ShareThisPre-opening Comments for Tuesday April 17th
U.S. equity index futures are higher this morning. S&P 500 futures are up 8 points in pre-opening trade.
Index futures were virtually unchanged following release of March housing starts. Consensus was 705,000 versus an adjusted 694,000 in February. Actual was a 5.8% decline to 654,000.
The Bank of Canada maintained its benchmark lending rate at 1.0% as expected. The Bank of Canada also noted removing stimulus may be appropriate. The Bank of Canada also raised its GDP estimate for 2012 from 2.0% to 2.4%. The Canadian Dollar moved higher following release of the Bank of Canada’s statement.
Several S&P 500 companies reported higher than consensus first quarter earnings this morning including Coca Cola, Goldman Sachs, Johnson & Johnson, US Bancorp and Comerica. Coca Cola added $0.81 to $73.25, Goldman Sachs improved $0.67 to $118.40, Johnson & Johnson added $0.45 to $64.43, US Bancorp improved $0.19 to $31.35 and Comerica gained $1.84 to $32.20.
Cameco and Uranium One are expected to open higher after JP Morgan gave them a New Overweight rating.
Chubb slipped $0.50 to $70.50 after Evercore downgraded the stock from Overweight to Equal Weight.
Celestica is expected to open lower after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold.
Technical Watch
Coca Cola Co. (NYSE:KO) – $73.25 added 1.1% after reporting slightly higher than consensus first quarter earnings. The stock has a positive technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock is testing its all-time high at $74.39. The stock trades above its 20, 50 and 200 day moving averages. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has been positive since the beginning of February. Short term momentum indicators are neutral. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of May. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock at current or lower prices.
![clip_image001[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00119.png "clip_image001[1]")
The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE:KO) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image002[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image241.png "clip_image002[1]")
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) – $64.43 added 0.7% after releasing slightly better than expected first quarter earnings. The stock has a positive, but deteriorating technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock recently touched an all-time high at $66.30. Seasonal influences are positive until the end of May. The stock is trying to hold support at its 200 day moving average at $63.74. However, the stock recently fell below its 20 and 50 day moving averages, strength relative to the S&P 500 has been negative since the beginning of October and short term momentum indicators are trending down. Preferred strategy is to take profits on strength to its all-time high.
![clip_image003[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00317.png "clip_image003[1]")
Johnson & Johnson (NYSE:JNJ) Seasonal Chart
![clip_image004[1]](http://charts.equityclock.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/image226.png "clip_image004[1]")
Celestica, Inc. (NYSE:CLS;TSE:CLS) – $9.03 Cdn. is expected to open lower after Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock from Buy to Hold. The stock has a mixed technical profile. Intermediate trend is up. The stock trades above its 200 day moving average. Seasonal influences are positive. However, the stock recently fell below its 20 and 50 day moving averages, short term momentum indicators are trending lower and strength relative to the S&P 500 Index and TSX Composite Index turned negative at the beginning of March. Preferred strategy is to accumulate the stock on weakness closer to its 200 day moving average at $8.39.
![clip_image005[1]](http://www.timingthemarket.ca/techtalk/wp-content/uploads/2012/04/clip_image00514.png "clip_image005[1]")
Celestica Inc. (TSE:CLS) Seasonal Chart
Interesting Charts
Apple was a focus once again yesterday. Since reaching an all-time last week, the stock has fallen 10.0%. Strength relative to the S&P 500 Index has turned negative.
Weakness in Apple was a major reason for weakness in the NASDAQ Composite Index. Apple is the stock with the highest weighting in the Index. Weakness triggered a break by the Index below its 50 day moving average. Strength by the Index relative to the S&P 500 Index also has turned negative.
Agriculture commodities (particularly grains) remain under technical pressure. Corn and Wheat prices broke support to reach multi-month lows.
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The Financial Philosopher
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Ken Norquay, CMT |
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Partner, CastleMoore Inc. |
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The Conspiracy April 16, 2012 |
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I can understand why conspiracy theorists think the way they think. And the way they think is: there are people in high places manipulating the world’s population for their own benefit.
A recent example of their thinking was the World Trade Centre 9/11 tragedy. Rather than accept the notion that Al Qaeda, the Muslim terrorist organization, committed that crime, the conspiracy theorists chose to believe the crime was committed by George W. Bush and his right-wing conservative backers who used it as an excuse to declare war on Iraq and Afghanistan. Their motivation was the profits that the arms dealers would make: apparently arms manufacturers are part of this right-wing New World Order group.
A previous, but equally colourful conspiracy theory involved the Japanese raid on Pearl Harbor. The conspiracy theorists of that era believed that it was American right-wing conservatives who wanted the USA to join the Second World War in Asia. Somehow they set it up so the Japanese navy would be able to sneak in close enough to strike Hawaii without being detected.
In the past, it seemed that conspiracy theorists were mostly left-wing affairs that challenged the status quo. But that could be changing.
I hear that the right-wing American conservatives are the ones who have a conspiracy theory this time. They think that President Obama and his left-wing backers have rigged the stock market so that it will have a spectacular run up before the presidential election in November. They are also said to have rigged the economy so there will be many new jobs created in the next six to eight months. All this to help the President get re-elected.
Perhaps my tongue-in-cheek sarcasm is out of place, but the straight-up stock market we’ve seen lately really is an unnatural phenomenon. From low to high, the S&P 500 index has risen over 5% per month from early October to early April. It’s rising like a rocket! And just on time for President Obama to get re-elected! It must be a conspiracy!
Unfortunately, it flies in the face of two ‘correlation theories’ about the stock market. I call them correlation theories because they don’t seem to have a solid base in economic logic. The first is seasonality and the second is the decennial pattern.
My friend Don Vialoux is the Canadian champion of seasonality: the tendency of the stock market to perform better from November to April than from May to October. Don wrote a thesis on this topic when he was earning his Chartered Market Technician (CMT) designation. And here we are in April, the end of the season of strength.
The decennial pattern emerges from the observation that the first few years of the average decade tend to be weak, and the middle and last few years tend to be stronger. And here we are in 2012, a year ending in “2.” If the decennial pattern holds true for this year, the markets should decline into June or September, as they have so often in past decades.
Presidential election theories, seasonality, decennial patterns — what’s the underlying message?
The message is that the market moves up and down a lot. And there are patterns in those price fluctuations. Not one of these patterns repeats itself in exactly the same way every time, but the patterns do exist and can be observed by studying stock-price history.
The real question is: can you use them to make money in your own portfolio?
In my book, Beyond the Bull, I suggest that ordinary investors should have investment techniques. Investment techniques are plans that you put in place long before you ever invest a nickel. When and what will you buy? Under what circumstances will you sell? It’s a little like a conspiracy theory. Only, you are the conspirator. Instead of manipulating the market, you manipulate your portfolio in response to the market. Rather than focusing on people in power, we focus on ourselves. We focus on our own power and influence. Rather than being helpless victims of some grand conspiracy, our energy is channelled toward our own best interests.
To order your copy of Beyond the Bull and the Five Levels of Investor Consciousness CD, or to sign up for Ken’s free monthly webinar, visit www.gobeyondthebull.com (Bullmanship Code = SS32).
This article and others by Ken are available at http://kennorquay.blogspot.com.
Contact Ken directly at ken@castlemoore.com.
Keith Richards’ Blog
This week’s blog will look at a number of factors that may test the mettle of the stock markets, including a myriad of earnings reports, ongoing concerns in Europe, and some important technical support levels. Visit www.smartbounce.ca to read the report.
Special Free Services available through www.equityclock.com
Equityclock.com is offering free access to a data base showing seasonal studies on individual stocks and sectors. The data base holds seasonality studies on over 1000 big and moderate cap securities and indices.
To login, simply go to http://www.equityclock.com/charts/
Also, please take advantage of Google ads and other ads available in the data base
Following is an example of EquityClock.com’s seasonality charts:
Whirlpool Corporation (NYSE:WHR) Seasonal Chart
FP Trading Desk Headline
FP Trading Desk headline reads, “S&P 500 weakness a blessing in disguise: JP Morgan”. Following is a link to the report:
Disclaimer: Comments and opinions offered in this report at www.timingthemarket.ca are for information only. They should not be considered as advice to purchase or to sell 
mentioned securities. Data offered in this report is believed to be accurate, but is not guaranteed.
Don and Jon Vialoux are research analysts for Horizons Investment Management Inc. All of the views expressed herein are the personal views of the authors and are not necessarily the views of Horizons Investment Management Inc., although any of the recommendations found herein may be reflected in positions or transactions in the various client portfolios managed by Horizons Investment Management Inc
Horizons Seasonal Rotation ETF HAC April 16th 2012
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Tags - Previous posts for stock ticker: CLS, jnj, KO
April 17th, 2012 at 9:14 am
gmsa,
Re: yesterday # 136.
Although I do pay attention to announcements from the BOJ, I concentrate almost exclusively on the charts. The Yen has a seasonal trade April/May after repatriation of funds to support annual reports. Then it returns to an uptrend that can last well into November. So, I am building a position on that trade. I am following a futures trader who is looking for a rise to 140. But, as long as the trend remains intact, I’ll stick with it. He is up at 2:30 watching the European open ( he also trades the Euro). But most of the action takes place when New York opens. I’ll stick with it.
Closed my SPXU yesterday at the close. SnP was too close to my 1370 target – expect some sort of bounce here – but I still think that we could go lower.
Best!
April 17th, 2012 at 9:30 am
GMSA re post last night
“Great article you posted via that link
You wrote ““Polls give Socialist candidate Francois Hollande victories in both the first and second rounds” – was this the reason for sudden jump in EUR @ noon time & the drop in DXY?
I am still not sure about the sudden change around noon time that lifted commod. & spx both.
As you can see I don’t follow french politics/parties or their platforms closely to understand any implications hence asking.”
Well, I’m happy someone noticed this post… here is what happened to cause the EUR to jump at noon
EUR Surging As FX Repatriation Rears Its Ugly Head Again
Tyler Durden’s picture
Submitted by Tyler Durden on 04/16/2012 13:57 -0400
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/eur-surging-fx-repatriation-rears-its-ugly-head-again
GMSA, I am wathing what is happening in Europe because the Macro Events that happen there will, of course, have a major affect on our markets here.
Re: France. If Hollande wins the election, the result would likely be quite negative for European markets…
“The Socialist candidate Francois Hollande – and the favourite to be the next French president – challenges what has become the German orthodoxy. He believes the focus must move away from austerity to growth. He is likely to challenge German leadership in the eurozone crisis. So – realistically or not – he would spend billions on hiring new teachers, on training young people and finding them jobs.
Mr Hollande will also try and renegotiate the pact enforcing budgetary discipline over eurozone budgets, although the expectation is that he might settle for an understanding on growth rather than opening up the whole negotiations again.”
April 17th, 2012 at 9:34 am
GMSA
France – forgot to mention Hollande also has a mandate to super tax the rich… many of which are reportedly already making plans to exit France.
April 17th, 2012 at 9:42 am
Expecting some volatility today – picking up HVU for day trade. VIX op ex tomorrow
April 17th, 2012 at 9:53 am
I just sold pcln for a nice gain.. I was trying to buy aapl in the first few minutes but wasn’t quick enough and it ran away from me.
April 17th, 2012 at 9:54 am
I’m thinking of shorting cmg but this idiotic stock is so unpredictable..
April 17th, 2012 at 9:55 am
gmsa, congratuations on covering your cog short under $29.. it’s exhibiting some signs of strength this morning.
April 17th, 2012 at 10:15 am
IMF increased global (and Canadian) growth forecast for 2012 and 2013.. should be good for copper. Go fcx Go!
April 17th, 2012 at 10:17 am
PNRA and CMG are in the red.. looks like a rotation of funds from expensive US restaurant stocks to other areas.
April 17th, 2012 at 10:22 am
Gold Sliding On Central Banker Script – First India Cuts Rates, Next Tries To Talk Down Gold
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/gold-sliding-central-banker-script-first-india-cuts-rates-next-tries-talk-down-gold
The reason is simple: central planning script 101, page 1. As we noted earlier, the RBI did a very surprising overnight repo rate cut from 8.5% to 8.0%, the first in three years, and in other words it has just joined the global central planning cartel in attempting to stimulate the economy nominally, even as inflationary packets still abound across the land (see China), by reliquidifying. Yet what does that mean from a modern monetarist standpoint: why crush gold as an alterantive to the local paper currency of course. Sure enough:
INDIA ECONOMY SECRETARY: EXPECT TO LOWER GOLD CONSUMPTION IN ECONOMY – DJ
And there you have it: because the last thing India needs is a surge in gold buying now that it too has joined the global reliquification parade. That said, we are curious in what parallel universe will liquidity easing result in less demand for hard assets. Ask the algos who are selling on nothing but headlines, yet oddly ignoring the fact that India and now Austrialia appear set to enter the race to CTRL-P’s bottom.
April 17th, 2012 at 10:37 am
gmsa
You were asking/ talking about the silvers a couple weeks ago.
Moriarty has an interesting view today on the physical.
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/moriarty041712.html
PSLV now ~ 13.08 and still pretty much on it’s stmomach @
the bottom end of an 7-month sideways range between 13 & 16.
So which move should I make? Buy low now – sell High later?
OR Patience, PATIENCE, Patience! ?
April 17th, 2012 at 10:42 am
gmsa
WOW – you said you are experiencing long working hours – and we are sending you lots of mail, as well – hope you get a chance to read.
First, I want to thank you for the post that reminds us there is more to life than money. That being said, I am heading outdoors soon to tend my garden.
Second, wondering if you are hanging on to your shorts (oops there’s that vision again, lol) and your bears? I think I will stand my ground as what goes up must come down (that somewhat ryhmes)eventually.
April 17th, 2012 at 10:47 am
Slava: FCX, IMN etc are up, yet copper price is flat/down. As per Eve comments maybe this means copper price should go up soon I believe. Hope this materializes and we make some more on FCX.
Michael: CCO.to doing well today, hope it keeps going up, also SNC back in positive territory. Looking to exit holdings in the next few days. I read the S&P needs to go up 30 points from yesterday’s close to do the most damage re option on Friday.
April 17th, 2012 at 10:49 am
Michael
Just got back from Arizona, 77 – 93 degrees. Long drive back to Sherwood Park. Damn it is still cold here -2C. Meanwhile half of my dividend paying stocks mostly oils took a beating, the other half holding up well. Will wait this one out. Dividend money rolling in.
April 17th, 2012 at 10:52 am
kay, fcx seems to have troubles staying firmly above $38.. but I do agree that copper is not likely to fall below $3.60 in the near future after IMF upgraded global growth outlook for 2012 and 2013.. also copper inventories have been dropping meaning supply is still tight. Hopefully fcx moves back to $40 in the near term.
http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2012-04-17/freeport-deal-talk-intensifies-on-cheap-copper-real-m-a.html?cmpid=yhoo
April 17th, 2012 at 10:54 am
Today added ETF CHB to RRSP, a US junk corp bond ETF. I added last week ETF XHY same sector.
These are tiny starter positions…the only bonds I am willing to hold ATM.
XHY basically owns US HYG ETF, hedged to CAD. CHB owns a basket of Junk Bonds directly. Both used to be different corps, but now owned by Ishares. Both basically do the same thing….however I like to have more than one name in the same sector.
I have tested these two ETFs in my margin account since they started 2 years ago, and think they are fine to hold as yield “enhancers” for a small position. Not much cap growth here but steady yield over 7%, which is getting harder and harder to find these days, without higher risk.
Each hold a large basket of Junk Corp Bonds, some will go bust for sure, but most should do better with an improving economy.
They will track the US markets… markets down, they will be down. They are closer to equities than bonds in terms of behavior.
I do not have ETFs in RRSP, except these two here, and this will provide me with diversification in income stream and a relatively high steady yield.
I think they’re fine for an RRSP… both together will eventually be maybe 2.5% of portfolio which would be more than enough.
April 17th, 2012 at 10:54 am
Eve: If you do check the board would love your TA on FCX, price you gave me about a week ago $39-40, wonder if that has changed, please update, thanks and Happy Trading.
April 17th, 2012 at 10:55 am
kay, as for today, fcx is now up +3.28%.. not sure we can squeeze more from it today. I think I will take my profit for now and try to re-enter at a slightly lower price later in the day. Now I have to get ready for work and commute to work, so disruptive to my trading
April 17th, 2012 at 10:56 am
Hi Ric. Oh my, I take it that you stay overnight somewhere…that’s a crazy drive! I miss AZ already…or maybe it’s the happy hours that I miss.
April 17th, 2012 at 11:02 am
Slava: Good thinking, I may watch copper price for a few more minutes and see if it would bounce before selling as well. Have a wonderful day at work.
April 17th, 2012 at 11:05 am
Michael
Stayed in Utah and Montana, 1850 miles total trip. I too miss the happy hours and of course all of the crazy canucks and my new US friends. Will you be buying another place in AZ or renting for next year? Have you played pickleball in AZ? Excellent game right down my ally for racket sports.
April 17th, 2012 at 11:10 am
NTR
Michael, Ric, others – have you bee to the Bryce Canyon? If yes, is it worthwhile visiting? I’d like to plan a road trip from Vancouver to the USA and looking for ideas.. Thank you.
April 17th, 2012 at 11:10 am
Hi kay. Indeed, uranium stocks are hot today, especially DML and UUU (woohoo!). It looks like the bulls are in control today.
April 17th, 2012 at 11:15 am
Slava
NTR
Not yet, just bought a year ago in AZ. Will tour further out once I have more time.
Love the climate, and people. Lots to do, just no time yet. Still working full time pumping oil in Edmonton.
April 17th, 2012 at 11:19 am
canuck2004,
Added GE to my partner’ account this morning. Earnings due Friday – expect an increase in their dividend.
BAC moving nicely this am. Earnings also due Thursday.
Good move into the bond funds!
Best!
April 17th, 2012 at 11:20 am
Hi Ric. I probably will wait until the fall before really looking again. There’s just not a lot of inventory. I have never played pickleball, maybe because I don’t like pickles (!), but probably because my hand-eye co-ordination is decreasing as the years pass.
Slava. I have never been to Bryce. Have you been to the Columbia Gorge area? Absolutely stunning and you can then stay in Spokane and/or the Washington wine country (excellent under-rated wines).
April 17th, 2012 at 11:26 am
Hi Kay,
I don’t recall giving you an opinion on FCX of a week ago – maybe 2 weeks ago as that is when the mid keltner was showing at close to that $40 level (FCX got to $39.85 which was just above the mid kelt and then came down from there) – and my analysis is based on the keltner and on the downtrend of FCX (there has been lower highs and lower lows since it hit its high this year in Jan).
So, if you just look at both the downtrend and the kelt, then FCX would basically only be going up to the mid keltner (maybe a bit above it) and then down again. It’s right at the mid kelt right now at just over $38 (mid kelt is at $37.83). For it to get to $40, this would mean getting decisively above the mid kelt AND possibly then, going back into an uptrend (If it got to $40 that is). Now IF copper has found a floor (for now), then this is conceivable in the next month or so – but for right now, as long as FCX cannot get much higher than the mid keltner, then the trend still remains down.
So, caution right here at that $38 level is warranted – the 4 day MA for today is showing as $37.47 – so, that’s a consideration too for tomorrow. Here’s the chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=FCX&p=D&b=7&g=0&id=p92798104960
Things change each week Kay (as you know too
), so with that, price objectives on stocks will change too such that prices given from say 2 weeks ago will no longer be valid 2 weeks later as in that time period, the chart will have changed – just as FCX 2 weeks ago had the mid kelt at around $39/ $40 whereas today, the mid kelt is at around $38 (thus showing its downtrend still being intact) – so, things (the charts that is) need to be looked at every day (at least every week).
Hope this helps Kay
eve
April 17th, 2012 at 11:40 am
Slava,
NTR
I’ve been to Bryce – and Red Canyon to the south. It is well worth the trip!
We left Vancouver – drove down to Portland – headed over to Tillamook that took us to hwy 101 which takes you all the way down to San Diego along the Pacific. All kinds of quaint towns along the way (stop in at the Russian settlement – near Fort Ross on your way down). We stopped in at Monterey – visited the amazing aquarium – went to Salinas to see Steinbeck’s museum – then to Big Sur – LA – the Getty museum – Hearst Castle in San Simeon (where I met Paul Martin who was on the tour). Lots of attractions – fabulous scenery and food along the way. Herds of seal lions along the beach near San Simeon.
You need to travel across to Arizon – Utah to get to Zion and Bryce. It was a trip of a lifetime!
Best!
April 17th, 2012 at 11:51 am
Tony,
Interesting options data.
http://leavittbrothers.com/blog/?p=5538
April 17th, 2012 at 11:53 am
Eve: Thanks for providing TA on FCX, glad I asked the questioned again as I had a different price for this and would be waiting for price to move to experience disappointment. Also, please post the obvious as you see, today being an up day, any follow thru for the week. Thanks again and have a good one.
April 17th, 2012 at 11:55 am
Liking the action on BBD.B so bought back a small position… charts looks good short term. We will see….
April 17th, 2012 at 12:00 pm
# 25-Wayne…
Yep still holding BAC, expect earnings to be fine Thursday… wouldn’t take much to make it move… it’s so hated that anything positive would do it…lol
Ye, looking at GE as well for Retirement plan… good long term hold. As the saying: “as GE goes, so does the US economy”…GE has always been seen as a proxy for the US economy, so IF we are going to climb out of the recession and see an expansion… got to be there for sure.
Only have so much money though to invest monthly… bulk of cash flow comes in mid month mostly, then dribs and dabs until end of month.
April 17th, 2012 at 12:08 pm
Cannuck2004,
I like GE because of it’s wide moat (to paraphrase Warren Buffet). Most of it’s earnings are from overseas operations. Yes, it was always viewed as a proxy for the US economy. If they could only get rid of Inmelt, they might move forward. But, I also look at it as a long term hold. I’ll write calls against it to boost yield.
Best!
April 17th, 2012 at 12:10 pm
# 28-Wayne, been there done that too….many times….lol…I’ve been on every tour of Hearst Castle over the years. In the early 70s my wife and I spent a winter at Imperial Beach CA. Been all over the West several times, Grand Canyon, Monument Valley, Great Salt Lake (you float for real!),Petrified Forest, Meteor Crater, Hoover Dam, Tomstone and Bisbee…LA, Disney, Alcatraz, Death Valley, Frisco, etc. more than I can list. Fun…some of these places I haven’t seen in years… so perhaps we’ll go back and see the changes. Disney in the early 70s was falling apart, quite sad.
April 17th, 2012 at 12:11 pm
# 33-Wayne, I like conglomerates like GE for the retirement plan…. out of fashion tho as now days every one wants “Pure Plays”.
Cheers…
April 17th, 2012 at 12:27 pm
eve
Are you sure?
TCK 50$…
April 17th, 2012 at 12:36 pm
Wayne
thx for article
but wouldn’t you agree only a dummy would hold on to its option position this week?
the big boys have already rolled there position over to the next month.
April 17th, 2012 at 12:38 pm
Canuck and All
BBD
now that is a good looking chart nice W shape,
indicators are positive.
now if it breaks above the 200 that would be so sweet.
April 17th, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Wayne
Yes, Levitt Bros. interesting chart…. are you a subscriber?
There is Expiration on Wednesday and Friday – can you or someone explain this please.
April 17th, 2012 at 12:41 pm
Hi Eve, Tony , Tawny,
HVU.TO was crushed today.
Do you think there is any chance for it to go higher. Its mid of April and usually this is the time when the market becomes volatile and goes lower is there anything that might be different this time?
April 17th, 2012 at 12:42 pm
Re #16, thanks once again for your ideas for RRSPs. You certainly are correct about the correlation with the markets. CHB has a 200 day MA of .71 vs. $SPX (pretty high). I like the 7%+ yield. Are your concerned about the so called “sell in May” phenom?
I am watching WJX for the same purpose – it has a yield of 6.7% and has been out-performing the TSX Small Cap index for almost 2 years and is performing 100% above now. Its 200 day MA correlation is only .51 making it a good alternative to the broad market.
April 17th, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Eve
I got one silly Question
Apple reports next tuesday… with this downfall just prior to Earnings release it could escalate back to its all time high, by tuesday if so would you short it or go long.
(we got two conflicting indicators price vs earnings and darva box.)
April 17th, 2012 at 12:45 pm
Canuck,
That Hearst castle is one piece of work. He lived quite a life. The vast expanse of acreage he flaunted was quite amazing. Interestingly all that wealth began with investments in precious metals
KC
April 17th, 2012 at 12:46 pm
My comments in #41 were supposed to be directed to Canuck2004 and the correlation coefficient for WJX is with the TSX.
April 17th, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Eve,
Since you’ve shed your comments on FCX, could you please shed some light on TCK.B as well ?
And if I’m not asking too much I’d love to hear your views on TTM. Do you think its a buy here? Does the daily chart have some kind of a W pattern or do you see it in a channel since Feb/12? It just broke above the channel, however, yet to see if it closes above.
KC
April 17th, 2012 at 12:48 pm
Rami/AB
This is options expiration week – I am certainly not very knowledgeable on this, other than it can significantly affect the markets. Next Bradley date is April 23 and since other dates have been quite correct for Europe… I am of the thought that the markets will go down next week, may be the election in France on the 22nd that is the catalyst. Just my humble opinion so I am holding on to my bears because this move up was sudden and do not care to sell at a loss at this time when markets usually start a summer pull back anyway. Don V. has been saying to sell into strength – sell long holdings, that is.
April 17th, 2012 at 12:50 pm
Tawny,
I still hold SPXU. I feel like I should have sold it yesterday. I see gmsa sold his. If it goes against us, at what SPX price do you expect to be your stop loss?
Thanks,
KC
April 17th, 2012 at 12:56 pm
KC
Not holding SPXU. Did you see my note to Rami. I will likely buy more bear before Friday… though I will be watching UpTrend to see what his charts say. Not as experienced as Wayne – he saw it coming. Did not think about this being option ex. week. Whiteside always says markets move down much faster than up so I see my smallish losses on TZA, SQQ and FAZ can be made up quite quickly. Also, note in #1, Wayne also feels the markets can go lower. I’m going to garden centres now.
April 17th, 2012 at 12:57 pm
Hi all,
I have questions regarding TAX.Last month my wife received a ‘notice of assessment’ from CRA and it shows that she didn’t report an investment T5 from 2010 tax year so they billed her to pay tax.I called them and found out that they have a T5 from ”td pacific mortgage corp” issued in 2010 with her SIN on it and other person on the T5 is ‘NOT ME’but some other dude with my same “last” name as us.CRA want me to find out from TD bank and bank want to know more as there is no account no. on the T5 copy I got from CRA.
Anyways today the lady from TD called that it could be AN INVESTMENT she have with TD Products such as Stock,bonds mutual funds of TD.I told her I have a JOINT investment account with my wife but with CIBC “not” TD.When I ask her who is that other person on T5 then she have no answer.
My concern here is also that some have ‘hijacked’ my wife’s SIN and sticking her with the investment return tax to deal with and hiding somewhere.We didn’t receive a copy of this T5 last year mailed to us as this copy also have our address otherwise i would have found out last year in feb-march and try finding it out.
Anyways long story short You guys with lot more trading years experience is it possible that Someone’s product(TD’s knowingly or not) I buy thru CIBC and receive a direct T5 from td pacific mortgage or someone else(I am assuming here that other dude on t5 could be just me not someone else).I remember I mostly traded “horizon beta products”hgu/hgd,hnu/hnd that year.Do they have anything to do with TD banks?
Even if I bought third party products thru CIBC investor edge shouldn’t any interest earned or gains T5 should be from CIBC as they send me one for few dividends I received from different stocks.
I hope I get some answers as i am planing to call CRA tomorrow and hope guys might help me with some questions I should ask them like give me proof or else.
kam
April 17th, 2012 at 12:59 pm
Rami
HVU
look at your intraday charts 60min, 30min, 15min you can either see resistances holding or supports failing.
and all this happened around april 12th
April 17th, 2012 at 1:02 pm
#38 Tony
Yep…if it breaks abouve the last high at 4.38, I will double up; if it breaks the 200 DMA or 4.50, I will double up again….this thing can move quite fast, so I only double up if it is on a tear UP…. good chance of a 5.00 break.
Nice higher lows…only 2, but nice anyway that it did not make a new low.
April 17th, 2012 at 1:06 pm
Three more positive comments re WJX if I may, and one cautionary note:
It’s beta is less than 1 (.89) and the PE is just 12.67, both low for a small cap – or should I say medium cap (market cap is 806.3M)? It is trading at its all time high (it’s been listed for over 20 years.
WXJ has been having some trouble crossing its recent high of about 49.50 to 49.89. But if it can pop over and hold, or even if it does “sell in May” is it a buying candidate?
April 17th, 2012 at 1:07 pm
Wayne, thanks for post #28.. I saved it in my “travel” file.
April 17th, 2012 at 1:08 pm
Kam
Think the best person to answer you would be Ray/Kitch or CJ I think they both do taxes.
One thing I would do would be spend the money at least the other party will look so foolish if did use your wife sin number for you to pay the taxes.
hey at least think of it you got extra money that you didn’t know to pay someone elses taxes.
April 17th, 2012 at 1:09 pm
#41-Freddebuoy
For RRSP, no… I buy and Hold.
For Margin trading account, no….I let the charts talk to me.
Seasonality, Presidential Cycle, Sector Rotation, Short Positions, Options Positions, Selling May, etc. these are all useful, but NOT THE GOSPEL… they are simple guides …
Read the tape and listen to what the market is telling you….the charts are telling you what’s happening today.
Don’t get too caught up in over analyzing the market either… it what it is, so in an uptrend, go with the trend….doesn’t matter what the talking heads say… Keep it simple.
April 17th, 2012 at 1:10 pm
Tawny,
I did read your note to Rami and you did say “you were holding onto your bears…”. SPXU that I hold is the SPX bear play.
KC
April 17th, 2012 at 1:11 pm
ron, micheal
IMAX
nice it stopped on its 100MA support
are you thinking of getting back into IMAX
April 17th, 2012 at 1:12 pm
Hi Eve,
When you have a moment, could yoy please give me few stocks that are good candidates for shorting.
Thank you very much, Ania
April 17th, 2012 at 1:14 pm
Canuck, Tony,
Which BBD do you trade .A or .B ? Also, if it goes against your predictions where would you jump ship? If it hold above $4.38 today, I guess you would buy ?
Thanks,
KC
April 17th, 2012 at 1:24 pm
Hi Tony,
Thanks. If i get any money out of that account I will clean it but the thing is that TD bank couldn’t find anything.we went to bank and they didn’t find any account.Few days ago they said maybe someone left large amount there to generate interest as shown on T5 but lady called and said it could be any freakn thing.CRA want tax and TD don’t know about the account which generated that interest.Just because CRA got a T5 out of ‘thin air’with my wife SIN on it is frustrating so thats why i want help here.
Kam
April 17th, 2012 at 1:31 pm
Hi Ray/Kitchener ,CJ or anyone else.
If you guy have a suggestion about my question in post#49 please do.
Thanks kam
Tony,
adding to #60
Only thing we got is tax bill and no account no. to show for where that money is otherwise We might be in Cancun along with Slava last few days,lol.
kam
April 17th, 2012 at 1:31 pm
KC
bbd.b
a share is for the vp.
April 17th, 2012 at 1:35 pm
Kam,
I recommend asking for a Manager or someone further up the line in CRA. I’ve had conflicts with CRA before and have hashed out the issues with a Manager over several phone calls and had favourable results. Maybe getting a letter from TD stating that the account never existed might help. Thirdly, ask CRA to fax you a copy of this mysterious T5 and check it out for yourself.
KC
April 17th, 2012 at 1:36 pm
Eve,
What are your thoughts on SPX breaking above mid-Keltner (20,2.5,10) here? Will a one day hold on close above mid Kelt make you short term bullish?
KC
April 17th, 2012 at 1:39 pm
Hey all,
The market is still in downtrend. TCK.B looks good, and I see many looking for the bottom or a ‘turn around’ stock will buy it. My personal opinion is just wait until the market confirms uptrend. Yes, you may miss ‘THE BOTTOM’ but at least you may increase your chance of winning. ‘HOPE’ doesn’t help you win. It is just like a rolling a dice on a table.
I looked my trading records for past years. Surely I lost a good fortune when I was betting against market. And yes, try to put a stop loss according to a chart.
April 17th, 2012 at 1:44 pm
Tony,
Only gamblers buy p/c this close to expiration. Lottery tickets! Except, if I was a seller – I’d be closing my position if it looked like it was headed itm.
But, you’re right – the pros are long gone. They usually roll out 2 – 3 weeks prior to expiration.
Tawny,
No, I am not a subscriber. A broker friend who knows that I trade options sent this to me.
Canuck 2004,
PBS is doing a special on the Hoover Dam. Have you taken the tour? Quite impressive.
Have you been to Death Valley? We were there in July 2007 – heading to Santa Fe. It was 128 degrees. I stopped the car and took a walk into the desert towards a dune. My partner remained in the car with the a/c blasting full bore. It was like walking into a pizza oven. When I spotted a rattler beneath a rock, I headed back to the car! A couple of F 15′s flew by – chasing each other – very low level. They use it as a test area – Top Gun flight school in Miramar.
We also stopped at Zabriskie Point – hottest spot on the planet!
April 17th, 2012 at 1:48 pm
Kam
That was a great idea spending someone elses money…
It is odd… to open an account, put money in it receive the interest and then close the account before the person knows about it.
darn as you speak of this I heard something similar situation but it wasn’t that the person invested money into someone elses account he had access to someone elses account.
Here is the story…
in 2001 or 2002 someone without knowing went to teller asked to withdraw money from his account got the receipt, and the odd thing was the account held much more $ then he had in his account the week before.
but he realized this mess after he got back home. by looking at the statement.
went back to the bank and explained the account wasn’t his. but they said it was impossible for him to access any other accounts other then the ones programmed on his debit card.
talking to a relative they figured that he (out of the blue) had access to this relative account. they both went to their respective branch and the teller told the relative that it was forgery and theft done by his relative that was how he could access into someone elses account.
Can you believe this if you know you have access to someone else account you don’t go talking about it or simply want to restitute the money back into the account.
April 17th, 2012 at 1:51 pm
#55 canuck 2004
totally agree … there has been so much “sell in may” comments from every talking head on TV / radio / print that i am taking the other side of the bet and staying with my holdings totally … maybe be totally wrong as well but as a contrarian position …. maybe ( US presedent needs a great summer rally and if ben gives up a little in june, watch out above)
April 17th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Kam, as far as I know a T5 has to have an account # for reference.. I’ve never seen a T5 without an account #. If it comes from TD you need to go to TD and escalate this – if they are not helpful threaten them with a lawsuit or go to the ombudsman, etc. If TD name is on T5 and they can’t find anything well it’s just not good enough. Here is a link for you:
http://www.td.com/to-our-customers/resolving-your-problems/comments.jsp
April 17th, 2012 at 1:54 pm
Kam
Here is a suggestion
Call CRA, ask them who are the two send you the info on the statement.
Name of the bank and account holders.
go to the bank and have them crossreference any investment done at both names.
and from there if there is no result ask the bank to confirm the following. and send the info to CRA in your wifes name.
usually they should be able to find any investment done under your wife’s name.
April 17th, 2012 at 1:56 pm
Kam,
Having worked at TD for a certain length of time – the only thing that I can think of was the the data clerk entered your wife’s SIN number in error. It happens.
I would suggest that you get a letter from TD confirming their error, or confirming the fact that you have no such account. Banks don’t like to be told that they made a mistake – so insist on a document confirming this fact so that you can forward it to CRA.
Make damn sure that you have your own copy of this letter. Chances are that this could happen again next year.
If they refuse, get the manager’s name and extension #- pass it on the the CRA – let them deal with it!
I don’t think that anything nefarious is happening. This sort of thing happens frequently.
Best!
April 17th, 2012 at 1:58 pm
Young
TCK
did you see my comment to Kay yesterday about tck above 150MA for the last 3days.
that was your entry point. and exit point should it fail well 150MA.
April 17th, 2012 at 2:04 pm
Hi KC,
Thanks for respond.
I will look at talking to a manager at CRA and i also thought about that letter from TD bank.lady up there which called today and try to spin it as saying it could be an investment in a product which td owns is just trying to make me go away.One thing she have said is that she wrote to their ‘investigating dept’yesterday and it takes 2 weeks to get answer back so I am in no full attack mode yet.
Yes we already got a copy of T5 from CRA and it only has my wife’s name,her SIN,address and amount of interest earned and that ‘dude’ name written at the bottom as second person on that account.NO SIN for him .I saw other T5′s and they all have an account no. written on them but their is NO ACCOUNT # ON THIS T5. Unbelievable but that mean I can just send a T5 to CRA with anyone SIN and address and they will just want money but no proof to show where it is from.
I just called CIBC and ask them is it possible to get T5 from ‘TD’ which the lady said is not unless I have TD mutualfund and I never traded TD in my account.
I know what it is.I think TD screwup somewhere and they don’t know that to do.
maybe clerical error. there is a chance that there might be a T5 coming for tax year 2011 which we haven’t received yet but show up as notice of assessment next year.
kam
April 17th, 2012 at 2:05 pm
Tony, Canuck,
Do you see CIG-N a buy on the daily chart at the 19 or 20dma?
KC
April 17th, 2012 at 2:12 pm
Hi Tony. Not really looking to get back into IMX. Maybe if it dips below $22 this week.
April 17th, 2012 at 2:14 pm
#59-KC
BBD.B is a short term trade, high risk. Only jump on it in an uptrend…. and add to it IF it continues uptrend as long as it continues uptrend. A momentum pick.
Right now right time of year for this guy and right time in cycle. Should be moving up…now or later.
IF it starts to slow, trade sideways, trade down, or any lack luster behaviour, like tight trading range I will dump and come back later.
Catch this guy right, tons of money to be made. I usually get it every year, eventually…lol…last year was quite good, rode close to top and sold….
This is NOT a buy and hold…ask the guys who bought it at 40 and are still waiting….lol…
April 17th, 2012 at 2:15 pm
KC
CIG
has been striking 100MA and pulling back so I would wait for price to open and close above 100MA. for the time being.
April 17th, 2012 at 2:15 pm
Kam,
TD has screwed up several times in my recent past. They always try to find ways to sweep it under the rug. I have spent a surmountable amount of time correcting mistakes on the part of the branch as well as Waterhouse. Human errors do happen, but when they happen repeatedly year after year, one begins to question their integrity as a reputable financial institution.
KC
April 17th, 2012 at 2:16 pm
Kam – and all,
LMFOA!!!
I am the Treasurer of the local art gallery. I completed the tax return and paid Tax due online (no more paper accounts allowed)about a month ago. We were late in filing -so I paid the penalty by check a couple of weeks ago.
I just received a registered letter from the NY State tax authorities demanding overdue taxes, and imposing a penalty.
So, I sent them my confirmation of taxes paid and a copy of the check that was processed for the late penalty, and addressed it to: “The idiot who didn’t take the time to check the account and cost the NY state taxpayers $ 3.35 in postal charges”.
There’s probably a law down here that prohibits insults against public civil serbs whose IQ matches their shoe size! Probably 5th degree harrasment with a 5 year prison term at Attica!
So Kam, your’re not the only one who needs to deal with incompetent a….holes!!
April 17th, 2012 at 2:17 pm
Canuck : Great advice, thanks!
Tony : I will watch it
thanks.
April 17th, 2012 at 2:20 pm
Canuck
BBD.b back in 01 A friend of mine told me BBD wasn’t worth more then 7$ and its just price back then was around 4.50
imagine how I was shocked by his comment, and darn he was right back then imagine today.
seeing how this company trades.
April 17th, 2012 at 2:21 pm
KC,
Late last night you wrote to Eve about TTM @ NYSE analysis.
I had been watching this & took a plunge – of course on a short side- some time ago. After quite many whipsaws around my price and TTM’s relative strength to the entire auto sector and $SPX, decided to fold my short (few pennies below my BV) with a grand profit (as CJ writes) of $19!!!
When things started breaking down took a plunge again but of no luck… today it hit another high (14 months or so). Since early Jan. it has remained above 50sma. except for two days in late march…
For now I’m going to hold, but do acknowledge the fact that it’s THE strongest performer. May take a shot again to avg. up & to get out w/o any further losses but, it all depends. 28.50/27/26.25 are the horizontal support lines per my charts.
re. ECA – didnot have enough time to act this AM, put the buy to cover (as I was going to be away for many hours) but didnot get a fill…so holding on to it.
FYI… Still holding the SPXU…wish I offloaded it yesterday like Wayne – the Whiz. Thought he was to targetting 1340 first… But if another day $spx holds above 1394 I’m going to have a serious thinking on all the shorts & levered longs.
oh well, another day will bring brighter light
(I hope 
)
April 17th, 2012 at 2:23 pm
# 66-no haven’t taken the tour…my dad was with us and at the time he had a bad heart and could not do any stairs. Next time.
Death valley been all over, lowest spot, Devil’s Golf Course, Rainbow Canyon, etc. in May…still hot. I really like it… I love the harshness of it all… especially as compared to Vancouver which is lush and green all year around….that’s why we like AZ. There’s a nice old hotel in the South part of the valley that I’d like to stay in during July…just to experience the hottest time… pool would be great! We had lunch there… and had a drink at the bar… barkeep was a Canuck… lol… so he knew how to make a Caesar for my wife…(the drink is from Calgary only known in Western Canada… don’t order it back East, you’ll get the salad…lol)
April 17th, 2012 at 2:25 pm
tony, 4ma crossed 9ma on the way up.. I suppose I should continue to hold gmcr.. tend to sell too soon when I have a profit. The only thing which concerns me about this stock is sudden negative news about some accounting issues or a lawsuit.. hmm.
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GMCR&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p91904189178
April 17th, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Hi Wayne. I’m glad that I don’t have to deal with a US tax return this year but will have the (dis)pleasure in 2013 due to the sale of my AZ condo. I have called the IRS frequently, spending around 4 hours on hold in total while getting several different answers. Oh what a joy…
April 17th, 2012 at 2:34 pm
Slava
I gave you my answer yesterday. buy gmcr and don’t short sbux.
and because of you I entered this one in the 44$ area
April 17th, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Slava
Girl remember GTE
I entered at the bottom and sold at 5.20 wand it is at 6.15
so don’t go and short it now.
April 17th, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Wayne,
re.#1
Thx for the explanation & your poss. target -140- on FXY. Wouldn’t that be quite a stretch from the current level of 122? If that level is reached then most japanese exporters will cry or go bankrupt. Time to short TM, SNE & other export based sectors within that country? Or I’m reading something wrong there in your post?
Congrats on closing SPXU trade of yours!
Glad to notice & learn how you ‘seperated’ your thinking (of spx going to 1340) from the ‘actual’ money at risk.
Need similar continued learning & reminder to strengthen my trading/investment psychology. Thx for sharing that trade as well.
Good day!
April 17th, 2012 at 2:36 pm
Slava
87 was about gmcr so don’t you short it now.
April 17th, 2012 at 2:41 pm
tony, you are making a bit of money on gmcr because I mentioned the stock to you? Music to my ears!!! You are so nice and spend so much time helping me and everyone else I hope you make a ton of money in the market! I’m sending very positive energy your way
April 17th, 2012 at 2:41 pm
Eve, gmsa and Slava,
Thank you for your comments regarding Horizon products. In my rush to get a message to Slava, while I was trading, I of course was referring to holding HGU in a volatile market. Simply, that if you purchased the HGU at a certain gold price, the gold price will be higher to break even with the HGU product because of the rebalancing process each day.
I have been trading HOU and HOD for three years. I was not advising to stay away from the Horizon product. One can make a good living by trading the Horizon product with a small investment for trading. That is the reason they are so popular.
Slava, today I am trading HGU.
April 17th, 2012 at 2:45 pm
NTR
I moved to Canada at the age of 19 and love this country.. It’s become my home and I’m very grateful. The only upsetting thing is that Canada doesn’t have warm and sunny places (in the fall/winter) like California, Arizona, Florida, Hawaii, etc… So when I go to Napa valley or Maui or South beach I’d love to still be in Canada! Oh well – I suppose we have the “Northern beauty” here.
April 17th, 2012 at 2:49 pm
The IRS is one of the most disfunctional, yet most powerful organizations on the planet. Their tentacles reach out across the world in a vain attempt to prevent the bankruptcy of the most powerful nation on earth.
- Washington Economist.
You NEVER want to get on the wrong side of the IRS. They can pursue you relentlessly -down through the generations. They NEVER admit to any errors. You are guilty until YOU prove that you’re innocent.
I would suggest that you contact a tax lawyer down here – the tax code is so confusing – almost nobody understands it. Even if you do get an answer to your question – they can reject your return and claim that you mis-stated your situation. They can slap you with a penalty that no one has ever heard about before.
Better to cover yourself.
April 17th, 2012 at 2:50 pm
Ana, my hgu “buy and hold” was cocky and stupid.. I can’t even mention how many shares I hold, it’s been tying up my capital. Oh well. Another mistake. I had several chances to get out at a small profit but I didn’t. Holding 22,900 hgu between three accounts at $10.22 av. cost. Madness!
April 17th, 2012 at 2:51 pm
Slava
not bad making 1.75/share in less then 2days.
April 17th, 2012 at 2:51 pm
GMSA,
You are fantastic, thank you for all your detailed comments.
KC
April 17th, 2012 at 2:56 pm
kay, I’m thinking of buying fcx back.. to buy or not to buy? Tony?
April 17th, 2012 at 2:56 pm
I put a small short on pcln just above $718.. perhaps the run up in momos is done for the day. Already put a stop loss.
April 17th, 2012 at 2:58 pm
gmsa,
The 140 was his “target”. Looking at the charts – it just might “slingshot” that high – but I seriously doubt it. You are right – Japan is an exporting nation – and the BOJ would step in to force it back down – they have already done that once and they will do it again. I am looking for a double in my position – and will roll into September to get there. Still long from 118.00
Re: SPXU. 1370 was my “stop” – after watching yesterday’s run up near the close – I bailed as I expected the run to continue into Tuesday.
April 17th, 2012 at 2:59 pm
Tony,
GIS-N is at the verge of a 4/9 crossover, also broke above mid Keltner and 18dma. Do you think its a buy now ?
Re. your comments to Slava on GTE.TO, does it look like a buy here and do you think it will stay above 18dma?
KC
April 17th, 2012 at 2:59 pm
okay, closed my pcln position.. I think I’m starting to overtrade.. done for the day.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:00 pm
Hi Tony, Slava,Wayne
Thanks all guys.
Wayne,
Re-71,I read your post after I finish writing mine.same as i thought it could be.
Re-79, you are so right.I was taking it slowly but when lady from TD called today and try to spin it that maybe in your trading acc. you bought a TD Product which made me mad because the way she was talking as that it is my and CRA problem not TD’s. And the funny thing is that when I ask her what are TD products? She said, td stock,mutual funds etc. Then I asked her “Are horizon betapro(hnu/hnd,etc.) are TD products? She said “I can’t tell as I have never heard of them.” I started laughing and asked if ‘silver wheaton’ a td products and she asked ‘If it is a stock?’ ,LOL.At that point I told her to finish her investigating and call me in 2 weeks as i knew she have no idea about trading or stocks and telling me that maybe we got T5 from a TD product. Thank god she is not my investment adviser.No wonder she didn’t want to talk to me and only my wife today on phone as I have her on the run too in bank about a month ago.
Tony,
When we went to bank a month ago i ask them to ‘find’ an account for my wife name other than the accounts we have there already. They couldn’t find anything.There goes my cancun vacation for free,lol.
Slava,
that T5 copy CRA sent me has no ACCOUNT # written on it. So when we got to bank and we called from there and lady ask them to send the original copy of T5 and guess what same freakn thing arrived at home with no ACC.#.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:03 pm
Tawny,
re.#2, #3, #12 & #10 re. gold & INR
Thanks for taking the time to explain the political situation there in France & what might happen. It’s v.much appreciated.
As just wrote to KC, will hold bear etfs and the shorts for now & see what today’s close brings. To me 1394 and then 1400 round figure seem more important & if $SPX holds above these will have to think seriously. Long term Spanish bond auction on Thurs. AM might give another jolt to the markets…today’s auction was a surprisingly +ve…some EFSF/LTRO money found it’s way back into these short bond auction today to cap the rising yields?
INR showing good strength against most currency today after those stimulus efforts by RBI overnight…should be mildly +ve for the gold. But the technical action overnight proved it otherwise. So overall, muted response to $gold from this angle.
Lastly, between the work and the markets on an average I spend 12-14hrs on computers/screens. At times it gets tough when it hits 19-20hrs. Thank God there are weekends to relax & recover my vision and the aching back!
Glad have younger kids in the home; they make me forget about all these…going out on a bicycle ride with them refreshes me like gardening does to you.
Happy Gardening!
April 17th, 2012 at 3:07 pm
gmsa, re “Glad have younger kids in the home; they make me forget about all these”.. hmm.. perhaps I should try this – I’ve been pretty tried and stressed out myself between work and trading
April 17th, 2012 at 3:08 pm
Kam, I’m sorry you are going through this mess with CRA. TD has to give you the details of the T5 and there needs to be a track record of it. All T5s are generated by the computer systems – so it can’t be a manual error unless someone issued a manual duplicate of the T5.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:11 pm
The ONLY sector which I really need to go up in order to see a meaningful gain in my portfolio is precious metals stocks and they’ve been doing the worst lately.. so frustrating! Need a cup of Starbucks coffee and one of those blueberry bars to cheer me up asap! A long walk to the mall awaits..
April 17th, 2012 at 3:12 pm
tony, I’m out of gmcr for now.. may buy back tomorrow.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:16 pm
Slava
FCX
150MA is current resistance. so no I don’t like it here.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:18 pm
Tony, thanks.. how about Osisko?
April 17th, 2012 at 3:18 pm
gmas,
I’ve told this story before on this board about TD Waterhosers.
I had my account open for about a couple of months with them – I went into my local branch and asked to speak to a “professional advisor”. When she finally arrived, I asked what the policy was about shorting stock. She said, just a minute I’ll have to check. She called Toronto and asked the rep. “I have a client here who wants to sell shorts. What’s our policy”!! I kid you not! I burst out into loud laughter. Tears were streaming down my face. The office staff looked our way to try and figure what was happening.
I said “Don’t bother.. I’ll buy them when I take my next trip to Jamaica”.Needless to say, I closed my account (six figures) and never returned.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:20 pm
Eve, Tony, Wayne, Ray-Kitchener, all those wanting to comment:
Can anyone give their view of the market?
April 17th, 2012 at 3:23 pm
KC
GIS, GTE
The General as they call it
what I like about it is that recently 38MA has been holding as support what I hate about it is that since it broke below 100MA in march it poked its head above it in early april and thats it if it can simply hold above 100MA then I would feel comfortable with this one.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:23 pm
Slava,
Gdx top yesterday at $47.74 and hgu at $9.21
Gdx today $47.71and hgu high $8.93
Thanks $cad for screwing us today.
One thing i did today was trade Slw.to successfully(slw remind me of that TD lady again,lol).I bought it today at 29.40 and sold at 30.20 as I saw SLW reached top price of the gap down it had yesterday.I saw it spinning its wheels at ($30.60-65).$30.63 was the price it gapped down yesterday to.So as SLW reached its gap today I knew it will be had to fill that so sold my SLW.TO at canadian equivalent at $30.20 and ran away.
I had just finished selling it when I received phone call from her so thats how I asked her about slw along with horibeta products,lol
April 17th, 2012 at 3:24 pm
#84 Michael and #93 Wayne
This firm handles Canada vs USA tax issues. They specialize in it.
http://www.keatsconnelly.com/
They have offices in Phoenix and Florida.
They deal mostly with Candians holding real estate in US… and Candians moving to US…I’ve dealt with them before… they are expensive but know what they are doing.
You should also have a Canadian Accountant(as I do) since you have to report your world income in Canada as well as USA. You can get a tax break up here for paying USA taxes.
As Wayne says, yep the IRS will chase you to the grave… and don’t think you are safe in Canada either, Revenue Canada is just as bad, they’ll go into your bank account. I’ve spent small fortunes on lawyers and specialized accountants to fight Revenue Canada on GST and tax issues.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:26 pm
#140,
Slava, next time your Michael goes to the mountains to ski, tag along, rent some equipment and take some lessons.
There is nothing more exhilarating than down hill skiing in the mountains, in the spring.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:29 pm
Rol Lew,
re.#11
Thx for sharing the article. I will highlight one thing that I have been believing in & using it for my own trades. He has stated that in the 2nd paragraph there.
“Anything that gives you a clear picture of investor psychology can be used as a strong signal of when to buy or when to sell.”
Funny thing is whether it’s copper/gold/silver or any of these it works like a charm – first observed closely with nickle mania, then copper, silver & lastly gold. Time will fill the gaps in same studies with AAPL & social media stocks. I wrote about this back in late summer/fall of last year about superimposing charts of $silver over $gold to see how the mass psychology works!
Same game, only different names!!
Re. you question on PSLV: not knowing much about the product itself, will simply say this: glancing over the charts of PSLV & SLV over past 16months, SLV looks stronger than the PSLV…could be wrong statastically.
Honestly, not knowing how these CEFs (as Wayne introduced me to this term few weeks back) and their ‘perceived’ valuations work & how easily they can be skewed, would be hesitant to buy it. Better gamble with SLV.
FD: I’m short silver stocks & gold stocks. Don’t think it’s time to buy gld/slv or stocks yet. For premium collection I’m short may $40 G.TO puts as I won’t mind getting it below $39 – will not be my full position even if it’s put to me.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:30 pm
darn again
I hate when I hit the submit button before finishing my post.
KC
GTE.to
if you draw a line on the recent tops and bottoms this is the ting either closes above 6.63 or below 5.96 (these numbers are approximate) this is where you want to either take position or stay away.
Indicators are falling so I would bet more that it breaks below 5.96 then it moves higher.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:39 pm
Slava
OSK.to
I would wait to see if it holds 9.57 before entering.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:39 pm
#115.
I meant to post a reference of #104 instead of #140 to Slava.
Maybe this is the reason I am not making mega bucks like the rest of you!
You need a challenging hobby to take your mind off trading for the weekends, this was my suggestion.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:40 pm
Slava,
Google – Judy Collins singing “Michael from Mountains”.
Like Ana says “you need to rest girl”!!!
April 17th, 2012 at 3:41 pm
Hi Canuck2004 and Wayne. Thanks for the note on Keats. They are first on my list.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:44 pm
Eve,
What did you trade today?
Do you cash out of your positions daily?
April 17th, 2012 at 3:46 pm
Ana and Wayne, my Michael just called from the top of Whistler expressing how much fun he is having.. I couldn’t get time off work so I couldn’t join him. If I were to win a lottery I would definitely stay with him since while he is very financially irresponsible he is a ton of fun to be with. Very intense and not boring at all… highly stimulating. So if money is not an issue my hot Russian is the one to pick!
April 17th, 2012 at 3:48 pm
Slava & Ana,
Acknowledge your respective posts.
Ana: Congrats on doing ‘trades’ on H products for quite some time. I have yet to stick to those only & make my religion for those exclusively. Easier,I guess; just like how Ray-Kitchener & Wayne does often with Oil ETFs. Another person who does that (missing for quite sometime here) is JanM or Jan Mohammad – He/She trades around HXU/HXD only.
Slava: Thx.
About kids – there are pros & cons but I always wanted them & feel blessed to have them around me, happy & healthy – touch wood!
You can have kids too in your apartment – apply to become foster parent. Mind you all your freedom will be gone. Instead of you complaining, will have to be prepared to listen & handle those coming at you everyday.
Know a Padre of a church – he and his wife along with their own 4 kids fostered many other kids along. The couple is now in thier late 60s. When I see them all toggether every once in a while at some gathering makes me think about ‘real’ giving.
Wish you the very best as well.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:49 pm
and he keeps saying what beautiful and smart children we could have together.. of course he has no clue about what it takes to raise kids. And my work days are never less than 14-15 hours per day plus commute time.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:51 pm
NTR
gmsa, re 124 – well, if I were to have a kid I’d like to try to give birth to one.. not too old yet at 34
Magnificent Michael could be the sperm donor ..lol..
April 17th, 2012 at 3:56 pm
I covered my pcln short too early obviously.. missed out on $400.. oh well. It was a very good day today between fcx, gmcr and pcln – can’t complain at all. I even squeezed a couple of small cog and cmg shorts throughout the day.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:57 pm
I did make one big mistake – was trying to buy 100 apple shares in the morning, didnt’ get filled and didn’t move up my bid. So that was not good.
April 17th, 2012 at 3:59 pm
kay, did you sell your fcx?
April 17th, 2012 at 4:03 pm
NTR
Slava,
re.#124, 126:
Oops! Sorry, could have put it in a different & better way. Did not mean to offend you in anyways.
Quite an example to show one can’t mix busy trading while talking about these serious and personal topics.
Yes, nothing else would complete the womanhood more than being the biological mother. I’m sure that time will come soon too.
All the best.
April 17th, 2012 at 4:06 pm
Slava: Yes and didn’t buy back, hope its the right decision. Bought some TZA and made some $$$. TNA is far away from 4 MA eventhough I was told these etfs can stay for extended time from the 4 MA, anyway still holding. Also sold CCO, SNC.
April 17th, 2012 at 4:06 pm
kam #49
Not sure if this applies to your tax problem but is useful info.
If I recall correctly, nearly 1/2 million cases of tax fraud by identity theft in USA.
4 minute video (after the commercial)
google: “Tax Fraud Takes Many Forms – CNBC April 17 2012″
or try this link:
video.cnbc.com/gallery/?video=3000084640
I hope this is not your case, because it can be nasty.
April 17th, 2012 at 4:11 pm
Ana
you want my take on this market.
ok lets start by this…
since 2010 april has been the top of the market.
so is this year going to repeat itself. 5 really hope not give us just a tad more. pls
On a weekly chart
MACD longterm (12,26,9) have all confirmed the end for this rally.
now if you look at all 4 indices
Nasdaq should reach 150MA
Dow should reach 200Ma
Russel should reach down to 150MA
SPX should reach down to 200MA
I don’t want to give a number because as time goes by the value of the MA will have changed.
but for the time being the daily chart have all bounced higher. so we could see a retest of the highs before we pullback in bear territory.
April 17th, 2012 at 4:21 pm
Slava: FWIW…MM emailed technical analysis last week and said market is toppiing, today he called and said to get out of ARC Res, div 6% or put stoploss. I know a lot of people here do not use MM but we have been lucky so far, slow and steady return. Anyway since October he was always in the buyiing mode now his tune has changed. Also looking at Tony’s post above just confirmed everything.
April 17th, 2012 at 4:25 pm
Micheal
how did you know it was time to enter into uranium stocks?
uuu +12 dml +18%
hope you took your profits.
April 17th, 2012 at 4:33 pm
#133-Tony Markets
http://www.seasonal-charts.com/saisonalitaet.html#pos04
April 17th, 2012 at 5:22 pm
Kam,
re.#49:
Issues with TD and the phantom T5 that they issued:
Sorry to hear that.
Many eons ago when I was a brand new immigrant to this country & barely had couple of K left in the checking bank a/c (not a joint a/c) and was actively looking for a job in my profession while surviving on my saved money brought from my home country, one late evening got back from 12hr job search, interviews etc. to happily find 12 messages in my voice mail. Was ecstatic to find these many voicemails -thinking that employers found my resumes & interviews great- but they all turned out to be from TD Canada Trust – my bank branch.
And as I listened through the 1st message & to the next one, the tone of the people leaving messages got more tensed & harsh and at the end almost scolding for something that I had no clue about until I rushed to that branch just before they were to close that eve.
Upon investigation & probing from my side while not allowing the branch manager & one teller to leave for the day, turned out that someone had personally deposited 20k cash (by walking in to the branch) in my chkng a/c and then within few days purchased 28k worth of govt. bonds! My balance was -ve, hence the harassing messges at home & scolding over the voice mails.
So at two diff. times & dates two different tellers made two diff. transactions through my a/c without my knowledge. And trust me, my full name won’t match with anyone in Canada even today – how did it happen? They were clueless. Even SIN was not close enough between that guy & me.
Now suddenly they were very aplologetic and were glad that I forced them NOT to let close the branch without resolving my problem. No goodwill gesture or anything just plain old ‘sorry’. Got them to correct all & give me a letter stating actual balance & past 30 days transaction and then the print out on my passbook.
Went home that night terrified & next day AM my 1st business was to close my a/c with TDCT. Opened a/c with another bank…cause I didn’t want to take any chance with my money (when you have very little left it is very precious) let alone waste my time with those pigs investigating while losing precious time to look for the job in my own profession.
I didnot know anyone in this country so who would give me shelter, food, transit pass, phones, faxes etc. if the bank screws up again & my money is locked during an investigation? I still remember, I could not sleep that night in fear of ‘what if’ scenario.
I’m sure you are definitely in this situation. But risks are similar if you stick to the same bank and/or branch. Trend is your friend – if they have done something repeatedly & the themselves have no clue or can’t explain to you with guranteed assurances, why not quit on them? There ARE other banks too waiting for your business.
My suggestion, be extremely defensive & get everything on paper by walking into the branch & on the spot from the branch manager. And also record the conversation over your cellphone -if feel really pissed. Escalate to CRA higher-ups. Fax them this document.
Keep record of all the conversations with names their titles, phone nos. including extension nos., dates & their commitments. Also, check with your home insurance policy if you’re covered under ID Theft insurance.
I wish you a swifter & definite outcome.
April 17th, 2012 at 5:28 pm
Kam,
re.#137
Typo…should read “I’m sure you are definitely NOT in this situation” in the 3rd para. from bottom.
April 17th, 2012 at 5:58 pm
Hi Tony. Re# 135, I still maintain that I know nothing. I don’t follow DML (I rarely look at small caps), but UUU seemed like a good bet (moving up from a double bottom along with bullish candlestics). No, I didn’t sell but may do so tomorrow. We’ll see if greed is good!
Michael (note spelling!).
April 17th, 2012 at 6:05 pm
gmsa, re “Many eons ago when I was a brand new immigrant to this country”.. just curious – where are you from?
April 17th, 2012 at 6:45 pm
Slava
For someone who has only been here for 15 years, you write English better than the people born here (me included). Do you have an accent?
April 17th, 2012 at 6:45 pm
CMG is reporting earnings on Thursday, if it runs up into Thursday I may actually short some and hold through the annoucement.. with P/E of 63 it’s the most expensive restaurant in the USA. The results would have to be beyond stellar to keep up the share price in the current stratosphere..
April 17th, 2012 at 6:46 pm
mick, yes, a sexy accent (Wayne to confirm since I spoke with him on the phone once..lol)
April 17th, 2012 at 6:52 pm
mick, thanks for complimenting my English (in no way my command of English is better than yours.. you are funny
)- it used to be much better when I subsribed to the Economist but I manage.
April 17th, 2012 at 7:00 pm
Mick,
Yes. That’s absolutely true!! Made my borscht curdle!
April 17th, 2012 at 7:05 pm
Slava/Wayne
Well I think I want (or maybe need) to hear this voice, when Michael (not yours but Squamish Michael) comes into town one day we should all get together downtown.
April 17th, 2012 at 7:05 pm
Wayne, lol.. I’m really laughing out loud. Speaking of borscht, I made a delicious batch of it on the weekend (with beef). “Magnificent Michael” had three bowls of it in a row – he says it helps him with his performance.
April 17th, 2012 at 7:06 pm
his skiing performance
April 17th, 2012 at 7:11 pm
mick, sounds good.. as much as I’d like to remain a mystery woman my desire to meet you and Michael is greater. Plus I’d love to make new friends and I think we could be great friends.
April 17th, 2012 at 7:14 pm
Have you seen a commercial on bnn in which a 12 year-old boy is describing how he is making all kinds of money for his Mom using advice obtained through Vector Vest? ..lol.. I’m still trying to figure out if it’s meant to be humorous.
April 17th, 2012 at 7:16 pm
Okay, I have to attend a couple of meetings now, have a great evening everyone
April 17th, 2012 at 7:17 pm
Hi Slava and mick/nv. Well, I’m coming into town tomorrow for a wine and cheese at the Four Seasons. I can’t afford to dine at this fancy shmancy hotel (unless I sell my Uranium One!); Canaccord is doing an event there and I hope the wine is good. If not, I’ll be off to Slava’s for leftover borscht!
April 17th, 2012 at 7:19 pm
IBM After Hours: 202.25 -5.20 (-2.51%)
INTC After Hours: 27.69 -0.78 (-2.74%)
#133, Thank you tony for your comments. (Do you have a French accent?)
#136, Canuck2004, I thought you took off April and May to count your money!
April 17th, 2012 at 7:53 pm
# 153, Ana, nah, just going for a swim in my money bin…later!
April 17th, 2012 at 7:55 pm
Please see second chart “Dow Jones since 1983″ post # 153. May not always a bad month!
April 17th, 2012 at 8:56 pm
Canuck2004,
You mean # 136.
April 17th, 2012 at 9:37 pm
CCO.TO, UUU.TO, TA.TO
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-investor/investment-ideas/features/eye-on-equities/cameco-uranium-one-rally-on-bullish-jp-morgan-outlook/article2405117/
….. and comment.
April 17th, 2012 at 9:39 pm
Kam,
I feel for you.Hence, I will share my experience with you. Few years ago I opened a youth a/c at TD for my child. Deposited small amount several times ( probably total $2000 in business a/c but the teller had my youth a/c on screen, hence,deposited in my a/c & the business whose money it was never found money missing till I mentioned to TD.
Pls talk to TD if similar thing happened to you.
Alternatively, you ( your wife) can get aggresive & tell TD if they do not help you out you will tell Ellen Roseman of Toronto star to investigate.
I really wish you can get this resolved quickly
April 17th, 2012 at 9:44 pm
Kam
#158
Something went missing.
2nd line should say total amt $2000. When I complained I was told that somebody elses funds were deposited in my a/c bcs teller had not cleared the screen.
April 17th, 2012 at 9:46 pm
TechTalk
I am typing & diff things are appearing in Post 158 & 159. I am typing $100 & $2000 is appearing??
April 17th, 2012 at 10:26 pm
Michael
Wanted to see if you were paying attention.
and now I see where you saw that double bottom. I didn’t see that 150MA support what I was seeing on that chart was the double top in february and now maybe it makes a H&S pattern if it retest the 150MA.
April 17th, 2012 at 10:33 pm
Personally, I am way too tired to read this tonight – but for the night owls….
JEFF GUNDLACH’S EPIC PRESENTATION: ‘To QE3 Or Not To QE3, That Is The Question’
Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/jeff-gundlach-presentation-to-qe3-or-not-to-qe3-2012-4#ixzz1sM63mUe0
April 17th, 2012 at 10:34 pm
Kam,
Long story short. The teller had not cleared the screen after I left & next customers transaction was entered in my a/c. Hope this explains what I was trying to say as in previous some words disapeared. Pls ignore post 158 & 159.
April 17th, 2012 at 10:43 pm
Michael,
Good call on uranium stocks like slw. This time I missed out.
Tony,
Last mnth I bought slw & eqity collar which involved buying put. I had bought $30 apr put @ 65cents. After reporting sold at 15 cents as SLW went up. However, had I kept till today AM it was 80 cents. It was my inexperince & impatience. Maybe bigboys held it till AM today & sold today. Those holding on the weekend might loose more. Now this my 1st put I bought & one example does not negate your comments on post 37. The point I am making is sometimes its profitable to hold options in the last week as well, just i do not know how.LOL just my opinion
April 17th, 2012 at 10:50 pm
What is it today everybody is posting me articles.
Canuck I know the quote Buy when it snows sell with it goes.
I’m just saying not try and pick the very top as for the last two years some companies tops were made in the month of april
especially the cnq, su… usually Don mentions the calgary BBQ as the time to sell as for our Oilies topped earlier more in the month of april
Index April 2010 / May 2010 April2011 /MAy2011
Compq 2535 / 2493 2883 /2887
Dow 11252 / 11116 12875 /12876
Spx 1216 / 1213 1366 / 1370
in may the high was done in the first week of the month.
April 17th, 2012 at 10:57 pm
Muntazir
the big money is gone, they are playing the chump change for that extra bottle of XO for the w-e.
look at today option action ATH is trading at 10 and they are trading the april 13 calls.
in 3 days how can you think moving this one by 25? unless they report earnings and someone knows something we don’t know.
(Assuming they no nothing, what a crock this phrase.)
April 17th, 2012 at 10:58 pm
166
oops 25% and not 25 question mark
April 17th, 2012 at 11:19 pm
Muntazir
I don’t know all the details of your trade.
but why buy 30$ puts when the MA support was a close call between 150MA and 200MA and in march we retested the level before breaking through.
as of now I can sell that put for how much?
April 17th, 2012 at 11:32 pm
#165 Tony
Thing is the oils didn’t really do anything during the Feb. to May season so far, with May coming in a couple of weeks. Seasonals do not always work.
What I am trying to say in post # 136, by the two charts posted, is that if you take a 100 year reading on the Dow seasonals you will get one set of numbers, and if you break it down into shorter periods, you may get totally different numbers as the seasonal changes over time, for various reasons.
In other words, seasonals are a loose guide and not gospel… doesn’t always follow the trend. One has to be very flexible in interpreting data and not get too fixated on charts, seasonals, cycles, etc. trading is an art form, like cooking… it has a living soul.
The 1983 to 2010 seasonals posted for the Dow is during “bullish market years” where “the best seasonal selling point would have been in July, two months later than the previous chart indicated”. This January was bullish so I consider this year a bullish year…
In any case all this talk is academic…the charts show bullish, so I’m bullish, until they’re not. I was expecting a day like today yesterday and did not get it, so I was prepared to sell everything if today did not turn out like it did. The next couple days should be in the green, doesn’t have to be by much. IF not, the chances of rolling over are good. This week is a turning point.
Bollinger talked about “fuzzy logic” in one of my previous posts… mathematicians do not make the best traders, psychologist do. There are humans behind every trade, and humans always do the same thing as a group…sell in panics, buy at tops. One has interpret data loosly and not get too fixated by history, numbers or pivot points.
There’s an old saying in business: “eagles don’t flock”… one has to keep a good distance from the noise of the crowd. Sometimes it’s better not to watch BNN…lol
Sorry for preaching but my post is also for the others here, especially the newbies.
April 17th, 2012 at 11:38 pm
I get your stance Canuck
I was stating facts, as a warning sign, meant for people to have their stops ready just in case we repeat 2010 and 2011