ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Wednesday April 11th
U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures added 10 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to higher than consensus first quarter earnings and revenues reported by Alcoa. Alcoa was expected to report a $0.04 per share loss. It reported a profit of $0.10 per share. Alcoa is up $0.47 to $9.79 in pre-opening trade.
Eldorado Gold added $0.21 to $9.79 after Canaccord upgraded the stock from Hold to Buy. Target price is $19.
UBS initiated coverage on the U.S. retail merchandiser sector. Its top pick with a Buy recommendation is Nordstrom (JWN $53.46).
‘Tis the season for earnings warnings! Nokia fell $0.89 to $4.14 after lower guidance.
Bank of America added $0.21 to $8.75 after Guggenheim upgraded the stock from Neutral to Buy. Target is $11.
Technical Watch
Alcoa (NYSE:AA) – $9.79 gained 5.0% after the company reported higher than consensus first quarter earnings and revenues. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. Resistance is at $10.92 and at its 200 day moving average at $11.02. The stock recently fell below its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since the end of January. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Preferred strategy is to sell into strength closer to its 50 day moving average at $10.18.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00114.png "clip_image001[1]")
Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE:JWN) – $53.46 is expected to open higher after UBS initiated coverage with a Buy rating. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock recently touched an all-time high at $56.75.The stock trades above its 200 day moving average and appears ready to bounce from near its 50 day moving average at $53.10. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the end of January. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of May. However, short term momentum indicators are trending down. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock close to its 50 day moving average at $53.10.
![clip_image002[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00214.png "clip_image002[1]")
Nordstrom, Inc. (NYSE:JWN) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image003[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image228.png "clip_image003[1]")
Nokia Corp. (NYSE:NOK) – $4.14 fell 17.7% after the company lowered earning guidance. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock is expected to break support at $4.46 at the opening to reach a 14 year low. The stock trades below its 200 day moving average and recently fell below its 20 and 50 day moving averages. Short term momentum indicators are trending down. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since the end of October. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.
![clip_image004[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00412.png "clip_image004[1]")
Interesting Charts
The S&P 500 Index continues to show technical weakness. Yesterday, U.S. equity markets came under additional selling pressure when the S&P 500 Index broke below its 50 day moving average. Volume immediately ramped up. Short term momentum indicators continue to trend lower, but already are approaching oversold levels.
The TSX Composite Index continues to follow through its head and shoulders pattern. Weakness has been so substantial during the past week that the Index is now approaching its technical target of 11,687.
Weakness in the energy sector contributed significantly to weakness in the TSX Composite.
Weakness in the materials and industrial sectors on both sides of the border also contributed.
Weakness in industrial commodity prices contributed to weakness in the Materials sector.
The steel sector, a subsector of the Mines and Metals sector was particularly hard hit.
Weakness in energy and industrial commodity prices triggered weakness in the Canadian Dollar. It broke briefly below support at 99.60 U.S. cents.
Investor fears rose on both sides of the border. The VIX spiked again.
Weakness in markets outside of North America contributed. Sovereign debt concerns in Italy and Spain are having an impact.
Weakness spilled into emerging equity markets and Far East markets.
Tech Talk’s Weekly ETF Column
(Published yesterday at www.globeandmail.com)
Headline reads, “Current conditions favour inverse equity ETFs”. Following is a link to the comment:
Following is full text:
Inverse Equity ETFs
Equity markets around the world as well as most major sectors showed technical signs of an intermediate peak last week. “Buy when it snows, sell when it goes” is happening earlier than usual this year, typical of U.S. equity markets in a U.S. Presidential election years and years ending in “2”. Now is a good time to examine Exchange Traded Funds that appreciate when equity markets and sectors enter intermediate downtrends.
Investors have lots of choices. U.S. exchanges list 17 non-leveraged inverse equity ETFs and the Toronto Exchange lists five.
All inverse ETFs are based on short term notes and futures contacts designed to track the inverse performance on a daily basis of an underlying equity or sector index. Management expense ratios tend to be higher than average. Average management expense ratio for the 17 U.S. listed ETFs is 0.96 per cent and average expense ratio for the five Canadian listed ETFs is 1.15 per cent
The most actively traded inverse ETF is Short S&P 500 Proshares (SH $35.97). Institutional investors frequently use this ETF to hedge against a diversified portfolio of U.S. equities that are chosen to outperform the market at a time when the S&P 500 Index technically is overbought.
Other actively traded inverse U.S. equity index ETFs include Short Russell 2000 Proshares (RWM $26.46), Short Dow 30 Proshares (DOG $35.90), Short MSCI Emerging Market Proshares (EUM 29.24), Short QQQ Proshares (PSQ $25.57), Short MSCI EAFE Proshares (EFZ $47.57), Short MidCap 400 Proshares (MYY $27.26), Short Small Cap 600 Proshares (SBB $22.75).
Canadian inverse equity index ETFs include Horizons BetaPro S&P /TSX 60 Inverse ETF (HIX $11.12) and Horizons BetaPro S&P 500 Inverse ETF (HIU $6.92)
U.S. sector inverse ETFs include Short Financials Proshares (SEF $31.33), Short Oil & Gas Proshares (DDG $33.65), Short Basic Materials Proshares (SBM $35.38) and Short KBW Regional Banking Proshares (KRS $45.35).
Canadian sector inverse ETFs include Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Financials Inverse ETF (HIF $8.01), Horizons BetaPro S&P/TSX Capped Energy Inverse ETF (HIE $10.58) and Horizons BetaPro Global Gold Inverse ETF (HIG $12.43)
The most controversial inverse ETF is the AdvisorShares Active Bear ETF (HDGE $21.12). The fund holds short positions in an actively managed portfolio of U.S. listed equities.
Don Vialoux is the author of free daily reports on equity markets, sectors,
commodities and Exchange Traded Funds. . Daily reports are
available at http://www.timingthemarket.ca/. He is also a research analyst for
Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are his
personal views although they may be reflected in positions or transactions
in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management.
FP Trading Desk Headlines
FP Trading Desk headline reads, ”Why the TSX could outperform and what sectors to be in”. Following is a link:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/10/why-the-tsx-could-outperform-and-what-sectors-to-be-in/
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Why Spain is in much worse shape than anyone thinks”. Following is a link:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/10/why-spain-is-in-much-worse-shape-than-anyone-thinks/
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “Lumber stocks downgraded as spring seasonal trade ends”. Following is a link:
http://business.financialpost.com/2012/04/10/lumber-stocks-downgraded-as-spring-seasonal-trade-ends/
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Agricultural Products Industry Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC April 10th 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: AA, JWN, NOK
April 11th, 2012 at 5:48 am
Slava, Re your #123 from yesterday…. “Very Interesting ”
The buy/sell signals are very convincing.
So I am looking at GDM, GDX, & GDXJ for the next turning point.
Don’t see it yet though….. on 4 hr chart, daily, 2-day, or weekly.
“” 123.Slava Says:
April 10th, 2012 at 6:23 pm
Ron/BC’s Gold Renko Chart again:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$BPGDM&p=D&yr=2&mn=0&dy=0&id=p80234209192&a=241497573
Time to get bullish on gold stocks again? “”
April 11th, 2012 at 5:52 am
Can you pls look at a 6 mtht – daily RENKO of GDXJ & say what you are seeing.
It seems that GDXJ has longer lasting trends than GDM or GDX.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GDXJ&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p23703909314
April 11th, 2012 at 10:25 am
Eve, Tony,
Are you buying SPX bears this morning? SPX seems to be sitting at the 50dma and not climbing about 1373. I am inclined to think it would make sense to buy spxu or the like for a hold into the next few days. You concur?
KC
April 11th, 2012 at 10:29 am
Rami
Did your stop loss kick in on HVU? I sold some at $5.16, looking to buy back cheaper.
April 11th, 2012 at 10:32 am
We should be getting a short term bounce in here dues to short covering, these guys will be taking profits after several big down days.
In Margin account, bought back: MFC,SLF and MG on open. MFC the most oversold and has the best chart. All have very tight stops. I like the charts in these three for a bounce. Either they move up, or I get stopped out with minor losses.
Worth a shot…
April 11th, 2012 at 10:49 am
I think the key will be the Unemployment report tomorrow in the US. If it increases over last week, we are heading lower and vice versa. I would wait on putting any new positions until we receive that. Today thus far, is about 1/2 reversal from yesterday.
April 11th, 2012 at 10:54 am
KC
SPX vs SPXU
I was looking for a chart in a smaller time frame to help me out figure out should we go long or short this market. and I found this interesting on a 15min chart.
Since april 3rd SPX hasn’t been able to really take off above 50MA.
so for the time being until spx can’t make a real break through I think this market should go lower.
today’s action is normal since spx yesterday closed so far away from the 4MA either spx opened on 4MA or below and came in to tag it.
April 11th, 2012 at 10:57 am
Canuck,
Thank you for those tips as above. Any chance you’d be willing to share at what price, moving average or break of support, your stop losses for those 3 are set at?
Also, if I have’nt thanked you already, thank you again for all the great info in the past 4 to 5 days.
Thanks,
KC
April 11th, 2012 at 10:59 am
Canuck,
Dont you feel the 50MA will ack as resistance for MFC and MG? Are you looking at those in New York or Toronto?
Thanks
April 11th, 2012 at 11:03 am
I have no time today to be on the board but I just saw this and thought I should share it:
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/stock-market-analysis-four-year-cycle/4/4/2012/id/40234
e.
April 11th, 2012 at 11:04 am
Market Analysis
Think this market is a short all my indicators on a 15min and less chart have negative momentum behind them.
I might be to hasty if so I recommend having a stop loss should spx get above 1380
April 11th, 2012 at 11:07 am
Tony,
I am no expert, but I was thinking along the same lines. There is resistance at 1373 and 1380. But is yet to be seen if we close above 1373.
KC
April 11th, 2012 at 11:09 am
# 8 KC
What I’m doing is very risky. Is it gambling? you bet.
Charts on all 3 are oversold or getting oversold… getting very close to Dec lows… today should be short covering. Can’t have 6 down days in a row with out a couple of up days.
I’m looking at the RSI, STO and MACD… the last one is a lagging indicator, so not too important here. I’m also looking at the candlestick forming this morning for all 3, and so far, it is bullish, as it should be after so many down days. Bullish crossover on STO (momentum indicator) for MFC, the others in process…
Stops are just below yesterday’s lows, on an odd number (never on a round number).
So far I’m in the green on all three, but it’s early yet. Like I said, at this juncture risk reward ratio is good, as downside is limited to yesterday’s low, not that far from here, so loss potential is minimal, upside good.
For me, worth a shot. Either it works out or not.
I don’t care about the news, I’m looking at the chart only and it’s telling me what the market is thinking and wants to do.
April 11th, 2012 at 11:18 am
Some excellently substantiated logic from you Canuck. I see your point with regard to the charts.
In Gratitude,
KC
April 11th, 2012 at 11:25 am
SPY went down in last hour from S1 right down to mid-pivot point. Stalled right there for past 10 min (looking at 1 min chart). Now looks like it’s bouncing to the upside – will watch if it continues to move upwards or breaks below. Guess the 12 o’clock rally is coming!
April 11th, 2012 at 11:27 am
Hi Tawny,
No my HVU.TO stop loss was not filled because it opened much lower so maybe we will wait and see for a couple of days more. What do you think?
April 11th, 2012 at 11:35 am
Equity Clock – I wish I was reading this daily – I tend to forget – so much good info.
“Sentiment on Tuesday, as gauged by the put-call ratio, ended surprisingly neutral at 0.99. The market downturn came as little surprise to many investors that had been expecting a correction for some time, given the weakening market internals. This has led to a rather subdued reaction in option markets, although the volatility index (VIX), which is more of a measure of the price of options rather than volume, has spiked in the last couple of days. The unexpected must still be expected and right now the expectation amongst investors is that the correction will be shallow, just a minor pullback on the path to higher values. The risks still are not being respected, potentially setting the market up for a shock.”
Check out the charts and comments there… if you haven’t already…
http://www.equityclock.com/2012/04/11/stock-market-outlook-for-april-11-2012/#respond
April 11th, 2012 at 11:39 am
Anyone seriously interested in REE space, please have a good look at company called Great Western Minerals. Not a quick flip material, but long(er) term hold with some serious potential. Always do your DD!
April 11th, 2012 at 11:48 am
As soon as I posted #15, SPY started breaking to the downside – not much luck with guessing the trend direction – the rally might be off (for now).
April 11th, 2012 at 11:50 am
Tawny, Ron/AB, Eve,
Thank you for your comments yesterday. After many days in the red, I felt it was overdone and decided to let markets time to bounce. I am however looking at buying on the short side, but I am being patient.
Tawny,
You posted the calendar for the issuance of european bonds over the next few weeks last week. I believe it was from Zerohedge. Do you remember on what day it was published? I should have printed it. Europe remains the wild card and any failed bond auction is a potential trigger. Thanks.
April 11th, 2012 at 11:52 am
Rami
The markets are losing strength – also look at my post #17 from Equity Clock and HVU is gaining so you can make your decision form lots of the info posted on the board.
Personally I obviously regret that I sold some of my shares of HVU (at a good profit) but I will likely buy back at a higher price! Even Europe is considerably down from its highs today.
Pedrsonally, overall, I think it’s a good idea to keep nibbling at bears. None are near the sell signals at this time. I still like TZA and HVU, SPXU is on a buy and so is the Nasdaq bear etfs.
April 11th, 2012 at 11:58 am
Martine
Sorry I do not remember
- suggest you keep checking Zero Hedge throughout the day because a great deal of information is there regarding Europe and can be a big help… also you can try a search to find what you are looking for…. this might help you, I hope.
April 11th, 2012 at 11:59 am
Martine – sample :
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/stocks-stalled-post-nfp-vwap-european-banks-resume-freefall
April 11th, 2012 at 12:06 pm
Martine,
The market bounce today was some what predictable but I think the bias is still bearish for now. The tight intraday range I have on the $SPX is 1365/9-1375. If it closes above 1375 on a 60 min chart there is a day trade or overnight opportunity to 1390. The safer bet is to go short at 1390 if it gets’s there. If it closes below 1365 then the bounce may be over.
April 11th, 2012 at 12:12 pm
HVU tested pivot at 5.47 (on 1 min) and failed so far
April 11th, 2012 at 12:13 pm
# 14 KC
Take a look at the TSX daily chart….
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TSX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p43238773140
Note the RSI line bouncing off the 30 line…when was the last time we saw that? The Dec. lows and Oct lows. This means we are at a similar low point….IMO time for a reversal, just like last time.
Note yesterday’s candlestick… bullish hammer, long tail down. Today we have, so far, a smaller bullish candlestick, if it holds above today’s low at the close, we are good.
Look at the Full STO…well below 20 (oversold) and bullish crossover forming… we should get a reversal soon…
Doesn’t mean we can’t go lower, for sure… however, for next few days, I would expect a bounce in here, betond that we will see what develops.
I would ignore the 50 DMA and the 200 DMA as we are in well into Bear territory,so doesn’t matter until we get close to the averages again…. resistance.
If we hold in here, we have a series of higher lows since Oct…..bullish.
April 11th, 2012 at 12:44 pm
Re: TSX
I agree with Canuck that the TSX is oversold and may be close to a bottom. It can still go lower becuase there is no confirmation of a bounce yet, but the TSX is more oversold then the SPX and is closer to a bottom and potential bounce. Everyone has their own way of deciding on an entry point. If the TSX does bounce I would expect 12200-12250 to be initial resistance and 12355 needs to be broken for the downtrend to be halted.
April 11th, 2012 at 12:53 pm
Just noticed that Trican is at $14.07.. was a good buy yesterday at $12.75.
April 11th, 2012 at 12:54 pm
tony, I shorted 300 CMG around $424.50.. it’s holding up very well unfortunately compared to pcln.
April 11th, 2012 at 12:58 pm
Slava,
Congratulations if you bought TCW yesterday. It is coming up to resistance at 14.22-14.25.
April 11th, 2012 at 1:01 pm
Ron, I did on margin at $12.75 and unloaded it at $12.99 yesterday, unfortunately.
April 11th, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Hi All,
Is anybody having problems with Scotiaitrade?
April 11th, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Damn itrade is down and I wanted to cover my cmg short.. so frustrating!
April 11th, 2012 at 1:37 pm
Living on dividend stocks during retirement.
You may want to look at BNN 1:00PM to 1:30PM today
Studies show the next 15 years show you will likely have negative returns.
Is this the real relality?
April 11th, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Slava
Not using stops anymore? I am surprised that you shorted CMG again, the upward trend is still in place.
April 11th, 2012 at 1:40 pm
Slava,
I guess you are also having trouble with Itrade.
April 11th, 2012 at 1:41 pm
mick, I didn’t put a stop loss since I knew I could watch it.. I didn’t expect not being able to log in. Still on hold with Itrade. I’ll have to ask them for compensation. This is happening 2nd time in one month.
April 11th, 2012 at 1:53 pm
mick, when it comes to CMG, what technical events will confirm the end of the trend? CMG did drop below 4,9 and 18day MA yesterday – I suppose like many other stocks. I think it’s strong today on the strength of the restaurant sector in general.
April 11th, 2012 at 1:59 pm
I think GMCR is looking rather strong.. I bought 1k shares back today. May hold for a few days.
April 11th, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Well, it looks like itrade being down was a blessing after all.. and the website is working again.
April 11th, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Well if this is factual, may be time to start buying FAZ or SK or short US bank ETF – or??? Anyone that is capable, could you please analyse these documents and give feedback…
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/nyse-march-cash-etf-volumes-slide-nearly-30-compared-year-earlier
“The six largest U.S. lenders, including JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) and Wells Fargo & Co., may post an 11 percent drop in first-quarter profit, threatening a rally that has pushed bank stocks 19 percent higher this year.
The banks will post $15.3 billion in net income when adjusted for one-time items, down from $17.3 billion in last year’s first quarter, according to a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Trading revenue at the biggest lenders is projected to fall 23 percent to $18.3 billion, according to Morgan Stanley analysts, who didn’t include their firm or Wells Fargo.”
April 11th, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Ooops #41 that should be SKF Ultra short financials
April 11th, 2012 at 2:16 pm
And this is the source for ZeroHedge – Bloomberg
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-11/profit-drop-at-u-s-banks-imperils-rally.html
April 11th, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Slava,
CMG would seem to like a hold rather than a short. As per what I see, 4/9/18ma had no crosses. 18ma is still trending upward, and CMG has not broken the uptrend line from November 2011. Its getting close to Eve’s mid KEltner, but has not broken below mid Keltner. This is where we all miss Eve
Looks like a risky short even at this stage. But I am no expert.
KC
April 11th, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Slava
re: CMG
are you talking price below the 4/9/18 or the 4 ma dropping below the 9ma/18ma. I think you are referring to price. I do not think that is a good determination on whether you should buy/sell. I can see if the 4ma moved below the 18ma, you might try a short, but as you know, price can fluctuate alot on a daily basis, doesn’t mean the trend has changed.
April 11th, 2012 at 2:18 pm
Someone one this board recommended T.ADV about a year ago – thank you. It is a stock worth watching. Article on ADV in yesterday’s Globe and Mail. I can not attach the link to this article.
April 11th, 2012 at 2:25 pm
Zero Hedge takeaway form the Fed’s Beige Book…
Here come the headlines from the beige anachronism:
FED SAYS ECONOMY EXPANDED AT MODEST TO MODERATE PACE IN MARCH
FED SAYS MANUFACTURERS CONCERNED ABOUT RISING PETROLEUM PRICES
FED: HIRING WAS STEADY OR SHOWED MODEST GAINS IN MOST DISTRICTS
FED SAYS `UPWARD PRESSURE ON WAGES WAS CONSTRAINED’
SOME FED DISTRICTS SAY RISING GAS PRICES MAY INHIBIT CONSUMERS
Where is the beige app? or beige pdf straight to kindle? What is this – book thing? Anyway no QE on the horizon based on this.
Link to the beige pdf which nobody ever reads anyway.
April 11th, 2012 at 2:26 pm
wow, PCLN really cratered today.. too bad I didn’t short pcln today.
April 11th, 2012 at 2:29 pm
mick, thanks for #45.
April 11th, 2012 at 2:30 pm
hmm.. well, I’m still holding COG and beginning to wonder if I should.
April 11th, 2012 at 2:31 pm
CMG trades virtually in tandem with AAPL (Eve mentioned it earlier).. strangest thing since these two companies have nothing to do with each other.
April 11th, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Final target on Nasty gas hit this morning at $ 2.00. Looking for a range of 1.75 – 1.90 now. Continue short in long term account.
April 11th, 2012 at 2:43 pm
Slava
I think that COG is mostly nat gas. Michael posted a comment either Monday or last week from Canaccord where they have a buy rating and $66 target. With Wayne’s comment above, that price target might not come about so quickly. Cog is still has a downward bias but it’s price has stayed within a trading range during the past week or so
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p96762934888&a=263830533
April 11th, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Anyone been looking at UUU.To? Appreciate some thoughts on whether its starting to looks like it might be turning around from bottom. One to watch ?
KC
April 11th, 2012 at 2:45 pm
mick, I should have put a stop loss on cog.. oh well. Can’t get everything right. Covered CMG short at a decent 1day profit, watching pcln, might buy for the final hour, don’t know yet.
April 11th, 2012 at 2:47 pm
CMG,
Slava, Crammer was pumpin CMG last night or today. Pretty compelling story to BUY long. No debt, expanding, (150 new this year, and tons more to go) and a great unique menu. Slava, CMG doesn’t owe you anything, don’t fight it. It’s a great growth story.
b
April 11th, 2012 at 2:54 pm
Looks like “they” will be trying to prop up PCLN in the final hour.. I’m in.
April 11th, 2012 at 2:54 pm
Hi Slava. You could have also bought TZOO. I sold mine today…woohoo! I may buy it back this week.
April 11th, 2012 at 3:06 pm
Hi KC. Nice bounce off support for UUU from oversold conditions. Not sure why it’s up today, but it apparently has one of the lowest price-to-earnings growth ratios around.
April 11th, 2012 at 3:13 pm
Hi Wayne. What a crazy day for oil…and I thought that the numbers were bearish! Just wondering if you are still short silver.
April 11th, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Michael, I got lucky with pcln.. rode it up around $3.50/share and sold before it headed down again.
April 11th, 2012 at 3:15 pm
Michael
If you have time after market close – cna you give me your take on my posts # 41 and #43. I am not sure wether to trust this info – as I said if this is true time to gather FAZ or ? sorry for typos
April 11th, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Hey Michael,
I have stepped away from day trading Oil for the time being – long story. I am back to swing trading currencies (long the Yen). A trading bud of mine hit a 4 bagger trading the Euro last week – so we are both into the Yen trade. I got out of silver the friday before Bennywacky spoke. I expected something wicked to come.
I also bot SPXU last Thursday when it dropped below 1400 – still holding.
My long term account still holds HND – my winner for the year so far.
April 11th, 2012 at 3:36 pm
Slava,
Just an observation on the chart about COG it bounced 2 times before around $30 so it might be doing that again otherwise then it might be heading much lower if the market tanks.
April 11th, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Hi Tawny. Ever since the financial debacle, I have been so sceptical about American banks (and as an ex-banker, I think there is some minor fudging that goes along with Canadian banks). So even with they report, I don’t always believe the numbers. With that being said, trading revenues will be down for most, but loan losses should be okay given the improving economy. I think some banks will beat expectations; others will likely be a bit disappointing. FAZ scares me, but I see your point. I would prefer a single inverse here just because I’m cynical about the industry.
Here’s something that adds to my cynicism:
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47014808
April 11th, 2012 at 3:43 pm
Rami, I agree.. if $29+ range doesn’t hold on COG than it’s likely to drop to $25 and lower.. My gut told me to get rid of it this morning but I was too busy looking at other stocks.
April 11th, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Hi Wayne. You have a yen for yen…I love it! I’m not smart enough to trade currencies, plus I have enough gray hair. One of things that I’m looking at is Molson Coors. Oversold here, but reluctant to buy because I hate the product. Sometimes my taste buds rule over my brain cells!
April 11th, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Hi Frank, do you still like Encana?
April 11th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
and then there is HGU.. I’m rolling my eyes.. stupid Slava!
April 11th, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Tawny,
Just trying to see if I have company in HVU.TO
Are you going to hold over night today?
Seems like it could head much higher tomorow after todays drop and bounce to me.
April 11th, 2012 at 3:50 pm
Michael,
I also spent some time in a bank (20+ years). Transferring non-performing loans to an asset account prior to earnings reports was a common practice – one of our popular Canadian banks was caught doing this in the mid-90′s – paid the fine and carried on. Not reported in the funny papers. One of several “non-line transfers” that occured.
I have never trusted annual reports – but the talking heads use them to justify crazy valuations. I shake my head whenever a “bank analyst” pounds the table with his price targets. Time to short.
April 11th, 2012 at 3:57 pm
Michael,
The BIG advantage to trading currencies is that they trend well. There’s a seasonal trade that happens in the Yen almost every year at this time – it bounces here April -May and lasts through to November. I trade the options on FXY. I roll the options – first one expires in June.
April 11th, 2012 at 4:08 pm
KC
CMG
Love your take on cmg but and this is a big BUT cmg usually hits the 9MA and bounces off of it, and a few times cmg went as low as the 18MA but never crossed below this MA until recently.
Now on a second note if you look closely at indicators on this one the MAs
April 11th, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Michael #58 – Nice Trade!!! Did you suspect it would pop like that? That is quite a volume of buyers for the day!
April 11th, 2012 at 4:26 pm
Michael
Well, I did not know you were an ex-banker. Fancy that. Can see how you would have a particular viewpoint. Thanks for the feedback.. I am hoping that there will not be too much fudging and if the reporting comes in as per the posts above, the sector should fall. FAZ is on a buy signal so I did put some money there near the end of the day. This is alo interesting – admit that I do not fully understand it, but enough – gad, itred again
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/global-systemic-risk-rising-rapidly-again
“The risk of the 30 most systemically important financial institutions (SIFI) in the world has risen over 30% in the last three weeks as the effects of LTRO fade and encumbrance becomes the new reality.”
April 11th, 2012 at 4:28 pm
Ken – Re #46 ADV.TO Alderon Iron –
We did exchange a few words about it last year.
Good trader on a daily chart.
Story still developing.
It has held UP better than Adrianna – ADI-V
and so many other iron & steel stocks.
All the while TSXV has been sliding.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?TSXV,ADI.V,ADV.TO,X,NUE,CLF,MT,AKS,|D|V30
Look at one year of data………
April 11th, 2012 at 4:29 pm
Tony,
CMG
Sorry, are you essentially saying that since price crosses below the 18MAs more than once recently, that this might be the beginning of a pullback? Was your last sentence in #73 incomplete?
KC
April 11th, 2012 at 4:34 pm
Tony, Eve, Ron/AB, Mick,
What is your take on GLD right now? Do you see it as being in a downward channel? It seems like it closed right at the downtrend line from March today, so do we not consider that as a break above trendline? However, Stoch have turned positive but RSI(21) still below 50. AND it is sitting just below mid-Keltner. So could that mean then thats its heading back to lower Keltner?
Confused,
KC
April 11th, 2012 at 4:49 pm
KC, # 54 UUU.TO
Compare it with CCJ.to and NLR …… These seem to move together.
http://stockcharts.com/freecharts/candleglance.html?NLR,CCO.TO,CCJ,UUU.TO,|D|V20
Look at one year of data, put on an aroon 20 (all on a sell signal right now)
I am short cco-to. A move above the 20 sma will get me OUT, and then LONG cco-to.
April 11th, 2012 at 4:58 pm
On an hourly chart UUU-t is a buy just today.
CCO and NLR still have not made up their minds to start going up.
http://www.freestockcharts.com?emailChartID=b952c1af-4b4a-4f49-afb5-ffec2cd64991
April 11th, 2012 at 5:04 pm
Tony/Eve/Michael/Canuck:
Is it safe to still hang on to this? It has been an amazing ride while everything else was heading South but it will likely drop back to the 4 in the morning?
WIN.TO have had good news on the legal front (US Patents) and are also buying back shares, so not certain which news has caused the sudden rise. Not at break even, but it sure is nice to be this close! Have held it since Dec 22/11.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WIN.TO&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p74245888845
April 11th, 2012 at 5:07 pm
KC
GLD has had a downward bias since Sept of last year. the daily chart shows alot of gap up/downs the weekly smooths that out. I wouldn’t be in a hurry to buy here, I would wait for a confirmation that it has turned. If you do buy, you might want to consider using a stop, just in case it doesn’t work out as expected.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GLD&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p59714703704&a=264100372
April 11th, 2012 at 5:13 pm
Here’s another one we should have all ridden up today!
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=NEWL&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p64136972977
April 11th, 2012 at 5:35 pm
KC
i have been watching UUU.to as well. May not br able to fight the market to be able to move up. Still on the watch list bouncing off hard support.
Rami
I added to my positon on HVU.to and am holding overnight.
April 11th, 2012 at 5:35 pm
This MUST be shared too:
http://www.minyanville.com/business-news/markets/articles/google-goog-apple-aapl-pricelinepcln-stocks/4/9/2012/id/40280
very apropos
eve
April 11th, 2012 at 6:00 pm
#81- CJ
Tale the money an run…lol
April 11th, 2012 at 6:01 pm
take the money and run…oops
April 11th, 2012 at 6:30 pm
Canuck2004 #86/87
Now should I count that as 2 votes for sell LOL
American Bull suggests HOLD
Anyone else like to put in their oar? I will listen carefully!
April 11th, 2012 at 6:35 pm
Hi CJ. I would be inclined to agree with Canuck2004, and would either sell or reduce WIN. There could be some upgrades tomorrow, and hopefully that will provide a better exit point. While I don’t follow the stock, I would think that the gap at $5.50 could close sooner rather than later.
As for TZOO, I subscribe to their service and have taken advantage of some of their advertised deals. I started following the stock last fall and have traded it a few times. Below $30 there was often talk of being taken over. I got lucky on this one.
April 11th, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Michael #89
Thank you Michael, we now have two oars in the water and that should keep my little boat from going in circles
I won’t be able to watch during the day, so I would have to put in a limit bid….. I never get these things right. As for TZOO a little luck goes a long way!
April 11th, 2012 at 7:30 pm
Ron Lew; Alderon have brought on some big names (former Newfoundland/Labrador Premier, M&A lawyer, etc) to help move this project along. I have traded it a few times over the last year and currently holding it, not planning to sell it as word has it some big news likely coming out in the next couple of months. Grandich really likes ADV, although he is a bit of a pumper, he says he has alot of personal money in ADV. I really follow the fundamentals of the stocks I own – especially important with juniors. Holding 3 juniors and all are doing well. Although I trade daily, I am not often on the board. Thanks again.
April 11th, 2012 at 9:42 pm
Cj
Not sure why win.to went up the last 2 days, but having it above the 20,3 keltner and overbought , i would be out. You can try putting in a stop limit at around 5.81 and see what happens tomorrow. It may just continue up so you can ride it up a bit, good luck.
April 11th, 2012 at 10:37 pm
KC
73.
sorry for that, had a bit of trouble,
ok so what I was saying if you look at the chart since January price never crossed below 18MA, but recently did it 2times in less then 5days.
now second part was if you look at the indicators.
W%R we have lower lows since march.
MACD MA slope has been negative since the beginning of the year but lately the slope has been steeper.
If I am wrong 430-435 she has a stop loss on.
April 11th, 2012 at 11:08 pm
NTR
Hey mick and Michael, are you watching Canucks tonight?
April 11th, 2012 at 11:10 pm
Slava
Yes, i assume you are also?
April 11th, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Mick, Hurk, Rol Lew, Tony – Thank you for your input today! Just getting back home to read them all now at midnight.
April 11th, 2012 at 11:11 pm
Tony, I think Gran Tierra is going to have a very good day tomorrow.. I may buy first thing in the am..
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gran-tierra-energy-confirms-new-oil-discovery-with-2525-bopd-production-test-at-ramiriqui-1-colombia-2012-04-11-20000
April 11th, 2012 at 11:12 pm
mick, I’m coming over!
April 11th, 2012 at 11:15 pm
NTR
My “Magnificent Michael” is watching Canucks with his gay friends.. I’m sure they are all drooling over his Cancun tan…lol
April 11th, 2012 at 11:20 pm
Slava
Why weren’t you invited? Is he worried, that your tan would be more appealing?
April 11th, 2012 at 11:21 pm
Anyone aware of any news about SAP.TO today?
Eve,
I hope you read this. SAP.TO jumped above resistance from October/11 and March/12 today. I hope it stays above that.
April 11th, 2012 at 11:24 pm
mick, “guys night out”.. I think this is what it’s called, right? I’m okay with that.. at the same time I’m not sure if I’m comfortable with a bunch of men lusting after my “boyfriend”..lol.. they must sense he is “off the charts”. Anyways, way too much info from me, as usual!
April 11th, 2012 at 11:29 pm
mick, I’m very angry with myself for not putting a stop loss under COG. I broke my rule, again!! What’s wrong with me.. just can’t be consistently disciplined.
April 11th, 2012 at 11:30 pm
Tony,
Thanks for 93. If you have a chance can you give a brief line about how to use W%R
KC
April 11th, 2012 at 11:38 pm
Slava
That is a bit tough but cog might recover. I do think you are getting alot better with stops. I believe at one time you would never consider them. Unfortunately, sometimes it takes losses to create that discipline, you will be fine.
April 11th, 2012 at 11:39 pm
We haven’t seen Lin for some time.. Lin are you still travelling?
April 11th, 2012 at 11:41 pm
CJ
Win.to
CJ I have been yelling to this stupid computer for the last 15min.
contrarian to the rest of the group.
(OK AMZN I was wrong…220, but was right the time before that you it was going to 170.)
4MA at today’s close is 5.405
now why am I yelling my sons and wife are asleep OK this is a muttered yell to my computer.
if you recall back in early feb I said 50MA was a resistance that needed to hold.
it didn’t. now we didn’t only break above the 50 that we closed yesterday above 100 and today above 150 we are shy of the high from beginning of the year.
Closing the gap… why not close that gap from back in mid november hun? that gap is at 7.31
Ok I took a close hard look at the chart back in may it took 7 days before retreating then in october up big another 6 days. we have already 3 so lets put a sell on next monday or tuesday?.
I don’t know where it will retreat to but darn I would like to be in it for the long haul. especially if they won a patent case this could mean at least 7$
BTW the following was just taken now while my last paragraph was writen about 5min ago.
Options not much activity on it but something interesting is that in october where we found the most volume for 7 calls for and we have july with s vol of 50 at 6 and vol of 50 at 7.
so I think for the time being 7 could be your resistance to sell out and come back probably in the 5-6$ range.
so
Ok this is what I would do if not sure sell some but not all here. if it does retreat you probably could get a better deal
I don’t know where its going to open my only concern is how much money can this baby deliver to your account.
April 11th, 2012 at 11:47 pm
mick, you are very kind
I should still put a stop loss .. perhaps just below $29? What do you think?
April 11th, 2012 at 11:49 pm
tony, you are still up? Getting pretty late in your heck of the woods. What do you think of COG? It looks like it’s in trouble.
April 11th, 2012 at 11:49 pm
Does anyone agree that DH.TO looks like a good Short here, for at least a quick short cover around the $17.80 area? I’m looking at RSI, Keltner, Stoch, 4/9/18ma crosses and break of trend line that says I should short.
Thanks
KC
April 11th, 2012 at 11:51 pm
Hmm… COG chart doesn’t look good, I’m seeing head and shoulders formation.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COG&p=W&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p43067574461
April 11th, 2012 at 11:58 pm
Slava
Cog at $29 might not be a bad limit, if it falls below that it will probably go to $28 , especially if nat gas keeps falling. Price did close out of the box , not a good sign, even with the nice run up on the markets today
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p96762934888&a=263830533
April 11th, 2012 at 11:59 pm
COG-N seems to be in a downtrend, not indications of a bounce yet.
April 12th, 2012 at 12:02 am
mick, and also 50day crossed 200day – don’t they call it a “death cross”?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=COG&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p90542558128
April 12th, 2012 at 12:06 am
Mick – Any thoughts on DH.TO please ?
April 12th, 2012 at 12:11 am
CJ
sorry here is my chart from last feb on win.to with all the details on it.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=WIN.TO&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p03949639248&a=255954013
April 12th, 2012 at 12:15 am
Slava
You are right about the 50/200 cross, not a good sign. In my view once the 5 crosses the 65, that is when you definitely get out, especially if you see that on the weekly chart. Hope you can make ome money on this one or at least limit your loss, the futures are up so maybe not all is lost.
April 12th, 2012 at 12:18 am
mick, sorry for interrupting your hockey watching time
LA just scored 2nd time.. not good.
April 12th, 2012 at 12:24 am
Kc
Not sure about shorting this one , currently it is still in an upward trend on both the daily and weekly charts and it really doesn’t have alot of volume. It does have a nice yield and have not heard that it is in jeopardy.
April 12th, 2012 at 12:26 am
Slava
Too many penalties!
April 12th, 2012 at 12:27 am
So back to GTE.. higher lows and higher highs, new oil discovery, seasonality is right, great fundamentals, low P/E, no debt and cash in the bank. In other words – it’s a BUY.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GTE&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p05976404133
April 12th, 2012 at 12:28 am
mick, Canucks scored! Yeah.. such a fast paced game tonight. I hope they go all the way this time!
April 12th, 2012 at 1:09 am
KC
W%R(7)
Here is the 411 on this indicator.
most rules are the same as any other indicator except this one tends to be a bit faster goes more often then none in oversold or overbought territory.
Rule 1#
Higher low then previous oversold is a time to buy the next time price crosses above 50. and a lower high when in overbought territory means its time to sell next time price moves below 50.
Some use 14 but when the market is bearish people get the urge to pull the trigger, well using a 7 most often then none you can pull the trigger but for short term trades(a couple of days at most.)
look at my bac chart if you compare rsi7 to W%R7
back on march 7th both crossed above 50 but on the 12th RSI was already tagging the 50 while W%R was way above this level so you would had anticipated RSI to move lower so you would have sold and been wrong as the 13th its started its rally from 8 to 10 (little voice in back of your head would have said don’t trust it as its a trap)
April 12th, 2012 at 1:12 am
KC
here is bac chart.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p54881528831&a=260204541
April 12th, 2012 at 1:19 am
slava
cog if you recall CJ was asking this one back in the month of feb.
I was against it while others where for it.
I saw a no real opportunity back then as price was at 34 I said if it pulled back to 32 I would go for it as reward would have been greater then at 34 price moved to 38 and then pulled back.
I see no reasons to buy this one at this time. indicators are still negative.
April 12th, 2012 at 1:22 am
will come back tomorrow see if any good stock recommendation or to review what is a buy or a sell.
April 12th, 2012 at 1:30 am
tony, thanks and good night. Sleep well.
April 12th, 2012 at 1:31 am
mick/nv #92
Appreciate your thoughts; and will be on top of “Winnie” when market opens; she tends to take huge leaps north at or near the opening, then fights to keep her gains throughout the day. I will not be able to watch after about 10:30am, so hope I get a chance to figure out my moves by then. Thanks Mick – a few more oars & I’ll have a war canoe!!