ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Thursday April 12th
U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures added 2 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures weakened slightly following release of economic news at 8:30 AM EST. Consensus for weekly jobless claims was 355,000 versus a revised 367,000 last week. Actual was 380,000. Consensus for March Producer Prices was a gain of 0.3% versus an increase of 0.4% in February. Actual was unchanged. Consensus for March core PPI was unchanged from February. Actual was a gain of 0.3%. Consensus for the U.S. February Trade Deficit was $52.0 billion versus $52.6 billion in January. Actual was $46.03 billion.
SunTrust launched coverage on the internet computer services sector. Stocks rated as a Buy include Google with a target of $750, Web.com with a target of $18, Netflix with a target of $124 and Linkedin with a target of $134.
BMO Capital launched coverage with the Investment Services industry. Stocks rated as Outperform included Blackrock with at target of $240 and Invesco with a target of $30.
AT&T added $0.62 to $30.75 after JP Morgan upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight. Target was raised from $31 to $33.
Nokia slipped another $0.15 to $4.09 after Societe General downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold.
Technical Watch
Google, Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) – $639.00 gained 0.5% after SunTrust launched coverage on the stock with Buy rating and a $750 target price. The company is scheduled to release quarterly results after the close today. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $564.55 and resistance is at $670.25. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages and is expected to open above its 20 day moving average at the opening. Short term momentum indicators are oversold and trying to bottom. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the end of January. Seasonal influences currently are positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00115.png "clip_image001[1]")
Google Inc. (NASDAQ:GOOG) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/image.png "clip_image002[1]")
AT&T (NYSE:T) – $30.75 added 2.1% after JP Morgan upgraded the stock from Neutral to Overweight. Target was raised from $31 to $33. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $28.62 and resistance is at $31.52. The stock trades above its 200 day moving average and bounced from near its 50 day moving average at $30.36 yesterday. Short term momentum indicators are oversold. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been slightly positive since mid-February. Seasonal influences currently are positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00314.png "clip_image003[1]")
AT&T Inc. (NYSE:T) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image397.png "clip_image004[1]")
Weekly Review of Select Sector SPDRs
Technology
· Intermediate trend is up. The intermediate trend line was broken earlier this week.
· Fell below its 20 day MA, but remains above its 50 and 200 day moving average.
· Short term momentum indicators and are trending down.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Materials
· Intermediate trend changed from up to down on a break below support at $35.66. Resistance is at $37.65 and $37.83.
· Remains above its 200 day moving average, but below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators continue to trend down.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Consumer Discretionary
· Intermediate trend is up. The uptrend line was broken earlier this week. Resistance has formed at $45.56.
· Fell below its 20 day moving average and is testing its 50 day moving average.
· Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Industrials
· Intermediate trend changed from up to neutral following a break below support at $35.79. Resistance is at $38.11 and support is at $30.73.
· Short term momentum indicators continue to trend down.
· Remains below its 20 day moving average and fell below its 50 day moving average.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Energy
· Intermediate trend is down. Resistance is at $76.21 and $75.47.
· Trades below its 20 and 50 day moving averages and fell below its 200 day moving average on Tuesday.
· Short term momentum indicators continue to trend down and already are oversold.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Financials
· Intermediate trend is up. Its intermediate uptrend line was broken earlier this week. Resistance has formed at $16.01.
· Remains below its 20 day moving average and is testing its 50 day moving average.
· Short term momentum indicators continue to trend down.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains negative.
Consumer Staples
· Intermediate trend is up. Its intermediate uptrend line was broken earlier this week. Resistance is at $34.42.
· Short term momentum indicators continue to trend down.
· Fell below its 20 day moving average, but remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive
Health Care
· Intermediate trend is up. The intermediate uptrend line was broken on Tuesday. Resistance is forming at $38.00.
· Fell below its 20 day moving average, but remains above its 50 and 200 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Utilities
· Intermediate trend is up. Support is at $33.83 and resistance is at $35.94.
· Fell below its 20 and 50 day moving averages.
· Short term momentum indicators are trending down.
· Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index remains positive.
Thackray’s Market Letter
Brooke Thackray’s monthly market letter was released yesterday. Highlights include:
· A technical update on the S&P 500 Index
· A summary of holdings in HAC on March 31st
· An examination of the energy sector, a sector that has not performed as usual this spring.
· An explanation of why now is a good time to be conservative with equity holdings
· A summary of upcoming opportunities: Consumer Staples/Consumer Discretionary pair trade, the Intel/AMD pair trade, the Canadian Dollar, Waste Management and Bonds.
Brooke’s letter is free. To subscribe, please email www.alphamountain.com
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The Financial Philosopher |
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Ken Norquay, CMT Partner, Castlemoore Inc. |
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Bird Flu April 11, 2012 |
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It seemed like a bad joke. Earlier this year, a Dutch biologist developed a strain of bird flu that is both deadly and very contagious. We are not sure if this danger was being hyped, as so many flu stories are, but reports were saying this virus could kill half the earth’s population. The concern is that it could find its way into Jihad terrorists’ hands and become a biological murder-suicide weapon. Doesn’t this seem crazy? And the U.S. government provided financing for the research to develop it! Sit and ponder this for a while: how did this super virus come into existence?
It was intentional. Some person or group of people intended to develop a virus capable of killing half the world’s population. I am certain the American government officials who financed the research and the genius biologists who developed the virus had concocted an excellent-sounding reason to work on such a project. It must be akin to the intention of Albert Einstein when he worked on his nuclear physics project: his discoveries led to the development of the atomic bomb — another case of good intentions gone wrong.
What’s needed here is a committee of Irish philosophers headed by the notorious Mr. Murphy, namesake of that famous law. Their job would be to look at these projects with an eye to Murphy’s Law: if something can go wrong, it will go wrong. Surely these great scientists can envision the impact of their own discoveries on the war-like tribes that currently inhabit this planet! It seems like a bad joke at which nobody’s laughing.
But the scientific community isn’t the only one to indulge in extreme naiveté. The financial community has taken us to the edge. In the greed-inspired mortgage fiasco during the first few years of this century, American mortgage lenders blew the brains out of the mortgage and real estate markets in the USA. To make matters worse, greed-inspired investment dealers sold that mortgage paper to banks all over the world. The consequence of this wild, irresponsible action was the mortgage crisis of 2007/2008. And the consequence of that mortgage crisis was that many Canadians saw the value of their RRSPs drop by 30% to 40%.
2011 revealed yet another example of financial craziness. This time it was whole nations who went crazy. They call them the Euro pigs: Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain. Their governments borrowed so much money that now they’re unable to pay it back. And the European banks who own these nations’ debt instruments are in deep trouble. We’ve got another banking crisis on our hands. It seems like another bad joke, but once again, no one’s laughing.
Do we live in the age of naiveté? Do people not realize the consequence of their own actions?
Our government tells us that Canadians are seriously in debt. Mortgage debt, credit card debt, personal loans: Canadians are in over their heads. On average, ordinary Canadians have borrowed far more than they can afford to pay back. My friends in the consumer banking business tell me that the worst offenders are lining up to get even more in debt. Apparently they just don’t get it. Apparently the concept of paying back your debts is not a part of their repertoire.
The underlying theme of this financial naiveté is that, when they borrow money, people aren’t thinking about paying back their debts. Whether it’s American home-buyers, European countries, or Canadian consumers, they all seem to have forgotten that debt has to be repaid. And in doing so, they’ve created a financial super virus.
In my investment book, Beyond the Bull, I talk about having personal investment techniques. An investment technique has two parts: buying and selling. It’s just like a loan: the two parts of a loan are borrowing and paying back. In the same way that borrowers sometimes forget about paying back, investors can sometimes forget about selling out.
Selling out is the investment equivalent of a flu shot. You can’t lose money in a stock market decline after you’ve sold your stocks. You become immune. If your investment technique has a provision for selling, there’s no need to lose money if the stock market goes down. In the same way, there is no need to miss out on making money when the stock market goes up if your investment technique has a provision for buying.
Good investors plan the buying and the selling. Good consumers plan the borrowing and the paying back.
I wonder what good biologists do. Do they plan the sickness and the cure? It’s obviously wiser for them to plan the cure first, then the sickness. That would be like a good investor planning to sell his investments before he buys them. Such wisdom is rare.
To order your copy of Beyond the Bull and the Five Levels of Investor Consciousness CD, or to sign up for Ken’s free monthly webinar, visit www.gobeyondthebull.com (Bullmanship Code = SS32).
This article and others by Ken are available at http://kennorquay.blogspot.com.
Contact Ken directly at ken@castlemoore.com.
An Interesting Interview with Michael Campbell
Following is the link:
A Must Read Long Term View
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Waste Management, Inc. (NYSE:WM) Seasonal Chart
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC April 11th 2012
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide
Thackray’s 2012 Investor’s Guide recently has been released. It can be ordered online from Amazon.ca or Amazon.com at http://www.amazon.ca/gp/product/0978220064/ref=as_li_qf_sp_asin_il_tl?ie=UTF8&tag=timthemar-20&linkCode=as2&camp=15121&creative=330641&creativeASIN=0978220064
It can also be ordered online from Brooke’s website: www.alphamountain.com (book is in stock).
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: GOOG, T
April 12th, 2012 at 6:55 am
anyone have an opinion about T.GAS at this time as a buy and hold for the next year or so ….. is it affected by futures roll-over or what ever that process is? .. or are gassy stocks a better way to play the eventual gas price increase … thx
April 12th, 2012 at 9:18 am
Tony, Ron/AB,
Would you have a chance to shed some TA on DH.TO please? Does it look like a good shortsell for a hold down to the $17.80 price?
KC
April 12th, 2012 at 9:49 am
Good moring all.. great start so far. I bought 1,500 fcx around $36.10 at the opening. Already put a stop loss to secure at last $1,500 profit.
April 12th, 2012 at 9:51 am
Michael and other Investorline users, I just noticed that the streamer is not working properly for some of the US stocks.
April 12th, 2012 at 9:56 am
Hi Slava. BMO’s streamer isn’t working for all Canadian stocks as well. How frustrating!
April 12th, 2012 at 10:02 am
Michael, very frustrating indeed.. both itrade and ivl are giving me a lot of headaches, but I hear other brokerages experience similar outages.
April 12th, 2012 at 10:02 am
ADVN is doing just fine – and it’s free!!!
Tony hanging on to WIN.TO it did get up to a bid of 6.01 then dropped to 5.95…. no telling what now and I have to leave in an hour. Can you suggest what kind of Limit bid I should make?
April 12th, 2012 at 10:02 am
KC,
I do have it on a sell signal. A close above 18.72 would negate the sell but I don’t think it gets there. There is a chance it hits 18.50. in any case the supports are:
18.16 – CP pivot
17.97 – mathematical
17.40 – S1 pivot
17.19 – mathematical
I think as long at it doesn’t go above the 4ma at 18.29 it looks good.
BTW, I don’t short stocks.
April 12th, 2012 at 10:06 am
Hi CJ. Are you buying (bid) more WIN? I thought that you wanted to sell (ask).
April 12th, 2012 at 10:09 am
KC,
Re DH.TO
I would add that a price move below the CP pivot and a reading below 50 for the RSI(21)would be confirmation. It’s at he mid-keltner and you want to see it break down first. A move below the mid-keltner should coincide with RSI(20) below 50.
April 12th, 2012 at 10:17 am
finance.google.com doesn’t seem to work either..
April 12th, 2012 at 10:19 am
Is 1380 on the SPX considered strong resistance? Is it having a hard time getting past that and backing off ? Time to short again?
KC
April 12th, 2012 at 10:21 am
Ron/AB,
Appreciate your detailed input,thanks. will watch it.
April 12th, 2012 at 10:25 am
CJ,
The saying goes…….
” Bulls make money, and Bears make money, but Pigs get slaughtered ”
Other sayings…
“Don’t look a gift horse in the mouth”
“Don’t press your luck”
” How much is enough?”
” Trees do not grow to the sky ”
” You can/t lose money by taking a profit ”
” Sell too soon, rather than too late ”
etc, etc, etc
April 12th, 2012 at 10:26 am
Michael #9
I was considering selling some, but while I typed that last posting – she dropped under my breakeven mark – I want to put in a sell limit but have no idea where “winnie” is going. I have to go to work very shortly so it is either that or do nothing. I was hoping to sell MCD this morning, but it came out of the gate with the longest black candlestick I ever saw!!! Dropped out of selling range also – must be going to be a good day for the most part as MCD soars on bad days and falls on good days LOL. Have a good day Michael!
April 12th, 2012 at 10:28 am
Hewlett-Packard a buy now?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HPQ&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p80339531455
April 12th, 2012 at 10:34 am
# 14-Rol Lew
RE: CJ
yep, once you have a nice gain, get the heck out of there. The whole point of this game is to make money! not to be right on a call.
As Buffet said: ” FEAR is your friend, GREED is your enemy”. When you feel greedy, sell.
April 12th, 2012 at 10:42 am
Is any one following this HOT stock?
Ii is trading for $1.60. now.
Target price is $8.00.
Any comments?
April 12th, 2012 at 10:43 am
Soory -Stock Symbol is SNPK AS posted in #18 above
April 12th, 2012 at 10:50 am
Rol Lew/Canuck
Guess profit is in the eyes of the beholder; if I had been able to pull the trigger in the moment WIN.TO hit it’s peak of 6.01 I would have gained $8.09 TOTAL GAIN on my 150 shares, so I really do not think GREED enters into the situation. I will still put in a sell limit as this stock often climbs in the afternoon.
April 12th, 2012 at 11:08 am
@ bob #1
Here is a comparison chart GAS.TO and $Natgas
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GAS.TO&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p29060940008
Over 3 year period GAS was down 88%
NATGAS was down 47%
April 12th, 2012 at 11:10 am
Hi Canuck2004. I can’t recall if you hold a lot of American dividend stocks. I’m following TAP which is oversold and pays a decent dividend. Thanks.
April 12th, 2012 at 11:12 am
@ bob #1
I prefer companies with natgas exposure for the gas sector.
Informative article here:
http://canadianmoneyforum.com/showthread.php/8359-Your-Favourite-Oil-Stocks-I-m-buying?p=124427&viewfull=1#post124427
April 12th, 2012 at 11:26 am
# 22 Michael
I do own some in my RRSP, mostly Mortgage REITs, and a few large caps like PFE, AT&T, etc. TAP would not be for me, thanks for the tip tho….
April 12th, 2012 at 11:27 am
Irwin
thx … appreciate your insights
April 12th, 2012 at 11:28 am
MFC, SLF and MG doing well, as expected. After the close will move up stops.
April 12th, 2012 at 11:43 am
Canuck 2004,
Great call on SLF and al. They moved up a lot. I had an appointment this morning and missed the opening. Do you think it is too late to enter? I had SLF on my radar. I like what I see on the chart. The easy has been made for sure in that move, but there is still room to move up over the next week or so.
April 12th, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Rol lew,
See what I mean about that SINA weekly game?? Sell the stock down from Mon to Wed, sell expensive puts at a higher strike price (usually to get a gain of about $1.50 or more on the strike price), buy the stock at the sold down price, buy the calls there too – then drive stock price up to Friday’s option expiration such that those sold puts can be bought back now at much less than what they were sold for on Mon to Wed (usually can be bought back for about 30 cents or so), and then can profit too from the gain in stock price PLUS then the gains too in the calls bought on Mon to Wed at the lower price. I saw yesterday that it looked like SINA could head to $65 strike by Friday (when SINA was tradng at $61 yesterday) – and tada…. today, they hit $64.90 as its high! The game is played this way every week!! (so far that is – as things can change in the future of course but for now, this is how “they” play SINA each week for weekly options expiration).
Same game too is played with LNKD – BUT to a lesser extent – it isn’t as like clockwork each week as it is with SINA. But still, one can make good gains with LNKD each week if you play their game each week! Just 2 stocks to watch for this weekly game to play out (there are probably more out there too but these are just 2 that I follow such that I’ve seen this game played with them each week – but moreso with SINA).
Interesting hey Rol??
Eve
April 12th, 2012 at 12:12 pm
#27-Martine
These 3 are a trade and I explained my rationale yesterday. I’d watch it for a breather, probably tomorrow or Monday.
But for those 3, you need to pay close attention to the TSX… they are a proxy for that index and will move in tandem.
Like I pointed out yesterday, TSX way oversold, RSI and STO down to same level as last fall, but situation now way better, so no reason to go lower. Anyway, the VIX is nowhere near what it was last fall, so no panic, just a mild correction.
Good charts on all 3 names. Higher lows… good uptrend, doesn’t matter about the daily news… the chart is what’s important. The chart represent the collective thoughts of millions of investors…. and market always looks 6 months ahead….
April 12th, 2012 at 12:15 pm
As expected, the TSX is outperforming the SPX. It’s mainly the highly oversold mining sector as well as the gold and energy sectors that are bouncing. Is this a trend reversal or a bounce to resistance levels…hmmm
April 12th, 2012 at 12:27 pm
Just added BAC-N to trading account, good size position with stop just under last low. Great chart. Nothing beats the runt of the littler in an expansion, the most hated financial stock for investors in USA.
IMO, the worse is behind it, it can only get better.
There cannot be an expasion or recovery without the FINANCIAL sector… see Sector Rotation Model. It will be muddled in here as we are in the process of changing gears… some days the economy will look good, others not so much, but the trend will be higher.
Nothing new here, this cyclical trade has been around forever.
April 12th, 2012 at 12:56 pm
Thanks Canuck 2004. I also find this is overdone in one day, but this is typical when markets turn. Usually on a dime. I forgot I was not going to be in my office this morning. Otherwise, I would have positioned myself yesterday. It does not take much to miss great opportunities.
You never expressed any opinion regarding gold and gold stocks. Please let me know what your take is on those when you have a chance if you don’t mind. I am just curious to hear your thoughts. I personally always had problems with the rationale in owning the bullion. It makes sense giving the state of many countries’ economy, but it plays on fear and I have a problem with that.
I also meant to ask you about the Americanbulls website. That came up lately but I recall you mentioned it a few months ago. I was wondering how reliable it is and if there is a need to be a member in order to have access to most of the information.
April 12th, 2012 at 1:04 pm
Ron/AB
Good morning – yep, I really slept in. I haven’t been able to sleep at nights for a few days and it has caught up with me. Now I have a headache from caffeine withdrawal… usually have my coffee much, much earlier.. this is so unusual for me to sleep in past noon! WOW.
Anyway, wanted to say re #30, I heard BNN that commodities are up on expectation of China reporting better than expected – I would wait and see what comes overnight.
I am deep in doo doo with bears but I will hang on and may add to them. Sooner than later, the market will come down. GRAVITY! I know about gravity, it comes along with gray hair right? (my hair is not gray, tho’ I’m not sure what lies beneath) LOL
April 12th, 2012 at 1:05 pm
Eve: At your convenience could you please give TA on POT.to, its moving very little compared to some other stocks. I am thinking of selling it and add to FCX. My strategy presently is to hold my longs and hedge when necessary thereby not trading my account much until the Bradley date. Thanks and happy trading.
April 12th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
cannuck2004,
“Bank of America Muddies Disclosure Ahead of Earnings”
http://www.thestreet.com/story/11492618/1/bank-of-america-muddies-disclosure-ahead-of-earnings.html
April 12th, 2012 at 1:18 pm
Wayne
Re #35. That is grave. It is so injust what the big boys get aways with in North America. I was just reading this – and maybe the Chinese attitude to financial corruption and criminals should be adopted over here.
Worthwhile reading :
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/guest-post-should-corrupt-bankers-face-death-penalty
“In a recent case, Wu Ying, a 28-year-old woman, will soon be put to death for taking out multi-million dollar loans from investors she was unable to pay back.
We in the West appear to have a problem; financial crimes ruin lives, but financial criminals either get away with a comparatively small fine (like Goldman did after they misled clients), a cushy prison cell, or sometimes even a taxpayer funded bailout.”
April 12th, 2012 at 1:22 pm
Further to financial corruption – guess someone feels very strong about it :
Update from New York Daily News:
Police investigate package sent to World Financial Center with what appears to be a grenade
Just some headlines crossing the stream:
NYPD SAYS IT IS INVESTIGATING SUSPICIOUS PACKAGE DOWNTOWN
SOME BUILDINGS AT WORLD FINANCIAL CENTER BEING EVACUATED
And from @NYScanner:
World Financial Center Area being evacuated due to a suspicious package NYPD ESU on scene awaiting Bomb Squad.
April 12th, 2012 at 1:23 pm
canuck2004
#31
So, you basically disagree with this chart?
http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/image.png
Also I am wondering why you would buy Bank Of America when the consensus for their 1st quarter earnings are .11 compared to 2011 1st quarter earnings were .17?
Bank of America
Earnings Estimate: 12 cents. Compared to last year: Down 28%
Earnings High: 20 cents; Earnings Low: 6 cents
Revenue Estimate: $22.59 billion. Compared to last year: Down 16%
Analyst Comment — Stifel Nicolaus: “We think the primary focus should be on expenses… with many investors having to look to 2013 earnings (or beyond) in order to effectively value BAC shares on a P/E multiple basis, we think it is critical for the company to reach the $16 billion quarterly expense base in order for investors to believe in the company’s earnings power story over time.”
April 12th, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Hi Kay,
POT.TO is just starting to recover from oversold on stochastics – and the MACD is moving upwards from the looks of it. Also, there’s a seasonal trade for the ag stocks for Spring – in April / May – so, IF the seasonal aspect plays out this year, then POT should move higher from here. The potential is to get back up to $45 to $47 which are both resistance levels.
FCX may stall out right here as it has stalled at the mid keltner since February and then come down again – it is currently AT the mid keltner. So, it may start to come back down from here. IF it makes it above the mid kelt, then upside is to $39/ $40 area (which is resistance) and to possibly $41 to $42 which is resistance too!
Eve
April 12th, 2012 at 1:30 pm
Tawny: FWIW…the rally is likely to run until tomorrow, so I would not add to bears, as Eve pointed out on Wednesday the Bradley date is playing out as well as the markets were oversold. Hope you don’t mind me telling this, however, maybe some more knowledgable bloggers here can add opinion.
April 12th, 2012 at 1:45 pm
#32-Martine
I’m not interested in gold at this point. It was great when it was moving up from 250 to the 800 old high and beyond, at this point in time though I don’t see much upside. Got lots of doubles and triples early on, but I just don’t see it here. I’m avoiding it like the plague. An expanding economy or recovery in USA will be terrible for gold.
Having said that, I own 1 gold stock in my RRSP, ABX which I have owned for many years, at this point for me a yield stock.
I am a big believer in identifying major trends early, then trading into that move. When it’s on everyone’s lips, I avoid. Contrarian I guess.
I use Americanbulls daily as one more source of information, it is computer generated so impartial. It is however generally late and only confirms my observations. Not bad tho… thends to be right more often than wrong, no good in a highly volatile market like last fall as you will get wild readings, buy then next day sell, the next day buy, and so on.
Like yesterday’s move in my 3 picks, was confirmed late in the day on Americanbulls. It does UPDATE daily later after the close, but that’s the free part…if one pays, you can get it streaming… not worth it as a late reading is better anyways, one does not want to get caught up with the daily fluctuations. Plus I’m cheap and like free….lol
I can afford a Mercedes but I drive a Honda…
April 12th, 2012 at 1:46 pm
Kay
Thanks… certainly do not mind your comments and in fact appreciate them. Did not read Eve’s comments, but I do have the Bradley Siderography on my desk and am totally aware of it. I brought to everyone’s attention that the March 16th date was right on target as it hit Europe and China although N.Amer. did not feel it so strongly. It is truly amazing to me even though I am a believer in astrology and numbers, even Whiteside of UpTrend has often talked of moon phases affecting markets.
I have been utilizing Uptrend signals for my purchases but I will be watching the markets closely and am prepared to gradually add more to bear positions. The one that concerns me the most is the financial sector. As Wayne posted in #35, “Figures don’t lie but Liars can Figure”. But if the European banks run into major problems the U.S. banks will echo…. Right now markets are responding on RUMOUR, so careful what you say publicly! LOL
April 12th, 2012 at 1:53 pm
Wayne & Tawny,
Further to your #35 & #36
Goldman Sachs:
U.S. securities regulators are preparing to announce that Goldman Sachs will pay $22 million to settle allegations the bank did not have adequate policies to prevent research from being passed inappropriately to preferred clients, people familiar with the matter said on Wednesday.
Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC),
the largest U.S. mortgage lender, faces a U.S. probe over claims that it neglects bank-owned homes in minority communities, according to a person briefed on the matter. The U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development is examining allegations that the San Francisco-based bank violated fair-lending laws, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the review isn’t public. If the agency finds violations and can’t reach an agreement to have the bank remedy them, the matter may be transferred to the Department of Justice, the person said.
April 12th, 2012 at 1:55 pm
Just sold my 1,500 fcx… feels good. Now I just need my juniors and HGU to go up.
April 12th, 2012 at 1:58 pm
# 38 Ana
# I don’t disagree with that chart, but it is an average, not the gospel. I do agree with this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$TSX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p15441777625
Note last time TSX RSI was at 30.
BAC, I don’t care what analysts say, they are always bullish at market tops and bearish at market bottoms… never fails…I only care about what the chart says:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=BAC&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p37663361469
Note STO and general UPtrend (Golden Cross). In this correction this stock DID NOT break its 50 DMA…that’s pretty strong support as both the DOW and S&P 500 broke theirs. This to me pretty well means that any bad news is already priced in.
In addition, note P&F chartbullish target:
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=BAC,PLAADANRBOPADF1!3!1.0!!2!20&pref=G
I’m quite comfortable with it…if it breaks down, my stop is not too far below…so loss will be minimal, while upside potential is terrific.
IMO good risk/reward.
April 12th, 2012 at 1:59 pm
# 38 Ana, I forgot, I have owned BAC since last fall in my RRSP, first entry at 5, and have been adding into it. Averaging up into the name. No problems here.
April 12th, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Apple in the red… even though it’s news driven but still..
April 12th, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Kay, Tawny,
I agree with Kay in #40.
The call in the last week or so for a correction in both the TSX and SPX was correct. The TSX had a classic H&S neckline and the SPX broke the 1386 support which was the bottom of the Darvis box. So these supports were broken on the daily charts and indicated a sell. The markets pulled back as expected and got to oversold conditions (especially on the TSX) and are now bouncing. We will likely test the old supports that were broken which will now act as resistance. What happens at that point will be a better indication of the market direction going foward.
April 12th, 2012 at 2:04 pm
gmsa
re #43. I had read this earlier – the full story (actually I only gleaned the article)
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/goldman-busted-asymmetric-service-initiative-aka-leaking-inside-information-whales
Really, it so unethical what goes on here – String em up and kick the bucket.
Like Lin says, (where is she now) when we speak of Chinese corruption – look at the U.S.
Lin, whereevwer you are now – hope you are having fun.
April 12th, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Play the Selling Sequel with Call Spreads
The broader market looks ripe for a bear call spread strategy
Apr 12, 2012, 1:13 pm EDT | By Tyler Craig, Tyler’s Trading
Traders anticipating a sequel to the Monday-Tuesday swoon should be viewing the current market rally as a shorting opportunity. Though buying dips has been the name of the game for the last four months, the recent break of the 50-day moving average in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) may be signaling the transition into a range-bound environment where selling rallies becomes more lucrative.
One option strategy that should do well under such conditions is the bear call spread. Sometimes referred to as selling a call vertical spread, the position consists of selling to open a lower-strike call while buying to open a higher-strike call in the same expiration month.Daily chart of SPY
Click to Enlarge
Traders typically use out-of-the-money options to structure the trade with a wide profit range. In addition, shorter-term options are typically used to exploit the higher rate of time decay.
The spread is entered for a net credit, which represents the maximum reward available and will be captured if the calls expire out-of-the-money. The max risk is limited to the distance between strike prices minus the net credit collected and will be incurred if the underlying stock is trading above the higher strike price when the traded options expire.
By providing the ability to profit even in neutral environments, the bear call spread acts as a higher-probability alternative to shorting stock or buying puts outright.
While the SPDR S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY) may yet rally for another day or two, suppose we look at selling the May 143-148 call spread once the buying pressure abates and a new down leg begins. If sold around the current price of 72 cents (selling the 143 strike, buying the 148 strike), the spread offers a max reward of $72, which represents a 17% return on the potential risk in the trade ($427).
Think of the play as a bet that the SPY won’t rise above $143 over the next month through May options expiration. From current levels, that’s a move of roughly 3.2%.
Of course, if the current bounce in the SPY takes the ETF higher than expected, traders might consider using call strikes above $143 if there is sufficient premium to be collected.
April 12th, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Will be back around 3pm earlier if I cut meeting short.
April 12th, 2012 at 2:09 pm
No just picked this up before closing off but leaving right after this post.
Of interest to slava
Will Chipotle Follow Ruby Tuesday’s Crash?
Overbuilding might eventually contract Chipotle’s valuation
Apr 9, 2012, 8:57 am EDT | By Lawrence Meyers, InvestorPlace Contributor
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG)I am a big fan of Chipotle Mexican Grill’s (NYSE:CMG) food, but not of its stock. Like many concept restaurant chains, it is wildly overpriced, and will eventually come back to earth.
The question is whether Chipotle will remain successful like Cheesecake Factory (NASDAQ:CAKE) or go the way of now-struggling Ruby Tuesday (NYSE:RT).
Ruby Tuesday has had an interesting history, gone through different expansion concepts and struggled to maintain its brand identity. The trick with concept restaurants is that they either become a fad or a favorite. Ruby Tuesday apparently is dealing with an image as the former, and its stock chart — as well as the announced closure of 27 struggling stores — reflects this.
The problem with some chain restaurants is that they overexpand and saturate the citizenry with its food. There is some wisdom in the idea of more modest expansion, like Cheesecake Factory has engaged in. You’d rather have people waiting for a table who really want one than people who have burnt out on your food.
Ruby Tuesday has only $8 million in cash and almost $300 million in debt. The reason it’s still afloat is that it generated high eight figures in free cash flow. So it isn’t going bankrupt, and seems to be growing at about 13% annually and is priced appropriately. Bottom line: The concept has outgrown its momentum phase. The question going forward is whether it will be able to continue to grow.
So is Chipotle headed for the same fate? It’s impossible to predict the future, but I think it is.
Chipotle has good food, but it ultimately isn’t all that different from other selections, and it’s the kind of food that people get burnt out on. It does not offer some groundbreaking new taste, or new way of eating, or new food. That is certainly not to say that the stock can’t go higher. It is a momentum play, and nobody gets in the way of the momentum train unless they want to get flattened. But the stock is trading at almost 60 times earnings against expected long-term growth of 20%.
At some point, that multiple is going to contract. Chipotle still will be doing well, but that multiple is going to fall. That suggests there will be a time to short the stock, and that time will be when free cash flow starts to fall, when revenue and earnings miss for more than one quarter, and if management starts closing stores.
Until then, however, stay off the railroad tracks.
April 12th, 2012 at 2:12 pm
OK Eve, Re # 28 – Weekly SINA Saga…….
Yes – You have said the M word over & over,
And Yes, with today 64.83 up 3.50, I am overwhelmed.
As you know, last Wed 4th I had labelled SINA a short
@ 61.60. The lowest it got to was 59.60 on Tue 10th.
That’s not what good shorts do. Neverthe less, I remain
the stubborn mule. Why so? Well she is too fickle hearted!
April 12th, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Canuck 2004,
Thanks again for your comments. There is a lot of value in ABX with all the companies they acquired in the past. I would agree with your valuation. There are more than meet the eye. For swing trading, your timing is admirable. So, keep your comments coming. This is a great learning experience.
About your Honda, isn’t it brand new? A Mercedes would probably attracts too much attention among your fellow teachers. I also tend to be low key. It tends to attract the wrong crowd. I have an uncle who used to own a house which looked more like a castle than anything else. Whenever he was seating under the porch, he looked more like the janitor than the owner. He never let money get to his head. He was always the same down-to-earth kind of guy. Rightly so.
April 12th, 2012 at 2:17 pm
tony, thank you. You know how much I hate Chipotle.. $17k worth of losses.
April 12th, 2012 at 2:28 pm
Slava,
Re CMG
I can’t remember at what price you sold your position, but it is now trading above $430. Unreal! You will have your day to get your free lunch. Eventually, it will hit a wall like most momo stocks. By selling, you did the right thing. Be patient! As Tawny always says, gravity will prevail.
April 12th, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Tony,
I hope your child is feeling better
April 12th, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Hi Rol lew,
What’s the “M’ word?? Do you mean “manipulation”?
I also wrote a few times in the last few weeks that $60 was a really strong support price for SINA. So with it falling to $59.50 on Tuesday and then bouncing up from there – that is normal for a strong support price to overshoot that price just to head fake people and then jump up after that to get back to its support price and go over it (I’m sure you know that Rol – I’m just stating this for others on here who may be reading this and may not know this already). So that move on Tuesday to below $60 just by a bit, didn’t at all surprise me.
Options right now are showing SINA could head to $67.50 for tomorrow (vol of 795 for the calls) BUT $65 could just be the price for tomorrow it gets pinned to (639 volume there for calls).
Interesting hey Rol??
I don’t think it’s a short at this point – it is recovering too on stochastics AND on MACD too – both indicators suggest it is going higher from here. By how much though, I’m not sure – could go to $70 or higher (OR get stuck at its 50 day MA of just over $68).
Eve
April 12th, 2012 at 2:38 pm
Eve: Thanks for your comments on POT and FCX, I have placed stop loss but hope it goes up more. I was adding up my trades from last year and noticed had I held my long positions thruout I would have done a lot better, buy, sell, buy, sell sometimes can take away a lot of profit.
Slava: Congratulations on your FCX trade, I am hanging on there.
Ron/AB: Thanks for your comments, if we can help our fellow bloggers here save a dollar is worth it, as the market can be brutal to us sometimes. However, each has to do their own DD. Have a profitable one.
April 12th, 2012 at 2:52 pm
kay, thank you. I bought on margin so just wanted to close the trade.
April 12th, 2012 at 2:55 pm
kay, just a word of caution re copper stocks.. if China’s GDP disappoints tomorrow then we may see a pullback in copper prices/copper stocks.. and vice versa.
April 12th, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Tawny,
You still holding EPV?? The Euro is firming up.
April 12th, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Is anyone holding GMCR? I’m wondering what to do with it.
April 12th, 2012 at 3:02 pm
Can an oil trader tell me what CNQ and TLM have in common they both moved by more then 5% while su moved by 2%
April 12th, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Tony,
I don’t trade oil stocks – but Oil has been up almost $ 4.00 since Tuesday. That and the overall general bullishness of the market has sent them higher – both took off from the opening bell.
April 12th, 2012 at 3:24 pm
Eve,
Could you tell me what tends to happen when price goes outside/below the lower Keltner band? Does it tend to ride the lower band even lower down or bounce slightly and then back to mid kelt? I am referring to GFS.TO here.
Thank,
KC
April 12th, 2012 at 3:35 pm
Is anyone still short CNQ.TO and holding it?
April 12th, 2012 at 3:37 pm
Muntazir
NTR
thx for the concern,
yes he took is doses of medicine and the infection as started to dissipate.
April 12th, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Ana
BAC
Jon Najarian was mentionning earlier this week that weekly options for this week was trading at 9$ and price was barely around 8.89
April 12th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
KC
davis henderson this company makes the cheosques that we still use for the time being.
with the new ways of paying are cheques really a necessity? even for small business not sure how long it will last.
maybe they make those chips that go on our credit cards. if so they still have a reason to live otherwise I don’t know if I would want to hold a dying breed like yellow pages is right now.
is DH the next ylo.
April 12th, 2012 at 4:03 pm
There is a lot of talk by the FED about potentially more stimulus (QE3) being given if needed. USD is going lower on that and resource stocks are soaring from oversold conditions.
For sure the FED will keep rates low but will they really do a QE3 now or wait till they really need to use it??
The US economy is improving slightly at this time and the eurozone is not. Not sure about China. Also introducing QE3 now could really cause oil to spike which cannot be good for the economy. I am a little suspicious of this talk of QE3 at this time.
Just my thoughts. Any comments?
April 12th, 2012 at 4:08 pm
Canuck
you getting into slf at this time was o good bet I was hoping for a few pennies extra on the pullback so i didn’t get filled.
this would had been my catching up to the 33% move since the bottom at 18. oh well can’t look at the computer every 5min. for personal reasons.
April 12th, 2012 at 4:14 pm
Google Reports
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/google-reports-earnings-beats-eps-meets-ex-tac-revenues
April 12th, 2012 at 4:17 pm
Ron/AB
Haven’t been reading much but just caught your post 71 as I posted #73.
My thoughts: The fed doesn’t even have to do a QE – all that is needed is a rumour!
So why actually do the real thing. I agree with you – I don’t think it is going to happen in the near term – QE3 that is.
I have to post something I read on China – then that’s it for now.
April 12th, 2012 at 4:19 pm
VNTR
Off to attend a Judy Collins concert tonight. Anybody remember her??
April 12th, 2012 at 4:22 pm
Ron/AB
QE3.
I agree with you I wrote recently the next package they put on the table will not be a QE, as they have already started to change its name to twist.
now why would someone put more money into the system if it has been working so good at this stage?
I don’t see the reason why unless you see good opportunities.
If I were the US Prez I would give Mr Buffet the printing press as he is able to see good bargains. and have him put the money to work.
April 12th, 2012 at 4:23 pm
Re Truths & Lies and WE ARE ALL PEONS IN MY OPINION! What a world we live in!
Tawny
“At around 11 a.m. local time Thursday, China’s Internet suddenly began behaving very strangely. People inside China reported being unable to access some Chinese web sites like Sina’s Corp’s portals as well as popular foreign web sites not normally blocked by China’s firewall. Simultaneously, Internet users outside China, including in Hong Kong, reported difficulties accessing key Chinese sites, like search engine Baidu and the website of the People’s Bank of China.” And while we have no idea of what is going on behind the scenes, we are fairly confident what isn’t. Such as the country growing at a 9% as has been wildly speculated all day in what some suggest is a leak of Chinese official data. For a glimpse of what is going on, ”
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/glimpse-what-really-happening-china
Very interesting – caution, I clicked on Cdn.org where google translation is from – it is in China and since then I have been getting photos of lovely asian girls from Date Asia . com LOL when I go into Zero Hedge.
April 12th, 2012 at 4:30 pm
Wayne,
My favourites by Judy Collins:
“Turn, Turn, Turn”
“Send in the clowns”
“In My Life”
April 12th, 2012 at 4:33 pm
Tony Re #76
From what I have been reading the Cash injections have not really been working other than to pump the markets a nd create the illusion that all is well. LTRO in Europe has really not accomplished much either….seems all of this is kicking the can down the road.
Unemployment is still very rampant in the US, housing is getting worse again. European banks are on the brink of disaster… Greece needs more money, every where money, money, money, leveraging… Well, we can go on here. Okay, someone tell me where is the improvement…. forget this, just ranting a little. LOL
April 12th, 2012 at 4:36 pm
Ana,
I saw her last about 20 years ago. I’m looking forward to hearing her again.
Yes.. “Send in the clowns” (For the opening of Congress)
and
“Amazing Grace”!
April 12th, 2012 at 4:38 pm
Wayne
Very funny ! I love that song – Send in the Clowns!
Enjoy the concert.
April 12th, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Tawny,
You still have EPV??
Yes – dinner at a restaurant by the river – then Judy Collins.
April 12th, 2012 at 4:45 pm
George Soros: eurozone crisis has entered a ‘more lethal phase’
George Soros says Europe’s financial crisis has taken ‘a turn for the worse’ and outlines a series of measures to solve it
Wonder if anyone will listen to him.
April 12th, 2012 at 4:46 pm
Eurozone crisis to trim global trade, World Trade Organisation warns
Europe’s debt crisis and the sluggish pace of global growth will see trade flows ease for a second successive year in 2012
So what has improved???
April 12th, 2012 at 4:49 pm
#54-Martine
Honda is brand new, just bought it last month from gains made in my Trading account. It’s a Crosstour top line model, has all the features and then some I was looking for the job I have in mind for this car, retirement and driving down to AZ in winter.
Not commuting any more, so 4 cyl. not as critical as before…I was spending between 410 to 500 a month in fuel to get to work with my Accord, so neede a 4 cyl. I hate spending money on fuel… most of it is taxes anyway, and I hate paying taxes…lol
I usually prefer to change my car every 3 years and buy new, as for my needs it’s the best value… no worries about repairs, etc. Leasing makes no sense to me for my needs, only if I could write it off for business reasons. I’m just practical.
Low profile is always best. I own 2 Omega watches but I would not own a gold watch… unless someone knows Omegas, they look like any other watch. Few recognize them as high end watches…it’s enough that I know…lol
# 70-Tony
“DH the next ylo” I agree and wouldn’t touch with a barge pole… I don’t care how good it’s doing right now… it’s like the great buggy whip factory in 1919.
#72-Tony, can’t win them all, as long as we get most of them, most of the time…lol..next time.
Like I said before the most shorted stocks get the best gains when they turn around… short “stops” get triggered… and it feeds on itself…that’s what happened today to SLF and MFC.
April 12th, 2012 at 4:52 pm
And for Copper fans – (Slava)
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-11/top-analysts-see-copper-rising-even-as-china-slows-commodities.html
April 12th, 2012 at 4:58 pm
Wayne re #82
Oh, I am a little jealous – dinner vby the river and a concert!
Yes still have EPV – did take some profit, but still holding a little… not much and with the real news so very – NOT GOOD – I will watch Europe and see. I have been doing a great deal of reading… as per my links above .
Interesting that next Bradley Date is April 23 – right after election in France.
You still holding SPXU or did you ditch it right away?
April 12th, 2012 at 5:00 pm
Eve,
Did you get into any long positions today?
April 12th, 2012 at 5:06 pm
Wayne,
Do you live in the US or in Canada?
I am interested in knowing why you are not trading oil anymore.
There does not seem to be very much volume in oil anymore.
I am getting frustrated with trading oil. I usually jump in HVU on a down day.
April 12th, 2012 at 5:14 pm
“As a reminder, as we pointed out yesterday, the US just posted the largest ever March budget deficit in history of nearly $200 billion, which followed the single largest monthly budget deficit on record of $232 billion. Keep those numbers in mind, because they frame, in a very, very, very aggressive case, the bottom and top range of what the entire Buffett Rule would offset in terms of gained revenue. As rick explains, assuming one taxes an upper estimate of those eligible for the Buffett Rule (indicatively 225,000 people but realistically far less) an incremental $1 million, the offset would be $225 billion over the proposal’s life. Which is not enough to even plug one month of US deficit. And that is what all the posturing is about.”
This link contains a video of Rick Santelli explaining that taxing the rich won’t even make a dent in the debt – he is amusing as ever, in that he gets so excited!
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/buffett-rule-perspective
April 12th, 2012 at 6:15 pm
Does anyone trade HXU and HXD? How is the volume on these?
April 12th, 2012 at 6:24 pm
Canuck 2002,
Good for you! Not cheap, thrifty. However, we still have to reward ourselves for our hard work.
April 12th, 2012 at 6:27 pm
Ana,
Re HXD.TO
Volume has always been good on that one. I am not so sure about HXU. I then tend to pick individual stocks.
April 12th, 2012 at 6:30 pm
Canuck 2004,
You just shed two years. I hope you can still retire this year as planned. By the way, why 2004? Any important milestone? Just curious. Original name. Very Canadian!
Have a good night.
April 12th, 2012 at 6:38 pm
SINA SAGA #58
Eve, I think this is ridiculous, as in today, YES, it happened,
but it’s not bl**dy likely to ever happen again. The gains are
too large to be a habit.
(But with * M * = M-A-N-I-P-U-L-A-T-I-O-N, anything is possible, who knows??)
Apr- Wk2 – Calls
STRIKE —LAST —CHANGE–BASE –% TODAY
55 —9 —2.95 —6.05 —–49%
57.5 —7.76 —3.11 —4.65 —–67%
60 —5.45 —3.52 —1.93 —–182%
62.5 —2.91 —2.23 —0.68 —–328%
65 —1.1 —0.91 —0.19 —–479%
67.5 —0.23 —0.18 —0.05 —–360%
70 —0.06 —0.03 —0.03 —–100%
Apr- Monthly – Calls
55 —10 —3.5 —6.5 —–54%
57.5 —8.1 —3.6 —4.5 —–80%
60 —5.85 —2.88 —2.97 —–97%
62.5 —3.9 —2.15 —1.75 —–123%
65 —2.5 —1.6 —0.9 —–178%
67.5 —1.38 —0.97 —0.41 —–237%
70 —0.78 —0.58 —0.2 —–290%
72.5 —0.36 —0.24 —0.12 —–200%
75 —0.17 —0.1 —0.07 —–143%
Call me Thomas! that’s fine.
Geez! Those guys are great! That’s 3 years worth of trading in 1 day,
provided of course you don’t sweat easy.
By the looks of today’s Call volumes and open interest,
it looks like they took partial profits on AprWk2 today,
and also increased their purchases of the Apr 20th opex.
But No!… I cannot believe that they are targeting the 75 strike.
Even 70 is hard to contemplate. BUT that is where the volume(s) are.
This is really beginning to bug me!
April 12th, 2012 at 6:47 pm
tawny,
When Rick Santelli is on CNBC, I quickly change the channel to BNN. He is so irritating. He sounds like he is having a temper tantrum. His voice is very hard to take.
I regard to the taxation, “to whom much is given, much is expected.” I wonder where Rick thinks the money come from to pay off the debt? The more you make, the more you keep.
April 12th, 2012 at 6:51 pm
# 94-Martine
I plan to retire at the end of June, just haven’t put in the papers yet… until I do I can still change my mind…lol… In May I’ll have to get down to work on this in earnest…when I get back from Victoria to look at real estate. Just finished talking to my real estate broker to find out what I have to do to help sell this house…. pretty well what I thought I had to do.
My monicker Canuck2004 is because for many years I have been posting on US financial sites, so I wanted those Americans to know I was Canadian… the 2004 is the last time I have to change my name… it used to be Canuck some other year that I forget (Canuck1996?), but a glitch in a website where I post regularly forced me to change my name, so I just tweeked it a bit by only changing the year to the current year at the time. No other purpose… or hidden meanings.
I got to make a certain number in clear gain in trading account before I allow myself to buy another Omega watch…. got my eye on a nice one, but need to make my target gain first… and my target is only 25 times more than the watch is worth….lol. I’ll get there some day…
April 12th, 2012 at 7:14 pm
Hi canuck2004. Re the year glitch, it was probably Y2K! Since I sold my AZ condo (and my TZOO), the only US equity I own is BAC; oh, I did buy some TAP today. Looking to add some good quality names, but also looking at some dividend ETFs. I’m also thinking about allowing myself a BIG desktop, since I only have a 11.6″ laptop, and my eyes get awfully tired looking at such a small screen when trading.
April 12th, 2012 at 7:44 pm
Hi Ana,
No, i missed it today – slept til 10 am and missed my opp on the 2 stocks I look at daily for really good gains – they both too off like a rocket and were done their gains by around 10 am – both came down just a bit over lunch time BUT i was looking for them to come down by MORE than they did – yet, they didn’t! so, i didn’t buy either – yet, one went up by $2 more from the lunchtime low and the other one went up by $2.90 from the lunchtime low – arrgghhh – little did I expect that – if i had expected those kind of dollar moves from lunch time, i would have bought the one of them!
oh well…
eve
April 12th, 2012 at 7:47 pm
Rol lew,
Why would I call you Thomas?? LOL.
It happens EVERY week Rol – every week! And yes, it often will move up between $3 to $10 or more in just ONE WEEK from lows to highs by week’s end. So, yup, lots of gains in this one AND it IS very bl**dy likely that it WILL happen again – and again and again LOL as this one moves like this all the time!
Keep a watch on it and see too 
Thanks Rol for that options info
Eve
April 12th, 2012 at 8:24 pm
Useful site, updated daily:
http://stocktargetprice.com/index.php?s=stock&q=cmg
April 12th, 2012 at 8:26 pm
Nirval #18 and #19 (SNPK)
Look at the site http://www.pumpsanddumps.com
April 12th, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Slava
Yes, cmg is on its way up. I bet you are glad you are out of it.
April 12th, 2012 at 8:40 pm
Tawny, Rami & other HVU holders from last week
Good Call
Cannuck2004
Good call on MFC & lifecos
Eve,
Nice to read your discussion on s&p with Rollew & RonAB ( i think).They are turning out coorectly. Also add Brooke says 1st 18 days of april good + options for apr expire on Apr 21, hence, your forecast for Bradley dates look correct. Also pleased to read your comments on POT to Kay
April 12th, 2012 at 8:54 pm
Support for Cannuck2004 ?
http://blogs.stockcharts.com/canada/
April 12th, 2012 at 9:06 pm
Canuck
Thanks for posting a couple of your buys. I put in a buy order this morning and I got SLF. I am up $1.65. Good Call.
DKW
April 12th, 2012 at 10:15 pm
AmericanBulls after reset today has a “Buy Confirmed” on the Daily TSX, MFC, MG, BAC but not on SLF, at least not yet.
AB just confirms what I saw and my reading of the charts….but AB is purely mechanical, computer generated and makes no room for subtle experienced interpretation, so not always 100% right, but always worth a consideration. It also gives itself a score on how well it has done on each stock in the far right panel… 100 becomes xxx, see Signal History.
Just another tool…
I would expect the markets to trade lower tomorrow, so not too late to buy certain names… wait for a pull back. It needs to take a breather after such a big run up today.
I expect our little short term correction is over and we are back to the races.
Bull market corrections have a history of being short and violent, this one only took a couple of weeks to get to an oversold condition as extreme as last fall (RSI,STO), which took months to get there…typical for a bull market correction.
April 12th, 2012 at 10:45 pm
Ana
Re Rick Santelli – couldn’t agree more – his voice and his screeching is very irritating…. he is terribly out of shape – you can hear his lungs wailing “stop yelling” we can’t take it anymore.
April 12th, 2012 at 10:48 pm
I have greaq respect for Ciovacco – look at this T.A. checklist for where the S&P is now – they want it to go down further and to meet their criteria before jumping in.
http://www.ciovaccocapital.com/wordpress/
April 12th, 2012 at 10:52 pm
The number the market has been waiting for with bated breath arrives:
CHINA 1Q GDP GROWS 8.1% ON YEAR, DOWN FROM 8.9% IN Q4; EXPECTED 8.4%, and whispered at 9.0%
CHINA’S MARCH INDUSTRIAL OUTPUT RISES 11.9% FROM YEAR EARLIER
CHINA STATISTICS BUREAU SAYS PROBLEMS REMAIN IN THE ECONOMY
CHINA 1Q RETAIL SALES RISE 14.8% VS EST. 14.8%
NBS: CHINA STILL FACES UPWARD PRESSURE ON INFLATION
NBS: CHINA FACES DIFFICULTY STABILIZING EXPORTS
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/china-gdp-misses-expectations-mile-rises-only-81
April 12th, 2012 at 11:04 pm
Ana,
I live in the US.
My broker “discovered” that I was daytrading Oil in an IRA account – not allowed. Just as well.
Oil had been trading in a channel for the most of March – and I have been thinking of changing my focus to swing trading. Oil is so senstive to the news – too choppy for this old lumberjack! I used to trade currencies a while back – you can get onboard some nice trends – so I have been long the Yen since last Wednesday. I also considered going long the Euro as it has been bouncing off the 130.00 level and a friend of mine just hit a 4 handle last week on his Euro position.
Tawny,
Still in SPXU. I bot when the SPX cracked 1400. I will re-evaluate tomorrow.
Judy Collins was excellent! Her voice is still quite smooth and strong – she can still hit the high notes. Talked a lot about her affair with Stephen Stills and the recordings they did together. She sang a lot of the old classics. Closed with “Send in the Clowns”. Very enjoyable evening.
April 13th, 2012 at 12:07 am
Tony,
You say DH is another ylo, I personally do not short, but do you see it a good short opportunity for those who do?
TIA
DD
April 13th, 2012 at 12:38 am
dd
i am not saying you must short it.
think of CMG it has been running like a bull and doesn’t want to pause.
dh is a dying breed unless they have more then one focus I would rather be looking elsewhere to make money.
Best thing if not sure what to do call em up ask them are they only in the printing chk business, or what and then maybe that could convince you what to do.
but don’t forget for the time being small businesses will rely on the consumer to send out cheques.
April 13th, 2012 at 1:00 am
EVE, Rol Lew
I was looking at a weekly chart. and felt the urge to look at sina.
you guys mentionned in an earlier post they are targeting 75$ if so hope it breaks above 80$ otherwise this one is going in the tank
Why? looks like it forming an H&S pattern
from the Jan low of 47$ it went to 76(100MA) before retreating to 60(150MA) before headed 80 before headed again at 60 now heading to 75 (100MA) should 100MA be a resistance and 150MA fail this would bring us back near Januarys low.
April 13th, 2012 at 1:05 am
Slava
you were asking about COG yesterday…
I don’t like it to much but if you do want to buy it have a close stop below 27.75 if breaks below cog would end up near 10$ as it to has formed a H&S shape.
April 13th, 2012 at 1:14 am
Well the GDP for China came in at 8.1 for the first quarter. Average forecast was for 8.4 and that is why all futures are down quite a bit at the moment. The reason for the rally today was that the rumour number was suppose to be around 9. What a joke, all of this is.
Wayne, I am envious of you seeing Judy Collins. If you like the Arts, Jacob’s Pillow in Becket, Massachusetts would be worth a visit.
April 13th, 2012 at 1:27 am
Hi Ana,
re- Rick Santelli,
It might be irritating to you but he might be the only one on CNBC who doesn’t belong to ‘don’t worry be happy’ crowd.
April 13th, 2012 at 1:30 am
tawny,
Sorry, I started to read from the bottom up and did not see your post. Do you think that maybe the number was 7.8 and they moved it to “just” above 8, not to shock the market too much? Really do not trust any of the reporting.
Taking some pain killers, because I fell on my last day of skiing and my bindings did not release. Old equipment and old owner of the old equipment!
April 13th, 2012 at 1:33 am
Tony,
Ya I concur better to look else where.
Hope the family if feeling better.