Pre-opening Comments for Tuesday April 10th
U.S. equity index futures are mixed this morning. S&P 500 futures are unchanged in pre-opening trade.
European equity markets are lower on growing concerns about sovereign debt. Interest rates on Spanish and Italian debt increased again.
Harley Davidson (HOG $46.92) is expected to open higher after Citigroup upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. Target was raised from $50 to $55.
Thompson Creek Metals (TC $6.21) is expected to open higher after Deutsche Bank upgraded the stock from Sell to Hold.
American International Group added $0.71 to $32.70 after Wells Fargo upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform.
Sony fell $1.50 to $18.60 after announcing a record loss for fiscal 2012.
SuperValu gained $0.71 to $6.10 after announcing higher than consensus fiscal fourth quarter earnings.
Harley Davidson Inc. (NYSE:HOG) – $46.92 after Citigroup upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. The stock has a deteriorating technical profile. Intermediate trend changed yesterday from up to neutral on a break below support at $48.00. Support is at $44.90 and resistance is at $50.96. The stock broke below its 20 day moving average last Wednesday and below its 50 day moving average yesterday. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index turned negative in the first week in March. Seasonal influences tend to peak near the end of April. Preferred strategy is to take profits on strength closer to its 20 day moving average at $49.10.
Harley-Davidson, Inc. (NYSE:HOG) Seasonal Chart
Sony Corp. (NYSE:SNE) – 18.60 fell 7.5% after the company announced a record loss for fiscal 2012. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock fell below its 50 and 200 day moving averages last week. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since late February. Preferred strategy is to avoid the stock.
Lots of downside technical action by U.S. stocks, ETFs and indices yesterday!
· The Dow Jones Industrial Average broke below short term support at 13,000 and its 50 day moving average at 12,980.10.
· Thirty one S&P 500 stocks broke support and changed trend. None broke resistance. Many more are trading just above support and are vulnerable to a break down. Stocks breaking support yesterday included Aflac, Applied Materials, Bank of New York, Boeing, Cablevision, Cincinatti Financial, DaVita, Dover, Duke Energy, Exxon Mobil, Fastenol, FLIR Systems, General Dynamic, Harman International, Health Care REIT, Janus Capital, Linear Technology, Motorola Solutions, Mylan Labs, Newell Rubbermaid, AGL Resources, NYSE Euronext, Oneok, Public Service Enterprises, Pulte Group, Sealed Air, Snap On, Tyson Foods, United Technologies and Walgreen. Following are the charts of prominent companies on the list:
Adrienne Toghraie’s “Trader’s Coach” Column
The Time For Renewal
By Adrienne Toghraie, Trader’s Success Coach
This is the time to think about where you are with your trading. It is the time of year that we all should reflect on renewal. For many of you, you just enjoyed the Easter celebration. I get to do it twice, perhaps to make sure that I get it. (Greek Easter is next week). It is also the time of Passover and spring is springing early.
While renewal can take place any time of year, with the birds returning and the flowers blooming with brilliant color it is almost time to sing, “June is busting out all over.”
It is time to make sure that you are making good choices in teachers, putting together a plan and making sure you have a strategy that that works.
For all of you beginners it is time to visualize a profitable future and make sure that you have the resources to make it happen.
You are actively trading live and have come to realize the self-sabotage that is keeping you from the next level of success. You have felt the loss of following your rules as well as not following rules. You have received the feedback from making mistakes. This is the time to move forward.
For all of those who are intermediate traders you must go back to the drawing board of your business plan if your strategy is not giving the results you thought it promised. If your strategy works, but you are not allowing the full potential of your strategy, then you need a trader’s coach.
You are seasoned enough to enjoy the benefits of being consistent and know that you can rely on a good income from trading. You have done all of the work, overcome the self-sabotage and living the life of a successful trader. But you have not joined the ranks of a Master trader.
For those who are advanced traders it is all about you developing yourself as intuitive/discretionary traders. To reach this level you must continue to work on yourself beyond overcoming the issues of the past. Here is where it is important to learn how to flow with the markets so that it will feel uncomfortable not to make the best choices.
Bob was a reluctant student
Bob did not attend my seminar with the enthusiasm that is typical of most of the participants. He was there because the institution that he was working for required him to fill a seat.
Bob found that most of the exercises were for other people and not him because he was the top trader of the group. One of my best clients, Rob, lived in the same city where I was conducting the seminar. I asked him to drop by for lunch and talk about his journey as a trader. Bob did not pay attention to Rob until he said that he was earning an average of 35 million since he worked with me and was a participant in my seminar. At that point Bob took over the conversation and drilled Rob about every detail of his journey as a trader and about working with me.
Talk about renewals. Through the rest of the seminar, Bob was attentive and the most out spoken participant. After that he insisted that I take him on as a private client as soon as possible. He is now a Master Trader.
Renewal can come at any time. It is all about the choice to decide that there will be positive changes in your life, deciding on the outcome that you want and taking action to make it happen.
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Keith Richards’ Blog
This week’s blog is on gold – opportunity or head fake? www.smartbounce.ca
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
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Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
10 Year U.S. Treasury Notes Futures (TY) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC April 9th 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).