Hold.
American International Group added $0.71 to $32.70 after Wells Fargo upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform.
Sony fell $1.50 to $18.60 after announcing a record loss for fiscal 2012.
SuperValu gained $0.71 to $6.10 after announcing higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter earnings.
Technical Watch
Harley Davidson Inc. (NYSE:HOG) – $46.92 after Citigroup upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. The stock has a deteriorating technical profile. Intermediate trend changed yesterday from up to neutral on a break below support at $48.00. Support is at $44.90 and resistance is at $50.96. The stock broke below its 20 day moving average last Wednesday and below its 50 day moving average yesterday. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned negative in the first week in March. Seasonal influences tend to peak near the end of April. Preferred strategy is to take profits on strength closer to its 20 day moving average at $49.10.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00113.png "clip_image001[1]")
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image204.png "clip_image002[1]")
Sony Corp. (NYSE:SNE) – 18.60 fell 7.5% after the company announced a record loss for fiscal 2012. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock fell below its 50 and 200 day moving averages last week. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since late February. Preferred strategy is to avoid the stock.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00312.png "clip_image003[1]")
Interesting Charts
Lots of downside technical action by U.S. stocks, ETFs and indices yesterday!
· The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke below short term support at 13,000 and its 50 day moving average at 12,980.10.
· Thirty one S&P 500 stocks broke support and changed trend. None broke resistance. Many more are trading just above support and are vulnerable to a break down. Stocks breaking support yesterday included Aflac, Applied Materials, Bank of New York, Boeing, Cablevision, Cincinatti Financial, DaVita, Dover, Duke Energy, Exxon Mobil, Fastenol, FLIR Systems, General Dynamic, Harman International, Health Care REIT, Janus Capital, Linear Technology, Motorola Solutions, Mylan Labs, Newell Rubbermaid, AGL Resources, NYSE Euronext, Oneok, Public Service Enterprises, Pulte Group, Sealed Air, Snap On, Tyson Foods, United Technologies and Walgreen. Following are the charts of prominent companies on the list:
Adrienne Toghraie’s “Trader’s Coach” Column
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The Time For Renewal
By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Success Coach
This is the time to think about where you are with your trading. It is the time of year that we all should reflect on renewal. For many of you, you just enjoyed the Easter celebration. I get to do it twice, perhaps to make sure that I get it. (Greek Easter is next week). It is also the time of Passover and spring is springing early.
While renewal can take place any time of year, with the birds returning and the flowers blooming with brilliant color it is almost time to sing, “June is busting out all over.”
Beginning trader
It is time to make sure that you are making good choices in teachers, putting together a plan and making sure you have a strategy that that works.
For all of you beginners it is time to visualize a profitable future and make sure that you have the resources to make it happen.
Intermediate trader
You are actively trading live and have come to realize the self-sabotage that is keeping you from the next level of success. You have felt the loss of following your rules as well as not following rules. You have received the feedback from making mistakes. This is the time to move forward.
For all of those who are intermediate traders you must go back to the drawing board of your business plan if your strategy is not giving the results you thought it promised. If your strategy works, but you are not allowing the full potential of your strategy, then you need a trader’s coach.
Advanced trader
You are seasoned enough to enjoy the benefits of being consistent and know that you can rely on a good income from trading. You have done all of the work, overcome the self-sabotage and living the life of a successful trader. But you have not joined the ranks of a Master trader.
For those who are advanced traders it is all about you developing yourself as intuitive/discretionary traders. To reach this level you must continue to work on yourself beyond overcoming the issues of the past. Here is where it is important to learn how to flow with the markets so that it will feel uncomfortable not to make the best choices.
Bob was a reluctant student
Bob did not attend my seminar with the enthusiasm that is typical of most of the participants. He was there because the institution that he was working for required him to fill a seat.
Bob found that most of the exercises were for other people and not him because he was the top trader of the group. One of my best clients, Rob, lived in the same city where I was conducting the seminar. I asked him to drop by for lunch and talk about his journey as a trader. Bob did not pay attention to Rob until he said that he was earning an average of 35 million since he worked with me and was a participant in my seminar. At that point Bob took over the conversation and drilled Rob about every detail of his journey as a trader and about working with me.
Talk about renewals. Through the rest of the seminar, Bob was attentive and the most out spoken participant. After that he insisted that I take him on as a private client as soon as possible. He is now a Master Trader.
Conclusion
Renewal can come at any time. It is all about the choice to decide that there will be positive changes in your life, deciding on the outcome that you want and taking action to make it happen.
Free Weekly Newsletter & Find Out About Free Webinars
More Articles by Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Coach
Sign Up at – www.TradingOnTarget.com
Keith Richards’ Blog
This week’s blog is on gold – opportunity or head fake? www.smartbounce.ca
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
10 Year U.S. Treasury Notes Futures (TY) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC April 9th 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: HOG, SNE
April 10th, 2012 at 8:01 am
Hi KC
Look at the posts from Apr 5th. In Post #14 Canuck mentions what he would not invest in for the RRSP.
DKW
April 10th, 2012 at 8:23 am
Hi Canuck
I was looking at SLF late last night. I will add to my watch list. I think I will keep my pwf.to and add on weakness, because interest rate hikes are inevitable and pays dividend. Thanks for all the time you put in your posts.
Well, I am off to work. Talk to you later.
DKW
April 10th, 2012 at 9:34 am
Slava,
re. your q. from yesterday eve.:
I booked further losses on 1/2 of my cp shorts & covered. Still holding some – last batch while the drama unfolds.
re. diversification comment in the same post: for short term trading one doesn’t need to worry about this as you go for the best leverage. Diversification is more important for mid to long term trading even for swing trading, in my view. Cause with shorter term trading you monitor & have stop losses (set or perceived) and you take action – if market proves you wrong…so concentration is the name of the game there for max. profits.
April 10th, 2012 at 9:57 am
EVE: Check out WPRT this morning and also RAX
Happy trading everyone – I have to work again, so feel like my hands are tied as far as trading is concerned – Losses are discouragingly high with TCW.TO continuing to drop like a rock along with POT.TO
April 10th, 2012 at 10:06 am
gmsa / tony : who knows precious metals…
I believe that gold is still heading down – am I better to put money into bullion bear or gold stocks bear? Anyone willing to give opinion, please?
April 10th, 2012 at 10:18 am
re SPX:
SPX bounced off the significant support level YESTERDAY of 1378 – today, gone below it! The next level of support is at the 50 day MA of 1372 (we’re close by at 1376). Below there, the next major support level is at 1340. Stochastics is already oversold – so a bounce could come very shortly before the SPX heads lower again from there in order to get down to that 1340 level (and lower). MACD still showing as heading lower – when it starts to turn up, that is one indication that the SPX is about to head higher.
eve
April 10th, 2012 at 10:18 am
Tawny,
re.#5
While for past 5-6 days $gold is consolidating nothing else has gotten better about the price improvement. It’s just taking a break. Selling the rally is the name of the game.
But be warned that while it consolidates it’s safer NOT to be in leveraged funds. Pick the individual weaklings & short them.
Strike by Indian Jewellers got over & this has caused somewhat floor under the $gold price. May 11th they could go back to shutdown if the central govt. doesn’t take back those levies on gold import.
Nothing else has changed.
Break above 1721 and holding it would make me change my mind. My bias is still on the downside. All those who bought gold & related equities hoping for 2000 price, need to be flushed out firt and then it can build another stronger base. Also keep in mind that it’s already 11years old rally…and has topped quite a bit.
I wrote about HF mgr. and their holdings & related contrarian thinking yesterday PM.
Slava,
yesterday you mentioned you wanted to buy copper stocks & may go for fcx or tck. Remember tck has more of coal & zinc combined than just the copper. It’s not a pure copper play per say. Thought of mentioning this to you.
April 10th, 2012 at 10:24 am
CJ,
Yes WPRT gave back about 61% as of yesterday of its run in the last several months from $25 area to $50 area – that 61% give back is a fib retracement level (took it to the $35 level) – also, as of yesterday, WPRT got to below the bottom 2.5 keltner – also, its 4 day MA was at over $37 – so with all of these in mind, it made sense that WPRT would bounce up from yesterday’s close!
re RAX:
It just got back up today to its 4 day MA as it was too far below it yesterday. The rally in the price though got stopped today at its 9 day MA of $57.27 – not a good sign right now of it heading higher than its 9 day MA in the near term. Sorry CJ
eve
April 10th, 2012 at 10:24 am
Well, some very vigorous trading for me in the first hour.. bought and sold fm.to, bought and sold gmcr, shorted and covered pcln.. of course none of it makes a dent in my hgu paper loss
I’m wondering what to do with mt CP short position. It looks like it may head down to $72-range. Any thoughts on CP?
April 10th, 2012 at 10:26 am
Tony,
I guess its too late for me to short gfs.to now lol. I did not get time to do it yesterday and look at it now, down 20%!!!
KC
April 10th, 2012 at 10:42 am
gmsa
Thank you for your view on gold…. I think it is heading down BUT I am finding success with other bears at the moment so I think I will just stay out for now.
slava
None of my business, but I would not be buying long anything much now…. it is time to do your shorts! Watch the trend which is your friend as is said. I have tried going against it and it just backfires! You might want to look at this site for what some successful traders are doing… think I posted it while you were sitting in the sun –
http://www.simitrade.com/home/index
April 10th, 2012 at 10:46 am
wow.. tcw.to.. I stepped on another mine with this one. Luckily a fairly small position, 800 shares but still. Seems like a good company – perhaps not a bad idea to average down once it stops falling?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=TCW.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p61782680851
April 10th, 2012 at 10:47 am
Hi Eve,
Re #6 – SPX
I see the the oversold conditions and agree that there could be a bounce.
IF it does bounce, I am looking for 1390 to hold as resistance in order for the the downtrend to continue. The 1390 level may be a good point to add to a bear ETF like SPXU or HSD. Do you agree?
April 10th, 2012 at 10:49 am
Slava
I am utilizing UpTrend again and am having success with the following leveraged bears which are on buy signals: HVU and TZA. Also bought on my own analysis EPV which is Ulra Short MSCI Europe – not a huge volume (at 86.5k at the moment) but enough to trade well. Europe is in bad shape as we know.
BTW, Whiteside of UpTrend told me once that his RRSPs are all baskets of HBP funds.
April 10th, 2012 at 10:50 am
Eve: Re post #6, most inverse etfs are moving slowly, long holdings are taking it on the chin, what do you make of this. Also, after div. pay day of a stock, for e.g. today, what usually happens after. POT div date is today I believe, so I am wondering how it will trade in the next few days. I don’t think I want to buy anythiing now as the market is trying to find direction, small bounce or downtrend. Thanks for your thoughts.
April 10th, 2012 at 10:57 am
Ric or anyone: If you are on the board, is it safe to buy TVIX now, just wondering if they sort the financial part/catango of the etf. Thanks
April 10th, 2012 at 11:02 am
Hi Tawny,
RE #13
Me too. I do my own analysis but use The Uptrend as well and am having success with the bears for specific sectors and indices.
If you are following his methodlogy, you should not be looking to short gold and/or gold stocks as per #5 comment. They are closer to a buy then a short (although they are not a buy yet). They should be put on a buy watch list.
April 10th, 2012 at 11:11 am
Ron/AB
Me too… I have learned now to add my own analysis, which is why I bought EPV as it is not on UpTrend list… it is a Mama Bear as per Tony lingo! lol
Whiteside said yesterday that he expects gold to fill the gap and then head down further. HGU and HGD are at 9s and 10s… and there are bwetter opportunities. You know that he bought into HVU even before the buy sig – I believe he figured it hit bottom and moves so fast that better to be in a little premature… he would now be holding 100% of his position (whatever that is – this guy must have maga $s to trade with).
April 10th, 2012 at 11:14 am
Have a look at Europe now …
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
April 10th, 2012 at 11:14 am
Italy and Spain in deep doo doo
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/carnage-ala-milanese-italian-stock-bloodbath
April 10th, 2012 at 11:23 am
Tawny,
HGU is a 0
HGD is a 9
April 10th, 2012 at 11:29 am
#2-DKW
SLF and MFC… not ready yet, getting oversold, but they will go as the market does as per asset management issue with these… they run a lot of mutual funds and so on.
MFC is getting very close to a nibble… today’s candlestick formation is bullish so far, but it may not hold. We’ll see near the close… STO way oversold but no crossover yet. Almost in the middle of a “Golden Cross”. IAG is doing OK which is a good indicator.
I’d watch the RSI,Full STO, MACD for a turning point, also go to AmericanBull and check the listings under TSX, for guidance (it is computer generated, so impartial) and check BOTH the Daily and Weekly readings (top tab, left). But let your readings of the charts rule.
I would not own MFC in RRSP as I have seen go from 40 to 10 and back again so many times in my life that I consider this one too volatile for the RRSP. Prefer POW instead, slow and steady…very boring tho…
April 10th, 2012 at 11:32 am
Ron/AB
Ooops – I meant HGD and HBD are at 9s and 10s. actually HBD is at 8.
April 10th, 2012 at 11:34 am
Tawny: What does Whiteside say to look for. I am using the 50 day for the S&P. We are right there now. If we close below, that’s my signal to short using SPXU and HSD.
April 10th, 2012 at 11:36 am
321- I guess I should clarify, “the market”: watch the TSX chart for guidance as well, if markets tanking, so will insurance stocks. One needs to see a turn in direction.
TSX is getting oversold here…
April 10th, 2012 at 11:40 am
Hi Ron/AB,
I agree with you except fopr the 1390 as resistance. I’d be looking for the SPX first going to 1378 and see if that acts now as resistance – IF it can break thru there, then look for 1400 to act as next resistance (also, the 9 day MA currently is at 1399 – and the 9 day on run ups will now act as resistance too – once it gets above the 4 day MA – currently at 1387 – maybe at 1380 tomorrow??).
Eve
April 10th, 2012 at 11:46 am
Hi Kay,
I don’t really have an opinion on the discrepency – I’d just say that the bear ETF’s may need more time to really gear up to get going – traders may just be “watching” certain levels on the SPX etc. and see if these levels hold or break (like the 50 day MA today at 1372 breaking) before they jump in to buying more of the bear ETFs. Once they get confirmation (of whatever they’re looking at to get confirmation) of more downside coming (rather than any bounces up), then that is when you’ll most likely see the bear ETFs pick up steam.
as for ex div dates:
a stock will drop by the amount of the div paid ON the ex div date – now depending on what the overall market is doing OR that div stock’s sector is doing, the stock could bounce up from there OR it could continue going lower – there is nothing set as top what it does after it has that initial drop for the div payment. So say POT has a div of 20 cents, then with today being the ex date, it will drop by that 20 cents – and then after that, POT will do whatever is going on in the broader market OR in that sector of the fertilizers.
Hope this helps kay
eve
April 10th, 2012 at 11:50 am
Hi Eve: Thanks for your comments:
I’d just say that the bear ETF’s may need more time to really gear up to get going – traders may just be “watching”………..exactly what happened. Thanks again. Looks we are heading to 1340
April 10th, 2012 at 11:51 am
Hi Eve,
Thanks. Yes I see those areas as resistance as well (1378, 1399). The 1390 is the CP pivot and is near the 4ma now at 1386.
April 10th, 2012 at 11:53 am
Ray-K
Both are just on buy signals as of yesterday – on his proprietary charts. And here is today’s video which he now broadcasts (is that a www word?) on youtube. I had something to ask you and I can’t remember – darn! Well it may come back in mind.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LvMTtUMDkWk
April 10th, 2012 at 12:01 pm
Well, I keep looking for HVU to pull back a little to buy more but it keeps moving up – now up more than 12% today so far…. that’s about 28% this week!
April 10th, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Ray
Re #23 – Don’t know if you got an answer yet
Whiteside has proprietary channels (based on moving averages). The current channel range on his daily chart is 1396-1410. A close below the the channel is a sell signal and that occured yesterday. There is also a bearish reversal signal that occurred on his weekly chart. So basically with his system one should already have a position in a bear ETF like SPXU or HSD. He has 1390.22 as an intraday buy on his 60min charts. So basically IF prices bounce above 1390, one could expect them to get to the next resistance level which for him would be the bottom of the daily channel at 1396.
My own analysis last week (and Eve’s as well) indentified 1386 as key support which was broken. I see now that the 4ma has dropped to 1385.60 which should act as some resistance now.
April 10th, 2012 at 12:20 pm
Maybe???its time to get out of bears, seems like bounce is starting to take place.
Do your own DD pleae.
April 10th, 2012 at 12:22 pm
Kay,
LOL – yes, funny that i was writing that – and there it was happening right as I was writing LOL.
The SPX shouldn’t go straight down to 1340 though without a bounce up first – as it is far away right now from its 4 day MA which is currently at 1386 – so, maybe 1380 tomorrow?? and the SPX can’t stay away from its 4 day MA for very long (usually 2 days max).
eve
April 10th, 2012 at 12:30 pm
Hi Eve,
I never answered your last question in #25.
I think you’re right on, maybe 1380 as a bounce target. I hope it does so I can add more HSD:)
April 10th, 2012 at 12:34 pm
Ron/AB,
Oh that’s the CP point – ah ok – well, that 1390 is close to that 1399/ 1400 area – so, that area of 1390 to 1400 would most klikely act as the resistance area on a bounce up.
Thanks Ron
eve
April 10th, 2012 at 12:38 pm
Ron/AB: If S&P closes below 1371 (50 day)m do you think it will still bounce up or do you think we will continue to head lower? According to some of the so called guru’s I read, they claim that if we close below the 50 day, signal is to short.
April 10th, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Eve: You had posted where you saw the markets going a few weeks back in a presidential year, wonder if you could please repost. My MM said markets will gradual go down until June before the summer doldrums, but I dont think thats how you and Tech Talk sees it this year. Hope you have saved the post in your files and thanks.
April 10th, 2012 at 12:40 pm
Tawny and Ron/AB,
I wondering what you mean by a 9 or 10 in reference to HGD and o for HGU. I am not too sure I follow your comments.
I removed my HXD two weeks ago and did not reinitiate last week as I should have. Again, I feel I am on the wrong side. I really have a hard time to shift gears when I am underwater on a long position which is the case with HGU I bought last week. It should have been sold at a loss, but I did not. I am now wondering if I should hedge with short ETF. I was waiting for a bounce, but I am unsure it will come as the short ETFs keep appreciating, at least HXD so far. As I am writing, we just got a bounce in gold. It can’t hurt!
April 10th, 2012 at 12:44 pm
Canuck2004…re#24, I am interested in your comment on MFC and especially for your note, “very close to a nibble”. In the interest of learning something here, what would your indicators be for that? What I am seeing is a stock that has dropped through its 50 and 200 day MA, has dropped through at least two support levels and is heading for its next support zone of $11.45 to $11.66. Not only that, at least for a retirement account, its beta is over 2. That’s not for me, but I’d love to read your reasonaing.
POW does look like a very good alternative. It’s down but far less than many.
Thank you for your reference to AmercicanBull.com by the way. An interesting website.
April 10th, 2012 at 12:54 pm
Martine
The numbers 8, 9 or 10 are on a scale of 0 – 10 on UpTrend charts; 10 being the highest number for a stock or ETF meanig that it is overbought but can s tay overbought for a long time and even thought the stock goes higher, 10 is the highest no. on these charts. 0 is, of course, the opposite… you can pick up a lot by just following his daily FREE charts, which he now posts on You Tube.
April 10th, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Eve,
Do you really think we should get a bounce over the next few days considering how things are evolving in Europe right now? I am pondering whether I should add to my short ETFs now or wait for a bounce. For HXD, I kept waiting and now it is at a price whether you are doomed if you do and you are too if you don’t. What I mean by that is, after appreciating so much in a week, it could retrace some of its gains and keep trading higher. Meanwhile, you are in the red and you take the chance to be wrong and suffer a loss. With the SPX, it is still at an early stage and there is probably more upside right now. Your comments would be appreciated. Thank you.
April 10th, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Ray-K
I remember what I wanted to say – you are likely already aware (I just found out a couple of days ago) that RBC Direct will now be charging for multiple trades on one stock, effective June 1st. Boo Hoo
This will make day trading more costly!
April 10th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Hi Martine,
RE #38
The numbers refers to a value between 0-10 that The Uptrend uses to identify where a stock/ETF is in it’s trading cycle. A 0 means it’s very oversold and you want to start to watch it for a buy set-up. A 10 means overbought and you should watch it for a sell set-up. The numbers themselves don’t indicate a buy or a sell but does indicate the risk factor. For instance the HXD is at 10. This means it is overbought (TSX oversold) and so it is not where one would take new positions. The HSD on the other hand is a 5 and so has less risk then HXD at this point. Several components of the TSX like Energy, Mining, Gold are at very oversold levels (they are at 0) and since they make up a large component of the TSX, betting against the broad TSX is riskier now then betting against the SPX. The TSX Financial sector has recently just rolled over and may have more downside, the HFD is currently a 5 in The Uptrend database. Hope this helps a bit.
April 10th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Hi Kay,
Oh I never save my own posts (except if they are “teaching” posts like what I’ve writte on the keltner. I wrote that as the SPX has gone up 12% thus far this year, that in the second quarter we will most likely pull back by 50% of that gain and that by year’s end, I feel the market will most likely be up by that same 12% gain – so, we’d end at that 1420 level (or so) due to being flat last year – and due to the Pres election year usually being a good year for gains – then ending up by 12% this year would mean an avg gain of 6% per year for the last 2 yrs. And 6% for a year’s gains in a bear market rally that lasts on average for 4 yrs (started in March 2009), then that would be a reasonable expectation to have for year’s end.
That’s basically a summary of what I wrote Kay. The next “significant” Bradley date is June 12th (with a minor date starting tomorrow and ending on April 23rd). The next signif date after that is July 28th – so, if the Bradley dates do follow the sideograph as it is currently showing AND as we have followed it thus far since last year just as the graph shows for going up or going down at the turn dates, then for tomorrow it shows going up until April 23rd and then down again until June 12th – and then up until July 28th – and then down until the next signif date on Dec 22nd (with bounces up along the way down). And then up from Dec 22nd.
So far, it showed the markets going up from the Bradley date of Dec 28th 2011 to March 16th 2012 – and this is just what the markets have done! In 2011, it showed the markets going up from Bradley date of Feb 16th to the next Bradley date of July 29th / 30th and then down until the next Bradley date of Dec 28th (with bounces up along the way at the minor Bradley dates) – and this is EXACTLY what occurred last year with the direction being bang on for how the Bradley sideograph showed. So, IF this year turns out to be the same in direction as is showing on the sideograph, then my assessment of closing around that 1400 level will be wrong as the sideogrpah shows the markets ending lower from the high hit in March at that March 16th Bradley date. So, I think it will be an interesting year to see how it plays out – given that this is an election year
Eve
April 10th, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Tawny: Yes I saw that. I will be writing their CEO to voice my displeasure. In the meantime I will continue to use it and look at alternatives for switching by June 1st. I will also try swing trading the S&P on the way down and move the other way, when Benny starts printing again. All bets are off after the election. I am amazed at the media. One day they are cheer leading and the next they are gloomy. It would be nice if they stuck to the facts.
April 10th, 2012 at 1:18 pm
Ray-K
Not so sure that Uncle Ben will hit the printing presses from what I have been reading. I read that more printing will drive gasoline up more and will be too hard on the economy. And, the LTRO in Europe hasn’t been working either.
If you write to RBC, also mentio they should enable a trailing stop,
April 10th, 2012 at 1:19 pm
# 39-Freddebuoy
MFC: this for a trade, not RRSP. I thought I made myself very clear earlier.
Conditions have changed since my previous post as it and the TSX have both broken down.
Earlier this morning MFC had a + candle stick which is bullish in a bottom formation. I’m still waiting for an entry point. Not yet.
POW is a great buy IF the yield gets above 5%, as this is a very rare event.
Until I see a bullish candlestick on the TSX I am not buying anything… particularly any aggressive trades…just sitting back….watching.
April 10th, 2012 at 1:20 pm
Eve, Ron/AB,
Do you see the SPX getting down to that critical 1340 this week? Secondly, if 1340 does not hold, does all @#$% break lose, down to 1312 or 1304 ?
KC
April 10th, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Hi Martine,
Yes a bounce up tomorrow is a very reasonable thing to have happen – due to several things really: SPX is too far away from its 4 day MA (and it likes to touch it daily – today it didn’t touch it at all!) – right now it’s showing as 1384 (tomorrow it will be lower – maybe 12380?? maybe 1378??)
2) the SPX has been down 5 days in a row now – with today being a BIG down day (thus far). So, it would be reasonable after 5 down days for the selling to take a little break – just to have a 1 or 2 day (or more) bounce up to get that “fear” under control (fear of markets selling off by significant amounts). Then we could easily go down again after that.
3) There’s a minor Bradley date that shows is starting tomorrow – it shows a bounce up that goes until Apr 23 – now Bradley dates don’t predict “direction” that the stock markets will make at the time of the turn dates – HOWEVER, with looking at the sideographs from this year and from 2011, the markets have gone exactly in the direction that is being shown on the Bradley date sideograph – so, until this changes, I would expect this to continue going forward thereby suggesting an up turn starting somewhere around April 11th and ending somewhere around April 23rd (give or take 4 calendar days on either side of the dates – could be up to a week rather than just 4 days). Here’s that info taken from this site on the Bradley dates:
http://www.amanita.at/FAQ/FragenzumBradley-Siderograph/Bradley-Siderograph/
Eve
April 10th, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Eve: Thanks and lucky YOU that you have a good memory. I have cut and printed the post and will keep it in a safe place to follow. Looks like we are having mini bounces but no definate reversal so far. I read somewhere 1362…1354…1342 to watch with mini bounces so maybe thats what happening. I don’t want to load up on too many shorts because Ben B. can announce QE3 when we least expect. Happy trading and thanks again.
April 10th, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Hi Ray
Re #36
The gurus who follow the 50 dma rule are likely trend traders and wont be too concerned with a 1 day bounce. All I can say is that 1375-78, 1386-1390, and 1396-1400 are the resistance areas. It is likely that we bounce a little but how much is hard to say, and also if we bounce from lower levels then the moving averages will all be lower. The 50 dma does complicate things because there are a lot of traders that use that as a signal and they could pile in. If we do close below the 50ma it could also act as resistance going forward.
April 10th, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Hi KC,
I think my post 49 will answer your question on the SPX
All he** would break loose IF the SPX goes BELOW the 200 day MA which is currently at 1270.
Eve
April 10th, 2012 at 1:28 pm
Eve,
Could I please get your take on GFS.TO. Do you think it will bounce back up starting tomorrow to fill that huge gap down today or do you think its going lower?
Do you see any strong support for GLNG around 35.70 area or do you see it going down to the $32 range before it starts to go back up?
Not sure if you read my notes over the weekend and yesterday. I did send you an email and never heard back from you.
Thanks for your good explanations on SPX today at well.
KC
April 10th, 2012 at 1:29 pm
#47- MFC…
This is a high beta stock, great volume for the TSX, and one of the most shorted stocks on the TSX. Once correction done, shorts will cover and it will move higher. A quick move up will result, and this event will trigger stops on short interest that aren’t nimble enough to close fast with the short covering crowd.
A domino effect will take place…a short term melt UP will result….
April 10th, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Kay and Ray,
RE #48
I do think we are headed for at least 1340. When is hard to say as there could be a bounce here. One thing to note is that the market corrects much faster then it goes up. For now, I have to believe that the 4ma will continue to act as resistance (roughly 1386).
April 10th, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Hi Ron/AB,
When I wrote my reply to you at post 25, the SPX was trading ABOVE its 50 day MA (it was trading at 1374 and the 50 day is at 1372). So, since I wrote that reply to you, things have now changed and thus, my response will need to be changed too! So now that the SPX has gone far enough BELOW its 50 day MA, then for bounces up going from here, the first resistance will BE THAT 50 day MA of 1370 – and after that, then the resistance I wrote about in my post 25 of 1378 and then 1399/ 1400 area (or as you wrote too, that CP at 1390
).
eve
April 10th, 2012 at 1:34 pm
Oops PS Ron/AB,
I meant to write the first resistance up from here will be that 50 day MA at 1372 (NOT at 1370 as I had written at post 56
).
eve
April 10th, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Hi KC
SLF.to
I didn’t say buy it here my buy point would be 150MA so there is still a few pennies to go.
yes I agree indicators are negative. but I never buy when price hits my support unless I see Support holding on just like westernzargos.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WZR.V&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p00629201418&a=257471752
April 10th, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Hi KC,
I’ll get back to you in a bit – but briefly re GLNG: a bounce up could occur right here in order to get to its 4 day MA which shows today as $39.10 BUT will be a lower price tomorrow – but the trend right now is down – could get to as low as $32 which is the bottom keltner on the WEEKLY chart.
Yes, got your email today (as it went to my spam box – and I never looked there – was only checking my main inbox for it) – thank you – haven’t had a chance yet to reply to it though – sorry KC – will reply when I get a chance.
Be back in a bit with more of a response for those 2 stocks.
Eve
April 10th, 2012 at 1:45 pm
oh and KC
I always have a 4-6 sell trigger if price does decide to break below support.
but in this case 8% would be tolerable if near the divi payout.
April 10th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
DKW,
re. #1 Did you mean post #35 from April 5th ?
Thanks,
KC
April 10th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Hi Eve,
We are thinking the same way!
I just noticed this myself when I was answering Ray in #51 (re. the whole 50ma thing). I agree that it will now act as the first area of resistance.
Note too that the RSI(21) is below the 50 level which is another confirming indication of the weakness. The close today should be interesting.
April 10th, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Ray
I would let the bears run free.
not that I am bear, only a bull trying to make money where ever I see an opportunity,
spxu just made a 9/18 cross since last december at best we had a 4/18 cross at best.
April 10th, 2012 at 2:01 pm
Tony,
Thats ok thanks, was just trying to understand your logic.
If you were to pick up SLF.TO, MFC.TO and GWO.TO on this pullback (or its parent, is it Power Fincancial?), where would you recommend a buy on these ? Would you wait for the TSX to turn around upward as a good signal to compare to ?
Thanks again,
KC
April 10th, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Eve: Thanks, look forward to your response.
Did you mean 50SMA and not EMA in #59 ?
KC
April 10th, 2012 at 2:07 pm
Tony: I am going to see how we close. If we stay where we are, time to short.
April 10th, 2012 at 2:11 pm
Ron/AB: Have you noticed that Oil is having trouble breaking its 4 week low at 100.75. 4 times it has tried and continues to bounce. If we do not see it break by 2:30 pm, I expect we will see it gap up tomorrow and move lower on those inventory numbers. I am presently over weighted on the the short side for Oil.
April 10th, 2012 at 2:19 pm
I think it is time to put stops on your bears. I am going to see haow the market closes. Hope Alcoa reports bad but will be putting on 2% trailing stops i think. I agree with Eve that we need a bounce, BUT look how far the market rose showing over bought. Hopfully get one more day short before the employment numbers.
April 10th, 2012 at 2:27 pm
re SPX:
Just received this in my mail:
http://www.stocktiming.com/Tuesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
Coincides well with what I wrote earlier today to Kay re gains during Pres Election yrs.
Eve
April 10th, 2012 at 2:27 pm
Eve, Ron/AB, Tony,
I noticed in November and August last year, when the SPX closed below the 50MA, it then went lower for the next few days. Where does it need to close today for you to think tomorrow and/or the rest of this week will be a bullish one?
KC
April 10th, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Ray,
I see what you mean but it seems a bit precarious though. I currently don’t have a position in oil but am starting to watch the commodities and resource stocks. They are oversold and can stay that way for some time but they do deserve to be watched. I am focused more on the broad markets (bear side) now and am in the early stages of looking for long positions in oversold stocks and sectors.
April 10th, 2012 at 2:35 pm
KC
1st Anyone who can clearly predict where to find the low at this stage is either a genius or works for G-Sucks
MFC, SLF, GWO
SLF already have my preview. add the indicators to the equation should give you a good feedback of when to invest.
MFC
this company has lots of activity at 12 (since Jan 100MA (now at 11.98) was an are where it bounced up)
The 150MA was a resistance that it broke through and retested as support
on the option front 10$ could be an excellent area to invest.
GWO.to
Back in January GWO had a pull back above the 200MA before it followed on its normal path higher.
So on the 200MA I would look to see if it can hold on to the 200MA before investing. this is more then 2$ below current price.
I would look at my indicators to see when my indicators clearly show me a second low that was higher then previous low. MACD H should show you an uptrend this would be the time to put money at work.
April 10th, 2012 at 2:35 pm
NYSE volume run-rate is its highest of the year for a non-OPEX day
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/volume-back
April 10th, 2012 at 2:42 pm
Eve : http://community.nasdaq.com/News/2012-04/gasfrac-issues-first-quarter-2012-operations-update-shares-fall-to-below-yr-lows.aspx?storyid=132768
April 10th, 2012 at 2:45 pm
KC
SPX just woke me up.
thx for waking me up with the spx.
I was going to compare the spread between price and cross when I found the following.
If you look at the 50/200 death cross back in august, The market prior to it went as low as 1101. but if you look carefully 150/200 cross revived the zombies from the grave.
we had a 50/200 golden cross back at the end of January.
but we have just crossed the 150/200 so we should see red ink all over the place for sometime.
your spx
April 10th, 2012 at 2:53 pm
TCK.B
Bought today at 34.00 Hope it holds. Had this buy for three weeks.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:02 pm
KC
Needed a coffee break.
ok what about spx on a daily routine…
Spx either stops on the 100MA or heads to 200MA.
If you look at how it has acted since october when it reaches the 100MA area it just turns around on its heels and moves in opposite direction.
and as it had found resistance on the 200MA and of broke through now the 100 could be in jeapordy losing to the 200MA.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Hi All,
Do you think its wise holding HVU.TO over night?
I am already up $1700 in one day.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Rami
its time to let the bears run wild and make money off of them
HVU.to concern is 38MA as resistance. this is where I would put a 10% Downside protection once this is hit.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:14 pm
Once again Obama speaks & markets drops.
They will do their best to keep him from regaining the post again.
Another budget ceiling limit meet is not too far either.
Watch for more negative coverage from the right wing media…political deadlocks etc.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Rami/AB
I think you have to decide for yourself. I will hold overnight as I think pain has just begun and the HVU just got an official buy signal on UpTrend and I am quite, quite certain that Whiteside (principle of UpTrend) will hold until it gets a sell signal. It is your call, but something to think about – you can sell some and hold some 50/50 or ??? Good luck with your decision.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:16 pm
don’t recall which show was talking about natgas, and something popped in my mind…
funny how my brain works at times.
if this year is an election year, and NatGas is down the drain, employment is not that good, and oil is so expensive, what are the odds the next american president comes out with is job-job-job plan and make Nat Gas the fuel of the future?
April 10th, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Tony Thanks so much.
Maybe I will put a stop loss for HVU.TO at $4.5 so that I don’t lose all my profit.
does that sound wise?
April 10th, 2012 at 3:19 pm
Tony
I hear you about stop losses…. But I do have a feeling normal T.A. R & S may not apply to HVU and other VIX products at times of great concern or FEAR.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Sorry stop loss for HVU.TO is $ 5.5 not 4.5
April 10th, 2012 at 3:26 pm
VIX information
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/vix-nears-21-term-structure-flattest-4-months
April 10th, 2012 at 3:26 pm
Hey all!
‘Never bet against the market trend.’
The market is still mildly bearish. I believe the trend may change soon though.
Pull your trigger when the market turns bullish.
You will have more chance that way than trying to catch the bottom.
Just my 2 cents after going through lots of Ups and Downs!
April 10th, 2012 at 3:26 pm
KC
Gasfrac Energy Services Inc. (GFS-T5.45-1.34-19.73%) has provided early warning that
first-quarter results will be well below already-disappointing fourth-quarter levels, due to sluggish U.S. activity and the early spring that has limited the movement of rigs on frozen ground. “We see this as confirmation that work for Husky has been less than guided while U.S. activity has fallen heavily after an initial fast start in 2011,” commented UBS analyst Chad Friess.
Downside: Mr. Friess cut his price target by $1.50 to $5 and reiterated a “sell” rating
April 10th, 2012 at 3:28 pm
Rami/AB
Something I have noticed about HVU is around this time some sell off and take profits and often just before the close there is a buying spree to protect for next day’s action.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Tawny & Tony,
Re.#85
Technical analysis is of no use when it comes to 2nd, 3rd & 4th derivative products.
Better to just look at the basic underlying instead & make it simpler.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:30 pm
I’m so busy at work.. missed most of today’s action
and what an “action” it was.. had I kept my PCLN short position from this morning it would have made me a cool $5k.. oh well.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:30 pm
Young
So good to hear your thoughts on #88 and reminds me of that action. I always seem to sell my winners too soon and my losers too late. I will hold my winners but trying to establish stop losses too.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:33 pm
Tawny,
Are you holding HVU.TO over night?
April 10th, 2012 at 3:35 pm
GMSA
Totally true what you just posted in 91.
as markets tend to follow single etfs.
HVU. my comparison was done by looking which vix MA was the best resistance. but since VIX broke out of its MA resistance my analysis was were could hvu hit its head before falling unconscious.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Tawny,
Sorry just saw your post #82
Thanks.
I will hold over night and try to be a bet braver coz 2011 was painful for me and it affected my confidence so I will hold on to it coz as you said fear is just starting now.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:38 pm
Rami
Yes, I sent you message, read #82.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:39 pm
KC
yup told you if 6.15 didnt hold 5.2 was next target…man If I continue with these weird calls I think people will think my name is blackfine
April 10th, 2012 at 3:42 pm
Rami
whose fear?
HFs they have no fear if they did they would be of the working class. and As I have said in the past if the want to be without a job they should convince us the market isn’t there just to suck us dry. because with out us the mass their jobs are in jeopardy.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:46 pm
underlying – 1st level
at/near the money options of these underlying -2nd level
Index made out of this 2nd level is VIX – 3rd level
Adding the futures of this animal VIX – 4th level
Levered ETF made out of this 4th layer is Horizon product HVU.to – 5th level
I’m sure we can argue about adding or reducing 1 or 2 levels in the above explanation.
Even simple horizontal support resistance lines won’t work consistently as it has too many mathematical magics built into it…forget about ma or fibs. etc.
So ride these carefully…please.
KISS is the best that works fine on these.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Rami
this correction is a simple bear correction
slow and steady climb with a hard fall. before picking up again.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
tony
I read article a couple of days ago that margin is (was then) as high as it was in July 2011 which could accelerate a move to the downside (margin calls). This would be the HF’s wouldn’t it? OMG, what if we reject Aug. 2011 – who knows.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Tony,
Ofcourse fear of the mass us (will today I hope I am on the right side “the bear side” and someone else is scared lol).
I will hold my bear tight and see.
Thanks Tony and Tawny
April 10th, 2012 at 3:48 pm
GMSA
thx for the explanation of what you meant by level.
April 10th, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Tony
The fear is there big time again in Europe (2nd largest market) and we are all Global now.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/debt-crisis
I am posting this rather than info I read on Zero Hedge . com. I noticed there is a video re Greece riots after the suicide… will not look at it. But that suicide really upset me – this poor old guy working hard all his life and took it with a gun rather than face living out of garbage cans. Martyed himself in a public square to make a statement. It is so sad that they saved the banks (temporarily) but the debt will continue to soar.
April 10th, 2012 at 4:00 pm
Cannuck, Ron/AB, Tony,
Do any of you own BCE.To, T.To ? Would you hold these in RRSP and what would you be willing to pay for them?
Thank you
KC
April 10th, 2012 at 4:02 pm
Re Obama’s talk again about taxing the rich. This is also the platform of Hollande (Socialist party) in the France elections. With the pain of the 99% I would not be surprised to see Hollande win and Obama get re-elected. There are far more poor suffering people now and I have been “feeling” that the people are rising again as they did early in the 19th century. Revolution again? I am just mouthing off my thoughts.
April 10th, 2012 at 4:16 pm
Tawny
I totally agree with you,
I told a colleague of mine just today that I couldn’t believe she deprives herself from even going to a more then decent restaurant because her 3 teens go to private school.
while they both work and don’t even allow themselves to go at a good restaurant her teens just this past w-e went to the restaurant, and we aren’t talking about McD but higher in the chain of restaurants.
this is a sad reality when I was in University a good time was at most a movie, some clubbing and had to keep some money on hand cause we never new what dent in the road plus the fees we had. My folks always told me you get in to debt its ok but make sure you get out of it as soon as possible.
while my cousins that followed their life style was every w-e we go and spend what we made, add to it vacations after every semester.
Don’t know their finance but I know they are living larger then life. the question is why? I think they still haven’t realized that when you get at a certain age and you can’t take care of yourself you end up in a retirement home and your finance will either have you in a dump or somewhere that still has some humanity behind it.
I see it first hand with my wifes grandmother the expenses that comes with being in a retirement home are so huge.
but hey if they have a tree that grows money good for them.
And I am sorry but we the people allow CEO get bonuses that are extremely high on no performance real performance.
take POT 175% bonus reason still unclear 175 on 2K is not bad but when 175% equates to 2M$ that is greatly exagerated and this is when we the people should show them who the real boss is us or them.
We the people are the ones who should stand up like Carl Icanh and give them the boot.
April 10th, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Tawny
My grandmother was a young adult during WW2 use to say.
I lived in misery and got out of it but you are living in luxury and if you fall it will be harder to get up.
April 10th, 2012 at 4:27 pm
Tawny
I am not for taxes or against taxes, but if the poor as difficulty coming around with a 30% tax rate and the mighty rich can take loopholes advantages and pay 16% that I am against.
Its easy have a 20% tax rate on everyone no matter the source of your income at least the poor don’t feel drained. and the rich won’t get a dent in their wallet.
April 10th, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Tony,
re.#108
So true you wrote there.
Re. the discrepancies between lowest salaried person & highest paid in the average corporation, Japan has done much better job. I think the multiplier is 30 times max. Saw statestics few years ago.
So if you want 3 million salary (or total compensation) min. salary in your corp. has to be 100K. That’s the perfect wealth distribution within the same corp.
But then again, why a MP or MPP get life time pension with just one term whether they do their job correctly or not?
As mentioned in the past, the social media is bringing down the barriers put in by the media moguls & rich owning everything and giving access to the news/info. with their spices on it or theirs only interpretations. This is a grass root change that will have a bigger impact everywhere including oppressive regimes like China – no matter how much censorship that they impose.
EOM!
April 10th, 2012 at 4:35 pm
Found the article regarding margin debt… here is a bit “So in keeping with the times, and sticking heads in the sand, watch out for that 3pm call from your repo desk. Best idea would be to just let it go through to voicemail.” LOL
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nyse-margin-debt-highest-july-means-threat-margin-calls-high
Yep, I guess margin calls could pull the market down faster.
April 10th, 2012 at 4:39 pm
KC
BCE, T.
lets do two comparison daily vs weekly.
BCE
Daily it crossed below 200MA support will BCE hit 33$ again?
Weekly 50MA has been support. price is there. if it breaks below only MA that had an impact on this chart was the 200MA and this is close to 09 so price 31… to follow.
T.to
Daily if the 50MA breaks then 100MA is just around the corner. 1$ below.
weekly 18MA has been its best ally if it breaks below we are headed to the 38MA as its second support support so price target 54$
April 10th, 2012 at 4:44 pm
Tawny
I read an article this w-e online about a a us diplomat a chinese decent, he has been booking lower class hotels, doesn’t require the help of anyone to buy himself a latte at SBUX,
at a recent gathering in china he took a 4* accomodation when everyone else are taking the big expensive rooms.
and China’s people have been taking notes and are making a fuss that an American is living below his means while their govment counterpart aren’t.
April 10th, 2012 at 4:45 pm
Tawny,
re.#112
Funny that as you were posting about margin clerks and their effects on the markets…and here I was trying to find out if today in the precious metals sector it was just short covering as the margins are eroding and ‘they’ are just covering their shorts OR simply the money finding safer harbour in already oversold sector.
Will closely watch how this sector behaves in coming few days or by mid next week.
DXY was just over 80 as markets were closing. 1.26 the next target for eur/usd?
April 10th, 2012 at 4:47 pm
Tony
I agree with you and very much with your grandmother…. I was born dcuring the WWII and as a toddler toys were pots and pans, boxes, etc. I could go on and on but I don’t want to sound like my parents- how much things cost in their day, etc.
BUT, today the EXCESSES ARE RIDICDULOLUS. Line Ups even by the poor-looking people to buy the latest electronic gizmo that they don’t really even need. Probably spend their welfare on junk. The young people EXPECT so damn much and according to what I have read in After Shock and other articles things are going to change big time in the next few years and your Grandmother is right – it is going to HURT.
Taxes, I agree. I get miffed if Canadians complain about taxes in general because I appreciate what we have here and so do the immigrants… as the lab techician who draws my blood (vampire!) she is from El Salvador, the only thing we should complain about is the Weather! But I do not like that the ultra rich 1% don’t pay their share.
If the poor get off their butts and get out and vote – France will likely have a Socialist Government. If that happens, watch out.
April 10th, 2012 at 4:49 pm
gmsa Re #115, this is for you
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/stocks-plunge-rare-equity-gold-decoupling
April 10th, 2012 at 4:56 pm
gmsa
I am trying to read what I posted for you and my eyes are glazing over. Too tired to even try to comprehend – lots of charts and it seems Alcoa exceeded expectations but…. later, much later, after dinner I will look again. LOL
April 10th, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Don’t think this correction is done yet, nothing bullish about this chart:
TSX weekly
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TSX&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p99500322789
April 10th, 2012 at 5:16 pm
Hello Eve,
When you have a moment, could you please comment on AOL. The prices went from $18.46 to $26.40, yesterday, after the announcements that Microsoft bought patents from AOL:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AOL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p42122950534.
Thank you and have a great evening, Ania
April 10th, 2012 at 5:25 pm
Hi KC,
Ok re GFS.TO:
Honestly, I really have no idea whether that gap will close and this is why:
because the company received a few price downgrades today (tony I believe stated one to $5) and I heard another one today on BNN of $6. Also, with the markets in sell off mode right now, then this one may recover a bit to the upside to get INTO that gap area (due to currently being VERY oversold on the chart on the keltner and with respect to the 4 day MA BUT not yet oversold AT ALL on stochastics – not even close to it actually – on both the DAILY and the WEEKLY charts) but it may not at all “close” that gap altogether due to those downgrades today in price.
“Generally” speaking, gaps do tend to close – and usually fairly soon after they’ve been created – BUT, with the type of news that came out today on this stock, it may not. This stock could go to $4.66 which is the bottom keltner 2.5 on the WEEKLY chart.
re GLNG:
ok, on the WEEKLY chart, it is sitting RIGHT at support of that $36.90 level which is ALSO the 50 week MA too (at $37.45). the 50 week MA is a SIGNIFICANT support point for this stock as it has been trading ABOVE this MA since Sept 2010!! So, IF it breaks significantly BELOW this MA, then it will head to that $32 area. Also, it is currently oversold on stochastics on the WEEKLY chart BUT the MACD is still showing as trending down. That price support too of $36.90 area is also significant as it has bounced off that price several times and moved higher after a sell off. So, IF this stock goes BELOW that significant level by any great amount (say 75 cents or more), then it will most likely be heading to the bottom keltner on the WEEKLY chart which is at $32.06.
On the DAILY chart:
It is not yet oversold on the keltner OR on stochastics. Has only gone half way done stochastics – sto is at 50 (below 20 is oversold). The keltner bottom is at $36.12 for 2.5 – and for the keltner 3.0 bottom, price is at $35.46 (but will go lower in price each day as the stock heads lower). The 4 day MA is currently at $39 level (tomorrow it will be a lower price – maybe $38.50??) – so, GLNG could easily see a bounce up in order to try to get to its 4 day MA BUT after that, I feel it will head down again from there.
post 66:
as for when I write MA for the moving averages:
I only ever use the SMA KC – so anytime you see my write anything with respect to the MA’s, it will be in reference to the SMA only
Hope this helps KC
Eve
April 10th, 2012 at 5:45 pm
Hi Ania,
Yes, I heard that announcement yesterday too re AOL. Honestly though Ania, I have no idea how that kind of “deal” will affect the stock’s price going forward – as in, will it keep its gain from $18 to $26?? OR will AOL come back down again to its long time support of the 50 day MA which is at that price point of $18 (it’s at $18.46). For nowk, it looks like AOL is trying to come back down to its 4 day MA which is currently at $22.02 (the 4 DAY MA will most likely be a higher price tomorrow). So, once it catches up to its 4 day MA, it will be after that that will tell you where the stock goes to from there due to its patents sale.
Sorry I cannot be of more help with that Ania but with things like that, I just don’t know the answer
Eve
April 10th, 2012 at 6:23 pm
Ron/BC’s Gold Renko Chart again:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPGDM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80234209192&a=241497573
Time to get bullish on gold stocks again?
April 10th, 2012 at 6:32 pm
tony, here is a repost of your CMG chart from some time ago.. What are your thoughts on CMG now? It closed below 4day, 9day and 18day.. earnings will be released on April 19th.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMG&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p61747298751&a=261080593
April 10th, 2012 at 6:34 pm
Alcoa up +5% in the after-hours after a better than expected earnings annoucement.. this could help give markets a lift tomorrow.
April 10th, 2012 at 6:43 pm
Hey guys, remember Scorpio mining – spm.to? Discussed on this board by me and Lin about a year ago. Well, it’s looking pretty oversold, perhaps ripe for a bounce. I just placed it back on my watchlist. Opinions?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SPM.TO&p=D&yr=1&mn=6&dy=0&id=p11484589669
April 10th, 2012 at 6:48 pm
Thank you very much Eve,
Ania
April 10th, 2012 at 7:02 pm
So another round of quantitative easing — not that there is any consensus that either of the previous two rounds have even worked — is certainly on the table.
And there is one more thing to take from the U.S. jobs report, and it is something that a lot of Canadians may like: with a report like this, Canadian interest rates have to be on hold, maybe for a quite a while.
From;
http://www.bnn.ca/Blogs/2012/04/09/Optimism-hard-to-come-by-in-US-jobs-report.aspx
April 10th, 2012 at 7:09 pm
OK, a general question and hope to get a reply from more experienced traders. I’d bought FM-T thursday and planned to hold on until news but since we were heading out for shopping etc, decided to set a stop loss sell. Well now 3 times in my memory, these things get triggered for some reason??, Today the bounced back around noon, suddenly went down, triggered my sale, and bounced. Am I just unlucky or is this computer trading. I admit…I know little about the system but after happening 3 times in the past year I am now not likely to use a stop loss unless mental? Am I wrong??? Thanks. Hniel/Kingston
April 10th, 2012 at 7:11 pm
Slava,
#126. Christine Poole was on Market Call today, she talked about spm.to said, they have someone there reassessing the reserves, they may have lower grades which would decrease the amount of reserves. She said she would wait to see what they come up with.
Hope that helps.
DD
April 10th, 2012 at 7:12 pm
Thanks DD.
April 10th, 2012 at 8:02 pm
Hey Slava,
With regards to 123, maybe, don’t quit on HGU just yet
Did you see this, someone posted it a while ago
calling for a bottom in gold mid April, impressive track record
http://watch.bnn.ca/#clip646638
best regards
Michael
April 10th, 2012 at 9:03 pm
SLAVA #12
Re TCW.TO
I have huge losses on this one also Slava – one needs cash to average down, so I just take the bleeding and hope against hope it will come back some day ( or someone will buy them out!) Same with Potash and now CNQ is also tanking big time.
April 10th, 2012 at 9:08 pm
Tawney #14
Congrats if you were in TZA – had my eye on it 3 days ago, but had to sell something to buy it, market opened and the stock I wanted to sell (at a small loss) dropped like a ton of bricks before I could do anything – TZA has gone up nicely for several days!
April 10th, 2012 at 9:18 pm
CJ,
you were holding SSL a while back, are you still holding it?
April 10th, 2012 at 10:09 pm
for Slava
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HGU.TO&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p40045963361
April 10th, 2012 at 10:17 pm
Slava , HGU.TO , OVERSOLD
ADX , +DI UNDER 10 = OVERSOLD , -DI ABOVE 40 ( EVEN 50 ) = OVERSOLD
PPO , -5 % = OVERSOLD , PPO measure the difference in % between 10EMA and 20 EMA , -5 % was a buying opportnity in last 5 years
TRIX was turning positive
so all the reason to buy . I bought 2 weeks ago at 10,21 based on this TA and still not good . But I am still holding it .
April 10th, 2012 at 10:28 pm
Maybe just maybe :to jump on bear ETF too late ?
For the bears , look at this chart :
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui
$NYA50R = stocks above 50 SMA = ONLY 25 % !
At 25 % we had a bottom few times = July and November 2009 , March 2011
Of course it can go lower to 10 % like in May 2010 and August 2011 .
But , yesterday was 50 , minus 15 today = 25 . Another day like today and 25-15 =10 % and the bottom is there .
In that situation , jumping on bear funds like TZA or HVU.TO could be ( COULD BE ) too late . So be careful . Maybe an intraday or 1-5 days trade ?
April 10th, 2012 at 10:29 pm
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYA50R&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p08539351286
April 10th, 2012 at 10:29 pm
KC
The post should be #34 from last Thursday. Just got home, another down day. Sure hope this is not a repeat of last year for the TSX.
Canuck thanks for the AmericanBull website.
DKW
April 10th, 2012 at 10:39 pm
spx drop today 1,7 % , another 1,7 % will be 1340 . support ? maybe .But oversold for sure .
April 10th, 2012 at 11:06 pm
Eve
gfs.to
the 5$ call was my call told KC if it failed to hold 6.15 it would hit 5.20.
April 10th, 2012 at 11:14 pm
Canuck , DKW ,
Regarding Americanbulls.com , If you are a subscriber , at which hour they update their signal ?
Thanks
April 10th, 2012 at 11:16 pm
Slava
CMG
did you miss the comment posted on that chart? if price crosses below 18MA GIRL YOU SHORT IT LIKE THERE WAS NO TOMORROW.
target 365-350$. where do these numbers come from 365 100MA held a as support a few times, and 350$ come from 150MA it held cmg afloat back in 2011.
April 10th, 2012 at 11:25 pm
rick
from your chart 12200 is next target it dropped 230 points like a wild beast so only 515 points to go can we make it in 2 days or are we to experience the 2008 and 2009 -800 points in one day imagine that buying at those lows once again.
I know some people who are salivating over this
>:[
April 10th, 2012 at 11:39 pm
tony
That is one cheezy smile! A very big pullback is very possible IMO.
N.A. markets may go up a little here and there over the next week or so, depending on earnings and more importantly company outlook going forward, but I think the trend will continue to go down during April, May just as Don V. has said it does historically for both Presidential Election year and years ending in 2. If there is no MENDING (bandage, kicking can) of European problems we can expect a large pull back. So, my Itiliano friend you may well get your wish. I personally would not LONG anything for any length of time.
April 10th, 2012 at 11:45 pm
CJ
TZA – yes doing very well with it and HVU and not ready to sell yet… any market moves up will be a chance to buy more bear cheaper, unless a big printing or the like happens. CJ, things can get worse here so be careful, moves up may be opportunity for selling or at least selling some… if stocks move up after selling and all’s well you can buy back… but holding and watching the red turn bloodier can be even more painful. If you sell, you can possibly make $ back on bears. Watch what goes on here. Gad, I’m tired – off to bed.
April 11th, 2012 at 12:40 am
Eve,
Do you think CUU.V is going to head higher from this $1.10 area? Its been moving sideways since the big gap down. So I’m inclined to think it will move from the mid Keltner where it is not to the lower, even though Stoch and RSI look positive. It seems to keep bouncing off the 200ma though.
Thanks,
KC
April 11th, 2012 at 1:08 am
Eve,
Received your email, will respond soon.