ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Friday April 13th
U.S. equity index futures are lower this morning. S&P 500 futures were down 7 points in pre-opening trade. Index futures are responding to news that China’s GDP growth is slowing. Consensus for GDP growth in the first quarter was 8.3% versus 8.9% last year. Actual was 8.1%.
Index futures weakened further following release of March Consumer Prices at 8:30 AM EDT. Consensus was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.4% in February. Actual was an increase of 0.3%. Consensus for March CPI ex food and energy was an increase of 0.2% versus a gain of 0.1% in February. Actual was an increase of 0.2%.
Google added $2.99 to $654.00 after reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings and after announcing a two for one stock split.
JP Morgan fell $0.45 to $44.39 despite reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings. The bank also announced a dividend increase and a share buy-back program.
Wells Fargo also came under profit taking pressures despite reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings and despite raising its dividend. The stock fell $0.62 to $33.40.
Encana is expected to open lower after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral.
Eldorado Gold added $0.04 to $14.44 after BMO Capital upgraded the stock from Market Perform to Outperform. Target is $20.
Nike added $0.14 to $108.79 after Janney Capital initiated coverage on the stock with a Buy rating. Target is $127.
KeyBanc upgraded the U.S. Home Building sector. Toll Brothers, Pulte Homes and Lennar were upgraded from Neutral to Buy.
Technical Watch
JP Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) – $44.39 slipped 1.1% despite reporting higher than consensus first quarter earnings. The Bank also announced an increase in its dividend and a share buy-back program. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the end of November. Short term momentum indicators are slightly oversold and trying to recover. Seasonal influences are positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to its 50 day moving average at $41.26.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00116.png "clip_image001[1]")
JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image227.png "clip_image002[1]")
Nike Inc. (NYSE:NKE) – $108.79 added 0.1% after Janney Capital initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a $127 target. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. Resistance is at its all-time high recently set at $112.97. The stock trades above its 200 day moving average and is bouncing from near its 50 day moving average at $107.64. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the beginning of November. Short term momentum indicators are slightly oversold and trying to recover. Seasonal influences are positive. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00315.png "clip_image003[1]")
NIKE, Inc. (NYSE:NKE) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image298.png "clip_image004[1]")
EnCana Corp. (NYSE:ECA;TSE:ECA) – $18.38 is expected to open lower after Credit Suisse downgraded the stock from Outperform to Neutral. The stock has a negative technical profile. Intermediate trend is down. The stock trades below its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been negative since last June. Short term momentum indicators are oversold, but have yet to show signs of bottoming. Better opportunities exist elsewhere.
![clip_image005[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00512.png "clip_image005[1]")
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Interesting Charts
A major reason for strength in North American equity markets yesterday was economic news from China that implied higher than consensus first quarter GDP growth. Actual figure is expected to be released overnight. Consensus is annual growth at an 8.3% rate. Once again, the Shanghai Composite Index has improving short term momentum and positive strength relative to the S&P 500 Index.
Chinese ETFs and related securities are responding.
Major U.S. equity indices recovered on the Chinese news to near the bottom of previous trading ranges, but remain at or below levels closed last Thursday prior to the March employment report. Strength provides an opportunity to reduce positions prior to release of a flood of first quarter earnings reports next week.
Ditto for the TSX Composite Index!
Response to Google’s first quarter report after the close was interesting. Earnings slightly exceed consensus and revenues matched consensus. Initially, the stock came under selling pressure. However, immediately after the company announced a two for one stock split and a stock dividend, the stock rose sharply to $658. After the company’s conference call, the stock closed virtually unchanged from its close at $651.01.
Gasoline prices rose sharply following news released on Wednesday that inventories dropped last week by another 4.28 million barrels. Typical of gasoline inventories at this time of year! ‘Tis the season for gasoline prices to move higher!
Source: www.eia.gov
The Canadian Dollar recovered on the news from China. Nice bounce from support near 99.60 and a close above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving average. ‘Tis the season for the Canadian Dollar to move higher!
Eric Wheatley’s Weekly Listed Options Report
Preamble: I’ve finally put the finishing touches on the English version of the John C. Hood Investment Counsel Inc. Introduction to Options Guide. It’s still being revised, but if anyone from this site wishes to get a sneak peek and help me out with constructive criticism, please write to me at the address below and I’ll send you the draft version. It’s barely twenty pages long, so it’s a slight investment of your time and I would be very grateful. So would John. It’s good to have a rich elder statesman be grateful to you y’know.
*****************
Hello everyone,
I thought I had run out of things to cover last time, when my patron, John C. Hood, sent me the list of questions he was to answer in one of his periodic interviews on BNN. Here is a question which caught my eye:
“What do you think about using a reverse collar for QQQ; selling a $59 put and buying $66 call. I’m hoping to participate in any upside, and I’m comfortable being assigned QQQ if it drops back to $59”.
A reverse collar! Not only haven’t I covered this strategy, it’s actually one of the few compound options strategies which can be quite relevant to investors who have to pay retail transaction fees.
As is made clear in the question, a reverse collar is for people who are bullish (or bearish, though the short call/long put trade is less common and is quite a bit riskier if the call gets assigned) on a stock not only in the short term, but also for the long term. I have expounded at length the advantages of selling options, which brings in premium, stabilising returns and skewing the risk-return ratio in your favour. For someone who has a strong opinion about a stock’s price going up in the short term, you can buy a call and benefit from its leverage. Since buying the call entails paying out money – which seems to put off more than a few people – you can offset the cost of the call by selling a put and setting aside the cash needed to buy the shares should you be assigned. In the example above, the QQQs are instruments which we at J.C. Hood Investment Counsel Inc. like to use in our portfolio management activities: ETFs. If I, as a (hypothetical. The registration process is still ongoing) portfolio manager, wished to be exposed to the NASDAQ and was strongly bullish on the index, this type of transaction could be quite interesting.
The caveat here is the same I bring up often: you are putting on two trades. The size of the trades will determine whether the transaction costs are prohibitive or not. I’m still of a mind to recommend either a) buying calls or b) selling puts, based upon your opinion. That said, a reverse collar makes perfect sense for the bullish person who wishes to take on both a short-term speculative exposure AND a long-term position in the underlying.
Cheers!
Éric Wheatley, MBA, CIM
Options Analyst, J.C. Hood Investment Counsel Inc.
eric@jchood.com
*****************
Little known fact about John Charles Hood #23
Once again this year, scantily-clad twentysomething female worshippers performed their rituals on John Charles Hood’s front lawn at the vernal equinox, putting on quite a show with their fertility dances. Being a pagan idol has its advantages.
Comments on Gold from Dave Skarica
Following is the link:
http://wallstreetwindow.com/node/5634
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Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC April 12th 2012
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: ECA, JPM, NKE
April 13th, 2012 at 8:26 am
Ron Lew: Alderon Iron Ore Corp. (ADV). The exploration company said it agreed to
sell a stake in itself and its Kami iron ore project in eastern Canada to Chinese
steel producer Hebei Iron & Steel Group for C$194 million. Alderon said the
deal with Hebei will give the Chinese steelmaker a 19.9 percent stake in Alderon
and a 25 percent interest in a newly formed partnership that will be established
to own the Kami Project.
Do you still owe ADV.to? I may reduce my position in ADV today.
April 13th, 2012 at 8:40 am
Ana,
I love the Arts. I’m the Treasurer of the local Art Gallery here and on the council of the Northern New York Arts Council. My partner is a screen writer and local artist. I often go to the Metropolitan Opera in New York city, while she wanders off Broadway to take in some of the new plays.
Tawny & Ray,
One of the reasons I hesitated in exiting my SPXU position yesterday was that I was concerned about the China numbers. A friend of mine just returned from there and had some unsettling stories to tell. Entire apartment complexes built – but nobody there – he knows an official that told him that things were going to get rough. I’ll watch today’s action closely.
April 13th, 2012 at 9:25 am
Wayne: Nice move. Looks like the headline manipulators were at it yesterday to suck in the the most possible sheep they could. It looks like the “Sell in May” may be “Sell in April”. You will be rewarded for staying the course and doing the opposite. If you listened to the media yesterday, you would have thought all is well and stocks were headed to the moon.
April 13th, 2012 at 9:26 am
Wayne
Glad I’m still holding my bears and they are not on sell signals. Don V. is suggesting to sell some positions into strength as we are coming into earnings season which are not expected to be good and forward outlook also likely to be on negative side…;. of course they can surprise to the upside. And banks can fudge figures.
Did you see the China article I posted yesterday aft…. some real insight into what is happening inside – from the Chinese…. gotta run.
April 13th, 2012 at 9:37 am
http://www.youtube.com/user/theuptrend?feature=watch
April 13th, 2012 at 9:51 am
Hi Eric (Wheatley) …. message was blocked
Sorry, we were unable to deliver your message to the following address.
:
Remote host said: 550 #5.1.0 Address rejected eric@jchood.com [RCPT_TO]
April 13th, 2012 at 9:51 am
Wayne
I am glad someone confirmed my suspicion.
heard this story sometime ago but with all the hype behind china nobody would have taught this story to be true.
April 13th, 2012 at 9:59 am
Tawny: Congratulations on your bear call yesterday, my assumption was incorrect.
Hope you are making $$$, VXX is not moving much.
April 13th, 2012 at 10:01 am
Good Morning,
Tony, Ron/AB, Mick, Rol Lew,
any chance one of you could comment on whether you see CNQ.TO as a buy or shortsell at this point please?
Will be interesting to see what this Friday the 13th has in store for the markets.
Thanks
KC
April 13th, 2012 at 10:06 am
When a stock price seems to be range bound, do any of you have any tips on what indicators to look for on how one can get in near the bottom and then out at the top of that range. Especially, if its a range thats short 3 to 6 months. I’m looking at TTM-N and wondering if this is a good one to play with the range its confined to. Does volume play a large factor in your decision, if so how do you use it ?
Thanks,
KC
April 13th, 2012 at 10:08 am
Tony,
I think that most of the reporting is done by a journalist by the name of “Sum Flung Dung”!!
April 13th, 2012 at 10:09 am
Wayne – too funny! Happy Friday the 13th!
April 13th, 2012 at 10:13 am
Eve,
If you have a chance and are’nt in pain I’d love to hear in brief yours thoughts about SAP.TO now that its broken above midKeltner and resistances.
Thanks,
KC
April 13th, 2012 at 10:16 am
Kay
Thanks. Actually I am bearish but I am watching the charts, UpTrend and reading financial events, listening to Don V., etc. FAZ has a 4/9/18 cross, so I am watching closly – JPM is down after reporting. TZA also has a 4/9/18 cross. BUT, caution because the Fed’s buddies seem able to control market direction. EPV also has a 4/9/18 cross. I just have to think that after such large run ups, the markets have more likely a downside than upside at this point. But oh, boy, I am often wrong. lol
April 13th, 2012 at 10:19 am
Tawny,
I thought you had left!
Yes, I read the articles – but I tend to take reports from China with a large grain of salt. Economic data is still treated as “state secrets”. Western reporters have told of stories of being harrassed by the authorities about economic reporting. Last year a NY Times reporter was jailed for a few days – then left the country.
April 13th, 2012 at 10:19 am
Wayne, Tawny, Ray,
I agree re. the bear S&P etfs. I’m still in and would like to add as long as my resistance target is not broken. I think the hype from a FED member yesterday re adding more stimulus also contributed to the nice rally. Have to stay in as long as resistance not broken. 1390 was the res I was expecting the S&P to hit (just not in one day). Steve Whiteside indicates that the bears are still in control as long as 1400 is not breached on a daily close. The TSX is a little harder to read.
NTR
Wayne, we have something more in common. I’m an arts lover also and have been collecting since my early 30′s (Canadian contemporary art and mid-century abstract). I was a manager for 3 years at a contemporary art gallery in my spare time. Last night my wife and I were at the dress rehersal for an amazing dance company called Decidely Jazz Dance (DJD). Dance is more my wife’s thing but their performances are great and they have fantastic live jazz musicians and singers as part of their show (I also love jazz and like to support the local jazz scene).
April 13th, 2012 at 10:23 am
Wayne
Part of that report on China yesterday was from inside illegal sources on the web and had been translated by google….and it was all very negative reporting. BUT evwen then, we were advised not to believe everything we read.
April 13th, 2012 at 10:24 am
N.A. markets are not as bad as Europe – have a look …
http://ca.finance.yahoo.com/intlindices?e=europe
April 13th, 2012 at 10:27 am
Which chart would you rather own?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SDS&p=D&b=3&g=0&id=p14204887876
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=SSO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p59038760433
BAC
I checked TD margin rate this morning on this name and it is comparable to Transglobe Apt. REIT. In other words, for every dollar in BAC I can borrow .70 cents. That’s excellent, in show confidence of TD in BAC value.
April 13th, 2012 at 10:28 am
EPV is up over 5% – wish I held more than just a small position. To sell, or to add in, that is the question? Europe is in very bad shape, so …hmmm ??
April 13th, 2012 at 10:28 am
Canuck,
Are you still holding your MFC, SLF buys or was that just a quick 3 days trade? Do you think SLF.to, MFC.to and GWO.to will pull back to the 4MA and thus be a better buy there? I’m skeptical to go long since the 18ma is still downward , however price is sitting right at mid Keltner and Stoch seem positive.
By the way, congratulations on the Honda, wise choice, great but. Love the Honda product, much more reliable than most others. I’m not a fan of the Fords and Chryslers sorts. The Acura products are awesome too.
KC
April 13th, 2012 at 10:30 am
Are any of you thinking about holding SPX bears over the weekend into next week?
Thanks,
KC
April 13th, 2012 at 10:31 am
Rol
post 6
same here.
I think he’s got to many admirers all the women on this board and the from around the world can’t get enough of him that his mail bx is full.
April 13th, 2012 at 10:33 am
Ron/AB,
When I attended U of T, many moons ago – I worked part time at the Bohemian Embassy in Toronto (St. Nicolas st, I think). One Friday night, I had to go to the train station to pick up a jazz musician who was scheduled to play for a couple of nights at the embassy – and had 2 or 3 other gigs in Toronto. The guy was right out “there”. His name was Thelonius Monk! LOL! What a character! I hung with him for a couple of days – he stayed at my apt that first night.
I also used to hang out with John Norris – who had started “Coda” – the Canadian jazz mag. He used to work at Sam’s on Yonge St. Don’t know if it’s still running??
Best!
April 13th, 2012 at 10:41 am
KC
Not that you should give a hoot what I do, but I will likely hold my bears, TAZ, FAZ and SQQ and some HVU. For me, I have learned that I usually sell my winners (which these are) too fast. I know there are many who say these leveraged vehicles should be only a short term trade. BUT, Whiteside of UpTrend holds them until the signals say sell. He told me he even uses theme in his RRSPs. Now, there are suggestions about taking partial profits at price points though.
April 13th, 2012 at 10:43 am
KC
lets do with you what I have done in the past.
look my cnq chart below and where do you see CNQ hitting its head. would you be a buyer here? what shape(pattern) would convince you into buying?
btw thx I was about to buy cnq and having seen what I did made me stand down.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNQ.TO&p=D&b=4&g=0&id=p59648949488
April 13th, 2012 at 10:45 am
HVU going up – past the pivot point on 1 min. SPY clinging desperately to S1 line
April 13th, 2012 at 10:45 am
Ken A/B re #1 ADV-t Alderon
No I do not have it at the moment.
And if I did, I too would lighten up a bit.
Looking at the dailies, you can see the news leaked two days
ago…… Ah! Hindsight! Always 20/20!
That Labrador trough sure has lots of iron ore, my goodness.
KC – CNQ – #9
2 & 1/2 month down trend. Compare that with XOM or CVX,
I have no position in CNQ today.
I was kicked out of a short on April 2.
The down moves persist longer than the up moves.
So, there is a fundamental problem here.
Could it be that CNQ is not getting 103 per barrel
like the USA majors are getting?
So if I had to go in again, it would likely be as a short.
Timing is everything.
SINA SAGA
Tony,
Your “bearish” comments on SINA yesterday is what I am
seeing too. Going back to May 2011, it has been in a downtrend.
The March attempt to overcome that has failed. Nevertheless,
Eve’s double bullish trade idea on the weekly options is really
making out like bandits. Timing is everything! EVERYTHING!
At this stage, I really would NOT be surprised to see some further
shinanigans today and next friday with the weeklies. No position.
April 13th, 2012 at 10:46 am
Hi Wayne. Oh my God, I used to love going to the defunct Sam’s (and A & A’s) on Yonge in my teenage years. I think that I bought my first album there (can’t remember which one, but it wasn’t Judy Collins!).
April 13th, 2012 at 10:51 am
grrrr, really tired today – messed up my sell on stop entry… instead of entering lower price to protect myself from loss, I made a typo and entered higher price. Did not notice, the price was reached, stop triggered and I’m out of a really good looking trade… Just venting – should have had a coffee first!
April 13th, 2012 at 10:51 am
KC
Wouldn’t be buying CNQ today or in the near future by the looks of the chart. It appears that each time it hits a low it pops up the drops to another low. it has been doing this since Feb. Can’t really comment on shorting, I think rol lew may be better at that.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CNQ.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p75582632691&a=234398783
April 13th, 2012 at 10:51 am
Tawny,
I chuckled at your disclaimer
I tend to sell my winners too fast too. I’m asking about the bears, since I missed getting in on them last week. So I’m itching to get in. Especially since Don V. anticipates that next week’s earnings reports will be bad. SPX seems to be pulling back today, so I dont want to miss out on next week again. Thanks for your input.
Thanks,
KC
April 13th, 2012 at 10:53 am
KC,
At this time CNQ is neither a buy nor sell from my perspective. It’s on a watch list. For a buy it needs to at least close above 32.90 and prerably above yesterday’s high at 33.11 (even better if it clears the mid-keltner).
Re. bear S&P ETF’s. I hold HSD and am willing to hold over the w/e depending on the close today, as long as the S&P does not break my resistance levels.
April 13th, 2012 at 10:55 am
Tony,
Great advice. This is why I always like to check with you more experienced folks. The chart makes me want to short CNQ.TO I tried to short yesterday but TD did’nt put it through. However, according to Equity clock seasonality is supposed to kick in, in April and thats why I was reluctant to short. If I do short it today, do you recommend a stop loss on the shortsell at 33.20 or 33.70 areas ?
Thanks,
Kc
April 13th, 2012 at 10:58 am
KC,
Re CNQ
Forgot to mention that a close below 32.04 which would be below the S1 support and 4ma, would iindicate a sell back to S2 support. Basically it’s in wait and see mode now.
April 13th, 2012 at 10:59 am
#21. KC
Acura is Honda anyway. I didn’t bother looking at Acura or Lexus eventhough I was in the entry level area… just found exactly what I was looking for and got a great deal. I didn’t like the looks of it at first but it was different enough from my previous Accords to offer me some excitement. Really did not want to buy another Accord exactly the same even with the leather and Nav, just wasn’t enough of a change for me. No trouble finding the Crosstour in a parking lot… I was looking for a 6 cyl. as I won’t be driving around town so much anymore and when I do it will be highway to AZ. In addition it does have 4 WD which only comes on when needed, so great if I run across snowy or icy patches going through mountain passes.
I like a sedan, so this is a cross between a sedan and an SUV so extra cargo space, but not so much that I feel like I’m driving around in a cargo van or big family SUV. Problems with SUVs is many older people can’t get in… like my mom who is 85 and has had knee replacements and her girlfriend who has had 2 hip replacements… impossible for them… all my friends are getting older too…. some are starting to have these kind of problems.
Ultimately one gets a better trade-in value when one trades in a Honda for a Honda… 2.5 k more than what Toyota offered… and Honda give an extra 1 k off for cash purchase… and 7k off as it is brand new 2011 with all the bells and whistles, the last one they had and wanted to move it out of the show room… no fees or charges for paperwork like tranfers, lien searches, etc….. heck I couldn’t resist a better than 10k saving for a brand new top of the line Honda… lol…wife is happy too, she loves Hondas.
I was a Ford owner for many years, and will never go back…IMO pieces of crap. With a Honda I know that when I turn the key, it will start…lol…and that’s all I really want. Great quality machines.
Yes I am still holding all my recent buys… charts still good, did raise my stop on SLF, left the others alone.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:00 am
KC
Speaking of shorting… I entered my first short ever on the Spain ETF late last week and it was rejected because RBC did not have inventory. Would have been a great move… that is why I ended up with EPV now up 4.86% . Most money is in reg’d vehicles where I cannot short. So I use the bear etfs.
If you look at charts – how the market has moved up – if it is coming down now, it has only just begun, I should think. DYDD
April 13th, 2012 at 11:02 am
Good morning Ron, have you been watching HGU this morning by any chance? Quite the recovery.. from -$0.30 back to yesterday’s closing price.. all of this during weak markets and gold down. I think it’s a very good sign for gold stocks, your thoughts?
April 13th, 2012 at 11:05 am
It was a great time to cover the shorts when SPX dipped well below 1370 on Tuesday. Did not go long though, wish did that.
Then yesterday filled up bucket loads of shorts (stocks) in few select secotrs and some double levered inverse ETFs.
Never believed the mysterious news reports in chinese newspaper yesterday that wall street was all so jolly about. – ‘they’ needed to get out of their longs in coal, energy & base metal stocks that they have been pumping for past several weeks.
Few dozen k profits in just past few days, not bad to cash those out.
Today will watch 1372/1375 level on SPX and then 1358/1360.
DXY back above 80 today.
.
Wayne,
You were mentioning the other day here about currency markets trending generally nicely as opposed to the stock markets, is that friend of yours Ron/BC?
Cause before he left this board, he was mentioning the exact same thing and that he wanted to take a close look at for trading/investing.
If so, congrats to him & you as well for that 4 bagger on FXY futures contracts.
Now if you don’t mind pl.: Do you use interactive brokers for forex trading or something better is out there – for a Canadian Citizen/resident in our brokerage universe? Thanks in advance.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:07 am
kay, did you sell your FCX yesterday? I bought it back this a.m just above $37.. will adjust my stop loss.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:11 am
Re the SPX:
Just in case anyone was surprised today with the markets, I’d like to remind that the SPX was far away from its 4 day MA at yesterday’s close of 1380′s area – the 4 day was at 1373 (now at 1372). The SPX doesn’t like to be away from its 4 day MA for very long (longest is 1 – maybe 2 – full days away from it). The markets had 2 REALLY strong up days following 5 down days. I wrote on Tuesday that after 5 down days, it was not reasonable to expect more down days but that up days should follow. Same holds true when there are 2 or more STRONG up days – it is not reasonable to expect MORE up days to follow – ESPECIALLY if the SPX (and other markets) are far from their 4 day MA’s – which, they all were away from the 4 day as of yesterday. So, now the SPX has come down to 1373 thus far and has bounced up from there by 2 points. Thus, it made it to the 4 day that was showing as of YESTERDAY at end of day. This is REASONABLE to expect this! Also, the SPX went yesterday to its 9 day MA of 1388 (which is also the mid keltner) and stalled there – thus, the next step would be reasonable to assume a down day was coming (due to not being able to get above resistance of the 9 day MA AND due to being too far away from its 4 day MA). This is how the markets work! It is nothing surprising!
Similarly, the bear ETF’s got too far from their 4 day MA’s as of yesterday – thus, they are moving up today to get back up to their 4 day’s. That’s just normal behaviour when it comes to respecting the 4/9/18 day strategy.
There is a possible “W” formation forming on the SPX – this means the SPX could conceivably go back down to test its recent low of 1357 and if that holds, then the SPX could easily go back up to its recent high of 1422 – that would complete the “W”. That might take us into the month’s end (OR just after options expiration for April of Apr 21st) and then “sell in may” takes place at that point.
Of course, it doesn’t HAVE to play out this way – BUT, the looks of the chart suggest that it could very easily play out this way! Here’s the chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p87072543634
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 11:11 am
Hi canuck2004. I guess that you won’t be buying Ford stock, tho it’s tempting under $12. I miss my Honda Prelude. I loved that car, which I considered to be my mid-life crisis car until I bought a two-seater convertible!
April 13th, 2012 at 11:11 am
Already got stopped out of fcx.. off to work now.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:18 am
Hi Slava,
I didn’t see the intraday move for HGU but gold is one of the few areas that interests me on the long side. I am analyzing this today. Gold is in better shape technically then the gold stocks but they are close to a buy for a swing trade.
Here’s something on gold I received today.
http://wallstreetwindow.com/node/5653
April 13th, 2012 at 11:18 am
GMSA,
What did you short?
KC
April 13th, 2012 at 11:23 am
PS to my post 41:
I was going to post yesterday saying that the markets would be down today – but i decided against posting that because I figured most people would have realized that too (due to the MANY discussions there have been on here regarding staying close to the 4 day MA AND due to the markets being FAR away from their 4 day MA’s as of yesterday’s close)! Also, I saw that “canuck2004″ posted yesterday that today would be a down day – so, canuck realized that – so, I figured I didn’t need to post about this yesterday. In hindsight, maybe I should have posted a note on this myself yesterday. Ah well.
The takeaway from this is: to ALWAYS keep in mind the 4 day MA daily rule for both the markets AND for individual stocks – then you’ll have a better idea of what to expect for the following day AFTER a BIG up day OR BIG down day as occurred – in both an individual stock OR the markets.
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 11:28 am
gmsa
Glad to hear you were buying shorts and levg. bears yesterday – I mentioned it and the response was not good so I did not buy more bears but at least I held on to what I bought. (Should have listened tyo my inner voice) Oh, and I did buy 500 shares of HVU at the close yesterday and at the open today.
Will you be holding on to your shorts (sorry I got the wrong mental image of you for a moment there… LOL) and your bear etfs ?
April 13th, 2012 at 11:32 am
Wayne,
Are you sh**ing me…Thelonius Monk!! That’s a great story. The closest I have been to hanging with a famous jazz artist was Sonny Rollins who I saw at a jazz festival and later at a jazz club. Cheers.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:32 am
NTR
Michael: What kind of 2 seater? I bought a Mazda MX5 last year. I put it away in the winter and just brought it out last week. What a hoot. I had a Cougar Convertible 69 years ago when I was 18 and always wanted to get another one. As you said, mid life crisis.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:37 am
Rol lew,
I think SINA today may be going to that $62.50 strike price – I think most of the options guys closed out their positions YESTERDAY for the $62.50 strike price as the puts got down to 20 cents – so, selling them on Tuesday at $2.90 and buying them back 2 days later at under 30 cents is a really good deal for them
Today, they’re even lower (18 cents) (so maybe they closed them today too).
So, maybe they bought the $65 puts yesterday and are selling them today?? As that strike (for puts) is UP right now by 74 cents!! Good deal in one day – what do you think Rol lew as to what “they” did with puts/calls from yesterday to today for the strike prices of $62.50 and $65?
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 11:39 am
KC,
damn! Wrote the reply… hit ‘submit comment’ and nothing came up…unfortunately did not copy it…treid back button on the browser but no help…so I will summarize it now
shorted: fm.to, tck, eca, cog, bhi, slb, img.to, edr.to, txn, ttm, orcl, txn, mga, lnr.to
bought: spxu, hxd.to
Until my a/c was left with no margin/money…all the way till late PM yesterday.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:41 am
gmsa,
No – it wasn’t Ron. I actually suggested trading strictly currencies to him. It all started with a fabulous trading idea that he had on the Aussie Dollar a couple of years ago that I followed. It would have doubled our accounts at the time. But, I traded currencies in another life when I lived in Toronto (still have the training manual somehwere), so I am a bit more familiar with currency strategies.
Yes, I use IB. But, I am trading options on the Rydex ETF’s – FXY (Yen) and the Euro (FXE). You can access them easily enough – I have a site that shows real time options trading – so if my targets are hit – I can get out. Liquidity in these options is quite good – especially the Euro.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:41 am
Ron/AB & Wayne
Well closest I can come to that is leaning on Oliver Jones’ piano years ago when he and Charlie Biddle played casually at a bar downtown Montreal… years ago. Did not chum with him though? psst I was married !
Did chum once with Robert Mitchum though many years ago – he was hitting on me at the Ritz while there to do a movie – he even invited me to lunch and I turned him down!
April 13th, 2012 at 11:42 am
NTR
Hi Michael and Ray,
In the mid 80s to mid 90s, between us, my girl friend and I have had 1 Maxda RX7 and 2 honda preludes. They were all great cars.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:47 am
#42-Michael
Just because I won’t drive them doesn’t mean I wouldn’t buy the stock…lol
April 13th, 2012 at 11:48 am
Hi Ray-Kitchener. I drive a 2005 Chrysler Crossfire all year round. It’s basically a Mercedes, back when Daimler was building unreliable cars. However, it has been the most reliable car that I’ve ever owned. And of course nothing beats a convertible when you’re driving along the Sea-to-Sky Highway (as long as it isn’t raining!).
April 13th, 2012 at 11:49 am
KC
CNQ
my answer is so simple ,since mid feb it hasn’t been able to break above the 18MA so if it does break above that would be my exit on this short.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:52 am
Hi Eve,
Thanks for the SPX perspective in #41. I was going to add to my HSD yesterday but ended up just holding what i had.
Re #46, please post what you’re thinking. There are always new people on the blog that would benifit and even for those of us who have been here awhile, sometimes it’s easy to get distracted and miss the obvious.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:53 am
KC mind you I don’t short stock
reason is if I don’t like I will look for something else to buy and put value I think every stock has value unless they are a dying breed.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:55 am
Eve
I agree with Ron look at me I was about to do a stupid mistake this morning on cnq
saw it was trending lower so I said it was good time to buy but after I reviewed that chart I missed the obvious.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:55 am
Thanks Tony
April 13th, 2012 at 11:57 am
Well Tawny, I finally managed to get my shorts on a few mins ago, so I hope the bears dont try to pull them down
KC
April 13th, 2012 at 11:57 am
And I thought Europe was fixed – is that not what was said last week on both BNN and CNBC. Here we go again.
http://www.cnbc.com/id/47038093
April 13th, 2012 at 11:57 am
Oooh
I see Appl broke below 18MA, TIMBER!!!!
April 13th, 2012 at 12:02 pm
Oooh
18MA as been resistance on some stocks on their way back up
JPM for one
HVU is using the 18MA as support.
April 13th, 2012 at 12:02 pm
Hi canuck2004, can I ask if you have any experience or thoughts on CHE.UN-T, Chemtrade. It was recommended on bnn by a guest I quite like and hope for your opinion. I find your posts very helpful and always scan the posts to read what you say. Enjoy the lovely day, well at least lovely here in Ont. Thanks. Hniel/Kingston
April 13th, 2012 at 12:03 pm
Tony
Ouch – Appl down is a good sign for the bears… I read that it would be Apple to bring the marekts down as google did in the past. It’s a watch for sure.
April 13th, 2012 at 12:05 pm
Tawny,
Pl. hold off on your wrong mental images re. my shorts
Yes, I’m going to hold on to those bear levered etfs until the trend proves it otherwise. May reduce the position for booking some profits on the way though, if feel right. Same goes to the ones I hold in regd. a/c.
.
Wayne,
Thanks for the detailed reply @ #52
Yes I watch those forex crosses closely but have not waded into the forex markets for trading yet… just the time component at this stage of the life with FT job & growing family etc. Still have managed to trade options recently – not those fancy exotic stuff yet just the basic & upto level 4.
I do look at those daily charts on FXC, FXY, FXE, FXA and so on. That site you mentioned in your reply, does it come with IB account only or some external paid website? Will appreciate if you could mention it. I use freestockcharts dot com (mostly for intra day moves) forexpros and futures dot quote dot com. Of course for daily charts stockcharts dot com as well.
.
Eve,
re. your views on SPX this AM.
I add in the currency component to that analysis. Mainly the DXY & EUR/USD. It clarifies the pic. a bit more, in my view.
.
Canuck2004,
I see that you’re quite a believer in that ‘sector rotation model’
Based on your studies of this, do you think that it includes & consider the widening of the economic base of the current world? Or in other words, does it consider & include the global economy & the related effects of it?
My feeling is that it’s purely based on the US economic model from past century. Asking this as I’ve not looked in to it in detail…you might have corresponded with the think-tank behind behind that site.
Could you pl. comment on this? Thanks.
April 13th, 2012 at 12:06 pm
#66-Hniel- sorry, don’t follow it.
April 13th, 2012 at 12:06 pm
re VIX and an ETF that follows it in the short term:
I’m going to throw out another really good ETF that works the way VXX and HVU and TVIX do – BUT, it has greater price moves due to being higher priced than HVU and TVIX – and that ETF is UVXY – PLEASE BE CAREFUL using this!!! as it is very volatile – just as the other ones are too! But thought I would share just in case anyone may be interested.
eve
April 13th, 2012 at 12:13 pm
Tony: Have you seen google? What a set up the street did yesterday. There was a large sucking sound coming from Wall Street at 3:45pm yesterday.
April 13th, 2012 at 12:14 pm
KC
you were asking how to trade a sideways pattern.
these are hard to figure out.
there is no real indicator that will give you an exact answer when to enter and when to exit. MAs do a good job though look at CNQ you know when to enter the short position when to enter the long you draw a trend line below.
now Look at TCK here it has been trading 34-37 for a while.
now tck is in a good short position once it hits the 150MA down to 34$ area. tho indicators are saying its a buy.
As I have mentionned sideways trading is the hardest to figure out.
one company I owned in the past was MWV this one while the paper companies where trending higher this one barely bulged it took me 2 months to realize it was trading sideways(hey I too was a newbie at trading) while the other companies moved between 25-30% this would have doubled my money. as it was trading almost a 1$ per day
April 13th, 2012 at 12:19 pm
Tawny: What % of success do you have with Whiteside? ie: % of winning trades?
April 13th, 2012 at 12:30 pm
# 68-gmsa
The US is the world, when it comes to the stock market… it’s the biggest financial market therefore it dominates. More information can be found on that website I posted.
April 13th, 2012 at 12:31 pm
Hi everybody, just something of my personal experience I’d like to share with the board. I’ve been working on day trading using pivot points and 4/9/18 MAs. Had very mixed results mostly due to lack of discipline – not setting the stop losses. Finally, today I “got it” – had a “light bulb” moment – now I look at my charts and see what to do. As long as I set up my stop loss (now I really see where – by looking at the pivots) I’m fine (if the trade is going well I move them up – unfortunately no trailing stop with my brokerage). So, happy day for me today – hope the money making trend continues! Thank you for all your posts – I’ve learned tons from you and will continue to do so! Good luck with your trades today and have a great weekend everyone!
April 13th, 2012 at 12:34 pm
Tony,
re.# 72
You wrote “As I have mentionned sideways trading is the hardest to figure out.”
It’s actually the least harmful eitherways instead (to me anyways)….why?
Cause:
#1 your risk & rewards are best defined there with that range.
#2 Then you look at the overall fundamentals of that sector, down in this case, so easier to go short on the top of that range & cover at/near the bottom. If courageous then buy at that bottom & sell at the top!
Having said that everyone has their own strategies & trading styles like most people don’t short.
Was reading somewhere recently that the easiest trades are the ones that are obvious but hard to stick to. For exapmple, Wayne mentioned about one of his winning trades recently HND.TO – so easy & confortable. Keep buying at the support & take it easy.
Thought about this in past 6 months many times but changing fund needs & my short term trading style kind of prevents me…
Should have considered it for my regd. a/cs.
April 13th, 2012 at 12:39 pm
gmsa,
You can watch the currencies and futures on the Forexpros site.
I pay $ 60.00 per month for my platform with real time option/stock quotes.
You can also acccess the CBOE webpage for option quotes – I think that it’s delayed by 15 minutes.
http://www.cboe.com/DelayedQuote/DQBeta.aspx
April 13th, 2012 at 12:50 pm
gmsa,
How about this one.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CIG&p=D&yr=0&mn=6&dy=0&id=p77945998172
April 13th, 2012 at 12:58 pm
SINA SAGA………..
Eve,
I thinkthat I will have to print out the weekly chains
beginning today, as I lose track of where the volumes & OI
move to day to day.
The wk2′s are saying 65 and 67.5
the wk3′s are saying 65, 67.5and would you believe 70?
Oh… another one to look at is LVS
?
April 13th, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Tony, Thanks for your views on sideways movements.
April 13th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Canuck2004,
Thx for the reply.
I partially agree on that part – ‘US is the World’ – cause the US socks are actually very dependant on the other emerging economies of the world for their product & services and it’s not the same economic world that we saw uptil early 90s. Thought you could have a view on the shifting underlying dynamics that this site talks about when it looks at the ‘sector rotation’. Also if it changes the economic picture (even within the US) considering the demographic shift & increased dependancy on high yield for income in next few years.
I will look in to it further.
.
Wayne,
Appreciate your reply @ #77. Thx for the link as well.
Congrats on your long HND.TO position
.
Mr. Ben is about to speak…let’s see what comes out in next 60mins.
Ms.Yellen put a reverse spin to what Bernanke said few days back. Will Ben push the pendulum back? mystery deepens….
April 13th, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Anyone invested in HEP (Horizons Enhanced Income Gold Producers ETF). Great Yield at 15%, however down 30% off the 52 week high, in line with ABX and G, both down a bout 27%. Pays you monthly while you wait for Gold to move higher.
April 13th, 2012 at 1:14 pm
This is the season CAD to move higher. That means EURO and GOLD will move higher as well since USD will get weaker.
I am waiting for a confirmation, but am ready to buy some more GOLD.
What’s you guys’ thoughts?
April 13th, 2012 at 1:15 pm
Ray,
I am very interested in HEP after reading your post. I wonder if anyone owns it or had a serious look. Any catch?
April 13th, 2012 at 1:20 pm
gmsa: Do you have a link to Ben speaking
April 13th, 2012 at 1:23 pm
Young
All HEP.to has done since inception is go lower, it may pay a nice dividend doesn’t mean you will come out ahead at the end of the day.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=HEP.TO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p34010468877&a=264309665
April 13th, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Wayne,
re.# 78
Great chart! Wish the stockcharts would translate the co. name in english as well…lol!
On a closer look, that’s a great electrical & telco. utility stock in Brazil with okay yield.
Thx will put in a watch list, may buy it when it catches a flu.
On the side note, yields from these US listed ADRs to a Canadian Citizen are taxed by both CDN & US govt in margin a/c? Is it different for a CDN regd. a/c?
Will welcome any inputs.
April 13th, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Ray
I have seen it, last night I taught my option theory failed me
As Rachel had asked me at their previous earnings report. if she should be in or out.
theory is the following.
Just before they report earnings since they reported after the close it was yesterdays option to look at if they are buying calls you go short, and if they are buying the puts you buy the bulls
and theory just hasn’t failed once more so this is the third consecutive option/earnings i view like this
so Goog and Appl have both worked superbly
April 13th, 2012 at 1:27 pm
Tony,
Looking at the daily chart for TCK.b and FCX, does one look better over the other to shortsell? Is JJC a decent benchmark for these and which other stocks normally move in tandem with TCK and FCX?
Thanks
April 13th, 2012 at 1:29 pm
# 81-gmsa
The US being the largest financial market in the world is not an opinion, it’s a statistic….a point of fact.
Views on Sector Rotation:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sector_rotation
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/trading/05/020305.asp#axzz1rwUr1zZc
April 13th, 2012 at 1:29 pm
Young,
Which gold related companies or equities are you looking at buying here on the buy signal?
Thanks,
KC
April 13th, 2012 at 1:31 pm
SINA SAGA
LVS is definitely definitely a 60, and maybe a 62.5
SINA is really messing things up – still saying 65 but
staying between 63.3 to 63.7. What a bummer
Go LVS!
Did you notice that the IV on SINA calls is zero for wk2
but still in the 60′s for the wk 3. I don’t know what
that means. But I saw it @ last thursday’s opex too… uuhhh??
April 13th, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Ray-Kitchener,
Sorry no links that I know of… was watching him on CNBC…but they haved moved the cameras to somewhere else. My guess is CNBC will try to show the Q & A session live once it starts. Not sure though.
April 13th, 2012 at 1:31 pm
KC, actually FCX is holding up very well given that copper is down so much today. I wouldn’t short tck or fcx UNLESS it’s intraday only with a stop loss. Someone (I believe Eve) posted a link to an article yesterday discussing copper demand and prices.. both are likely to stay strong even if China slows down.
April 13th, 2012 at 1:32 pm
Hmm..
“13 Apr 2012 12:57 ET
CNW Group
SNC-Lavalin (TSX: SNC) confirms that the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP) is executing a search warrant at its head office at 455 René-Lévesque Blvd West. The warrant relates to an investigation of certain individuals who are not or are no longer employed by the Company. As previously stated, the Company is cooperating fully with all investigations regarding this or any other matters’ and intends to respond to all requests from the authorities. Because the investigation is currently ongoing, SNC-Lavalin is not able to comment further at the moment.
SNC-Lavalin is one of the leading engineering and construction groups in the world and a major player in the ownership of infrastructure, and in the provision of operations and maintenance services. SNC-Lavalin has offices across Canada and in over 40 other countries around the world, and is currently working in some 100 countries. http://www.snclavalin.com.”
April 13th, 2012 at 1:38 pm
gmsa,
I trade these through my partner’s IRA account (like an RRSP account). So, there is no tax until she withdraws the money (some states do NOT tax IRA withdrawals, nor do they tax Social Security). I believe that all provinces tax your OAS and any RRSP withdrawals.
You’d probably be hit with a “withholding tax” here – but you’d get the credit in Canada. You’d have to confirm that with a tax professional.
Part of the gain in those Brazilian securities is the currency gain – the Real has been on a tear lately. Need to investigate further – but they are very strong companies.
April 13th, 2012 at 1:41 pm
Slava,
I do see that. JJC is oversold and at bottom of Keltner. TCK and FCX are still below their downtrend lines. I figured if I were to short them today, they’d go lower next week if the market is bad next week. I figured that maybe TCK.B.TO will hith resistance ast 50dma and FCX at the 20dma.
KC
April 13th, 2012 at 1:42 pm
Slava,
I was about to mention this SNC.TO as it just came up on my radar, wish noticed it when it was testing 37 level.
There is never just ONE cockroach.
Re.TCK & FCX they look the same but are two diff. animals fundamentally. Wrote to you re. this few days back & never heard back from you…looks like you didnot read that. And if you’ve NOT noticed yet, china is not buying in hoards anymore & is definitely slowing for past many months. Why try swimming upstream by going long, unless a day trade?
Ray-Kitchnere,
Q&A has started live on CNBC.
April 13th, 2012 at 1:46 pm
Young: None that I know of. Dividends are paid from dividends they receive as well as covered calls. The drop is in line with all the major Gold companies. Most are nearing their 52 week lows. With $ printing everywhere and the race to devalue one’s currency to enhance exports, commodities will respond such as Oil and GOLD. If you compare the value of the $US to the Euro 5 years ago, it is about the same as both have been using monetary policy to devalue their currencies. As compared to Canada and Aussie, the $US is down over 30%. Even more so against the Yen and Renminbi (China). There is no doubt that the $ is headed lower, thus Gold will be the play. I am watching this one and may enter in the next couple of weeks.
April 13th, 2012 at 1:47 pm
gmsa, I must have missed your post.. Would have been amazing to hear about SNC the moment the news was announced – for shorting purposes.
Most of my trades these days are day trades on margin. In and out with a stop loss. My gut feeling is telling me to hold gmcr.. hmm.. not sure if I should. That same gut feeling told me to hold HGU and look what happened there last week
April 13th, 2012 at 1:48 pm
I’ll try to buy some osk.to back around $10.35, 2000 shares for a hold.
April 13th, 2012 at 1:56 pm
FCX has been trading in the same range for the last 1.5 hours.. I’m wondering which way it will go in the final two hours. Hmm.
April 13th, 2012 at 1:57 pm
Bernanke must have said smth to crash gold again? So sick of this guy speaking..
April 13th, 2012 at 2:03 pm
Wayne,
Thx for #95 & the details.
I overlaid USD/BRL over the CIG.
Looks like some fundamental strength on CIG’s part as the currency cross is almost unchanged over past 2 & 1 year as well as 6 month.
.
Slava,
check out the post #3 & #7(bottom part) from Tues. Apr.10
April 13th, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Wayne,
Thx for #95 & the details.
I overlaid USD/BRL over the CIG.
Looks like some fundamental strength on CIG’s part as the currency cross is almost unchanged over past 2 & 1 year as well as 6 month.
.
Slava,
check out the post #3 & #7(bottom part) from Tues. Apr.10
April 13th, 2012 at 2:08 pm
Ray,
RE HEP.to.
Haven’t seen this one before. Chart is tracking very close to HGU over the last year. Could be very intersting with the dividend. Thanks!
April 13th, 2012 at 2:14 pm
There’s HEE and HEX also in this mix. I have been tracking them for a month or so – terrible charts. Very low volume – but great monthly divvies – but you lose on the weakness.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:14 pm
Slava: The Americans sure like that Mexican restaurant. I can’t believe that it continues to move up day after day. Unbelievable. It would sure be nice to know once that fad is over.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Ray, tell me about it! I’m still watching CMG in disbelief..
April 13th, 2012 at 2:19 pm
Re: HEP (Horizons Enhanced Income Gold Producers ETF)
Without checking this out in any way, I’m going to hazard a guess that there is a high percentage of ROC (return of capital). Hope someone proves me to be wrong.
signed: “not a fan of H’s”
April 13th, 2012 at 2:23 pm
I just shorted CMG again.. couldn’t help it.. 300 shares
All time high.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:26 pm
Ron: It moves with the Gold companies. Pretty close to what ABX and G has done. If you compare the decrease off the 52 week high as compared to Gold companies:
HEP 33%
ABX 25%
G 26%
K 48%
Eld 34%
Yri 17%
I will wait for now and see what the $US does in the next couple of weeks. I bet that Ben can’t wait to start printing. His banking buddies are anxious.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:27 pm
Slava
Since you are the Darvas box queen, this is for you
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=CMG&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p89472875961&a=264300246
April 13th, 2012 at 2:30 pm
mick, I see what you are getting at
No worries, I’ll be covering my short today or Monday. The stock got a couple of analysts’ upgrades again in the last 24 hours hence the new lift off orchestrated by hedge funds.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:33 pm
mick, may I ask for your opinion on GMCR? My guess is that you don’t like the stock, I’m looking more for a swing trade in the next 2-3 weeks.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:35 pm
Irwin: You may be right, however once you have done some research you could let us know. Thanks.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:37 pm
Young, Slava,
BNN just saying that people seem to be moving out of gold and commodities and into the US dollar today.
KC
April 13th, 2012 at 2:37 pm
http://stocktargetprice.com/index.php?s=stock&q=cmg
April 13th, 2012 at 2:38 pm
KC, I’m glad that BNN is capable of stating the obvious..lol..
April 13th, 2012 at 2:40 pm
I am wondering if anyone is holding short positions over the weekend?
Have not had an opportunity to start reading posts, so pardon me if this has been covered.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:42 pm
R-K #116
No, I won’t be researching any H’s
as I mentioned, not a fan of those.
But it has been my experience with quite a few securities that pay a high dividend that much of it is ROC, and I usually don’t find out about it until tax time. ROC isn’t necessarily a bad thing, it’s just something to be aware of, and if it suits the investor’s strategy, then all is well.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:45 pm
Slava
GMCR did have a nice run from 2009 until Sept of last year, then it fell out of favor. Wasn’t there some news with regards to SBUX? Regardless, looks like it might go lower so I would not be a buyer.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GMCR&p=W&b=5&g=0&id=p05090500329&a=264317222
April 13th, 2012 at 2:48 pm
Ray,
Gold and the producers are both looking interesting here in the sense that I can see the setup (oversold and early signs of reversing) but I’m not getting the signals to buy yet and it doesn’t look like it’s going to happen today. Looking at HGU, If I remain disciplined I can’t buy it yet. Someone who wants to be more agressive could take a gamble on it popping to the 18ma at 9.51 but that would be a counter trend trade which increases the risk.
If you look at SLF.TO, there was a setup but no buy signal when canuck bought it the other day but the difference is that the trend was up and the price was at support. So although he gambled a bit on the entry, the risk was less.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Thanks mick.. So what are your plans for the weekend? Nice and sunny in North Van today?
April 13th, 2012 at 2:52 pm
Ron, why not live on the edge a bit? Get a line of credit and buy $220k worth of HGU..for a hold.
P.S. Okay, I’m being sarcastic
April 13th, 2012 at 2:54 pm
I was just thinking how irresponsible it is to upgrade a super expensive stock like CMG a week before earnings annoucement to a much higher price target? Totally crazy… or perhaps those analysts already know the quarterly results.
April 13th, 2012 at 2:57 pm
Ron/AB could buy Slava’s HGU at a good price! I’m looking at going long silver again; Mondays have been good to silver (while Tuesdays are bad).
April 13th, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Anyone able to comments on the charts of SBUX, YUM and GIS please? Does sbux look like a good short from the R2 back to the R1 on the pivot points or does it look like its too risky and will keep riding upper Keltner band? Are these considered defensive ones if the market still continues down?
Thanks,
KC
April 13th, 2012 at 3:01 pm
Michael, good point, Ron can just buy my HGU holdings at my breakeven price
lol
I was tempted to tell my Michael that not being around my computer on April 2nd cost me about $30k.. one very expensive Cancun vacation! He made a big scene on April 1st and made me swear that I won’t log in for three days.. and I kept my promise to him. The things we do for men!
April 13th, 2012 at 3:05 pm
mick and/or Michael, what do you think of FCX?
April 13th, 2012 at 3:09 pm
Ron/AB: I agree. I am going to wait for confirmation. There will be time to enter closer to the turn.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:11 pm
Slava,
Well it is looking really tempting but if I do gamble it won’t be with $220K worth:)
It will go up eventually don’t worry. I don’t know where you’re entry was but if it does reverse I would look at around 10.90-11.00 as the first area for profit taking.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Slava
If you look at the weekly chart for FCX it has been in a downward trend since Jan 2011. It did have a nice run from Oct to Feb along with the rest of the market but then started it’s descent and hitting new lows along the way, so I would not be a buyer .
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p15014459092&a=261669724
April 13th, 2012 at 3:21 pm
KC
JJC ok don’t know what to do about it, it seems to love to follow the 150MA but not to a T.
TCK is better looking then FCX,
tck has a floor at 34 and ceilling at 37
FCX not good looking every high since march have been lower then previous high and so goes for the low’s they have been trending lower.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:22 pm
Damn CMG.. down $1k on it.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Slava
if you want to know about why FM.to performed so well in the last few days other then the talk of some buyout, Options ths week have been favorable upto 23$
April 13th, 2012 at 3:27 pm
Eve,
Thank you for #41 and #46. Yes, please post the obvious, reminders are very helpful.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:32 pm
Hi Slava. Mondays tend to be bullish for stocks, especially miners. FCX has a decent yield and there is a gap that was created today at $37.80 or so. But it’s in a downtrend, so wouldn’t be holding it for a long time.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:39 pm
KC
SBUX, YUM, GIS
SBUX
has a nice chart not breaking down on a down day is a good sign to enter on a good pull back probably hits 38MA and this will be your entry point.
YUM
Pull back on the 18MA would be a good entry if it fails drops to 50MA
GIS
This one has support around the 200MA so don’t hold on to far below.
So basically you buy on the MAs I just gave you and have a tight stop otherwise you will get to second support and this is not what you worked for. to lose money.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:41 pm
#120, in regard to my question of holding short positions over the weekend.
I like to check what market moving reporting is done on the next day, for a position, this is for your information:
Do the forecast numbers look reasonable? If they do, is it a short market on Monday in the USA?
Reporting on Monday:
8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.9%
8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m 0.4% 1.1%
8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index 18.2 20.2
9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchase 41.3B 101.0B
April 13th, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Slava: What happened to the Plunge Protection Team? They must be at CMG. LOL Just kidding. Happy Friday. Wine & Beer time almost here.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
Michael, I’ve decided I’m going to hold my gmcr over the weekend. I will probably not cover my CMG short (looking at Appl and pcln the only reason why cmg price is up is because of upgrades). Still thinking about fcx.. probably will keep it too.. but then I’ll be deviating away from “day trading” and what if these positions don’t work out? Hmm.. I also bought osk.to back as planned.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Canuck
I think this will interest you
BBD yesterday I saw calls being traded as low as 2.5 (price is 4$ why give someone the opp to make money at 2.5 when I have to buy it at 4)
today its 3$ calls
so expecting BBD to hit 3$ in a month or so.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Michael,
Have a look at the forecast numbers and previous numbers that will be reported prior to the market opening on Monday. These are all market moving numbers.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:49 pm
Michael and Slava,
If you’re interested in copper/gold plays, check out CS.to, the chart looks interesting today.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:53 pm
Ana,
re.#120 & #140,
Great points esp. @ #140, the prob. with these is that you get entangled so much within the data itself that you get distracted from the trading.
What I generally like to do is take a pulse of the perception of what’s coming out in next few days/weeks through different readings from various sites. Cause those perceptions are generally baked into the markets already. Technicians are firm believers of this last point.
Weekly trends of the sectors & indices along with forex, bonds & VIX gives you much more to think & look at.
Also look at secular growth trends & decliners as well & pick what you like for long & short.
Needless to say, major data releases do need to be looked at very carefully & thn check the pulse as to how the market reacts and go back to your own thesis to test/tweak.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:55 pm
Ron/AB
So much for commodities…. bet you are glad you waited to see what China brought or did not bring to the table. Yep, I think it was a suckemin day yesterday! Hindsite perfect.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Ana, those look like tempting bear numbers, but they should be baked in – so hard to say . Now if those numbers miss by a signif amount, now we got a sure SHORT!, If they surprise upside, then we go the other way…I am not courageous to position here, like to know the numbers first in this crazy marketplace.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:56 pm
Ron/AB, tony, and Ana,
Ok, I guess I’ll post what I feel is obvious to see / know re the markets behaviour/ performance – i just think sometimes that I post too much and give info that people on here already know about themselves – so that’s why I won’t ALWAYS post my thoughts on things (I actually keep a lot of things to myself – even though it probably doesn’t “seem” like I do
) – especially if I’m seeing something different in price to what someone on here has posted they are seeing (this happened with you tony – 3 times for 3 diff stocks – in the last 6 months – one being AMZN – but I decided I needed to say what I was seeing/ thinking on that stock due to it being so high priced and I didn’t want someone to buy it thinking it was going to go to $220 – sorry about that tony – just trying to look out for others really – the other 2 as well, didn’t get to the price you had posted they “should” / “would” get to – and I saw that on the chart that they wouldn’t get to those prices – unless a BIG change came – and they didn’t get near what you had seen from the options – remember that options often “lie” just to suck people in – both of the other 2 stocks were calls you were making by looking at the options 2 months out – and I just knew they were just a “head fake” – or i had VERY strong suspicion they were I should say – and they turned out to be just that as neither stock got close to those prices you were seeing in the options – yet I kept my thoughts to myself on those 2 and didn’t post what I was seeing).
Canuck2004 though DID post yesterday that the markets would be down today – and he of course is another very reliable source on here and knows the markets well – so, that’s another reason why I didn’t think I needed to post anything about the markets today.
Anyway, ok, thanks guys for letting me know! Will keep it in mind
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 3:57 pm
ron/ab
are you still playing with ree?
April 13th, 2012 at 3:58 pm
Wayne
Sold my EPV at a smallish profit – I think I will find better opportunities in N.A. so freed up a few more US$.
According to UpTrend if Apple closes below 615. it will be a SELL signal…. and I read it is Apple that will lead the markets down.
April 13th, 2012 at 3:59 pm
Ana, Oilers
Re: Oil. I agree that it has been very frustrating lately. Looks like today will be a no new info day with it being an inside bar…so far…
April 13th, 2012 at 3:59 pm
In addition to clarify #140:
Reporting on Monday:
8:30am USD Core Retail Sales m/m Forecast 0.6% Previous 0.9%
8:30am USD Retail Sales m/m Forecast 0.4% Previous1.1%
8:30am USD Empire State Manufacturing Index Forecast 18.2 Previous 20.2
9:00am USD TIC Long-Term Purchase Forecast 41.3B Previous101.0B
Sorry, previous post was in a chart form so confusion as to forecast and previous numbers.
April 13th, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Eve
I accept my faults.
as no one is perfect(even tho I think you are)
ok Amzn I was half wrong it did go move to 210.
I would like to know my other two mistakes pls… will do my 5yr pity pls face 8(
April 13th, 2012 at 4:01 pm
sold CSTR on the morning spike …may try to close the gap…
April 13th, 2012 at 4:01 pm
Slava,
Re copper article posted yesterday – nope, wasn’t me who posted
re FCX: It sold off today to go just below its 4 day MA of $36.74 (it went down to $36.70) and then bounced up from there. Just another example of a stock needing to get baCk to its 4 day MA is all – nothing really dire going on with the stock – EXCEPT that it’s stuck in the bottom half of the keltner – so, IF it can’t get above there (it’s been there for the last several months – same with TCK too), then it won’t get any higher than $38 (as that is the mid keltner area right now).
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 4:04 pm
ANa, if I’d seen it, I would have just said DITTO to gmsa’s great post at #146.
gmsa: nicely written gmsa!
April 13th, 2012 at 4:05 pm
AAPL
there we have it folks aapl closed below 18MA for the first time since december.
April 13th, 2012 at 4:05 pm
Tony,
No not at this point. I was mainly in and out of AVL.TO in March and kept selling at 3.10. When it started to go sideways at the end of march I decided to stay out unless it could break above 3.13 but it couldn’t so I never got back in.
If this is just a correction we are in, then at some point the TSX and resource stocks will recover but i am wiating for good entry signals instead of trying to buy cheap stocks.
April 13th, 2012 at 4:05 pm
Sky,
Congrats on making some coins on CSTR!
how did you get in to CSTR? Do you follow it fundamentally & technically?
Or it was a pure trend based decision on your part.
thx
April 13th, 2012 at 4:07 pm
#143- Tony
I don’t own it anymore as I don’t like the action on it. TX anyway.
April 13th, 2012 at 4:07 pm
For your amusement now or on the weekend…. funny Brit video about the crisis in Europe
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/friday-fun-financial-fatalism
It seemed appropriate, given Europe is hitting the wall again in its vicious cycle of self-financed self-hypnotizing recovery-less recovery, to present the ‘World Collapse Explained In 3 Minutes’ that so mockingly relates the real state of absurdity we face in today’s financial markets.
April 13th, 2012 at 4:09 pm
Rol lew,
Yes I have LVS in my watch list too – same too with SBUX – it’s extremely overbought right now BUT looks like it is heading to either $62.50 OR $65 for next Friday’s opex day. Same too with LNKD (as I wrote to you yesterday).
SINA stuck between the 2 strike prices today (same thing occurred too last Friday). Next week, it should be going to $65 or $67.50 (or maybe $70) – any of those prices wouldn’t surprise me as it can move $12 in ONE day!! It is HIGHLY manipulated after all
In one week in March, it went from $60 to $80 – in ONE WEEK!! – so typical! Then was overbought (on stochastics) and came back down again to get to oversold on stochastics – back down to $60. I did write though to someone on here last week (Mac I think was the person??) that there’s a big “M” showing on the chart and that IF that M gets completed, then it is going back down to $47/ 48 area (where it was in January – 1 month later, it was at $77.80 – yup, just in 1 month, a $30 gain!!).
Yes, please do keep track daily of those weekly options strike prices Rol as I would be interested in continuing to hear your thoughts on it each week
Thanks Rol
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 4:10 pm
Tony,
Re AAPL
Well that could just be the sign of the times for the US market.
April 13th, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Eve, well, I’m holding quite a bit of fcx into the weekend, hopefully it’s okay. Here is that article re copper:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-11/top-analysts-see-copper-rising-even-as-china-slows-commodities.html
April 13th, 2012 at 4:12 pm
Ron/AB,
As we were discussing last week:
See the futures right now on BNN or the forexpros site?? They’re reflecting what occurred TODAY on the markets – they’ll show differently starting on Sunday at 6 pm EST for Monday’s trading day
During the week though, did you see when they turned over at around 430 pm to 445 pm Mon to Thurs?? (as compared to what they were showing on BNN or forexpros at just after 4 pm EST) (to around 420 pm/ 430 pm).
Eve
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 4:13 pm
It’s amazing how CMG was pushed up to new highs, even though appl and pcln are in the red today. I call it “CMG plunge protection team”.
April 13th, 2012 at 4:15 pm
Eve, I really like forexpros website. It also fits nicely on the screen of my Nexus Galaxy.
April 13th, 2012 at 4:17 pm
gmsa,
Oh I forgot to say to you re your note to me on watching the currencies:
I agree completely with you!!! I look though at the Cdn dollar as when it gets close to that $1.01 area, it’s a good proxy for telling us the markets are going to have a down day the next day (it going up a cent yesterday was a clear sign of the markets being down today
). So, I look at the CAD – but I guess you look at the EUR – whatever works I guess is a good thing 
That’s what counts 
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 4:18 pm
gmsa,
Yes, it was trending and had I checked it more closely yesterday, I would have sold it. SO it was just good luck
April 13th, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Slava
re:cmg
One day you will learn not fight it’s trend. With your risk tolerance, you could have bought a few call options and been up alot by now.
Not sure why you didn’t try shorting your other favorite, did you give up on it?
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=LULU&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p44349369208&a=264326047
April 13th, 2012 at 4:25 pm
Eve: 149- I wouldn’t worry about stating what you see. That is how decisions are made. When there are two different thoughts on the same subject the middle person can make an informed decision of their own. Just look at election debates, we take in all that good trust worthy info and put the best person in office to spend our money like mad. This last sentence is, or course, just for fun
April 13th, 2012 at 4:28 pm
Eve,
It is great to have your info sharing posts. You explain things so clearly and they often contain such great reminders and are often great for new learning too. For instance, I hope to have time this weekend to go back and follow along on the SINA saga that you and ROl Lew were writing about…sounds intersting…and intriguing
April 13th, 2012 at 4:40 pm
Good chart and info to share:
http://www.stocktiming.com/Friday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm
“So, one could say that Institutions have been in Distribution since early April and the chart show’s a lower/low which (with lower/highs) means that they are in a down trend relative to their net Buying and Selling activity.”
April 13th, 2012 at 4:45 pm
RayK re#82 HEP.to
I have been watching this as well. My concern is, while they have tracked the underlying stocks pretty closely on the way down, they will likely lag on the way up. Their strategy is to wright covered calls 10% out of the money (adjusting higher or lower based on volatility). They also wright calls on 100% of the holdings on a monthly basis. So on any material move up in the share price (which is likely here, at some point), most of the holdings could get called away.
April 13th, 2012 at 4:48 pm
tony,
re post 154:
re this:
as no one is perfect(even tho I think you are)
LOL- thanks – you’re sweet – BUT, I make my fair share of mistakes too – as that’s just normal really
(I’ll often post my mistakes on here too when I’ve been wrong on something)
Ok, since you asked, the other 2 you discussed were:
In Oct/ Nov, you wrote that POT would be at $60 in December (it was trading in the $40′s at that time)
the second one was in February:
TCK.B – you wrote it should be at $50 by April options expiration as that is what the calls were showing. I then wrote a post about a week later on TCK.B (and on copper) and how TCK has been in a downtrend since Feb 2011 and that on the WEEKLY chart, all it does is go up to just above the mid keltner and then comes down again – so, I wrote that it needed to get DECISIVELY ABOVE the mid kelt area (around $42 at that time) in order to “suggest” it is going higher in price. I wrote that the SAME thing happened in March/ April of 2010 and 2011 with TCK.B in that it had been going down since it hit a high each year in January – and that even though its seasonal period was until May, it never panned out in each of those years – and I wrote that this year looks to be the same! I wrote that partially due to what you had written the week or so earlier about what you were seeing in the April options expiration as I knew it couldn’t get there (and the other part was due to wanting people to know what I was seeing in the charts AND what occurred with copper and TCK in both 2010 and 2011 and how this year looked to be the same as yes, TCK did hit its high in January this year, and has been coming down really ever since – with yes, that range you wrote about of being between $34 and $37 – I see that too
).
I ended up saying my thoughts on COG last November when Ron/BC had posted 3 posts stating the support at that $83 level was holding up well and how due to its breakout it had, that COG should continue going higher. I finally wrote something to Ron/BC about what he was writing re COG and told him that COG doesn’t tend to respect break out areas OR strong areas of support (I wrote that in order to protect people from buying COG at too high a price) – and my doing that did NOT turn out very well AT ALL!!! as I’m sure many on here recall as well – so, that’s why I will often not post something on here if I see something different (in price) to what someone on here has posted regarding where they see the price going for a stock – as when I did that with COG, it didn’t work out well for me AT ALL!! BUT, when I AGREE with someone’s point of view of where a stock’s price is going, I will often post my agreement on here too – I did this with COG in February when you had written to CJ telling her you saw COG going down to the $31′s (when it was trading at over $35 at the time) – and I agreed with your price analysis – so, I posted that too (that I agreed with what you were saying re price)! (plus gave additional STRONG support prices for COG that COG “could” get down to in price of $30, and $27.50 $28 areas).
Thanks tony
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 4:51 pm
PS tony:
Oh just to clarify something re my post on POT.TO:
In Dec POT.TO was under $40 – it was trading IN the $40′s when you had written in Oct/ Nov that it would be at $60 in December.
eve
April 13th, 2012 at 5:06 pm
Slava,
re forexpros:
Oh I agree with you!! It is a GREAT site!! I have it open every day on my computers too
re FCX:
Ok, looking at it on the WEEKLY chart, it is oversold on stochastics (that is good for a bounce up from here) – BUT, there is a big head and shoulders pattern on there too – and IF that H and S pattern plays out, then FCX should bounce up from here to form the right shoulder – it should bounce up to around $39 / $40 area – and “coincidentally”, this is also the mid keltner on the WEEKLY chart (mid kelt is at $39.79) – so, that looks to be the high it would get to in the short term and then after that, it comes down (and thus looks like the H and S pattern would complete – IF the neckline of course gets broken). Here’s the chart that shows the pattern (on the WEEKLY chart):
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCX&p=W&b=7&g=0&id=p97662172606
on the DAILY chart, it has only gone to the mid keltner and then comes down from there (has done this since Feb this yr). The mid kelt on the DAILY is at $38 – it hit there yesterday and then came down. So, it should go up from here BUT it might not get above $38 or possibly $39/ $40. So PLEASE be careful with this one hun
re CMG and PCLN and AAPL:
It seems CMG has decoupled itself from PCLN and AAPL – but like you wrote today Slava, it’s most likely due to the upgrades CMG has received in the last few days
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 5:18 pm
Hi Hurk,
Well, the reason I don’t like posting what “I” may see versus what someone else on here has posted that they are seeing is not because I don’t think people can’t make their own decisions – it’s because I don’t want to step on anyone’s toes on here – and possibly make them feel bad OR WORSE, have them lash out at me (the way that it occurred with Ron/BC in November re COG – that was really awful what occurred with that!!) – so, I don’t want to have anything like that be repeated!! So that’s why I hesitate to state something that I may see differently in price versus what someone else on here has posted. I also told Lin and Rami/AB in February when they bought SNDK at over $50 that I didn’t think SNDK would go above $52 and that it was stuck in a range of $44 to $51 areas until its next reporting date (Lin didn’t seem to take that very well as she posted several times AFTER that day to Rami/AB saying see, SNDK is going up – and wrote a “general” post saying she never says anything to someone about THEIR trades – she told me that in her opinion it was going to $53 – it only went above $51 twice since then – and it had a high of $51.80 – then just a week or so ago when it was at $50, it gave a warning on its next reporting of earnings, and the stock tanked after that and is now trading in he $41′s).
So, it doesn’t usually work out very well for me when I DO post something DIFFERENT on here to what someone else on here has posted regarding where a stock is going in price. I think though that for tony, he’s ok with it – I don’t think he would take any offence to it if I did post something different to what he had posted (just my gut feeling on that BUT unless tony himself tells me otherwise, I really don’t know if that is the case or not).
So, that’s the reason for my hesitation in posting such things Hurk – but thank you just the same for your thoughts on that – I do appreciate it
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 5:26 pm
Hi sky,
post 173:
Thank you so much for that sky
i do appreciate you sharing your thoughts on that with me 
I’m glad too that it does help when I do post such things on the markets etc. – so, thank you for letting me know sky 
Yes the SINA weekly trade is REALLY interesting!! SOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO much money to be made on that strategy IF one can employ it
I know I’ll be keeping an eye on it weekly myself – to see if it continues to play out as it has 
Thanks sky
Congrats on your CSTR trade – I saw last night when they announced what they did (at just after 4 pm EST) – the stock was halted in after hours until 430 PM EST – when it opened again, it went to a high of just over $71 (a $10+ gain from its closing price of yesterday). I thought at the time, “WOW!! How great for the people that own this thing!” – so, way to go with that sky
eve
April 13th, 2012 at 5:27 pm
Sky,
re.#157 & #170
Thanks for the compliments.
CSTR – I had on my watch list but since I’m not able to follow those individual stories, kind of fell out of my scope. Glad it worked out very well for you today & couldn’t agree more with you on taking profits on such a huge spike and waiting for next entry point.
.
Eve,
re.#169
I do look at USD/CAD cross or FXC very closely although for a different reason.
For example, if I have a position in ECA/POT/TCK etc. here in TSX, but since they trade much heavily in US the TSX prices will simply follow those US movements and therefore before the markets and during volatile currency day it needs to be kept in mind. Therefore I hate to do tech. analysis on such equities listed on TSX; better to look at their US counterpart instead.
The other picture I take is a mid-long term of CAD/USD cross as it shows the money flow into the country & thus, can give indication about country’s GDP/growth/future market behaviour etc. Those funds that piled into CAD $ hoping for world economic expansion (over past many months) are slowly pulling out and this also causes -ve effect on to the TSX in general. Not saying these forex flows are also not used for acquisitions & the real estate purchases. Same goes with AUD. But that’s more levered onto Chinese growth as opposed to us (CAD) more levered to US growth & expansion.
EUR, JPY & USD (EUR/USD & USD/JPY) are prominent financiers (or if I may say, currency printers in other words) in the world and their money movements can lead us to the next move. So watching their currency movements in relation to other economies like CAD, AUD, BRL, INR, CHF, SGD can give further signals on respective economies and what they consume or serve.
Thanks for your comments.
Good night all!
April 13th, 2012 at 5:34 pm
Eve- 179- Yeah I do hear ya on that. Sometimes (alot of times) the written word can come off BAD. Face to face can often be better and I think it is because it is hard to put emotion and personality into writing. People see what they want with the written word. I have fell into this many times. Office e-mail SUCKS.
April 13th, 2012 at 5:35 pm
Rol lew,
re SINA:
Here are 2 posts from this afternoon on the yahoo finance market pulse for it (re calls and puts today and this week):
1) $SINA @yordy16 @Dlerch all the 65 calls this week and the 75 calls last week, expire pretty much worthless. Must be nice
2) $SINA congratulations once again manipulators, the calls and puts expire worthless 64 right on the dot.
See Rol – closed right at $64 EVEN – how is THAT for PURE manipulation
although, there is no strike price at $64, so, I’m a little confused as to how closing right at $64 causes pain to the calls and puts – AND, at what strike price is the pain caused?? at $62.50?? or at $65?? – at $65 for sure for people who bought calls for $65 and sold puts at $65 – but for the $62.50 strike price, these people would be winners – right?? if they had done the strategy of selling puts at $62.50 AND buying calls at $62.50 when the stock was trading at $60 on Tuesday – isn’t that right Rol??
thanks Rol
This is fun 
It helps me learn A LOT about how manipulation is taking place with the calls and puts and the stock’s price for a stock that has weekly options expiration 
I like it 
i hope you do too Rol 
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 5:44 pm
gmsa,
Oh I know that re the interlisted stocks – I’ve written a strategy (on here) several times (in the past 2 yrs) in how to trade the interlisted stocks in conjunction with what the Cdn dollar is doing on that day
Yes, I look at the US listed interlisted stocks to know what the Cdn counterpart is doing – but I can easily do a TA analysis on either the US OR the Cdn interlisted stock as the TA in most cases is very similar – so, there’s not a lot of deviation in it (WHEN our Cdn dollar is close to par I mean – if there’s like a 30 cent difference, then that would change the TA for sure!! but for these days, in the past 2 yrs or so, TA is almost the same for the interlisted stocks – due to the Cdn dollar being close to par – so, I have no issue in using TA for either market for an interlisted stock 
See, you’re using several currencies to do your analysis – and that’s the best way to do it as you capture ALL angles!! I’m only using the Cdn dollar as the proxy of knowing where the markets will go next – and that works for me just fine
thanks gmsa for further clarification for me
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 5:48 pm
hurk,
i totally hear ya there too!! I prefer speaking with people in person for that very reason!! I will often sound very matter of fact (I think anyway) in my emails or posts such that “at times”, people “assume” I’m angry – when that it not at all the case!! It’s just that I can’t give my tone of voice or inflection, in an email or post so that people know how I’m actually “sounding” when I’m writing what I am
That’s why I put so many smiles in my posts actually – so, I don’t sound as matter of fact as I think I so often do 
Thanks hurk
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 5:58 pm
gmsa and sky,
I always check reporting and what the forecast numbers are. Tech Talk always publishes these on the Monday report for the week.
On April 2, 2012 Tech Talk stated:
“March Non-farm Payrolls to be released at 8:30 AM EDT on Friday are expected to fall to 200,000 from 227,000 in February. Private Payrolls are expected are expected to fall to 215,000 from 233,000 in February. The March Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at 8.3%. March Hourly Earnings are expected to increase 0.1% versus a gain of 0.1% in February.”
Markets fell after the numbers were reported, on Monday, April 9th, 2012.
Also looking at this seasonal chart:
http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/01/image.png
Also, just wanted to give everyone a “heads up” on what was coming up for Monday. It is hard to disregard this fundamental information regarding the general economy.
I agree with Ray-Kitchener, the “rumour” number was to get some retail buyers in the market, to buy the institutional positions.
April 13th, 2012 at 6:00 pm
Ever since I got back from Cancun I’ve been thinking that I’d like to take a leave of absence from work from May to September to relax and learn more about trading.. perhaps take some courses, reread various posts on this board from the last year or so. I just feel so burnt out and disinterested in my job currently. I suppose I need to run some numbers and see if I can pull it off. If (when!) my HGU comes back I should be able to do it no problem. Perhaps I can spend a month in Europe or Miami.. just sick and tired of the corporate race and long hours between my job and my personal investment efforts. Perhaps I can make more money doing this full-time? Hmm.. any thoughts or advice from others would be much appreciated
April 13th, 2012 at 6:05 pm
mick, I already have a short position in lulu.. Good to hear that you feel it was a good decision this time around.
April 13th, 2012 at 6:06 pm
#158
tony,
AAPL finally closed today, in after hour trading at 604.29 down -0.94 (-0.16%).
April 13th, 2012 at 6:12 pm
Slava
I think your feeling is normal once you have come back from a place where you just relaxed and enjoyed the suroundings. Don’t be in a hurry to leave a good paying job unless you have another one lined up. I think it is tough to make a living off trading , maybe the traders such as wayne or ray-kit can advise better
April 13th, 2012 at 6:23 pm
mick, I wasn’t thinking of quitting, just taking a sabbatical for four months.. after that I can reassess the situation. Perhaps I can leave the dreaded Yaletown condo and rent a floor of the house in North Van (Deep Cove would be great in the summer).. Hmm.. I feel I need a major change.
April 13th, 2012 at 6:33 pm
Slava
Sorry, misread your post. If you can afford a leave of some sort then go for it. It would also be nice to have you as a neighbor. Lots for you to think about this weekend.
April 13th, 2012 at 6:34 pm
Slava,
I wrote a response to your question on FCX – its post 178.
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 6:47 pm
Hey Eve, thank you for 178.. I somehow missed it earlier – just read it now
This may sound like a stupid question, but how did you add those price figures on the chart? (I think those are pivot prices, right?) Thanks again.
April 13th, 2012 at 6:55 pm
Slava,
No, they’re not pivot points – they are prices of high price points, low price points, or significant price points – they’re determined by stockcharts as to which price points they want to point out. You can add them to your chart by ticking off the box of “price labels” (to the right of “volume” under “chart attributes” section).
Pivot points on a chart looks like this:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCX&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p81726173644
The pivot prices are showing on the right side of the chart – and the price points are still showing on the chart itself.
In my first chart I sent you, I have the bollinger band AND keltner on the chart. On this chart, I have pivot points showing instead of the bollingers.
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 7:16 pm
Slava,
What you are suggesting is a sure recipe for disaster. I can’t put it any clearer than that. You trade with a gambler’s instinct, with all the pitfalls that gambling entails. We talked about this last fall, when I suggested that you slowly extracate yourself from this activity. If you choose to take the course you are considering, you will most certainly experience a physical, emotional and financial breakdown. I honestly feel that this activity is not for you, especially considering the damage you have suffered so far.
Your “job” is the key to your future prosperity. It probably doesn’t occur to you now, but full time employment with benefits, and a company pension is a dream that eludes many at this time in our history. I constantly wonder how you can manage to maintain this distraction while working. For anybody else on this board, who is employed – the threat of dismisal is a real one – why add to the threat? Later on in your life, you will realize how important a company pension is to mainatain your standard of living.
A “trader” is a lonely occupation. We try to reach out to others – express our frustrations, try to share our successes so that we can help others to overcome the inevitable disapointmenrs that come our way. And there’s the companionship that we can share – Ron and I have been corresponding for over 10 years now – we constantly “nudge” each other and share a rant or two about those dumb markets! LOL
A better route would be to take a “leaf” from cannuck2004′s book. Time is still on your side. Good dividend paying stocks with good growth prospects will ensure a secure and better future. Compounding is the most valuable feature of any portfolio. Don’t take my word for it – ask him!
Lastly, I think that your “Magnificent Michael” is trying to tell you something. Trading has become an obsession – an addiction. He has already pointed this out to you on many occasions – I would suggest that you accept his advice. If you have a future with him, I’m sure that you will need to go “cold turkey” and extract yourself from this. You can only have one real passion at a time – I would recommend that he be the one to satisfy this need. My money’s on him to fulfill this role in your life.
We all love you here on this board. But, we also know that if you continue, it will lead to the dark side of things. I have known several traders who have come to this point, who have lost wives, houses and their sanity – never to return. None of us ever want to see that happen to you!
Well…nuff said.
Best!
April 13th, 2012 at 8:04 pm
NTR
Wayne,
What form of art does your partner work on, beside the screen writing?
Ron/AB
I have had the pleasure to be able to watch Decidedly Jazz Danceworks when they perform at the Arden. Do you have a child performing with the company?
April 13th, 2012 at 8:22 pm
Wayne and Slava,
Ouch, that note to Slava was a little harsh but perhaps necessary.
Slava, I would like to suggest, that you start with a list of rules for yourself in regard to trading.
Maybe that would be the beginning of discipline in the market. It is all about discipline.
April 13th, 2012 at 8:38 pm
Few weeks or months ago , Slava mention that she is making a lot of money trading . If she is making more than a regular job , why not ?
And she is happy too .
April 13th, 2012 at 8:58 pm
Wayne, Ana, Rick – thanks for your input. It’s great to be able to read various opinions.
Wayne, I think back when you worked full-time in a corporate world things were very different. These days companies have huge expectations, huge targets, everything is cut throat and super stressful. Most companies are cutting back on benefits and eliminating defined benefit pension plans.. also pay has not kept up with inflation. Working for most large companies is more stressful than trading, I can attest to that. So much micromanagement, etc. And there is so little quality of life for not that much money (after all the taxes and deductions). It’s like a rat race which takes over your life.. getting ready for work, commuting to work, working, going back home.. working from home, etc. So it’s not all that rosy on this side.
I do agree that I still make some mistakes and lack knowledge and discipline to do this full-time but like Rick said besides CMG short and HGU long position I’ve done very well in 2012. 2011 was not a good year since I purchased a lot of juniors which crashed.. I no longer buy juniors unless it’s a very small $ amount. Perhaps if I had free time I could actually read books on trading and take courses.. I can’t do it now since I have so little time.
As for the “Magnificent Michael”, well, men come and go so I don’t think I’m prepared to change myself for a man… perhaps the right one hasn’t come along yet?
April 13th, 2012 at 9:12 pm
NTR Great Lionel Richie special on CBS right now…. HellOOO, I always loved his music. H
April 13th, 2012 at 9:28 pm
Hi Ana,
thanks for that excellent chart showing the election year.
RE: Discipline –
Funny that you were just writing about discipline, I was just reviewing my risk reward and money management rules today. I agree wholeheartedly with the importance you write of.
For me, this was/is the hardest aspect of trading – I had to learn the hard way as so many have before me.
There was a time that I mostly ignored this area to my account’s peril. A friend of mine did what Wayne wrote about and he ended up 6 figures in debt from losses on trading. It caused a terrible rift in the relationship and he is still paying for the debt.
Rules, money management, risk reward ratios! = yes yes yes
April 13th, 2012 at 9:28 pm
NTR
Hi Ana,
My wife and I have no kids. The company she works for is a major sponsor of DJD and we get tickets to all the shows. Sometimes we like to go to the dress rehersals instead of opening night. We see the shows at the Theatre Junction Grand which is a wonderful restored historic building and has a great lounge. Thursday dress rehersals are nice because you can enjoy a drink in the lounge without it being too packed. This current show is called Spontaneous Combustion and Jackie Richardson is a guest singer (one of Canada foremost blues/jazz artists). Have a great weekend. Best.
April 13th, 2012 at 9:33 pm
Hi Slava,
Here is a point and figure chart which I was planning to post few days ago but did not. It said price objective of GDX is $46 but I didn’t beleive it and it got there. I don’t know how PnF works but it was right on money for Gdx at $46.so we hopefully see better days ahead for goldies. May canuck2004 can tell more about it.
Kam
http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=Gdx,PLUADANRBOPADF1!3!.5!!2!20&pref=G
Ps
NTR
I am going to nucks game with my son. Hope they win
April 13th, 2012 at 10:03 pm
Hi Kam , I don’t know PnF works but that price objective on the chart does not works always .
Just look at : http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=$gold,PLTADANRBOPADF1!3!!!2!20&pref=G
and look at this too : http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.pnf?chart=gld,PLTADANRBOPADF1!3!!!2!20&pref=G
$gold price objective 1550
gld price objective 224 ?
Maybe I am missing something here .
April 13th, 2012 at 10:18 pm
Ana,
She paints watercolours and oils. Portraits – landscapes – that sort of thing.
Slava,
I hear you. My pension was eliminated when the first trust company I worked for was bought out by a bank. They refused responsibility for existing pensions.
Yes, I know that work is a lot different now – a different world from the one I left.
If you ARE determined to proceed with this plan – you might want to hire a trading coach to get you on the right track. Adrienne Toghraie might be able to help you.
Kam,
I have been using P & F charts for years. I chart daily changes – but I have “tweaked” it for better results. I don’t pay much attention to targets – it provides excellent displays of S/R levels – and trends.
The key is the box size and reversal parameters.
April 13th, 2012 at 10:50 pm
Snif Snif
Eve you are totally right… I was hoping Pot at 60 it was more then doable.
especially after a stock split 3:1 and price was worth 60$ after the stock split.
If you compare in the same time frame tnh and pot
by the end of december tnh was up about 38% and now its up 243%
as for Pot by the of dec up 12.8% and now up only 6.8% what a crock
but for TCK yes I was rooting for 50$ but as time went by how often did I change my mind.
There is a french saying: “seulement les fous ne change pas d’idée” in english it means only lunatics don’t change their mind.
So I think I am half lunatic half lucid.
April 13th, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Eve
I forgot to mention in previous post ,
TCK is a portfolio killer in the month of January. and I am almost sure I have mentionned way back then.
April 13th, 2012 at 11:08 pm
Eve
Tck
here is how this one behaves starting in january before it turns around
Jan ’08 was exceptional as it started its downward spiral in october of 07
Jan ’09- 7.27 to 2.54 then we all know what happened.
Jan ’10- 40 to 29
Jan ’11- 64 to 47
Jan ’12- 43 to 33
April 13th, 2012 at 11:12 pm
Hi tony,
re 208:
No, i don’t recall you saying that about TCK – I do recall though that call of $50 for April
I think that it’s best to only look at options for the month that we’re in – as things can change every month, every week, and every day. So, when you’re looking at options of 2 months forward and giving a price of where the stock is going to based on those options from 2 months from now, then I think that is dangerous as things can change within 1 week – let alone 2 months forward. So, I think maybe just look at the current month of options to see where a stock’s price is going to – that would give you the best info (in my opinion) of knowing where a stock might go to in price (within the month) – and just take things month by month (or week by week for those stocks that have weekly options expiration). Just my suggestion tony
No need for “sniff sniff”
we ALL get things wrong at times 
just normal (from a probabilities standpoint 
).
Thanks tony
Eve
April 13th, 2012 at 11:26 pm
Hi tony,
re post 209:
What do you mean by “before it turns around”? In 2011, it started going down in January until March – then bounced up for a bit into April (for 2 weeks or so) and then down again it went – until mid May – then had a bit of a bounce (for 2 weeks) and then back down again til mid June – then up for 4 weeks that time!! Then down again…
This year, it went up the entire month of January and hit its high – then has come down ever since (with small bounces up here and there).
So, what did you mean by that?? because it seems that it just basically goes down after January – with little bounces up here and there for several months until its seasonal period starts again in the Fall.
Eve
April 14th, 2012 at 12:02 am
Eve
The comment where you mentioned my name… think it was posted to hurk I really don’t mind as I have said sometimes we miss something that was more then obvious but we try so hard that the simple things are missed(CNQ this morning I was suppose to buy it but after revision I saw that it hasn’t been able to break above 18MA so no use to try to out smart HFs as they own most of the companies even though they are actually ours as their money is (or should I say was) our money.
210
Yes I agree with you that in this world there is uncertainty that we can not control
such as natural disasters or technical glitches or new shares issuance and so on… but in most cases (and most of us have to work) a longer term perspective will help out if nothing “bad happens”
playing options one month at a time is good if you are only playing the US companies as they are more volatile then canadian companies and more option trades on the CBOE.
Companies that trade on Canadian side barely make a dent on the options even on the cboe.
If you are a daytrader you must be nimble and options there is no mercy in them one day up one day down and so on. so looking forward for daily options for current month it expires to fast and if you are trying to gain 50% because thats what they are trading you are out of luck as strike 50% higher with prices in the pennies or dimes an increase of 10 cents could almost make you 30% if not more while the company barely moved by 5%.
What I mean by turn around is when it reaches its trof of its down trend.
if you look at the prices I posted except for 2012 as it still has not confirmed it reached its low for this current down trend.
but for the rest of the past Januaries it did turnaround doesn’t recoup all the money but got some back.
in 2011 went from 64 to 47 back to 58 before stumbling lower. before reaching 25$ in october.
April 14th, 2012 at 12:21 am
Eve.
If I am not mistaken I think rachel could maybe answer this one.
Rachel Are you there…
its been a while you haven’t asked me what were my toughts on google, Apple and so on
I think you have asked me in the past about tck can you refresh my memory on it pls.
April 14th, 2012 at 12:23 am
Tony,
re my message to Hurk – ok, thanks for confirming my gut instinct on that
i appreciate it 
re options for Cdn stocks:
we were discussing POT and TCK – yes, these are both Cdn companies BUT they are traded in the U.S. too – and it’s the U.S. that determines the stocks price. I was only commenting on the comment you had made in Feb on TCK – saying that in April, it should get to $50 due to the options telling you that! So, that’s why I said that looking at 2 months forward and trying to determine where the stock’s price will go by then may not be the best strategy due to things changing every week – let alone in 2 months from now.
And I wasn’t meaning trading options – I was meaning looking at the options strike prices to get a good idea of where the price may go to in price – just as you did with TCK in Feb by looking at April options expiration. So, I was meaning trading the stock itself and looking at the options just to determine where the price may go to in any given month.
re TCK:
when you say this:
What I mean by turn around is when it reaches its trof of its down trend.
if you look at the prices I posted except for 2012 as it still has not confirmed it reached its low for this current down trend.
TCK has been in a downtrend hun for over a year now LOL! (on the WEEKLY chart). So, there’s not been a time yet in over a year of when TCK has been in an uptrend (it went into a short term uptrend from the lows of October to January – on the daily chart – and has been in a downtrend on the DAILY chart since around Feb 8th) – it only gets to a low in price every month or so and then bounces up from there – then back down again and then up again and repeat. But it’s still in a downtrend
Eve
April 14th, 2012 at 12:35 am
tony,
not sure what you’re wanting Rachel to post on here BUT if it’s about your correct calls on GOOG and AAPL – don’t worry about it!! I know you made correct calls on those (I saw the posts you did on them) – it isn’t a big deal re getting those other 3 wrong – honestly, it happens to all of us – so, no need to think anymore about it! Really
You correctly called SINA going to $77.50 in February (it went to $77.80 and then came down after that) – you made that call by looking at the options. You also called the bottom in the markets in October – on the VERY day it happened!! So, don’t worry about the misses here and there as it happens to ALL of us – ok??
It’s all good tony
Eve
April 14th, 2012 at 12:57 am
Eve
I don’t totally agree with you the fact that coz a company trades on both sides of the border that options will reflect the same thing necessarily in price change.
ex Scotia Bank or BNS at the end of Jan of this year they issued new shares prior to this M-X showed options trading at the 50$ strike price on the cboe there was some option but didn’t even show up at this price. and once they issued the new shares the price dropped to 50.60$ before picking up again.
on the CBOE you will most often see canadian companies that they are willing to drive up or down like rimm, SU, CNQ but only if the US investors feel the urge to move into a company otherwise it will go undetected
April 14th, 2012 at 12:59 am
Eve
Trends can last as long as your time frame is setup to be do we agree with this.
If you had played tck on a 60min chart the move from 47 to 58 is one nice uptrend.
if you look at it on a monthly chart well thats just a bump on the road.
April 14th, 2012 at 1:04 am
Eve
I was calling upon rachel’s memory because she had asked about TCK a few times but don’t recall what was my last opinion as I don’t write everything down.
April 14th, 2012 at 1:08 am
Eve
Tell me know that you have been discussing Options with Rol… how are you analyzing Sina?
I missed the last part of that conversation when I pitched this one to you… I know you are not trading options but what technique are you using to analyze it.
April 14th, 2012 at 10:28 am
MUST WATCH:
Bill Carrigan
Technical Analyst, Getting Technical Info Services
http://www.bnn.ca/Shows/Market-Call-Tonight.aspx
April 14th, 2012 at 10:46 am
KC,
I am still waiting for the market to trend up.
GOLD ETFs: CEF.A.TO, CGL.TO
Silver: SLW.TO, FR.TO
GOLD: This is very tricky one and I’m keep watching insiders’ transactions.
My plan is to buy a couple juniors and a couple bigger ones.
April 14th, 2012 at 11:29 am
If you want to learn how to trade more effectively….and make money more often…watch Bill…. but don’t always buy his picks, do your own work.
Bill Carrigan
Technical Analyst, Getting Technical Info Services
http://www.bnn.ca/Shows/Market-Call-Tonight.aspx
I like ECA in here IF IT HOLDS AT 17.25 to form a bullish double bottom, it it goes lower, GET OUT as it will most likely go to single digit.
April 14th, 2012 at 1:13 pm
Hi Eve,
#46
Please post your insights and finding, I know that it will help me and others as well.
Have a great week-end, Ania
April 14th, 2012 at 1:45 pm
Natural gas bottom nowhere in sight
Brady Yauch, BNN.ca staff
1:40 PM, E.T. | April 13, 2012
Best of BNN, Energy & Resources
Tags: Natural Gas
With natural gas prices hitting the lowest level in nearly a decade — as low as $1.51 in Canada and $1.98 US in New York — many analysts and commentators say prices have more room to fall. The price of natural gas in New York has already fallen 34 percent this year.
“I don’t see a bottom here in the near-term,” Kevin Craney, senior commodities broker at RJO Futures, tells BNN.
Craney, like many others, says the industry is facing a standard economic problem: too much supply and too little demand.
“The big risk for the immediate term is, is there going to be a price shock — where these caverns fill up so quickly that there’s nowhere else to store this gas, so you’re dumping it on the cash market. You could see the market collapse down to all time lows — that’s a real threat,” he says.
And when could producers run out of storage capacity? Soon, some analysts warn. On Thursday, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said gas storage is currently 880 billion cubic feet higher than at the same time last year.
At those levels, the amount of natural gas in storage is already 55 percent higher than it was last year and 59 percent higher than the five-year average.
Tim Simard, managing director at NBC Commodities, tells BNN that producers are facing significantly less storage capacity then they had last year.
“So [producers] can’t store the gas and demand isn’t picking up fast enough to take up the gas that we have,” says Simard.
He says producers only have a couple of options. They can stop drilling all together, try and shift their production to liquid natural gas, which sells at a higher prices, or they can shut in production at wells they have already drilled.
“But unfortunately [shutting in gas] creates a nice storage overhang…and once gas prices recover, that inventory comes back onto the market and undercuts a full price recovery,” he says.
FRACKING CHANGES EVERYTHING
Those storage problems stem from a recent structural change that has taken place in the industry. A technique known as fracking — a process where chemically-treated water is shot deep underground at rock and shale formations holding natural gas — has opened up massive new reserves of the commodity.
“Certainly the fracking of gas has completely changed the entire industry,” Craney says. He adds that the massive new reserves made possible by fracking have dramatically altered traditional metrics, such as ratio of oil to natural gas prices, used by many investors to predict future prices.
“That ratio [between oil and natural gas prices] is something you can’t even pay attention to anymore, because structurally the natural gas market has changed so much with the introduction of fracking that you have an entirely new supply that was not available to you years ago,” he says.
Just last decade natural gas import facilities were being built around the continent to handle what was expected to be strong demand for imports.
One solution to the glut of natural gas has been to turn North America into an exporter, with Asia and its roaring economies the most talked about destination. Natural gas prices outside of North America have touched as high as $16 US.
And while many analysts believe that terminals on the west coast of North America will eventually begin selling natural gas into overseas markets, time is working against producers.
“We may not have the gas around at that time if we stop putting capital into production,” Glenn MacNeill, managing director at Bennington Investment Management, tells BNN. “The commodity disappears fairly quickly if you take capital away and put it in other places, which clearly the oil patch has been doing for the past year and will be doing even more so over the next year.”
Many analysts say that all of these factors combined could trigger a further stretch of low prices.
“Even if we were close to a bottom in natural gas prices, the price recovery will likely be drawn-out and shallow,” Bank of America analysts said recently in a note to clients. “Thus, we continue to stick to our view of an extended period of low natural gas prices.”
Analysts at Goldman Sachs also recently predicted “sustained depressed prices” for natural gas.
April 14th, 2012 at 2:02 pm
“If we were always to wait for the most favorable combination of circumstances, no enterprise would ever be undertaken. There can be no end without a beginning–there was never an enterprise in which everything fitted in perfectly, for chance plays a leading part in the affairs of all men. Obedience to rule does not ensure success, but success, on the other hand, furnishes a canon — a rule of conduct –Napoleon Bonaparte.
April 14th, 2012 at 2:04 pm
“One of the great evils of trading is false exactness…Trading is a fuzzy process and I mean fuzzy in the best sense of the word. That is, as in fuzzy logic, as in the willingness to accept the idea that things aren’t exactly quantifiable and to forge ahead anyway” –John Bollinger (creator of the Bollinger Bands)
April 14th, 2012 at 6:16 pm
gmsa,
CIG was featured in the Investors Business Daily on Friday – pg B4. Worth a read.
April 14th, 2012 at 8:07 pm
Slava, For whats it’s worth, I’ve had the privilege of working with the “best of the best,” as a supplier, designer, manufacturer, and customer. Some of these guys and gals dabbled in the market. Stock trading usually took second or third place. It was a toss up between family and corp of who had first.
b
April 14th, 2012 at 9:36 pm
Rebalancing or …. market timing. Matket timing = rebalancing ?.
http://www.thestar.com/business/article/1161385–market-timing-is-always-a-bad-idea-rebalance-instead
April 14th, 2012 at 10:29 pm
http://www.streetsmartpost.com/
April 15th, 2012 at 12:21 am
Rick,
i saw those too before writing about P&F chart on GDX .Even abx has PO of $35 or so.What I found out is that it stays on same price objective until that ascending or descending line at 45 degree is hit and then PO changes.I wasn’t trying to say that I know it but just talking about the price gdx hit.
April 15th, 2012 at 12:52 am
Hi Wayne,
That parameters I used were ‘user defined’(0.5 pts per box) as i saw chart school using that parameters. Do you use different ones or If I may ask which ones you use?
i am trying to learn this P&G system.
kam
ps-I just changed parameters to % and it shows GDX PO as $41.36! lost??
April 15th, 2012 at 1:23 am
Eve,
Which website do you watch market futures on? Or are they also available through Stockcharts membership?
KC
April 15th, 2012 at 1:38 am
Hey Rami,
Do you by any chance work for Wells Fargo ?
KC
April 15th, 2012 at 10:20 am
KC
if you mean rami/ab he’s a pharmacist
April 15th, 2012 at 10:25 am
www dot finviz dot com
Futures ALL
Charts
5 Minute, Hourly, Daily, Weekly
**************************************
The finviz screeners are pretty good also,
for “finding” ideas
April 15th, 2012 at 10:47 am
major indices futures… I use that daily, that’s all I need.
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/
April 15th, 2012 at 11:57 am
Kam,
I use 15 pt boxes for the indexes – with a 3 box reversal. For higher priced stocks (over $ 20.00) – you need to use a higher box number – otherwise you will get whipsawed – just play with them – S/R levels are quite clear for whatever # you use. Just stay with one number and you will get to know how they work.
I don’t put much faith in the target #’s. I keep an eye on them – just in case.
April 15th, 2012 at 12:15 pm
Point and figure chart
The technique is over 100 years old. “Hoyle” was the first to write about it and showed charts in his 1898 book, The Game in Wall Street.[1] Richard Wyckoff also described the technique with charts in his 1910 classic, Studies in Tape Reading. The first book/manual dedicated to Point and Figure was written by Victor Devilliers in 1933. Chartcraft Inc, in the USA, popularized the system in the 1940s. Cohen founded Chartcraft and wrote on point and figure charting in 1947. Chartcraft published further pioneering books on P&F charting, namely those by Burke, Aby and Zieg. Chartcraft Inc is still running today, providing daily point and figure services for the US market under the name of Investors Intelligence. Veteran Mike Burke still works for Chartcraft, having started back in 1962 under the guidance of Cohen. Burke went on to train other point and figure gurus, such as Thomas Dorsey who would go on to write authoritative texts on the subject.
April 15th, 2012 at 1:01 pm
NTR:
Just quickly stopping by to post the following note that I recd. from someone who works in London’s Financial District with Barclays Bank PLC.
Worth a read for all of us who chase money & profits.
Subject: Has water entered my ship?
In 1923, eight of the wealthiest people in the world met.
Their combined wealth, it is estimated, exceeded the wealth of the government of the United States at that time.
These men certainly knew how to make a living and accumulate wealth.
But let’s examine what happened to them 25 years later.
1. President of the largest steel company, Charies Schwab, lived on borrowed capital for Five years before he died bankrupt.
2. President of the largest gas company, Howard Hubson, went insane.
3. One of the greatest commodity traders, Arthur Cutton, died insolvent.
4. President of the New York Stock Exchange, Richard Whitney, was sent to jail.
5. A member of the President’s Cabinet, Albert Fall, was pardoned from jail to go home and die in peace.
6. The greatest “bear” on Wall Street, Jessie Livermore committed suicide.
7. President of the world’s greatest monopoly, Ivar Krueger, committed suicide.
8. President of the Bank of International Settlement, Leon Fraser, Committed Suicide.
What they forgot was how to make life! Money in itself is not evil!
Money provides food for the hungry, medicine for the sick, Clothes for the needy; Money is only a medium of exchange.
We need two kinds of education:
a) One that teaches us how to make a living & ….
b) One that teaches us how to live.
There are people who are so engrossed in their professional life that they neglect their family, health and social responsibilities.
If asked why they do this they would reply that they were doing it for their family. Our kids are sleeping when we leave home. They are sleeping when we come home. Twenty years later, we’ll turn back, and they’ll all be gone.
Without water, a ship cannot move. The ship needs water, but if the water gets into the ship, the ship will face problems. What was once a
means of living for the ship will now become a means of destruction?
So take a moment and ask yourself ……….
Has water entered my ship?
April 15th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Ana,
re.#186
I agree with you that fundamentals come first and then comes the trends/technicals.
What I was stating essentially in earlier remarks was simply that it’s easy at times to get bogged down by the economic release nos. & seasonal adjustments of the same & Q over Q or Year over year comparisons, and can get distracted from trading thesis.
Markets often gives damn to these many releases that come out daily as it has ‘perceived’ certain things already & won’t trust/believe the #s or withing few mins. after the realease will focus onto something else ignoring the data release.
That’s all.
Good day.
April 15th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
Wayne,
re.#227
thx for furhter info. on CIG. Cheers!
April 15th, 2012 at 1:28 pm
canuck2004,
I read Devilliers’ book a long time ago. I bought Tom Dorsey’s book back in 2000 and it is a “go to” reference that I keep close at hand.
The main advantage of P & F is that it eliminates the daily noise. Time is not a factor in P & F. It clearly illustrates S/R levels and turns in the market.
Several years ago I spent a couple of months back testing the Gold and S& P charts all the way back to the 1950′s and came up with an improved analysis of the dynamics of the chart that illustrated the momentum and strength of sudden moves – and how a trader could take advantage of them. I added a feature that was able to pin point drawdowns and reversal patterns within the formation of a developing trend. Application of discipline and strict money management could keep a trader in the trend until it approached exhaustion points.
I gave a very brief description of this strategy on a futures blog shortly after I had back tested the results, and a trader contacted me. He bought the system and is currently trading it. So, it is now proprietary.
But, there is so much more information that P & F charts can convey to those who know how to interpret them.
Best!
April 15th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
#243 Wayne
I use P&F charts daily on Stockcharts. IMO the targets shown are “potential” targets if the trend continues as current… Bill Carrigan says to only use the “Average True Range” P&F chart on Stockchart.
I have read and own Richard Wyckoff 1910 classic, “Studies in Tape Reading”, and his “Stock Market Technique; number one”, and am currently finishing up his “Stock Market Technique; number two”… the others mentioned I haven’t read yet.
I do own quite a collection of vintage trading books, and it doesn’t matter how old they are, the story is always the same….lol…Greed and Fear rules the speculator’s heart as we are all human and tend to always do the same thing. There is a website out there where one can buy these quite cheaply.
One thing I did find out a few days ago, Buffets’ line: “put all you eggs in one basket and watch it very carefully” or words to that effect he got from Andrew Carnegie who said it first…haha.
Have a great day…..
April 15th, 2012 at 2:21 pm
cannuck20004,
ATR measure volatility – there are times when a market is not so volatile – the ATR can skew your data points – the lag time can drag on for several sessions before reverting to the mean. So, I often use the ATR readings and compare them to the default settings. Gives you a “heads up” on reversion.
I have a couple of Wyckoff’s books around here somewhere – he has a good sense of humour!
Love that story about the Sage of Omaha stealing a line from Carnegie. Doesn’t surprise me one bit. Did you happen to catch the profile of Buffet on “60 Minutes” several weeks ago?? Buffet will be the first to tell you that he’s made a couple of dynamite trades that blew up – I respect his honesty.
Reminds me of a better trader that I have had the chance to meet – Mark Cook. He is a farmer who still farms in Ohio. I have never met a more down to earth guy who tells you everything you need to know about trading.
My ex was playing in Wooster Ohio – performing with the Ohio Light Opera Company – I drove to East Sparta – up to the farm – found him trading – he invited me in and we spent several hours together. I helped him off load bags of seed after we finished trading. But – an AMAZING trader – and WELL respected by his peers!!!
Best!
April 15th, 2012 at 3:20 pm
#245-Wayne…
Carnegie’s line was quoted by the Wyckoff I’m just finishing…lol…and then I researched Carnegie’s line to see if it was true…yep.
Not all trades work out for anybody, that’s the thing to keep in mind… losing money is all part of the game… nobody is perfect…. and it’s impossible to be perfect in trading…. limiting losses is the key to survival.
Don’t know about Mark Cook but keeping away from Wall Street daily noise is the best way to keep objective, don’t have to spend all day looking at the market to make money….lol.
Have a great day… nice and sunny here, cut the grass yesterday, more work to do around the house.
April 15th, 2012 at 3:26 pm
@ WLM #229
Thanks for linking to “The Star” article.
I own a few shares of BMO Junior Gas Index ETF (ZJN) mentioned in the article – bought them mainly to incentivise myself to keep track of it. Extremely thin trader; sometimes only couple hundred shares per day, if any at all. I wonder what BMO is going to do with some of these thin ETFs if they don’t catch on? – consolidate with another fund? I dunno.
Speaking of thin traders: Aston Hill Senior Gold Producers Income Corp. (GPC) is a closed-end fund trading at about 6% premium to Net Asset Value. The $0.063 monthly dividend yields over 10%. Virtually all of the 2011 distribution was in the form of Return of Capital (ROC).
Aston Hill home: http://www.astonhill.ca/
April 15th, 2012 at 3:39 pm
LOL.
Reminds me of a story I read about this fund manager who was interviewed by a Japanese group who were considering an investment in his firm. Everthing was fine until he raised the question about losses. The group responded – “we do not expect losses “. Needless to say, he refused their money. LOL
I get the feeling that you are a “value” investor. A great book to get is ” Value Investing With the Masters”, by Kirk Kazanjian. He has 20 interviews with the top value money managers in the US who have consistently beat the index. It’s a good read. If you can’t get it, I can send it to you.
Best!
April 15th, 2012 at 6:02 pm
Tony,
I am acquainted with another Rami in AB that works for Wells Fargo.
KC
April 15th, 2012 at 6:58 pm
Rol Lew,
Thanks for
“Rol Lew Says:
April 15th, 2012 at 10:25 am
www dot finviz dot com
Futures ALL
Charts
5 Minute, Hourly, Daily, Weekly………..”
April 15th, 2012 at 7:05 pm
# 248-Wayne…
Whew did some yard work now I’m pooped…
Well, I have 2 opposing philosophies for my 2 accounts.
#1-RRSP: high yield, buy and hold forever, buy value, growing yield and moderate capital appreciation…Buffet style. I may keep one or two high risk trades in there for a little oomph. Maybe 35 to 40 names total, 100% invested, 100% equities, all the time.
#2-Margin Trading, I don’t care if the name makes money or not, I don’t even care if the corp is solvent….I want positive momentum and volume…I keep a core of solid defensive yield corps with excellent margin rates, margin them to the hilt when the time comes to buy anything to trade… At times I’m at 100% casg, at times I’m 300% invested. I’ve traded Nortel one the way up and the way down, after the 10 for one reverse split, and made excellent money, RIM, small cap golds, YLO, you name it. Right now I have 4-5 somewhat aggressive names and have stops on them…the rest no stops. Maybe 20 names in total.
I’m staring at well read copies of Ben Graham’s The Intelligent Investor on my bookshelf…lol…Lynch’s Beating the Street, Berstein’s An Economist on Wall Street, Granville’s New Strategy of Daily Stock Market Trading for Maximum Profit, and dozens of others… including a new stack of vintage I haven’t read yet waiting for me….lol…the next one on my list will be The Art of Speculation by Philip Carret, 1930.
“Philip L. Carret (November 29, 1896 – May 28, 1998) was an investor and founder (in 1928) of Pioneer Fund (then: Fidelity Mutual Trust), one of the first Mutual Funds in the United States (now 3rd which exists still). A former Barron’s reporter and WWI aviator Philip Carret launched the Mutual Trust in 1928 after managing money for his friends and family. The initial effort evolved into Pioneer Investments. He ran the fund (in the meantime name was changed to Pioneer Fund) for 55 years, during which an investment of $10,000 became $8 million. Warren Buffett said of him that he had “the best long term investment record of anyone I know” He is most famous for the long successful track record he achieved investing in Common Stocks and for being one of Warren Buffett’s role models.” Wikipedia
April 15th, 2012 at 7:31 pm
FM.TO
Updated Apr. 15, 7.15 PM.
See also comments…
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/takeover-rumours-swirl-around-first-quantum/article2401622/
April 15th, 2012 at 10:34 pm
Chinese allowing it’s currency to trade in a little wider range, means the Yuan should appreciate against most currency -considering it has been artifically kept suppressed for so long. But that also signals that the heated economic growth is not taking shape in China anymore & mainly its an official acceptance by the PBC also to boost their faltering exports. Official GDP no. last week was another indicator.
Now what happens to the commodity buyers within China -and the commod. bulls/speculators around the globe?
Things get more expensive for them. Gold for investment or jewellery purpose, copper & other metals importers & end users all face the rising prices.
Take a look at this: Since the INR got hit hard aginst major currencies @ 7 months back it took a toll on the Gold prices immediately – India being the Top consumer of Gold & Silver. It has yet to recover. And then the Indian Govt. tried slamming the extra duties on the import & $Gold could not sustain its recovery.
Will this be another nail on the coffin of the commodity cycle esp. the Gold? – the one that’s 11 years old already and most people have accepted that it will only go up because of many issues that surrounds the world….just like in early 1st decade of this century people & professionals assumed that US housing prices can only go one way i.e. UP!
Chinese exports/goods will become cheaper to the outside world bringing more competetion to many nations as well.
Just my thoughts on the surprise move on Saturday by the Chinese Govt.
Any & all comments welcome.
April 15th, 2012 at 10:38 pm
cannuck2004,
I have somewhat the same mix.
1. My personal Trading account. I trade options, currencies and a few commodities. Lately, I have been trading currencies, and a couple of equity options ( I am long SPXU, short FSLR from 25).
2. My partner’s IRA account. It’s 80% dividend champions with a minimum yield of 5%. I also sell calls and puts against several of them to boost return. 20% is in corporate bonds.
3. The church account. 50% CEF with a minimum 8 – 10% yield. 25% bonds – and 25% index funds. I also do covered calls and puts in this account. I do a monthly report to the council.
All the positions are executed based on technical analysis – I use my P & F charts to gauge strength and identify entry points. All postions, except for the church account have stops in place. Dividends are taken in cash to buy additional units in other, more profitable positions. I will not hesitate to sell, and move on to other equities if the situation requires it.
Reading Michael Covel’s book “Trend Trading” again.
Also preparing for a Traders Symposium in New York City in May.
Best!
April 15th, 2012 at 11:23 pm
254-Wayne
I don’t do options, too much trouble for me….I like to keep it very simple…. as I am quite lazy. I avoid commodities and currencies, as I like equities.
I do structure my partner’s RRSP (same as IRA). It is all cash currently in one year term deposits but laddered in quarterly installments… when rates start to rise…someday…I will go longer in some of the quaterlies and subdivide them into a laddered 1,2,3,4,5 year term each quarter. I’ve done this before with great success. Structured as when a one year term comes due every quarter one reinvests into a longer maturity, so that every quarter something is always coming due, so there is always access to some of the capital… This is because I am all in equities… so I need for safety’s sake some balance….I remember that Greenspan was doing the same… he had to be 100% in cash as per his position while his wife was all in equities (I wonder if he controlled his wife’s account…and told her what to buy…lol).
I have also been the Chair of a non-profit society for over 20 years and took care of the finances. Quite difficult to find people that can read a balance sheet really… so the treasurer was actually me, but another person took the responsability. Impossible to get a good volunteer treasurer….Of course all signees were at arms’ length and it took 2 for any cheque or bank business.All on the up and up. Anyway, complicated story with large govt. grants, employees, bookkeeper, tax audits, etc. We are just winding this thing down and have given away to similar societies our considerable war chest and assets. Time for me to retire and reduce my responsibilities. I was also Vice-president of a local Community Center, with a multi-million dollar budget and a staff of over 100…. all volunteer work for me… what a sucker I have been…lol… and I sat on many other community and city community redevelopment boards… but now winding all of this down.
I only use stops on my aggressive trades.
Anyway, getting late for me… have a good one.